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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-16 | Colorado State +6 v. Air Force | 46-49 | Win | 100 | 58 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Colorado State (#153) My clients and I cashed a winning Big Ticket bet in support of Colorado State last week, as the Rams shut out Fresno State 37-0. While the competition this week is a good notch or two tougher, taking the Rams at this attractive underdog price is a no brainer for this bettor! Here’s what Head Coach Mike Bobo said last week, talking about his team’s mentality following the bye: “It’s leadership of your football team, starting with me of setting the tone in today’s meetings and practice. And anything less than a championship practice is not acceptable. And we don’t accept it. I’d rather it come from the players than me. If it’s coming from the players, then we’ve got a chance to finish strong. If it’s coming from us, it’ll be a fight. This is the time of year where you’ve played eight games, you know, it’s a grind. And the mentally tough guys are the ones that are going to push through and have success late in the season. And that’s what I expect out of this football team.” The fact that the Rams came out and played a complete game against Fresno speaks volumes about that leadership. Colorado State has been a solid under-the-radar moneymaker for their supporters, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a very sluggish first few weeks. It’s worth noting that they are coming off their two best games of the year, including a blowout at UNLV in which starting QB Nick Stevens regained his job, while the Rams rushed for 220+ for the fourth time in eight games. This team is clearly an undervalued commodity in the markets and they’ve proven that they can win outright in hostile environments. Air Force has been anything BUT an undervalued commodity. Following their 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS start, the Falcons are just 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, losing all three times as the favorite. Their offense has been sluggish with starting QB Nate Romine dealing with an ankle injury that’s bothered him all year, while backup Arion Worthman is a clear drop-off. And this defense hasn’t faced many (any?) balanced attacks like the one the Rams bring to the table. Did I mention that they’re in a flat spot, coming off a big win against rival Army? Colorado State beat Air Force 38-23 last year as underdogs in Ft Collins. They lost by only three on their last visit to Colorado Springs and won 58-13 the year before that. This pointspread is simply too rich in a game where the underdog probably has the superior talent…. Take Colorado State. |
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11-12-16 | Michigan v. Iowa UNDER 51 | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 56 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Iowa UNDER (#209-210) This is, in essence, a bet AGAINST the Iowa offense and ON the Iowa defense. Here’s what I wrote about the Hawkeye offense last week, prior to their ugly 41-14 loss at Penn State: “Even against lesser competition, there are some MAJOR red flags showing for Iowa. QB CJ Beathard hasn’t had time to throw, taking 18 sacks already, tied for #92 in the country. Beathard isn’t loaded with playmaking weapons on the outside either – when Iowa falls behind, they’re not built to battle back. “Against Wisconsin, Iowa didn’t reach the end zone. Beathard took another four sacks and averaged only 4.6 yards per pass attempt. In each of their three losses this season, the Hawkeyes have failed to gain more than 83 yards on the ground. This offense is broken, and it’s not getting fixed without a talent infusion.” Michigan’s defense is national championship caliber. They’ve allowed more than 14 points only twice all year. Iowa has been held to 14 or less four times in their last six games, even against the likes of Rutgers and Minnesota’s defenses. For this game to get up and over the total, the Wolverines are going to have to cover this -21.5 point spread by a fairly wide margin. And I’m not convinced that the Wolverines offense is primed to light up the scoreboard here. After basically quitting last week, head coach Kirk Ferentz lit into his team this week, particularly on the defensive side of the football. And a fired up, feisty Iowa defense is the strength of that football team, holding foes to 17 points or less in half their games this year. Michigan has faced only one road ‘test’ all year; at throughout disappointing Michigan State. The offense didn’t click in that game, nor did it click against the only quality defense they’ve faced all year, against Wisconsin. The Wolverines scored 16 and 21 on their last two visits to Iowa City in games that produced 45 points or less both times, and this game has all the makings of another defensive struggle. Take the Under. |
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11-12-16 | USC v. Washington -8.5 | 26-13 | Loss | -102 | 56 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#188) I cashed a winning bet for myself and my clients wagering against Washington at Utah two weeks ago. Here’s a brief excerpt from that write-up: ‘Count me as a Washington believer – this isn’t a ‘Fade the Huskies because they are a fraud’ type of play. But that doesn’t mean Washington is worthy of anything but a fade this week. The rationale? This is a ‘Fade the Huskies’ situation because Washington is priced to high and this is a real road test for a team that has enjoyed an extraordinarily favorable schedule thusfar, leaving them as an overvalued commodity.’ Washington won that tough road test at Utah, and followed that up with a blowout win over Cal last week. The Huskies are most assuredly a good notch or two more tested now than they were, and this is a STRONG homefield, particularly against a team like USC. The time has come to be betting ON the Huskies! The Trojans have one legitimate weakness this year – their front seven on defense is a long, long way from being an elite unit. But that weakness hasn’t been on display since September, as the Trojans have faced their own version of a very soft schedule in recent weeks. USC has been hot: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five games. But four of those five games came against some of the weakest teams in the PAC-12, like last place Arizona and Oregon. In their only real test during that span against a strong defensive foe, USC struggled with turnovers against Colorado, unable to cover the spread in victory. The only two times other than Colorado that USC faced a team as strong as Washington in the trenches, they were blown off the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football – away from home at Stanford and at Alabama; games they lost by a combined margin of 79-16. In what is very much a statement game for the home team, expect USC to be in for another long night. Take Washington. |
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11-12-16 | South Florida -3 v. Memphis | Top | 49-42 | Win | 100 | 55 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take South Florida (#207) Here’s what I wrote about Memphis prior to their blowout win at SMU last Saturday: “Without Justin Fuente calling the shots and Paxton Lynch executing the gameplan, the Memphis offensive production has declined this year. The Tigers only two pointspread covers against FBS foes came back in early September against two bottom feeders: Kansas and Bowling Green. Their defense hasn’t shown up for two straight weeks, gashed for 101 points against Navy and Tulsa; unable to stop the run or the pass.” But the Tigers opened up the game with a 50 yard TD pass, took a 14-0 lead seconds later following a fumble, then scored on a kick return touchdown before the first quarter was through. Following another fumble, they punched in another short TD and the rout was on. South Florida ain’t SMU. These post-game SMU quotes stand out as well. Head coach Chad Morris: “This was the worst we've played this year. It's disappointing as a coach that we gave that performance. We didn't play well in all phases." QB Ben Hicks: "We just didn't have the same edge that we had the last couple of weeks. We didn't have a good practice, the focus wasn't very good, and I think it carried over. I just don't think we understand how to win. I think we felt like we'd arrived. Winning two games and then coming out and laying a goose egg like that is embarrassing.” In other words it more SMU bad than Memphis good – the Tigers remain a ‘bet-against’ team for me, especially against a quality defensive foe like USF. All three Tigers covers this year have come against bottom tier defenses. And make no mistake about it – the Bulls are coming to play on Saturday Night, and they’ve got a top tier stop unit! USF is coming off a much needed bye week, getting virtually all of their key banged up players healthy again after their defense finally got gassed in the last two games before the break. The Bulls lost to Memphis in each of the last three seasons, including a frustrating seven point defeat last year; the last game before their turnaround (closing the season on a 7-1 run following a 1-3 start). This is a game that Willie Taggart and his AAC Championship contending squad has circled on their schedules. Here are some quotes out of practice this week about the vastly underrated #9 scoring offense in the country: “I really liked the communication we had at practice and that’s always big for us. I thought our guys were really locked in to the game plan and the execution was sharp. I thought (quarterback) Quinton (Flowers) threw the ball really well this week in practice.” USF is the better offensive team, the better defensive team, and the MUCH fresher team – the Tigers bye week came back on September 10th. Memphis is fat and happy off a win, now stepping up in class. USF is a 7-2 team with blowout wins on the road at Syracuse and Cinci, fresh and rested off their bye and still playing for a shot at the conference title. This game is a mismatch far more than the pointspread would indicate. Big Ticket: Take South Florida. |
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11-11-16 | Boston College +21 v. Florida State | 7-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Boston College (#117) In 2012, Florida State went 10-1 to open the season, entering November with a boatload of momentum. In 2013, the Seminoles went undefeated, dominating foes in November. In 2014, Jimbo Fisher’s squad won 13 straight games before a loss in the playoffs against Oregon. Last year, Florida State entered November with a 7-1 record, still very much in contention for an ACC title and another appearance in the college football playoffs. All of that has changed here in 2016. Florida State entered November with three losses – all in ACC play. They’re out of contention for an ACC Title game appearance or any of the biggest bowl games. A team that is used to competing at the highest level of college football has now been relegated to ‘playing out the string’ status, with two essentially meaningless games prior to their regular season finale against Florida. Last week, following the Seminoles third defeat, FSU looked lifeless and lethargic, barely escaping past a mediocre NC State team. I’m not expecting a significantly different energy level here for a team that is 0-fer the season ATS when laying -6 or higher. Two of their four spread covers came as underdogs, the other two came as short favorites. When asked to win by big margin, Florida State has been consistently unable to cover the number. Boston College gave Florida State everything they could handle last year, holding FSU to just 14 points and 217 yards. Steve Addazio’s Eagles gave FSU fits the year before as well, losing only 20-17 on this field as 18 point underdogs. BC has struggled against mobile QB’s like Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson this year, but Seminoles frosh QB DeAndre Francois has netted only 89 rushing yards all year. This game probably won’t be particularly pretty to watch, but it should cash our BC ticket with relative ease. Take Boston College. |
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11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State +6 | 49-26 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#116) Since their 4-0 start, Arizona State has seen a barrage of injuries turn their season south, with four losses in their last five ballgames including an ugly one at Oregon prior to their bye week. But needing only one win to clinch bowl eligibility, playing their last home game of the season, there’s a real sense of urgency for the Sun Devils tonight. And for all of their struggles, two things really stand out about ASU for this ballgame. First, this homefield is a strong one! Arizona State is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS at home this year; now 21-5 SU on this field since the start of 2013. Their lone loss in Tempe came in hotly contested fashion against Washington State (6-0 in the PAC-12); a five point spread covering defeat. You don’t want ASU away from home, but you do want them at Sun Devil Stadium. Secondly, and most importantly, Arizona State is finally getting healthy again. From local news sources, it appears as if the Sun Devils should get QB Manny Wilkins back in the lineup, along with RB Demario Richard, LB Salamo Fiso and DB’s Kareem Orr and Armond Perry. For a team with no decent backup QB to speak of, limited RB depth and even more limited defensive depth; these key players all returning at the same time is worthy of a significant power ratings adjustment…an adjustment that the betting markets have not made. Head coach Todd Graham: “Right now we’re just focused on trying to beat Utah, and then go to the next game. We feel like we’re going to have more than half those guys back, and so that’s going to help us tremendously…..We got the 16th-ranked team in the country coming in here, and nothing matters except our guys in this senior bunch figuring out a way when this gun goes off to be one point ahead.” Utah is a good team, not a great one. Their offense is a one trick pony: Joe Williams left, Joe Williams right, Joe Williams up the middle. QB Tory Williams doesn’t have a downfield arm and his receiving corps lacks explosive playmakers. Utah is not built to roll over teams, especially on the highway – all three previous PAC-12 road games have been decided by a TD or less. The outright upset would be no shock for this bettor…. Take Arizona State. |
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11-05-16 | Iowa v. Penn State -7.5 | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 55 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Penn State (#406) Here’s an excerpt from what I wrote about Iowa, prior to cashing a winning bet against them at home vs. Wisconsin: “Let’s me start with a little strength of schedule analysis. Since their 12-0 start last year, the Hawkeyes have failed their only tests – losing to Michigan State and Stanford down the stretch by a combined 61-29 score. So far this season the Hawkeyes toughest competition has been Minnesota and Northwestern. “Even against that level of competition, the Hawkeyes have struggled. They barely beat Minnesota with the Gophers missing their three year starter at QB. And they lost at home to Northwestern, giving up 38 points to the only decent offense they’ve faced all season. “Even against lesser competition, there are some MAJOR red flags showing for Iowa. QB CJ Beathard hasn’t had time to throw, taking 18 sacks already, tied for #92 in the country. Beathard isn’t loaded with playmaking weapons on the outside either – when Iowa falls behind, they’re not built to battle back. Against Wisconsin, Iowa didn’t reach the end zone. Beathard took another four sacks and averaged only 4.6 yards per pass attempt. In each of their three losses this season, the Hawkeyes have failed to gain more than 83 yards on the ground. This offense is broken, and it’s not getting fixed without a talent infusion. That’s bad news against Penn State. The Nittany Lions have remarkable depth on their defensive front, with 11 different players seeing 100+ snaps so far this season. Key veteran linebackers Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda have returned from injuries to lead James Franklin’s defense . In the last three weeks, they’ve shut down Maryland, Purdue and most impressively Ohio State. They forced four turnovers last week; a far cry from where this defense was a month ago, when they were besieged with key injuries. But more than any other factor, this bet is ON the Penn State offense. Saquon Barkley is as good as any back in the conference, averaging a whopping six yards per carry. QB Trace McSoreley has thrown at least one TD in every start while only throwing three interceptions on 223 pass attempts. Seven different receivers have caught a TD and seven receivers have at least one 40+ yard catch. Iowa’s defense is solid, but Penn State’s attack has been relentless, particularly after halftime, simply wearing teams down. Take Penn State. |
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11-05-16 | Memphis v. SMU +3 | 51-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take SMU (#404) I’m always looking for teams that are playing at a VERY different level here in November than they were for the majority of the season, when their power rating number was basically established and cemented. SMU certainly falls into that category. Less than a month ago, Chad Morris’s Mustangs were in a world of hurt. Starting QB Matt Davis was knocked out for the year, and the offense couldn’t get going under his replacement, redshirt frosh Ben Hicks. Meanwhile, their defense got lit up in back-2-back ugly losses against TCU and Temple, and it wasn’t any better following their heartbreaking OT loss to Tulsa the following week. But the Tulsa game marked a turning point for the coach who designed Clemson’s offense and was one of the hottest coaching commodities out there when he took this job prior to the 2015 season. SMU hung 40 in that game, and Hicks was a big reason why. He followed that up with a strong showing in a shockingly easy upset over Houston the following week. Last week, Hicks (a Top 50 QB prospect coming out of high school -- the guy Morris wanted for this job) enjoyed his first 300 yard passing effort as a collegiate head coach as he rallied the Mustangs from behind on the road in a real flat spot at Tulane. Hicks is playing much, much better than he was a month ago. RB Braedon West is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. WR ‘s Courtland Southerland and James Proche will be two of the three best receivers on the field here (Memphis has one downfield weapon, Anthony Miller). And the much maligned SMU defense has improved as well; particularly against the pass, sealing the game last week with a game ending interception just one week after shutting down Houston’s Greg Ward. Without Justin Fuente calling the shots and Paxton Lynch executing the gameplan, the Memphis offensive production has declined this year. The Tigers only two pointspread covers against FBS foes came back in early September against two bottom feeders: Kansas and Bowling Green. Their defense hasn’t shown up for two straight weeks, gashed for 101 points against Navy and Tulsa; unable to stop the run or the pass. A road game in Dallas isn’t going to help this team regain their mojo! Memphis beat SMU 63-0 to close out the Mustangs 2-10 campaign last November, with Paxton Lynch tying an NCAA record with seven TD passes in the first HALF! Expect some payback! Take SMU. |
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11-05-16 | Fresno State v. Colorado State -15.5 | Top | 0-37 | Win | 100 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Colorado State (#372) It’s been a tumultuous season at Fresno State, to say the least. The Bulldogs opened up the season with a 1-7 mark; a big fall for a competitive Mountain West program that was 11-2 as recently as 2013. Head coach Tim DeRuyter got fired following an 18 point road loss at Utah State. Last week, the Bulldogs got Air Force at home, and gave a spirited battle with a ‘win one for our departed coach’ mentality. So what happened ? Fresno led 14-0 early; their biggest lead against an FBS foe all season. Fresno led after three quarters. And then Fresno got crushed in the fourth, losing at home by double digits. Offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau was named as the interim head coach for the Bulldogs following DeRuyter’s dismissal. He has no history with the team or the program, just hired last December, and is not considered a serious candidate for the job. Jeff Tedford rumors continue to float around Fresno. So, we’re talking about a team with a ‘substitute teacher’ as their head coach right now. They gave a HUGE effort at home last week, but came up short. Now they’ve got to make the trip up to Ft Collins to face a rested, focused Colorado State team coming off their bye week. One week after facing an option offense, the defense must re-group to face a pass first attack. After four consecutive SU losses but ATS wins, I’m not convinced that Fresno has ANYTHING left in the tank whatsoever; a bad team playing out the string moving forward. And Colorado State will be very familiar the Fresno defensive gameplan! Rams head coach Mike Bobo faced Bulldogs defensive coordinator Lorenzo Ward when Bobo was at Georgia and Ward at South Carolina. It’s worth noting that Bobo got promoted, while Ward got demoted (out of the SEC, into the Mountain West) following their respective SEC tenures. Bobo, talking about his team’s mentality following the bye: “It’s leadership of your football team, starting with me of setting the tone in today’s meetings and practice. And anything less than a championship practice is not acceptable. And we don’t accept it. I’d rather it come from the players than me. If it’s coming from the players, then we’ve got a chance to finish strong. If it’s coming from us, it’ll be a fight. This is the time of year where you’ve played eight games, you know, it’s a grind. And the mentally tough guys are the ones that are going to push through and have success late in the season. And that’s what I expect out of this football team.” Colorado State has been a solid under-the-radar moneymaker for their supporters, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a very sluggish first few weeks. Their coming off their best game of the year, a blowout at UNLV in which starting QB Nick Stevens regained his job, while the Rams rushed for 220+ for the fourth time in eight game. obo, following practice earlier in the week: “I thought they worked really well today in practice, got after it, competed. We were able to study our installation from Monday’s practice and go out and implement it. … If we want to finish the way we say we want to finish, than we’ve got to put in the work.” Big difference in freshness, class and mentality for this game! Big Ticket: Take Colorado State. |
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11-05-16 | Pittsburgh +3 v. Miami (Fla) | 28-51 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#361) My clients and I cashed a winning Big Ticket bet against Miami as favorites against North Carolina. We cashed another winning bet going against the Hurricanes as underdogs against Virginia Tech last week. And while I wasn’t willing to pull the trigger on Notre Dame over Miami last week, the ‘Canes found a way to lose their fourth straight game in that contest. Their 4-0 start is a long, long way in the rear view mirror now, a start that looks even less impressive in retrospect: wins over Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State and Georgia Tech. What’s wrong with the Hurricanes? Everything! But it starts up front with an injury riddled and poorly performing offensive line. QB Brad Kaaya is under constant pressure. The ‘Canes have been held under 65 net rushing yards three times in the last four weeks. Their defense has been consistently gashed, both on the ground and through the air, allowing 67 points and nearly 1000 yards over the past two weeks. First year head coach Mark Richt knows full well that he gets a mulligan in Year 1, and he’s taking advantage of it. His quote, about the Canes depth problems right now: ‘Overall, we’re thin.” With injury issues on all three defensive units pus the offensive line, Richt’s depth concerns aren’t going away any time soon. And this is what Miami was saying after the first loss of this skid. Offensive lineman Nick Linder: “There can’t be any hangover. We’ve got to run the table.” Defensive end Demetrius Jackson: “We can’t mope because we can control our own destiny.” It’s three weeks later and the ‘Canes haven’t won since. I don’t trust them to win here. Pat Narduzzi isn’t going to win many ‘Coach of the Year’ votes, but I’d probably put him at #2 on my ballot right now (after Colorado’s Mike McIntyre). Pitt is 5-3 on the season, and all three losses have been hotly contested heartbreakers; a team that’s just a couple of plays away from being 7-1 or 8-0 right now. That’s good news for us—if the Panthers were 8-0, they’d be favored here! This tricky offense hasn’t been stopped all year, quite literally. They’ve scored 42, 38, 36, 43, 37, 45 and 36 in their seven games against FBS competition, and those games haven’t come against patsies – they moved the ball up and down the field against the likes of Virginia Tech, Penn State, Oklahoma State and North Carolina. Shutting down this offense requires attention to detail and discipline, two things the Hurricanes don’t have very much of right now. Wrong team favored here….. Take Pitt |
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11-03-16 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +20.5 | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#314) My clients and I cashed a lucky winner with Iowa State last week, as the Cyclones rallied back from three TD’s down in the fourth quarter to cover the number against Kansas State. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up. The numbers have been slightly adjusted to reflect current realities: “Iowa State has shown real signs in Matt Campbell’s first year at the helm, despite their 1-7 record. The Cyclones were good enough to lead undefeated Baylor by two touchdowns in the second half of their last home game, before losing by three. They were good enough to lead Oklahoma State 31-14 in Stillwater the following week – showing real character by doing so -- before a late collapse to lose SU (but not ATS). And they were good enough to lead Texas by a field goal at halftime prior to their bye week before they finally ran out of gas late. Coach Campbell made it very clear following each of those recent losses: ‘close’ and ‘effort’ are not good enough – he expects ‘W’s. And that’s what I’m looking for out of any first year head coach – an attitude and a level of confidence that was there is year’s past.” And this short week genuinely favors the weaker of these two squads. Coach Campbell is used to these Thursday Night affairs from his tenure at Toledo, where he coached the Rockets in 15 non-Saturday games during his four year tenure. His quote: “We’ve had some of these short weeks before. It at least lends you to an idea of how to practice. I think as much of what you install and what you game plan, you know us coaches don’t need sleep….The unfortunate part of it is you’re going against a really good opponent. The fortunate part of that is you hope that quick turnaround forces both teams to have to be simplified in what they do in terms of game planning for Thursday night.” Oklahoma has only played three non-Saturday games in the regular season during his tenure with the Sooners that dates back to 1999. Their last Thursday Night effort was a 41-12 loss at Baylor in 2013, an ugly effort. The Sooners will be missing their top two running backs, Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon tonight, as well as a cluster injury situation on the defensive line with Charles Walker, Marquise Overton, Matt Romar and Matt Dimon all sitting this evening. Coach Stoops: “I’ve never been in a year with this many injuries and different moving parts. We’re in to two or three deep and guys are stepping up and playing hard, playing well, doing what we ask them to do and playing with some good discipline in the way they’re playing and making plays. We’re getting awful thin though, it’s been concerning.” Stoops was already warning his team about this being a ‘trap’ game, with the Sooners huge showdown against Baylor on tap for next week. That’s always a red flag for me – when the coach is talking about it, that means the players are thinking about it. Oklahoma’s defense has been a sieve, ranked #93 in the nation, not the type of stop unit you want to lay three TD’s with on the road. Iowa State has been a feisty competitor all year, and I’m expecting another competitive effort tonight. Take Iowa State. |
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10-29-16 | Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 73 | 59-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Tulsa – Memphis OVER (#161-162) This one’s simple. Tulsa scores points in bunches against EVERYBODY, running former Baylor offensive coordinator Phil Montgomery’s uptempo, spread offense. They’ve hung 43+ five times in seven games. Ohio State did shut them down at the Horseshoe, but Memphis is not Ohio State OR in Columbus! QB Dane Evans and RB D’Angelo Brewer moved the ball up and down the field at Houston, coming a half yard short of a potential upset over a Top 10 team on the road. They hung 42 on Memphis last year and I would legitimately be surprised if the Hurricanes didn’t approach or exceed that number on Saturday. Or course, Memphis hung 66 on the Hurricanes last year and 40 on them the year before that. Yes, without Justin Fuente calling the shots and Paxton Lynch executing the gameplan, the Tigers offensive production has declined this year. But not as much the markets seem to think! Memphis has seen their scoring severely deflated in recent weeks, playing each of their last three games against slower paced and defensive minded foes. But the offense moved the ball at Ole Miss to the tune of 474 yards and 27 first downs against an SEC defense. In their last game on this field against an uptempo foe, they hung 77 on Bowling Green. Expect a torrid pace and bevy of touchdowns, not field goals in what should be a wildly entertaining Saturday Night affair. Take the Over. |
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10-29-16 | Tennessee -13.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 11 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tennessee (#181) It’s already a lost season for the South Carolina Gamecocks. Steve Spurrier most assuredly did NOT leave the cupboards full when he eased himself into retirement, and the noticeable talent gap between South Carolina and the elite teams of the SEC has grown by leaps and bounds. The Gamecocks have given the Vols fits in every recent meeting. In each of the last four years, the final margin for the winning team in this SEC East rivalry has been three points or less. From a ‘recent history’ standpoint, South Carolina is a clear choice here. But this isn’t ‘recent history’; it’s 2016. And there’s an enormous disparity between these two teams this week. Tennessee endured a truly grueling stretch, facing Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama over a four week span. The Vols ran out of gas at the end of that stretch, blasted by the Crimson Tide just before their bye week. From all indications, the Vols come out of the bye much healthier than when they went in. They’re fresh, they’re battle tested and they’re really, really good. Tennessee’s biggest problem this year has been an inability to protect the football, with an SEC second worst 17 giveaways (Kentucky has 18). I don’t expect that to be a continual problem moving forward, especially considering that senior QB Josh Dobbs has thrown nine interceptions already, after only throwing 11 in the previous two years as the start combined! South Carolina’s offense can’t trade points with anybody. Frosh Jake Bentley took over the starting QB job last week against UMass. It wasn’t particularly pretty as the Gamecocks gained less than 400 yards at home against a D that had allowed Louisiana Tech to gain 689 against them AT HOME the previous week. That is neither new nor different for a team that, quite simply, lacks skill position talent and strong line play. The results don’t lie. South Carolina has played five previous SEC games, all against teams that are no better than Tennessee on the defensive side of the football. The Gamecocks produced 13, 14, 10, 13 and 14 points in those five games, showing no explosiveness whatsoever. First year head coach Will Muschamp is under no pressure to win now, building for the future; hence the transition to the frosh QB last week. The Gamecocks have already lost twice by double digit margins on this field. They’ve already benched two quarterbacks. Their leading rusher has 300 yards in seven games, and if you take out his one 75 yard TD carry he’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. And quite frankly, this defense hasn’t faced an offense as good as Tennessee’s yet. Expect a long, ugly evening for the home underdog…… Big Ticket: Take Tennessee. |
