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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins +10 v. Colts | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 31 m | Show |
5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins + It's been quite a run here of late for Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis has won 4 straight and went from a playoff afterthought at 1-5 to tied for the final Wild Card spot at 5-5. This recent run has the Colts way overvalued here against the Dolphins, as Indy has no business laying more than a touchdown. I get it's been bad for Miami, but they have been without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill since the end of September. Dolphins started out 3-2 with Tannehill at quarterback and will certainly be more competitive with him under center than backup Brock Osweiler. Add in the fact that Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this game coming off their bye and this isn't just a game they can keep close, but one they could win outright. The Colts are still banged up defensively, but the biggest injury news for Indy is the loss of starting center Ryan Kelly, who has been downgraded to out with a knee injury. Center is one of the more underrated positions in the NFL and things can spiral out of control up from on the offensive line when one goes down. Look for Luck to have a little less time to throw, which is going to limit the big plays down the field. That's only going to increase the likelihood that the Dolphins keep it closer than expected. Take Miami! |
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11-23-18 | Washington +3 v. Washington State | Top | 28-15 | Win | 100 | 60 h 32 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington + The wrong team is favored in this one. It's been quite a run for Washington State this season, as no one outside of Pullman was expecting this team to be in this spot after what they lost from last year's team. I just don't think this is the 8th best team in the country. We are talking about a team that lost to a bad USC team and has three other wins by a touchdown or less. Washington is the team that was suppose to be the talk of the Pac-12 this season, as a lot of people had them picked to make the playoffs. It just didn't work out like they hoped, but there's no denying the talent on this team. Not only are they playing for 1st place in the Pac-12 North and a spot in the conference title game, there's definitely motivation here to ruin Washington State's season and they would love nothing more than to celebrate on the Cougars home field. I think the difference here will be the Huskies defense, which comes in allowing a mere 16.6 ppg and 318 ypg. Keep in mind Washington has had zero problem slowing down Mike Leach and this Washington State offense. In the last 5 meetings between these two rivals, the Cougars haven't scored more than 17 points in any single game. All 5 times the Huskies won by double-digits. Expect more of the same. Take Washington! |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +12.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 18 m | Show |
5* Falcons/Saints NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Falcons + The books have had enough with the public cashing in tickets on this Saints team. New Orleans has covered the spread in 8 straight games, which is ridiculous in pro football. There's zero doubt here that this line is inflated in favor of the Saints and I just think there's too much value here to pass up. Keep in mind these two teams played at Atlanta back in Week 3 and the Falcons were actually a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans ended up winning 43-37 in OT, but had to score a late TD in the final minutes to force extra time. That early lean in Atlanta suggest that had those two teams played on a neutral field in Week 3 the Saints would have been around a 2-point favorite and close to a 6-point favorite at home (maybe a TD given NO homefield). This is almost double that. I just think people can forget the advantage division teams have against each other, in that they are so familiar with one another. It's why it's really hard to blowout division opponents, especially a talented team like the Falcons who can put up points. I expect Matt Ryan and Atlanta to be in this thing right down to the final minutes and easily cover the big number. Take Atlanta! |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 49 m | Show |
5* NFL Thanksgiving NO LIMIT Top Play on Lions + I really like the value here with the Lions as a short home dog against the Bears. This is one of those rare times in the NFL where you have two division teams playing for the second time in just a matter of weeks. Most are just going to look back at Chicago's 34-22 win in Week 10 and expect the Bears to roll here, especially after Chicago followed that win up with another impressive win at home over the Vikings. The thing is, it's a lot harder winning on the road, especially inside your own division. Plus, the Bears are likely to be without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky. I also think that highly regarded Chicago defense could struggle a bit playing on away from home on just 3-days rest and off a very physical game against Minnesota. Bears are just 1-111 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total of 42.5 to 49 and 1-9 in their last 10 road games after holding their previous opponent to 75 or less. We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Bears. Road teams that have covered the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are a mere 43-80 (35%) ATS when playing a team with a losing record. That's a 65% system in favor of Detroit dating back to 1983! Take Detroit! |
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11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 59 h 2 m | Show |
5* Vikings/Bears NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bears - I absolutely love the value here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home against division rival Minnesota. The Bears are sitting at 6-3 and on top the NFC North, but I just don't get the feeling that people are buying into this team like they should The defense has been outstanding from the start, as the addition of Mack really took that unit to a whole different level. What makes Chicago such a dangerous team is the offense has gotten better and better, as we are seeing a similar impact here with Nagy and Trubisky as we did last year with McVay and Goff. Since scoring 16 points in a win at Arizona in late September, the Bears have averaged an impressive 34.3 ppg. They definitely got the good to slow down Kirk Cousins and that Vikings offense and with this being a prime time home game under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I just feel the value is too good to pass up. Take Chicago! |
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11-17-18 | Penn State -27 v. Rutgers | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 16 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State - I get that Penn State is essentially playing for pride at this point, but I really like how this team responded from that ugly loss to Michigan, beating Wisconsin by double-digits. The Nittany Lions haven't laid it on an opponent since they throttled Illinois 63-24 way back on Sept. 20th. I just think this team is going to be looking to take out some of their frustration with how the season has gone in this one. I also don't think there's anything Rutgers can do to stop it. I think the Scarlet Knights have accepted this season for the disaster that it is and just aren't that motivated to play these final two games. Sure they might come out with some fight given it's their last home game, but once they get down by two scores, they aren't going to hesitate to throw in the towel. For a team like Rutgers to keep it close against an offense like Penn State, you have to be able to throw the football and the Scarlet Knights have one of these worst passings attacks in the country, which is averaging 143 ypg and own a 49.7 completion rate. Nittany Lions are 21-4 ATS in their last 35 off a conference win, while Rutgers is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a loss by 35 or more (fell 42-7 to Michigan last time out). Take Penn State! |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 82 h 45 m | Show |
5* Packers/Seahawks TNF GAME OF THE YEAR  on Packers + There's no denying the Seahawks have played the Rams tough twice, including last week's 36-31 setback at Los Angeles. I just think those two losses to the Rams has Seattle overvalued. It's about who you beat, not how close you come to winning. The truth is the Seahawks are 4-5 and those 4 wins have come against the Cowboys Raiders Lions and Cardinals. While the Packers are just 4-4-1, those that have watched the Packers know this team is better than their record. They are 7th in total offense and 11th in total defense. Seattle in comparison is 22nd in offense and 12th in defense. The Seahawks also have the perception of being such a dominant home team, but are just 7-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. We just saw them lose as a pick'em at home to the Chargers a few weeks back and I think the Packers are every bit as good as LA. Not to mention Green Bay really needs a win here with them trailing both the Vikings and Bears in the NFC North. Seems like whenever the Packers are desperate, Aaron Rodgers delivers a win and I expect nothing less tonight. Take Green Bay! |
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11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 100 h 19 m | Show |
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans + Big time value here with Tennessee as a touchdown dog at home against the Patriots. After that ugly start to the year New England has won 6 straight and gone 5-1 ATS in the process. After the books got killed in Week 9, they are making the public pay and this is just way too many points for the Patriots to be laying on the road against a good team like the Titans. I know Tennessee doesn't always look pretty, but they are 4-4 and have covered 5 of their last 7. The most recent being a 28-14 win at Dallas as a 4-point dog. This Titans defense is way better than they get credit for. Their strength is against the pass, as they rank 7th allowing just 239.0 ypg. While the offense can look anemic at times, this Patriots defense is one they should be able to move the ball against. NE is allowing 23.5 points/game, 420 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play on the road. I don't think there's a ton of difference from Tennessee and say the Bears, yet the NE was a mere 2-point favorite at Chicago and needed a lot to go right to win that game. Titans are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Tennessee! |
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11-10-18 | TCU +12.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 18 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU + No one is going to give TCU any shot of winning this game and with all the pressure that's on West Virginia to win out and potentially make the playoffs, I think this is the definition of a trap game. Keep in mind that the Mountaineers are off that thrilling 42-41 win at Texas, where they scored a touchdown in the final seconds and instead of playing for overtime, they went for two and got it. Easy for them to look past the Horned Frogs, who were just 1-5 in their previous 6 games before sneaking out a win at home against Kansas State thanks to a missed extra point by the Wildcats. I know it's nothing to be impressed with, but any kind of momentum is a big positive for TCU going into this fight. The Horned Frogs are going to be extremely motivated here to play spoiler and they still need to win 2 of their final 3 to get bowl eligible. I don't know if they can pull off the upset, but it's definitely not out of the question with how strong they are defensively. The one game that West Virginia lost was against Iowa State, who I think is right there with TCU for the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones didn't just keep Will Grier and the Mountaineers in check, they held them to 9 first downs and 152 total yards. Horned Frogs are 28th in the country vs the pass (190.7 ypg), which is where you have to be strong to slow down WV. Look for this to be a low-scoring game and for the Horned Frogs to keep it close. Take TCU! |
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11-04-18 | Bears v. Bills +10 | Top | 41-9 | Loss | -105 | 87 h 10 m | Show |
5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills + The public perception couldn't be any worse on the Bills right now. No one wants anything to do with backing Buffalo, especially given that Nathan Peterman is expected to start. I get it, but there's just too much value here with the Bills as a double-digit home dog. Chicago's a good team, but they aren't the Patriots and shouldn't be laying this many points on the road, especially with their limitations offensively and how strong Buffalo is on the defensive side of the ball. It was a bit of a fluke the Bills didn't cover the 13.5-point spread agains the Patriots. I not only think they will cover this big number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. I know there's talk out there about the Bears not looking past the Bills, but that's easier said than done, especially with two big division home games on deck. I think the difference here will be Buffalo's defense taking away Chicago's running game and making Trubisky beat them. Bears are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after playing their previous game at home and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 on the road after a game  where they gained 6 or more yards/play. Take Buffalo! |
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11-03-18 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin -28.5 | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 16 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin - I got no problem here laying the big number on the Badgers at home. Wisconsin will have zero problem here winning by more than the spread against a horrible Rutgers team. The Badgers come into this one off a 31-17 loss at Northwestern, which really put them behind the 8-ball in the Big Ten West, but they still aren't out of it. Either way, Wisconsin isn't a team to lay down when things aren't going their way. If anything, the Badgers are going to be that much more locked in for this Saturday's game and that's bad news for a Rutgers team that's 0-5 in conference play and haven't won since beating Texas State at home in their season opener. I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because Rutgers only lost by 3-points at home to Northwestern in their last game and they are off a bye. I look more at how this team lost by by 49 at Ohio State this season and that's not their only bad showing on the road. They lost by 41 at Kansas and by 27 at Maryland. Rutgers is getting outscored by an average of 35 ppg on the road (47-8) and Wisconsin is beating teams by an average of 21 (38-17) at home. It's also worth noting that the Scarlet Knights haven't scored more than 17 points in their last 7 games. I don't think they get to that mark and the Badgers should be pushing 50. Take Wisconsin! |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 25 m | Show |
5* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Bills + We are seeing a ridiculous overreaction with this line for Monday Night Football. The books know that the public is going to come in on New England here no matter the price, so they jacked this thing way up. As bad as Buffalo has looked, you just can't pass up getting two touchdowns with a division home dog, especially in a prime time game, where we know the crowd will be into it. There's no denying the Bills' offense is a work in progress, but I think they can get something going here against the Patriots. New England's defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down. The Patriots are 20th against the run and 24th against the pass. They have given up 31 to the Jaguars, 26 to the Lions and 31 to the Bears in their 3 road games this season. Note they lost to both Jacksonville and Detroit and barely held on for a 7-point win at Chicago. The even bigger key here is the Bills have the talent defensively to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Buffalo has the 4th best defense in the NFL, giving up only 320.9 ypg, which is really a remarkable feat when you factor in how much they have had to be on the field with how bad the offense has been. I don't think the Bills will have what it takes to win this game outright, but with a max effort on both sides at home, I think they can make a game of it and keep this well within the number. Take Buffalo! |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 24-18 | Loss | -115 | 131 h 53 m | Show |
5* NFL No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags + I love the value here with the Jaguars as a 3.5-point dog against the Eagles in Sunday's early action from London. Jacksonville is well equipped for the trip overseas, as they do it every year. After a 3rd straight loss and their season in jeopardy, I'm confident Blake Bortles and the Jaguars defense will show up in a big way at Wembley Stadium. Philadelphia is a prime example of just how hard it is to repeat in the NFL. Last year the Eagles could do no wrong, but this year it's been a major struggle. They just keep finding ways to lose games they should win. Last week they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia tight end, Zach Ertz, said it was "As tough a loss as I've had in my 5-plus years here." Those are always the toughest games to bounce back from. Instead of taking this team for what it is, everyone just assumes they will return to the same form as last year. The books have made a killing against people with that mindset, as the Eagles are 1-5 ATS over their last 6. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and we find a big time system in play backing them to cover on Sunday. Underdogs in the first half of the season that have lost to the spread by 42 or more points in their last 5 games are 25-6 (81%) ATS oner the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville! |
