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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 215 | Top | 84-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
5* Knicks/Thunder NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder/Knicks UNDER This is just too many points for this matchup. I believe we are seeing a high total here because of the fact that the Thunder now have 3 superstars in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. As good as those 3 are, it's going to take some time for these guys to form a chemistry on offense. George and Anthony are accustomed to being "the guy," but will have to learn to take a back seat to Westbrook. I think it takes as much as the first 20 games before this team really gels. The other thing is the depth isn't what it use to be. The Thunder are going struggle to get a whole lot out of their bench. There's also a decent chance the starters don't play the entire game here, as the Knicks have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. New York just doesn't have the offensive fire-power and in today's game where everyone is lighting up the scoreboard, they didn't even average 100 ppg in the preseason when no one is playing defense. I don't see the offense doing much here on the road in what's going to be electric atmosphere inside Chesapeake Energy Arena. Take the UNDER! |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors - There's no question the refs were doing their part to extend the series at least one more game with how they officiated that 1st quarter of Game 5, which Cleveland managed to score a ridiculous 49 points in the 1st quarter and 86 in the 1st half. The Cavs were shooting free throws left and right early. That played a huge role in the game. More than anything them getting off to that strong start gave them confidence, which led to a great shooting night. It also got the Warriors in foul trouble and didn't let them play with the same intensity on defense. It's not that Golden State wasn't committing any fouls, it's just they weren't calling the same fouls on Cleveland on the other side of the ball. With the series back in Golden State, I look for the Warriors to get a more favorable whistle and that should be all they need to not only win, but to win in blowout fashion. Take Golden State! |
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06-09-17 | Warriors -6 v. Cavs | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors - I'll be the first to admit that I was fortunate to cover with the Warriors in Game 3, but I'm not jumping off them, even with a bigger number in Game 4. Cleveland played as well as they could and had to feel like they had the game won before that epic collapse in the final 3 minutes. I just don't see the Cavs emotionally and physically having what it takes to keep Game 4 competitive. Yes, it's the NBA Finals, but going out with a fight isn't as big a deal for a team that just won the title last year. On the flip side of this, I see no letdown for the Warriors, who are not only chasing a perfect 16-0 record in the postseason, but I believe they want to return the favor and celebrate the title on Cleveland's floor after losing Game 7 at home last year. You have to be 100% locked in to beat this Warriors team and I just don't see being the case for Cleveland, who I think will be quick to throw in the towel once Golden State gets anywhere close to a double-digit lead. Take Golden State! |
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06-07-17 | Warriors -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors - As much as everyone wants Cleveland to make this a series and win Game 3 at home, I just don't think it's going to happen. It would be one thing if Golden State finished off the Cavs last year after taking a 3-1 lead, but because they failed to do so, I don't see them taking any game for grantit. I look for them to come out 100% locked in on taking a 3-0 lead and I just don't know what Cleveland is going to do to stop them. LeBron is averaging a triple-double and they are getting beat by 20+ points/game. Even if the Cavs' role players step up and play better, I still think it takes a near perferct performance just for them to win this game. I also hear alot about how the first two games last year in Golden State were blowouts. That team didn't have Durant and he's the MVP of the finals right now. Take Golden State! |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on OVER After a relatlvely low-scoring Game 1, I think we are seeing some decent value here on the total and it going over the mark in Game 2. Keep in mind the total was as high as 227 in Game 1. Golden State scored 113 and it could have been a lot more had they not missed so many easy shots around the rim. The real killer to the total in Game 1 was the Cavs inability to get their offense going, as well as they just shot the ball bad. Cleveland shot just 34.9% from the field. What people overlook is the Warriors also didn't have a great shooting performance, as they hit only 42.5%. Their worst mark from the field since a regular season meeting against the 76ers back on March 14. The lopsided score also aided a lower scoring Game 1, though I think we could see another blowout and this game still fly over the mark. Take the OVER! |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors - These two teams are clearly in a class above the rest of the league, I just feel that the Warriors are the more complete team. James is the best player in the game, but he's going up against 4 of the best players in the game in Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green, plus I feel that Golden State has the deeper roster. You also can't discount the revenge here with the Warriors after blowing a 3-1 lead in last year's Finals. It's also worth pointing out that the home team has dominated the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, going 11-1 ATS in the last 12. On top of that, James' teams are 1-6 ATS in Game 1 of the Finals. Take Golden State! |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +11 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics + Not a big surprise that Boston is a bigger home dog here in Game 5 than they were in Games 1 and 2 with the loss of star point guard Isaiah Thomas, but I'm not so sure the loss of Thomas is as bad as people think. The Celtics won their first game without him in Cleveland and followed that up with another strong showing in a loss in Game 4, where Irving went off and the Cavs didn't miss in the 2nd half (shot 65% from the field). How are they better? As good of a scorer as Thomas is, he's a major liability on defense, especially when he's got to guard Irving and get put in pick-n-rolls with LeBron. At the same time, Boston's offense is more of a system than anything, much like the Spurs, which can give teams problem. I actually think the loss of Thomas has helped them move the ball better. I don't see this team going down without a fight and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Take BOSTON! |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs -14.5 | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavaliers - I know this is a huge number and the Celtics just won outright as an even bigger dog in Game 3, but I just don't see this game being competitive. Cleveland did whatever they wanted in the first two games of the series, including that epic beatdown in Game 2, where they were up by 50. If they were going to suffer a letdown, it was going to be Game 3 and while it happened, they still had a 20+ point lead in the 2nd half. A 100% locked in Cleveland team will take the floor tonight and no one is going to be more motivated than LeBron James, who has been hearing nothing but how poorly he played in Game 3. I think we could see another massive blowout here and I'm confident that the Cavaliers wins here by 20+ points. Take Cleveland! |
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05-22-17 | Warriors -12 v. Spurs | Top | 129-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors - I'll take my chances with the Warriors closing this series out in fashion, much like they did in the first two rounds on the road. Up 3-0 on the Blazers in Round 1, Golden State defeated Portland 128-103. In the next round, up 3-0 on the Jazz, they crushed Utah on the road 121-95. I expect a similar outcome here and wouldn't be shocked if got ugly. San Antonino gave it all they had in Game 3 without Khawi and lost by 12 and with him still sidelined and David Lee also now out, I just don't see the Spurs truly believing they can come back and make this a series. As for Golden State, they got a great reminder of what can happen when you take your foot off the gas with the Celtics improbable win yesterday. They also now have a chance to get some extra rest on Cleveland before the finals, who still has to play at least two more games. Take Golden State! |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 214 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year on UNDER Each of the first two games in this series have gone well over the total and yet we are seeing the books stick close to their original number of 212 that they opened with for Game 1. With the series shifting to San Antonio and the Warriors off a 36-point blowout win in Game 2, I think Game 3 is poised to be a much lower-scoring game. For one, Golden State is primed for some kind of letdown here after how easy it was in Game 2 and don't figure to shoot as well on the road. San Antonio on the other hand is playing to keep their season alive. While the series isn't over with a loss, the Spurs know their chances of advancing down 3-0 are slim to none against this Warriors team. We are going to get everything San Antonio has and they know their only way of even keeping it close so they have a chance to win is to lock down defensively and slow the pace of play down. My money is on Popovich and his staff to make the proper adjustments and keep the Warriors high-powered attack in check. Take the UNDER! |
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05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs - I was all over Cleveland in Game 1 and I just can't go against them after what I saw in the opener. As I mentioned in my analysis for Game 1, the Cavs are taking note of everything the Warriors are doing and want to match their perfect 10-0 start to the postseason.The last thing they want is to have this series drag out before taking on Golden State. I know this team struggled some with Indiana, but they were in the process of turning on that playoff switch after not playing well to close out the regular season. They made easy work of a very good Toronto team in the next round and did whatever they wanted to the Celtics on Wednesday. I truly believe Boston has to play their best just to keep this game close and could do so and still not cover this spread. LeBron James is playing out of his mind and when he's locked in like this, there's no stopping this team, at least in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind this is a Cavs team that is fresh right now, having played a mere 9 games in over a month (played first playoff game on 4/15). Take Cleveland! |