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10-29-16 | Washington v. Utah +10.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#200) Count me as a Washington believer – this isn’t a ‘Fade the Huskies because they are a fraud’ type of play. But that doesn’t mean Washington is worthy of anything but a fade this week. The rationale? This is a ‘Fade the Huskies’ situation because Washington is priced to high and this is a real road test for a team that has enjoyed an extraordinarily favorable schedule thusfar, leaving them as an overvalued commodity. To put this pointspread in perspective, Washington was a three point home favorite against Utah last year, which equates to a two TD power rating adjustment for the Huskies. The Huskies lost that game, at home, by double digits. Yes, Washington is better in 2016. But before we anoint them as truly elite, take a good, hard look at who they’ve beaten. At home, the Huskies have knocked off Rutgers, Portland State, Idaho, slumping Stanford and lowly Oregon State. On the road, lowly Arizona took them to OT and the blowout at Oregon comes with an asterisk – the Ducks have allowed 50 points per game in PAC-12 play while losing five straight overall. In other words, to put it succinctly, the Huskies haven’t played ANYBODY yet, leaving their power rating inflated. And make no mistake about it -- Utah is somebody! Utah isn’t 7-1 this season by accident. Their only loss – on the road at Cal – came by five points. The Utes didn’t lose a game by double digits last year either, a team that is as tough and physical as it gets under Kyle Whittingham. In most games, Washington has a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the football, but not against the Utes! And with Utah RB Joe Williams coming out of ‘retirement’ to run for 333 yards and four TD’s at UCLA last week, the Utes have enough offensive firepower to hang tough for 60 minutes on Saturday, with a shot at the outright upset. Take Utah. |
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10-29-16 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +6.5 | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#152) This was a three point game at Kansas State last year. It was a four point game here in Ames in 2014, and a six point game in the previous matchup on this field. In other words, this is not a blowout series; it’s a competitive one, filled with tight games. Kansas State has played three previous road games. They haven’t won any of them, and lost twice by double digits. The only Big 12 road game that K-State has won by a TD or more in the last three seasons came at lowly Kansas at the tail end of an 0-12 season. Bill Snyder’s not looking for style points here, and the Wildcats aren’t built to win by big margins. This game’s got ‘dogfight’ written all over it! Iowa State has shown real signs in Matt Campbell’s first year at the helm, despite their 1-6 record. The Cyclones were good enough to lead undefeated Baylor by two touchdowns in the second half of their last home game, before losing by three. They were good enough to lead Oklahoma State 31-14 in Stillwater the following week – showing real character by doing so -- before a late collapse to lose SU (but not ATS). And they were good enough to lead Texas by a field goal at halftime prior to their bye week before they finally ran out of gas late. Now, the Cyclones are rested and ready off the bye. They’re capable of beating one of the middling teams in the Big 12 at home. Coach Campbell made it very clear following all three of those recent losses: ‘close’ and ‘effort’ are not good enough – he expects ‘W’s. With the +6.5’s that are widely available as I write this, all they have to do is come close to the upset and we’ll cash. Take Iowa State |
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10-22-16 | Washington State v. Arizona State +7.5 | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#364) This is the wrong price range for Washington State in a very hostile road environment. It’s the wrong pointspread range for an Arizona State team that hasn’t lost at home yet this year, let alone losing at home by more than a touchdown. I’m comfortable supporting the Sun Devils as home dogs whether QB Manny Wilkins suits up or not. There’s been one very consistent facet of Mike Leach coached teams, dating back to his tenure at Texas Tech – they have letdowns, not a coach who’s prone to guiding his team to extended winning streaks. In his fifth season at Washington State, the Cougars current four game winning streak is the longest of the Leach era. Only once during his extended tenure at Texas Tech did the Red Raiders win more than four in a row. And when it comes to winning on the road by big margins, the Cougs again have a very limited track record. They won five games away from home last year, none by more than a touchdown. They didn’t win a road game by more than a touchdown the previous year either. They lost at Boise in one road game this year. The other was a rare blowout, at Stanford, facing a Cardinal offense that simply hasn’t been able to move the football. Arizona State doesn’t have that problem, certainly not on a consistent basis. They are 4-0 SU and ATS at home this year, including outright upset wins over Texas Tech and UCLA. Todd Graham’s squad clearly doesn’t match up well against the bigger, more physical PAC-12 foes, losing badly to USC and Colorado. Graham, following last week’s ugly loss at Colorado: “(Colorado) ran the ball on us unlike anybody has ran it in the whole time I've been at Arizona State. No excuses; they kicked our tail. They just blocked our butt. I don't think anybody has done that. It wasn't real complex." Washington State does NOT play that same style…. The latest reports (as of Friday morning) indicate that starting QB Manny Wilkins should suit up behind center for the Sun Devils on Saturday Night. And it’s surely worth noting Arizona State kicker Zane Gonzalez, who has already nailed three 50+ yarders this season. His 92 career made field goals rank #1 in NCAA history. Expect a competitive contest. Take Arizona State. |
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10-22-16 | East Carolina +2.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 19-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take East Carolina (#323) Tommy Tuberville has always been a solid recruiter. In 20 years as a head coach at Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas Tech and Cincinnati, Tuberville hasn’t been short on talent at any point. But since his elite Auburn teams from the mid 00’s, Tuberville’s teams have consistently underachieved to their talent level. In four years at Cinci, Tuberville’s best ATS record was 7-6. In three years at Texas Tech, Tuberville’s teams never notched more than five spread covers in a season. In his final year, the Red Raiders closed out the season on an 0-6 ATS run. At Auburn, in his final season, the Tigers went 1-10 ATS to close out the campaign. Cinci has underachieved ATS this year as well, covering only one pointspread in their first six ballgames. The markets continue to price the Bearcats based on their talent level on hand (pretty good) as opposed to their production on the field (pretty bad). Any hope for salvaging a strong season ended with the Bearcats loss to UConn before their bye week, a 20-9 debacle in which Cinci didn’t score a point after midway through the second quarter. The Bearcats are now 0-3 in AAC Conference play, and despite signing a contract extension last offseason, Tuberville’s squad has all the makings of a ‘tank down the stretch and completely tune out the head coach’ team like his previous final season versions at Auburn and Texas Tech. QB Gunner Kiel is healthy again and he has a big arm, but that talent hasn’t equated with consistent downfield production at any stage in his career. There’s some ‘bet against Cinci as a favorite’ in this Big Ticket recommendation, but more than anything, this is a bet-on spot for the road underdog. East Carolina had a BRUTAL slate to open the campaign, facing NC State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Central Florida and South Florida since their season opener against West Carolina. This meeting with Cinci is actually a modest step DOWN in class for a Pirates squad that is most assuredly battle tested. During the East Carolina bye week, Hurricane Matthew hit the Greenville area. Classes were cancelled. No school and no games led to a full on ‘training camp’ mode of practices last week. Head coach Scottie Montgomery: “A positive of the tragedy like the one we went through was that we had a chance to be around our team a whole lot over the last 5-6 days. We were able to grow our team much closer and hopefully worked out all of the kinks that we tried to start turning since the start of our four-game losing streak.” The Pirates also got healthy during the bye. Their best defender, lineman Demetri McGill has practiced all week and is expected back on the playing field on Saturday. Top two cornerbacks Corey Seargent and Colby Gore are back in the lineup. And QB Philip Nelson, who has been banged up since the upset win over NC State is now back to full health as well. Scottie Montgomery summed it up: “We had a good day of practice on Sunday. Tuesday, we had some more energy but it’s really going well because this is the first time in a long time where we’ve had our leader on offense and our leader on defense to be at practice on Sunday or a Tuesday or a Wednesday….So just having both of our leaders back on both sides of the ball — they push them, they drive them a little bit better when they’re out there. There’s no question about that. To have those guys out there pushing the team, it’s been great. The competition between the offense and defense right now is at such a high level because everyone wants to be the reason why we win.” I’m expecting East Carolina’s ‘A’ game here, and the Pirates ‘A’ game was good enough to beat NC State, a team that was good enough to beat Clemson in Death Valley (if they had hit any one of the three short missed field goals). I’m not convinced that Cinci has an ‘A” game right now; a chemistry challenged team on both sides of the football. Wrong team favored…..Big Ticket: Take East Carolina. |
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10-22-16 | Wisconsin -3.5 v. Iowa | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin (#333) Let’s me start with a little strength of schedule analysis. Wisconsin beat LSU, took Ohio State to overtime and hung tough in Ann Arbor against Michigan, acquitting themselves quite well against a trio of Top 10 caliber squads. This team has proven their mettle when stepping up in class. Iowa has no such proof. Since their 12-0 start last year, the Hawkeyes have failed their only tests – losing to Michigan State and Stanford down the stretch by a combined 61-29 score. So far this season the Hawkeyes toughest competition has been Minnesota and Northwestern, not exactly LSU, Michigan or Ohio State. Even against that level of competition, the Hawkeyes have struggled. They barely beat Minnesota with the Gophers missing their three year starter at QB. And they lost at home to Northwestern, giving up 38 points to the only decent offense they’ve faced all season. Even against lesser competition, there are some MAJOR red flags showing for Iowa. QB CJ Beathard hasn’t had time to throw, taking 18 sacks already, tied for #92 in the country. Beathard isn’t loaded with playmaking weapons on the outside either – when Iowa falls behind, they’re not built to battle back. There are legitimate questions about Wisconsin’s mental state coming off their overtime loss to Ohio State. These quotes answer the question of the Badgers preparation level mentally following that Buckeyes loss. RB Corey Clement, asked how long it would take the Ohio State loss to go away: “As soon as I leave this room (post-game locker room). That’s when it ends and we turn the page. Now we look forward to Iowa and to try to win out and get to the Big 10 championship.” Linebacker TJ Watt: “That is the mentality. You always keep faith alive and know we’re going to do our job and get things done.” Defensive back Sojourn Shelton: “To be where we want to be we’ve got to win out.” It’s surely worth noting that these are PLAYER quotes, not coaches quotes. I expect Wisconsin to bring their ‘A’ game. Last year, Iowa stole one in Madison, outgained by more than 100 yards in a game that Clement missed, thanks to a +2 turnover margin, red zone failures and a key missed field goal. Look for the Badgers to get their payback here against a Hawkeyes squad that doesn’t appear ready for their first legitimate ‘step-up-in-class’ game of the season. Take Wisconsin. |
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10-20-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech -4 | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 79 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#304) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner betting against Miami as a favorite last week. And I have no hesitation getting right back to the betting window fading the slumping Hurricanes again on Thursday Night in Blacksburg. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up: ‘The Hurricanes are coming off a devastating one point loss to their arch rivals from Florida State, losing a fiercely contested, ultra-physical game thanks to a blocked extra point in the final minutes. These quotes tell me already that the team is thinking about a hangover effect. Offensive lineman Nick Linder: “There can’t be any hangover. We’ve got to run the table.” Defensive end Demetrius Jackson: “We can’t mope because we can control our own destiny.” Those are ‘red flag’ quotes, telling us that the team is already worried about their own fragile mental state. ‘Twice in the last three years, Miami has lost to Florida State, then gone on to lose again as favorites the following week. They’re all banged up following the Florida State loss, particularly on the offensive line – QB Brad Kaaya was under relentless pressure last week. Head coach Mark Richt, talking about his roster depth earlier this week: “Overall, we’re thin.” Those offensive line woes have been on full display – the ‘Canes have been held to 19 and 13 points over the last two weeks. And head coach Mark Richt sure sounds like a guy who’s making excuses already for a tough Thursday Night travel spot: “When I was coaching at Georgia our president kind of refused to ever play on a Thursday night, home or away. If there was a home game because it was an on-campus stadium then you’d probably have to shut down school for sure Thursday and Friday, maybe even Wednesday to get prepared. … So it’s a new experience for me.” Virginia Tech laid an egg in a clear flat spot on their schedule at Syracuse last Saturday, but make no mistake about it – the Hokies are no joke in Justin Fuentes first year on the job, just the way that Memphis was no joke in Fuentes last year with the Tigers in 2015. QB Jerod Evans ranks among the Top 10 QB’s in the country statistically, and the Hokies continued emphasis on special teams is not something that Miami shares. And after losing by double digits to the Canes in each of the last two seasons; this year Virginia Tech is the superior squad, primed for payback. Take Virginia Tech |
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10-15-16 | Temple v. Central Florida OVER 52.5 | 26-25 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Central Florida – Temple OVER (#129-130) My clients and I have cashed a couple of winning bets in UCF games already, including an Over cash at Michigan and a UCF minus the points cash at Florida International. And while I’m marginally tempted to lay the points with Scott Frost’s Knights this week, the Over appears to be a superior wager. Here is Frost’s quote, heading into the season: “One of the things that drew me to the job is I knew I could run a version of our offense that was practically identical to Oregon's because we can recruit that type of player here. I don't think you could run Oregon's offense at Wisconsin; I don't know if you would get enough guys that can run well enough to do it. In Orlando, Florida, there's fast guys in high schools in every direction in close proximity that are already running systems in high school that are similar to this and should want to play in it.” UCF has not run their offense at a breakneck pace in either of their last two games. They were down to their third string QB at East Carolina, forcing a slowdown. And they were so far ahead of Florida International by halftime, they just grinded the clock late. Then last week, they had an unscheduled bye due to Hurricane Matthew. The markets are looking at UCF and saying ‘Their pace isn’t so fast, and they’re out of rhythm after last week’s impromptu bye.’ And that gives us the price point we need to strike on this Over! UCF is healthy at QB again, with top two QB’s Justin Holman and McKenzie Milton both back in practice all week. And their gameplan is clearly going to be ‘push the pace and test Temple deep’. UCF Offensive Coordinator Troy Walters: “They're a good run stopping defense and we have to make sure we're able to throw the ball and move the ball down the field.” More Walters, talking about his QB’s: “Justin came in and got healthy, and I think we're really close to having everybody up and ready to go." Senior receiver Taylor Oldham: “Every practice we prepare for a breakout game, but we can only do what's within our control and do what coach asks us to do. It'll come. I really feel that." Temple has cashed four Over bets in their last four games; a team still totaled like they were last year’s stodgy squad – all running and defense. That’s not the case in 2016! QB PJ Walker threw for more than 440 yards at Memphis last week; a career high for a seasoned senior starter. Their top three backs are averaging better than five yards per carry, but the Owls defense – particularly their secondary – is way down from last year. And with the markets moving this total down from the opener, we can expect this Under-the-Radar Owls run of Overs to continue for at least one more week. Take the OVER. |
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10-15-16 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +7.5 | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Arkansas (#178) Yes, Ole Miss is off a bye, while Arkansas just got whipped at home by Alabama last week, giving the ‘freshness’ edge to the road favorite. But that’s about the only real edge the Rebels have against the Hogs in a game that has all the makings of a ‘down-to-the-wire’ contest, just like last year’s epic 53-52 overtime thriller. It’s worth noting that Ole Miss was -10 in that game. The Rebels were also -3 the previous year against Arkansas, a game they lost 30-0. In fact, Ole Miss hasn’t won a game in Fayetteville by more than three points in more than a decade (as far back as I looked), making this pointspread stand out like a sore thumb. Ole Miss has yet to play a true road game this year. They lost twice by double digit margins as road favorites last year; not a trustworthy team in hostile environs. The only time they left Oxford previously this season was a neutral site game against Florida State back on September 5th. Florida State has turned out to be something of a disappointment, but they rolled Mississippi, erasing a 28-6 deficit in the process. That wasn’t the only lead Ole Miss has blown this year! They were up 24-3 against Alabama, a game they ended up trailing 48-30 before a couple of late garbage time scores. When teams punch Ole Miss, the Rebels have consistently had a hard time punching back, not a team that tends to respond well to adversity. Arkansas has a reputation in the Brett Bielema era of being a pure smashmouth, run first squad. Part of that is true this year – the Razorbacks can certainly play some power football in the trenches – their top two backs are averaging close to six yards per carry between them, despite having faced TCU, A&M and Alabama already. But the key to this bet is Hogs junior QB Austin Allen, who has superseded his older brother in his first year as the starter. Allen is averaging 8.7 yards per pass, with a 15-5 TD-INT ratio and a 64% completion rate. He threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns against Alabama last week, but he threw three of his five interceptions on the year in that ballgame. No shame in that – Alabama’s defense is loaded with future NFL players. Arkansas has seven different receivers who have caught a 25+ yard pass this year, and their top three guys have at least four touchdown catches each. The markets are down on Arkansas right now after ‘Bama whipped them last week on the heels of a three TD loss to Texas A&M in their previous ‘step-up’ game. But make no mistake about it – that A&M final score was as misleading as it gets. The game was tied at 17-17 late in the third quarter. Arkansas put together a 15 play, 89 yard drive, but they were stuffed at 4th and goal from the 1 yard line. Two plays later, A&M hit a 92 yard TD strike and the rout was on. Had Arkansas gotten that single yard, they might well have won that game in SU fashion. Instead, they’re being priced like a tea m that can’t step up in class. I think they can, and I’m willing to back that opinion with my money. Take Arkansas. |
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10-15-16 | North Carolina +7 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take North Carolina (#139) This is a pure ‘bet-on’ vs. a pure ‘bet-against’ this week. With the bet-on team catching a full touchdown, I have no hesitation releasing the Tar Heels as a Big Ticket worthy wager! Let’s start with Miami as a ‘bet-against’ favorite. The Hurricanes are coming off a devastating one point loss to their arch rivals from Florida State, losing a fiercely contested, ultra-physical game thanks to a blocked extra point in the final minutes. These quotes tell me already that the team is thinking about a hangover effect. Offensive lineman Nick Linder: “There can’t be any hangover. We’ve got to run the table.” Defensive end Demetrius Jackson: “We can’t mope because we can control our own destiny.” Those are ‘red flag’ quotes, telling us that the team is already worried about their own fragile mental state. Twice in the last three years, Miami has lost to Florida State, then gone on to lose again as favorites the following week. They’re all banged up following the Florida State loss, particularly on the offensive line – QB Brad Kaaya was under relentless pressure last week. Head coach Mark Richt, talking about his roster depth earlier this week: “Overall, we’re thin.” Miami continues to have penalty problems, flagged another ten times for 130 yards last week. They are not battle tested – Florida State was their first true ‘step-up-in-class’ game. That stands in sharp contrast to North Carolina, who has already faced Georgia, Pitt, Virginia Tech and Florida State. And Miami’s defense, in particular, hasn’t seen anything like the Tar Heels uptempo attack here in 2016. Hurricanes defensive coordinator Manny Diaz is making excuses already: “The biggest challenge is their tempo. A lot of their plays have three options. That puts stress all over your defense…. The first thing is getting lined up. Their tempo will be as fast as anything that we've seen this year. You have to be able to get the plays in quickly so they're not spending all their time looking at me.” North Carolina got Hurricane Matthew’d last week in their ugly 34-3 home loss to Virginia Tech. Tar Heels head coach Larry Fedora didn’t change his gameplan due to the weather, and it cost his team. QB Mitch Trubisky was 13-33 for 58 yards and two interceptions. His quote: “I just couldn’t put what I wanted on it. It is what it is. The ball was heavier than it usually is.” This is an elite QB prospect who has STILL completed more than 70% of his passes this year, with a 13-0 TD-INT ratio prior to last week. Trubisky guided the Tar Heels down the field in the waning seconds to earn wins against both Florida State and Pitt the prior two weeks – a guy with a proven track record of accomplishment against quality defenses in hostile environments. Fedora’s offense confused the bleep out of Miami last year in a 59-21 wipeout, and the Tar Heels have only one loss to the Hurricanes by more than six points in the Fedora era at Chapel Hill. No surprise here if North Carolina emerges with the SU victory, not just the ATS cover. Big Ticket: Take North Carolina. |
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10-15-16 | Kansas State +13.5 v. Oklahoma | 17-38 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Kansas State (#145) I’m always interested in backing Bill Snyder in an underdog role; a role that he’s embraced throughout his long term tenure in Manhattan. In his last eight years with Kansas State, Snyder is 27-12-1 ATS when catching points at home or on the highway, a consistent track record of success. Snyder did not cash a winning bet for his backers as an underdog in the Wildcats battle with the Sooners last year. In fact, it was the ugliest loss of the modern era for K-State football, a 55-0 wipeout; a game that was 42-0 22 seconds into the second half before Bob Stoops emptied his bench. There’s no comparison between last year’s K-State squad and this year’s version – the team was positively crippled with injuries by the end of September last year, something that’s not the case here in 2016. And now we’ve got Snyder is his preferred underdog role in a shutout revenge situation. That’s ‘bet-on’ in my world! Oklahoma has bounced back strong off every recent loss to Texas. Last year’s game against Kansas State came the week after a loss to their arch-rivals as -16 point favorites, and the Sooners came out firing! But when the Sooners are coming off a win over Texas like the one they earned last week, their results the following week aren’t quite as pretty, to put it mildly. Look no further than K-State’s last visit to Norman, a 31-30 Wildcats upset win as TD favorites. In fact, K-State has pulled the outright upset as big dogs on each of their last two visits to Norman, winning 24-19 here as 15.5 point underdogs the previous meeting. Oklahoma has been an overvalued commodity from Day 1 this year, just 1-4 ATS in their first five games. The lone pointspread cover came in a six point win over TCU; a game where the Sooner defense couldn’t hold a 25 point fourth quarter lead. This is a defense that can’t get key stops – the Sooners have allowed 40+ in each of their last three contests. There’s a reason this line hasn’t gone (and probably won’t get to) -14. Every time the markets approach that -14 number, sharp $$ comes in to drive it back down. Wildcats are live dogs here! Take Kansas State. |
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10-14-16 | Mississippi State v. BYU -7 | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 56 h 4 m | Show | |
Take BYU (#112) This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. BYU lost three consecutive heartbreakers against quality foes, losing to Utah, UCLA and West Virginia by a combined seven points. But those early season struggles against quality foes have paid real dividends, as the Cougars have responded with back-2-back wins, including last week’s dominant showing at Michigan State. This quote from Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio is surely worth noting: “As the game continued to go on, BYU seemed to get a little stronger.” When you run for 264 yards in East Lansing and close out the Spartans on a 31-7 run, you’re clearly ‘getting stronger’. Cougars senior QB Taysom Hill, following the victory: "I am definitely not surprised. I don't think anybody on our team is surprised. We knew we were very capable of coming in and playing the way that we did and beating a really good football team. … It has given us a lot of confidence moving forward, and we will continue to build off this win…..Our offensive line has really set the tone, set the stage for what we have been able to do the past couple of weeks. Looking at the stat line here — we had no sacks, we rushed for [260] yards and any time you do that, you are going to be successful. Our guys played well and gave us the opportunity to put the numbers that we did." Mississippi State doesn’t make many trips to the Wasatch Mountains of Utah on a short week – it’s an awkward non-conference spot for the road team, compared to a huge ‘SEC opponent is coming to town’ spot for the home team. And Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs are reeling right now. They trailed 35-0 at home at halftime vs. Auburn last week, falling to 2-3 in the post Dak Prescott era, a team that is every bit as young defensively as they are on the offensive side of the football. In their last road game, the Bulldogs allowed 35 at lowly UMass despite three Minutemen interceptions, never sniffing a spread cover. There’s a physical AND a mental class difference between these two teams this week, a class difference that I expect BYU to exploit from start to finish. Take BYU. |
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10-08-16 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State -7 | 38-44 | Loss | -118 | 77 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Kansas State (#340) In most recent seasons, Kansas State has done an excellent job of shutting down Texas Tech’s high octane offense. K –State beat the Red Raiders 55-24 in 2012, 49-26 in 2013, and 45-13 in 2014, completely stifling Texas Tech spread offense each time. Then came last year. The Red Raiders feasted on a banged up Wildcats secondary, exploding for 658 total yards in a 59-44 wipeout, a bad loss at the end of a very disappointing season for Bill Snyder’s squad. K- State is looking for payback here, plain and simple, and they’re quite capable of accomplishing that task against a team they’ve beaten by 31 and 32 points on their last two visits to Manhattan. Make no mistake about it – the Texas Tech defense cannot be trusted to get stops against anybody. The results don’t lie. Texas Tech has allowed 42+ 16 times in their last 27 games. The only two decent offenses they’ve faced thusfar – Arizona State and Louisiana Tech – moved the ball at will against the Red Raiders stop unit, hanging 68 and 45 on them, with Texas Tech allowing more than 250 yards on the ground and more than 300 through the air in both contests. Kansas State spent all week working on their red zone offense after settling for three short field goals in a ‘blown lead’ loss at West Virginia last Saturday. Expect the Wildcats to march up and down the field here – compared to the Stanford or West Virginia defenses, Texas Tech’s stop unit pales in comparison. Let’s not forget that in two previous ‘step down in class’ home games, the Wildcats scored 98 points in six quarters (the game against SE Missouri got called at halftime). Texas Tech isn’t likely to have their starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes here. Backup Nic Shimonek isn’t a dual threat like Mahomes, lacking his running ability. Shimonek looked great coming off the bench at home against lowly Kansas last week, but his first road start against a superior foe isn’t primed to play out nearly as well….Take Kansas State. |
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10-08-16 | Marshall -10 v. North Texas | 21-38 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Marshall (#391) This game is a complete mismatch being priced as a relatively competitive contest. Marshall’s good. They won 10 games last year on the heels of a 13-1 season in 2014 and another 10 win campaign in 2013. The Thundering Herd beat North Texas by 17 last year in a relative ‘flat’ spot, but it wasn’t really that close – they led 24-3 at halftime and cruised to victory, spending the second half burning clock. But this year, Marshall has something to prove in their C-USA opener. They’ve lost three straight – an embarrassing home loss to Akron in which their special teams fell apart, then losses in step-up games to Louisville and Pitt over the past two weeks. But something VERY positive happened in the Pitt game last week. Marshall got wiped out early, trailing 27-0 at halftime. They didn’t quit following a rousing halftime tirade, cutting the lead to three with four minutes remaining before a late Panthers score followed by a pick six on the final play of the game made the final margin look far worse than it should have. So, this is no ‘fat and happy’ Marshall stepping down in class. This is a ‘hungry with something to prove’ Marshall trying to wipe out the taste of those three straight losses and build upon the momentum they showed after halftime last week. Senior offensive tackle Clint Van Horn, talking about the second half comeback at Pitt: “It was more just being consistent. "I feel like we've done a pretty good job in a lot of our games of being physical and putting guys on the ground, getting knockdowns in the pass and the run, but I feel like we as an offensive line really were able to put more of those plays together consistently and the backs really fed off of it." While Marshall is a good team with something to prove, North Texas is a bad team that isn’t capable of trading points with anybody right now in the first year of the Seth Littrell program re-boot. The Mean Green have a grand total of four wins against FBS competition over the past three seasons, and every team they’ve been good enough to beat has been a fellow bottom feeder. Twice in the last three games, North Texas has been held to five rushing yards or less. Those rushing numbers are deflated because of poor pass protection – North Texas has taken a whopping 21 sacks already, worst in C-USA. Does this sound like a confident first year head coach to you? Littrell, following last week’s home loss to Middle Tennessee State. “It wasn’t one position group on offense; it was every position group…. We just didn’t run the ball well at all. We couldn’t move those guys up front much. The games that we have won, we have run the football. We have to continue to do that. We are inconsistent at every position….. The more mistakes you make, they start mounting on each other. Then you start losing momentum and start pressing and getting stressed. It’s hard to fight back from that.” For a team that can’t get off the field on third downs (46% conversions allowed), playing without their starting left tackle Garret Gunter, coming off a game in which they had eight ‘three-and-outs’ on offense, I’m expecting another rough showing here. Take Marshall. |
