2026 South Point 400 Betting Odds & Race Preview
2026 NASCAR South Point 400 Race Prediction coverage is here as the Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the second time this season. CappersPicks.com breaks down the Vegas contenders, betting odds, track history, and five outright NASCAR picks for Sunday evening.
Kyle Larson rolls into Las Vegas after dominating Kansas, while Denny Hamlin returns to a track where he’s been awfully comfortable.
The sportsbook isn’t asleep. Larson opens +350 and Hamlin +400, so we’re not exactly shopping in the clearance aisle.
South Point 400 Race Details
Founded: 2018
Race: 2026 NASCAR South Point 400
Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
Time: 5:30 PM ET
Broadcast: USA
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NASCAR Betting Preview
The NASCAR Cup Series Chase hits the halfway mark with Las Vegas Motor Speedway hosting the South Point 400 about seven miles south of the Las Vegas Strip.
Denny Hamlin won the Pennzoil 400 here in March and sits second in the standings. Austin Cindric is climbing after a second-place finish last weekend.
Kyle Larson arrives with even more momentum after flattening the field at Kansas. He won the race and both stages, led the most laps, and ran the fastest lap. That gives Larson two victories and four top-five finishes during the playoffs after going through the regular season without a win.
Apparently he was saving the good stuff.
South Point 400 Betting Strategy
Recent Las Vegas races haven’t exactly been random. A small group of familiar names keeps finding its way to Victory Lane, which makes this a week where I’m perfectly comfortable shopping near the top of the board.
After 20-plus years of betting these things, I’ve learned that ignoring obvious track strength simply because the number isn’t pretty can get expensive. Nobody hands out bonus points for finding the cleverest loser.
William Byron +1000 and Joey Logano +1400 give us some breathing room. John Hunter Nemechek at +35000 gives us enough room to build a damn house.
Big odds are fun. Cashing tickets is considerably more fun. Sometimes the damn favorite is the favorite for a reason.
Complete NASCAR South Point 400 Betting Odds
Kyle Larson opens as the +350 favorite, followed by Denny Hamlin +400 and Christopher Bell +500. William Byron and Ryan Blaney are the first drivers to hit double digits at +1000.
- Kyle Larson +350
- Denny Hamlin +400
- Christopher Bell +500
- Chase Briscoe +800
- Tyler Reddick +900
- William Byron +1000
- Ryan Blaney +1000
- Ty Gibbs +1400
- Joey Logano +1400
- Carson Hocevar +1500
- Chase Elliott +2000
- Bubba Wallace +2000
- Austin Cindric +3000
- Ross Chastain +4000
- Chris Buescher +4000
- Brad Keselowski +4000
- Josh Berry +6000
- Daniel Suarez +6000
- Alex Bowman +6000
- Ryan Preece +6500
South Point 400 History & Past Winners
2025 South Point 400 Recap
Denny Hamlin punched his ticket to the Championship 4 by winning the 2025 South Point 400. He passed two cars over the final 10 laps, then overtook Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Chase Briscoe with four laps remaining.
Hamlin held off Kyle Larson for the 60th Cup victory of his career.
Four laps. That’s all it took to turn a good afternoon into a very expensive one for anybody holding the wrong ticket.
Past South Point 400 Winners
- 2025 – #11 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
- 2024 – #22 Joey Logano – Team Penske
- 2023 – #5 Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports
- 2022 – #22 Joey Logano – Team Penske
- 2021 – #11 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
- 2020 – #1 Kurt Busch – Chip Ganassi Racing
- 2019 – #19 Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing
- 2018 – #2 Brad Keselowski – Team Penske
2026 South Point 400 Free Picks
My 2026 NASCAR South Point 400 Race Prediction card starts with Kyle Larson +350 and Denny Hamlin +400. Yes, we’re eating some chalk again.
William Byron +1000 and Joey Logano +1400 give us two better payouts without wandering into fantasyland. John Hunter Nemechek +35000 is the tiny bomb at the bottom.
Five outrights. Plenty.
I’ve been doing this too long to convince myself that adding another six drivers somehow makes the first five smarter. That’s not handicapping; that’s collecting names.
Kyle Larson +350 NASCAR Pick
Kyle Larson gets the first ticket after reminding everybody at Kansas what his ceiling looks like. He won the race, swept Stages 1 and 2, led the most laps, and recorded the fastest lap.
Las Vegas hasn’t exactly been a problem either. Larson owns three career victories here and has won twice over the last 10 races. He’s finished inside the top two in more than half of the Next Gen races at Vegas and averages a top-five finish when removing races where incidents got involved.
This spring he finished second in each of the opening stages and led 62 laps before settling for seventh.
+350 isn’t sexy. Neither is paying full price for anything, but Larson’s current form and Vegas résumé give me enough reason to swallow the number.
My 2026 South Point 400 Free Picks start with Kyle Larson +350.
Denny Hamlin +400 NASCAR Pick
If Larson is 1A, Denny Hamlin is 1B.
Hamlin is going for three straight wins at Las Vegas. He’s won three of the last 10 races here while producing four top-five finishes and seven top-10s.
At some point, we can stop searching for reasons to make this complicated. Hamlin keeps winning here, he’s +400, and I’m betting him again.
