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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units They say it is hard to beat the same team three times in a season. Well, how does that expression change when a team has already beaten them four times in a row, and are going for their fifth? It seems the Pelicans just have Sacramento's number. De'Aaron Fox averages 8 points under his average against New Orleans this season, as he is at 26 per game on the season, but only averages 18 against the Pelicans. The Pelicans also have the most to play for in this game, as they have the most realistic chance to stay in the six-seed with a win, while Sacramento would need many other results to fall their way to get up to 6th. Sacramento has not been the same team without Huerter and Monk, as they have lost three of their last four. Malik Monk was important to the Kings at crunchtime, and leaves Fox alone as the sole shot creator on the perimeter. Zion is healthy and is starting to show that potential he flashed years ago, and CJ McCollum is on fire, scoring at least 29 in his past four games. |
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04-11-24 | Jets v. Stars -143 | 3-0 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Both teams are entrenched in the postseason field in the Western Conference. Dallas owns the top spot in the Central Division while Winnipeg is dueling with the Avalanche to try and lock down home ice advantage in what will be a highly entertaining first-round series. The Stars have been rock solid at home, posting a 24-10-4 mark this season, though the Jets are one of the league’s elite road teams (23-13-3) so they won’t be rattled playing in front of a raucous crowd. Dallas has had the upper hand in this series of late, earning points in nine of the last 10 meetings. Look for the Stars to sweep the season series by prevailing in this contest. |
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04-11-24 | Knicks -135 v. Celtics | 118-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics do not have any motivation to win this game tonight. While the Knicks are fighting for the best possible spot in the playoff standings, Boston is already locked into the #1 spot in the Eastern Conference. With that in mind, the current designation of Porzingis and Horford as game-time decisions seems to be a bit translucent. You can almost guarantee that both will again be absent for this game given the intensity the Knicks will bring to this game and the Celtics not wanting to risk injury to their two big men. The Knicks' Brunson is playing himself into a likely top-five MVP finish with his play and he will do his best here to will the Knicks to win. I like the Knicks to bring the intensity and purpose of a team still fighting for the best seed and the Celtics being unable or even unwilling to match that intensity in a meaningless game for them. |
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04-11-24 | Astros v. Royals +1.5 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals have momentum after a solid start to 2024 and Singer has been impressive in his first two outings. The Astros aren't consistently producing at the plate and have been held to three or fewer runs in four of their last five games (prior to Wednesday's action). These Astros hitters haven't seen Singer since the 2022 season. Considering Brown's recent struggles, I feel confident the wrong team is favored. He may have better stuff tomorrow, but I'm not betting on that outcome. If the Royals get out to an early lead, the Astros will be leaving town with another series loss. |
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04-10-24 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -108 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Vegas Golden Knights will close their regular-season road schedule on Wednesday night when they face the host Edmonton Oilers for what could be a preview of a first-round playoff series in the Western Conference. It marks the final contest of a three-game road trip to forget for the defending Stanley Cup champions, who are chasing the Los Angeles Kings for third place in the Pacific Division and currently occupy the final wild-card spot in the West. Vegas (42-27-8, 92 points) started the trip by yielding six unanswered third-period goals in a 7-4 loss to the Arizona Coyotes on Friday, and it followed that up by blowing a 3-2, second-period lead in a 4-3 loss against the Vancouver Canucks on Monday. The potential good news for the Golden Knights is that they may not have to face reigning MVP Connor McDavid. McDavid, who is third in the league in points with 130 (31 goals, 99 assists), didn't practice on Tuesday because of a lower-body injury. However, the Oilers have a very deep team, with three other players (Draisaitl, Hyman, and Bouchard) ranked in the top 46 in points per game. |
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04-10-24 | Magic v. Bucks | 99-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tonight,we focus on Milwaukee, who comes in off a revenge battle on this court against Boston. That sets the table as the Bucks bring a 2-5 ATS ledger into this contest since the new year began in games when coming off a same-season revenger. It meshes with Milwaukee’s 1-5-1 ATS mark in home games after battling Boston. Tie it into Orlando’s Friday, sterling 46-26 ATS overall mark in all games this season and we're on the Magic tonight. |
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04-10-24 | Astros v. Royals +1.5 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Lugo has been outstanding in his two starts thus far, most importantly by keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding giving up extra-base hits. Brown has not been very good thus far, struggling with the strike zone and giving up 12 hits in just seven innings of work. Last year, Brown was roughed up by these same Royals including coughing up four home runs in his lone start against KC. The Royals have been getting exceptional pitching thus far with a team ERA under three and a team WHIP of 1.01. Lugo's ability to keep the ball on the ground will be key to victory here against an Astros team that has 16 home runs on the season heading into Tuesday night's game against KC. |
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04-10-24 | Mavs -3.5 v. Heat | 111-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami may have sent a message by updating their injury report right before the Atlanta game. Bam Adebayo, Terry Rozier, Kevin Love and Nikola Jovic were all added for minor injuries that were not previously listed. It is possible Miami will begin to prepare for the playoffs, and not put their best lineups on the floor for the final games. Miami cannot fall to the 9th spot, losses do not necessarily hurt them, and it is very unlikely they can jump all the way to six. The injury report may might be the first step in resting some of their stars down the stretch. Dallas is in the fifth spot in the West, but could fall to seventh with a disastrous finish. Dallas needs to hold on to their top six spot to ensure they are not in the Play-In Tournament. Matchup wise, Doncic and Irving are both healthy and their games have complimented each other recently. Dallas has ironed out their lineup with the two stars and role players that know their jobs every night. Dallas needs this one more and will cover the spread in Miami. |
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04-10-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox -110 | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles jumped all over Boston's pitching yesterday, scoring seven runs on 13 hits. They were 8-for-15 with runners in scoring position. The Red Sox scored one run in the bottom of the first but were held scoreless the rest of the afternoon, managing just two hits against SP Corbin Burnes and the O's bullpen. I'm anticipating a better performance by the home team today against Irvin, who didn't fare well against Boston last season, as 1B Triston Casas hit a three-run homer and 3B Rafael Devers went 2-for-4. The Orioles starter put nine runners on base in his 2024 debut versus the Royals, and I expect Boston to take advantage of these opportunities after yesterday's dud. Crawford is expected to go for Boston, which should be good news for Sox fans. He has allowed just five hits with 12 Ks in 10.2 combined innings this season and held Baltimore scoreless in his lone appearance against them last year (one hit with seven Ks in 6.0 IP on Sept. 30). He and the Red Sox bullpen (fourth in ERA and fifth in strikeouts) should perform well enough to quiet the Orioles' bats. |
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04-10-24 | Phillies -127 v. Cardinals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nola (1-1, 5.40 ERA) allowed seven runs, six earned, in 4 1/3 innings during a 12-4 loss to the Atlanta Braves on March 30. He rebounded as the Phillies blanked the host Washington Nationals 4-0 on Friday. Nola walked four batters in the blustery conditions but gave up only two hits over 5 2/3 innings. Nola went 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals last season. In his career, he is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 11 starts vs. St. Louis. Lance Lynn (0-0, 4.15 ERA) will make his third start of the season for the Cardinals. He threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers before a Southern California rainstorm cut short his March 30 start. In his second outing, Lynn served up three home runs to the Miami Marlins in 4 2/3 innings on Thursday, though the Cardinals won 8-5. He allowed four runs on eight hits in that contest. |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns -7 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Phoenix will be anxious to avenge a 138-111 beatdown at L.A. in January, knowing they are 13-6 SU and 12-7 ATS in games when avenging a loss of 25-plus points. That’s not good news for a group of paper clips who stand 5-12 ATS against foes with same season revenge on their minds from a loss of 20-plus points, including 0-5 ATS in the last five games – not to mention that Phoenix Suns are 12-2 ATS in Last Home Games they win outright, including 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge. Finally, Phoenix is 5-1 SUATS in this series when looking to avenge a same-season loss of 25-plus points, including 5-0 SUATS when the Clippers sport a winning record. |
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04-09-24 | Knicks -2.5 v. Bulls | 128-117 | Win | 100 | 32 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are trying to hang on for home court advantage in the postseason though in different forms. The Knicks showed grit rallying to down the Bucks after trailing by double digits at the half on the road Sunday but Brunson can’t carry the load by himself forever. Chicago won the meeting Friday night in their previous matchup and they have home court advantage going for them here. Injuries have taken a toll on the Bulls with LaVine and Williams out of the mix. Similarly, the Knicks lost Randle for the season but they have gotten production from DiVincenzo and Hart as part of their three-and-D wing players. New York has more at stake for themselves here and they find a way to pull out the win on the road. |
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04-09-24 | Phillies -127 v. Cardinals | 0-3 | Loss | -127 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia has won seven of the last eight head-to-head versus St Louis and the Phillies have won four of the last five played on the road at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals. Although Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler is 0-1, the right-hander has pitched very well in two outings allowing just one run in 12 innings pitched with 15 strikeouts and one walk. St Louis starting pitcher Sonny Gray will be making his season debut and will likely not pitch more than three to four innings. St Louis has struggled at the plate thus far with a team batting average of .222 and a .343 slugging percentage. The Cardinals OPS is just .643. Philadelphia is not that much better at this point, but the Phillies are higher in each of the three previous categories with a .229 team batting average, .358 slugging percentage and .675 OPS. |