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10-08-16 | BYU v. Michigan State -6 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#324) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. We’ve got a clear bet-on’ facing a clear ‘bet-against’ in a price range where we can lay less than a TD with the superior team. That, to me, makes Sparty a no-brainer to support on Saturday. Michigan State has lost two in a row. They’ve had a grand total of one three game losing streak since Mark D’Antonio’s second year on the job , and even in that instance, two of the three losses came by a field goal or less, competitive defeats. This isn’t a coach, a team or a program primed to suffer significant skids. Michigan State’s offense struggled against Wisconsin two weeks ago, but the Badgers defense certainly showed well again last week at Michigan, an elite stop unit. Last week, the Spartans offense struggled again at Indiana, but the betting markets aren’t recognizing Indiana’s VASTLY improved defense this year. Sparty will be just fine on offense. We saw what they are capable of against a lesser stop unit when they beat Notre Dame in South Bend. While it’s ‘circle the wagons’ time for Michigan State, it’s ‘run out of gas’ time for BYU. No team in the country has gone through a wilder first five weeks of the season than these cardiac kids. In five weeks without a bye, they had a two point last minute win at Arizona, a one point last minute loss to Utah, a three point last minute loss to UCLA, a wild, back-and-forth late loss by three to West Virginia and a crazy 55-53 shootout last Friday at home against Toledo. That’s five games in five weeks (without a bye) that have all been decided by three points or less. Now BYU has to fly back across the country to East Lansing, with the ‘lookahead ‘ excitement of an SEC foe (Mississippi State) coming to Provo next week. And this matchup is a nightmare for the BYU offense, a team that needs to feed Jamaal Williams (6.5 yards per carry, 703 rushing yards and 8 TD’s). When Williams can’t find room to run, QB Taysom Hill has struggled to move the offense as a pocket passer. Sparty’s run defense is no joke, and their sense of urgency is far greater than BYU’s sense of urgency this week. Expect a relatively comfortable win for the home favorite. Take Michigan State. |
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10-08-16 | Maryland -1 v. Penn State | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 14 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Maryland (#327) Penn State’s defense is a disaster area right now, most notably at linebacker. Over the last three weeks the Nittany Lions have lost every starter at that position due to injuries, with SEVEN LB’s hurt in all. Head coach James Franklin: "Our linebacker situation, I don't know if I've ever seen anything like it. We're just going to have to keep moving guys. Right now, we're going to have a hard time practicing with the number of guys that we have, so we may have to continue moving guys, different positions; I don't know if I've ever seen anything like this before….. We were hopeful we were going to have good news this week but we had a setback.” This is clearly a problem for a team that doesn’t have an explosive offense; held to a modest 39 points and 650 yards in their first two Big 10 games. And it’s a major matchup problem for these emerging Terrapins, who rushed for 400 yards last week while dismantling Purdue. Maryland has rushed for more than 200 yards in every game, with first year head coach DJ Durkin effectively utilizing the talent on hand, talent that consistently underachieved throughout the Randy Edsall era. And with fifth year senior Perry Hills behind center, the Terps are averaging more than 43 points per game through the first month of the season. DJ Durkin’s quote: “What he (Hills) showed us (in camp) is what everyone is seeing right now. A guy that is really confident about what he’s doing.” Last year’s meeting was a 31-30 thriller won by Penn State, thanks to a +2 turnover margin. This year, the Terps have committed one turnover or less in three of their four games, while Penn State’s defense lacks the playmakers to force turnovers in bunches right now. In this emerging Big 10 rivalry, the revenge angle isn’t huge, but it is one more factor pointing in Maryland’s direction. Maryland is 4-0 while missing out on all the hype and media attention that creates betting bandwagons – the price to support this emerging squad is still very reasonable, even after an early week line move that made them short road favorites. The Terps are a team trending upwards; the Nittany Lions are a team that may well be looking for a new coach come late November. I’m not expecting this one to be particularly close by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. Big Ticket: Take Maryland. |
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10-07-16 | Boise State v. New Mexico +17 | 49-21 | Loss | -104 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
Take New Mexico (#316) There’s a lot being said about the ‘revenge’ angle for Boise State here, after New Mexico shocked the Broncos with a SU win on the Smurf Turf in Boise last year, one of the stranger games to dissect in retrospect. Boise ran 115 plays in that contest, and notched 40 first downs, compared to 52 plays and 11 first downs for New Mexico. But the Broncos managed only one TD on six red zone possessions, committing two turnovers, missing one of their two field goals and getting stopped on downs. The Lobos went 0-10 on third downs, but they broke off a handful of explosive play: a 74-yard run and passes of 42, 46 and 81 yards. And Boise is most assuredly vulnerable to those same type of big plays here. Broncos defensive coordinator Andy Avalos: “The pass plays are a result of attacking in the run game. The (defensive backs) have to make sure they’re playing with great eye control. That’s very difficult on them.” In fact, when we look at Boise’s results in recent years against triple option teams like New Mexico, we see a track record of consistent failure. My numbers show an 0-8 ATS run for the Broncos against teams like New Mexico – the Lobos hung 49 on them the previous year, a wire-2-wire spread cover. And it’s surely worth noting that New Mexico committed 16 penalties for 135 yards compared to only four for Boise, yet they STILL notched the SU road win as 31 point road underdogs. New Mexico’s defense got torched by San Jose State last week, and head coach Bob Davie was not amused. “Unless you guys (the media) see something different, I see that we’re a pretty good team. But until we play like we’re an experienced defense, all we’re gonna be is a pretty good team that has a hard time winning each week. I’m being dead honest, and we have to get that solved.” More Davie: “Our players are disappointed, our coaches are disappointed. Because we’re better than that. We should be better than that. It’s on to the next one now. I’m very appreciative that we won (Saturday). I know our problems are solvable.” Lobos safety Daniel Henry, talking about last year’s game against the Broncos: “Watching the film last year, there were a couple plays we wish we could have back. We’re excited to play every team, but Boise is that team every team is shooting for. ... Everyone knows in the conference, BSU is the team you have to beat. This is a big game for us.” Boise has been a consistent moneyloser so far this season – their last pointspread cover came on opening day at a very disappointing Louisiana-Lafayette squad. Bryan Harsin’s offense isn’t clicking on all cylinders, their defense has been spotty, and this pointspread is out of whack with Boise’s current reality – a good team, but nowhere near as good as the elite Broncos squads of the Chris Peterson era. Take New Mexico. |
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10-02-16 | Nevada v. Hawaii +4.5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 82 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Hawaii (#220) From a ‘spot’ standpoint, it doesn’t get any better than this for the home underdog. Nevada is making their third long trip in the last four weeks, after playing at Purdue last week on the heels of a previous Indiana trip to play in South Bend against Notre Dame. And the very limited Wolfpack offense – QB Tyler Stewart has only thrown for 640 yards in four games, with RB James Butler their primary offensive weapon – has been held under 300 yards in both previous road tilts, scoring 14 or less each time. Last week, Purdue didn’t punt, but four turnovers allowed Nevada to hang around with short fields against a lesser tier defense. The Wolfpack still couldn’t move the ball with any consistency. Multiple reports out of Reno have head coach Brian Polian on the hotseat, a guy who hasn’t been able to pick up where Chris Ault left off, when the Wolfpack were winning eight or nine games on a yearly basis. And from multiple reports out of Reno, even in his fourth year on the job, Polian isn’t much of an X’s and O’s guy, or a particularly good motivator. He got the job because his daddy was a good NFL talent evaluator which the local braintrusts thought would be good for recruiting, not because he’s an innovative or creative coaching mind. Nevada might own the recent series history between these two teams, but they’re likely to be in a dogfight this week against a rested and ready Hawaii team coming off their bye. The Warriors hung 31 on Cal in their opener, moving the football surprisingly well against a PAC-12 defense. They won their last home game, hanging 41 on Tennessee-Martin. And they hung tough at Arizona following a slow start, gaining 429 yards and 25 first downs in a 28 point outburst on the road against another PAC-12 stop unit. A Nevada team that couldn’t stop Purdue last week won’t have a much easier time this week. Hawaii’s first year head coach Nick Rolovich found his quarterback in the Arizona game, benching ineffective senior Ikaika Woolsey for sophomore JUCO transfer Dru Brown. Rolovich – a former collegiate QB right here in Honolulu – has had two weeks to coach him up. Rolovich: “He got better, and better, and better within the offense. He’s not a real outgoing personality so I think it took a little bit longer for the guys to get to know him. But, all they see is how he works.” And Brown is a guy that the Nevada coaching staff has very limited film on – don’t be shocked if Rolovich has a few tricks up his sleeve. The Warriors went 0-8 in conference play last year. With 15 starters back from that team, there’s been considerable emphasis ensuring that doesn’t happen again in 2015. Frankly, I’m expecting the outright upset, but taking more than a field goal is too attractive to pass up. Take Hawaii. |
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10-01-16 | Marshall v. Pittsburgh OVER 68 | 27-43 | Win | 100 | 77 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Marshall – Pittsburgh OVER (#113-114) I’m going to ride this Pitt Over trend for at least another week. Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up last week supporting the Panthers Over the total, their third consecutive game that got into the 70’s or higher. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “For a team with mediocre (at best) QB play who doesn’t run an uptempo system, the Panthers are about as strong an ‘Over’ team as you’ll find. Why? Two key reasons, both of which should come into play here. “First, the Panthers secondary is an absolute mess right now. Oklahoma State had ten plays of more than 20 yards last week, and third year QB starter Mason Rudolph set his career high in passing yards against them. The previous week, Pitt couldn’t hold a lead against Penn State, allowing soph QB Trace McSorley to light them up for 331 yards and 38 points in his first career road start. “Head coach Pat Narduzzi’s quote talking about his struggling young secondary doesn’t exactly reek of confidence: “They’ve got to understand and have to have faith and belief in what we’re doing. They’ve got to understand that it works when you do it right and it doesn’t work when you’re not doing it right. It’s either your way or our way; which one are you going to do? If you continue to do it your way, then we’re going to have problems. If you do it our way, you’ve got a chance.” “But Pitt has a fighting chance, even against good passing teams, because their run game is so unique, built to create big play chances out of the backfield. RB James Connor showed real burst last week, the former ACC Offensive Player of the Year in 2014. Speedster Quadree Henderson is a big play waiting to happen. Five different rushers have gained at least 20 yards on a single carry already.” Pitt should pick up yardage in chunks against an undersized Marshall front seven on defense that isn’t poised to stop big, physical ground games, and their red zone execution has been excellent. Marshall should have starting QB Chase Litton back on the field this week after missing the Louisville game with a concussion. Marshall’s two previous games against FBS competition have gotten into the 80’s, both flying Over with plenty of room to spare. Expect more of the same on Saturday. Take the Over. |
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10-01-16 | Missouri v. LSU -13 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 77 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take LSU (#204) Ed Orgeron has been in this situation before. Orgeron took over for a fired Lane Kiffin at USC, and guided the Trojans to a 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS mark following that early season firing. The Trojans played hard for him, and they were consistently undervalued, especially early in his tenure: 5-1 ATS in his first six games. This is a remarkably similar situation with one key change. USC in 2013, like LSU in 2016, was stockpiled with NFL caliber talent; a legit Top 10 squad. One unit has been working just fine – the defense. In the Tigers two losses – both tight competitive contests – their defense allowed a grand total of one touchdown. Coordinator Dave Aranda was retained after the coaching change, the right move to make. This defense is primed to shut Missouri’s limited attack down. The Tigers new offense couldn’t find the end zone in their lone previous road tilt at West Virginia. Their two ‘offensive outburst’ games in the last three weeks came at home against the likes of Eastern Michigan and Delaware State, not exactly loaded with LSU’s caliber of defensive talent. And it’s surely worth noting that sophomore QB Drew Lock completed less than 40% of his passes on the road last year and just 45% against the Mountaineers in his lone previous road start this year, a QB with ZERO track record of success on the highway. Orgeron, not the school administrators, made the decision to dump Cam Cameron, who’s offense just wasn’t working in the SEC. That’s a HUGE bonus, what turns this from a standard sized wager into a Big Ticket sized wager. First and foremost, Missouri has no idea what LSU is going to run on offense this week, without a lick of game film for their players and coaches to study. Orgeron’s guy is Steve Ensminger, who has been an offensive coordinator at Texas A&M and at Clemson before – he’s no rookie, and from all indications, the players are VERY excited to open up the offense this week. Here’s a quote from the local beat writer “The biggest thing you see with this team is they seem….more energized with the hiring of Ed Orgeron. Their practices are a little bit shorter, so they won’t be as tired come game time. They spend a lot more time in the film room, and from the practice we went to [on Monday], they were a little bit more loose with a lot more music. A lot of players were telling us that before, there was no music and one guy who mainly played music before practice and before games. But now, the whole team is playing music and dancing.” This is EXACTLY what LSU needed to get going – they’re having fun this week, and they’ve got something to prove. Missouri is the optimal opponent for them to face; a second tier SEC team that’s never made the trip to play in Baton Rouge on a Saturday Night before. The Tigers scored 13, 6, 3 and 3 points in their four SEC road games last year and managed only 11 in their lone road game this year. This will be the toughest defense they face. No surprise here if this one turns into a rout before halftime…… Big Ticket: Take LSU |
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10-01-16 | Minnesota v. Penn State OVER 55.5 | 26-29 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – Penn State OVER (#119-120) We don’t think of Minnesota or Penn State as ‘Over’ teams. The Gophers have a run heavy plodding offense with a mediocre (at best) quarterback and a dearth of skill position speed. Penn State entered the season with 19 of the 24 games in the James Franklin era producing 50 points or less, anything BUT an Over team. They didn’t have a single posted total higher than 54 in either of those two seasons. That was then, this is now. The long term track record for both of these squads has this total artificially deflated. Penn State has gone uptempo this year under new offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead, hanging 34+ in every game not against Michigan’s defense. QB Trace McSorely is a better fit for this offense than the departed Christian Hackenburg, and RB Saquon Barkley is averaging just shy of five yards per carry. Minnesota’s defense isn’t loaded with quality depth or athleticism, and I’m expecting Penn State’s tempo to wear them down by the second half. But Penn State’s defense is a disaster area right now, most notably at linebacker. At practice on Tuesday, the Nittany Lions had a grand total of four healthy scholarship LB’s. Coach Franklin’s quote doesn’t exactly reek of confidence, especially with one of his healthy bodies at LB, Brandon Smith, suspended for the first half following a targeting penalty: "Our linebacker situation, I don't know if I've ever seen anything like it. We're just going to have to keep moving guys. Right now, we're going to have a hard time practicing with the number of guys that we have, so we may have to continue moving guys, different positions; I don't know if I've ever seen anything like this before. " The Gophers have an injury list an arm’s length long on the defensive side of the football, with all three units suffering significant injury or suspension concerns. This is no elite defense even when healthy, but the offense has hung 30+ in three straight weeks. No surprise here if the loser of this game gets four touchdowns or more. Take the Over. |
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10-01-16 | Wisconsin v. Michigan -10.5 | 7-14 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#161) Don’t be fooled for a minute by Wisconsin’s two big upset wins this year. Yes, the Badgers knocked off LSU – the same LSU team that just fired their coach and offensive coordinator in the midst of a clusterf*** first month of the season. It’s worth noting that game was played at Lambeau Field, a HUGE motivator for the Wisconsin kids. And yes, Wisconsin won 30-6 in East Lansing last week, blowing out Michigan State. But the Badgers had one TD drive longer than 28 yards in that game. The Spartans basically handed the Badgers three TD’s in that game, making things VERY easy for the road underdog as they were able to play from ahead, as opposed to asking their young QB Alex Hornibrook to create some offense in a ‘come-from-behind’ type situation. To make matters worse for Wisconsin, their running game isn’t working. Despite a dominant scoreboard against the Spartans, with the exception of one 22 yard scamper from RB Corey Coleman, he averaged just 1.5 yards per carry on his other 22 attempts. Michigan’s defense has notched 17 sacks already this year, and they’ve allowed less than 50% completions. If (when) Wisconsin falls behind here, they’ll be in a world of hurt trying to rally behind a QB with only one previous career start under his belt. Michigan isn’t exactly giving away touchdowns on offense this year. The Wolverines attack will be – by FAR – the best offense that the Badgers defense has faced. QB Wilson Speight has a 9-1 TD-INT ratio and four different backs have at least 145 rushing yards. The Wolverines have hung 63, 51, 45 and 49 points in their first four games, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if their offensive onslaught continues against a Badgers defense that really doesn’t have much NFL caliber talent here in 2016. But the key here in Michigan’s defense against Hornibrook. The Wolverines are scoring a defensive or special teams TD nearly every week. This stop unit IS loaded with NFL caliber talent, and nobody has moved the football against them consistently all year. The Wolverines are in a great rhythm at home, playing their fifth straight game at the Big House in Ann Arbor. They’re worth riding here against a Badgers team that isn’t suited to play well from behind. Take Michigan. |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 55 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#110) Everybody around the country knows how good Stanford is; a team that has won 11 games or more five times in the last six seasons, with multiple Top 5 finishes during that span. Washington, on the other hand, has tumbled from elite status over the past two decades. The Huskies last 10+ win season came back in 2000 with Rick Neuheisel as head coach, before Keith Gilberson, Ty Willingham and Steve Sarkisian proved to be lousy hires. Chris Peterson was not a lousy hire. This is the best Huskies team since Neuheisel’s 2000 squad. Vegas knows it – there’s a reason that Washington is chalk here against a Cardinal team that has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams, including a 17 point beating last year. Even with David Shaw’s track record as an underdog: 8-1 ATS in nine tries since the start of the 2011 campaign, the markets are making a clear statement that Washington is the better team this year. I concur. Don’t be fooled by the final score of Stanford’s win at UCLA last week. The Cardinal trailed for the first 59+ minutes of that game, with QB Ryan Burns struggling mightily in his first road start. Burns connected in the end zone with 24 seconds left on the clock for Stanford’s first TD of the game. They got their second TD on a fumble return TD with no time left on the clock as the Bruins tried for a miracle rally. Prior to his game winning drive, Burns was 13-27 for 135 yards, not exactly ‘Andrew Luck’ type numbers. This will be the toughest defense he’s faced. Washington has a pair of NFL draft picks in the secondary and their pass rush has been devastating, a bad combination for a young QB and a conservative head coach. Stanford doesn’t have a wide receiver with gamebreaking speed or talent – no WR has more than nine receptions and 105 receiving yards on the campaign. If (when) this team falls behind by multiple scores, they’ll have a very hard time rallying back, not built to come in through the back door. The Huskies have the better quarterback in Jake Browning. While Christian McCaffrey gets all the headlines, check out Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman’s ’s numbers at RB for Washington; every bit as impressive as McCaffrey thusfar. Washington has dominated all three previous home games this year. They won’t get pushed around in the trenches against Stanford the way so many teams do. And they’re primed to make some noise on a national stage on Friday Night. Take Washington |
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09-24-16 | Houston v. Texas State +34.5 | 64-3 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Texas State (#392) I don’t step in front of Houston lightly – the Cougars deserve their lofty ranking and their national accolades. But this is the wrong pointspread range for this matchup, given the intangibles here. Those intangibles are not factored into the pointspread, yet they are most assuredly significant! Sure, Texas State wasn’t ready to compete against the likes of Arkansas last week, pushed around in the trenches trying to contain the Razorbacks ground game while unable to get anything going on the offensive side of the ball. It was an ugly game, plain and simple. It’s also in the rear view mirror now, with the Bobcats getting a chance at redemption against a Top 10 foe on their own home field. There’s a strong connection between first year Texas State head coach Everett Withers and his counterpart on the Cougars sideline, Tom Hermann. They coached together in previous stints at both Ohio State and Texas. Hermann’s quote: “I consider him a close friend. My wife and his wife are really close friends. They got to know each other quite a bit in Columbus and continue to talk to this day. We were excited when Everett got the opportunity to move back to the great state of Texas and excited to see him off to a good start." But it’s more than just friendship. How about this little nugget! Former Houston assistant Adrian Mayes is now the offensive line coach for coach Withers at Texas State. Hermann: “That will be a big challenge for us. We are having to change every signal, call and check. We are trying to get ready to win a game, and yet we are having to spend this amount of time to mask what we are doing. It's not a matter of only changing the plays. It's a matter of what we are calling our plays, how we are communicating and signaling them." That’s NEVER a quote I want to read from a 34.5 point road favorite! There’s more. Cougars QB Greg Ward is already banged up, and the Cougs BCS Playoff dreams rest on his shoulders. Ward carried a career high 26 times last week and he’s already missed one game with a bum shoulder. He’ll be out of the game in the latter stages if the Cougs have a comfortable lead – this is most assuredly NOT a ‘run up the score’ type of game for a Houston team that doesn’t see (or cover) pointspreads in this range very often. The Cougs blew out Lamar two weeks ago without Ward, and they beat Texas State 59-14 last year. Coach Hermann is trying to guard against complacency; which means that he’s seen signs of it in practice this week, always a red flag. His quote: “Texas State is not Lamar. That’s a really good football team. They went on the road in their first game in the Withers era and won a triple overtime game at a (Mid-American Conference) opponent’s place that has traditionally been one of the top teams in the (conference). Much different animal.” I’m not convinced that his team believes him. One final factor here. The Cougars went 13-1 last year. The one loss came against UConn, and the Huskies are on tap for Houston next week. Do you think they’re more focused on the team they beat 59-14 last year or the team that handed them their only loss of the season? Take Texas State. |
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09-24-16 | Central Florida -6.5 v. Florida International | 53-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show | |
Take UCF (#315) The bad news is that my clients and I lost a big bet fading UCF last week. The good news is that the Knights found a QB last week, and they’re primed to be moneymakers for us moving forward! Let me start with an excerpt from last week, and explain what I got wrong “New UCF Coach Scott Frost has made it very clear what he wants to install for the Golden Knights. The former Oregon Ducks offensive coordinator wants Central Florida to become “The Oregon of the East”, looking to get his squad playing at a frenetic tempo right from the get-go. “Here’s Frost’s quote: “One of the things that drew me to the job is I knew I could run a version of our offense that was practically identical to Oregon's because we can recruit that type of player here. I don't think you could run Oregon's offense at Wisconsin; I don't know if you would get enough guys that can run well enough to do it. In Orlando, Florida, there's fast guys in high schools in every direction in close proximity that are already running systems in high school that are similar to this and should want to play in it.” “If UCF was adept at playing at Frost’s pace, it would be one thing. But as with any team that is changing offenses dramatically while still playing with the personnel from the previous regime, it’s going to be a bumpy road. To make matters worse for UCF, starting QB Justin Holman is all banged up, no sure thing to play on Saturday after missing practice during the week.” Here’s what I missed—the Holman injury was actually a VERY good thing for the Knights. Holman had been losing games for the last two years. His replacement – frosh McKenzie Milton – was a legitimate difference maker as the Knights took Maryland into double OT last week as 9.5/10 point underdogs. This dual threat QB has a big arm and he’s fast; a ‘bet-on’ QB for a team that is 1-14 SU since the start of the 2015 season. Let me repeat that. UCF is 1-14 SU in their last 15 ballgames, yet they are laying nearly a touchdown on the road here. That speaks volumes about Ron Turner’s Panthers, as Turner is working his magic, running yet another program into the ground. FIU hasn’t enjoyed a winning season in the Turner era, off to an 0-3 start after an ugly loss last week s road favorites against UMass. UCF took Maryland to double OT. FIU lost to that same Terps team in non-competitive fashion at home the week before; a 41-14 smackdown that wasn’t as close as the final score. And these quotes coming from the FIU defense don’t sound particularly confident to this bettor! Defensive coordinator Ron Cooper: “I don’t even remember anybody [last year] as fast as these guys. These guys are on the ball and they’re running the next play. And they don’t just do it from one formation. They have multiple formations…….It’s hard to [tempo offense] versus your scout team. It may take us a series to get used to it in the game.” Linebacker Treyvon Williams: “It’s always a challenge when you face a tempo team. We have to get up, line back up, get the call and execute the defense every play.” I’ll take the ‘Under’ on FIU stops in this ballgame…. UCF went 0-12 last year. 10 of their losses came by two touchdowns or more, as they should have – George O’Leary’s final season was a complete disaster. Their other two losses came by one point against FCS Furman and by one point against FIU; a devastating opening day defeat as a double digit home favorite. It’s surely worth noting that UCF beat FIU 38-0 in the previous meeting. UCF has this game circled, and their primed to hammer a weak foe into submission. Take UCF. |
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09-24-16 | Duke v. Notre Dame -20 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#356) Make no mistake about it – Duke is an absolute mess right now. Head coach David Cutcliffe was worried this might happen before the season started: “This is probably the most change. I’ve called it the year of new. We’ve got a new defensive line coach, a new tight end coach, a new offensive coordinator, a new special teams coordinator, a new offensive line coach, a redshirt freshman new quarterback. It’s an interesting time for us. We’ve had a lot of stability here…..it’s a process, and it’s a daily process, and our football team right now, to be honest with you, it’s a day-to-day process and we’re just trying to get better.” The markets got a false read on the Blue Devils in their opener, a 49-6 wipeout over a bottom tier FCS foe as 34.5 point favorites. But since that opening day win, Duke has looked awful. They were TD favorites over Wake Forest, but suffered a non-competitive home loss to a team they had dominated in every recent meeting. Last week, they hit the highway against a winless Northwestern team. Again, they stunk up the joint, a VERY young, rebuilding team that is struggling to find their way right now. What’s wrong with Duke? Everything! Frosh QB Daniel Jones only has two TD passes in three games. Take away one 50 yard TD run from Jela Duncan against NC Central and the entire RB corps is barely averaging three yards per carry behind a rebuilt offensive line. Ture frosh kicker AJ Reed has missed all three of his field goal attempts and an extra point try. Duke has a true frosh punter as well. Duke’s defense is loaded with question marks, with a rebuilt front seven and a very spotty secondary. They’ve already shown extreme ‘big play’ vulnerability, and they’ve yet to face an offense loaded with skill position talent. Did I mention that Cutcliffe has been publicly complaining about his young team’s lack of intensity and bad practice habits? This Blue Devils team isn’t good and they’re not particularly confident either – Duke knows what’s coming on Saturday. Notre Dame has the same 1-2 record as Duke, but the Fighting Irish have already played Texas and Michigan State, far superior opposition to what the Blue Devils have faced. And make no mistake about it – the Irish are coming to play this week, looking to make amends for last week’s slow start (and subsequent home loss) against the Spartans. Irish head coach Brian Kelly laid down the gauntlet for his team this week: “We obviously compete unevenly, if you will, in a manner that I would probably characterize as we lack a sense of urgency in the way we play … So finding that sense of urgency (is important), that attention to detail that's absolutely crucial to being a really good football team. We can't be the kind of football team that we want to be unless we play with a sense of urgency for four quarters.” “Urgency for four quarters” is exactly what I’m looking for out of my bigger favorites, especially when they’re playing with a chip on their shoulder, like they are here of last week’s no show. Duke can’t hang with the big boys & Notre Dame is bringing their ‘A’ game. Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
