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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-20 | Steelers -1.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 34 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -1½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-24-20 | Air Force -6.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 6-17 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 44 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Air Force -6½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State +4.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-59 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 19 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Georgia State +4½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina +7 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 1 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Coastal Carolina +7 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints -7.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 14 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Saints -7½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-11-20 | Eagles v. Steelers -7 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 147 h 2 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Steelers -7 -109 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-10-20 | Florida -6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 40 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Florida -6½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -112 | 115 h 41 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Louisville -4½ -112 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston -4.5 | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 91 h 11 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Houston -4½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 180 h 35 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Packers -6½ -105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-03-20 | Navy +1.5 v. Air Force | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 46 m | Show |
5* Academy Game of the Year on Navy + All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU -24 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on BYU -24 -105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 177 h 53 m | Show |
5* MNF GOY on Ravens -3 -120 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-27-20 | Rams +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 24 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Rams +2½ -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-26-20 | Iowa State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 124 h 8 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Iowa State -2½ -119 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Middle Tennessee State +7 -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
5* NO BRAINER on Jaguars -3 +105 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-20-20 | Patriots +4.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -110 | 167 h 13 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Patriots +4½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest +3 v. NC State | Top | 42-45 | Push | 0 | 136 h 39 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Wake Forest +3 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-13-20 | Browns v. Ravens -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Ravens -7 -115 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette +11.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 125 h 1 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on UL-Lafayette +11½ -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 58 h 48 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Chiefs -9 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama +15 v. Southern Miss | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 33 h 32 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on South Alabama +15 -110 All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models. |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers -7 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 149 h 10 m | Show |
5* NFL - Packers/49ers NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on 49ers -7 -109 I love the value here with the 49ers at home in the NFC Championship Game. As much respect as I have for Aaron Rodgers, San Francisco is simply better on both sides of the ball and I just don't see Green Bay being able to keep this close on the road. These two teams played in the regular-season at San Francisco and the 49ers led 23-0 at the half and would go on to win 37-8 with a 339 to 188 edge in total yards. SF not only limited Aaron Jones to just 38 yards on 13 attempts (2.9 yards/carry), they held Rodgers to mere 104 passing yards and sacked him 5 times. When healthy this 49ers defense has been the best in the league and with the returns of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford in the Divisional Round, they are back to near full strength. When these two have been on the field there's just not a lot teams can do. I'm sure Green Bay will make some adjustments, but I don't think there's anything they can do to make up 25-points. I think it would take a near perfect game just for them to keep this within single digits and that's unlikely to happen. Take San Francisco! |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 150 h 57 m | Show |
5* NFL Divisional Round PLAY OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -9½ -110 I got no problem laying the big number with Kansas City on Sunday at home against the Texans. I think a lot of people will be drawn to Houston here, simply because Houston won at Kansas City earlier this season. Thing is, the Chiefs were up 17-3 in that game and this is really a different team than when they met back in Week 6. Most notably on the defensive side of the ball. Another common thought process for people is that Andy Reid is not a good coach in big games and while he's had his fair share of failures in the playoffs, you simply don't bet against him when he's got two weeks to prepare for an opponent. He's 18-3 ATS off a bye in the regular-season and 4-1 ATS off a bye in the playoffs. I think this Chiefs offense has been holding back a lot of things for the playoffs and this Texans defense is one they can exploit. Houston finished with the 29th ranked pass defense, giving up 267.3 ypg. Mahomes will have a field day and that much improved Chiefs defense will do their part behind an electric home crowd. Take Kansas City! |
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01-11-20 | Titans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 91 h 20 m | Show |
5* NFL - VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Titans +10 -110 I love the value here with Tennessee as a double-digit dog against the Ravens. The betting public can't get enough of Lamar Jackson and Baltimore right now and I think the number here has been inflated to the point that this is a no-brainer on the Titans. Tennessee might have made it in as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, but this team likely would have won the AFC South had they started the season with Ryan Tannehill and not Marcus Mariota. Everyone likes to focus on what Derrick Henry is doing and it's hard to not get caught up that, but Tannehill has been outstanding for the Titans. No question the Patriots offense was broken, but New England's defense is the real deal and they had no answer for the 1-2 punch of Henry and Tannehill. As good as Baltimore was against the run, there's just no slowing down Henry. I think they are going to be able to shorten up the game and most importantly keep Jackson and that Ravens offense off the field. On the flip side of this, I think Tennessee has the defense to at least slow down Lamar Jackson and that high-powered Ravens run game. I think in doing so they can get Baltimore to press a little and really make this thing interesting. Give me the Titans +10! |
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01-04-20 | Tulane -6.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 581 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Tulane/S Miss ARMED FORCES BOWL Top Play on Tulane -6½ -110 Easy play here on Tulane in Saturday's early bowl action against Southern Miss in the Armed Forces bow. While the Green Wave ended up finishing the season with a mere 6-6 record, it was more a result of the brutal schedule they had to navigate. Tulane's 6 losses were against Auburn, Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF and SMU. Four of which won 10 or more games. No disrespect to Southern Miss, but I just think they are outclassed here. Despite the tough schedule, Tulane still managed to finish 24th in the country in total offense at 456.8 ypg. They were also a respectable 55th in total defense. Golden Eagles are a very pass-happy team, which is evident by the fact that they finished 118th in rushing. Tulane on the other hand is a ball control team that ranked 11th in rushing at 251.4 ypg. I think the Green Wave are going to play keep away, which is going to wear down the Southern Miss defense and keep the Eagles offense out of sync. Take Tulane! |
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01-01-20 | Michigan +7.5 v. Alabama | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 511 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAF -Alabama/Michigan New Year's BOWL OF THE YEAR on Michigan +7½ -110 I love the Wolverines getting a touchdown and the hook against Alabama in the Citrus Bowl. While both teams ended the year with losses to their biggest rival, the Crimson Tide's was a lot more costly. Alabama's crushing 45-48 loss to Auburn knocked them out of the playoff race and for the first time since the playoff format was introduced they are not one of the 4 teams participating. I just think that makes this a really tough spot for Alabama to show up and it's not like we haven't seen this before when the Crimson Tide missed out on the BCS with a late loss and didn't show up in their bowl. On top of a lack of motivation, the Crimson Tide have a number of guys sitting out and are really decimated on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan had hopes of making the playoff, but those were put to rest a long time ago and I think they will have no problem here getting up for a shot at Alabama. Michigan's defense won't have to worry about facing Tua, which is a big plus, but more than anything I think a Wolverines offense that got better and better as the season went on will be able to do more than enough to keep this close and maybe even win outright. Take Michigan! |
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma +14 v. LSU | Top | 28-63 | Loss | -110 | 418 h 57 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Oklahoma/LSU Playoffs PLAY OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma +14 -110 I absolutely love the value here with the Sooners at this price. The hype around this LSU team has gotten out of control and the books have drastically inflated this line knowing the public is going to pound the Tigers no matter the number. I'm not going to say Oklahoma is going to win this game, but I'm extremely confident they keep it within two touchdowns. Sooners have more than shown they can compete on this stage the last two years. Last season they fell 45-34 to Alabama as a similarly priced 13 point dog. The year before they should have beat Georgia, but blew a big lead and wound up losing in 2OT. Oklahoma's offense might not be as potent as it was the last two years behind a couple of Heisman winners, but the defense is vastly improved. Also, as good as Joe Burrow and the LSU offense is, the defense can be had. They allowed 38 to Texas, 28 to Florida, 41 to Alabama and 37 to Ole Miss. I fully expect them to struggle with Lincoln Riley's offense and a turnover here or there by the Sooners defense and this could get real interesting. Take Oklahoma! |
