Free Sports Picks For Saturday March 7th 2020

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Cincinnati +7

The Cincinnati Bearcats are flying under the radar this season after losing QB Sorsby to Texas Tech.  Scott Satterfield is fighting for his job and the Bearcats are responding thus far with an impressive 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.

After beating Boston College 34-15 as 7-point favorites and Western Carolina 62-10 as 36.5-point favorites, the Bearcats suffered a bit of a letdown leading into Big 12 play.  They only beat Miami Ohio 35-31 as 15.5-point favorites on a neutral.  That's also a sneaky rivalry game that Miami gets up for every year.

The Bearcats proved they were for real with a 31-26 upset win as 6-point home dogs against Kansas State in their Big 12 opener last week.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Bearcats put up 8.5 yards per play and rushed for 271 yards on the Wildcats.  They held K-State to 5.6 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.9 yards per play.  That's a K-State team that beat Washington State 34-7.

Arizona just played Washington State last week and was life and death in a 34-24 road victory as 10.5-point favorites.  The Wildcats fell to 0-4 ATS as they have been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They failed to cover against Northern Arizona and Northern Illinois, and they lost 28-17 at BYU as 6.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats have been without their best WR in Gio Richardson since the BYU game and he is questionable to return this week.  They have cluster injuries at TE and will be without Cole Rusk.  They also have cluster injuries at LB and safety defensively.  

That will make it difficult to contain this impressive Cincinnati rushing attack, which has produced 270 rushing yards per game and 6.5 per carry.  QB JC French is completing 74.5% of his passes with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt.  He is also proving to be a dual-threat with 164 rushing yards and 4 TD on the ground.

This line should be much closer to 3 than 7, so getting a full TD with the Bearcats is great value this week.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 8-plus years! He is riding a 7202-6275 Run L3307 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $333,170! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023! He finished as the No. 2 Ranked Overall Capper in 2024 with his $1,000/game players up $196,180 since January 1st, 2022!

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Jack is off to a 32-19 CFB Start this season to add to his 64-37 CFB Run since last season and currently the No. 2 Ranked CFB Capper in 2026 as a result! He has delivered a HOT 70-38 Run L21 Days to add to his 625-507 Run on all premium plays since February 11th! This money train stays right on track with Jack's Saturday College Football 9-Pack for $69.95! Leading the charge are FOUR 20* Top Plays along with 5 totals in all as he adds to his 413-315 Run on Football Totals!

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Ricky's 1* play on WIN.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Bruins are 1-3 in their last 4 games.

- The Jets are 6-4 in their last 10 home games.

- The Jets are 3-1 in the last 4 home head to head meetings.

Verdict: The value is on the home favorite.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 10/1:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Take the Tennessee Titans plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens. Tennessee (0-3) remains winless this season after their 12-7 loss on the road in New York against the Giants as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three games in a row. And while first-year head coach Robert Saleh has a 23-35 ATS mark in his head coaching career mostly with the New York Jets, those Jets teams covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games played in October which suggests his ability to make adjustments after the first month of the season. Baltimore (2-1) comes off a 34-31 last second victory against Dallas on Sunday in that game played in Brazil as a 3-point favorite. The Ravens return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when favored. Take Tennessee plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 22 of 31 (71%) NFL run continued after DELIVERING their 25* NFC Game of the Month with Chicago as part of their SEVENTH NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEP this season! Frank is on a 30 of 42 (71%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays and a 25 of 32 (78%) football run! Frank is also on a 13 of 21 (62%) NFL TOTALS TEAR that fuels his 34 of 54 (63%) NFL over/under streak — and now he furthers his 11 of 15 (73%) NFL Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* AFC North Total of the Month for tonight’s Pittsburgh-Cleveland O/U winner on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Sunday's Free NFL Pick

PLAY ON: Dolphins +10.5 

This is a FREE PLAY on the Golden State Valkyries.

It's do-or-die in this first round series after Dallas battled for a 108-100 OT Game 2 win, led by 45 points from Arike Ogunbowale.

Golden State got 36 points, five boards, seven assists and four steals from Gabby Williams in a wasted effort.

Regardless, Dallas is still only 7-14 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 13-9 ATS at home (17-5 SU).

Look for Golden State to go up early and to keep the proverbial foot on the gas pedal from start to finish; consider the Valkyries.

Good luck, NP

1* NFL - Cowboys/Texans FREE PICK on Texans -3

1* Free Pick on Seahawks -7

The Chargers are 0-3 and averaging just 14.7 points a game.