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09-24-16 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina OVER 67.5 | 36-37 | Win | 100 | 73 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh – North Carolina OVER (#345-346) For a team with mediocre (at best) QB play who doesn’t run an uptempo system, the Panthers are about as strong an ‘Over’ team as you’ll find. Why? Two key reasons, both of which should come into play from start to finish against North Carolina. First, the Panthers secondary is an absolute mess right now, Oklahoma State had ten plays of more than 20 yards last week, and third year QB starter Mason Rudolph set his career high in passing yards against them. The previous week, Pitt couldn’t hold a lead against Penn State, allowing soph QB Trace McSorley to light them up for 331 yards and 38 points in his first career road start. Both Penn State and Oklahoma State play with pace…but neither squad plays as fast as Larry Fedora’s Tar Heels. Head coach Pat Narduzzi’s quote talking about his struggling young secondary doesn’t exactly reek of confidence: “They’ve got to understand and have to have faith and belief in what we’re doing. They’ve got to understand that it works when you do it right and it doesn’t work when you’re not doing it right. It’s either your way or our way; which one are you going to do? If you continue to do it your way, then we’re going to have problems. If you do it our way, you’ve got a chance.” But Pitt has a fighting chance, even against good passing teams, because their run game is so unique, built to create big play chances out of the backfield. RB James Connor showed real burst last week, the former ACC Offensive Player of the Year in 2014. Speedster Quadree Henderson is a big play waiting to happen. Five different rushers have gained at least 20 yards on a single carry already, and the Tar Heels aren’t exactly known for stuffing the run in recent seasons. North Carolina can score points in bunches, and after a slow start against Georgia, QB Mitch Trubisky has led the team to 48 and 56 points in their last two ballgames, picking up right where they left off last year – an offense that averaged more than 40 points per game. But with the markets not truly viewing Pitt as an ‘Over’ team (yet), we’re getting a relatively low total in a game with ‘shootout’ written all over it! Take the Over. |
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09-24-16 | East Carolina v. Virginia Tech OVER 56 | 17-54 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech – East Carolina OVER (#319-320) Virginia Tech hasn’t played much ‘pace’ yet in Justin Fuente’s first year on the job. Expect the Hokies to start picking up the tempo in a real way this week; a double revenge spot against East Carolina. QB Jerod Evans, coming off a five TD effort in the Hokies 49-0 whitewash of Boston College last Saturday: “There’s definitely another gear to this offense. We were trying to figure out where we was at, make sure we’re executing right, so I kind of slowed down myself to make sure I was executing and doing my job right. But, yeah, it definitely has another gear.” And we should definitely note the red zone execution against a solid defensive foe for a team that scored seven touchdowns without kicking a field goal. Virginia Tech has been practicing at Fuente’s preferred no-huddle pace. WR Coach Holmon Wiggins, who came with Fuente from Memphis: “We want those guys to go out there and play as fast as they can within the parameters of what we’re trying to do. We can spit the call out fast or we can kind of hold it.” East Carolina’s defense isn’t built to handle speed (or size, or anything else for that matter). The Pirates can win shootouts, but they’re not going to win many defensive struggles. The only good offense they faced – NC State – gained more than 200 yards on the ground AND through the air against East Carolina, and could have scored far more than the 30 points that they did. East Carolina is coming off a frustrating loss at South Carolina, a game in which they gained over 500 yards – 200 more than the Gamecocks -- but scored only 15 points. Minnesota transfer QB Philip Nelson threw for 400 yards against a solid SEC defense, one week after marching the team up and down the field in the upset over NC State. Scottie Montgomery ‘s squad has superior skill position talent to what Virginia Tech faced last week, and East Carolina has repeatedly shown us that they can hang points on solid defenses in every recent season. Last year’s game got into the 60’s and this year’s game should be played at a much faster pace! Take the Over. |
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09-17-16 | Utah v. San Jose State +13.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 35 m | Show | |
Take San Jose State (#210) Utah is not built for blowouts. This is not one of Kyle Whittingham’s better Utes teams when it comes to skill position talent. First year QB starter Troy Williams has a very pedestrian 3-3 TD-INT ratio in his first two games with the Utes, and the vast majority of his passes have been of the ‘dink and dunk’ variety. Nobody on the team has a rush of longer than 17 yards. The Utes hung 24 against FCS Southern Utah in their opener, then struggled to get to 20 last week in a HUGE win over arch-rival BYU. Their offense hs produced only four TD’s in two games, one of which came against an outclassed foe. Utah is not primed to score points in bunches against anybody, making this pointspread look a good notch or two inflated. On deck for Utah? How about a HUGE revenge matchup against a USC squad that knocked them out of the Top 5 last year, handing the Utes their first loss of the season. Coming off that last minute, ultra-physical win over BYU, this game has all the makings of a ‘flat as a pancake’ spot for the road favorite. San Jose State got pounded in their opener at Tulsa, and then Tulsa got pounded at Ohio State last week, making the Spartans Week 1 showing look even worse. I’m not buying that one iota. San Jose walked into the heat and humidity of Tulsa and got bombed early by an uptempo, high octane offense. They won’t face that type of offense here, nor will they have to deal with those conditions. The Spartans are an UNDERvalued commodity in the betting markets right now. And San Jose is a pretty good team. They won a bowl game last year, and showed the ability to hang tough in the trenches against bigger, more physical foes. Dual threat senior QB Kenny Potter is in his second year as the starter and he’s got solid skill position talent around him. Defensively, this team has a strong Front Seven, capable of hanging tough at the line of scrimmage. Offensive coordinator al Borges and defensive coordinator Ron English are both major conference veterans – this team won’t be out-prepped this week. San Jose State doesn’t get PAC-12 teams to come visit Spartan Stadium very often. The last FBS team to come play in San Jose was Utah, back in 2009. The Spartans battled the Utes start to finish in that contest, a game that was tied in the fourth quarter and a wire-to-wire pointspread cover as 13.5 point underdogs. Gee, that pointspread sounds familiar……Take San Jose State. |
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09-17-16 | Texas State +31 v. Arkansas | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Texas State (#161) If you watched Texas State knock off Ohio U in Week 1, you saw very clearly that the Bobcats were power rated in the wrong place coming into the season. The betting markets insisted that Texas State was a 17 point underdog at the close in Athens. They won the game in overtime, but it’s not that they won – it’s that there was no difference between the speed, size and skill position talent for the two teams on field. When a team is +17 and there’s no discernable talent differential, I take notice! Remember, this team was 7-5 two years ago before the bottom fell out last year. Head coach Dennis Franchione – a guy who had been a head coach at Alabama and Texas A&M – just wasn’t engaged in his final year at the helm of a second tier Sun Belt program. Based on everything I’ve seen and read, It’s very clear that the players in San Marcos are buying into what new head coach Everett Withers is selling! Texas State had a bye last week. The markets aren’t really adjusting for what they did against a MAC school on the road two weeks ago. This is a team that underachieved to their talent level last year, leaving them as an undervalued commodity as 30+ point underdogs in Fayetteville on Saturday. And with QB Tyler Jones coming off a 400 yard, four TD effort last time out, I’m expecting Texas State to get in the end zone here, more than once….. This is a miserable flat spot on the Razorbacks schedule. They’re coming off a wild, come-from-behind OT win at TCU, a HUGE game and a HUGE victory. On deck for the Hogs? A revenge matchup with Texas A&M. In between, they’ve got this non-conference affair against a Sun Belt school. We’ve already seen one flat effort in a lookahead spot for Arkansas—they were lucky to escape with a one point home win against Louisiana Tech in their opener, never sniffing a cover as 21 point chalk. No surprise here if Brett Bielema’s team doesn’t sniff a cover in this one either…..Take Texas State. |
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09-17-16 | Maryland -9.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -112 | 31 h 7 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Maryland (#121) Maryland is power rated in the wrong place right now and from all indications, they’re primed to bring their ‘A’ game to Tampa on Saturday Night. That’s bad news for a dismal, transitioning UCF team in the midst of a 14 game losing streak against FCS foes with precious little home field edge. Here’s what I wrote about UCF last week, cashing an Over bet on the Knights in that ballgame: “New UCF Coach Scott Frost has made it very clear what he wants to install for the Golden Knights. The former Oregon Ducks offensive coordinator wants Central Florida to become “The Oregon of the East”, looking to get his squad playing at a frenetic tempo right from the get-go. Here’s Frost’s quote: “One of the things that drew me to the job is I knew I could run a version of our offense that was practically identical to Oregon's because we can recruit that type of player here. I don't think you could run Oregon's offense at Wisconsin; I don't know if you would get enough guys that can run well enough to do it. In Orlando, Florida, there's fast guys in high schools in every direction in close proximity that are already running systems in high school that are similar to this and should want to play in it.” If UCF was adept at playing at Frost’s pace, it would be one thing. But as with any team that is changing offenses dramatically while still playing with the personnel from the previous regime, it’s going to be a bumpy road. To make matters worse for UCF, starting QB Justin Holman is all banged up, no sure thing to play on Saturday after missing practice during the week. UCF has virtually no homefield edge whatsoever these days. They went 0-fer the season on this field last year, and lost their final four home games 40-13, 59-10, 44-7 and 44-3, totally non-competitive in defeat. They’re attracting modest betting market support this week because of supposedly decent box score numbers they put up at Michigan last week, outrushing the Wolverines 275-119. Of course those numbers are fraudulent! With the exception of one Adrian Killins 87 yard TD scamper, the Knights averaged a grand total of 3.6 yards per snap on their other 67 plays from scrimmage. And just about all the yardage the Knights gained came against Wolverines reserves – Jim Harbaugh pulled his defensive starters with a 44-7 lead early in the second half. Against Michigan’s starters, UCF had one drive longer than four plays…. What about the Maryland side of the equation? Two year ago, Maryland was an up-and-coming team in the Big 10 under Randy Edsall. But the bottom dropped out last year – bad QB play and a slew of injuries sent Edsall to the curb, ushering in the new DJ Durkin era. So far so good! Healthy QB Perry Hills has dominated his first two games, a huge relief after Maryland led the nation by throwing 29 interceptions last year. The Terps have run for more than six yards per carry. They won by margin on the road last week right here in Florida. And it’s surely worth noting that Durkin was a defensive assistant at Stanford – Frost’s Oregon offense isn’t going to overwhelm the Terps, not even close. Maryland is taking these two games in Florida very seriously. They’ve got seven Florida natives on the roster and hope to have many more; identifying the Sunshine State as a key recruiting ground moving forward. Cornerback Will Likely, a Belle Glade native, talking about how excited the team is to play in Florida for the second straight week: “Whoever made that schedule, I love them for that.” Terps are undervalued here, undervalued by enough to make this game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take Maryland. |
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09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma State (#174) My clients and I cashed a wining bet fading Oklahoma State last week in the Cowboys well publicized and extremely controversial home loss to Central Michigan. Let me make this perfectly clear – it was ‘bet-on’ the Chippewas far more than it was ‘bet-against’ the Cowboys. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “Make no mistake about it – Central Michigan is a feisty, talented underdog with a proven track record of hanging tough on the highway against Power 5 competition. Look no further than last year, when the Chips covered wire-2-wire in competitive losses against Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Michigan State, on the heels of SU wins at Purdue and at Iowa in previous seasons. Senior QB Cooper Rush has 37 career starts under his belt, the most experienced college signal caller in the country. My numbers show Rush as a guy who is now 14-2 ATS on the road in his last 16 tries, dating back to midway through his freshman season of 2013; truly a track record worthy of support. I expect we’ll be betting on Rush in an NFL preseason game next August – he’s got that level of upside. Rush has plenty of skill position talent surrounding him, and he’s got a veteran offensive line protecting him. While Oklahoma State has a solid defense, I don’t expect them to completely shut Central Michigan down.” Central is no joke. But the markets seem convinced that Oklahoma State stinks because they lost the game AND that the Cowboys are going to be hung over following that defeat. I disagree on both counts. Here are some quotes from local news sources to back my case for the Cowboys NOT being hung over this week QB Mason Rudolph, a third year starter, after Okie State went 1-11 on third downs last week: “That’s on me. Usually third down is a passing down. I’ve got to be more effective and be more accurate. We’ll improve.” WR James Washington, talking about the senior leadership on the team: “Us being the leaders on this team, we need to get everybody back to where we need to be, and everybody's mindsets where we need to be to accomplish our goals as a team. We've got to have short-term memory loss. Throw it in the past and focus on next week.” Head Coach Mike Gundy: “We were poor on third-down defense, and we were terrible on third-down offense. That’s really what it came down to…..” Gundy, talking about the message he delivered to his players: “I don’t want to hear about it anymore from you because you can’t do anything about it. It’s my fault for making that call and me not knowing that rule was the way it was. You guys can’t do anything about it. But we didn’t play very good on third down. OK? You guys need to do something about that.” Pitt’s coming off a huge win against in-state rival Penn State, and they’ve got their ACC opener – a revenge matchup against North Carolina -- on deck. This road trip to Stillwater is not exactly a ‘bring your ‘A’ game type of spot from the road underdog. Pitt’s D couldn’t get stops or hold the lead against Penn State’s plodding offense last week. Look for the Cowboys skill position talent and speed to give that stop unit all kinds of problems this week! Cowboys win comfortably. Take Oklahoma State. |
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09-10-16 | Georgia State v. Air Force -21 | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Air Force (#348) It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Georgia State this year in a bad matchup for them a long, long way from home. I’ll let Panthers head coach Trent Miles tell you what he thinks this year is going to be like following the graduation of Sun Belt Player of the Year Nick Arbuckle this past offseason, following an ugly home loss to Ball State last week “Now you are seeing what it’s like, life without Nick Arbuckle. We didn’t do anything on offense to help move the ball and protect our defense. … They ran the ball down our throat. Our defense was out on the field for a long period of time.” If the Panthers offense couldn’t generate drives at home against Ball State at home, it’s certainly not going to be easy for them to generate offense against an Air Force team that has won 18 games over the past two seasons and is primed to contend with Boise State and San Diego State for the Mountain West Conference title in 2016. And if Georgia State isn’t capable of getting first downs and burning some clock here, it’s going to get ugly, because the Air Force offense with junior QB Nick Romine healthy and expected to go, is more than capable of scoring touchdowns on every drive. Air Force was a pointspread machine on this field last year. They opened up with 56 and 21 point wins in their first two games, covering the spread by more than two TD’s each time, and finished the campaign with a 5-1 ATS mark in Colorado Springs. Romine got banged up last week, but all reports indicate that he’ll be good to go on Saturday. Air Force returns their entire running back corps as well as senior playmaking WR Jalen Robinette, on pace to become their all-time leading receiver. Georgia State’s defense allowed 325 rushing yards at home to Ball State last week, and now they’ve got to face a QB who can throw the ball too. And the high altitude in Colorado Springs makes things even worse for a bad defense that should be gasping for air by midway through the second quarter. Air Force returns ten starters on defense; a loaded, senior laden stop unit. They were sloppy last week against Abilene Christian, finishing -2 in turnovers while allowing 8.3 yards per pass and three touchdowns. With a bye on deck, this is the ‘clean up the mistakes’ week for Troy Calhoun and company. Meanwhile, Georgia State has to travel to Wisconsin next Saturday for what is likely to be another physical beatdown. I do not expect the Panthers to perform well here, to put it mildly. Take Air Force. |
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09-10-16 | Central Florida v. Michigan OVER 52.5 | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Central Florida OVER (#313-314) New UCF Coach Scott Frost has made it very clear what he wants to install for the Golden Knights. The former Oregon Ducks offensive coordinator wants Central Florida to become “The Oregon of the East”, looking to get his squad playing at a frenetic tempo right from the get-go. Here’s Frost’s quote: “One of the things that drew me to the job is I knew I could run a version of our offense that was practically identical to Oregon's because we can recruit that type of player here. I don't think you could run Oregon's offense at Wisconsin; I don't know if you would get enough guys that can run well enough to do it. In Orlando, Florida, there's fast guys in high schools in every direction in close proximity that are already running systems in high school that are similar to this and should want to play in it.” UCF ran 91 plays in their opener against South Carolina State, accomplishing what Frost was hoping to accomplish in terms of pace. Against Michigan’s defense, UCF isn’t likely to break the scoreboard, but the key here is their tempo – fast! I don’t expect the Knights to get shut out here, especially after Michigan pulls their starters in the second half. But I do expect UCF to have more than their fair share of 3-and-outs, leading to a very tired defense trying to stop a Wolverines offense that hung seven touchdowns (no field goals!) against Hawaii last week right here at the Big House, scoring those seven TD’s on seven consecutive drives following an interception on their first play from scrimmage. Michigan is live to score a TD every time they have the ball against a defense of this caliber, and a defense that scored two TD’s last week is more than capable of another big play TD (or two) this week. The Wolverines offense scored seven TD’s on nine possessions last week. The only two possessions where they didn’t score where the one play opening drive (interception) and the final drive where they just ran out the clock. This week, they could easily have 13, 14 or 15 possessions thanks to UCF’s fast pace. Expect fireworks! Take the OVER. |
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09-10-16 | Central Michigan +21 v. Oklahoma State | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Central Michigan (#327) MAC underdogs went 5-1 last week, and there’s ample reason to believe that John Bonamego’s Chippewas are primed to continue the Mid-American Conference’s pointspread success when stepping up in class this week! Make no mistake about it – Central Michigan is a feisty, talented underdog with a proven track record of hanging tough on the highway against Power 5 competition. Look no further than last year, when the Chips covered wire-2-wire in competitive losses against Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Michigan State, on the heels of SU wins at Purdue and at Iowa in previous seasons. Senior QB Cooper Rush has 37 career starts under his belt, the most experienced college signal caller in the country. My numbers show Rush as a guy who is now 14-2 ATS on the road in his last 16 tries, dating back to midway through his freshman season of 2013; truly a track record worthy of support. I expect we’ll be betting on Rush in an NFL preseason game next August – he’s got that level of upside. Rush has plenty of skill position talent surrounding him, and he’s got a veteran offensive line protecting him. While Oklahoma State has a solid defense, I don’t expect them to completely shut Central Michigan down. Oklahoma State took advantage of a bevy of SE Louisiana turnovers last week in a 61-7 blowout, recovering all four SELA fumbles. It’s surely worth noting that despite the 61 points, this offense looked out of sync for extended stretches following a hot start, gaining less than 400 total yards. The Cowboys struggled mightily against Central Michigan’s defense last year, held to 24 points in a game where they were favored by 23.5, and that Chippewas defense returns eight starters, a loaded MAC stop unit. Don’t expect Mike Gundy’s squad to run away with this one….. Take Central Michigan. |
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09-10-16 | NC State -5.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take North Carolina State (#331) This is a tale of two programs in very different places right now. North Carolina State bottomed out in the first year of the Dave Doeren era, going 3-9 in 2013. The program has made steady improvements since, and now in his fourth year on the job, Doeren has his recruits, trained in his system and ready to annihilate weaker opposition. East Carolina, on the other hand, made a very curious decision to fire Ruffin McNeal following a single losing season after three consecutive 8+ win campaign. While I like the Scottie Montgomery hire, make no mistake about it – this is a team in transition right now. In addition to new systems on both sides of the ball, the Pirates are breaking in a new quarterback, rebuilding their offensive line and dealing with a mediocre defense that suffered significant graduation losses in the offseason. NC State graduated stellar dual threat QB Jacoby Brissett in the offseason. His replacement, graduate transfer Ryan Finley started three games under offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz at Boise State last year before a broken ankle ended his season. Now he’s reunited with Drinkwitz at NC State, already assimilated into Drinkwitz’s playbook and loaded with skill position talent surrounding him and a solid offensive line to protect him. After losing each of their last two meetings against East Carolina, this time around, expect the Wolfpack to put up points in bunches from start to finish. East Carolina isn’t capable of trading points with solid defensive teams this year. The Pirates lost 102 career starts off their offensive line due to graduation, breaking in a very inexperienced unit. The Wolfpack defense is loaded; returning eight starters. They’re particularly strong on the defensive line – don’t expect many holes for the Pirates backs to run through or much time for QB Philip Nelson to find receivers downfield. The Wolfpack won four road games by 16 points or more last year, primed to dominate East Carolina in their road opener here in 2016. Big Ticket: Take NC State. |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 68 | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Louisville – Syracuse OVER (#303-304) Last week, Louisville starting quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for 286 yards and six touchdowns. He ran for 19 yards and two touchdowns. And he did it all in the FIRST HALF against Charlotte. Before we say ‘no big deal, that was Charlotte’, let’s not forget what Jackson did in the game before that; running and passing for more than 200 yards each, scoring two TD’s on the ground and throwing two TD passes as well in their bowl win over Texas A&M. When Louisville faced Syracuse last year, the Cardinals team speed simply overwhelmed the Orange in a 41-17 victory, gaining 579 yards of offense in the process. It’s surely worth noting that Lamar Jackson didn’t play in that game – Bobby Petrino went with his backup QB. It’s also worth noting that Syracuse isn’t going to be held to 17 or less on a regular basis this year – not in Dino Babers offense! Last week, Syracuse ran 81 offensive plays, gaining 554 yards while hanging 33 on Colgate. Babers – a former Art Briles assistant at Baylor and the architect of the Bowling Green offense that averaged 42 points per game last year – was not pleased. His quote stands out like a sore thumb for totals bettors: “That will be the slowest game you ever see us play. Did you see the paint drying? I did. We will never be that slow again.” More Babers: “We have a dome. The snow doesn’t matter. The rain doesn’t matter. The wind doesn’t matter. I can guarantee them that every single college football game at home, they’ll play in perfect weather.” In a national TV game that legitimately matters for Babers’ future recruiting efforts, expect a breakneck pace from both squads on Friday Night, leading to wildly entertaining, high scoring shootout. Take the OVER. |
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09-03-16 | USC v. Alabama -11.5 | 6-52 | Win | 100 | 78 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#202) It’s fairly easy to make a case for betting on Nick Saban on opening day. My numbers show him as 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS in season openers since arriving in Tuscaloosa back in 2007. That includes wins against some top notch competition, beating Clemson on a neutral field by 24 in 2008, Michigan on a neutral field by 27 in 2012, Virginia Tech by 25 on a neutral field in 2013 and Wisconsin by 18 on a neutral field last year. Now that’s a track record worthy of support. In many of those years, just like this year, ‘Bama was breaking in a new quarterback. USC spent a period of time in the Pete Carroll era when they were the best program in the country, reeling in one top rated recruiting class after the next. When USC went into decline following Carroll’s departure, Alabama started landing those type of classes every year, and it hasn’t stopped. This is the epitome of an ‘always reloaded’ program, because the talent the underclassmen backups see in practice every day is as good or better than anything they’ll see on the field once they mature into starting roles. I trust Alabama’s talent level implicitly, and I trust that Saban will have them ready for opening day. That same level of trust does not extend to USC’s Clay Helton, and the Trojans program is not what it was. Helton – a first year, first time head coach, with a pair of new coordinators – cannot be trusted to have his team ready on opening day. And USC isn’t reloading the way they once were; bad news considering how young and inexperienced his front seven is on defense. The only upperclassmen on the defensive line is transfer Stevie Tu’ikolovatu; a third stringer at Utah, and the entire defense is without a returning senior starter. These guys are going to have a very tough time stopping the ‘Bama smashmouth running game, and the Trojans inexperience at QB won’t help matters when they fall behind. Take Alabama. |
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09-03-16 | SMU -9.5 v. North Texas | 34-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 0 m | Show | |
Take SMU (#169) SMU went 1-11 in 2014, and the one win came in their season finale against an ‘almost-as-dismal’ 2-10 UConn squad. Last year, Chad Morris – the architect of the Clemson offense that hung 40 on ‘Bama in the National Championship Game in January – took over as head coach. There was a thorough housecleaning. Former Texas A&M QB Matt Davis – a Top 10 dual threat prospect coming out of high school – got his feet wet in the first year as the starter and the first year of Morris’ offense. But it wasn’t a successful season – SMU went 2-10. This year, Davis is ready to take the next step, and SMU is primed to explode into an uptempo, high scoring offensive juggernaut. Their skill position talent has been dramatically upgraded – talented, fast kids want to play in this offense -- and they’re healthy. After being forced to start freshmen on the line last year, this year, SMU returns 73 career starts on the OL. An offense that returns nine starters improved from 11.1 to 27.8 points per game between 2014 and 2015. Expect another fairly dramatic jump this year! Here’s the Chad Morris quote that stands out: "I felt like last year we started out playing fast. As the year went on, we kind of scaled our offense back to help our football team out. We didn't have the depth, we couldn't hold up in the long run on defense, and so we actually slowed things down, which goes totally against everything I'm about, everything I've stood for the last five six years. And my response to that is, we still went 2-10. "That didn't work. We really have depth in our defensive line, which is a plus for us. That will help keep a lot of guys fresh. But we're going to go back to doing what we do. We're going to play fast, extremely fast. I felt like in the spring we played as fast as we've ever played, going back to our time at Clemson. That was our method, that was our goal coming out of the spring, to continue to play fast, and that's what we're going to do. "We're not going to get away from what got us here. Our guys have really adapted to that. We want to turn it loose, get in the left lane and have some fun with this thing." SMU went 2-10 last year, but one of those wins came against the same North Texas squad they’ll face on Saturday. The Mustangs outgained North Texas by more than 200 yards in that 31-13 win. They were faster all over the field, running circles around the slower Mean Green kids. And this is a short bus ride for SMU in a cross city rivalry, not a long trip for a team that has struggled on the highway in every recent season. So, I’m telling you that I put my money on a team that is 3-20 SU over the last two years as 9.5 point road favorites AND I’m advising you to make the same bet. Clearly, it’s not all ‘bet-on’ for SMU here (although SMU’s speed edge makes me comfortable expecting them to ‘pour it on’ as the game progresses). There’s got to be some ‘bet-against’ on the other side. And there is! Lots of it! North Texas bottomed out (again) last year, finishing 1-11 and sending Dan McCarney packing midseason. This program has been in general decline for more than a decade, despite getting a new stadium back in 2011. And now, first year, first time head coach Seth Littrell is changing everything, taking a bunch of guys recruited to play a slower, run based style and asking them to go to the same uptempo spread attack that SMU faces in practice every day. Let’s just say that from multiple reports, the transition has seen quite a few hiccups in fall practice…. Take SMU |
