Free Week 7 Prediction: Jaguars vs. Giants NFL Odds
Looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants Free NFL Week 7 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Jaguars taking on the Giants on Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 7 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Jacksonville – New York Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 7
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) vs. New York Giants (5-1)
Date: Sunday, October 23rd, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
NFL Week 7 ATS Betting Lines: Jaguars -3 (-110) | Giants +3 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 7 Moneyline Odds: Jaguars -161 | Giants +131
NFL Week 7 NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.0
- *Click Here* Check out our Live Betting Odds for this game!
- *Click Here* Check out our Updated Sportsbook Bonuses for today!
Jacksonville looks to get back to winning ways after losing their last three games. The upstart Giants have started 2022 in a fever dream and don’t want to wake up.
Unless the Jaguars lose out to finish the 2022 season, this year will be remembered as a good reset. The Urban Meyer experiment in 2021 left a bad taste not only in Jaguars fan’s mouth, but honestly, anyone who loved football in general. Their 2-1 start to the season, including a surprising win over the Chargers was a fresh start that has since spoiled some.
Yet, at 2-4, the Jaguars open up as 3 point favorites over the 5-1 Giants, which is most likely tied to their home field advantage that tells us Vegas sees these teams as pretty equal.
What has gotten into these Giants? After letting go of their previous regime, trying to fix a mess of a cap sheet and building through the draft, the Giants have won 5 of 6 to start the season with an imperfect, inherited roster. No one, and I mean no one could have expected this start to the year.
You normally don’t see a 2-4 team favored by 3 against a 5-1 team, which means we’ve got a classic rat line. But we’ll get back to that…
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has acquitted himself nicely to start the 2022 campaign. Because Meyer’s administration was so profoundly useless, it was difficult to parse whether Lawrence was a long term option or not. Most gave Lawrence the benefit of the doubt and he’s responded under Doug Pederson with the 12th-best adjusted EPA/play among starters this year.
Outside of their 13-6 loss at Houston, the Jaguars have averaged nearly 27 points per game and Lawrence is the center of it all. Big money free agent Christian Kirk leads the team with 4 touchdowns and is vitally important to Jacksonville’s 8th ranked passing attack by DVOA.
James Robinson has made a nice return from a torn achilles injury, which is usually a career dampener among skill positions. Former first round running back Travis Etienne hasn’t contributed much in the running game, but he’s a threat in the passing game for the Jags.
Football Outsiders also loves the Jags’ defense and has them as the 9th best rushing defense. That’s a bad matchup for a Giants offense that heavily relies on Saquon Barkley. As fun as the ‘Sacksonville’ nickname is, there isn’t spectacular data to back it up. Jacksonville is 27th in total sacks and advanced data tell us it’s not an aberration (30th in adjusted sack rate).
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley very well may end up as the NFL comeback player of the year, but Daniel Jones has been quietly much improved. While he hasn’t been a world beater in the box score (Jones typically is under 220 passing yards per game) he’s rated out well in advanced data, coming in at 14th in EPA/play among starters.
Barkley managed 95 total yards and a touchdown in a grinding game but it was hard fought. Normally good for some explosive plays, his longest run was only 8 yards! Jacksonville will likely stack the box to contend with New York’s 11th rated rush attack by DVOA which is when Jones’ bootlegs become effective.
The wide receiver situation in New York remains a mess. There is no true number one receiver, they have a list of injuries and most of the corps is duct taped together with practice squad heroes. But yet, they manage to compete. Wan’Dale Robinson returned from injury to catch his first touchdown and fellow rookie Daniel Bellinger continues to contribute.
The defense really deserves most of the credit. The offense is doing just enough to win games, but only because the defense has been stingy. The Giants blitz more than any team in the NFL. The chaos generated from that covers up their personnel shortcomings. Hey, sometimes smoke and mirrors work.
DVOA is not a big fan of Big Blue’s defense however. Remember, DVOA is opponent-adjusted. Wins against Carolina, Chicago and Tennessee are devalued in this metric, so it’s not to say they can’t keep winning but the metric bets against it.
No one has recovered more fumbles than the Giants and they currently sit +2 in the TO differential. Yes, Jones has significantly reduced his contributions in a sustainable way, but such fumble luck isn’t and the fact is, the turnover battle has a significant impact on the final.
NFL Betting Trends:
- NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville’s last 8 games at home
- Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
4* Free Week 7 NFL Betting Prediction: NYG +3
Alright, so back to this rat line. The largest differences between these two teams are their defensive metrics. While they remain pretty similar in offensive categories, DVOA sees Jacksonville as the significantly better defense.
Regression is likely headed for the Giants. Record in one-score games and turnover margin are two of the most noisy, yet influential markers on a team’s Win-Loss column. The Giants are currently 5-1 in one score games and I’ve already mentioned their fumble luck.
So between those factors, it stands to reason that Vegas expects the Jaguars to outperform New York. The question is, can New York cover the 3?
So far this season the name of the game for New York is to do just enough to stay close, even if it means slowing the game down. The nucleus of coaches for the Giants should be able to conjure enough magic to cover this Sunday. Take the free points!
If you’re looking for more NFL picks like this Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants Matchup we’ll be providing 4* free NFL predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free NFL Football Picks!
Register here for a FREE NFL Football Betting Account Now for Daily Free Picks & More Special Offers!