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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-10-15 | Colorado v. Arizona State -14.5 | Top | 23-48 | Win | 100 | 82 h 37 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona State (#370) The Sun Devils are an elite team that got off to a sluggish start to the season; exactly the type of squad that offers tremendous value here in October. This squad won ten games in the loaded PAC-12 South last year, and returned the vast majority of that talent on both sides of the football. Early season losses to quality foes -- Top 10 caliber squads in USC and Texas A&M – didn’t derail that season, as clearly evidenced by last week’s ‘circle the wagons’ upset win at UCLA. Head coach Todd Graham: “We've got seven more steps to get to the game we want to be playing in, and the next one and the most important one is Colorado.” Afer an 0-4 ATS start to the season, the Sun Devils offer legitimate value moving forward. While Arizona State has found their mojo and regained their confidence without going into panic mode, that’s not the case for Colorado. The Buffs put a ton of energy and effort into the Oregon game last Saturday Night. They played even with the reeling Ducks for a half, but the second half was fairly typical out of what we’ve seen from Colorado in recent years – they couldn’t trade points, they couldn’t get stops and they wore down badly on both sides of the football in the trenches. Mike McIntyre does not have a good offensive line. His team speed on defense is abysmally slow. QB Sefo Liafau is no playmaker, nor does he have explosive, quick strike talent surrounding him. The Buffs closed out last year with three consecutive road losses by 18 points or more in PAC-12 play, just 1-10 SU on the highway ( a three point win at UMass as 18.5 point favorites) to show for the three years of the McIntyre era. Arizona State wants to play at an extremely fast pace under Todd Graham. They ran a season high 90 plays in the win over UCLA last week. Colorado’s limited defensive depth is a real problem against fast paced teams, as we saw clearly against Oregon last week, when that defense wore down. And despite the calendar turning to October, temperatures are still expected to be in the 90’s at kickoff in Tempe, giving the Sun Devils another significant edge. Don’t expect a pretty second half from the worn down Buffs defense in the desert heat. Big Ticket: Take Arizona State. |
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10-10-15 | Miami (Fla) +9 v. Florida State | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Miami FL (#371) Florida State can’t be laying more than a TD to any decent foe these days. The Seminoles have been in pointspread freefall for more than a year; just 5-13 ATS since the start of the 2014 campaign In one of their two pointspread covers this year, FSU gained a grand total of 217 yards of offense ( at Boston College); not a scenario likely to produce many ATS victories. Last week, after star RB Dalvin Cook got hurt (still questionable for this week; if he plays, the line will go up), Florida State was outrushed 127-33 by Wake Forest over the final 3 ½ quarters of play. Yes, that’s the same Wake Forest team that managed only 17 points against Army and Syracuse in a pair of previous ATS losses. Why is Florida State’s offense struggling mightily? Simple – their offensive line is no good. They’ve got two freshmen, two sophomore and one junior starting on the OL. The backups include four more freshmen. This OL is still very much a work in progress, not an established, elite unit by any stretch of the imagination after sending three starters to the NFL Draft this past offseason. Yet despite all of that offensive line weakness, Seminoles QB Everett Golson has not thrown a single interception yet this season. In fact, Florida State’s offense hasn’t turned the ball over once in five games – their lone lost turnover all year came on a fumbled punt return. That type of streak isn’t going to go on forever, and Miami’s defense is by far, the most athletic unit that the Seminoles have faced this year. Don’t expect FSU to get through this game without a fumble or interception (or two, or three, or four) against the ACC leader in turnover margin (Miami is +9). A weaker Miami team than this one led a stronger FSU team than this one with less than four minutes remaining on the clock last year. FSU got their first lead of the game with a late TD, winning by four, and Hurricanes QB Brad Kaaya struggled throughout the second half. Kaaya is in excellent current form, a returning veteran QB running an offense that he’s comfortable with, primed for redemption here. I’m anticipating another tight affair this year, which makes taking the points with the Hurricanes a clear choice for this bettor. Take Miami-FL. |
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10-10-15 | Washington State v. Oregon OVER 71 | 45-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Oregon- Washington State OVER (#359-360) Both teams offensive strengths play well against their opponents defensive weaknesses, and neither defense is any good. Both teams are well accustomed to high scoring PAC-12 shootouts, very comfortable with no-huddle, uptempo schemes. The recent series history is filled with high scoring shootouts. Oregon has hung at least 38 against Wassou in each of the last eight meetings since 2007, while Wassou has hung 31 and 38 on the Ducks defense over the last two years. I’m not expecting anything dramatically different this year, in a game that has true ‘high flying shootout’ potential – the loser here could easily score five TD’s or more. Oregon’s depth chart shows two freshmen (Glen Ihenacho and Ugo Amadi) and two sophomores (Arrion Springs and Ty Griffin) on the two-deep at cornerback this week. Those four DB’s have never faced Mike Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ offense, and Ducks head coach Mike Helfrich is nervous: “So much of it is just fundamentals. A coverage fitting a route or a formation, however it goes. Communicating with confidence and then aligning. That sounds so simple but when things are going quickly or different than they’ve shown on film, that is when you have to go back to fundamentals and play. That’s always a step or two slower if it is a new guy or a younger guy.” It’s surely worth noting that Washington State ran a grand total of two running plays out of 35 second half plays against Cal last week; an extreme pass heavy approach that is almost always good news for Over bettors. Look for Wassou’s WR playmakers Gabe Marks and Keith Harrington to benefit from Luke Falk’s aggressive downfield passing game. Washington State’s offensive line played poorly at Cal last week, and Coach Leach was not amused. He called out his OL this week, expecting a better showing on Saturday: “If you’re going to be an offensive lineman and you’re the toughest unit on the team, you have to be the toughest. Go out and whip the guy across from you because you’re tougher than he is. If that’s not your mentality, maybe you ought to play something else, like Scrabble, maybe.” Guard Gunner Eklund: “We didn’t play good enough (vs. Cal). If we’d played better, things would have turned out differently. We have to have a better mentality to attack each game. … We just have to come out with the mentality that no one is getting past us five.” Oregon found their missing offensive mojo in the second half last week against Colorado – they didn’t punt or turn the ball over after halftime while running for 361 yards at a 6.0 yards per carry clip for the game. Even with limited QB play in the post-Mariota era, the Ducks still have a tremendous offensive line and a stable of big play running backs. Look for Royce Freeman and Taj Griffin to have banner afternoons against a weak defensive front seven for the Cougars, and expect both teams to be trading touchdowns from start to finish. Take the Over. |
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10-09-15 | NC State v. Virginia Tech +1 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
Take Virginia Tech (#310) NC State is still an overvalued commodity after opening up their season with dominating wins over four patsies. Playing Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion and South Alabama has not prepared them for ACC play, but it has left NC State in a pointspread range that they don’t deserve to be in thanks to that 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS start. Last week against Louisville, the Wolfpack offense couldn’t move the football, held to 11 first downs and 228 yards of offense at home. I’m not expecting points or yards to be any easier for NC State to gain on the road against the strong Virginia Tech defense this week. This is a true ‘circle the wagons’ game for the Hokies after back-2-back tough losses in rainy conditions. Don’t underestimate the weather factor in either one of those two defeats – the miserable conditions were certainly an issue for the Hokies in both games. It looks as if Virginia Tech will have starting QB Michael Brewer back in the lineup (officially a game time decision), which would make this pointspread a true bargain. It’s worth noting that Virginia Tech was tied with #1 Ohio St when Brewer went down in Week 1. NC State’s offensive weakness – their protection schemes and offensive line play – was on full display last week against Louisville. That is particularly bad news here facing off against Virginia Tech’s defensive strength – in the trenches. Look for the Hokies to control the line of scrimmage and get their season back on track with a win and cover over the Wolfpack. Take Virginia Tech. |
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10-03-15 | Washington State +19 v. California | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Washington State (#177) Money has shown for the Cal Bears in every game they’ve played this year. There was a wiseguy move on the Bears against San Diego State, another one against Texas and $$ showed at the opener for the Bears again last week in their win at Washington. No surprise, then, that the money flow on Cal has continued this week, with an opener as low as -13.5 bet all the way up to -19 before some modest buy-back on the Cougars in the last 24 hours. I could understand the concept of Cal as a ‘bet-on’ team coming into the campaign, but whatever value there was on Cal a month ago is gone now. This is a downright lousy spot for Sonny Dykes’ squad. They’re coming off two HUGE wins on the road at Texas and Washington, both tight, physical and competitive games, right down to the wire. Up next? A huge game at Utah, followed by a bye, UCLA, USC and Oregon in consecutive weeks. Where’s the natural letdown during that span? Right here, this week, against a Cougars team that has consistently been a PAC-12 bottom feeder since Mike Price left town a dozen years ago. And while Cal’s offense is good enough to trade points with anybody, their defense isn’t good enough to lay points against anybody! We saw that clearly against Texas two weeks ago, when the Bears blew a three score lead. We almost saw it again last week against Washington, but the Huskies five turnovers doomed their chances for the upset. And we certainly saw it last year against Wassou, when the Cougars hung 59 points and 812 yards on Cal, but lost the game when a last second chip shot field goal went awry. Cal was favored in PAC-12 play twice last year; -14 at home against Colorado and -3.5 at home against Washington. The Huskies beat ‘em by four scores, and Cal needed double OT to escape with a one point win over the Buffaloes. In the Sonny Dykes era, they’ve also lost outright as home chalk against BYU, and they never sniffed a pointspread cover against Portland State in a 37-30 win as 28 point favorites. A one point win over Texas and a six point win over Washington haven’t convinced me that the Bears are ready to lay double digits in conference play. Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense has given Cal trouble. The Cougs hung 44 on the Bears in 2013 and 59 on them last year. They hung 559 yards and 37 points on Rutgers in their lone previous road game this season. While Cal just got ranked for the first time since the Jeff Tedford era, Wassou is coming off a bye, rested, ready and prepped to atone for last year’s one point loss. Dykes is worried about a letdown: “I think you always have to guard against that, especially when you don't have a lot of experience being ranked.” Expect a battle, not a blowout! Take Washington State. |
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10-03-15 | San Jose State v. Auburn -20 | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#180) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting San Jose State last week in their 49-23 blowout win over Fresno. It was a huge game for San Jose against their rivals, and the Spartans ran up the score late, thanks to a 42 carry, 300 yard effort from RB Tyler Ervin. Ervin was a factor when San Jose travelled to Auburn last year, catching a short pass and racing 75 yards for a touchdown. Of course, that didn’t matter very much for the final score – Auburn won the game 59-13. This year’s matchup presents a very different dynamic compared to last year. This time around, San Jose is coming off a huge win, a difference maker for their season. On deck for the Spartans is a road game at UNLV, then homecoming against San Diego State, two HUGE conference games. That leaves their #1 goal here very simple – collect the check for their beating, and stay as healthy as possible moving forward. Specifically, after Irvin’s 42 carry effort (along with four pass receptions) last week, the Spartans lone playmaker isn’t likely to get extended playing time here. Spartans senior QB Joe Gray completed 20 of 23 passes last week. I watched the game from start to finish, and it’s worth noting that the Spartans have limited playmaking ability at WR, and Gray has no ability to connect with receivers downfield, a dink-and-dunker at QB. Gray also holds the ball too long before he releases. And San Jose’s offensive line is not primed to give him quality protection against Will Muschamp’s improving defense. Bottom line – I’m not expecting much from the Spartans here. Auburn is in a very different position compared to last year as well. In 2014, they were fat and happy, coming off a beatdown of Arkansas, and they still drilled the Spartans by more than six touchdowns. This year, Auburn is desperate and hungry for an opponent they can whip. We saw dramatic improvements on both sides of the ball last week, even though those improvements didn’t show up on the scoreboard thanks to some red zone failures against Mississippi State – four trips inside the Bulldogs ten yard line ended up producing zero touchdowns. Against a San Jose St defense, all four of those drives would have likely been TD’s. All the talk in Auburn this week has been about creating big plays and getting off to a fast start San Jose State is vulnerable to both. And considering the 46 point margin of victory last year (along with the -33 point spread), the price to support the Tigers here makes Auburn a legitimate pointspread bargain on Saturday. No surprise here if this spread is covered by halftime. Take Auburn. |
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10-03-15 | Ohio v. Akron +3 | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 71 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Akron (#122) Under-the-radar teams like Akron offer legitimate moneymaking potential when they make dramatic improvements in season. And the Zips have a neon ‘buy’ sign blinking right now; a team that has been priced incorrectly in the betting markets from Day 1 this year. Terry Bowden brought in a monster haul of offseason transfers on the defensive side of the football, getting five Power 5 conference transfers into his starting lineup. In Week 1, they completely shut down Samaje Perine and Oklahoma’s run game, but nobody noticed because the offense didn’t work in a 41-3 loss/no cover. In Week 2, they shut down Pitt’s powerful running game, holding the Panthers to 307 total yards but nobody noticed because the offense didn’t work in a 24-7 loss/no cover. In Week 3, the Zips made a QB switch against Savannah State, bringing in ‘Sheriff Woody’ (Thomas Woodson), the former third stringer. Again, nobody noticed, because it was Savannah State and again, Akron failed to cover, winning only 52-9 as 45 point favorites. Last week, Sheriff Woody led the Zips to a blowout win as road underdogs at Louisiana-Lafayette. The defense was dominant once again, but this time, the offense was capable of moving the football. The Rajun Cajuns hung tough at Kentucky, but they got wiped out as a rested favorite on their home field. Hence my strong ‘buy’ sign on the Zips! Akron suffered a stinging three point loss to Ohio U last year, their seventh consecutive defeat in what had been a fairly competitive series. Zips senior defensive tackle Cody Grice: “I want OU, and I mean that. It seems like every year that's always the game where we go through our slump. I have no problems with anybody on their team, nothing like that, but I want OU." After beating up on the likes of Idaho, Marshall (in a dismal spot for the Thundering Herd) and FCS Southeast Louisiana in their first three games, Frank Solich’s Bobcats finally lost last week. I’m not expecting a bounceback win against a particularly hungry and motivated home underdog! Take Akron. |
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10-03-15 | Iowa +7 v. Wisconsin | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 69 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#137) When former head coach Gary Anderson jumped ship in the offseason to take the Oregon State job – not exactly an ‘upward profile’ move on the coaching carousel – it certainly raised red flags for this bettor. Sure, some of that move was probably Barry Alvarez related – Alvarez doesn’t appear to be the easiest athletic director to work with. But some of that move was also probably ‘state of the program’ related. Wisconsin has been very good for the better part of the last two decades; an elite level Big 10 team. The Badgers program has nowhere to go but down. And we’re certainly seeing signs of that here in 2015. Wisconsin has a senior QB in Joel Stave, but Stave has only 72 completions in his first four games. The Badgers lack big play weapons at wide receiver. Their big play running back, Corey Clement, is hurt. The Wisconsin offensive line – traditionally an area of strength – is in major rebuilding mode after graduating a trio of multi-year starters in the offseason. The Badgers defense has allowed a grand total of three points against weaker foes over the last two weeks, but Wisconsin’s offensive weakness left them lucky to earn a 1-1 ATS split in those contests. This certainly isn’t a blowout series, with two of the last three meetings decided by less than a field goal and the home team coming up on the short end of the scoreboard each of the last six times these Big 10 foes have played. And there’s plenty of positives coming out of Iowa City, with the Hawkeyes off to a 4-0 start. Kirk Ferentz has a legitimate playmaker at QB in dual threat CJ Beathard. RB’s Jordan Canzeri and LeShun Daniels can grind out yards and first downs on the ground. Iowa is solid defensively, and their kicker, Marshall Koehn is a legit weapon, nailing a 57 yarder to beat Pitt. Expect a one score final margin here, making +7 an attractive number to take with the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa. |
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10-03-15 | Michigan v. Maryland +16 | Top | 28-0 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Maryland (#206) IMPORTANT NOTE: There has been a change to the start time due to the potential of Hurricane Joaquin's impact. Instead of an 8 PM EST kickoff, it's now scheduled for noon EST (9 AM Vegas time). Michigan is wildly overvalued here following three consecutive blowout wins at home. The national pundits were shocked by Michigan’s 31-0 win over BYU last week, but experienced handicappers know that it was a truly miserable spot for the Cougars; a spot so bad that it mitigates the result. Prior to that the Wolverines beat up UNLV in a game where Rebels QB Blake Decker got hurt. Michigan failed to cover the inflated pointspread in that game. And before that, the Wolverines beat an Oregon State team with a frosh QB making his first career road start. Even that game was closer than the final score would indicate – a bad snap on a punt led to a momentum swinging Wolverines TD just before halftime. So, the Wolverines have just played three relative patsies (BYU was a patsie, given the spot) at home. Now they’ve got to go on the road and win by a three score margin in order to cover this pointspread. It’s surely worth noting that Maryland was good enough to beat the Wolverines in the Big House by a TD last year. And it’s surely worth noting that in Michigan’s lone previous road tilt, QB Jake Rudoch threw three interceptions in a loss/no cover for the Wolverines . It’s also worth noting that Michigan’s best offensive weapon, RB DeVeon Smith, was in a walking boot following the BYU game, even though he is listed as ‘probable’ this week. Maryland’s defense got torched by an uptempo, spread offense when they faced Bowling Green. They got torched by an uptempo, spread offense when they faced West Virginia last week. But in two games against non-spread offenses, the Terps stop unit was just fine, holding both foes to 300 yards or less. Michigan’s offense is the antithesis of the uptempo spread attacks that Maryland has been struggling with! And coming off their ugly blowout at West Virginia, Randy Edsall’s ‘Leadership Council’ of seniors held a player’s only meeting at 6:45 AM earlier in the week. The goal was to make sure that everybody was on the same page prior to the start of Big 10 play. Senior QB Caleb Rowe talked about the 13 turnovers the offense has committed over the last three weeks; a turnover barrage that has made the team look far worse than they actually are. Maryland has a much better game in them than the one they just played. They’ve got a big edge on special teams, when William Likely has emerged as one of the most dangerous return men in the country. With Coach Edsall fighting for his job and the Terps fighting for their season, I’m expecting an inspired effort and a competitive game in College Park on Saturday Night. It’s surely worth noting that Michigan’s last Big 10 road win by more than a single point (or in overtime) came back in 2012. Big Ticket: Take Maryland. |
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10-01-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati +6.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
Take Cincinnati (#104) Miami went 1-4 ATS on the road last year consistently unable to win games by margin in a hostile environment. The ‘Canes were tied 20-20 midway through the third quarter with lowly FAU in their lone previous road game this year before an Owls second half turnover induced meltdown. The Hurricanes were good enough to build a big lead at home against Nebraska prior to their bye, but they weren’t mature enough to hold it, allowing three late Huskers scores once Nebraska got the momentum. And Cinci is certainly potent enough offensively to trade scores with Miami all night long, even without Gunner Kiel behind center. Redshirt frosh QB Hayden Moore threw for 557 yards last week. WR’s Max Morrison, Shaq Washington and Chris Moore are capable of trading scores with the ‘Canes all night long. Head coach Tommy Tuberville: “Everything this week is built around Hayden now. It would be a different offense if it was Gunner.” Miami doesn’t have much film of Moore to break down…. While the Hurricanes are rested and ready off their bye week, they also have a real potential lookahead to their matchup with Florida State next week, followed by Virginia Tech and Clemson. I don’t expect their ‘A’ game against a team they beat by 3 TD’s last year. Meanwhile, two loss Cincinnati on national TV at home can be expected to step up. The Bearcats offense has 636, 557, 545 and 752 yards of offense in their first four games. Anything close to that level of production this week and the SU win is within the realm of reason; good news for us with the pointspread getting bet up to +7 here on gameday morning. Take Cinci. |
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09-26-15 | Fresno State v. San Jose State -4.5 | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 81 h 33 m | Show | |
Take San Jose St (#406) Fresno State has played three games so far this season, and they’ve looked god-awful in all three. Don’t be fooled for a minute by the ‘competitive looking’ box score against Utah last week. The game was a blowout into the fourth quarter, before the Bulldogs backup QB took advantage of backup Utah defenders playing prevent defense, with an onside kick recovery and a Utah fumble (giving Fresno a short field) in the mix. While the game was still competitive, the Bulldogs drive chart looked like this: field goal (no yards gained following a Utah fumble deep in their own territory), fumble, punt, punt, punt, ran out of time at the end of first half, fumble, punt, stopped on downs. After the game, it was announced that Fresno starting QB Chasson Virgil – a bigtime prospect with NFL potential like predecessor David Carr – was out for the year with a broken clavicle. His replacement, Zack Greenlee, threw those three fourth quarter touchdown passes. He then proceeded to get arrested later that night for public drunkenness and obstruction of a police officer. Fresno runs a fairly clean program and there’s been significant pressure on head coach Tim DeRuyter to suspend Greenlee (and his cohort, LB Brandon Hughes) for at least this game. DeRuyter isn’t telling us anything: “We’re not going to make an announcement on anything that’s going to happen, whether he’s playing or not playing, until Saturday….Discipline will be handled internally.” If Greenlee does play, this pointspread should stand pat – the markets have not priced any potential suspension into the number. If he does get suspended, this pointspread should rise – I have no hesitation locking in at the current number. And Greenlee is no sure thing to play well if he does suit up, a week with more distractions than most. Throw in a noticeably weak receiving corps, a completely rebuilt defensive line and a highly suspect secondary and you can see why the Bulldogs are a clear ‘fade’ for me on Saturday Night. There was ENORMOUS betting marketplace love for San Jose State two weeks ago as they travelled to Air Force to take on the Falcons. San Jose hung tough into the fourth quarter but fell apart late, outscored by 20 in the final frame of a 21 point loss. It was a similar story last week – heavy wiseguy $$ for the Spartans in a game they led by a touchdown at halftime at Oregon State. The second half wasn’t pretty though, as the Spartans were outscored 21-0. All of that sharp $$ lost on San Jose for two straight weeks, and we’ve seen no sign that there’s any Spartan $$ on the horizon this week. That offers us legitimate value on the San Jose side, especially with the Spartans expected to get their own starting QB back, junior Kenny Potter after he was knocked out of the Oregon State game with a bad ankle. This is Ron Carragher’s best team in his three years on the job, showing a requisite level of athleticism on both sides of the ball that we haven’t seen from the Spartans since Mike McIntyre left town. San Jose beat Fresno by ten on the Bulldogs last visit to this field, and they’re in revenge for a poorly played two TD loss at Fresno last year. I expect them to win comfortably. Take San Jose State. |
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09-26-15 | Ball State +20 v. Northwestern | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Ball State (#397) In many ways, Northwestern is one of the easier teams in college football to handicap. The Wildcats have consistently been a terrible favorite and an excellent underdog throughout the Pat Fitzgerald era. You can count on Northwestern stepping up for their biggest games, and you can count on the Wildcats looking flat in their ‘flat spot’ games. That helps explain Northwestern’s 10-22 ATS mark as home chalk in the Fitzgerald era. It’s surely worth noting that the Wildcats were favored four times last year. They lost three of those games in outright fashion, and didn’t sniff a spread cover in the fourth. And Northwestern certainly isn’t a ‘blowout’ team this year either; lacking explosive playmakers. Against two FBS foes, they’ve managed to score a grand total of two touchdowns, held to 16 and 19 points in those games, while averaging less than four yards per offensive snap. They’ve got a ‘still learning’ first year starter at QB, and lack both size and speed among the skill position weapons surrounding him. The Wildcats have to grind out scores and drives, dinking and dunking their way down the field; not a squad with much ‘quick strike, big play’ potential, even against a MAC school. From a spot standpoint, this one stinks to high heaven for the home favorite. They’re coming off an impressive road win at Duke, propelling the Wildcats into the Top 25. On deck, they’ve got their Big 10 opener, at home against Minnesota, a major revenge spot from last year’s loss to the Gophers. Can you say ‘Flat Spot’? Ball State has done one thing consistently throughout the Pete Lembo era – the Cardinals come to play against the big boys. They were +19 at Iowa last year, but were competitive throughout, losing by only four. In 2013, they won SU at Virginia. In 2012, they won SU as underdogs at Indiana, covered at Clemson and beat USF SU at home. They beat Indiana SU as dogs in 2011 as well. That’s a consistent and impressive track record of stepping up in class well. Yes, the Cardinals will be giving frosh QB Riley Neal his first road start here, coming off an impressive game in relief of former starter Jack Milas. But while the QB is young, the talent around him isn’t. Ball St has four fifth year starters on their offensive line, a pair of senior receivers and a senior tight end. Expect a competitive contest, start to finish. Take Ball State. |