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7 | Top | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 370 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Miami/La Tech INDEPENDENCE BOWL Top Play on Louisiana Tech +7 -110 Easy play here on the Bulldogs catching a touchdown against Miami in the Independence Bowl. I just don't feel Miami is the least bit interested in playing in this game, especially with how they closed out the season with back-to-back losses to FIU and Duke. Given the talent that the Hurricanes have, there's zero excuse for them losing either one of those games other than they just don't care about finishing the season strong. I just don't think Miami flipped a switch once the regular-season was over and started putting everything they had into beating LA Tech. There's no incentive for the Hurricanes to win this game. The same can't be said for the Bulldogs. Any time a small conference gets a shot at a Power 5, especially a storied program like Miami, they really get up for the game. That alone is enough reason to take the points with Louisiana Tech, but there's even more reason to like the Bulldogs. The game will be played in Shreveport, Louisiana, which is roughly an hour drive from their campus in Ruston. It's going to feel like a home game for the Bulldogs. You also have to take into account just how good La Tech head coach Skip Holtz has been at getting his team prepared and motivated for bowl play. Since he took over with the program, they have gone 5-0 in bowl games and he's 7-3 in his career as a head coach. I would not be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Take Louisiana Tech! |
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12-23-19 | Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - UCF/Marshall GASPARILLA BOWL Top Play on Marshall +17½ -110 This is just too good a price to pass up with the Thundering Herd in Monday's matchup with UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl. Marshall has thrived in bowl games under head coach Doc Holiday. They have yet to lose since Holiday took over with a perfect 6-0 mark and come in having covered 5 straight bowl games. UCF had another fantastic season and are without a doubt the more talented team, but bowl games is all about motivation and I just wonder how much the Knights really want to be here. UCF was playing in the Fiesta Bowl last year and the Peach Bowl the year before that. They got nothing to prove here against a team they are favored to beat by more than two touchdowns. Marshall has the 43rd ranked defense (362.1 ypg) and 42nd in points allowed (23.1 ppg). With the extra time to prepare, I think they can slow down this UCF offense. At the same time, the Knights are vulnerable defensively against the run and the Herd averaged a healthy 195.7 rushing ypg (36th). This is just too many points. Take Marshall! |
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles +3 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
5* NFL - Eagles/Cowboys NFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Eagles +3 -115 I absolutely love the Eagles as a home dog against the Cowboys. I get Dallas has owned Philly of late and absolutely destroyed them 37-10 at home earlier this season, but there's just no way the Cowboys should be a road favorite with how they have been playing. Dallas comes off an impressive 44-21 win at home against the Rams, but I think some of that was LA suffering a bit of a letdown off their big win over the Seahawks and a huge game against division rival San Francisco on deck. Prior to that the Cowboys had lost 3 straight and I expect them to go right back to their losing ways. A big thing here is Dallas is going to have to try to win on the road with a less than 100% Dak Prescott under center. Prescott barely practiced at all this week as he's dealing with both a sore shoulder and a injury on one of his fingers on his throwing hand. Note that while the Eagles defense has struggled some of late, they have continued to be really good against the run. Philadelphia has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 101 or fewer rushing yards and come in ranked 3rd against the run, allowing 90.4 ypg. With Prescott likely not at his best, it could be a real struggle here for the Cowboys offense. Also a great system in play favoring a fade of Dallas. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are off an upset win by 14 or more as a home dog are just 7-29 (19%) ATS since 1983 if the game is after the 1st month of the season. Take Philadelphia! |
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12-21-19 | Washington v. Boise State +3.5 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -109 | 253 h 13 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Wash/Boise St LAS VEGAS BOWL Top Play on Boise State +3½ -109 The Broncos are definitely worth a look here catching more than a field goal against the Huskies. There's a lot of talk about this being the last game for Chris Petersen with Washington and how they are going to play their hearts out for him because of that. I just don't that I buy that. If I was a Huskies player I would be a little ticked off that Petersen is walking away. The other big thing is this was not a great Washington team this year. One that lost at home to Cal and Colorado on the road. This is also a far cry from the kind of bowl that the Huskies are accustomed to. The last 3 years they have played in the Peach, Fiesta and Rose bowls. You also got some of their best players sitting out, which I think speaks volumes to how little this game really means to them. Left tackle Trey Adams and tight end Hunter Bryant are both skipping to prepare for the draft. Lastly, this is a Huskies offense that struggled to score and will be facing a really good Boise State defense. The Broncos ranked 35th in total defense (347.5 ypg) and 24th in scoring (20.6 ppg). They are also really good at stopping the run, ranking 19th in the country allowing 113.1 ypg. Broncos are also 10-3 SU in their last 13 vs a team from the Pac-12. Simply put, the wrong team is favored. Take Boise State! |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State -6.5 | Top | 51-41 | Loss | -110 | 180 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Utah St/Kent St FRISCO BOWL Top Play on Utah State -6½ -110 Easy play here for me on the Aggies. I don't get the line move at all as I thought the books had it priced right when they opened Utah State at -8.5. There's simply too much value here now with them under the key number of 7. I just think Jordan Love announcing he was leaving early to go pro and then some key guys getting accused of smoking pot had people leaning Kent State in this game. Thing is, Love is playing and those allegations appear to be false, at least from what head coach Gary Anderson is saying. Love is going to want to show out here to build up his draft stock. I also think the Utah State players will be motivated that much more after hearing the coach had their back. Love should have a field day in this one, as the Golden Flashes are awful defensively. They give up 471.7 ypg and allow 34.6 ppg away from home. They also are allowing opposing QB's to complete 69% of their attempts for 249 ypg and 8.4 yards/ pass attempt. Also, Kent State went 6-6 and their only decent win was against Buffalo and they trailed 27-6 in the 4th quarter of a crazy 30-27 win. Golden Flashes are a great story as they had quite the turnaround, but they are outclassed in this one. Take Utah State! |
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12-15-19 | Vikings v. Chargers +3 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -120 | 106 h 49 m | Show |
5* NFL - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Chargers +3 -120 I absolutely love the value here with the Chargers as a home dog against the Vikings. LA might be just 5-8 on the season, but there's no denying the talent the Chargers have on both sides of the ball. As glim as their playoff hopes might be, this is a team that will continue to fight until they are officially out of it. Los Angeles snapped a 3-game skid last week with a 45-10 throttling of the Jaguars as a mere 3.5-point favorite. Chargers are also a team that could easily be sitting here with 10 wins had they caught a few more breaks. All 8 of LA's losses have come by 7-points or less with 4 of those by a field goal or fewer. Vikings are sitting at 9-4, but are just 2-3 on the road. This is a team that lost away from home to the Chiefs when Mahomes was sidelined, which I think speaks volumes to just how much more vulnerable they are away from home. Last week Minnesota beat the Lions at home, but failed to cover as 13.5-point favorite. That's worth noting, as the Vikings are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 on the road off a win where they failed to cover as a favorite. Chargers are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Take Los Angeles! |
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12-14-19 | Army v. Navy -10 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 80 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Army/Navy NO LIMIT Top Play on Navy -10 -110 I got no problem laying double-digits with the Midshipmen in Saturday's huge rivalry game with Army. Some might think Navy will be looking ahead to their bowl, while Army is going to treat this like it's their bowl game. Sure the Black Knights are going to come to play, but don't think for a second that the Midshipmen aren't 100% focused on this game. A big reason for that is they come in having lost 3 straight in the series after they had rattled off 14 wins in a row over Army. A big reason for the Black Knights recent success is they for the first time in a long time had the better talent on the field. This year Army has underperformed big time and finished just 5-7, despite a schedule that had many calling for at least 8 wins. Navy has played the much tougher schedule and are 9-2. Midshipmen are the better team on both side of the ball and I just think they come out with a chip on their shoulder Saturday and win here by at least 14. Army is just 1-9 ATS last 10 as a neutral field dog of 7.5 to 14 points and have lost in this spot by an average score of 35 to 10. Take Navy! |
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12-12-19 | Jets +15 v. Ravens | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 22 m | Show |
5* NFL - Jets/Ravens TNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +15 -110 I really like the value here with New York getting more than two touchdown against the Ravens. Baltimore has quickly become one of the biggest public plays in the league and with this being a prime time game the books have really inflated this one. The Jets might be out of the playoff picture, but they have continued to play hard and actually come in having won 4 of their last 5 games. This is a really good opportunity for New York to see just how far they come against one of the leagues best teams. I fully expect the Jets to give it their all in this one. It's not that I don't think Baltimore won't come to play, but I do think this is a tricky spot for the Ravens given their recent stretch of high-profile games. Lamar Jackson is going to play despite a quad injury, but  I don't think we see the same MVP type performance that we have go accustomed to. I can't imagine there will be a lot of designed runs for Jackson and as soon as Baltimore gets a comfortable lead they are going to look to just run the ball and get this game in the books. Another key here is the Jets defense and how it matches up with the Ravens high-powered run game. New York is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, as they come in No. 2 in the league, giving up just 78.8 ypg. I think they will be able to slow down Baltimore enough to keep this game close. Take New York! |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
5* NFL - NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR on Falcons -3 -125 I love the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal at home against the Panthers. I know a lot of times teams tend to respond with a big effort after their head coach gets canned, but I don't think there's a lot of fight left in this Carolina team. For a second straight year the Panthers have fell apart after a strong start. Last year the Panthers started out 6-2 only to lose 7 straight and end up finishing 7-9. This year they jumped out to a 4-2 record and are now 5-7 and are riding a 4-game losing streak. The most recent being an inexcusable home loss to the Redskins. Falcons might be just 3-9, but they have looked like a much better team over the last month and they absolutely destroyed Carolina on the road a few weeks back 29-3 as a 4.5-point dog. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS at home against the Panthers with Matt Ryan at QB. Panthers are 0-6 ATS last 6 in the 2nd half of the season vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half in their last 7 vs a team that's giving up 350+ yards/game. Take Atlanta! |
