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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-05-12||Los Angeles: C Kershaw -149 v. San Diego: E Volquez||Top||5-3||Win||100||10 h 58 m||Show|
5* NL WEST GAME OF THE WEEK: Dodgers -149
Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, and getting him at this price against the lowly Padres is too good to pass up. I strongly believe the Dodgers are better than the experts have them projected. Kershaw is 7-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Padres! BET THE DODGERS!
|10-27-11||Texas Rangers +108 v. St. Louis Cardinals||Top||9-10||Loss||-100||9 h 44 m||Show|
5* WORLD SERIES GAME OF THE YEAR: Texas Rangers +108
Look for the Rangers to close out the Cardinals and bring home the World Series title Wednesday night. The Rangers have gained a ton of momentum by winning the final two games at home to take a 3-2 lead.
This game will feature a starting pitching rematch of Game 2 between Colby Lewis of Texas and Jaime Garcia of St Louis. While neither pitcher recorded a decision in that game, Texas would go on to win the game 2-1. The Rangers were listed at -115 in the game, but this time around they are listed at +106. The public is all over St Louis in a must win situation, but that doesn't mean they are the right play.
Garcia held the Rangers to no runs on three hits, but that was the first time the Rangers had faced the lefty. Texas is hitting .266 and averaging 5 runs a game against left-handed starters, and I expect them to fair much better this time around. Texas is 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter!
Texas is also 11-4 in their last 15 road games, 13-5 in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record, and 20-8 in their last 28 games following an off day. BET THE RANGERS!
|10-19-11||Texas Rangers +111 v. St. Louis Cardinals||Top||2-3||Loss||-100||8 h 34 m||Show|
5* World Series Game 1 Money Line Massacre: Texas Rangers +111
The Rangers made it all the way to the World Series last year, but were able to win just 1 game against San Francisco. I think that experience will make the difference in this series, as the Rangers know they still have a lot of work left to do.
These two teams are built very similarly. Both teams have above average starting pitching, but win games because of their ability to put runs on the scoreboard. Not to take anything away from St Louis, but the Rangers lineup is arguably the best in the game, especially with a healthy Nelson Cruz, who set an LCS record with six home runs against the Tigers.
The Cardinals have a couple of key players who could be hurting. Albert Pujols injured his wrist in the Cardinals final game against the Brewers, and starting pitcher Chris Carpenter has been dealing with elbow soreness.
|10-12-11||Texas Rangers -120 v. Detroit Tigers||Top||7-3||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
5* ALCS BOOKIE BEATDOWN: Texas Rangers -120
The Tigers were able to get back in the series with a win in game 3, but I look for the Rangers to take complete control of the series with a win this afternoon.
In order to beat the Rangers, you have to keep their offense in check. I have a hard time seeing Detroit's Rick Porcello accomplishing that in this game. Porcello finished with a 4.79 ERA and 1.394 WHIP in 32 starts this season, he had a miserable 5.66 ERA at home. In his lone playoff start against the Yankees, Porcello gave up four runs on five hits in six innings of a 10-1 loss.
The Rangers will counter with Matt Harrison, who has been solid throughout the entire season. Harrison is 7-4 with a 3.02 ERA on the road, and 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts. With the Rangers offense figuring to put up a solid 4-5 runs, Harrison should be able to hold Detroit in check and come away with a win.
Texas is 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, and 4-0 in Harrison's last 4 starts as a road favorite. BET THE RANGERS!
|10-11-11||Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers -128||Top||2-5||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
5* ALCS GAME OF THE YEAR: Detroit Tigers -136
The Rangers have to be happy about leaving Texas up 2-0, but those were two games that could have went either way. Now the series shifts to Detroit, where the Tigers are have won 11 of the last 15 against Texas. While the Tigers will live to fight another day if they lose tonight, the series is all but over. I expect another tight game in game 3, but this time I see the Tigers being the ones who find a way to win.
Detroit will send out Doug Fister, who they acquired in a mid-season trade from Seattle. After coming over from the Mariners, Fister went 8-1 with a 1.78 ERA. He did struggle after taking over the suspended game 1 against the Yankees, but bounced back by allowing just 1 ER in five innings of game 5 to help the Tigers advance to ALCS. Fister has been especially good at Tigers stadium, posting a 4-0 record with a outstanding 0.98 ERA in five starts.
While I expect Fister to quite the Rangers offense, I think Detroit will continue to have success against Rangers starter Colby Lewis, who is 2-2 with a 7.76 ERA and 1.913 WHIP in five career starts against the Tigers. In Lewis' only start at Detroit this season, he allowed 4 ER on 10 hits in just 4 innings of work.
Detroit is 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter, 6-2 in their last 8 playoff home games, and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE TIGERS!
|10-05-11||Philadelphia Phillies -120 v. St. Louis Cardinals||Top||3-5||Loss||-120||7 h 1 m||Show|
5* NL DIVISIONAL SERIES GAME OF THE YEAR: Philadelphia Phillies -120
The Cardinals are coming off a heartbreaking 2-3 loss in game 3. St Louis had multiple chances to take the lead and really take control of the series with a win, but couldn't get the big hit when they needed it most. The Cardinals had 12 hits to the Phillies 7, but left 14 runners on base. The pressure of coming through with a big hit will only be magnified by the fact that this is an elimination game for the Cardinals.
