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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-14-19 | Indiana -2 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on INDIANA The Hoosiers were an excellent team to bet down the stretch as they've covered six straight games. They've won the last four straight up as well, including upsets of both Wisconsin and Michigan State. It was a much different finish to the regular season for Ohio State. The Byckeyes are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread in March. Now a large part of that had to do with the fact they were without leading scorer (and rebounder) Kaleb Wesson, who was suspended. Wesson will return for the Big 10 Tourney, but it may be a case of "too little, too late" for the Buckeyes. Indiana has legit revenge here for a three-point loss in the regular season. They shot very poorly in that game and we don't think that'll be the case this afternoon. Both of these teams finished with 8-12 SU records in Big 10 play, so they're lucky to even be in the NCAA Tournament discussion. The loser here is done. The difference between Indiana and Ohio State is that the former was able to beat good teams, including Michigan State twice. IU gets it done here. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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03-13-19 | North Texas v. Florida International +3 | Top | 71-57 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on FIU This is a first round matchup in Conference USA's Tournament. The way I see it, the only reason North Texas is still favored has to do with the way they started the season (16-2 through 18 games). Because the Mean Green definitely didn't end the season well. They've lost seven straight games and didn't cover the spread in any of them either. Their most recent loss was to a team they'll play again today, that being FIU, who just won 73-58 over UNT on Saturday. That was the second time the Panthers beat the Mean Green in the last month as they also prevailed by a score of 69-59 back on Feb 16th. Both games were in Miami due to the weird way C-USA did its schedule this year. But the Panthers finished the year at 19-12, winning and covering five of the last six games. North Texas is just 1-10 ATS vs. teams with winning records. Their poor form can't be overlooked here. Play on FIU AAA |
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03-13-19 | Massachusetts v. George Washington +4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GEORGE WASHINGTON The Atlantic 10 Tournament is heavily slanted to the top four teams (double byes) so GW and UMass both have uphill climbs. The lower seed is actually favored in this one, which is interesting because GW won the only regular season meeting. They did so 79-67 as 2.5 point home underdogs. That represents the Colonials only win in the last 10 games. Can they beat UMass again? Sure, why not. At the very worst they should still cover. UMass has been terrible as a favorite, going 3-12 ATS this year. They've lost nine of the games straight up. Even more damning is that the Minutemen are not just 1-7 ATS as a favorite in conference play, but also 1-7 straight up. You just don't want to be caught laying points with this group. We'll be honest in that GW isn't much better. But they are not this many points worse. Play on GEORGE WASHINGTON AAA |
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03-12-19 | Pittsburgh -1 v. Boston College | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITT Pitt had a lousy year in the ACC, but at least the regular season ended on a high note as they beat Notre Dame 56-53 Saturday. The Panthers still enter the ACC Tournament as the lowest possible seed (14th), but they are favored to win their first game. Having taken this team Saturday, I'll back them again here as I don't think they're nearly as bad as their record. B.C. comes into the ACC Tourney having lost three in a row and they were terrible in a 73-47 home loss to N.C. State on Saturday. The Eagles did win a pair of games in last year's ACC Tourney, but we don't see that happening again. They did beat Pitt in the only regular season meeting, 66-57, but that was in Chesnut Hill. The Panthers are the better three-point shooting team here. Look for that to be the difference tonight. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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03-11-19 | Ohio +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 61-80 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OHIO Ohio did not have a particularly good regular season, but it ended on a high note with the Bobcats covering the spread in the last five games. They won three of them straight up and the two losses were by a combined eight points. So, for us, they're an attractive bet tonight getting points against Northern Illinois. This is a home game for NIU but they've lost 7 of 10 and none of the three wins were by more than seven points. The last two were both on the road and were upsets. The last three times the Huskies have been favored, they lost outright all three times. Now the last instance of them covering as chalk was here at home against Ohio. But the Bobcats actually led that game with seven minutes to go. They also lost to NIU in Athens, so it's a big-time revenge factor here. With both teams having been involved in so many close games this season, it seems only logical to side with the team getting points. There's just not much difference between the two sides and Ohio has played better of late. Northern Illinois is 0-5 ATS its last five home games. Play on OHIO AAA |
