Free NCAA Pick: Liberty vs. Oregon Odds
Looking for Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks free NCAA 2024 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Flames taking on the Ducks on Monday, January 1st at the State Farm Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Bowl games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Liberty Oregon matchup.
2024 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
(13-0) Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks (11-2)
2024 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Date: Monday, January 1st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Liberty +17 | Oregon -17
Fiesta Bowl Moneyline Odds: Liberty +524 | Oregon -811
College Football Betting Total: O/U 65
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Bo Nix is playing everyone!
College football odds show strong support for Oregon and the Over. The Ducks have gone from -14 to -16.5, and the total increased from 64 to 67.5.
Heisman finalist Nix (4,145 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns, 228 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns), and he said in a recent press conference that reuniting with his mates at Oregon for one last game wasn’t a tough decision.
Although the Ducks will be without Troy Franklin, Nix will still have most of his offensive weapons at his disposal.
Oregon has generally managed opt-outs well and will be more than competitive.
Obviously these two schools have never met in College football competition.
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Liberty Flames
The Flames are coming off a game that featured plenty of scoring, pulling out a 49-35 win over New Mexico State.
While being favored in all of their games so far this season, Liberty is 8-3 against the spread. The team comes into the game with an average scoring margin of +18.1.
Over the course of 13 games, the average over/under line in Liberty’s matchups has been 57 points.
These games have had an average combined score of 63.5 points, leading to an OU record of 8-3.
Liberty Flames Stats
Liberty’s offense is averaging 40.8 points per game, which ranks them 3rd in the NCAA. Through the air, they’re at 212 passing yards on average, putting them at 64th in the nation.
Their rushing attack is currently 1st in rushing yards, with an average of 627 rushing attempts per game this season.
On defense, Liberty comes into the game ranked 77th in passing yards per game. Opponents are throwing the ball an average of 35.7 times per contest vs. the Flames. Overall, they are giving up 22.7 points per game, which is 91st in college football.
Against the run, they are 33rd in the NCAA in rushing yards allowed.
The Flames’ finished with 25 pass attempts vs. New Mexico State, accumulating 319 yards and two scores. In the rushing game, they averaged 9.2 yards per carry and notched five rushing touchdowns.
I believe Liberty may manage to put up some points, but I lack confidence in their ability to cover the spread, especially considering their weak strength of schedule.
Oregon, led by Bo Nix, presents a different level of competition and poses a more significant challenge.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon fell behind early in their most recent game vs. Washington, trailing 10-0 after the first quarter. The Ducks ended up losing 34-31.
Against the spread, Oregon has gone 8-3-1 this season. The Ducks have been favored 11 times compared to one game as the underdog.
Through 13 games, the average over/under line in Oregon’s games is 63.4 points.
Their games have averaged a combined 61.5 points leading to an OU record of 4-8.
Oregon Ducks Stats
On offense, Oregon comes into the game averaging 44.2, which is 1st in the NCAA. On average, they are averaging 342.8 passing yards (2nd) compared to 15th in rushing yards. For the season, they are averaging 399 rushing attempts per contest.
Offensively, the Ducks finished with one score on the ground against Washington while running for 124 rushing yards. In the passing attack, Oregon scored three times and threw the ball 34 times for 239 yards.
Oregon’s defense ranks 62nd in points allowed, with 17.3 points given up per game.
Teams have been averaging 222.8 passing yards against them (89th nationally).
On the ground, they’ve conceded 97.8 rushing yards, putting them 17th in college football.
It’s purely my opinion, so consider it as you see fit, but the Ducks have consistently scored 31 points or more in every game this season. They are expected to have an easier time finding success against a Flames defense that ranks 73rd in success rate and 84th in explosiveness.
Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Flames are 5-0 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Ducks are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Flames are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Ducks have gone 7-2-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Flames’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Ducks’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Liberty vs. Oregon Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Flames | +410 | +524 | +14 | +17 |
Ducks | -590 | -811 | -14 | -17 |
4* Free 2024 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl NCAA Betting Prediction: Oregon -17
Oregon has an impressive 8-3-1 record against the spread (ATS) this season, while Liberty has also performed well with a 9-3-0 ATS record.
Even though Liberty come into this week’s game as the underdog, they’ll keep it close in the first half, but after that it’s going to be all Oregon.
A matchup I like in this one is Oregon’s passing attack vs. the Liberty secondary. In their most recent game, Liberty struggled to slow down New Mexico State.
Liberty has been dominant, averaging 40.8 points per game while allowing only 22.7 points per game. However, it’s important to note that the Oregon Ducks are not an ordinary opponent.
Look for Oregon to cover as 17-point favorites.
Our model sees the over/under line for this matchup being to low and like the outlook of this game surpassing 65 points.
If you’re looking for a low-scoring, defense-oriented football game, this bowl matchup might not be your best choice.
Both of these offenses have performed at an elite level this season.
The betting model spit out this game finishing with a combined 69 points.
The over has hit in 6 of Liberty’s last 7 games, particularly after they accumulated more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
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