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04-09-24 | Rangers -128 v. Islanders | 2-4 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When looking at the offenses throughout the last few games, the Rangers are scoring 4.6 goals in their last five games while the Islanders are averaging 3.0 goals in their previous four games. The ability to score on the power play shows a massive difference as the Rangers are fourth in hockey with a 26.4 power play percentage while the Islanders are down at 20th with a 20.4 power play percentage thus far. All in all, go with the New York Rangers to win this game. |
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04-09-24 | Marlins v. Yankees -186 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Yankees destroyed Jesus Luzardo, as both Juan Soto and Anthony Volpe took the Marlins’ lefty deep. The Yankees should be fired up to stay hot against another southpaw in A.J. Puk. It’s hard to trust Puk, who served as Miami’s closer for most of the 2023 season. He’s been pretty bad over his first two showings in 2024. Furthermore, the Marlins bullpen holds an ugly 6.11 ERA, whereas the Yankees’ relievers have recorded a 2.88 ERA so far this season. |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut -6.5 | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The UConn Huskies were the betting favorite throughout the tournament and now find themselves listed as 6.5-point favorites in the Championship Game. The Huskies have been dominant in their postseason run, as their closest contest was the 14-point win in the Final Four. All five starters scored 12 or more in that game, as they were led by their freshman Stephon Castle with 21 points, and big man Donovan Clingan (7-2, 280) contributed another 18 points and five rebounds. Tristen Newton is their First Team All-American Guard, he averages 14.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 6.2 APG as a 6'5 senior. Newton had 12 points and nine assists in the Final Four win. Cam Spencer is the best shooter on the team, the 6'4 senior guard has 98 made threes and is not far behind Newton in scoring with 14.4 PPG. Spencer has scored in double figures in every tournament game so far. Donovan Clingan is one of the rare players in the nation that can match up with Zach Edey and not give up much size, he is a 7'2, 280-pound sophomore center getting 13.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG. Alex Karaban is a 6'8 sophomore getting 13.5 PPG and can stretch the floor with his jumper. Stephon Castle is a 6'6 freshman getting 11.0 PPG and is coming off the team-high in the Final Four. Conn is the top overall ranked team in KenPom. They also have the top-rated offense in terms of efficiency and rank 4th in defensive efficiency. They play even slower than Purdue does, ranking only 328th in the nation in pace of play Finally, Big East teams are 8-1 ATS while Big 10 teams are 0-6 ATS L18Y in championship contests. |
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04-08-24 | Dodgers -130 v. Twins | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units James Paxton is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins. Last season, he met the Twins once as a member of the Red Sox and threw 6.1 frames of a three-run ball in a winning effort. On the other side, Bailey Ober emerged victorious in his lone career start against the Dodgers. Last year, he held the Blue Crew to one earned run on six hits. I’m backing the Dodgers because of their scary lineup. The Dodgers lead the majors in home runs (15) and are third in OPS (.816). They are hitting a strong .298/.373/.477 against the right-handed pitchers, and it’s hard to trust Bailey Ober in this matchup. The Dodgers are 12-1 in their last 13 meetings with the Twins. |
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04-08-24 | Mets v. Braves -1.5 | 8-7 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Braves are far and away the better team and should be able to dominate against a struggling New York Mets team. We do not know what is going to be coming out of Julio Teheran while Charlie Morton has been dominating throughout his old age. This Braves team has been the best offensive team throughout the beginning stages of the season and should be able to continue doing extremely well. Ronald Acuna Jr. is 4-for-6 with a home run while Marcell Ozuna has a 1.024 OPS in 53 at-bats. All in all, go with the Atlanta Braves to cover the run line in this game. |
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04-08-24 | Penguins v. Maple Leafs -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Penguins have been rolling and look to pull off the upset and provide great odds in the process. The problem is that the Maple Leafs have been one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and they look to control this game from the first period. The Maple Leafs, who average 3.62 goals per game, should pile on the goals with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Maple Leafs should limit the Penguins' offense with T.J. Brodie, Jake McCabe, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net. The Maple Leafs should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice. |
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04-08-24 | Marlins v. Yankees -142 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees have won seven of their last nine games. They are playing well offensively, scoring at least five runs in three of their last four games. They will play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against left-handers and they’ve had a lot of success against Luzardo, who gave up five runs in his first two starts. He is 0-2 in two starts against the Yankees, giving up 10 runs in those starts. With Miami also having the sixth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Yankees in this game. The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 games. Even though they played well offensively in their last game, they haven’t looked good on that end so far and scored only 11 runs in their previous four games. Even though Cortez has been shaky on the mound so far, giving up seven runs in two starts, expect the Marlins to struggle offensively in this game because they are batting under .200 against left-handers and Cortez is backed up by one of the best bullpens in the league, so even if they get to him, the damage will be minimized. Go with New York to cover the money line. |
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04-07-24 | Stars +120 v. Avalanche | 7-4 | Win | 120 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dallas Stars are a determined squad. They have won eight of their last nine games and can build their lead to five points ahead of the Avalanche with a win in this one. A win would all but secure the division considering only four games remain after this one. The Colorado Avalanche are only 2-4 in their last six games. The Stars have been outstanding in the defensive end and in the net. They are a better defensive squad than the Avalanche and this one will have the emotion of a playoff game. The Stars have allowed two or fewer goals in seven of their last ten games. The Stars also have no issues on the road, collecting the win in four of their last five road bouts. |
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04-07-24 | Kings -7.5 v. Nets | 107-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn is playing for the second straight night here and have nothing to play for at this point after being eliminated from playoff contention. The Nets have sputtered offensively and have been less than inspiring all season long. Sacramento has fallen into the play-in tournament field and hope to try and push back into the actual guaranteed playoff field but they need to win some games plus get some help. The losses of Huerter and Monk have taken perimeter shooting options out of the mix. Still, Sacramento has something to play for and the rest advantage in this contest. Look for the Kings to come up with the victory in this contest. |
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04-07-24 | Bulls +8 v. Magic | 98-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls take the court in Orlando amid a battle with Atlanta as both teams look to avoid the 10-hole in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They’ll do so with a healthy dose of same-season triple revenge on its mind, with Orlando trying to do its best to stay focused after coming off Friday’s visit to Charlotte, where the Hornets were nesting with an identical same-season triple revenge motive. The question is whether or not you can blame the Magic for not being fully focused here tonight. With the Bulls bringing a brawny 10-3-1 ATS mark in games with same-season triple revenge from Game 70 out and Orlando 0-3 SUATS in games in the second half of opposing same-season triple revengers. |
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04-07-24 | Rockets v. Mavs -8 | 136-147 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It appears as though the pressure has hurt the young talented roster of the Houston Rockets as they have lost four straight while attempting to move into 10th place in the Western Conference. The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in four of the last five. Dallas is closing in on securing a top six spot in the Western Conference to avoid the play-in round of the postseason. Dallas has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games. Dallas has the sixth best offense in scoring, averaging 118.2 points per day and is 11th in field goal shooting percentage while 10th in 3-point shooting percentage. Dallas has won nine of its last 10 straight up and that includes defeating the Rockets last week 125-107 in Houston, while covering the spread in the process. |
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04-07-24 | Marlins v. Cardinals -129 | 10-3 | Loss | -129 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is 27th in team ERA, 28th in WHIP and 25th in batting average allowed. The Marlins are not much better at the plate, sitting 25th in team batting average, 26th in on base percentage and 27th in slugging percentage. St Louis is slightly better on the mound with the 18th-best ERA. Miami starter Max Meyer had a solid outing in his season debut allowing two runs in five innings including serving up one home run but the Marlins lost nonetheless. Kyle Gibson had a strong debut with St Louis on the mound. Gibson gave up two runs in seven innings to beat the San Diego Padres 6-2 last Monday. Miami has lost eight straight to open the season and the Marlins are 1-9 over the last 10 games played on the road versus St Louis. St Louis has won four of its last six. |
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04-07-24 | Mariners v. Brewers -112 | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Brewers have won five of their last six games. They are playing well offensively and scored 12 runs in their last three games. They will play well offensively in this game because they’re batting over .270 against right-handers and Hancock didn’t look good on the mound in his first start, giving up three runs in five innings. With Seattle’s bullpen also struggling during their slump, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game. The Mariners have lost three straight games. They are struggling offensively, scoring seven runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they’re barely batting over .200 against right-handers and Rea looked good on the mound in his first start, giving up only one run. With Milwaukee’s bullpen also playing well, they won’t have trouble keeping Seattle’s offense in check. Go with Milwaukee to cover the money line. |