Philadelphia deep starting rotation is why everyone considered them to be the favorites in the NL, and I believe it is what is going to get them back to the NLCS. The Phillies will send out Roy Oswalt against Edwin Jackson.
Jackson has an impressive 2.49 ERA in 17 home starts between the Cardinals and White Sox, but his 1.449 WHIP shows he hasn't been as dominant as his ERA leads on. Jackson also comes into game with a 4.34 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in his last three starts, two of which were at home.
Oswalt on the other hand comes into the postseason pitching some of his best baseball of the season. He is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.871 WHIP in his last three starts. The big reason I am backing Oswalt tonight, is the veteran is 5-0 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 career postseason appearances.
Philadelphia is 21-6 in their last 27 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 19-7 in their last 26 playoff games as a favorite, and 5-0 in their last 5 Divisional Playoff road games. BET THE PHILLIES!
|10-04-11||Philadelphia Phillies -132 v. St. Louis Cardinals||Top||3-2||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
5* Phillies/Cardinals MLB Blue Chip Blowout: Phillies -132
Philadelphia will show why they are the best team in the NL with a big road win to take back control of the series against the Cardinals. Philadelphia has just the guy on the mound to make sure that happens.
Cole Hammels didn't exactly have great final month of the season, but this guy loves the spotlight of the postseason and I look for him to completely dominate the Cardinals lineup tonight. The Phillies are 4-1 in Hamels last five starts in St Louis. In his last visit to play the Cardinals, he threw eight shutout innings, allowing just one hit while striking out seven.
St Louis will counter with Jaime Garcia, who will be making his first ever playoff start. The lefty has had some nice success against the Phillies, but I question whether he is ready for the atmosphere and pressure that comes with pitching in the playoffs. The Phillies are 30-14 against a left-handed starter this season, and I believe they will find a way to win this game.
Philadelphia is 7-1 in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff road games. BET THE PHILLIES!
|09-28-11||Washington Nationals v. Florida Marlins +135||Top||3-1||Loss||-100||4 h 57 m||Show|
5* UNBELIEVABLE UNDERDOG: Florida Marlins +135
Washington is way overpriced in this game. They will send out ace Stephen Strasburgh, but he has only pitched more than 5 innings in one start all season. The Nationals aren't going to risk getting their star injured in the final game of the season. On the other side, Chris Volstad will take the mound for the Marlins and has really been strong of late. Volstad has a 2.16 ERA over his last four starts. One of those starts came against the Nationals, where he allowed just 1 ER on 6 hits in seven innings of work.
Florida is 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record and 10-3 in Volstads last 13 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. BET THE MARLINS!
|09-27-11||Washington Nationals v. Florida Marlins -152||Top||2-3||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
5* NL MOUND MISMATCH GAME OF THE MONTH: Florida Marlins
*Analysis Coming Soon*
|09-21-11||Texas Rangers -150 v. Oakland A's||Top||3-2||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
5* AL WEST GAME OF THE WEEK: Texas Rangers -150
The Rangers are going to continue to play their best baseball until they have locked up the AL West. That makes them a very strong play on Wednesday with ace C.J. Wilson on the mound.
Wilson is 16-7 with a 2.88 ERA on the season, 8-5 with a 2.23 ERA on the road, and 2-1 with a amazing 0.39 ERA and 0.943 WHIP in his last three starts. Wilson will battle against Brandon McCarthy, who has also pitched well this season. McCarthy is 9-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 6-3 with a 2.77 ERA at home. What makes Texas such a strong play is their offensive attack. The Rangers have scored 7 or more runs in five of the last eight games. They put 13 against McCarthy and the A's earlier this month. McCarthy is just 1-3 with a 4.76 ERA in six career starts against Texas.
The Rangers are 41-14 in their last 55 games as a favorite, 12-3 in their last 15 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, and 25-9 in Wilsons last 34 starts vs. a team with a losing record. BET THE RANGERS!
|09-20-11||San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -123||Top||1-2||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
5* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH: Los Angeles Dodgers -123
The Los Angeles Dodgers don't have a shot in the NL West, but they do have the opportunity to ruin the Giants chances of catching the Arizona Diamondbacks. LA would love nothing more than to end the Giants 8-game winning streak and knock them back even farther in the standings.
The Dodgers will send out Clayton Kershaw against Tim Lincecum in what figures to be a great pitchers duel. Both of these pitchers are two of the best the NL has to offer, but I give Kershaw the upper-hand t home.
Kershaw is 19-5 with a 2.30 ERA on the season, and will be motivated to get to that exclusive 20-win mark. He has been brilliant at home with an 11-1 record and 1.72 ERA. He has also been outstanding of late, going 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.650 WHIP. Kershaw is 5-1 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 career starts against the Giants.
Lincecum is just 13-12 on the season, but has an outstanding 2.59 ERA. The Giants have lost two of his last three starts, including 1-2 loss at home to Kershaw and the Dodgers. Lincecum is 4-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 career starts against the Dodgers.
