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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-07-19 | SMU +13.5 v. Houston | Top | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU + I really like the value here with the Mustangs as a big road dog against the Cougars. There's no denying that Houston is one of the elite teams in the AAC and in the country. The Cougars have been a money-making machine for their backers, going 18-9 ATS. I just think with Houston coming off an upset loss at home to UCF the books have drastically inflated the number here knowing the public will be itching to back the Cougars off a loss. Keep in mind that when these two teams played at SMU back in January the Mustangs were actually a 1-point favorite, which means the Cougars would have been around a 5-6 point home favorite at that time. The line here is more than double that. SMU has been great when playing with revenge, especially if the most recent was a lopsided loss. Mustangs are 26-9 ATS last 35 road games revenging a loss of 10 or more. Take SMU! |
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03-06-19 | Ohio State v. Northwestern | Top | 50-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Northwestern pk This line really says it all. Northwestern is a pick'em at home, despite the fact that they come into this game having lost 10 straight overall and are just 1-8-1 ATS during this stretch. The key here is the Wildcats haven't been nearly as bad as their record would indicate during this run. THey have really been competitive in all but a couple games during this run. They will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Ohio State and I'm confident they get it. Wildcats have covered 5 of 7 at home against the Buckeyes and Ohio State is a mere 5-11 ATS last 16 conference games and just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Northwestern! |
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03-05-19 | Illinois-Chicago +3.5 v. Green Bay | Top | 77-82 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Horizon GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois-Chicago + Love the value here with the Flames as a dog against Green Bay in Tuesday's quarterfinal action of the Horizon Tournament. Illinois-Chicago will be out for double-revenge here after losing two close games to the Phoenix in the regular-season. The Flames lost by just 5 at Wisconsin Green Bay in the first meeting and then by just 1 at home in the rematch. Illinois-Chicago has gone an impressive 34-15 ATS in their last 49 games played in the month of March. Phoenix are just 52-76 ATS last 128 after covering 4 or more of their last 6 games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 40 or more points in the 1st half in 2 straight games. Take Illinois-Chicago! |
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03-04-19 | Weber State v. Idaho State +4 | Top | 74-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Sky GAME OF THE MONTH on Idaho State + Love the value here with the Bengals as a small home dog against the Wildcats. Idaho State comes in having lost 5 straight and are getting zero respect from the books because of it. Weber State is not playing like a team that should be laying points on the road. The Wildcats have lost each of their last 2 and 3 of 4 overall. Weber State was a 4.5-point dog at North Colorado in their last game and got annihilated 85-61. Wildcats are just 1-6 ATS last 7 after playing their previous game as a dog. Idaho State is also 4-2 ATS this season when revenging a loss of 10 or more and 6-1 ATS last 7 at home with a total of 155 to 159.5. Take Idaho State! |
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03-03-19 | Hawks v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 123-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls - Chicago defeated the Hawks 168-161 in 4OT on Friday at Atlanta and I see no reason why they won't make easy work of them on their home floor this afternoon. Bulls have been playing some really good basketball of late. Chicago is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games. They have covered each of their last 4 games against a team with a losing record and are 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with the Hawks. Atlanta is a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 2 seasons in the month of March and are just 1-5 ATS last 6 vs an opponent from the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS last 5 after giving up 125 or more points in their previous game. Take Chicago! |
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03-02-19 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas UNDER 148 | Top | 73-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAB SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss/Arkansas UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Saturday's SEC clash between the Rebels and Razorbacks. The UNDER has been the smart play in recent games for both of these teams. Ole Miss has gone UNDER the total in 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall. Arkansas has gone UNDER the total in 9 of their last 12. These two teams played earlier this season and combined for 151, but that was with both teams shooting over 80% from the free throw line and the Rebels score 84 on 48.4% shooting. Arkansas only managed 67 on 40%. Razorbacks offense just hasn't been great of late, but the defensive effort should be a lot better at home. Ole Miss is no where close to the same offensive team on the road. UNDER is 10-3 in the Rebels last 13 conference games and 8-2 in their last 10 games with a total in the 150's. UNDER is also 6-1 in Arkansas' last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-3 in their last 11 conference games. Take the UNDER! |
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03-01-19 | Clippers v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
5* NBA Pacific Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Kings - Love the value here with Sacramento at basically a pick'em at home against the Clippers. The Kings have been one of the best bets in the NBA for a while now. Sacramento is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games and the books are simply slow to adjust because of how bad this team has been in previous years. I believe a big reason the Kings are showing such great value here is because they come in having lost 4 of their last 5. The thing is, 3 of the 4 losses came on the road against the likes of the Nuggets, Warriors and Timberwolves. The other was a 1-point loss at home to the Bucks. Kings have been really good at home and it's not just of late. Sacramento is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games. They are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after losing 3 of their last 4. They also have gone a dominant 8-1 ATS last 9 as a home favorite. Take Sacramento! |
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02-28-19 | Tulane +13.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane + I really like the value here with the Green Wave as a big road dog against the Golden Hurricane. Tulane is winless in league play at 0-13 and are just 1-12 on the road. The betting public will be running to the ticket window to take Tulsa and the books have adjusted accordingly. Tulsa has been overvalued a lot here of late, as they come in having failed to cover each of their last 3. They may also be without their leading scorer for this game, as DaQuan Jeffries (13.7 ppg) is questionable with a concussion. That would be a massive blow, as there's only 2 other players on the team averaging double-figures. Adding to this is a great system in play favoring the Green Wave. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that allowed 80 or more points in their last game are 84-41 (67%) ATS when facing a team that has failed to reach 30 points in the 1st half in each of their last 2 games. Take Tulane! |
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02-26-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech + I absolutely love the value here with the Hokies as a decently priced home dog against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to pull out a 75-65 win and cover as a 5-point road favorite at Syracuse on Saturday without Zion Williamson, but I think it's a bit misleading, as the Orange shot a miserable 34.3% from the field. Williamson won't be available against the Hokies and I just think it's asking a lot for the Blue Devils to win back-to-back on the road without their best player. Keep in mind Duke only shot 44.1% from the field in the win over Syracuse and that was after they shot a miserable 34.7% against UNC at home when Zion went down in the first minute of the game. Hokies have really been playing strong defense and we know we are going to get everything they have on that side of the ball in this one. I not only think it allows them to keep it within the number, but to win this game outright. Take Virginia Tech! |
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02-25-19 | Bucks v. Bulls +11 | Top | 117-106 | Push | 0 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Div GAME OF THE MONTH on Bulls + Easy play here on the Bulls at home against the Bucks. Chicago comes in playing some of their best basketball of the season, as they have won 3 straight. The most recent being a 126-116 win at home over the Celtics as a 10-point underdog. The game before that they won at Orlando as a 8-point dog. Not only are the Bulls playing well, but the Bucks will be playing this one without Giannis Antetokounmpo, as well as George Hill. Last time Antetokounmpo sat out Milwaukee got managed just 83 points on 33% shooting in a 20-point home loss to the Magic. While Jimmy and his long-term clients got the Bulls as a double-digit dog, this play is still recommended at the current line. Take Chicago! |
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02-23-19 | Georgia Tech +7.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 65-80 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech + The Yellow Jackets snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out in a 73-65 win at home over Pitt. I get that Georgia Tech is one of the worst teams in the ACC, but their 4-wins in conference are more than what Miami has. There's simply no reason for the Hurricanes to be laying this kind of number against any team in the conference, even at home. Time after time when Miami has got matched up with a poor team they have been way overvalued and that's evident by the Hurricanes 2-9 ATS record in their last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Miami is also a mere 4-12 ATS last 16 conference home games. Georgia Tech on the flip side of this is a team that is routinely undervalued on the road. Yellow Jackets are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on the road in games played on Saturday (7-2 ATS last 9 on the road overall). They are also 9-3 ATS 12 vs a team with a losing record. Take Georgia Tech! |
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02-22-19 | Jazz +4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 147-148 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz + I love the value here with Utah, as I fully expect the Jazz to go into OKC and upset the Thunder. I just think we are going to see Utah really come out in this game with a chip on their shoulder. These two have already played twice this season and the Thunder have won both meetings, so revenge is definitely in play for the Jazz. I'm not saying OKC isn't going to show up, but there's no doubt this one doesn't mean as much to them. Keep in mind we saw this team come out extremely flat in their final game before the break, losing by 9 and giving up 131 points at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite. Fading OKC in division games has been a wise move, as the Thunder are just 10-21 (32%) ATS over the last 2 seasons. Jazz are also a dominant 15-5 ATS on the road in the 2nd half of the season when facing a team that is outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg and 13-2 ATS on the road in the 2nd half vs teams who average 110+ points/game. Take Utah! |
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02-21-19 | James Madison +11.5 v. Northeastern | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Small Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison + This is way too many points for the Dukes to be catching on the road against the Huskies. Northeastern is simply overvalued right now due to the fact that they come in having gone 9-2 over their last 11 games. They started out this run by going 7-1 ATS, but the books have adjusted big time and they come in having failed to cover 3 straight, including a mere 12-point win as a 17-point home favorite over Elon. These two teams played once already at James Madison and the Dukes held their own in a 10-point loss. James Madison comes in off back-to-back wins and are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. They have shot 51% or better in all 3 of those covers and Northeastern has allowed Charleston to shoot 48% and UNC-Wilmington to hit 49% in their last 2 games. Dukes have also covered 20 of their last 27 on the road against teams like the Huskies who are good 3-point shooting teams (average 8 or more made 3-pointers/game). The road team is also a dominant 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in the series. Take James Madison! |