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04-06-24 | Alabama v. Connecticut -11.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 107 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Huskies will cover another large spread. They're 4-0 ATS in the tournament and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall. While not usually high-tempo (315th in schedule-adjusted tempo), they can adapt to a faster pace, which will be required against the Crimson Tide (9th in adjusted tempo). They scored 80, 87, and 99 points in three games against more defensive-minded Xavier (35th in adjusted tempo) and UNC (42nd in tempo) squads. Alabama will find this matchup challenging, as Connecticut holds its opponents to 30.9 percent from beyond the arc and discourages them from taking a lot of threes (33.2 percent of their total shot attempts). It also ranks 2nd nationally in two-point defense and 1st in points per shot allowed at the rim. The Tide live and die with a rim-and-three-based offense — I bet on the latter outcome in the Final Four. |
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04-06-24 | NC State +9.5 v. Purdue | 50-63 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is such an intriguing matchup. You have the Cinderella Wolfpack going up against a Purdue team riding the redemption train fast down the track. The Boilermakers come into this game with all the accolades and the best player in the tournament in Edey. The Wolfpack comes into this game with a defense that has held every team in the tournament to under 40 percent shooting including a season-low 32 percent by the Blue Devils in the South Region final. The Wolfpack are the hottest team in the tournament with nine straight wins and have been led by Burns and his ability to score in the paint and find his teammates in passes from the post. I think Purdue will get to the tournament final game on Monday night but I don't think it will be easy. Giving the Wolfpack nearly ten points is too much for a team that has covered every game this tournament and has been an underdog in three of the four games. The Wolfpack have enough bigs to throw at Edey to at least make him uncomfortable. They are not going to stop him but they can at least make him work. While Purdue was one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the regular season, they have not been as efficient in the tournament and now face an NC State team that has been very good against the 3-point shot in the tourney, holding teams to 24 percent shooting. Burns is crafty enough in the paint that he will get his points, even with Edey's large presence looming. This one will come down to the wire. I have faith in NC State's ability to defend and keep pace with Purdue. |
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04-06-24 | Cavs +4.5 v. Lakers | 97-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Interesting matchup between two teams that appear to be unraveling at the wrong time of the season. For the Cavs, much of it has to do with injuries to All-Star guards Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Both players were expected back at press time when the Cavs hosted the 76ers a week ago Friday, and it’s safe to say the team needs Mitchell like blood as Cleveland was 11-13 this season sans his services. With it, the young Cavaliers bring an 8-4 ATS road dog log into this contest in games with a revenge chip on its shoulder. Meanwhile, the Lakers return to La La Land following a six game road trip across the county with a lousy 5-13 SUATS mark at home coming off the three-plus game road soiree. Finally, Cleveland is 11-3 ATS as a road dog in this series with a greater than .400 win percentage, including 3-0 SUATS during the second half of the season. |
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04-06-24 | Panthers v. Bruins -114 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bruins are closing the season strong and looking to grab the top spot in the NHL yet again this season. The Bruins will turn to goalie Linus Ullmark against the Panthers in the hopes of finishing the regular season at 4-0 vs. the Panthers this season. The Bruins have covered the spread in two of the three games against Florida this season. Boston should have the advantage given the number of shots the Panthers allow on net, ranked 29th in shots allowed this season, and the Bruins' ability to convert at a high percentage, ranked sixth in the NHL in shooting percentage. Florida has been stumbling as of late and seems resigned to taking the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference which will still result in home-ice advantage. The Bruins' recent play suggests that they are anxious to get home-ice advantage in multiple rounds this season. |
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04-06-24 | Marlins v. Cardinals -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This Marlins team is in absolute shambles right now, so there’s just no way that I can back them in this spot. Steven Matz gets the nod, and the southpaw has owned this Miami roster throughout his career. It’s a slim 31-at-bat sample size, but he’s limited them to a slash line of .194/.219/.258. Furthermore, Matz looked really solid in his season debut against the Dodgers, so I think he may parlay that performance into another respectable start against the floundering Fish. I believe the Red Birds have the edge in starting pitching, the bullpen, and offensively. Let’s not overthink this one, let’s lock in St. Louis at home. |
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04-06-24 | Lightning +100 v. Penguins | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The power play numbers could not be in more opposite directions as the Penguins are 31st in the NHL with 14.7% of their power plays ending in goals while the Lightning leads all of hockey with a 29.1 power play percentage thus far. These defenses have been doing very similar but there is a slight difference as Tampa Bay is giving up 2.2 goals in their previous five games while Pittsburgh is allowing 2.5 goals in their last four games played. With Andrei Vasilevskiy in the net, go with the Tampa Bay Lightning to pull off the victory. |
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04-05-24 | Red Sox -102 v. Angels | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams come into this game with momentum as they each earned road sweeps in their early week series. Neither team beat a juggernaut as the Red Sox swept the A’s while the Angels swept the winless Marlins but you take your wins where you can get them. Boston has been solid so far this season and they have the advantage on the bump in this contest with Crawford looking sharp in his debut. Meanwhile, Canning was roughed up by the Orioles in his season debut and the Red Sox are hitting the ball well right now. Look for the Red Sox to ding Canning and put this one in the win column. |
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04-05-24 | Kings v. Celtics -10 | 100-101 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have been dominant at home, they haven't lost on their home floor in over two months, and their whole rotation is healthy. Boston does not appear to be resting any players yet, as every starter played at least 29 minutes last game. Boston is taking on Sacramento on the second game in two nights for the Kings. Boston just had that similar set up against the Thunder. Oklahoma City played the 76ers, then the Celtics in two nights, and by the time they got to Boston, the Celtics sent them home with a 35 point loss. Sacramento is dealing with injuries, their offense is designed to surround Fox and Sabonis with shooters, but both Huerter and Monk are out. Monk was one of their top scorers, and gave life to their second unit which will now be missing. Porzingis can battle Sabonis inside, last time Sabonis played the Celtics he only finished with 13 points. Similarly, Fox will be thrown off his game by the defensive pressure of Holiday. This leaves Tatum and Brown to focus on offense and dominate the Sacramento wings. |
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04-05-24 | Thunder +5.5 v. Pacers | 112-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pacers 3-7 ATS as a favorite against Western Conference opposition this season. Indiana got lucky with back-to-backers against lifeless Brooklyn before tonight’s clash, but if they take on the role of favorite, be aware that Oklahoma City is 8-3 ATS as a road dog in this series, including 7-1 ATS in games in which the Pacers sport a sub .600 win percentage. We can add a pinch of revenge to the mix as the Thunder dropped a 10-point decision to Indiana as 5.5-point home chalk three weeks ago. The bottom line is both teams appear firmly entrenched in the playoffs, but OKC is still battling for the top spot in the West. |
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04-05-24 | Magic -11.5 v. Hornets | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though they'll be on the road, the Magic will dominate this matchup and come away with the cover and win. Charlotte has been one of the league's worst teams of late and with an injury report that is nearing the double-digits, it's difficult to imagine them having the depth to compete in this one. Orlando leads with their defense and against a Charlotte team whose leading assist-man is averaging just over three a game, the Magic will have no issues lowing them down. Add in plenty of capable scoring and no notable injuries to worry about, means Orlando will dominate. The Magic have covered the spread in five-straight in the series, as they extend that in this one. |
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04-05-24 | Rangers -130 v. Red Wings | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York holds the top spot in the Metropolitan Division while Detroit is fighting to earn the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. The Rangers have been hot of late with eight wins in their last 10 games while the Red Wings had dropped four straight before downing Tampa Bay. Detroit has the rest advantage as they had three days off after the win over the Lightning. That will at least give them a puncher’s chance but the Rangers have the advantage between the pipes, defensively and in the special teams departments. That’s too much for the Red Wings, even on home ice here. |
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04-05-24 | Mets v. Reds -117 | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets will send left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 3.86 ERA) to the mound in the series opener at Cincinnati. Quintana allowed six hits and two runs over 4 2/3 innings and took a 3-1 loss against the Milwaukee Brewers on March 29 in the season opener. In his career against the Reds, Quintana is 5-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 14 games (13 starts). The Reds will counter with Hunter Greene (0-0, 3.86), also making his second start of the season. The right-hander was the victim of some shoddy fielding behind him in the Washington Nationals' 7-6 comeback win on Saturday. Greene allowed five hits and just two runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out seven and walking four in a no-decision. |
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04-05-24 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -146 | 3-0 | Loss | -146 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees will attempt to keep Toronto's offense quiet by starting former Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman (1-0, 0.00 ERA). He made his Yankee debut Saturday and allowed three unearned runs on four hits in six innings of a 5-3 win at Houston. Stroman is making his second start against the Blue Jays since they traded him to the New York Mets in 2019. He faced them on Aug. 30, 2022 for the Chicago Cubs and allowed one run in five innings of a no-decision. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 6.23), who allowed three runs in 4 1/3 innings Saturday against the Rays, starts for Toronto. He is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) against the Yankees. |