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03-10-19 | Delaware v. William & Mary -4.5 | Top | 85-79 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WILLIAM & MARY This is one of four quarterfinal matchups today in the Colonial Athletic Association. William & Mary is the 4-seed while Delaware is the 5, but the teams really aren't as close as those seedings suggest, nor are they as close as the oddsmakers seem to think they are. William & Mary finished two games up in the standings. They did lose to Delaware early in the year, by just two points on the road. But they crushed them in the rematch, at home, winning by 21 points. William & Mary ended the regular season on a five-game SU win streak, covering the spread in four of those games. Delaware ended with four straight losses - both SU and ATS - and is 1-9-1 ATS its last 11 games overall (3-8 SU). Pay little mind to the fact they beat W&M early in the season as the Tribe actually went off as the slight favorite in that game and it was decided by two points. W&M holds a 7-1 record the last eight meetings and led by seven at halftime in that loss. Delaware just got beat by double digits in back to back home games to end the regular season, by the top two teams in the Colonial. Even their modest 16-15 record is a bit misleading when you consider the won FOUR overtime games this year (didn't lose any), three of them double OT games! Play on WILLIAM & MARY AAA |
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03-09-19 | Duke v. North Carolina -3.5 | Top | 70-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNC The first time these teams played UNC caught an all-time lucky break as Zion Williamson got injured in the first minute of the game. The Tar Heels took advantage of a shell-shocked Duke team, beating them 88-72 in Cameron. Though the game was on the road, it's almost unfathomable that UNC was a 10-point underdog for that contest. Now they are the higher ranked team and favorite, poised to sweep the season series from their hated rival. Though there's been some talk of Williamson returning here, it sounds as if that's highly unlikely and even if he did, who knows how he could perform in such a hostile situation. UNC has won six straight and 13 of its last 14 and I don't see them dropping their Chapel Hill finale. Since the Williamson injury, Duke lost at Virginia Tech and then was very fortunate to escape with a one-point victory earlier this week against Wake Forest, a game they were expected to win by 24. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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03-09-19 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State -6.5 | Top | 53-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS STATE For the 1st time in 15 years, Kansas will not win the Big 12 regular season title. That much we know. But who will supplant the Jayhawks is still up for grabs. It will either be Texas Tech or Kansas State. The two come into Saturday tied with matching 13-4 conference records. Unlike Texas Tech, Kansas State gets to play at home. They host Oklahoma, whom the 18th ranked Wildcats easily downed earlier this year in Norman, 74-61 as five-point underdogs. Ironically, it was OU that came into that first meeting ranked in the top 20 (Wildcats were unranked). Something Kansas State has in common with Texas Tech is they are one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Wildcats allow 59.3 PPG, 4th fewest in the entire nation (1 PPG more than TT). Oklahoma has faded badly since losing that first matchup with Kansas State. The Sooners are 6-8 SU the last 14 games and that's even with back to back wins to open March. After upsetting Kansas earlier in the week, it would only be natural for the Sooners to have a letdown Saturday in Manhattan. Kansas State is 13-2 in the Octagon of Doom this year. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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03-09-19 | Texas Tech -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS TECH For the 1st time in 15 years, Kansas will not win the Big 12 regular season title. That much we know. But who will supplant the Jayhawks is still up for grabs. It will either be Texas Tech or Kansas State. The two come into Saturday tied with matching 13-4 conference records. For Texas Tech to win at least a share of the title, they'll need to win in Ames against Iowa State. We like their chances. The Red Raiders are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, making them a dangerous opponent come NCAA Tournament time. They just ripped Texas 70-51, holding the Longhorns under 30% shooting for the game, for their eighth straight win. Meanwhile, Iowa State is limping towards the finish. The Cyclones have lost four of their last five games. While just one of those four losses transpired here at home, their last two defensive efforts leave a lot to be desired. They gave up 86 points to Texas and 90 to last place West Virginia. Defense travels, thus Texas Tech can be counted on today. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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03-09-19 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh -2 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITTSBURGH Something will have to give here when Pittsburgh hosts Notre Dame in the final regular season game for both ACC teams. Pitt is 2-15 in conference play and has lost 13 in a row. They are in last place. Just one game ahead is Notre Dame, who has lost six straight. Can you believe Pitt actually holds early season wins over Louisville and NC State? There are many reasons why the Panthers have hit the skids, but the bottom line is they've lost a lot of close games as well. Believe it or not, this is actually an improvement from last year when they didn't win a single ACC game. As the home team Saturday, we expected them to have more motivation. Ending this losing streak in the final home game is a big deal. As poorly as Pitt has shot the basketball, Notre Dame has shockingly been worse at only 37.4% in ACC play. The Fighting Irish have just two wins outside of South Bend all season. A two-point loss to Clemson in their own home finale (Wednesday) could have a demoralizing effect. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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03-08-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -9 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOLEDO We used Toledo earlier in the week and it was a success with them beating Western Michigan 76-57. That was the fourth win in a row for the Rockets, who have already clinched the MAC West and thus will be the #2 seed (behind Buffalo) in their conference tournament. But before they get to Cleveland, it's time to take care of a little business with Eastern Michigan in the final regular season game of the year. The Rockets are playing with legit revenge here as they lost up in Ypsilanti last month 76-69 as four-point favorites. They haven't lost since. We're getting a good price on them for the rematch. Toledo is a very good home team as is evident by their 13-2 SU record and they average 78.1 points per game while only giving up 62.1. For all the reasons we took them against Western Michigan, we like them here as well. Then there is the revenge angle coupled with it being Senior Night, which only sweetens the deal. Play on TOLEDOÂ AAA |
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03-07-19 | Pacific +1.5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 53-61 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PACIFIC In what is quite the interesting scenario, Pacific will play Pepperdine for a second time in less than a week. These WCC rivals ended the regular season against one another with Pacific winning 73-72 on a late three-pointer. The win, which came on the road, snapped a six-game losing streak for Pacific. Now the Tigers get to face the Waves at a neutral setting (Las Vegas), looking to sweep the season series. Pacific also beat Pepperdine earlier in the year, at home, 66-59. Pepperdine has won just one of its last five games and two out of its last eight. Their last win came against last place Portland (who is HORRIBLE) and the other win was by just three points over San Diego. The third time will NOT be the charm tonight for Pepperdine, who simply does not win away from home very often. Pacific hasn't just had Pepperdine's number this year, they've won and covered five straight times at the Waves' expense. Play on PACIFIC AAA |
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03-07-19 | UL - Lafayette v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UL LAFAYETTE This is another Sun Belt game, one involving the team that was just upset by Appalachian State. That result should leave Louisiana plenty motivated going into this final week of the regular season. Losing at home is never any fun, but especially on Senior Day, which is what happened to the Ragin Cajuns over the weekend due to a very poor defensive effort (gave up 90 points). We can't see them losing for a second straight time to an inferior opponent. They beat Little Rock by 14 on the road back in January. At the time, Louisiana's SU record was 10-5. They've been a .500 team since, but that's still better than Little Rock, who has dropped four straight coming into tonight. The Trojans had to play their last three games all on the road. Maybe they've been more competitive than the 5-11 conference record shows, but I don't think they can be trusted to win a game straight up. Not when they lost by double digits to the same team the first time around. Play on UL LAFAYETTE AAA |
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03-07-19 | Troy State +8 v. Appalachian State | Top | 64-72 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TROY Last place Troy has had little to celebrate in the Sun Belt as their record is 4-12 and they come into the final week having lost five in a row and 9 of the last 10 games. But tonight the Trojans face one of the teams they have beaten already and they'll do so while getting a pretty generous number. Appalachian State is only a game ahead of Troy in the standings, so the latter has a chance to get out of the basement with a win tonight. With App State both off a rare win and laying points, I see them as being particularly vulnerable tonight. The Mountaineers just beat Louisiana 90-80 over the weekend, thus sweeping the season series from the Ragin Cajuns. But here we find them as a favorite, a role they have only been in six times all season and gone 2-4 ATS. This will be the most points ASU has had to lay in any Sun Belt game. Go with the underdog in a clear letdown spot for the favorite. App State is just 7-27 ATS following a game where they covered the spread. Play on TROY AAA |
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03-06-19 | Oregon -7 v. Washington State | Top | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OREGON Oregon has simply rolled to victory in each of its last two games, winning by 28 and 26 points. They beat the two Arizona schools, both at home, and a 73-47 dismantling of Arizona over the weekend was most impressive. They do have to travel twice in the final week of the regular season, up to Washington, but winning in Pullman should not be much of a problem (the finale @ Washington will be much tougher). Waiting here for the Ducks is a dreadful Washington State squad that has won just 4 of its 16 Pac 12 games. Three straight losses probably haven't done wonders for the Cougars' confidence coming into the final week and they already lost to Oregon by 20 earlier in the year. Wazzu may not be as bad at home as they are on the road, but they are bad regardless and we don't see this being a very competitive game. Play on OREGONÂ AAA |