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09-26-15 | Arkansas State +7.5 v. Toledo | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 6 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arkansas State (#335) Three key factors in play here. First, this is a major ‘bowl revenge’ spot for the talented and motivated road underdog after Toledo ripped through their defense for 63 points and 540 yards in the GoDaddy Bowl last January. Rockets head coach Matt Campbell said it best: “We played them just four games ago but they're really a totally different team. Four games ago they were an injured team at the end of last season and they're a very healthy team coming into this season." Campbell is 100% correct in that assessment. The Red Wolves were missing several key skill position players on offense in that game. Several more who played were at less than 100%. And Arkansas State’s defensive line was in shambles at that late stage of the campaign, an injury riddled mess. That’s not the case for Arkansas State here. This time, they’ll have a healthy RB Michael Gordon and a healthy WR in JD McKissic; the team’s leading rusher and receiver. Most importantly, the Red Wolves will also have a much deeper defensive line to keep the Rockets running game bottled up after Kareem Hunt ate them for breakfast in the bowl. In each of the last two games, that defensive front has been able to control the line of scrimmage, and the third game came at USC. Toledo is not USC. Secondly, this is a major flat spot for Toledo. The Rockets are coming off two HUGE wins, beating SEC foe Arkansas at Arkansas, then returning home to beat Big 12 foe Iowa State in double OT last week. It’s the first time in program history that the Rockets have beaten two Power 5 schools in the same season – they’re getting Top 25 votes this week. Up next for Toledo? Their MAC opener; a tough game at Ball State. In between? Just this matchup against a team they beat by 19 last year. Toledo’s offense hasn’t shown much explosiveness at all this year, and a flat effort here isn’t likely to help matters. And it’s surely worth noting that Arkansas State had a ‘near bye’ last week against FCS Missouri State, leaving them as the much fresher squad here. Third, Arkansas State just got their quarterback back. Dual threat senior Fredi Knighton was an All-Sun Belt first teamer last year. The team behind him has won a dozen road games in SU fashion over the last four years, while going 8-4 ATS as road underdogs during that span. Knighton missed last week’s game after suffering a groin injury the previous week. Head coach Blake Anderson: “We expect him to play and expect him to play well. He's doing better than he's expected. So we'll expect him to be ready to roll." Anderson isn’t taking this revenge matchup lightly by any stretch of the imagination. "It's a great barometer to where we're at at this point. They're a quality opponent and they've got a lot of confidence. It's a great gauge of what we can be.” Take the points, but be sure to sprinkle in at least a taste of the moneyline for this one. Big Ticket: Take Arkansas State. |
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09-26-15 | TCU v. Texas Tech OVER 80.5 | 55-52 | Win | 100 | 75 h 39 m | Show | |
Take TCU – Texas Tech OVER (#379-380) Here’s an excerpt from my write-up last week; an easy winner with TCU Over the total, a bet that cashed midway through the third quarter. “TCU is a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. The Horned Frogs aren’t just an elite level offensive team – they also play at an extremely fast pace. Gary Patterson’s squad ran 82 plays last week despite leading by margin throughout and slowing down the game after halftime. Their last TD drive lasted 16 plays and took 10 minutes off the clock, deflating both their yards-per-play numbers and their pace rating. “On the heels of a sluggish offensive showing in their opener against Minnesota (only 23 points on 5.2 yards per play), we’re getting a real bargain on this total. The Horned Frogs are capable of scoring quick strike, big play TD’s every time they have possession of the football. They had seven TD drives that lasted two minutes or less last week alone. “TCU’s defense was a major question mark coming into the season, the only team in the country without a single start returning at linebacker. Then they lost arguably their best new starter for the season when Sammy Douglas got hurt. Fellow starting LB Mike Freeze took a personal leave of absence following Week 1. They just lost senior safety Kenny Iloka with a season ending injury last week. Pass rushing end Mike Tuana is hurt as well. Last year’s sack leader, James McFarland, just had surgery, out indefinitely. Coach Patterson: “Every week has to be a learning experience. We've can't just be getting ready for the team we're playing, but we also have to keep preparing for the season." Expect touchdowns in bunches!” Things are even worse for TCU defensively this week! Senior defensive end Mike Tuaua was just suspended for an off campus robbery. They’re now down SEVEN STARTERS on defense since the beginning of summer camp. Coach Patterson: “You’re working with younger guys, whether they go in the ballgame or not, preparing guys who maybe didn’t think they would be a guy that might have to play.” TCU embarrassed Texas Tech last year in an 82-23 absolute annihilation in Red Raiders starting QB Patrick Mahomes first career start. But Coach Patterson said it best: “(Last year) he basically had an option package set up for him, and now he’s throwing the ball all over the field and is just doing a great job. So there’s not a comparison.” Mahomes ranks #6 in the country in passing yards and the Red raiders have scored 35+ in all three previous games. Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury isn’t resting on his laurels following the Red Raiders impressive win at Arkansas last week, calling TCU a “whole other beast” compared to the Razorbacks. When it comes to pace of play and explosive skill position talent, that’s certainly true – the Horned Frogs are averaging just shy of 50 points per game this year. Kingsbury is no fool – Texas Tech’s best chance for success here is to push the pace, and wear down the paper-thin TCU defensive depth. It’s also worth noting that Texas Tech will be playing without a pair of impact safeties this week. And with the betting markets continued reluctance to bet games Over 80, there’s legitimate value here! Look for the highest total on the board to result in one of the highest scoring games of the week. Take the Over. |
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09-26-15 | Virginia Tech -8 v. East Carolina | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#325) I put this play out early in the week to get the best of the number, expecting Virginia Tech money. As expected, that Hokies $$ has come – even before I finished the write-up! And it’s easy to understand why. This Hokies program was among the elite programs in the nation for the better part of a decade They played for the national title back in 1999 and won ten or more games ten times in a twelve year span that ended in 2011. They underachieved for several years with Logan Thomas behind center, a much heralded prospect who never lived up to his billing. Last year, the Hokies were the only team in the country to beat Ohio State, but things went south immediately following that win. The Hokies were home favorites against East Carolina, but the Pirates came into Blacksburg and walked out with a 28-21 victory. Virginia Tech then proceeded to lose four of their next six; another disappointing campaign. Here are some key quotes from the Hokies following their blowout win at Purdue last week, talking about their chance for redemption as they face off against East Carolina this week. Fullback Sam Rogers: “Even after Ohio State last year, it wasn’t that everybody else was so high on us, it was that we were too high on ourselves. This year, we’re more mature, more grounded. … We’re not going to look past an opponent this year.” More Rogers: “I think the mentality up front is completely different. The offensive line is just doing a great job of getting after people. I think we’ve got plenty of back that can do stuff which is awesome. Any time four or five guys that can run the ball and play confident, it’s gonna be a special team.: Wide receiver Isaiah Ford: “We took a lot of heat last year from a lot of people knowing that our defense held us in a lot of ballgames, so the offense was inconsistent and we couldn’t come through. We took that upon ourselves in the offseason and in the spring and in the summer, so we worked really hard and now it’s starting to show.” Last year’s win for the Pirates came thanks to stellar play from QB Shane Carden and WR’s Justin Hardy and Cam Worthy. That trio is gone, and the replacement level of talent isn’t quite at the same level. Offensive coordinator Dave Nichol: “Virginia Tech’s secondary) is filled with long, big physical guys…The best group we play this year on the back end, definitely.” The Pirates couldn’t pull away from lowly Towson in their opener, and their defense got gashed by Navy’s triple option last week. But their surprisingly competitive loss at Florida –a game that was more about the Gators looking flat than about ECU stepping up -- certainly affected the marketplace. As single digit road chalk, the Hokies sure look like a solid bet to take care of business in revenge mode against their overrated foe. Take Virginia Tech. |
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09-19-15 | SMU v. TCU OVER 66 | 37-56 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
Take SMU – TCU OVER (#187-188) TCU is a threat to approach or exceed this total all by themselves. The Horned Frogs aren’t just an elite level offensive team – they also play at an extremely fast pace. Gary Patterson’s squad ran 82 plays last week despite leading by margin throughout and slowing down the game after halftime. Their last TD drive lasted 16 plays and took 10 minutes off the clock, deflating both their yards-per-play numbers and their pace rating. On the heels of a sluggish offensive showing in their opener against Minnesota (only 23 points on 5.2 yards per play), we’re getting a real bargain on this total. The Horned Frogs are capable of scoring quick strike, big play TD’s every time they have possession of the football. They had seven TD drives that lasted two minutes or less last week alone. When SMU faced Baylor two weeks ago, the Mustangs allowed four TD’s in the first quarter and eight for the game, allowing more than 700 yards of total offense on a whopping 10.5 yards per play. While first year head coach Chad Morris has made enormous strides with the SMU offense, this is a bottom tier stop unit that allowed more than 41 points per game last year, including a 56-0 loss to these same Horned Frogs. But SMU’s offense is as improved as any team in the country compared to last year. Coach Morris was the offensive coordinator for Clemson’s potent attack in recent seasons, and he’s got talent to work with in Dallas. QB Matt Davis was a Top 10 recruit coming out of high school, a transfer from Texas A&M with the ability to make plays with his feet as well as his arm; something the TCU defense hasn’t seen much of this year. 11 different receivers have already caught a pass from Davis, and Morris hasn’t been shy about taking big play shots down the field. TCU’s defense was a major question mark coming into the season, the only team in the country without a single start returning at linebacker. Then they lost arguably their best new starter for the season when Sammy Douglas got hurt. Fellow starting LB Mike Freeze took a personal leave of absence following Week 1. They just lost senior safety Kenny Iloka with a season ending injury last week. Pass rushing end Mike Tuana is hurt as well. Last year’s sack leader, James McFarland, just had surgery, out indefinitely. Coach Patterson: “Every week has to be a learning experience. We've can't just be getting ready for the team we're playing, but we also have to keep preparing for the season." Expect touchdowns in bunches! Take the Over. |
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09-19-15 | Colorado -3 v. Colorado State | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Colorado (#173) This is Year 3 of the Mike McIntyre era at Colorado. In three years of the McIntyre era at San Jose State, the almost always hapless Spartans improved from 1-12 to 5-7 to 11-2. He closed out his tenure in San Jose in the midst of a 21-6 ATS run, getting his team to dramatically overachieve compared to both their historical norms and their recent level of play. Quite simply, San Jose State got so much better so quickly that the betting markets really struggled to keep up. There are certainly signs of that level of improvement in Boulder this season. And Colorado continues to be mispriced in the betting markets following their opening night SU loss at Hawaii. My clients and I cashed with Hawaii in that game, noting all of the key situational issues for the Buffaloes in that contest, including the fact that the game didn’t even start until midnight on the kid’s body clocks. Hawaii was competitive at Ohio State for three quarters last week, making Colorado’s Week 1 loss look even better in retrospect. Last week’s bounceback win for Colorado speaks volumes about what this team is capable of. They shut down the Minutemen’s prolific passing attack for extended stretches, and held UMass without a point for the final 40 minutes of game action against a senior QB who had hung 38 points on this stop unit the previous year. Jim Leavitt’s line absolutely controlled the trenches, and their back seven shut down a strong passing game. Meanwhile, the Buffaloes offense grounded out 32 first downs, 557 total yards (including 390 on the ground!) and eight scores on their first nine drives before McIntyre emptied the bench. Colorado is in revenge for an ugly two TD opening day loss to the Rams last year. Colorado State dominated the line of scrimmage, rushing for 266 yards and controlling the game flow throughout the second half. But the Rams offensive line isn’t as good this year. Sophomore QB Nick Stevens, in his third career start, is a huge drop-off from Garrett Grayson, who finished #5 in the nation in passing efficiency and is now on the Saints NFL roster. Rams top receiver Rashard Higgins has a bum ankle, no sure thing to be anywhere near 100% if he suits up at all. An offense that produced only 314 yards on 4.3 yards per play against Minnesota last week isn’t primed to light up the scoreboard here either, especially with first year, first time head coach Mike Bobo expected to play QB shuffle again this week, with frosh Coleman Key also expected to get playing time behind center. It’s surely worth noting that the Rams have committed nine turnovers in two games with their new quarterbacks, while Colorado’s defense has forced at least two takeaways in each game McIntyre, talking about the positive effect of last week’s win: “You can tell them all you want. Until they truly see it and do it and believe it and reinforce it does it take root. And I believe it’s definitely taken root……It validates it to the players. I kept telling them they need to show themselves. I know what I’ve been saying. I know the culture change and a lot of the things that are going on daily that I see. I’ve seen it progress. They needed to show themselves. I definitely believe a lot of them showed themselves and they now believe more and more.” There’s a class difference and a legitimate motivational edge for the Buffs, neither of which is properly accounted for in this pointspread. VERY cheap price to lay with the superior team. Big Ticket: Take Colorado. |
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09-19-15 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame +3 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Notre Dame (#160) This game combines several of my favorite early season betting angles all rolled up into one play. Let’s start with angle #1; betting against a team that has looked great against patsies, now facing a step up in class on the road. Georgia Tech was a nine point underdog in the preseason GOY lines at the Westgate Superbook here in Vegas. But the Yellow Jackets have destroyed two weaklings at home, looking dominant in the process. Paul Johnson’s offense hasn't had a three-and-out yet this season and they are a perfect 12-12 scoring touchdowns in the red zone. But that was against Alcorn State and Tulane. This is a pretty big ‘step-up-in-class’ compared to those two squads. Georgia Tech is, quite simply, an overvalued commodity here. Angle #2? I have no hesitation supporting a team who just lost their starting quarterback if the backup is capable. Markets almost ALWAYS over-react to high profile quarterback injuries, like the season ender that Malik Zaire suffered last week. Think back to our winning bets supporting Ohio State in the BCS Bowl games last year for two prime examples. Last week’s winner with BYU against Boise is another prime recent example. Make no mistake about it – Irish backup QB DeShone Kizer can play. He led the team to a come-from-behind win at Virginia last week. And with a full week of practice behind the loaded Notre Dame offensive line (233 rushing yards per game against Texas and Virginia, only three sacks allowed), Brian Kelly didn’t sound too worried here: “He's going to be a first-time starter so we have to prepare for what that might entail. He's going to get a lot of ‘first times.' We have to keep in him in a situation where he can deal with those ‘first times. We can't get complicated, but we have to be able to score points against a prolific offense like Georgia Tech. It's kind of one of those things where we can't handcuff him. We can't baby him. We have to let him play." And then there’s Angle #3, teams that are prepared for the triple option. Not many squads run the triple option offense in college football in the modern era. Teams that don’t often face opposing options can get gashed repeatedly – it’s difficult to prepare a team with just one weeks’ worth of practice time defending it. But Notre Dame plays Navy, a triple option team, every year. This year, with two option teams on their schedule, they practiced defending it all summer. Assistant coach Bob Elliott was assigned, full time to working on schemes to stop the option. Kelly, talking about his assistant’s job for the last six months: “Talking to other teams and other coaches. Just putting more information together and looking at the things that we do and what other schools do, and coming up with a plan.” Expect the extra practice time that Notre Dame has spent defending this offense to pay real dividends on Saturday. Take Notre Dame. |
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09-19-15 | Tulsa +30.5 v. Oklahoma | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Tulsa (#131) This is the mother of all flat spots for Oklahoma, making the Sooners an easy fade in this inflated pointspread range. Oklahoma annihilated Tulsa 52-7 last year. It was just as easy the previous season; a 51-20 throttling. An opening day battle with Tulsa in 2011 resulted in a 47-14 Sooner victory. Oklahoma is not going to get ‘up’ for playing Tulsa, nor should they. And with a bye on deck prior to their Big 12 opener against West Virginia, I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest to see Bob Stoops squad flat as a pancake for extended stretches here. Stoops himself is part of the problem, calling last week’s wild, come-from-behind double OT win at Tennessee one of the most satisfying victories of his career. Read between the lines and you’ll get what I got – this team is ‘fat and happy’; not focused and hungry. Throw in an early 11 AM local start time for a squad that has struggled in both games to get untracked early and you can see the potential for a rather sluggish performance from this 30+ point home favorite. While Oklahoma is a clear ‘bet-against’ this week in this spread range, Tulsa has all the makings of a ‘bet-on’ team here in 2015 – there’s as much ‘bet-on’ for the Hurricanes as there is ‘bet-against’ for the Sooners here. Tulsa underachieved dramatically with their 5-19 SU mark in the final two years of the Bill Blankenship era; a team that quit on their coach and their season in 2014. Here in 2015, under Philip Montgomery, the Hurricanes are 2-0 SU already and primed for pointspread success moving forward. Tulsa can score, giving them life in this ‘big underdog’ pointspread range. Senior QB Dane Evans has 19 previous career starts under his belt, and he’s thrown for nearly 750 yards in Tulsa’s first two games. WR’s Keyarris Garrett and Keevan Lucas are legitimate playmakers, while RB’s Zack Langer and D’Angelo Brewer provide needed balance with their ground game. Coach Montgomery was the offensive coordinator at Baylor in recent seasons; a guy who knows how to design and execute a gameplan against the Sooners stop unit – the Bears scored 34, 41 and 48 while going 3-0 ATS against Oklahoma the last three years. Montgomery’s quote speaks volumes about the ‘little brother’s’ expected intensity on Saturday. “You know, we're fighting for respect in a lot of different areas. We're fighting for respect across the country. We're fighting for respect within our own conference and we're fighting for respect in our own state. So anytime we got a chance to go out and try to prove ourselves we're going to take that opportunity and get after it.” Expect a far more competitive contest than the pointspread would indicate…. Take Tulsa. |
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09-18-15 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 14-0 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
Take Florida State - Boston College OVER (#105-106). This total has crashed from the opener of 53, giving us legitimate value to support the Over on Friday Night as the Eagles and Seminoles battle in Chestnut Hill. Florida State is coming off a sluggish effort against a stout USF defense after their 636 yard, 59 point performance in their opener. Everett Golson started 1-9 for six yards in the first half last week, but he went 13-17 for 157 yards and a TD after halftime, making the appropriate adjustments. And with RB Dalvin Cook coming off a 266 yard, three TD effort, we know that this offense is balanced. It’s worth noting that Jimbo Fisher was quoted this week saying that he’s looking to get off to a “quick start in the passing game.” His quote on Golson’s effort last week is certainly a positive one: "I think it's both his maturity, being able to relax at halftime, go back to his fundamentals, make good reads, and make quick passes. From the first half to second Everett looked like two different people." The Seminoles have hung 38+ on the Eagles in three of the last four meetings between these two teams, and I expect Florida State to approach or exceed that number on Friday Night. BC has some stellar looking defensive numbers through the first two weeks of the season’ at least part of the reason why this total crashed in early betting. BC allowed 91 yards to Maine, just 1.9 yard per play, then held Howard to a grand total of 11 yards last week. In the two games combined, the BC defense allowed just a single field goal. Florida State is not Maine or Howard, a pair of FCS schools. BC’s defensive numbers through two games are absolutely meaningless in my book, yet they’ve given us nearly a TD of extra value here! The Eagles allowed 30 at home on three different occasions last year – not an elite stop unit -- and their completely rebuilt secondary is highly vulnerable to any decent downfield passing game. Florida State, too, lost a bunch of defensive talent to graduation, including a pair of cornerbacks who left school early to get drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round, and a pair of second rounders from their defensive line. No surprise here if BC moves the ball effectively for extended stretches in this ballgame, helping it fly Over the total. Take the Over. |
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09-12-15 | Boise State v. BYU +3 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take BYU (#352) My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner with BYU last Saturday. The Cougs Hail Mary to win the game was the capper for our moneyline bet, but (barring a late pick six), they were going to cover the spread anyway. And I’m not convinced in the slightest that BYU has any business as a home underdog against Boise on Saturday Night, despite the injury to senior starting quarterback Taysom Hill. We’re seeing a classic market overreaction to the loss of the starter, giving us ample line value to support this live underdog in Big Ticket fashion. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up supporting Bronco Mendenhall’s squad. “Expect matchup problems against the Cougars big receiving corps. Mitch Matthews is 6-6, Terenn Houk is 6-5 and the third member of their starting cast is big play speedster Devon Blackmun, a transfer from Oregon. The Cougs offense has no shortage of quick strike potential. The Cougars are much bigger and more physical than the average college team, because so many of their players are older – they’ve got 14 guys that just returned from missions and rejoined the team.” One of those 14 guys is 22 year old redshirt frosh Tanner Mangum, who threw the game winning pass after Hill got hurt last week to the aforementioned Mitch Matthews. Mangum was a Top 10 QB recruit in the nation coming out of high school in 2012, not a second tier prospect. He’s at home, with a full week of acclimation time, running an offense that produced more than 500 yards against Nebraska. The markets have clearly overreacted to his presence – BYU was -2.5 on the lookahead lines from the Westgate Superbook this summer. And he’ll be facing a Boise team that looks legitimately down in Bryan Harsin’s second season on the job. BYU has given Boise problems of late. Last year’s game was a Boise blowout, but in 2013, on Boise’s last visit to Provo, the Cougars won 37-20. In 2012 – an eleven win season for Boise – the Broncos escaped with an ugly one point victory, failing to cover the spread in a game where they were held to a single touchdown. And given the current state of the Boise offense, it’s going to be difficult for the Broncos to trade points with anybody right now. Last week, Boise faced a Washington team with a completely rebuilt defensive front and linebacking corps after graduating seven defensive starters. Three of those starters were NFL draft choices; their replacements are not (yet). But sophomore quarterback Ryan Finley couldn’t take advantage, and his mediocre receiving corps had a noticeable absence of playmakers, leading to only 337 yards of total offense; only 4.7 yards per play. I’m not convinced in the slightest that their first road game will produce a better result. And Boise’s special teams meltdown against the Huskies is no sure thing to be fixed here. Wrong team favored! Big Ticket: Take BYU. |
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09-12-15 | Temple v. Cincinnati -6.5 | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#322) Temple is coming off the biggest win in the modern history of the program, ending a losing streak to their in-state major conference foe dating back to 1941 that encompassed an 0-38-1 streak against Penn State. Now the Owls have to regroup and focus on the task at hand – taking on the defending AAC champs on the road. And instead of getting to tee off against Christian Hackenberg and the dismal offensive line in front of him, this time, Temple has to take on one of the elite offenses in the country. Cinci certainly took notice of Temple’s success against the Nittany Lions last week, and the Bearcats also remember what happened when they faced Temple last year; a hard fought 14-6 win that was their single worst offensive showing of the season. Junior quarterback Gunner Kiel, a Notre Dame transfer and the former #1 QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, talking about that performance: “First off, I played awful. I played so bad, probably one of the worst games of my life. Nothing was clicking. I was young. I wasn’t seeing the defense they were in. I played awful. I played timid.” Cinci’s not primed to play timid here, viewing Temple as a prime competitor for the AAC title this year. And with their offensive weapons, the Owls are likely to have a very hard time matching up or trading points with the Bearcats. Kiel, following last week’s 52-10 win over Alabama A&M: “Especially with our running game, we’re a full offense now. Those running backs — man, they’re unbelievable.” Head coach Tommy Tuberville has a strong, veteran offensive line, the antithesis of what Temple exploited against Penn State last week. From a line value perspective, this one stands out. Cinci was a TD favorite at Temple last year; right now, they’re less than a TD favorite at home, despite the fact that these two teams aren’t very different from what they were in 2014. And while Temple hung 27 points on Penn State last week, they certainly weren’t sustaining long drives on a consistent basis, with marginal skill position talent surrounding QB PJ Walker. Look for the Bearcats to win this one by a TD or more. Take Cinci. |
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09-12-15 | Iowa -3 v. Iowa State | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#355) Last year, Iowa dominated Iowa State early, leading 14-3 at halftime in what looked to be a relatively easy victory over a Big 12 bottom feeder. But the Hawkeyes fell apart after halftime, eventually losing at home on a last second field goal to their in-state rivals. Sometimes, revenge is a meaningless concept, either fully factored into the line or a non-factor completely when it comes to the intensity of the game itself. That does not appear to be the case in this matchup, where the superior team comes in with a legitimate chip on their shoulders as clearly evidenced by these Hawkeye player quotes: Cornerback Greg Mabin: “Seeing those guys run over to our sideline and grab the trophy and celebrate with it, you don’t forget that. It wasn’t a good feeling at all. I don’t want to ever experience it again.” Quarterback CJ Beathard: “Once you’ve been around this game for a year or two, you understand how important it is to people. It’s a pretty spirited deal. Losing a game is never a good experience, but to lose it the way we lost that one, that hurts.” More Beathard, talking about this game as the opportunity to wipe away all of last year’s frustrations: “This is a new year and a new team, but it would be a good thing to move beyond some of the things that made last year as tough as it was. This is a chance to do that, a chance for this team to move forward….I’m excited about going over there. I’m embracing it all. I remember two years ago walking onto the field and the crowd was talking all kinds of stuff. I can’t repeat most of it, but it gets you going, gets you ready to play.” Tight end Henry Krieger Coble: “Any time you lose a game it’s awful. When you lose it to a rival, a game you led and let get away the way that one ended, you live with it every day. We can’t get that one back, but we can learn from it and make sure what happened that day doesn’t happen again.” Ok, the intensity factor is clearly in the Hawkeyes favor. What about the matchups? Iowa State was a two win team last year and they don’t look a whole lot better in 2015. The Cyclones suffered major graduation losses on the defensive side of the football; essentially competing with a brand new front seven. That’s bad news against Iowa’s big, physical front and their talented top running back LeShun Daniels, who should have big holes to run through all evening. Iowa’s defense has the potential to really dominate this year, particularly against the pass, where the Hawkeyes come into the season with a loaded, experienced secondary. Don’t be fooled by the final box score last week – until garbage time when Ferentz emptied the bench, the Hawkeyes were pitching a shutout and had only allowed 100 total yards. That doesn’t bode well for the Cyclones ‘come from behind’ chances if, as expected, the Hawkeyes are able to dominate the game on the ground early. The Cyclones only outgained FCS Northern Iowa by eight yards in their opener last week, gaining only 310 total yards for the game. Sam Richardson is a decent, experienced QB, but the skill position talent surrounding him is subpar, bad news in a short pointspread range like this one. Take Iowa. |
