Free NCAAF Pick: Tigers vs. Rebels Odds
Looking for Missouri Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels Free NCAA Week 7 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Tigers taking on the Rebels on 10/17 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, in Oxford, MS. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Tigers Rebels matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Missouri Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels
(5-1) Missouri Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels (4-1)
Date: Oct 17, 2026
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Tigers +183 | Rebels -224 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Tigers +6 | Rebels -6
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 59.5
Here’s why I’m backing a Mizzou ATS bet below in my Tigers Rebels free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Tigers vs. Rebels Gameday
The No. 13 Missouri Tigers visit the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday, October 17, 2026, at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on SEC Network. Both teams enter with one conference loss and plenty at stake in the SEC standings.
Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers are 5-1 overall and 2-1 in SEC play. Missouri has won two consecutive games and holds a 1-1 road record.
The Tigers are looking for their first victory over a top-10 opponent this season.
Missouri brings a physical rushing attack and aggressive defense into one of the SEC’s tougher road environments.
Pete Golding’s Rebels are 4-1 overall and 2-1 in conference play. Ole Miss has won all three home games this season.
The Rebels return to Oxford after an impressive victory over Vanderbilt. Missouri arrives following a strong defensive performance against Texas A&M. Both teams have an opportunity to strengthen their postseason position with another conference win.
It’s Week 7, Missouri Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels, hopefully we get a great matchup.
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Missouri Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels Odds & Previous Games
The opening moneyline lists Ole Miss at -213 and Missouri at +176. The Rebels are favored by 6.5 points. The total is 59.5.
Missouri defeated Texas A&M 27-6 and Florida 45-17 in its last two games. The Tigers previously lost 31-24 to Mississippi State after beating Troy 27-17 and Kansas 38-21.
Missouri has won four of its last five games.
Ole Miss defeated Vanderbilt 52-17 after losing 52-28 to Florida. The Rebels previously beat LSU 32-24, Charlotte 41-9 and Louisville 41-38.
Missouri leads the all-time series 7-1 and has won six consecutive meetings. The Tigers won 38-27 in 2019 and 24-10 in their previous visit to Oxford in 2013.
Ole Miss last defeated Missouri in 1974.
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Rebels Stats
Ole Miss has scored 194 points through five games, averaging nearly 39 per contest. The Rebels have generated 1,503 passing yards and 666 rushing yards. Their offense has been considerably more productive through the air.
Deuce Alexander leads the receivers with 503 yards and five TD’s. His ability to create separation gives Ole Miss a dependable downfield target.
The Rebels need their running game to provide more consistent support.
Ole Miss can score in a hurry, but its defense has given opponents too many opportunities to answer.
Defensively, Ole Miss has allowed 140 points through five games. The Rebels have recorded nine sacks, four interceptions and two fumble recoveries.
Running back Kewan Lacy returned from a shoulder injury against Vanderbilt. He has 230 rushing yards and five TD’s this season.
Receiver Izaiah Hartrup is listed as out for Saturday. Other players have appeared on the SEC availability report. Golding needs dependable depth on both sides of the football against Missouri’s physical approach.
Tigers Stats
Missouri has scored 215 points through six games, averaging nearly 36 per contest. The Tigers have produced 1,539 passing yards and 1,095 rushing yards. Their offensive balance has been an important part of their success.
Jamal Roberts leads the rushing attack with 828 yards and eight TD’s. He rushed for 222 yards and two TD’s against Texas A&M.
Roberts has become one of the SEC’s most productive running backs.
Cayden Lee leads the receivers with 42 catches for 616 yards and five TD’s. His availability remains uncertain after appearing as questionable on the SEC injury report.
Missouri has allowed 106 points through six games. The Tigers have recorded 19 sacks and six interceptions.
The defensive front has consistently created problems for opposing offensive lines. Missouri’s ability to generate negative plays has helped limit scoring opportunities. Maintaining that pressure against Ole Miss will require disciplined rush lanes and reliable tackling.
Tigers vs. Rebels QB Matchup
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 1,435 yards through five games. He has 11 TD passes and four interceptions. His ability to extend plays creates additional problems for opposing defenses.
Chambliss has completed 122 of 174 passes this season. He has also rushed for 113 yards and five TD’s.
Missouri must contain his movement without leaving receivers uncovered.
Missouri QB Austin Simmons has thrown for 1,434 yards through six games. He has 14 TD passes against one interception. His decision-making has helped the Tigers maintain an efficient passing attack.
Simmons has completed 107 of 165 passes this season. He is listed as probable on the SEC availability report.
The Tigers need him healthy and comfortable against Ole Miss’s defensive pressure.
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Chambliss presents the greater rushing threat, while Simmons has protected the football more effectively. Both quarterbacks have demonstrated the ability to produce explosive passing plays.
Backup Deuce Knight has completed four of eight passes for 68 yards with one interception for Ole Miss. Missouri reserve Matt Zollers has completed eight of 13 attempts for 87 yards.
Ole Miss needs Chambliss to recognize pressure before leaving the pocket. Missouri must give Simmons time to attack coverage without forcing difficult throws. The quarterback who handles third downs more efficiently will give his team an important advantage.
Missouri Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels bottom line: Missouri’s defensive front will challenge Chambliss, while Ole Miss must find a way to slow the Tigers’ balanced offensive attack.
Missouri Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels Football Betting Trends
- The Tigers have a 70% success rate against the spread in away games over their last 20 outings.
- Plus, Missouri has a 70% win rate straight up after a win in their last 30 games.
- The Rebels have won 96% of their last 25 home games straight up.
- Ole Miss has a 90% win rate straight up as favorites in their last 30 games.
- Also, the Rebels have a 54.2% success rate against the spread as favorites in their last 24 games.
- Missouri has a 56.7% success rate against the spread after a win in their last 30 games.
Tigers Rebels Free Pick: Missouri Tigers +6.5
Here is my Tigers Rebels free pick: I’m taking Mizzou plus the points. Ole Miss deserves respect in Oxford, but this line asks the Rebels to beat a physical, balanced Missouri team by a touchdown. That’s a bigger assignment than the number suggests. The Tigers have the running game to stay out of obvious passing situations, and that matters against an Ole Miss defense that has allowed opponents to move the football.
Jamal Roberts can make the Rebels commit extra defenders to the box, opening opportunities elsewhere.
Missouri doesn’t need to win a shootout to cash this bet.
Missouri’s ability to win early downs gives the Tigers a legitimate path to staying inside the number.
Ole Miss will have its scoring opportunities, but the Rebels haven’t consistently stopped opponents from answering. If Missouri protects the football and finishes drives, the Tigers can keep pressure on the home favorite throughout the second half.
I’m more concerned about Missouri’s road execution than its talent.
The Rebels are dangerous, and Chambliss can change a game quickly, but asking Ole Miss to create a seven-point margin against this opponent is asking plenty.
Missouri has enough balance to respond when the Rebels score, and its defense can produce the stops that decide a close SEC game.
The sportsbooks are giving us nearly a TD with a team that belongs on this field, so Tigers +6.5 is my NCAAF system play.
Today’s Week 7 NCAAF Free Pick
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Ole Miss Rebels on X
Game 6️⃣
🆚 Missouri
📍 Oxford, MS
🏟️ Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
🕚 2:30 PM CT
📺 SEC Network#HottyToddy https://t.co/aMG1E5LW6p
— Ole Miss Football (@OleMissFB) October 14, 2026
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