If he does it a third straight time, I don’t want to be the genius explaining why +400 wasn’t exciting enough.
Denny Hamlin +400 is outright No. 2.
William Byron +1000 NASCAR Pick
William Byron gives us our first double-digit price. He won at Las Vegas in the spring of 2023, and his recent runs here suggest that trophy probably undersells how good he’s been.
Byron finished third this spring. Last fall he won Stage 1, finished third in Stage 2, and led 55 laps before a collision coming to pit road wrecked the afternoon and left him 36th.
I’ve lost enough NASCAR bets over the years to know the box score occasionally lies through its teeth.
At +1000, I’ll take another shot on a driver who has already won here and had race-winning speed last fall before everything went sideways.
William Byron +1000 makes the card.
Joey Logano +1400 NASCAR Pick
Joey Logano has won twice over the last 10 races at Las Vegas, and the veteran has a habit of saving some of his better work for the Chase.
At +1400, I don’t need him to be the fastest car when they unload. I need him hanging around when strategy, pit stops, and late-race decisions start separating contenders from everybody else.
We’ve seen him finish the job here before.
Fourteen-to-one is enough for me to find out whether he can do it again.
Joey Logano +1400 is outright No. 4.
John Hunter Nemechek +35000 Longshot Pick
And now we get stupid.
Responsibly stupid.
John Hunter Nemechek is +35000, so nobody needs to confuse this with the Larson wager. He’s finished inside the top 20 in six of his last seven races here, finished 13th at Kansas on a similar track type, and popped a ninth-place finish in the fall 2024 Vegas race.
Does that mean he’s likely to win Sunday? Of course not.
He’s 350-to-1, not hiding in witness protection.
Huge prices only interest me when there’s at least some evidence underneath them. Nemechek gives us enough for the smallest wager on the card.
Give me a very small John Hunter Nemechek +35000 swing.
South Point 400 Betting Picks & Longshots
Best Mid-Tier & Longshot NASCAR Bets
Christopher Bell +500, Chase Briscoe +800, Tyler Reddick +900, and Ryan Blaney +1000 fill the space around our shorter-priced picks. Carson Hocevar follows at +1500, with Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace at +2000.
Austin Cindric +3000 gets my attention farther down after his second-place finish last weekend. Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher, and Brad Keselowski are each +4000.
There are good drivers everywhere. That’s precisely why I’m not betting all of them.
At 350-to-1, we’re buying possibility, not certainty. If you’re betting a longshot like he’s the mortgage payment, we’ve already screwed this up.
How to Bet the South Point 400
Outrights aren’t the only way to bet Las Vegas. Top-5s, Top-10s, driver matchups, stage markets, and live betting let us use a strong driver without requiring him to win.
A driver can have an excellent afternoon and still never seriously threaten for the trophy. Don’t make an outright ticket do the job of a Top-10 bet.
That’s one of those lessons NASCAR will happily teach you until the tuition finally becomes expensive enough.
Las Vegas Practice & Qualifying
I’m not filling the rest of the card before seeing the cars on track. Track history matters, but the car they unload this weekend matters more than what the same number did six months ago.
A poor starting position doesn’t automatically kill an outright bet if the long-run speed is there. Sometimes it improves the number.
Show me which cars hold their pace and which drivers can work through traffic. Then we can go shopping again.
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South Point 400 Longshot Odds
Most of the deeper South Point 400 odds make more sense to me in placement props or matchups than as outright winners.
- Austin Cindric +3000
- Ross Chastain +4000
- Chris Buescher +4000
- Brad Keselowski +4000
- Josh Berry +6000
- Daniel Suarez +6000
- Alex Bowman +6000
- Ryan Preece +6500
- Shane van Gisbergen +150000
- Zane Smith +15000
- Erik Jones +20000
- Riley Herbst +25000
- Michael McDowell +25000
- Connor Zilisch +25000
- Austin Dillon +25000
- Austin Hill +30000
- A.J. Allmendinger +30000
- Noah Gragson +35000
- John Hunter Nemechek +35000
- Todd Gilliland +50000
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +50000
- Cole Custer +70000
- Ty Dillon +100000
- Cody Ware +100000
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South Point 400 Live Betting
Live betting is where I’ll leave myself some room Sunday. If the pre-race read matches what we’re seeing on the track, we can attack from there instead of guessing at every possible market beforehand.
Sunday gives us several hours to find another bet. There is absolutely no prize for placing all of them before the green flag.
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NASCAR on X
The Strip brings the lights. We bring the speed.
Two Vegas Aces look to separate themselves from the pack. pic.twitter.com/1NsOFQ6AXV
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 29, 2026
2026 South Point 400 Race Prediction: Final Thoughts
My 2026 NASCAR South Point 400 Race Prediction gives us Kyle Larson +350, Denny Hamlin +400, William Byron +1000, Joey Logano +1400, and John Hunter Nemechek +35000.
Larson and Hamlin give us the Vegas monsters. Byron and Logano bring better prices with legitimate track history, and Nemechek is the tiny 350-to-1 grenade I’m willing to toss.
Five is enough. I don’t need half the garage working against the other half of my betting card.
Good luck this weekend, and check back every race week for more FREE NASCAR picks, odds, and betting predictions from CappersPicks.com.
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