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09-12-15 | Kansas State v. Texas-San Antonio +17 | 30-3 | Loss | -106 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Texas San Antonio (#328) Every preseason prognostication that I read – and I read a bunch of them – had UTSA falling off a cliff this year. And it made perfect sense to predict that. This program didn’t exist until Larry Coker was hired in 2009. The original group of 18 recruits came in 2010, followed by a second group in 2011. That resulted in last year’s team graduating a whopping 36 seniors; the guys who built the program from scratch. Last year, this was one of the most experienced teams in college football. This year, they are one of the least. But UTSA showed us very clearly last week in their much closer than expected battle with Arizona that the Roadrunners have a lot more talent than they were given credit for from those preseason prognosticators. Senior CB Bennett Okotcha: “We moved up with guys that were recruited to play Division II and Division III. They were great guys and they played well for us, but now we’re recruiting D-1 athletes to come play D-1 football and they’re doing a great job. Our talent keeps getting better. Sometimes it’s good especially for young guys to come in and play with no expectations. I feel like we’re really talented and we’re going to shock a lot of people.” And make no mistake about it – this team underachieved last year following an eight win season in 2012 and a seven win year in 2013. Hence, the markets who dropped their power rating #’s on UTSA were dropping them from an already ‘too low’ number. Here’s a couple of key quotes about last year’s underachieving squad. Senior safety Mauricio Sanchez: “What made UTSA what it is today is playing with a chip on our shoulder. Thats what we did our first couple years. Then we got lax. The media’s giving us attention. We killed Houston, we think we’ve got it all figured out, then we get hit in the mouth.” Tight end David Morgan: “That was supposed to be our year. We were projected to do really well and a lot of guys kind of got complacent. There was some inner turmoil within the team and we were kind of handed those (accolades). I feel like now being projected last that’s how we’ve been in years past when we just went out and played.” RB Jarveon Williams, talking about this matchup with Kansas State: “As you know, we’ve come close to beating the power conferences, but we’ve never got over the hump. No one wants to play for moral victories. No one wants to play close or almost win. Like I said, we prepare to win every game. That’s what we expect. We don’t expect nothing less than that.” So, we’ve got an undervalued commodity catching big points at home in a game where they can be expected to ‘come to play’. What about K-State? This is certainly not one of Bill Snyder’s better teams since he returned to the sidelines in Manhattan. And even with a strong nine win team last year, the Wildcats didn’t win a single game on the road by more than four points all season. To make matters worse for the Wildcats road opener, they have a clear problem with their new starting quarterback. A four way competition in camp led to Jesse Ertz winning the job. But Ertz got hurt early against South Dakota last week, leaving the guy who DIDN”T win the job, Joe Hubener, behind center. He finished 9-18 for 147 yards, while scrambling out of the pocket for 38 more in a game where K-State managed only 332 total yards of offense. Those certainly aren’t elite numbers, and this will be his first road start. I’m not expecting him to lead the Wildcats to a blowout victory…..Take Texas San Antonio. |
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09-10-15 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky OVER 60.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Take Louisiana Tech – Western Kentucky OVER (#301-302) We’re getting a bargain price to play this game Over the total, in large part due to Western Kentucky’s offensive struggles in their opener last week at Vanderbilt. Yes, the Hilltoppers had a rough offensive game, punting on their first eight drives while finishing with only eleven first downs and 246 total yards. But a rough offensive season opener on the road against an SEC defense is not the same as a Week 2 matchup (with a full week of practice time after opening last Thursday) against a conference foe in a major revenge spot – Western Kentucky lost 59-10 in Ruston last year. Make no mistake about it – this Hilltoppers offense is just fine. They’ve got a sixth year senior in Brandon Doughty at quarterback, coming off a 4800 yard, 49 touchdown season in which he was named the Conference USA MVP, leading Western Kentucky to a 44 points per game average. Doughty’s quote: "(They) whooped us last year and embarrassed us." It’s surely worth noting that Doughty put up a 24-0 TD-INT ratio at home last year, leading Western Kentucky to at least 35 points in every home game. La Tech head coach Skip Holtz, talking about the Hilltoppers offensive prowess: “All their skill players are back. The majority of their offensive linemen are back, but the most important thing is their quarterback is back. He does an excellent job. ... He is on almost every watch list there is for a football player. He is certainly deserving of those credits because of the things he has accomplished and the type of player he is on the football field." It’s surely worth noting that La Tech suffered significant graduation losses on their front seven defensively. We can expect Louisiana Tech to be capable of trading touchdowns with Western Kentucky from start to finish. Even with most of their starters back, the Hilltoppers defense is certainly no elite unit, allowing 40 points per game in 2014. The Bulldogs have Florida transfer Jeff Driskel taking over at QB, the #1 overall QB recruit in the country coming out of high school. Driskel’s debut against FCS Southern was pretty darn good last week: 12-15 for 274 yards and four TD’s (he ran for a fifth) in a game where he and most of the starters were pulled before halftime. These are two top notches C-USA offenses led by top tier veteran QB’s. Expect touchdowns in bunches. Take the Over. |
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09-05-15 | UL-Lafayette v. Kentucky -17 | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 32 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Kentucky (#192) We’ve got a strong ‘bet-on’ team here in September facing off against a strong ‘bet-against’ squad. The pointspread is not indicative of the class difference between this SEC squad and this Sun Belt squad; a pair of programs headed in opposite directions right now. Let’s start with the case for betting against the Rajun’ Cajuns, a team that has gone 9-4 in each of head coach Mark Hudspeth’s first four years on the job, culminating in four straight New Orleans Bowl wins. First, even with Lafayette was good, they weren’t going on the road and hanging tough with Power 5 conference schools in early season play. Last year in non-conference play, they lost by 41 at Ole Miss and by 25 at Boise. In 2013, they lost by 20 at Arkansas and by 21 at Kansas State. In 2012, it was a 41 point loss at Oklahoma State, on the heels of their 27 point loss at Okie State the previous season. In 2010, they lost their opener at Georgia by 48. Hudspeth has used these non-conference step-up-in-class games for what they are – a chance for Lafayette to fund their athletic department with a fat paycheck for playing. These quotes from Hudspeth tell the story: “I don’t want our team to feel any pressure going into this game… I just want our guys to play hard, execute, take care of the football and follow our plan. If we do that, hopefully we can play well and make it competitive…..You know, everybody talks about signature wins (but) conference wins, to be honest with you, probably are more important when it’s all said and done.” Lafayette isn’t primed to win nine games again this year. They’re replacing a three year starter at quarterback and much of the skill position talent around him. Neither of the two QB’s fighting for the starting job in 2015 stood out in any way during camp. And they’ve brought in a new defensive coordinator, Charlie Harbison, installing new systems on that side of the football. That’s why this Hudspeth quote when asked if the Rajun Cajuns accomplished their goals in camp this summer stands out like a sore thumb: “You know, no, I really didn’t. Just for the fact that with the number of injuries that we had at the offensive line throughout camp and at the wide receiver position, we were really limited in the amount of time we could scrimmage live and tackle. We got a great 120-play scrimmage in the first scrimmage, and got a lot of good live work, a lot of good tackling in. After that, we were very limited and had to pick and choose our places to tackle live. Tackling in space and tackling live in a game is way different than doing the tackling drills against the scout guys and tackling bags. That’s my concern. How quick can we get ready for the speed of the game when you’re put in space in a one-on-one position to make an open-field tackle against a running back or receiver.” Meanwhile, Kentucky is now in Year 3 of the Mark Stoops era. They made a three win improvement last year and are primed to take the next step in 2015: earning bowl eligibility; something that makes games like this opener particularly important. Junior QB Patrick Towles is a stud, and there’s some elite level skill position talent (read: big play, quick strike touchdowns) surrounding him, as well as 95 career starts returning on the offensive line. As non-conference home favorites in the Stoops era, Kentucky is 5-0 SU and ATS; whipping the teams they are supposed to whip. And there’s one last key element in play here – the massive special teams differential between these two squads. Kentucky has a true playmaker to return punts and kicks, frosh speedster Sahiem King. Lafayette graduated their senior kicker and senior punter, leaving true frosh to make their first collegiate starts at both positions on Saturday. A cheap special teams TD (a Stoops specialty) would go a long way towards cashing this Big Ticket wager. Take Kentucky. |
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09-05-15 | BYU +7 v. Nebraska | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
Take BYU (#177) Nebraska makes a poor favorite for Mike Riley’s debut, and BYU, as a team, absolutely has their ears pinned back for this one, looking to make a real statement to open the season. The fact that we’re seeing the Cornhuskers favored by nearly a TD in what has the feel of a ‘pick ‘em’ type game leaves me very comfortable supporting the Cougars plus the points as kickoff approaches. Mike Riley’s teams at Oregon State were very consistent in one key facet – they got better as the season progressed. Or if we frame that another way, the Beavers consistently underachieved in September. Oregon State’s last cover as a favorite in Week 1 came back in 2007. In the last four years alone, the Beavers lost SU on opening day as 28 and 27 point favorites to Sacramento State and Eastern Washington, both FCS foes. And given the current state of the Nebraska program (mediocre, suffering at least four losses in every season for the last ten years) and the current re-shuffling of the roster with a new head coach (major question marks on both sides of the football), we can expect another slow start this year from Riley’s new team. Make no mistake about it – there are plenty of holes for the Huskers to fill. They’re installing a brand new offense, looking to play smashmouth, run first football from the get-go. This is not an elite level offensive line, and they’re replacing NFL bound Ameer Abdullah at running back. BYU’s defensive front is loaded, returning five of their top six linemen. I’m not expecting the Huskers to control the line of scrimmage. And while QB Tommy Armstrong is a dangerous runner out of the pocket, he only completed 53% of his passes as a returning starter last year, not exactly an elite downfield thrower. That’s good news for the Cougars rebuilt secondary; BYU’s biggest weakness on paper! Defensively, the Cornhuskers lost their best player to graduation on all three units (DL, LB’s and secondary); bad news for a mediocre stop unit from last year. Two defensive starters, including their top cornerback, have been suspended for Week 1. Expect matchup problems against the Cougars big receiving corps. Mitch Matthews is 6-6, Terenn Houk is 6-5 and the third member of their starting cast is big play speedster Devon Blackmun, a transfer from Oregon. With dual threat senior QB Taysom Hill back behind center, the Cougs offense has no shortage of quick strike potential. BYU is built to win games like this one. The Cougars are much bigger and more physical than the average college team, because so many of their players are older – they’ve got 14 guys that just returned from missions and rejoined the team. BYU won four road games last year including a blowout at Texas, part of their 2-0 SU and ATS start on the highway. Hill: “We've experienced this before, we've been on the road to big stadiums, we've played big teams and we've won on the road. We're going to go into the stadium and do it again.” DL Travis Tuiloma: “I don’t think noise or crowd should be an issue. It’s just like when we went into Texas (last season) — over 100,000 people. After that first play, you get your nerves calmed down and get ready to play the next play." But perhaps most important of all is the meaning that BYU has attached to this game. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall has seen the program slip of late, with only one season of more than eight wins in the last five years. BYU’s 2014 campaign ended in embarrassment – a big blown lead in a double OT loss to Memphis, followed by an on-field brawl that was VERY atypical of what BYU as a school stands for. This team comes into Lincoln with a real chip on their shoulder, something to prove – a legitimate statement game. Be sure to have at least a taste of the moneyline in your pocket, along with the ‘plus the points’ bet…… Take BYU. |
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09-05-15 | Stanford v. Northwestern OVER 47.5 | 6-16 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Northwestern – Stanford OVER (#171-172) The markets tend to think of Stanford as an Under team. After all the Cardinal went 10-2 to the Under during the regular season last year, including a 4-1 mark to the Under in games totaled at 49 or less. That came on the heels of a 7-1 run to the Under to close out the 2013 regular season and a 7-2 run to the Under to open the 2012 campaign. This is a team with a very low baseline totals rating heading into 2015; one of the lowest baseline totals in college football. But there’s something very different about the Cardinal in 2014, something they haven’t enjoyed since Andrew Luck left town. Stanford has a returning senior starter with a potential NFL future at quarterback. Kevin Hogan didn’t live up to expectations for most of the season last year, but he came on like a freight train down the stretch, completing 45 of 59 pass attempts in three games away from home (at Cal, at UCLA and the bowl game against Maryland). Stanford scored 38, 31 and 45 in those three games; by far their highest three game output of the season. Now Hogan is back for his senior season, one of nine returning starters for the Stanford offense, including four returners on a loaded offensive line. That’s bad news for a Wildcats defense that repeatedly struggled against the better passing attacks they faced last year. And with Christian McCaffery capable of taking any carry to the house, the Wildcats defense will be tested by Stanford’s balance. The Cardinal defense has been the strength of the team throughout the entirety of the David Shaw era (since Luck went to the NFL). That does not appear to be the case in 2015. Stanford graduated their entire starting defensive line and a good portion of their secondary, losing a second rounder, two third rounders and a fifth rounder to the NFL draft. Shaw listed only five players on their ‘two-deep’ on the defensive line, indicating a severe lack of depth. They’re also breaking in a new kicker and a new punter – a special teams miscue (or two) could go a long way towards cashing this Over ticket. Northwestern’s redshirt frosh QB starter Clayton Thorson, one of the Top 20 QB recruits in the country coming off an impressive camp. They’ve also got big play gamebreakers at RB (Justin Jackson) and WR (Miles Shuler & Christian Jones), working behind a rock solid offensive line, capable of controlling the line of scrimmage against Stanford’s rebuilt front. It’s surely worth noting that like Stanford, Northwestern’s full season numbers from last year don’t tell the true story. A Wildcats team that was held below 30 points in each of their first nine games produced 33+ in each of their last three contests, games that flew Over the total by a combined 58.5 points. On a sunny day on the north side of Chicago, look for a relatively high scoring affair. Take the Over. |
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09-04-15 | Colorado v. Hawaii +7.5 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 35 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Hawaii (#150) I’m well aware that Colorado is primed to be better this year compared to the first two years of the Mike McIntyre era. In Year 1, the 4-8 Buffs were largely non-competitive, losing seven times by 18 points or more. Last year, Colorado dropped to 2-10, but their losses were much closer, including four defeats by five points or less. Many observers expect the Buffs to take a strong step forward here in 2015, and I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if Colorado emerges as a bowl eligible team by the time December rolls around. But the Buffs are in for a real battle in Hawaii on Thursday Night, a game that STARTS at midnight in Boulder, primed to end hours after every Colorado player and coach is normally sleeping. The betting markets certainly aren’t sleeping on the Buffaloes expected improvement – hence this pointspread, with the Buffs currently laying more than a touchdown. This is a Colorado team that is 3-35 SU on the road since 2008, including a 1-9 SU mark in the first two years of the Mike MacIntyre era. That win? A three point victory in their road opener at UMass last year. UMass finished the season 3-9. Colorado was -18.5 in that game and they never even sniffed a pointspread cover. I’m not convinced the Buffs are going to sniff a pointspread cover here either. Colorado is primed to be better, yes, but Hawaii is primed to be much, much better, a team that has all the makings of a ‘bet-on’ squad heading into 2015. Last year’s team was riddled with injuries and they never found a good quarterback for Norm Chow to work with. This year, they have that quarterback; USC transfer Max Wittig a senior with an NFL caliber arm. Chow, talking about his new QB in practice: “(He) ripped us (the defense) every day. He made some very ordinary walk-on receivers look pretty good." Hawaii has new coordinators on both sides of the football, leaving Colorado’s coaching staff with precious little film to watch – Chow and his staff are going to unveil a handful of tricky wrinkles for the Buffs to deal with. MacIntyre: “You’re watching film from all their other schools. I would say this is the most (unknown) opponent we’ll play.” Hawaii has a strong track record of giving Power 5 conference foes fits when they travel to Honolulu. Last year, the Warriors were 17 point home dogs against Washington in their season opener, but they nearly pulled off the upset, losing by a single point. That marked the fifth consecutive year that Hawaii covered in their opener, all against PAC-12 foes. That’s a trend worth riding again here, with a taste of the moneyline a worthy investment along with the straight bet on the Warriors plus the points. Take Hawaii. |
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09-03-15 | TCU v. Minnesota +17 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#142) TCU has gotten an extraordinary amount of hype coming into the 2015 campaign. Yes, the Horned Frogs are very good. No, the Horned Frogs are not the second best team in the country. In fact, when you grade out TCU’s personnel based on recruiting rankings over the last five years, they’re barely in the top half of the ten team Big 12 Conference. Now recruiting rankings are not necessarily accurate predictors of future success, but the true upper echelon teams in college football get the best athletes, year after year. TCU does not. They are getting all the hype and all the preseason votes in the polls because of what they did last year; a year where, quite literally, everything that could go right did go right for Gary Patterson’s squad. TCU is a team that went 6-12 in Big 12 play in the two seasons prior to last year, not exactly on the cusp of greatness. Last year, they were lucky to beat Oklahoma, needing a pick six and a late fourth down stuff to come away with a four point home win. They blew a three TD lead and lost at Baylor. On the road, they escaped with a one point win on a last second field goal at mediocre 7-6 West Virginia. Against hapless 3-9 Kansas, they needed to rally from behind in the second half to escape with a four point win. And, of course, in their bowl game, they routed a dispirited Ole Miss squad still reeling from their late season collapse, making TCU look better than they actually were. TCU was a very good team, but they were a long way from being a truly great team, which is where they are being priced to open the 2015 campaign. To put this pointspread in perspective, the eventual national champs, Ohio State, was a 12.5 point favorite here at TCF Bank Stadium last November. The Buckeyes won by only a TD in a hotly contested game. Now TCU is laying more than that, against a Minnesota team that has absolutely thrived in this particular role throughout the Jerry Kill era – the big underdog. Kill has been a double digit dog ten times since the start of the 2013 campaign, and the Golden Gophers are 8-2 ATS in those games. One of the two losses came at TCU last year, but don’t be fooled by the result – Minnesota was riddled with injuries, particularly on the offensive line, and used that game against TCU to try to get their offensive line healthy again. That OL is healthy coming into the new campaign, as is returning junior quarterback Mitch Leidner, primed for a better showing after his ‘run for your life’ three INT performance behind that backup OL last year. Bottom line: this team is no pushover, and the Big 10 is no joke. I’m not calling for the outright upset – in this spread range, taking the points makes the most sense – but you might want to have a taste of the Gophers on the moneyline for this one….. Take Minnesota. |
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12-29-14 | Texas +7 v. Arkansas | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket Bowl Game of the Year: Take Texas (#241) The last two times Texas head coach Charlie Strong had extra time to prepare for a bowl game, his Louisville teams pulled an outright upset over Florida as 14 point underdogs and blew out Miami 36-9 as short favorites. Off a bye this year with the Longhorns, Strong’s defense pulled a shutout on the road at Kansas. With extra time to prepare for their opener, Texas blew out North Texas 38-7. Clearly, Strong’s teams are tough to beat (and tough to score on) with extra preparation time. In Brett Bielema’s seven years at Wisconsin, he coached the Badgers in six bowl games. Wisconsin lost four of those games in outright fashion, and the two wins came by three and six points. That’s certainly not the type of track record I’m looking for out of my bowl favorites! Texas finished with a very mediocre 6-6 record this year. They lost two key games in which they outplayed their top notch opponent for extended stretches, losing by five to Oklahoma (as 17 point underdogs) and by three to UCLA (as 8.5 point dogs). They were underdogs to West Virginia, but managed to win the game by three scores. This team proved more than once that they are capable of stepping up in class, even in hostile or neutral environments. But Texas got smacked in the face by a particularly motivated and talented TCU team in their regular season finale, a truly ugly 48-10 defeat. That loss, in particular, has given this team a boatload of motivation to close out their season strong on Monday Night. Offensive guard Derick Flowers: “Coming off the loss we had against TCU, we had a bitter taste in our mouth. We’re just ready to go out there and compete and show what we’ve got, show that our team isn’t weak or lower than any other team that’s going to go out there. We’ll compete and give it all we’ve got.” Wide receiver John Harris: “We just want to go out and finish the right way. That’s the goal and that’s the mindset. We didn’t get to finish our senior night the way we wanted to, so we want to leave out of here the right way and leave Coach Strong on a good note.” Linebacker Jordan Hicks: ““Yeah it was definitely not good (the loss to TCU). It left a bad taste in our mouth, for sure, but for us, we understand what we have ahead and we’ve got one more game to prove ourselves.” Coach Strong, last week: “It’s about guys that just want it. It’s about your preparation, but then it comes down to just how bad guys can go out and practice and how important it is to them. Right now our attitude is pretty good. You can tell in the first few days whether they’re going to want to go to a bowl game or just go through the motions.” Make no mistake about it – Texas improved by leaps and bounds throughout the course of this season. They lost their senior starter at QB when David Ash got hurt, forcing untested Tyrone Swoops into action. Swoopes struggled early, but the Longhorns offense improved by more than 70 yards per game over the back half of their campaign. A top 10 QB prospect out of high school, this extra prep time is HUGE for the talented sophomore signal caller. And this Longhorns defense is positively loaded, the strength of the team all year. Texas allowed less than one passing touchdown per game, while shutting down multiple ‘high octane’ offenses in the process. That’s particularly bad news for Arkansas, because the Razorbacks offense isn’t very good. This team was a great pointspread underdog against SEC competition, but that doesn’t make them worthy of ‘favorite of nearly a TD’ status here in the Texas Bowl. Their two signature wins this year – back-2-back shutouts against LSU and Ole Miss – both came at home. Arkansas didn’t move the football effectively in either contest; but a +6 turnover edge in those two games made all the difference in the final score. I wouldn’t count on the Razorbacks winning the turnover battle by margin in this one. If you’re looking for a signature win from Arkansas away from home this year, you’re not going to find one. With a chance to make some noise in their season finale, coming off those two marquee shutout wins, they took a 14-3 lead at SEC East champ Missouri midway through the second quarter. They didn’t score another point, losing to a mediocre Tigers squad. Hogs QB Brandon Allen managed all of 133 passing yards on his 30 attempts against a stop unit that is no better than that of the Longhorns. Unlike Swoopes, Allen doesn’t even have playmaker potential. If Arkansas can’t run, they can’t win, and I’m not expecting them to be able to pound the ball on the ground against this stout ‘something to prove’ Longhorns D. Texas will enjoy ample crowd support in this friendly venue. I think they are the better of the two teams, and I expect them to win this game in outright fashion – be sure to put at least a taste of the moneyline in your pocket, as well as the generous points the betting markets have gifted us! Big Ticket: Take Texas. |
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12-20-14 | Utah -3 v. Colorado State | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 69 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah (# 205) Now that the Utes have been bet down to -3 from an opener of -4.5 or -5, it’s time to step in and support the superior team with the superior focus on the task at hand. I can understand the money that’s been flowing in against Utah – their statistical profile does not impress. But Utah brings far more to the table than their stats suggest, while Colorado State brings less. And the player quotes are a big part of that story. Utah senior safety Brian Blechen: “Going to Vegas, that’s even better. Vegas is a super fun place to have a bowl game. All the events for the bowl are fun. The team is excited.” QB Travis Wilson, who got better and better as the season progressed: “It’s great having a place that’s close where our fans can come down to the game as well. So I’m really happy that we landed the Vegas Bowl and I’m just ready to go out there and start.” Contrast those quotes with what we’re getting from the Rams. Colorado State junior linebacker SteveO Michael: "I mean, at the end of the day, we deserve this. At the same time we want to have fun. When we go to practice, we flip the switch and we give two hours a day to study film. At the same time, you want to have fun. You've got to be able to flip the switch, which I believe we'll be able to do. When it's time to have fun at the bowl, be it activities with the other team or the gift suite, we're going to have fun." The Utes, a perennial bowl team, have not been bowling since 2011 – this is a ‘big deal’ game for their kids. Colorado State, on the other hand, beat PAC-12 foe Washington St in their bowl game last year (thanks to Mike Leach idiocy, more than any other factor); not quite as hungry as the Utah team for this one. And it’s surely worth noting that the Utes nationally ranked basketball team will be playing here in Vegas on Saturday Night. Basketball head coach Larry Krystkowiak: “It’s going to be a great opportunity for Utah fans — for sure.” There’s a leadership crisis for the Colorado State program now that head coach Jim McElwain has departed for the Florida job. Offensive coordinator Doug Baldwin will be the interim head coach for this bowl game. Baldwin is one of three guys on staff who are being considered for the head coaching job moving forward (Defensive coordinator Marty English and legendary head coach Sonny Lubeck’s son, a positional coach, have also been interviewed). There are also numerous ‘outside’ candidates for this ‘still open’ job. Talk about an awkward coaching situation! That makes this quote from WR Rashard Higgins stand out even more: "(Baldwin is) just telling us to keep our heads on straight, finish good through finals and don't go down to Las Vegas like a chicken with our head cut off. Just go down there with a mindset that, man, we've got another ballgame and it's not time for fun and games.” Reading between the lines, Baldwin knows that focus is going to be a problem for his kids. I’m expecting the Rams to spend a bit too much time on fun and games, in contrast to the Utes who have three practices scheduled for Vegas and an experienced head coach in Kyle Whiitingham. Whittingham has guided the Utes to six bowl wins in seven tries, including outright upsets over the likes of Alabama, Georgia Tech and Cal. And, nothing against Colorado State, but I trust the kids from Utah to keep their head on straight here in Vegas and not “go down to Las Vegas like a chicken with our head cut off.” Let’s not forget the fact that Utah has the better team! Colorado State didn’t exactly face a brutal slate of foes this year. Their signature wins – all in tight, one score ‘coin flip’ type games -- came against Boston College, Nevada and Utah State; not exactly a who’s who of elites. Utah, on the other hand, beat the likes of UCLA, USC and Stanford, among others. The Utes have a HUGE edge on special teams and their fierce pass rush can be expected to wreak havoc on Garrett Grayson and the Rams passing game. I’m not expecting this one to be close….. Big Ticket: Take Utah. |
