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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-11-13||Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres UNDER 7||Top||3-2||Win||100||12 h 5 m||Show|
5* Dodgers/Padres MLB Blue Chip Top Play: UNDER 7
I expect a very low-scoring game tonight between the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles will send out Zack Greinke, who was dominant in his first start. Greinke didn't allow a run, only gave up two hits and struck out six over six and a third. He will go up against Jason Marquis, who was better than the stats might indicate. San Diego lost Marquis' first start 2-5, but the veteran allowed just 2 earned runs on six hits over six innings. He did allow two home runs in that game, but that was at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Neither pitcher should have to worry too much about the long ball in PETCO Park. Runs should be hard to come by! BET THE UNDER!
|04-10-13||Tampa Bay Rays +115 v. Texas Rangers||Top||2-0||Win||115||5 h 5 m||Show|
5* Rays/Rangers MLB Diamond Top Play: Rays +115
The Rays are showing some great value here. Tampa Bay will send out Matt Moore, who I am extremely high on this season. Moore opened up with a dominant performance against the Indians. He allowed 0 runs on 2 hits with 8 strikeouts over six innings. He's not going to be intimidated by the Rangers or their stadium. In his only career start at Texas, Moore went 7 innings allowing 0 runs on just 2 hits with 6 strikeouts.
He'll be opposed by Derek Holland. While Holland was also strong in his season debut, he has a 5.03 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 9 career starts against the Rays. In his last two starts at home against Tampa Bay, he's allowed 10 runs (8 earned) on 15 hits in just 13 innings. BET THE RAYS!
|04-09-13||Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7||Top||6-9||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
5* Rockies/Giants MLB Late Night Blue Chip Top Play: OVER 7
I look for both offenses to put up a good amount of runs in this matchup. The Giants will send out Tim Lincecum who simply has lost his touch. While he allowed just 3 hits in his season debut, he lasted just 5 innings due to walking 7 batters. With the way the Rockies are swinging the bats to start the season, they should be able to put up at least 4 runs. Colorado will counter with Juan Nicasio, who was fortunate to allow just 2 runs in six innings in his season debut against the Brewers. He allows 7 hits and walked two while only striking out 2. San Francisco should also be able to get to 4 runs here. BET THE OVER!
|04-03-13||Los Angeles Angels +116 v. Cincinnati Reds||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||9 h 58 m||Show|
5* Angels/Reds MLB Blue Chip Diamond Top Play: Angeles +118
The Angels were able to outlast the Reds 3-1 in a 13-inning marathon on Opening Day. Los Angeles has the makings of being one of the best teams in baseball and are clearly showing some value as an underdog. Cincinnati will send out Matt Latos, who went 14-4 with a 3.48 ERA, but he's a notorious slow starter. Latos was just 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA in April last year and is just 2-8 with a 5.73 in 13 career starts during the first month of the season. C.J. Wilson didn't have a great spring training with a 7.11 ERA, but a lot of that was just working on his pitches. He showed outstanding command with an 11/2 strike out to walk ratio. I'm a firm believe that Wilson will bounce back from a so-so 2012 season now that's he healthy. BET THE ANGELS!
|04-01-13||Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 7||Top||0-1||Win||100||7 h 32 m||Show|
5* MLB Blue Chip Total Top Play: Royals/White Sox UNDER 7
Two of the American League's top starters will face off this afternoon in Chicago, as the White Sox send out Chris Sale against the Royals newly acquired James Shields. These two aces should have a huge advantage over the offense, as temperatures are expected to be around 39 at the start of the game with wind chills below freezing. This is going to allow both pitchers to be extremely aggressive, as the ball simply won't travel anywhere. BET THE UNDER!
|09-26-12||Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants -145||Top||0-6||Win||100||11 h 13 m||Show|
5* LATE NIGHT MLB GAME OF THE MONTH: Giants -145
This is a solid spot to jump on San Francisco with a sizzling Matt Cain taking the mound. Cain has been dominant at home this season, where he is 7-3 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.916 WHIP. In his two most recent starts at home against Los Angeles and Colorado, he allowed just 3 runs on 10 hits over 15.3 innings of work, while striking out 13.
Cain is a ridiculous 21-9 in Cains last 30 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. We also find a very low total in this one, as Arizona send out Wade Miley. That only adds more strength to this play, as Cain seems to save his best for when he goes up against quality starters. He is 12-4 in his last 16 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
The other key to this game is that Miley is a southpaw. San Francisco has been a much better offense against left-handed pitching, and as a result they are 36-17 when they face a lefty this year.
It's also worth noting that the Giants managed to score just 2 runs in a 2-7 loss to Arizona last night. San Francisco is 26-6 in their last 32 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. BET THE GIANTS!
|09-25-12||Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8||Top||5-2||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
5* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR: Rays/Red Sox UNDER 8
I'm expecting a low scoring game that stays well under the total of 8. We have ourselves quite a pitching matchup in this one, and neither team really has a whole lot to speak of offensively. Tampa Bay will send out David Price against Boston's Clay Buchholz. Price is 18-5 with a 2.58 ERA on the season, while Buchholz has a 1.99 ERA over his last 3 starts.
Both pitchers have a very strong history against their opponent. Price is 7-4 with a 3.19 ERA vs Tampa, while Buchholz is 5-4 with a 2.52 ERA vs. Boston. Buchholz is coming into this game off seven shutout innings in his last start, and is 13-3 UNDER after giving up no earned runs last outing since 1997. Price on the other hand is 30-15 UNDER vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. BET THE UNDER!
|09-18-12||Milwaukee Brewers -116 v. Pittsburgh Pirates||Top||6-0||Win||100||9 h 55 m||Show|
5* NL CENTRAL BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH: Brewers -116
The Brewers and Pirates head into a crucial series that will likely eliminate one of these two teams from the playoff picture. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh are an identical 74-72 on the season, but these two teams are headed in different directions. Milwaukee is a major league best 20-6 since August 19, while the Brewers have lost 18 of their last 25 overall.
Tonight's pitching matchup looks to be a good one, as the Brewers send out Yovani Gallardo against A.J. Burnett. Gallardo is 15-8 with a 3.72 ERA over 20 starts, while Burnett is 15-7 with a 3.66 ERA over 27 starts. I believe this is where we really find an edge for Milwaukee. Gallardo is 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA over 13 career starts (team record: 12-1) vs the Pirates. Burnett is 2-3 with a 5.23 ERA over 8 starts (team record: 4-4).
Normally I have my concerns with the Brewers away from home, but they are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee is also 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record and 7-0 in Gallardo's last 7 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh is just 2-8 in their last 10 vs. National League Central and 5-16 in their last 21 during game 1 of a series. BET THE BREWERS!
|09-12-12||San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5||Top||8-3||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
5* MLB OVER/UNDER DOMINATION: Giants/Rockies OVER 9.5
These two teams have combined for 28 runs over the first two games of this series, and I don't see the scoring dropping off in the series finale.
San Francisco will send out Tim Lincecum, whose name alone gets people to think about rolling the under. However, Lincecum is having a horrible season. While he has allowed just 4 runs over last two starts, he is coming off a start where he walked 7 batters. Both of those game at home. When you are struggling with control, the last place you want to pitch is Coors Field.
The OVER is 8-2-1 in Lincecums last 11 road starts, 5-1-1 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record and 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. BET THE OVER!
|09-11-12||Washington Nationals v. New York Mets -111||Top||5-3||Loss||-111||9 h 28 m||Show|
5* Nationals/Mets MLB Money Line Smash: Mets -111
Even though the Mets have lost four straight, I will gladly take them at this price with R.A. Dickey on the mound. Dickey is an amazing 18-4 with a 2.56 ERA over 28 starts, 8-1 with a 2.29 ERA at home and 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA over his last 3 starts. Those numbers have Dickey right in the thick of things for the NL Cy Young, which I believe is reason enough for the rest of the team to show up and play their best against the Nationals.
Washington will counter with Jordan Zimmermann, who has been very effective this year. However, Zimmermann has struggled of late. He is just 1-1 with a 7.47 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Nationals are just 1-4 in Zimmermann's last 5 starts as an underdog. BET THE METS
|09-04-12||New York Yankees +122 v. Tampa Bay Rays||Top||2-5||Loss||-100||9 h 49 m||Show|
5* Yankees/Rays MLB GAME OF THE WEEK: Yankees +122
With the Yankees loss to Tampa Bay and the Orioles win over Toronto, New York is now just one game ahead of Baltimore and 2.5 games ahead of Tampa Bay for the AL East division lead. If the Yankees don't get things figured out in a hurry, they could end up missing the playoffs.
I don't think that's going to happen. I expect the Yankees to kick it into full gear and it will start with a win tonight against the Rays.
New York is 4-1 in Garcias last 5 starts, while Tampa Bay is just 4-12 in their last 16 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 1-4 in Cobbs last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE YANKEES!
|08-29-12||St Louis: J Kelly -116 v. Pittsburgh: W Rodriguz||Top||0-5||Loss||-116||9 h 23 m||Show|
5* NL CENTRAL NO DOUBT MONEY LINE SMASH: Cardinals -116
I look for St Louis to take home the rubber match in their 3-game series with the Pirates on Wednesday. I was spot on the Pirates in last night's matchup, but this time it's St Louis who has the edge on the mound.
The Cardinals will send out Joe Kelly against Wandy Rodriguez. Kelly has been hit or miss this season, but is coming off a solid start his last time out. He gave up just two runs on six hits over 6.3 innings of work against the Diamondbacks. Rodriguez has really struggled since being traded to the Pirates. He is 0-3 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.636 WHIP over his L3 starts.
St Louis is 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss, 17-4 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter and 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. BET THE CARDINALS!
|08-28-12||Washington Nationals -1.5 v. Miami Marlins||Top||0-9||Loss||-115||9 h 21 m||Show|
5* MLB RUN LINE MASSACRE GAME OF THE YEAR: Nationals -1.5 (-115)
Washington comes into Tuesday's game against the Marlins, having lost four straight. There's no question this team is going to be motivated to put an end to their losing ways, and what better starter to turn things around than ace Stephen Strasburg.
Strasburg led the Nationals to a 4-1 win over the Braves in his last start (Team's last win), and I look for Washington to have no trouble winning tonight's game by at least 2 runs. The Nationals have won by 2+ in each of Strasburg's last four starts. He has already beat the Marlins twice this season by 2+ and is a solid 4-1 with a 1.56 ERA over 7 career starts vs the Nationals.