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09-03-16 | Bowling Green v. Ohio State -28 | 10-77 | Win | 100 | 70 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Ohio State (#162) There aren’t many college football teams that lost more than Bowling Green did this past offseason. The Falcons rode a record setting senior class to a 10 win campaign in 2015. But head coach Dino Babers was gone before the bowl game. MAC Offensive Player of the Year, senior QB Matt Johnson graduated, as did first team All-MAC RB Travis Greene, three of their top four receivers, three of their four starting defensive linemen and both starting safeties. The cupboard isn’t bare here, but don’t expect BG to come out of the gate resembling the team that scored 42 points per game last year. As recently as 2012 – before Johnson took over at QB – they averaged less than 23 points per game. When Babers left, Athletic Director Chris Kingston was on his way out the door. Instead of a seamless exit, he was suddenly tasked with replacing one of the more successful coaches in school history. Babers went uptempo, so Kingston thought he should make sure to get a ‘push the pace’ guy. He ended up with the Texas Tech running backs coach, Mike Jinks, a guy who has never been a college coordinator and spent most of his career coaching at the high school level. If not saying Jinks is a bad coach or a bad fit. I am saying that I don’t trust him one iota when it comes to getting his team ready to compete on opening day against Urban Meyer at the Horseshoe. Prior to last year, Urban Meyer was arguably the single most ‘bet-on’ coach in the country when it came to these early season non-conference games, consistently overachieving ATS in all three of his previous stops prior to Ohio State. But last year’s team was fractured. Three different QB’s were fighting for the starting job, dividing the locker room. There was loads of talent – 12 guys got drafted, all in the first four rounds. But that talent didn’t jell as a TEAM, especially early, as the Buckeyes opened 6-0 SU, but 1-5 ATS in a series of lethargic performances. That was then. This is now. Ohio State still has NFL caliber talent at virtually every position, but this year, their talent was more focused on earning a starting job in the free for all that was fall camp, instead of dreaming and working towards the NFL Draft. QB JT Barrett -- #5 in the Heisman vote back in 2014 -- is an elite dual threat talent, the perfect guy to lead this team. And yet the markets fixate on one thing – ‘Ohio State has only six starters back’. And that ensures this line isn’t getting higher than four touchdowns, a ‘buy’ price for me on Ohio State. When Urban Meyer empties his bench in the second half of this one, the Buckeyes third stringers will be running circles around the Falcons defenders, just like their first stringers were. Expect an ugly afternoon for the road underdog. Take Ohio State. |
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09-02-16 | Army v. Temple -16 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Temple (#148) Army went 2-10 last year, on the heels of 4-8, 3-9, 2-10 and 3-9 seasons in the previous four campaigns. Clearly, this is a bottom tier program, suffering 18 losing seasons in the last 19 years. Third year head coach Jeff Monken looks a whole lot like his predecessors Rich Ellerson and Stan Brock – well regarded, but without much talent to work with. The betting markets went into the summer months with lots of love for the Black Knights; a team that returned 16 starters and received a fair bit of attention in some wiseguy circles. But make no mistake about it – it has not been a good summer for Army, not even close. The Black Knights were forced to kick arguably their best defender off the team, when John Jenkins was dismissed following an honor code violation. QB Ahmad Bradshaw quit the team two weeks ago, then was grudgingly reinstated. He is expected to start, despite his propensity for mental errors. The guy who was supposed to beat him out for the job, sophomore Chris Carter, has an injured hamstring that kept him out for nearly three weeks of fall camp, leaving a very tenuous and unsettled issue at quarterback heading into Week 1. Army’s offensive line has struggled throughout camp, leading Monken to shuffle guys around, not what you want heading into a game against Temple’s stout defensive line. Their RB corps lacks playmakers. Their defensive line is undersized and routinely gets abused by bigger, more physical units. With much of a pass rush, the secondary is primed to get exposed. And it’s surely worth noting that Army is breaking in a new kicker and a new punter – a special teams breakdown (or two) would go a long way towards covering this number. There’s no shortage of reasons to look to fade this overrated (in the betting markets) Army squad. Make no mistake about it – Temple’s 10 win season last year is the new normal for the Owls. This team has come out of the gate STRONG in each of Matt Rhule’s first three seasons on the job, covering the spread by a whopping 75.5 points in those three openers. From all indications, this year’s team is the best one he’s had yet, despite some ‘wiseguys’ who expect some sort of a drop-off from a program not used to extended runs of success. Senior QB PJ Walker is the type of dual threat QB that Army has routinely struggled against. RB Jahad Thomas is a big play TD waiting to happen, coming off a 1300 yard, 17 TD campaign last year. Their receiving corps is noticeably tall, bad news for Army’s undersized secondary, and reports indicate that the Owls will be looking to open up their passing game her. Defensively, the Owls have been dominant in each of the last two years. And it’s surely worth noting that Temple brings everyone back on special teams… Worried about focus? I’m not! Temple has only Stony Brook on deck. Coach Rhule did one of those ‘kick the whole first string offense out of practice’ moves last week. “The first-team offense didn't want to be coached today. They were using their feelings, emotions, on the football field instead of listening to what the coaches were saying. I threw them off the field and told them to go home." Smart move from a ‘bet-on’ coach to ensure focus here in a game that I expect the Owls to win by a very comfortable margin. Big Ticket: Take Temple. |
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01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson +7 | Top | 45-40 | Win | 100 | 148 h 36 m | Show |
Take Clemson (#152) I could do this write-up in three sentences. First, ‘Clemson isn’t Michigan State’. Second, ‘This time around, Nick Saban doesn’t have three weeks of prep time’. And third, ‘I can’t pass up the better quarterback catching a touchdown.’ That’s the crux of my pro-Tigers take. Yes, Alabama has more top tier talent than Clemson; a roster that’s absolutely loaded with blue chip NFL prospects after the Crimson Tide have stood at the very top of the recruiting rankings in every recent season. Yes, Alabama has gone 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS in previous national title games under Nick Saban. Yes, Clemson doesn’t have the same type of elite pedigree as the vast majority of national title winners since the BCS era began. All of those factors are why 14-0 Clemson is the underdog here; already baked into this pointspread. The Tigers are catching a full touchdown in many locations, although plenty of books still have Dabo Swinney’s squad at +6.5. It’s important to note that any and all Clemson supporters should be shopping for the +7, not settling for the +6.5. I’m expecting a competitive, one score game, not a blowout from either side. Alabama can’t play a better game than the one they played against Michigan State last week. Saban had his three weeks of prep time for that game, and his team had a real chip on their collective shoulders following their loss to another Big 10 team, Ohio State, in the semi-finals last year. And most importantly, Clemson is not Michigan State! The Spartans lacked playmakers at wide receiver, while Clemson is loaded with speedy, big play wideouts. Michigan State had a drop-back passer at quarterback, not a dual threat mobile QB like Deshaun Watson. Clemson spreads the field, Michigan State ran pro-style sets. Clemson is loaded with NFL caliber talent on offense; the Spartans weren’t. Michigan State tried to run between the tackles, playing right into Alabama’s defensive strength. Clemson is going to spread the field and run to the outside, playing right into Alabama’s biggest defensive weakness. Michigan State tried to slow the game down; Clemson is going to speed it up. And perhaps most importantly, if Alabama was -9.5 or -10 against Michigan State, how on earth are they -7 here against a Clemson team that I have power rated a full TD better than the Spartans? Simple – public perception that Alabama is the truly dominant, unbeatable team that they are purported to be. The Crimson Tide lost at home to Ole Miss earlier this season. They lost in the national championship semi-finals to Ohio State last year as well as a loss at Ole Miss. In 2013, they got whipped in the Sugar Bowl by Oklahoma on the heels of a loss to Auburn. In 2012, it was Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M who knocked them off their unbeaten perch. Every one of those losses came against a team that plays into Alabama’s lone defensive weakness – their struggles against uptempo spread offenses with mobile quarterbacks. When you push the pace, forcing Saban to alter his substitution patterns, the Crimson Tide defensive is less effective. Every single defeat that Alabama has suffered in recent seasons has come against an offense that looks a lot like Clemson’s . Saban has had three weeks of prep prior to all three previous national titles. He had three weeks of prep prior to the win over Michigan State. But he won’t have that extra prep time this week, a factor that matters even more considering the Kirby Smart situation. ‘Bama’s defensive coordinator is also Georgia’s new head coach, and he’s trying to juggle both jobs as he installs a gameplan for this week. That can’t be considered a good thing for Crimson Tide supporters. Jake Coker might play his way onto an NFL practice squad. In a best case scenario, he might be drafted in the sixth or seventh round. I can’t think of a single game in Coker’s collegiate career in which he responded to adversity by carrying his team to victory. That certainly didn’t happen at Alabama this year. And Coker doesn’t have a better game in him than the one he played last week against the Spartans. Deshaun Watson carried Clemson on his back more than once this year, reminding this bettor of Cam Newton in his national championship season at Auburn in that regard. Watson could be the #1 overall draft pick when he’s eligible for the 2017 NFL Draft. His deft touch on the deep ball is of particular importance here – a stellar 45% completion percentage on passes of 20 yards or longer with a collegiate high 16 TD’s on those throws. A quick strike TD (or two, or three) will go a long way towards a Clemson pointspread cover and/or potential upset on Monday Night. Take Clemson. |
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01-02-16 | West Virginia v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 43-42 | Win | 100 | 59 h 18 m | Show |
Take Arizona St – West Virginia OVER (#279-280) Why did Arizona State finish 6-6 in a year where they were expected to compete for the PAC-12 title? I’ll let head coach Todd Graham tell you: “We gave up too many big plays and we didn’t score enough points.” I expect only one of those two problems to get solved on Saturday Night in the Cactus Bowl. Arizona State is going to blitz Mountaineer QB Skyler Howard again and again. Mountaineers head coach Dana Holgorsen: ”They put pressure on you every single time you snap the football. They are as good as anyone in the country with forcing negative plays, whether its sacks or tackles for loss.” For some QB’s this would be a major problem, and Howard did take 29 sacks during the regular season. But Howard saw all kinds of pressure this year, and he got better and better at handling that pressure as the season progressed; avoiding the mistakes and poor decisions that plagued him during the Mountaineers four game midseason losing streak. Coach Holgorsen is no dummy. With three weeks to prepare, he’s emphasized blitz protection in practice, while designing a gameplan to produce big plays in bunches against a blitzing D. Arizona State’s biggest weakness was a propensity to give up big plays. West Virginia has seven different players with a 50+ yard TD on offense this year – they’ve got the personnel to beat Arizona State’s defensive gameplan. Holgorsen isn’t shy about pushing tempo either – this game is likely to have far more possessions than the average college football game, good news for Over bettors. Coach Graham’s emphasis throughout his bowl practices has been about solving the second of his two problems “scor(ing) enough points”. Graham’s entire career has been predicated on pushing the pace offensively, getting opposing defenses winded and out of sync. For extended stretches this season, his offense was inefficient, but they came on like gangbusters down the stretch, hanging 52 on Arizona and 46 on Cal (both of whom were good enough to win their bowl games), while gaining well over 550 yards in both contests. Sun Devils QB Mike Bercovici has a downfield arm. Their top three backs all averaged better than 5.3 yards per carry and eight different receivers caught touchdown passes. West Virginia’s defense feasted on the weak down the stretch, facing texas, Kansas, Iowa State and Kansas State in their final four games – the four weakest offenses in the Big 12. But when asked to step up in class against uptempo teams, we saw West Virginia allow 146 points in losses to Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU. This game is not likely to be anything resembling a defensive struggle. Two uptempo attacks and two defenses that give up big plays set us up for what should be a highly entertaining shootout on Saturday Night! Take the Over. |
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01-01-16 | Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#263) The Big 10 had three teams in the national championship picture this year – Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa, all three of whom would have made an eight team playoff instead of a four team playoff. Those three Big 10 teams weren’t necessarily elite, but the rest of the conference was so weak it didn’t matter. Which explains why Northwestern won ten games this year, and is playing a bowl game of this magnitude. So say that everything broke right for the Wildcats in 2015 would not have been an overstatement. They got Stanford in an early start Week 1 game, not the same Stanford team we saw the rest of the year when they were acclimated. Northwestern won at Duke in a monsoon. The got Minnesota on a week where the entire Gophers offensive line was hurt. They got Wisconsin on a week where the Badgers offense was inept (there were plenty of those weeks). They beat Nebraska on a missed two point conversion. And Pat Fitzgerald’s team avoided both Ohio State and Michigan State. Northwestern played two teams in good form on a good day for those teams. They lost at Michigan 38-0 and lost at home to Iowa 40-10. ‘Nuff said. This team has no playmakers. Leading receiver Dan Vitale caught 33 balls for 335 yards. QB Clayton Thorson is a good runner, as is RB Justin Jackson. But this is the type of game where the Wildcats are going to need some big plays to stay close. I’m not convinced they can get ‘em. Tennessee is loaded with speedy playmakers, a team primed to produce quick strike touchdowns. Once the Vols grew up a little and stopped blowing big leads (Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas) and executing in the fourth quarter, they started dominating. The Vols closed out the regular season with five straight wins; four of them by double digit margins. This team took Alabama to the wire in Tuscaloosa. They had Oklahoma beaten until a late game collapse. Tennessee has the playmakers that Northwestern lacks, the vastly superior team on both sides of the ball, despite Northwestern’s gaudy record. And don’t underestimate the Vols dominance on special teams, a Butch Jones trademark dating back to his tenure at Central Michigan; a team with six return touchdowns on the season. For a squad that lacks overall athleticism like Northwestern, a big play or two on special teams is well within Tennessee’s capacity here. I’m not expecting the fourth quarter to be close…. Take Tennessee. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Clemson (#262) ‘Big Game Bob’ Stoops developed his reputation very early in his head coaching career, leading the Sooners to an impressive upset win over Florida State for the national title back in 2000. His Sooners beat Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl in 2001 and Washington State in the Rose Bowl in 2002. Voila, ‘Big Game Bob’, a name that was well deserved when the Sooners were going 11-1 SU in their first twelve games against Top 10 foes in the Stoops era. Of course since that time, Oklahoma has not been able to repeat that initial success. They lost in the Sugar Bowl to LSU and got blown out playing for the national title against USC in the 2004 Orange Bowl. Boise State knocked ‘em off in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl. West Virginia annihilated them in the same venue the following year. Their 28 point loss in the 2012 Cotton Bowl certainly stands out, as does last year’s no-show in a 40-6 bowl loss to the same Clemson team they’ll face here. Oklahoma is 0-3 in national title games and 2-5 in BCS Bowl games since that early success. And I’m not even going to bring up the bevy of big November games in Big 12 play that ‘Big Game Bob’ Stoops has lost as a favorite. Here in Las Vegas, Oklahoma is power rated as the second best team in the country, behind Alabama but well ahead of undefeated Clemson. The betting markets have been very impressed with the Sooners 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS run since their lone loss, against Texas. That being said, this team wasn’t good enough to beat 5-7 Texas, a team that failed in every other ‘step-up’ in class game all year until their season finale against banged up Baylor. The Sooners schedule certainly played out in their favor. They didn’t face Baylor or TCU until late November, when injuries had devastated both teams, leaving them as a paltry shell of the squads they were earlier in the campaign. Despite the injury woes, the Sooners were lucky to survive against TCU, winning only because the Horned Frogs failed to convert a two point try in the final minute. They got Baylor one game after QB Seth Russell got knocked out for the season due to neck surgery. They were lucky to survive at Tennessee, beating the Vols when Butch Jones squad was in a tailspin, blowing leads week after week. That being said, the Sooners statistical profile is very impressive. QB Baker Mayfield averaged better than 9.5 yards per pass attempt, with a 35-5 TD-INT ratio. RB’s Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon both averaged better than six yards per carry for the full season, rushing for 22 TD’s between them. Their defense is loaded with NFL caliber talent, including Eric Striker, Zack Sanchez, Charles Tapper, Dominique Alexander and Ahmad Thomas. By the numbers and the NFL caliber talent on hand, you can understand why the Sooners are favored here. That being said, what the heck does Clemson have to do to earn some respect from the betting markets?? Clemson, like Oklahoma, has been recruiting blue chippers and sending them to the NFL on a regular basis in recent seasons; guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, CJ Spiller, Dwayne Allen, Vic Beasley, Da’Quan Bowers – I could go on, but you get my point. Dabo Sweeney’s squad isn’t short on NFL caliber talent, and there’s no significant talent differential between these two teams. All Clemson did for the entirety of the season was to win games and cover pointspreads. Oklahoma beat Tennessee in non-conference action; Clemson beat Notre Dame. They won on the road at Louisville and Miami, and handled tough tests against Florida State and North Carolina with easy double digit victories. Dabo Swinney’s squad is essentially being penalized by the betting markets because they haven’t been here before. Clemson’s last three bowls have been SU and ATS wins over Oklahoma, Oho State and LSU; all as underdogs. Yes, they were +5 in turnovers in that Russell Athletic Bowl win over the Sooners last year, but it’s not like the tigers have been losing the turnover battle regularly this year. Oklahoma is talking ‘revenge’ from last year’s embarrassment, but the Tigers aren’t going to roll over for anybody! They’ll be dancing with Dabo if the Tigers pull the upset, and so will we, and we don’t even need the upset to cash a winning bet. Take Clemson! |
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12-31-15 | Houston +7 v. Florida State | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#257) Two years ago, Florida State played for the national title and won. Three years ago, they played in the Orange Bowl and won. Four years ago, they played Notre Dame and won. Five years ago, they beat up on South Carolina in their bowl. Last year, they faced Oregon in the Rose Bowl in the national championship semifinal, but they lost. That’s five straight years where Florida State played in a bigtime bowl game, mostly against high profile, marquee opponents. This year, the Seminoles are playing a pre-New Year’s bowl game in Georgia against Houston. For a team that has been in the national title mix in each of the previous three seasons, this is not a particularly motivating bowl game or a particularly motivating bowl opponent. Florida State has little to gain here – if they win, everyone will say they were supposed to win – and everything to lose. It’s the type of spot that leaves this bettor with only one choice – either bet against FSU or pass the game. I’ve chosen the former of those two options, with Houston offering plenty of ‘bet-on’ fodder. FSU senior starting QB Everett Golson left the program for ‘personal reasons’ last week. There’s not a huge downgrade from Golson to his backup Sean Maguire. But McGuire threw only five TD passes in his last four starts, while throwing for 164 yards or less on three occasions during that span. Florida State’s offense is essentially a one trick pony – hand the ball off the Dalvin Cook, and watch Cook do his magic. Cook is an exceptional back, for sure, with a 7.9 yards per carry average and 18 rushing TD’s this year. But he’s the only significant offensive weapon on this team. FSU is still overvalued from their season ending blowout win in the Swamp against Florida, a game in which the Gators QB play can only be described as ‘abysmal’. And the Seminoles weren’t exactly tested during most of the regular season either. Their best wins came against the likes of Miami-FL, USF, North Carolina State and Louisville, not exactly elite level competition. Houston head coach Tom Hermann has earned my respect. As Ohio State’s offensive coordinator last year, Hermann was instrumental in getting the team to the national championship with a third string quarterback behind center. With extra time to prepare, Hermann was at his best, guiding the Buckeyes to 42 points against Alabama and 42 against Oregon in their two postseason contests. Hermann took the Houston job last offseason, and proceeded to guide the Cougars to a 12-1 record. It’s surely worth noting that their only loss – at UConn – came in a game where starting QB Greg Ward was sidelined. No, Houston didn’t step up in class much this year. But Ward is a QB that I trust against a quality defense, an elite dual threat who would have been a serious Heisman contender had he played for a Power 5 conference team. Just as importantly as Ward’s ability to move the chains on offense is Houston’s success against the run defensively this year. The Cougs allowed less than 3.5 yards per carry and just 116 rushing yards per game, consistently containing or shutting down their opponents on the ground. With three weeks of prep time to face a ‘one trick pony’ offense, I’m expecting Houston to have success keeping Cook from running wild against them. That should keep them in this game throughout! And the fact that Hermann signed a long term extension really matters here. So many successful non-Power 5 coaches get new jobs before their bowl game, like Justin Fuente at Memphis, Matt Campbell at Toledo and Dino Babers at Bowling Green. Hermann just signed a new five year deal, showing his commitment to his players and the program. I’m expecting his team to play their guts out for him here. Against a foe with questionable motivation, taking a full TD with this live dog is a no brainer to this bettor! Take Houston. |
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12-30-15 | Memphis v. Auburn -3 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 48 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Auburn (#250) Auburn was a complete failure during the regular season, barely eking out bowl eligibility thanks to a late season win over lowly Idaho. Bettors who supported the Tigers took a bath, as Auburn finished the regular season with a 3-9 ATS mark. A team that was expected to compete for a national title back in August is now playing in the Birmingham Bowl. All the knee jerk reaction bettors will be fading Gus Malzhan’s squad here with rationale like this: “Auburn is disappointed in their bowl bid” and ‘Auburn was a terrible spread team all year.” The latter is true – Auburn was a terrible pointspread team this year. And history tells us that teams that cash less than 33% of the time during the regular season are EXCELLENT bowl bets, cashing at a 65% clip long term. It’s easy to understand why. The markets crash on teams that don’t cover spreads again and again, and there’s no ‘bettor momentum’ to support a team that has burned everyone all year. The end result is that teams like Auburn tend to be very undervalued come bowl time, as clearly evidenced by this three point spread. I’m not buying the ‘disappointed to be here’ argument either. The Tigers will draw significant crowd support, a ‘home-game like’ atmosphere. Coach Malzahn: “We have a tremendous fan base in Birmingham and we are excited to play in front of them. With a large number of our team from the state of Alabama, it will also be a great opportunity for those players to compete before their family and friends.” Make no mistake about it – the Tigers are the more talented team here, by a wide margin. QB Jeremi Johnson was touted as a potential Heisman candidate prior to the season, fully healthy and ready after three weeks of bowl practices. Sean White could see some playing time as well. The Tigers have NFL caliber talent at RB and WR. Their defense was solid all year, keeping them in game after game despite their offensive struggles. Auburn has the potential here to be the team they were expected to be here in 2015, at least for one game. Memphis does not. In fact, the Tigers are a strong ‘bet-against’ squad for the purposes of this matchup. Remember that Tigers team that got off to an 8-0 start, including wins over the likes of Ole Miss, Bowling Green, Cincinnati, USF and Tulsa, all of whom earned bowl bids? Well, that confident, swagger filled Tigers team is gone now after Memphis proceeded to lose three of their last four, the lone victory coming against lowly SMU. It’s not just the swagger that’s gone for Memphis. Head coach Justin Fuente left for the Virginia Tech job. New head coach Mike Norvell won’t officially join the staff until after this game is through, leaving interim head coach Darrell Dickey in charge in an awkward situation. Dickey’s previous head coaching stint at North Texas was fairly successful, but not when the Mean Green tried to step up in class, losing by double digits in three of their four bowl games under Dickey. I’m not convinced in the slightest that Memphis is poised to bring their ‘A’ game here following a long layoff. Last year’s Miami Beach Bowl OT win over BYU came in the very first salvo of bowl games, without a significant layoff. It’s a very different flow this year, as this Paxton Lynch quote will show you: “ (Last year) We never really had to go home and then come back and get ready for a game, because last year we got to go to the game and take our break like that.” Auburn plays in a bowl game every year – there are no continuity issues for the favorite here, while the underdog has significant issues in that regard. Auburn is certainly hungry for a bowl win after suffering tight, three point losses against Wisconsin and Florida State in their last two tries. From a line value perspective, Memphis was a ten point HOME underdog against Ole Miss; now they are only three point dogs at Legion Field, which is essentially a road game. This is a ‘get-well’ game for this SEC underachiever. Big Ticket: Take Auburn. |
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12-29-15 | Air Force v. California OVER 67 | 36-55 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Air Force – California OVER (#241-242) Where do the stops come from in this game? I’m not expecting many punts, let me put it that way. Air Force closed out their conference season by cashing seven consecutive Mountain West Overs. Facing teams that see the option every year – teams that, in theory, should be better prepared than most to stop them – the Falcons ran wild, averaging about 37 points per game. Cal hasn’t seen an option offense this year, or last, or the year before that – the first triple option offense they’ve faced in the Sonny Dykes era. They don’t really have the personnel to even simulate an option offense in practice. I’m not convinced in the slightest that the extra time to prepare for Air Force is going to help Cal’s mediocre defense one iota. That being said, Cal is a TD favorite here for a reason. Coach Dykes is recruiting heavily in Texas, going so far as to hold an open practice on Saturday so that local high school players and coaches could check out his playbook in action. QB Jared Goff will be playing on Sunday’s next year. Ten different receivers caught at least one TD from Goff this year and each of the Bears top four running backs averaged at least five yards per carry. The Bears hung 48 and 54 in their last two home games, and hung 45 on Texas in September in their last visit to the Lone Star state. Air Force didn’t see an offense comparable to Dykes spread attack all year either, and they, like Cal, have no way to simulate what their opponent is trying to do on the practice field. The Falcons secondary is legitimately outclassed here, setting the stage for what should be a high scoring shootout on a clear day in Ft Worth. Take the Over. |
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12-26-15 | Tulsa +14 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 78 h 54 m | Show |
Take Tulsa (#233) This will be Frank Beamer’s 23rd and last bowl game as the Virginia Tech head coach, a true coaching legend. And every pundit in the world is predicting a Hokies victory on Saturday, as they should – Virginia Tech is nearly a two TD favorite in that game, with the line as high as -14 at some books, with the potential to go even higher. But ‘winning one for the ol’ coach in his last game’ doesn’t mean ‘blowing out a motivated and talented opponent by more than two TD’s.’ Let’s not forget that Virginia Tech has already played two tight ‘win one for the coach’ games since he announced his retirement – the OT thriller against North Carolina in Beamer’s last home game, then the regular season finale at arch-rival Virginia. This will be the Hokies third game in a row with this supposedly ‘dig deep with extra effort’ mentality, and I’m not convinced it carries over from one game to the next particularly well. If the Hokies win this game by a TD, they’ll be happy campers…but their betting supporters will not! Virginia Tech isn’t the type of team that wins games by big margins very often. Their offense produced more than 28 points only three times all year. One of those games was against FCS Furman. The other two big blowouts were all about turnovers, with the Hokies seven takeaways allowing them to extend margins against lowly Purdue and offensively challenged Boston College, two teams with no capability to play from behind. Tulsa has the capability to play from behind, and they’ve shown more than once this year that they’ll dig deep on a late drive with nothing on the line other than the pointspread. My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket bet on the Hurricanes when they did just that at Cincinnati, turning a 19 point deficit into a spread covering 12 point loss, going 79 yards in less than a minute for that all important final score. It was a similar story against Oklahoma; an 80 yard drive in 50 seconds with the game out of reach in the fourth quarter. Even if the Hurricanes struggle to stop Virginia Tech, their offense is quite capable of cashing our ticket through the backdoor. And frankly, I’m not convinced that we’ll need that final backdoor score – I wouldn’t make this bet if I didn’t think Tulsa could hang around in competitive fashion throughout. Head coach Philip Montgomery is an Art Briles protégé who spent the previous four years under Briles at Baylor. WR Keyarris Garrett is arguably the best playmaker in college football that you never heard about this year (1450 receiving yards). QB Dane Evans averaged just shy of nine yards per attempt while throwing for more than 3900 yards. There’s balance with the run game – scatback D’Angelo Brewer ran for almost five yards per carry while big beefy Zack Langer punched in 17 touchdowns. Beamer probably gets an appropriate sendoff with a victory, but I don’t expect it to come easily. Take Tulsa. |