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12-06-14 | Florida State -4 v. Georgia Tech | 37-35 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Florida State (#125) The betting markets have downgraded Florida State so much that there is massive value to support the team with the longest current winning streak in the country (by a wide margin) in a game where a straight up win is very likely to produce a pointspread cover. Here in Las Vegas, sharp $$ has poured in AGAINST Florida State just about every week this year. Offshore, there’s been even more active trading against the Seminoles, and the sportsbooks have lost a small fortune to the wiseguys on this one team all year. Florida State has been a moneyburner all year, despite the flood of $$ coming against them, notching only three pointspread covers compared to nine ATS losses. Even those three covers (Wake Forest, Louisville and Miami) weren’t ‘clean’ performances. FSU had to rally from multiple score deficits in the latter two games and they led Wake 6-3 at halftime before a second half explosion. So here’s a team that hasn’t lost a game in two years. They’ve looked bored for extended stretches this year, waiting for a challenge to spark them. Coming into the season, they were projected to be as talented as Alabama, with multiple future NFL draft choices on both sides of the football. And yet all of this anti- Florida State $4 has been cashing, again and again, essentially ‘warping’ the betting markets to the point that many handicappers that I know here in Vegas don’t even have FSU in their Top 10. I’m not buying that. Florida State is elite. They’re playing a meaningful game after a season filled with laughingstocks. And however you want to look at Georgia Tech’s late season run (5-0 SU and ATS), whether it’s been ‘lucky’ (it has) or ‘good ‘(it has too), Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets are not an elite team. Let’s put this pointspread in perspective. Georgia Tech opened up as a two TD underdog against Georgia LAST WEEK. Even if we factor in four full points for the game being played between the hedges, that still projects to a line of Georgia -6 vs. Florida State here, a line that looks as silly on paper as it would in reality. The markets are off here, plain and simple. Two more factors work in FSU’s favor. Georgia Tech just lost their WR playmaker DeAndre Smelter with a season ending ACL tear. Smelter is in the mode of previous Yellow Jacket receivers like NFL stars Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas, averaging 20 yards per catch this year. Without him, there’s no deep threat to make their triple option offense more effective. And Georgia Tech’s triple option is tough for most defensive coordinators to decipher with only a week to prepare. Not in this case, though! The Seminoles DC in 2014 is none other than Charles Kelly, who spent seven years as a DB coach and a coordinator under Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. The Ramblin’ Wreck are simply outmanned and outclassed in this one! Take Florida State. |
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12-06-14 | Oklahoma State +21 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State (#119) Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy cost us a bet last month when he surprisingly pulled the redshirt off QB Mason Rudolph with only two games remaining in the season. Rudolph was their heralded recruit, a Top 20 QB coming out of high school and a HUGE upgrade over backup Daxx Gorman who has been starting since Week 2 following the season ending injury to junior JT Walsh. The Cowboys season long stats are going to show that they can’t throw the football very well and have a very limited offense. But if you watched Rudolph’s first collegiate start, in the rain, in a very hostile environment at Baylor, you saw a young QB that has the ‘it’ factor. He averaged more than 11 yards per pass attempt against a top notch defense. The postgame quotes from that contest tell the story of a QB worth supporting here, especially now that he’s had two full weeks to practice with the first stringers prior to this Bedlam game. WR David Glidden: “I thought he did a great job staying level-headed. That’s something you need at the quarterback position. Give Mason props. You always want a leader and a guy who’s going to be composed. RB Desmond Roland: “I think he did an excellent job. He didn’t seem nervous. He was being vocal out there. He was being a leader.” Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State by nine in Stillwater last year, costing the Cowboys the Big 12 title; a loss that truly stung. That game marked the third time in the last four meetings between these two teams that the game was decided by a single digit margin. The fourth meeting was an Oklahoma City blowout. So it’s certainly not a situation where the Sooners have been the dominant team in this series, winning by margin year after year. In fact, the opposite is true, giving us a case here where the Cowboys, despite their current five game losing streak and mediocre season long stats are primed to give the Sooners a battle, wire-2 –wire. What makes this game Big Ticket worthy is the fact that Oklahoma isn’t all that good or particularly healthy themselves. Bob Stoops has only guided his team to two wins by this sort of margin in Big 12 play, against the two worst teams (Kansas and Iowa State). Oklahoma is playing without their own starting QB, with Cody Thomas (1 TD, 4 INT’s & 41% completions in limited action this year) replacing Trevor Knight. Throw in a handful of key injuries in the secondary and the fact that the Sooners, once again, are playing for nothing but pride at the end of a disappointing, underachieving campaign and the case for this three TD underdog being ‘live’ on Saturday is perfectly clear. Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State. |
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12-05-14 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green OVER 61.5 | Top | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
Take Bowling Green – Northern Illinois OVER (#105-106) When these same two teams met in the MAC Championship Game last year, we saw a shootout with the two teams combining for 74 points. And there’s little reason to expect this year’s rematch to be significantly different. With the total deflated based on some misleading late season results, I have no hesitation pulling the trigger on an Over wager for Friday Night in the comfy indoor confines of Ford Field. Bowling Green plays fast, one of the more uptempo teams in the country. But the Falcons clinched their division title early and took their collective feet off the gas pedal. They also faced bad weather in a pair of November games, further deflating their scoring total. But make no mistake about it – BG is going to run a ton of no-huddle, uptempo offense here because it’s their only recipe for success against the revenge minded Huskies. Northern Illinois took some time to find their quarterback this year, but once sophomore Drew Hare took control of the job and delivered a 15-1 TD-INT ratio while leading the team in rushing, the Huskies offense blossomed. Northern Illinois has a trio of tough RB’s including bulldozer Cam Stingley and speedy scatback Akeem Daniels, posing opposing defenses some very difficult matchups. Facing a BG defense that allowed 33 points per game and nearly five yards per rush attempt, look for the Huskies to have success on the ground throughout the course of this matchup. And in a game of this magnitude, I don’t expect either team to slough off with a lead – we’ll be seeing touchdowns start to finish in this one! Take the Over. |
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11-28-14 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Virginia (#315) There’s a world of difference in mentality between the 5-6 Cavaliers and the 5-6 Hokies as they face off for the Commonwealth Cup on Friday Night. Nothing Virginia Tech can do here will wipe off the stink of their miserable season. Instead of competing for an ACC title – something that looked quite possible following their early season upset at Ohio State – Frank Beamer’s squad is looking at a crappy minor bowl game IF they find a way to win this one. That’s not exactly huge motivation. And as we saw last week in their double overtime 6-3 loss to hapless Wake Forest, the Hokies certainly need some sort of motivation or they don’t show up. Virginia Tech has lost all three previous ACC home games on this field in outright fashion this year. They’ve only covered two pointspreads in nine games since beating the Buckeyes, a consistent money burner. And this offense just can’t move the football, plain and simple, lacking playmakers at RB or WR, without any level of consistent QB play and getting beaten at the line of scrimmage week after week. Virginia Tech is a dead nuts bet against here. Virginia, on the other hand, brings a ton of energy and motivation to the table this week. They’ve lost ten straight against Virginia Tech, the longest losing streak in the 95 year history of the series. The Cavs -- to a man -- absolutely love head coach Mike London, and they know full well that London’s tenuous job security could depend on a win here getting them to 6-6 and bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. And fresh off last week’s confidence inducing rout of Miami, the Cavaliers are on a bit of an uptick right here, undervalued in the betting markets. The Cavaliers have outgained the likes of BYU and Duke on the road this year. They’ve beaten bowl teams like Miami, Pitt and Louisville, capable of stepping up in class. Virginia’s defense has the potential to keep Virginia Tech out of the end zone again this week, just like Wake kept them out of the end zone last week . And the Cavs offense has hung 50 against Florida State and Miami in their last two games, not a hapless unit by any stretch of the imagination. Expect the huge motivational edge for the visitors makes a difference here. Take Virginia. |
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11-28-14 | Nebraska v. Iowa | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Iowa (#328) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ Big Ticket winner betting against Nebraska last week, when they lost outright at home as double digit favorites against Minnesota. And there was nothing fluky about that result. In fact, Nebraska got two huge breaks, blocking a field goal and returning it for a touchdown and not having to face the Gophers stellar running back David Cobb, who left in the first half with an injury. They still lost the game in outright fashion, in the midst of another late season collapse, just like they suffered last year. And the betting markets are waaaay behind the curve on this team right now, looking at season long numbers, not current form numbers. Since their last bye week, Bo Pelini’s squad has lost their last two games by an average of 26 points per game against the spread. Yikes! Here’s an excerpt from my anti-Huskers write-up from last week: “The Cornhuskers defense hasn't been able to stop power rushing offenses for years. Melvin Gordon setting the all time single game rushing record against this stop unit last week is the rule, not the exception. …And with RB Amer Abudullah banged up as we reach the home stretch of the campaign while QB Tommy Armstrong is struggling mightily (less than 50% completions in four of his last six games), the Huskers aren't likely to be able to trade points with many foes right now either. After beating up on a litany of Big 10 weaklings (Illinois, Northwestern, Rutgers and Purdue), Nebraska simply isn't capable of stepping up against stronger foes.” With the vultures circling around Bo Pelini, Nebraska simply isn’t that good and they certainly aren’t that confident as they head to Iowa City for their regular season finale. They’re banged up as well, probably without top WR Kenny Bell and key OL Mark Pelini. Amer Abudullah is hurting too: “I’ve been frustrated the last couple of weeks, not being totally healthy. All of the records and those things that I was working toward, they’re gone.” Nebraska lost at home 38-17 to Iowa last year and I’m not convinced this season finale is going to produce a dramatically different result. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz went on record this week talking about how he likes the short week of prep time before playing Nebraska – the better coach has the edge in these situations. "Early in the season you need nine days between games to get ready for the next one, but we don't get that time. At this time of year, the turnaround is doable if you do things efficiently. Then you get to sit back on Saturday, put your feet up and watch everybody else sweat. It's not a bad deal." At a pick ‘em price, the Hawkeyes are a good deal in early start action on Black Friday. Big Ticket: Take Iowa. |
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11-22-14 | Minnesota +10 v. Nebraska | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota (#135) |
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11-15-14 | Texas State v. South Alabama -4 | 20-24 | Push | 0 | 32 h 46 m | Show | |
Take South Alabama (#348) Georgia Southern, despite their perfect 7-0 mark in conference play, is ineligible to go bowling this year. Conference leaders Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State are likely to nab two of the three Sun Belt bowl tie in’s. That leaves the winner of this South Alabama – Texas State game (both teams 5-4 right now and one game over .500 in conference) as the prohibitive favorite to snag that last guaranteed Sun Belt Bowl berth. This is a HUGE game, by Sun Belt standards, because neither squad has ever been bowling before; both recent entrants to FBS status. The Jaguars are coming off back-2-back losses on the road against the two Sun Belt elites (Lafayette & Arkansas State). This is their final Sun Belt game of the season. They are in revenge for a tough two point loss to Texas State last year; a loss that kept them out a bowl game. South Alabama center Joe Scelfo: “If we don't win we don't go to a bowl game. This is huge. Last year they took it away from us, so this year we're going to take it away from them and get in a bowl game. It's crucial. We need this sixth win.'' Nose tackle Jesse Kelley: “Their quarterback is throwing the ball a little more this year, but I expect that if we stop their run game we'll win. The sense of urgency is real high, real high, this week…….Right now, folks have been saying all week, really it started Sunday, this is our Super Bowl,' Kelley said. If we don't win this game, we're not going to a bowl game. If we win the game, we're going to a bowl game. It's that simple.” The Jaguars get their starting QB back in the lineup this week, with Brandon Bridge expected to suit up after sitting out last week’s game. Their defense is as good as any in the conference; another unit that got healthier this past week with the return of star LB Maleki Harris. Texas State hasn’t come close to beating a team of this caliber all year, with their five wins coming against the likes of Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Tulsa, Idaho, Louisiana-Monroe and New Mexico State – a FCS school and four teams that have three wins or less this year. I’m not anticipating a strong ‘step-up-in-class’ performance from this road underdog against an opponent that is better than they are on both sides of the football. Take South Alabama. |
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11-15-14 | Missouri v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#388) Missouri is getting waaaaaaay too much betting market respect in this matchup. After winning the SEC East last year, the Tigers were expected to drop off significantly in 2014. Money poured in against Gary Pinkel’s squad in most of their early season games, but blowout wins over UCF and Toledo ended their market disrespect. Then Missou found ways to win some games in very misleading fashion, like their come-from-behind win in the fourth quarter at South Carolina (the Tigers had been held to a single TD against that shoddy defense) and their blowout over Florida in a game where the offense was held under 120 total yards. Their last two games against the two worst teams in the conference – Vandy and Kentucky – both came at home, and neither was impressive in the slightest. Yet the markets are in love with Missouri this week, and that gives us a strong opportunity to step in and fade them! Let’s start with Missouri’s offense. QB Maty Mauk has been nothing short of awful for extended stretches this season. During the first three games of SEC play, Mauk completed only 27 of 73 passes for 249 yards no touchdowns and five interceptions. Against hapless Kentucky and Vandy he avoided the interceptions, but Missouri still didn’t have any semblance of a downfield passing game, barely completing half his throws while throwing for 164 and 141 yards. The Tigers lack a big, beefy running back – the guys that A&M has been struggling to stop this year. Missouri simply can’t trade points with any decent SEC offense, like the one they’ll face on Sunday. The headline from the local paper in Columbia earlier this week was “Tigers Head to A&M with Depleted Secondary.” Senior strong safety Braylon Webb, a three-year starter, won’t be available for the first half following his targeting ejection in his last game. And sophomore cornerback Aarion Penton is suspended after his arrest last week. That duo has been responsible for 70% of Missouri’s interceptions this season, arguably their top two defensive backs. Texas A&M is the #1 passing team in the SEC by a fairly wide margin. Malcome Kennedy, Ricky Seals-Jones) and Speedy Noil all rank in the Top 10 in receptions in the SEC, while Josh Reynolds ranks in the Top 10 in receiving yards; a loaded group of offensive weapons. With Kyle Allen (277 passing yards and 4 TD’s at Auburn last week) holding down the QB job for Kevin Sumlin, the Aggies are primed to approach or exceed the 41 points they scored on the road last week. There’s clearly some sentiment in the markets that A&M is primed for a ‘letdown’ following last week’s huge win, while Missouri is rested and ready off their bye. I’m not buying that argument one iota. The Aggies weren’t good enough to compete with Ole Miss, Alabama and Mississippi State, suffering three bad losses. And they weren’t exactly pumped up to play Louisiana-Monroe, escaping with a lethargic five point win as 33 point home favorites. But there’s been no hint of any negative talk in the Aggies locker room this week. In fact, off last week’s upset, now sitting at 7-3 for the campaign, the Aggies have new life, closing out the campaign with home games against Missouri and LSU. Following those well publicized October struggles, this is no ‘letdown’ spot, it’s a ‘step-up’ spot for an explosive offensive ballclub against a vastly overrated foe. Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M. |
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11-15-14 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -9 | 16-50 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#336) You can stick a fork in Kentucky, because they are done. The Wildcats really looked like they had turned the corner as a program in Mark Stoops second year at the helm, winning five of their first six games both SU and ATS. Then they started to step up in class at the exact same time that their depth issues came to the forefront. The result? Four consecutive losses by double digit margins. That includes an ugly rout at home against Georgia last week; the third time in their last four games that the Wildcats defense got gashed for more than 300 yards on the ground and more than 40 points on the scoreboard. Bye weeks matter for depth-shy teams like Kentucky. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, their last bye came in mid-September. This will be their eight consecutive game – seven of which have come against physical SEC competition – without a much needed bye. For a team that showed plenty of ‘quit’ in them last week as well as in a ‘step-up’ spot against LSU on the road, I’m not expecting an inspired, Grade A effort from this road underdog. While Kentucky is reeling, Tennessee has improved by leaps and bounds since September. In their last two games, we’ve seen Butch Jones’ team and his new starting QB Josh Dobbs (a Top 20 QB recruit nationally) have tremendous success. This offense gave Alabama fits after a slow start, and they blew past South Carolina in their last game, gaining more than 300 yards through the air and on the ground. Fresh and rested off their bye week, with the potential for a 3-0 finish and a return to their first bowl since 2010, there’s plenty of motivation for the better team in the much better spot. Weaker Vols teams than this one beat Kentucky by 13 in Lexington last year and by 20 in Knoxville the year before that. A similar result here would be no surprise for this bettor! Take Tennessee. |
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11-15-14 | Indiana v. Rutgers -7 | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Rutgers (#338) It’s not hard to make a case for betting against a ‘dead’ team like Indiana in this very reasonable pointspread range. Kevin Wilson is clearly on the hotseat even after the Hoosiers were able to pull off a shocking upset over Missouri earlier this year. Of course, the fact that that victory was sandwiched between losses to Bowling Green and Maryland didn’t help matters. But the bigger issue for Indiana right now is their offense. The Hoosiers D is, once again, a bottom tier unit, and this team was designed to outscore their foes, not them. But with cluster injuries at the all-important quarterback position, Indiana has been held to 17 points or less in each of their last three ballgames. That level of production isn’t likely to improve in this road tilt. QB Zander Diamont is only taking snaps behind center because every other serviceable QB on the roster is hurt or has quit. In three starts, Diamont has completed a grand total of 23 passes for 103 yards without a touchdown. He’s so bad that Wilson won’t even call pass plays for him when his team is trailing by margin – the Hoosiers have absolutely no ability to rally from behind. At 0-5 in Big 10 play, this team is a classic late season fade, just playing out the string. Rutgers, on the other hand, is a clear ‘bet-on’ team following their much needed bye week. The Scarlet Knights went 5-1 SU to open the season, but ran into a Big 10 gauntlet of Ohio State, Wisconsin and Nebraska over a three week span prior to the bye. The results were not pretty. But in their final home game, with a senior QB and a change to clinch bowl eligibility in their first season in the conference, I’m expecting a strong showing from Kyle Flood’s squad. Take Rutgers. |
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11-13-14 | Southern Miss +7.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Southern Miss (#313) 2-7 Texas San Antonio can’t be laying a touchdown to anybody right now. The Roadrunners offense is broken, managing just seven points in their last two games combined, against UTEP and Rice, not exactly elite defenses, even by Conference USA standards. Their top two quarterbacks are both hurt, leaving frosh Austin Robinson ( 1 TD, 3 INT’s, less than five yards per pass attempt) as Larry Coker’s only healthy option. For an offense that isn’t working, yet another QB change to the untested frosh is certainly not a ‘buy’ sign. UTSA is the most veteran team in the country with 36 seniors on the roster and 18 starters back from last year’s squad; a 7-5 team. These seniors weren’t allowed to play in a bowl last year, the Roadrunners first full season as an FCS squad. All the offseason focus this year from those veterans was getting to a bowl game. After knocking off Houston and nearly upsetting Arizona in their first two games, this squad expected a big year. That hasn’t happened. Instead, UTSA has lo st seven of their last eight, the lone victory coming by only a field goal against Florida International, a game where the Roadrunners never sniffed a pointspread cover as 9 point favorites. Last week’s loss – rested and ready coming off a bye – was the final nail in the coffin for any bowl hopes. WR Kam Jones: “It sucks. That was my goal, to go to a bowl game. It’s just a terrible feeling. I don’t want to talk about it, really.” Larry Coker’s quote about the Roadrunners significant injury concerns (above and beyond their QB problems) also speaks volumes: “I don’t really want to talk much about injuries.” This is a downtrodden team coming off a crushing defeat with nothing left to play for, and they’ve got to win the game by more than a TD to cover! That’s not my idea of a good bet! Southern Miss is expected to get their starting quarterback,, Nick Mullens, back in the lineup tonight. In Mullens last start my clients and I cashed in with the Golden Eagles SU win as an underdog in a similar pointspread range at North Texas. Prior to that, they covered in a six point loss at powerful Middle Tennessee. I’m expecting a competitive game here, start to finish. Take Southern Miss. |
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11-08-14 | Kansas State +6 v. TCU | 20-41 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Kansas State (#195) Some games need detailed write-ups. Some don’t. This is one of the latter variety. Here’s Bill Snyder’s track record as an underdog away from home since 2010: +6 at Baylor, K-State lost by 5, ATS W. +13 at Missouri, K State lost by 10, ATS W +13 at Miami-FL, K State won outright, ATS W +3.5 at Texas Tech, K- State won outright, ATS W +21 at Oklahoma State, K- State lost by 7, ATS W +8 at Texas, K-State won outright, ATS W +16 at Oklahoma, K State won outright, ATS W +2 at West Virginia, K- State won outright, ATS W +6 at Texas, K- State lost by ten, ATS L +13.5 at Oklahoma State, K State lost by 4, ATS W +2.5 at Texas Tech, K State won outright, ATS W +7 at Oklahoma, K- State won outright. Add it up and we’re talking about an 11-1 ATS run in this role over the last five years. With all due respect to TCU, Bill Snyder’s track record in this role is worthy of support whenever we get the opportunity to catch points with the Wildcats as road underdogs. Take Kansas State. |
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11-08-14 | UTEP +8 v. Western Kentucky | 27-35 | Push | 0 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
Take UTEP (#167) I’ll happily take the better defensive team needing just a single win to gain bowl eligibility as more than a TD underdog at Western Kentucky on Saturday. The Hilltoppers just got hammered at Louisiana Tech last week, losing 59-10 for their third loss in four games. The Western Kentucky defense has allowed fewer than 42 points only once in their last seven games. The only game that they didn’t allow 42+ came against Navy’s ‘slow the game down’ triple option. Navy QB Keenan Reynolds following that contest: “It's probably my worst game here. I missed a lot of guys when they were open.” In other words, it wasn’t anything that the Hilltoppers defense actually did right. UTEP has a solid stop unit. In their last two games, they shut down Southern Miss and Texas San Antonio; forcing seven turnovers while allowing less than 500 yards combined. We saw this team contain Texas Tech’s aerial attack, holding the Red Raiders to 30 points. We saw them contain Old Dominion’s powerful passing game as well, holding the Monarchs under 200 passing yards. ODU threw for 471 yards against the Hilltoppers the very next week. In fact, Western Kentucky hasn’t allowed less than 467 yards in any single game this year. Forget bowl eligibility or yards or points for that matter. Let’s look at where Western Kentucky is mentally right now; a team that absolutely quit on their coach and their teammates when facing adversity just last week. Jeff Brohm is a first year, first time head coach taking over following three straight winning seasons under two great coaches – Bobby Petrino and Willie Taggart. There’s been a ton of attrition within the program, and they’re sitting at 3-5 right now. I’m not seeing any kind of a ‘buy’ sign on the Hilltoppers from local news sources – in fact, the ‘read between the lines’ takeaway is that this team is in real trouble down the stretch. UTEP went through this last year, when Sean Kugler was in his firs season at the helm and the Miners went 2-10, losing by 30+ five times in their last six games. Now with Kugler’s systems and recruits firmly in place, the Miners are clearly on an uptick, reeking with confidence. Kugler: “We are getting ready to face in my mind the most explosive offensive team that we'll see all year. But I feel good about the way our defense is playing. I know they're going to be excited about that task." And I’m excited about this bet! Take UTEP. |
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11-08-14 | West Virginia v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas (#152) We’ve got a strong ‘bet against’ situation for West Virginia coupled with a ‘buy’ sign on Texas. Put those two factors together with the fact that Texas is catching a full field goal here in a game they should win and the case for the Longhorns as a Big Ticket selection becomes perfectly clear. The Mountaineers blew a fourth quarter lead last week against TCU and it wasn’t pretty; unable to execute on either side of the football when it mattered most – with the game on the line. They went ‘three-and-out’ on all three fourth quarter possessions while allowing the Horned Frogs to move down the field for two easy scores. It was a devastating defeat for a team that had won four straight since losing to Oklahoma back in September. Any outside dreams of a Big 12 title were quashed in that defeat, and the postgame mood in the locker room was particularly bleak. West Virginia suffered a comparable late season defeat last year to Texas in overtime. They followed that up with a no-show at 3-9 Kansas the following week; a team who’s collective ‘will’ had been broken. And with head coach Dana Holgorsen throwing his senior QB under the bus following the game: “Clint (Trickett) was incredibly uncomfortable, incredibly uncomfortable. Their rush was good. I’ll have to evaluate it to see if our pass protection was worth a damn, but he was uneasy in the pocket. He got spooked,” I’m not convinced the team chemistry is going to be any better following their latest devastating defeat. Let’s put this pointspread in perspective as well. Four weeks ago, West Virginia was -6 at Texas Tech, a game they failed to cover. Last week, Texas was -3.5 at Texas Tech, a game they won rather handily. Put those spread in conjunction with one another and there’s no way you can make the case that the Mountaineers should be favored by a field goal on the road at Texas. The other two common opponents also make the case that the Longhorns should not be dogs here – they gave Oklahoma the tougher test and dominated Kansas more than the Mountaineers did. Texas is doing what most programs do with a first year head coach and a freshman quarterback – they’re getting better as the season has progressed. Last time on this field, they hung 48 in a win over Iowa State. Last week, the Longhorns dominant defense held Texas Tech to 13 points and 225 passing yards. In fact, this elite level stop unit has allowed more than 226 passing yards only once all year. The three points the betting markets are giving us here are an absolute gift in a game where a moneyline play on the Longhorns is fully warranted. Big Ticket: Take Texas. |