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05-17-17 | Cavs -4 v. Celtics | Top | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Cavs - Don't think for a second that Cleveland isn't taking notice of the Warriors and their perfect 10-0 start. The Cavs also went a perfect 8-0 in the first two rounds and I'm not buying this team coming out flat. Not after watching how Golden State struggled after their long layoff in Game 1 against the Spurs. Cleveland also has a little extra motivation, as they are trying to take control of home court in the series. The Cavs won 3 of the 4 meetings in the regular season and I think the most telling of those games was the most recent one on April 5th. At that time these two were neck and neck for the No. 1 seed in the east. Cleveland didn't just go into Boston and beat the Celtics, they dominated them 114-91, easily covering at a near identical line to what we are getting here in Game 1. It's also worth noting the only game the Cavs lost in the regular season series was a 99-103 defeat at Boston, where they shot a miserable 40% from the field. All of this and we haven't got to the fact that this is a difficult spot for Boston. The Celtics just finished up a grueling 7-game series against the Wizards on Monday. The Cavs haven't played since 5/7. They had a similar layoff between the 1st and 2nd round and won Game 1 over the Raptors rather easily. Take Cleveland! |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -13.5 | Top | 100-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors - It's unfortunate what happened with Kawhi Leonard in Game 1, but it was clear that his absence changed everything. It's not so much his scoring that San Antonio missed, but his defense. Sure the rest of the Spurs are going to come out motivated, but this is the Western Conference Finals. Golden State is too talented and respects the game too much to take this one for granted. They haven't forgot what San Antonio did to the Rockets on the road without Leonard to close out their previous series and how this team jumped all over them to start Game 1. I expect a much different Warriors team from the tip and let's face it, this is the most talented team in the league and I just feel it's going to be too much for the Spurs without Leonard to keep this one competitive. Take Golden State! |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 211 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 Top Play on UNDER The OVER had gone 4-1 in the series before a grueling 92-91 win by the Wizards in Game 6. It wasn't just one quarter where both teams were off. The highest combined point total of any quarter was 52. That's a 110 pace if they would have reached that mark in every quarter. This is just how the playoffs work. The deeper you get into a series the more intense it gets. That combined with the familiarity with each other usually results in much lower scoring games than what we might have seen earlier in the series. This is really magnified in Game 7, where it's win or go home. Not only are teams giving 100% on defense every single play, but the pressure of the game often leads to some poorer shooting percentages. For most of the players on both of these teams, this will be the biggest game of their career. I would side with Boston given the advantage the home team has in Game 7 historically, but feel the best value is with the total. Take the UNDER! |
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05-14-17 | Spurs +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs + As good as the Warriors have looked in the first two rounds, I think they are going to have a much more difficult time getting past the Spurs. San Antonio just eliminated the Rockets on the road without their best player and did so in blowout fashion. That's a direct credit to Popovich and the system the Spurs have in place. Not that the Spurs are talented, but they aren't on the same level as these Warriors. However, coaching and execution on both sides of the ball will give them a shot. More than anything their defense and ability to keep the Warriors from just unloading 3-pointers. I'm not saying the Spurs win Game 1 on the road, but I do think it's a close game and they cover the near double-digit spread. Take San Antonio! |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Wizards - As stated in previous writeups for this series, there's such a big home court edge. Both teams rely a lot on their role players and those guys just play better at home. A big part of that is also because both of these teams also take a lot of jump shots and shooting percentages are almost always going to be better at home than on the road. Boston shot 51.1% in both Game 1 and Game 2, then shot 35.1% and 44.3% in games 3 & 4 in Washington, only to return to form an hit 52.9% at home in Game 5. Washington had one of it's worst shooting performances of the season in Game 5, hitting just 38.5% of their shots. Yet they still managed to score 101 points. Prior to that they had scored 111 or more in each of the previous 4. I look for their offense to return to form at home and the Celtics to struggle. Take Washington! |
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05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 214 | Top | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs/Rockets UNDER These two teams combined for 217 points, just eclipsing the total of 216, but needed OT to get there, as the two combined for only 202 at the end of regulation. The Rockets only played 7 players in that game and all 7 logged at least 26 minutes and 6 of the 7 played 34 or more with 4 players eclipsing 40 minutes. Houston clearly ran out of gas in that game. Playing at home will help those tired legs, but I just don't see the Rockets playing at the ridiculous tempo here and for this one to finish well below the numbers the books have posted. I believe we will see a similar style of game to Game 3, where the two combined for 195 points. Take the UNDER! |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics - I look for the Celtics to take back control of the series tonight. Washington won the last two, but both of those came at home. They lost each of the first two in Boston and I think with the shift back to Boston the Celtics will be the sharper team. Both of these teams rely a lot on role players and those guys just perform better at home. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Celtics won this series 4-3 with the road team losing all 7. With that said, I also expect a big game here from Boston's Isaiah Thomas, who totaled just 32 points in the two games in Washington after scoring 86 in the first two in Boston. I also like that the media is hyping up how much the Wizards starters are outplaying the Celtics. Adds even more of edge here for them. Take Boston! |
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05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5 | Top | 107-110 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs - Each of the first 4 games in this series have been decided by 10 or more points and I wouldn't be surprised if that trend continued here with San Antonio taking Game 5 at home in convincing fashion. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 on their home floor, the Spurs responded by taking games 2 and 3 by locking down defensively. They got away from that in Game 4, plus the Rockets were the much more desperate team, trying to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series. I look for Popovich and the Spurs to make the proper defensive adjustments from Game 4 and win here by more than the number. It's also worth throwing out there that the Spurs are 81-28 (74%) in home playoff games since they moved to the AT&T Center back in 2002. Take San Antonio! |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Rockets - It's amazing how much this series has shifted since the Rockets blowout win on the road in Game 1. As good as the Spurs have looked in the last two games, my money is on Houston to regain some of that form from the opener and tie this series up at 2-2. San Antonio has done a tremendous job holding the Rockets offense in check the last two games, but I don't see it happening three times in a row, especially on the road. A big part of Houston's struggles in Game 3, was they simply didn't make shots, as they were a mere 36.4% from the field. I also like that the Rockets are now the more desperate team in the series, as I think they got a bit to comfortable with how easy it was in Game 1. Take Houston! |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +6 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Jazz + I like the value here with the Jazz as a pretty decent sized home dog against the Warriors. Utah has shown some flashes against Golden State in this series and should get a big lift from this series shifting to their home floor. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Warriors, who have yet to lose in the playoffs, still without their head coach and playing on the road in one of the more difficult places for opposing teams to play. I think there's a decent chance the Jazz wins this game outright, but I'll take the points for some extra insurance. Take Utah! |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Rockets - This has been an interesting series to start. Houston did whatever they wanted in a blowout win in Game 1 on the road, only to turn around and get beat badly on the road in Game 2. I still like what I saw from the Rockets in the opener to back them at this price in Game 3 at home. Houston simply didn't shoot the ball well in Game 2 and failed to match the intensity of the Spurs. I expect a much more focused Rockets team tonight and those outside shots tend to fall at a higher rate at home. I'm confident the Spurs aren't going to hold them under 100 points for a second straight game. Another huge factor here is the loss of Tony Parker for San Antonio. While he's a far cry from his prime, it's never easy replacing minutes lost at the point guard position. Take Houston! |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5.5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
5* Celtics/Wizards NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Wizards - I really like the Wizards to not only beat Boston in Game 3 at home, but I think they put away the Celtics in convincing fashion. Washington let two golden opportunities to steal one in Boston get away, as they had control of both of those games early and just couldn't finish off the Celtics in the 4th quarter. That was on the road, where the Wizards aren't the same team as they are at home. I look for Washington to once again get up early and this time finish the job. Keep in mind that all the motivation is with the Wizards down 0-2. As for Boston, this is a huge let down spot for them. They have won 6 straight overall and just stole two in a row at home. Keep in mind the Wizards were a perfect 3-0 at home against the Hawks in round 1. Take Washington! |
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05-03-17 | Raptors +8 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors + Toronto came up short in Game 1, but that proved to be a great spot for the Cavs off the long lay off. The Raptors lackluster defense and poor shooting night didn't help matters. Toronto is primed for a much better effort in Game 2 and I look for the Raptors to make the proper adjustments here to play a more competitive game from start to finish. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Raptors won this game or at least had a chance to take control late in the 4th quarter. DeRozan and Lowry only combined for 39 points and the Raptors lost by 11. I think those two are closer to 50 tonight. Take Toronto! |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -13 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors - I got no problem laying the big number with Golden State in this one. I don't think the Jazz are going to make this much of a series. The Warriors are simply too talented. The Warriors have had over a week to rest up, practice and get back some of that chemistry with Durant. As good as Utah is defensively, I just don't think they are going to be able to much to slow down Golden State in this one. Keep in mind we are talking about a Jazz team that just laid it all on the line Sunday in LA to close out the Clippers on the road in Game 7. Getting only 1 day to rest and get focused on the Warriors isn't enough time. I think this gets ugly in a hurry. Take Golden State! |
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05-01-17 | Raptors +7 v. Cavs | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* Raptors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors + I know Cleveland has had over a week off since they swept the Pacers, but I think that rest actually hurts them. While the Cavs swept Indiana, they were far from dominant in the series. In fact, Cleveland's largest win in the series was 6-points. Keep in mind that this is a team that really struggled down the stretch. I still think there's major concerns with their defense, which allowed the Pacers to score 100+ in all 4 games. Toronto didn't look great early on against a talented young Bucks team, but they closed out Milwaukee with 3 straight wins and I think they matchup really well with Cleveland. While the Cavs went 3-1 in the regular season and rested their stars in the only loss, all 3 of Cleveland's wins came by 4-poitns or less. I wouldn't be shocked if the Raptors won this game outright. Take Toronto! |