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12-26-15 | Indiana -2 v. Duke | 41-44 | Loss | -111 | 76 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#231) Duke has been a very good underdog in recent bowl games, cashing ‘plus the points’ winners against Arizona State last year and Texas A&M the previous season. But there’s a reason that the Blue Devils haven’t won a bowl game since 1961. Their players actually have to study for Finals, certainly more than kids from other schools do. Duke is consistently outclassed in the athleticism department as well; not a team loaded with gamebreakers who can turn a game on a single play. When opposing coaches have time to prepare for the Blue Devils, they tend to succeed. And Duke has suffered a major, under-the-radar injury that will absolutely affect them for this game against the speedy, fast paced Hoosiers. Safety Jeremy Cash, who originally signed with Ohio State, was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year and a unanimous first team All American. Cash underwent wrist surgery last week, and he’s out for this contest. Defensive injuries like this one don’t tend to move the needle on college football pointspreads – this line held steady at -2 even following the announcement. It will absolutely affect the Blue Devils ability to get stops, and the Duke offense isn’t quite good enough to trade points with a team like Indiana. It’s not like the Blue Devils were going into this bowl game in good form prior to the loss of their defensive star. Their hot start was tempered by a 1-4 SU finish, a team that never seemed to recover from their last second loss to Miami. That lone win certainly wasn’t impressive, a six point victory over lowly 3-9 Wake Forest. An overachieving team over the first half of the campaign ended up being exactly what we thought they were – a mediocre team from the worst of the Power 5 conferences this year. Indiana hung tough with some elite teams this year, losing to Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State all by a single score. But the Hoosiers played their best football down the stretch, bouncing back from those tough mid-season defeats with a pair of blowouts in their final two games. The Hoosiers defense isn’t anything special, but this offense has shown more than once that they are capable of putting up points in bunches against anybody. The betting markets seem very concerned about the injury to Indiana RB Jordan Howard, leaving him questionable for the bowl game. I’m not concerned about Howard’s status one iota. His replacement, Devin Redding, ran for 274 yards in those last two regular season wins, a capable replacement. Senior QB Nate Sudfeld threw only five interceptions on 361 pass attempts, finally playing at the level that head coach Kevin Wilson was expecting when he was his initial star recruit. Last, but not least, the Hoosiers breakneck pace on offense is bad news for Duke’s limited defensive depth. The last time the Blue Devils faced an uptempo offense of this caliber, they gave up 66 points on more than 700 yards of offense in a blowout loss to North Carolina. Take Indiana. |
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12-24-15 | Cincinnati v. San Diego State +1.5 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 196 h 13 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take San Diego State (#224) What does a disappointing team closing out a disappointing season without their senior NFL prospect QB get as a reward here in bowl season? A trip to Hawaii. In fact, some might call it a vacation in Hawaii. And that’s not what I’m looking for in this spread range, where the SU winner is highly likely to cover the pointspread. From all indications, Cinci isn’t a team primed to bring their ‘A’ game on Christmas Eve. Bearcats head coach Tommy Tuberville isn’t exactly known for getting his teams to play their best football during bowl time. Cincinnati got pounded as favorites against Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl last year. They got pounded in the Belk Bowl in 2013, losing by three touchdowns as an underdog of less than a field goal. Tuberville had two bowl teams in three years at his previous coaching stop at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders went 0-2 ATS in those games as well. If you read any late season quotes from the Bearcats beat writers, you saw the same word quoted over and over again: “disappointment”. Cinci went 10-3 in both 2011 and 2012, on the heels of three consecutive 10+ win campaigns when Brian Kelly was the head coach from 2007-2009. They went 9-4 in 2013 and 9-4 again last year; qualifying for some better bowls and enjoying relevance in the college football world. And with a LOADED offense back in a relatively weak AAC conference, the Bearcats were expected to compete for the title again this year. That didn’t happen. They lost to Temple as home chalk, then got beaten by Memphis, BYU, Houston and South Florida; five of the six ‘good’ teams they faced this year beat them. The lone victory in a step-up game came at home against Miami; a game that was a ‘coin flip’ type contest well into in the fourth quarter. The Bearcats two wins away from home came by a field goal against East Carolina in a VERY ugly season finale and by four points at Miami-Ohio in a game they were laying -21. Cinci won’t have senior Gunner Kiel at QB here, although frosh Hayden Moore isn’t much of a downgrade. The real issues here are their defense and their mentality. I don’t trust this team to remain focused in this environment, and even if they are focused, I don’t trust their defense to get stops against the Aztecs potent ground game. San Diego State is not a team to fear getting distracted in this venue. They played at Hawaii this year, winning by two TD’s at a point of the season where Hawaii was still playing competitive football. They won at Hawaii in 2013 as well, both SU and ATS. And those Southern California kids aren’t as likely to be distracted in an environment like this one compared to a bunch of kids leaving the cold weather of the Midwest behind. The Aztecs reeled off nine straight wins to close out the season following a 1-3 start. Eight of those wins came by double digit margins, with stud RB DJ Pumphrey wearing down opposing defenses to the tune of more than 1500 rushing yards and 17 rushing TD’s. Pumphrey should have a field day against a Bearcats defense that allowed more than five yards per carry this year. Senior QB Maxwell Smith threw only two interceptions all year – not a dynamic playmaker, but not a guy who will cost you games. He hurt his ACL and missed the Mountain West Championship Game, but Smith is expected to play here. I’m more than willing to support San Diego State even if Smith doesn’t play – backup Christian Chapman threw for more than 200 yards in the win against Air Force in the title game. The key, besides the location, is the San Diego State defense. Rocky Long has a hard to prepare for, unorthodox 3-3-5 scheme. CB Damonte Kazee was the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year. The Aztecs are strong in the trenches and strong in the secondary, the two areas where Cinci has been able to beat up on weaker foes this season. I’ll take Long over Tuberville in this venue with extra time to prepare, and I’ll take it LARGE! Big Ticket: Take San Diego State. |
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12-23-15 | Georgia Southern +7.5 v. Bowling Green | 58-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Georgia Southern (#219) Bowling Green was a GREAT regular season team this year. The Falcons went 10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS, including a 34-14 rout of Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. Even their losses were good. BG hung tough at Tennessee until a late game 24-3 Vols run-out cost them the ATS cover. They hung tough in a three point, spread covering loss at Memphis. Their home loss to Toledo wasn’t pretty, but Toledo is a really good team and that loss was all about early turnovers and mistakes, something that didn’t happen very often. That was then. This is now. Since the end of the regular season, BG has faced a litany of distractions. Head coach Dino Babers left to take the Syracuse job. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward has been named the interim coach for this bowl game, but Ward and several other top assistants will be leaving for Syracuse as soon as this game is over; a major distraction. BG had final exams last week, with players cramming instead of practicing. And ten seniors went through graduation ceremonies last Friday, another significant distraction. BG gave opponents fits with their fast pace during the regular season. Georgia Southern saw more than one uptempo offense in the Sun Belt this year, and three weeks of prep time should have them fully acclimated to the Falcons speed of play. It’s surely worth noting the weather forecast for Mobile on Wednesday Night—rainy, windy conditions. That’s not good news for BG quarterback Matt Johnson, who threw for 4700 yards and 43 touchdowns in the Falcons pass-first offense. And it’s also worth noting that Bowling Green has won only one bowl game in five tries since 2005, a tight five point win over South Alabama last year. Note that margin wouldn’t be enough to cover this year and that, in general, this program has not responded well following a layoff, when opponents have extra time to prepare for them. Georgia Southern has gone through their own coaching change, with Willie Fritz leaving for the Tulane job. Assistant head coach Dell McGee is the interim coach for the bowl, and he’s got something to coach for, with murmurs that he could land the offensive coordinator job here next year under incoming head coach Tyson Summers. Georgia Southern’s season ending debacle against Georgia State – a game where they were favored by three touchdowns but lost by four TD’s -- has clearly influenced this betting line. When the triple option Panthers can’t run, they can’t win; a team with only 742 passing yards all season. But BG hasn’t seen an option attack this year, and I’m not convinced they’d be able to stop one even if they had seen it before. Georgia Southern is truly excited to play their first ever bowl game. Their defense was good enough to hold SEC powerhouse Georgia to 17 points in regulation; just one of seven opponents they held to 20 points or less. The sloppy conditions favor the underdog here in a game they’re capable of winning in SU fashion. And Georgia Southern’s dominating win over MAC foe Western Michigan -- a team that gave BG fits – makes the case for the dog perfectly clear for this bettor. Take the points with Georgia Southern. |
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12-21-15 | Western Kentucky v. South Florida +2.5 | 45-35 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 44 m | Show | |
Take South Florida (#212) Anyone and everyone who bet Western Kentucky in their bowl game last year will remember it well. The Hilltoppers led 49-14 in the fourth quarter as three point favorites; well on their way to a laugher of a win and cover. Then Central Michigan scored five unanswered TD’s before they failed on the potential game winning two point conversion try. The Hilltoppers still came away with the SU win, and had a happy flight home from the Bahamas while their backers were left with a bad beat for the ages. This year’s bowl doesn’t look like the kind of game Western Kentucky can get out to a 49-14 lead in! South Florida was a classic ‘they get better every week’ type of squad this year. The Bulls came into the season with low expectations, off back-2-back losing seasons in Willie Taggart’s first two years on the job, a combined 6-18 SU in 2013 and 2014. A three game skid in early season play (Florida State, Maryland and Memphis, nothing to be ashamed of there) left the betting markets expecting more of the same from USF. That was a mistake. Since that three game skid, USF has gone 7-1 SU and ATS, the lone loss coming at Navy. The Bulls saved their very best football for November. In their final three regular season games, USF hung 153 points and more than 1500 yards against Temple, Cinci and UCF. QB Quinton Flowers is a top notch dual threat QB with 11 TD passes in his last four games and zero interceptions in five of his last six contests. WR Rodney Adams is a dangerous big play threat, just one of five Bulls receivers that caught a TD pass of 40 yards or longer this year. But the real strength of USF is their running game and their defense. Stud RB Marlon Mack is a bad matchup for a Western Kentucky defense that wasn’t exactly at their best when trying to stop explosive backs this year. And the Bulls defense is loaded with playmakers; a stop unit that shut down more than one high octane QB like Brandon Doughty this year; most notably shutting down Paxton Lynch of Memphis, Gunner Kiel and Hayden Moore of Cincinnati, Matt Davis of SMU and even Florida State’s Everett Golson, held to 177 passing yards while barely completing half of his pass attempts. USF will have the stronger crowd support here, playing close to home. They have, by far, the better defense. And there’s a coaching angle here that’s most assuredly worth noting. Willie Taggert was Western Kentucky’s coach through the end of the 2012 season, recruiting all the upperclassman talent on the Hilltoppers roster. That intimate knowledge of those personnel strengths and weaknesses give the Bulls one extra edge in a game that I expect them to win outright. Take USF. |
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12-19-15 | Arkansas State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 67 | 28-47 | Win | 100 | 77 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Arkansas State – Louisiana Tech OVER (#209-210) We’ve got two uptempo offenses led by two elite level mid-major quarterbacks on the fast track of the New Orleans Superdome (no weather to worry about) on Saturday Night. We can and should expect a high scoring affair, filled with quick strike scores and solid red zone execution leading to touchdowns, not field goals. This game has all the makings of a fun early bowl shootout, primed to fly Over the total with ease. These two teams are 16-8 to the Over between them this season; as the betting markets never really caught up to how explosive their offenses were. That was particularly true for Arkansas State, who began the season with a banged up Fredi Knighton behind center. Knighton missed three full games and part of a fourth. The Red Wolves were held to a TD or less twice in their first four games, and cashed three Under tickets in the process. But they haven’t cashed a single Under since Knighton returned to the field in October; 8-0 to the Over in their last eight tries. Knighton is a tough dual threat QB to handle. He led Arkansas State to 44 points in their bowl against Toledo last year, throwing for more than 400 yards and five touchdowns, but the Rockets scored 63 against the spotty Red Wolves defense. I’m not convinced that a stop unit which allowed the likes of Georgia State, Idaho, South Alabama and New Mexico State to score four or more TD’s against them is primed to shut down senior Jeff Driskel and the potent Bulldogs offense either! Driskel is the #2 non-Power 5 QB on most early draft boards, behind only Paxton Lynch from Memphis. The Florida transfer led his team to 38+ in half of their games, including five multi-TD outings in his last six contests. Five different Bulldogs receivers had TD catches of 50 yards or more, led by the explosive Trent Taylor. And senior RB Kenneth Dixon averaged better than 5.5 yards per carry for the third time in four seasons, notching 17 TD’s on the ground. But Skip Holtz’s defense is every bit as vulnerable as the Arkansas State stop unit. La Tech is here because they couldn’t stop Southern Miss in the C-USA title game, allowing 58 points and 555 yards while forcing only four punts. La Tech, in particular, had their problems against the better rushing teams that they faced, bad news against the Red Wolves potent ground game. Look for these two offenses to light up the scoreboard in what should be a very entertaining Saturday Night affair. Take the Over. |
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12-05-15 | North Carolina v. Clemson OVER 67 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina – Clemson OVER (#329-330) I’m not expecting too many stops when these two high octane, quick tempo offenses take the field on Saturday Night. Both teams rank among the Top 15 in the nation in offensive efficiency and explosive plays (their percentage of drives that average at least ten yards per play). When these two teams met last year, we saw a 50-35 final score, flying Over the total. The previous meeting was 59-38, flying Over the total by six touchdowns. And there’s absolutely no reason to expect a dramatic change on a clear, cool night in Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game. We already know how good these offenses are. In four November wins, North Carolina has scored an average of 50 points per game, despite the fact that they were on complete cruise control in the second half of several of those blowouts. Larry Fedora’s team plays fast and they create big plays in bunches. With a third year starter in dual threat QB Marquise Williams, its hard to picture a Clemson defense playing under enormous pressure – it’s hard for a team like Clemson to be ranked #1 at this stage of the season, needing only one win to reach the Playoffs -- to shut them down. Clemson’s offense is as elite as it gets. DeShaun Watson in his second year behind center, has averaged 8.7 yards per pass ATTEMPT while running for more than 750 yards and nine TD’s. RB Wayne Galman is a big play waiting to happen and nine different receivers have caught at least one touchdown pass. The Tigers have scored 33+ seven times in their last eight games, and can be expected to exceed that point total again here. Both defensive coordinators have gotten ample mainstream media love. Brent Venables spent a dozen years coaching Oklahoma’s defense with Bob Stoops, an impressive pedigree. North Carolina’s Gene Chizik was certainly a splashy hire, and the Tar Heels defense is vastly improved compared to last year’s sorry unit that allowed 39 points and 498 yards per game, ranked #117 in the country. But neither of these defenses is elite; not even close. North Carolina’s defense has been torched repeatedly in the second half down the stretch, unable to get key stops against Duke, Miami, Virginia Tech and NC State in their last four contests, allowing 83 points after halftime of those four games. Chizik hasn’t enjoyed a major personnel upgrade from last year, and his stop unit lacks quality depth, wearing down by December. The Clemson offense they’ll face on Saturday is, by far, the best offense they’ve seen all year. Clemson has more defensive playmakers than UNC, but this is not a loaded unit. They couldn’t stop South Carolina’s anemic attack last year and benefitted from particularly rainy weather in wins over Florida State and Notre Dame – the weather slowed those two offenses down as much as Clemson’s defense did. Expect a good, old fashioned Saturday Night shootout in a game that should be highly entertaining, loaded with quick strike, big play TD’s from start to finish. Take the Over. |
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12-05-15 | USC +4.5 v. Stanford | Top | 22-41 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 28 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take USC (#323) USC certainly isn’t short on talent. When you grade out the Trojans personnel with that of the Cardinal, you’d make USC the favorite here on a neutral field. But Stanford has been the better team for extended stretches this season, going 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in their eleven games since that ugly loss at Northwestern to open the season, a loss that left Stanford thoroughly undervalued for the better part of the next two months. That stretch included a 41-31 Cardinal win at USC, but note the pointspread for that game. USC was favored by 9.5 points. And the Trojans are a much better team now compared to what they were back in September when these two teams last played. That makes the Cardinal, favored by -4.5 as I write this, a clearly overvalued commodity in the rematch. Stanford’s defense has clearly declined down the stretch, hence their 2-3 ATS run since that 7-0 ATS run following the Northwestern loss. They’ve allowed 89 points in their last three games (not including the Notre Dame kick return touchdown last week). Both Oregon and Notre Dame averaged better than nine yards per SNAP against this stop unit. The Cardinal haven’t intercepted a single pass or forced a single fumble during this three game span. They didn’t force a turnover against USC in the first meeting between these two teams either. A defense that is struggling against the pass and not forcing turnovers is a bad recipe for pointspread success in this spread range! Clay Helton took over a USC team that was reeling under Steve Sarkisian and he promptly righted the ship. Following last week’s blowout over UCLA, the Trojans fifth win in their last six games, Helton was rewarded with the permanent head coaching job; a very popular choice in the locker room. UC’s defense has improved by leaps and bounds since that loss to the Cardinal earlier and Stanford isn’t a ‘throw a bunch of new wrinkles in’ type of squad offensively. And the Trojans have proven that they can trade points with anybody, averaging more than 33 points per game in the seven games since Helton got the job. The perennially underrated Cody Kessler has NFL upside and a 27-6 TD-INT ratio for the season, completing more than 68% of his passes. Juju Smith Schuster has averaged more than 17 yards per catch on his 74 receptions. Ronald Jones, Justin Davis and Tre Madden have all averaged better than 5.4 yards per carry, with 17 rushing TD’s between them. No surprise here if USC pulls off the outright upset for their new coach….Big Ticket: Take USC. |
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11-28-15 | UCLA +3.5 v. USC | 21-40 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Take UCLA (#225) |
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11-28-15 | Ohio State v. Michigan | 42-13 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#146) This is the type of game that the betting markets generally have a hard time with. Ohio State has been power rated as an elite team all year, among the top five teams in college football. Those power rating numbers have been adjusted off their crushing loss at home to Michigan State last week, but have they been adjusted enough? Frankly, I don’t think so. Ezekiel Elliott’s postgame rant matters for a team that just had their bubble burst, producing their worst offensive showing of the Urban Meyer era. The senior leadership on this squad is clearly lacking, and now that any return trip to the College Football Playoff requires both a late season Ohio State run and lots of help from other teams, I’m not convinced that the Buckeyes can get off the mat this week. When we factor in the fact that Elliott’s criticism of the offense is perfectly legit; a team that has underachieved schematically since Tom Herman left to take the Houston job; it’s bad news against a truly elite level Wolverine defense. Michigan lost on opening day at Utah, no shame there. They lost on the bizarre final play of the game against Michigan State; no shame their either. Defensively, this team has been elite from Day 1 this year, including a dominating effort against Penn State in the second half last week. And offensively, despite a lack of explosive playmakers (with the notable exception of Jehu Chesson), the Wolverines smashmouth style has simply worn teams down. That physical, bruising nature for the Michigan offense is a problem for an Ohio State team that may not be up for a real street fight on Saturday. Look for the Wolverines to end their long drought in this rivalry. Take Michigan. |
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11-28-15 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 60 m | Show |
Take East Carolina (#154) It was a sin of omission not to bet against Cincinnati last week. I won’t make that mistake again this week! My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner fading the Bearcats two weeks ago, and the same issues that plagued Cinci then are still very much in play for their regular season finale at East Carolina. Here’s an excerpt from that anti-Tuberville write-up: “Last weeks’ heartbreaking loss at Houston has all the makings of a backbreaker for this underachieving squad. Peruse the local papers and you’ll see the same word over and over again: “Disappointment.” “Senior wide receiver Chris Moore: “It is (a disappointment), especially when going into the season you had all the predictions, and we even thought ourselves that this was probably one of the best teams we’ve had here in a while. It’s just a little bit of disappointment that we didn’t do what we were supposed to.” “Senior offensive lineman Parker Ehinger: “I’ve heard around the locker room that some of the seniors are a little bit down. As a captain I’m trying to keep everyone up. We can still fight for a good bowl game….The seniors, we’ve gone through it all. We’ve gone through a coaching change. We’ve seen a lot of stuff, ups and downs. It’s on us to keep these younger guys, some of the guys that are thinking, ‘Oh, our season might be going down the drain,’ trying to keep them up through the hard times.” “Head coach Tommy Tuberville: “It’s way disappointing where we’re at, 5-4. We have been our own worst enemy, and that’s what’s disappointing…..“It’s hard. Coming into the season, this was our chance to have one of our better teams.” Cinci’s defense got torched against Tulsa, allowing 38 points, resulting in an ATS loss. Last week, the defense didn’t show up again in a 65-27 loss at South Florida that wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate – it was 51-3 at halftime. The Bearcats flat out quit in that game, and they quit early; never a good sign for a ‘disappointing’ team heading out on the road for their regular season finale. East Carolina is rested and ready off their bye week, then a confidence inducing, much needed blowout win at UCF. The Pirates need one more win to clinch bowl eligibility, extending their three year run of bowl appearances. Head coach Ruffin McNeil, talking about a team meeting he had with his players during the bye week: “We asked them to not forget where you came from or who you are,” McNeill said of the meeting, in which he had different groups of players — seniors, walk-ons, etc. — stand up when he named them. “They start to realize when everybody stands up ... everybody’s under the same roof by plan, not by accident…..When it’s tested during tough times, that’s what will get you through, understanding what we have all put into the team. It sounds simple, but it was big for us to realize that (at UCF). We’ll do that same thing this week.” Take East Carolina. |
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11-27-15 | Navy -3 v. Houston | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Navy (#133) My clients and I cashed a winner betting against Houston last week, when their 10-0 season went down in flames with a SU loss as road favorites at UConn. This week, the Cougars are tasked with bouncing back in a ‘bubble burst’ situation on a short week against an elite Navy team who’s only loss all year came in competitive fashion against a Notre Dame squad poised for a trip to the College Football Playoff on New Year’s Eve. Even before the loss to the Huskies, Houston had been an overvalued commodity in recent weeks. They were lucky to escape with a three point win over Cinci, outgained by more than 160 yards in the process. Then they needed to rally back from a three TD deficit to beat Memphis by a single point -- right in between blowout losses for the Tigers against Temple and Navy. In other words, Houston was the only team of the trio that couldn’t put Memphis away. The Cougars 6-2 ATS start is working against them now, leaving them as an overvalued commodity moving forward. Houston’s all-everything QB Greg Ward is banged up, very limited in practice with a tender ankle. Ward was forced to sit for most of the game at UConn last week, and when he played, he was very limited, ending the game with a poorly thrown interception. Ward’s backup, Kyle Postma, is banged up too, as is stud RB Kenneth Farrow. It’s worth noting that the Cougars D hasn’t seen an option offense like Navy’s all year, and that rumors have been swirling around head coach Tom Herman all week; linked most notably to the South Carolina job. Houston’s power rating number is still sky high, but the team isn’t primed for an ‘A’ level performance here at this late stage of the campaign; not the same team that they were a month ago. Navy is the real deal; capable of out-executing their foes with senior Keenan Reynolds running the option. But the biggest surprise from the Middies this season – and why they are looking at a New Year’s Six Bowl as the highest rated non-Power 5 Conference teams – has been their defense. The Fighting Irish are the only team they’ve faced to score more than 21 points against them, with potent offenses like Memphis, Tulsa, East Carolina and Air Force all unable to penetrate the Navy stop unit. Navy has been winning games like this one all year, and I don’t expect that trend to end on Friday. Big Ticket: Take Navy. |
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11-21-15 | Tennessee v. Missouri +7 | 19-8 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Missouri (#368) It’s been a beautiful week of November weather for the Tennessee Volunteers, practicing with temperatures in the 70’s. But Saturday Night’s game in Columbia is expected to feature temperatures in the low 20’s, with winds whipping around between 15 and 25 mph. This will be the coldest conditions the Vols have seen in any game since 2003. Head coach Butch Jones is definitely concerned about the conditions: “Well, that’s challenging in terms of how you simulate it in practice, but you have to start controlling your mind. Those uncontrollable factors, that’s part of the game, and it’s being locked in that zone, having that mental focus and preparing for it, and being prepared. We’ll do a walk-through at the stadium on game day like we always do for a night game, so we’ll try to get them out there in the elements. I was hoping for a little bit of colder weather in preparation this week, but we haven’t had that.” This might not be as big a factor for a more mature, veteran team, but Tennessee is not that team. We’ve seen the Vols blow leads due to poor execution over and over again this year – the Oklahoma game, the Florida game, the Alabama game and the South Carolina game all stand out in that regard. Butch Jones’ team is still a very young squad. They’ve struggled to respond to adversity and they’ve struggled to close out victories, two giant red flags in this pointspread range in this venue. It’s surely worth noting that since the start of the 2011 campaign, nearly five full years ago, Tennessee has won only three SEC games by more than a touchdown. All three of those games came against Kentucky. They’ll have to win by more than a TD in order to cover this inflated pointspread! Here’s one more Butch Jones quote for you: “We’re facing, I believe, the stiffest challenge we’ve faced all year in terms of the completeness of their defense.” Yes, this has been a very disappointing season for Missouri, particularly on the offensive side of the football. But make no mistake about it – the Tigers defense is elite, allowing 21 points or less in nine of their previous ten games, giving up less than 15 points per game for the full season. The Tigers snapped a four game skid against BYU last week and found an offensive identity in the process; a run first team that looks to get Drew Hare moving in the pocket, making short accurate downfield throws in the passing game. But more than any other factor – the weather, Missouri’s defense, Tennessee’s propensity for blowing games – this bet is about Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel who just announced that he was retiring due to cancer. These players TRULY love their coach, especially after he stood up for them during the potential boycott last week during a showdown with the school’s administration. It’s senior day, Pinkel’s last home game and, by the way, the Tigers clinch bowl eligibility with a win. No surprise here if they pull the outright upset. Take Missouri. |
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11-21-15 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | 51-50 | Loss | -112 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Arkansas (#360) This is truly a miserable spot for the road underdog. Dan Mulllen’s squad is off a brutal loss to Alabama; their third loss in SEC play in a game they had absolutely ‘circled’ on their calendars with a chance to get back in the SEC West race. On deck, they’ve got a revenge meeting with arch rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, their regular season finale. Plan and simple -- this is not a game where we can or should expect the Bulldogs best effort. Arkansas, on the other hand, is fresh, ready and rested off their bye week. The Razorbacks have won four straight since their own deflating loss to Alabama; playing their best football of the season down the stretch – just like they did last year. Arkansas physically pummels teams, imposing their will behind one of the beefiest offensive lines in college football; a smashmouth style that does not bode well for a ‘bad spot’ team like the Bulldogs this week. And Arkansas is taking this game very, very seriously, looking to move past the Bulldogs in the SEC West pecking order. The Hogs lost a tight one score game to the Bulldogs last year, and lost in OT to Mississippi State the year before that. After beating Auburn, Ole Miss and LSU in their last three SEC games, Brett Bielema’s squad is oozing confidence at this late stage of the campaign. Mississippi State lacks a signature win, because they haven’t been good enough to beat their three best foes. Sure, they blew out Kentucky, Troy, Northwestern State, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss and escaped past Auburn. Not one of those wins is as good as those recent Arkansas wins over the Rebels and Tigers in their last two SEC tilts. And with Hogs QB Brandon Allen averaging more than 9.2 yards per pass ATTEMPT, thanks to opposing defenses loading the box in an effort to stop Alex Collins (6.1 yards per carry) between the tackles, the Razorbacks have enough big play, quick strike ability to win this game by a TD or more. Take Arkansas |