It just so happens his opponent is once again Ricky Nolasco, who has opposed him in each of his last two starts vs Miami. Nolasco is 0-2 vs. Washington this season, allowing 8 runs on 14 hits over 11.3 innings of work. Nolasco has struggled all season, as he is 9-12 with a 5.07 ERA overall.
Washington is 11-1 in Strasburgs last 12 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 14-3 in Strasburgs last 17 starts as a road favorite, and 10-3 in Strasburgs last 13 starts vs. National League East! BET THE NATIONALS!
|08-27-12||Cincinnati: B Arroyo -102 v. Arizona: T Skaggs||Top||3-2||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
5* Reds/Diamondbacks MLB LATE NIGHT MONEY LINE SMASH: Reds -102
I look for the Reds to come into today's series opener against the Diamondbacks extremely motivated to get back on track with a win. Cincinnati just lost 2 of 3 at home to St Louis and have lost 3 of 4 overall. The Reds still hold a 6-game lead in the NL Central, but I don't think there is any question that lead is in jeopardy with how well St Louis is playing.
This figures to be a good series for the Reds, as Arizona is just 2-5 over their last 7 games overall. Their starting pitching has not been good at all, posting a 7.12 ERA during their recent poor stretch. That means starters aren't going deep in games, which leads to a tired bullpen.
Arizona will send out Tyler Skaggs, who made an impressive debut against the Marlins, allowing just 2 runs over 6.7 innings of work. However, he did walk five batters in that game, and there is no doubt the Reds offense provides a more serious threat of scoring runs.
As for the Reds, they will counter with Bronson Arroyo, who has really been strong of late. Arroyo is 3-0 with 2.82 ERA and 0.940 WHIP over his last three starts and is an impressive 7-5 with a 3.48 ERA over 14 road starts this season.
Cincinnati has a number of trends adding even more value to this play. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss, 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League West. BET THE REDS!
|08-26-12||St. Louis Cardinals -124 v. Cincinnati Reds||Top||8-2||Win||100||1 h 16 m||Show|
5* MLB NO DOUBT SUNDAY AFTERNOON SMASH: Cardinals -124
The Cardinals are clearly a strong play with Adam Wainwright on the mound. In his last start, Wainwright threw a complete game shutout, allowing just five hits. He hasn't allowed more than five hits in any of his last three starts, and to no surprise he is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. Cincinnati will counter with Homer Bailey, who is a weak 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA at home and just 10-8 with a 4.11 ERA overall. BET THE CARDINALS!
|08-25-12||Atlanta: M Minor v. San Francisco: Bumgarner -146||Top||7-3||Loss||-146||17 h 20 m||Show|
5* MLB EARLY BIRD MONEY LINE SMASH: Giants -146
I will gladly back the Giants at home with their ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound against the mediocre Mike Minor of the Braves. Bumgarner has been nearly unbeatable at home this season. He is 8-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.882 WHIP over 11 starts (Giants are 9-2 overall). As for Minor, pitching on the road has not been his thing. Minor is just 2-6 with a 5.91 ERA over 11 road starts.
San Francisco is 12-2 in Bumgarners last 14 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and a PERFECT 8-0 in Bumgarners last 8 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE GIANTS!
|08-24-12||St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds -117||Top||8-5||Loss||-117||8 h 45 m||Show|
5* NL CENTRAL BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE YEAR: Reds -117
The Reds are showing some amazing value at home tonight. Cincinnati will send out Mat Latos up against Lance Lynn. While Lynn has a more impressive 13-5 overall record, I believe Latos is clearly the better pitcher. Latos enters with a 10-3 record.
Lynn was a 1st half sensation. He has since came back to reality, as he post just a 3.73 ERA on the year and is 0-1 with a 6.46 ERA over his L3 starts. Latos on the other hand is 6-2 with a 3.14 ERA at home and is rolling with a 1.23 ERA over his L3 starts.
St Louis is only 1-6 in Lynns last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, while Cincinnati is 8-1 in Latos' last 9 starts as a home favorite and 4-0 in Latos' last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record
The Reds seem to save their best for the big weekend crowds, as they are 11-1 in their last 12 Friday games!
Cincinnati is also 38-15 in their last 53 games as a favorite and 17-5 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record. BET THE REDS!
|08-22-12||Pittsburgh Pirates -131 v. San Diego Padres||Top||2-4||Loss||-131||7 h 15 m||Show|
5* NL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE BEATDOWN: Pirates -129
The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't been swept in a 3-game series since an interleague showdown with Baltimore back in early June. After losing the first two games of their current series with the Padres, now is the perfect time to jump on the Pirates, especially considering they have their ace James McDonald on the mound. McDonald comes in off a very strong showing at St Louis, where he didn't allow a run over six innings of a 2-1 Pittsburgh win.
Pittsburgh is 20-7 in their last 27 during game 3 of a series, including a perfect 5-0 in McDonalds last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. BET THE PIRATES!
|08-21-12||Cincinnati: H Bailey v. Philadelphia: C Lee -154||Top||5-4||Loss||-154||8 h 13 m||Show|
5* MLB NO DOUBT BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Phillies -154
The Phillies may seem like they are a bit over-priced today, but I don't think that's the case at all. Philadelphia comes in playing solid baseball, having won three straight overall, including a 12-5 win in Game 1 of the series.
I really like the pitching matchup in favor of Philadelphia. The Phillies will send out Cliff Lee against Homer Bailey. Lee has had his struggles, but he has owned the Reds. He is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in three outing since the Reds since 2010. Bailey on the other hand has not fared well against the Phillies, he is 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA over 5 career starts and has a 7.00 ERA in four starts at Citizens Bank Park. BET THE PHILLIES!
|08-20-12||Atlanta Braves +127 v. Washington Nationals||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||9 h 16 m||Show|
5* BRAVES/NATIONALS NL EAST MONEY LINE SLAUGHTER: Braves +127
If the Braves are going to win the NL East, they desperately need to take this series. I like Atlanta's chances with Tim Hudson on the mound. Hudson hasn't lost a start since the early July.
While it just so happened that loss came against the Nationals, I'll take my chances with Hudson. He is 14-5 with a 2.53 ERA over 25 career starts vs. Washington.
Atlanta is also 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series, 21-5 in their last 26 games vs. a right-handed starter, and 9-3 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. BET THE BRAVES!
|08-19-12||Chicago White Sox -105 v. Kansas City Royals||Top||2-5||Loss||-105||3 h 4 m||Show|
5* MLB NO DOUBT WINNER: White Sox -105
I'll gladly take the White Sox in this matchup. Chicago is 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series, 10-4 in their last 14 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game, and a PERFECT 7-0 in Quintanas last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. BET THE WHITE SOX!
|08-18-12||Boston: J Lester v. New York (A): D Phelps -125||Top||4-1||Loss||-125||6 h 0 m||Show|
5* RED SOX YANKEES MLB RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR: Yankees -125
Based off the rivalry between these two teams and the huge following of the Red Sox, we find some amazing value on the Yankees as a small home favorite. New York is clearly playing the better baseball, as the Red Sox are once again struggling down the stretch.
New York won the first game of the series 6-4, and are now 8-2 over their last 10 games overall! As for Boston, they have lost 7 of their last 10. No question the Red Sox are pumped up to play, but a lot of people overlook the fact that they are playing their 9th road game in a row.
While the Yankes have a comfortable 6 game lead in the AL East, they know that lead isn't safe with how well the Rays have been playing since the return of Evan Longoria. Winning at home against a division rival is extremely important. New York is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. American League East.
A lot of people are going to look at the pitching matchup and think the Red Sox have an advantage with Jon Lester on the mound. I don't think so. Lester has a career 4.42 ERA and 1.418 WHIP in 19 starts vs the Yankees. Lester is also just 2-10 in Lesters last 12 starts vs. American League East, while New York is 182-83 in their last 265 home games vs. a left-handed starter. BET THE YANKEES BIG!
|08-16-12||Tampa Bay: D Price v. LA Anaheim: D Haren +108||Top||7-0||Loss||-100||12 h 44 m||Show|
5* MLB LATE NIGHT MONEY MAKER GAME OF THE MONTH: Angels +108
As good as the Rays David Price has been in 2012, he should not be listed as a favorite against the Angels, who will counter with a pretty good starter of their own in Dan Haren. The Angels come in having won two straight after a tough stretch early in August. I look for them to build off that momentum and put together a big run down the final stretch of the season.
Los Angeles seems to save their best for the best teams. They are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 6-2 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series, and 4-1 in Harens last 5 starts as an underdog. BET THE RAYS!
|08-15-12||New York Mets -112 v. Cincinnati Reds||Top||1-6||Loss||-112||9 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB NO DOUBT GAME OF THE WEEK: Mets -112
If you haven't already jumped back on the R.A. Dickey bandwagon, now is definitely the time to do so. Dickey has regained his magic and is showing some amazing value tonight as a small favorite.
In Dickey's last start he went the distance, allowing the Marlins to score just one run on five hits while striking out 10. He has a ridiculous 27 strikeouts over his last three starts to go with a stellar 1.17 ERA and 0.826 WHIP.
New York is 5-1 in Dickeys last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 8-1 in Dickeys last 9 starts with 5 days of rest, and 11-3 in Dickeys last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. BET THE METS!
|08-14-12||Tampa Bay: M Moore -159 v. Seattle: K Millwood||Top||2-3||Loss||-159||11 h 20 m||Show|
5* MLB ABSOLUTE MONEY LINE SMASH: Rays -159
With Evan Longoria back in the lineup, the Tampa Bay Rays have caught fire. With last night's 4-1 win in the series opener against the Mariners, the Rays have now won seven straight overall to take over the top Wild Card spot. I have no trouble laying big juice on Tampa Bay Tuesday with Matt Moore on the mound.
After a rough first couple months, Moore has really turned things around. He has now went five straight games without allowing more than 2 earned runs. He is a perfect 3-0 with a 0.51 ERA in his last three starts. He also has a strong history against the Mariners, posting a 2.08 ERA in two career starts vs Seattle.
I'll gladly take my chances on Moore with Seattle sending out Kevin Milwood, who has really struggled of late. Milwood has a horrible 6.06 ERA and 1.592 WHIP over his last three starts and has a 5.10 ERA over 9 career starts vs the Rays.