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10-26-18 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -2 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -105 | 86 h 5 m | Show |
5* Wyoming/Colorado St MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado State - Colorado State is going to have no problem at all covering this small spread at home against Wyoming on Friday night. The Cowboys are just 1-6 since that 29-7 win at New Mexico State to open the season back in August. They have lost 4 straight and are off a close home loss to Utah State as a 13-point dog. Covering against the Aggies looks great, but this team has no business being basically a pick'em on the road with that offense. Wyoming is 129th in the country, averaging a mere 15.5 ppg. They are 88th in rushing (150.1 ypg) and 122nd in passing (138.3 ypg). They only scored 13 points against Hawaii and a mere 17 against Wofford. They haven't scored more than 20 in 7 straight games. The defense is good for Wyoming, but I look for them to struggle here on the road against a capable Colorado State offense, especially playing on short rest off that physical game against Utah State. Cowboys are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Take Colorado State! |
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10-21-18 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Jags - This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday. The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston. I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team. I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville! |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State -1.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 105 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State - Game Day is headed to Pullman for the first time and it's going to be nuts at Martin Stadium Saturday night when the No. 25 Cougars host No. 12 Oregon. I think that atmosphere combined with how great a spot this is for Washington State and how tough a spot this is for the Ducks, really gives the Cougars the upper hand. Washington State has had two full weeks to prepare for this game off a bye, while Oregon has to be running on fumes after their overtime win against No. 7 Washington. I know the Cougars haven't played some of the top teams in the country, but they have an impressive win at home over a really good Utah team and more than held their own on the road against USC in a prime time game. Offensively, both teams can put up point sin a hurry, as both come in averaging over 40 ppg and 480 ypg. Both teams are also strong defensively, though I would definitely give the edge to the Cougars playing at home and having had those two full weeks of practice to prepare for this Ducks' offensive attack. Cougars are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games when they come in having won 2 or more games in a row and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Take Washington State! |
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10-13-18 | Michigan State +14 v. Penn State | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State + Penn State is getting way too much respect here at home against a good Michigan State team. The Spartans are 3-2 with a couple of close losses. They have to feel like they should be 5-0 and with them off that ugly loss at home to Northwestern, they are going to be 100% locked in for this one. I don't know that the same can be said for the Nittany Lions. Even off a bye week, I think we could see Penn State a bit flat off that devastating loss to Ohio State. That was a game they felt they had to win if they wanted to win the Big Ten East and make the playoffs. If they are still down from that lost, they won't just not cover, but they might lose the game outright. It's a very similar spot to last year. Penn State was 7-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country before losing to the Buckeyes. The very next week they lost 27-24 at Michigan State. Spartans have won 3 of 4 over the Nittany Lions since James Franklin arrived at State College. I also like the matchup here. Penn State has a great quarterback in Trace McSorley, but that offense is built on the ground game. Only once all season have the Nittany Lions thrown for more than 300 yards and that was against Kent State. They will likely have no choice but to throw it in this one, as the Spartans lead the nation in run defense, giving up just 33.8 ypg. Not a single team has rushed for more than 63 yards against them. Last week they held Northwestern to 8-yards on 20 attempts. That run defense was also a big part of their win last year over Penn State, as they held Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions to just 48 yards on 27 attempts. Hard to pass up on a double-digit dog that has a realistic shot of winning the game outright. Plus, Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games off a home loss. Take Michigan State! |
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10-12-18 | South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
5* S. Florida/Tulsa AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa + The Golden Hurricane come into this game at 1-4 and have lost 4 straight, but are a much better team than their record would suggest. Tulsa has played an absolutely brutal schedule early, as 3 of their first 5 games have come on the road against Texas, Temple and Houston. They covered last week as a 17-point dog at Houston, but could have easily won that game outright. The Golden Hurricane has a 26-17 lead in the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control. In their 14-point loss to Temple the week before, they outgained the Owls 403 to 300 and had a 32 to 16 edge in first downs. They also lost by just 7 on the road against a very good Texas team. I'll absolutely take a shot here with Tulsa catching over a touchdown at home against what I think is a very overrated South Florida team. The Bulls are 5-0 and ranked No. 23 in the country, but have played a very easy schedule with their two toughest games coming against Power 5 bottom feeders Georgia Tech and Illinois. If the Golden Hurricane can just simply cut down on their mistakes, they are going to have a great shot here of winning this game outright. Tulsa has 16 turnovers in 5 games and simply can't continue to get that unlucky with turnovers going forward. Golden Hurricane are a dominant 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a game where they allowed 40+ points and 11-2 in their last 13 vs a team with a winning record. USF on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take Tulsa! |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants +3 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* Eagles/Giants NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants + The Eagles continue to get way too much respect from the books after last year's Super Bowl win. Philadelphia was expected to defend their title, but they haven't even looked like a playoff team to this point. The Eagles are 2-3 with their only wins at home against the Falcons and Colts and they could have easily lost both of those games, as both Atlanta and Indy had the ball deep in Eagles territory with a chance to take the lead late. The two biggest problems for Philadelphia have been the injuries that have piled up on the offensive side of the ball and the defense not playing anywhere close to as well as it did a season ago. Carson Wentz is just fine, but the supporting cast is really limited with the likes of Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace all sidelined. The Giants are sitting at 1-4 and have been a big disappointment, but they are coming off their best performance of the season in a mere 2-point loss at Carolina. The offense put up 31 points on a good Panthers defense, who were off a bye and I think they finally got something going on that side of the ball. I look for the G-men to deliver in what feels like a must-win game. Take New York! |
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10-07-18 | Dolphins +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 39 m | Show |
5* AFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Dolphins + Cincinnati is getting way to much respect here at home. The Bengals pulled off an incredible 37-36 win over the Falcons last week, winning outright as a 3.5-point dog. Miami on the other hand lost 38-7 at New England. I just think we have seen a big overreaction to the Dolphins loss. They couldn't have caught the Patriots at a worse time, as New England was 100% locked in after losing two straight. The Patriots would have done that to a lot of teams. This is still the same team that started out 3-0 and we can be sure we get the very best they have to offer off that embarrassing loss. Cincinnati has started out strong, but I don't think this Bengals team is anything special. They got a lot of keys guys out with injury right now and are running out of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Tyler Eifert is on IR, second year wide out John Ross is questionable with a groin injury and their top two backs, Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard are also both questionable. I think this should be closer to the Bengals as a 3-point favorite, giving us almost a field goal worth of value on a team that is more than capable of winning this game outright. Dolphins have also covered 5 of their last 6 after a poor offensive game where they had fewer than 150 passing yards. Take Miami! |
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10-06-18 | Washington -20 v. UCLA | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR  on Washington - Washington has won 4 straight since their opening week loss to Auburn and have racked up 3 straight impressive wins over the likes of Utah, Arizona State and BYU. I think we are seeing a shorter line here because this looks like a flat spot off those three and an even bigger game at Oregon on deck. It's certainly not an ideal spot, but I also don't think UCLA has the talent for it to matter. The biggest thing to keep in mind is Washington can't afford to overlook anyone, as one more loss and they can kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. With how good the Huskies are defensively and how bad the Bruins are offensively, it's going to be really tough for UCLA to keep this within 3 touchdowns. Washington sits 10th in the country in total defense, giving up just 290 ypg. The Bruins are 102nd in rushing (135.8 ypg) and 109th in passing (176.3 ypg). Look for the Huskies to have excellent field position throughout and I'm expecting a couple costly turnovers by UCLA to really open this thing up. Keep in mind the the Bruins defense is not good. They are 95th against the run (183 ypg) and 85th against the pass (238.5 ypg). They gave up 38 at home to Fresno St and I think Washington could score 50+ and you have to think this Huskies offense is itching for a big day offensively after all the good defenses they have played. Take Washington! |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 60 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State + I absolutely love the value here with Penn State not only a home dog, but catching more than a field goal. There's arguably not a better atmosphere in the country than when Penn State plays at home in a prime time game in a "white out." Two years ago in this spot they upset No. 2 Ohio State 24-21 as a 19-point dog. Last year they destroyed No. 19 Michigan 42-13 as a 9-point favorite. With that said, I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points for some added insurance. The concerns over Penn State's offense having to replace Saquon Barkley and offensive coordinator  Joe Moorehead can be thrown out the window. The Nittany Lions are averaging over 500 ypg and come in 10th in the nation in rushing at 275 ypg, which well above the 170 ypg they averaged with Barkely last year. Senior quarterback Trace McSorely is the real deal and this could very well be his defining moment for the Heisman trophy. As good as Ohio State's defense has looked and all the big names they have, I think Penn State will be able to put up points on the Buckeyes, especially with OSU's Nick Bosa sidelined. Keep in mind we saw a TCU offense that isn't nearly as talented as the Nittany Lions put up over 500 yards and 22 first downs against Ohio State a few weeks back. The other thing to keep in mind, is the fact that this will be Ohio State's first true road game of the season. The only game away from home was that neutral site matchup with TCU and it felt like more of a home game with all the Buckeye fans in the stadium. Nittany Lions are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall, as the books just keep undervaluing them. They are also 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 vs a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Penn State! |
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 7 m | Show |
5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on 49ers + The Chiefs are getting way too much respect from the books after their 2-0 start. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has been the talk of the NFL after setting a new NFL record with 10 touchdowns passes in the first two games of the season. While the Chief's offense is dynamic, the defense is one of the worst in the league. Kansas City's secondary has been an absolute joke. They let Philip Rivers throw for 418 yards in Week 1 and last week Ben Roethlisberger threw for 442 yards. Expect a monster day here from Jimmy Garoppolo and the entire 49ers offense. I just think when you play defense as poorly as the Chiefs do, it's only a matter a time before it bites you. San Francisco's defense hasn't been great early on, but will be getting back a huge piece this week in linebacker Reuben Foster, who was suspended the first two games. I think the 49ers get a few more stops and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this game outright. There's also a great system in play favoring a San Francisco cover. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who didn't force a turnover in their previous game are a mere 41-81 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting the 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Take San Francisco! |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +22 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 70 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAF No Limit GAME OF THE YEAR  on LA Tech + This is the absolute perfect spot to fade LSU. There were those that doubted the Tigers being for real after that Week 1 thrashing of Miami, but after winning on the road at Auburn this team is considered to be for real. I believe it has LSU way overvalued in a massive letdown spot against a quality team. Ed Oregon knows how to get his team locked in and fired up in big games, but struggles to keep that focus and energy when they are the superior team. We saw it last year when they lost at home to Troy as a 20-point favorite. The other thing is the offense hasn't exactly been great in the early going. I know they have played two good defenses in Miami and Auburn, but they had just 335 total yards against SE Louisiana. Louisiana Tech gave up just 25.4 ppg and 386 ypg last year and this year's team is expected to be even better on that side of the ball. The offense has always been able to put up points under head coach Skip Holtz and this year will be no different with 8 starters back, including starting QB J'Mar Smith, who has 589 yards and 4 TD's in 2 games. The other big key here is the fact that the Bulldogs had a bye last week, giving them two full weeks to get ready for this game. Holz is also 30-15 ATS as a head coach when his team is a road dog with the average loss in this spot coming by just 7.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech! |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
5* Jets/Browns TNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jets + The Cleveland Browns have won 1 game dating back to the start of the 2016 season. They had their chances in each of the first two weeks of 2018 to get a win, but continue to find ways to lose games late. This team has no business laying this many points against any team right now. The Jets came out with an impressive 48-17 win at Detroit on Monday Night Football, but laid an egg on short rest in a 20-12 home loss to the Dolphins. I think that poor showing against Miami has people once again second-guessing this team and that's created some big time value here with New York in this matchup. No question the Browns defense is improved, but I don't think it's as good as people are making it out to be. They have benefited greatly from the opposing team making costly mistakes, as they have 8 takeaways in 2 games. At some point the turnovers won't be there and this defense will get exposed. Look for Darnold to have a big game and while I'll gladly take the points, I fully expect New York to win this game outright. Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and have cashed 4 of the last 5 tickets on Thursday Night Football. Cleveland on the other hand is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 3-points or less. Take New York! |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 61 h 13 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on Jags + This Jaguars team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. Jacksonville had the Patriots on the ropes in last year's AFC Championship Game and that was in New England, where few have been able to just keep games close against the Patriots in the postseason. I like the Jaguars to get their revenge here in Week 2 at home. This is all about the matchup for me and as good as Tom Brady is, I think that Patriots offense is going to have a miserable time moving the ball against this top-tier Jacksonville defense. The Patriots are thin up front on the offensive line. They traded away Nate Soldier, saw their top draft pick in Isaiah Wynn land on IR and now starting right tackle Marcus Cannon is questionable to play. New England also lost running back Jeremy Hill to IR and could be without two of their top backups at running back, as both Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel are questionable. I just don't see the Pats being able to run the ball in this one and that's going to let that loaded Jags front pin their ears and come after Brady. Over the years, the one big neutralizer to Brady and that Pats offense is a great pass rush. Say what you want about Blake Bortles, he picked apart this New England defense last year and I expect him to make enough plays here for the Jaguars to win this game outright. Take Jacksonville! |