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03-06-19 | Youngstown State v. Oakland -8 | Top | 84-88 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND Quarterfinal action in the Horizon League continues tonight with the 3 seed (Oakland) hosting the 6 seed (Youngstown State). The winner here moves on to play the winner of Northern Kentucky vs. Detroit next Monday. While it might seem like a bad idea to lay points in a matchup of teams whose two regular season meetings were decided by a total of three points, that's precisely what we'll do here. Oakland ended the regular season quite well, winning its last four games - all by double digit margins (4-0 ATS). YSU has lost three in a row, including one at home to Cleveland State, who didn't even qualify for the conference tournament. Oakland scores a lot when it plays at home (81.5 PPG) and Youngstown State doesn't score much when it travels (69.9 PPG). Look for the favorite to easily cover the spread in this one. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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03-05-19 | East Carolina v. Wichita State -14.5 | Top | 55-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WICHITA STATE Wichita State might only be middle of the pack in the American, but they've been a lot better down the home stretch, going 7-2 straight up and against the spread their last nine games. They just won by 12 at SMU on Sunday, as a 3.5-point underdog, and now get one of the conference's worst teams for the final home game of the year. In most leagues, East Carolina would be the worst team, but the American happens to have Tulane, whose ineptitude defies description. Wichita State already beat ECU by 16 on the road, a game which came during this 7-2 run. East Carolina has just one road win all year and it came against ... you guessed it, Tulane. They give almost 80 PPG in road games, which is a problem facing a Wichita State team that's been tightening the screws defensively recently. The Shockers have held five of the last seven opponents below 37% shooting. ECU has allowed 190 points the last two games on almost 60% shooting. Play WICHITA STATE AAA |
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03-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -15.5 | Top | 57-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TOLEDO Toledo is already assured of winning the MAC West as they swept the season series from Central Michigan, whom they just beat Saturday. But the Rockets have a real chance to enter the conference tourney with some serious momentum as they have what appear to be - on paper - two very winnable home games in the final week of the regular season. Up first is a Western Michigan team they already beat on the road back in January. That was an eight-point win as six-point favorites, but they'll need a far greater margin of victory to cover the spread tonight. Western Michigan has covered four in a row, including three straight losses by five points or less. Our guess is they won't have much left in the tank after a two-point loss to Ball State over the weekend. Friday's home finale vs. Central Michigan and obviously the MAC Tournament are greater priorities for the Broncos at this point. They are only 3-13 SU on the road and 2-14 in conference play. They're no match for the Rockets tonight. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-04-19 | Kansas State -1.5 v. TCU | Top | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS STATE Kansas State is seeking its first share of a Big 12 title since 2013 and first outright regular season championship since 1977 when the conference was still known as the Big 8. To at least accomplish the former, they'll need to win the final two regular season games. The latter would require winning both times and Texas Tech also losing once. Motivation won't be lacking for TCU tonight either in their final home game. But the Horned Frogs have dropped five of six and already lost to the Wildcats by 10 earlier in the year. I can't see them winning this time either, even at home. Kansas State is one of the very best defensive teams in the country and is on a 12-2 run vs. Big 12 opponents. Last week did feature a pair of subpar performances against Kansas and Baylor. But laying the shortest of numbers against TCU shouldn't be that much of a problem here. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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03-03-19 | Manhattan v. Quinnipiac -8.5 | Top | 62-58 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Quinnipiac Quinnipiac has a shot at at earning itself a share of the MAAC regular season title. All they need to do today is beat a Manhattan team that already beat on the road earlier this year. That will give them a 12-6 SU league mark, same as Iona, whose regular season is now complete. A loss today though would be deadly for the Bobcats. As many as three other teams could finish w/ an 11-7 SU league mark and that scenario unfolds, Quinnipiac could go into the MAAC Tournament as low as the #5 seed. Fortunately, it would appear Manhattan is going to offer little resistance today. The Jaspers have lost three in a row, scoring just 52, 59 and 54 points. That's actually pretty par for the course as they come in averaging only 56.9 PPG, which ranks second to last in the entire country! They had no answer for a 12 of 28 Quinnipiac three-point barrage in the first meeting and it should be more of the same in today's regular season finale. Look for the home team to honor its seniors with a big win. PLAY ON QUINNIPIAC AAA |
