Free NCAA Football Prediction: Kansas State vs. Kansas Odds
Looking for Kansas State Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks free picks? College football betting sees the Wildcats taking on the Jayhawks on Saturday, November 26th, 2022, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Wildcats Jayhawks free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas State Wildcats (8-3) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (6-5)
Date: Saturday, November 26th, 2022
Time: 8:00 PM EST
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Kansas State -11.5 (-110) / Kansas +11.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Kansas State -429 / Kansas +320
NCAA Betting Total Odds: 62.5
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With a win the Wildcats can secure their spot in the Big 12 title game and a date with TCU. Kansas has met their bowl eligibility and locked up savior Lance Leipold through the 2029 season.
Prognosticators wouldn’t have predicted the Wildcats to make it to this point after losing Skylar Thompson and bringing in the long maligned Adrian Martinez. Credit to all involved, they’ve had a spectacular season that could crescendo with a conference title. This rivalry game has high implication after being a laugher over the last decade.
How about the season the Jayhawks have had? Switching over to Jalon Daniels changed everything for Kansas and has delivered them to bowl season. The Big 12 was a competitive conference this year — perhaps the most deep conference if not for the SEC. There is legitimacy to what they have done this season and what they’ll do in the future.
Kansas State Wildcats
Adrian Martinez deserves credit for helping the Wildcats to their 8-3 record but dual threat backup Will Howard deserves praise as well. Stepping in cold and delivering wins is a tall task, but he’s been up to the challenge. His play led K-state to a 48-31 win in Morganton last weekend.
Deuce Vaughn leads the backfield but DJ Giddens also saw some carries. I’m a fan of two headed monster backfields anyway. Kansas State doesn’t blow you away with success rates, but they profile well in rushing explosiveness (19th). The Wildcats are 27th in the country in yards per play, which tells us long downs and distances aren’t drive killers.
While the offense only passes about 42% of the time, Howard posted 296 yards and two scores last week, which means he’s still capable of leading the offense. West Virginia has been a generous defense this season though.
The defense has been a mixed bag, allowing 3 points to Baylor and shutting out Oklahoma State, but also surrendered 31 or more to West Virginia, Texas and TCU. They’re just average in defending explosiveness which is what Kansas thrives at. They haven’t generated much havoc and don’t figure to this week with Kansas’s o-line.
Jalon Daniels returned last week but struggled. He figures to have shaken off some rust so we could see an improved version this week. Daniels leads an incredibly explosive offense — one that trails only Florida. The Jayhawks don’t run with pace though, similar to K-state.
RB Devin Neal is a 1000 yard rusher this season, behind a line 13th in offensive line yards. Their explosiveness shows up mostly in the running game (5th) so the K-state front will have their hands full. The weather doesn’t figure to play a part in the game so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them continue their pace.
Though they aren’t high in seconds per play, Kansas does score a touchdown on 39% of drives, good for 17th in the country. That’s no doubt due to their yards per play mark of 6.9 (6th).
The main question for the Jayhawks is, can they stop the K-state running game and Deuce Vaughn? Kansas is 118th in def. rushing success rate. They also don’t do a good job of defending explosiveness, so we could see a high scoring game. Will Howard took advantage of a weak Mountaineer defense last week and could do so again.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas’s last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas State
- Kansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas
- Kansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas
4* Free Kansas State Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Kansas State has a trip to the conference title game on the line, so their focus won’t be anywhere but this game. They’re also 4-1 ATS as a home favorite, covering by an average of 10.9 points.
Jalon Daniels is returning from injury and that’s always a tricky proposition from a running QB because it calls into question something we can’t quantify — his confidence.
Kansas has traveled well this season as a road underdog going 3-2 ATS covering by an average of 8.2 points.
I think the Wildcats take care of business at home. Kansas has little left to play for, other than a better bowl game, but any bowl game to them is a win as a program. Leipold also received his extension, so I can sense some complacency.
4* Free Kansas State Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks NCAA Betting Pick: Kansas St -11.5
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