Kershaw is 10-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 14 starts against the NL West this season and 22-7 against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. BET THE DODGERS!
|09-14-11||Los Angeles Angels -156 v. Oakland A's||Top||4-1||Win||100||3 h 19 m||Show|
5* AL MOUND MISMATCH GAME OF THE WEEK: Los Angeles Angels -156
The Angels avoided losing their third straight with a 6-3 win over the A's on Tuesday, and I expect them to have an even easier time bringing home a W with Jered Weaver taking the mound tonight.
Weaver is 16-7 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 30 starts this season. He is coming off a brilliant start against the Yankees, where he allowed just 1 ER on 3 hits with 11 strike outs over 8 innings. The A's will counter with Rich Harden, who is 4-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.361 WHIP in 12 starts this season. Harden has been roughed up of late, posting a 7.63 ERA and 1.826 WHIP over his last three starts.
The Angels are 38-14 in their last 52 games as a favorite, 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, and 7-1 in Weavers last 8 starts vs. American League West. BET THE ANGELS!
|09-13-11||Colorado Rockies v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5||Top||1-2||Loss||-105||9 h 44 m||Show|
5* MLB RUN LINE GAME OF THE YEAR: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -105
Milwaukee snapped a five game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Phillies on Sunday. I look for this team to return from their day off ready to put together a nice little run to end the season. I really feel like the Brewers are lock to win this game by at least 2 runs,as they send out Zack Greinke against Esmil Rogers.
Greinke is 14-6 on the season, but is a perfect 10-0 with a 3.19 ERA in 12 home starts. The Brewers are a perfect 12-0 in this games, and have won by at least two runs in 8 of those starts. I look for the Brewers offense to have a big game against Rogers, who is just 5-5 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.823 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He has been awfully bad of late, going 0-3 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.778 WHIP in his last three stats.
Greinke is 15-5 against the run line in home games after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. BET THE BREWERS!
|09-07-11||Boston Red Sox v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5||Top||10-11||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
5* AL OVER/UNDER GAME OF THE WEEK: Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 9.5
Look for there to be plenty of runs scored in the Red Sox/Blue Jays showdown Wednesday night. Both teams starters have not pitched well this season and are are going up against two strong offenses in a hitter friendly park.
Boston will start Tim Wakefield, who is 6-6 with a 5.14 ERA this season, 2-4 with a 5.03 ERA on the road, and 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in his L3 starts.
Toronto will counter with Brandon Morrow, who is 9-10 with a 4.78 ERA on the year, 4-8 with a 6.38 ERA at home, and 0-3 with a 7.87 ERA in his L3 starts. Morrow has a 11.14 ERA in five career starts against the Red Sox, with an average final total of 15 runs!
The OVER is 6-0 in Morrows last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 6-0 in Wakefields last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. BET THE OVER!
|09-06-11||Atlanta Braves v. Philadelphia Phillies -119||Top||3-6||Win||100||7 h 14 m||Show|
5* NL GAME OF THE MONTH: Philadelphia Phillies -119
The Phillies have won 6 of their last 8, including an impressive 9-0 win on Monday. The Braves haven't been playing their best, going just 3-5 in their last eight games. Philadelphia is an impressive 47-22 at home this season and I really like their chances of adding to that total tonight.
The Phillies will send out Vance Worley, who is 10-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 17 starts this season. He is an outstanding 5-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in 9 home starts and 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts.
The Braves will also send out a very good pitcher in Tim Hudson, but he hasn't been nearly as good on the road this year. Hudson is 14-8 with a 3.05 ERA on the year, but just 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 11 road starts. Atlanta is just -7 in Hudsons last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Phillies are 6-0 in Worleys last 6 starts as a home favorite, 7-0 in Worleys last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 8-0 in Worleys last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. BET THE PHILLIES
|08-31-11||New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox -165||Top||5-9||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
5* AL EAST GAME OF THE MONTH: Boston Red Sox -165
I really like the Red Sox to bounce back with a big win at home over the Yankees on Wednesday. New York had the starting pitching advantage in game 1, but the Red Sox are the ones in control tonight.
Boston will send Josh Beckett to the mound against the Yankees for the fifth time this season. Boston is 4-0 in four starts this season. He has pitched twice against the Yankees at home, allowing just 1 ER in 14 innings. That really isn't much of a surprise considering he has a 1.95 ERA at home this season.
The Yankees will counter with Phil Hughes, who had looked great before getting crushed by the A's for six runs in 2.7 innings of work. Hughes has not had much luck against the Red Sox, going 1-3 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.813 WHIP in seven career starts.
Boston is 38-15 in their last 53 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 13-3 in Beckett's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 25-8 in their last 33 vs. American League East. BET THE RED SOX!
|08-30-11||Philadelphia Phillies -180 v. Cincinnati Reds||Top||9-0||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
5* NL GAME OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia Phillies -180
I really like the Phillies to bring home another win against the Reds on Tuesday. Philadelphia will start ace Roy Halladay, who has watch his team lose in each of his last two starts. The Phillies are 20-6 in Halladay's starts this season, and I will bet the bank that they don't lose three straight starts tonight.
Halladay has a 2.56 ERA on the season, a 2.86 ERA on the road, and is 2-1 with a 2.64 and 1.154 WHIP against the Reds. The Reds will counter with Bronson Arroyo, who has pitched great of late with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts. I look for that trend to turn, as Arroyo holds a 5.13 ERA at home (2 of L3 starts have been on road) and is 1-6 with a 6.80 ERA and 1.689 WHIP against the Phillies.