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04-04-24 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Clippers | 100-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Clippers defeated the Nuggets the last time these teams met, that snapped an eight-game winning streak for Denver against Los Angeles. That included three straight victories in Los Angeles. Look for the Nuggets to be favored by three. Denver is playing exceptionally well, winning 17 of their last 21. That has vaulted them to the top of the Western Conference standings. Meanwhile, the Clippers saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, but they are just 5-5 in their last 10, including losing three straight games at home. |
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04-04-24 | Warriors v. Rockets +4 | 133-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Rockets are performing like gold at the right time of the season and we’re not keen on stepping in front with a Warriors team that was on a 5-6 SU slide. Golden State doesn’t land in a money-making role either: The City enters off a same-season double-revenge contest at home against the Mavericks, and they’re just 8-13-1 ATS this campaign in games when coming off same-season revengers, including 3-9-1 ATS versus foes with winning records. Finally, Houston is 15-4 ATS with same-season double revenge versus .500 or greater opponents from game 68 out, including 5-0 ATS at home. |
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04-04-24 | Avalanche -154 v. Wild | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wild are having a rocky season as their offense has stepped up, scoring 3.03 goals per game. Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek have scored 67 goals and 77 assists to lead the top line but the rest of the offense has stepped up as well. Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello, and Marco Rossi have combined for 57 goals and 96 assists while defensemen Brock Faber and Jonas Brodin have added 14 goals and 51 assists from the point to open up the offense. The offense has stepped up but the defense has struggled, allowing 3.14 goals per game. Jonas Brodin and Brock Faber have combined for 8.1 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net with ease. In addition, goaltender Filip Gustavsson has struggled with a .900 save percentage and a 3.04 goals-against average on 1192 shots with -4.2 goals saved above average. |
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04-04-24 | 76ers +3 v. Heat | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat have won three straight games, but two of those were against bottom of the league teams in Portland and Washington. The Heat will likely still be without Tyler Herro, and the 76ers are still unsure if Maxey will play. As for the 76ers, it looks as if they want to use the end of the season to get Joel Embiid back into playing shape. He was visibly fatigued last game, but he was still 12-12 from the line, and had a strong showing in just his first game back. Expect him to slowly return back to his normal form, which is dominating on the inside. Miami is small defensively, Adebayo is a tough defender, but is just 6'9 and gives up plenty of size to the 7'0, 280-pound Embiid. Even without Maxey, Philly still has perimeter players that can step up and score including Hield and Oubre. Oubre has been particularly hot lately, and has welcomed the bigger role by scoring at least 25 points in each of his last two games. Duncan Robinson has been cold lately, and Nikola Jovic doesn't do much in the starting lineup, Philly will look to steal a game here, and stay out of the 9-seed. |
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04-04-24 | Indiana State -3 v. Seton Hall | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Conventional wisdom suggests that I go with Seton Hall in the championship game. They have done a much better job on the defensive end overall than the Sycamores in the tournament and have held the opposition to nearly 15 points less per game than Indiana State. The Sycamores feel like a microcosm of the current state of college basketball: they play fast, shoot the three often, and have a stretch five capable of scoring in the paint and on the perimeter. That fast play has led them to average over 90 points per game in the NIT. The difference for the Sycamores is, that despite playing so fast, they rarely turn the ball over. They get up more shots than the opposition and they shoot the ball at a higher rate than the opposition. This team has been playing with a chip on its collective shoulders since being snubbed for the NCAA Tournament. They are playing with that mid-level conference edge and they will be playing in front of a mostly Sycamore-driven crowd. Remember, the Sycamores come into this game at 19-1 in the state of Indiana this season. |
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04-04-24 | Marlins v. Cardinals -145 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Cardinals began their season by going 3-4 in California against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, the reeling Marlins lost all seven games of their opening homestand against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Los Angeles Angels. St. Louis starter, Lynn (0-0, 0.00 ERA) threw four scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start of the season on Saturday. He allowed four hits, walked one and struck out five before a rain delay cut short his outing. The Marlins will counter Lynn with left-hander Ryan Weathers (0-1, 6.75 ERA). He is part of a Miami rotation that is missing injured starting pitchers Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. Weathers allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings during a 9-3 loss to the Pirates during his season debut on Saturday. He needed 94 pitches to get 12 outs. I love betting on teams in their home openers when it makes sense. This one makes sense. |
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04-03-24 | Oilers v. Stars -115 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Edmonton is trying to chase down Vancouver for the Pacific Division top spot though they are solidly in second place in the division, five points ahead of Vegas with a game in hand. The Oilers have picked up points in each of their last four games but this is going to be a challenge. Dallas has won seven straight games, outscoring the opposition 29-11 in that stretch, and they allowed two goals or less in six of those contests. The Stars are rolling right now and they are at home, plus they have a little extra rest in their back pocket. Look for the Stars to win a tight one as they make it eight straight wins. |
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04-03-24 | Raptors v. Wolves -15.5 | 85-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Timberwolves will dominate en route to a win and a cover in this one, as they take care of business at home. Both teams are coming off of a game on Tuesday night and Minnesota's depth, as compared to nearly ten injured for Toronto, will power them through. Beyond that, the Raptors come in without a win in their last ten games, with those struggles carrying out into this one. Minnesota is one of the league's best and most efficient teams on both ends of the court and there's no doubt that they'll dominate at home, where they have one of best marks in the NBA. Toronto has only covered the spread once in their last ten games and they certainly won't make it a second time in this one. |
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04-03-24 | Rockies v. Cubs -1.5 | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Rockies have gotten off to a forgettable start to the 2024 season, as they have dropped five of their first six games and three in a row while allowing an average of 8.2 runs per contest. After finishing a franchise-worst 59-103 last season, the 1-5 mark this year ties them with the 2005 and 2008 Colorado teams for the worst start in Rockies history.Hoping to start the turnaround for the Rockies is Wednesday's scheduled starter, Cal Quantrill (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who gave up five runs in five innings to the Diamondbacks in the second game of the season. In five career appearances against the Cubs, Quantrill is 1-2 with an 8.22 ERA. Cubs and Counsell will hand the ball first to left-hander Luke Little -- 0-0, 0.00 ERA in two games covering two innings this season -- in what likely will be a bullpen game for the pitching staff on Wednesday. Little pitched a scoreless ninth inning Tuesday. |
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04-03-24 | Thunder v. Celtics -8.5 | 100-135 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics take to the floor looking to even the score from a 127-123 loss at OKC in early January knowing they are 7-3 SUATS this century in this series when playing with revenge from a loss of 7 or fewer points, including 3-0 SUATS during the second half of the campaign. One problem, though, is Boston returning home from a six-game road trek, which would normally put them in ‘play against’ terrain, but the feeling here is there are too many mitigating circumstances working against the Thunder. We told you the Thunder was in a knock-down, drag-out fight for the West lead with the Nuggets and T’wolves and OKC shows up tonight in Beantown playing its third of five straight road games. The Thunder is also in the middle of a same-season revenge sandwich, last night at Philadelphia, and at Indiana on Friday. |
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04-03-24 | Red Sox -155 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Red Sox starters were stunning through the first five games of the season, combining to allow just five runs (four earned) across 28 innings, good for an ERA of 1.29. Of the five pitchers who started, Pivetta (0-1, 1.50 ERA) was among three who worked six innings, while the other two lasted five. Opponents mustered 17 hits against the starting rotation, which racked up 37 strikeouts against just one walk. Pivetta is 5-0 with a glistening 0.82 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against Oakland. Fellow right-hander Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.20 ERA) will oppose Pivetta today after allowing five runs (four earned) and seven hits in five innings against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. Stripling was tagged with the loss, and he hasn't picked up a win since Oct. 1, 2022, while pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays. |
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04-02-24 | Clippers -1.5 v. Kings | 95-109 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With the way that Sacramento's offense isn't producing right now, this is a tough matchup. Especially without Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, two key pieces for their rotation. Los Angeles' defense has been better lately and should hold the Kings under 110 points as most teams do these days. So, it'll be on the third-best offensive rating in the league to score at least 112 points to beat the spread. That should be an easy task, especially since the Clippers are third in three-point percentage against a Kings defense that's 29th against threes. Los Angeles is averaging 119.0 points per game against Sacramento this season. Take the Clippers to cover. |