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09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts -3 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -105 | 482 h 27 m | Show |
5* NFL Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Colts - This is just too good a price to pass up on Indianapolis at home. The Colts should have no problem here taking down the Bengals in Week 1. There's no doubt in my mind that Indy is going to be one of the most improved teams in the league with Andrew Luck back healthy at quarterback. I just think he hasn't played in so long that people are skeptical of taking them. The Colts are 26-11 SU and 24-12 ATS with Luck as a starter in home games. On the flip side of this, Bengals' starter, Andy Dalton, is a mere 15-25 in 40 career starts as an underdog. I've never really been a big fan of Dalton and there's just not a ton to like about this Cincinnati team, especially on offense. Last year the Bengals averaged just 18.1 ppg and were dead last in the NFL at 280.5 yards/game. They didn't do anything well, ranking 27th in passing and 31st in rushing. Little was done to improve that side of the ball. The defense also wasn't great (ranked bottom half of the league in both scoring and total defense) and has been on the decline ever since Mike Zimmer left to be the head coach at Minnesota. Not to mention they will be without their best defender for the first four games in Vontaze Burfict (suspended). Take Indianapolis! |
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09-09-18 | Bills +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 3-47 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 50 m | Show |
5* AFC Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bills + Buffalo is a team the public wants absolutely nothing to do with going into the season and there's no question the books have inflated this line on the Ravens. A lot of people were way down on the Bills last year, especially after they traded away the likes of Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Reggie Ragland and Marcell Dareus. All this team did was finish 9-7 and snap a 17-year playoff drought, making it in as a Wild Card. While Buffalo does lose starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the team is confident that Nathan Peterman can hold the fort down until rookie Josh Allen is ready to take over. Peterman had a rough go of things after he was force into action as a rookie last year, but he looked sharp in the preseason, completing 33 of 41 (80%) of his attempts for 431 yards with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio. Buffalo won a lot of games last year leaning on their running game and a defense that forced 25 takeaways. They know how to win sloppy and I expect them to hang around against a Ravens team that isn't known for blowing out opponents. Ravens are just 18-21 ATS as a home favorite with Joe Flacco as their quarterback and the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 season openers and were a perfect 3-0 ATS in September last season. Take Buffalo! |
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09-08-18 | UTEP +24 v. UNLV | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -111 | 103 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP + After going on the road and giving USC a scare in their opener, were within 5 at the half and covered the 24.5-point spread, the public is going to be all over the Rebels against a UTEP team that went 0-12 last year and started out 2018 with an ugly 30-10 loss at home to Northern Arizona. What they won't factor in is how hard it's going to be for UNLV to avoid a letdown after that game against the Trojans. All they have been thinking about for months was that game with USC to open the season. It only makes it that much harder to bounce back when you feel like you had a shot at winning the game. Not to mention, it how difficult it has to be to take this UTEP team seriously given how bad they have been. We got numbers to back this theory up. UNLV is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when they are coming off a cover where they lost as an underdog. I'm not saying the Rebels won't win this game, but it's going to be a lot closer than everyone is expecting. Take UNLV! |
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09-06-18 | Falcons +3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -119 | 217 h 36 m | Show |
5* Falcons/Eagles Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Falcons + It's just a given that the defending Super Bowl champ is going to be overvalued on the spread the following season. I know this line has dropped some with Wentz not playing, but I still think there's a lot of value with Atlanta. Nick Foles put on a ridiculous performance last year filling in for Wentz, but this guy has been hit or miss his whole career. I think we already saw signs of things not being as good as they were a season ago. I know it's the preseason and you can't overreact to what you see, but the Eagles offense was dreadful when Foles was under center. Add in he's not going to have one of his top wide outs in Alshon Jeffery, who is out with a shoulder injury, and how talented this Falcons defense is, I think the struggles continue in Week 1. Keep in mind Atlanta will be out for blood in this one after losing to the Eagles in the playoffs, a game they have to feel like they should have won. I also think the Falcons offense is flying way under the radar. They weren't nearly as bad as people made them out to be in 2017. They got all their top weapons back, plus used their 1st round pick on Alabama's Calvin Ridley, who looks like the real deal. As good as the Eagles defense was, I think the Falcons are able to move the ball and ultimately win this game. Take Atlanta! |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 372 h 52 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU + I have LSU winning this game outright, making this a no-brainer with the Tigers getting 3.5-points. Miami is coming off a solid season in which they started out 10-0, but they lost their last 3 all by double-digits. There's definitely reason to get excited about the direction of the program, but I think people are getting a little too carried away. LSU is coming off a 9-4 season and yet no one is talking about them in the SEC. The Tigers aren't exactly use to flying under the radar, but I think that makes them a dangerous team. I also don't think you can overlook how good the SEC has looked as a whole in Week 1. The only team to lose their opener was Tennessee, which is a complete mess right now. Auburn defeated No. 6 Washington and Alabama rolled Louisville 51-14 in the other marquee matchup. I look for the Tigers defense to be the difference in this one, as there are few better than LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, the Tigers have the potential to take control of this game early and win here in convincing fashion. Either way, I like them to keep it within a field goal. Take LSU! |
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09-01-18 | Northern Illinois v. Iowa -10 | Top | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 414 h 20 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa - Iowa's not a program that gets a ton of respect nationally, which is why they are a profitable 124-108 ATS since Kirk Ferentz took over as head coach. The Hawkeyes are getting no love once again in 2018 and I think they are showing tremendous value here as a mere 10-point favorite at home against a team from the MAC. Not to take anything away from Northern Illinois, which has quite the track record over the last decade, but they are just 21-18 over the last 3 seasons. Outlets are calling for them to be one of the top teams in the MAC this year, but I think a lot of that has to do with the conference being down a little. This reminds me a lot of last year when Iowa opened against Wyoming. A lot of people were on the Cowboys as a 12-point dog, but the Hawkeyes easily covered in a 24-3 victory. The Hawkeyes are known for fielding a team that can run the football and are always strong on the defensive side of the ball. That won't change in 2018, but I expect a much more balanced offensive attack behind one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nathan Stanley, who will be throwing to arguably the best tight end in college football in Noah Fantz (projected 1st round pick). While Iowa does lose their top 3 linebackers, they are very strong up front on the defensive line and Northern Illinois is a team that doesn't have a great passing attack. I just don't see the Huskies keeping pace as I have the Hawkeyes winning here by 20+ points. Take Iowa -10! |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
5* JAC/PIT Divisional Rd GAME OF THE YEAR on Jaguars + I love the value we are getting here with Jacksonville on Sunday against the Steelers. Say what you want about the Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense, I think this team is built to have success against Pittsburgh. We saw that first hand in the regular-season, as the Jags went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers 30-9. Jacksonville's defense made life miserable for Ben Roethlisberger, intercepting him 5 times. That's what everyone talks about, but I think the key to their success in that game was their ability to keep the running game in check. Le'Veon Bell had just 47 rushing yards on 15 attempts and the Steelers as a team only rushed for 70 yards on 20 attempts, which is just 3.5 yards/carry. With the talent they have in the secondary, if they can have similar success against the run, I think Pittsburgh will have a hard time moving the ball. Let's also not forget Antonio Brown is coming off an injury that kept him out the final two weeks of the regular season. While there's reason to be optimistic that the Jaguars defense can have similar success against the Steelers offense, I think we could see Jacksonville's offense surprise some people with how well they play. Pittsburgh's defense was one of the best in the NFL early on, but it wasn't the same after they lost Ryan Shazier, especially when it came to stopping the run. If the Jags can have success on the ground, that should open up things for Bortles to make some plays through the air. With all that said, it's not out of the question the Jaguars win this game outright. Take Jacksonville! |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 146 h 31 m | Show |
5* Alabama/Georgia CFB Champ NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia + I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Bulldogs in Monday's national championship game. Because Alabama has been here before and are coming off the more dominant performance in the semifinals, the perception is that they are the better team and the books are going to inflate this line, knowing the public will be on the Crimson Tide. I'm not so sure that Georgia isn't the better team. If anything, this line should be closer to a pick'em than a touchdown, which makes this an easy play for me. Don't be fooled by Georgia's struggles defensively against Oklahoma. I don't know that there's a defense in the country that could slow down Baker Mayfield and that Sooners attack. The Bulldogs made some great adjustments at the half and should have a much easier time shutting down Alabama's offense. The Crimson Tide only had 261 total yards and 16 first down the entire game against Clemson and benefited big time by jumping out to a 10-point lead. This Alabama offense simply isn't that good. I know the Crimson Tide defense looked like a different animal against Clemson, but let's not forget they had more than a month to prepare for the Tigers and the past two years have looked great defensively in the semifinals and then struggled in the title game. I think the 1-2 punch of Georgia's rushing attack will be the difference, as I think the Bulldogs win this one outright. Take Georgia! |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
5* CAR/NO 'Wild Card' GAME OF THE YEAR on Panthers + I love the value we are getting here with Carolina as a touchdown dog against the Saints in Sunday's NFC Wild Card matchup. Sure, New Orleans won both regular season meetings between these two NFC South rivals, but that only makes me like the Panthers more. You hear it all the time. It's extremely hard to beat the same team 3 straight times in the NFL, especially in the same season. Big key here is we just need the Panthers to keep in within a touchdown. Each of the first two meetings the Saints were able to get their running game going, rushing 149 yards in Carolina in Week 3 and 148 at NO in Week 13. Most will just assume that it's going to be the same old story in the playoffs, but I think the more you see a team the easier they become to stop and let's not forget that the Panthers finished the year 3rd in the league against the run, giving up just 88.1 ypg. As for Carolina's offense, they will have a big time player maker on the field that didn't play in either of the first two games against the Saints. That's star tight end Greg Olsen, who when healthy has been Cam Newton's favorite target. Last year he led the team with 80 receptions for 1,073 yards. I also think Newton has shown in the past that he can step up and deliver on the big stage and this is a Carolina team that went 7-2 over their finale 9 games. It's also worth pointing out that the road team is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 meetings and the underdog has cashed in 6 of the last 7 meetings. Panthers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Take Carolina! |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 298 h 30 m | Show |
5* New Year's Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama - I think we are getting some outstanding value here with the Crimson Tide laying less than a field goal, as I not only think Alabama wins this game, but does so convincingly. This is a massive revenge spot for the Crimson Tide, who lost to the Tigers in last year's championship game. A couple big differences this time around. Unlike the last two years when these two teams played in the title game, this time they meet in the semifinals. Instead of having just 1 week to prepare for Clemson, Alabama now has had a month to put together a game plan for the Tigers. The other big difference is Clemson no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback. No disrespect to Kelly Bryant, who has a better year than most expected, but he's no where close to being the same player as Watson and with how good this Alabama defense is against the run, he's got to play exceptional for them to win. There's plenty of talk about Clemson and their dominant defensive front, but they have been loaded on that side of the ball each of the last two years and Alabama has had no problem moving the ball on them. Last year the Tide rushed for 221 yards on 34 attempts (6.5 yards/carry) and put up 45 on them the year before. I just don't think the Tigers can keep pace offensively without Watson behind center. Take Alabama! |
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12-31-17 | Bengals +10 v. Ravens | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 105 h 30 m | Show |
5* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH on Bengals + I love the value here with Cincinnati catching double-digits against the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore is getting way too much respect here due to the fact that they have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games and are the only team with something to play for. The thing is, Baltimore's recent run has come against a very soft schedule, as the 5 wins are against the Packers (without Rodgers), Texans, Lions, Browns and Colts. While the Bengals come in off a 26-17 win over the Lions, I still think they are undervalued due to their previous two games, where they lost 7-33 at home to the Bears and 7-34 at Minnesota. This team rallied and played one of it's best games last week in what most expected to be the final home game for head coach Marvin Lewis. I expect another big effort here in what will likely be Lewis' last game at the helm of the Bengals. Baltimore's also not the type of team that should be laying double-digits. While the offense has been better of late, they are still extremely limited on that side of the ball. You also have to factor in the increase in production has come from the soft schedule. This Bengals defense did an outstanding job against the Ravens defense earlier in the year, limiting them to just 268 yards and 20 points, despite the offense turning it over 5 times. I think they do enough here to keep this close and maybe even win the game outright. Cincinnati is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in December and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and are 0-4 ATS in this spot when playing at home. Take Cincinnati! |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State -7 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 226 h 11 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Bowl (Cotton) GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State - I don't just think the Buckeyes will beat USC, I'm confident they win here by double-digits. Ohio State is hands down the best team that didn't make the playoffs and I'm not buying this team isn't going to show up for this game because they got left out after winning the Big Ten Championship. The fact that the opponent here is USC will be more than enough to get the Buckeyes full attention. Coaching is a big factor in these bowl games and there's no question Ohio State has the coaching edge here with Urban Meyer over the Trojans Clay Helton. Meyer knows how to get his teams prepared for bowl games, as he's got a 10-3 record over his coaching career. Yes, they laid an egg in last year's playoff game against Clemson, losing 31-0, but I believe that only adds fuel to the fire. For me this comes down to the line of scrimmage and I think the Buckeyes will dominate on both sides. Ohio State held opposing teams to just 3 yards/carry and 1.6 yards/carry less than what their opponents averaged. On the flip side of this, the Buckeyes averaged 5.9 yards/carry on offense, which was 1.6 yards/carry more than what their opponents typically gave up. I don't think there's any questioning their ability to run the ball after they put up 238 yards on Wisconsin and 226 yards on Michigan in their last two games. It reminds me a lot of USC's game against Notre Dame, where they were outmanned at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes are better than the Irish. Take Ohio State! |
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12-27-17 | Southern Miss +17 v. Florida State | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
5* Independence Bowl VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss + I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Eagles catching a big number against the Seminoles in the Independence Bowl on Wednesday. This is simply too many points given the circumstances for Florida State, which watched head coach Jimbo Fisher jump ship for Texas A&M at the end of the season. I just don't see the Seminoles being motivated for this contest, especially not to the point where they win in blowout fashion. All you have to do is look at the injury report for FSU to see how little interest there is in playing this game, as there's a laundry list of players who are questionable and several others, including star defensive player Derwin James that aren't going to take the field. The defense that kept them competitive is simply missing too many players and when you add in the lack of motivation, I think Southern Miss is going to move the ball with ease here. The other big key here is this Seminoles offense is not very good. Sure they put up 42 in their final game against ULM, but the Warhawks have one of the worst defenses in the country. FSU finished 83rd in rushing (150.8 ypg) and 92nd in passing (192.8 ypg). Southern Miss comes in with one of the most underrated defenses in the country. The Golden Eagles were 28th against the run (132.2 ypg) and 26th vs the pass (189.8 ypg). Not only do I think they can keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them win this game outright. Take Southern Miss! |
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12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets +7 | Top | 14-7 | Push | 0 | 98 h 29 m | Show |
5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Jets + I think we are getting excellent value here with the Jets catching a touchdown at home against the Chargers on Sunday. The public loves to focus all their attention on the teams that are still in the playoff mix and as a result I think we are seeing a drastically inflated line on Los Angeles here. While the Chargers are mathematically still alive, their playoff hopes all but came to an end last week in their loss to the Chiefs, who will likely wrap up the AFC West with a win over the Dolphins. At the same time, I don't think it's going to be as easy as people think for LA to bounce back off that crushing loss to Kansas City, especially on the road. Keep in mind in mind this is their second straight on the road and a dreaded spot for West Coast teams playing on the East Coast in an early game. I know the Jets are down to backup QB Bryce Petty, but this is a New York team that has shown a tremendous amount of fight this season and have been a much more competent team at home, where they are 4-3, compared to 1-6 on the road. Not only do I think the Jets can keep this close enough to cover, but I actually give them a decent shot at winning this game outright. Jets are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games dating back to last season and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss. Chargers on the other hand are a mere 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and are now just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of December. Take New York! |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 28 m | Show |
5* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Titans + I absolutely love the value here with Tennessee catching a touchdown at home against the Rams. The perception on LA couldn't be much higher right now, as they just laid an absolute beating on the road against Seattle last Sunday, crushing their division rivals 42-7. That win put the Rams 2-games up on the Seahawks for the NFC West title and all they need to do is win one of their final two games (host 49ers in Week 17) or have have Seattle lose one of their final two (play at Dallas this week). Either way, this is not a must-win game for the Rams and with them coming off that huge win, I think they are primed for a letdown here in what will be their second straight road game. I know the Titans come in having lost back-to-back games, but those both game on the road and they were a couple breaks away from winning both of those games. What you have to keep in mind with Tennessee is they are a different team at home. The Titans are 5-1 at Nissan Stadium compared to just 3-5 on the road. It's been night and day offensive for Tennessee offensively, as they are averaging 26 ppg at home compared to a mere 17.5 ppg on the road. This is also a must-win game for the Titans, who need to win to just have a shot at making the playoffs. The big key here is I think the Titans will be able to slow down this Rams offensive attack. While LA puts up big numbers both on the ground and through the air, their offense is at its best when they can establish the run. That won't be easy against Tennessee. The Titans feature one of the leagues top run defenses and are giving up just 74 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry on the ground at home. I think all this adds up to a closely contested battle and one that I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won outright. Take Tennessee! |
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12-21-17 | Temple -7 v. Florida International | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
5* Gasparilla Bowl NO LIMIT Top Play on Temple - I like the value here with the Owls laying a touchdown against the Golden Panthers in the Gasparilla Bowl. FIU had a great turnaround in their first season under Butch Davis, going 8-4 after finishing at 4-8 last year, but I also think it has the Owls getting too much respect here. A big reason for the turnaround with FIU is they played a couple of cupcakes in UMass and Alcorn State in non-conference play and C-USA was way down this year outside of FAU, who they lost to by 28 points. Temple only went 6-6 in the first year under new head coach Geoff Collins, but were a much better team down the stretch, as they closed out the year winning 3 of their last 4, which included a 34-26 win over Navy and 43-22 victory at Tulsa in the regular-season finale. A big reason this team got things going is Frank Nutile took over as the starting quarterback. He threw for over 200 yards in each of his 5 starts and figures to be in store for a big game here against a FIU defense that ranked 94th in the country against the pass, giving up 242.8 ypg. The Panthers also were 79th against the run (173.8 ypg), so the Owls should also have balance with their offensive attack. I just don't see FIU being able to keep pace in this one. Give me Temple -7! |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7 v. Boise State | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 8 m | Show |
5* Boise St/Oregon Las Vegas Bowl Top Play on Oregon - A lot of people are taking Boise State here and I think a big reason for that is fact that Oregon head coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State. There's also concerns if star running back Royce Freeman will play. I believe it's created some great line value here with the Ducks, who I think are the far superior team. Oregon replaced Taggart with offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal, so there's no going to be no changes to how they run their offense. They also still have defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt around, so no changes on defense. Not having Taggart isn't going to hurt this team. In fact, I think it adds some incentive for them to play well for their new head coach. As far as Freeman is concerned, it would be great if he played, but at the same time I don't think they will miss him. Backup Kani Benoit was arguably more productive, though he only had 573 yards to Freeman's 1,475. Benoit has only got 80 carries, where Freeman has 244. Benoit actually averages 1.2 more yards/carry and at his current pace (10) would have close to 30 TD's if he produced the same over the same number of carries as Freeman. On top of that, it's sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert who is the most important offensive player for Oregon. This team averaged right around 50 ppg with him in the lineup and around 15 without him and that was over a 5-game stretch. Boise St has a solid defense, but it hasn't seen anything like the speed of the Ducks and I think they struggle to slow this high-powered offense down. As for the Broncos offense, I'm also not all that impressed with what I've seen and they could be without their best back in Alexander Mattison, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Either way I don't see Boise State keeping pace here. Take Oregon! |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Panthers I love the value here with Carolina getting points at home. The Panthers are one of the better teams in the league and simply shouldn't be a dog on their home field. Minnesota is simply overvalued right now, as the Vikings have won 8 straight and covered each of their last 7. The big key here is that this is a really tough spot for Minnesota, who will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. It doesn't come up a ton in the NFL, but teams tend to really struggle in that 3rd straight game away from home. I think that will be the case here for the Vikings, who are off two tough games on the road against the Lions and Falcons. Panthers come in off a loss at New Orleans, but had won and covered 4 straight prior to that. They have bounced back nicely, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Carolina! |
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12-03-17 | Giants v. Raiders -7 | Top | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 103 h 13 m | Show |
5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders - I absolutely love this spot for Oakland, as I think the Giants are a massive fade right now. New York showed some life with a surprising win over Kansas City at home and while they didn't cover in their last game against the Redskins, they were in a great position to late. The thing is the Chiefs couldn't be playing much worse right now and Washington is decimated with injuries, which really showed up in their game on Thursday against the Cowboys. New York played about as well as they could in those two games and easily could have lost both. I just don't see the same effort going forward, especially after the team announced they were benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith. That's a pretty clear picture to the players and coaching staff that the goal from here on out isn't to win games. It's not like they are playing Smith to see if they have something for next year. They are downgrading at the most important position on the field on purpose. Oakland hasn't been playing up to expectations this year, but this is still a decent team that when they are right can light up the scoreboard. They also desperately need to win this game to keep any hope alive of making the playoffs. I only see one team showing up to play on Sunday and any time that happens, that's a recipe for a blowout. Take Oakland! |
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12-02-17 | Georgia +3 v. Auburn | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia + It wasn't pretty for the Bulldogs in the first meeting against the Tigers. Georgia went into Auburn sitting at 9-0 and ranked No. 1 in the country. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 7-0 lead, scoring on their first drive, but it was all downhill from there. Auburn led 16-7 at the half and pushed lead up to 40-10 midway through the 4th quarter. I'm not saying the Tigers aren't a great team, I just think they caught Georgia by surprise in that game earlier this season. I also think that was a Bulldogs team that was starting to get a little too cocky with how they were dominating teams. Georgia simply didn't have the same fire that Auburn did, who at that time was already in win or their season is over mode. I think we get a much different looking Bulldogs team here and I like their chances of winning this game outright. Another thing here is I just think Auburn could be running on fumes here. They have been in do or die mode since losing to LSU back in the middle of December. The biggest of them all was last week against rival Alabama, which secured their spot in the SEC title game. This will be their 3rd game against a Top 10 team in their last 4 games, while Georgia hasn't been tested since that loss to Auburn. I think the Tigers will be out of gas. Take Georgia! |
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11-26-17 | Bears +14 v. Eagles | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 53 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears + This is the time to go against the Eagles. Philadelphia is flying high after their 37-9 blowout win over rival Dallas on Sunday Night Football and now return home for a game against the 3-7 Bears before going back on the road for another huge game against the Seahawks. I think the Eagles are going to have a really tough time giving the Bears the respect they deserve and that could prove costly, as this is much better Chicago team than their record would suggest. The Bears haven't lost a game by more than 8-points since September back before Trubisky took over at quarterback. Chicago is able to keep game close because of their ability to run the football and a defense that is much better than anyone realizes. I look for the Bears to grind out every possession to eat up the clock and limit the number of possessions for the Eagles offense, while the defense does a good job of getting off the field on 3rd down. Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played in November and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. Take Chicago! |
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11-25-17 | Idaho v. New Mexico State -8 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAAAF Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State - I like the value here with the Aggies laying single-digits at home against the Vandals. While Idaho is sitting at 3-7 and out of the bowl picture, New Mexico State is 4-6 and still can reach bowl eligibility with a win here and victory over Georgia State in their finale next week. The key here is the Aggies are a much better team than their 2-4 conference mark would suggest, as they could very easily be 6-0. All 4 losses have come by 6-points or less, including mere 3-point losses against Sun Belt powers Appalachian State and Troy. Another key here is that Idaho just recently lost starting quarterback Matt Linehan. In the first game without him against Coastal Carolina last week, the Vandals managed just 7-points, 277 total yards and 14 first downs. That's just too big a loss for this team to overcome, as they aren't any good at running the ball. Idaho is 104th in the country, averaging just 130.7 ypg on the ground. There is a chance New Mexico State could be without starting quarterback Tyler Rodgers, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. I think he plays, but even if he doesn't the Aggies should be able to generate more than enough offense to win here by double-digits. Take New Mexico State! |