Philadelphia is 43-15 in their last 58 games as a favorite, 11-2 in Halladays last 13 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, and 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central. BET THE PHILLIES!
|08-29-11||San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -165||Top||1-4||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
5* NL West Mound Mismatch: Los Angeles Dodgers -165
This is a great spot to lay the juice on the Dodgers. Despite losing 6-7 on Sunday, LA has won 5 of their last 6 overall. The Padres come into town off four straight losses where they scored a combined 3 runs.
Don't expect the Padres offense to catch fire tonight, as they go up against Clayton Kershaw, who is 16-5 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.023 WHIP. Kershaw has been outstanding at home, going 9-1 with a 1.87 ERA. He is also 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and .0909 WHIP in his last three starts. If that isn't enough, he has a 2.48 career ERA against the Padres.
San Diego will counter with Mat Latos, who doesn't seem to catch a lot of breaks. Latos is 6-12 on the season, despite a t 3.74 ERA. He has struggled a little more away from home with a 3.89 ERA on the road, and is just 1-5 in seven career starts against the Dodgers.
Los Angeles is 5-0 in Kershaws last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, and 5-0 in his last 5 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. BET THE DODGERS!
|08-28-11||Los Angeles Angels +107 v. Texas Rangers||Top||5-9||Loss||-100||10 h 19 m||Show|
5* AL WEST SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL BLUE CHIP GOTM: Los Angeles Angels +107
The Angels desperately need to win the rubber match of the series against the Rangers, as they still trail by 2 games in the AL West. They have just the pitcher on the mound to do that, as Jered Weaver gears up to face Colby Lewis and the Rangers.
Weaver is 15-6 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.967 WHIP this season. He has been great on the road with a 2.60 ERA and 0.942 WHIP. He is pitching on just three days rest, but he really didn't have to labor all that much in his last start, holding the White Sox to no runs on four hits in seven innnings of work.
Weaver is 3-1 against the Rangers this season, and has allowed just six runs in 29 innings of work. He seems to bring his best for division opponents, as he is 6-2 with a 1.38 ERA in 11 starts against the AL West this season.
Lewis is a respectable 11-9 with a 4.07 ERA in 2011, but is just 4-5 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 13 home starts. The pressure is on both starters in this one, and I will put my money on Weaver any day of the week.
Los Angeles is 7-3 in their last 10 during game 3 of a series, 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter, and 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win. BET THE ANGELS!
|08-27-11||Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Minnesota Twins||Top||6-4||Win||100||7 h 57 m||Show|
5* NL High Roller MVP: Detroit Tigers -1.5 -120
The Minnesota Twins haven't scored more than a single run in each of their last four games, and today they go up against likely AL Cy Young winning Justin Verlander. I can't see the Twins offense having a breakout game tonight, which has me loving Detroit on the run line at -120.
Minnesota is 4-17 in their last 21 games. 15 of those 17 losses came by 2 runs or more, which really makes the Tigers at -1.5 a strong play tonight. Verlander is 19-5 with a 2.27 ERA and .878 WHIP on the season and 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA and .923 WHIP in his last three starts. Verlander is 34-18 against the run line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings since 1997. He is also 9-0 as a road favorite of -125 or more this season, winning by an average score of 5.1-2.3. BET THE TIGERS!
|08-26-11||Oakland A's v. Boston Red Sox -152||Top||15-5||Loss||-152||8 h 12 m||Show|
5* AL MONEY LINE BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH: Boston Red Sox -152
The Red Sox come in swinging the bats extremely well. While winning the final three games against the Rangers, Boston put up 30 runs. They should have no trouble keeping that offensive fire power rolling against Gio Gonzalez of the A's.
Gonzalez is a respectable 10-11 with a 3.24 ERA on the season, but is a miserable 2-7 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.609 WHIP in 11 road starts. He has a 5.64 ERA in three career starts against the Red Sox, and I just can't see him shutting down this offense, especially when it is such a crucial game at home.
Gonzalez only gives up 5.36 hits per start on average, but the Red Sox are an impressive 22-9 vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season. The average score in these games has been Boston 6.4, Opponent 3.9.
There figures to be a lot of scoring in this game, as the oddsmakers set the total at 10 runs. Whenever a lot of runs are expected, it almost always favors Boston. They are 41-14 at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last 3 seasons. BET THE RED SOX!
|08-24-11||Oakland A's v. New York Yankees -1.5||Top||6-4||Loss||-126||9 h 32 m||Show|
5* AL GAME OF THE WEEK: New York Yankees -1.5 -126
The Yankees have absolutely owned the A's over the last 3 seasons. They are 21-5 overall and 11-3 at home. With Oakland beating New York 6-5 on Tuesday, the odds are heavily in our favor for a Yankees win tonight.
Not only do I think the Yankees will win this game outright, but I look for them to take complete control of this game and win by at least 3-4 runs. New York will send out C.C. Sabathia who is 17-7 with a 2.96 ERA on the season and 7-3 with a 3.12 ERA at home. In Sabathia's last two starts against the A's, he has allowed just 1 ER on eight hits in 15.7 inning of work. New York won both games by 5 runs.