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Georgia/LSU SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia +7½ -110 I love the value here with Georgia keeping this within a touchdown against LSU in the SEC Championship Game. LSU has been the talk of college football this year and it's only a matter of time before Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow is named this year's Heisman winner. I just think with how the public is pounding LSU right now, it's resulted in too good a price to pass up with Georgia. The biggest thing that I think people are overlooking in this game is Georgia's defense and part of that is the public just doesn't think this LSU offense can be stopped. The Bulldogs defense was already going to be fired up for this game and I think all the Burrow talk will have them playing with a massive chip on their shoulder. Keep in mind Georgia hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any game this season and are excellent against both the run and the pass. Ed Orgeron has proven he's more than just a motivator, but I still give the coaching edge to Georgia's Kirby Smart. People were saying the same things about Georgia the last two years when they met up with Alabama in the national title game in 2017 and in last year's SEC title game. They lost both of those games, but should have won both meetings. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are outgaining teams by 125 or more total yards and off a game where they gained 6.75 or more yards/play are 60-28 (68%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. At the same time, neutral field underdogs that are outrushing opponents by 100 yards/game are 36-11 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Georgia! |
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12-01-19 | Bucs -1.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 28-11 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bucs -1½ -110 I love the value here with the Bucs at basically a pick'em on the road against the Jaguars. It's pretty clear that Jacksonville has thrown in the towel on this season with the effort they have given in their last 3 games in blowout losses to the Texans (3-26), Colts (13-33) and Titans (20-42). The defense has been a huge disappointment and it really has went bad since they traded away Ramsey. It's not going to get any better on that side of the ball with the injuries the Jags are dealing with. safety Ronnie Harrison is out and linebacker Myles Jack isn't expected to play. On top of that they are facing a potent Bucs offense that is as good as any team when they don't turn it over. Bucs put up 35 last week at Atlanta and are 23-10 in their last 33 road games after putting up 30 or more points in their last game. Jags are 10-22 ATS last 32 at home after losing 3 of 4 and just 4-13 ATS last 2 seasons after the first month of the season. Take Tampa Bay! |
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11-30-19 | Indiana v. Purdue +7 | Top | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 91 h 50 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Purdue +7 -115 I love the value here with the Boilermakers catching a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. I think the fact that Purdue is sitting at 4-7 and can't get to a bowl has people thinking they won't show up. I don't think that will be the case at all. If anything it just continues a run here of the Boilermakers being undervalued, as they have covered 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. Indiana's already got 7-wins, so they are just playing to get to a slightly better bowl, but I also think they could be out of gas here after playing their last two games against big time opponents in Penn State and Michigan. Hoosiers defense struggled against both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines. Road teams who are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg are just 45-87 (34%) ATS after allowing 31 or more in 2 straight over the last 10 seasons. Boilermakers are also a dominant 13-4 ATS last 17 as an underdog. Take Purdue! |
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11-29-19 | Iowa -4.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -109 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -4½ -109 I cashed in on Nebraska last week at Maryland and the Cornhuskers didn't disappoint, as they took out a season worth of frustration in a 54-7 victory over the Terps. However, that win doesn't change the outlook on this Nebraska team and I'll gladly back a much better Iowa team laying less than a touchdown on Friday. Hawkeyes have owned the Cornhuskers of late with 4 straight wins against their rivals. I'm confident they make it 5 in a row, as I think the conditions for this game will heavily favor Iowa. It's going to be miserable with rain expected throughout. That's going to allow the Hawkeyes to focus that much more on a one-dimensional Nebraska offense. As for the Cornhuskers defense, don't be fooled by their big effort against Maryland. Prior to holding the Terps to a mere 7-points they had allowed 30+ in 4 straight games and even Maryland was able to run for 149 against them. Iowa should control both sides of the ball and win here easily. Hawkeyes are 20-7 ATS last 27 as a road favorite of 7 or less, while the Cornhuskers are a mere 4-15 ATS last 19 at home and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a home dog. |
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11-28-19 | Bears -3 v. Lions | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
5* NFL - Bears/Lions NFC North PLAY OF THE YEAR on Bears -3 +100 I love the value here with Chicago laying just a field goal at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. As ugly as it's been for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, this is just too good a price to pass up. The Lions are on a free fall having lost 7 of 8. When you lose to Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins you know it's not good. Matthew Stafford is still a no go for Detroit and while Jeff Driskel will play, he's going to be at less than 100% after tweaking his hamstring against the Lions. You take away his mobility and you really make it tough on him against an elite Bears defense. I don't know that Trubisky can be saved from what we have seen, but he is coming off one of his better games against the Giants and did throw 3 touchdowns against this Detroit defense back in Week 10. One thing the Bears have done well is cover the number against their NFC North counterparts. Chicago is 9-1 ATS last 10 games vs division opponents. They have also covered 11 of their last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Detroit is just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home, 2-6 ATS last 8 vs a division foe and 0-6 ATS last 6 overall. Take Chicago! |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 23 m | Show |
5* NFL - Ravens/Rams MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Rams +3½ -110 I love the value here with the Rams getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the talk of the NFL right now and I think it has them way overvalued in this one. This not an easy spot for the Ravens going out west for a prime time game. Just look at how bad GB played in this spot last night against the 49ers. I know the Rams haven't been the team we thought we would see this year, but I think there's been a big overreaction with them. LA is not nearly as bad as perceived. I would have them favored, at worst a pick'em here. Rams offense hasn't been near the explosive unit as the last two years, but they have been banged up offensively and played a bunch of decent road teams. It's also no secret that Jared Goff is a different QB at home than on the road. He's got his full compliment of weapons at his disposal and the Ravens don't offer that great of a pass rush and if the gets time he can exploit you. Ravens are just 6-17 ATS last 23 on the road off a win by 21 or more. Rams are also a strong 11-4 ATS last 15 games, so it's clearly not all that bad in LA. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-23-19 | Syracuse v. Louisville -9 | Top | 34-56 | Win | 100 | 101 h 55 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Louisville -9 -110 Easy play for me on the Cardinals laying single-digits at home against the Orange. I just think we are getting a great price with Louisville due the fact that Syracuse finally showed some life in last week's 49-6 win as a 10.5-point road dog at Duke. That would be great if the Blue Devils were playing well, but Duke is on a free fall. Blue Devils have been outgained now by 100+ yards in 3 straight and have lost the yardage battle in 6 straight. Even though they won by a whopping 43-points, Syracuse only outgained the Blue Devils by 116. The only other two teams the Orange have won the yardage battle against all season are Holy Cross and Liberty. This is a team that got outgained by 250 yards to Maryland and 243 a couple weeks ago against BC. Louisville has one of the best offenses people don't know about. They are averaging 32.3 ppg and 438 ypg. What's impressive is it's come against opponents who on average are allowing just 25.1 ppg and 377 ypg. They should score at will here and while the defense isn't great, I think they easily win by two touchdowns. Orange are 2-11 ATS last 13 off an upset win by 14 or more points and have lost in this spot by an average of 20 ppg. Take Louisville! |
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11-19-19 | Ohio -20 v. Bowling Green | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Ohio/BG MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ohio -20 -110 I like the Bobcats to cruise to a easy win and cover at Bowling Green Tuesday night. Ohio may have had their MAC title hopes crushed with back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Miami (OH) and Western Michigan, but there's still a ton to play for in these last two games, as the Bobcats need to win out to make a bowl. Ohio may have just 1 more win on the resume than the Falcons, but the talent gap between these two is really noticeable. While the Bobcats are just 3-3 in MAC play, they are outscoring teams by 2 ppg and outgaining them by 23.6 ypg. Bowling Green is getting outscored by 16.3 ppg and 141.4 ypg in MAC play. The biggest thing for me here is I just don't see the Falcons defense being able to keep the Bobcats from putting up a huge number. Ohio averages 200 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry on the ground. They will be facing a BG defense that gives up 212 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry. Also, Falcons have nothing left to play for after last week's 44-3 loss to Miami (OH), as the best they can finish is 5-7. BG is also just 3-11 ATS last 14 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 1-7 ATS as a dog of any number this season. Take Ohio! |
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11-17-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Colts | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -120 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120 Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye. Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs. Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going. Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville! |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma -10 v. Baylor | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -10 -110 There's plenty of people talking about how Baylor deserves to be ranked higher than No. 12 with their perfect record, but I'm with the playoff committee. I just don't think the Bears are anywhere close to as good as their record and I think it could get ugly on Saturday in Waco. Oklahoma is hands down the most talented team in the Big 12. They had a slip up at Kansas State, but I think more of that was them just not giving the Wildcats the respect they deserve. They won't make that mistake against the Bears. The biggest thing for more me is I don't think Baylor's defense can contain Jalen Hurts and this high-powered Oklahoma offense. That's a big problem, as I don't think the Bears have the goods offensively to go keep this close if the Sooners put 30+ on the board. Bears are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when listed as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma has failed to cover their last two in large part because of turnovers. They posted a -2 turnover margin in both ATS losses to K-State and Iowa State. Sooners are 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have posted back-to-back games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Oklahoma! |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 35 h 24 m | Show |