Tampa Bay is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, 4-1 in Moores last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200, and 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. BET THE RAYS!
|08-13-12||Chicago (A): J Peavy -121 v. Toronto: Villanueva||Top||2-3||Loss||-121||8 h 50 m||Show|
5* MLB NO DOUBT AL MONEY LINE SMASH: Chicago White Sox -121
The White Sox are showing some solid value on the road. While Chicago's Jake Peavy is just 9-8 on the season, he has a very respectable 3.08 ERA, which is a strong indicator that he has pitched much better than his record. Peavy has thrived away from home in 2012, where he has a 2.96 ERA. He is also pitching very well of late, posting a 2.18 ERA over his last three starts.
Chicago is 9-2 in Peavys last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are also 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series and 16-6 in their last 22 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE WHITE SOX!
|08-12-12||Washington Nationals +121 v. Arizona Diamondbacks||Top||4-7||Loss||-100||5 h 41 m||Show|
5* MLB BLOCKBUSTER SMASH: Nationals +121
Washington is showing some amazing value, as they should not be listed as an underdog against Arizona with this pitching matchup. Washington is 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series, 8-1 in their last 9 games as an underdog, and 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter! BET THE NATIONALS!
|08-11-12||Atlanta Braves v. New York Mets +105||Top||9-3||Loss||-100||20 h 24 m||Show|
5* MLB SATURDAY DOG OF THE NIGHT: Mets +105
I will gladly back the Mets at home behind Johan Santana in his first game back from the DL. Santana is going to have a fresh arm, and I expect him to pitch a solid 5-6 innings in this one. Santana has also pitched extremely well at home, where he has a 2.90 ERA in 10 starts. BET THE METS!
|08-10-12||San Diego: E Volquez v. Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald -136||Top||9-8||Loss||-136||7 h 6 m||Show|
5* MLB MONSTER MONEY LINE SMASH: Pirates -136
There's no denying Pirates ace James McDonald has been in a funk of late, but I am extremely confident that he will get back on track at home tonight. McDonald has a very strong 2.15 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in 11 starts (Pirates 7-4) at home.
San Diego has helped us get a very favorable line, thanks to their current 4-game winning streak. However, all of those wins came at home. The Padres are just 22-34 on the road this season.
This is a completely different Pittsburgh team than we have seen in recent year. They are a serious contender to win the NL Central or bring home a Wild Card berth. The Padres have won nine straight at Pittsburgh. There's no question they will be motivated to put an end to those talks in the first game of the series! BET THE PIRATES!
|08-09-12||Miami Marlins v. New York Mets -131||Top||1-6||Win||100||2 h 53 m||Show|
5* MLB EARLY BIRD SPECIAL TOP PLAY: Mets -131
The Mets R.A. Dickey is back in that same groove that caused everyone to go crazy about him early in the season. Dickey has a 2.70 ERA over his last three starts. I have no trouble backing him at home against any team in the league. Dickey is 6-1 at home this season with a 2.65 ERA. Adding even more value to this pick, is the fact that Dickey is 6-2 with a 3.44 ERA over 9 career vs the Marlins.
Believe it or not, New York is 11-1 in their last 12 Thursday games and a perfect 4-0 in Dickeys last 4 Thursday starts! BET THE METS!
|08-08-12||Arizona: I Kennedy v. Pittsburgh: K Correia +128||Top||6-7||Win||128||8 h 28 m||Show|
5* MLB UNDERVALUED MONEY LINE SMASH: Pirates +128
I believe the Pirates are showing some great value at home tonight. Coming off a loss last night to Arizona, Pittsburgh will be motivated to win the rubber match and take the series.
The fact that the Pirates loss last night, only adds more value to this play. Pittsburgh plays their best baseball at home, where they are 34-17 this season.
Pittsburgh is 16-5 in their last 21 during game 3 of a series, 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog, and 5-1 in Correias last 6 home starts. BET THE PIRATES!
|08-07-12||LA Anaheim: C Wilson -136 v. Oakland: B Colon||Top||4-10||Loss||-136||12 h 54 m||Show|
5* AL WEST BLOCKBUSTER GAME OF THE WEEK: Angels -136
I believe this is the prime spot to jump on the Angels with C.J. Wilson on the mound. In his last start, Wilson was got rocked at Texas, as the Rangers put up 8 runs on 10 hits in just over 5 innings. Whenever an elite pitcher like Wilson get's beat like that, more times than not he is going to bounce back with one of his better outings.
Wilson should feel pretty confident taking the ball in Oakland, as he threw 8 scoreless innings while allowing just 1 hit in a 5-0 win back on May 22. In 10 career starts vs the A's, Wilson has a 2.66 ERA and his team (Rangers/Angels) are 7-3 overall in those starts.
The other thing to factor in here is the A's will be countering with veteran Bartolo Colon. While Colon has a respectable 8-8 record with a 3.55 ERA, he has really struggled to pitch well at home. In 11 starts he is just 2-6 with a 4.50 ERA!
Los Angeles is 14-6 in their last 20 vs. American League West, 8-1 in Wilsons last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game, and 7-1 in Wilsons last 8 starts as a road favorite. BET THE ANGELS!
|08-06-12||Minnesota: S Diamond v. Cleveland: Mcallister -119||Top||14-3||Loss||-119||8 h 50 m||Show|
5* MLB NO DOUBT MONEY LINE WINNER: Indians -119
It's do or die time for the Indians, who have lost 9 straight games and they now trail the White Sox by 9.5 games in the AL Central. While Cleveland is still holding on to some hope, the Twins are pretty much out of it at 12.5 games back.
Tonight, I like Cleveland to put an end to their losing streak behind underrated starter Zach McAllister, In 11 starts this season, McAllister has a solid 4-3 record with a 3.42 ERA. Knowing that Minnesota will be countering with Scott Diamond, who recently threw a complete game shutout against the Indians, I expect McAllister to bring his A+ stuff tonight. On the other hand, I look for Diamond to come in a bit relaxed and possibly over-confident. BET THE INDIANS!
|08-05-12||Los Angeles Angels -104 v. Chicago White Sox||Top||2-4||Loss||-104||2 h 25 m||Show|
5* MLB BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Angels -104
I'm going to stick with the Angeles on Sunday. Los Angeles seems to save their best for Sunday. They are 7-1 in their last 8 Sunday games. Chicago on the other hand is 1-4 in their last 5 Sunday games.
On top of that Los Angeles is 9-4 in Harens last 13 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter! BET THE ANGELS!
|08-04-12||Los Angeles Angels +115 v. Chicago White Sox||Top||6-5||Win||115||8 h 2 m||Show|
5* MLB BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Angels +115
The Angels are 314-242 against the money line after a loss by 2 runs or less since 1997, while the White Sox are 0-5 in Floyd's last 5 starts vs. American League West. BET THE ANGELS!
|08-02-12||Philadelphia: C Hamels +103 v. Washington: R Detwiler||Top||0-3||Loss||-100||10 h 33 m||Show|
5* THURSDAY NIGHT MONEY LINE SMASH: Phillies +103
The Phillies haven't gave up on making the playoffs just yet. Philadelphia has won the first two games of their series at Washington, and I like their chances of finishing off the sweep on Thursday.
Philadelphia may be 14.5 games out of first place and another 12 out of a wild card spot, but there's still time to make a run. While their chances of making the playoffs might be slim, they should be one of the more motivated teams early in August, which is a big reason why I am backing them with ace Cole Hamels on the mound.
Hamels is coming off a couple of poor starts against the Giants and Braves, but there is plenty to like. Hamels is 6-2 on the road this season and has had his way with Washington in his career. He is 12-4 with a 2.48 ERA in 22 career starts vs the Nationals.
Philadelphia is also 7-3 in Hamels' last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game, 8-3 in Hamels' last 11 road starts, and 7-1 in Hamels' last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. BET THE PHILLIES
|08-01-12||New York Mets v. San Francisco Giants -1.5||Top||2-1||Loss||-100||11 h 12 m||Show|
5* MLB LATE NIGHT RUN LINE MASSACRE: Giants -1.5
*Analysis Coming Soon*
|07-31-12||Philadelphia: C Lee v. Washington: Strasburg -139||Top||8-0||Loss||-139||8 h 27 m||Show|
5* MLB BLOCKBUSTER MONEY LINE TOP PLAY: Nationals -139
This is simply too good of a price to pass up on. Any time you can get Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals at home for less than -150, you have to take it. The Nationals alone are 28-19 at home this season. Strasburg is 11-4 with a 2.76 ERA in 20 starts this year. Washington already beat the Phillies at home with Strasburg on the mound earlier this season (4-3).
Another thing you have to figure into this play, is the fact that the Phillies will be countering with Cliff Lee. Lee has been one of the most unlucky pitchers in all of baseball. He has a 1-6 record despite a 3.95 ERA. However, I believe it will be hard for Lee to focus on the task at hand, knowing he will likely be traded within the next 24 hours.
Washington is 8-2 in Strasburgs last 10 starts vs. National League East, 20-8 in their last 28 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. BET THE NATIONALS!
|07-30-12||Tampa Bay: D Price -126 v. Oakland: A Griffin||Top||3-4||Loss||-126||10 h 25 m||Show|
5* AL NO DOUBT MONEY LINE SMASH: Rays -126
Once again we find the Ray's listed at a great price with their ace David Price on the mound. I was all over Tampa Bay in Price's last start at Baltimore. He allowed just one earned run on seven hits while striking out 10 in an easy 10-1 win for the Rays.
With that win Price improved to 14-4 on the season. He is now tied with R.A. Dickey for the major league lead in wins for 2012. I fully expect him to be motivated to become the first pitcher to reach 15 wins this season.
There is plenty to like about Price in this start, as he is 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA over his last three starts and an impressive 7-2 with a 3.19 ERA in 10 road starts. Not to mention he is 2-1 with a solid 3.62 ERA in his career vs the A's.
Betting against the A's is definitely a bit of a risk, as no team has been playing better than Oakland in the month of July. However, the A's are coming off a loss and will be going up against arguably the best pitcher in the American League.
