Free Week 18 Prediction: Jaguars vs. Titans NFL Odds
Looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Free NFL Week 18 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Jaguars taking on the Titans on Saturday, January 7th, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 18 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Jacksonville Tennessee Matchup.
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NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 18
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-9)
Date: Saturday, January 7th, 2023
Time: 8:15 PM EST
Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
NFL Week 18 ATS Betting Lines: Jaguars -6.5 (-110) | Titans +6.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 18 Moneyline Odds: Jaguars -330 | Titans +255
NFL Week 18 NFL Betting Total: O/U 39.0
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Division rivals meet with only one advancing to the playoffs.
The NFL is seemingly getting their wish in multiple spots this weekend, pitting division races against each other in the season’s final week.
The winner of this game will ultimately win the AFC South and own the conference’s #4 seed. The loser goes home empty handed.
I don’t need to set this piece up much, the stakes are baked in, so with that, let’s check in on each team so we can pick a side here.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville are winners of 4 straight and 6 of their last 8 games after getting off to a 2-6 start. Trevor Lawrence has settled in nicely, to the point where it’s no longer a question of if he’s the Jags’ guy.
During their winning streak the Jags have averaged 31.5 ppg and rank 5th in total EPA/play. There is real substance to the offensive numbers they’ve put up, scoring on the likes of Dallas, Tennessee and the Jets.
DVOA isn’t much of a fan of the Jaguars running game however. Etienne has since cooled on his fiery start to the season and lack viable options behind him to supplement his off games. Though Tennessee’s defense has fallen off in recent weeks, DVOA still loves their rush D (2nd) which could make Jacksonville one-dimensional offensively.
Since week 14 when their streak began, Jacksonville has been the best defense in the league in terms of EPA/play allowed. With Ryan Tannehill purportedly out for the rest of the season, Tennessee will start Joshua Dobbs again at QB which is a very favorable matchup for the Jags.
We’ll need to keep an eye out on Derrick Henry’s status for this game.
Tennessee Titans
Speaking of streaks, the Titans have lost 6 in a row. They’ve also lost Ryan Tannehill, bailed on Malik Willis and missed Derrick Henry last week.
So it’s been a whole lot of bad and not a lot of good over the last month and a half in Nashville. Derrick Henry should return this week for their season-defining tilt in Jacksonville. Dobbs will need to lean on a reliable run game to keep the offense moving down the field.
Even with Derrick Henry this season, the Titans rank 26th in EPA/rush. On the whole, the offense has been unspectacular, but are liable to be even worse under the leadership of Dobbs.
Defensively, the Titans have been the best run defending team in the NFL by EPA. Conversely, they’re one of the worst teams at defending the pass in terms of EPA. Again, we shouldn’t be too rattled by the opposing QB in this matchup. They have been outscored by an averaged of 12.5 ppg over their losing streak.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
- Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
- Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
4* Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Free Week 18 NFL Betting Prediction: TEN +6.5
One thing that tends to get overlooked in these situations is coaching. This time of year is when it matters the most. Mike Vrabel was considered by many to by a COY candidate when the Titans were 7-3. With their losing streak the rumors have since died, but the point remains.
The question here is not can Tennessee win, the question is really, can they cover? I like siding with Vrabel in a do or die situation over Pederson.
Then there’s the question of betting trends. As a road underdog, the Titans are 3-2-1 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 1.6 points.
Jacksonville as a home favorite is 0-2 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 11.5 points. Without a running game, can Jacksonville hold onto the ball and extend leads? I’m thinking 6.5 is just asking too many points.
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