Free NFL Pick: Saints vs. Lions Odds
Looking for New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Saints taking on the Lions on 9/13 at Ford Field, in Detroit. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Saints Lions matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions
(6-11) New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions (9-8)
Date: Sep 13, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
NFL Moneyline Odds: Saints +263 | Lions -333 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Saints +7 | Lions -7
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 50
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Saints Lions free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Saints vs. Lions Gameday
The New Orleans Saints open the 2026 regular season on the road against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, September 13, with FOX carrying the game. Kellen Moore begins his second season leading New Orleans, while Dan Campbell returns for his sixth season as Detroit’s head coach.
Both teams are coming off losing seasons, with New Orleans finishing 6-11 and Detroit going 9-8 in 2025. The Saints closed the preseason 1-2 after beating Dallas 27-24 in their finale, while the Lions went 2-1 following victories over Washington and Indianapolis.
Detroit returns home with Jared Goff leading an offense that scored 481 points last season.
There are changes around both quarterbacks entering Week 1. Doug Nussmeier returns as New Orleans’ offensive coordinator after helping Tyler Shough develop during his rookie season, while Drew Petzing begins his first season running Detroit’s offense. Brandon Staley and Kelvin Sheppard return to coordinate the Saints and Lions defenses, respectively.
The Lions won the most recent regular-season meeting 33-28 in New Orleans in 2023. This time, Detroit gets the matchup at Ford Field with both clubs looking for a better start after missing the playoffs last season.
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2026 NFL Football Handicapping
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New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions Odds & Last 5
Detroit is a seven-point home favorite entering Week 1, with New Orleans getting +7 on the road. The total is sitting at 50 points after opening around 50.5, while the Lions are priced as substantial moneyline favorites.
The Saints finished the preseason 1-2, but their best performance came in the finale. New Orleans beat Dallas 27-24 on a 53-yard Daniel Carlson field goal after losing 24-20 to Jacksonville and 34-0 to the Rams. The Saints rested Shough and their other starters against Dallas.
Detroit went 2-1 during the preseason.
The Lions dropped their opener 16-14 at Cincinnati before beating Washington 17-13 and Indianapolis 25-16. Those results provided some positive depth evaluation, although preseason records carry limited weight now that Goff and Detroit’s starters return for Week 1.
Lions Stats From Last Season
Detroit finished 9-8 in 2025 despite owning one of the NFL’s better scoring offenses. The Lions produced 481 points, averaging 28.3 per game to rank fourth in the league. Their passing attack remained particularly productive with Jared Goff directing the offense.
The defense wasn’t nearly as consistent. Detroit surrendered 413 points, or 24.3 per game, while Kelvin Sheppard completed his first season as defensive coordinator. He returns in that role for 2026, giving the Lions continuity on that side of the ball.
The biggest offensive change is at coordinator.
Drew Petzing replaces John Morton and takes over a unit that already has proven playmakers around Goff. Detroit doesn’t need an offensive rebuild, but the new play-calling structure adds an interesting Week 1 variable after the Lions finished among the NFL’s highest-scoring clubs last season.
Detroit finished its preseason with consecutive victories.
After beating Washington 17-13 at Ford Field, the Lions went to Indianapolis and won 25-16. Jacob Saylors rushed for 100 yards in that finale as Detroit completed the exhibition schedule at 2-1.
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Saints Stats From Last Season
New Orleans finished 6-11 in 2025 and scored 306 points, ranking 28th in the NFL. The Saints generated 5,331 total yards, including 3,728 through the air and 1,603 on the ground. Their rushing attack finished near the bottom of the league, putting additional pressure on the passing game.
The defense was a different story, finishing ninth in total yards allowed at 299.8 per game and fourth against the pass at 179.2 yards per contest. New Orleans also ranked third in opponent third-down conversion rate and did not allow a 300-yard passer all season.
That gives the Saints something substantial to build around entering Year 2 under Moore.
New Orleans finished the preseason 1-2, but the finale provided a better finish after the ugly 34-0 loss to the Rams. The Saints beat Dallas 27-24 with most of their starters sitting, getting a late Carlson field goal to secure their first exhibition victory.
The bigger offensive question is how much Shough can build on his rookie finish. New Orleans went 5-4 in his nine starts, and Nussmeier returns after designing an offense that increasingly leaned into the young quarterback’s strengths.
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Saints vs. Lions QB Matchup
Jared Goff enters another season as the centerpiece of Detroit’s offense after an excellent 2025 campaign. He started all 17 games and completed 393 of 578 passes for 4,564 yards, finishing second in the NFL in passing yardage. Goff threw 34 touchdowns against only eight interceptions and posted a 105.5 passer rating.
His surroundings remain strong, although Petzing taking over the offense introduces a new play-caller. Goff’s experience should ease that transition, particularly at Ford Field, where Detroit has built an offense capable of putting pressure on opponents quickly.
Tyler Shough enters his second NFL season after emerging as New Orleans’ starter during his rookie year. He appeared in 11 games with nine starts, completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. More importantly, the Saints went 5-4 in his starts.
Shough now gets a full offseason as the established quarterback.
The Saints saw enough improvement during his rookie season to build around him rather than start over at the position. Facing Goff in Detroit is a difficult Week 1 assignment, but Shough showed enough accuracy and composure last season to give New Orleans a legitimate passing-game foundation.
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions bottom line: Detroit owns the more established offense, while New Orleans brings a much stronger defensive profile than its 6-11 record suggests.
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions Football Betting Trends
- The Saints have covered the spread in their last 6 regular season games, going 6-0 ATS.
- Also, New Orleans has excelled as underdogs, achieving a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 regular season games.
- The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 away games during the regular season.
- Additionally, the Lions have hit the over in all 5 of their last home games during the regular season.
- Detroit has also excelled in games with totals of 50 or more, going 4-1 O/U in their last 5 regular season games.
- The Lions have been successful with the over as favorites, achieving a 6-1 O/U record in their last 7 regular season games.
Saints Lions Free Pick: Under 50
Here is my Saints Lions free pick:
I’m taking Under 50 because this number asks New Orleans to do more offensive lifting than I expect in Week 1. Tyler Shough showed progress as a rookie, but Detroit at Ford Field is a tough opening assignment. I don’t see the Saints forcing the pace here.
The Lions should score, but New Orleans quietly built a respectable defense last season. Brandon Staley’s group finished ninth in yards allowed and fourth against the pass, giving the Saints a chance to make Jared Goff work for points.
Detroit also enters 2026 with Drew Petzing taking over the offense. I’m not expecting the Lions to become conservative, but a new play-caller in the opener gives me another reason not to chase a shootout.
This total gives the Saints defense enough room to matter without needing a dominant performance.
The number is doing plenty of work for us.
New Orleans scored only 306 points last season, and Shough is still developing as an NFL starter. The Saints can stay competitive without turning this into a track meet, especially if their defense keeps Detroit from stacking touchdowns early.
I expect the Lions to control most of this game, but that doesn’t automatically mean 50-plus points. My NFL betting system has this landing below the number, so I’ll take the Under 50.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Stop the video at your favorite Lions jersey pic.twitter.com/ilhRAeHcQV
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) September 4, 2026
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