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11-08-14 | Iowa v. Minnesota | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#124) Last year, Minnesota was flying high, off to a 4-0 start when they faced the Hawkeyes. The results weren’t pretty for Jerry Kill’s squad in that contest. Iowa handed Minnesota their worst loss of the season, outgaining the Gophers by nearly 300 yards in a 23-7 victory. This time around, Minnesota is the team rested and ready off their bye week, looking for payback. Running back David Cobb: “We were embarrassed on our home field. We didn’t play our game that day and yeah, it’s been in the back of our minds ever since.’’ QB Mitch Leidner: “It’s a rivalry game and we didn’t show up for it. As a team, it was one of the most frustrating things we experienced last season and we haven’t forgotten.’’ Both teams are sitting at 3-1 in the Big 10 with 6-2 records overall. But Iowa has accomplished that record in large part facing the dregs of the conference: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern and Maryland; only one of whom (Maryland) has a winning record in conference play. The Hawkeyes throttled Northwestern 48-7 last week, leading the markets to offer them some respect, putting this game in a pick ‘em price range. That’s a bargain for the Gophers! Gophers guard Zac Epping, talking about Minnesota’s mentality here: “Every year we play against them and it’s a bloodbath. The more physical team is going to win. … You have to be fast and come out swinging and make sure that you hit them harder before they hit you.’’ Iowa’s senior defensive tackle Louis Trinca-Pasat talking about how this is the best Minnesota team he’s faced during his tenure with the Hawkeyes: “Their line plays strong, they have good skills guys. It’s easy to see why they have the record they have.” These are two comparable teams, but only one of them is rested and ready off their bye, primed for revenge and fully focused on the task at hand. Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill, talking about why he took the unusual approach of practicing on Wednesday and Thursday of their bye week. “I wanted to do a little more preparation toward Iowa and get us ahead of things a little bit. It was a little bit of a different approach, but we needed it.’’ Look for that extra effort and emphasis to show on the field as the Gophers win the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy this year. Take Minnesota. |
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11-08-14 | Baylor +5 v. Oklahoma | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Baylor (#163) Here are recent results in games where Baylor was stepping up in class on the road since the start of the 2012 campaign – the post RG3 era. At #9 West Virginia (at the time) they hung 63 on the Mountaineers and covered. They hung 50 at Texas and covered. They hung 34 at Oklahoma and covered. They hung 35 at Kansas State and won. They hung 41 at TCU and won. And this year, they beat Texas by three touchdowns. Baylor has failed twice in this type of spot during this span, and both failures were in similar situations – after a long string of intense games without a bye week. Last year, that game came in an ugly blowout loss at Oklahoma State as road chalk. This year, it came in an ugly loss at West Virginia as road chalk. Following their bye two weeks ago, the Bears rebounded with a 60 point effort in a blowout against Kansas. And there’s little reason to think that they won’t be able to light up the scoreboard in Norman either; a team they’ve obliterated twice in the last three meetings while covering the spread by a couple of TD’s in the only recent meeting that they lost! It’s surely worth noting that the Bears have another bye next week – their entire attention during this three week cycle has been on pulling off this road upset. Oklahoma has not been able to get key stops defensively all year, bad news when laying points against an explosive offense like this. Texas moved the ball up and down the field against them with a frosh QB and a one dimensional attack. West Virginia, too, had similar success against the Sooners D. Oklahoma couldn’t stop Kansas state or TCU in losses to the Wildcats and Horned Frogs. Even last week’s absolute blowout over Iowa State must come with at least a bit of an asterisk, because the Cyclones dropped pass after pass, turning what could have been a competitive game into a blowout. That blowout creates real value problems for the Sooners here in a game Baylor is live to win in outright fashion. Take Baylor.. |
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11-01-14 | Wyoming v. Fresno State -14.5 | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Fresno State (#406) My clients and I cashed a very lucky winner last week when Wyoming came through the backdoor against Colorado State, turning another blowout loss for the Cowboys into a relatively respectable two touchdown defeat. But Wyoming was positively riddled with injuries following that contest. Their best running back (by far), Shaun Wick, is out for the next month. The Cowboys have cluster injuries at linebacker, on the offensive line and in the secondary, missing their best players on all three units. For a team that lacks quality depth (to put it mildly), in the first year of a new coaching regime, these losses are positively devastating. Coming off a bad loss to their arch-rival won’t exactly boost their energy and confidence. And with an 0-4 mark on the highway this year, losing every previous road game by a double digit margin, Wyoming is a bad, banged up football team primed to get whipped on Saturday Night. Since their 0-3 SU and ATS start to the season, suffering beatdown losses against Utah, USC and Nebraska, rebuilding Fresno has been taking significant positive strides. The Bulldogs defense has been dominant in each of their last two home games; forcing five turnovers while allowing only a combined 29 points. And while QB Brian Burrell is no Derek Carr, the Bulldogs have averaged more than four TD’s per game in Mountain West Conference play. Fresh and rested off their bye, look for Fresno to take care of business against their downtrodden foe. Take Fresno. |
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11-01-14 | Utah v. Arizona State -6 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona State (#390) Any college football head coach will tell you clearly that his team doesn’t ‘get up’ for every game. Sometimes those flat spots are ‘step down in class’ contests, like when Alabama failed to put a stake in Tennessee last week, or when Mississippi State couldn’t put away Kentucky. Other times, those flat spots come when a weaker team tries to step up in class, like Troy State on Thursday Night against Georgia Southern or Maryland trying (and failing) to stand tall at Wisconsin last Saturday. Utah’s situation this week is not that dissimilar to what we saw from the Terps against the Badgers last Saturday; an overachieving team primed to take a real whooping at the hands of a very motivated foe. Let me start with why Utah is not likely to be able to bring their ‘A’ game on Saturday – physical and mental fatigue. The Utes have played four consecutive absolute barnburners, games that, quite literally, came down to the final possession. They fell at home to Washington State by a single point. Then they rallied to beat UCLA by two. Their win over Oregon State was a wild one, coming in double overtime. And last week’s thrilling, last minute win over USC, scoring the winning TD with only eight seconds remaining on the clock. That win was a HUGE one for the program, giving them a sweep over the LA schools, and the team’s raucous on-field celebration was indicative of the significance of that victory. Now Utah has to try to get focused for a trip to Arizona State, with first place in the PAC-12 South on the line. Frankly, I don’t think they can do it, for a number of different reasons. Let’s start with the fact that Utah has been extraordinarily lucky this year; as lucky as any team in the country. They’ve been outgained in each of their last five games, yet the Utes have come away with four victories during that span. They’ve done it by winning the turnover battle and the special teams battle, week after week. That’s not going to happen forever. In fact, I don’t expect it to happen this week. Arizona State is the highest powered offense that Utah has seen this year. Don’t be fooled for a minute about the 24 points the Sun Devils put up last week at Wassou, a game played with the wind whipping at 30+ mph all night, negating any semblance of a passing attack. The 26 that Arizona State hung on Stanford the previous week is the most points that Stanford has allowed all year. With a healthy Taylor Kelly expected back behind center, Arizona State is a threat to score 50+ this week. And if Utah is involved in a ‘shootout’ type game, their offense simply isn’t good enough to trade points, even if they still had gas in the tank (which they don’t). The Utes simply don’t have the skill position talent to hang tough against elite offenses. QB Travis Wilson hasn’t thrown an interception all year , but he’s only completing 56% of his passes for a modest 7.1 yards per attempt. There are no gamebreakers here at WR. Only RB Devontae Booker has big play ability, and that’s simply not enough. A team that’s been winning with smoke and mirrors, getting every break in the fourth quarter of tight games is likely to having a hard time finding that same magic in Tempe on Saturday Night. Big Ticket: Take Arizona State. |
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11-01-14 | Kansas v. Baylor -35 | 14-60 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Baylor (#342) It’s not hard to make a case for betting on Baylor at home in any circumstance, particularly against an opponent that simply cannot trade points with anybody. After all, the Bears have enjoyed the single strongest homefield in all of college football in recent seasons, riding a remarkable 19-3 ATS run in Waco since the start of the 2011 campaign. In three home games this year, the Bears have averaged just shy of 59 points per contest; simply obliterating the opposition. And Baylor has a BIG chip on their shoulder following their ugly loss at West Virginia prior to their bye week. The Bears finished that game with 18 penalties for a Big 12 record 215 yards. Their potent offense sputtered throughout, held to season lows in points and yards. The Bears defense got torched, just one week after getting torched by TCU. This team desperately needed their bye week and now that they’ve had it, the Bears are primed to pummel somebody. Kansas is the ideal opponent for the home favorite in this type of situation. Just look at these quotes coming from the Bears and their staff during the bye. QB Bryce Petty: “That’s tough, especially coming off of a loss. You have to sit with it for a week. As far as the team, I thought we had a lot of focus. You want to get that taste out of your mouth, but we had to wait a week.” Head coach Art Briles: “"A lot of times you can float along and think everything is OK when maybe it's not and we were living proof that it's not, so we are certainly going to be a determined team here from this day forward without question.” Remember, one loss teams like Baylor have a vested interest in running up scores when they can in order to impress the selection committee. Kansas has already fired their head coach and pretty much assured themselves of yet another losing campaign in Lawrence. They lost at home 59-14 to Baylor last year and are riding a 24 game conference road losing streak. The Jayhawks are averaging less than 12 points per game against ‘Big 5 Conference’ competition this year; not exactly a major threat to come through the backdoor late. No surprise here if this pointspread is all but covered well before the fourth quarter rolls around. Take Baylor. |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +16 | 59-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#366) Mark Mangino was a great head coach at Kansas before getting into trouble and he’s been an absolute difference maker for the Iowa State program in his first year as their offensive coordinator. Iowa State’s offense has gotten better by the week, culminating in a truly impressive showing at Texas prior to their bye week, hanging 45 points and well over 500 yards on the best defense in the Big 12. QB Sam Richardson is exactly the kind of dual threat QB that Oklahoma has struggled to stop in 2014, and he’s in tremendous current form, throwing for more than 300 yards in each of his last two ballgames. Oklahoma has not been able to get key stops defensively. Texas moved the ball up and down the field against them, and the Longhorns offense hasn’t really worked in any of their other games. West Virginia, too, had similar success against the Sooners D. Oklahoma couldn’t stop Kansas state or TCU in losses to the Wildcats and Horned Frogs. For a team with national championship dreams heading into the season, that second loss just before the bye week was a dream killer, leaving the Sooners in ‘playing out the string’ mode moving forward. Iowa State hasn’t been winning many games, but they’ve been hanging tough with everybody on this field, including a tight, down to the wire four point loss to Kansas State. They’ve got the moxie and the personnel to keep this one within striking distance throughout. Take Iowa State. |
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11-01-14 | Air Force -2.5 v. Army | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Air Force (#331) Air Force has dominated Army here in the 21st century. The Falcons beat the Black Knights by two TD’s last year, their seventh victory in the last eight annual meetings between these two squads. All seven of those Air Force victories have come by more than a touchdown. And there’s little reason to expect a dramatically different result in 2014. This has been a resurgent season for Troy Calhoun’s squad following last year’s dismal 2-10 campaign. They’ve already beaten Navy, giving them a chance to accomplish their #1 goal for the season on Saturday – winning the Commander-in-Chief Trophy over the two other service academies. They’ll also have a chance to accomplish their #2 goal with a victory here, just one win shy of gaining bowl eligibility. And the Falcons are primed to do just that here. The key here is the Air Force defense facing Army’s option attack. Air Force has already played Navy and New Mexico, two teams with relatively similar styles to Army. Falcons nose guard Troy Timmerman: “It's definitely helpful. When you have an offense like that and you haven't seen it in a while, that first day of practice is an adjustment. But honestly we've been doing it all along, especially with Navy and New Mexico. We drill Army in the offseason and spring ball." Army has been a bottom feeder for decades, and 2014 is no exception to that rule. They’ve already lost to the likes of Kent State, Yale and Wake Forest; not exactly a who’s who of elite college football programs. The only two teams that Army has been able to beat are Buffalo and Ball State, both teams that are significantly weaker than the one they’ll face in early start action on Saturday. Take Air Force. |
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10-31-14 | Cincinnati v. Tulane OVER 58 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
Take Tulane – Cincinnati OVER (#309-310) I could sum this write-up up in a single sentence: “Cincinnati can’t be totaled in the 50’s”. Frankly, it really is that simple. Now that Bearcats QB Gunner Kiel has been upgraded to ‘probable’ (bruised ribs), it’s time to pull the trigger before the markets adjust appropriately. Kiel is the real deal at QB, a Notre Dame transfer who was the #1 QB recruit in the nation before heading to South Bend. Green Wave defensive tackle Kenny Welcome: “He's pretty accurate. They throw it deep a lot and have some pretty reliable receivers that come down with it and he has trust in his receivers so that's also good." Kiel’s numbers certainly show that; averaging a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt (tied for #15 in the country) with 20 TD’s on the season, despite missing some time due to injury. The Bearcats have scored 28, 31 and 43 in three previous road games this season, more than capable of approaching or exceeding those numbers here. Tulane hasn’t seen ANY top notch QB’s this year, and they’re coming off a stretch of three consecutive games (and a bye) against ‘all defense, no offense’ teams: Rutgers, UConn and Central Florida that deflated their scoring averages. The Green Wave have starting QB Tanner Lee back in the lineup this week following a month off with a shoulder injury, improving their offense considerably from backup Nick Montana’s ‘nothing but dinks and dunks’ approach. Lee is expecting much better results than he had earlier in the season: "I've just got to stop taking so many hits. A lot of those hits are my fault—just not getting rid of the ball fast enough or trying to do too much and that's what I used this bye week for – a lot of self-evaluation and just going through all my plays over and over again until I realize all my options and how to get out of stuff." Tulane is a good running team and Cincinnati’s run defense has been gashed repeatedly this year, ranked #109 in the nation at stopping the run. Sherman Badie is a big play RB with home run potential, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Lee: “It's nice to have somebody who can get you out of a hole when you are backed up and Sherman can run off for 30 yards and it opens up so much.” Expect the Green Wave to run and the Bearcats to throw successfully all night long. Take the Over. |
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10-25-14 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Penn State | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Ohio State (#195) Style points matter for Urban Meyer and the Ohio State Buckeyes these days. Ohio State is just one of more than a dozen major conference one loss squads right now, all vying for four of the inaugural college football playoff spots. Ohio State’s loss – at home to Virginia Tech – looks worse and worse on their resumes each passing week. If the Buckeyes are going to get an invite to the playoff party, they are going to have to impress a committee that collectively doesn’t watch very much college football. The only way to do that is to win by margin, week after week. And that’s just what Ohio State has done since that home loss to the Hokies. 66-0 against Kent State, 50-28 against Cincinnati, 52-24 against Maryland and 56-14 against Rutgers in their last four games, all wins and covers. And yet despite those impressive margins, starting QB JT Barrett has been on the field in the fourth quarter of all of those games. Meyer’s long term track record as big chalk (44-27-2 ATS when laying -13 or higher) speaks volumes about his knowledge of the national championship process – you gotta run up scores to impress voters and pollsters at every reasonable opportunity, particularly when given a prime time national TV opportunity like this one. The Nittany Lions lost 63-14 to Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes last year and that was with a much better team than this year’s version. James Franklin’s offense just doesn’t work right now, producing 13, 6 and 13 points in their first three Big 10 games, all against teams that are a long way from elite in the conference (Northwestern, Michigan and Rutgers). Penn State has an NFL-bound QB in Christian Hackenberg, but very little surrounding him, suffering from dismal offensive line play and a complete dearth of skill position talent. Just as importantly, Franklin isn’t looking to deviate from his ‘redshirt the freshmen and build back up the program’ motif. He’s got long term job security and the 2014 season means very little for his future in the big picture. The Nittany Lions are suffering the most effects from their massive NCAA sanctions this season, with only 64 scholarship players. But 17 of those players are freshmen that Franklin wants to redshirt, meaning that Penn State is working with an active roster of only 47 players right now. No wonder this team continues to wear down in the fourth quarter every week. By the fourth quarter of this game, I’m not expecting much fight left in the depleted roster. Take Ohio State. |
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10-25-14 | Wyoming +18.5 v. Colorado State | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#169) Here’s what I wrote about Colorado State two weeks ago when they went into Reno and knocked off the Wolfpack: “There’s an old expression from Desiderius Erasmus written in 1500 that goes like this: “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.” That’s very much the case in the Mountain West Conference this year; a league where just about every team in the league is ‘down’. Colorado State is perhaps the only exception to that rule. And while the Rams are not elite, they’re facing flawed competition with their eyes firmly on the prize of a MWC title; their first since 2003. The key takeaway there is that while Colorado State ranks among the best teams in a flawed conference, they are NOT elite. And when a ‘not elite’ team is being asked to lay nearly three touchdowns against their arch-rival, it’s not an easy pointspread to cover. To put this spread in it’s proper perspective, Wyoming has won four of the last five meetings in the Border War and Colorado State hasn’t been favored by more than 3.5 points in any meeting over the last ten years. And the Cowboys most assuredly remember the whipping that Colorado State handed them in Laramie last year, looking to repay the favor as they make the drive down to Ft Collins. Wyoming’s offense is all about ball control, keeping the opposing offense off the field. RB Shaun Wick is averaging 6.4 yards per carry, and the Rams defense is most assuredly not a ‘shut-down-the-run- completely’ type of stop unit. Wyoming’s defense is the strength of the team. They couldn’t shut down the likes of Oregon and Michigan State, but against five ‘comparable’ opponents, they’ve allowed less than 22 points per game. Colorado State has scored more than 31 points only twice all year. Once was against UC Davis, an FCS school. The other came against Tulsa; a team I’ve been betting against at every reasonable opportunity all year. The Rams are solid, not spectacular in that regard. And, after three years of ATS success under current head coach Jim McElwain (18-6 ATS L24 games), we’re starting to see real signs that the Rams are an overvalued commodity these days. Coming off an intense, physical game against Utah State, I’m expecting this pointspread to be a mountain that’s simply too high for the Rams to climb. Take Wyoming. |
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10-25-14 | Michigan +17.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 11-35 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#167) Michigan State has turned the tide on the Wolverines over the course of the last half decade, becoming the de-facto ‘go-to’ school for the elite in-state recruits. Michigan State is now competing for Big 10 titles while Michigan is competing for minor bowl berths, exactly the opposite of where these two programs were in the 80’s, 90’s and ‘00’. Yet despite the Spartans ascendance and the Wolverine decline, expecting Michigan State to win by more than 17 points is simply too much to ask. The Spartans have won five of the last six meetings between these two rivals, but only one of those five wins came by more than 17. It’s surely worth noting that Michigan State’s largest pointspread against Michigan in the last 30+ years has been the -4 they laid last year. This pointspread is way out of whack with historical norms. That’s meaningful here because A) Michigan is not that bad compared to recent editions and B) Michigan State is not anywhere near as good as they were last year, especially on the defensive side of the football. In a bitter rivalry that matters! Let me start with the Spartans defense; particularly their lack of depth. They were lucky to face Indiana’s third string quarterback last week. In prior weeks, the Spartans closed out the game by getting outscored 28-0 at Oregon and 19-0 at home by Nebraska. Michigan State didn’t force a fourth quarter punt by Wyoming, or by Purdue. Last year’s stop unit was truly elite. This year’s is not, and that makes a big difference in this pointspread range. Michigan State’s offense has also struggled against the only two decent defenses they’ve faced: Oregon and Nebraska. Michigan’s defense is certainly on par with those two schools. The Spartans endured extended scoring droughts against both of those foes. Against a first half schedule loaded with patsies, those were the only two ‘step up in class’ games and the Spartans were held in the 20’s both times. Not easy to cover -17 when you’re not likely to reach 30 points. The Wolverines are in a great spot here. They re-booted and re- energized their season with a win over Penn State two weeks ago, and then had a bye to focus for two full weeks on beating the Spartans. Michigan has faced the much tougher competition thusfar, a battle tested squad, Losses to Notre Dame, Utah and Minnesota don’t look so bad now – all three of those squads have exceeded early season expectations by a fairly wide margin. The Wolverines have a solid defense, a veteran quarterback and a legit big play weapon in Devin Fuenchess. I’m expecting a competitive contest, right through the final gun. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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10-25-14 | UMass v. Toledo OVER 71 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Toledo – UMass OVER (#149-150) UMass is the ultimate MAC Over team. In four conference games, the Minutemen have scored 36+ every time. QB Blake Frohnapfel has thrown 18 touchdown passes already and has 337 passing attempts, ranked among the top ten QB’s in the country in attempts, yards and TD’s. Star wideout Tajae Sharpe 890 receiving yards, good for fifth best in the nation; one of three different UMass receivers with at least four TD grabs. But for as good as the Minutemen passing game is, their defense is every bit as bad. UMass can’t get stops against mediocre foes, let alone a good MAC team like Toledo with an extra week to prepare. In their lone previous game totaled above 70 (against Bowling Green), the Minutemen scored 42 points and lost; one of three defeats this year in which they hung 38+ on their opponent but couldn’t get enough stops to win. Toledo has an offense that’s every bit as explosive as the UMass offense is, if not more. The Rockets certainly have better offensive balance than the Minutemen because they create big plays out of their running game. The Rockets top two backs (Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson) combine to average better than eight yards per carry! With an extra week to prepare, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Toledo hang half a hundred here, sending this game up and over the total. Take the Over. |
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10-25-14 | Maryland v. Wisconsin OVER 56 | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Maryland – Wisconsin OVER (#141-142) Wisconsin does only one thing well in 2014 – run the football with Melvin Gordon getting the lion’s share of the carries behind their massive offensive line. But with a 7.9 yards per carry average, more than 1000 rushing yards in six games and 13 rushing touchdown, that one thing the Badgers do well is VERY tough to stop. Maryland’s undersized front seven has been gashed repeatedly on the ground all year. In their last four games, the Terps have allowed more than 250 rushing yards per game. None of the teams they faced run the ball as well as Wisconsin. And the 83 points Maryland allowed to Ohio State and Iowa over the past two games tell us clearly that this defense is not anywhere close to being an elite stop unit. But the Terps are loaded with big play skill position talent; a strong offensive ballclub. Maryland has hung 34+ four times in their last five games, the lone exception coming in a four turnover debacle against Ohio State. CJ Brown is a dangerous dual threat QB. Stefon Diggs and Deon Long are both capable of turning a simple screen pass into a long touchdown catch, both speedy and elusive. The Badgers defense isn’t controlling the gameflow this year and they really haven’t faced a good pass offense all year. Look for a good handful of big play TD’s in this one, sending Maryland – Wisconsin flying Over the total. Take the Over. |
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10-18-14 | Washington +21 v. Oregon | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#361) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket Report with Washington last week, when they dominated Cal in Berkeley, winning wire-2-wire while covering the spread by four touchdowns. The Huskies remain an undervalued commodity this week as big underdogs at mighty Oregon. But Oregon may not be quite as ‘mighty’ as the marketplace thinks they are. The Ducks have been significantly overvalued from Day 1 this year. They’ve been favored by three TD’s or more on four occasions, failing to cover the pointspread in any of those contests. In three PAC-12 games, the Ducks are a grand total of +12 on the scoreboard, not exactly dominating the way they did last year or in any previous recent season. Both of Oregon’s covers need to come with an asterisk. UCLA was awful week; an overvalued commodity of their own, and they faced an angry Ducks team coming off an outright loss as 23 point favorites against Arizona on this very field. Their win and cover against Michigan State was not indicative of how the game was played at all – the Spartans were in position to win the game outright in the second half before a late defensive collapse. And their overall losing ATS results have come despite a +9 turnover margin, good for fifth best in the country! The Ducks offensive line is not what it was last year. Their running game has declined rather precipitously. Defensively, they’ve allowed 27+ in all four games against opposing ‘Power 5 Conference’ schools; shutting down only Wyoming and South Dakota State. Marcus Mariota is as good as any QB in college football, but this year, the talent surrounding him is not. The Huskies are fresh compared to Oregon, coming off a bye two weeks ago and a ‘no sweat’ blowout at Cal last week, their second SU road win of the year. Their lone loss, against mighty Stanford, came by a single touchdown. QB Cyler Miles has yet to throw a single interception in his first five starts of the season, while throwing nine TD passes. The Huskies are loaded in the trenches on both sides of the football – their strength is up front; an area were Oregon is not as strong in 2014. I’m expecting a competitive game; not a blowout, from a favorite that just isn’t blowing teams out the same way this year. Take Washington. |
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10-18-14 | Kentucky +10 v. LSU | 3-41 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#401) Here’s what I wrote about LSU two weeks ago when my clients and I cashed a winning bet against the Tigers in their 34 point loss at Auburn. “The 2014 Tigers are straying from historical norms, on both sides of the football. Let’s start with the LSU defense that has lost a dozen underclassmen to the NFL over the past three drafts. That’s significant attrition! That leaves Miles with very little defensive experience on his roster. LSU’s two deep features only three seniors, compared to a dozen freshmen and sophomores.” This is no dominant LSU defense, not by any stretch of the imagination. Mississippi State ran all over them. Auburn moved the ball at will against them. Wisconsin gained 268 yards at 6.9 yards per carry on the ground against them. Even Florida’s struggling offense had success moving the football against them last week. Facing a dynamic Kentucky attack, look for the Tigers stop unit to struggle again here. Offensively, the Tigers have been playing QB shuffle. Anthony Jennings got the start and the win at Florida last week, but he’s only completing 50% of his passes while throwing only six TD passes in seven games. His only 200 yard passing day all season came back in August. LSU’s top four WR’s feature three freshmen and a sophomore; not exactly the type of receiving corps a young, developing QB can bank on. Kentucky has been an SEC bottom feeder in football for most of the conference’s existence. In Mark Stoops second year on the job, clearly the 2014 Wildcats are different. They took Florida to triple OT before falling short in their last road game, their lone loss of the season and an easy pointspread cover for Kentucky supporters. They knocked off South Carolina, making impact plays during crunch time on both sides of the football. In a tale of two programs headed in opposite directions this year, I’m happy to take double digits with an underdog that may well be every bit as good as the favorite. Take Kentucky.. |
