Free Week 9 Prediction: Aggies vs Bobcats Odds
Looking for New Mexico State Aggies vs. Texas State Bobcats free picks? Week 9 betting sees the New Mexico State Aggies taking on the Texas State Bobcats on Saturday October 27 at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, TX. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this New Mexico State Texas State free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 9
(2-6) New Mexico State Aggies vs. Texas State Bobcats (1-6)
Date: Saturday, October 27, 2018
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Venue: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
NCAA Football Spread: Texas State -3
NCAA Betting Total: 55.5
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New Mexico State and Texas State are both aware that their next loss will leave them bowl ineligible. With each team having six losses on the season, whomever loses this contest will be out of the post-season picture.
New Mexico State has taken the last three meetings between the teams, and has won by 10 points or more each time.
With only two wins this year, the Aggies defense has been largely to blame for the lack of success in 2018.
The Texas State Bobcats are the only team remaining without a win on Sun Belt Conference play this year. At 0 – 4 and at the bottom of the Sub Belt West Division standings, the Bobcats will likely have to wait another season to make their first ever bowl appearance.
If you recall, the Bobcats went 7 – 5 in 2014, and were the only team that was eligible to not be invited to the post-season. Unless Texas State wins all of their remaining games to go 5 – 0 down the stretch, the phones will not be ringing in San Angelo, Texas this year either.
New Mexico State Aggies
The Aggies defense were among the worst tin the country before defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani turned things around last year. New Mexico State improved so much last season, that the expectations were high on the Aggies defense again entering 2018.
It’s time to go back to the chalkboard again, because the Aggies are ranked 120th in the nation in total yards allowed per game, 128th against the run, and 127th in points allowed. There are only 130 FBS Division 1 programs, to put that in perspective for you.
Head Coach Doug Martin is now 19 – 50 after 69 games manning the sidelines in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Last season the Aggies were 4 – 6 going into their last two remaining games, needing to win both to secure a bowl appearance. They went on to win those two games, which essentially salvaged Doug Martins’ immediate future.
However, should this team fail to win their last four games of this season, there will be no bid coming from the Bowl Committee in 2018.
While the defense struggles to find its legs, the offense hasn’t exactly done much to keep their defense off the field.
Junior QB Matt Romero transferred over to the Aggies hoping to become the starting signal caller in 2018. After being benched four games ago, Nick Jeanty was supposedly in the competition to take over for departing Tyler Rogers, but we have now seen that Josh Adkins has been given the responsibility under center.
Adkins is certainly catching on to the offensive game plan, and now has five starts in a row under his belt. We saw his play making ability start to come out in the game against Liberty, in which the aggies won 49 – 41.
Adkins threw for four touchdowns and had his best game as a collegiate. The offense has been able to hold their own in their last two losses, but the defensive issues ended up costing them again.
Texas State Bobcats
Texas State Head Coach Everett Withers is now 5 – 26 through 2.5 seasons at San Angelo, Texas. His lack of success in year three has been due to the offensive issues that show the Bobcats ranked 122nd in the nation in total yards per game (320.7).
The offensive inefficiencies can be found all over the team stats for through 7 games of the season. No one on the roster has more than two rushing touchdowns, and the team’s leading receiver has only caught 30 passes.
At least Punter Clayton Stewart and Place Kicker James Sherman have been worth something this season. Although if you are doing a preview for a football team, the best players on the team should not be kicking footballs. Just sayin’.
The two rushing touchdowns that lead the team that I mentioned? Those both come from QB Tyler Vitt. Vitt and Willie James have both spent time calling the signals for the Bobcats this season.
They both can tuck in the rock and use their legs, and they both have a lot to learn in the passing game. James has completed less than 50% of his attempts, while Vitt has found more success completing 65.8% of his drop backs.
General statement about the lines/play
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. S-Belt.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Aggies last 8 games on fieldturf.
- Over is 6-1 in Bobcats last 7 home games.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 14-6-1 in Bobcats last 21 non-conference games.
- Over is 35-15-1 in Aggies last 51 road games.
Free Week 9 NCAA Football Pick
The play from this contest goes towards the road dog, and moneyline looks better than +3. We will not need the field goal to cover, because the Aggies get the outright win on the road.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Texas State is listed at -3, with a 55.5 showing on the total. Free ATS or O/U final score pick provided below!
Simply put, the Bobcats should not be favored by a field goal over any team in the country. As bad as New Mexico State has been at times, they are still the better team in my opinion.
Week 9 Free Score Prediction: New Mexico State 29 – Texas State 24
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