Tampa Bay is 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 17-4 in Price's last 21 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE RAYS!
|07-29-12||Los Angeles: C Kershaw -109 v. San Francisco: Vogelsong||Top||4-0||Win||100||6 h 41 m||Show|
5* NL WEST BLOCKBUSTER MONEY LINE SMASH: Los Angeles Dodgers -109
I will gladly back Clayton Kershaw on the road at this price. While Kershaw will be taking on division rival San Francisco, there is plenty to like. Kershaw has a 3.38 ERA in division games, a 2.37 ERA in day games, and the Dodgers are playing good baseball. They have won each of the first two games of the series and 7 of their last 10 overall.
Los Angeles is 22-5 in Kershaw's last 27 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower, 7-2 in his last 9 Sunday starts, 9-2 in his last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 37-17 in his last 54 starts vs. National League West. BET THE DODGERS!
|07-27-12||Cincinnati Reds v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10||Top||3-0||Loss||-110||9 h 12 m||Show|
5* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR: Reds/Rockies OVER 10
I expect a lot of runs in tonight's showdown between the Reds and the Rockies. Cincinnati comes in having won seven straight and are averaging 5 runs/game during the streak. Look for the Reds offense to put up another big number tonight, as they get ready to face Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz is 1-5 with a 4.98 ERA in nine starts. Cincinnati will send out Bronson Arroyo, who has a respectable 3.98 ERA over 19 starts. However, Arroyo has not had much success pitching at Colorado. His team has ended up on the losing end in each of his 4 starts at Coors Field. In his last two starts in Colorado, he has allowed 13 runs on 15 hits in just 5.3 innings of work. I wouldn't be surprised if this game was over the total by the end of the 5th inning. BET THE OVER!
|07-26-12||Tampa Bay Rays -110 v. Baltimore Orioles||Top||2-6||Loss||-110||2 h 26 m||Show|
5* MLB EARLY BIRD BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Rays -110
I won big on the Rays last night with David Price on the mound, as Tampa cruised to an easy 10-1 win. My money is on the Rays to finish off the sweep and take down the Orioles once again on Thursday.
Tampa Bay is showing some pretty great value with James Shields on the mound. Shields has had his ups and downs this season, but is coming off a strong start at home against the Mariners. He allowed just 3 runs on four hits in nearly 8 innings of work.
Shields is 9-5 lifetime against the Orioles with a 3.54 ERA in 14 starts. He should have no trouble shutting down a struggling Baltimore offense tonight. The Orioles have been held to a single run in each of their last three games.
If that isn't enough reason to like the Rays in this matchup, Tampa Bay is 16-5 in Shields' last 21 starts during game 3 of a series and 15-5 in Shields' last 20 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. BET THE RAYS!
|07-25-12||Tampa Bay: D Price -132 v. Baltimore: M Gonzalez||Top||10-1||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
5* AL EAST MONEY LINE GAME OF THE MONTH: Rays -132
The Rays are showing some excellent value as a small road favorite. Tampa Bay will send out their ace David Price against unproven 28-year-old rookie Miguel Gonzalez.
Price should be able to help the Rays build off last night's 3-1 win. He is 13-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 19 starts this season and has really been throwing the ball exceptionally well of late. He is a perfect 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA over his last three starts. On top of that, Price is 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Orioles. Tampa Bay is 4-1 in Price's 5 career starts at Baltimore.
Gonzalez has been hit or miss in his first three starts. He was impressive in his first start at Los Angeles, holding the Angels to just 1 earned run in 7 innings. However, he hasn't been as effective in his last two starts, giving up 5 runs on 13 hits and 7 walks in 12.3 innings against the Tigers and Indians.
Tampa Bay is 37-16 in Prices last 53 starts vs. American League East, 21-6 in his last 27 starts as a road favorite and 8-1 in his last 9 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. BET THE RAYS!
|07-24-12||Milwaukee: Z Greinke v. Philadelphia: C Lee -128||Top||6-7||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
5* NL BLOCKBUSTER MONEY LINE SMASH: Phillies -128
The Phillies are finally back to full strength and this is the point of the season where I expect them to make a big run to get back in the playoff hunt. Philadelphia scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Brewers 7-6 on Monday. Those are the type of wins that can really get a team headed in the right direction.
Philadelphia will start Cliff Lee against Milwaukee's Zack Greinke. Lee has arguable been the most unlucky starter in 2012. Despite a respectable 3.72 ERA and 1.159 WHIP, he is just 1-6 in 16 starts. Now that the Phillies offense has got back Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, I expect Lee to start seeing more run production. In my opinion, this is the absolute perfect spot to jump on the Cliff Lee bandwagon before he gets it going and oddsmakers start listing him at -200 again.
Philadelphia is 10-2 in Lees last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 9-2 in Lees last 11 starts vs. National League Central and 8-2 in Lees last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. BET THE PHILLIES!
|07-23-12||Chicago (N): Samardzija v. Pittsburgh: E Bedard UNDER 8||Top||2-0||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
5* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR: Cubs/Pirates UNDER 8
The Chicago Cubs managed to score 1 run while getting swept in a 3-game series against he Cardinals over the weekend. I look for the offensive struggles to continue in their first game at Pittsburgh. The Pirates will send out lefty Erik Bedard, who has been a completely different pitcher at home. On the season, Bedard is 5-10 with a 4.55 ERA. In 8 starts at home, he is 2-3 with a 2.95 ERA. On top of that, Chicago is 10-18 against left-handed starters, averaging just 3.5 runs per game.
I also look for the Pirates to struggle to put up a ton of runs in this matchup, as they get ready to face Jeff Samardzija. While Samardzija is just 6-8 with a 4.57 in 18 starts, he is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in the month of July.
Pittsburgh is 30-14 UNDER in home games this season and 22-9 UNDER in home games against right-handed starters this season. The Cubs are a perfect 8-0 UNDER when Samardzija starts a game played at night. BET THE UNDER!
|07-22-12||Texas: M Harrison -105 v. LA Anaheim: D Haren||Top||4-7||Loss||-105||9 h 6 m||Show|
5* Sunday Night Baseball Top Play: Rangers -105
|07-20-12||San Francisco: T Lincecum v. Philadelphia: V Worley -119||Top||7-2||Loss||-119||9 h 17 m||Show|
5* FRIDAY NIGHT MLB MONEY LINE GAME OF THE YEAR
The Phillies are showing some real value at home tonight. The Giants Tim Lincecum is having an absolute disaster of a season, yet the Giants continue to be overpriced when he takes the mound.
While Lincecum threw 8 scoreless innings in his last start, it came against the lowly Astros. He threw seven scoreless against the Dodgers back at on June 27th, only to follow that up by giving up 8 runs in 3.3 innings at Washington. It's also worth noting that both those starts against the Astros and Dodgers came at home. Lincecum is an awful 1-6 with a 9.00 ERA on the road this season.
The Phillies will send out Vance Worley, who is working off back-to-back solid starts at home against Atlanta and at Colorado. The thing I really like about Worley in this spot, is the success he has had against the Giants. He is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.750. Worley is an impressive 8-2 in Worleys last 10 starts vs. National League West. BET THE PHILLIES!
|07-19-12||Cleveland Indians v. Tampa Bay Rays -163||Top||0-6||Win||100||14 h 43 m||Show|
5* MLB EARLY BIRD BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Tampa Bay -163
Even though I lost backing the Rays on Wednesday, I will once again take Tampa Bay in a big bet situation. Whenever oddsmakers list the Rays as a huge home favorite, it's usually for good reason. They are 97-45 in their last 142 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
My main focus in Thursday's game is fading Cleveland starter Ubaldo Jimenez with the first pitch scheduled for 12:10 EST. Those that have faded Jimenez in day starts are up big. He is 5-14 against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. In 8 day starts in 2012, he has a 6.09 ERA and 1.511 ERA.
Making this play even stronger, is the fact that the Rays will counter with their ace David Price. While Tampa has been struggling of late, Price has continued to pitch extremely well. He has a 2.11 ERA over his last three starts, is 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA at home, and 12-4 with a 2.80 ERA overall. Unlike Jimenez, Price doesn't lose his touch in early games. He has a 2.25 ERA in four days starts this season. BET THE RAYS!
|07-18-12||Cleveland Indians v. Tampa Bay Rays +100||Top||10-6||Loss||-100||8 h 1 m||Show|
5* AL BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Rays +100
I will gladly back the Rays at home at this price. Tampa Bay has a huge advantage on the mound. The Rays will send out Jeremy Hellickson, who despite a 4-6 record has a 3.48 ERA in 16 starts. Hellickson also has a respectable 3.12 ERA at home. It's only a matter of time before his bad luck turns around.
The Indians will counter with Justin Masterson, who is 6-8 with a 4.14 ERA in 19 starts. Even though Masterson threw 7 scoreless innings at Toronto in his last start, he is just 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA on the road.
The other thing to look at, is how these pitchers have done in previous matchups. Masterson simply hasn't pitched well against the Rays. He is 1-6 with a 8.06 ERA and 1.858 WHIP. Earlier this season he allowed 8 runs on nine hits in just 4.3 innings of a 3-10 loss. Hellickson on the other hand, has a dominant 1.38 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two starts vs Cleveland!
The Indians are just 7-15 in Masterson's last 22 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, while Tampa Bay is 7-1 in their last 8 games as a home underdog and 9-3 in Hellickson's last 12 starts during game 3 of a series. BET THE RAYS!
|07-17-12||San Francisco Giants v. Atlanta Braves -143||Top||9-0||Loss||-143||8 h 3 m||Show|
5* MLB NO DOUBT MONEY LINE SMASH: Braves -143
The Braves have won 7 in a row and I really like their chances of making it 8 straight with a win over the Giants tonight.
Atlanta will send out the resurgent Jair Jurrjens, who has returned to form since making his way back to the rotation. Jurrjens is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA over his last three starts.
While Jurrjens keeps the Giants offense in check, I look for the Braves' bats to put up a big number on Barry Zito. While Zito has been better than expected so far this season, he is coming off a rough start at Pittsburgh, where he allowed four runs in just five innings of work. Zito has been very streaky this season. One bad start usually leads to another, and I'll take my chances on him struggling against a red-hot Atlanta club. BET THE BRAVES!
|07-16-12||Arizona Diamondbacks v. Cincinnati Reds -130||Top||5-3||Loss||-130||8 h 39 m||Show|
5* NL MEGA MONEY LINE TOP PLAY: Reds -130
This is a great spot to jump on the Reds at home. Cincinnati comes in having won six straight to take a 1-game lead over the Pirates in the NL Central. While the Reds are playing some of their best ball, the Diamondbacks just got swept by the Cubs over the weekend. Arizona's offense managed a total of just three runs the entire series.
