Free Week 7 Prediction: Bengals vs. Falcons NFL Odds
Looking for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons Free NFL Week 7 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bengals taking on the Falcons on Sunday, October 23rd, 2022 at Paycor Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 7 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Cincinnati – Atlanta matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 7
Cincinnati Bengals (3-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
Date: Sunday, October 23rd, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
NFL Week 7 ATS Betting Lines: Bengals -6 (-110) | Falcons +6 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 7 Moneyline Odds: Bengals -265 | Falcons +210
NFL Week 7 NFL Betting Total: O/U 47.5
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Week 7 sees two teams that have clawed their way to a .500 record between the Bengals and Falcons.
The Super Bowl hangover is a very real thing, just ask the Cincinnati Bengals. After starting the season 0-2 and losing in very close games, the Bengals have turned it around, ripping off 3 wins in their last 4 games. Sometimes it’s about doing just enough to stay close in a game and then close it.
Most will discredit some of their wins; a win over Joe Flacco and a Thursday night affair against the Dolphins in which Tua left and changed the way we evaluate concussions, won’t dispel all concerns, but a win is a win.
Ask any talking head show who the coach of the year is and they’ll likely respond with Brian Daboll, which is a good answer, but Arthur Smith shouldn’t be thrown to the wayside too quickly. He deserves a lot of credit for Atlanta’s scrappy 3-3 start when most considered the Falcons for the #1 pick.
I think this game will be making my 4-game NFL Sunday Ticket rotation so I can get a look at which of these teams is real.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati has one of the NFL’s worst rushing marks by EPA/rush (28th) but Sunday they answered a question a lot of us had: what if they just threw every play?
So the Bengals didn’t throw EVERY play, but they only ran 14 times of their 54 plays. While I don’t want to make too much of Joe Burrow’s gross stats (with a lot of it coming on one play), it was refreshing to see a team accept they’re not good at something and do what they are good at.
Joe Mixon only garnered 8 carries, but put up 45 rushing yards. Where I was most surprised though was on Cincinnati’s red zone attempt to end the first quarter. Mixon received back-to-back targets from the 9 yard line, scoring on the second of the two plays. Throwing to your running back on 2nd and goal to make 3rd and goal more manageable? Sure. Throwing to him in the endzone on back to back plays? Almost unheard of.
Outside of Mixon, Chase and Higgins tied for 10 targets. Higgins was just coming back from an injury, so his day was mildly productive, but Chase lit it up, including the game winning touchdown with under two minutes remaining. Football Outsiders still only likes Cincinnati as the 19th passing offense, but they may also be ascending.
The Bengals struggled mightily defending the run, allowing 6.7 ypc, but they remain one of the stronger pass defenses, ranking top-8 in EPA/dropback allowed. They continued their strong performance Sunday, limiting a banged up Saints offense. The rush defense has to be considered against a Falcons squad that has committed to a brand of football from a few decades ago.
Atlanta Falcons
I’ve set the table for the Falcons, but I’ll ask my favorite question, what does the data say? I’ll admit, I’m a bit surprised by what I found.
DVOA loves the Falcons output so far, ranking them 7th in overall offense and the NFL’s #1 rushing attack. Losing Cordarrelle Patterson should have hurt them more, but Caleb Huntley has emerged from seemingly nowhere, and the Falcons offensive line is 7th in adjusted line yards. It’s a nice matchup against Cincinnati’s average rush D.
Marcus Mariota deserves credit for the Falcons’ rushing attack rank; he’s usually good for 5-7 carries per game and in the last few weeks has hit double digit yardage. He’s also managed to lead the Falcons to their 13th best passing mark by DVOA and is 11th among QB’s in adjusted EPA/play, meaning he’s a legitimate starter.
Fantasy managers will be quick to tell you that the offense ignores Kyle Pitts, but even he contributed a touchdown last week and just the second of his career. The offense is usually good for 24 or more points per game, but the defense on the other hand…
Has not done their job effectively to this point. While the Bengals give their opponents a break with their poor rushing attack, Atlanta will still have to contend with Cincinnati’s improving passing attack and they’ve been poor in defending the pass this year, allowing the 2nd-highest dropback success rate.
Cincinnati’s offensive line is vulnerable and Joe Burrow has been sacked plenty, but Atlanta is dead last in the NFL in pressure rate, which will undoubtedly be welcomed by the Bengals. Though, according to PFF, while Atlanta does not blitz (1.2%), Dean Pees has been elite in disguising coverages.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati’s last 11 games
- Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games
4* Free Week 7 NFL Betting Prediction: Falcons +6
Atlanta is the NFL’s last remaining undefeated team ATS. While that will not hold all year, 6 points is a lot for Atlanta to be catching, even with their defense being a black mark.
Arthur Smith has successfully transported his Tennessee offense that predicates running the ball and then forking off of that. Cincinnati was gashed by the Saints, who have been just average in EPA/rush and had Andy Dalton under center.
Cincinnati has shown improvement in recent weeks, and Ja’marr Chase is always a consideration when betting against Who Dey, but in a game with a total of 47.5, it tells me they expect both teams to score. In a game like that, I’ll take the underdog to keep pace.
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