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04-30-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 104-91 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers - It's been well documented that the home team has the advantage in Game 7 and going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team has gone 28-16 (64%) against the spread when the series reaches the winner take all stage. I know the Clippers are without one of their stars in Blake Griffin, but as long as they have a healthy Chris Paul they are going to be a top level team. LA avoided elimination on the road in Game 6 and did so by shooting an impressive 49% from the field. Everyone loves to talk about Utah's defense, but the Clippers have held the Jazz to 42% or worse from the field in each of the last two games. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-28-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 115-99 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Hawks -Â The home team has won all 5 games in this series and I don't see that trend coming to an end tonight. Atlanta won both Game 3 and Game 4 by double-digits at home and could have easily won all 3 games in Washington. I just think the Wizards are getting way to much respect here with the Hawks basically at a pick'em with the line less than 3 points. Atlanta did cover in a loss in Game 5 and that's worth noting, as Washington is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games after failing to cover the number in their last game. Hawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Take Atlanta! |
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04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks - I like the value here with Milwaukee as a short home favorite against the Raptors. The Bucks are facing elimination here and while they struggled to keep in close in Game 5 at Toronto, Milwaukee has proven they can hold their own against these Raptors and I look for them to not only win here but to do so in blowout fashion. Toronto simply shot lights out in Game 5, as they finished the game 57.7% from the field. I look for those shooting numbers to go way down on the road against a good Bucks defense that is going to feed off the energy of the home fans. Bucks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games after losing 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-26-17 | Bulls +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls + I know Chicago just dropped both games at home without Rondo, but I still think the value is with the Bulls in Game 5. While Rondo won't return, I think Chicago found something that worked without him in game 4 with Isaiah Canaan and letting Butler take over more responsibility at the point. The Bulls also shot the ball poorly from long distance in both games at home and I look for them to connect on a few more with an offense that works. I also think Boston relies too much on Thomas to carry the load and I believe he's got to play exceptional for the Celtics to win here in a blowout. Bulls are 11-3 ATS this season as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points, while Boston is a mere 5-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Chicago! |
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04-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -3 | Top | 96-92 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Clippers - I really like the value here with Los Angeles as a short home favorite. Note that I cashed in on the Jazz in Game 4. Even without Blake Griffin, I still think Los Angeles has enough talent to win at home over a team like Utah. As long as the Clippers have a healthy Chris Paul, they will be a difficult out. Utah just isn't the same team on the road and let's also not forget Gordon Hayward is likely playing here at less than 100%. He's the one guy Utah needs to play well to win on the road. Los Angeles is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and the Jazz are 3-11 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 6 points or less. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-24-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -2 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks - I really like the value here with Atlanta at basically a pick'em at home. This is one of those series where I wouldn't be surprised if it went the distance with the home team winning every game. Washington just isn't the same team on the road as they are at home and Atlanta isn't getting near enough respect here. The Hawks won Game 3 116-98 and dominated from the start with a 38-20 first quarter. Let's not forget Atlanta played extremely well in both losses in Washington and could have easily won both of those games. I also like the adjustments the Hawks have put in play as the series has progressed. Wizards are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a loss and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after they failed to cover. Take Atlanta! |
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04-23-17 | Clippers v. Jazz -2 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Play of the Month on Jazz - I really like the value here with Utah at basically a pick'em at home with what feels like their season on the line. The Jazz have lost the last two after stealing Game 1 on the road. They shouldn't have lost Game 3 at home, as they led by 13 after the 1st quarter and still had the lead going into the 4th. As most of you know, that win came at a cost for the Clippers. Blake Griffin suffered what they originally thought to be a minor injury, but he's out for the playoffs. It's not so much that I don't think the Clippers feel they can't win this series without Griffin, but the undeniable feeling that they have to have when it comes to their chances of getting past the Warriors in the next round. With the win in Game 3 LA got back home court advantage and that only adds to this being such a big letdown spot for the Clippers and such a massive game for the Jazz. Take Utah! |
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04-22-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 195.5 | Top | 87-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks UNDER I was all over the UNDER in Game 3 (1st Rd Total of the Month) and I'm sticking with it for Game 4. I expected a much slower paced game when the series shifted to Milwaukee in Game 3 and see no reason to think Game 4 is all the sudden going to be a shootout. The Bucks have shown they matchup well with the Raptors, who just can't get comfortable with the size of Milwaukee. On the flip side of this, Toronto's back is against the wall, as they certainly don't want to fall behind 3-1 in the series. Look for an all out effort here from the Raptors on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, we can expect some regression from Milwaukee's offense, which shot a ridiculous 53% from the field and 52% behind the 3-point line. As for the Bucks, I don't see them not bringing it as well, as they know all their hard work is for nothing if they let Toronto win here and take back the home court advantage. Take the UNDER! |
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04-21-17 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics I was leaning towards taking Boston prior to the news that Rondo was going to be out for the Bulls, but that only strengthens this selection. Rondo might not be considered an elite player anymore, but he was playing like one in this series and is someone who is known for taking his game to another level in the postseason. Not having him on the floor is going to make it difficult for Chicago to get into a flow offensively. It will be a lot more of Butler and Wade playing 1-on-1. At the same time, we are going to get everything the Celtics have to offer, as they know they can't afford to go down 3-0, especially with Chicago missing such a key player. Boston just wasn't themselves in the first two games and a lot of that was the unfortunate timing passing of Thomas' sister. I expect a much more focused Celtics team to take the floor and for them to win this one comfortably. Take Boston! |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196.5 | Top | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Bucks UNDER I really like the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the Raptors and Bucks. These two combined for just 180 points in Milwaukee's 97-83 win. They would go for 206 in Toronto's 106-100 victory in Game 2. With the series shifting to Milwaukee and the Bucks clearly better off with a slower pace, I look for them to dictate the tempo. This is also a huge game in the series, as both teams will be desperate for that 2-1 series lead. UNDER is 6-1 in the Raptors last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 16-5 in their last 21 road games overall. UNDER is 16-4 in the Bucks last 20 when facing an opponent that scored 100+ in their last game, 5-1-1 in their last 7 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. Take the UNDER! |
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04-19-17 | Thunder +8 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder + I really like the value here with OKC as a big dog in Game 2 of this series. The Thunder lost Game 1 by a final of 87-118, despite only trailing by 5-points at the half. Just about everything that could go wrong in the 2nd half did. Not to mention Westbrook had an off night. I look for Westbrook to bounce back in a big way and for the Thunder as a team to make the proper adjustments to not only allow them to keep this game close, but potentially win outright. Take Oklahoma City! |
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04-18-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -7 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics - I have all the confidence in the Celtics evening up the series at 1-1 on their home floor and doing so in convincing fashion. I was all over the Bulls in Game 1, as I just thought it was a tough spot for Boston and their star Isaiah Thomas. I also don't think the Celtics gave Chicago the respect they deserved. I expect to see a completely different Boston team, as they simply can't afford to go down 2-0 with the series shifting to Chicago for Game 3. Thomas actually played better than I expected given the circumstances in Game 1, but the rest of the Celtics didn't show up. On the flip side, the Bulls got a career game out of Bobby Portis, who scored 19 points off the bench on 8 of 10 shooting. I look for the Celtics bench to be the deciding factor here as this one could get ugly in a hurry if the Bulls struggle to find their outside shot. Take Boston! |
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04-17-17 | Pacers +8 v. Cavs | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacers + I was on the Pacers in their near win in Game 1 and will gladly back them at basically the same price in Game 2. I think Cleveland is good enough to win the east, but I don't think they are going to just flip a switch and dominate like a lot of people are expecting. Indiana believes they can win this series after their near victory in the opener and I believe will be the more desperate team here. Keep in mind that James was sensational in Game 1, scoring 32 points with 13 assists and 6 rebounds, yet they almost lost. As I've said multiple times now, the addition of Lance Stephenson was huge for the Pacers. They have been a different team since he joined the roster. I'll take the points to play it safe, but I wouldn't be shocked to see this series at 1-1. Take Indiana! |
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04-16-17 | Thunder +7 v. Rockets | Top | 87-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