I'll take my chances on the surging Bronson Arroyo to keep Arizona's bats quiet tonight. Arroyo has yielded three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and is coming off a complete come shutout in his last start. BET THE REDS!
|07-15-12||Philadelphia Phillies -122 v. Colorado Rockies||Top||5-1||Win||100||5 h 57 m||Show|
5* MLB SUNDAY AFTERNOON MONEY LINE SMASH: Phillies -122
I'm backing Cole Hamels to bring the Phillies a win on Sunday. Philadelphia hasn't had a lot to be excited about this season, but Hamels has been one of those bright spots. He is 10-4 with a 3.24 ERA and should benefit from some run support in Colorado. BET THE PHILLIES!
|07-14-12||Arizona: J Saunders v. Chicago (N): R Dempster -130||Top||1-4||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
5* NL BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Chicago Cubs -130
I'll back the Cubs on Saturday in what very well could be the final game for starter Ryan Dempster. A lack of run support and a stint on the DL has a lot of people overlooking one of the elite pitchers in 2012. Dempster is just 4-3 overall, but he leads the league with a 1.99 ERA. He hasn't allowed an earned run in three straight starts. He was just as good coming off the DL as he was before.
I expect his best effort tomorrow, knowing that he will likely be traded within the coming week. The other big thing to like here, is the Cubs are playing a lot better baseball of late. Chicago may be 19 games under .500, but they are 10-4 over their last 14, including Friday's 8-1 win in the series opener. BET THE CUBS!
|07-13-12||Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5||Top||7-10||Loss||-119||9 h 27 m||Show|
5* NL CENTRAL OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR: Pirates/Brewers UNDER 7.5
There is no way I'm passing up on the UNDER at 7.5 with two of the NL's top pitchers facing off. The Pirates James McDonald is 9-3 with a 2.37 ERA in 19 starts, while the Brewers Zach Greinke is 9-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 19 starts. Greinke is also 4-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.860 WHIP in seven starts at home.
I think the four day layoff for the All-Star break is only going to make it that much harder for runs to come by. While pitchers are use to getting 4-5 days of rest, position players are use to playing every day. I think the layoff will have both offenses struggling to find their rhythm, especially against the likes of these two starters. BET THE UNDER!
|07-06-12||Los Angeles: C Kershaw -110 v. Arizona: Collmenter||Top||3-5||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
5* Dodgers/Diamondbacks NL West Game of the Month: Dodgers -110
The Dodgers have won three straight and four of five overall, while the Diamondbacks have lost six straight. With these two teams headed in opposite directions going into the All-Star break, there is no way I'm passing up on Los Angeles tonight with Clayton Kershaw on the mound.
Not only is Kershaw coming into the game throwing extremely well (1.71 ERA L3 starts), he has owned Arizona over his career. He is 7-2 with a 1.92 ERA in 11 starts. BET THE DODGERS!
|07-05-12||Houston: B Norris v. Pittsburgh: J Karstens -130||Top||0-2||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
5* NL BLOCKBUSTER MONEY LINE SMASH: Pirates -130
This is an unbelievable price to get the Pirates at. Pittsburgh has already won the first three games of the series and my money is on them to sweep the Astros with yet another win tonight. The Pirates are one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won 7 of their last 8. The Astros on the other hand, have lost 7 straight. BET THE PIRATES!
|07-03-12||New York Yankees -110 v. Tampa Bay Rays||Top||4-7||Loss||-110||8 h 13 m||Show|
5* MLB ABSOLUTE MONEY LINE SMASH: Yankees -110
I'm going to back the Yankees again on Tuesday, despite the fact that they lost 3-4 on Monday. It may come as a surprise to see the Yankees favored tonight, but I think it's for good reason.
New York will send out Ivan Nova, who is 12-0 with a 3.17 ERA in his last 16 starts away from home dating back to last season (6-0, 3.44 ERA in '12).
That's not the only reason I like Nova and the Yankees. Nova is 5-0 with 2.37 ERA over his last seven starts and is 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA (2-0, 1.80 ERA in '12) in six career starts vs the Rays.
Tampa Bay will counter with James Shields, who has been living on the edge here of late. Shields has a respectable 3.98 ERA over his last three starts, but it could be a lot worse.
In his last start against the Tigers, he somehow managed to hold Detroit to just 4 earned runs on 14 hits. He has managed to give up just 9 earned runs on 30 hits in just under 20 innings of work (19 2/3). If he continues to pitch like that against the Yankees, he is going to get killed. New York will turn those hits into home runs.
It really doesn't come as much of a surprise to see that Shields is just 5-13 with a 4.55 ERA in 23 career starts vs the Yankees. In his three starts against New York this season, he has allowed 16 runs on 20 hits. BET THE YANKEES!
|07-02-12||New York Yankees +124 v. Tampa Bay Rays||Top||3-4||Loss||-100||8 h 14 m||Show|
5* AL EAST BLOCKBUSTER TOP PLAY: Yankees +124
This is the perfect spot to jump on the Yankees as a road underdog. New York comes in having won 7 of their last 9 and 20 of their last 26. They are clearly headed into the All-Star break playing their best baseball.
The same can not be said for the Rays. Tampa Bay has just 1 win in their last 7 games and only 3 in their last 12.
The big reason the Yankees are underdogs in this one, is the fact they will start Freddy Garcia. In his final three starts before being sent to the bullpen, Garcia had a 15.98 ERA. He didn't make it past the second inning in each of his last two, while giving up 11 runs on 12 hits.
However, Garcia seems to have figured it out. He has a 1.56 ERA in 10 relief appearances, and I'll take my chances on him shutting down a Rays offense that is averaging just 2.5 runs over their last 7. Garcia is also 9-2 with a 3.33 ERA in 16 career starts vs Tampa Bay.
While the Yankees have won 4 of 6 in the series (all in New York), I look for them to be motivated from getting swept in their most recent trip to Tampa Bay.
New York is 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog, and 5-1 in Garcias last 6 starts as a road underdog. BET THE YANKEES!
|06-30-12||Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5||Top||2-3||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
5* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR: Phillies/Marlins UNDER 7.5
We will gladly take the extra 1/2 run and play the under with Cole Hamels and Mark Buehrle on the mound. Hamels has a 3.03 ERA and is working off back-to-back strong starts, where he allowed a total of 2 earned runs in 14 innings. Buehrle is working with a 2.80 ERA at home and he also comes in off a strong start.
The UNDER is 19-8-1 in Hamels' last 28 road starts vs. a team with a losing record and 20-8-1 in Marlins last 29 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. BET THE UNDER!
|06-29-12||New York (N): R Dickey -133 v. Los Angeles: A Harang||Top||9-0||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
5* MLB MONEY LINE ABSOLUTE SMASH: Mets -133
I simply can't pass up the opportunity to back one of the best pitchers in 2012 at the price. R.A. Dickey had a rough outing at New York in his last start, but that really isn't all that surprising. Dickey is 11-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.914 WHIP. He's also 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA on the road. The guy has been pretty much unhittable all season and one bad start isn't going to scare me away. BET THE METS in what should be an easy win for New York!
|06-28-12||Cleveland: Mcallister v. Baltimore: W Chen -149||Top||7-2||Loss||-149||8 h 57 m||Show|
5* AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH: Orioles -149
This may seem like a lot to lay on the Orioles, but I think this is a fair price when you consider all factors.
The Orioles are 21-17 at home this season, and you can bet they will be motivated to bring their fans a W after getting swept in a quick two-game series against the Angels.
The Indians on the other hand, are playing some of their worst baseball of the season. They have lost five straight and are just 1-5 on their current 10 game road trip.
Cleveland has managed to score just 11 runs during their losing streak, and there's a pretty good chance they will continue at the plate with lefty Wei-Yin Chen taking the rubber for Baltimore. Chen is 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA and is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 7 starts at home.
That's not what has me in love with the Orioles. The Indians are 5-16 against left-handed starters in 2012. In those 21 games they are averaging just 3 runs and hitting only .218 as a team. BET THE ORIOLES!
|06-27-12||Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox -140||Top||4-10||Win||100||3 h 15 m||Show|
5* EARLY BIRD SPECIAL: Red Sox -140
The Red Sox are on an absolute tear of late. They have won 8 of their last 10 overall and I'm confident the winning will continue on Wednesday.
It's been a difficult season to back Boston starter Jon Lester. He is just 4-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 15 starts. However, he has been very effective of late. Over his last three starts he has pitched into the 7th inning and not allowed more than 3 earned runs.
If Lester can simply match that production, we are in great shape. Boston has been crushing the baseball, averaging 7.1 runs/game over their last 7 games.
They will face lefty Ricky Romero, who is an impressive 8-1 on the season, but has a lofty 4.34 ERA and and 1.343 WHIP. Romero has really struggled against Boston over his career. He is just 5-6 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.779 WHIP. It really isn't all that surprising considering the Red Sox are 16-9 against left-handed starters this season.
Boston is 21-8 in Lesters last 29 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game (won 5-1 yesterday), 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite, and 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. BET THE RED SOX!
|06-26-12||St.Louis Cardinals -116 v. Miami Marlins||Top||5-2||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
5* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH: Cardinals -113
I was fortunate to get a win with St Louis last night, as the Cardinals scored four runs in the top of the 9th to force extra innings and then two more in the top of the 10th to get the win. They have now won four straight overall. In those four wins, St Louis has scored a ridiculous 38 runs.
I have been all over the Cardinals in each of their last 3 games, and there is no way I'm backing off them tonight. With last nights come-from-behind win, St Louis is playing with a ton of confidence. Adding even more value to the Cardinals is the fact that the Marlins have now lost 16 of their last 19 overall.
St Louis also appears to have a clear edge on the mound, as they send out Kyle Lohse against Carlos Zambrano.
Lohse is 6-2 with a 2.85 ERA in 15 starts this season. He is 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA on the road and is 1-1 with a strong 1.66 ERA over his last 3 starts!