5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119 The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line. Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams. Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland! |
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11-09-19 | Nevada +17.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Nevada +17½ -105 Love this spot and the price we are getting with the Wolf Pack. This is just too many points for San Diego State to be laying with how much they struggle to score. Aztecs are only averaging 21.7 ppg on the season and it actually gets worse when they play at home, where they are scoring just 16.3 ppg. Nevada's defense isn't great, but they did just hold New Mexico to a mere 10-points last week, so they can keep SDST in check. Last time out the Aztecs were a 11.5-point favorite at home to UNLV and barely won 20-17. San Diego State is 3-11 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite. Take Nevada! |
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11-09-19 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 47 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3 -110 Love the Mountaineers as a home dog this Saturday against the Red Raiders. This couldn't be a better time to buy low on West Virginia, who comes in having lost 4 straight. Even though the Mountaineers easily covered as a 17.5-point home dog last time out at Baylor, most won't be able to get past the fact that they have scored exactly 14 points in each of their last 3 games. The thing you have to keep in mind with the recent slide is the fact that it's come against arguably the four best teams in the Big 12 in Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor. Texas Tech is definitely a team they can beat and there's plenty of motivation still for West Virginia, as they need to win 3 of their last 4 to make a bowl. Another thing is the Red Raiders should not be favored on the road against any team in the Big 12. Texas Tech is 0-4 on the road this season, where they are giving up 38.2 ppg and 548.2 ypg. Also, Red Raiders have lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is 0-8 ATS as a head coach when his team comes in having lost 4/5 of their last 6. Take West Virginia! |
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11-08-19 | Washington -9.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 70 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -9½ -110 I absolutely love the Huskies here in what I feel is a huge bounce back spot following a couple of tough losses against two of the Pac-12's best in Oregon and Utah. I get crazy things can happen in weekday games and Corvallis is not an easy place to play. However, I just think the talent gap here is too much for the Beavers to keep this to single-digits. Last time Washington went on the road they were a slim 6-point favorite at Arizona and they annihilated the Wildcats 51-27. As for Oregon State, not question they are improved, but they still haven't been anyone worth a lick. Last time they hosted a decent team was Utah in the middle of October. Beavers were a mere 14-point dog and got annihilated 52-7. I just don't think it's asking a lot for Washington to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. Oregon State is just 2-7 ATS last 9 at home and Huskies are a dominant 14-5 ATS last 19 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Washington! |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
5* NFL - Cowboys/Giants MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +7 -115 I love the value here with New York getting a TD at home against the Cowboys. No question this line is inflated in favor of Dallas, as they are a massive public team and the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league right now at 2-6. Dallas also getting a ton due to the fact that they went into their bye off a dominating 37-10 win at home over the Eagles and due to the fact they whooped the Giants at home 35-17 in Week 1. Thing is that was with Eli Manning at quarterback and without their top wide out Golden Tate. Daniel Jones is definitely an upgrade of Eli and I think this offense will be able to do enough to cover this spread. Cowboys are just 6-16 ATS last 22 road game soff a home win by 21 or more points and the Giants are a dominant 17-3 ATS last 20 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take New York! |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
5* NFL- Pats/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ravens +3½ -115 I know the Patriots have looked unbeatable threw the first half of the season, but you just can't ignore how easy the schedule has been. Their last 7 games have come against the Browns, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo is the only one of those teams with a winning record. Note that while they beat the Bills 16-10, they should have probably lost. Buffalo had a 375 to 224 edge in total yards and 23 first downs to the Pats 11. This Ravens team is the best that NE will have seen all season. Lamar Jackson's ability to make plays with his legs is the one thing you can't defend for and I think we see the NE defense struggle for the first time this season. Also, big edge playing at home in a prime time game like this. Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg are just 18-52 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more. Take Baltimore! |
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11-02-19 | UAB +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 7-30 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on UAB +10½ -110 As bad as it's been for the Volunteers this year, I think the public is going to be tempted to take Tennessee laying less than two touchdowns against a team from C-USA, especially considering the Vols have won 2 of their last 3, including a 41-21 blowout win over South Carolina last time out. That tells me the books really like UAB's chances to cover and I agree. The Blazers are extremely well coached under Bill Clark, who has a 31-15 record in 3+ seasons in Birmingham. Vols are also just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games and 2-7 ATS last 9 off a win. Great system in play favoring a fade of Tennessee. Home teams that have won 2 of their last 3 games and still own a winning percentage between 25% to 40% are just 8-34 (19%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take UAB! |
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10-31-19 | 49ers -10 v. Cardinals | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
5* NFL - 49ers/Cardinals TNF ATS NO-BRAINER on 49ers -10 -109 Usually I wouldn't lay a big number like this on the road in a division matchup, but I just think the 49ers are going to win here easily. This San Francisco defensive front is unreal and are making it near impossible for opposing teams to throw on them. 49ers rank No. 1 in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 128.7 ypg. Arizona is down starting running back David Johnson and backup Chase Edmonds, which forced them to make a trade with the Dolphins for Kenyan Drake. I don't see the Cardinals being able to have the kind of success running the ball needed to keep this 49ers defense honest. Last week the Cardinals had just 40 rushing yards and 197 passing yards against a good Saints defense. 49ers should score into the 20's here and easily win this game by 14-plus points. Take San Francisco! |
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10-27-19 | Packers -4 v. Chiefs | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 13 m | Show |
5* NFL - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Packers -4 -105 No reason to overthink this one. This is too good a price to pass up with Green Bay given the circumstances. Kansas City will not have the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes and if you watched the offense last week with Matt Moore after Mahomes went down, it's night and day. I get we are seeing almost a 7-point swing with Mahomes out, but I feel he's worth more than that. It's also not just Mahomes that the Chiefs are missing. They are unlikely to have star defensive tackle Chris Jones, corner Kendall Fuller and edge rusher Frank Clark. I get the defense played well against the Broncos, but Denver's offense is a complete mess with how bad Flacco is playing. I don't see the Chiefs defense being able to slow down Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and I could see this getting out of hand early. It just feels like a throw away game for KC with Mahomes out. Take Green Bay! |
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10-26-19 | Utah State +4.5 v. Air Force | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -111 | 104 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Utah St/Air Force MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +4½ -111 I love the Aggies getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. Air Force's starting quarterback Donald Hammond is questionable to play and if he does suit up he might not be 100%. Regardless, I would have liked Utah State at this price. Utah State is 4-2 with their only two losses at Wake Forest and at LSU and they probably should have beat the Demon Deacons (lost 35-38). Aggies got one of my favorite 'Group of 5' quarterbacks in Jordan Love and he should torch this Air Force defense that is allowing opposing QB's to complete 64% or more. Last year Love threw for 356 yards and 2 scores against the Aggies. Utah State has covered 14 of their last 19 overall as the books just don't give them the credit they deserve. Air Force 0-6 ATS last 6 after covering 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS last 7 after outrushing two straight opponents by 125 or more yards. Take Utah State! |
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10-26-19 | Auburn v. LSU -10 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 49 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Auburn/LSU SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU -10 -107 This might seem like a big number for LSU to be laying against a Auburn team that is 6-1 both SU and ATS, but I just think LSU is a clear step above Auburn. Everyone was calling for LSU to have a letdown last week against Mississippi State and they cruised to a 36-13 win. Auburn gets a lot of love for beating Oregon and Texas A&M, but they also lost by 9 at Florida and LSU beat the Gators by 14. I just don't think the Auburn can go score for score with LSU and this will get ugly once Auburn is forced to throw. Home favorites in games involving two dominant teams that are outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yards/play are 70-32 (69%) ATS if coming off 3 straight games where the gained 6.35 or more yards/play. Also a strong system in favor of fading Auburn. Teams like Auburn that have beat the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 5 games and have won 80% or more of their games are a mere 31-70 (31%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take LSU! |
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10-24-19 | SMU -13.5 v. Houston | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -109 | 78 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - SMU/Houston C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH on SMU -13½ -109 Laying almost two touchdowns on the road in a weekday game isn't thought of as a great play. I don't care. I think SMU is going to absolutely lay it on the Cougars tonight. Houston had a spirited effort in the first game after King decided to take a healthy red-shirt because his team wasn't good enough, but that was against a North Texas team that has not lived up to expectations. They then were beat badly at Cincinnati and barely won on the road against UCONN. As for the Mustangs, they haven't lost a game behind their star transfer QB Shane Buechele, who ranks in the Top 10 in both yards (2,122) and TD passes (18). Books have not been able to set the number high enough, as SMU is 6-1 ATS. They are going to score at will against this Houston defense and I don't see the Cougars being able to keep pace. Take SMU! |
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10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 22 m | Show |