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11-24-17 | Missouri v. Arkansas +11 | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 55 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas + I like the value here with the Razorbacks as a double-digit dog at home against the Tigers. Missouri has caught fire here in the 2nd half of the season and have won 5 straight and covered their last 7. I think they are way overvalued here because of it. While the wins have come by large margins they have also come against bad teams. Arkansas has had a down year, but there's still a lot of fight in this team and they showed it last week in their near upset at home over Mississippi State. They are going to want to go out with a fight on senior day and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won outright. Razorbacks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home when they come in having failed 2 of their last 3, 15-6 in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss. It's also worth noting that the home team has dominated in this series. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Arkansas! |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions +3 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
5* NFC North (Thanksgiving) GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions + I like the value here with Detroit catching a field goal at home against the Vikings on Thanksgiving Day. Minnesota had been flying under the radar up until last week's convincing 24-7 win over the Rams. Now I feel like the Vikings are overvalued here as a division road favorite against a good but not great Detroit team that knows a thing or to about playing on Thanksgiving. Keep in mind these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year and the Lions were a 1.5-point favorite and won 16-13. On top of that, Minnesota was only a 3-point favorite at home earlier this season, which they lost 7-14. Based on that spread, this line should be closer to a pick'em and you could argue that Detroit should be favored. As good as Case Keenum has been playing, the Lions still have the edge in this one at quarterback with Matthew Stafford. The other key thing here is that while the Vikings have a great defense, it's going to be hard for them to play up to their true potential after laying it all on the line against the Rams and having just 3 days to prepare. Note that Detroit is averaging 27.6 ppg and just over 350 ypg at home this season. At the same time the Vikings are giving up 22.2 ppg on the road, well above their season average of 17.2 ppg. Lions have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and are an impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in November. Minnesota is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 division games and just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take Detroit! |
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11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 59 m | Show |
5* NFC ATS GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings - I really like the value here with Minnesota laying less than a field goal at home against the Rams. Los Angeles is the talk of the NFL right now and have absolutely just dominated in their last 3 games, beating the Cardinals 33-0, Giants 51-17 and the Texans 33-7. One thing you will note with all 3 of those game is they came against teams that have been absolutely decimated with injuries, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Hard for this team to not have a big head right now and that's the last thing you want going up against this Vikings team. While the Rams are getting all kinds of love, Minnesota is a team that has played great to start the year and yet no one is talking about them. I think we get a big time effort here from the Vikings in this one, who are much better offensively than they get credit for and certainly have the defensive playmakers to slow down this high-scoring Rams offense. Vikings are also historically a great bet at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, as they are 22-8 ATS at home since he came to Minnesota. He's also got his team to play well against great offensive teams, going 14-4 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards/game. Take Minnesota! |
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11-18-17 | Utah v. Washington -17 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 11 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Washington - I think we are getting great value here with the Huskies here at home against the Utes. Most are just assuming that Washington isn't going to show up after last week's loss to Stanford, which all but eliminated them from an invite to the playoffs. The thing is, I don't think this team had a great shot as it was and my money is on one of the best in the business in head coach Chris Petersen to get his team to bounce back in a big way at home. Utah caught the attention of a lot of people with their 4-0 start, which had them ranked in the Top 20, but they have gone just 1-5 since with the most recent being a crushing loss at home to Washington State. Unlike Stanford, who has one of the elite running backs in college football, the Utes don't have that same kind of talent to have success against the Huskies defense, which is still ranked 4th in the country, giving up only 101.5 ypg. That's a big problem for Utah as they are a run-first team and use the run to open up the passing game. I think the Utes find it very difficult to score against a Huskies defense that is only allowing 11.2 ppg at home on the year. Take Washington! |
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11-18-17 | Georgia Tech -6 v. Duke | Top | 20-43 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 22 m | Show |
5* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech - The Yellow Jackets have been a money making machine in 2017. With last week's 28-22 win at home over Georgia Tech as a 3-point dog they are now 7-1 ATS on the season. I think they keep it rolling here with a convincing road win over a struggling Duke team. After starting out the season 4-0 with an emphatic 41-17 win over Northwestern at home, the Blue Devils have lost 6 straight and the most recent was an ugly 16-21 loss at Army, where David Cutcliffe and his staff had two weeks to prepare for the Black Knights. The extra week didn't exactly help them against the triple-option as Army put up 226 yards on the ground. Now they face an even better triple-option attack led by Georgia Tech's TaQuon Marshall and KirVonte Benson, who have combined to rush for 1,864 yards and 22 touchdowns. The other thing here is the Blue Devils just aren't clicking offensively right now. Duke has scored more than 20 points just once in their last 6 games and that was a mere 21 against Virginia. They are averaging a whopping 14.0 ppg and 308.2 ypg in conference play. Georgia Tech in comparison is averaging 29.1 ppg and 392.3 ypg in ACC action. I just don't think the Blue Devils can score enough to keep this within a touchdown. Take Georgia Tech! *Play was upgraded from a 3* to a 5* |
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11-12-17 | Patriots v. Broncos +7.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 26 m | Show |
5* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Broncos + I like the value here with Denver catching over a touchdown at home against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. We were going to get a big time effort here from Denver regardless of where or when the game was being played, as they want to snap a 4-game skid, but they should be even more locked in with this being a prime time home game against Brady and the Patriots. There's not many negatives with Brady's remarkable career, but he's struggled to find a way to guide his team to a win at Denver. In fact, Brady is just 3-7 in his last 10 trips to Mile High Stadium. As well as the Patriots have been playing offensively, I think Von Miller and this Denver defense can hold them in check enough to not only cover the number, but potentially win the game outright. The biggest concern here for most people when it comes to taking Denver is whether they can generate enough offense. I think they can, as this Patriots defense is far from elite. New England is 25th against the run (121.5 ypg) and dead last against the pass (295.5 ypg). Take Denver! |
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11-11-17 | Rutgers +31 v. Penn State | Top | 6-35 | Win | 100 | 63 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers + I think one of the hardest things for the public to do is factor in the emotional letdown teams like Penn State have when they go from thinking they got a shot at making the playoffs and playing for a national championship to having absolutely nothing to play for this late in the season. They just go off what they have seen to this point and here they see a big mismatch in talent with the Nittany Lions going up against the Scarlet Knights. While Rutgers is a bottom-tier team in the Big Ten, they are a respectable 3-3 in Big Ten play and are playing with confidence right now, having won 3 of their last 4. While this game means nothing to Penn State, who it means everything to the Scarlet Knights, as they want to prove themselves against one of the elite teams in the conference, plus they still need two more wins to become bowl eligible. I'm not saying Rutgers is going to pull off the upset, but I think they can certainly keep this within the massive spread here against a disinterested Penn State team. Keep in mind the Nittany Lions are now just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 after a SU loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference loss. Take Rutgers! |
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11-04-17 | Oregon State v. California -7 | Top | 23-37 | Win | 100 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal - I really like the spot and the value we are getting with the Golden Bears only laying a touchdown at home against the Beavers. Oregon State is getting some love after covering each of their last 3, including a near upsets in each of their last two at home against Colorado and Stanford. Keeping it close against the Cardinal looks great on paper, but Stanford was without Love and simply aren't anywhere close to the same offensive force without him. Now the Beavers have to try and pick themselves off the mat yet again and I just don't see it happening on the road, where they are getting outscored by 29.3 ppg on the season. Cal should have beat Arizona in their last home game, but ended up losing 44-45. Their previous home game saw them knock off previously unbeaten Washington State 37-3. They also played USC tough at home and knocked off Ole Miss at home as a 4.5-point dog. Sitting at 4-5 and two road games left on the schedule, this is a must-win game for Cal if they want to make a bowl game in the first season under Justin Fuente and you can bet Fuente and his staff are going to do everything in their power to get to that 6-win mark to take advantage of the extra practice time that comes with a bowl game. Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Cal! |
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11-04-17 | Ohio State v. Iowa +17 | Top | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 114 h 28 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa + I think we are getting great value here with the Hawkeyes catching 3 scores at home against the Buckeyes. Ohio State just pulled off a miraculous 39-38 win at home against Penn State when it looked like they were primed to lose and in turn have their playoff hopes come crashing to the ground. That win may have saved their season, but I also think it puts them in a prime letdown spot here on the road against a stingy Iowa team, especially with a huge home game on deck against Michigan State that could end up deciding the Big Ten East title race. This isn't a great Iowa team by any means, but they have shown they can hang with the big boys, losing at home to Penn State by just 2 in a game the Nittany Lions needed a last second touchdown to pull out the win. The Hawkeyes were dominated in yards by Penn State, but just have a way of keeping games close regardless of the gap in talent, especially at home. All 3 of their losses this season have come by a touchdown or less. That streak might come to an end, but I think they do more than enough here to cover this big number. Hawkeyes are an impressive 27-5 ATS in their last 32 games against similar teams to Ohio State who are excellent rushing teams, averaging 5.25 or more yards/carry. They are also 18-5 in their last 23 vs a team that averages 37 or more points/game. Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa! |
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11-02-17 | Navy -8 v. Temple | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAF American Athletic (AAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy - I look for the Midshipmen to lay it on the Owls Thursday in big time revenge game for Navy, who lost to Temple in last year's AAC Championship Game. The Midshipmen are also going to be locked in after losing their last two against two of the better teams not just in the ACC but the country in Memphis and UCF. Note that Navy was right there with both of those teams and could have easily won each contest. Temple on the other hand has lost 4 of 5 with their only win coming against a sad East Carolina team. The Owls just lost at Army in OT and prior to that fell 24-28 as a double-digit home favorite to UConn. I just don't see Temple's defense being able to slow down Navy's triple-option attack. That will have the Midshipmen dominating the time of possession and I look for them to pull away in the 2nd half for a comfortable double-digit win. Navy has been a covering machine when they get the chance to play on Thursday, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in November. Take Navy! |
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11-02-17 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -23.5 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 69 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Mid-American (MAC) GAME OF THE MONTH  on Eastern Michigan - I got no problem laying this big number with the Eagles at home against the Cardinals. You will have a hard time finding a team that's playing worse than Ball State right now. They are 0-4 inside MAC play with the average loss coming by 42 points/game. The Cardinals are averaging a mere 8.0 ppg and giving up 50 ppg. Eastern Michigan is one of the better 2-6 teams you are going to find, as the Eagles have simply had some bad luck during their current 6-game losing streak, which has seen them lose all 6 games by a touchdown or less. That trend comes to an end tonight against the Cardinals. Note that Eastern Michigan lost at Toledo by 5, to W Michigan by 3 and at N. Illinois by 3. It just so happens that Ball State has also played those 3 teams and in those games were outscored 119-29. Cardinals are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 10 or more and the Eagles are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after the first month of the season and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after rushing for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game. Take Eastern Michigan! |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Wednesday NO LIMIT TOP PLAY on Western Michigan - I think we are getting some great value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown at home against the Chippewas. Western Michigan will be without starting quarterback Jon Wassink, but I liked what I saw out of true freshmen Reece Goddard when he came in and guided Western Michigan to an overtime win at Eastern Michigan. The big key here with Goddard and the Broncos offense is they shouldn't need him to throw the ball a lot to have success against this Central Michigan defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 20th ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 235.6 ypg. They have been even better than that with 252 ypg in conference play. The Chippewas are 98th against the run, giving up 192.1 ypg and have allowed 200+/game over their last 3. I also think the Broncos defense can keep Central Michigan's offense in check. Sure the Chippewas put up 56 last time out against Ball State, but the Cardinals defense is atrocious. Prior to that Central Michigan has scored 17 or fewer in 4 of their previous 5 games. I think they revert back here and struggle to make a game of this. Take Western Michigan! |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills -2 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 108 h 28 m | Show |
5* AFC No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bills - Everyone has fallen back in love with the Raiders after their crazy 31-30 win over the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. I think it has created some big time value here with Buffalo laying less the a field goal at home. The Bills are sitting at 4-2 and getting absolutely no love from anyone and I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder here at home against the Raiders. The thing with Oakland's offensive explosion against the Chiefs, you have to keep in mind that KC's defense has been giving up a ton of yards this season, they have didn't get the turnovers they are accustomed to and ran out of gas in the 4th quarter. Buffaloes defense is sitting 4th in the league, giving up just 16.8 ppg and let's not forget the Raiders are only averaging 15.3 ppg on the road this season. Another key here is that west coast teams like the Raiders often struggle to get going when they have to play on the east coast in the early set of games. It's also worth noting that it's expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of rain, which I think will only add to Oakland's struggles. Raiders are just 5-18 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home dog and are 0-8 ATS when that win comes against a division rival. Take Buffalo! |