The A's will counter with Trevor Cahill, who has not had much luck against New York. Cahill is 0-4 with a 13.50 ERA and 1.928 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees. In his last start at New York, he lasted just 2 innings, giving up 10 runs on nine hits.
Sabathia is 33-8 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score in those games was Sabathia 6.0, Opponent 2.8. BET THE YANKEES!
|08-23-11||Atlanta Braves -145 v. Chicago Cubs||Top||5-4||Win||100||20 h 21 m||Show|
5* NL No-DOUBT MOUND MISMATCH GOTM: Atlanta Braves -130
I cashed in on my free MLB pick on the Braves last night, and I am sticking with them again on Tuesday. Atlanta has what I believe to be a huge advantage on the mound with Mike Minor going up against Casey Coleman of the Cubs.
Minor is 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA in his last three starts, and looks like he has returned to form after missing around six weeks. Minor threw a six innings of shut out baseball in his last start against the Giants, striking out nine batters. Minor hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in two career starts against the Cubs, and if he can match that he will win this game easily.
Coleman is 2-5 with a 7.05 ERA and 2.037 WHIP in 10 starts this season, and is a miserable 0-3 with 12.56 ERA and 2.652 in four home starts. In his last start he gave up four runs on 10 hits in just 3.7 innings of work against the Astros. He gave up six runs on seven hits in his last start at home, and it's hard to imagine him coming out and shutting down the Atlanta offense tonight.
The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter, 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, and 6-0 in Minors last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. BET THE BRAVES
|08-22-11||Detroit Tigers -123 v. Tampa Bay Rays||Top||5-2||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
5* AL BOOKIE BEATDOWN: Detroit Tigers -128
The Tigers and Rays will both send out two very good starters on Monday, as Justin Verlander of Detroit takes on Jeff Niemann of Tampa. While Niemann is 8-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 16 starts this season, he has a ways to go to get to the level of Verlander, who is 18-5 with a 2.31 ERA in 2011. Verlander is 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 13 road starts and 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in his last three starts. Not to mention the Tigers are 8-1 in Verlander's 9 career starts against the Rays.
Both teams coming in on a winning streak, but the Tigers are the team that has more to play for. The Rays aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs, but they are 8 games back of New York and 7.5 back of Boston in the AL East. The Tigers hold a 4.5 game lead over the Indians and will be hungry to make sure they keep that lead with a win tonight.
Detroit is 10-2 in their last 12 games as a road favorite, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League East, and 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. BET THE TIGERS!
|08-21-11||St.Louis Cardinals -130 v. Chicago Cubs||Top||6-2||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
5* SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL BLUE CHIP GOTW: St Louis Cardinals -130
I really like the Cardinals to avoid getting swept by the Cubs on Sunday. St Louis doesn't have a great shot in the NL Central, but they should continue to play extremely hard until they are eliminated for good.
Neither team send out a great starter, as Jake Westbrook takes the mound for the Cardinals against Rodrigo Lopez. Westbrook is 9-7 with 4.81 ERA while Lopez is 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA.
What I like about the Cardinals is they are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, 7-2 in Westbrooks last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 4-1 in his last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
The Cubs are just 19-40 in their last 59 during game 3 of a series and 6-20 in their last 26 Sunday games.BET THE CARDINALS!
|08-20-11||New York Yankees -141 v. Minnesota Twins||Top||4-9||Loss||-141||6 h 16 m||Show|
5* AL ROAD WARRIOR BLOWOUT: New York Yankees -139
i really like the Yankees to beat the Twins again on Saturday. New York is 21-3 over their last 24 games against Minnesota and are 10-1 in their last 11 on the road against the Twins. The Yankees need this game to stay a .5 game ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East, while the Twins are all but eliminated from contention.
Both teams are sending out starting pitchers who have struggled this season, but the Yankees offense really makes them the stronger play. New York is 22-5 in their last 27 games vs. a left-handed starter, 20-8 in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record, 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road favorite. BET THE YANKEES!
|08-19-11||New York Yankees -164 v. Minnesota Twins||Top||8-1||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
5* AL NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR: New York Yankees -164
New York has absolutely owned the Twins over the last three seasons. The Yankees are 20-3 overall and 9-1 at Minnesota. New York comes into the second game of the series off a 8-4 win on Thursday and have now won six of their last eight, while the Twins are just 3-10 in their last 13. With the way the Yankees are swinging the bat (7.4 runs per game L5), they should have no trouble at all taking down the Twins again tonight.
Minnesota plans on sending out Kevin Slowey for his first start of the season. Anytime you get a pitcher who has missed that much time for whatever reason, it's usually a pretty safe bet to go against them early, especially when they are facing an offense as talented as the Yankees.
The Yankees will counter with Phil Hughes, who has strung together three quality starts in a row. Hughes is 2-1 in his last three with a 2.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. What makes Hughes a great pitcher to back, is he is fighting for a rotation spot so you know he is going to come out focused and ready to go.
The Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record, 8-2 in Hughes' last 10 starts vs. American League Central, and 35-16 in their last 51 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. BET THE YANKEES!
|08-18-11||Boston Red Sox -181 v. Kansas City Royals||Top||4-3||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
5* AL MONEY LINE BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR: Boston Red Sox -181
The Red Sox are all but a lock to win against the Royals on Thursday. Boston comes into the game having lost two straight, but that sets up a great time to load up on the Red Sox, as they haven't lost three in row since the middle of June.
The starting pitching matchup between Josh Beckett and Luke Hochevar is a rematch of a July 28 game in Boston, where Hochevar and the Royals took home a 4-3 win.
I am confident that result won't happen again. Even with the loss, Beckett is 6-1 with a 2.44 ERA in nine career starts against the Royals. Hochevar is just 2-3 with a 6.67 ERA against the Red Sox, with most of the damage coming when he pitches at home. Hochevar has allowed 11 runs, 15 hits and six walks over 10 2-3 innings while going 0-2 versus Boston at home.
Boston is 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 4-0 in Becketts last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200, and 23-8 after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival this season. BET THE RED SOX!
|08-17-11||Cincinnati Reds -138 v. Washington Nationals||Top||2-1||Win||100||7 h 27 m||Show|
5* NL BLUE CHIP GAME OF THE MONTH: Cincinnati Reds -138
I really like the Reds chances of evening the series against the Nationals with a big win on Wednesday night. I believe the Reds clearly have the advantage when it comes to starting pitching, as Cincinnati sends out Johnny Cueto against Ross Detwiler.
Cueto is 8-5 with an unbelievable 1.94 ERA this season and has a solid 2.47 ERA in 10 road starts this year. Detwiler is making just his fourth start this season. He is 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA and could be in for a real tough game against the Reds offense. Cincinnati has absolutely crushed left-handed starters this season. They are hitting .280 while scoring 5.7 runs per game. Look for them to give Cueto plenty of run support tonight.
Cincinnati is 6-2 in Cuetos last 8 starts as a favorite while the Nationals are just 2-11 in Detwilers last 13 starts following a team loss in his last start. .
|08-16-11||New York Yankees -155 v. Kansas City Royals||Top||9-7||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
5* AL GAME OF THE WEEK: New York Yankees -155
The Yankees are in a tie for first in the AL East with the Boston Red Sox, and can't afford to come out and not give it their all against the lowly Royals, who are 22-games under .500. The Yankees opened up the series with a 7-4 win on Monday, and I really like their chances of coming away with a win on Tuesday.
New York will send Ivan Nova to the mound, who has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. Nova is 11-3 with a 3.79 ERA in 19 starts this season, 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA in six road starts, and 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in his last three starts.
While Nova has pitched great, he has got unbelievable run support when he takes the mound. The Yankees have scored at least 5 runs in each of his last eight starts. They should have no trouble putting up another big number against Royals starter Danny Duffy, who is 3-6 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.619 WHIP. Duffy is also just 1-4 with a 4.50 ERA in seven home starts.
New York is 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record, 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. BET THE YANKEES
|08-16-11||San Francisco Giants v. Atlanta Braves -135||Top||1-2||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
5* NL GAME OF THE WEEK: Atlanta Braves -135
The Atlanta Braves pulled off a dramatic come from behind win to beat the Giants 5-4 on Monday, scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth. That along with some key factors should have Atlanta coming away with another win on Tuesday.
The Giants are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, and will likely be without their two best hitters in Pablo Sandoval and Carlos Beltran. That has me expecting big things out of Atlanta's Randall Delgado, who will be making his second career start tonight. Delgado's first start game against the Texas Rangers, where he gave up 3 ER in four innings. Delgado had just one bad inning in that start, and should have a much easier time against the Giants offense.
The Braves should also give Delgado some room to work with, as they go up against Jonathan Sanchez, who is fighting for his job at this point in the season. Sanchez is 4-7 with a 4.29 ERA and 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in his last three starts. He hasn't been able to complete five innings in each of his last four starts.
The Braves are 38-14 in their last 52 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 7-2 in their last 9 vs. National League West, and 19-6 in home games after 4 or more consecutive home games this season. BET THE BRAVES!
|08-15-11||Texas Rangers -150 v. Los Angeles Angels||Top||8-4||Win||100||11 h 29 m||Show|
5* AL WEST MOUND MISMATCH OF THE MONTH: Texas Rangers -150
The Rangers and Angels get ready to open up a big series Monday night. Texas leads Los Angeles by four games in the AL West, and could really put the Angels in a big hole. I think Texas will have no trouble opening up with a win, as they have the clear advantage on the mound.
Texas will start Alexi Ogando, who is 11-5 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.104 WHIP. While Ogando hasn't quite been up to par in his last couple starts, he is 4-3 with 3.10 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 0.63 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in two career starts against the Angels.
Los Angeles will start Garrett Richards, who will be making his second major league start tonight. Richards' first start came at New York against the Yankees and the youngster gave up six runs in just five innings of work. It won't be any easier for Richards to shut down the Rangers offense. Texas is averaging 6.5 runs over their last 10 games and have scored 7 or more in three straight.