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04-02-24 | Mavs +1.5 v. Warriors | 100-104 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Dallas Mavericks continue to dazzle. They have won five straight road bouts and have also earned the win in nine of their last ten games. Golden State is also winning but their last two games were against the Hornets and Spurs. The Mavericks are 2-0 against the Warriors this season. They are the stronger offensive team, averaging 117.9 points per 100 possessions compared to 116.9 points per 100 by Golden State. The Mavericks' defense has been incredible, making them difficult to beat these days. They have conceded an average of only 101.5 points in their last five games. Four of the Mavericks' last five wins have been by double digits. |
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04-02-24 | Red Sox -142 v. A's | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alex Wood's first start was horrible, and in this start (in the same building), he has an offense that should be even tougher. Oakland's bullpen can't be trusted to stop any bleeding. Expect Boston's offense to have a great night. Bello is facing an offense that was MLB's worst a year ago and didn't make any significant moves that project to change that for 2024. Through four games, the Athletics have drawn walks at a decent rate, and that's about it. Bello didn't issue a single walk in his first start, a strong winning effort. |
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04-02-24 | Georgia v. Seton Hall -4.5 | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates have played this tournament like a team that is trying to establish a winning identity and culture in their program. The Pirates, after sneaking past St. Joe's in the opening round, have dominated each of their last two games and I expect that to continue on Tuesday night. The Pirates are hitting nearly 50 percent of their shots and 40 percent of their three-point shots. More importantly, the Pirates' assist numbers are on the rise in the NIT which indicates an offense that is clicking. The Bulldogs are playing well but also playing with little or no margin for error. They have won their three games by a total of 10 points and are giving up nearly 72 points per game in the NIT. I like the Pirates to roll here and get into the NIT finals. |
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04-02-24 | Rockets +8 v. Wolves | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Houston stood 7-2 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season defeat of 20-plus points (lost 111-90 here two months ago, and 122-95 at home during the first week of January). Minnesota also takes the court off a pair of weekenders, currently owning a 0-2 SUATS mark in this series when playing with a greater than .590 win percentage. The Timberwolves are wedged into a tight one here, coming off same-season revengers against the Bulls and Nuggets, with more get-even games on deck with the Raptors (4-14 SU and 6-11 ATS before Toronto) and the Suns. Since March rolled around, Houston was 12-1 SUATS in their last thirteen games. Finally, playing on any .500-plus conference road team with same season double-revenge from a loss, the last by 20-plus points, if they are facing a greater than .666 foe is 15-3 ATS. |
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04-02-24 | Capitals +120 v. Sabres | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Capitals have won three of their last four road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring six goals in their last two road games. They have also played well on special teams, converting 21 percent of their power play opportunities. The Sabres are good at killing penalties, but they’re not playing well defensively, giving up 11 goals in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Capitals in this game. The Sabres have lost four of their last six games and two of their last three home games. They have struggled offensively, scoring seven goals in their last three games. They have also struggled on special teams, converting 15 percent of their power play opportunities. The Capitals have killed over 79 percent of their penalties and they’re playing well defensively, giving up eight goals in their last three road games, so expect them to keep Buffalo’s offense in check. Go with Washington to cover the money line. |
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04-02-24 | Utah v. Indiana State -160 | 90-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five scorers versus three scorers. Indiana State is deep with talent, Robbie Avila gets all the headlines as he should, but this team is packed with high level scorers. The Sycamores have five players averaging double figures, and have a strong balance across their lineup. Avila is a big who can step out and shoot, Swope and Conwell are excellent outside shooters, Larry can handle the ball and Kent is a wing with size who can score and help on the boards. Utah's top player is Carlson on the inside, but Indiana State has their own big in Avila who can matchup with him. Avila is not an elite defender, but he is a smart player who can force Carlson into bad shots, and get him in foul trouble on the other end. Utah has been favored in every game this postseason, this is the first time they will play a team better than them. Utah has not won a game as the underdog since mid February when they defeated UCLA. Indiana State also had a tougher road, as Utah got the advantage of playing a lower seeded VCU team. The Sycamores may not have made the Big Dance, but they will make in to the NIT Final. |
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04-02-24 | Royals v. Orioles -162 | 4-1 | Loss | -162 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore looked excellent in their first two games of the season, scoring at least 11 runs in each game, and now they will be playing a pitcher who was only 3-9 last season. Alec Marsh is starting for the Royals, he struggled last year and only had a 5.69 ERA. The Baltimore bats will get hot in this one, as Henderson and Santander are both off to a quick start to the 2024 season. Baltimore has 25 runs through their first three games, while KC only had 13, and 11 of them came in one game. The Royals hit five homers in their only win, but have shown very little offensive production outside that. The Baltimore pitching staff has five more strikeouts than the Royals, and are beating them in virtually every category. |
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04-01-24 | Cardinals v. Padres -105 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Six games into a 162-game season, the San Diego Padres are showing the type of offensive punch they so often lacked last year. Sunday's 13-4 rout of the San Francisco Giants marked their second double-figure game and gave them 45 runs, an average of 7.5 runs per game. They collected five doubles and two homers in the first three innings alone. San Diego will try to keep up that prodigious production tonight when it welcomes the St. Louis Cardinals to town for the opener of a three-game series. The Cardinals arrive in San Diego after a difficult 5-4 loss Sunday at the Los Angeles Dodgers. St. Louis was in position to split its opening series of the season after taking a 4-0 lead in the sixth but its bullpen coughed up the lead, denying Steven Matz a win. Matz's 5 1/3 innings tied Zack Thompson for the longest stint any of the team's four starters enjoyed in Los Angeles. That means the Cardinals could use a long outing from one of their free agent acquisitions, veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson, who gets the start today. Coming off a 15-9 season in 2023 for the American League East champion Baltimore Orioles, Gibson would like to improve on his 4.73 ERA. He'll make his sixth career start against San Diego, going 2-1 with a 4.28 ERA in the previous five and 1-0 with a 6.32 ERA in three outings at Petco Park. Finally, last year teams that played on Sunday night and had to travel seemed to never win when having to play Monday in a quick turnaround, and that's where the Cardinals are tonight. |
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04-01-24 | Hawks +3 v. Bulls | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks have been playing well recently, they have won four of their last five, while the Bulls have lost four of five. The Hawks get the extra advantage of the taking on the Bulls on a back to back. Chicago is playing two games in two nights with travel in between. They have a tough opponent in their opening night as well, as they must take on Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and the rest of the Timberwolves. The Bulls also have two starters on their injury report, as Caruso and Dosunmu are both battling injuries, which makes the second game of a back to back a likely spot to rest one or both of their important players. Chicago is not deep on the wing, as LaVine is out, and they do not have a big time scorer off the bench. Atlanta has adjusted well to life without Trae Young, they beat the Celtics twice recently, and Murray and Bogdanovic have stepped up their scoring. Atlanta has the 8th best offense in the league in terms of efficiency, while Chicago's defense ranks 21st and may be without some of their best perimeter defenders. Take advantage of the Hawks who are on a hot streak and get to play a Bulls team fresh off a battle against Minnesota. |
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04-01-24 | Suns +1.5 v. Pelicans | 124-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won the last two meetings between these teams, including the most recent contest in New Orleans. It would seem to make sense to take Phoenix in this contest, and that is the smart bet. Not only have the Suns won the last two, but they have won five of the last seven and are 5-2 ATS in that span as well. New Orleans has lost three of their last four against the spread. Phoenix has won four of their last six ATS, and they have been on a weird run on the road where they have alternated wins and losses over the last eight games. This sets the stage for a victory, and that’s what the Suns will do. |
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04-01-24 | Celtics -17 v. Hornets | 118-104 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Celts have had this game circled ever since they fell here in November as an -8.5-point favorite, and then again a week ago as double-digit chalk. That loss snapped an 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS win skein by Boston as a double-digit road favorite and we know they love taking frustrations out on the Hornets, going 25-6 SU and 23-7 ATS in overall meetings dating back to 2015, including 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS when seeking same season revenge. The Hornets are already making vacation plans and they bring a lousy 10-42 ATS mark into this contest in home games in which they lose as an underdog. |
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04-01-24 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs +119 | 4-6 | Win | 119 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at a potential first-round playoff matchup depending on how things pan out for the Atlantic Division title between the Panthers and Bruins. The Panthers are just 2-5-1 in their last eight games coming into this contest. Meanwhile, Toronto has won two straight and they have played solid hockey on home ice. Samsonov has righted the ship after going down to the minors and the Maple Leafs actually have some stable goaltending with him, Woll and Martin Jones on the depth chart. The Maple Leafs are at home and they are playing physical hockey of late. Look for Toronto to bang Florida around the rink and come up with the home win here. |
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04-01-24 | Royals v. Orioles -143 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Did the Royals empty their tank on Sunday? After scoring just two runs in their first two games, they broke out offensively in the series finale. I'm not so sure they can sustain their offensive momentum tomorrow, however. Baltimore SP Kremer was a solid bet at home last season and was 11-3 with a 3.70 ERA in 22 night games, as well. I'm also betting on the O's offense to come back to life. After throttling the Angels for 24 combined runs in their first two games, they managed just one run through seven innings on Sunday. Wacha's ERA was nearly 1.5 runs higher on the road than at home in 2023. His first start for Kansas City will be challenging — I would rather back Kremer today. |