5* NFL - Saints/Bears NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bears -3 -120 It's been an impressive run for New Orleans behind Teddy Bridgewater while Drew Brees recovers from a thumb injury, but I don't see the Saints winning in Chicago on Sunday. While they have been winning games, it's not because Bridgewater is lighting up defenses. He certainly isn't going to light up this Bears defense, which is No. 6 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Making matters even worse, New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara. Bears will be getting Trubisky back from injury and I think we are going to see a little more offense out of Chicago out of the bye week. Bears are a lot closer to being 5-0 than they get credit for. They are 7-0-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 12-4 ATS last 16 vs other NFC teams. Take Chicago! |
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10-19-19 | Boise State -7 v. BYU | Top | 25-28 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Boise State -7 -109 I'll gladly lay the touchdown with Boise State on the road against the Cougars. I'm not really sure why this BYU team gets so much love. The schedule has been brutal, there's no denying that. However, their two wins are against Tenn and USC by 3-points a piece. This team lost by 26 at home to Washington, lost at Toledo and they just fell at South Florida. That loss to USF is bad. The Bulls were without starting QB Blake Barnett (had just 72 yards passing). That's the same USF team that lost 49-0 to Wisconsin and somehow managed to lose to an awful Georgia Tech team. I get that Boise State's QB might not play, but the backup has been solid. More than anything, I don't think the Broncos need much from their QB to win here by double-digits. Take Boise State! |
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10-19-19 | New Mexico v. Wyoming -17.5 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Mountain West PLAY OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -17½ -103 Love the Cowboys to cover the number at home against the Lobos. New Mexico lost by 52 on the road to Notre Dame and just lost by 14 at home to a bad Colorado State team. They got no business keeping this close. Cowboys will be motivated off a tough a loss at SDSU and the game before they took out UNLV at home 53-17. Last year Wyoming destroyed the Lobos 31-3 and the year before it was 42-3. Expect more of the same on Saturday. Cowboys are 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a bad team that's won between 25% and 40% of their games the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot by 19.5 ppg. Take Wyoming! |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama v. Troy -14.5 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Early Week Day PLAY OF THE MONTH on Troy -14½ -110 I think the books made a big mistake not making Troy a much bigger favorite here. There's no denying that this year's Trojans team isn't as good as the one that won 10-games last year. That and the fact that Troy is just 1-4 ATS has people considering South Alabama at this price. It's not like The Trojans have been losing to bad teams and they are a couple close losses away from being 4-1 with their only loss on the road to Missouri. They are still way more talented than South Alabama and I just don't see the Jaguars pathetic excuse for an offense being able to keep pace. South Alabama has not eclipsed 17 points in any of their last 4 games and have played some bad defenses in this stretch. The most they have scored all season against a FBS opponent is 21 against Nebraska and they had a 13-yard TD drive in that game. The Trojans has scored 35+ in every game not against a Power 5 opponent. Take Troy! |
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10-12-19 | Maryland v. Purdue +3.5 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +3½ -105 I love Purdue getting a field goal and the hook at home against Maryland. No way should the Terps be favored on the road here. I get that Purdue is down their starting QB and star wide out Rondale Moore, but it's not like Maryland isn't down a few key players. Terps will be without their starting QB in Josh Jackson and will once again turn to Tyrrell Pigrome. Sure Pigrome has experienced, but there's a reason he's been a backup for four years. It's pretty big downgrade here from Jackson. The fact that Maryland is favored with him as the starter will only serve as more motivation for Jeff Brohm's team. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home dog. Maryland comes in off a 48-7 blowout win over Rutgers. Based on what we have seen from the Scarlet Knights this season, I'm not sure why everyone is so excited about that win. This is still the same team that lost 20-17 on the road to Temple and managed just 128 total yards in a 59-0 loss at home to Penn State.  Keep in mind Maryland followed a 63-20 blowout win over Syracuse with that upset loss at Temple and are just 4-15 ATS in their last 21 off a conference win by 21 or more points. Take Purdue! |
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10-06-19 | Cardinals v. Bengals -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 12 m | Show |
5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bengals -3 -110 Cincinnati is worth a look here as a mere 3-point home favorite. Even though these are two bad teams, I see a lot of value with the Bengals only needing to win by a field goal. Cincinnati is 0-4, but they have also played a brutal schedule with 3 of their first 4 on the road. Two of those against 1-loss teams in the Seahawks and Bills, the other at Pittsburgh on MNF. The lone home game was against the 49ers, who are undefeated. Arizona is definitely not a team you want to be trusting on the road. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling. Cardinals have scored 20 or fewer in each of their last 3. They had 27 in the opener, but they were down 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Outside of a 10-minute window in that 4th quarter, the offense hasn't showed us anything. I know the numbers aren't great for the Bengals defense, but they were more than solid in the two games against the Bills and Seahawks. They also should have won in Seattle week 1. I think they play well here. As for the offense, I think they score early and often in this one. Take Cincinnati! |
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10-06-19 | Bears -5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
5* NFL - Bears/Raiders Late Info ATS NO-BRAINER on Bears -5½ -110 This game is being played in London and I think even with Trubisky out for Chicago this is an ideal spot to fade the Raiders. Given how bad the Bears offense has looked and the Raiders off an impressive 31-24 win at Indy the public might be tempted to play Oakland. What they are going to overlook is this being the 3rd straight road game for the Raiders and just how hard this is for NFL teams. Not to mention we saw how much Oakland's offense struggled against a good Vikings defense a couple weeks ago. Chicago's defense looks like the best in the league. Bears are allowing 11.2 ppg, holding teams almost 8-points under their average. Raiders only average 19.7 ppg and give up 25.5 ppg. Look for Chase Daniel to get the Bears offense going in this one. Take Chicago! |
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10-05-19 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech +10.5 | Top | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 50 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Tech +10½ -110 Perfect opportunity to play into some overreactions and get a great number with the Red Raiders at home. No one wants anything to do with Texas Tech in this matchup. Red Raiders enter off back-to-back double-digit losses. First they fell 28-14 at Arizona and then returned from their bye with a 55-16 setback at Oklahoma. As for the Cowboys, they just won convincingly 26-13 at home over a ranked K-State team, improving to 4-1 on the year. Only loss a close defeat at Texas 36-30. Most will feel like 10 isn't enough for Tech to cover. Red Raiders are not as bad as people think. I think they show up with a max effort and will be a lot more potent in front of a rowdy home crowd with a ranked team visiting. Key to slowing to the Cowboys is not letting Chubba Hubbard get free. I think Tech's defense will be up to the task. If OK State doesn't bring their 'A' game, I could easily see the Red Raiders winning outright. Take Texas Tech! |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +10 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on South Alabama +10 -110 The public is all over Georgia Southern in this one, but yet we have seen the line keep dropping in favor of the Jaguars. I'm with the sharp money on this one, as I think we are getting great value with South Alabama as a double-digit home dog. Jaguars enter this game at 1-4, but it's been a pretty rough schedule. Of the 4 losses, 3 have come on the road against the likes of Nebraska, UAB and ULM. The other was a home game against Memphis. Georgia Southern is just 1-3 and were just beat badly at home by Lafayette last week, which really tells me this is not same caliber a Eagles team as the one that won 10-games last year. The Ragin' Cajuns outgained them 440 to 252 (lost by double-digits despite being +2 in turnover margin). Eagles are just 1-4 ATS last 5 overall, so the books are clearly overvaluing them of late. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take South Alabama! |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame -11 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 114 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -11 -110 I was really impressed with the Irish in last week's loss to Georgia. The public was all over the Bulldogs in that game. While Notre Dame covered, I don't feel they did enough to sway the public back to the point they want to lay double-digits with them. In fact, I see the public looking to grab the points with Virginia. Not only are the Cavaliers ranked No. 18 and 4-0, most will see this as a letdown game for Notre Dame. I don't. I think Virginia is getting a little too much respect. They beat Pitt by 16, but only outgained them by 53 and Pitt led 14-13 at the half. They trailed FSU 24-17 in the 4th quarter and fell behind 17-0 to Old Dominion (still trailed 17-14 going into the 4th quarter). I just don't think the Cavaliers offense is good enough to go into a hostile environment against a good Notre Dame defense and keep pace with Ian Book and the Irish offense. Irish are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home against a team with a winning road record. Chip Kelly will have this team ready to go off the tough loss. Take Notre Dame! |
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09-27-19 | Penn State v. Maryland +7 | Top | 59-0 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 20 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +7 -110 Love the value here with the Terps as a touchdown dog against the Nittany Lions. It's not that Penn State isn't a talented team, they are extremely young and I just don't feel like they are the 12th best team in the country. One of the more difficult thing for young/inexperienced teams is to play on the road in a hostile environment. That's where upsets happen and I think we could definitely see Maryland win this game outright. A lot of people were on the Terps after they crushed Syracuse, only to jump right off the ship after an upset loss at Temple. I wasn't surprised to see them stumble on the road against the Owls. The Terps were feeling themselves off that big win over a ranked team and the fact that they were a Top 25 team. I really like the skill players they got on the offensive side of the ball and former Va Tech quarterback, Joshua Jackson, looks really good in this offense. I think they are going to have a big day against a Penn State defense that isn't as good as the numbers. Nittany Lions have somehow only given up 23 points in their last 2 games, despite allowing more than 800 yards of offense. Take Maryland! |