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10-18-14 | Southern Miss +9.5 v. North Texas | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Southern Miss (#349) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: “North Texas has no business as favorites of more than a touchdown.” If you don’t believe me, read this article from local sources in Denton: http://www.dentonrc.com/sports/colleges/north-texas-headlines/20141017-football-qb-among-questions-as-unt-hits-halfway.ece I’ll sum up the key points. North Texas has no quarterback. Head coach Dan McCarney: “It’s frustrating. We would all love to have a quarterback we trust and we respect and know he’s our guy. No question — we would love it. There are other teams in the country that are also not immune to what we are going through right now. Who is your guy? Who can you win with? Who will take care of the football? Who will make plays? Who is the leader? I wish I could tell you I know who that is right now. I don’t.” North Texas has no offensive line. Veteran lineman Mason Y’Barbo: ““Some guys are still learning. There are going to be growing pains with young guys.” North Texas lacks playmakers on offense, very short in the ‘skill position talent’ department. And the Mean Green defense has been a disaster, allowing 42, 49 and 56 points in their last three games against FBS foes, all against teams that wouldn’t be ranked among the Top 50 college football teams in any poll. These two quotes stand out. LB Derek Akunne: “We really need to work on technique, tackling and fundamentals. The way we have tackled has been disappointing. We set a standard last year. We are not form tackling.” Coach McCarney: “It’s a combination of things. We are not getting enough pressure up front and collapsing the pocket enough. Our technique at times has been poor, and our eyes reading routes and quarterbacks have not been very good. We need to play better — no doubt about it.” Southern Miss has been an absolute bottom feeder since Larry Fedora left for the North Carolina job following their 12-2 campaign in 2011. This year, under second year head coach Todd Monken, they are clearly getting better. The Eagles have two wins already this year, doubling their total from the last two years combined. And they were competitive in defeat last week against a solid Middle Tennessee squad. When a team goes from bottom feeder (a woeful 6-18 ATS heading into the campaign) to ‘competitive’, there’s plenty of value to support them on the way up. They are getting improved QB play from second year starter Nick Mullens. Coming off a bye, the Golden Eagles have spent two weeks getting ready for a team they can beat. Be sure to have at least a taste of the moneyline (in the +300 range) for this one! Take Southern Miss.. |
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10-18-14 | Appalachian State v. Troy -6 | 53-14 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Troy (#354) My clients and I cashed a wining bet against Appalachian State two weeks ago, when they lost at home to South Alabama by four touchdowns. The Mountaineers followed that up with another dreadful performance last week, losing at home to FCS Liberty. Rookie head coach Scott Satterfield is now 1-5 on the season, the lone win coming against FCS Campbell, not exactly elite level competition. Satterfield’s quote doesn’t exactly reek of confidence moving forward: “It’s tough. It was tough last year (when App State opened 1-6), and it’s tough again this year….Obviously, we have not done well in the win column to this point. We’ve got a lot of things we’ve got to get better at. We’ve got to take it one week at a time and just try to do the best we can against Troy.” Appalachian State is as young as it gets, playing their first full year of FBS football. 13 of their 22 starters are either freshmen or sophomores. Their defense has been torched to the tune of more than 500 yards per game and 45 points per game over the past three weeks (against very modest competition). Offensively, they’ve struggled with turnovers and struggled converting red zone chances into touchdowns; held to 21 points or less against every FBS foe that they’ve faced. This team isn’t confident. They don’t get stops. And they can’t trade points with anybody! Unlike App State, Troy still has bowl dreams and legitimate bowl potential now that their schedules softens considerably Troy started the season 0-5, and longtime head coach Larry Blakeney announced his retirement effective at the end of the season. Following that announcement, they came out last week and played their best game of the season, blowing out New Mexico State thanks to 360 rushing yards. And Blakeney expects continued success on the ground this week against a vulnerable App State 3-4 defense (read here: http://www.troymessenger.com/2014/10/17/trojans-try-for-two-straight/ ) Unlike App State, Troy still has bowl dreams and legitimate bowl potential now that their schedules softens considerably. That matters in pointspread ranges like this one, with the Trojans laying less than a TD. Take Troy. |
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10-18-14 | South Florida -1 v. Tulsa | Top | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take South Florida (#345) I’ve been betting against Tulsa at home, and this week’s game provides another excellent opportunity to fade the Golden Hurricanes. With the pointspread hovering near pick ‘em , I’m quite comfortable stepping up my wager to Big Ticket status, because these two teams are not equal, despite their identical 2-4 SU records. Tulsa is getting worse; USF is getting better, and we’ve got a bargain price to lay with Willie Taggart’s Bulls in early start action on Saturday. Let me start with an extended excerpt from my last anti-Tulsa write-up. “I got a call from a good contact that follows the Tulsa program closely when Bill Blankenship got the Hurricanes head coaching job after Todd Graham left for greener pastures following the 2011 season. That contact had a very strong opinion about the Blankenship hire. His quote: “He’s going to run that program into the ground.” Blankenship was a popular hire, a former star QB for the Golden Hurricane in the 1970’s. He then spent the next 15 years as a high school coach, befitting his coaching talent level. But then he decided to get into the collegiate ranks and his former school offered him an assistant’s job coaching wide receivers. While he was there, Graham took a long moribund program and brought it back to respectability, then excellence, notching ten wins or more three times in four years. Then Blankenship got the head coaching gig. Using Graham’s recruits, he went 8-5 in his first year at the helm; 11-3 the second year, culminating in an OT win over UCF in the C-USA Championship Game. But those kids graduated, and Blankenship didn’t exactly follow up with more success. Last year, Tulsa dropped to 3-9. This year, they’re 1-5, and the lone win must come with an asterisk. At home, as TD favorites over a bad Tulane team, Tulsa trailed throughout and despite a late TD and two point conversion, they were about to lose. Tulane burned the clock and set up for a game winning 21 yard field goal, an easy chip shot. It went wide left (by about 30 yards) and the Hurricanes managed to escape with a double OT victory. They certainly weren’t the ‘right side’ in that game, typical of every recent Hurricanes home game. In fact, win and “cover” over Tulane in their opener is the ONLY spread cover they’ve had at Chapman Stadium since 2012.” Contrast Tulsa’s five game losing streak and notably lethargic play (once things went south for them last week, their fourth quarter lead turned into a double digit deficit rather quickly) with the improved play from USF. The Bulls have covered three straight games. They completely shut down Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon for an entire half, and followed that up by holding East Carolina to their second lowest point total of the season last week. Make no mistake about it: USF is coming to play this week. QB Mike White: “This game is definitely a must win. Everything has to start now if we want a shot at making a bowl game and a shot at winning the conference." After blowing halftime leads in three of their four losses, this week, all the talk out of Tampa Bay was about playing four strong quarters of football, not two. USF has more talent, they care more and they are flat out better than Tulsa. By December, this pointspread is going to look like a real bargain in retrospect. Big Ticket: Take USF. |
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10-17-14 | Temple v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
Take Houston (#312) Temple has faced a remarkably weak schedule through the first half of the season; a big part of the reason why the Owls are 4-1 through their first five games. Their three wins against FBS competition have come against teams that are a combined 2-15 SU. One of those wins came in overtime after the opposing team missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation. The other came in come-from-behind fashion by three points against 1-6 MAC bottom feeder UMass. The teams that Temple has been beating are most assuredly not of Houston’s quality -- not even close. These two teams played last year in Philly and it really wasn’t close either. The Cougars dominated on both sides of the football; outgaining the Owls by more than 200 yards but they struggled in the red zone, setting for six field goal attempts. Houston still won by more than a touchdown and kept Temple off the scoreboard after halftime on the Owls homefield. Houston’s defense remains the best unit for either squad on the field Friday Night. The Cougars have the #1 ranked defense in the American Conference and rank among the Top 10 defenses in the country against the pass this year. Just as importantly, Houston has forced 19 turnovers in their first six games, picking up right where they left off last year when they forced a whopping 43 turnovers for the campaign. This stop unit has forced at least one turnover in 29 straight games, and they’ve forced multiple turnovers 24 times in their last 27 contests. This will be, by far, the toughest defense that young Owls QB PJ Walker has faced in his career. On a short week, in a hostile environment, I’m not expecting his ‘A’ game. The Cougars biggest problem this year has been offensive consistency, not overall talent. That all changed last week when struggling QB John O’Korn (only 51% completions, 8 INT’s compared to only six TD passes) was finally benched in favor of sophomore Greg Ward. All Ward did was lead the Cougars to a road win over one of the the best teams in the conference (Memphis), rushing for 95 yards while throwing for 188 more. There’s certainly no shortage of skill position talent around him; skill position talent that Temple simply can’t match. At first glance, this game might look close but on the final scoreboard, I’m expecting a comfortable Cougars victory. Take Houston. |
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10-11-14 | Colorado State -2.5 v. Nevada | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Colorado State (#199) There’s an old expression from Desiderius Erasmus written in 1500 that goes like this: “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.” That’s very much the case in the Mountain West Conference this year; a league where just about every team in the league is ‘down’. Colorado State is perhaps the only exception to that rule. And while the Rams are not elite, they’re facing flawed competition with their eyes firmly on the prize of a MWC title; their first since 2003. Colorado State beat the Wolfpack 38-17 last year; outgaining Nevada by more than 150 yards in the process. The Rams gained 8.9 yards per pass AND 8.9 yards per rush in that contest, grinding out 331 yards on the ground. The Rams offense is better this year than it was last year, with senior QB Garrett Grayson throwing for more than 900 yards in their last three ballgames while completing more than 67% of his pass attempts. That stretch includes an impressive road win at the same Boston College team that beat USC. Three different Rams backs are averaging at least six yards per carry. WR Rashard Higgins has developed into a very dangerous deep threat, with more than 580 receiving yards and eight TD’s. Facing a Wolfpack defense that was gashed for 51 points on 570 yards against Boise on this same field last week; I’m expecting continued offensive success for Colorado State. The only question here is whether Nevada can trade points with Colorado State, matching the Rams score for score. While the Wolfpack do have an excellent senior QB of their own in dual threat Cody Fajardo, the talent surrounding him isn’t particularly impressive. Plain and simple -- Nevada lacks quality running backs or explosive WR’s. Even in front of a frenzied Reno crowd, the Rams are the one-eyed man in this matchup. Take Colorado State. |
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10-11-14 | Alabama -9 v. Arkansas | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#159) Alabama beat Arkansas 52-0 last year. They beat Arkansas 52-0 in 2012 as well. While the Razorbacks are certainly improved in 2014, I’m not convinced their anywhere near improved enough to keep this game close for 60 minutes. And they’ll be facing an Alabama team that is still very much alive in the national championship hunt thanks to the new four team playoff format, not a devastated Alabama team that has no shot at achieving their goals following last week’s second half collapse at Ole Miss. It’s surely worth noting that margin of victory starts to matter for Alabama right now – they’ll have to prove to the committee that they’re the best of the one loss teams come December. No, this isn’t the best defense that Nick Saban has fielded during his tenure in Tuscaloosa. But it’s very clear where Alabama tends to struggle defensively – against opposing spread attacks, not against one dimensional power rushing attacks like the one the Razorbacks bring to the table. The fact that the Hogs haven’t scored a single point in the last nine quarters against this defense speaks volumes. When Arkansas can’t run, they can’t compete, plain and simple. We saw that clearly in their 24 point loss to Auburn in their opener, and I expect we’ll see it here as well. And it’s surely worth noting that if Arkansas falls behind, they’ve got no way to rally back without a strong downfield passing game. Brett Bielema’s defense is likely to have a very hard time with Alabama’s skill position talent. When you land the #1 recruiting class in the country year after year, it’s meaningful in matchups like this one. Talents like TJ Yeldon and Amari Cooper simply outclass what the Hogs can bring defensively, much the way they couldn’t get stops against A&M or Auburn when it mattered most. Expect a blowout from an angry Crimson Tide squad here! Take Alabama. |
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10-11-14 | Washington +4.5 v. California | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Washington (#169) Here’s what I wrote about Cal last week, prior to their game at Washington State. “Cal is being power rated about two touchdowns better than they were last year, and I don’t object to that notion – Sonny Dykes team is vastly improved compared to where they were in his first year on the job. But those improved power rating numbers don’t mean much when it comes to the Bears defense this week, because this is the very definition of a tired, worn down defense. Two weeks ago, the Cal D allowed five fourth quarter touchdowns (and a made two point conversion), blowing a huge lead at Arizona. The Bears defense was on the field for more than 100 plays in that devastating loss. Last week, Cal again failed to hold a fourth quarter lead with the game on the line. They prevailed in triple OT, but once again, the Bears defense was on the field for more than 100 intense plays. Now, a defense that has been on the field for an NCAA record 217 snaps over the last two games has to find a way to generate energy and stops once again. I don’t think they can do it.” And, of course, that defense didn’t do it. Cal allowed 734 passing yards in that ballgame. With the game on the line in the second half, the Bears allowed five touchdowns in a span of six possessions. Clinging to a late lead, Cal allowed Wassou to march down the field to the one yard line, burn clock and then miss the subsequent game winning 19 yard field goal attempt. And yes, that exhausted stop unit was on the field for another 95 plays. Yet the money continues to pour in on Cal this week, with +4’s now widely available for Washington as I write this, up from an opener that was -1. At some books, Washington opened as the favorite. This $$ has come despite the fact that Cal can’t stop anybody on defense; not what I’m looking for out of any favorite. Washington was a 28 point favorite against Cal last year, but they only won by 24. That marked the fifth straight win for the Huskies in this series, including a pair of victories (and pointspread covers) right here in Berkeley. Yes, Cal is better this year and Washington is down a notch, but a 32 point swing between last year’s line and this year’s line is a massive overreaction in my opinion. The Huskies are fresh, coming off a bye after taking mighty Stanford to the wire in their last game. Unlike Cal, Chris Peterson’s squad has a defense, holding four of their first five foes to 20 points or less. QB Cyler Miles has yet to throw a single interception in his first four starts of the season. The Huskies are loaded in the trenches on both sides of the football, and they trump Cal in the ‘skill position talent’ department as well. Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take Washington. |
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10-11-14 | TCU v. Baylor OVER 64.5 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Baylor – TCU OVER (#147-148) When these two teams met last year, the final score was 41-38. The year before, it was 49-21. In 2011, we saw a 50-48 shootout. All three of those games flew Over the total, and there’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different this time around. TCU’s offense is explosive, as we clearly saw last week when the Horned Frogs hung 37 points on 469 yards against mighty Oklahoma. Junior QB Trevone Boykin has guided his team to 30+ points in each of their first four games this year with a 10-2 TD – INT ratio. His ability to create big plays and key third down conversions with his legs has wreaked havoc on opposing stop units. Baylor nearly shut out Texas last week, but TCU ain’t Texas! In Waco, Baylor’s offense in the Bryce Petty era has truly been a thing of consistent beauty. The Bears scored 70 and 45 in their first two home games this year. Last year, they scored 69, 70, 70, 73, 71, 41 and 30 on this field. Petty is coming off the worst game of his collegiate career, and all reports indicate that he’s got more NFL upside than his predecessor, Robert Griffin III. I’m expecting a STRONG bounceback from Petty this week in a game that has ‘massive shootout’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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10-11-14 | Cincinnati v. Miami (Fla) OVER 57 | 34-55 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Miami – Cincinnati OVER (#133-134) Cincinnati hasn’t come close to stopping anybody this year. The Bearcats defense has allowed 91 points in their last two games alone, giving up more than 600 yards on the ground AND more than 600 yards through the air in those two contests. Miami was held to 17 points in their loss at Georgia Tech last week, and all the talk this week was about opening up the Hurricanes offense with more downfield passing, which should allow stud RB Duke Johnson to run wild. I’m expecting the ‘Canes to approach or exceed their season average at home, where they’ve scored just shy of 35 points per game. But Miami’s defense has shown plenty of vulnerability as well, and Tommy Tuberville has an offense that can score points in bunches, even without starting QB Gunner Kiel in the lineup. Backup Munchie Legaux was a multi-year starter for this squad and JUCO transfer Jarred Evans has been lighting it up in practice. It’s surely worth noting that Tuberville’s teams have scored 28+ 16 times in their last 27 ballgames, including three times in four games this year. Miami’s stop unit has allowed 28+ in three of their four games against ‘Big 5 Conference[ competition this year. No surprise here if this total gets obliterated rather early; a game that should fly Over the number. Take the Over. |
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10-04-14 | California v. Washington State -3 | 60-59 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Washington State (#396) Cal is being power rated about two touchdowns better than they were last year, and I don’t object to that notion – Sonny Dykes team is vastly improved compared to where they were in his first year on the job. But those improved power rating numbers don’t mean much when it comes to the Bears defense this week, because this is the very definition of a tired, worn down defense as they travel to Pullman to take on Mike Leach’s explosive Cougars offense. Two weeks ago, the Cal D allowed five fourth quarter touchdowns (and a made two point conversion), blowing a huge lead at Arizona. The Bears defense was on the field for more than 100 plays in that devastating loss. Last week, Cal again failed to hold a fourth quarter lead with the game on the line. They prevailed in triple OT, but once again, the Bears defense was on the field for more than 100 intense plays. Now, a defense that has been on the field for an NCAA record 217 snaps over the last two games has to find a way to generate energy and stops once again. I don’t think they can do it. Wassou QB Connor Halliday threw for 521 yards against this Bears stop unit last year, leading the Cougars to a 22 point road win in Berkeley. Halliday was brilliant again last week, rallying his team from an early 21-0 deficit to win outright as double digit underdogs at Utah; their third consecutive easy pointspread cover. Look for the gassed Bears to come up short on the scoreboard, as Leach gets the win and cover against his former assistant. Take Washington State. |
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10-04-14 | LSU v. Auburn -7.5 | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#372) LSU has been a VERY competitive underdog for the vast majority of the Les Miles era. And in general, betting the underdog in these battles between SEC powerhouses has been a profitable strategy in the modern era of college football. But this is 2014, and the 2014 Tigers are straying from historical norms, on both sides of the football. Let’s start with the LSU defense that has lost a dozen underclassmen to the NFL over the past three drafts. That’s significant attrition! That leaves Miles with very little defensive experience on his roster. LSU’s two deep features only three seniors, compared to a dozen freshmen and sophomores. After getting torched by Mississippi State at home in a tough test two weeks ago, now this inexperienced and suspect stop unit (nearly 600 rushing yards allowed.to Wisconsin and Mississippi State) must head into a hostile environment for the first time all year to face the single most explosive offense that they’ve seen thusfar. I’m not expecting it to go well for this LSU defense. Offensively, the Tigers are giving true frosh Brandon Harris the start at QB this week in a truly hostile environment. LSU’s top four WR’s feature three freshmen and a sophomore; not exactly the type of receiving corps a frosh QB can bank on, especially in a game where they are likely to be trailing, forced to take downfield shots. I’m not expecting this to go well for LSU’s offense either. LSU was the only team to beat Auburn prior to the national championship game last year; holding Nick Marshall and the Tigers offense to a season low 21 points in the process. With a chance for ‘meaningful’ revenge on their home field, I’m expecting Auburn to win this game rather handily. Take Auburn. |
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10-04-14 | South Alabama -3 v. Appalachian State | 47-21 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show | |
Take South Alabama (#349) This one is simple. South Alabama has a truly dominant defense by Sun Belt standards. They shut down Idaho on the road last week, much the same way they shut down Kent State in their road opener last month. The Vandals had and Golden Flashes were both held under 300 total yards and two touchdowns in their double digit losses to the Jaguars. Appalachian State has a very weak offense. In their first year as a D-1A program, the Mountaineers have a long, long way to go to be competitive at this level. The 14 points they managed against Georgia Southern last week was the fewest they’ve allowed against a D1 foe this year. The 20 they scored against Southern Miss the previous week was the fewest the Golden Eagles have allowed against a D1A foe as well. App St frosh QB Taylor Lamb has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns through his first few games. Leading receiver Simms McElfresh isn’t even averaging ten yards per reception; hard to do in the modern era of college football. Leading rusher Marcus Cox is no bruiser, weighing just 185 pounds. Despite playing behind an experienced OL, this team can’t trade points with anybody. Facing an elite defense isn’t going to help one iota. The Jaguars won by double digits in each of their first two road tilts and a similar margin here would be no surprise to this bettor! Take South Alabama. |
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10-04-14 | Stanford v. Notre Dame +2.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 102 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#368). Stanford has one enormous weakness this year. It cost them the win against USC and the cover against Washington. That fundamental flaw? A complete lack of skill position talent! As the Cardinal have won 11 or more games in each of the last four seasons, they’ve been sending some pretty talented players to the NFL. Guys like Toby Gerhart, Tyler Gaffney, Doug Baldwin, Coby Fleener, Zack Ertz, Chris Owusu, Stephan Taylor and of course, Andrew Luck have left Stanford for the NFL. And I’m not even talking offensive linemen here, just skill position talent. This year’s team just doesn’t have that level of talent on the offensive side of the football. QB Kevin Hogan still makes too many mistakes, and he’s no playmaker. Their ‘running back by committee’ approach has yielded some success for Barry Sanders son, but he’s only notched 21 carries through four games, not a reliable weapon. Their corps of pass catchers is even weaker than the running backs. And that – plain and simple – is why the Cardinal are struggling to score touchdowns. They’ve notched only two TD’s in ten red zone tries against Power 5 Conference competition, and it’s not going to be any easier for the Cardinal offense this week as they travel to South Bend. Notre Dame has the skill position talent that Stanford lacks. The 4-0 Fighting Irish have already made it to one national championship game in the Brian Kelly era, and this year’s team is loaded once again. QB Everett Golson has NFL upside. So does frosh RB sensation Greg Bryant and his counterpart Tarean Floston. WR Will Fuller could end up playing on Sunday’s. Their OL is loaded with NFL talent. Even kicker Kyle Brindza has NFL potential. Stanford’s first tough road test of the season is not one they should be laying points in. The Irish haven’t faced as tough of a schedule as Stanford has, but in 2014, they are the better of these two teams. Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
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10-02-14 | Florida Atlantic -6.5 v. Florida International | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
Take Florida Atlantic (#303). We’re getting a relatively cheap price to support the vastly superior team in a series with a history of blowouts – each of the last nine meetings has been decided by a TD or more, with FAU winning six of the last eight times. And with Florida International coming off a truly fraudulent victory over UAB last week, the price is right to fade Ron Turner’s Panthers in a game where they’ll be hard pressed to compete for the full 60 minutes. Early season college football results can be remarkably misleading, because different programs approach ‘step-up’ or ‘paycheck’ games differently. Florida Atlantic didn’t give a hoot about their results over the first two weeks of the season, when they were outscored by Nebraska and Alabama by a combined 96-7 margin. Those were ‘paycheck’ games, plain and simple. But the markets reacted strongly to those losses. That’s why FAU has gone 3-0 ATS in their three games since, including a pair of outright upset victories. Florida International, on the other hand, took their ‘paycheck’ game against Pitt seriously, and they hung around for a long while in that ballgame before falling short in the second half. Of course, the markets aren’t going to notice that Pitt did virtually nothing except for handing the ball off, a Paul Chryst ‘let’s line up and knock ‘em off the line of scrimmage’ type of gameplan for the Panthers. And last week’s upset at UAB featured two ‘blown coverage’ 75+ yard TD catches and two interception return touchdowns as part of a +6 turnover margin for the afternoon. For the game, the Panthers gained 2.5 yards per carry on the ground and completed only nine passes while notching only nine first downs. Those aren’t exactly ‘bet-on’ type numbers moving forward. Florida International is now +10 in turnovers for the season, masking major weaknesses on both sides of the football. The Panthers are a team that lacks decent quarterback play or a stop unit that can control the line of scrimmage against anybody. Florida Atlantic QB Jaquez Johnson has yet to throw an INT this year and he’s a dangerous dual threat QB who just torched an excellent, veteran UTSA defense last week in a thrilling, confidence inducing come-from-behind win against a quality foe. FAU beat FIU 21-6 last year and a similar margin sounds about right for the 2014 rematch. Take Florida Atlantic. |
