Free Week 1 Prediction: Browns vs Chiefs NFL Odds
Looking for Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs free NFL Week 1 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Browns taking on the Chiefs on Sunday, September 12th at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City Missouri. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Browns Chiefs matchup.
NFL Handicapping: Week 1
(0-0) Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Date: Sunday, September 12th
Time: 4:25 PM
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City Missouri
NFL Week 1 ATS Betting Lines: Kansas City -6.5
NFL Week 1 Moneyline Odds: Cleveland +245, Kansas City -310
NFL Week 1 NFL Betting Total: O/U 54.5
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The NFL opening weekend is finally here and we have two teams projected to be pretty good this year facing off. Cleveland went 3-0 in the preseason and Kansas City was also 3-0.
In 2020, Cleveland ended up a much improved 11-5, while Kansas City was 14-2. One of those two losses were in Week 17 with their starters resting. These two teams met in the Divisional round of last year’s playoffs with the Chiefs winning 22-17.
Last year, the Browns were 6-10 against the spread (ATS) overall. Their defense looks to be much improved this year, which was formerly their biggest weakness.
Preseason stats shouldn’t be weighted too heavily, but it was definitely a good sign that they only let up 13, 13, and 10 points respectively. Their secondary has been improved with some additions from the Rams and the draft, and their drafted linebacker had a good showing in preseason.
According to Football Insiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the team ranked 18th in the league in 2020. This is a measurement of successful plays considering both total yards and yards towards a first down, with extra “points” awarded for big plays.
There is an offensive and defensive component to the stat. The Browns were 9th in offense and 25th in defense.
Last year Cleveland had an advantage in both offensive and defensive redzone scoring efficiency over Kansas City, even with a worse record.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were 7-9 ATS last year. They have much of the same team coming back and are expected to have another great season.
Kansas City lost in the Super Bowl last year mostly due to their poor offensive line. They made adjustments over the offseason to help with that.
In 2020, Kansas City ranked 6th overall in DVOA (2nd in offensive, 22nd in defensive). Their offense was so good it didn’t matter as much that they lacked defensive talent.
While the Chiefs were able to get to the Super Bowl with a below average defense, they were also the least injured defensive team in the league. It doesn’t seem as though the defense will be improving much this year either.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings vs. KC.
- Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC.
- Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- The Over is 6-0 in the last 6 KC games in Week 1.
- The Over is 3-2 in the last 5 CLE games.
4* Free NFL Betting Prediction: Cleveland Browns +6.5
The Browns are the bet in this matchup. They have revenge on their side after losing to the Chiefs in the playoffs.
The Chiefs do most of their damage in the passing game. They don’t have much of a run game and their defense is not strong. Now that Cleveland improved their secondary and overall defense, they should be close enough in skill to cover the 6 points.
The Chiefs might also not be at their very best in the first game of the season. That could add a volatility aspect that allows Cleveland cover the spread and possibly win.
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