Now they fly to Seattle to face the defending champion Seahawks, who are angry after losing a close one in Washington.

Start with the quarterbacks.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert is completing 59.1 percent of his passes with a 3:4 TD:INT ratio through three games.

His supporting cast is thin.

Tight ends Charlie Kolar and David Njoku are both out, and right tackle Trey Pipkins III is on IR.

That matters against a Seattle defense that has already given up the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Los Angeles has not been close to competitive.

They lost 26-14 to the Cardinals, 26-14 to the Raiders, then fell in Buffalo despite forcing 5 turnovers.

When your defense hands you 5 takeaways and you still lose, the offense is broken.

Seattle is a different story.

The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 a game and allowing 16.7.

Their only loss came on a pick-six in the final minutes at Washington.

Before that they went into Arizona and won 31-7.

Sam Darnold is back under center and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on the field in this one.

He takes a 27-405-6 line on 36 targets into Week 4 with three straight games over 120 receiving yards.

The Chargers have no answer for him.

Good team at home off a loss against a bad team that cannot score.

Seven points is not enough.

I like the Seahawks

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Arizona State -3.5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Arizona State as 3.5-point home favorites over Baylor Saturday.  This will be a 10:30 EST kick and an electric atmosphere for a night game in Tempe.  The Sun Devils will be recharged and ready to go after a bye week following two grueling games against Texas A&M on the road and Kansas in London.  They split those games but deserved better against Texas A&M.  They held the Aggies to 255 yards and outgained them by 114 yards in a fluky final.  Baylor's 17-16 loss to Auburn in the opener doesn't look as good now as Auburn has struggled this season.  The 23-13 win over Colorado last week was misleading too as they were outgained by 26 yards by the Buffaloes, who were playing with a backup QB.  This will be Baylor's first true road game and their toughest game to date in my opinion.  Take Arizona State.

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1* FREE INFO PLAY Badreddine Diani -120

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Virginia -2.5

The Florida State Seminoles are just not good.  Mike Norvell will be gone soon and the team knows it.  The 2-2 start this season has been alarmingly bad outside of the 14-point loss to Alabama, which they still gave up 567 yards and 8.6 per play.  Their 27-24 loss to SMU was a joke as they were outplayed badly giving up 585 yards and 8.7 per play to the Mustangs and should have lost by more, but were +3 in turnovers.  They only outgained New Mexico State by 100 yards in their 34-17 win as 31.5-point home favorites.  They only outgained Central Arkansas by 169 yards in their 34-7 win, not coming close to covering as 46.5-point favorites.  Virginia is proving its run to the ACC title game last year was no fluke, opening 3-1 this season with its only loss to West Virginia.  The Cavaliers covered the spread in their three other games beating NC State 34-8 and outgaining them by 245 yards.  They beat Norfolk State 59-3 as 46.5-point favorites and Delaware 42-3 as 19.5-point favorites.  We are getting the Cavaliers at a discount as only 2.5-point favorites against Florida State this week.  Give me Virginia.

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1* Free Sharp Play on Slovakia -155

Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take the Over in Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska Cornhuskers (4 p.m., Saturday, October 3, FS1). We faded Maryland with last week’s free play, and the Terrapins delivered a rough performance in a 54-3 home loss to UCLA. That result has turned up the heat on their head coach, and we expect a better offensive effort this Saturday. The bigger concern remains Maryland’s defense, which surrendered 34 points to Virginia Tech before allowing 54 to UCLA. Nebraska has been piling up points, scoring 49, 56, 34, and 31 in its first four games of 2026. With the Cornhuskers rolling offensively and Maryland looking to respond, we like this matchup to go over the total. Back the Over. Don’t miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Card, featuring top plays in football, hockey, UFC, and soccer. Sign up now and put 54 years of handicapping experience to work for you!

It seems that every year during college football I get us all paid on Friday Nights. Well, this Friday I have two big premium releases. And Saturday will be our biggest PAYDAY in as far back as I can remember. If you only do one thing in college football this weekend, you must follow Joe D’Amico on Friday and Saturday. FRIDAY 2-0, SATURDAY 8-0. This weekend in NCAAF we will be a PERFECT 10-0.

Friday’s Free Winner: Northwestern.

Game 112.

5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST.