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10-28-17 | Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 117 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tennessee + The perception with the Volunteers is they have thrown in the towel on this season and it's just a matter of time before Butch Jones is fired. While Jones is likely headed out of Knoxville, I'm not buying Tennessee's players not showing to play the rest of the way. I think the Vols take it personal that they are a near touchdown dog to Kentucky The Wildcats are 5-2, but have had some fortunate breaks in close games. In fact, all 5 of their wins have come by single-digits. This team certainly didn't look like a top tier team that should be laying this number against the Vols in last week's 38-point loss to Mississippi State. Tennessee has won 5 straight by 20+ ppg and are 31-1 all-time in the series with the Wildcats. Kentucky is 3-12 ATS when they come in having gone 4-2 or better in their last 6 games and 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they enter with 4 or more covers in their last 6 games. There's a great system in play that backs going against the grain with a struggling team like Tennessee. Teams that are getting outgained by 75 or more yards/game and off 2 straight games where they had 275 or less total yards are 34-12 (74%) ATS when they are listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Tennessee! |
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10-28-17 | Air Force +12 v. Colorado State | Top | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 113 h 50 m | Show |
5* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force + I think we are seeing an inflated number with Colorado State, due to the fact that the Rams have won 4 straight and are 4-0 in MWC play. The thing is, they haven't really played anyone in the conference with the 4 wins coming against Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico. They only beat the Lobos by 3 and were very fortunate in a 44-42 win against the Wolf Pack the week before. I'm not saying Colorado State isn't a good team, I just don't think they should be laying double-digits against a team like Air Force. The Falcons are 3-4, but have a 4-point loss to San Diego State and 3-point defeat at Navy. They also lost at Michigan in non-conference play and were competitive against the Wolverines, losing 13-29. Falcons come in with the 30th ranked offense in the country, thanks to the 5th ranked rushing attack, which is averaging 341.4 ypg. Colorado State's defense isn't anything special. They are 92nd in total defense, giving 419.9  ypg and are allowing 4.5 yards/rush. Falcons should be able to not only put points on the board, but limit the Rams possessions and shorten the game, which all adds value to this line. Take Air Force! |
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10-22-17 | Falcons v. Patriots -3 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 150 h 49 m | Show |
5* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Pats - I'll gladly take the Patriots laying just a field goal at home against a Falcons team that looks nothing like the team that cruised to last year's Super Bowl. Atlanta just lost at home off their bye 17-20 to the Dolphins and were up 17-0 at the half. The previous week they lost at home to the Bills and were lucky to come away with wins at both Chicago and Detroit. If it wasn't for what the Falcons accomplished last year, which means nothing, this line would be closer to a TD. Keep in mind that the Patriots have been an 8 or more points favorite in each of their previous 3 home games against playoff caliber teams in the Chiefs, Texans and Panthers. Sure Atlanta wants revenge, but Belichick and Brady won't let that happen. Not to mention the defense for the Patriots has looked a lot better the last two weeks and it was only a matter of time before Belichick glued the pieces back together on that side of the ball. With an offense that is scoring 28+ ppg, New England can easily turn this into a blowout if Ryan and Falcons continue to play like they have been on offense. I think it's pretty clear that Atlanta really misses offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and likely won't get back to that elite form we saw from them a year ago. Take New England! |
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10-22-17 | Panthers v. Bears +3 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 105 | 145 h 23 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Bears + The books are just begging for you to take Carolina laying only a field goal and the public is taking the bait. You have to take Chicago in this spot and there's plenty of reason to like the Bears. Chicago played the Falcons tough at home in Week 1 and then upset the Steelers at home in Week 3. Both of those came with Mike Glennon at quarterback and he was hurting the team more than he was helping it. I really like the decision to go to Trubisky and while he hasn't put up huge numbers, he's done a good job protecting the football. That's what the Bears need, as they got a very underrated defense and one of the league's best rushing attacks. Carolina strength is their defense, but it will be missing it's biggest piece on that side of the ball in linebacker Luke Kuechly. Not having him changes a lot and I think it's enough here for Chicago to win this game. The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog of 7 points or less and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games with a total set between 35.5 and 42 points. Take Chicago! |
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10-21-17 | LSU v. Ole Miss +7 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -105 | 141 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss + I really like the value we are getting here with Ole Miss at home. The Rebels have been an afterthought in the SEC West, largely because they aren't eligible for postseason play. They also have some ugly losses mixed in there, losing by 20+ to Cal, Alabama and Auburn. All of those were on the road. This team showed up in their SEC home opener last week, crushing a good Vanderbilt team 57-35. I think we get another great effort here by the Rebels and talent wise Ole Miss is every bit as good as LSU. They also are playing with revenge from an embarrassing 21-38 loss to at LSU last year. The Tigers looked lost early against Auburn last week, falling behind 20-0 before rallying to win 27-23. That was a big game at home against a Top 10 opponent. I think the Tigers put everything they had into that one and are going to have a hard time showing up for this game. This is still the same LSU team that lost to Troy at home and by 30 at Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the skill players in the passing game to attack this Tigers defense. I look for the Rebels to score early and often this one. Should have no problem keeping this within a touchdown and wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Take Ole Miss! |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
5* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders + I really like the value here with Oakland catching points at home in a prime time Thursday night matchup. It can't be underestimated how tough it is on the road team in these Thursday game and this a long trip out West for the Chiefs. Kansas City has been praised as the league's best team, but looked nothing like it in last week's home loss to the Steelers, where they couldn't even get a first down in the 1st half. It has them overvalued here by the books. Oakland has lost 4 straight and are now just 2-4 on the season. A loss here and there hopes of making the playoffs take a huge hit. This is every bit a "must-win" game for the home team Expect to see the Raiders lay everything on the line and you can count on a rowdy and loud crowd here, as these two fan bases hate the opposing team. The home team has a big edge in these rivalry games and I look for the Raiders to save their season here and pull out the win. Take Oakland! |
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10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins -9.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -105 | 134 h 16 m | Show |
5* NFL Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins - I'm not the least bit concerned about laying this big number with Washington at home in Week 6. This is not only an ideal spot to back the Redskins, but also a perfect situation to fade the 49ers. Washington comes in at just 2-2, but there two losses have come against the Eagles and Chiefs. Two teams who are currently a combined 10-1 on the season. The Redskins were right there with a chance to win both. The last time out was a 20-29 loss at KC on Monday Night Football, a game they likely would have won had Dotson been able to hold on to a TD grab late in the 4th quarter. Taking that defeat into the bye will have the Redskins chomping at the bit to get back on the field for this one. As for the 49ers, they quick turnaround some where hoping for in the first year under new head coach Kyle Shanahan hasn't happened. San Francisco has started out 0-5 and while they have been competitive in their last 4, they are in a dreaded spot here playing their third straight game on the road. Making it even harder on the 49ers is the fact that they are a west coast team having to travel across the country for an early start time against the Redskins. I think they struggle to show up for this one and expect this to turn into a blowout early. San Francisco has struggled over the last 3 years against good offensive teams, who average 5.65 or more yards/play. The 49ers are just 3-11 ATS vs these teams and have lost these contests by an average of 12.7 ppg. Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Take Washington! |
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10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings +3 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
5* NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings + Minnesota shouldn't be a dog at home to the Packers, but since Green Bay is such a public team and off 3 straight wins and two consecutive covers, including that big comeback win last week against the Cowboys, this line has been inflated with the books knowing the public will continue to back Aaron Rodgers and the Packers no matter the cost. Another reason this line is what it is, is because starting quarterback Sam Bradford has been ruled out for this game. The thing is, Case Keenum has played extremely well in replace of Bradford and really sparked the offense once he came in for an injured Bradford last week against the Bears. Keenum is completing 65% of his passes and most importantly has taken care of the football with a 4-0 TD-INT ratio. Keenum gets to take on a banged up Packers secondary that is without starting safety Morgan Burnett and corner Kevin King. Fellow starting corner Davon House is also questionable. Another player that has stepped up on offense is Jerick McKinnon, who has taken over for the injured Dalvin Cook. McKinnon put up 95 yards on 16 attempts against a good Bears run defense and is averaging 4.7 yards/carry (Cook was averaging 4.8 ypc). He should be able to keep it going here against a Green Bay defense that ranks 22nd against the run, allowing 121.4 ypg. I also like this Minnesota defense against the Packers offense, which continues to deal with injuries on the offensive line. Rodgers will make some plays, but with the running game figuring to struggle against this stout Vikings front 7, I think the Vikings stop unit makes enough plays to win this one outright. Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games with a 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record. Take Minnesota! |
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10-14-17 | Texas A&M v. Florida -3 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
4* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida - I like the value here with needing the Gators to simply win by more than a field goal at home against Texas A&M. Florida came up on the short end of the stick in last week's 16-17 home loss to LSU, where the difference in the game was a missed extra point. I expect a pissed off Gators team to take the field with the mentality of not dropping another game in the swamp. Note that loss to the Tigers was only the second home defeat Florida has suffered under Jim McElwain. While the Gators will be chomping at the bit to take the field in this one, Texas A&M enters this game in a prime letdown spot, as they just put everything they had into last week's home game against Alabama. Note it's not been good for the Aggies in their next conference game after playing Alabama the last two years. In 2015 they lost 23-3 at Ole Miss as a mere 5-point dog and last year lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as a 10-point favorite. On top of that, Texas A&M has had trouble rebounding from any loss when it comes to covering the spread, as they are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. They are also just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 vs a team with a winning record and only 18-46-1 ATS in their last 65 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Florida! |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 105 h 0 m | Show |
5* No Limit SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU I really like the value here with LSU catching a touchdown on their home field against Auburn. LSU bounced back in a big way from that ugly loss at home to Troy with a 17-16 win on the road over Florida, who came in at 3-0 in SEC play. LSU desperately needed that win to get their confidence back up and I look for them to carry over that momentum with their best effort of the season at home against a Top 10 opponent. Auburn comes in having won 4 straight with three straight blowout wins inside conference play. The thing is, one was on the road against a bad Missouri team and the other two were at home against Mississippi State and Ole Miss, who are both bottom tier teams in the SEC. I believe it has Auburn way overvalued here on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the country. I know the Auburn defense has been playing lights out, but don't underestimate this LSU defense. They come in ranked 18th in the country, giving up just 309 ypg. The closest defense Auburn has seen this year is Clemson and they managed just 6 points and a mere 117 yards of total offense. LSU isn't on Clemson's level, but that's a good sign that they can keep Auburn in check. Keep in mind points become that much more valuable in a lower scoring game. LSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of October, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous contest and the home team is a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take LSU! |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
5* Eagles/Panthers TNF Vegas BEST BET on Panthers - I really like the value here with Carolina laying only a field goal at home against the Eagles. Both of these teams are off to a strong start, as each is sitting at 4-1. I'm just not sold on Philadelphia being the cream of the crop in the NFC, as they have padded their record over the last 3 weeks against the Giants, Charger and Cardinals, who are all off to miserable starts. Carson Wentz is getting a ton of praise right now, but he's about to face his toughest challenge of the season in this Carolina defense. The Panthers are rock solid against both the run and the pass. They are 6th in run defense, giving up just 80 ypg and 5th against the pass, allowing only 194 ypg. Add in the fact that are playing at home in a prime time game and the defense should be even better than normal, as they feed off the energy of the crowd. Wentz is also a guy that will try to force the football into tight spots and I think he has a couple costly turnovers here. The Panthers offense got off to a slow start, as Newton just wasn't right to start the season with that shoulder injury. He looks to have it back to near 100% and has really taken off the last two games, throwing for more than 300 yards on the road against the Patriots and Lions. It won't be as easy against the Eagles defense, but I'm confident he will make enough plays here to get the win and cover. When Carolina gets rolling they tend to keep covering. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS under Rivera when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. They are also an impressive 32-13 ATS under Rivera after playing their previous game on the road. Eagles on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away from home. Take Carolina! |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 39 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Panthers + I love the value here with Carolina as a road dog against the Lions. The Panthers were already playing Super Bowl caliber defense early on and they got the offense rolling last week in their 33-30 upset win over the Patriots as a 9-point dog. I look for Carolina to keep that momentum going against the Lions. Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after totaling 350 or more total yards and I think we see a big game here out of Cam Newton after all the negative publicity he's received from his comments in the media. This Detroit defense has been very fortunate early on, as they have forced 11 turnovers in 4 games, 3 time recording 3 or more. On the flip side, they have only turned it over 2 times. I'm willing to be that starts to even out. I really think we see some turnovers by the offense in this one, as the Panthers are too talented and couldn't be more due after not forcing a single turnover in their last 3 games. Backing this up is the fact that the Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams that are forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game. Detroit is stil just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous contest. Take Carolina! |
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10-07-17 | Arizona +7 v. Colorado | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 97 h 3 m | Show |
