Free Week 17 Prediction: Giants vs. Colts NFL Odds
Looking for New York Giants vs. Indianapolis Colts Free NFL Week 17 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Giants taking on the Colts on Sunday, January 1st, 2023 at MetLife Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New York Indianapolis Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
New York Giants (8-6-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-10-1)
Date: Sunday, January 1st, 2023
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
NFL Week 17 ATS Betting Lines: Giants -5 (-110) | Colts +5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 17 Moneyline Odds: Giants -234 | Colts +187
NFL Week 17 NFL Betting Total: O/U 39.5
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The Giants look to punch their ticket to the 2022 NFL playoffs against the beleaguered Colts.
A win and they’re in. Controlling your own fate this time of year is everyone’s desire and the Giants certainly do. Playing in front of your home fans for a trip to the playoffs? Even better. Can they get it done against the Colts?
Jeff Saturday may throw his hat into the ring for the head coaching position next year but in the right company, I’m sure he’d admit it’s been harder than he thought it’d be. Indy has lost games in almost every fashion; last night’s 3 point performance against the Chargers show just how far outclassed the Colts are.
New York Giants
The Giants flipped their script somewhat in Minneapolis, throwing 42 times for 334 yards to the likes of Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins and dump-offs to Barkley. It was a departure from their run heavy scheme in the past few weeks.
So while the Giants don’t have receiving options you’d be jealous of, it’s worth noting they can still be productive. Richie James did have a big drop on a crucial third down though, so the patched together corps does have ultimate limitations.
New York ranks 2nd in EPA/rush in the last two weeks and Barkley doesn’t show signs of slowing down. Though the offense isn’t explosive they do move the chains, it’s just that their lack of explosiveness limits point scoring ability.
The biggest difference from early season Giants and late season Giants is the resurgence of the pass rush. 4 sacks and 11 QB hits is more what Martindale ordered and it showed against Minnesota. Nick Foles struggled under pressure and was sacked 7 times by the Chargers.
DVOA is still not a fan of the Giants defense, ranking them 29th overall and 31st against the rush.
Indianapolis Colts
Foles showed early rapport with Jelani Woods and Michael Pittman but outside of that, there weren’t many positives for the Colts on Monday Night Football.
Zack Moss posted 65 yards on 5.4 ypc against a very poor Chargers run defense. New York is vulnerable to the run all the same, but likely won’t put Indy into a pass heavy game script due to their lack of explosiveness, so Indy can exploit that angle.
The relative size of Indy’s pass catching options can prove to be a problem for most teams, but only if they can fend off the pass rush. Foles didn’t find much time to throw last night and when he did, he had defenders bearing down on him. Indy has the worst offense in the league by DVOA.
The Colts do profile much better defensively though. DVOA says they’re a top-10 unit and if they can disrupt the Giants run game, can put their offensive game script in a knot. New York doesn’t want to throw first, they want to spell the run with the pass. They’re a bit like an old school pitcher that pitches “backwards”, starting with offspeed and location to set up the unimposing fastball.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games when playing NY Giants
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants’s last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
- NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
4* New York Giants vs. Indianapolis Colts Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: NYG -5
The number doesn’t have a ton of value, unfortunately. We’re in a bit of a no man’s land at 5 if we’re siding with the Giants.
New York hasn’t been good at home this season, especially as a favorite, going 2-2 ATS failing to cover by an average of 3.9 points.
But we do have the question of motivation. The Giants can clinch the playoffs at home, whereas the Colts looked cooked and have bad quotes coming out of their organization. Bottom line, I think the Colts are done.
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