Texas is 19-5 vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season, and 14-3 vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. BET THE RANGERS!
|08-14-11||Texas Rangers -122 v. Oakland A's||Top||7-6||Win||100||6 h 34 m||Show|
5* AL MONEY LINE SMASH: Texas Rangers -122
The Rangers come in having won 7 of their last 9 games overall, and have absolutely owned the A's in the first two games of their series, winning 9-1 on Friday and 7-1 yesterday. I look for the Rangers to continue their dominance with another easy win on Sunday.
The Rangers will start Matt Harrison, who is 4-4 with a 2.95 ERA on the road this season, and 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last three starts. Harrison is also 4-1 with a career 2.15 ERA against the A's. Oakland will counter with Rich Harden, who is 3-2 with a 4.07 ERA in seven starts this season. I really look for Harden to struggle against the Rangers powerful offense that is averaging 5.2 runs per game against right handed starters this season.
Texas is 11-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 12-3 in their last 15 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game, and 5-0 in Harrison's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
|08-13-11||Minnesota Twins +135 v. Cleveland Indians||Top||1-3||Loss||-100||18 h 37 m||Show|
5* AL UNBELIEVABLE UNDERDOG: Minnesota Twins +135
I really like the Twins to even the series at 1-1 on Saturday. Minnesota will send out Brian Duensing, who is 3-0 with a 3.10 ERA in three careers starts. While Duensing has owned the Indians, the Twins offense has had their way with Cleveland's Josh Tomlin. In two career starts against the Twins, Tomlin is 0-1 (team 0-2) with a 7.50 ERA and 1.417 WHIP.
The Indians are just 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win and 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Minnesota is 10-4 in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. BET THE TWINS!
|08-12-11||Texas Rangers -125 v. Oakland A's||Top||9-1||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
5* AL WEST GAME OF THE MONTH: Rangers -125
I really like the Rangers at this price with ace C.J. Wilson on the mound. Wilson comes in off a couple of bad starts, but I like his chances of shutting down the A's offense that averages just 3.9 runs a game. Wilson is 10-5 with a 3.24 ERA and 5-4 with a 2.66 ERA on the road this season.
The A's will counter with Brandon McCarthy, who has really pitched well of late,but has not had much luck against the Rangers. McCarthy has a 3.40 ERA on the season, but hold a 4.01 ERA in four career starts against Texas.
Texas is 9-1 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 12-3 in their last 15 vs. American League West, and 13-3 in Wilson's last 16 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
|08-11-11||Chicago White Sox -119 v. Baltimore Orioles||Top||6-3||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* AL ROAD WARRIOR BLOWOUT: Chicago White Sox -119
I will continue to back the White Sox as a small favorite on the road against the Orioles. While I lost on Chicago last night, that set's up a huge play on the White Sox tonight. Baltimore hasn't won back-to-back games since June 20th!
Chicago has the clear advantage on the mound in this one, as they send out Mark Buehrle against Chris Tillman. Buehrle is 9-5 with a 3.04 ERAon the season and 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts. Tillman is just 3-4 with a 4.85 ERA and 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA in his last three starts.
Chicago is 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter, 18-6 in Buehrles last 24 starts as a road favorite, and 7-1 in Buehrles last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Orioles are just 2-13 in Tillmans last 15 starts with 4 days of rest. BET THE WHITE SOX!
|08-10-11||Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees -1.5||Top||3-9||Win||106||8 h 39 m||Show|
5* AL GAME OF THE WEEK: New York Yankees -1.5 +106
This is a prime spot to take the Yankees on the run line. New York has lost three straight overall and have not scored more than four runs in each of their last four games.
The Yankees will start Ivan Nova, and the offense seems to catch fire whenever he takes the mound. New York is averaging 9.71 runs per nine innings in Nova's starts since June 10. Nova has also been very solid on his part of the deal, going 10-3 with a 3.75 ERA. He has been lights out of late with a 3-0 record and 1.83 ERA in his last three starts.
The Angels will send one of their top prospects to the mound in Garrett Richards, who is 12-2 with a 3.06 ERA in Double-A. While those are impressive numbers, I have a hard time believing the youngster is going to come out and pitch a gem in Yankee Stadium in his first big league start. Even the top pitchers in the game today struggle to pitch well against the powerful Yankees offense, who average 5.5 runs per game at home.
New York is 13-4 in their last 17 vs. American League West, 7-0 in Novas last 7 starts as a favorite, and 36-16 in their last 52 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. BET THE YANKEES!
|08-09-11||Chicago White Sox -121 v. Baltimore Orioles||Top||4-3||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
5* AL MOUND MISMATCH GAME OF THE MONTH: Chicago White Sox -121
The White Sox are showing unbelievable value for a second straight night. The pitching matchup in this game heavily favors Chicago to win this game in blowout fashion.
The White Sox will send Gavin Floyd to the mound, who got rocked in his last start at home against the Yankees. The thing is Floyd hasn't pitched that well at home all season. He has done most of his damage on the road, where he is 6-4 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.103 WHIP. Floyd also has strong history of bouncing back from a terrible start with a strong performance.
What really makes Floyd and the White Sox a strong play is the fact that Baltimore will be countering with Jo Jo Reyes, who the Orioles claimed off waivers. Reyes was cut by the Blue Jays after giving up 15 runs in his last two starts. Reyes is 5-8 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.581 WHIP this season, and it would be a complete fluke if he held the White Sox under 5 runs tonight.