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02-16-19 | William & Mary -4 v. Elon | Top | 84-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on William & Mary - I absolutely love the value here with the Tribe as a small road favorite against the Phoenix. Elon is coming into this game off a 12-point loss at Northeastern, but did manage to cover the massive 17-point spread. That right there is enough reason to back William & Mary, as the Phoenix are a miserable 4-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a game where they covered. Elon is also just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 when listed as an underdog and 2-9 ATS in the month of February. The reason the Phoenix are getting respect from the books is because they beat William & Mary earlier this season. However, that's another big positive for us, as the Tribe are a dominant 17-5 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a loss and 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss as a favorite. Take William & Mary! |
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02-15-19 | Marist +4 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 63-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Metro Atlantic Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Marist + I love the value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Bobcats. Marist comes in off back-to-back wins and have covered 4 of their last 5, including a 78-71 win at Canisius as a 4-point dog. These two teams played earlier in the season and Quinnipiac won by 14-points. However, Marist shot 54% from the field and were only down 2-points at the half. They basically lost the game at the free throw line, where they went 7 of 14. Red Foxes are 34-18 ATS last 52 off a home win by 10 or more and the underdog is 8-3 ATS last 11 in the series. Bobcats are also just 2-12 ATS last 14 at home vs a marginal losing team (win percent 40% to 49%) and 0-8 ATS last 8 at home vs teams who attempt 21 or more 3-points at least 15+ games into the season. Take Marist! |
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02-14-19 | Drexel +1 v. James Madison | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Drexel + Love the value here with Drexel as a pick'em on the road against James Madison. These two teams already played once this season and the Dragons won 73-68 at home. The Dukes were very lucky to lose by just 5. Drexel shot a miserable 20% from 3-point range (3-15). Expect much better shooting this time around, as the Dragons are coming off a game against Charleston where they shot 54% from the field for the game. Drexel has also covered each of their last 7 games and are 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Adding to all this is a great system in play favoring a fade of the Dukes. In games involving two marginal losing teams (winning 40% to 49%) the home team is a mere 28-58 ATS if they have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games. That's a 67% system in favor of the Dragons. Take Drexel! |
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02-11-19 | Clippers v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 120-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves - I really like this spot for Minnesota as a small home favorite. This has to feel like a must-win for the Timberwolves, who have lost 4 straight and are now 5-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. The team sitting in 8th is the Clippers, which should only add that much more motivation here. As for LAC, they made it clear they are more focused on the future than the present with the deals they made at the trade deadline. I get they come in off a 123-112 upset win at Boston as a 11.5-point dog, but they trailed by 28 (trailed 43-20 after 1st quarter) and benefited from the Celtics losing All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving to injury in the 2nd quarter. Each of their last 3 wins have come with them trailing by at least 20. They followed up each of the last two rallies with losses by 19 or more. Part of Minnesota's struggles is they have had their top 3 point guards out of the lineup. Jeff Teague is back and should make a bigger contribution in his second game back and there's a chance Derrick Rose returns after practicing on Sunday. Take Minnesota! |
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02-09-19 | Kansas State v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Baylor - Love the value here with Baylor at basically a pick'em on their home floor. The Bears come in off a 12-point loss at Texas, but played well enough to win, the Longhorns simply couldn't miss (shot 55%). Baylor had won and covered 6 straight prior to that loss and I'm confident they return back to form. They have won 3 straight at home and are 7-1 ATS over their 6-3 start to Big 12 play. K-State has been playing well, but this is a big letdown spot for the Wildcats coming off a huge win at Kansas. Bears are 7-1 ATS lat 8 after playing their previous game as an underdog, 7-0 ATS last 7 after covering 4 of their last 5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 at home after giving up 80 or more points in their previous game. Take Baylor! |
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02-08-19 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 223.5 | Top | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bulls/Nets OVER The Bulls/Nets should have zero problem eclipsing the total set here by the books. The average score in Chicago's last 5 games is 225.2 and for Brooklyn the average score in their last 5 games is 226.6. Bulls defense has been non-existent in their last 2, giving up 125 to both the Pelicans and Hornets. Chicago's offense on the other hand is shooting lights out, having hit 50% from the field in each of their last 4. Brooklyn just gave up 130 to the Nuggets in a game that saw 265 total points scored, as both teams shot over 50% from the field. OVER is 32-18 in the Bulls last 50 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points (last 3 seasons). OVER is also 6-1 lat 7 for Chicago on the road against a team with a winning home record. Adding even more value here is a big time system that has cashed 76% over the last 5 seasons. The OVER is 44-14 in the month of February when you have a game with a 1st half total greater than 100 and a team (Nets) that went over the total by more than 30 points in their last game. Take the OVER! |
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02-07-19 | South Florida v. SMU -5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU - This line really says it all. USF comes in having won 3 straight and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, while SMU enters having lost their last 2 and are just 1-4 in their last 5. You wouldn't expect the Bulls to be a 5-point dog here, but that just tells you how much the books not only like the Mustangs to win but to do so rather easily. The biggest thing to keep in mind with SMU's 1-4 stretch over their last 5 is just how tough the schedule has been. Out of the 4 losses, 3 were on the road against the likes of Cincinnati, Wichita State and Memphis. The only loss at home was to arguably the best team in the league in Houston. In their other 3 conference home games this season they have beat Tulane by 10, Tulsa by 20 and East Carolina by 28. USF's only road win in the AAC is against Tulane and they are the only team in the conference that has yet to win a game (just 4-17 overall). Bulls are 14-28 ATS last 42 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6.5 points, while the Mustangs are 23-12 ATS last 35 as a home favorite and 12-3 ATS last 15 at home when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take SMU! |
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02-04-19 | Nuggets v. Pistons +4.5 | Top | 103-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pistons + Last time out the Pistons blew a 25-point lead in a 10 point home loss to the Clippers. Blake Griffin called it the worst loss of the year. My money is on Detroit using that defeat as motivation against a Denver team that is slowly getting a bigger and bigger target on their back. Nuggets have 6 straight and are tied with Golden State for the best record in the West. The thing is they have been playing short-handed. Garry Harris is out with a groin injury and Jamal Murray has missed the last 5 games with a bad ankle. I just think Denver has to be running on fumes right now and it would be really easy for them to look past a Pistons team that has won a mere 9-games since upsetting the Warriors at home back on Dec. 1st. Nuggets are also not nearly the same team on the road, where they have failed to cover 6 of their last 8 against teams with a winning home record. Denver is also a mere 15-28 last 43 road games off a win. Take Detroit! |
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02-02-19 | Pepperdine +2 v. Pacific | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pepperdine + Books have the wrong team favored in this one. Pepperdine should have zero problem leaving Pacific with a win Saturday night. The Waves just absolutely rolled Portland 83-58 as a mere 5-point road favorite last time out. That's 3 straight covers, giving them a 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 games. Clearly the books are not giving Pepperdine the respect they deserve. Pacific is a mere 2-6 SU in their last 8 and have failed to cover 3 straight. Note that the two wins for the Tigers are both against Portland and neither came easy. For those that don't know, Portland is the worst team in the WCC (currently 0-8 in conference play). Take Pepperdine! |
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02-01-19 | Quinnipiac +3.5 v. Canisius | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Quinnipiac + Love the value here with the Bobcats getting points against the Golden Griffins. Canisius is getting way too much love here at home, as they have shown to have little to no home court advantage. The Golden Griffins are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in home lined games this season. Another big reason I like Quinnipiac here is they will extra motivated to get revenge from a crushing 2-point loss at home to Canisius earlier this season. This is definitely the time to jump on the Bobcats, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference win, 7-0 ATS last 7 road games with a total of 140 to 149.5 and 6-0 ATS last 6 as a road underdog of 6 points or less. Take Quinnipiac! |
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02-01-19 | Brown -2 v. Dartmouth | Top | 60-58 | Push | 0 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown - Easy play here on the Bears as a slim road favorite at Dartmouth Friday night. Brown is simply the better team, but the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses to Yale and the Big Green split their two games against Harvard, we are getting a great price on them. Yale looks like the team to beat in the Ivy League so far and the Bears played them tough in both meetings, losing by just 3 at home and by 8 on the road. Dartmouth had the big upset over Harvard at home, but let's not forget the Big Green were the consensus pick to finish last in the Ivy League and this is a spot they have struggled in. Dartmouth is a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games against a top tier team that is outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. Bears are also a strong 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road. Take Brown! |
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01-31-19 | Pacific +6 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 42-60 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacific + The Tigers should have zero problem covering here at Loyola-Marymount. The overall records make it look like the Lions are the far superior team, but I think this is a very evenly matched game. Pacific is 2-5 and getting outscored by 6.3 ppg in conference play. Loyola-Marymount is only 3-4 and are getting outscored by 4.7 ppg. The Tigers come into this game off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread, but that's actually a positive for us. Pacific is 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons after failing to cover two straight. The Tigers are are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a conference win. Lions are 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 0-5 ATS last 5 off a SU win. Take Pacific! |