5* Thunder/Rockets NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder + This is the series everyone is talking about, as we have the two MVP front-runners facing off with Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Houston has the better overall record, but I think they are getting way too much respect here. OKC isn't good enough to win it all, but this is definitely a series they could pull off. As we saw last year, the physical play of the postseason fits a lot of the Thunder's players and these two teams played 3 games that were decided by 3-points or less. I also think we are going to see a better OKC team in the playoffs, as they no longer have to worry about Westbrook and getting triple-doubles. They can just go out and play. My big concern with Houston is their defense and that they rely so much on the outside shot. Not saying you can't win being a jump shooting team, you just don't get near as many good looks in the playoffs. Take Oklahoma City! |
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04-15-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers - A lot of people forget how good the Clippers were playing early in the year before they had to deal with some big time injuries to their star players. Los Angeles got healthy when it matters the most and started to look more and more like that team we saw in October and November down the stretch. Note they won their final 7 games to overtake the Jazz for the No. 4 spot. As much as I love this Utah team, I think the playoffs could prove to be a problem for them. More than anything, I see this as one of those series where the home team has the big edge and I also think the Clippers are the more talented team. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-12-17 | Raptors -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors - Cleveland has made it pretty clear that they have no interest in playing out the regular season with their starters, even though the No. 1 seed is technically still in play. The Cavs will not have the services of LeBron James and expect some of other stars to sit out or have their minutes greatly restricted. Toronto doesn't have anything to play for, but they at least have the majority of their starts in play. Raptors have been a money maker against the top level teams like Cleveland, as they are 9-1 ATS this season when facing a team that's won between 60%-70% of their games. Take Toronto! |
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04-09-17 | Thunder v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Game of the Month on Nuggets - I really like the value here with Denver at home against the Thunder. While Oklahoma City is locked into the No.6 seed and just playing for Westbrook to get one more triple-double, this is basically a playoff game for the Nuggets. Denver is currently 1.5-games back of the Blazers for the 8th and final spot and need to win this game to stay alive. It's also worth noting that Denver is not an easy place to play with tired legs and the Thunder figure to be a bit fatigued playing their 3rd straight away from home. Last time out OKC allowed the Suns to shoot 51.8% in a 21-point loss and the Nuggets come in having shot 50% or better from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Take Denver! |
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04-07-17 | Hawks +12 v. Cavs | Top | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks + I think we are getting some great value here with Atlanta as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers. I believe we are seeing an inflated line here with Cleveland having covered 3 of their last 4 and fresh off a dominant showing a 114-91 win at Boston on Wednesday. The Cavs played it off as if it was another game, but they clearly got up for that contest. I'm expecting a bit of a letdown here, as they are sitting pretty good with the No. 1 seed. The Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but don't have the luxury of taking a night off right now. While Atlanta is currently 5th in the east standings, they are just 2-games ahead of 9th place Miami with 4 to play. It's also worth noting that the Hawks have played Cleveland well this season. They are 1-1 with a win at Cleveland and their loss coming by just 5-points at home. Take Atlanta! |
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04-06-17 | Bucks v. Pacers -4 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Pacers - The addition of Lance Stephenson might not seem like much for the Pacers, but I think it's just what they needed to secure one of the final spots in the east playoff race. Stephenson gives this team a physical edge and constant energy that they were lacking. Indiana comes in off a comfortable 108-90 home win over the Raptors and I look for a similar outcome here against the Bucks. Milwaukee just lost 79-110 at OKC and are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. I believe a big part of their struggles is the absence of rookie point guard Malcolm Brogdon. The other big thing here is that the Pacers play like an elite team at home, where they are 27-12 on the season. Pacers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 25-13 in their last 38 home games when revenging a road loss. Take Indiana! |
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04-05-17 | Nuggets +9 v. Rockets | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nuggets + I really like the value here with Denver as a near double-digit dog against the Rockets. The Nuggets can move into a tie with the Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west and they have to believe they can overtake Portland after they lost a big piece in Jusuf Nurkic. Houston is simply coasting into the postseason, as they are locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. While I expect the starters to play for the Rockets, there's just nothing to get motivated for in this one and I think there's going to be a minutes restriction on all the key rotation players. Take Denver! |
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04-04-17 | Magic +9 v. Cavs | Top | 102-122 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Vegas Insider Top Play on Magic + I like the value here with Orlando as a near double-digit dog against the Cavaliers. Cleveland comes in off a thrilling 135-130 double-overtime win at home against the Pacers on Sunday. LeBron played 52 minutes and the other 4 starters all had 37 or more with 3 eclipsing 40 minutes. I believe this game against the Magic becomes a massive letdown spot for the Cavs with a massive road game on deck tomorrow night in Boston. I'm not saying the Magic win this game, but I don't see the kind of effort here from Cleveland to make this a blowout. It's also worth noting that Orlando has continued to play hard down the stretch. I would expect them to show up against the defending champs. Cavs are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last 2 at home and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 off a game where they won but failed to cover as a favorite. Take Orlando! |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina -1 v. Gonzaga | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
5* N Carolina/Gonzaga National Title NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina - The Tar Heels have burned me in each of their last two games, where they were in prime position to cover and failed to do so. I'm not jumping off the bandwagon now. I pick North Carolina to win it all when the bracket came out, as I believed they were the most talented team in the field of 68. That's still the case and while Gonzaga has proved me wrong, let's not overlook the path for the Bulldogs to the title game. The best team they faced in terms of seeding was No. 4 West Virginia and they arguably should have lost that game. Gonzaga has great size down low and there bigs do a really good job of passing out of double-teams. North Carolina has elite size and won't have to help on the bigs, which I believe is going to make things really difficult for Gonzaga's offense. Take North Carolina! |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
5* Final Four Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina - I really like the value here with the Tar Heels, as I think they should be a much bigger favorite against the Ducks. North Carolina was just in the title game last year and the ability to fall back on that experience of the Final Four is going to pay off in a big way this time around. Not to mention the Tar Heels are the most talented team left in the field. Oregon was impressive in wins over Michigan and Kansas last weekend, but both of those teams were great matchups for the Ducks. The Wolverines and Jayhawks are both guard oriented. North Carolina has great guards, but their strength is their size and talent inside. I believe it's going to be too much for the Ducks to overcome in this one. Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Pac-12 and 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games as a favorite. Take North Carolina! |
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03-31-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -6 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors - I really like the value here with Toronto at home against the Pacers. The Raptors laid an egg last time out in a 106-110 home loss to the Hornets and I believe it has some people doubting them going into this game against Indiana. Prior to that loss Toronto had won 6 straight and were playing their best basketball since losing Lowry. I look for the Raptors to bounce back in a big way here, as they fight for the No. 3 spot in the east. I know the Pacers have a lot to play for as well, but they are a horrible road team and dealing with some injuries right now. Keep in mind these two teams played in Toronto recently on 3/19 and Toronto won 116-91. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record and Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Toronto! |
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03-30-17 | Rockets v. Blazers +2 | Top | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Blazers + I really like the value here with Portland as a home dog against the Rockets in a nationally televised game on TNT. Houston comes into this game off a 106-113 loss at home to the Warriors, which was a game they definitely wanted to win. With a rematch on deck at Golden State tomorrow, I just don't see Houston being all that interested in this game. Keep in mind the Rockets are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. There's a chance that Houston could rest some players or limit their minutes. Portland on the other hand is in a battle for the No. 8 spot in the west, which they currently hold a 1-game lead over the Nuggets. Most importantly the Trail Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won 4 straight and 12-3 in their last 15 overall. Take Portland! |
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03-29-17 | Hawks -1 v. 76ers | Top | 99-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks - I really like the value here with the Hawks at basically a pick'em on the road against the 76ers. Atlanta snapped a 7-game losing streak with a win at home over the Suns last night and I look for them to carry over that momentum against Philadelphia. The 76ers also won last night at Brooklyn, but are playing short-handed right now and I look for them to struggle to bring the intensity needed to win here on no rest. Note that these two teams have played 3 times this season and all 3 have been blowout wins for the Hawks. Atlanta won 104-72 at Philadelphia on 10/29, 117-96 at home on 11/12 and 110-93 at home on 1/21. Hawks are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after losing 2 of their last 3 games and 13-5 in their last 18 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Atlanta! |
