Breeders’ Cup Classic Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2025 Classic is set for November 1 at Del Mar Race Course in Del Mar, CA. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Breeders’ Cup Classic Preview
- Race: Classic
- Purse: $5 million
- Distance: 1 1/4 miles
- Track: Del Mar Race Course
- Date: November 1, 2025
- Post Time: 6:25 PM (ET)
- Live: Classic Odds: Click Here
Past 10 Classic Winners
- 2024 – Sierra Leone 7-1
- 2023 – White Abarrio 5-2*
- 2022 – Flightline 4-5*
- 2021 – Knicks Go 3-1
- 2020 – Authentic 4-1
- 2019 – Vino Rosso 9-2
- 2018 – Accelerate 5-2*
- 2017 – Gun Runner 5-2
- 2016 – Arrogate 9-5
- 2015 – American Pharoah 7-5*
*denotes favourite
Before we can give you our expert 2025 Classic free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2025 Classic Handicapping
The feature race of Breeders’ Cup weekend, the Classic is so named because it’s run at the “classic” North American distance of 1 1/4 miles on the dirt, the same as the Kentucky Derby.
While the Classic is the most hyped BC race, as is indicated above it’s one of the worst of the 14 races to try and get good value on a win bet. Four favourites have won in the past 10 years, with the average odds of the other six winners coming in at just under 4-1.
With the exception of the late-running Sierra Leone last year, horses that have good early speed out of the gate and run near the front tend to win the Classic. Four of the past 10 winners took the field wire-to-wire, none of the other winners outside of Sierra Leone were worse than fifth at any point of the race.
Odds listed here are provided by the Del Mar track handicapper.
2025 Classic Free Pick & Handicapping: Fierceness Race Odds: 5-2
Fierceness took a lot of flack last year when he went into the Kentucky Derby as the favourite and ended up 15th. It was said that he ‘s a horse that can’t handle adversity and can only win races with a perfect setup.
If you believe the storyline then you might bet against him here. But since the Derby he’s been first or second in six-of-seven starts, including wins in the (G1) Travers and last out in the (G1) Pacific Classic, at this track and at this distance. In fact both of those Grade 1 wins were at 1 1/4 miles, making him only one of two horses in the field with two wins at the distance.
2025 Classic Free Pick & Handicapping: Sierra Leone Odds: 7-2
The defending race champ, Sierra Leone has never been out of the money in 11 career starts, with four wins, four seconds and three thirds. Last year from the Kentucky Derby through to the Travers Stakes he was second or third in four consecutive graded stakes before breaking through to win the Classic.
He comes into this off a second-place finish in the (G1) Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga. As usual, expect him to be coming late from back in the pack.
Mindframe Race Odds: 6-1
Last out in the (G1) Jockey Club Gold Cup, Mindframe went to the gate as the slight second choice in the betting behind Sierra Leone. But his race was over just a few jumps from the start when he got slammed by an outside horse and lost his rider.
He hasn’t raced since, but prior to that the 2024 Belmont Stakes runner-up had won three in a row, including finishing a length in front of Sierra Leone in the (G1) Stephen Foster Stakes, his second consecutive Grade 1 win. He’s been first or second in every race he has finished with a jockey on his back.
Baeza Race Odds: 12-1
Baeza started his career with a ninth-place finish in a turf race at Del Mar but has never missed the board in eight races on the dirt since then.
He doesn’t win much, but does come into this off a win in the (G1) Pennsylvania Derby. He has tactical speed to press the pace or come from a bit further out of it.
Here’s My 2025 Classic Free Pick
The big news of Breeders’ Cup week was the Wednesday morning scratch of 6-5 morning line Classic favourite Sovereignty after he came down with a fever earlier in the week.
While racing fans lose by not getting to watch arguably the best dirt horse in the world do his thing, it certainly makes what some are calling the best Classic in years a bit more wide-open. With Sovereignty out, a case could be made for at least five or six to win here and the list above does not even include Journalism, winner of three Grade 1 stakes, or Japan superstar Forever Young who was third in this race last year.
That all being said, I’m going to take a bit of a swing with a horse some are even calling a toss and take Mindframe for the win. He seems to be a forgotten/ignored/disregarded horse this week, given his recent win streak and the fact he’s finished ahead of Sierra Leone twice in his career.
I know one knock against him is that because of the JCGC debacle he hasn’t had a meaningful race since the end of June. But I’d point out that after running second in the (G1) Haskell last July he was off for seven months and came back to win three in a row.
Although I do have some concern that 1 1/4 miles is the very limit of his distance capabilities, he is certainly coming in fresh. I would have liked him even more at his 10-1 ML odds prior to the scratch of Sovereignty but I’m still going to take a shot.
- Mindframe
- Fierceness
- Sierra Leone
- Baeza
Full Field: 2025 Classic Odds
By post position
- #1 – Fierceness 5-2
- #2 – Baeza 10-1
- #3 – Nevada Beach 20-1
- #4 – Contrary Thinking 50-1
- #5 – Forever Young 7-2
- #6 – Sovereignty (scratched)
- #7 – Sierra Leone 7-2
- #8 – Mindframe 6-1
- #9 – Journalism 5-1
- #10 – Antiquarian 10-1
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