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01-31-19 | Drexel +5 v. William & Mary | Top | 69-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel + This is the perfect spot to jump on the Dragons as a road dog. Drexel hosted William & Mary earlier this season and got embarrassed 84-66. That's not a concern here, as the Dragons are a remarkable 25-9 ATS in their last 34 when revenging a home loss of 10 or more. The Tribe are also a team that you want to fade at home against bad teams. William & Mary are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games in the month of January and 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. The Tribe have also failed to cover 5 straight, while the Dragons are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record. Take Drexel! |
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01-30-19 | CS-Northridge +7.5 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Northridge + The Matadors will have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog against the Titans. These two teams have pretty much identical records, but we are seeing the line heavily shaded in favor of Cal State Fullerton because they come in having won 4 straight and covered 3 in a row. I just think this line should be closer to 3, giving us more than 4-points in value on a team that can win this game outright. Adding to this, we see that the Matadors are a dominant 9-1 ATS last 10 road games in the month of January and are a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games off a SU win. Take CS-Northridge! |
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01-26-19 | San Francisco -2.5 v. San Diego | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
5* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco - Amazing value here with the Dons at basically a pick'em on the road against the Toreros. San Francisco comes in having won 3 straight. The last two in blowout fashion, beating BYU by 19 and Portland by 22. Dons are 14-3 ATS last 17 when off a conference win by 20 or more. There's also a big time system in play favoring the Dons to cover. Road favorites who are a strong offensive team (74-78 ppg) against a sub-par defensive team (67-74 ppg) are 53-22 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Take San Francisco! |
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01-26-19 | Cornell +4 v. Columbia | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Cornell + Love the value here with Cornell getting this many points. These two teams played each other last time out and the Big Red pulled out a 60-59 win at home. A pretty impressive victory given they were so sloppy with the ball. Cornell had 20 turnovers, wich was their most in a game since early December. I think they clean up those mistakes and not only cover the spread, but win this game outright. Columbia is just 2-10 ATS last 12 at home when revenging a loss of 3-points or less. Great system favoring a play on the Big Red. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are coming off a home win by 3-points or less and have a winning percentage between 45%-55% are 161-97 (62%) ATS since 1997. Take Cornell! |
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01-26-19 | Drexel +4.5 v. Delaware | Top | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on Drexel + Too much value to pass up with the Dragons catching this many points on the road against the Blue Hens. Drexel comes in off back-to-back wins where they covered the spread and are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4. Delaware has dropped 2 of their last 3, including a loss at home to Towson as a similarly priced 5.5-point favorite. Dragons have covered 7 of their last 10 in conference play and Drexel head coach Zach Spiker is 11-2 in road games when his team is coming off a home win. Take Drexel! |
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01-25-19 | Brown +8.5 v. Yale | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Ivy League GAME OF THE MONTH on Brown + The Bears should have no problem covering here as a near double-digit road dog at Yale. The Bulldogs are getting way too much respect here because they are a perfect 5-0 at home, enter on a 7-game winning streak and are 3-1 ATS last 4. Just so happens these two teams just played each other in their last game on Saturday. Yale barely snuck out a 70-67 win. It's really tough to beat the same team twice in a short window like this, especially when you have a quality team like Brown. I actually think the Bears have a really good shot at winning this game outright. Either way they are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 road games off a home loss, 10-2 ATS last 12 on the road after a game where they failed to cover and 5-0 last 5 on the road overall. Take Brown! |
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01-24-19 | Loyola Marymount +5.5 v. San Diego | Top | 58-71 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAB West Coast (WCC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola Marymount + I like the Lions to win this game outright, making them an easy play here as a decently priced dog. San Diego has been overvalued here of late, as the Toreros are just 2-5 ATS last 7. Last time out they got rolled by 17 points at St Mary's. They were also upset in their most recent home game, losing 76-71 to Pepperdine as a 8-point favorite. Loyola-Marymount comes in off a win over Pepperdine at home, but did fail to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. That's okay, as the Lions have cashed 8 of their last 10 games when coming off a ATS loss. Lions are also 8-3 ATS last 11 road games, 7-3 ATS last 10 conference games and 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Loyola-Marymount! |
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01-22-19 | St. Peter's +3.5 v. Niagara | Top | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on St. Peter's + Love the Peacocks here. St. Peter's should have no problem winning this game, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point dog. The Purple Eagles should not be favored. These two teams have played 4 common opponents. While the Peacocks are just 1-3, Niagara is 0-4. The defensive numbers really stand out, as St Peters only gave up 58.5 ppg in these 4, while the Purple Eagles are allowing 77 ppg. The Peacocks have gone 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning record. They are also 8-2 ATS last 10 in conference play and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a game where they failed to cover. Niagara has failed to cover 5 of their last 7, are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 home games on Tuesday night and 4-18 ATS last 22 at home after playing 5 straight games as an underdog. Take St. Peter's! |
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01-19-19 | Towson +6 v. Delaware | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson + Love the value here with the Tigers at this price. Towson comes in having lost 6 straight and failed to cover the spread in all 6. It's been some bad luck for the Tigers, as all 6 losses have been respectable. The most they lost by in this stretch is 12-points. Delaware is coming in off a win and cover at home against James Madison. They have struggled i this spot historically, going just 39-61 ATS at home at a cover. I think the Blue Hens will really struggle to give the Tigers the respect they deserve. Wouldn't be shocked at all if Towson won this game. Adding to this is a big time system in play on the Tigers. Underdogs who are coming off a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field are 78-34 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in games where you have two average defensive teams that are allowing teams to shoot 42.5%-45%. Take Towson +6! |
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01-18-19 | Marist +7 v. Iona | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Marist + Big time value here with the Red Foxes as a road dog against the Gaels. Marist is way undervalued right now, as they come in having lost 5 of their last 6. Iona is also overvalued having won 3 of 5. Gaels covered last time out and are just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 after covering their previous game. Marist has had no problem cashing in a winning ticket when they visit Iona, as they are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 trips to face the Gaels. It's also worth pointing out that Iona comes into this game off a 88-70 road win at Canisius, which puts the Gaels into a very profitable system to fade. Favorites on Friday nights that are coming off an upset win as a road dog are a mere 18-52 (25.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Marist! |
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01-17-19 | James Madison +4.5 v. Delaware | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison + The Dukes should have no problem covering the small number here at Delaware, as I got them winning this game outright. James Madison comes in off two strong games, as they beat Towson 74-65 as a 4-point favorite and won 69-58 at home against College of Charleston as a 8.5-point dog. As for the Blue Hens, they just lost at College of Charleston by 13, snapping their 4-game win streak. I look for Delaware to struggle again here, as they are just 5-15 ATS last 20 at home after going 4-1 in their previous 5 games. The Dukes are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs a quality team that's won more than 60% of their games and 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home. Take James Madison! |
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01-17-19 | Towson +4.5 v. Drexel | Top | 66-72 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Towson + This series has been dominated by the road dog. The road team has covered 8 of the last 12 and the underdog has cashed in 11 of the last 17. Towson is 4-1-1 in their last 6 trips to Drexel. I not only like them to keep it within the number, but I think the Tigers win this game outright. Thees are two of the worst teams in the Colonial Athletic and there's just not any home court edge for a team like the Dragons. One area where Towson should have a big edge is on the boards. Tigers are outrebounding opponents by an average of 6/game. Dragons are 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs a team that averages +4 or better rebound margin and have lost these game by an average of 10 points. Take Towson! |
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01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -120 | Top | 129-109 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Clippers - I absolutely love this spot and price on the Clippers at home against the Jazz. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Los Angeles and the perfect time to fade Utah. We know we are getting a big effort here from the Clippers, as they have to be looking at this game as a must win. After this they host the Warriors and then play 4 straight on the road. They come in having lost 3 straight and things can spiral out of control quickly if you aren't careful, especially in the Western Conference. Utah has won a season-high 4 straight games, but haven't exactly looked great doing so and the 4 wins all came at home against the likes of the Magic, Lakers, Bulls and Pistons. Jazz are still without their top 3 point guards, which has forced Donovan Mitchell to play out of position. It's resulted in some really bad offense and a bunch of turnovers here of late. Clippers are 17-7 ATS last 24 as a favorite. Jazz are 15-28 Last 43 as a road dog of 6 or less. Utah is also 2-6 ATS last 8 off a win and 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Los Angeles! |
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01-12-19 | Towson +5 v. James Madison | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH BEST BET on Towson + The books have completely missed the mark here with the Tigers as a 5-point road dog. My numbers show this game should be a lot closer to a pick'em. James Madison has the better record, but that's simply because they played the much easier non-conference schedule. The Dukes won and covered their last time out, but are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a game where they covered. James Madison is also a mere 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 0-7 ATS last 7 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Towson! |
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01-11-19 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 218 | Top | 113-141 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cavs/Rockets OVER The books have completely missed the mark here with the total. Houston and Cleveland should have no problem eclipsing 220 points and there's a potential for them to fly by the number. Houston can light up the scoreboard, especially when James Harden has it going like he does now. Last 3 games the Cavs have allowed 140 at New Orleans, 123 to the Pacers and 133 to the Pelicans at home. Each of their last 7 opponents have eclipsed 110 points. I think Houston could easily top 130 and we should see the Cavs score at least 100. Rockets haven't allowed fewer than 100 since the middle of December and are just not the same defensive team without Chris Paul in the lineup. OVER is 8-2 in the Rockets last 10 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and 5-1 in their last 6 at home vs a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! |