5* NCAAF No Limit 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Arizona + I really like the value here with the Wildcats catching a full touchdown on the road against the Buffaloes. I actually think this line should be a lot closer to a field goal and I'm fully expecting Arizona to win this game outright. The Wildcats lost 24-30 to Utah back on 9/22 in a game they had to feel like they should have won. Arizona outgained the Utes 448 to 341. The difference in the game being they turned it over 5 times. That loss couldn't have set well over their bye week and I expect a well rested and focused Wildcats team in this one. The key here is they are catching Colorado at the perfect time. The Buffaloes are coming off two huge games against Washington and UCLA. I wouldn't be shocked if they came out a bit flat here, as won by 25 at Arizona last year. I think the key matchup here will be Arizona's defense against an underachieving Colorado offense. To only score 23 points against that Bruins defense is concerning. They also had just 10 points against Washington at home and only 17 against Colorado State. Arizona's defense is only giving up 22.3 ppg and are much improved on that side of the ball. The Wildcats offense is averaging over 40 ppg and is 25th in total offense at 479 ypg. Arizona should have the much easier time moving the ball here and that makes them an easy play at this line. Take Arizona! |
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10-07-17 | LSU +3 v. Florida | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Afternoon ATS 'VEGAS INSIDER' on LSU + I really like this spot for the Tigers, who are coming off that embarrassing loss at home to Troy last week. The perception couldn't be any worse on LSU, yet they are only a short dog on the road against a Florida team that is sitting at 3-1 with a 3-0 record in the SEC. That tells me the books also like the Tigers here, as the public will lineup to take the Gators at this price. There's no excuse for losing to a Sun Belt team, but LSU was without one of their best players in RB Derrius Guice, who is expected to be back on the field for this game. I think he has a big game here against an overrated Florida defense, which comes in ranked 60th against the run and 82nd against the pass. I also think the Gators are overvalued right now, as they could very easily be 1-3 instead of 3-1, winning on last second plays against both Tennessee and Kentucky. You also have to factor in the injury/suspension situation for Florida. That makes it tough to compete with a team like LSU, who I still think is one of the better teams in the country. Florida is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a game in which they covered the spread. LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 27-13 in their last 40 road games after a loss. Take LSU! |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State +4.5 | Top | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 57 h 42 m | Show |
5* Lou/NC State ACC 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on NC State + I really like the value here with the Wolfpack catching points at home against the Cardinals on Thursday. I actually NC State is the better team in this matchup and should be the ones favored. The thing is the public is drawn to Louisville and reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, so the books have no choice but to inflate their lines. The Cardinals haven't really been all that impressive so far. They were fortunate to leave with a win over Purdue in their opener, only led UNC by 1-point going into the 4th quarter and were absolutely dominated by Clemson at home. Jackson is still putting up video game type numbers, but the offense as a whole hasn't been as good and the defense is a lot worse. He really struggled against the dominant defensive front of Clemson and NC State has quite a front of their own, who will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after last year's 13-54 loss at Louisville. The defensive numbers are better than they actually are because of their last two games against Kent State and Murray State, where they allowed a combined 230 total yards. This defense allowed 293 yards passing to Purdue, 384 to UNC and 316 to Clemson. NC State and junior QB Ryan Finley come in with the 24th ranked passing offense in the country at 293.0 ypg. Look for the Wolfpack to big up some big plays through the air that should allow some separation. Take NC State! |
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09-30-17 | Iowa v. Michigan State -3 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Vegas Insider 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Michigan State - I love the value here getting Michigan State as a slim 3-point favorite at home against the Hawkeyes. This is an ideal spot to fade Iowa off that huge Saturday night home game against No. 4 Penn State, which they let slip through their fingers on the final play of regulation. On the flip side of this, we get Michigan State in an ideal bounce back spot off a blowout loss at home to Notre Dame. Even if the situation was different, I would lay just a field goal at home with the Spartans. The biggest thing is I just don't think Iowa team is as good as people think. Sure they kept it close against the Nittany Lions, but they also beat Michigan in a similar spot a year ago and weren't that great. Wins over Wyoming, Iowa State and North Texas leave little to be desired. Also, that game against Penn State could have been a lot worse. Iowa's offense was atrocious for pretty much the entire first half and ran about has as many plays as the Nittany Lions. They could have just as easily lost by 20+. As for Michigan State, they were a lot more competitive against Notre Dame than the final score would lead on, as they outgained the Irish 496 to 355. They come in ranked 9th in the country in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg. If Iowa thought it was tough at home moving the ball against the Nittany Lions, they are in for a really long day on the road against a pissed of Spartans team. Take Michigan State! |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
5* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Cardinals + I like the value here with Arizona catching a field goal, plus the hook at home against the Cowboys.  Arizona was able to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start with an ugly 16-13 win at Indianapolis in Week 2. While that's not what you would expect from Arizona against a bad Colts team, the Cardinals have really not been a good road team the last few years. They are much better at home and I think that's where the value is here, as this will be the Cardinals home opener on Monday Night Football. We are also getting value because of how big a public team Dallas is. Even after an awful showing last week at Denver, the public is pounding the Cowboys and will continue to do so. I wouldn't be shocked if this line started to move and would still recommend taking Arizona as a dog of any price here. The Cardinals run defense has been on point early on, as they held the Lions to just 82 yards on 27 attempts and the Colts to 75 on 29 attempts. I don't expect them to shutdown the Cowboys rushing attack, but I do think they slow them down and that all you have to do to give this Dallas offense problems. As for the Cowboys defense, we saw what Trevor Siemian did to them last week and would expect similar numbers here from Carson Palmer. Dallas is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 350 or more yards in their previous game. Cowboys are also a miserable 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played on Monday Night Football. Take Arizona! |
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09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3.5 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
5* AFC Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Bills + I really like the value with Buffalo catching over a field goal at home against the Broncos. This is a big time letdown spot for Denver, who has started out 2-0 and off that huge win at home over the Cowboys. The Bills on the other hand are just 1-1 and not a team the public wants a whole lot to do with, but they have played well early on. Buffalo handled the Jets at home in rather convincing fashion and despite an offense that couldn't move the ball, hung in their with the Panthers on the road in week 2. The Bills managed just 176 total yards in last week's game against Carolina, but that's actually a positive when it comes to covering the spread this week. Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a performance where they totaled less than 250 yards. Denver on the other hand is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win by more than 14 points and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Bills. Take Buffalo! |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* Rams/49ers NFC West 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on 49ers +3 The public is all over the Rams in this one, but I really like the value here with San Francisco a division dog. The 49ers have had a miserable start to the season. They got blowout at home by the Panthers in Week 1 23-3 and then blew a lead late in a 9-12 loss at Seattle. The thing is, those are two of the NFC's best teams and two of the elite defense in the NFL. The Rams looked great in their opener against the Colts, but so will a lot of teams. They came back the next week and lost at home to the Redskins, getting outgained by more than 50 yards and totaled just 14 first downs to Washington's 21. I look for the 49ers defense to really make things tough on Jared Goff and this Rams offense. You also have to keep in mind that San Francisco seems to always play well at home in these prime time games. A lot of you will likely remember last year's week 1 opener on MNF, which they won 28-0. Rams have gone 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the NFC and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. 49ers have covered 4 straight against division opponents. Take San Francisco! |
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09-17-17 | Patriots v. Saints +7 | Top | 36-20 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
5* NFL Vegas Insider 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Saints + After a close look into this one, I think this line is just too high to pass up on New Orleans at home against a Patriots team that is dealing with some serious injuries on both sides of the ball. I don't think it's out of the question that New Orleans wins here outright.  New England had the looks of the best team in the NFL coming into the season, but then they lost arguably their most important offensive player not named Tom Brady in wide out Julian Edelman for the season, who was by far Brady's favorite target. To make matters worse, wide out Malcolm Mitchell, who shined as a rookie was put on IR and Danny Amendola is questionable. Even with the extra days to prepare, there's just not going to be that chemistry with the receivers that really make the Pats offense so good. Defensively New England is expected to be without the one guy they really don't have the ability to replace in linebacker Dont'a Hightower. Just look at what the Chiefs did to this defense once he went out in the 2nd half. Now they got to face a real QB in Drew Brees on his home turf, where he's torched any and every defense that has visited the Superdome. With how bad a shape the Pats are defensively, I just don't see New England running away with this thing. I see a one possession game that could go either way. Take New Orleans! |
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09-16-17 | Oklahoma State v. Pittsburgh +14 | Top | 59-21 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Non-Conference 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Pittsburgh + I believe the fact that Oklahoma State has looked so impressive early and Pittsburgh is coming off a 14-33 loss at Penn State, the line has been inflated too much not to take the Panthers. The Cowboys have looked good, but let's not overreact to wins over a Tulsa team that is down this year and a South Alabama team that trailed Ole Miss 47-13 before a couple of late scores to make it seem respectable. Keep in mind that these two teams played last year at Oklahoma State and while the Cowboys won, they did so by a final of 45-38 and were a mere 3-pt favorite in that contest. If you didn't watch the Pitt/Penn St game you would think the Panthers got dominated on the field. That wasn't the case at all. Pitt actually outgained Penn State 342-312. You might also see they needed OT to escape with a  28-21 win at home against Youngstown State. That program played in the FCS Championship Game last year. I believe that if the Panthers can slow down the Nittany Lions and their explosive playmakers, they can do the same to the Cowboys. The fact that Oklahoma State has faced zero resistance from either defense they have faced could make it tough for them to adjust to actually having to work for first downs. Throw in a lookahead game against a now ranked TCU team and this game being in Pitt, I wouldn't be shocked if the Panthers won this one outright. Which is why I love them catching two touchdowns. Take Pittsburgh! |
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09-15-17 | Illinois v. South Florida -17 | Top | 23-47 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Friday Night 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on South Florida - The public is jumping on the Illinois bandwagon after their 20-7 win at home over Western Kentucky as a 7-point dog. They see too many points against a USF team that has failed to cover each of their first two games. I'm going to the other way here and backing the Bulls in what I feel will be a blowout. The thing with South Florida is expectations were sky-high this season, as most were calling for them to be undefeated. For them to struggle on the road against San Jose State and at home against Stony Brook is nothing to worry about. They knew they just had to show up to win those games. I expect to see a different intensity from this team when they take the field at home in a prime time night game on ESPN. The win for Illinois of the Hilltoppers looks good on paper, but keep in mind that WKU is down this year with just 10 returning starters and most importantly lost head coach Jeff Brohm, who already appears to have had a huge impact on the Boilermakers. Keep in mind the Illini could have easily lost their opener at home to Ball State, a game they trailed going into the 4th quarter and were outgained on the contest 375 to 216. I just don't see Illinois being able to keep pace offensively with Quinton Flowers and the Bulls high-powered offense. Take USF! |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
5* Chargers/Broncos MNF 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Chargers + The Chargers are a team that I'm high on coming into the year, while the Broncos are one that I have huge concerns with. I'm going to take the points with Los Angeles in this AFC West clash. The reason Denver was able to win 9 games last year was their defense and while they will still rely on that side of the ball, they don't look as strong defensively in 2017. Some of that is the guys they let go like safety T.J. Ward. More than anything it's the injuries that have piled up in the offseason. They won't have the lakes of Shane Ray, who was penciled in as the starter for DeMarcus Ware. They have guys like Aqib Talib and Dereck Wolfe that are playing at less than 100%. Los Angeles is without their prized rookie wide out Mike Williams, but have a ton of weapons on the offensive side of the ball and a legit QB in veteran Philip Rivers. Denver's offense is a mess, as they weren't expecting Trevor Siemian to still be their starter (had hoped it would Paxton Lynch, but he's not looked the part). Keep in mind the Broncos were in the bottom 4 last year in drives that went 3 and out. They couldn't run the football (27th) and were horrible in the red-zone (26th). Even with what will be a hostile environment, I see the Chargers having the easier time putting points on the board, making them the easy play catching a field goal. Take Los Angeles! |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 28 m | Show |
5* NFL Week 1 'GAME OF THE YEAR' on Bears + I think the value here is with Chicago catching a touchdown on their home field. The public is going to want absolutely nothing to do with the Bears against a Falcons team that they just saw play in the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers know that and have inflated this line to force the public to pay a hefty price to back Atlanta here. If you follow the NFL closely, you know that it’s often a lot harder for the team who loses the Super Bowl to bounce back the next season. We saw this first hand last year with the Panthers. Carolina went 15-1 in the regular season and cruised to the Super Bowl, where they were stunned by the Broncos. The Panthers not only missed the playoffs, they went a mere 6-10. I’m not saying the Falcons are going to suffer that kind of setback, but it’s not out of the question. I could certainly see them starting off slow. Star wideout Julio Jones has missed a good chunk of the offseason recovering from toe surgery. He’s the one guy that really makes this offense go, as opposing teams have to pay so much attention to him. The other key here is I don’t think the Bears are as bad as people think. They did a nice job building up the depth on the roster this offseason. Keep in mind they had 6 losses last year by a touchdown or less and all 3 of their wins came on their home field. I don't think an outright win is out of the question. I think the offense is more than capable of having some success here and I think the defense will be able to do just enough to slow down the Falcons offense. A lot of people overlook the fact that Chicago ranked in the top half of the league against both the run (15th) and the pass (3rd). Take the Bears! |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -6 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
