Free Week 13 Prediction: Falcons vs. Steelers NFL Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Free NFL Week 13 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Steelers on Sunday, December 4th, 2022 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta Pittsburgh Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
Atlanta Falcons (5-7) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7)
Date: Sunday, December 4th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
NFL Week 13 ATS Betting Lines: Falcons +1 (-110) | Steelers -1 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 13 Moneyline Odds: Falcons -106 | Steelers -114
NFL Week 13 NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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Atlanta and Pittsburgh are both teams looking for positives to carry into 2023, though the Falcons are just a half game behind Tampa for the NFC South lead.
Marcus Mariota has the job — for now. As the losses pile up for Atlanta, it would make perfect sense for them to see what third round pick and rookie QB Desmond Ridder can do. Mariota has been fine, but this league will always be defined by young QB’s who excel.
Kenny Pickett is exactly that — a rookie QB. It hasn’t been easy sledding, but he’s starting to get into a rhythm. The Steelers have won 2 of their last 3 and have averaged almost 25 ppg.
Atlanta Falcons
At one point this season, the Falcons were the #1 rushing offense by DVOA. They’ve since fallen out of the top spot but remain a respectable 8th.
It’s curious, given that Patterson returned to the backfield, but success is rarely linear. Arthur Smith has quieted the chatter — for now — and has the Falcons in position to finish the season .500 which must be considered a win for a franchise with an unsettled QB position.
Atlanta are losers in 3 of their last 4, averaging a mere 18.3 ppg. Their run heavy offense puts the Falcons 28th in seconds/play in neutral situations, which limits their potential offensive output. Pittsburgh is a respectable defense, unlike the Bears who allowed a rare 27 points by the Falcon offense.
The defense has been the major culprit for Atlanta’s recent losses. Drive stats show us that they’re 28th in points allowed per opponent drive. They also don’t generate pressure and most QB’s can find the open man with a clean pocket and plenty of time. Though AJ Terrell has played better in recent weeks, Atlanta is 29th in pass D by DVOA.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickett’s season stats aren’t a great look, but with rookie QB’s we actually need to look at smaller sample sets because they’re not finished products. It stands to reason he would improve as the season ages and he gets a soft matchup this week in Atlanta.
Pittsburgh isn’t loved by DVOA, but the rushing offense checks in at 15th. Unlike 2021, Najee Harris has found himself with a battery mate most weeks and the committee ranks 6th in EPA/rush in the NFL.
Atlanta has been vulnerable to tight ends this season, which all Freiermuth stock holders are happy to hear. They’ve allowed the 27th most fantasy points to opposing TE’s, and even if you don’t play fantasy, it’s a good sign that the Steelers should be able to attack that gap in the armor.
The league knows to shut down Atlanta, it’s paramount to stop the run game. Pittsburgh ranks 8th in rush D by DVOA, which is a sign we may want to fade the Falcons. Without Pitts in the lineup they can focus on Drake London and Tomlin is usually pretty good about defensive gameplanning.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
- Pittsburgh is 10-1-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Atlanta
- Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 9 games
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: Atlanta ML
Look, I like what the Steelers have shown in recent weeks, but a win over Indy isn’t nearly as impressive as you might think. If Saturday manages timeouts better the result may have been different.
Historically, Tomlin and the Steelers have struggled as road favorites. Since 2019, they’re just 3-4-1 (43%) ATS as road favorites, failing to cover by an average of 5.1 points.
Atlanta on the other hand has done well inside the Mercedes-Benz dome. The Falcons are 3-1 ATS in 2022 as a home underdog, covering by an average of 6.4 points. Sure, it’s only a 1 point spread, but it fits the trends.
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