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03-31-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Kings | 106-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It is likely that Sacramento will win this game. They have defeated Utah three straight times and in five of the last six meetings between these teams. However, they are just 3-3 ATS in those meetings. In fact, Utah has won against the spread in two of the last three meetings in Sacramento. While the Jazz are an abysmal team right now, their last three losses have been by 10 points or fewer. They are keeping games close, which should give them a good chance of covering the spread. |
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03-31-24 | 76ers -10.5 v. Raptors | 135-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are dealing with injury issues as the regular season winds down though the 76ers will at least be in the play-in tournament while the Raptors are looking to next season. Philadelphia hopes to get Embiid back before the end of the regular season as his absence has taken a massive toll on the team’s metrics, not to mention their win/loss record. On the plus side for the 76ers, they’re facing a Toronto team that is minus at least three starters (Barnes, Poeltl and Barrett) along with a pair of their top reserves in Boucher and Quickley. The Raptors have dropped 12 straight, seven of which have come by double figures. Look for Philadelphia to pick up the win in this contest to right the ship, at least temporarily. |
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03-31-24 | NC State +7.5 v. Duke | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units This marks the third time in less than a month that these teams will do battle. Duke won the regular season meeting before the Wolfpack vanquished the Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament as part of this magical run. NC State is drawing parallels to the 1983 team that Jim Valvano coached to the title with their late season run. It’s hard to argue with a team that won five games in five days just to get in the field, before dispatching Texas Tech, Oakland and Marquette to get here. On paper, Duke is the better team but in a one-game scenario, anything can happen, as we saw with Houston losing Jamal Shead, helping the Blue Devils win that game Friday night. Duke should win this game but it’s closer than expected. Take the points and the Wolfpack in this contest. Finally, #10 or worse Seed dogs of more than 4 pts are 13-4 ATS (NC State) |
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03-31-24 | Tennessee v. Purdue -3.5 | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Purdue has the talent to win it all and now that it has advanced far enough, it doesn't feel like last season's first-round upset is a cloud hanging over the program. Edey has dominated inside, but the Boilermakers are just as lethal from beyond the arc, as Smith (44.2 3PT%), Loyer (45.0 3PT%), and senior forward Mason Gillis (48.3%) are assassins. They're hardly the only long-range shooters on the roster, either. I expect Edey to have a field day against Aidoo this afternoon. The Vols' big man has been carved up by Hunter Dickinson, Armando Bacot, and others this season, and Edey is head and shoulders above those guys. While UT held Purdue to 4-for-15 shooting from deep in their November matchup, I expect a better shooting performance from the Boilermakers on this stage. Tennessee is solid enough on the perimeter to lock down most teams, but elite shooting squads have had more success. That includes Creighton (11-for-23 on Friday). I came away really impressed by how Purdue played in the second half of Friday's game. Gonzaga was as hot as any team in the tourney field, but it barely managed 30 points after halftime. The Boilermakers also held an efficient Utah State team under 38 percent from two-point range in the round of 32. The Vols can get hot offensively, but I won't bet on positive shooting regression from the first matchup (33.3 FG%). This is Purdue's best shot at a Final Four. Finally, #1 Seeds are 23-8 ATS off BB SUATS wins (Purdue). |
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03-31-24 | Angels v. Orioles -140 | 4-1 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels already had a team meeting to attempt to rebuild confidence in the team. This meetings rarely ever rebuild confidence, as the team knows things are already not looking good. Baltimore scored 24 runs in their first two games against Los Angeles, and now they are taking on their third best pitcher. Detmers had a 4.48 ERA last season, and the Baltimore bats will be able to put up numbers again here. In just two games, the Orioles have four players that already have three hits, their lineup is a well-oiled machine, and it starts at the top. Henderson has been excellent this season, and will keep the momentum going here against a Los Angeles team that may be hitting the panic button too early. |
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03-30-24 | Clemson +3.5 v. Alabama | 82-89 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Tigers come into this game having been an underdog in each of their previous three games and prevailing in each. A closer look at the first matchup between the two teams reveals some surprising similarities to the way the Tigers are playing now. Back in their earlier matchup with Alabama, the Tigers' defense was outstanding, holding the Crimson Tide under their scoring average and 40 percent shooting. The Tigers have held each of their three opponents in the tournament to under their scoring average and below their 3-point shooting average. The key to victory here will be to limit the Crimson Tide on the glass. The Tide are averaging over 44 rebounds per game in the tournament. In the first matchup, Clemson's front line held their own and matched the Tide on the glass with each team grabbing 41 rebounds. While Alabama is now 9-10 on the season against tournament teams, the Tigers are an impressive 9-4 against teams that have made the tournament this season. Clemson's backcourt is experienced and has played smart as evidenced by the team's drop in turnovers during this run. I think they will keep the run going tonight. |
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03-30-24 | Bucks v. Hawks +4 | 122-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams, with both games in Milwaukee. The clubs split those two games. Now they return to Atlanta where Milwaukee won the most recent contest between these teams, but the Hawks have won three of the last four. Atlanta is red-hot right now, winners of four straight games, and they are firing on all cylinders offensively, scoring at least 120 points in each of those games. Milwaukee has dropped their last two contests, and are 5-5 in their last 10. Milwaukee is trying to hold off New York for the second spot in the East, while Atlanta is fighting for their playoff lives. The Bucks may win the game, but it will be a close affair. |
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03-30-24 | Maple Leafs -139 v. Sabres | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Maple Leafs have won three of their last five games. They are playing well offensively and scored nine goals in their last three games. They have also played well on special teams, converting over 25 percent of their power play opportunities. The Sabres are good at killing penalties, but they’re not playing well defensively, giving up 15 goals in their last three games. They are also playing on consecutive nights and will be dealing with fatigue, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Maple Leafs in this game. The Sabres have lost three of their last four games. They have played well offensively, scoring nine goals in their last three games. They haven’t been as good on special teams, converting 16 percent of their power play opportunities. The Maple Leafs have killed over 76 percent of their penalties and they’re playing well defensively, giving up eight goals in their last three games, so expect them to keep Buffalo’s offense in check. Go with Toronto to cover the money line. |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut -8.5 | Top | 52-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Tournament Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units UConn is destroying their competition, as they won by 39 over Stetson, 17 over Northwestern, and 30 over San Diego State. Their backcourt carried them in the Sweet 16, as they got 18 points from Cam Spencer, and 17 points from Tristen Newton in the win. Newton was a First Team All-American this season and led the team with 15.3 PPG and 6.1 APG as a 6'5 senior guard. He has scored 13 or more in each of the three tournament games, with a high of 20 coming against Northwestern. Spencer is their outside shooter, he is a 6'4 senior guard averaging 14.5 PPG and has knocked down 94 threes on the season on a red-hot 44.1% shooting from deep. Their big man inside is 7'2, 280-pound sophomore Donovan Clingan, he averages 12.6 PPG and 7.4 RPG on the inside. Alex Karaban is another member of the sophomore class, the 6'8 forward can shoot from the outside and adds 13.6 PPG and 5.0 RPG. Stephon Castle is a 6'6 freshman guard getting 10.9 PPG, he had 16 in the win over San Diego State. UConn is currently ranked 1st overall in KenPom. They have the top overall offense in the nation in terms of efficiency and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. They play much slower than the Illini, ranking 319th in the nation in pace of play. UConn is 25-11 ATS as favorite and 16-4 road/neutral |
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03-30-24 | Angels v. Orioles -155 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Canning has been a bit of a project, teasing Angels fans with upside but failing to sustain success. His first start of the 2024 season will be a challenge, as Baltimore is fired up and coming off an 11-run shellacking of LA on Opening Day. I'm betting the O's bats will come to life again after a day off on Friday, chasing Canning from the game early. With early run support, Rodriguez will shine, building off of his late-season success in 2023 (2-1 with a 2.64 ERA in August and 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA in September). |
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03-29-24 | Creighton +3.5 v. Tennessee | 75-82 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only the ACC delivered more teams (4) in this year’s Sweet 16, but only the Big East remains unbeaten (6-0). With it, the Blue Birds bring a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS mark into this contest the past two seasons in this tourney. On the other side of the court, the Vols enter with a wobbly 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS mark in Sweet 16 contests, including 0-3 SUATS as a favorite. They are also a horrible 1-6 ATS laying points in this tournament to teams coming off a win in the Big Dance the past seven seasons. Finally, Creighton head coach Greg McDermott is 24-12-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points in his career against opponents coming off an ATS loss, including 3-0 SUATS during the postseason. |