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11-21-15 | Washington -15 v. Oregon State | 52-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#393) You can stick a fork in the Oregon State football team, because they are done. The Beavers are 0-7 in PAC-12 play. Six of those losses have come by more than two touchdowns, and the only one that didn’t – a four point home loss to Colorado – was the first PAC-12 win for the Buffs since 2013 and their first PAC-12 road win since 2012. In other words, the Beavers have been largely non-competitive against anybody. Oregon State got shut out by UCLA in their last home game; the same injury riddled Bruins defense that couldn’t stop Washington State last week or the aforementioned Colorado offense the week before the Beavers game. They scored 13 against the Buffs in their previous home game; a Colorado team that has allowed an average of more than 38 points in their other seven previous PAC-12 contests; allowing 35 or more in six of those games. Their QB of the future, Seth Collins, is out for the year. His replacement, Nick Mitchell, has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns while completing less than half of his passes. Oregon State has no downfield gamebreakers to stretch opposing defenses. Their leading rusher is Collins, who hasn’t seen the field in nearly a month. All of this is very bad news against Washington’s elite defense. The Huskies have shut down one potent offense after the next this year. They held Boise to 16 at Boise, held USC to 12 at USC and held Arizona to a single field goal in a 49-3 blowout; proving that they can beat teams by margin. Oregon State lost 37-13 to Washington last year and 69-27 in 2013. The Beavers offense is weaker this year, and Washington’s defense is stronger. Oregon State is likely to struggle to reach double figures here. And Oregon State’s defense is toast, particularly against the run, dead last in the PAC-12 while allowing more than 212 rushing yards per game. That’s bad news against Myles Gaskin, Washington’s explosive running back, with four 100+ yard rushing games in the last six weeks; averaging just shy of six yards per carry for the season. Oregon’s State’s pass defense is a mess too, suffering a barrage of injuries in recent weeks. Last week, a true frosh walk-on started in the secondary, a clear indicator of how thin the Beavers stop unit is these days. All the talk coming out of Corvallis this week – with senior day on Saturday – has been about player development for next year. Washington head coach Chris Peterson isn’t taking Oregon State lightly. “It always comes back to us. We always know the opponent is going to show up, and they are going to play very, very hard. Everybody in this league does that.” But Peterson also knows that his team needs a win here to stay alive for bowl eligibility. And Peterson knows that the Huskies QB Jake Browning, coming off an ugly four INT showing at Arizona State last week, is primed to bounce back strong, lighting up the Beavers bottom tier stop unit. Expect a blowout, with a massive mismatch in the trenches on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Take Washington. |
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11-21-15 | Houston v. Connecticut +10 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Connecticut (#338) I’m going to give you two sets of quotes here. First, from Houston. Head coach Tom Herman: “Whatever your definition of a trap game is you can circle Houston versus UConn because that certainly has all the makings of it. This is the definition of a trap game.” Senior linebacker Elandon Roberts, talking about the pressure the undefeated Cougars face heading into their showdown with Navy next week, with a potential spot in a Power 5 Bowl game at stake (potentially the Fiesta Bowl, or Peach Bowl): “That was the goal coming into this year, being 0-0 each game. It's just a culture that we keep going. I would say 'pressure' because we turn up the level each week, so it's just the mentality floating around the program." Reading between the lines there has me convinced that the fact everyone is talking about the pressure and the trap spot for the Cougars means that they are feeling it themselves. Meanwhile, here’s what we’re hearing from the UConn side of the equation, with the Huskies fresh, rested and ready off their bye week; looking to gain bowl eligibility which has eluded them since 2010. UConn head coach Bob Diaco: “If you can't get up for this game, get up for this practice…..We do not have a person who is not up for this game. This group is on fire for this work — and they understand how hard the work is going to be, but that's what makes it so exciting. You do something like this, that's great. Then you know you really did something…… To be in November and have a real relevance to achievement, goals, postseason play, all things like that, just that piece, we've taken the next step in our program." Offensive lineman Tommy Hopkins: “It's a big opportunity to face an undefeated team. We win and get bowl eligible, so it's important we prepare and play hard. It's a huge game.” The Huskies had a chance to heal some wounds last week. Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs, running back Arkeel Newsome, safety Andrew Adams and linebacker Junior Joseph were among those who needed the break after 10 straight weeks of games. All four are key players for the Huskies; all four look to be at or near 100% after battling injuries for weeks prior to the bye. UConn’s offense can’t trade points with anybody, but the Huskies defense is no joke. They won two straight before the bye, allowing only 16 points in the process. That bad news for a Houston team with a banged up QB (Greg Ward was very limited with a tender ankle in practice all week). The Cougs are coming off a remarkable, ultra-intense, come-from-behind-in-the-fourth-quarter one point win against Memphis last week; a game that Herman called a “very hard-fought, physically and emotionally draining game.” It’s been balmy in Houston all week, but it’s going to be on the chilly side in Storrs on Saturday; not ideal conditions for a bunch of kids from Texas coming off a huge win, with enormous pressure on their shoulders. I do NOT think the Cougars are capable of winning this one by more than one score, if they win it at all. Take UConn. Diaco: "We have talented players. We've got talented coaches. Stick with the plan. Create a plan you believe to be a sound plan, and then stick with it and keep hitting the rock. That's what we do.” Take UConn. |
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11-20-15 | Cincinnati v. South Florida OVER 64 | 27-65 | Win | 100 | 33 h 13 m | Show | |
Take South Florida – Cincinnati OVER (#315-316) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner betting against the Bearcats defense last week. Cinci hung 49 points on Tulsa, notching 33 first downs and more than 650 yards of offense while scoring TD’s on every red zone opportunity, not settling for field goals. They’ve scored at least 30 in four straight contests and seven of their last eight. QB Gunner Kiel will be playing on Sunday’s. Nine different receivers average more than one catch per game. Three different running backs have more than 600 rushing yards, all three averaging more than five yards per carry. This Bearcats offense is no joke, and they’re very capable of wearing teams down in the second half. But Cinci’s defense is another story entirely, particularly on the road. As indicated above, Cinci scored seven TD’s last week and they still didn’t cover the spread. That defense has been noticeably worse in hostile environments. Miami-Ohio hung a season high 33 on the Bearcats D. Memphis hung 53 on them, BYU 38. Their next strong defensive effort on the road this year will be their first. USF, too, has developed at least a modest home/road dichotomy. But the Bulls dichotomy isn’t ‘defense bad on the road’ like Cinci – it’s ‘offense good at home’! They’ve hung 38+ four times in five previous home games. QB Quinton Flowers home/road splits are surprisingly sharp: 64% completions and only two interceptions at home. RB Marlon Mack is a legitimate playmaker and a tough stop for the Bearcats D, making Flowers that much more effective. And it’s worth noting that this is the strongest offense they’ve faced since losing at Florida State back in early September. I’m expecting some real fireworks on Friday Night, sending this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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11-14-15 | Washington State +10.5 v. UCLA | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Washington State (#165) My clients and I cashed with Washington State as big road underdogs at Cal. We cashed with Washington State when the Cougars won outright at Arizona as TD underdogs. And I expect to cash again with Mike Leach’s Cougs this week as double digit road underdogs at UCLA, their very best pointspread role. The results don’t lie. Wassou has been THE undervalued commodity in the PAC-12 this year, riding a 6-0 ATS hot streak into the weekend. They’ve been road dogs four times this year; winning three of those games in SU fashion (including at Oregon!) and staying within a single score in their lone SU road loss. This isn’t new or different – the Cougs have been consistent moneymakers in this road dog role, suffering only three ATS losses in their last 15 tries. We’ve seen Washington State hang toe-to-toe with heavyweights like Stanford. We saw them beat Arizona State by two TD’s last week. This team is no joke, regardless of the consistent betting market disrespect towards them. The key to this wager is the Cougars strong downfield passing game facing off against UCLA’s injury depleted defense. The Bruins are an overvalued commodity right here following a shutout win against hapless Oregon State last week. Don’t expect another shutout anytime soon. Prior to last week, they gave up 31 on this field to a sluggish Colorado offense, allowing 200 rushing yards and 300 passing yards in the process. The Bruins defense has lost their best lineman to a season ending injury. Their linebacking corps is completely depleted. And no one from this secondary has faced Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ offense before, lacking the experience factor against a fairly unique attack. Washington State’s QB, Luke Falk, is positively oozing with confidence these days thanks to an impressive 33 TD to 7 INT ratio this year, throwing for more than 3700 yards in the process. The Cougs have scored at least 28 in every PAC-12 game, and both SU losses were ATS wins in defeats by less than a touchdown. Even Wassou’s much maligned defense has been stepping up of late, forcing at least two turnovers in seven of their last eight contests. It’s surely worth noting UCLA’s inconsistency – they’ve failed to cover the spread following every ATS win since the first two games of the season. It’s also worth noting that this is not one of the PAC-12’s stronger homefields, with UCLA managing only a single pointspread victory on this field all year on the heels of their 2-4 ATS mark at home under Jim Mora last year. Washington State lost by only eight on their last visit to the Rose Bowl in the lone previous Mora vs. Leach matchup, and I’m expecting another competitive contest this time around. Take Washington State. |
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11-14-15 | Tulsa +18 v. Cincinnati | Top | 38-49 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tulsa (#119) My clients and I have been on Tulsa in each of their last two games, cashing with the Hurricanes on the road at SMU, but coming up short with Tulsa last week as they won by only 15 as 16.5 point favorites over UCF. First, don’t be fooled for a moment by that ‘closer than expected’ final score last week. Tulsa dominated early, leading 24-3 at halftime. But the team had no idea of how to play with a big lead, turning the ball over on three straight possessions to open the second half, opening the door for a UCF rally. Tulsa stayed poised and took another three score lead, but their prevent defense on the last drive allowed a late Knights score to stay under the number. Even though the Hurricanes didn’t cash, they re-affirmed my opinion of them as a ‘bet-on’ squad here in November. Tulsa has only lost one game all year by more than two touchdowns, yet the Hurricanes are 18 point underdogs as I write this. They’ve gone 4-0 ATS on the road, including an impressive showing at Oklahoma, hanging 38 on the Sooners in a surprisingly contested game. And every quote I’m seeing from the Tulsa locker room is ‘bet-on type quote; a hungry, talented squad desperate to end a three year bowl drought. Hurricanes head coach Philip Montgomery: “Our vision of this season was not just to come in here and compete, but to come in here and win. We had every intention of, you know, let’s get bowl eligible and see where the chips fall. You know, if we got a chance at the end to be in that competitive fight for the conference title, we want to be in the midst of that, and so I’m not surprised by it. That’s our plan; that was our mission. We’re close to accomplishing the first part of that. You know we got three games remaining, you know, our focus is to go try to win all three of them” More Montgomery: “Our focus all week has been about getting on a roll, putting together a stretch of good wins. Our guys, they’re in that mindset right now….use this momentum, go attack everything that’s in front of us….. We still got to go get one more. We’re taking them a week at a time but this is a big one (at Cincinnati). I’m excited for our football team.” On paper, Cinci is a much better team that Tulsa. But games aren’t played on paper, and Cinci is NOT primed to bring their ‘A” game this week – even on Senior Day. Last weeks’ heartbreaking loss at Houston has all the makings of a backbreaker for this underachieving squad Peruse the local papers and you’ll see the same word over and over again: “Disappointment.” Senior wide receiver Chris Moore: “It is (a disappointment), especially when going into the season you had all the predictions, and we even thought ourselves that this was probably one of the best teams we’ve had here in a while. It’s just a little bit of disappointment that we didn’t do what we were supposed to.” Senior offensive lineman Parker Ehinger: “I’ve heard around the locker room that some of the seniors are a little bit down. As a captain I’m trying to keep everyone up. We can still fight for a good bowl game….The seniors, we’ve gone through it all. We’ve gone through a coaching change. We’ve seen a lot of stuff, ups and downs. It’s on us to keep these younger guys, some of the guys that are thinking, ‘Oh, our season might be going down the drain,’ trying to keep them up through the hard times.” Head coach Tommy Tuberville: “It’s way disappointing where we’re at, 5-4. We have been our own worst enemy, and that’s what’s disappointing…..“It’s hard. Coming into the season, this was our chance to have one of our better teams.” Just to make this perfectly clear. The underdog is talking about building on positive momentum and becoming bowl eligible with a road upset win here. The favorite is talking about their season in the past tense and telling everyone who will listen how disappointed they are, struggling to get motivated for senior day. Yea, I’ll take +18 with the dog in this situation and I’ll take it large! Big Ticket: Take Tulsa. |
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11-14-15 | NC State v. Florida State OVER 54 | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Florida State – NC State OVER (#157-158) I have no hesitation looking for misleading statistical profiles to ‘fade’ here in November. Based on pure stats, NC State has an elite level defense, one of the top stop units in the country. But the Wolfpack haven’t stepped up in class very much this season, to put it mildly. It’s not hard putting up elite level defensive numbers against the likes of Troy (early season, before they found a QB), Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Wake Forest and Boston College, all offensive bottom feeders here in 2015. NC State has faced a couple of tests against better offenses. They lost at Louisville and then lost at Virginia Tech the following week, allowing more than 200 rushing yards in both of those contests. In their one ‘real’ test against a dynamic offensive foe (Clemson), NC State allowed seven touchdowns at home, flying over the total with plenty of room to spare. This defense is NOT as good as the stats (and hence the relatively low total) would indicate. I’m not convinced that NC State is going to get many stops this week either. They gave up 56 to Florida State last year and 49 to the Seminoles in 2013, both high scoring shootouts that flew Over the total. FSU RB Dalvin Cook is healthy again, coming off a truly impressive 194 rushing yard effort against Clemson. And the Seminoles will have a healthy senior QB in Everett Golson back behind center this week; opening up the passing game as well. Head coach Jimbo Fisher after practice yesterday: “Thursday practice, it was the best one we’ve had, offense especially. (The quarterback situation has been) good. I’ve been pleased. We’ll start Everett. He had a real good week of practice and I liked what he did.” This team hung 45 on Syracuse and 41 on Louisville in their last two home games, effectively running the ball to set up the passing game in both contests. No surprise here if the Seminoles get into the 40’s again here. But NC State is more than capable of trading points with Florida State for extended stretches of this ballgame. Their top two running backs are gone (one injury, one dismissed from the program, leaving the bulk of the offense on the broad shoulders of senior QB Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has avoided mistakes like the plague, throwing only two interceptions in 250 pass attempts. Nine different receivers have at least one catch of more than 20 yards. This offense hung 41 on the Seminoles last year, gaining more than 500 yards in the process. Anything close to that level of performance on Saturday and we’ll cash this Over with ease. Take the Over. |
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11-14-15 | Texas +9 v. West Virginia | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#167) Since blowing out Maryland back in Week 3, West Virginia hasn’t covered a single pointspread in any role; failing ATS as both a favorite and an underdog. Their three wins against FBS competition this year? A worn down Texas Tech team after ten straight games without a bye; a struggling Maryland team without their starting quarterback and a Georgia Southern squad playing without their starting quarterback as well. That’s it! So why on earth is this team laying more than a touchdown against Texas this week? The Mountaineers offense flat out didn’t work against the Charlie Strong’s stop unit last year. Texas won the game 33-16, West Virginia’s lowest scoring game of the entire season. It wasn’t even that close – the game was 24-3 after three quarters before some garbage time yards and points for Mountaineers. In the two meetings in 2012 and 2013, we saw tight, hotly contested games decided by a TD or less each time. So to see this pointspread get bet up to more than a touchdown has this bettor excited about putting a Longhorns ticket in my pocket. West Virginia’s defense has to make a major adjustment this week after facing four straight uptempo, pass-first offenses. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson: “The last four weeks have been pass-first. This is a whole different enemy. They like to get big, play fullbacks, run the football and use tight ends for blocking. They have big backs: (John Gray) is 215 pounds and (D’Onta Foreman) is about 240. It’s a whole different system for us to get ready for and simulate in practice." West Virginia’s offense plays right into the strength of the Longhorns D. We think of Dana Holgorsen as an uptempo, pass first kind of guy, but this year’s Mountaineers team is running more than 60% of the time, including a 57-24 run-pass ratio last week. Holgorsen: “We made a decision a couple years ago to move toward this direction with what we’re doing up front. why (offensive line coach) Ron (Crook) is here, because he knew a lot of that ‘put your hand down in the dirt and go forward with it.’ I’d prefer it not to be the only thing that we’re doing. I’m not naive; I understand that we have to do better in the pass game.” Texas’s defense is no joke against the run, something Oklahoma found out when the Sooners suffered their lone loss of the season. In fact, the Longhorns D hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game against any foe since their dismal showing against high octane TCU. And while Texas’s offense has been hit or miss, this matchup works for their run-based attack. So does the situation. Coach Strong: When you're dealing with a young team, you can't build them up. I think a lot of times they start believing it and listen to it……They've been beat up so much about (this season's struggles) and heard about it so much, so they understand how critical (Saturday's game) is.” Look for the Longhorns to be very ‘live’ to win this game when the fourth quarter rolls around. Take Texas. |
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11-07-15 | South Florida +4 v. East Carolina | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take South Florida (#339) East Carolina’s recent slump is no accident. The Pirates have been riddled with key injuries, arguably the most banged up team in the AAC right now even with leading rusher Chris Hairston expected back in the lineup on Saturday. With a pair of key injuries on the offensive line, head coach Ruffin McNeal made a rare public comment this week about how his offense has a confidence problem. The defense came through with a first quarter pick six last week, but the offense, led by backup quarterbacks James Summers and Blake Kemp (starter Kurt Benkert has been out all year) didn’t put together a scoring drive until garbage time in the fourth quarter. The Pirates are suffering from turnover woes and a weak ‘dink and dunk’ level passing game without a clear cut starter at QB. Both of those are particularly bad news against the hungry, focused Bulls. South Florida has made HUGE strides in Year 3 of the Willie Taggart era. Their 1-3 start against a tough non-conference slate (and undefeated Memphis) is a long way in the rear view mirror now, and the Bulls have won three of their last four in impressive fashion; including a road win at the same UConn squad that just blew out East Carolina. Much like his tenure at Western Kentucky, Taggart’s tutelage has taken time to take hold, but the results are very clear – this team is getting better, week by week, something the markets have struggled to react to. But USF suffered a bad loss to Navy last week, in large part due to an injury to QB Brandon Flowers who was largely ineffective with a leg injury. Here are the quotes coming out of practice earlier in the week. Flowers: “I'd say I'm back to doing what I usually do.” Taggart: "I saw him take off today and was like, 'Okay, we'll be okay. We'll be fine. He's back.'" Flowers, about the Navy debacle: “I put that game on me. Didn't make a lot of the right reads. I was thinking about the injury I had and I shouldn't..... I fault myself on offense and can't do it again." Flowers is healthy and big play RB Marlon Mack (6.2 yards per carry!) is back at full strength as well. The Bulls defense has been a unit of strength, both on the line and in the secondary. Let’s not forget that USF leads the conference in both kickoff return and punt return yardage; featuring some of the best special teams in the conference, helping them win the field position battle on a weekly basis. Nor should we underestimate how much this game means to South Florida – a win here put them in position to end a bowl drought that dates to 2010. I’m expecting the SU win, which makes the +4 we’re getting worthy of a Big Ticket wager. Big Ticket: Take USF (South Florida) |
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11-07-15 | Michigan State -6 v. Nebraska | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#421) This game is being priced like a competitive contest, but it has all the makings of a mismatch. The betting markets are giving us a cheap price to support the vastly superior team for three basic reasons; neither of which holds the least bit of validity in my eyes. First, a hard look at the season long statistical averages of these two teams shows, in theory, that they are basically even. On a yards per play or yards per game basis, Nebraska and Michigan State don’t have a huge discrepancy. Secondly, the Spartans have NOT been an ATS success story this year, covering only two pointspreads in their first eight games. Meanwhile, five of the Cornhuskers six losses have come by five points or less, a litany of last second touchdowns dooming them to defeat. Lastly the long term database research shows that road favorites off a bye are a negative expectation subset. All three of those reasons are absolute nonsense in my opinion. I’m not making many college football bets based on pure numbers. In fact, I tend to make many more bets AGAINST misleading statistical profiles than I do in support of those highly suspect profiles. 8-0 Michigan State is elite, despite some mediocre stats. 3-6 Nebraska isn’t likely to get off the matt following an extended series of brutal defeats. The season long yardage numbers are completely irrelevant…but not to the betting markets! Michigan State’s repeated ATS failures as chalk has largely come in the ‘double digit favorite’ range – five of their six ATS losses have come when laying -12 or more; five of their eight wins have come by a TD or more, including two of their three road wins. And while I do respect long term database research; I’m not going to talk myself out of a ‘mismatch’ type wager without a much better reason that that! Nebraska is not coming back from the dead. They were blown off the field at (previously) 1-6 Purdue last week, allowing the Boilermakers to hang 55 on them in the process. Their defense has created a grand total of two interceptions in five Big 10 games, without facing a single top notch QB in any of those contests. First year head coach Mike Riley is under fire, and the Huskers new defensive schemes under DC Mark Banker quite simply aren’t working. To make matters even worse, Nebraska has been besieged with injuries. 20 different players have started on the defensive side of the ball this year. Four starters are out this week. Leading rusher Terrell Newby has a bum ankle. QB Tommy Armstrong has been limited in practice all week with a foot injury. I don’t trust the Huskers to get stops. I don’t trust the Huskers to score points in bunches against Sparty’s top notch stop unit. And I don’t trust this team to respond well to in-game adversity, expecting a ‘here we go again’ mentality should things go wrong. Michigan State is as healthy as they’ve been since September, rested and read off their bye week. At 8-0, led by NFL bound Connor Cook at quarterback, there’s a world of difference between the Spartans mentality and ability to respond to adversity compared to what we’re seeing in Lincoln these days. On their last visit to Nebraska – also coming off a bye week – the Spartans led wire-2-wire, winning by two TD’s. A similar result here would be no surprise to this bettor! Take Michigan State.. |
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11-07-15 | Central Florida v. Tulsa -16.5 | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tulsa (#372) It’s been a long, ugly season for UCF. They’ve lost every game. Their longtime coach quit on them midseason, and his top assistant didn’t get the interim head coaching job. Former QB coach Danny Barrett is the acting head coach and his first game on the job wasn’t exactly uplifting. The Knights went to Cincinnati and trailed 49-0 before a garbage time TD. Their defense allowed more than 700 yards and didn’t force a punt. Their offense was inept for extended stretches. And this quote really stands out when it comes to a beaten down team’s mentality, from star CB Shaq Griffin: “Before the game, great. Everybody was ready to play and play fast. As soon as they got the first touchdown, you could see it (the loss of emotion) on everybody’s face.” Things don’t get any easier for the downtrodden Knights this week as they travel to Tulsa, in a key game for bowl eligibility for the Golden Hurricane. UCF QB Justin Holman has struggled mightily since his return from a hand injury: nine interceptions and only two touchdowns in his four games since he got back on the field. The receiving corps has a collective case of the dropsies. No running back has gained even 300 yards. This team is remarkably young – their 33 first time starts this year leads the nation. Kicker Matt Wright missed a pair of field goals last week. UCF ranks dead last in the country in scoring, and their defense showed a ton of quit last week. My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting Tulsa last week in a road win at SMU, as they hung 40 on the Mustangs. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “Tulsa is no joke on offense. QB Dane Evans has lit up quality defenses: 427 yards and four TD’s without an interception at Oklahoma, for example. Last week against a Memphis stop unit that had shut down Ole Miss in their previous game, Evans threw for 421 yards and another four TD’s. The Hurricanes are loaded with skill position talent surrounding him, even after NFL prospect WR Keevan Lucas got hurt. Keyarris Garrett, Josh Atkinson and frosh playmaker Justin Hobbs provide big play ability in the passing game. While starting RB Zack Langer is banged up, his top two backups both average more than five yards per carry. I’m not expecting many Tulsa punts here.” And I’m certainly not expecting many Tulsa punts this week. This game is totaled at 64; UCF has scored more than 16 points a grand total of once all year. ‘Quit’ teams aren’t likely to show up in their road finale against high octane foes. And a hungry home favorite that lost 31-7 last November against this very opponent isn’t going to take this foe lightly! Take Tulsa. |
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11-07-15 | Penn State v. Northwestern -1.5 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Northwestern (#360) To say that the schedule has been rather friendly for Penn State is something of an understatement. They’ve played only one true road game all year, a game they lost by four touchdowns straight up and double digits ATS. They also played a ‘road’ game at Temple (Penn State had more fans there, by a wide margin), a game the Nittany Lions lost both SU and ATS by double digits. Their game ‘at’ Maryland was actually played in Baltimore; once again with a large contingent of Penn State supporters in the stands. Penn State snuck away with a one point (non-cove ring win). It’s surely worth noting that their three games outside of Happy Valley this year correlate exactly with their three weakest defensive showings. James Franklin’s squad allowed at least 27 points in each of those contests, in sharp contrast to their ten points per game allowance at home. And it’s also worth noting that their biggest defensive struggles have come against dual threat mobile QB’s; exactly what they face in Clayton Thorson this week. Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg will play on Sunday’s either next year or the year after. But the supporting cast around him on the offensive side of the football is severely limited. Penn State’s offensive line play has ranged between abysmal and below average. Their wide receiver depth is non-existent – their third leading receiver has five catches on the season, with only Chris Godwin stretching opposing defenses. And, after exploding against some weaker defenses early in the season, leading rusher Saquon Barkley was held in check by Maryland and Illinois over the last two weeks. It’s surely worth noting that Penn State won’t have a bye until next week – this will be their tenth straight Saturday without a break. That’s a big deal for a program that still lacks quality depth thanks to the post-Paterno sanctions. Last year, just prior to their first bye week, Penn State lost 29-6 at home to these same Wildcats. This is an optimal spot for Northwestern, rested and ready following their bye week. The Wildcats remember last year’s late season collapse well, closing the campaign in the midst of a 2-5 skid that included a 48-7 no-show loss at Iowa following their mid-season bye. They snapped a two game skid with a solid road win at Nebraska prior to the bye, and their strong stop unit is poised to give the Penn State’s offense trouble. I made my personal wager supporting Northwestern on the moneyline, laying a little bit of extra juice to ensure that a SU Wildcats win puts cash in my pocket. Take Northwestern. |
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11-06-15 | Temple v. SMU OVER 50.5 | Top | 60-40 | Win | 100 | 52 h 14 m | Show |