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09-26-19 | Navy +11 v. Memphis | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 21 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +11 -110 Navy is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog against Memphis on Thursday Night. Midshipmen went just 3-9 last year and were a team not many people were talking about in 2019 with just 8 starters back. However, this should be a much improved team (service academies are use to not having a lot of guys back) on both sides of the ball. They have looked great in their two games so far this season. They beat Holy Cross 45-7 as a 21.5-point favorite and East Carolina 42-10 as a 7.5-point favorite. Books weren't close with the number posted in either of those games. I think it's the same thing here. Navy has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Memphis, including a 22-21 win as a 6.5-point dog last year. A lot of people are praising this Memphis defense cause it shutdown Ole Miss in the opener, but stopping the triple-option is not easy and all that running limits the number of possessions. Midshipmen are 18-5 ATS last 23 as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points. Memphis is just 8-21 in their last 29 off a double-digit road win, 5-15 ATS last 20 after outgaining 2 straight teams by 125 or more yards and 0-8 ATS last 8 after gaining 525+ yards in their last two. Take Navy! |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 40 m | Show |
5* NFL - Rams/Browns SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns +3½ -110 I really like Cleveland to cash in a win at home against the Rams, but you got to take the points to be safe. It took a couple of weeks, but we are finally starting to see the public back on Los Angeles. They won and covered as a small favorite at Carolina in Week 1 and blew out New Orleans 27-9 as a small home favorite in Week 2. I just don't think it's warranted. I don't know that Carolina is all we thought they would be. Newtown doesn't look like himself and they barely won that game. As for the victory over the Saints, they caught the ultimate break with Drew Brees going down to injury. This does not look like the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year, especially on the offensive side. Rams rank in the bottom half of the league at just 224.0 passing yards/game. Jared Goff is also a guy that historically plays much worse on the road. I think he's in for a long day here against Myles Garrett. He was a force against the Jets last week. You also have to play into the atmosphere here. It's going to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and I got a feeling this Browns team is going to play with a little more fight as an underdog. Take Cleveland! |
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09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Ohio -3 | Top | 45-25 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 24 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Small Conference PLAY OF THE YEAR on Ohio -3 -110 Absolutely love Ohio here as a small 3-point home favorite against the Ragin Cajun's. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Bobcats and sell high on Lafayette. Ohio didn't cover in their opener against Rhode Island, despite winning by 20+, and then lost back-to-back on the road against Pittsburgh and Marshall. Two games they were expected to lose, but nonetheless there's nothing to get you excited about with Ohio. Key here is that this is one of Frank Solich's better teams he's had at Ohio and a lot of people have them as the best team in the MAC this year. They are going to be chomping at the bit take the field at home, where they have are 1-0 this year and 48-13 over the previous 10 seasons (12-1 since 2017). As for Lafayette they covered against Mississippi State in the opener and followed that up with back-to-back blowout wins and covers at home against Liberty and Texas Southern. The close call against the Bulldogs looks less impressive after Miss St lost at home to K-State and that Liberty team they beat lost 24-0 to a bad Syracuse team. Ohio lost by just 2-points last week at Marshall and that's worth noting, as the Bobcats are 12-4 ATS under Solich off a loss by 3 or less. They have also covered 16 of their last 20 vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg (Lafayette +27.4 ppg). Take Ohio! |
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09-20-19 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech -9 | Top | 31-43 | Win | 100 | 94 h 5 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -9 -109 This is a no-brainer for me to lay single digits at home with Louisiana Tech against the FIU Panthers. Something just isn't right with this FIU team. The Panthers are a team that was suppose to be a contender in C-USA with 16 starters back from a 9-win team. I just feel like the books are being slow to adjust. They got embarrassed by Tulane 42-14 on the road in Week 1 and were a mere 3-point dog in that matchup. They then lost at home as a 7.5-point favorite to WKU. They finally get a win last week over New Hampshire, but only won 30-17 as a 13.5-point favorite. The offense has not looked great, especially the passing game. Starting quarterback James Morgan, who was great for them last year is dealing with an ankle injury, but it felt like he was already losing time to backup Kaylan Wiggins. The defense has also been sub-par, especially against run. I just don't see the Panthers being able to keep pace with J'Mar Smith and the Bulldogs offense. Smith has been playing at a high level. He had 331 yards and 2 scores against Texas, so it's hard to see FIU keeping in check. Panthers come in averaging 307 ypg. There have been only 6 times as the head coach of the Bulldogs that Skip Holz has faced a team that averages 310 or fewer yards. Holtz and the Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in this spot with an average margin of victory of 21.6 ppg. Take Louisiana Tech! |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets +3 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 37 m | Show |
5* NFL - Browns/Jets MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Jets +3 -110 I liked the Jets when the line first came out and while the Darnold news is not ideal, I still like New York to make a game of this at home on Monday Night Football. Jets still have Le'Veon Bell to keep the offense moving and this Browns defense is not as good as people think. They let Marcus Mariota threw for 250 yards and 3 scores and gave up over 120 yards on the ground. That same Titans offense managed just 242 total yards at home in a Week 2 loss to the Colts. I know Trevor Siemian has not been great as a starter, but a lot of those starts were on bad teams. I think he outperforms expectations in a big way here. Take New York! |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 26 m | Show |
5* NFL - AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Raiders +7½ -110 Love the value here with Oakland getting over a touchdown at home against the Chiefs. I really liked what I saw from the Raiders in their win over Denver on MNF in Week 1. This team is playing with a chip on their shoulder from all that AB drama. They are going to give everything they got to beat their rival in KC. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense looked great in Week 1, but the problem is the defense. Kansas City did a lot to try and get better on that side of the ball only to watch a rookie in Gardner Minshew complete 22 of 25 against them. Add in the loss of Tyreek Hill for that Chiefs offense and I think Oakland can make a game of this. Also this a really tough traveling spot for KC having to go from playing at Jacksonville in Week 1 to the complete other side of the country in California. Take the Raiders! |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +14.5 | Top | 40-21 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 49 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa +14½ -105 Absolutely love the value here with Tulsa as a two touchdown dog at home against the Cowboys. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of the Golden Hurricane to start out 2019. Tulsa kept it closer than just about everyone expected in a 28-7 loss at Michigan State in Week 1 as a 23.5-point dog. Instead of giving the Golden Hurricane's defense for going on the road and holding the Spartans to 28 points and just 303 total yards, they just wrote it off as Michigan State's offense being bad. That kinda doesn't work after watching the Spartans put up 51 points and 582 yards in a 34-point win at home against Western Michigan. Tulsa's defense wasn't spectacular at San Jose State last week, but that second straight game on the road is always tough, plus it was a huge sandwich spot. Teams that can keep Oklahoma State's offense from getting into a rhythm tend to have a lot of success against them. Should be a rowdy crowd, as this is also their home opener. Outright win is definitely a possibility. Take Tulsa! |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 40 m | Show |
5* NFL - Bucs/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers -6½ -109 I really like the Panthers to lay it on the Bucs tonight. While both teams are coming off a loss at home in Week 1, Carolina lost to the reigning NFC champs in the Rams, while Tampa Bay lost to the 49ers. The big thing the Bucs were hoping for when they hired Bruce Arians was his ability to get Jameis Winston to finally play up to his potential. That hope didn't last long, as Winston threw for fewer than 200 yards and had 3 interceptions (two pick sixes) at home against a 49ers defense that only had 2 picks all of last year. I don't think it's going to get any better for Winston against the Panthers. Carolina's defense played pretty well against the Rams in Week 1. They gave up 30 points, but did hold the Rams to just 349 yards and just 4.6 yards/play. No player is going to be more motivated to go against Winston than new Carolina defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who prior to this year had only played for Tampa. Bucs basically said he was washed up. Not only do I think McCoy shows out against his old team, but I like the entire Panthers defense to play inspired for their new teammate. Lastly, you have to factor in the huge advantage the home team has playing in these Thursday games on just 3-days of rest. Take Carolina! |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 133 h 33 m | Show |
5* NFL - Texans/Saints MNF HEAVY HITTER on Texans +7 -106 I absolutely love the the value here with Houston. The betting public loves Drew Brees and the Saints and will almost back them no matter what at home, especially in a prime time game like this. New Orleans is definitely a top tier team in the NFC, but no way should they be laying a touchdown in Week 1 to a very talented Texans team. It's almost like people forget how good Houston was last year. The Texans won the AFC South at 11-5 and yet were being picked by many to finish as low as 3rd in the division. DeShaun Watson had a big year that got overlooked with all the Mahomes/Goff hype. I know they just lost a great defensive player in Jadeveon Clowney, but in the process they made a huge upgrade on the offensive line by adding in Laremy Tunsil. If they can get better play up front, look out. Watson threw for over 4,000 yards with a 26-9 TD-INT ratio, despite being sacked 62 times (most since 2006). The defense also still has an elite player in J.J. Watt, who is coming off a 16 sack season. It feels like forever since he's been this healthy coming into a season. I'm not saying they are going to stop Brees and the Saints, but I think they can do enough to keep this close and cash in a cover. Take Houston! |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 8 m | Show |
5* NFL - Pats/Steelers Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Steelers +6 -110 I love the points with Pittsburgh, as the Steelers head to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. New England is the only team that no matter what happens in the offseason, it's just assumed they are going to be good. I expect the Patriots to be a threat in the AFC, but at least for now Tom Brady doesn't have Gronk. I know his play had declined some in the last couple of years, but Brady's numbers were drastically better with him on the field. I could definitely see that offense struggling early and it's not uncommon for the Pats to not look their best in the first couple weeks of the season. Pittsburgh is a team that I think people are kinda sleeping on. The Steelers losing both Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown has a lot to do with that. However, they showed they didn't need Bell last year and after the last month or so, I think Pittsburgh has to be thrilled to not have that headache in Brown. I think the offense won't miss a beat with Big Ben under center and that defense has a lot of talented young players. Take Pittsburgh! |