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03-28-17 | Wolves v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 115-114 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pacers - I really like the value here with Indiana as a relatively short home favorite against the Timberwolves. The Pacers are simply a different team at home than they are on the road. Indiana is 26-11 at home compared to 11-25 on the road. They simply aren't getting enough respect here at home against a struggling Minnesota team that has lost 6 straight and are just 10-25 on the road this season. Part of the problem for the Timberwolves is reality is setting in that they are going to miss out on the playoffs, which is a big disappointment. Indiana is currently 7th in the east, but are just 2.5 games from 9th. The Pacers can't afford to lose here and I look for a big time effort from them in this one. Take Indiana! |
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03-27-17 | Thunder v. Mavs +2 | Top | 92-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Mavs + Dallas is showing some great value here as a short home dog against the Thunder. Most are going to just expect Oklahoma City to bounce back after yesterday's loss to the Rockets, but I don't think that's going to be the case. The Thunder have to be a bit gassed here after yesterday's up-tempo matchup with Houston, which saw a combined 262 points scored. Dallas is the much more rested team, as they are in the midst of a 4-game homestand and haven't played back-to-back games since playing on 3/10 and 3/11. Dallas is also a much better team at home and the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road, where they are just 14-21 this season. Mavs are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after losing 2 of their last 3 games and 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 200 to 209.5. Take Dallas! |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
5* Elite Eight Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina - I really like the value here with the Tar Heels at basically a pick'em at against the Wildcats. Kentucky is coming off a tough game against UCLA, which they had revenge against from an earlier loss. North Carolina on the other hand cruised to a 11-point when over Butler. The Tar Heels had the much easier Sweet 16 matchup and they are the ones playing with revenge, as they fell 100-103 to Kentucky earlier this season. When North Carolina plays like they have been in the tournament, they are without a doubt in my mind the best team in the country. The Tar Heels have the speed and athleticism at the guard positions to limit Fox and Monk for the Wildcats and without those two there's not a lot for Kentucky to go with. Take North Carolina! |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga OVER 145 | Top | 59-83 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
5* Xavier/Gonzaga Elite Eight Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER I really like the value here on the total and for Xavier and Gonzaga to go over the mark here set by the books. We haven't seen the best of what the Bulldogs offense can bring to the table. They came out flat in their opener against South Dakota State and ended up scoring just 66 points, but note they had 40 in the 2nd half. They put up 79 on a very good Northwestern defense in the Round of 32, but then were held to just 61 by an even better West Virginia defense, which also took them out of their flow with the press. I look for Gonzaga's offense to explode here against the Musketeers, who are far from an elite defensive team. At the same, I look for Xavier's offense to stay hot and score enough here to push this well over the number. Take the OVER! |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on S Carolina/Baylor UNDER I really like the value here on the total and this one going well under the mark set by the books. South Carolina is an excellent defensive team. Yes, they gave up 81 points to Duke in the Round of 32, but they held the Blue Devils to a mere 41.5% shooting percentage. Duke plays at a much faster tempo than Baylor and has a lot better offensive players. Baylor has put up 91 and 82 in their first two tournament games, but that's a bit out of character for a team that only averages 73.5 and didn't score 80 or more in a single Big 12 game. Not to mention the Bears are a dominant defensive team as well, as they only give up 63.5 ppg. Add in the pressure and the fact that neither of these teams exactly no how to handle it and I look for both teams to struggle offensively. Take the UNDER 135! |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 NO LIMIT Top Play on West Virginia + The public is going to be all over No. 1 seed Gonzaga at this price, but I believe the books have set a nice trap here and know that the Mountaineers are the better team here. I've said this multiple times now. The Bulldogs are a really good team, I'm just not buying they would be a No. 1 seed if they played in a Power 5 conference. West Virginia is more than capable of taking down Gonzaga. The Mountaineers press attack is extremely difficult to prepare for, even when you have had a few days to prepare for it. Until you see it in action, you really don't know what to expect. West Virginia's doesn't have a superstar, but are strong from top to bottom. What also gets overlooked is that while it's know they force a lot of turnovers, people don't realize how well they take care of the basketball and attack the offensive glass. I'll take the points, but I'm calling for the Mountaineers to win outright. Take Gonzaga! |
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03-22-17 | Pacers v. Celtics UNDER 207 | Top | 100-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacers/Celtics UNDER I really like the value here with the total in tonight's matchup between the Pacers and Celtics. Boston has really been locking teams down defensively in the 2nd half of the season and it's resulted in 17 of their last 21 going UNDER the total posted by the books. Indiana has also been playing much better on defense of late, as they have allowed 100 or less in 9 of their last 10. The Pacers have seen the UNDER going 16-7 in their last 23. These two teams also have a tendency to play lower-scoring games than the books expect, as 7 of their last 10 meetings have finished UNDER the total. Take the UNDER! |
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03-21-17 | Spurs v. Wolves UNDER 205.5 | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Spurs/Wolves UNDER I'm expecting a much lower-scoring game than the books are anticipating when the Wolves and Spurs clash on ESPN tonight. San Antonio is one of the elite defensive teams in the league and come in allowing just 98.6 ppg. Minnesota's defense slipped during their 3-game road trip, but the T-Wolves have held the Wizards, Warriors and Clippers to 104 or less points in their last 3 home games. Keep in mind that these two teams also just recently played on 3/4 and combined for a mere 187 points. UNDER is 31-17 in the Spurs last 48 as a road favorite of 6-points or less and 13-3 in their lat 16 in the 2nd half against marginal losing teams (40% to 49%). UNDER is also 4-1 in the Wolves last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER! |
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03-20-17 | Nuggets +9 v. Rockets | Top | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nuggets + These two teams just played in Denver on Saturday and the Rockets pulled out a 109-105 win as a mere 2-point favorite. Now they return to Houston to play again and this time the Rockets are laying close to double-digits. I think the value here is clearly with the Nuggets, who I believe are going to be the more motivated team. Not only is Denver out for revenge, but they are trying to hold on to the No. 8 spot in the west. Houston on the other hand doesn't have a ton of motivation here. The Rockets are pretty much locked into the No. 3 seed in the west, as they are 5.5-games back of the Spurs and 5 games ahead of Utah with just 12 games to play. Not to mention This is the Rockets 3rd game in 4 nights and will get a full 3-days off after this contest. Take Denver! |
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03-19-17 | Wichita State v. Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
5* Round of 32 Game of the Year on Kentucky - I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a short favorite against the Shockers. Wichita State is a lot better than their No. 10 seed, but unfortunately for them the poor seeding by the committee has them playing an elite Kentucky team in the 2nd round. The Wildcats were once again the class of the SEC and once the games started meaning a little more this team really came alive. I just think Kentucky is head and shoulders above Wichita State in terms of talent in this one. The Shockers three toughest games in non-conference were against Louisville (lost by 10) Michigan State (lost by 5) and Oklahoma State (lost by 23). Note the game against the Spartans was back when Michigan State was struggling to compete against the elite teams. The Wildcats aree better than all of those teams and I expect them to win here by double-digits. Take Kentucky! |
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03-18-17 | St. Mary's v. Arizona -5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
5* Round of 32 Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Arizona - I really like the value here with the Wildcats laying what I feel is a very short number against the Gaels. Arizona made easy work of North Dakota in their opener, hanging 100 points on the Fighting Hawks. St. Mary's was impressive in their win over VCU, but lets not carried away with a win over a A-10 team. Arizona is on a whole different level and are playing their best basketball of the season right now. When the Gaels have had to face an elite team like the Wildcats (Gonzaga), they have struggled to keep it competitive and I see this being no different. All 3 of their losses to Gonzaga were by double-digits. Take Arizona! |
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03-17-17 | USC +6.5 v. SMU | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tourn First Round Game of the Year on USC + The Trojans pulled off a remarkable comeback in their play-in game on Wednesday against Providence and that's the kind of win that really gives a team the belief and confidence they go do something special. I also love that USC's best player, Boatwright, had a monster game with 24-points. You need your best players playing their best to pull off an upset like this. However, I'm not really sure it would be that big of an upset. USC has already beat SMU once this season. I know the Mustangs record is impressive and they come in on a huge winning streak, but outside of Cincinnati the AAC is a joke and even the Bearcats aren't an elite team, which is why SMU is 6 seed and not a 2 or 3. I look for this game to go right down to the wire and think there's a really good chance the Trojans win here outright. Take USC! |
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03-16-17 | Nevada v. Iowa State -6.5 | Top | 73-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tourn First Round NO LIMT Top Play on Iowa State - I really like the value here with the Cyclones laying single-digits against the Wolf Pack. Nevada gets a lot of love for their showing in the Mountain West, but I don't think it's justified. The Wolf Pack played a soft non-conference schedule. The best team the played was St Mary's and they lost by 18. Iowa State is arguably going to be the best team they have played this season and the Cyclones come into the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. They won the Big 12 tournament and finished 9-1 over their last 10. With so much attention going to Kansas, Baylor and West Virginia, a lot of people overlook how good this ISU team is. They have a ton of experience and one of the elite point guards in the country in senior Monte Morris. Iowa State can knock down the 3-point shot with the best of them and that's worth noting as Nevada is just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team that makes 8 or more 3-point shots per game. Cyclones are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 tournament games and 9-1 in their last 10 road games after winning 3 of their last 4. Take Iowa State! |