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09-27-14 | Baylor v. Iowa State +23 | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#120) Over the last few years, Baylor has enjoyed the single strongest homefield edge in all of college football. They went 7-0 SU & ATS in Waco last year after closing out the 2012 season with three consecutive home wins and covers. Already this year, the Bears have won their two home games by a combined margin of 115-6, both easy wins and covers. Add it up and we’re talking about 12 consecutive wins and covers for Baylor at McLane Stadium. But when we take the Bears off of their homefield, they’ve been a dramatically overvalued commodity. The Bears played four games against ‘decent or better’ competition on the road last year; at Kansas State, at Oklahoma St, at TCU and in the Fiesta Bowl against UCF. The results of those four contests? 0-4 ATS, losing against the spread by a combined 84.5 points, an average loss by more than 3 TD’s per game against the spread! Yes, Baylor had a blowout win over a very bad Kansas team on the road last year and a blowout win over an even worse Buffalo team on the road this year. But Iowa State isn’t a bottom feeder like those two schools. And, after getting thoroughly humiliated by Baylor in a 71-7 loss in 2013, the Cyclones are primed for a bit of revenge this time around. Prior to last year’s annihilation, this was not a ‘blowout’ type series. Iowa State beat Baylor on this field by two touchdowns in 2012, holding Art Briles’ offense to a mere 21 points. The Bears also lost SU by two touchdowns on their previous visit, holding Art Briles offense to just ten points. Put these factors together and it’s clear that Baylor is overpriced here, laying more than 3 TD’s on the highway. The strength of the Iowa State defense is their veteran secondary; a unit that has played well in each of their first three ballgames. That’s bad news for a Baylor receiving corps missing Levi Norwood, with Clay Fuller, Devin Chafin, Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman all suffering from ailments. It’s surely worth noting that Iowa State has played a pair of ‘step-up-in-class’ games already vs. Iowa and Kansas State, while Baylor has played a trio of bottom feeders, inflating this pointspread even more. Too many points to give Iowa State for a national TV game at Trice Stadium on Saturday Night…… Take Iowa State. |
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09-27-14 | Texas State +3 v. Tulsa | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Texas State (#147) I got a call from a good contact that follows the Tulsa program closely when Bill Blankenship got the Hurricanes head coaching job after Todd Graham left for greener pastures following the 2011 season. That contact had a very strong opinion about the Blankenship hire. His quote: “He’s going to run that program into the ground.” Blankenship was a popular hire, a former star QB for the Golden Hurricane in the 1970’s. He then spent the next 15 years as a high school coach, befitting his coaching talent level. But then he decided to get into the collegiate ranks and his former school offered him an assistant’s job coaching wide receivers. While he was there, Graham took a long moribund program and brought it back to respectability, then excellence, notching ten wins or more three times in four years. Then Blankenship got the head coaching gig. Using Graham’s recruits, he went 8-5 in his first year at the helm; 11-3 the second year, culminating in an OT win over UCF in the C-USA Championship Game. But those kids graduated, and Blankenship didn’t exactly follow up with more success. Last year, Tulsa dropped to 3-9. This year, they’re 1-2, and the lone win must come with an asterisk. At home, as TD favorites over a bad Tulane team, Tulsa trailed throughout and despite a late TD and two point conversion, they were about to lose. Tulane burned the clock and set up for a game winning 21 yard field goal, an easy chip shot. It went wide left (by about 30 yards) and the Hurricanes managed to escape with a double OT victory. They certainly weren’t the ‘right side’ in that game, and in two games since, Tulsa is 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, losing to the spread by a combined 51 points; priced incorrectly by the betting markets in both instances. That doesn’t change here, because Tulsa isn’t better than Texas State on any field. This isn’t a strong home field these days, and that win and “cover” over Tulane in their opener is the ONLY spread cover they’ve had at Chapman Stadium since 2012. Dennis Franchione’s Bobcats gave Illinois everything they could handle last week in Champaign, hanging 35 on a Big 10 defense before falling just short on the scoreboard. Against weaker competition here, I’m expecting a SU Bobcats win against a program in free-fall. Take Texas State. |
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09-27-14 | Duke +7 v. Miami (Fla) | 10-22 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#179) What the heck does Duke have to do to start earning betting market respect? The Blue Devils won the ACC Coastal Division last year, finishing the campaign with ten wins and a near upset of Texas A&M in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl; not bad for a program that had notched a grand total of three 7+ win seasons over the previous 50 years. Yet all the preseason publications and online sources called for Duke to compete for last place, not first place in the ACC Coastal this year. But through their first three games, all David Cutcliffe’s squad has done is win games and cover pointspreads; a perfect 4-0 ATS against the opening number. No, they haven’t faced a team as good as Miami yet, but frankly, it’s hard to make a case that Miami is very good these days. The Hurricanes have stepped up in class twice this season. They lost both of those games by double digit margins against Nebraska and Louisville, two teams with power rating numbers that are very comparable to Duke. Miami’s homefield edge isn’t exactly strong these days, riding an 18-30 ATS run as home chalk into 2014. And Al Golden is no David Cutcliffe when it comes to X’s and O’s – not many teams are better coached than Duke these days. Duke beat Miami by 18 at home last year. They have the better quarterback with senior Anthony Boone avoiding mistakes in a way that ‘Canes frosh Brad Kaaya (7 INT’s already) is not. Duke Johnson is an elite back for Miami, but Blue Devils frosh Shaun Wilson has the type of explosive speed that we haven’t seen in many years wearing a Duke uniform . The Blue Devils certainly don’t lack confidence. They won SU on the highway five times last year and once already this season. They hung 45 on Miami on their last visit to Sun Life Stadium and 48 on Miami last year. Duke is 12-0 SU in their last dozen regular season games; consistently beating weaker or comparable competition, with both SU losses (the ACC title game and last year’s bowl game) coming as double digit underdogs. Expect a tight game, with Duke ‘live’ to pull off the outright upset. Take Duke. |
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09-27-14 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M OVER 71.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M – Arkansas OVER (#167-168) I’m not expecting either team to get many stops in this game. Last year’s meeting was a 45-33 shootout, and there’s no reason to expect anything different this time around…..except that Arkansas is a much better offensive team this year compared to the 2013 version. Texas A&M is going to do what they do. Kevin Sumlin’s offenses don’t get slowed down very often. The Aggies scored 41 or more points in each of their first ten games last year before injuries and attrition finally slowed them down at the end of the regular season. They bounced back in their bowl game, putting 52 points on the board. It’s been more of the same for Texas A&M even in the post Johnny Manziel era. QB Kenny Hill has stepped in for Manziel and the offense hasn’t missed a beat. They hung 52 on a decent SEC defense in their opener, beating up on South Carolina. Since that time, they’ve scored 58+ twice in three games, playing at a frenetic pace designed to limit defensive substitutions while paving the way for quick strike touchdowns. Hill’s stats are eye-popping: 13 TD’s with only one interception, 70% completions, 9.8 yards per pass attempt. Five different Aggies WR’s have TD catches of 25 yards or more; four other receivers have 20+ yard receptions as well. The Aggies have all of those passing yards AND they’ve averaged 200+ on the ground. Hill’s quote: “We're just going to keep playing the way we have been and prove to everybody that we can play.” Even though Arkansas has already seen a couple of uptempo spread offenses, they didn’t shut either one down, and Sumlin’s offense just might be the best of the bunch. Gus Malzahn’s Auburn offense hung 45 points on nearly 600 yards against them; numbers that would have and could have been higher had the Tigers needed fourth quarter points. We tend to think of Arkansas as a plodding, ball control, run first offense, based on Brett Bielema’s track record at Wisconsin and his first season coaching the Hogs last year. Some of that is true – this is a run-first attack. But to think of Arkansas as ‘ball control’ is not appropriate in 2014. In fact, the Razorbacks lead the nation with TEN touchdowns on drives of a minute or less this year. Arkansas has all kinds of big play ability at running back, bad news for an Aggie defense that hasn’t fared well against power rushing offenses at any point in the Sumlin era. Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams have 12 rushing touchdowns between them already, both guys averaging better than seven yards per carry. That’s how the Hogs have hung73, 49 and 52 points in their last three ballgames – nothing ‘plodding’ about that! And all of that rushing success has really opened things up for the Razorbacks passing game. Second year QB starter Brandon Allen is waaaaaay better than he was last year, including an 8-1 TD –INT ratio and a 7.9 yards per pass attempt average. And that’s why Arkansas is 4-0 to the Over in their first four games; an under-the-radar streak worth riding here. Expect a highly entertaining shootout in a game primed to FLY over the total. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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09-27-14 | Vanderbilt +17.5 v. Kentucky | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#139) This handicap starts and ends with the pointspread. Yes, Kentucky is better this year than they’ve been in recent seasons. That being said, the Wildcats are a long way from ‘juggernaut’ status; a mediocre ballclub in an elite conference. And yes, Vanderbilt is much weaker in 2014 than they were at any point during James Franklin’s three year tenure with the team. The Commodores are as young as any team in the country; they haven’t learned how to actually win games yet and this will be their first road test of the season. But can Kentucky really be asked to beat Vandy by three scores, with the current spread inching up from -17 to -17.5 or -18 in many locations? In three meetings over the last three years, Vanderbilt has won SU and ATS each time, by a combined score of 100- 14. Vandy has nine senior starters that were a part of all three of those wins, and six more seniors on their two-deep. While their two-deep is also loaded with freshman, first year head coach Derek Mason still has senior leadership on this squad. Vandy looked awful in their opener against Temple. They got absolutely stomped by Ole Miss the following week. In Week 3, they finally notched a win, rallying from behind to beat UMass. And last week, they finally covered a pointspread in a ‘closer than expected’ loss to South Carolina. There was nothing fraudulent about that result – Vandy gained 8.9 yards per pass attempt and 5.2 yards per rush against an opponent that shut down mighty Georgia in the second half the previous week. And the Commodores did this despite losing their starting quarterback well before halftime. While starting QB Patton Robinette is still a question mark for Saturday as he recovers from his concussion, frosh backup Wade Freebeck isn’t a huge drop-off. And, following that awful start – an awful start that attracted all kinds of media attention – it’s clear that Vandy has gotten better over the last month. That leaves them as an undervalued commodity moving forward. Over the last ten years, Kentucky has won a grand total of ONE SEC GAME by more than 17 points; none by more than 18 points. They’ve yet to beat a D-1A foe by more than 17 this year; managing only 20 points against Ohio U in their most recent game on this field. The Wildcats were eleven point underdogs when these two teams met last year and 7.5 point home underdogs when they met on this field two years ago. Is there really a 4-5 TD differential between these two teams’ respective talent levels from 2013 to 2014? I’m willing to bet that there isn’t! Take Vanderbilt. |
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09-26-14 | Middle Tennessee State v. Old Dominion OVER 67 | Top | 41-28 | Win | 100 | 57 h 1 m | Show |
Take Old Dominion - Middle Tennessee St OVER (#109-110). It’s not hard to make a case for any Old Dominion game to go Over a total in the 60’s. The Monarchs are absolutely built for shootouts. Their senior QB, Taylor Heinicke, will be the first player in the history of the ODU program to get drafted next spring. Heinicke has an NFL caliber arm, no question, quite capable of torching C-USA defenses like he did last week when he threw for 430 yards and five TD’s at defending conference champions Rice. Five different Monarch receivers have a catch of longer than 40 yards this year, and their running game has been explosive as a result: 101 carries for their running backs, producing well over 600 yards of offense. The only comparable attack that Middle Tennessee’s defense has faced this year was against Western Kentucky; a game that produced 97 points by triple OT, but went Over the total in regulation. The Blue Raiders defense allowed 43 completions for 593 yards in that ballgame against a QB and WR’s that are no better than what Old Dominion brings to the table. But Old Dominion’s defense is every bit as bad as their offense is good. In their first full year as a D-1A program, the Monarchs have a truly undersized defense that lacks speed, talent or confidence. Rice QB Driphus Jackson missed an extended portion of their game against ODU last week, but when he was in the game, the Owls scored TD’s six times in seven drives. That makes this quote from head coach Bobby Wilder even more pertinent: “Their quarterback Austin Grammer is a good athlete. He’s similar in his style of play to Driphus Jackson who we just saw last week with Rice. He’s a good thrower, he’s good running the ball. They’ll run designed runs with him, and he scrambles very well. He has the ability, like Taylor does, to scramble and still keep his eyes down the field. So he’s a dangerous player at quarterback. At running back they’ve got four really good players. “They play four running backs, they can run the ball well, protect the quarterback, and they catch the ball out of the back field, so you have to keep an eye on them, similar to our running backs. They’ll come out of the backfield and they’ll run routes. Wide receivers, tight ends, o-line, they’re all very good players. There’s a reason why they’ve been successful two years in a row offensively. They’ve got good scheme and then there is always a wrinkle, there’s always something each week that they’ll do to attack you in a different area.” That’s a coach who is clearly worried about his defense’s ability to force stops here…and I don’t blame him. I’m quite certain that Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill is equally concerned about his own defense. When both coaches are worried about getting stops, both coaches are likely to put the pedal to the metal when it comes to their offensive gamplan. No surprise here if the loser approaches or exceeds the five TD mark on a beautiful night in Norfolk on Friday. Take the Over. |
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09-20-14 | UL-Lafayette +17.5 v. Boise State | 9-34 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana - Lafayette (#393). Boise has just won and covered the spread in back-2-back weeks, taking market pressure off the ‘fade Boise’ mantra that had some steam following the Broncos ugly loss to Ole Miss in their opener. But while Bryan Harsin’s squad managed to steal ATS covers in those two contests, frankly, they didn’t deserve either one. That leaves Boise as an overvalued commodity as big home chalk against a Louisiana squad that’s on the other end of the value spectrum right now. Let me start with Boise’s back-2-back fraudulent covers, leaving final scores that weren’t indicative of how the games were played. Last week against UConn, Boise’s offense didn’t work: 13 first downs, only 292 total yards. They scored TD’s on an interception return and a fumble return. Another TD came following a UConn turnover in their own territory that left the Broncos with a short field. Boise punted seven times in that contest; not an offense clicking on all cylinders. Against Colorado State the previous week, Boise again took advantage of their opponent’s miscues for a lucky cover. The Rams lost by 13 points after they fumbled the ball away inside the Boise five yard line AND threw an interception deep in Boise territory with the spread cover on the line late in the fourth quarter. Boise was not dominant in that contest, and played lethargic football against a conference opponent with a second half lead. While Boise has gotten overvalued in recent weeks, we’re catching a very good Rajin’ Cajun team coming off back-2-back poor performances. The reigning Sun Belt champs are every bit as good this year (if not better) than they were last year when they won nine games for the third consecutive season. Two weeks ago, they ran into a Louisiana Tech buzzsaw, facing a hungry team primed for a statement win. Last week, they ran into Ole Miss, a team that annihilated Boise just a few weeks earlier; not the type of game where Louisiana expected to compete. The markets are calling this squad ‘down’ right now, but I’m just not buying that argument, especially for a squad that is -8 in turnovers thusfar (#124 in the country); a number that can only improve with stud senior QB Terrence Broadway primed for a bounceback effort here. Boise head coach Mark Hudspeth has faced Boise head coach Bryan Harsin before – last year, when Harsin was coaching at Arkansas State. Louisiana dominated the Red Wolves in that game, holding Arkansas State to a single touchdown in a 16 point road win. Hudspeth: “They're similar to Arkansas State (last year). They like to spread you out, use a lot of formations and personnel groupings.'' Cajuns linebacker Dominque Tovell: “We know we can do better (than the last two weeks)”. Linebacker Trae Johnson, talking about how the team has avoided three game losing streaks for the entirety of the Hudspeth era in Lafayette: “That’s a big deal. The past two weeks we’ve had some sad, bad meetings on Sunday when we get back up here, and we’re not really used to that. Not back-to-back, and not the way we’ve been getting beat lately. So winning this game – not just winning, but playing ball like we should, like we know we can, that’s the biggest thing, is just coming out of this game with all the kinks worked out and just playing ball.” Wrong pointspread range here, and there’s no rush to bet this one – expect more Boise $$ between now and kickoff! Take Louisiana. |
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09-20-14 | UNLV v. Houston OVER 62 | 14-47 | Loss | -118 | 33 h 40 m | Show | |
Take UNLV - Houston OVER (#359-360). UNLV’s defense hasn’t allowed fewer than 30 points per game since 2007, a consistently poor stop unit. That number is not likely to improve this year if we can believe what we’ve seen from the Rebels in their first two games against D-1A competition, allowing 58 points to Arizona and 48 to Northern Illinois. Arizona gained 787 yards against UNLV, Northern Illinois had 616; each squad moving the ball at will, both on the ground and through the air. There’s no reason to think that Houston won’t be capable of hanging six or seven TD’s on the Rebels this week. The Cougars have already faced a pair of strong stop units (Texas San Antonio and BYU), taking a major step down in class here. In their last seven tries as double digit favorites dating back to 2012 – the stat of the Tony Levine era -- the Cougars have hung 44, 39, 45, 40, 62, 35 and 47 points on their foes. QB John O’Korn completed 30 passes against the stout BYU stop unit on the road last week, throwing for more than 300 yards and three TD’s without an interception. Leading rusher Kenneth Farrow is averaging just shy of seven yards per carry. Playmaking wideouts Deontay Greenberry, Danny Spencer and Greg Ward are all capable of taking it to the end zone if they get the ball in space. UNLV is NOT primed to slow down Houston, not even a little bit. But the Rebels do have one strength – their receiving corps. QB Blake Decker threw for 397 yards last week. WR Devante Davis, like his counterparts on the Houston sideline, is a big play waiting to happen. Devonte Body has similar big play capability. Houston’s defense strength certainly isn’t their secondary. Expect a real shootout here, with both squads lighting up the scoreboard. Take the Over. |
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09-20-14 | Tulane v. Duke OVER 57.5 | 13-47 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Duke - Tulane OVER (#327-328). There’s something new in Durham this football season. It’s not Duke’s success. David Cutcliffe took this long moribund program to the ACC title game last December and coaxed ten wins out of his squad; not bad for a program that had won seven or more games only three times in the previous 50 years. But this year, Duke has legitimate skill position playmakers, guys that turn missed tackles into touchdowns. RB Shaun Wilson has 334 rushing yards on 21 carries, enjoying a coming out party against Kansas last Saturday. QB Anthony Boone isn’t just dinking and dunking, with 35+ yard TD passes to Max McCaffrey, Jamison Crowder and Isaac Blakeney already. Behind a veteran offensive line, the Blue Devils have averaged more than 40 points per game in their first three contests. They hung 48 on Tulane the last time these two teams met (in 2011), and that was a much less explosive offense than the one they have in 2014. Tulane is 3-0 to the Over in early season play, allowing 38 points to both D-1A foes that they faced (Tulsa and Georgia Tech); gashed both on the ground and through the air. But like Cutcliffe, Tulane head coach Curtis Johnson has found himself some real playmakers on offense this year. RB Sherman Badie is averaging more than nine yards per carry. WR’s Justyn Shackelford and Xavier Rush have caught five TD passes and average more than 20 yards per reception between them. Facing a Duke defense forced to play with freshman at LB and CB, I’m expecting both of these squads to get their fair share of points in this one. Take the Over. |
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09-20-14 | Old Dominion v. Rice -6.5 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Rice (#372) Rice is absolutely an undervalued commodity in this pointspread range against an Old Dominion team facing their toughest test of the season thusfar. And, after taking beatings at the hands of Notre Dame and Texas A&M – a pair of truly elite foes – in their first two games, this is a big step down in class for the Owls. Put those factors together and we’re talking about a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Rice is no bottom feeder. David Bailiff’s squad won ten games last year, including an upset win over Marshall in the C-USA Championship Game. They have an elite (by C-USA standards) offensive line, an emerging QB talent in Driphus Jackson surrounded by plenty of skill position talent. The Owls defensive strength is their pass rush and their secondary, exactly what you need against ‘pass only’ Old Dominion. Rice has performed well in this home favorite role throughout the Bailiff era; 11-4 ATS in their last 15 tries as home chalk. And Bailiff has been focusing on this particular matchup throughout the summer months. Here’s something from the local Houston papers this week: “According to Rice Head Coach David Bailiff, the Owls defense is adjusting to playing some of the top quarterbacks in the country. “You sure hope Golson and Hill prepared us for this game.” Bailiff said he showed his team more video of ODU last spring and summer than he did Notre Dame or Texas A&M. "It's our conference opener. And we can't take them lightly because they're a new team in our league. We know how athletic Old Dominion is. We know how fast they are."’ So, we’ve got a perennially undervalued home favorite, taking a major step down in class against an opponent that they’re fully focused to face. Old Dominion, on the other hand, is playing their first ever C-USA game in their first ever season as a full Division 1 program. The Monarchs have faced two absolute bottom feeders – Eastern Michigan and Hampton – and an NC State team that simply isn’t very good in their first three ballgames. Monarchs QB Taylor Heinicke has a big arm, and his WR’s are fast. But ODU is weak in the trenches on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Heincke isn’t healthy, suffering from a lingering bruise to his throwing shoulder, missing multiple practices this week. And Old Dominion’s back seven on defense are a long way from being ready to get consistent stops against a solid offense like the one Rice brings to the table. This game is a mismatch masquerading as a competitive contest, allowing us to cash a winning bet if the Owls win by a TD. I expect the margin to be far greater than that….. Big Ticket: Take Rice. |
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09-13-14 | Nebraska v. Fresno State OVER 62 | 55-19 | Win | 100 | 36 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska – Fresno OVER (#201-202) Here’s an excerpt from my Big Ticket write-up in support of Utah (against Fresno) last week talking about the Bulldogs defense: “Fresno’s defense is a mess right now. They were on the field for 103 plays against USC last weekend without forcing a punt. The Bulldogs weren’t a good defensive team last year, allowing more than 30 points per game, and their defensive line was decimated by graduation losses. I’m certainly not convinced that they can force many punts this week either.” That prediction proved correct. Fresno didn’t force many punts last week either, as Utah moved the football up and down the field like a hot knife through butter, scoring 59 points on more than 500 yards of offense. Even those results are misleading, because, quite literally, Utah could have scored on every possession had they maintained their intensity throughout. Nebraska can be expected to maintain their intensity throughout this ballgame after last week’s debacle against McNeese State, in which they needed an Ameer Abdullah TD scamper in the closing seconds to avoid overtime against an FCS foe. Bo Pelini hasn’t been shy about running up scores in non-conference affairs, hanging 37+ in seven of their last eight tries against Non-Big Five conference foes. Fresno allowed 50+ in each of their first two games and there’s little reason to think that Nebraska won’t approach the 50 point mark this week either. But Nebraska’s defense can’t be trust to get stops, particularly on the highway, and Fresno’s offense is primed for a breakout game as they return home and step down in class. Head coach Tim DeRuyter takes ‘big play’ shots repeatedly, and we can expect Fresno to throw deep early and often. QB’s Brandon Connette and Brian Burrell aren’t early round NFL draft choices like last year’s QB Derek Carr was, but a home game against a lesser defense should work wonders for this offenses’s ability to produce points in bunches. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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09-13-14 | UCLA -7 v. Texas | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take UCLA (#189) The Texas team that we saw getting blown off the field by BYU last week hasn’t gotten better over the last seven days. The Longhorns first ten drives produced six punts, three turnovers and a missed field goal attempt. Meanwhile, their defense allowed TD’s on four consecutive drives to open the second half. And UCLA is better than BYU! Texas is installing new schemes on both sides of the football here in 2014. First year head coach Charlie Strong has been forced to jettison numerous veterans who weren’t buying into his new era of accountability, a sharp departure from Mack Brown’s lackadaisical disciplinary approach. Both starting offensive tackles have been suspended; their star senior center is out for the year and their starting quarterback is out indefinitely, dealing with concussion issues. The Longhorns offense didn’t do much against North Texas in their opener – all they did was take advantage of Mean Green miscues. They couldn’t move the football last week. And there’s little reason to think we’ll see any semblance of improvement here as they try to step up in class once again, a team lacking in both confidence and execution these days. UCLA’s offense struggled in their opener, but their defense was good enough to win the game by themselves, cashing in on three return touchdowns. Last week, UCLA’s offense turned it around behind 396 passing yards from Heisman contending QB Brett Hundley, but their defense got confused by Memphis’s many varied and unique sets. UCLA’s defense didn’t just get ‘bad’ overnight – it was just ‘one of those games’ against an opponent that didn’t excite them very much. Thanks to that 0-2 ATS start, and statistical mediocrity from both offense and defense in those contests, we’re getting a remarkably cheap price to lay with the Bruins on Saturday Night. UCLA is no joke, a legitimate juggernaut of a team. They’ve got a great track record of road blowouts including wins and covers at Nebraska, Utah, Arizona and USC last year. Meanwhile, Texas simply isn’t capable of hanging with the big boys right now. Big Ticket: Take UCLA. |
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09-13-14 | Georgia v. South Carolina +7 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
Take South Carolina (#152) Three weeks ago, before the season started, South Carolina was about a three point favorite over Georgia on the ‘lookahead’ advanced wagering lines. Three weeks later – same teams, same schemes, same coaches, without a single major injury to warrant a significant power rating adjustment – Georgia now has to win the game by a touchdown in order to cover the spread, a legitimate ten point line move. I firmly believe that line move is based on faulty reasoning, offering tremendous value on the Gamecocks as home underdogs on Saturday. Georgia didn’t win a road game in regulation by more than a field goal last year. They’ve only played one game this year. Rebuilding Clemson came to Athens, played even with the Bulldogs for a half, then struggled mightily in the second half. Clemson was every bit as bad as Georgia was good, allowing Mark Richt’s squad won by more than three touchdowns. South Carolina got wiped out by Texas A&M on the opening night of the college season. Last week, East Carolina gave them a battle and South Carolina failed to cover again. But Texas A&M is clearly better than they were expected to be. East Carolina has a great senior quarterback and the Pirates have consistently hung tough in ‘step-up-in-class’ games under Ruffin McNeal. The fact that South Carolina has ‘struggled’ has everything to do with the fact that their opponents’ were good, not pushovers. That leaves South Carolina both battled tested and undervalued this week. Take South Carolina. |