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01-07-19 | Niagara +3 v. Fairfield | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara + Love the value here with the Purple Eagles as a dog against the Stags. Fairfield is getting way too much credit on their home floor. The Stags are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their 4 home games this season. Niagara is simply the better team and my numbers say they should be the ones favored in this matchup. The Purple Eagles have covered 4 of their last 5 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Niagara is also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 6-0 ATS last 6 after two or more losses. On top of all that, we find a great long-term system backing the away team. Road teams of +3 to -3 that have allowed 75 or more points in 2 straight games are 66-34 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a team that just allowed 85 or more. Take Niagara! |
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01-06-19 | Temple v. Wichita State | Top | 85-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Wichita I love the value here with the Shockers at a pick'em on their home floor. I think we are going to get a huge effort here from Wichita State coming off a couple of road losses to VCU and Memphis. Shockers didn't play up to their potential in either game. Temple is a quality team, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now and this is not an easy spot for the Owls. Temple just played at UCF on Wednesday and have played a mere 1 home game since Nov. 16. Shockers are 5-1 at home this season and their defense has been outstanding at home. Wichita State is holding teams to 63.8 ppg and 40.1% shooting at home. I like the Shockers to not just win, but win comfortably. Take Wichita State! |
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01-03-19 | Canisius +3 v. Marist | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* MAAC College Hoops GAME OF THE MONTH on Canisius + The books have completely missed the mark here. My ratings say the Golden Griffens, despite their 3-8 record, should be favored in this matchup against 5-7 Marist. Canisius has played a brutal schedule to this point and it simply has them way undervalued here. We just saw this team win outright as a dog at Elon and cover as a 7-point dog at Holy Cross a few days later. These two have a common opponent in Buffalo and while both loss, the Griffens lost by just 15, where the Red Foxes lost by 27 and managed just 49 points. Last year Canisus won both meetings and have won 4 of the last 5. Golden Griffins are 19-7 ATS last 26 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 5-1 ATS last 6 vs the MAAC. Take Canisius! |
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12-28-18 | James Madison +8 v. William & Mary | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison + The Dukes should have zero problem here covering on the road against the Tribe. James Madison comes in off an ugly 75-48 loss at Fordham as a mere 3.5-point dog and that's definitely playing into this inflated number on William & Mary. It's been a wise move to jump on the Dukes in this spot, as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a loss by 20 points or more. We are also talking about a William & Mary team that has only won 4 games all season. Note that these two teams have played 3 common opponents. The Dukes are 1-2 vs those teams and the Tribe are 0-3. William & Mary is also a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning straight up record and the Dukes are a rock solid 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs a team from the CAA. Take James Madison! |
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12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 223.5 | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sixers/Celtics UNDER I love the UNDER here in this division clash between the 76ers and Celtics. There's a ton of talent on both teams and these are two teams that are believed to have a legit shot at winning the Eastern Conference. I think both are going to be out to make a statement here and we are going to get max effort from both sides on the defensive side of the ball. These two played back in October and the Celtics won 105-87 for a combined total of just 193 points. That game had a total of 211.5. I get the 76ers have added Jimmy Butler since that game, but he's an elite defender and we got plenty of wiggle room here with this total north of 220. The average score in the 76ers last 17 division road games is 214.5. The average score in the Celtics last 15 division home games is 207.1. Take the UNDER! |
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12-19-18 | Warriors v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz + The books are absolutely begging the public to take the Warriors here as a small road favorite and they are doing exactly that (close to 70% action on Golden State). They did the same thing when these two met back in October and the Jazz covered in a painful 124-123 loss as 2.5-point dog. There's no doubt that Utah has been itching for this rematch after nearly knocking off the defending champs. We are going to get their best effort here. It's hard for Golden State to get up for regular-season games and I have to think they are a bit annoyed that they have this 1-game road trip to Utah before returning home for Christmas (next road game is 12/29). Not to mention the Warriors aren't just struggling to cover on the road, they are a mere 8-7 straight up away from Oracle Arena. Golden State is also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Utah! |
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12-18-18 | Wizards v. Hawks +4.5 | Top | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast PLAY OF THE MONTH on Hawks + This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta as a home dog against the Wizards. Washington has been one of the most overvalued teams this season, especially on the road. The Wizards are 4-12 SU and 4-12 ATS in their 16 road games. I get the Hawks aren't a great team, but no way should Washington be a road favorite. The Wizards come in off what looks like an impressive 128-110 win over the Lakers, but they got a LA team that didn't show up to play on the second night of a back-to-back road set. Prior to that win they had lost 4 straight, including a 15-point loss on the road to the Cavs. Wizards are 0-9 ATS last 9 road games after allowing 105 or more points in 3 straight games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after a game with a combined score of 235 or more. Take Atlanta! |
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12-10-18 | Magic +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 76-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Magic + I really like this spot for Orlando to cover the spread and possible win the game outright at Dallas on Monday. This is a big letdown spot for the Mavs, who are coming off a thrilling 107-104 win at home over the Rockets. As for the Magic, we can bank on a big effort here after back-to-back home losses to the Nuggets and Pacers. Orland has been a solid road team. They are 6-6 away from home and most importantly, 9-2 ATS on the highway. Magic have also covered 7 straight away from home when facing a team that is allowing 106+ points/game. Another thing is Orlando is fresh, as they have played just once in the last 4 days. Playing into that is a great system in favor of a Magic cover. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points who are playing just their 4th or less game in the last 10 days are 41-15 (73%) ATS in the month of December over the last 5 seasons. Take Orlando! |
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12-08-18 | Michigan State v. Florida +3.5 | Top | 63-59 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida + I cashed in on the Gators in their 10-point win over West Virginia and I'll gladly back them as a home dog here against the Spartans. Florida beat the Mountaineers by double-digits, despite shooting a mere 33.3% from the field. Note that game was played on a  neutral court. This has been a much different Florida offense at home, where they are averaging 85.3 ppg and shooting 53.1% from the field. It's not so much the offense, as it is the defense that has me liking the Gators here. Michigan State took won't have the same advantages against Florida as they did in their 22-point blowout win at home against Iowa, where they shot 52%. Spartans are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games after 2 or more wins and are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a conference win by 10 or more points. Take Florida! |
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12-04-18 | Notre Dame v. Oklahoma -3 | Top | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH  on Oklahoma - This is a no-brainer for me. I think Oklahoma is the better team and it's not even close. While both teams come into this game with a 6-1 record, the Sooners' 6-1 record has been a lot more impressive. Oklahoma's only loss is to a Wisconsin team that figures to finish near the top of the Big Ten. They have impressive wins over Florida and Dayton and have only played 2 true home games so far this season. Notre Dame has a 2-point win over Illinois on it's resume, but also a loss at home to Radford. Irish have also played all 7 of their games at home. Both teams lost a lot from last year, but I think a lot more people wrote off Oklahoma because they lost a superstar in Trae Young. While Young was the talk of CBB, the Sooners went just 4-12 down the stretch. A lot of that was it was a one-man show. This year they are playing much better team basketball and a lot better defense. I look for them to win this one going away. Take Oklahoma! |
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12-02-18 | Minnesota v. Ohio State -7 | Top | 59-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State - I got no problem laying this number here at home with the Buckeyes against the Gophers. Minnesota is going to be a trendy pick here by the pubic, as this will look like too many points for them to be catching, as they are 6-1 with wins over Utah, Texas A&M, Washington and most recently Oklahoma State. However, their lone loss came in their only true road game against Boston College and they got rolled by 12-points and shot a miserable 29.2% from the field. Ohio State can really lock teams down defensively and were playing extremely well (won true road games at Cincinnati and Creighton) before a setback at home against a quality Syracuse team. Buckeyes lost to the Orange by a final score of 72-62 and that's worth noting, as they are a prefect 5-0 ATS last 5 times they have come off a double-digit home loss. Gophers on the other hand are 0-4 ATS last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 1-9 ATS last 10 off a cover. Home team has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and Gophers are 1-10 ATS last 11 trips to Columbus. Take Ohio State! |
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11-30-18 | Mississippi State v. Dayton +4 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Dayton + The public is going to be all over the ranked Bulldogs, but I don't think Mississippi State should be favored. I wasn't all that impressed with the Bulldogs showing in Las Vegas. They lost outright to Arizona State as a 4.5-point favorite and barely held on for a 4-point win against St. Mary's. Dayton on the other hand is a team I think is flying under the radar. The Flyers struggled in the first year under head coach Anthony Grant, but return 4 starters and outside of an awful 10 minutes stretch against Oklahoma, I've liked what I have seen. Dayton only lost by 7 on a neutral court to Virginia and shot 54.3% from the field, which is outstanding against that Cavaliers' defense. They were up decent on Oklahoma in the 2nd half, but went ice cold and scored 2 points in a 10-minute stretch. With the Bulldogs not quite as good as people think and this being Mississippi State's first true road game, I like Dayton to win this matchup. Flyers are 13-5 ATS L18 vs a team from the SEC, while Bulldogs are 1-11 ATS last 12 off a SU win by 20 or more (beat Alcorn St by 23 last time out). Take Dayton! |
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11-28-18 | Bulls v. Bucks -13.5 | Top | 113-116 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks - I got no problem here laying the big number with Milwaukee at home against the Bulls. The Bucks come into this one off a upset loss at Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite. Milwaukee hasn't lost back-to-back games all season and are 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. The Bulls are really struggling right now. Chicago has lost 3 straight and are a mere 3-12 in their last 15. Until they get some of their key guys back from injury, they are going to struggle to be competitive, especially against the elite teams. These two teams played earlier this month and the Bucks toyed with Chicago in a 123-104 win, as they led 63-45 at the half. Big system in play as well. Favorites who have won between 60% to 75% of their games and are off a game where they failed to cover are a dominant 39-15 (72%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a horrible team that's won 25% or less of their games. Take Milwaukee! |