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03-15-17 | South Dakota v. Iowa -11.5 | Top | 75-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
5* First Round NIT Game of the Year on Iowa - I look for the Hawkeyes to have no problem cashing in against South Dakota. Iowa is young team that really showed a lot of positive signs towards the end of the season. They ended up getting beat badly in the Big Ten Tournament by Indiana and I think it's going to have them coming out with a chip on their shoulder at home against the Coyotes. Iowa was a much better team at home and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawkeyes ended up winning the NIT. This isn't just a play on Iowa. South Dakota is in a brutal spot here having to try to emotionally get up for this game after coming so close to the NCAA Tournament. The Coyotes blew a double-digit half-time lead and lost on a last second shot to in-state rival South Dakota State in the Summit League Championship Game. Even if South Dakota State came in 100% locked in, I still think they would struggle to keep this close. Note they lost by 27 to Houston, 12 to Nebraska and by 37 to Gonzaga in non-conference play. Take Iowa! |
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03-14-17 | Pacers v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Knicks + New York is showing great value here as a short home favorite against the Pacers. Indiana is just 11-22 on the road and while the Knicks have been a disappointment they shouldn't be a dog here. The Pacers come in off a 102-98 home win over the Heat, which actually only adds more value to the Knicks, as Indiana is a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games after a win. Pacers are also a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. New York's last game was against the Nets and the Knicks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games after playing a division opponent in their previous game. Take New York! |
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03-13-17 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 199.5 | Top | 93-113 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf Total of the Month on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle tonight between the Bucks and Grizzlies. I know Memphis has slumped on the defensive side of the ball of late, but they were better in their last home game against the Hawks. With the losing streak at 5 now, I'm expecting a max effort here from the Grizzlies and it starts with the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee will be more than willing to grind it out with Memphis, as the Bucks have been sensational on the defensive side of the ball of late. Milwaukee has held each of their last 5 opponents under 98 points and will face a Memphis offense that managed just 90 points on 37.8% shooting in their last game. UNDER is 15-6 in the Grizzlies last 21 as a home favorite, 17-5 in their last 22 when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 7-1 in their last 8 when facing a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! |
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03-12-17 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 71-56 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Wisconsin - I really like the value here with the Badgers at basically a pick'em here against the Wolverines. Michigan is a great story with what they have done, but Wisconsin is playing their best basketball when it matters the most and are the much more rested team here. Michigan has done an amazing job riding the adrenaline of getting to the title game, but now that they have made it, I look for them to come out a bit flat. After that brutal stretch that saw them lose 5 of 6 late in the season, Wisconsin knows they desperately need to keep the momentum going if they want to make a run in the NCAA tournament. Badgers have rolled in each of their 2 games in the Big Ten tournament and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after back-to-back wins by 10 or more. Take Wisconsin! Â |
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03-11-17 | Wizards v. Blazers -4 | Top | 125-124 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Blazers - I really like the value here with the Blazers as a relatively short home favorite against the Wizards. This is a big time flat spot for Washington, who will be playing on no rest after an overtime win last night against the Kings. A game that saw both Wall and Beal log over 40 minutes. Note this is also the Wizards 4th game in 5 nights. I just don't see the Wizards having the energy to match the Blazers in this one. Portland has really been playing well of late. The Blazers enter having won 4 straight. Washington is just 14-30 ATS in their last 54 after 2 or more consecutive road wins and the Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against  a team that's won more than 60% of their games Take Portland! |
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03-10-17 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -6 | Top | 72-62 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Month on Florida - I really like the Gators here against the Commodores. Kentucky is the team that gets all the hype, but Florida might just be the best team in the SEC. I know Vanderbilt has been playing better of late and just recently beat the Gators at home, I just think that adds more fuel to the fire for Florida in this one. I also think it has the line lower than what it should be. The thing that gets overlooked here is the fact that Florida has the big edge in rest, having not played yesterday. Gators are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a road loss by 3 points or less, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a neutral site favorite. Vandy is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a dog. Take Florida! |
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03-09-17 | Rutgers v. Northwestern -7 | Top | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* Big 10 Tournament Game of the Month on Northwestern - I really like the value here with the Wildcats laying what I feel is a very short number against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers was able to pull off the big upset win over Ohio State yesterday, but I just don't see this team being able to bring that same intensity on no rest against what I believe is going to be an extremely motivated Northwestern team that wants to get some momentum going into the tournament. Rutgers is a mere 17-41-1 ATS in their last 59 after a game where they covered the spread, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after losing 15 or more of their last 20. Wildcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week and 11-2 in their last 13 road games after failing to cover the spread last time out. Take Northwestern! |
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03-09-17 | Duke v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
5* ACC Tournament Game of the Month on Louisville - I really like the value here with the Cardinals as a short favorite against the Blue Devils. Louisville has a big advantage here in rest, as this is their first game of the tournament, while Duke had to play yesterday. I also think the Cardinals are the better team. I know the Blue Devils are playing better of late, but there's something to be said about the Cardinals 9-point win over Duke earlier this season. Note that Duke is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after a game where they covered the spread, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as a dog of 6.5 or less points and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games. Take Louisville! |
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03-08-17 | Hornets v. Heat -4 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast Game of the Month on Heat - I really like the value here with the Heat as a short home favorite against division rival Charlotte. Miami continues to play like a completely different team that opened the season looking like one of the worst teams in the league. The books are slower to adjust on bad teams, which is evident by the fact that Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Most will assume they will be in line for a letdown off back-to-back wins over the Cavs, but I don't believe it. The Hornets are a team that are right on their heels in the east playoff race and Miami will be out for double-revenge having lost each of the two meetings this season. The Hornets have won 3 of their last 4, but it's more of the schedule than them turning things around. Charlotte is just 1-8 ATS this season after covering the spread in each of their last 2 games, while the Heat are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 off an upset win and 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when revenging a same season loss. Take Miami! |
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03-07-17 | Blazers v. Thunder -6 | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder - I like OKC to bounce back with a statement win at home against the Blazers tonight. The Thunder enter this contest off 3 straight losses and the last was an embarrassing 89-104 defeat at Dallas on Sunday. On top of that, Oklahoma City is going to be out for revenge here from a 109-114 loss at Portland back on 3/2. Needless to say the Thunder are going to bring their "A" game in this one. As for the Blazers, they have won their last two, but both were at home and this is a team that is just 10-22 on the road. Note that OKC is a dominant 23-8 at home. Thunder are also 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games, 12-1 ATS in their last 13 after losing 3 of their last 4 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 revenging a same season loss. Blazers are 6-16 ATS as a road dog this season and 3-11 when listed as a road dog of 6 or less. Take Oklahoma City! |
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03-06-17 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 222 | Top | 110-112 | Push | 0 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rockets/Spurs UNDER I'm taking the Spurs and Rockets to finish below the high total set here by the books. San Antonio can be a dominant defensive team when they want to and are capable of slowing down the Rockets. In fact, they have held Houston to 100 points or fewer in 9 straight meetings between the two clubs. That includes two games this year, which the two teams combined for 206 and 202 points respectively. I expect a similar outcome here. UNDER is 12-3 in the Rockets last 15 road games after scoring 105 or more points in 4 straight games, 11-4 in their last 15 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UNDER is also 8-2 in the Spurs last 10 when playing on 1 day of rest, 10-1 in their last 11 off a win and 5-1 in their last 6 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER! |
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03-05-17 | Purdue v. Northwestern +4 | Top | 69-65 | Push | 0 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Northwestern + I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a home dog against the Boilermakers. Northwestern comes in off a thrilling 67-65 home win over Michigan and that victory was a big relief for the Wildcats, as it all but punched their ticket to the big dance. I look for them to come out relaxed and motivated here to build off that win in their home finale. Purdue on the other hand is in a tough spot. Not a lot to play for here, as the Boilermakers already have the Big 10 regular season title locked up. I think they struggle to match the intensity of the Wildcats in this one. Take Northwestern! |
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03-04-17 | Duke v. North Carolina -6.5 | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
