Free Week 6 Prediction: Chargers vs. Broncos NFL Odds
Looking for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Free NFL Week 6 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chargers taking on the Broncos on Monday, October 17th, 2022 at SoFi Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 6 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Los Angeles – Denver matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 6
Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) vs. Denver Broncos (2-3)
Date: Monday, October 17th, 2022
Time: 8:15 PM EST
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
NFL Week 6 ATS Betting Lines: Chargers -5 (-110) | Broncos +5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 6 Moneyline Odds: Chargers -229 | Broncos +183
NFL Week 6 NFL Betting Total: O/U 45.5
- *Click Here* Check out our Live Betting Odds for this game!
- *Click Here* Check out our Updated Sportsbook Bonuses for today!
After escaping Cleveland with a win, the Chargers are trailing only Kansas City in the AFC West. They take on division rival Denver, who may be wishing they had a do-over on the Russell Wilson trade.
Far more often the, “we beat up on each other” excuse is used in college athletics, but it is appropriate in the NFL’s AFC West division. Armed with 4 quality teams, for the most part any of them can beat the other in a given week, though Kansas City has been formidable as expected.
This week is no different. Week 6 brings us an AFC West tilt where, well, either team could win. The Chargers were pre-season darlings to usurp the division crown from the Chiefs but haven’t had the start that most had envisioned. A 3-2 record isn’t bad! But a loss to Jacksonville and less than spectacular wins against Houston and Cleveland have me starting to look closer.
So far on the young season the Broncos have been far less impressive than we all expected, having dealt with a head coach in the throes of growing pains and a promised franchise QB who hasn’t been his old self. The duality of the Broncos however has been the success of the defense, ranking comfortably in the top 10 of units in the league.
This game won’t be as simple as our preconceived notions. Though this is a road game for the Broncos, defense typically travels, and my intuition is that the numbers will tell us these teams aren’t that far apart.
Los Angeles Chargers
The story of the season so far for the Chargers has been the unclear health of wunderkind QB Justin Herbert. We know that he’s receiving pain management treatments before the start of games to work through a rib injury he sustained in a week 2 MNF loss to the Chiefs, but box score examination doesn’t unearth a correlated drop in performance.
The scores haven’t been there, but LA hasn’t decreased his workload and the yardage has been there. In fact, Mike Williams just posted his best game on the young season, meaning they’re as pass happy as ever. DVOA corroborates the evidence as well, ranking the Chargers as the 6th best passing offense. We’ll also want to keep an eye on the return of Keenan Allen.
Prior to putting up 238 rushing yards on Sunday in Cleveland (the NFL’s worst rush D), the Chargers were dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Ekeler received a heavy workload in this game, but Joshua Kelley saw some work as well. They’ll face stiff competition in week 6 against a Broncos front that is 12th in rush defense.
The Chargers have struggled on the defensive side of the ball, allowing the 7th highest EPA/play. DVOA still likes their pass defense (12th) which will be key against a Broncos offense that just lost Javonte Williams and Garrett Bolles and will likely rely on the passing offense more. For LA to come away victorious, they’ll have to improve on their 26.6 ppg allowed this year.
Denver Broncos
I’ve set the table for the Broncos but outside of narrative, what do the numbers say?
For starters, the Denver offense has been toothless, outpacing only the Colts in points per game (15.0) which is ironic, considering they just bowed to the Colts in a 12-9 loss.
Simply put, the Broncos haven’t been able to run the ball. You can cue the “establish the run” jokes, but being balanced and effective in multiple ways is important. Only the Buccaneers have been worse running the ball in EPA/rush and it will likely not get better with the recent losses of Javonte and Bolles.
Scan Twitter any given night the Broncos are playing in primetime and you’ll find no shortage of snarky, let Russ cook tweets, fairly mocking his play. Among QB’s with at least 80 snaps this year, Wilson ranks 24th in adjusted EPA/play, behind the likes of Justin Fields and Daniel Jones. Seattle Russ is gone, and Denver will have to craft ways for new Russ to be effective.
I’ve sung the praises of the Denver defense, which should have a decent go at the Chargers. Patrick Surtain II looks like an absolute star and second-year safety Caden Sterns leads the Broncos in passes defensed and interceptions. Bradley Chubb has 5.5 sacks on the year but will now face a Chargers offensive line that is leading the NFL in adjusted sack rate allowed.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver’s last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers’s last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers’s last 6 games at home
4* Free Week 6 NFL Betting Prediction: u45.5
I like the under for this game. Primetime unders are still hitting at a healthy clip, the betting trends show us a history of close, low scoring games between these two teams and Denver has the perfect combo of great defense and non-existent offense.
There’s a world in which the Broncos get blown out, but the offense has been so putrid that they likely won’t contribute enough points to the total for the over to hit. Given the possibility of a blowout, it’s smarter for us to take the under rather than try to side with Denver.
If you’re looking for more NFL picks like this Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos matchup we’ll be providing 4* free NFL predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free NFL Football Picks!
Register here for a FREE NFL Football Betting Account Now for Daily Free Picks & More Special Offers!