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11-27-18 | Nevada v. Loyola-Chicago +6.5 | Top | 79-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Loyola-Chicago + Expectations were sky-high for Loyola-Chicago coming into this year after that Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament a year ago. I think a lot of people are off this team though after their 4-2 start, which includes a double-digit loss to Boston College last time out. I still think the Ramblers are a very dangerous team, especially on their home floor and Nevada is simply getting too much respect. The Wolf Pack come in with a perfect 6-0 record and averaging 92 ppg. They aren't a bad team, but they have played a soft schedule and will get knocked off at some point. I think there's a good chance it happens tonight, as this will be their first true road game of the 2018 season. Ramblers are 15-6 ATS last 21 as an underdog and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off a loss by 10 or more points. Take Loyola-Chicago! |
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11-26-18 | Magic v. Warriors UNDER 215 | Top | 110-116 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA No Limit TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Magic/Warriors UNDER Books have completely missed the mark here. The Warriors will be without both Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Sure they still have KD and Klay Thompson, but it's just not the same without those two on the court. Not to mention we know the Magic are going to give max effort here on the defensive side of the ball, as everyone brings it when they get a shot at Golden State and they have to be thinking about potentially stealing a win with the Warriors short-handed. I think Golden State matches that defensive intensity as they have really played well on that side of the ball the last two games and this Orlando offense is limited and haven't shot it great of late. Look for a slower than normal pace and for this to fly under the mark set by the books. UNDER is 26-10-1 in Warriors last 37 off a game they didn't cover the spread and 4-1 in Magic's last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take UNDER! |
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11-21-18 | Blazers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
5* NBA Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks - The Bucks should have no problem here winning and covering the number. Milwaukee's got away with some sloppy starts here of late, but I don't think they will be sleep-walking through the start of this one. That's because the Bucks will be out for revenge from an ugly 15-point loss at Portland earlier this month. Milwaukee is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home, so the books have clearly not given this team enough respect when they take the floor at the Fiserv Forum. Portland is a good team and in normal circumstances might put up a decent fight, but they have to be running on fumes. Blazers are playing their 5th straight game on the road. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 nights and they just played last night in New York. Not to mention their next game is against the Warriors on Friday, so hard to not look ahead to that one just a little bit. Take Milwaukee! |
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11-19-18 | Suns +12.5 v. 76ers | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Suns + I really like the value here with Phoenix as a double-digit dog against the 76ers. I just think Philadelphia is bit overvalued right now with the recent trade of Jimmy Butler and them having won and covered their last two. The thing is, they could very easily be 0-3 with Butler. They lost his debut at Orlando, beat Utah at home by just 6 points and the Jazz shot 4 of 22 (18.2%) from deep and 56.8% from the free throw line. Then last time out they overcame a 60-point night from Kemba Walker in a 122-119 overtime win at Charlotte. I think that game against the Hornets really took a lot out of this team (all 5 starters played 30+ mins) and this is not as deep a team after the trade. With how bad the Suns have been, I just feel this is one of those games that the 76ers go through the motions and have to scratch out a win late. Take Phoenix! |
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11-17-18 | William & Mary +13 v. Notre Dame | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary + Big time value here with the Tribe as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has really shot the ball poorly to start the season. They are shooting just 38.7% from the field thru three games. Last time out they went 22 of 61 (36.1%) in a 63-60 loss at home to Radford. Irish are a mere 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games vs a bad team that's won between 20%-40% of their games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Tribe are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games after allowing previous two opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 road games after a game where both teams scored 75+ points. Take William & Mary! |
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11-16-18 | Niagara +6.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 72-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Niagara + It's been quite the impressive start for the Purple Eagles. They opened the year with a 80-72 win at home as a dog against St. Bonaventure, then proved it was no fluke with a competitive loss and cover at Loyola-Chicago. I go ahead and take the points for insurance, but I like Niagara to win this game outright. Wyoming has been overvalued in each of their first three, as they haven't covered a spread yet and I think the books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team. Cowboys are a mere 5-13 ATS last two seasons as a favorite. It's also worth noting that in that closer than expect loss to the Ramblers, the Purple Eagles shot a dreadful 29.2% from the field. Under head coach Chris Casey they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they shot 33% or worse. Take Niagara! |
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11-14-18 | Niagara +14 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play  on Niagara + I really like the value here with the Purple Eagles as a big dog against everyone's favorite Cinderella story from last year in Loyola-Chicago. Last year the Ramblers surprised everyone all the way to the Final Four. With that success comes expectations, as well as a pretty big target on your back. We have already seen them stumble, as they lost their second game of the season to Furman at home as a 8.5-point favorite. Loyola shot just 37% from the field. All Niagara did in their first game is upset a St Bonaventure team at home 80-72 as a 4.5-point dog. A team that you might recall won 26 games last year. The biggest thing for me with the Ramblers is last year's success came in year 7 under head coach Porter Moser, so it's not like he just arrived and flip the script. It tells me last year's success was about the talent on hand and while they got some nice pieces back they lost three seniors who played big roles. I'm not saying they won't win this one, I just don't seem them winning by double-digits. Take Niagara! |
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11-13-18 | Georgetown v. Illinois -6 | Top | 88-80 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois - I love the Illini at this price against the Hoyas. I think this Illinois team might be one of the biggest sleepers in the country. Brad Underwood had a great track record of improving teams in his first year on the job, but Illinois actually got worst in his first go of things last season. Underwood could have had basically the same team back, but instead got rid of the players that didn't fit his system and added in a bunch of talent (6 freshmen, 2 transfers). One of those freshman is 5-star point guard Ayo Dosunmu, who now gives them 3 playmakers in the backcourt with the return of senior Aaron Jordan and sophomore Big Ten All-Freshman guard Trent Frazier. Georgetown had similar struggles in the first year under head coach Patrick Ewing. I don't see the same upside with the Hoyas in year-two. Georgetown is 2-0, but only beat Maryland Eastern Shore by 15 as a 30.5-point favorite then had to hold on for a 7-point win at home against Central Connecticut. Illinois put up 99 in a 36-point win over Evansville as a mere 16-point favorite and that same Evansville team only lost by 6-points the next time out at Xavier. I just don't see Georgetown being able to keep pace offensively with this Illini team, especially on the road. Take Illinois! |
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11-09-18 | Celtics v. Jazz -3 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jazz - This is an easy play on Utah as a small home favorite against the Celtics. The Jazz really need to get on track after losing 4 of their last 5. They were able to stop the bleeding and their 4-game skid with a 15 point win over the Mavs last time out. I expect that strong play to carry over to this one. We know we are going to get a big effort here from Utah, as this will be the first time that long-term Jazz star Gordon Hayward returns to Utah in an opposing team's uniform. On top of that, the Jazz are catching Boston at the perfect time. The Celtics are in the midst of a 5-game road trip and playing on zero rest after rallying in the 2nd half to win in OT at Phoenix last night. Boston looked like they were already running on fumes, as they scored just 35 in the 1st half against the Suns. They simply aren't going to have the energy/effort to keep this game competitive. We also now know Kyrie Irving won't play and I could see some other guys minutes restricted, as this game just doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things for the Celtics. Take Utah! |
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11-09-18 | Cal-Irvine +6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal-Irvine + I fully expect UC Irvine to a be a team people are talking about as a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament. The Anteaters are absolutely loaded in terms of experience and talent for a team of their size. Irvine gets back all 5 starters, their top 3 reserves and talented redshirt freshman Collin Welp. It's why the Anteaters are as short a dog as they are against a Power 5 program in Texas A&M, who has two starters back from last year's Sweet 16 team. The thing with the Aggies is they figure to be down a few notches after losing one of the best frontcourts in the country with Tyler Davis, D.J. Hogg and Robert Williams all gone. In total they lost 4 guys 6-9 or taller who averaged at least 6.7 ppg and 4.4 rpg. I not only think the Anteaters will keep this thing close enough to cover, but I like them to win this one outright. They already won and covered as a 15-point favorite in their season opener (shot 54% from the field). Aggies on the other hand won by just 15 as a 29-point favorite. Take UC-Irvine! |
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11-08-18 | Bucks v. Warriors UNDER 238.5 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
5* NBA TNT Thursday GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Warriors UNDER This is going to be a heavily bet game. Not just because we have a potential NBA Finals preview with the Warriors and Bucks, but this is also the last NBA game on the board and it's nationally televised on TNT. Books know the public is going to be on the OVER in this one, as they love backing the OVER with Golden State and the Bucks come in averaging 120 ppg. I just think it's resulted in ton of value here on the UNDER. People focus so much on the offense side of the ball with these two teams, they don't give their defenses enough respect. Bucks are No. 2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 13th. Regardless of where Golden State is ranked, I think we all know that they are elite defensively when they want to be. Most nights they don't need to be. I think in this spot against the "Greek Freak" they will be ready to go. UNDER is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-06-18 | San Francisco +3 v. UC-Davis | Top | 76-42 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Opening Night GAME OF THE YEAR on San Fran + I'm shocked the Dons are a dog in this fight, but I'll gladly take some insurance points in a game I see San Francisco winning rather easily. The Dons have won 42 games in the first two seasons under head coach Kyle Smith and made it all the way to the CBI Finals last March. This year's team looks even stronger than the one that went 22-17 and finished 4th in the WCC behind the likes of Gonzaga, St Mary's and BYU. They probably can't challenge Gonzaga for the title, but I could definitely see them surprising and finishing higher in the standings. UC Davis is also off a strong season and et back Big West Player of the Year T.J. Shorts, but lost two key starters, including China Moneke, who nearly averaged a double-double (18.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg). I just don't see them keeping pace with the Dons in this one. Take San Francisco! |