Zambrano is just 4-5 with a 4.01 ERA in 14 starts, but it gets a lot worse. He is just 1-3 with a 6.12 ERA at home and 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.787 WHIP over his last 3 starts. BET THE CARDINALS!
|06-25-12||St.Louis Cardinals -111 v. Miami Marlins||Top||8-7||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
5* MLB BLOCKBUSTER MONEY LINE SMASH: Cardinals -111
I won big on St Louis on Saturday and Sunday, and I will continue to back the Cardinals at this price. St Louis is absolutely murdering the baseball right now. They just go done scoring 30 runs in their 3-game series with the Royals.
Hard to believe the Marlins will be able to slow them down tonight. Miami will start Ricky Nolasco, who has got off to a miserable start in 2012. Nolasco is just 6-6 with a 5.16 ERA in 14 starts. He has been even worse of late, posting a 8.81 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in his last three.
If that isn't enough, Nolasco is 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.676 WHIP in six career starts (1-5 ML) vs the Cardinals.
St Louis will counter with Jake Westbrook, who is a respectable 6-6 with a 3.83 ERA in 14 starts. There is plenty to like about Westbrook in this spot. He has a 2.93 ERA in 7 starts on the road, he is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA over his last 3, and 1-0(3-1 ML)with a 2.96 ERA vs the Marlins. BET THE CARDINALS!
|06-24-12||St.Louis Cardinals -145 v. Kansas City Royals||Top||11-8||Win||100||4 h 6 m||Show|
5* MLB EARLY BIRD TOP PLAY: Cardinals -145
The Cardinals have completely dominated the first two games of this series. They won 11-4 on Friday and came back and rolled over the Royals 8-2 yesterday. I'll roll the dice on St Louis Sunday with Lance Lynn on the mound.
Lynn has been one of the big surprises so far this season. He is 10-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 14 starts. While Lynn is coming off one of his worst starts, allowed five runs in five innings in a 3-6 loss at Detroit, he was probably trying to do a little too much against Verlander. He is 6-2 with a 2.93 ERA in nine road starts, giving me plenty of reason to think he will bounce back.
Even if Lynn isn't on top of his game, there's a pretty good chance the Cardinals offense gives him enough run support to win this game. The Royals will send out Jonathan Sanchez, who is 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA in eight starts and 0-1 with a 8.04 ERA in four starts at home. BET THE CARDINALS!
|06-23-12||St.Louis Cardinals -138 v. Kansas City Royals||Top||8-2||Win||100||4 h 35 m||Show|
5* MLB EARLY AFTERNOON MONEY LINE SMASH: Cardinals -138
The Cardinals offense exploded in an 11-4 win on Friday, and I will easily back them on Saturday with Adam Wainwright on the mound. Wainwright is starting to look more and more like the pitcher who was once considered one of the best in the game. He is 1-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three starts. Wainwright just got done throwing a gem against the Royals in his last start, allowing just one earned run on five hits over seven innings.
The Royals will send out Luis Mendoza to counter against Wainwright for the second time this season. Mendoza pitched well in a 3-5 loss, allowing two runs in six innings at St Louis, but has really struggled at home. Mendoza is 0-1 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.842 WHIP at Kauffman Stadium.
Look for the Cardinals offense to keep on rolling and spot Wainwright plenty of runs in this one. St Louis is 14-5 in Wainwrights last 19 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. BET THE CARDINALS!
|06-22-12||Cleveland Indians -131 v. Houston Astros||Top||2-0||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
5* Indians/Astros Blockbuster Top Play
The Indians come into tonight's game against the Astros off a sweep of Cincinnati and are now a .5 game ahead of Chicago for the AL Central division lead.
While a lot of teams could lose focus against a poor team like the Astros, Cleveland is just 4.5 games ahead of 4th place Kansas City. I look for them to stay focused and confident and roll over a struggling Astros team. Houston is just 1-5 in their last six and 3-7 in their last 10.
It's also a pretty good price on starter Ubaldo Jimenez, who has regained some of that magic from 2010. On the season, Jimenez is just 3-3 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.938 WHIP on the road, but in his two most recent starts away from home against Detroit and St Louis, he has allowed just two earned runs on 10 hits in just under 14 innings of work.
While Jimenez has been surging of late (2.75 ERA L3 starts), Houston's Lucas Harrell has been hit extremely hard. Harrell has a 6.27 ERA over his last three starts, allowing 10 runs on 13 hits over his two most recent starts.
Cleveland is 27-12 in their last 39 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 7-3 in Jimenezs last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record, and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE INDIANS!
|06-21-12||Tampa Bay Rays v. Washington Nationals -134||Top||2-5||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
5* INTERLEAGUE BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH: Nationals -134
Washington was able to put an end to their four-game losing streak behind ace Stephen Strasburg on Wednesday, and I look for this team to build off that performance with Gio Gonzalez taking the ball in the series finale. Prior to their losing streak, the Nationals had won six straight and 9 of 11 overall.
Gonzalez is 8-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 13 starts this season. It's also worth noting that the Nationals are 3-0 in games he hasn't been a part of the decision. While Strasburg steals a lot of the spotlight, Gonzalez has without question been one of the elite pitchers in baseball this season.
Tampa will counter with Matt Moore, who hasn't quite got things figured out. Moore is just 4-5 with a 4.16 ERA in 13 starts. He has pitched better of late, but has continued to struggle on the road. In four starts away from home, he has a 5.02 ERA and 1.543 WHIP.
The Rays are just 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, while Washington is 38-16 in their last 54 interleague games as a favorite and 35-16 in their last 51 games following a win. BET THE NATIONALS!
|06-20-12||Los Angeles Dodgers v. Oakland A's UNDER 7||Top||1-4||Win||100||13 h 41 m||Show|
5* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR: Dodgers/A's Under 7
The average total for a game played in Oakland this season is 7.2 runs. Last night these two teams combined for just 3 runs, and I think it will be a lot of the same tonight.
Two underrated starters will take the mound in this one, as the Dodgers send out Nathan Eovaldi against Tom Milone. Eovaldi is 0-2 in four starts, but has a ridiculous 1.82 ERA. To no surprise, all four of his starts have gone under the total. Milone is 6-5 with a 4.48 ERA in 13 starts, but 5-1 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in five starts at home. The Under is 4-1 in Milone's five home starts. BET THE UNDER!
|06-19-12||Baltimore Orioles v. New York Mets -151||Top||0-5||Win||100||9 h 55 m||Show|
5* MEGA MONEY LINE INTERLEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH: Mets -151
I feel like this is the perfect spot to back Johan Santana and the Mets. New York opened up the series with a 5-0 win behind another one-hit performance from R.A. Dickey. When a team gets shutdown like the Orioles did on Monday, it can send the entire offense into a funk.
Santana has been brilliant in his return to the rotation. He is 4-3 with a 3.23 ERA in 13 starts, but he tends to save his best for when he takes the mound at home. Santana is 3-1 at Citi Field with a 1.30 ERA and 0.910 WHIP. The last time he started in front of the home fans, Santana threw the Mets first no-hitter.
Another reason to like the Mets tonight, is they should be able to pile on the runs against Tommy Hunter, who is 3-3 with a 5.58 ERA in 12 starts and 0-2 with a 8.31 ERA in five away starts. BET THE METS!
|06-18-12||San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Angels -102||Top||5-3||Loss||-102||11 h 23 m||Show|
5* Giants/Angels MLB BLOCKBUSTER MONEY LINE SMASH: Angels -102
A lot of people are going to want to jump on the Giants with Matt Cain on the mound, as he just threw a perfect game in his last start. There's no question Cain has been pitching lights out, but more times than not a pitcher who accomplishes something like a perfect game or no hitter, struggles in their following start.
Cain has to face an Angels team that has won seven of their last nine. Also this game is being played in Los Angeles, which means Cain will have to face a DH instead of the opposing starting pitcher.
With all that said, Angels' starter Jerome Williams is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in six home starts this season. BET THE ANGELS!
|06-16-12||Kansas City Royals v. St.Louis Cardinals -124||Top||7-10||Win||100||5 h 30 m||Show|
5* MLB EARLY BIRD WEEKEND SPECIAL: Cardinals -124
The Cardinals will be extra motivated to bring home a W after losing 2-3 Friday night. St Louis has responded well to a loss, going 4-1 in their last five following a defeat.
I also expect the Cardinals offense to put up a big number on Kansas City starter Bruce Chen, who is just 2-3 with a 5.50 ERA in seven road starts. Adding to this is the fact that the Cardinals are 21-9 in their last 30 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. BET ST LOUIS!
|06-15-12||Cincinnati: B Arroyo v. New York (N): D Gee -125||Top||7-3||Loss||-125||8 h 49 m||Show|
5* MLB MEGA MONEY LINE TOP PLAY: Mets -123
Both teams come in swinging the bats extremely well, and both are riding three game-winning streaks as a result. I'm ready to lay down a big bet on New York to keep their streak going, as I believe they have the clear edge on the mound.
The Mets will send out Dillon Gee (4-4, 4.42 ERA) against Bronson Arroyo (2-4, 3.79 ERA). The season stats look pretty even, but that isn't the case over the last month-plus. Gee is 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA over his last five starts, pitching into the seventh inning in all five. Arroyo is 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA over his last six starts. BET THE METS!
|06-14-12||Milwaukee Brewers -116 v. KAN ROYALS||Top||3-4||Loss||-116||9 h 29 m||Show|
5* INTERLEAGUE MOUND MISMATCH - MLB PLAY OF THE WEEK: Brewers -116
This is a great spot to jump on the Brewers. Milwaukee is going to come into tonight's game extremely motivated after back-to-back 1-run losses to open the series against the Royals. On the other hand, with a series win already in the bag, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Kansas City wasn't looking ahead to their showdown against St Louis this weekend.
The Brewers clearly have the edge on the mound in this matchup, as they send out Shaun Marcum (5-3, 3.50 ERA, 12 starts) against Luke Hochevar (3-7, 6.57 ERA, 12 starts).
Hochevar has been a good pitcher to fade at home. He is 0-4 with a 10.23 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in five starts (Royals have lost all 5).
There is a lot more to like about Marcum. He is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA over his last three starts and has an impressive 2.84 ERA in six starts on the road. If that isn't enough to convince you, Marcum is 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in five career starts vs the Royals. BET THE BREWERS!
|06-13-12||Philadelphia Phillies -159 v. Minnesota Twins||Top||9-8||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
5* MLB MEGA MONEY LINE TOP PLAY: Phillies -159
While the Phillies have struggled to find ways to win games of late, just 1-9 in their last 10 games, I'll take my chances on Cole Hamels getting Philadelphia back on track.