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09-07-19 | Nevada +24.5 v. Oregon | Top | 6-77 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Vegas Undervalued DOG OF THE MONTH on Nevada +24½ -110 Even though the Ducks came up short in their Week 1 loss at Auburn, I think a lot of people were impressed with how well Oregon hung around with the Tigers. This is also a team that was getting a ton of hype preseason because of quarterback Justin Herbert. I believe it has the Ducks way overvalued here at home against Nevada. This far from an easy spot for Oregon, who still has to be licking their wounds from that meltdown against Auburn. The Ducks led 21-6 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter and gave up the game-winning TD with 9 seconds left on a 26-yard pass by a true freshmen. Nevada on the other hand comes in off a thrilling 34-31 win at home over Purdue. The Wolf Pack trailed 31-14 in the 2nd half. They tied it at 31-31 with less than a minute to play and won the game on a 56-yard field on the last play of the game. I don't think Nevada is capable of winning this game on the road, but I do think the Wolf Pack have the offensive fire-power to easily cover the number here. Take Nevada +24.5! |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State -10.5 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -106 | 83 h 58 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - 'Group of 5' Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Boise State -10½ -106 I like this Marshall team and could see them being a force in Conference USA this year, but I think Boise State is on a different level. I not only think the Broncos win at home Friday night over the Thundering Herd, I think they do so with ease. You never really know what you are going to get from a true freshman quarterback until they play in a game. I don't think there's many concerns lingering for Boise State's Hank Bachmeier. The true freshmen threw for 407 yards on 30 of 51 passing in Week 1 and did it on the road against a Power 5 opponent in FSU. Even more impressive is he guided his team back from a 31-13 deficit. Marshall only gave up 21.8 ppg and 339 ypg, but a lot of that is playing in C-USA. They gave up 37 points and 502 yards to NC State and 41 points and 454 yards to Va Tech. I think Boise will have no problem scoring 35+ here and I like the Broncos defense to keep Marshall to 20 or fewer, giving us plenty of breathing room to cash in a cover. Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after giving up 24 or more points in the 1st half of their last game and are 11-2 ATS last 13 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Boise State! |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -21.5 | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -115 | 152 h 8 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Houston/Oklahoma ATS HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma -21½ -115 I got no problem laying the points with Oklahoma. I think the betting public is going to be all over Houston given the hype around this team with Dana Holgorsen leaving West Virginia to take over. Holgorsen is known for his ability to get a lot out of the QB position and the Cougars have a good one in D'Eriq King. However, Houston is out-classed big time in this one. I get Baker Mayfield and Kylar Murray were big time talents, but their success is 100% a result of Lincoln Riley's brilliant offensive mind. No reason not to expect this offense to be potent with Jalen Hurts running the show. I also think Oklahoma's defense will be greatly improved under coordinator Alex Grinch. Houston on the other hand lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. Sooners are going to score at will and I just don't see Houston being able to keep pace. Take Oklahoma! |
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08-31-19 | Ole Miss +6.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 123 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Opening Week GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss +6½ -110 I think we are going to look back at this line later in the season and wonder what the heck were the books thinking making Ole Miss a dog against a non-Power 5 opponent. Especially one as talented as the Rebels. Ole Miss struggled in SEC play last year, but this team went 4-0 in non-conference. The most impressive non-conference win came in Week 1, as they rolled Texas Tech 47-27 as a 2-point dog. I know the record doesn't exactly reflect it, but there's a ton of talent on this Ole Miss roster and I love the two new coordinators they brought in to get the most of the talent on hand. Rich Rodriguez is new OC and Mike MacIntyre is the new DC. Two guys maybe didn't have the best run as head coaches, but are coaching what they know best in Oxford. Not to take anything away from Memphis, who has been one of the better Group of 5 programs the last 5 years, but I think they are outclassed. Keep in mind they got annihilated 65-33 by Missouri out of the SEC last year. I just don't see the Tigers winning here by a touchdown and will certainly have some money line action on the Rebels. Take Ole Miss! |
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08-30-19 | Rice +23.5 v. Army | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 105 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Friday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Rice +23½ -104 Not only is Army being overvalued coming off their 11-win season in 2018, but this also an awful spot for a blowout. The Black Knights have been a force under Jeff Monkin the last few years. They are 29-10 the last 3 seasons. Rice has 19 wins over the last 5 with a mere 5-31 mark the last 3 seasons. Easy to see how we get an inflated number. Rice is now in year two under head coach Mike Bloomgren and I look for the former Stanford OC to have the Owls improved across the board in 2019. Getting all this extra time to prepare for the triple-option is huge. As for the bad spot, no way does Army not look ahead to next week's game at Michigan. They have to be thinking the less they can put on tape for the Wolverines the better and it should also lead to starters getting pulled a little earlier in the 2nd half if things do get out of hand, opening up for a backdoor cover. Either way I like the Owls to keep this within the number. Take Rice! |
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08-29-19 | UCLA v. Cincinnati -2.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - No Limit Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati -2½ -105 I think we are getting a gift here with Cincinnati laying less than a field goal at home. These two met in last year's season opener and the Bearcats won outright 26-17 as a 14-point dog. While UCLA will be improved in year two under Chip Kelly, I still think they are a year or two away recruiting wise before he can really get this program back near the top of the Pac-12. Let's also not forget that Luke Fickell is now in year 3 at Cincinnati and this is the year it typically all comes together for new coaches. Fickell has 14 returning starters, including a really talented sophomore quarterback in Desmond Ridders. The offense is going to be good and there are still major concerns with UCLA's defense. Fickell, who was the DC at Ohio State will have the defense ready. Bearcats went from allowing 31.8 ppg in his first year to only giving up 17.2 ppg. They also shaved 100+ yards/game off what they allowed. You also have to factor in how hard it is to play on the road early in the season, especially the opener. Not to mention that when the Bearcats' put out a decent team, Nippert Stadium turns into one of the more tougher places to play. Take Cincinnati! |
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08-24-19 | Villanova v. Colgate -4 | Top | 34-14 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAF - Villanova/Colgate (FCS) TOP PLAY on Colgate -4 -109 Most are going to simply focus on the two FBS matchups between Florida/Miami and Arizona/Hawaii, but the real value on this first Saturday of college football is at the FCS level. I absolutely love Colgate as a small home favorite. This Raiders team is the real deal. They got a lot of talent back on a defense that was outstanding in 2018. They held 5 different teams scoreless last year. They got back their QB in Grant Breneman (Patriot League Preseason Player of the Year) and ranked #13 in the FCS Poll. Villanova is being picked to finish in the bottom half of the CAA. They got no shot here of keeping this within a touchdown. Take Colgate! |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 24 m | Show |
5* Rams/Patriots SUPER BOWL 53 Top Play on Rams + I really like the Rams to take down Belichick and Brady in Super Bowl 53. I love that after their big win over the Chiefs the Patriots have regained the public backing and are favored here. The underdog has covered 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Unlike Kansas City, whose defense just wasn't quite good enough, the Rams got the guys up front that can really disrupt Brady. It's a lot easier to set up your blocking to slow down edge rushers like the Chiefs' Dee Ford and Justin Houston. It's a whole different animal trying to slow down the dynamic duo of Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald. Just look at previous Super Bowls involving the Patriots. Their offense has struggled when going up against teams that can get pressure up the middle and force Brady out of the pocket. On the other side of the ball, New England has struggled with these high-powered offenses and I think Sean McVay and the Rams will be able to learn a lot with how the Patriots defended the Chiefs. Keep in mind that once KC figured out what the Pats were doing defensively, they did whatever they wanted. I just think the Rams have the better team and the edge on both sides of the football. Only reason the Patriots are favored is because of what they have done in the past. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
5* NFL Sunday (Chargers/Pats) AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chargers + I like Los Angeles to go into New England and win the game, so this is an easy play for me with the Chargers getting more than a field goal. I mean sure the Patriots could squeak out a win with the game being at home and them off a bye, but I don't see a scenario where they are able to generate the kind of separation needed to cover this spread. Props to Belichick for getting New England to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but the schedule was definitely in their favor this year and once against the AFC East was trash. Tom Brady isn't the same and simply doesn't have the weapons he needs to play at a high level. Most notably Gronk is not the same guy. He finished 4th in receiving, behind Josh Gordon, who played in two fewer games and had to learn the offense on the fly. The defense has been respectable, but still not an elite unit and will have a really tough time containing Rivers, who is playing exceptional football right now. As good as the Pats' dynasty has been, all good things come to an end. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 49 m | Show |
5* NFL Wild Card Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens - This is an exceptional price to get the Ravens at home against the Chargers. Baltimore just went to LA in Week 16 and dominated them 22-10. While Los Angeles did a good job slowing down the Ravens run game, but Baltimore still had 159 rushing yards and outgained the Chargers by 163 total yards. The Ravens defense was able to make life miserable for Philip Rivers and the LA offense. It's not going to be any easier on the road, where you have to deal with exceptional crowd noise in playoff games. I don't see any reason this quick rematch will yield a different outcome. Baltimore should be a much bigger favorite here, but the public loves this Chargers team and LA has the more trusted quarterback in Rivers. People forget how good a top notch rushing attack and stingy defense can be in the postseason. Take Baltimore! |
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01-01-19 | LSU v. Central Florida +7.5 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -105 | 433 h 20 m | Show |