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11-05-18 | Rockets v. Pacers OVER 212 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets OVER The under has cashed in each of the last 4 games for the Pacers and Houston is coming off a game against the Bulls where they won by a final score of 96-88. I think all of this has created some great value on the OVER in this one. Both meetings between these two teams last year saw at least 213 points. Indiana is averaging 109.5 ppg at home and the Rockets are putting up 112.7. For whatever reason the Rockets have been ice-cold shooting at home, yet are hitting 46.4% from the field on the road and averaging 15 made 3-pointers on 37.3% shooting from deep. With a big game against OKC (Melo was booted and signed with Houston) on deck for the Rockets and Indiana off the big win over Boston and another big game on deck against the 76ers, I just don't think we see an all out effort defensively from either side here. That should have this thing finishing a lot closer to 220-225. Take the OVER! |
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11-04-18 | Knicks v. Wizards -6.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Wizards - Last time out the Wizards were booed off their own court in a 134-111 loss at home to the Thunder. Washington is now 1-7 thru their first 8 games and have lost 5 straight. It's not acceptable to go 1-7, but they have played 5 of their first 8 games not the road and their 3 at home were against likely playoff teams in the Heat, Raptors and Thunder. They also have 3 losses by 4-points or less. Simply put, it's not as bad as people are making it. I'm confident this team will get it figured out and I'm willing to bet it happens at home today against the Knicks. New York has played well at times and are off a nice 118-106 win at Dallas, but the Knicks aren't a playoff team. They are 3-6 on the season and I just don't see them being able to match the intensity of a desperate Wizards team that I believe will treat this like a must-win. Take Washington! |
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11-01-18 | Clippers v. 76ers OVER 229 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Sixers OVER Get ready for some offensive fire-works in tonight's NBA showdown between the Clippers and 76ers. Neither of these teams brought much energy on the defensive side in their last game on Tuesday and with just 1-day off I expect more of the same. Los Angeles allowed 128 points and 51.1% shooting in 18-point loss at OKC, which saw a combined score of 238. Philadelphia gave up 129 and 51.1% shooting in a 17-point loss at Toronto, which saw 241 combined points. 76ers come into this one averaging 115.2 ppg at home and the Clippers are averaging 117.3 ppg on the road. OVER is 13-4 in the Clippers last 17 after playing in a game with a combined score of 235 or more, 8-3-1 in their last 12 off a SU loss and 5-2 in Philadelphia's last 7 overall. Take the OVER! |
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10-31-18 | Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest GAME OF THE MONTH on Jazz UNDER The books have completely missed the mark with this total. No way the Jazz and Timberwolves combine for 224 or more points. Minnesota is coming off a high-scoring game against LA, which was played at a frantic pace. While the Timberwolves put up 124, they only shot 42.9% from the field. That's 4 straight games where Minnesota has shot 43% or worse. Utah's defense gave up a couple of big numbers right out of the gate, but in their last 4 games they are holding their opponents to just 99.0 ppg. We saw the Timberwolves only score 95 in their previous home game against the Bucks. Look for the Jazz to really rely on that defense in this one, as they aren't going to want to play up-tempo here. This will be Utah's 4 straight on the road and 3rd game in the last 5 nights. Note that the UNDER is a solid 76-40 (66%) since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more where a team is playing their 4th straight on the road and playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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10-29-18 | Kings v. Heat -8 | Top | 123-113 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Heat - Great spot here to fade the Kings on the road. Sacramento is off back-to-back upset wins at home, as they defeated Memphis 97-92 as a 3-point dog and the Wizards 116-112 as a 5-point dog. I think it has the Kings getting a little too much respect here against a Heat team that is off back-to-back impressive wins at home. Miami crushed the Knicks at home 110-87 and then followed that up with a 120-111 win over Portland. Long way for Sacramento to travel to open up their road trip and I look for them to come out a bit flat. That should be more than enough for the Heat to win here by double-digits. Kings are just 19-36 ATS in their last 55 games off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. Sacramento has also struggled on the boards and the Heat are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs a team that is getting out-rebounded by 3+ boards per game. Take Miami! |
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10-27-18 | Magic v. Bucks -8.5 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Bucks - Milwaukee has started out the 2018-19 season 5-0 and I look for them to stay undefeated with a comfortable win at home against the Magic. Each of the last 4 wins for the Bucks have come by at least 9 points, including a 30-point blowout win at Minnesota last night. I just don't think Orlando has the talent to keep this one close. Not a big deal here that Milwaukee is playing on no rest with how easy the win was last night against the Timberwolves. I would be more concerned about the Magic showing up, as they hit the road for the 3rd time in the last week and are just 1-day of rest. Orlando is a mere 4-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons when playing a top tier offensive team like Milwaukee, who are averaging 110 or more points/game. Magic are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 when playing on 1 day of rest, while the Bucks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 25 on 0 days of rest. Take Milwaukee! |
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10-20-18 | Hornets +5 v. Heat | Top | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
5* NBA Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Hornets + I really like what I have seen from Charlotte to start this new season. The Hornets lost a heartbreaker at home to the Bucks 113-112 on Wednesday, but followed that up with a 120-88 blowout win at Orlando. Charlotte is really pushing the pace this year and are shooting lights out from deep, as they come in averaging 16 made 3-pointers and are shooting 43.4% from long distance. Miami lost to the Magic on the road in their opener Wednesday and squeaked out a win at Washington on Thursday. The Heat are playing short-handed to start the new season, as Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow, James Johnson and Dion Waiters are all out with injuries. I just don't think Miami will have enough gas in the tank to keep up with Charlotte and all we need is for the Hornets to lose by 4 or less. Hornets are 24-8 in their last 32 road games after playing a game where they led by 15 or more points at the half. Miami has failed to cover 6 of their last 7 at home. Take Charlotte! |
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10-19-18 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 117-131 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Grizzlies - Great spot to jump on the Grizzlies at home off that ugly loss in their season opener on the road to the Pacers. Indiana is one of the top teams in the east and Memphis simply didn't match their intensity. They also shot about as bad as an NBA team can, going just 25 of 84 (29.8%) from the field. I expect the shots to fall at home against a Hawks team that just doesn't have a lot of talent and will certainly struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta gave up 126 points to the Knicks, who are without their best player in Porzingis. This is a much-improved Memphis team, as they have a healthy Mike Conley at the points and one of the top big men in the game in Marc Gasol. The Hawks are going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA and will simply be no match for the Grizzlies on the road. Take Memphis! |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5.5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Cavs + I love the value here with the Cavs as a decently priced home dog in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. While Cleveland's hopes of making this a series likely are long gone with them down 3-0, they aren't just going to roll over and give the title to Golden State. There's a lot of pride in not getting swept and it's not like the Cavs haven't had their chances. Cleveland could just as easily be sitting with a 2-1 lead, as they were right there in both Game 1 and Game 3. Keep in mind last year the Warriors took a 3-0 series lead and a lot of people thought the Cavs were going to get swept. Instead, Cleveland ran away with Game 4 in a 21-point blowout win. I don't know if it will be that lopsided, but I fully expect the Cavs to win this one outright. At the same time, we got some insurance if Cleveland does lose, as we can still cash if the Warriors win by 5 or less. Take Cleveland! |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 207 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER on the total for Game 4 between the Celtics and Cavs. Each of the first 3 games in the series have all finished UNDER the mark set by the books and I think this has the potential to be the lowest scoring of them all. Cleveland's blowout win in Game 3 wasn't a huge shocker. Boston hasn't been great on the road this postseason and the Cavs were basically in a do-or-die situation already down 0-2 in the series. I really like the adjustments Cleveland made on the defensive side of the ball, as well as the all-out effort from James. They have no choice but to come out with that same intensity, as this one is just as important as the last. The key here is that we should get a much more focused and energized Boston team. They are going to make their adjustments and while the shots might not fall like they do at home, they can still make a game of this with their defensive effort and I expect them to do just that. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams failed to reach 95 in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the 76ers and Celtics. While the first two games of the series have went OVER, the scoring did drop off quite a bit from Game 1 to Game 2. After combining for 118 in Game 1, the two combined for just 111 in Game 2. I look for another drop in scoring here in Game 3. Boston hasn't been nearly as efficient offensively on the road. They scored just 92, 102 and 86 in their 3 games at Milwaukee in the first round. The other big key here is we are going to get everything the 76ers have on the defensive end with the series on the line down 0-2. They also aren't going to take their foot off the gas after blowing that 22 points lead in Game 2. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 100 points in this one. Take the UNDER! |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 218 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavs/Raptors UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 1 between the Raptors and Cavs. I know these two teams have a lot of offensive fire-power, but this total is way too high for these two teams. Cleveland simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power it's had in the past and really have to rely on their defense to win. I also think we are seeing an inflated total here, as a lot of people think the Cavs won't show up after playing a Game 7 just 2 days ago, but I expect this team to come out ready to play. I actually think Cleveland matches up a lot better with Toronto than they did the Pacers. With that said the Raptors are a strong team and really turned up the defensive intensity over the final 3 games of their series with Washington. I expect an all-out effort defensively from Toronto in this one, as they are well aware of how critical these first two games at home are. UNDER is 22-10 in the Cavs last 32 games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and UNDER is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. Take the UNDER! |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 53 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors - I love the value here with the Warriors at this price on their home court in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Pelicans. Regardless if Steph Curry plays or not (added bonus if he does), I expect Golden State to come out looking to send a message to New Orleans that they have no business being in this series. I know the Pelicans looked great in their sweep of the Blazers, but Portland wasn't playing well down the stretch and that was a great matchup with no one on the Blazers who could contain Anthony Davis and Rondo being able to make things difficult on Lillard. While Davis will be to stop, Portland will have no answer for Durant and the depth of the Warriors. Take Golden State! |