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03-29-24 | Duke v. Houston -4 | 54-51 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units In this tournament, the Cougars have been riding a back-and-forth tightrope, alternating point spread results in each game. And if you’re willing to play the game, you’ll love knowing that No. 1 seeds who allowed 93-plus points in their previous game have bounced back with aplomb in the next contest, going 10-0 SUATS since 1992. And then there is Kelvin Sampson’s 19-5 record outright in his career in games after his troops surrendered 90-plus points in its last game, including 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS with the Cougars. This pretty much puts Houston into an Elite 8 context on Sunday. Couple that with the fact that there has never been a team to win this tournament that lost the first game in its conference tournament, and suddenly you find the Blue Devils playing with a blue dress, not what you’re looking for at this stage of this tournament. And not when you are 6-11 ATS in Sweet 16 performances, including 2-6 SUATS against .788 or greater opposition. |
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03-29-24 | Guardians -129 v. A's | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Guardians had a very good pitching staff last season and they have one of their best pitchers taking the mound in this game. The Athletics had one of the worst offenses in the league and they’re bringing back the core of that team. They didn’t have a lot of success against left-handers and didn’t play well when they faced Allen, who gave up two hits and no runs in his lone start against them. With Cleveland also having a good bullpen, they will keep Oakland’s offense in check. The Athletics also had one of the worst pitching in the league last season. Even though they added some depth in the offseason, Stripling didn’t look good on the mound last season, finishing with an ERA that was over 5. He gave up four runs in four innings in his last start against the Guardians and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. Go with Cleveland to cover the money line. |
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03-29-24 | Knicks -8.5 v. Spurs | 126-130 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks aren't just winning in recent games, they are blowing teams out. The Knicks have won seven of their last eight games and five of those seven wins have come by 12 points or more including the 44-point win over the Raptors on Wednesday. The Spurs have played better but they will struggle on the glass against the Knicks 3rd-ranked total rebounding squad. The Knicks' defense has been outstanding of late as well, now ranking second in the NBA in points allowed per game. The addition of Robinson and the likely return of Anunoby on Friday should give them additional presence both on the glass and defensively overall. Expect another comfortable Knicks win tonight. |
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03-29-24 | Gonzaga v. Purdue -4.5 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Gonzaga looked more like an NIT team than an NCAA participant. They had just lost at Santa Clara, dropping their record to 11-5 and their NET ranking fell to No. 46 – otherwise known as bubble territory. But the Bulldogs righted themselves quickly, ripping off 14 wins in the next 16 games, and comfortably made the March Madness at-large field as a No. 5 seed in the Midwest. Hence, despite the fact they are only 3-8 ATS in their last eleven Dances, Gonzaga is, in our mind, the biggest winner in the tournament to date. Virginia, Baylor and Kansas have each won titles in the last five tournaments, and they all failed to make it out of the first weekend in any of the four years they didn't win it all. It really makes you appreciate Gonzaga's run of nine straight Sweet 16 appearances. The bottom line, though, is the Boilers appear hell-bent on revenge for losing in the first round in this tournament to No. 16 seed Farleigh Dickinson. Should you have the urge to step in front of Purdue, we can only remind you about Virginia in the NCAA Tournament the year after they suffered the ignominy of becoming the first No. 1 seed team to ever fall to a No. 16 in the 2022 tourney. The Cavaliers stormed back with egg on their face and promptly proceeded to cut down the nets in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. |
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03-29-24 | Clippers v. Magic +2 | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic’s magical season looks to continue tonight in Disney World when they host the Clippers. The Magic have richly rewarded their backers in Orlando this season, bringing a 22-10 SUATS record, including 14-4 ATS when laying points. And they’ll be anxious to lay them tonight as they look to avenge a 16-point trouncing at the Clippers while checking in off back-to-back revenge bouts with the 76ers. That is not good news for L.A., and its 5-25 SU and 9-21 ATS record as a road dog after facing Philly, including 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in the last seven. |
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03-29-24 | Lakers v. Pacers -170 | 90-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams were in a wild, high-scoring affair in the City of Angels Sunday night. The Lakers have won five straight though one does have to wonder how much action Davis and James will see with both guys dealing with lingering injury issues at the moment. Indiana is the highest scoring team in the league though they do have serious defensive issues as well. The Pacers are 21-15 at home while the Lakers have gone 14-20 as the road team this season, even with their wins over Milwaukee and Memphis this week. With the Lakers banged up at this point in time, you have to give the slight advantage to the Pacers as they find a way to prevail in this contest. |
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03-29-24 | NC State v. Marquette -7 | 67-58 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After a so-so 11-5 start to the season, the Golden Eagles have been flying high of late, winning 16 of their previous 20 contests while cashing 14 times in the same games. They’ll take the floor tonight, with the fact that Marquette is 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS this season versus sub .666 opponents, including 10-0 SUATS the last ten games, knowing that head coach Shaka Smart is 5-1 SUATS as a favorite of fewer than 8 points against ACC competition. That and the fact they are 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS when laying fewer than 18 points this campaign. There is no refuting the fact that the Wolfpack have been the darlings of the tourney to date, arriving at the Sweet 16 as the only double-digit seed. This, however, is where the meat begins to separate from the bone as No. 11 seeds have been roasted in each of their last three Sweet 16 appearances by an average of 13 points per game. Remember, with 4 starters from last year’s 29 win unit, Marquette was the No. 5 ranked team in the land in the AP Preseason Top 25 poll. |
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03-28-24 | Illinois v. Iowa State -1.5 | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clones were as good as it gets at the pay window this season, going 26-10 ATS overall, including 26-2 SU and 23-5 ATS versus sub .800 foes. They’re also perennial money makers in this tourney with a 14-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS ledger as single-digit chalk. Illinois has matched up with Iowa State just twice since 1990, going 0-2 SUATS with both losses by double-digits, which fits nicely with the Illini’s 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS mark the last nine game against Big 12 opponents. ISU ranks No 12 in the nation in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (40.17) and No. 4 in Scoring Defense (612 PPG). Iowa State gives up just over 61 PPG and the Illini are 0-5-1 ATS this season in games in which they failed to score 73 points. With Illinois head coach Brad Underwood on a 0-4 ATS slide in this tourney against .700 or greater foes, we're on the Clones. |
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03-28-24 | Ducks v. Seattle Kraken -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 117 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kraken are the clear favorites in this contest, meaning there is not much money to be had by simply taking them against the Moneyline. Instead, it might be worth taking the risk and giving up the 1.5 goals. The Kraken have defeated the Ducks five straight times, including three straight in Seattle. Each of those victories in Seattle has been by at least three goals, as the Ducks have had no answers for them. Eight of the last nine losses for Anaheim have been by at least two goals. The Kraken ended their eighth-game losing streak with the victory over Anaheim on Tuesday and will be looking to still keep their very thin playoff hopes alive. |
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03-28-24 | Alabama v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units After a rocky 5-4 start, UNC went on a 10-3 run before the wheels fell off in a 4-5 February. With a puny 20-13 record following a 2nd round exit in the ACC Tournament, the Heels FAILED to make the Big Dance. Even worse, they decided to take their ball and go back to Chapel Hill, spurning the NIT to stew in private over one of the university’s biggest sports embarrassments. Fast forward to now, where the return of Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis took UNC from the pit of despair to a No. 1 seed in this year’s Big Dance. The Westgate SuperBook, however, did not offer as much respect as the Selection Committee when they gave the Tar Heels longer odds of winning it all than No. 2 Arizona. The good news for the Tide is they tickle the twine more than any team in the nation, averaging 90.7 points per game. The bad news is they get ripped for 80.9 PPG on defense, by far the worst of any Sweet 16 team. They also don’t have much positive history in this event, going one-and done in their last two trips to the NCAA tourney, and just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in this tournament versus No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. Meanwhile, Hubert’s Heels are 33-5 SU and 26-12 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points against SEC opposition while Bama is just 1-6 ATS as a dog of 2 or more points this season. North Carolina is on a 10-1 winning run heading into this slugfest! Finally, UNC is on a 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS run in its last eight contests in The Big Dance – all since Hubert Davis took the reins three years ago |
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03-28-24 | Bucks v. Pelicans +1.5 | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Don’t look now, but the Pelicans are right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race thanks to the one-two power-punch of forwards Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both of these All-Stars are averaging over 20 points and 5 rebounds per game. As such, New Orleans finds itself in a five-team chase for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference thanks to a recent 9-3 winning run at press time. They also surrendered a season-high 141 points in a 24-point loss at Milwaukee two months ago, which works well with its 11-6 ATS mark in the series when avenging a same-season double-digit loss. On the other side of the court, the Bucks check in after hosting the Lakers on Tuesday in an overtime loss. After Laker looks, the Bucks are just 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS in non-conference clashes. |
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03-28-24 | Golden Knights v. Jets -121 | 4-1 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be a great game between two teams eager to improve in the standings. The Golden Knights look to pull off the upset but the Jets look to step up and take over this game on their home ice. The Jets, who average 3.07 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Jets should limit the Golden Knights offense with Josh Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Connor Hellebuyck to make plenty of big saves. The Jets should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice. |