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09-11-14 | Louisiana Tech +4 v. North Texas | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Take Louisiana Tech (#103). My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner in support of Louisiana Tech last week. The Bulldogs were catching more than two touchdowns at Sun Belt heavyweight Louisiana – Lafayette, but they completely dominated the game, winning by four touchdowns while covering the spread by more than six TD’s! Here’s an excerpt from last week’s write-up: “The Bulldogs won nine games in 2012, but lost head coach Sonny Dykes to Cal in the offseason. Skip Holtz’s first year on the job was downright ugly, as the Bulldogs went through an ugly rebuilding process while battling a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football. “This year, Louisiana Tech has a legitimate quarterback; Iowa transfer Cody Sokol. Sokol struggled early against Oklahoma, but he settled down after halftime, completing 14 of his final 18 pass attempts for 122 yards against the Sooners elite defense. Louisiana head coach Mark Hudspeth: “He's a perfect fit for that offense. He got much better in the second half (against Oklahoma), just was more comfortable. He's an accurate passer with good receivers.'' The Bulldogs can also expect to be vastly improved on the defensive side of the football under former Texas defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. Hudspeth, talking about all the different looks the La Tech defense brings: "It's a tough defense to figure out. We've already spent a lot of hours trying to crack the code and haven't done it yet.” North Texas is coming off a blowout win of their own, beating SMU 43-6 last Saturday. But that win had more to do with SMU’s ineptitude (Mustangs head coach June Jones resigned following the defeat) than anything North Texas did well. The Mean Green have one fundamental flaw here – they have no decent quarterback. Josh Greer and Andrew McNulty have combined for 34 pass attempts through two games, gaining only 123 yards on those 34 throws while throwing four interceptions without a TD. Last year, North Texas beat Louisiana Tech 28-13 thanks to a pair of defensive touchdowns. But their all senior defensive line graduated as did their All C-USA linebacker Zach Orr, leaving a front seven loaded with question marks here. That’s bad news against powerful La Tech back Kenneth Dixon, off a 184 yard rushing effort last week. And with very limited QB play, the Mean Green have little chance to rally back if they fall behind. I’m expecting the outright upset, with the 3.5 points offering a generous cushion should the Bulldogs fall just short. Take Louisiana Tech. |
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09-06-14 | Colorado State +10 v. Boise State | 24-37 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Colorado State (#385) We’ve got the Mountain West program on the rise catching double digits against the Mountain West program on the decline, a clear ‘bet-on vs. bet-against’ situation for the Colorado State – Boise matchup on Saturday Night. First, let me start with the pro-Rams portion of the equation. Colorado State has improved from 3-9 in each of the three seasons before Jim McElwain arrived in Ft Collins to 4-8 in 2012, then 8-5 last year. McElwain was Alabama’s offensive coordinator under Nick Saban and he’s taken a page or two from Saban’s methodology – the Rams are big and physical, with vastly improved depth and speed thanks to McElwain’s recruiting prowess. And in a down year for the Mountain West, there’s little reason to think that the Rams won’t be able to continue their ascension in 2014. Last week, Colorado State ran for 266 yards against a PAC-12 defense, blowing out Colorado as an underdog thanks to a huge second half. In true Saban mimicry fashion, McElwain was furious after the game, calling out his quarterback and receivers. “"I'll be straight up. I was disappointed with their play. They know it. We're better throwing the football than we showed. Naturally, everyone says it's Garrett, but it wasn't. We need to get that righted this week to be successful.” Senior QB Garrett Grayson: “We know Boise's going to be one of the best teams we'll play all year. To get them now, we're coming off a high note and we want to make sure it stays that way this week. ... We know if we want to win a Mountain West championship, we have to go through them." It’s surely worth noting that the Rams put up 626 yards and 35 first downs against Boise last year, outgaining the Broncos by nearly 200 yards even though they lost the game. Chris Peterson left Boise for Washington this past offseason because he saw the writing on the wall – Boise’s run of dominance in this conference was coming to an end. The cupboard isn’t bare for new head coach Bryan Harsin, but Boise is not loaded with the likes of Kellen Moore, Doug Martin, Austin Pettis and Titus Young on offense these days, all high NFL draft choices. They had to rebuild their offensive line this past offseason after losing a pair of starters to the NFL, and they lost a pair of first team All – MWC players from their defensive line as well. Last week, they lost DT stud Tyler Horn, their defensive leader. This is as weak as Boise has been in the trenches in at least a decade. The Broncos have been consistent money losers in this home favorite’s role; 5-13 ATS since the start of 2011; in sharp contrast to their enormous home field edge for the previous decade. A venue that had produced a steady diet of sellouts suddenly has thousands of tickets still available for this game because the locals know what’s coming in 2014. Boise will be hard pressed to win this game, let alone winning it by any sort of margin. Take Colorado State.. |
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09-06-14 | Louisiana Tech +14 v. UL-Lafayette | 48-20 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana Tech (#357) When grading out the personnel for these two teams, I simply don’t see two touchdowns worth of difference between them – not even close. And while Louisiana has become a Sun Belt powerhouse over the last few seasons, it speaks as much about the quality of competition in college football’s weakest D-1 conference as it does about the Rajin’ Cajuns ability to win by margin. But the primary focus here is on Louisiana Tech as a ‘bet-on’ team in this pointspread range. The Bulldogs won nine games in 2012, but lost head coach Sonny Dykes to Cal in the offseason. Skip Holtz’s first year on the job was downright ugly, as the Bulldogs went through an ugly rebuilding process while battling a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football. This year, Louisiana Tech has a legitimate quarterback; Iowa transfer Cody Sokol. Sokol struggled early against Oklahoma, but he settled down after halftime, completing 14 of his final 18 pass attempts for 122 yards against the Sooners elite defense. Louisiana head coach Mark Hudspeth: “He's a perfect fit for that offense. He got much better in the second half (against Oklahoma), just was more comfortable. He's an accurate passer with good receivers.'' The Bulldogs can also expect to be vastly improved on the defensive side of the football under former Texas defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. Hudspeth, talking about all the different looks the La Tech defense brings: "It's a tough defense to figure out. We've already spent a lot of hours trying to crack the code and haven't done it yet.” Meanwhile, Holtz is expecting a much better effort out of his defense this week after some struggles against the Sooners last Saturday. “I still think we have a lot of talent over there, but I was really disappointed with the way we played defensively….I think our defensive players would agree that we could improve tremendously just by controlling what we can control…. We did not have a single tackle for a loss. I am going to say some of that was attributed to them and what they do as an offensive line and how good they are. Part of it is us. What do we do? We go back to what we have been doing all camp and get our defensive line to hold their gap.” Senior DE Houston Bates: “Getting everybody on the same page and getting the big-eye look out of your face, that is what I asked the guys. Get the big-eye look out of your face because this is real, it is game time. I think this week we are going to be calmed down and everybody is going to play their game and we are going to play as one.” The Rajin Cajuns haven’t enjoyed a single winning season ATS as a home favorite since 2008; 7-12 ATS in this role. Last year’s team won the conference, but they still couldn’t cover the inflated pointspreads they were being asked to lay. That hasn’t changed in 2014. Take Louisiana Tech. |
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09-06-14 | Fresno State v. Utah -11.5 | Top | 27-59 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah (#338) We’ve got a genuine ‘bet-on’ team against a clear ‘bet-against’ squad in a very reasonable pointspread range – anything less than -14 offers bettors a real bargain on Saturday. That puts this play clearly into Big Ticket territory. First, let me establish Utah as a ‘bet-on’ team. The Utes were 4-2 last year, including a truly impressive upset win over Stanford on this field when the injury bug struck. That left head coach Kyle Wittingham with a depleted roster and resulted in a five game losing streak that doomed their season. They’re healthy again to open 2014, with a bevy of PAC-12 caliber skill position talent and QB Travis Wilson back behind center. This team is primed to put up points in bunches against weaker defenses under new coordinator Dave Christianson, like the Fresno State stop unit they’ll face on Saturday. Fresno’s defense is a mess right now. They were on the field for 103 plays against USC last weekend without forcing a punt. Now they’ve got to play in altitude against a hungry and talented offensive foe. The Bulldogs weren’t a good defensive team last year, allowing more than 30 points per game, and their defensive line was decimated by graduation losses. I’m certainly not convinced that they can force many punts this week either. Utah didn’t open up their playbook at all in their 56-14 win over Idaho State last week, so Fresno doesn’t even have the advantage of being able to slow down this offense via strong film study. Bulldogs head coach Tim DeRuyter knows that he’s up against it early in this rebuilding season. His quote: “You don’t have the luxury of feeling sorry for yourself, nobody does…We’re playing an excellent Utah team that’s physical. Clearly you can tell they’ve been in the Pac-12 for a few years now, they’ve recruited well. They’re very physical on both sides of the ball. They’ve got an experienced quarterback and some really outstanding wide receivers. On defense, they’ve been known to be a very physical defense, and this year’s unit is no different. I’m really impressed with their edge guys; they do a great job of pressuring quarterbacks.” Without Derek Carr, starting for the Oakland Raiders this year, Fresno’s two QB rotation looked awful last week (four INT’s without a TD pass); not a team primed to play well from behind. They were an overvalued commodity for most of last year, riding a 4-10-1 ATS run into Salt Lake City on Saturday. And given the cheap nature of this pointspread, I’m not convinced the markets have this Bulldogs team priced correctly in 2014 either. Expect a blowout. Big Ticket: Take Utah. |
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09-06-14 | Missouri -3.5 v. Toledo | 49-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Missouri (#321) The betting markets have fallen in love with Toledo this week, with money pouring in on the Rockets right from the get-go. That gives us a very cheap price to lay with the superior, focused road favorite, primed to take care of business at the Glass Bowl on Saturday afternoon. All the technical trends point towards the Tigers. This is Missouri’s role: 3-0 ATS laying points on the road last year; 7-2 since 2009. Head coach Gary Pinkel has taken care of business against non-conference foes, 9-4 ATS in his last 13 tries. Meanwhile, the long term trend of Toledo pulling off major upsets as a home underdog simply hasn’t been true of late. They beat the likes of Michigan, Colorado and Purdue between 2008 and 2010, but have only one cash in four tries as home dogs since. While Toledo is considered one of the favorites in the MAC this year, it’s clear already that the MAC is suffering through a down season. The other top team from the conference, Bowling Green, just got blasted by Western Kentucky in a 5TD pointspread loss last weekend. Money has been coming against the other heavyweight, Northern Illinois, all week as well. A simple strategy of ‘fading the MAC in short price ranges against solid Big 5 foes’ is not a bad one to consider. And while the Glass Bowl is known as a tough place to play, two factors mitigate this strong homefield on Saturday. First, it’s an early start game, not a raucous evening affair; a HUGE difference in this venue when it comes to the atmosphere. Secondly, Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel was the Toledo coach for nearly a decade – he’s not walking into Toledo overlooking the Rockets. Neither is his team. QB Maty Mauk, 4-1 as the starter: “It's not anybody we can take light. Toledo is a great football team. So we know what we've got to do. We're gonna come ready to go.” Pinkel, talking about his team’s enthusiasm and focus: "Trust me. They can't wait." Missouri beat Toledo by 15 last year; unable to contain the Tigers fierce pass rush. Expect more of the same in early start action on Saturday; a game the Tigers should control by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. Take Missouri. |
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09-05-14 | Washington State -3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 9 m | Show |
Take Washington State (#305) My contacts in Reno warned me when Brian Polian got the head coaching job at Nevada that the program was headed for decline. Polian was a special teams coordinator, bouncing around from school to school; never a head coach on any level prior to taking this job. The Wolfpack administration wanted a guy who could recruit, and Polian’s dad Bill had a ton of connections from his years as an NFL GM with the Bills and the Colts. In other words, to put it bluntly, his daddy got him the gig in Reno. Following a string of five consecutive winning seasons under former coach Chris Ault, the Wolfpack were awful in Polian’s first year on the job in 2013, finishing 4-8 SU. Five of those losses came by 17 points or more; ugly blowouts. And while the betting markets clearly respect a squad with 17 returning starters including playmaking senior QB Cody Fajardo, I’m firmly convinced that the Wolfpack are not primed for success against a quality foe on Friday Night. All reports out of Reno was that the Wolfpack looked no better than last year in their opener against Southern Utah, gutting out a nine point win as 24 point favorites. They punted on their first six possessions against a 1-AA foe. Polian: “They wouldn’t let us throw the ball over their heads. They tried to make us run the ball and dink and dunk short passes. They wanted to make us earn it.” That’s not the quote I’m looking for after facing a 1-AA foe. Polian’s takeaway following the game: “I’d rather be teaching off a victory than teaching off a loss.” Washington State just gave up 41 points and 496 yards while blowing a fourth quarter lead against Rutgers in their opener. That certainly creates a sense of urgency for Mike Leach and his team – a squad that made their first bowl game in a decade last year -- as they travel to Reno, with their brutal PAC-12 slate looming. The Cougars have a truly prolific passing game; a squad with the type of offensive skill position talent and speed that is poised to give the Wolpack’s smaller, slower secondary fits. They return third year starting senior QB Connor Halliday (more than 4500 passing yards last year) and his top eight receivers. Halliday threw for 532 yards and five TD’s last week against a better defense than the one he’ll face on Friday Night. Leach NEVER takes his foot off the gas pedal; a wholly appropriate strategy given the Cougars defensive shortcomings. Given Wassou’s full focus here, I’m expecting the Cougars to get into the 40’s and quite possibly the 50’s this week. I don’t expect Nevada to be able to keep up for the full 60 minutes. Take Washington State. |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Florida) v. Louisville -3.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 58 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Louisville (#210). I could do this write-up in four words: “In Petrino We Trust.” There’s a reason that despite some well-publicized personal shortcomings, Petrino continues to find work as a collegiate head coach – the guy wins, plain and simple. He certainly had his Western Kentucky team ready to play right out of the gate last year when they pulled an upset away from home against an SEC foe on opening day. He won 29 games in his last three years at Arkansas, a program that immediately declined to ‘SEC bottom feeder’ status upon his departure. And in his previous stint at Louisville, Petrino turned this middling program into a national powerhouse. Just look at these quotes from previous Petrino QB’s, like the New England Patriots Ryan Mallett: “He gets you into that mind-set where you practice so much and execute so much that that’s how you feel, and most of the time that’s the truth.” Former Packers second round pick Brian Brohm: “We really could do just about anything. He’s really good at taking advantage of the talent his team has, and the weakness of the other teams…. He’s coming back to a place where people already know him on a personal level. It’s not like he has to break in somewhere new where all they know are the headlines.” And Petrino’s own quotes reek of confidence as he heads into the opener: “I’ve always enjoyed opening with a game that had a lot at stake…I think it really helps you in the offseason. I think it helps you in your motivation in the weight room in the winter, getting up early, your early-morning workouts and then everything you do throughout the summer. I like that.” These two teams faced each other to close out the 2013 season in the Russell Athletic Bowl and the game was a complete mismatch; a 36-9 Cardinals victory. And while Louisville lost QB Teddy Bridgewater and a handful of key defensive stars to the NFL in the offseason, the Cardinals are still absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball. Reports out of camp indicate that new starting QB Will Gardner has been looking great. Petrino: “From the minute we stepped on campus as a new staff, he has kind of set the tone with the players that he was the leader. Jumped in there right away, took control, which was good to see. He’s very talented, he’s big, has a strong arm, can make the different throws that you need to make. “ Miami, on the other hand, is going with true frosh QB Brad Kaaya, a guy who wasn’t even in the mix for the starting QB job until injuries and attrition decimated Al Golden’s depth chart over the last month. Kaaya didn’t arrive on campus until May, missing all of spring practice. The team around him absolutely wilted away from home against quality foes last year, and I’m not convinced that 2014 is going to be any different in that regard. Bottom line: Let’s start betting on Petrino right now, before the markets adjust! Big Ticket: Take Louisville. |
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08-30-14 | Washington -17 v. Hawaii | 17-16 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#195) This game is an absolute mismatch, particularly in the trenches. Hawaii is 4-20 SU in the first two years of the Norm Chow era. Their athletic department faces a multi-million dollar budget deficit, a deficit so problematic that Athletic Director Ben Jay speaking to the Board of Regents last week: “There's a very real possibility of football going away” because of those budget shortfalls. That’s no way to start a season for a losing team that’s about to get physically mauled! Hawaii faced Chris Peterson’s Boise squad on this field two years ago and lost by five touchdowns The Warriors lost their season opener against PAC-12 opposition in each of the last two years, by a combined margin of79-23, non-competitive in defeat. The Warriors defensive line is seriously undersized. Their offensive line will be starting a pair of freshmen. QB Ikaika Woolsey only earned the job last week; a guy with 11 career completions (and a 0-3 TD-INT ratio) under his belt. And the Warriors pipeline of ultra-fast but undersized WR’s from the West Coast has closed in recent years; a team who’s recruiting talent base has declined precipitously. Defensively, this squad allowed six yards per SNAP last year and they don’t look a whole lot better in 2014. Peterson’s Boise teams consistently dominated their openers; a head coach with a proven track record of having his teams prepared from Day 1; including impressive wins over the likes of Oregon, Virginia Tech and Georgia. The Huskies are simply massive on their offensive and defensive lines. They’ve got five fifth year seniors in their two –deep on what could be the PAC-12’s best OL and all four starters back on their defensive line. QB Jeff Lindquist will get his first career start in an ideal setting – against a smaller, slower defense The 240 pound QB has been getting rave reviews in camp. Offensive coordinator Jonathan Smith said that his understanding of the new offensive scheme “has been pretty impressive. He’s really worked hard at it, diving into the playbook. I think his demeanor and his approach on the field is really good. He’s positive — a positive outlook every time he walks out there. Great energy at practice, and over time you come to appreciate that.” I’m expecting his starting debut to result in an easy victory for the road favorite on Saturday Night. Take Washington. |
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08-30-14 | Florida Atlantic v. Nebraska -21 | 7-55 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska (#170) Florida Atlantic has shown no ability to compete in these ‘paycheck’ games; games where the Owls head on the highway against a major conference foe for a fairly substantial fee. They opened at Nebraska in 2009, losing 49-3 against a weaker Cornhuskers team than they’ll face this year. In 2011, they opened at Florida, losing 41-3. In 2012, they visited Georgia, losing 56-20. Last year, Miami beat them 34-6 on opening day. Yes, the Owls covered a handful of pointspreads in these games, but none of them were priced this cheaply, and all the losses came by more than three touchdowns – the spread range for this year’s opening day matchup in Lincoln. Why is this line so cheap? Lines are based on power ratings more than any other factor. Power ratings are created by a thorough examination of rosters, player by player, and a mathematical assessment of the squad’s statistical profile. The markets react strongly to ‘returning starters’ and to injuries, particularly injuries to key skill position talents. And FAU comes into the season with their highest power rating number in years, based largely on their 4-0 SU and ATS mark down the stretch last November. But the betting markets do not factor in motivational issues as well as they should, hence many ‘cappers emphasis on ‘spot’ plays. And boy, this is one spot where traditional power rating numbers are likely to fail. Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini had his brother Carl as his defensive coordinator for four seasons prior to last year when he took the Florida Atlantic head coaching job. But Carl Pelini was forced to resign mid-season following murky allegations of drug abuse; a situation where he felt like the FAU athletic department didn’t stand by him at all. Carl Pelini knows the Owls personnel as well as any coach not named Charlie Partridge (the Owls new head coach). Bo Pelini has never been shy about running up scores; a good ‘bully’ when given the opportunity, as clearly evidenced by a 7-3 ATS mark as double digit favorites over the past two years. I’m not expecting the Huskers to let down at any point in this ballgame – if they have the chance to punch in a late TD (or two, or three), you can expect them to do it. I’m expecting an ugly loss for this outmanned, outclassed road underdog facing off against a coach that won’t be shy about humiliating them. Take Nebraska. |
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08-30-14 | California +11 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take California (#165) Last year was nothing short of disastrous for the Cal football program, starting right from Week 1. The Bears led Northwestern in the second half and the game was tied in the fourth quarter before the Wildcats pulled away with a pair of late TD drives. That started a precipitous decline for Sonny Dykes squad – they finished 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS; decimated with injuries especially on the defensive side of the ball where half of their two-deep was out for the year by November. It’s Year 2 of the Sonny Dykes era in Berkeley and we can expect things to be very different from the get-go from the nation’s single worst ATS squad over the last two years. Dykes, talking about this visit to Evanston: “We’re in a good spot. We’re looking forward to going out and playing.” And make no mistake about it – as s double digit underdog, Cal is capable of trading points with anybody. Sophomore QB Jared Goff has a year of experience as the starter under his belt and seven different WR’s are listed as potential starters on their depth chart. With 73 career starts returning on the offensive line, a Cal team that threw for 460 yards against Northwestern last year should be poised for big things once again. Throughout the Pat Fitzgerald era, Northwestern has been a strong underdog and a poor favorite, consistently unable to extend margins while playing in one tight game after the next. They covered only once in four tries as double digit chalk last year. Excluding their one remarkable 2012 season, the Wildcats are 5-18 ATS as home chalk under Fitzgerald, their single worst pointspread role. And Northwestern has already suffered some significant attrition to their offensive skill positions. They’ve lost their top receiver, Christian Jones, to a season ending knee injury. Their top running back, playmaker Venric Mark, just got suspended and chose to transfer to West Texas A&M this past week. On a rainy day in the Chicago suburbs, don’t expect the Wildcats to be able to pull away in what should be a competitive game throughout. And this generous double digit pointspread allows us to take this bet up to Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take California. |
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08-29-14 | Texas-San Antonio v. Houston -10 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -112 | 100 h 12 m | Show |
Take Houston (#152) Texas San Antonio was a solid moneymaker for their supporters last year, finishing the season on a five game SU winning streak while going 8-4 ATS for the campaign. Larry Coker’s squad returns nearly every starter on both sides of the football; exactly the type of resume that creates some buzz in the early season betting markets; markets that respect the hell out of returning starters. In fact, UTSA has 38 returning seniors, most in the country. But the one guy that graduated is the one guy they couldn’t afford to lose; QB Erik Sosa. Sosa was a threat with his legs as well as his arm, and left the school as their all-time career leading passer. The Roadrunners are not loaded with skill position talent or speed – QB play is paramount for this squad. First year starter Tucker Carter has a grand total of 33 career pass attempts and his receiving corps lacks big play ability. Against a high octane offense like Houston, the Roadrunners are going to need to put up points in bunches. I’m not convinced they’ll be able to do it. The Cougars are opening up a brand new stadium, bringing the requisite energy and fan enthusiasm for their 2014 debut. Like UTSA, Houston was a strong pointspread team last year, consistently undervalued by the markets. And they were a pretty darn good ‘blowout’ team, winning by double digits in all four tries as favorites of a TD or more (3-1 ATS). I’m expecting similar ‘character’ this year with the return of John O’Korn at QB, coming off a 3100 yards 28 TD campaign as a freshman! Houston beat UTSA 59-28 last year, completely dominating the fourth quarter to put away a tight game. And there’s reason to think that the Cougars could approach 50 points in the rematch as well, because Houston’s size and speed among their receivers looks like a mismatch against UTSA’s smaller, slower secondary. Deontay Greenberry, Daniel Spencer and Markeith Ambles are all capable of quick strike TD’s. And with nine Houston starters back from a defense that improved by more than two TD’s per game last year, this game has legitimate blowout potential. Take Houston. |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers v. Washington State OVER 61 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
Take Rutgers – Washington State OVER (#143-144) We’ve got two uptempo, high octane, pass-first offenses. We’ve got two mediocre defenses with notably suspect secondaries. And we’ve got a total in the low 60’s (it can’t possibly hold at 61 for much longer, hence the early release time on Monday). Put it all together and this game screams ‘shootout’! Washington State has a truly prolific passing game under head coach Mike Leach. The Cougars return third year starting senior QB Connor Halliday (more than 4500 passing yards last year) and his top eight receivers. The Cougars don’t let time tick off the clock running the football. Halliday averaged more than 60 pass attempts per game over his last eight contests last year, while the team averaged fewer than 20 rushing attempts per game. Given Leach’s track record, there’s no reason to expect anything different here in 2014. Rutgers has a returning senior starter at QB of their own in Gary Nova. He hired one of the brighter offensive minds in college football, former Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen, as his new coordinator. Nova had interception problems last year, but there’s no questioning his ‘big play’ arm strength and the Scarlet Knights have solid skill position talent around him. In 2012, five different members of the Rutgers secondary made it to an NFL training camp. Last year, Rutgers allowed a school record 4580 passing yards. New defensive coordinator Joe Rossi: “The guys that we put out there last year as freshmen, that were playing as true freshmen … they got a lot of great experience in game situations and that’s only going to benefit them. They’re still early in their progression, though.” The Scarlet Knights have suffered some key injuries in camp as well, forcing Justin Goodwin, a converted running back, into a starting role in the secondary. Head coach Kyle Flood is likely to rotate cornerbacks in and out of the game throughout, never a good sign. Washington State isn’t exactly loaded with defensive talent either; bad news with Rutgers returning every key player on their rock solid offensive line. The Cougars allowed 30+ in more than half of their games last year and lost five of their top eight players in the secondary to graduation, a suspect unit right from the get-go. Seven of Wassou’s last nine games in 2013 produced 66 points or more. Rutgers was a much lower scoring team, but in five games against pass heavy offenses, the Scarlet Knights allowed 52, 52, 49, 52 and 41 points; getting up and over the total each time. Expect Thursday Night fireworks in this one! Take the Over. |
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