5* Stanford/USC Pac-12 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on USC - I think the books are setting a trap here and begging the public to load up on Stanford here, when the smart play is to take the Trojans at home in a huge revenge spot. The fact that USC struggled with Western Michigan has a lot of people second-guessing this team. On the flip side, Stanford left nothing to doubt in their 62-7 win over Rice, as McCaffrey's replacement, Bryce Love, racked up 180 yards on just 13 carries. Had P.J. Fleck still been on the sidelines for Western Michigan, I think that win over the Broncos wouldn’t feel like a disappointment. The thing is most of those kids were Fleck’s recruits and that team is a lot better than people think. You also have to think that USC was looking just a little ahead to this game. Not only do they have big time revenge against the Cardinal, but this feels like a must-win for their program if they want to get back to that elite level. The biggest thing a lot of people are going to see is how USC’s defense couldn’t stop the run against Western Michigan. They will assume that Stanford is going to be able to run all over them. A more focused and motivated Trojan defense should have a much better showing in this one. Keep in mind it’s the defense that feeds the most off the energy of the crowds in these big time nationally televised games. As for the Cardinal’s blowout win over Rice, don’t read too much into that. The Owls’ program has been on a free fall of late and coming off a 3-9 campaign. They are once again picked to finish near the bottom of the C-USA. I’m one that believes this USC team is the real deal. They have now won 10 straight dating back to last year’s 9-game winning streak to end the season. Of those 10 wins, 8 have come by more than a touchdown. Don't be surprised if this one turns into a blowout. Take USC! |
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09-08-17 | Ohio +4 v. Purdue | Top | 21-44 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Friday Night 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Ohio + I think a lot of people are going to look at the fact that Purdue was ultra competitive against Louisville as a sign that this team is legit. With that they will assume they should be able to win by at least a touchdown in their home opener over a MAC team. Winning 59-0 over a crap FCS school isn’t going to sway the public towards the Bobcats. The thing is, Ohio is more than capable of winning this game outright. This has the makings of one of the Bobcats better teams in the Frank Solich era (13th year). This team played Western Michigan tough in the MAC title game last year, losing 23-29 as a 17-point dog, so there's clearly some talent here. They aren’t going to be the least bit intimidated playing on the road against a team like Purdue. They won at Kansa by 16 last year and lost by single-digits at Tennessee. A big concern I have with Purdue is them suffering a letdown. Even if you are big underdog, letting a 8-point lead slip away in the final 25 minutes is going to hurt. They could also be looking ahead to a big road game at Missouri next week, followed by their Big Ten home opener against the Wolverines. Another concern for me is the Purdue offense. While the score was close against Louisville, they only had 51 rushing yards on 21 attempts (2.4 yards/carry). A big part of the struggles on the ground had to do with last year’s leading rusher Markell Jones suffering an injury. One that will keep him out of this game. The Boilermakers also committed 4 turnovers and were aided by 16 Louisville penalties for 110 yards. That game could have been a lot uglier than it was. It’s also worth noting that Ohio is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road games, while Purdue is a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing on 6 or less days of rest. Take the Bobcats! |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
5* Chiefs/Patriots NFL 'VEGAS INSIDER' Top Play on Chiefs + After a long look at this one, I really like the value here with Kansas City as a near double-digit underdog against the Patriots. New England is getting way to much respect from the books and with the public all over them, they got not choice but to inflate this line. I have some major concerns with the Pats going into the season. The loss of Julian Edelman is a major blow to everything that NE does offensively. He's the guy that Brady looks to more than anyone and without him I think this offense will struggle to move the ball. At least against a top level defense like the Chiefs, who could really cause the Patriots problems if Justin Houston and Dee Ford are able to put pressure on Brady. I also think people are overlooking New England's defense and how it could struggle this year. They certainly didn't play much defense in the preseason. The Chiefs aren't considered an offensive juggernaut, but they got two big time weapons in the passing game in Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce. I also think people are going to be surprised with how well rookie RB Kareem Hunt fills in for Spencer Ware. While Belichick is in a class of his own, Andy Reid is one of the top coaches in the league and his teams rarely under perform when given extra time to prepare. The Chiefs are a great matchup for NE, as they too don't turn the ball over and excel at special teams. I see this one coming right down to the wire. Take Kansas City! |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
5* Super Bowl 51 NO LIMIT Top Play on Patriots - I think the experience New England has of being in this spot, is a much bigger advantage than people think. Two things that I look for when making my Super Bowl pick, is the team with the better defense and head coach. I think New England has the clear edge in both of those departments. One of the big questions that I keep hearing in the media is how will the Patriots slow down Atlanta’s offense. I understand the question, given what the Falcons have done to Seattle and Green Bay. What is getting overlooked, is neither of those defenses were 100% in the secondary. Seattle was without Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman was playing on a bum knee. As for the Packers, that defense has been decimated for quite a while now. New England finished 8th in the NFL in total defense (326.4 ypg) and 1st in points allowed (15.6 ppg). The Patriots don’t have a bunch of superstars on this side of the ball, but are solid across the board. More than anything, Belichick puts them in positions to excel. Each week he puts together a gameplan specific for the opponent they are playing. Trust me, if anyone can slow down the Falcons, it’s Belichick. Especially when you give him two weeks to prepare. People should be asking how will Atlanta’s defense stop New England from scoring. The Patriots were 4th in the NFL in total offense (386.3 ypg) and 3rd in scoring (27.6 ppg). They put up 34 on the Texans and 36 on the Steelers in their two playoff games. Both of which I feel are better than what Atlanta faced. The Falcons defense has looked good in their last two games playing with big leads. However, this is a unit that wasn’t anything special this year. Atlanta was 25th in total defense (371.2 ypg) and 27th in points allowed (25.4 ppg). I almost get the feeling that a lot of the action here on the Falcons is more out of the hate for the Patriots. Most of the public doesn’t like this team and are sick of them winning. The thing is, New England is 4-2 with Brady/Belichick in the Super Bowl. If not for two ridiculous drives by the Eli Manning, they would be 6-0. |
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -6 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
5* Steelers/Patriots AFC Champ Game ATS No Brainer on Patriots - I like the value here with New England laying less than a touchdown at home. I’m not concerned with how the Patriots looked in their win over the Texans. The fact that they won by 18 and didn’t even play well says a lot about just how good this team is. Belichick will be sure to remind them of how poorly they played against Houston and that should have New England 100% locked in for this one. My biggest concern with the Chiefs last week against the Steelers was their ability to stop Le’Veon Bell. It proved to be the difference, as Bell rushed 30 times for 170 yards (5.7 yards/carry). His big game overshadowed a not so great game for Roethlisberger. As mentioned in the Chiefs/Steelers preview last week, Big Ben is just not the same quarterback on the road as he is at home. I believe the Patriots will be able to keep Bell in check and ultimately win this game by at least a touchdown. Keep in mind New England was 3rd in the NFL against the run, allowing just 88.6 ypg. In that first meeting against the Steelers, they held Bell to just 81 yards on 21 attempts. That’s only 3.9 yards/carry. You also can’t overlook just how big a homefield edge the Patriots have in the playoffs. Since Roethlisberger took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 1-3 in games played in New England. The only win coming in the 2008 regular season with Matt Cassell at QB for the Patriots. New England is also 7-2 in the last 9 including that game without Brady in 08. The Patriots have also been covering machines against teams like the Steelers. NE is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against teams who give up 5.65 or more yards/play on defense. They are also 15-4 ATS in their last 19 against teams who average 5.65 or more yards/play on offense. Patriots are also 12-3 ATS in home games over the last 2 years and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 17 points or less. On top of that, I don't see how the Antonio Brown distraction helps the Steelers and Pittsburgh has also been hit with the flu bug. Take New England! |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
5* Steelers/Chiefs AFC Div Round Vegas Insider on Chiefs - I love the value here with Kansas City laying less than a field goal at home. It would be easy to look at that first meeting and just assume the Steelers will dominate the Chiefs again. The thing is, this is no where close to the same Kansas City team that got embarrassed in early October. Just about everything that could go wrong in that first meeting for the Chiefs did. They fumbled on their second position, leading to a Pittsburgh touchdown. The very next time they had the ball they threw an interception. Setting up another easy score. At that point the Steelers had all the momentum. Keep in mind that was big spot for the Pittsburgh. Playing at home in a prime time game and off an ugly 31-point loss the previous week at Philadelphia. Revenge is a big time motivator, but it’s not the main factor in why I like the Chiefs. That would be the history of Kansas City head coach Andy Reid off a bye. As a head coach with the Eagles and Chiefs, Reid’s teams are 19-2 when playing with a bye. That includes a perfect 3-0 record in the playoffs (all with the Eagles). Note that KC had one of it’s better games off a bye this season. They went into Oakland and dominated the Raiders 26-10. Outgaining Oakland 406 to 285. The other big thing here is the change in venue. Pittsburgh a lot more vulnerable on the road than they are at home. The offense just doesn't produce at the same level, most notably Big Ben goes from an elite signal caller at home to average on the road. At the same time, the Chiefs have one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. Arrowhead is going to be crazy on Sunday. A few big differences for the Chiefs compared to the first meeting. One is Tyreek Hill’s emergence as a major weapon both on offense an in the return game. Tight end Travis Kelce has also taken his game to a whole different level. The other is Justin Houston, who when at his best is one of the elite pass rushers in the game. I also think KC’s secondary is playing much better now than they were early in the year. A big part of that is the emergence of corner Terrance Mitchell. He’s made it tough on teams who don’t want to challenge Pro Bowl corner Marcus Peters on the other side. Keep in mind the Chiefs secondary was banged up in that first meeting with the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games and we have a big time system in favor of the Chiefs. Home favorites whgo have won 3 of their last 4 against a team that's won 8 or more of their last 10 are 27-5 (84%) ATS over the last 10 seasons with a perfect 11-0 record over the last 3 years. Take Kansas City! |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +7 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 12 m | Show |
5* Clemson/Alabama National Championship Vegas Insider on Clemson I think the value here is clearly with the Tigers catching almost a touchdown. Clemson proved last year they can hang with Alabama. In fact, you could argue they outplayed the Crimson Tide given the stats. Clemson had a 550 to 473 edge in total yards and 33-18 advantage in first downs. The thing is that there’s so much love for the SEC and Alabama, the books have no choice but to inflate this number. There’s a lot of talk about how great this Crimson Tide defense is. There’s no denying it’s good, I just don’t know that it’s as elite as people think. The numbers going into the championship game aren’t all that far off from last year. They are allowing 11.4 ppg and 244 ypg. Last year they gave up 15.1 ppg and 276 ypg. The thing to keep in mind, is the SEC wasn’t nearly as good this year as it was in 2015. Keep in mind that they went into the title game last season off a dominant defensive effort. They had just shutout Michigan State in a 38-0 win. Holding the Spartans to just 239 yards and 16 first downs. One of the reasons that Alabama puts up such great defensive numbers in the SEC, is there’s not a lot of great QB’s. I know Browning got a lot of love, but I don’t think he’s what people make him out to be. The two best quarterbacks the Tide faced in the SEC were Chad Kelly from Ole Miss and Austin Allen from Arkansas. Kelly went 26 of 40 for 421 yards and 3 TDs, as the Rebels put up 43 points. Allen went 25 of 48 for 400 yards and 3 TDs. Clemson’s Deshaun Watson is better than both of those guys. I think we are going to see the Tigers offense put up a big number here. The big difference this time around, is Alabama’s offense isn’t as good. Jalen Hurts just isn’t as big of a threat in the passing game as Coker was last season. In fact, this Crimson Tide offense reminds me a lot of what Clemson just faced in Ohio State. If that wasn’t enough, Alabama fired offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin after the semifinal game. Steve Sarkisian will fill the void. Whether you like Kiffin or not, he’s an excellent offensive mind. He excelled at making adjustments mid game and getting the players in spots to succeed. I don’t know how big the drop off will be, but I don’t think it’s going to be as good as it would have been. I also think there’s a big edge to the team who lost the first meeting in these rematch scenarios. I’ll gladly take the points as insurance, but I think the Tigers win this one outright. Take Clemson! |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
5* NFL Wild Card Game of the Year on Texans - This all comes down to Oakland playing without Carr. As I stated last week in my preview, you just don’t lose an MVP-caliber player and not suffer a setback. Especially at the quarterback position. Without Carr, this Raiders team would have been lucky to win 4-games. Keep in mind that 10 of their 12 wins came by 10-points or less. Several of which he made the difference with big plays when it mattered most in the 4th quarter. Given that, I think the value here is clearly with the Texans, who were a dominate team at home this season, going 7-1 in their 8 games. As we saw against the Broncos, the Raiders offense was a shell of itself without Carr. I know Denver has one of the more respected defenses in the league, but they were missing a lot of key players. That same Broncos defense gave up 33 points and 484 yards the previous week the Chiefs. I just don’t see it getting any better on the road against a very talented Texans defense that ranked 12th against the run, 2nd against the pass and allowed just 16.6 ppg at home. Not only will Oakland not have Carr, but they also won't have backup Matt McGloin. They instead will have to turn to rookie Connor Cook, who is forced with the near impossible task of being asked to win in his first career start on the road in the playoffs. Cook is going to have to throw for the Raiders to move the ball. When these two teams played earlier this season, the Texans held them to just 30 yards on 20 attempts. Carr was the difference maker in the win, going 21 of 31 for 295 yards and 3 scores. It’s no secret the Texans don’t have a great offense. However, this is a team they can have success against. Even with Osweiler at quarterback. Oakland was 23rd against the run and 24th against the pass. Houston had 124 rushing yards and Osweiler threw for 243 in the earlier matchup. The thing is that there's so much negative talk about Osweiler that it's actually keeping this spread lower than it should be. I think the Texans offense is more than capable of putting up 20+ points here. They should have great field position the majority of the game. At the same, I don’t know that Oakland can score 14 points and wouldn't be surprised if they failed to reach double-digits, so it's not like the Texans offense has to do a ton here to win and cover. Take Houston! |
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