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03-28-24 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 | 52-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units UConn performed admirably as defending champs this season, going 24-12 ATS in all games, including 22-1 SU and 17-6 ATS since the calendar year changed in January. No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 who won and covered their first two games in this event are 24-2 SU and 20-6 ATS, including 5-1 ATS when on a 3-0 SUATS run. As for the 26-win Aztecs, they’re a money-burning 1-5 ATS as a dog away from home this season, plus 0-2 SUATS in this tournament as a dog of more than 8 points – by an averaging losing margin of 24 points per game. With Connecticut on a 5-0-1 ATS run in its last six Sweet 16 contests, stepping in front of the Huskies right now is like trying to cross a six-lane highway while wearing a blindfold. |
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03-28-24 | Clemson +7.5 v. Arizona | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units All three of Arizona’s wins in this tournament have come against opponents that were coming off SU underdog wins. Arizona is just 2-6 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 or more points in Sweet 16 contests. Taking it another step further, the Wildcats are just 1-3 ATS in this Tournament against foes coming off consecutive underdog wins. In fact, the Tigers have been dynamite as dogs this campaign, posting a near-perfect 8-1 ATS record. They’ve also not been afraid to get into the ring against quality foes, going 15-5 SU and 13-5-2 ATS this season versus .647 or greater foes. Zona’s recent history in this round, however, has been clearly disappointing: 4-8 ATS in Sweet 16 games, including 1-6 ATS as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS against opponents coming off a pair of SUATS wins. With the Tiger Train still thundering down the track – and head coach Brad Brownell standing 3-0 ATS in this tourney when facing an opponent coming off a win, we're on the Tigers. |
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03-28-24 | Angels v. Orioles -176 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units While the Angels will be without their former two-way ace, the Orioles went out and added one as right-hander Corbin Burnes will get the Opening Day assignment for Baltimore. Burnes, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner, went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA and league-best 1.069 WHIP (walks and hits to innings pitched ratio) last season. The 29-year-old was acquired in a February trade after Baltimore won the American League East in 2023 but was roughed up by Texas hitters in a three-game AL Division Series sweep. Burnes allowed two runs, one unearned, in 5 1/3 innings in his final spring training start. He gave up five hits and struck out four in 57 pitches and then turned his attention to the Angels. The Orioles will also have a new closer, 35-year-old Craig Kimbrel, signed as a free agent this past winter. Kimbrel, owner of 417 career saves, fills in for All-Star right-hander Felix Bautista, who will miss 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. |
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03-27-24 | VCU +8.5 v. Utah | 54-74 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With the way that this VCU defense is playing, Utah's fans won't witness the same offense that got them this far in the NIT. The Rams are not letting anybody touch 70 points against them. Meanwhile, the VCU offense is quietly efficient, especially on threes where Utah's defense is weak. An area where the Utes won't be able to pull away is at the free throw line, as this team shoots 65.5% there. That will give the Rams ample opportunity to close the gap if they're trailing late. This game will probably be tight throughout, but even if it's not, VCU won't lose by more than six. Take them to beat the spread. |
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03-27-24 | Pistons v. Wolves -14.5 | 91-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wolves don't have any reason for a letdown in this game as they march on trying to battle for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Wolves are 25-9 at home this season and own the third-best point differential in the Western Conference. The Pistons, meanwhile, have the NBA's worst record and have the third-worst point differential in the NBA. The Wolves should not have much issue slowing down a Pistons' offense that is just 19th in the NBA in field goal shooting and 25th in 3-point shooting. The Wolves also shoot the ball well from long-range and that will be critical against a Pistons' team that is just 22nd in the NBA in 3-point defense. Expect the Wolves to pick up their third straight win on Wednesday night and push the Pistons to their 8th straight defeat. |
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03-27-24 | Knicks -12.5 v. Raptors | 145-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Toronto is playing without Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poetl, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and three others tomorrow, but does it still have a shot at covering the 12.5-point spread? The better question may be, how will they stop hot-shooting Knicks guard Donte DiVincenzo? New York's sharpshooter scored a career-high 40 points on Monday, knocking down a team-record 11 three-pointers. 20 of his 23 field goal attempts were from beyond the arc, putting him eight made threes away from the lead for most three-pointers by a Knick since Evan Fournier hit 241 in the 2021-22 season. He's not the only Knickerbocker who's a matchup problem for the Raptors. Jalen Brunson scored 28 points on Monday and Josh Hart notched his sixth triple-double (11 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists) since January. The backbone of New York's squad has chemistry from their collegiate days at Villanova, making the Knicks a difficult team to play no matter the venue. They'll bury this depleted Raptors roster from three-point range, mixing in the occasional dunk and layup. I'll bet that chemistry shows up again on Wednesday, giving NY enough juice to win and cover as large spread favorites against tanking Toronto. |
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03-27-24 | UNLV +6.5 v. Seton Hall | 68-91 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UNLV hopes to make it three straight wins and two on the road with a win over Seton Hall today. The Running Rebels have won their two games in the NIT by an average of eight points, holding their opponents to an average of 78 points. On the season, the Rebels are 189th in the nation in scoring. They are 75th in field goal shooting and 173rd in 3-point shooting. The Running Rebels are just 252nd in the country in 3-point field goals per game. Defensively, they are 80th in the nation in scoring defense. The Rebels are 122nd in field goal defense and 66th in 3-point defense. The Rebels are 287th in the nation in total rebounds per game and 74th in fewest turnovers. |
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03-26-24 | Cincinnati v. Indiana State -3.5 | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Cincinnati may have dispatched a Missouri Valley Conference team in beating Bradley in the second round but that game was at home. The Bearcats were just 4-7 as the visiting team this season and their standout road win came over BYU back in early January. Losing Thomas and Lahkin takes two of the Bearcats top five scoring options out of the mix and makes it tougher to keep up in a track meet situation with Indiana State. The Sycamores rolled up a 15-1 record at home this season, including wins over Drake in the regular season plus SMU and Minnesota in the NIT. Indiana State feeds off the home crowd and their health carries them to a win in this contest. |
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03-26-24 | Golden Knights v. Predators -133 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be a great game between two evenly matched teams. The Golden Knights look to pull off the upset but the Predators have been red hot and look to dominate this game on both ends of the ice. The Predators, who average 3.23 goals per game, should pile on the goals with Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Predators, who allow only 2.90 goals per game, should limit the Golden Knights offense with Roman Josi, Ryan McDonagh, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Juuse Saros to make plenty of big saves. The Predators should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice. |
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03-26-24 | Oilers -120 v. Jets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Edmonton's offense has stepped up but the defense has also been great, allowing only 2.90 goals per game. Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm have combined for 9.7 defensive point shares and 176 blocked shots while Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci have combined for 5.8 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. In addition, goaltender Stuart Skinner has been great with a .905 save percentage and a 2.65 goals-against average on 1365 shots with 2.8 goals saved above average. |
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03-26-24 | Warriors -1.5 v. Heat | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami holds a 7-game safety net from the 10th and final playoff seed, however they’ve lost six of their last ten games overall and have struggled miserably at home this season, going 13-21 ATS overall, including 3-9 ATS against Western Conference opponents. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been golden on this floor in the series, cashing in 12 of their last 18 visits, including 5-0 ATS when seeking same-season revenge from a loss of seven or more points. Golden State arrives holding down the tenth and final spot in the Western Conference playoff race, just one leg up on the surging Houston Rockets. With Golden State entering off a down-to-the-wire, last-second loss at Minnesota, look for the Warriors to improve on their sharp 22-11 ATS mark on the NBA road this season, including 10-3 SUATS the last thirteen games, as they slice up Heat on South Beach tonight. |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks -8.5 | 128-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks should be able to power past the Lakers in this rematch. Both teams are among the highest-scoring teams in the NBA and, while neither has been effective on the defensive end, the Lakers struggle on the road defensively. LA is allowing 120 points per game on the road, ranking them just 25th in the NBA in road-scoring defense. The Bucks will dominate the perimeter, ranking fourth in the NBA in 3-point field goals made per game against the Lakers' 21st-ranked 3-point defense. The Lakers also turn the ball over far more frequently than the Bucks, ranking 19th in the NBA in fewest turnovers per game compared with the Bucks' 8th ranking. Look for Milwaukee to pick up the win |
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03-26-24 | Georgia +9.5 v. Ohio State | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs have been outstanding against the spread in their last 11 road games, going 10-1 including their victory on the road in the NIT. The Dawgs are winning by cutting down their turnovers, averaging just 12 per contest in the NIT, and shooting 45% from 3-point range in their two tournament games. The Buckeyes are allowing the opposition to shoot 32% from 3-point range in their two wins thus far but are allowing 84.5 points per game in their two wins. They are also being outscored by four points in bench scoring, while the Bulldogs' bench has outscored the opposition's bench 58-9 in their two wins. Ride with the Dawgs here to keep their NIT success going. |
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