5* Duke/UNC ACC Game of the Month on North Carolina - I like the Tar Heels to not only get their revenge from that earlier loss at Duke, but to do so in blowout fashion. While Duke has been playing better of late, I still North Carolina is the much better team and playing at home is a massive edge here. The Tar Heels are a perfect 14-0 at home this season and have double-digit wins over the likes of Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse and FSU in conference play. I don't think it will be any different against the Blue Devils. Duke is just 2-8 ATS this season when they come in having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, while the Tar Heels are 10-3 ATS at home, 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 as a favorite of 7 to 12.5 points and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite in that range. Take North Carolina! |
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03-03-17 | Spurs -6 v. Pelicans | Top | 101-98 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Southwest Game of the Month on Spurs - I really like the Spurs to go into New Orleans and lay a beating on the Pelicans tonight. New Orleans really struggled in their first 3 games with Cousins and it's just going to take some time for them to adjust. It was pretty evident how much they are off when Cousins sat our their last game because of a suspension and the Pelicans rolled to a 109-86 win. I do think the duo of Davis and Cousins is going to work, but it's going to take weeks before they get comfortable with each other. The Spurs aren't the team you want to face when you are trying to find your way, especially with San Antonio likely coming out with a chip on their shoulder after a poor showing at home in a 1-point win over the Pacers. The Spurs also know a thing or two about winning away from home, as they are 26-7 on the road this season, which includes a 20-12 ATS mark. Take San Antonio! |
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03-02-17 | Warriors v. Bulls +8 | Top | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls + I really like the value here with the Bulls as a pretty big dog at home against the Warriors. We know we are going to get Chicago's best effort here in a nationally televised game against the team everyone wants to beat in Golden State. As for the Warriors, they are going to have to adjust to life without Durant for the rest of the regular season and I believe it's a bigger loss than people thing, as they just don't have the depth they did a year ago. Durant was also playing at a ridiculous level. Not to mention Curry has really been struggling of late. The Bulls are just 30-30 overall, but this team has found a way to play their best against the better teams. Chicago also will be out for revenge from a 21 point loss at Golden State less than a month ago. Bulls are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games off a loss by 10 or more and the Warriors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Chicago! |
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03-01-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Celtics + I really like the value here with Boston at basically a pick'em at home against the Cavaliers. I think we saw just how important this game is to the Celtics with their lackluster performance in Monday's 98-114 home loss to the Hawks. Boston was clearly looking ahead to this matchup and I expect the Celtics and their fans to treat this like a playoff game. Cleveland won't lie down, but I just think they are going to struggle to match the intensity of Boston and let's not forget they are still missing a key piece to the puzzle in Kevin Love. Cavs are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Cleveland is also a miserable 0-8 ATS this season when playing a road game after playing their previous 2 games at home. Take Boston! |
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02-28-17 | DePaul v. Providence -11 | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Providence - The fact that the Friars lost 63-64 at DePaul earlier this season will have some questioning why Providence is such a big favorite here, but I think it's more than warranted. The Friars are playing their best basketball of the season right now, as they come in having won 4 straight over the likes of Butler, Xavier, Creighton and Marquette. Providence isn't going to over look DePaul given the first meeting and I expect them to get their revenge in blowout fashion. The Friars are a 14-3 at home this season, compared to 4-8 on the road, so the road loss to DePaul isn't a huge shocker. On the flip side of this, DePaul is 1-11 on the road, where they are getting outscored by nearly 14.5 ppg. Coming off a crushing 79-82 home loss to Seton Hall, I just don't see them being all that interested in a meaningless game. DePaul is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games off a home game and 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games off a loss. Friars are 9-2 ATS when revenging a road loss. Take Providence! |
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02-27-17 | Wolves v. Kings +5 | Top | 102-88 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Kings + Most just assume the Kings were throwing in the towel after they traded away Cousins, but what they forget is that for as good as Cousins was, he had almost the same negative effect on the team with his attitude, which is why Sacramento continued to be one of the worst teams in the league. I think the Kings are going to surprise some people down the stretch and let's not forget they won their first game at home without Cousins 116-100 over the Nuggets as a 6.5-point dog. The Timberwolves are in a horrible spot here, as they get read to play their 3rd game in 4 nights after an extremely up-tempo game at Houston that saw 272 combined points in a 130-142 defeat. I just don't see Minnesota being locked in for this one and that makes the Kings great value here as a decently priced home dog vs a T-Wolves squad that is 8-18 on the road this season. Minnesota is 14-40 ATS in their last 56 after scoring 120 or more points in their previous game and 13-26 ATS in their last 39 off a road loss by 10 or more. Kings are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home and 4-1-1 ATS last 6 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Sacramento! |
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02-26-17 | Butler v. Xavier +2 | Top | 88-79 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Xavier + I really like the value here with the Musketeers as a home dog against the Bulldogs. Xavier comes in having lost 4 straight, which has them undervalued. It started with a home loss to Villanova, which is nothing to be ashamed about and then they lost 3 straight on the road. What a lot will overlook is they played a number of those with Bluiett. He returned in their last game at Seton Hall and it was their best showing in weeks. I look for them to snap out of their funk at home against Butler, who is poised for a bit of a letdown here after that huge road upset over Villanova. Musketeers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as a home underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after playing 3 straight on the road. Butler is only 1-4 ATS last 5 as a favorite and 0-4 ATS last 4 off a cover. Take Xavier! |
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02-25-17 | Kansas v. Texas +8.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas + I really like the value here with the Longhorns as a decently priced home dog against the Jayhawks. Texas was competitive in a 12-point loss at KU earlier this season and are going to be 100% locked in for revenge against the best the Big 12 has to offer. Last time out the Jayhawks secured yet another Big 12 title and that's a big relief for the players, as no one wants to be the ones who are responsible for stopping the streak. I believe that has Kansas primed for a letdown here on the road against a team they know they are better than. Kansas covered last time out and that's a good thing, as they are just 1-8 ATS this season after covering the number in their last game. Longhorns on the other hand are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when revenging a road loss. Take Texas! |
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02-24-17 | Grizzlies v. Pacers +1 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Non Conference Game of the Month on Pacers + I really like the value here with Indiana at basically a pick'em at home against the Grizzlies. The Pacers limped into the All-Star break with a 6-game losing streak and then had their best player rumored in multiple trades prior to yesterday's trade deadline. Some might view this as a negative, but I believe it's going to unite this team and have them playing inspired the rest of the way. The biggest thing here is the Pacers just aren't getting enough respect for playing at home, where they are 20-10 SU on the season. Memphis does come in with a 16-13 road record, but they are just 11-22 ATS in their last 33 road games against a team with a wining record and a mere 3-16 ATS in road games against a marginal winning team like the Pacers with a win percentage between 51% to 60%. Take Indiana! |
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02-23-17 | Blazers v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Blazers/Magic OVER I really like the value we are getting here on the total in tonight's matchup between the Blazers and Magic. I have this one easily eclipsing the 220 mark and potentially getting to 230. I just don't see either of these teams being all that motivated to play defense coming out of the break, especially given how disappointing a season it's been for both of these teams. On top of that, defense has been a major problem for both teams, as each ranks in the bottom 8 in defensive efficiency. Not to mention both teams have had some big moving pieces in trades. OVER is 11-2 in the Magic's last 13 home games against a team from the Northwest division and 11-3 in the Blazers last 14 road games after going under the total in their previous game. Take the OVER! |
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02-22-17 | Connecticut +7.5 v. Houston | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
5* American Athletic Game of the Month on Connecticut + I really like the value here with the Huskies as a good sized dog against the Cougars. UConn comes in playing the best basketball of the season, as they have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall. That includes outright wins at UCF and Temple. Houston has also been playing well but come in off a crushing 66-76 home loss to SMU, which will be tough to bounce back from. The Huskies also will be coming out with a chip on their shoulder, as the Cougars embarrassed them 62-46 on their home floor earlier this season. Note that came with UConn missing it's best player in Jalen Adams, who is averaging a team-high 14.9 ppg and 6.6 apg. Huskies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games off an upset win as an underdog and 34-14 ATS in their last 48 after a win by 3 points or less. Take Connecticut! |
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02-21-17 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -4.5 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia Tech - I like the value here with the Yellow Jackets at home against the Wolfpack. NC State is a program that's a mess right now. Their head coach has been fired but is finishing up the season with the team. NC State has lost 7 straight and really haven't been competitive. In their last 4 games they have lost by 9 at home to Notre Dame, 24 at home to UNC, 30 at Wake Forest and 24 at Florida State. Georgia Tech beat the Wolfpack 86-76 on the road back on 1/15 when NC State hadn't thrown in the towel. I could see NC State getting up for Saturday's home finale against Virginia, but not here on the road in a meaningless game. The Wolfpack are a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take Georgia Tech! |