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04-27-18 | Raptors +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 37 h 14 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMINT Top Play on Raptors + I love the value here with Toronto getting points in Game 6 at Washington. The Raptors took back control of the series with a 108-98 win in Game 5 at home and are going to do everything in their power to make sure their next home game is in round 2. This series likely would have been over if the Raptors didn't blow a 14-point 2nd half lead in Washington back in Game 4. I don't see them making that same mistake twice. Look for Toronto to take control of this game early and keep their foot on the gas. The Raptors also seem to have figured out the Wizards offense. After allowing Washington to shot 48% or better in each of the first 3 games, they held them to 46% in Game 4 on the road and 41% in Game 5. Raptors are 25-14 in their last 39 off a double-digit home win, while the Wizards are just 11-22 ATS as a home favorite this season. Take Toronto! |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 37 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Thunder - I love the value here with OKC as a short home favorite in Game 5 against the Jazz. The Thunder find themselves facing elimination down 3-1 in the series and I like their chances of getting a win and cover in this one. You have to give Utah credit for how well they have played up to this point, but it's extremely difficult closing out a team on the road in the postseason, especially for a team like the Jazz that don't have a ton of playoff experience to fall back on. One of the biggest problems for the Thunder has been the early foul trouble of Westbrook. They also aren't getting the kind of production they need out of veteran Carmelo Anthony. I look for both of these two to step up big and for the others to have a big game for OKC at home. Even with their win and cover in Game 2 on the road, Utah is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Chesepeake Energy Arena. Take Oklahoma City! |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Pelcians + I love the value here with the Pelicans as a decently priced dog in Game 2 of their series with the Blazers. New Orleans avoided a devastating loss in Game 1, as the held on for a 97-95 win after going into the 4th quarter with a 12-point lead. Anthony Davis led the way with 35 points and 14 rebounds, but he wasn't the only big contributor for the Pelicans. Rondo scored just 6 points, but had 17 assists and 8 rebounds. Mirotic added 16 points and 11 rebound, while Holiday dropped 21 points. New Orleans as a team assisted on 26 of their 41 made baskets. In comparison the Blazers only had 17 assists on 37 made field goals. Portland was really fortunate to even be in the game, as they shot 37.8% from the field. What kept them in it was 15 offensive rebounds. I just think that's unlikely to happen again. This is simply too many points for the Pelicans to be catching given they have the best player on the court. Take New Orleans! |
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04-15-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 203 | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 56 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks/Celtics UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's early NBA playoff action that has the Celtics hosting the Bucks. A lot of people are writing off Boston after the injury to Kyrie Irving. While that almost certainly put an end to any hopes they had of making the NBA Finals, they still have more than enough talent to win a series or two. One thing that Boston will have to do without Irving is rely even more on their defense, as they aren't going to get as many easy looks offensively. I think it's going to be difficult for both teams to score here and don't see either side getting to 100 points. That makes this a pretty easy call with the total north of 200. UNDER is 7-2-1 in the Bucks last 10 conference quarterfinal matchups and 24-9 in the Celtics last 33 when playing in the first round of the postseason. Take the UNDER! |
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04-14-18 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 209 | Top | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Spurs/Warriors UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Western Conference series opener between the Spurs and Warriors. While Golden State is the heavy favorite in the series despite Steph Curry being sidelined, there's no question that they aren't the same offensive juggernaut without him. San Antonio knows they have no chance of beating the Warriors in a shootout, even without Curry, and I look for Popovich and the Spurs to try and slow down the tempo as much as possible to keep Golden State out of a rhythm. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points and this thing finished somewhere in the low 190s. Take the UNDER! |
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04-10-18 | Rockets v. Lakers +8.5 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play  on Lakers + I love the value here with the Lakers as a big home dog against the Rockets on Tuesday. Houston has absolutely nothing to play for. They have the best record in the league locked up and have made it clear that their primary focus over the last 2 regular season games is to stay healthy. The starters will play, but their minutes will be restricted. Given the circumstances this line should be a lot closer to a pick'em. I think there's a good chance the Lakers win this game and we got plenty of insurance if they end up on the losing end. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-09-18 | Bulls +8.5 v. Nets | Top | 105-114 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Late Season PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bulls + I love the value here with Chicago as a big road dog against the Nets on Monday. I think we are seeing a huge overreaction with this line. Sure Brooklyn just won at Chicago 124-96 on Saturday. The thing is, that makes this game that less interesting for the Nets, who have zero to play for and are likely looking ahead to their finale against the Celtics. The Bulls on the other hand should be motivated here to play better than they did in the last meeting. Chicago had been playing well before laying an egg against the Nets. Chicago had won 3 of 4 and are still 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. Bulls are 23-12 ATS in their last 35 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points, while Brooklyn is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 at home in the 2nd half of the season. Take Chicago! |
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04-05-18 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 211 | Top | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Warriors UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Pacers hosting the Warriors. Golden State is locked into the No. 2 seed in the west, while Indiana is sitting 5th in the east, two games back of the Cavs and 76ers and 3.5 ahead of the Heat. There's just not a lot to play for here for either side, but I do think both teams are trying to stay in good form for the playoffs. Golden State's continues to play without Steph Curry and simply aren't as explosive offensively without him on on the court. Their highest point total in their last 8 games is 117 points and that was at home against the Suns. Indiana hasn't allowed more than 107 in their last 8. I think both teams are also going to limit their star players minutes, which will really make it tough for them to eclipse this number. UNDER is 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 non-conference games and 13-4 in their last 17 off a road loss. UNDER is also 21-7 in the Warriors last 28 after giving up 100+ points and 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs a good home team that's won 60% or more of their games at home. Take the UNDER! |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAA Championship Game VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan/Villanova UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Monday's National Championship Game between Villanova and Michigan. The Wildcats just put up 95 in a convincing win over Kansas that flew over the total of 155 and to no surprise the public is pounding the OVER in the title game tonight. Those who have watched Villanova, know this is a team that loves to shoot the 3-pointer and they couldn't have been hotter from deep to start their Final Four game against the Jayhawks. The Wildcats hit 13 of 26 3-pointers in the 1st half, as they exposed Kansas big man Azubuike and his inability to guard the 3-pointer. Michigan is a much better defense team than the Jayhawks and are much better equipped to defend the 3-pointer. I expect the Wolverines to try and slow down the game, as the last thing they want to do is get in a shootout with Villanova. The problem here for Michigan is they aren't a great offensive team and the Wildcats are a much better defensive team than people think. This matchup reminds me a lot of Villanova's Elite 8 matchup with Texas Tech, which finished with just 130 points. Take the UNDER! |
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03-30-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas -3.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 32 h 42 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'CBI' Champ Game VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas - I like the value here with the Mean Green in Friday's CBI Championship Game. Unlike the other postseason tournaments, where it's win or go home, the CBI plays a best of 3 series for the title. These two teams have split the first two games of the series with the home team dominating in each matchup. San Francisco won Game 1 at home 72-62. North Texas responded with a 69-55 win in game 2. The Mean Green were a similar 3.5-point home favorite in Game 2 and I just don't see any reason not to back North Texas in the rubber match at home. San Fran is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games, while the Mean Green are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Take North Texas! |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Liberty | Top | 67-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'CIT' Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Illinois Chicago + I like the value here with Illinois-Chicago in Wednesday's matchup against Liberty in the semifinals of the CIT. I just feel like UIC isn't getting near enough respect here and I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are without leading scorer Dikembe Dixon. He didn't play in either of their first two games in this tournament and they won by 23 as a mere 5-point favorite against St Francis-PA and followed that up with a 83-81 win at Austin Peay as a 4-point dog. UIC put up 80+ in both wins and have now scored 75 or more in 10 of their last 11. Liberty put up 84 in their most recent game against Central Michigan, but that was more of a result of them taking advantage of a bad Chippewas defense. They also shot lights out, hitting on 56% of their attempts. Prior to that Liberty had eclipsed 70 points just once in their previous 7 games. UIC is allowing just 72.6 ppg on the season and have held opponents to 40.7% from the field. Keep in mind UIC played the much tougher schedule this season. I actually think this should be closer to a pick'em. Take Illinois-Chicago! |