If you would’ve asked me prior to the season starting who I would like it in a Penn State/Northwestern matchup with the same situation and a three-point spread, I would’ve emphatically said the Nittany Lions. However, after a month in the rear view, I have changed my outlook. Yes, most people would come in on Penn State this week following their come from ahead home loss at the hands of Wisconsin last week 24-20. I mean you’re supposed to come in with this team because they cannot afford to lose back-to-back conference contests. Their defense has played well yielding just 11.5 PPG and grabbing five takeaways. But I feel their offense leaves a lot to be desired. I am also aware Northwestern owns a run defense ranking among the poorest in the nation. But they are only yielding 18.0 points per game, and have snagged three takeaways themselves. Offensively they account for over 32.7 PPG and have only coughed the ball up once. They’ve got a heck of a quarterback in Aidan Chiles, who has a completion rate of 70.7%, has thrown for over 807 yards, with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. They do have a couple of decent ball-carriers in their backfield, despite owning a rushing attack that has not been what we are used to seeing. Last season saw the Wildcats prevailing over the Nittany Lions on the road 22-21 as nearly a three touchdown ‘Dog. As a matter of fact, they’ve covered four of the last six meetings in this rivalry. Yes, this number is a little short. And yes, Penn State should bounce back and make a statement here. But I just don’t feel they have the talent to do so. Take Northwestern. Thank you.

Colts -3

Indy has the cleaner path to controlling this game. Washington is allowing more than 280 passing yards per game, and opposing QB's have consistently found room against a defense that has surrendered 11 TD's through three weeks. The Commanders are also allowing TD's on 75% of opposing red-zone trips. That gives Daniel Jones a favorable matchup, but Jonathan Taylor is where I expect Indy to establish control. Washington is coming off an emotional win behind Marcus Mariota, while the Colts just handled a physical Houston defense. At only a FG, I'll lay it. Back Indy. Locking this in early. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the COLTS -3. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

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Highmark Stadium gets the early window Sunday, and the number has already done the thing sharps hate. Patriots at Bills opened around Buffalo -3 and is now Bills -6.5, total 48.5, moneyline near -325. The play is Patriots +6.5.

Buffalo is 3-0 and the right side to win the game. They have scored 101 points and allowed 78, 33.7 and 26.0 per game, first and 21st. Yards are 401.7 a game, fourth. The point differential is +23, the margin of victory is 7.7, and the SRS is 0.9 on a soft schedule. Josh Allen is 56 of 86 for 786 yards, 5 passing touchdowns and 2 interceptions, a 65.1 percent completion rate, plus 119 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores on 23 non-kneel carries. That is 11 touchdowns in three weeks from one human. James Cook has 346 yards at 6.0 a carry. Dalton Kincaid has 14 catches for 263 yards. Offensive EPA per play is 0.228, second in the league, and the run game is first in EPA per rush. If you are betting the moneyline, stop reading and take Buffalo.

The spread is a different market. A model that has the Bills winning about 72 percent of the time projects this 27-20 and calls -6.5 a coin flip, 50 percent either way. You do not lay a key number for a coin flip. The line moved from -3 to -6.5 because New England looks broken on offense, and the market overshot the hook.

The Patriots are 1-2. They have scored 36 points and allowed 51, 12.0 and 17.0 per game, 31st and sixth. Yards gained are 307.0, 21st. Yards allowed are 278.3, fifth, including 170.0 passing yards allowed, second. Point differential is -15. Offensive EPA per play is -0.130, 28th. Drake Maye’s EPA per play is around -0.070, 28th among quarterbacks. Points per drive are 0.97, worst in the league. Their only win was a 20-point effort against Pittsburgh. The other two weeks they looked like a team that forgot the end zone existed. That part is not a mirage.

The part the number is ignoring is the other side of the ball. New England’s defense is 12th in EPA per play and fourth in EPA per dropback. Buffalo’s defense is 25th in yards allowed at 361.3, 27th in passing yards allowed at 254.3, and 25th in EPA per play. They allow 2.52 points per drive, 25th. After giving up 31 in each of the first two weeks, they had one cleaner game against the Chargers and the market treated it like a rebirth. It was one week. This defense still leaks, and a leaky defense against a bad offense is how dogs cover without ever leading.

Third downs tell the same story. Buffalo converts 54.5 percent, New England 32.5 percent. Buffalo has 13 touchdowns, New England has 3. Buffalo has 8 rushing scores. If Cook and Allen live in the red zone, the Patriots are not winning this. They do not have to. A 24-17 or 27-20 is a winner on +6.5 and a loser on the moneyline. Last 10 meetings between these two have gone over 7 times, which fits a Bills team that scores and a Bills defense that gives some of it back. Weather is a shrug. Cloudy, about 61 degrees, wind around 9. Not a lake-effect alibi.

