Free NFL Week 13 Pick: Chargers vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chargers taking on the Falcons on Sunday, December 1st at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Los Angeles Atlanta matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
(7-4) Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
Date: Sunday, December 1st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Los Angeles -1 | Atlanta +1
NFL Moneyline Odds: Los Angeles -120 | Atlanta +101
NFL Betting Total: O/U 47.5
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Get ready for an electric Week 13 clash between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Atlanta Falcons!
This matchup is steeped in history, with the Falcons holding an 8-4 edge in their all-time series. Atlanta dominated early, winning six straight from 1991 to 2012, but the tide has turned recently, with the Chargers taking the last three meetings, including a nail-biting 20-17 victory in Atlanta in 2022.
That game showcased Justin Herbert outdueling Marcus Mariota, and now the Chargers hope their star QB can lead the charge once again.
This year, the stakes are higher.
The Chargers, sitting at 7-4, are battling for playoff positioning, while the 6-5 Falcons are scrapping to stay in the hunt.
Over the last three times playing each other, the Chargers have a record of 3-0. The Chargers also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 45 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Los Angeles Chargers
Heading into week 13, the Chargers are 7-4, which puts them 2nd in the AFC West. Our projections give them a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs, but they have just a 3.1% chance of winning the division. They currently rank 11th in our NFL power rankings.
Against the spread, the Chargers are 7-3-1, including a 7-1 record as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +6.2 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-7, with the over hitting in three straight games.
Los Angeles Chargers Stats
Heading into week 13, the Chargers sit 11th in our offensive power rankings. They are 17th in points per game (22.1) and 21st in yards per game (322.6). Justin Herbert threw for 218 yards in week 12, completing 21 of 36 passes, but he didn’t find the end zone and was sacked 4 times. Ladd McConkey led the team with 6 catches for 83 yards.
In the run game, the Chargers rank 13th in rushing yards per game. J.K. Dobbins, who had 40 yards on 6 carries in week 12, will miss week 13 due to a knee injury. Before his injury, Dobbins had rushed for 766 yards and 8 touchdowns this season.
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In the Chargers’ 30-23 loss to the Ravens, their defense allowed 177 passing yards on just 16 completions. However, their rush defense struggled, giving up 212 yards on 37 attempts, including a 5.7 yards per attempt average. The Chargers allowed two rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns while allowing the Ravens to convert on 53.3% of their third down attempts.
Despite giving up big yardage on the ground, the Chargers’ defense did hold the Ravens to 8.0 yards per attempt in the passing game. They also had one sack and two tackles for loss.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have dropped two straight games, including a 38-6 loss to the Broncos in week 11, bringing their record to 6-5. Despite the losing streak, they remain 1st in the NFC South with a 4-1 division record. Our projections give Atlanta a 66.6% chance of winning the division and a 70.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Heading into week 13, the Falcons rank 19th in our power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of -2.7 points per game and are 5-6 against the spread. Their O/U record is 4-7, with the under hitting in three straight games.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Heading into week 13, the Falcons rank 10th in our offensive power rankings. They are 16th in the NFL in points per game (22.2) and 8th in yards per game (361.5). Atlanta is 5th in passing yards per game (243.6) on 33.3 attempts per game, which ranks 14th. On the ground, they average 117.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 14th, on 26.4 attempts per game (20th). The Falcons are 20th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage (37.4%) and 9th in red zone conversion percentage.
Kirk Cousins struggled in week 11, posting a passer rating of 68 with 173 yards and an interception. Bijan Robinson had 35 rushing yards on 12 carries, and Drake London led the team with 61 receiving yards. Before this, Cousins threw for 306 yards in week 10, and Robinson rushed for 116 yards. Darnell Mooney, who had 88 receiving yards in week 9, is questionable with a hamstring injury.
In their most recent game, the Falcons’ defense gave up 295 yards through the air to the Broncos, who completed 84.8% of their passes. Atlanta’s defense allowed four passing touchdowns and struggled to get off the field, as Denver converted on 54.5% of their third down attempts. The Falcons lost 38-6, giving up a total of 400 yards, and their only sack came with a negative three QB hit differential and a -3 tackles for loss differential.
Atlanta’s run defense allowed 105 yards on 26 attempts, giving up 4.0 yards per attempt in the game.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chargers are 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Chargers are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chargers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Chargers vs. Falcons Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | +114 | -120 | +2.5 | -1 |
| Falcons | -135 | +101 | -2.5 | +1 |
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: Falcons ATS
The betting lines reflect the razor-thin margin between these two teams, with Los Angeles slightly favored at -1. However, the Falcons’ struggles as underdogs—covering just once in their last five tries—could give Herbert and company the edge.
Even without their top running back, Los Angeles boasts a dynamic passing attack, and Herbert will look to exploit Atlanta’s shaky secondary.
Our point spread pick for this week 13 matchup between the Chargers and Falcons is to take the Falcons to cover as home dogs. The point spread lines have the Chargers at -1, and we have the Falcons winning 26-23, making them our best bet vs. the spread.
Atlanta’s gritty style and home-field advantage at Mercedes-Benz Stadium make this anything but a slam dunk for the Chargers.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at 47.5 points, we have these teams combining for 49 points, making the over our pick for this one.
With the total set at 47.5, oddsmakers are expecting fireworks, and fans should, too. This one’s shaping up to be a high-energy battle with playoff implications, and it’s the kind of game that could swing on one big play. Buckle up—it’s going to be a fun ride!
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Ready to work 😤 pic.twitter.com/XLOhIfdfo1
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 27, 2024
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