2016 Kentucky Derby Preview and Picks
Looking for 2016 Kentucky Derby Free Picks? You’ve come to the right place! The 2016 Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands is on tap for this Saturday, May 7 from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
Purse: US$2 million
1st: $1,425,000
Bonuses: US$ 200
TV: NBC
Odds: Bovada
The top 20 point getters from a prep season that spanned eight months will take to Churchill Downs dirt track and race 1 1/4 miles for a very nice $2 million purse and the prestige that comes along with being called a Kentucky Derby Champion.
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A field of 20 have been confirmed for this year’s Run for the Roses with two Alternate Entries with no real clear-cut betting favorite. Here is a look at the field and what we can expect in the most anticipated annual Thoroughbred race on North American soil.
2016 Kentucky Derby Free Picks – Nyquist
The morning line favorite heading into the race is Doug O’Neill trained Nyquist at 3-1 odds – the reigning Eclipse Award winner for 2-year-old-male. He has seven career starts and seven wins – all in impressive fashion with five graded stakes scores over that span. He hasn’t been touched so far and has been by far the most impressive entry during the prep season.
2016 Kentucky Derby Free Picks – Exaggerator
Second choice is Exaggerator 8-1 who has finished worse than third just once in his eight race career and arrives on the heels of a terrific win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby April 9. His only blemish was an OK fourth in the Breeders’ Cup. He looks as though he’s peeking at the right time for trainer Keith Desormeaux and could be a factor. Third betting choice is Gun Runner 10-1 who has four wins in five career starts – two straight graded stakes scores ahead of this weekend – both at Fair Grounds. He is another colt that may be peeking at just the right time.
2016 Kentucky Derby Free Picks – Mohaymen
Kiaran McLaughlin trained Mohaymen is also listed at 10-1. He was in the serious favorite category before a fourth place finish behind Nyquist and two other Derby contenders in the Florida Derby April 2 – his only loss in six starts. There are now question marks with this colt – serious ones to say the least. Steve Asmussen trained Creator 10-1 rounds out the top 5 betting favorites thanks to a great win last time out in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.
2016 Kentucky Derby Free Picks – Mor Spirit
Bob Baffert trained Mor Spirit 12-1 hasn’t been worse than second in seven career starts and is an intriguing prospect for the Derby. He has two graded stakes wins in his career and arrives on the heels of consecutive runner-up finishes in Grade 1 races. Brody’s Cause who is also 12-1 enters off a career best win in the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – a result that followed a seventh in the Tampa Bay Derby – he’s pretty inconsistent to say the least.
Three horses are listed at 15-1 – Todd Pletcher trained Destin, Todd Pletcher trained Outwork and Cliff Sise pupil Danzing Candy. Destin may be the best of the bunch after two consecutive graded stakes scores in the leadup to the Derby. Outwork is also intriguing having won three of his four career starts – his only blemish however came behind Destin in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby March 12. Danzing Candy was fourth last time out in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby – a bit of a hiccup before his biggest start to date.
2016 Kentucky Derby Free Picks – 20-1 Betting Odds
Five horses check in at 20-1 on the morning line – Suddenbreakingnews, Mo Tom, Whitmore, Shagaf and My Man Sam – none enter this weekend off a win. Suddenbreakingnews may be the best of the bunch having posted three wins and four runner-up finishes in seven career starts. He won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes in February and was most recently a good second in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Whitmore finished third last time out in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby April 16, second in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes March 19, second in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes February 15 but hasn’t won a stakes race to date. Shagaf enters off a somewhat disappointing fifth in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial April 9 and Mo Tom arrives off a fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds March 26.
2016 Kentucky Derby Free Picks – 30-1 Betting Odds
There may be some gold down the line but I just don’t see it. Majesto 30-1 may be the best of the long shots – he was second last time out in the Grade 2 Florida derby, right behind Nyquist April 2. UAE Derby winner Lani 30-1 has been just OK in his career – UAE Derby success doesn’t usually translate to the Run for the Roses anyway. Tom’s Ready 30-1 has just one win in nine career starts.
Oscar Nominates and Trojan Nation are both 50-1 for a reason.
2016 Kentucky Derby Free Picks – Prediction
Something tells me that the favorite in this race will be upset and there is some value further down the board. Mor Spirit at 12-1 is my pick. Gun Runner at 10-1 is my second place finisher with 3-1 favorite Nyquist getting the show spot.
Enjoy the races folks!
Full 2016 Kentucky Derby Odds – (gr. I) $2,000,000 Guaranteed
1. Trojan Nation 50-1
2. Suddenbreakingnews 20-1
3. Creator 10-1
4. Mo Tom 20-1
5. Gun Runner 10-1
6. My Man Sam 20-1
7. Oscar Nominated 50-1
8. Lani 30-1
9. Destin 15-1
10. Whitmore 20-1
11. Exaggerator 8-1
12. Tom’s Ready 30-1
13. Nyquist 3-1
14. Mohaymen 10-1
15. Outwork 15-1
16. Shagaf 20-1
17. Mor Spirit 12-1
18. Majesto 30-1
19. Brody’s Cause 12-1
20. Danzing Candy 15-1
AE. Laoban
AE. Cherry Wine
Here are the betting 2016 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds & lines according to Bovada Sportsbook.
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