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03-03-19 | South Florida v. Connecticut -4 | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UConn Something will have to give here as USF has lost four in a row while UConn has dropped six straight. Certainly, the current state of Huskies hoops still takes some getting used to. However, they've at least been covering with regularity, going 8-2 ATS their last 10 games with both non-covers coming on the road. They actually haven't won a single game away from home all season, but are 12-4 SU in Storrs and that's where they are getting USF today. It just so happens that home favorite is the role that has treated UConn the best as they are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS. Laying just a short number here, against a subpar foe, thus seems advantageous. The Huskies have a scoring differential of +13.8 PPG at home. Yes, there was a time USF had a 17-6 record. But they've lost four straight, the last two coming by double digits, getting somewhat exposed in the process. Three days ago, UConn blew a 10-point lead against Wichita State and lost at the buzzer. They'll bounce back Sunday afternoon. Play on UCONN AAA |
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03-02-19 | Colorado State v. New Mexico -2.5 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW MEXICO New Mexico suffered quite the embarrassing loss on Wednesday as they fell to San Jose State, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country, 89-82 as 10.5 point favorites. That's something that just "can't happen," but lucky for the Lobos they are back in Albuquerque for this Saturday night tilt with Colorado State. The Rams won at Boise State on Wednesday as 6.5-point underdogs. It was their third straight victory, but the other two were over San Jose State and Wyoming, the two worst teams in the Mountain West. New Mexico has lost three in a row. I'll call for both streaks to end tonight as the Lobos are playing with revenge for a loss in Ft. Collins where they were actually two-point favorites. Despite what we've seen recently, New Mexico is the better of the two teams and CSU's recent efforts simply are not sustainable. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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03-02-19 | Toledo -1 v. Central Michigan | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Toledo This is a big game in the MAC's Western Division where Toledo holds a one-game lead over Central Michigan. A win today by the road team would give them a two-game edge (duh!) as well as a season sweep of the Chippewas. CMU has been "money" against the spread lately, going 9-0-1 ATS its last 10 games, which includes covering that first meeting vs. Toledo where they were a nine-point underdog. Both teams were successful on the road earlier in the week with Toledo winning at Ball State and CMU winning at Eastern Michigan. Toledo's win, which came despite allowing their opponent to shoot 52.1%, seemed more impressive to me and I have them rated as the better team. CMU may average more than 90 PPG at home, but they won't get to that number here against a Rockets team allowing only 68.4 PPG. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-02-19 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -5 | Top | 75-80 | Push | 0 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on AUBURN The last time Auburn played at home, I took them and was richly rewarded with an easy win and cover. Facing Arkansas, they were laying a pretty big number, but nothing could stop the Tigers that night as they raced out to a 25-point halftime lead and never looked back. That game saw them shoot 17 of 33 from three-point range and it would be nice to get something similar today as they host Miss State in a revenge game. Auburn lost in Starkville last month by a score of 92-84. It was their most points allowed in a game this season and a really disappointing result given the Tigers shot 53.2% from the floor themselves. After getting blown out at Kentucky last Saturday, then barely escaping Georgia, this should be a welcome return home for the Tigers. Miss State has won five in a row, but that's come against the lower-half of the SEC. At home, Auburn is 13-2 with a scoring differential of +23.5 per game. They haven't shot well recently, but I'm banking on them shooting well here. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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03-01-19 | Columbia v. Brown -5 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Brown Not sure what the reason is for this line being bet down so much, but Brown is now a really great value play. The Bears are at home, facing a Columbia team that they already defeated on the road. They come in on a three-game win streak, having just beaten both Harvard and Dartmouth here at home. Columbia has just one win in its last eight games and it was by two points. So the Lions aren't likely to be roaring on the road. They are 3-11 SU in road/neutral site games and giving up an average of 78.5 points in those contests. Brown is 11-2 SU at home where it averages 81.5 PPG. All signs point to laying the relatively short number with the home team in this one. The Bears were able to win at Columbia despite making only three three-pointers in the game. Brown has yet to lose as a favorite this year as they are 8-0 in the role. Play on BROWN AAA |
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02-28-19 | Cal Poly +12.5 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CAL POLY Cal State Fullerton is only 13-14 overall this season, but they're 9-4 in the Big West and that's the second best record in the conference. But they were losers last Saturday to UCSB, falling by 15 as a four-point dog. It was just the second loss in the last 11 games. The team the Titans host Thursday has become somewhat familiar with losing as Cal Poly has dropped 10 of its last 12 games. They are in last place in the Big West, but did win their last game, which was at home against Hawaii. The Mustangs were eight point underdogs and won the game by eight. CS Fullerton is only 9-16 ATS overall and 2-6 ATS at home. Six of their last nine wins have come by seven points or fewer. Play on CAL POLY AAA |