5* College Football BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Central Florida + Time after time these Group of 5 teams that earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl show big time value in their bowl game. The perception that I think people have is that these teams aren't as good as people think because they don't play in a Power 5 Conference and will be no match against a top tier team from one of those conferences. This is not only not true, but it also gives these small conference schools a ton of motivation to prove people wrong. On the flip side of this, I think it's hard for the Power 5 teams they are playing to give them the respect they deserve. UCF will be without starting quarterback McKenzie Milton, but are in good shape with Darriel Mack Jr. They guy led the team from a double-digit deficit to defeat Memphis 56-41 in the American title game. All he did is throw for 348 yards 2 touchdowns, while rushing for 59 yards and 4 scores. I'm not saying they are going to win the game, but I think they got more than enough offense to do so and I'm confident that if they do lose it will be by a touchdown or less. Take UCF! |
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12-30-18 | Bears v. Vikings -4.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -103 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Vikings - Minnesota should have no problem here winning by at least a touchdown against the Bears. This is not a play against Chicago because I don't think they are a good team. This more about how little the game ultimately means to the Bears. Yes, Chicago can still get the No. 2 seed with a win and a Rams loss, but LA isn't losing at home to the 49ers. You can bet that the Bears' coaching staff will be playing close attention to that game and once the Rams get up on the 49ers, they have to start thinking about resting their guys and turning their attention to Wild Card weekend. While Chicago could come out flat and not 100% invested, this is basically an early playoff game for the Vikings. Win and they are headed to Wild Card weekend, lose and their season is likely over. I think the offense has been a lot better since the OC switch and more than anything, this is a different team on their home field. Vikings are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite, winning on average by 8.3 ppg. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Minnesota! |
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12-23-18 | Vikings v. Lions +6 | Top | 27-9 | Loss | -102 | 51 h 37 m | Show |
5* Vikings/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions + We are seeing a big time overreaction here given the situation and it's generated great value with Detroit. Minnesota comes in off a 41-17 home win over the Dolphins and the perception here is they are the only team with something to play for and will win easy. I'm not about to overreact to the Vikings beating a mediocre at best Miami team at home. This is also a division game and there's nothing more satisfying than playing spoiler against a division rival when you aren't in the playoff mix. I expect a big time effort here from the Lions to make sure the Vikings join them at home watching the postseason. Detroit has really been competitive of late. In their last 5 games their only bad loss is a 14-point defeat at home to the Rams, but that was a very misleading final score, as the Lions merely trailed by 3-points (16-13) going into the 4th quarter and LA added a late TD. Detroits's defense has really played well and let's not forget how much this Vikings offense was struggling prior to their big game last week against the Dolphins. It's far from a guarantee that Minnesota even wins this game. Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a SU win and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 off a game they covered the spread. Take Detroit! |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 51 h 35 m | Show |
5* NFL Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Panthers + This is the perfect time to buy low on the Panthers. Carolina has surprised just about everyone by losing 5 straight after starting the year 6-2. While it's hard to find positives in a 5-game losing streak, the Panthers have had their chances. Each of their last 4 defeats have come by 7-points or less and 4 of the last 5 have been on the road. Carolina is a dominant 5-1 at home and their lone home loss to the Seahawks is a game they gave away late. There's no way the Panthers should be catching almost a touchdown on their home field against any team in the league. New Orleans however is a massive public team right now. The Saints just covered a 9.5-point spread at Tampa Bay (very fortunate to cover) and are 10-1 ATS last 11. The big key here is the New Orleans offense is not playing at the same level it was early on. The Saints were held to just 10-points in a loss at Dallas and while they ended up with 28 last week at Tampa, they had just 3 points with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Carolina's got he talent up front to give the Saints trouble and that should be more than enough to keep them in this game. It's also worth noting this game means everything for the Panthers, who need to win to have a realistic shot at making it as a Wild Card. This one doesn't mean nearly as much to the Saints, thanks in large part to the Rams loss last night. A loss here and New Orleans still is in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Take Carolina! |
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12-15-18 | Browns +3 v. Broncos | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
5* NFL Browns/Broncos NO LIMIT Top Play on Browns + Cleveland has been a different team since Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were shown the door. They have already won 3 games under interim head coach Gregg Williams. That's as many as Jackson won in his entire tenure. A big reason for that is the talent they now have at quarterback. Baker Mayfield passes the eye test and is only going to keep getting better. Browns have won 3 of their last 4 and the lone loss against the Texans was a lot more competitive than the final score. Cleveland just didn't take care of the ball. While there chances of making the playoffs are slim, the fact that they even have a shot is enough for this team to play hard. I don't think Denver is looking at this the same way, especially after losing last week to a bad 49ers team. Not to mention all the key guys that are now out to injury for the Broncos. This line is begging for you take them as a slim home favorite, which is even more reason to like the Browns. Take Cleveland! |
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12-09-18 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 46 m | Show |
5* NFL AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens + This is just too many points for the Chiefs to be laying against a really good Baltimore team that is playing with a lot of momentum right now under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ravens have won 3 straight since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and while he's still got a ways to go as a pocket passer, he's been electric with his feet and the offense has scored 24 or more in all 3 of his starts. A mark they had eclipse only 3 times in their previous 9 games. With Jackson as the signal caller, Baltimore has rushed for at least 200 yards in all 3 of his starts and they are averaging almost 400 ypg during this stretch. All that running has allowed the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, which is huge against a team like KC, as the best defense for Mahomes and that attack is to not let them have the ball. With that said, I think this Ravens defense can at least slow down the Chiefs high-powered attack and keep them from putting a big number on the board. I like Spencer Ware, but this is not the same offense without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have wide out Sammy Watkins. Not as many big weapons as their previously was. Baltimore can load up the defense on Hill and Kelce. The Ravens have also been a great bet when facing a bad defensive team like Kansas City, especially later on in the year. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams who are allowing 375 or more total yards/game in the 2nd half of the season and have won these games outright by just over a touchdown. Take Baltimore! |
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12-02-18 | Rams v. Lions +10 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -105 | 122 h 57 m | Show |
5* NFC Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions + I just think Detroit is too talented a team to be getting double-digits at home, especially in this spot. While we all know the Lions aren't a playoff team, the mindset for this team is they win out and they have a chance, so I expect a max effort here to save their season. On the flip side of this, the Rams are returning from their bye week and they went into their bye off that thrilling 54-51 win over the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. LA has to be feeling pretty good about themselves and Detroit's not the kind of team that will get their attention. I think the Rams come out flat here and we have seen the Lions pull off some impressive performances at home. They dominated the Patriots 26-10 early on in the season and later beat the Packers 31-23 and recently knocked off Carolina as a 4-point dog. Prior to beat the Chiefs the Rams had gone 1-5 ATS in their previous 6 games. As long as the public thinks they are the best team, they will be way overvalued. Take Detroit! |
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12-01-18 | Marshall v. Virginia Tech -4 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 97 h 0 m | Show |
5* NCAAF Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech - It's been a disappointing season for the Hokies, but this is not near enough points for Virginia Tech to be laying at home against a C-USA opponent. I get that Marshall enters this game 8-3, but they didn't even win their own division in one of the lower ranked FBS conferences. The Thundering Herd have also played a cupcake schedule. Out of their 8 wins, the only one against a team that currently has a winning record is last week's win over FIU. A game they won by a mere 3-points, despite recording two non-offensive touchdowns. They avoided all 3 of the top teams out of the C-USA West and in their step up game against C-USA East winner (Middle Tennessee), they lost by 10 at home. Any thoughts that the Hokies aren't motivated to play because things didn't go their way can be put to rest after last week's 34-31 upset win at home over in-state rival Virginia. With that win, Virginia Tech simply needs to win this game at home to become bowl eligible. Justin Fuente is going to want those extra practices with this young and talented team and will have his team ready to go on Saturday. Hokies are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 18-7 ATS last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. Herd are 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU Win and a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 overall. Take Virginia Tech! |
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11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +7.5 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 54 m | Show |
5* Saints/Cowboys NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cowboys + We are getting unbelievable value here with Dallas catching over a touchdown at home. What this line tells us is that New Orleans would be at least a double-digit favorite on a neutral field and close to a 14-point favorite at home against the Cowboys. That's ridiculous. I know the Saints just covered as 13.5-point favorites at home against the Falcons, but that was a complete fluke. Atlanta had multiple turnovers in the red zone that took points off the scoreboard and wound up losing the game by 14. Falcons actually outgained New Orleans 366 to 312. Keep in mind that's the same Atlanta team that Dallas beat on the road in Week 11. The move to acquire wide out Amari Cooper has really paid off for the Cowboys. It's not only given Dak someone he can count on in the passing game when he needs to throw for a big first down, but more importantly it's opened up the running game. With the way Dallas is playing defense, if they can pound the rock and play the clock, they not only will keep this within the number, but they will have an excellent shot of winning this game outright and putting an end to that 10-game winning streak of the Saints. Take Dallas! |
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