Free Week 17 Prediction: Commanders vs. Browns NFL Odds
Looking for Washington Commanders vs. Cleveland Browns Free NFL Week 17 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Commanders taking on the Browns on Sunday, January 1st, 2023 at FedEx Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Washington Cleveland Matchup.
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NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
Washington Commanders (7-7-1) vs. Cleveland Browns (6-9)
Date: Sunday, January 1st, 2023
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
NFL Week 17 ATS Betting Lines: Commanders -2.5 (-110) | Browns +2.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 17 Moneyline Odds: Commanders -132 | Browns +109
NFL Week 17 NFL Betting Total: O/U 40.5
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Washington needs a win to preserve their playoff standing against Detroit, Seattle and suddenly Green Bay, all nipping at their heels.
Week 17 isn’t usually the time for a QB controversy, but that’s exactly where Washington finds themselves, in the midst of a playoff berth no less. It sounds like they’ll go back to Carson Wentz, too. They get a downtrodden opponent in the Browns so Washington has a reasonable path to clinching.
Cleveland may be asking themselves if the Watson trade was worth everything they gave up. When you sell your draft chest and your morals you at least expect to get wins in return. A rocky offseason is likely ahead for the tepid Browns.
Washington Commanders
Commanders beat writers certainly seem confident that Wentz will be tabbed as the starter this week so we’ll work under that premise. Wentz split the huddle with Heinicke in Santa Clara on Sunday, going 12/16 for 123 yards and a score.
Wentz was sacked more in less games than Heinicke so it’s fair to say he may hold the ball too long. Per RBSDM.com, Wentz ranked near the bottom of the league in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) at -3%. Comparatively, Heinicke comes in at 9th in the league at +1.6%.
So, all of this to say that Wentz is a downgrade to the offense. We simply have to expect less because Wentz is leading the huddle. DVOA wasn’t a fan of Washington even under Heinicke’s tenure, and EPA since week 14 says they’re the 24th best offense, for what it’s worth.
The backfield struggled against San Fran’s juggernaut defense, but draw a massive break this week in facing Cleveland’s porous run defense. Though they are no longer the league’s worst, they still rank 30th in run D by DVOA.
Washington’s defense is still pretty well liked and is usually counted on to keep them in the game. Their line ranks 7th in adjusted line yards and have only allowed 20.9 ppg this season.
Cleveland Browns
Since Watson’s week 13 return against Houston, the Browns have averaged 15 ppg and looked mostly hapless. They rank just ahead of the likes of Chicago, Houston and Tennessee in terms of EPA/play during that time frame also.
Nick Chubb is still Nick Chubb though. DVOA calls the Browns a top 8 rushing unit in the league and they can mask some of Watson’s inefficiencies by moving the chains on the ground. Washington’s front may prevent that from being true this week though.
Even in Cleveland’s 27 point output against Houston, all of the touchdowns were scored from special teams or the defense. It has been a massive struggle to score since Watson’s return so we should expect more of the same this week.
Their hope is obviously that Watson returns to form, but until that happens its on the defense to keep them alive in each contest. Wentz is an upgrade over Andy Dalton, Davis Mills and Tyler Huntley so perhaps their numbers are a little deceiving. The Browns are 26th in pressure rate, leaving them unable to exploit Wentz’ biggest vulnerability.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland’s last 10 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington’s last 6 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington’s last 13 games
4* Washington Commanders vs. Cleveland Browns Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: WAS -2.5
I don’t love the direction of the Commanders under Wentz, but having watched the Browns over the last four weeks, I don’t see them turning it around.
Though the Commanders haven’t been world beaters at home, Cleveland is 2-2 ATS as road underdogs, failing to cover by an average of 5.1 points.
Washington also has a postseason trip on the line so their focus will be unified and on this game. 3 is a key number, and by getting it at 2.5 we are getting value on this line.
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