Free NFL Week 10 Pick: Lions vs. Texans Odds
Looking for Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Lions taking on the Texans on Sunday, November 10th at the NRG Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Detroit Houston Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
Sunday Night Football on NBC
(7-1) Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans (6-3)
Date: Sunday, November 10th
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston TX
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Detroit -3.5 | Houston +3.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Detroit -192 | Houston +159
NFL Betting Total: O/U 49
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Week 10 brings us a primetime clash as the red-hot Lions face the resilient Texans in Houston! Detroit is firing on all cylinders this season, covering the spread in each of their seven wins.
Led by Jared Goff, who’s been on a historic hot streak, the Lions’ offense has become a force, practically unstoppable week after week.
Meanwhile, Houston has struggled to keep up with high-powered offenses, covering the spread just once in their last seven November games.
Last season, the Lions and Texans did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Texans have the leg up at 3-0.
The Texans also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 54 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
The Texans hold the series edge, leading 4-1, with their most recent win in a 41-25 victory back in 2020. But this time, Detroit looks different—leaner, meaner, and ready to pounce.
Detroit Lions
With six straight wins, the Lions sit at 7-1, putting them atop both the NFC North and our power rankings. Their playoff chances are at 98.2%, and they have a 77.7% chance of winning the division. Detroit is 4-0 on the road and 3-1 at home, with a 2-0 record in division games and a 6-1 mark in conference play.
Against the spread, the Lions are 7-1, with an average scoring margin of +13.8 points. They’ve covered in six straight games, including a 10-point win over the Packers in week 9. Detroit was favored by 2.5 points and won 24-14. The O/U line was 48.5 points, and the teams combined for 38.
Detroit Lions Stats
Heading into week 10, the Lions are 3rd in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in scoring, averaging 32.2 points per game, and are 7th in total yards with 369.6 per game. Despite ranking 26th in passing attempts, they are 15th in passing yards, with Jared Goff posting a passer rating of 109 in week 9, going 18/22 for 145 yards and a touchdown. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with 56 receiving yards on 7 catches in week 9.
On the ground, Detroit ranks 6th in rushing yards per game, with 152.6, on 31 attempts per game. David Montgomery had 73 yards on 17 carries in week 9. The Lions are 7th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 41.6% success rate, and they rank 5th in red zone attempts, converting 2 of 4 in week 9.
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In the secondary, the Lions’ defense played well on third downs, allowing just a 25% conversion rate. Despite this, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 138 yards on just 23 attempts. The Lions did not come up with any sacks in the game and allowed 411 total yards, but they still managed to come out on top, beating the Packers 24-14.
Detroit’s run defense gave up 6.0 yards per attempt, and even though they didn’t force much pressure in the passing game, they held the Packers to a 59% completion rate and didn’t allow any passing touchdowns. Additionally, the Lions’ defense came up with one interception.
Houston Texans
The Texans sit at 6-3 on the season, putting them in first place in the AFC South with a 3-0 division record. They have a +0.1 scoring margin and are 3-6 against the spread, including a 2-game ATS losing streak. Their O/U record is 2-7, with the under hitting in each of their last three games.
Heading into week 10, Houston has a 93.2% chance of making the playoffs and an 88.2% chance of winning the division. They rank 12th in our NFL power rankings. The Texans are 4-0 at home this season but just 2-3 on the road, including a 21-13 loss to the Jets in week 9.
Houston Texans Stats
Heading into week 10, the Texans are 17th in our offensive power rankings. They are 16th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 22.3 points per game, and 11th in total yards per game with 348.1. Houston ranks 13th in passing yards per game (221.7) and 11th in rushing yards per game (126.4). They are 14th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 19th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 8th in red zone attempts.
C.J. Stroud struggled in week 9, completing just 11 of 30 passes for 191 yards and no touchdowns, while being sacked 8 times. Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards on 24 carries, and Tank Dell had 6 catches for 126 yards. The Texans scored 3 points in each of the last 3 quarters after being shut out in the 1st quarter against the Jets.
In their most recent game, the Texans’ defense gave up three passing touchdowns and allowed the Jets to complete 68.8% of their passes for 193 yards. Despite holding the Jets to 100 yards rushing on 21 attempts, the Texans lost 21-13. The defense struggled on third downs, allowing the Jets to convert 41.7% of their third down opportunities.
The Texans’ defense managed two sacks in the game and their secondary allowed a yards per attempt of 6.0. Houston’s offense put up 293 yards in the game, but the defense couldn’t keep the Jets out of the endzone, as they gave up three passing touchdowns.
Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Lions are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Texans are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Lions are 9-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Texans have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Lions’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Texans’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Lions vs. Texans Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | -110 | -192 | +0.5 | -3.5 |
| Texans | -110 | +160 | -0.5 | +3.5 |
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: Lions -3.5
Even with Nico Collins potentially back on the field, Houston will need all hands on deck to compete with Detroit’s high-octane attack.
The Lions’ consistency against the spread this season speaks volumes, especially on the road, and with Houston’s shaky November record, this matchup could be all about Detroit’s relentless pace.
Our model has the Lions winning this week 10 matchup vs. the Texans by a score of 35-21. With the point spread sitting at -3.5 in favor of the Lions, we like them to not only win but also cover the spread.
For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 56 and the O/U line currently at 49.
With Goff at the helm and the Lions dominating against the spread, this Week 10 showdown is poised to be one for the books. Get ready for fireworks on Sunday night—this is a game you won’t want to miss!
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Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
.@JJWatt TOOK OVER the last time we played Detroit 😤 pic.twitter.com/DFHE0JGqsW
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 7, 2024
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