Take SMU – Temple OVER (#319-320) When these two teams met in Dallas two years ago, we saw a 59-49 shootout that flew Over the total. SMU had 728 yards of offense; Temple had 593. The two teams combined for 16 scores, with only eight punts. Yes, Temple’s defense is waaaay better now than it was two years ago. But make no mistake about it – so is the Owls offense. And with the betting markets pounding the Under in early week betting, giving us – by far – the lowest SMU total of the season to work with this week, I have no hesitation to pull the trigger on an Over wager on Friday Night. My clients and I cashed a winner betting against SMU last week. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “SMU had one of the worst defenses in all of college football last year and that stop unit lacks everything again this year, short on size, speed, talent and depth. Chad Morris’ stop unit allowed 48+ five times in their first six games and the only reason they allowed “only” 38 points last week was because South Florida’s best offensive weapon, Marlon Mack, didn’t suit up. Playing their ninth straight game (now tenth) without a bye, I don’t expect the Mustangs to be able to control the line of scrimmage on defense, not even a little bit.” Temple head coach Matt Rhule blasted his team after what he thought was a lethargic effort in practice on Tuesday, noting that the Owls were struggling to put their loss to Notre Dame in the rear view mirror. I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Temple shows up flat and gets gashed here by SMU’s offense. The Mustangs have a solid QB in Matt Davis and an aggressive, downfield passing game led by NFL prospect WR Courtland Sutton, and Temple’s defense is more than a bit banged up following that battle with the Fighting Irish. SMU plays fast; something Temple hasn’t seen much of their year either. But Temple is laying double digits on the road here for a reason. The Mustangs defense is truly weak, and the Owls offense is vastly underrated. PJ Walker is now a third year starter at quarterback, capable of completing downfield throws in a way that he couldn’t last year. And while big play RB Jahad Thomas is banged up, no sure thing to play, the Owls have solid depth behind him, capable of repeated success on the ground against this bottom tier stop unit. Take the Over. |
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10-31-15 | Stanford v. Washington State OVER 61 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 52 m | Show |
Take Stanford – Washington State OVER (#149-150) My clients and I have cashed winning bets supporting either Washington State or the Washington State Over three times in the last four weeks. In this instance, the Over is the superior play for one key reason – the Cougars aren’t primed to shut down the Cardinal. That being said, Washington State’s Air Raid offense is capable of moving the ball with their passing game, setting the stage for what should be a relatively high scoring shootout. The Cardinal have scored 31+ in every game since their opener at Northwestern. They’re balanced on offense, with senior QB Kevin Hogan more than capable of winging it downfield while Christian McCaffrey is a dynamic talent both running the football and catching passes out of the backfield. The Cardinal have scored 55 and 44 on their last two visits to Pullman and they ran for 5.8 yards per carry against the Cougs last year. Meanwhile, Washington State’s undersized defense has allowed 31+ in every FBS game this year except against low scoring Wyoming. They wore down in the desert heat at Arizona last week, allowing TD drives on each of the Wildcats last three possessions, and I would expect that fatigue to carry over here. Read this article from the local papers in Washington to understand exactly why the Cardinal offense is primed to give Wassou troubles: http://www.spokesman.com/cougs/stories/2015/oct/29/stanford-beef-gives-cougars-a-ton-of-reasons-for-c/ But this is the best Washington State offense that Mike Leach has had since he arrived in Pullman. QB Luke Flak threw six touchdown passes last week, completing throws to eleven different receivers, a very diverse passing catching crew. Stanford’s rebuilt defense (don’t forget that the Cardinal had four defensive starters drafted into the NFL last Spring, while losing eight defensive starters overall) has shown vulnerability to downfield passing games – both USC and UCLA moved the football against them. The betting markets have bet this total down from the opener, noting that Stanford’s ball control style makes for a game with fewer possessions. That being said, Stanford has cashed four Overs in their last five games; Washington State has cashed three straight Overs, and I would expect the majority of possessions in this matchup will produce points, not punts. Take the Over. |
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10-31-15 | Tulsa -2.5 v. SMU | 40-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Tulsa (#191) At one point, earlier this season, the Mustangs appeared capable of trading points with anybody; good news considering how bad their defense was. Because make no mistake about it – SMU had one of the worst defenses in all of college football last year and that stop unit lacks everything again this year, short on size, speed, talent and depth. Chad Morris’ stop unit allowed 48+ five times in their first six games and the only reason they allowed “only” 38 points last week was because South Florida’s best offensive weapon, Marlon Mack, didn’t suit up. Tulsa is no joke on offense. QB Dane Evans has lit up quality defenses: 427 yards and four TD’s without an interception at Oklahoma, for example. Last week against a Memphis stop unit that had shut down Ole Miss in their previous game, Evans threw for 421 yards and another four TD’s. The Hurricanes are loaded with skill position talent surrounding him, even after NFL prospect WR Keevan Lucas got hurt. Keyarris Garrett, Josh Atkinson and frosh playmaker Justin Hobbs provide big play ability in the passing game. While starting RB Zack Langer is banged up, his top two backups both average more than five yards per carry. Tulsa was awful last year – just awful – and they still hung 38 on SMU, beating the Mustangs by double digits; their only win of the season after opening day. I’m not expecting many Tulsa punts here. So the only remaining handicapping question is whether SMU is capable of trading scores with Tulsa for the full 60 minutes. Yes, this defense allowed 66 points at home to Memphis last week, giving up more than 700 total yards. That being said, they still forced six punts. And SMU’s offense isn’t Memphis’s offense, not even close. The Mustangs have been held to their three lowest point totals of the season in their last three games after lighting up Baylor and TCU back in September. They were badly beaten in the trenches while losing their fifth straight game at USF last weekend, held to a season low 14 points with QB Matt Davis pulled in the second half. WR Courtland Sutton is a dangerous downfield weapon, but the talent around him is still subpar. Playing their ninth straight game without a bye, I don’t expect the Mustangs to be able to control the line of scrimmage consistently here either, setting the stage for what should be a relatively comfortable Hurricanes road win. Take Tulsa. |
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10-31-15 | Boise State v. UNLV +20 | 55-27 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
Take UNLV (#202) This is the mother of all flat spots for Boise State. The Broncos have already seen their major bowl chances slip away following their second loss of the season, blasted by Utah State in a turnover filled debacle in their last road game. This will be Boise’s ninth straight week without a bye, a bye that’s coming right after this game. And boy, the Broncos need a bye, a VERY banged up football team right now. Boise isn’t likely to have either of their starting offensive tackles available for this game, with senior NFL prospect Rees Odhiambo suffering a broken ankle last week and junior Mario Yakoo very questionable with a foot injury. They’ve already lost their starting quarterback Ryan Finley, as well as starters like safety Dylan Sumner-Gardner, cornerback Donte Deayon and middle linebacker Tanner Vallejo. DE Jabril Frazier is hurt, as is DE Rondell McNair. These are not minor injuries! And Boise doesn’t appear to be taking UNLV very seriously. No surprise there – the only two recent meetings have been Broncos blowouts (32-7 in 2012 and 48-21 in 2011). The headline from the Boise papers talked about how the Broncos should have an easy time beating a team with a high school coach. At 2-5 this year, coming off a 2-11 season last year, the Rebels haven’t done enough for Boise to notice. But here in Las Vegas, we’ve noticed what Tony Sanchez has done in his first year on the job, revitalizing and transforming this sad sack squad into a VASTLY improved ballclub. UNLV is coming off a pair of heartbreakers, losing in OT to San Jose State, and losing on a last minute field goal at Fresno; both games played without starting QB Eric Decker and a whole host of injured Rebels. Well, Decker is back this week, and all reports coming out of Rebel practices indicate that UNLV is primed to make some noise on Saturday, rested and ready coming out of their bye week. The national media isn’t familiar with that ‘high school coach’ Tony Sanchez yet. That same media wasn’t familiar with Gus Malzahn (now at Auburn) or Art Briles (now at Baylor) when they were ‘high school’ coaches either. This is a statement game for the home team and a flat spot for the near- three TD road favorite. Count me in! Take UNLV. |
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10-24-15 | Washington State +7.5 v. Arizona | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Washington State (#411) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ wire-2-wire winner supporting Washington State as underdogs at Cal earlier this month. We cashed a ‘wrong side’ winner with the Wassou – Oregon Over the following week, getting lucky in OT. It was a true ‘sin of omission’ not to release the Cougars as home favorites last week in their win and cover over Oregon State, but the Cougs STILL offer line value this week as they travel to Arizona; a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word. This is a nightmarish matchup for RichRod’s Wildcats, currently ranked #118 in passing yards allowed this season. Here’s a brief excerpt from the local papers in Tucson this week: “The Wildcats might be short-handed in the secondary, though — corner DaVonte' Neal (hamstring) and safety Tellas Jones (concussion) are questionable to play in Saturday's 1 p.m. Homecoming game at Arizona Stadium. Also questionable: star running back Nick Wilson (foot) and defensive lineman Parker Zellers (knee). Receiver Tyrell Johnson (hamstring) is doubtful and linebackers Scooby Wright (foot) and Derrick Turituri (hip) are out.” The Wildcats are allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt, the second-worst total in the Pac-12. Cluster injuries in the secondary won’t help those numbers. And Arizona’s pass rush has been largely non-existent, notching just 13 sacks in their first seven games (no bye week at all this year for the tired, banged up Wildcats!) Washington St, running Mike Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ offense, has thrown more pass attempts than any team in the country this year. QB Luke Falk threw six TDs last week in the first half! He leads the PAC-12 in passing yards per game, attempts and completions, throwing to an undersized but speedy receiving corps. This is not a good matchup for the home favorite! There’s a real experience edge for the road team as well. Wassou pulled the outright upset when they visited Tucson two years ago. All eleven offensive starters on the field this week have been running Leach’s system for at least three years. Arizona’s banged up secondary is likely to rely on true freshmen Sammy Morrison and Jace Whittaker this week, neither of whom have a lick of collegiate big game experience. Coach Rich Rod is nervous already: “The young guys have to grow up in a hurry. We’ve got to play with more confidence at every position.” Easier said than done, coach! Take Washington State. |
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10-24-15 | Hawaii v. Nevada -7 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#410) It’s hard to picture a worse spot for Hawaii than this one. The Warriors are playing their fifth road game in a seven week span without the benefit of a bye week. For some teams with shorter commutes to their road tilts, it might not matter as much. But for Hawaii, making repeated long flights to the mainland – they travelled home from New Mexico last week – all those miles really start to add up. Norm Chow’s squad is winless in MWC play after suffering a devastating defeat last week. They led the game throughout the second half, but they missed a short 22 yard game-clinching field goal, then allowed a last minute TD drive to lose by a single point. For a squad that has been physically manhandled in losses to Wisconsin, Ohio State and San Diego State in the previous three weeks, last week’s last minute loss was a real backbreaker. And with the Warriors lengthy injury report adding new bodies each week, even the expected return of starting QB Max Wittig isn’t likely to be a major boost for this struggling, banged up squad. How banged up is Hawaii? Here’s a quick cut-and-paste from the local papers in Honolulu: “Running back Mel Davis, wideout Quinton Pedroza, left guard John Wa‘a, linebackers Benetton Fonua and Jeremy Castro, and nickelback Gaetano DeMattei. Running back Paul Harris, nose tackle Kory Rasmussen and free safety Kory Rasmussen also exited with injuries. There were 34 players on the injury report on Monday.” While Hawaii is primed for a bad game, this is clearly a ‘step-up’ spot for the home favorite, following a dismal showing on the road in Laramie last Saturday. Head coach Brian Polian was not amused, laying into his team following the game: “There was no leadership. They were not vocal enough. There were not enough people emotionally invested in the game player-wise. It’s the first time all year I felt that way. We had a couple of guys going up and down the sidelines as we mounted the comeback, but it was disappointing….. The seniors that we do have that are playing significantly, and there aren’t a ton of them, their challenge this week is to pick the team up right now and go. We need them right now.” In their last try as home chalk, the Wolfpack beat New Mexico by three scores while gaining a season high 517 yards of offense behind the strong legs of their 1-2 RB combo Don Jackson and James Butler. That duo is primed to carry the load again this week; bad news for this worn down Warriors defense. Nevada has dominated this series, winning 26-18, 31-9, 69-24 and 42-28 over the last four years. I don’t expect this year’s meeting to be a one score game either…. Take Nevada. |
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10-24-15 | SMU v. South Florida OVER 58.5 | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take USF – SMU OVER (#383-384) The full season numbers don’t tell the full story for either one of these teams, yet the betting markets seem to be fixating on those numbers by betting this total down from the opener of 65. USF’s offense has improved, week by week. QB Quinton Flowers is finally showing real signs of progress, throwing for 559 yards in a pair of Bulls victories over the past two weeks. This offense was anemic in September, but the Bulls ran all over Syracuse two weeks ago, and last week, they produced four TD’s and 461 yards against a strong UConn defense on the road, showing big play potential against a team that’s been exceptionally good at avoiding big plays against them all year. It’s surely worth noting that SMU’s 4-2-5 alignment on defense is very similar to what USF faces in practice every day; not a particularly complex or unfamiliar scheme for the home favorite. SMU’s offense is as explosive as anything that USF has seen all year. Bulls defensive coordinator Tom Allen: “It's the most talented group of skill guys, collectively, that we've seen. From receivers to running backs to quarterback, the whole combined group to me really has stood out…..They've really kind of changed the whole culture of that place offensively. I kind of thought (Morris) would, but he got some really good young freshmen that have had an immediate impact that I think has kind of sped up the process" Bulls senior defensive back Jamie Byrd: “They’ve scored on some great teams — some teams that run the same defensive style that we run. And they have great players and great receivers.” Head coach Willie Taggart knows that his team is going to have to put up points in bunches to win this week: “(SMU is a) Very talented football team that can score points on anyone. It's gonna be a challenge for our defense.” Mustangs head coach Chad Morris designed Clemson’s big play offense last year, and in his first year as a head coach, he’s been able to create big plays in bunches with an offense that has hung more than 30 points per game. QB Matt Davis was a Top 10 prospect coming out of high school, a dual threat Texas A&M transfer. He’s averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season, while throwing only two INT’s all year, despite facing the likes of TCU, Baylor and Houston already. 6-4 receiver Courtand Sutton is a threat to take any catch to the house, and Morris isn’t shy about dialing up deep shots for quick strike scores. With an extra week to devise a gameplan coming off their bye, I’m expecting the Mustangs to approach or exceed that 30 points per game average. SMU’s defense, however, is truly a bottom of the barrel unit. They rank 125th in total defense, and #117 against the pass. USF may not have star RB Marlon Mack, who is banged up again this week (hence the big move downwards on this total). That being said, backup RB’s D’Ernest Johnson and Darius Tice combined for 5.6 yard per carry against UConn last week, more than capable of putting up big numbers against an SMU stop unit that doesn’t get stops; a unit that has given up 48+ five times in six games on the heels of their 41 ppg allowed last year. With no rain expected in Tampa, look for this game to produce big plays in bunches, flying Over the total with relative ease. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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10-22-15 | California +3.5 v. UCLA | Top | 24-40 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
Take California (#309) Whatever UCLA was two months ago, they are not any more. The Bruins season started with tremendous promise, with blowout wins over the likes of Virginia, UNLV and Arizona over the first four weeks of the season. Frosh QB Josh Rosen exceeded all expectations and the Bruins loaded defense did more than enough to cashing winning bets for UCLA backers. That was then; this is now. UCLA’s defense has been decimated with key injuries, losing their single best upperclassman player from the defensive line (Eddie Vanderdoes), their linebacking corps (Myles Jack) and their secondary (Fabian Moreau) to season ending injuries. The results have not been pretty. In their last three games, the Bruins have allowed 124 points and 1374 yards -- they’re not stopping any good offense right now. And that points this bettor clearly towards the Cal side of this equation. The Bears unquestionably have the better quarterback, with Jared Goff likely to be the first QB selected in next year’s NFL draft. Goff is coming off his single worst game of the season, throwing five interceptions in a loss at Utah, and he’s had the bye week to clear his head and get ready for the Bruins. I have no hesitation taking Goff plus points, especially off a bye week. And, despite their respective preseason rankings, you can make a legitimate case that the Bears have the better defense as well. Last year, Cal allowed 90 points and 1194 yards to Washington and Washington St. This year, the Bears held those two teams to 52 points and 662 total yards. Despite all of those turnovers at Utah, the Bears held the Utes to a pair of second half field goals, staying competitive in defeat despite being put in tough situations repeatedly. Cal is the better of these two teams right now. I expect them to show it on Thursday Night. Take Cal. |
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10-17-15 | Arizona State +6.5 v. Utah | 18-34 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#193) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ Big Ticket winner supporting Arizona State at home against Colorado last week, an easy, ‘no sweat’ result. While the pointspread value isn’t there to make the Sun Devils worthy of Big Ticket status as they travel to Utah on Saturday Night, Todd Graham’s squad is still absolutely worthy of our support with a standard sized wager. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up: “The Sun Devils are an elite team that got off to a sluggish start to the season; exactly the type of squad that offers tremendous value here in October. This squad won ten games in the loaded PAC-12 South last year, and returned the vast majority of that talent on both sides of the football. Early season losses to quality foes -- Top 10 caliber squads in USC and Texas A&M – didn’t derail that season, as clearly evidenced by last week’s ‘circle the wagons’ upset win at UCLA. And ffter an 0-4 ATS start to the season, the Sun Devils offer legitimate value moving forward.” Arizona State matches up extremely well with Utah. The Utes are a fundamentally sound football team that lacks explosive offensive playmakers and elite level team speed. Arizona State is loaded with elite offensive playmakers, and their blitz-heavy, lightning quick defense has given Utah fits in every recent meeting. The Sun Devils held QB Travis Wilson and the Utes to 13 first downs and 241 yards of total offense in an OT loss in Tempe last year, Utah’s fourth straight loss in the series since joining the PAC-12. This is simply the wrong price range for Utah against this level of foe. The Utes have a value problem, with their early season win over Michigan looking even better now and their 62-20 blowout over a weak Oregon team forcing the markets to pay them some extra respect. The Utes forced six Cal turnovers last week and still couldn’t find a way to win by enough of a margin to cover the pointspread. I don’t think that changes this week, in a game that has all the makings of a ‘down-to-the-wire’ affair. Take Arizona State. |
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10-17-15 | Florida +7.5 v. LSU | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Florida (#161) Two key factors are in play here. First, I expect Florida to be just fine with Treon Harris behind center this week instead of Will Grier. Harris started the final six games for the Gators last year, and he was neck and neck with Grier for the starting job throughout camp over the summer. The 6-0 Gators have already won tough road games at Kentucky and Missouri. They went 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS away from home with Harris behind center last year, blowing out Georgia and Vanderbilt, covering wire-2-wire at Florida State and knocking off East Carolina in their bowl game. Harris’s presence on the field doesn’t change Florida’s elite defense; a stop unit that ranks among the best in the country both on paper and statistically. Senior defensive lineman Jon Bullard, talking about facing Heisman candidate Leonard Fournette: “That’s a good matchup. It gives something to go out and fight for. We don’t want him to run through us and then everybody question if we’re the best. I believe that we are the best and I think a lot of people do, too.” Nor does the presence of Harris change Gators head coach Jim McElwain’s track record; now 26-10 ATS in his last 36 lined games dating back to his tenure at Colorado State including a 5-1 mark this year. Florida won their only previous game as an underdog this year by four TD’s routing Ole Miss. They’re in revenge for a three point home loss to the Tigers last year; ensuring full focus in a very hostile environment. Taking a full TD with the Gators in this matchup is something of a no-brainer. The second key factor in play is that LSU simply isn’t that good. The Tigers haven’t seen an explosive, dynamic offense yet this year. Even more importantly, they haven’t seen a defense as good as Florida’s; very bad news considering that Les Miles’ squad is a one trick pony on offense – if Fournette can’t run wild, they’ll struggle to win, let alone to cover the spread. LSU quarterback Brandon Harris has thrown for a grand total of 610 yards in five games, unable to find open receivers downfield against the likes of Eastern Michigan and Syracuse(a combined 10-30 passing in those games). I’m not expecting Harris to suddenly break out here…… Take Florida. |
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10-17-15 | Oklahoma -3.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 55-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma (#167) Make no mistake about it – there’s an significant talent differential between these two teams. The Sooners remain a legitimate contender to win the Big 12 and move into the national championship picture. The Wildcats are likely to struggle to finish .500 in the Big 12 and they’re a long, long way from reaching a college football Playoff game. That differential is most assuredly not reflected in this pointspread. What this pointspread is reflecting is Oklahoma’s embarrassing loss to Texas last week coupled with back-2-back covers by Kansas State in this underdog role. But those two factors that have deflated this pointspread both work STRONGLY in Oklahoma’s favor here. Let me start with some Sooner quotes following last week’s loss, to show how they are approaching this week’s game. Sooner QB Baker Mayfield, coming off arguably his worst game as the starter: “"If you look at it, not many teams at all go undefeated. Last year, Ohio State won the national championship and they lost to a Virginia Tech team at home. They got it going, and they fought back. You can't harp on the losses. It can either make you better or make you worse." Head coach Bob Stoops: "It's simple. Like I said a year ago, we won this game (against Texas) and didn't end up having a great year. Two years ago, we lost this game and ended up going on and winning the Sugar Bowl…..All you can do is get ready to play this week and be the best we can and make improvement and take it game by game." Starting center Ty Darlington talking about the line’s woeful performance against Texas, when Mayfield was sacked six times and the Sooners rushed for just 67 yards on 37 carries: “I think a lot of it is the tone we set as leaders and what you accept every day in practice and the level of intensity and the level of competitiveness that you approach every day with…. What it's going to take from here on out is an incredible level of character. Our character gets revealed in times of adversity. This is definitely an adverse situation, but at the same time, all is not lost. We have a lot of our goals still out in front of us, and we're going to have a lot of opportunities to prove who we are." It’s surely worth noting how well Oklahoma has performed off a loss in the Stoops era. They haven’t lost back-2-back regular season games since 1999, winning SU each of their last 34 times following a defeat; a track record worth noting in this pointspread range! Meanwhile, Kansas State lacks quality depth and their quarterback play from third stringer Joe Hubener has left much to be desired. The Wildcats have a great long term track record in this role, but this spot is a nightmare for K-State. They’ve blown halftime leads in each of their last two games, unable to step up during crunch time. Both games were exhausting, down-to-the-wire affairs, bad news for a team with depth concerns. And if Kansas State falls behind, they lack the requisite level of QB play AND enough playmakers surrounding their quarterback to rally back. Oklahoma is primed for a major revenge beatdown after suffering a bitter one point loss to the Wildcats at home last year; a loss that came via a missed extra point AND a missed chip shot field goal late in the fourth quarter. The Sooners won by double digits on their last visit to Manhattan and I expect a similar margin on Saturday afternoon. Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma. |
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10-17-15 | Ole Miss v. Memphis OVER 68 | 24-37 | Loss | -112 | 69 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Ole Miss – Memphis OVER (#205-206) 1) The pace here is going to be frenetic, with both Ole Miss and Memphis looking to push the pace. The Rebels have already played slow paced Alabama – a game that produced 165 snaps – and 169 snaps versus Vanderbilt. Memphis (and their opponents) have been aboe 160 combined snaps three times in their last four. 2) Ole Miss is a threat to score 50+ here, just like they did last week, facing a Memphis defense that is short on talent, size and speed. The only two good offenses the Tigers have faced – Bowling Green and Cinci – both hung 40+ against them. 3) Memphis has enough playmakers to put points on the board themselves. In two previous road games, the Ole Miss defense has given up 37 & 38 points. After managing only a field goal against the Rebels in Oxford last year, off their bye week, I’m expecting a much improved showing from the Tigers offense this time around. |
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10-17-15 | West Virginia v. Baylor -21 | 38-62 | Win | 100 | 69 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Baylor (#176) 1) The mainstream media, once again, is ignoring the Bears this year, despite a power ranking here in Vegas that ranks above every other team in the country. Yes, Baylor is that good. 2) The Bears homefield is as strong as any in college football. Despite pointspreads routinely in this three TD’s or higher range, the Bears are riding a ridiculous (and completely under-the-radar) 19-2 ATS mark at home dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign. 3) West Virginia can’t protect their quarterback and they aren’t protecting the football, committing nine turnovers over the past two weeks. They’re coming off a deflating overtime loss, and Baylor will certainly remember their loss to the Mountaineers last year – the loss that kept them out of the Final Four. |
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10-16-15 | Cincinnati +6.5 v. BYU | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
Take Cincinnati (#111) 1) BYU is not a ‘blowout’ team – every game they’ve played all year – with the exception of the loss at Michigan – has been a tightly contested affair into the fourth quarter. 2) The short week (Friday Night game) won’t help Cougars QB Tanner Mangum get his hamstring injury fully healed; bad news for a team down to their fourth string running back. 3) Cinci should have Gunner Kiel back behind center; rested and ready off their bye week; good news for an explosive offense that has produced more than 34 points and more than 545 yards four times in five games. |
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10-11-15 | San Diego State +2 v. Hawaii | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 37 h 30 m | Show | |
Take San Diego State (#411) The betting markets have given us a surprising pointspread here, showing enormous respect for Hawaii and enormous disrespect for San Diego State by installing the Warriors as short home favorites. I don’t agree with either assessment, leaving me with the firm opinion that we’ve got the wrong team favored in this matchup. San Diego State came into the season as the clear favorite in the ‘West’ Division of the Mountain West Conference. But the markets soured on the Aztecs very quickly. $$ poured in against San Diego State in a 35-7 loss at Cal, and all the anti-Aztec money got paid off. Then the following week, the Aztecs were flat as a pancake, losing outright at home as 17 point favorites to South Alabama. They lost and failed to cover at Penn State the following week, off to an 0-4 ATS start. And by the time most bettors fell asleep last Saturday, San Diego State was tied with struggling Fresno 7-7 at halftime, again unable to move the football consistently. But the second half of the San Diego State – Fresno State game last Saturday really matters for the purpose of this handicap. The Aztecs figured it out, moving the ball on every possession, without a single ‘three and out’ that had plagued them all year. Much maligned QB Maxwell Smith only completed five passes, but they were extremely effective passes—every one of them –including a pair of TD strikes. With a run first offense and a QB who has finally shown the ability to make downfield throws, the Aztecs attack is going to be tough for a banged up team like Hawaii to stop. It’s worth noting that Aztecs big play back Donnel Pumphrey will make the trip with the team, now listed as questionable after a doubtful listing earlier in the week. Even if Pumphrey doesn’t play, senior backup Chase Price is just fine, coming off a 151 yard effort after replacing Pumphrey last week. Hawaii is banged up, as they should be, having faced Boise, Ohio State and Wisconsin on the road in the last month. They were shut out in all three of those games, and currently rank dead last in the Mountain West Conference in all seven major offensive statistical categories. Head coach Norm Chow: “It’s not about them, it’s about us and our willingness to regroup. Our willingness to play through hurts and injuries and try to make this thing happen.” Offensive coordinator Don Bailey lamenting the fact that he hasn’t had the same starting skill position players in any game this season due to injuries: “San Diego State doesn’t care who is playing and who is not. Whoever is playing has to play at a consistent, high level, and that is what is expected every week.” Hawaii has lost their homecoming game in each of the last three seasons. They’ve lost to San Diego State by a TD or more in each of the three meetings since the Warriors joined the conference back in 2012, outgained by nearly 200 yards while being held to 10 points against the Aztecs last year. I’m not expecting this year’s matchup to be significantly different than those recent meetings. Wrong team favored here! Take San Diego State. |
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