The White Sox are 8-0 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 over the last 2 seasons and 9-0 in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BET THE WHITE SOX!
|08-08-11||Philadelphia Phillies -159 v. Los Angeles Dodgers||Top||5-3||Win||100||12 h 14 m||Show|
5* NL MONEY LINE BLOWOUT: Philadelphia Phillies -159
The Phillies are showing some solid value on the money line tonight against the Dodgers. Philadelphia will send their ace Roy Halladay to the mound, who is 14-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.022 WHIP this season. The Phillies are 19-4 in his 23 starts this season. Halladay also post a 3-1 record with a 2.03 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers. The Phillies are 8-1 in Halladay's last 9 starts as a road favorite of -151 to -200.
LA will counter with Hiroki Kuroda, who has pitched well all season but has got little to no run support. The chances of him getting run support with Halladay on the mound is slim to none. Kuroda is 7-13 with a 2.96 ERA this season, but has struggled at home, going 2-8 with a 3.48 ERA. The Dodgers are 1-6 in Kuroda's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Phillies are 37-15 in their last 52 vs. National League West, 36-15 in their last 51 vs. a team with a losing record, 40-12 in their last 52 games following a loss, and 13-3 in their last 16 games as a road favorite. BET THE PHILLIES!
|08-07-11||New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 9.5||Top||2-3||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
5* SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Yankees/Red Sox UNDER 9.5
I was all over the Yankees/Red Sox going over (9) on Saturday, and I feel like that offensive explosion (14 runs) has the total (9.5) set way to high for tonight's series finale on Sunday Night Baseball. With the series tied 1-1 and the intense rivalry that comes with every Red Sox/ Yankees game, I think this game is going to be a low scoring affair.
Josh Becket will take the mound for the Red Sox, who is supporting a 2.20 ERA on the season and 1.99 ERA at home this year. Beckett seems to really step up and pitch well in big games, and has allowed just two earned runs in 21 innings against the Yankees this year. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Beckett's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 5-0 in Beckett's last 5 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Yankees will counter Beckett with Freddy Garcia, who has really thrown the ball well this year. Garcia has a 3.17 ERA on the year, but has been lights out on the road with a 2.73 ERA in eight starts. The UNDER is 5-0 in Garcias last 5 road starts and 9-3-2 in his last 14 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. BET THE UNDER!
|08-06-11||New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9||Top||4-10||Win||100||6 h 11 m||Show|
5* GAME OF THE WEEK: Yankees/Red Sox OVER 9
After a low scoring affair on Friday, I look for these two high-powered offensive teams to easily reach 10 runs on Saturday. There isn't two better lineups in the game, and it really doesn't matter who is one the mound, runs are going to be scored.
For New York, they will send out C.C. Sabathia who is 16-5 with a 2.55 ERA this season. While Sabathia has been great this year, he has not pitched well against the Red Sox. He has allowed at least six runs in each of his last two starts, and is just 6-10 with a 4.40 ERA in 20 career starts against Boston. Sabathia is 10-3 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
Things have been even worse for Red Sox starter John Lackey, who has a 6.23 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Lackey hasn't had much luck against the Yankees, going 7-9 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in 24 career starts. Lackey could easily give up the nine runs himself to keep this game from going under. Lackey is 18-7 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. BET THE OVER!
|08-05-11||Philadelphia Phillies -113 v. San Francisco Giants||Top||9-2||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
5* NL MOUND MISMATCH GAME OF THE YEAR: Phillies -113
The Phillies are showing unbelievable value on the road against the Giants on Friday. Philadelphia will send Vance Worley to the mound, who has arguably been their best pitcher of late. Worley is 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in 14 starts this season, and 2-0 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in his last three outings. Worley was dominant in his lone start against the Giants(7/26), allowing just two runs on three hits while going the distance in 7-2 win.
The Giants will counter with Jonathan Sanchez, who is making his first start since June, 24. Rarely will starters come off the DL and pitch up to their capabilities in their first start back. Sanchez was just 4-5 with a 3.81 ERA in 16 starts. Even if Sanchez pitches better than expected, he is unlikely to have the arm strength to go deep in this game.
Philadelphia is 5-0 in Worley's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite, and 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
The Phillies have also been one of the best teams to back on Friday, posting a 36-16 record over their L52 Friday games. BET THE PHILLIES!
|08-04-11||St. Louis Cardinals -110 v. Florida Marlins||Top||7-4||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
5* NL MONEY LINE SMASH: St Louis Cardinals -110
The Cardinals are coming off a tough series in Milwaukee, but the Brewers are extremely tough to beat at home. The Marlins just finished up a an 8 game road trip at 6-2, but are just 23-30 at home this season.
St Louis is really showing some great value at -110 with Kyle Lohse on the mound. Lohse is 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.090 WHIP this season, and has pitched well on the road, going 6-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.130 WHIP. The Cardinals are 17-8 in Lohse's last 25 starts during game 1 of a series.
The Marlins are only 6-14 in their last 20 during game 1 of a series, and just 3-13 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record. They will send Clay Hensley to the mound, who has pitched well since being moved to the starting rotation, but he doesn't go deep into games and really struggled in his lone home start. BET THE CARDINALS!
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