Hamels is 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 starts this season, but what I like in this matchup is the fact that Hamels is 4-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in five starts on the road.
Look for Hamels to get plenty of run-support with the Twins starting P.J. Walters. In six starts, Walters is 2-1, but has a 4.42 ERA and 1.418 WHIP. He has a 6.46 ERA and 2.087 WHIP in his last three starts. He's got a lot of help from his offense, which I don't see happening tonight! Lay the juice. BET THE PHILLIES!
|06-12-12||Boston Red Sox +100 v. Miami Marlins||Top||2-1||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
5* Red Sox/Marlins Interleague Money Line Smash: Red Sox +100
This is a great spot to jump on the Red Sox, as they send out the red-hot Clay Buchholz against the struggling Miami Marlins. Buchholz is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP over his last three starts. Have to like his chances of keeping it going against a Marlins offense that has produced just 14 runs over their last seven games combined. During that stretch the Marlins are just 1-6. BET THE RED SOX!
|06-11-12||Los Angeles Angels +107 v. Los Angeles Dodgers||Top||3-2||Win||107||12 h 14 m||Show|
5* Angels/Dodgers Rivalry Beatdown: Angels +107
The Angels have won three straight as they continue to play at a very high level after a slow start to the season. Tonight they send out one of their top pitching prospects in Garrett Richards. In his first start, Richards allowed just one run on four hits while striking out 8 in seven innings of work. I look for him to be the difference maker in this one. BET LOS ANGELES!
|06-10-12||Detroit Tigers v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 9||Top||7-6||Win||102||11 h 11 m||Show|
5* Sunday Night Baseball Total Annihilator of the Month: Tigers/Reds OVER 9
Look for a lot of runs in tonight's showdown between the Tigers and Reds. Great American Ballpark is one of the more hitter-friendly places in the league. Cincinnati will went out Homer Bailey against the Tigers Drew Smyly. Both of these starters come in struggling of late. Bailey has a 4.50 ERA over his last 3 starts and Smyly a 5.82 ERA. Bailey has definitely felt the effects of pitching at home. He has a 4.39 ERA on the season, but at home that ERA jumps up to 5.67.
With the game on ESPN, I look for the hitters to show up focused and ready to put on a show. The OVER is Over is 6-1-2 in Tigers last 9 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter and 8-0-1 in Reds last 9 games as a home favorite. BET THE OVER!
|06-08-12||Kansas City Royals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -132||Top||2-4||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
5* BLOCKBUSTER MLB MOUND MISMATCH: Pirates -132
I have no problem laying a little juice on the Pirates at home against the Royals. Pittsburgh is absolutely rolling right now. They have won 9 of their last 12 overall and are a quiet 29-27.
When you take a closer look at these two starts, you understand why the Pirates are getting some respect on this line. Pittsburgh will send out lefty Erik Bedard, who has thrived at home with a 2.42 ERA and 1.269 WHIP. Combine that with the fact that the Royals are hitting just .256 and only averaging 2.7 runs against left-handed pitching, and you can see why I expect a dominant performance out of Bedard tonight.
The Royals will counter with Luke Hochevar, who is 3-6 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.544 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He allowed six runs on five hits in just under five innings of work in his last start. It was the fourth time this season he has allowed six runs or more. I'll take my chances on the Pirates putting up 4-5 runs, which should be more than enough to bring home the W! BET THE PIRATES!
|06-07-12||Atlanta Braves v. Miami Marlins -133||Top||8-2||Loss||-133||9 h 13 m||Show|
5* NL EAST BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE BEATDOWN: Marlins -133
The Marlins are showing some solid value on Thursday, as they try and avoid getting swept by Atlanta at home. The Marlins will send out Mark Buehrle, who has thrived at home with a 3-1 record to go with a 3.37 ERA. That's not why we are fading Atlanta. The Braves will start Mike Minor, who has struggled to get anything going in 2012. Minor is 2-4 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.466 WHIP. He doesn't have a very strong history against the Marlins. He has a 7.65 ERA and 1.699 WHIP, while his team has won just one of four starts. BET THE MARLINS!
|06-06-12||San Francisco Giants -124 v. San Diego Padres||Top||6-5||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
5* NL WEST BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE BEATDOWN: Giants -124
The Giants are showing some incredible value as a small road favorite with Madison Bumgarner on the mound. Bumgarner is coming off a quality start at home against the Cubs, where he allowed just two runs and struck out 11 over 8 innings. Now he faces as Padres team that is 2-8 over their last 10 games. San Diego is 4-16 against left handed starters in 2012. BET THE GIANTS!
|06-03-12||Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5||Top||6-5||Loss||-113||4 h 26 m||Show|
5* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR: Pirates/Brewers UNDER 7.5
I'll take my chances on the Pirates and Brewers going under the posted total of 7.5 on Sunday. Pittsburgh will send out James McDonald, who is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA against Michael Fiers of Milwaukee. Fiers was better than expected in his first start, allowing just two runs on five hits over seven innings against the Dodgers. With Pittsburgh averaging just 3 runs a game on the season, Fiers should be in line for another strong outing. McDonald hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a single start this season, and is coming off a great start against the Reds where he didn't allow a run over eight innings. Runs should be extremely hard to come by in this matchup. BET THE UNDER!
|05-30-12||New York (A): I Nova v. LA Anaheim: E Santana OVER 8||Top||6-5||Win||100||11 h 28 m||Show|
5* YANKEES/ANGELS ESPN2 OVER/UNDER GAME OF THE MONTH: OVER 8
The Yankees and Angeles have combined for 23 runs in the first two games of this series. With Ivan Nova and Ervin Santana expected to start Game 3 of the series, I look for these two teams to put up another big number tonight.
Nova is 5-2 on the year, but he has a 5.47 ERA and 1.572 WHIP. He has allowed at least 5 earned runs in four of his last six starts. Look for a red-hot Angeles offense to score at least 5 runs in this one.
Santana is just 2-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 10 starts. He has pitched well of late with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts, but those starts came against the A's, Padres and Mariners. Three of the worst offenses in baseball. Santana has really struggled against New York. He is 5-6 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.578 WHIP in 13 career starts vs. the Yankees. BET THE OVER!
|05-25-12||Washington Nationals v. Atlanta Braves -1.5||Top||7-4||Loss||-100||9 h 37 m||Show|
5* NL EAST RUN LINE GAME OF THE YEAR: Braves -1.5 +145
The Braves were just swept in a four-game series at Cincinnati to finish up a seven-game road trip. Despite the losing streak, Atlanta is still 26-20 overall. Rarely will you see the Braves suffer a losing streak longer than 3 games.
Look for Atlanta to come into tonight's game against the Nationals and lay a beating on their division rivals. The Braves will send out Tim Hudson, who is pitching lights out since his return. In Hudson's last three starts he is 2-1 with a 1.25 ERA and 1.015 WHIP. His only loss came in a 0-1 loss on the road. Hudson didn't allow more than two runs in all three starts.
The big reason I am playing the 1.5 run line, is the fact that Hudson is 14-3 with a 2.05 ERA over 23 career starts against the Nationals.
In order to win by two runs, you have to score plenty of runs, and I look for Atlanta to do just that. Washington will send out Ross Detwiler, who has really struggled after a fast start. Detwiler is 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in his last three starts. BET THE BRAVES!
|05-23-12||Washington: E Jackson v. Philadelphia: C Hamels -155||Top||1-4||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
5* MLB DYNAMITE MONEY LINE TOP PLAY: Phillies -155
Even with the Phillies having lost four straight, I'll lay the juice on Cole Hamels to put an end to the streak tonight. Hamels might not be the biggest name in the Phillies starting rotation, but he has been the best so far this season. He is 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in eight starts. If that isn't enough, Hamels is 11-4 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 21 career starts vs the Nationals.
Washington will counter with Edwin Jackson, who has got off to a surprising start in 2012. He is 101 with a 3.31 ERA in eight starts. However, the Nationals are just 2-6 in those eight starts, and it's only a matter of time before Jackson hits a rough patch. He has faced Philadelphia twice in his career, and has got hit hard, posting a 5.73 ERA and 1.455 WHIP.
This is the time of year where Hamels rarely suffers a loss. He is 28-6 in the month of May over his career. Philadelphia is 7-2 in Hamels' last 9 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 5-0 in Hamels' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. BET THE PHILLIES!
|05-16-12||New York (A): H Kuroda -125 v. Toronto: K Drabek||Top||1-8||Loss||-125||9 h 37 m||Show|
5* AL EAST GAME OF THE MONTH: Yankees -125
The Yankees are showing some great value as a small road favorite against Toronto. Despite a loss at Baltimore last night, New York is 6-3 over their last seven games. The offense is finally starting to put it together. The Yankees have scored five runs or more in four of their last six games, all of which resulted in a win.
New York's sluggers will take aim at Kyle Drabek, who is 2-4 with a respectable 3.66 ERA, but his 1.501 WHIP lets me know hard times are on the way. In Drabek's last three starts he is 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.826 WHIP. If you look back over the last two seasons, Drabek is 0-2 with a 7.91 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in three starts against the Yankees.
While Drabek's has taken a turn for the worse, New York starter Hiroki Kuroda is starting to turn it around. Kuroda is 3-4 with a 3.56 ERA in seven starts, but is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in his last three outings.
Last night's loss actually helps us here. New York is 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. They are also 9-4 in their last 13 vs. American League East and 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series. BET THE YANKEES!
|05-11-12||Atlanta: M Minor v. St Louis: J Garcia -135||Top||9-7||Loss||-135||9 h 37 m||Show|
5* BRAVES/CARDINALS NL BLOCKBUSTER GAME OF THE WEEK: Cardinals -135
I'll gladly back the St Louis Cardinals at home with Jaime Garcia on the mound. Garcia is 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA on the season, but has been on top of his game pitching in front of his home crowd. Garcia's ERA is an impressive 2.57 at home this season. He has also had a lot of success against Atlanta, going 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts.
Atlanta will send out Mike Minor, who is coming off two awful starts against the Pirates and Rockies. In those two starts, he has allowed 15 runs on 18 hits in just over 11 innings of work. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in four starts on the road this season.
