Free Week 16 Prediction: Chiefs vs. Seahawks NFL Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks Free NFL Week 16 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Seahawks on Saturday, December 24th, 2022 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City Seattle Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-7)
Date: Saturday, December 24th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
NFL Week 16 ATS Betting Lines: Chiefs -9 (-110) | Seahawks +9 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 16 Moneyline Odds: Chiefs -440 | Seahawks +320
NFL Week 16 NFL Betting Total: O/U 48.5
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Seattle fights for their playoff lives every week and travel to KC where the Chiefs have already sewed up the AFC West division.
Chalk ruled the AFC West with Kansas City’s division crown. The Chiefs are just a wagon, man. They can still clinch the #1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They really don’t want to have to go to Buffalo in January, so they’ve got plenty to play for.
Seattle’s playoff hopes have taken a dip in recent weeks by losing their last two, Detroit’s resurgence from the dead and New York and Washington’s tie throwing a monkey wrench into the standings. A win this week would be huge for their chances no matter how unlikely that is.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs pulled out an overtime win in a sweat against….Houston? That game is proof that double digit favorites aren’t the homeruns we often think they are. KC didn’t even cover a tease!
Speaking of rejuvenations, Jerick McKinnon is back to playing explosive football and chipped in 122 scrimmage yards and two scores. As if the KC offense needed more dynamic pieces. He and Pacheco suddenly have KC running the ball effectively.
Outside of Kelce, the obvious, Juju has picked it up in recent weeks, playing over 80% of snaps and catching 10 balls against Houston. Looking at the box score, it’s curious that the Chiefs didn’t blow out Houston, but turnovers played a large part in that. We likely won’t see that again.
Since week 12 the Chiefs rank 8th in EPA/rush allowed, which will be important against Kenneth Walker. DVOA calls KC the 25th best passing defense, so Geno is set for a decent matchup. The Chiefs send the blitz at the 13th highest rate but Geno is famously calm under pressure and one of the better passers in that situation.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle offense we knew and loved back in week 9 that was #1 in pass O by DVOA is not there anymore. They still rank 5th, so maybe I’m being a tad dramatic, but their struggles in recent weeks to score are a bit concerning.
Sure, Carolina and SF are good to great defenses, but even from a negative game script the Seahawks could only manage 13 at home against the Niners. KC represents a weaker pass D, but the Chiefs figure to put the Seahawks in a throwing game script, so this could be another Geno game.
Tyler Lockett is a big loss for the receiving corps, requiring season-ending hand surgery. More attention will fall on DK now, which will likely limit his opportunities. It’ll be up to the likes of Marquise Goodwin and TE Noah Fant to fill in for the open targets.
The Seahawk defense has fallen off a good bit and are the main culprit for recent struggles. DVOA has them 28th in rush defense.
Tariq Woolen has had a breakout season in the secondary, but the lack of pressure will be noted here and Mahomes is usually quick to get the ball out for valuable YAC.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 5 games when playing Kansas City
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 5 games when playing Seattle
- Kansas City is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Seattle
4* Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: SEA +9
Kansas City has been poor as a home favorite ATS since 2021, but likely suffer from high lines. Their 7-9-1 mark doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies.
Seattle has done well covering on the road this season, going 3-2 ATS covering by an average of 4.8 points. 9 is a decent amount of points to be getting here.
Given the betting trends, I think we’re safe to take the points. Seattle’s perception coming off of two losses is probably too low, and KC is always inflated by the betting public. They weren’t properly adjusted following their near-loss to Houston.
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