Ray “The Razor” Monohan – Last Updated on December 28, 2022 10:10 am
Free NCAA Football Prediction: Texas vs. Washington Odds
Looking for Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies free picks? College football betting sees the Longhorns taking on the Huskies on Thursday, December 29th, at Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Longhorns Huskies free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies
2022 Valero Alamo Bowl
Texas Longhorns (8-4) vs. Washington Huskies (10-2)
Date: Thursday, December 29th, 2022
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Longhorns -4 / Huskies +4 (Bet Now!)
College Football Moneyline Odds: Longhorns -184 / Huskies +149
NCAA Betting Total Odds: Total O/U 67.5
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The 2022 Valero Alamo Bowl features two teams that should be able to put points on the board.
Sarkisian has the Longhorn program on the rise, especially in the recruiting portion of college football. After going 5-7 in 2021, Texas was able to land Arch Manning this season, the crown jewel of the recruiting class. This year marks Sark’s first bowl game as head coach and gives them a chance to keep the arrow pointing up.
Kalen DeBoer would also like a bowl win. After coming over from Fresno State he’s led Washington to a 10 win season, no short feat. QB Michael Penix is returning next season and feels like he has plenty to prove, so I like the idea we will see his best here.
Texas Longhorns
Quinn Ewers won the starting job over Hudson Card to start the season and led an efficient scoring offense. Texas finished the regular season 23rd in PPA, which is a fancy way of saying they consistently produce plays that lead to scores.
Doak Walker award winner Bijan Robinson will not play in this game however. He was a huge contributor to the Longhorn success and will be missed. Backup Roschon Johnson managed 6.0 ypc on 93 attempts though and runs behind a line top-25 in line yards. We could still see success.
Xavier Worthy is the favorite target of the Texas corps and gets a matchup against a Washington pass defense that allows a ton of pass explosiveness (116th). Texas has some explosiveness in their profile too, producing 6.2 yards/play, good for 22nd in the country.
Advanced metrics tell us that Texas has struggled to limit explosiveness (97th) however and that’s not particularly comforting against the Washington offense. Texas only allowed 22.7 ppg to opponents in conference play, which is impressive considering the strength of the Big 12.
Washington Huskies
Michael Penix produced a breakout season, throwing for over 4000 yards and leading the Huskies to 10 wins. He has announced he will return next season, which means he feels he has something left to prove.
The pass heavy Huskie offense ranked 3rd in PPA and produced two 1000 yards receivers. They were the country’s #1 team in passing downs success rate, so even in the 3rd and long situations, they’re picking up first downs and heading towards scoring territory. They ranked only behind Ohio State, Tennessee, and USC in offensive touchdowns per game.
We know the Huskie offense is elite, so how do they profile defensively? Texas will likely follow their same formula from the season, which was a 53-47 run-pass split. In either phase, Washington is highly susceptible to allowing explosiveness. Both teams are vulnerable in that aspect and it’s reflected in the total.
Washington’s secondary produced the same amount of havoc as Charlotte this season, so we should expect next to nothing there. Their front seven were abused in line yards and stuff rate departments, so the path to a win here is likely the offense dragging the defense along.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas’s last 5 games
- Texas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
- Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington’s last 13 games
- Washington is 8-3-1 to the over, covering by an average of 6.3 points
4* Valero Alamo Bowl NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
The total is pretty high here and I don’t see much value in the number. We can live bet and likely get a better number, so I tend to stay away from that pregame.
Washington +4 intrigues me though. The Huskies have plenty to play for, Penix will be motivated and also has his weapons for this game. Texas without Bijan Robinson does worry me just a little bit, so I’m backing the Huskies.
4* Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies NCAA Betting Pick: Washington +4
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