St Louis seems to play their best against the Braves. The Cardinals are 11-3 against Atlanta over the last three seasons and a perfect 7-0 at home. BET THE CARDINALS!
|05-08-12||Boston Red Sox v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5||Top||4-6||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
5* MLB OVER/UNDER BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH: OVER 8.5
The Red Sox and Royals combined for 16 runs last night, as Boston continued to crush left-handed pitching. The Red Sox lit up Jonathan Sanchez (L) for six runs in just three innings. Tonight Boston faces lefty Danny Duffy, who hasn't had a lot of success against Boston. In two career starts, Duffy has a 7.45 ERA and 1.655 WHIP.
The Royals offense should also help the total go over in this one. Boston will start Daniel Bard, who is just 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA. His ERA jumps up to 5.25 on the road, and I expect Kansas City to score at least 3-4 runs in this one.
The Over is 12-2-2 in Red Sox last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter and 5-0 in Royals last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. BET THE OVER 8.5!
|05-07-12||Los Angeles Angels -1.5 v. Minnesota Twins||Top||8-3||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
5* MLB AL BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE WEEK: Angels -1.5
I don't like to play a lot of run lines, but tonight presents a golden opportunity to lay the 1.5 on the Angeles with Jered Weaver on the mound.
In his last start, Weaver threw the first no hitter of his career against the same Twins team he will face tonight. It moved Weaver to 4-0 on the season with an impressive 1.61 ERA and 0.784 WHIP. He is now 6-2 with a 3.73 ERA vs. Minnesota, and I don't see the Twins having much success tonight. The Twins come in having lost 11 of their last 13 overall and are averaging just 3.2 runs per game against right handed starters this season.
In order to cover a run line bet, you need the offense to put up a solid number. I think the Angeles will do just that, as they face the struggling Francisco Liriano. In five starts this season, Liriano is 0-4 with a 9.97 ERA and 2.216 WHIP. All four of his losses have come by at least four runs.
The Angels offense hasn't been great early on, but Albert Pujols finally ended his home run drought with a blast on Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that single home run ended up leading to a bunch of bombs for Pujols over the next couple weeks. BET THE ANGELS!
|05-03-12||Toronto: B Morrow v. LA Anaheim: D Haren -121||Top||5-0||Loss||-121||11 h 15 m||Show|
5* MLB AL MONEY LINE SMASH: Angels -121
The Angels are showing some great value as a small home favorite with Dan Haren on the mound. Los Angeles got off to a horrible start, but appear to be turning the corner. They have won four of five, including last night's 9-0 win behind a no hitter from Weaver. While the no hitter is nice, I was more interested in the Angles setting a season-high with 15 hits.
The offense doesn't figure to have to do a whole lot for the Angles to add another win to their total tonight. Haren has been lights out of late, going 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in his last three starts. The last time he face the Blue Jays, he allowed just one run over 8 innings.
Los Angeles is 35-17 in their last 52 games as a home favorite and 5-1 in Harens last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE ANGELS!
|05-02-12||Arizona: J Saunders +115 v. Washington: E Jackson||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||8 h 2 m||Show|
5* NL NO DOUBT MONEY LINE GRAND SLAM: Diamondbacks +115
The Arizona Diamondbacks are an absolute steal at +115 tonight. The Nationals are getting a lot of respect from their great start, but this team is really struggling. Washington has lost five straight. They are really struggling to score runs. They are averaging just 1.4 runs/game during their losing streak.
Getting that offense going against Arizona's Joe Saunders doesn't seem likely. Saunders is 2-1 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in three starts, but he has been even better on the road. Saunders has yet to allow a run on the road this season, throwing 16 scoreless innings against the Padres and Marlins.
The Arizona offense has been picking up the pace of late, as they come in averaging 7.3 runs/game over their last three. Look for the Diamondbacks to put a few crooked numbers on the board and let Saunders do the rest. BET THE DIAMONDBACKS!
|04-30-12||Seattle: F Hernandz v. Tampa Bay: Hellickson UNDER 7||Top||2-3||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
5* AL OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR: Mariners/Rays UNDER 7
I expect a very low scoring game between the Mariners and Rays tonight. Seattle will send out Felix Hernandez, who is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA in five starts this season. He has allowed a total of 3 ER over his last 22 innings of work. Hernandez also has a 2.42 ERA in nine career starts vs the Rays.
Tampa Bay will counter with Jeremy Hellickson, who is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in 2012. He has been unbelievable at home, posting a 0.61 ERA and .954 WHIP in two starts. Hellickson is also 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA in three career starts vs. Seattle. BET THE UNDER!
|04-27-12||Tampa Bay Rays v. Texas Rangers -133||Top||8-4||Loss||-133||10 h 32 m||Show|
5* AL BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH: Rangers -133
The Rangers hold the best record in the majors at 15-4 and are showing some incredible value as a small home favorite against the Rays.
The Rangers offense come in averaging 5.6 runs per game and I look for them to put up a solid number against Tampa's James Shields. While Shields is off to a strong start in 2012, he has struggled against Texas in his career. He has a 4.08 ERA over 10 career starts. In his last start at Texas he was rocked for 7 runs in just 5 innings of work.
Texas will counter with Matt Harrison, who is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and .0969 WHIP. He threw six scoreless innings against the White Sox in his only start at home this season and has a strong 1.38 ERA and 0.769 WHIP in two career starts vs the Rays.
Tampa is just 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series, 1-4 in Shields' last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150, and 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter. BET THE RANGERS!
|04-26-12||Boston Red Sox +110 v. Chicago White Sox||Top||10-3||Win||110||10 h 45 m||Show|
5* AL BLOCKBUSTER GAME OF THE WEEK: Red Sox +110
Chicago's Philip Humber gets ready to make his first start since pitching a perfect game against the Mariners last Saturday. While he appears to have the edge over Felix Doubront, I really like the Red Sox to win this game.
Boston comes in having won three straight. Thanks in large part to their offense, which has piled on 24 runs over during the streak. I look for Humber to have a major letdown after all the emotions that go with such a historic accomplishment. Humber hasn't exactly had the best of luck against Boston. In two career starts, he has a 5.83 ERA and 1.459 WHIP.
Doubront has been solid over his first three starts. Posting a 3.94 ERA. He really looked sharp in his last start against the Yankees, allowing just one over six innings with an impressive seven strikeouts.
It should also help the Red Sox that the White Sox just got done playing a 14 inning game against the A's last night.
Boston is 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. BET THE RED SOX!
|04-25-12||San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds -129||Top||2-4||Win||100||8 h 16 m||Show|
5* NL BLOCKBUSTER GAME OF THE WEEK: Reds -129
The Reds are starting to come alive offensively. They come in having won two straight and four of their last five overall. In those four wins they are averaging 7 runs a contest.
The Giants will try and slow down the Reds' bats with Barry Zito. While Zito has got off to a fast start, he lasted just five innings at New York in his last outing. Zito has really struggled against the Reds. He is just 3-3 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in nine career starts.
Cincinnati will counter with Bronson Arroyo, who has been outstanding in his last two starts. Arroyo has allowed just three runs on eight hits over his last 15.3 innings of work. He also has a nice 3.02 ERA over 9 starts against the Giants. BET THE REDS!
|04-24-12||Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -135||Top||6-9||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
5* NL CENTRAL BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH: Brewers -135
My strongest bet for Tuesday is on the Milwaukee Brewers as a relatively low-priced home underdog against the not so good Houston Astros. Milwaukee opened up the series with a 6-5 win last night and are now 12-4 over their last 16 home games against Houston.
The Brewers Randy Wolf has got off to a bit of a sluggish start, but his two best starts have came at home. The big reason I am backing Wolf in this one, is his 2.98 ERA and 1.072 WHIP in 19 career starts vs the Astros.
Houston will counter with Bud Norris, who has also got off to a slow start. Norris has a 4.14 ERA and 1.379 WHIP in 7 career starts vs the Brewers. He has allowed 6 runs in just 10 innings in two career starts at Milwaukee.
The Brewers are 13-1 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 over the last 2 seasons. BET THE BREWERS!
|04-23-12||New York (A): C Sabathia +125 v. Texas: D Holland||Top||7-4||Win||125||9 h 24 m||Show|
5* YANKEES/RANGERS NO DOUBT MONEY LINE WINNER: Yankees +125
Rarely do you find the Yankees listed as an underdog and it's even more rare to find that when they have their ace C.C. Sabathia on the mound. Sabathia hasn't got off to a great start, but has continued to get better as the season goes on. Sabathia is 11-3 in 19 career starts against the Rangers. New York should be rested up and ready to go after last night's game against the Red Sox was postponed. BET NEW YORK!
|04-21-12||Colorado Rockies v. Milwaukee Brewers -123||Top||4-9||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
5* MLB PREMIUM TOP PLAY: Brewers -123
I really like the Brewers to come away with a win at home. Milwaukee has lost back-to-back games at home, each by one run. The Brewers are 65-30 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons, so the odds are definitely in our favor. Milwaukee's offense should have no trouble putting up runs against Drew Pomeranz. In Pomeranz first start he gave up five runs in just over 4 innings, giving up nine hits and two walks while striking out just three batters. Milwaukee's Marco Estrada had a much better start to the year, giving up just two runs over seven innings. BET THE BREWERS!
|04-17-12||Cincinnati Reds v. St.Louis Cardinals -118||Top||1-2||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
5* NL CENTRAL GAME OF THE MONTH: Cardinals -118
The St Louis Cardinals have been one of the early surprises in 2012, and I look for them to stay hot behind starter Kyle Lohse. In two starts Lohse has allowed two runs on just six hits. There's no denying that Lohse has come out of the gates looking better than ever, and I will ride his hot streak as long as the Cardinals continue to be undervalued in his starts.
Cincinnati will counter with Johnny Cueto who is just 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA in 14 career starts against St Louis. BET THE CARDINALS!
|04-15-12||LA Anaheim: J Williams +165 v. New York (A): I Nova||Top||5-11||Loss||-100||10 h 56 m||Show|
5* SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL AL GAME OF THE WEEK: Angels +165
The Angeles are a legit World Series contender and there is no reason they should be listed at +165. New York's Ivan Nova has been impressive, but he is a bit overrated due to all the run support he gets from the Yankees offense. Jerome Williams doesn't quite match up to the top four starters in the Angeles rotation, but he is more than capable of keeping them in the game. When it comes down to it, you simply can't pass up on these odds. BET THE ANGELS!
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