Bet the road dog when an AFC East favorite opens at -3 and closes at -6.5 or higher. The dog’s record in that spot since the 2023 season: 9-5 (64.3 percent) against an average spread of 6.5. (+2.9 unit$, ROI=19.3%)

Bet the points when the home favorite allows 25 or more points per game and the total is 48.5 or lower. The dog’s record since the 2024 season: 14-9 (60.9 percent) against an average spread of 6.0. (+3.1 unit$, ROI=12.7%)

Bet the under when New England is on the road and scoring under 15 points per game. The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 6-3 (66.7 percent) with an average over/under of 43.5. (+2.1 unit$, ROI=21.0%)

That last one is a lean, not the card. The total at 48.5 is a pass. Buffalo can hang 30 by itself, and the series has been a fireworks show more often than a rock fight. The side is the bet.

The hold is obvious. If Allen runs in two more scores and Cook keeps ripping off 6.0 a carry, -6.5 is the correct side and this ticket is a donation to the Orchard Park gift shop. New England has one passing touchdown all year. One. A defense can only keep you close for so long when the offense is producing less than a point per drive. That is why this is one unit, juice no worse than -105. If the number drips back to +7, buy it. If it snaps to +5.5, you are late. Shop +6.5. Let the hook do the work.

Pick was recorded at +6.5 ---with +7 being even better. 

My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Hamilton at 7 pm et on Friday.

Tonight is the night the Redblacks finally win their first game of the season. This will actually mark the first meeting between these two teams this season and it represents Ottawa's best shot at notching a victory this season and avoiding the embarrassment of a stunning winless campaign. While Ottawa continues to lose games, it has managed to cover the spread in two of its last three contests. Two of those games certainly could have gone either way with the margin of victory three points or less. Hamilton has lost five straight games, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch. Off a hard-fought two-point defeat in its 'upset' bid at Edmonton last week, I think it will have a difficult time getting back up for this one. Take Ottawa (8*).

Bruins vs Jets NHL Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Boston Bruins have the more complete roster on paper, led by Pastrnak up front and a Vezina-caliber goalie in Swayman behind a deep group. Winnipeg is working in new pieces on the back end and Boston's top six and power play units carry real firepower. I like that edge on the road in a game that could be decided by special teams.

The market is treating this as close to a coin flip with a slight lean to the home side, and I think Boston is the better team at this price. Winnipeg's high-end talent is real, but the Bruins have more reliable depth and the goaltending to keep a tight game from slipping away. I will take the Bruins to win outright.

The Bet: Bruins ML (3%).

Since 2014, Mike Lundin has built a reputation as one of the sharpest sports betting analysts in the world. Heading into Friday, he's on a 23-13 All-Sports run since Sep 19!

For Friday, Mike has a 4% NHL TOP PLAY of the Day and a 4% MLB BOOKIE BU$TER TOP PLAY!

1*

Temple +6.5 at USF (Raymond James Stadium)

USF opens American Conference play at 4-0 but is only 2-2 ATS. Temple is 1-3 straight up and 3-1 ATS. The Owls losses to Penn State, Toledo (OT) and Army could all have gone the other way, and they've covered everything except last week. Keeler's teams play close as dogs, and Temple leads the all-time series 6-4.

USF

 Defense is the story: 14.0 points allowed per game (21st nationally) and 322 yards. D.J. Crowther is the engine on offense with 325 rush yards and 5 TDs. Michael Van Buren Jr. has 0 INTs, but the offense is feast-or-famine at 350.5 yards per game (105th).

Temple

 The Owls run it at 220.3 yards per game (24th), but USF is tough to run on, allowing 121.8 per game and just one rushing TD all year. Temple's defense is leaky (133rd in third-down rate) and the O-line has some injury concerns. The one thing that worries me is the red zone. Temple has scored on every trip inside the 20, and USF has allowed a score on every opponent trip. It's a small sample, but it's a real tell.

The total

 USF just won 14-6 and Temple lost 21-17. USF's last two competitive games (Army and BGSU) totaled 52 and 20 points, and the number has fallen from the mid-50s to 48 for a reason. 

The plays

Temple +6.5 (NoVig). You might be able to wait for a 7, but I don't think we get there.

Under 49.5 (Rivers)

1H Under 24.5. It's moved to 23.5, but I don't mind paying the extra juice for the full point.

Let's cash some tickets!