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02-20-17 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia -9.5 | Top | 54-48 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Virginia - I like the Cavaliers to put away the Hurricanes in blowout fashion tonight. Virginia is a pissed off bunch after a rare 3-game losing streak. It started with them blowing a big lead on the road against in-state rival Virginia Tech. Then they had to play two elite teams in Duke and North Carolina in a span of just 4 days. The most recent was an embarrassing 24-point loss on the road to the Tar Heels. Virginia is 3-1 ATS this season off a road loss and 8-3 ATS in this same spot over the last 3 years. Miami comes in having really played well at home in their last two games, but are just 1-3 ATS this season off back-to-back home wins, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 65 or less points in 2 straight games and 0-4 when playing their 3rd game in a week span. Take Virginia! |
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02-19-17 | Syracuse v. Georgia Tech UNDER 136 | Top | 65-71 | Push | 0 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Syracuse/Georgia Tech UNDER I think the books have set the total too high here. The UNDER has gone 8-3 in Georgia Tech home games and is 5-1 in their 6 conference home games. It's because the style of play that the Yellow Jackets play. They are a limited offensive team, so they have to slow the pace down and rely on their defense to be competitive. They are doing just that, scoring only 67.8 ppg and allowing just 61.1 ppg at home. UNDER is 14-3 in the Yellow Jackets last 17 home games when playing their 2nd game in a week, 15-4 in their last 19 home games off a conference loss and 11-2 in their last 13 home games as an underdog and 7-0 in their last 7 as a home dog of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! |
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02-18-17 | Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 135.5 | Top | 41-65 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
5* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia/North Carolina OVER I think the books have set the total way too low for tonight's big ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia. The Cavaliers are known for being a dominant defensive team, but they don't often go up against an offensive like the Tar Heels. North Carolina is averaging 90.6 ppg at home. Virginia is more than capable of keeping pace and their defense isn't near as strong on the road as it is at home. OVER is 16-4 in the Tar Heels last 20 home games with a total of 130 to 139.5, 14-5 in their last 19 after scoring75 or more in 4 straight games and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 against elite defensive teams that are allowing 57 or less points/game. Take the OVER! |
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02-17-17 | Valparaiso v. Oakland | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Valparaiso I really like the value here with the Crusaders at basically a pick'em on the road against the Golden Grizzlies. This is a big revenge spot for Valparaiso, who were upset at home by Oakland 78-66 back in early January. Since that loss the Crusaders have gone 10-1 and are sitting at 11-2 in the Horizon. With a win here they can pretty much lock up the regular season title (Oakland is 2nd at 9-4). Valparaiso came out flat in that first meeting with Oakland. They shot just 36.2% from the field, while allowing the Grizzlies to connect on 47% of their attempts. That's uncharacteristic for the Crusaders on both sides of the ball. Valpo is shooting 46% from the field in Horizon play, while limiting conference opponents to just 65 ppg on 38.1% shooting. It's also worth noting that this is not the same Oakland team as the first meeting. The Grizzlies are without a key contributor in Stevie Clark. He was a big factor against the Crusaders, scoring 16 points with a team-high 5 assists. I believe his loss isn't getting enough respect here, due to Oakland coming in having won 4 straight, but note that all 4 of those wins came against the bottom 4 team in the conference. Take Valparaiso! |
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02-16-17 | San Francisco +21.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 61-96 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
5* NCAAB West Coast Game of the Month on San Francisco + Betting against Gonzaga this season hasn't been a profitable move, but I just think this spot has created too much value on San Francisco to pass up. The Dons have a winning record in the WCC and are one of the few teams to keep it respectable against Gonzaga this season, losing by just 15 points in the first meeting. Note that was with Gonzaga shooting a ridiculous 61% from the field. The even bigger key here is that this is an ideal situation to fade the Bulldogs. Gonzaga just played their biggest game in quite some time last Saturday at St. Mary's, which most were calling their last chance at having their perfect record broken. The Bulldogs prevailed 74-64 and it's only human nature for them to have a letdown here. On the flip side of this, San Francisco is going to treat this like it's their Super Bowl. Dons did lose at home last time out and that's worth noting as they are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games off a home conference loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a home loss by 10 or more points. Take San Francisco! |
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02-15-17 | Xavier v. Providence -3 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big East Game of the Month on Providence - I really like this spot for Providence at home against the Musketeers. Xavier lost point guard Edmond Summer to a season ending injury at the end of January and now are expected to be without Trevon Bluiett tonight against the Friars. That's the Musketeer's two best players not available. That's just too much to overcome on the road against a hungry Providence team that has been playing much better of late. While the Friars are just 4-4 in their last 8, they are 7-1 against the spread during this stretch. They also come in with a 12-3 record at home and fresh off an impressive 71-65 home win over Butler as 3-point dog. I don't see Providence overlooking Xavier given the injury situation, as they will be out for revenge from an ugly 56-82 loss at Xavier back on 12/28. Note that Bluiett and Summer combined for 35 points 11 assists and 13 rebounds. Friars are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a road loss. Take Providence! |
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02-14-17 | Raptors v. Bulls OVER 205 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bulls OVER There's a lot of moving parts going on around this game, as the Raptors just made a trade for Serge Ibaka and the Bulls are expected to be without starters Wade and Butler, as well as reserves Mirotic and Zipser. All of this has this game feeling a bit like an exhibition game and I just don't see either team playing much defense in this one. Chicago certainly hasn't been playing any of late. The Bulls have allowed 100 or more points in 9 straight games and given up 115 or more in each of their last 3. Given what Chicago has to work with and the Raptors ability to light it up offensively (109.1 ppg), I think Toronto is going to continue that streak. Not having Butler and Wade might seem like a huge loss for Chicago's offense, but it allows them to play at a little faster pace and gets some more 3-point shooters on the floor. You also have to take into consideration that Toronto will have a difficult time taking the Bulls seriously without their star players, so it's unlikely they are coming into this one looking to lock down defensively. OVER is 8-0 in the Bulls last 8 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
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02-13-17 | Magic v. Heat OVER 207.5 | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast Game of the Month on Magic/Heat OVER I'm expecting a shootout in Miami when the Heat host the Magic tonight. Miami had their 13-game winning streak snapped in a 109-117 loss at Philadelphia on Saturday. It's exactly difficult to keep the momentum going from a long winning streak after it's snapped. On top of that, the Heat are returning home from a 4-game road trip. I just don't see the effort being their on the defensive side of the ball, especially against a bad team like the Magic. Offensively the Heat should be able to continue to their recent surge. Miami has scored 100+ points in 12 straight games and are facing a Orlando defense that has allowed 112 or more in each of their last 4 and are giving up 109 ppg on the road this season. OVER is 8-1 in the Magic's last 9 road games after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 12-4 in their last 16 after giving up 60+ points at the half of their last game. Take the OVER! |
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02-12-17 | Northern Iowa +1.5 v. Missouri State | Top | 55-52 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Northern Iowa +1.5 I really like the value here with the Panthers at basically a pick'em on the road against Missouri State. UNI is playing their best basketball of the season right now. After starting out 0-5 in conference play, the Panthers have won 7 of 8. They will be out for revenge here from a 4-point loss at home to the Bears back in UNI's dreadful start to the MVC. Note that Missouri State only won by 4 points, despite jumping out to a 32-8 lead in the 1st half, which included a 19-0 run. The Bears win over UNI came during a 6-1 stretch. This time they enter having lost 4 of their last 5 and fresh off a ugly 18-point loss at Wichita State. Missouri State is only 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games after going over the total in their previous game and 4-12 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a day stretch. Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after allowing 65 or less points in 5 straight games. Take UNI! |
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02-11-17 | Ohio State v. Maryland -7 | Top | 77-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
5* Big Ten Game of the Month on Maryland - This might seem like a big number for the Terrapins to be laying at home against an Ohio State team that has won 2 straight, but I really like this spot for Maryland and for them to win here in a blowout. We know we are going to get a max effort here from the Terrapins, as they come in off a back-to-back losses. The bigger key here is that Ohio State will be without the services of point guard JaQuan Lyle. That's a big time loss as Lyle is 3rd in scoring at 11.4 ppg and leads the team with a solid 5.0 apg. Losing a point guard is tough to overcome, especially on the road. I think it's even more of a problem for a team like the Buckeyes who aren't a great offensive team to start with. Ohio State is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games on Saturday and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after winning 2 of their last 3 games. Terrapins are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games off an upset loss as a favorite. Take Maryland! |
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02-10-17 | Pacers v. Wizards -5 | Top | 107-112 | Push | 0 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit Heavy Hitter Top Play on Wizards - I like the value here with the Wizards laying a relatively short number at home against the Pacers. Washington was on an absolute roll before losing in OT to the Cavs at home. No surprise, they didn't play their best game after that crushing loss, but they still managed to win at Brooklyn. I look for Washington to return to form here against the Pacers, who are primed for a letdown after a crushing 117-132 loss at home to Cleveland, which snapped their 7-game winning streak. Indiana hasn't exactly been great on the road this season, as the Pacers are just 9-16 away from home. Washington on the other hand has been lights out at home. They had won 17 straight prior to the loss to the Cavs and are 22-7 at home on the season. Pacers are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 110 or more in their previous game, while the Wizards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a home favorite of 6 or less. Take Washington! |
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