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03-27-18 | Pacers -4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Non-Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacers - I love the value here with the Pacers here as a short road favorite against the Warriors. Golden State will be without Durant, Curry and Thompson for this game and have little to nothing to play for down the stretch. The Warriors aren't catching Houston for the No. 1 spot and are all but a lock to take home the No. 2 spot, as they need just 1 more win or 1 more Blazers loss to make it official. We saw a similar scenario play out in their last game at home against the Jazz and they were no match for Utah in a 19-point loss. I think we could easily see Indiana win here by double-digits. The Pacers clinched a playoff spot in their last game, but still have plenty to play for as they are just 1.5-games behind the Cavs for 3rd and a mere 4-games ahead of Miami for 8th in the east. Pacers are 23-11 ATS as a favorite this season and the Warriors are a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. Golden State has also failed to cover each of their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Take Indiana! |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova UNDER 153 | Top | 78-90 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'Sweet 16' NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's Sweet 16 action that has No. 1 seed Villanova taking on No. 5 seed West Virginia. Both of these teams have been impressive on the offensive side of the ball. The Mountaineers put up 85 on Murray State and 94 against Marshall. As for the Wildcats, they hung 87 on Radford and 81 on Alabama. I believe those high outputs have created some great value here with the UNDER. Not to say these aren't strong offensive teams, I just feel the level of competition played a big role in those high offensive outputs. I expect to see both sides struggle to find a rhythm offensively in this one. While Villanova has the guards to handle the West Virginia pressure, it's likely to still cause some problems just because they haven't really played against it. The Mountaineers simply aren't going to shoot 50% from the field against this Villanova defense like they did in the first two rounds. Note that UNDER is 8-2-1 in the Mountaineers last 11 games after they scored 90 or more points. The UNDER is also 12-3 in West Virginia's last 15 as an underdog and 9-1 in their last 10 vs teams that average 84 or more points/game. Take the UNDER!  |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan OVER 134.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 53 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'Sweet 16' VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on A&M/Michigan OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Thursday's Sweet 16 matchup between Texas A&M and Michigan. The Wolverines came out flat offensively in their first round game against Montana (didn't score in first 4 minutes, trailed 10-0), which was to be expected after the long layoff between that game and the Big Ten Tournament. They then were matched up with an elite Houston defense in the Round of 32 and ended up needing a last-second 3-pointer to pull out a 64-63 win. Prior to these two Tournament games, Michigan had scored 75+ in each of their previous 5 games and I look for the offense to return to form here against Texas A&M. The Aggies limited UNC to just 65 points and 33.3% shooting, but put up 86 on the Tar Heels. Simply put this total has been set too low given the talent offensively on both sides. OVER is 13-4 in Michigan's last 17 road games after allowing 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last 2 games and 9-2 in their last 11 road games after playing 2 straight as a favorite. OVER is also 9-2 in the Wolverines last 11 vs a team that is shooting 45% or better from the field at least 15 games into the season and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 on the road vs teams who average 17 or fewer fouls/game. Take the OVER! |
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03-18-18 | Clemson v. Auburn -1 | Top | 84-53 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tourn Rd of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn - I love the value here with Auburn at basically a pick'em against Clemson in Sunday's Round of 32 action out of the Midwest Region. Auburn won their opener 62-58 over Charleston. That was a lot closer than most expected, as they were a 9.5-point favorite, but that's a much better Charleston team than most people realize. It didn't help that Auburn shot about as poor as they could, hitting just 35.6% from the field. Clemson had a little easier time in their first game, as they beat New Mexico State 79-68 behind a red-hot 55.9% shooting. I just think the contrasting victories have created some big time value here with Auburn. I look for Clemson to have a much tougher time offensively against this Auburn defense, while I expect Auburn to be much more efficient from the offensive side of the ball. Clemson hasn't exactly excelled in this spot. They are just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when playing on the road in their 2nd game in a week. Take Auburn! |
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03-18-18 | Nevada v. Cincinnati OVER 136.5 | Top | 75-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament NO LIMIT Top Play on Cincy OVER I love the value here with the OVER in Sunday's Round of 32 action that has Nevada taking on Cincinnati. It's no secret that the Bearcats are a great defensive team and I think that is definitely playing into this low number. The key here is the matchup and unfamiliarity with this explosive Nevada offense, which features 3 big time offensive players in Jordan Caroline and the Martin twins. This is a team that scores 83.2 ppg and doesn't play at a really fast tempo, which speaks to how efficient they are. The other big key is they don't turn the ball over and shoot close to 40% from behind the 3-point line. While I could see the Bearcats struggling to contain this Nevada offense, they should be able to put up a big number of their own against this Wolf Pack defense. Nevada hasn't allowed fewer than 74 points in each of their last 6 games. OVER is 5-1 in the Wolf Pack's last 6 non-confernece games, and 8-2 in their last 10 games played on a neutral site. OVER is also 33-15 in Nevada's last 48 vs great defensive teams that are giving up 64 or fewer points/game at least 15 games into the season. Take the OVER! |
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03-16-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County +22.5 v. Virginia | Top | 74-54 | Win | 100 | 81 h 8 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament No Limit TOP PLAY on UMBC + I love the value here with the Maryland-Baltimore Country catching a huge number against No. 1 overall seed Virginia. Most people probably didn't even know UMBC was a school and that unfamiliarity combined with the Cavaliers being ranked No. 1 overall will have the public backing Virginia. I think the books were well aware of this action and have inflated this line to where there's tremendous value with the underdog. You hear it all the time, great guard play is critical in the NCAA Tournament. Well the Retrievers are led by their backcourt of Jairus Lyles and K.J. Maura. Both of which are very quick off the dribble and have great instincts on defense. They create a lot of easy looks from deep with their penetration and generate a lot of steals on the defense, allowing UMBC to get out in transition. I know Virginia doesn't have a ton of holes, but I think the pressure of the Retrievers and the Cavaliers potentially not giving this team their full amount of respect with much bigger games looming, will allow UMBC to keep this game a lot closer than most expert. Take Maryland-Baltimore County! |
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03-16-18 | Marshall +12 v. Wichita State | Top | 81-75 | Win | 100 | 91 h 39 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament Rd of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Marshall + I love the value here with the Thundering Herd as a big dog against the Shockers in Friday's first round action out of the East Region. Marshall's head coach is Dan D'Antoni, who is the brother of Houston Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni. As you might have guessed the two have similar philosophies on the offensive side and want to try and outscore teams by outshooting them from long-distance. It worked really well down the stretch for Marshall, who punched their ticket to the Big Dance by winning the C-USA Tournament. The Thundering Herd average 10-made 3-pointers a game and have 7 different players who shoot 33% or better from deep. That long-range attack helped them average 84.3 ppg. While Wichita State has the offensive fire-power to hang with Marshall and likely ultimately win this game, they are definitely on upset alert. That's because the Shockers aren't as good defensively as they have been in years past. One of their biggest weaknesses was defending the 3-point shot, making this a horrible matchup out of the gates. I think the Thundering Herd give them a scare and maybe win this one outright. Take Marshall! |
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03-15-18 | Stephen F Austin +11.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 72 h 44 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Stephen F Austin + I love the value here with the Lumberjacks catching double-digits against Texas Tech in Thursday's first round action out of the East Region. Stephen F. Austin has a lot of great qualities for success in the NCAA Tournament. The Lumberjacks have great depth and balance on the offensive side of the ball. They also bring the intensity on the defensive side of the ball and as a result led the nation in turnover percentage and steels. That pressure often leads to a lot of good looks on the offensive side of the ball, especially from long-range, where Stephen F. Austin is deadly from. As for Texas Tech, this is a team that really lost its mojo down the final leg of the season. The Red Raiders went just 2-5 over their final 7 games and the two wins could have easily been losses, as both came by 4-points or less. Rarely do you see a team that comes into the Big Dance struggling flip the switch and go on a deep run. If Texas Tech struggles with the pressure of the Lumberjacks, they not only aren't going to cover, but they may lose this game outright. Take Stephen F. Austin! |
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03-14-18 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. New Orleans -3.5 | Top | 74-77 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
5* CBI Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on New Orleans - I love the value here with the Privateers laying a short number against the Vaqueros in Wednesday's CBI action. Both of these teams finished the season poorly, but I still think New Orleans is the far superior team here. Looking back at non-conference play, we see both teams played at SMU. While both teams lost, the Privateers kept it respectable in a 13-point defeat, while the Vaqueros got annihilated by 31 points. The other big key here is UT-Rio Grande Valley was not good on the road and they come in a mere 1-9-1 ATS over the last 11 road games. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games The Privateers were a solid 9-3 on their home court and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss by more than 20 points (lost by 22 to Sam Houston St in conference tournament). Take New Orleans! |
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03-10-18 | USC v. Arizona -3 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Arizona - I love the value here with the Wildcats laying a short number against the Trojans in the Pac-12 Tournament title game on Saturday. You have to give USC props for how well they have played without one of their best players in Bennie Boatwright, but I don't see the run continuing here against one of the best teams in the country, especially now that the Trojans are playing their 3rd game in 3 days.  Arizona has won 4 straight and are 7-1 in their last 8. Any concerns about this team being hurt by all the off the court drama that's going on can be thrown out the window. If anything, it has brought this team together and have them playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. The Wildcats made easy work of the Trojans in the lone meeting this season, winning by 14 on their home floor. It could have been a lot worse, as Arizona shot 56% from the field and finished with a +18 edge on the boards. Those are two great signs that the Wildcats are the far superior team and will have no problem getting the win here. Take Arizona! |
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03-09-18 | UCF v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 56-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider TOP PLAY on Houston - I like the value here with the Cougars in Friday's American Athletic action, as I think Houston wins this by double-digits no problem. The Cougars have been one of the best kept secrets in the country. Houston finished 24-6 and were 14-4 in the AAC. They went 8-1 over their last 9 games and several of those were close. UCF comes in off back-to-back wins over Tulane and East Carolina, with the win over the Pirates coming in yesterday's AAC Tournament action. That's important to note, as Houston got a bye and will have a big rest advantage here with the Knights playing for the 2nd time in 2 days. The only meeting between these two teams this season came at UCF, which the Cougars won 69-65. The Knights are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing 2 straight games as a favorite. Take Houston! |
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