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02-28-19 | Arkansas State +11.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Arkansas State Georgia State is tied with Georgia Southern for second place in the Sun Belt, one game behind first place Texas State. Arkansas State is much further down the standings, several games off the pace. But this only meeting of the season should be closer than anticipated. The visiting Red Wolves come in one a two-game win streak. Both wins were at home, but they are 6-1 ATS their last seven road games with a total of 150 to 154.5. Georgia State is off a bad loss at Coastal Carolina where they gave up 95 points. They trailed by 25 at halftime. Too many points to lay here as it's a team unaccustomed to laying so many against a team that typically doesn't get as many. Play on ARKANSAS STATE AAA |
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02-27-19 | Texas v. Baylor -4.5 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAYLOR Baylor and Texas have a huge game tonight in Waco as both are looking to establish themselves as NCAA Tournament worthy teams. The latest "Bracketology" projections have both teams in, but Texas would seem to be in a pretty precarious state, given their 15-12 SU record. Unfortunately for tonight, the Longhorns will have to go in short-handed as their leading scorer Kerwin Roach II has been suspended for an off the court matter. They'll get no sympathy from a Baylor team, who has had to navigate the season without two of its top players, Tristan Clark and King McClure. Plus the Bears have revenge from a 12-point loss in Austin earlier this month. Baylor has performed surprisingly well without the two players, winning three of its last four games. I expect Texas to struggle without Roach. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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02-26-19 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -11.5 | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on North Carolina I said that there was no way Syracuse could reasonably be expected to compete Saturday night vs. Duke, even at home and with the Blue Devils playing without Zion Williamson. This is because of the situation with Jim Boeheim trumping everything. If you haven't been following the news, a car driven by Boeheim struck and killed a pedestrian late last week. The fact Boeheim is continuing to coach is somewhat mind-blowing, given that circumstance. The Orange actually played better than I though they would vs. Duke, but still lost by 10 at the Carrier Dome. Now they must turnaround and hit the road to face the team that just beat Duke, that being North Carolina. The Tar Heels are as hot as anyone in the country right now. Yes, they took full advantage of Williamson getting hurt when they beat Duke, but this is a team that has won its last two games - both against very good teams (Duke and Florida State) by a combined 34 points despite shooting just 9 of 40 from three-point land. They should destroy Syracuse tonight in Chapel Hill as the Orange lack the offensive punch to compete with a team that averages 88.4 PPG. Play on NORTH CAROLINAÂ AAA |
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02-24-19 | California v. Arizona State -17.5 | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARIZONA STATE California is very bad. That shouldn't be any kind of newsflash for a team that is now 5-22 overall. But every time you think things may have bottomed out in Berkeley, they find a way to get worse. The latest setback came to an Arizona team that had lost and failed to cover seven in a row. It was also Cal's 15th loss in a row. They are 0-14 vs. the rest of the Pac 12 and 0-12 away from home. Their last win was before Christmas and against a San Jose State team that is among the very worst in the country. So Arizona State should roll tonight as they have already beaten Cal by double digits on the road. Now they get the Bears at home. The Sun Devils have posted two straight double digit wins, including 80-62 over Stanford on Wednesday. Other than Washington, ASU is probably the best team in the Pac 12. Maybe that's not saying much, but they'll win big Sunday. Play on ARIZONA STATE AAA |
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02-24-19 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Finally, the two top teams in the Big 10 get a chance to play one another. There's probably an argument to be made that Michigan State would have liked to play this game a little sooner in the season considering some of the attrition suffered on the injury front. But the Spartans keep on winning in spite of those injuries and I think are a great value getting points Sunday in Ann Arbor. Tom Izzo's team certainly hasn't had much difficulty covering the spread this season as their ATS record is a sterling 19-8. They'd covered three straight before getting caught laying 15.5 to Rutgers earlier in the week and they only won by 11. This will be only the third time getting points. While their ATS record as an underdog so far is 0-2 and Michigan is 16-0 SU at home, I still rate the visitors as the better team here. I was quite surprised to see the Wolverines have won the last three games in this rivalry. Not this time. Take the points. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-23-19 | Duke -4.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DUKE
AAA |
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02-23-19 | St. Joe's +2.5 v. Massachusetts | Top | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on St. Joe's I'm not sure UMass should be favored against anyone in the A-10, even at home, given they're the last place team in the conference. The Minutemen are just 9-17 SU overall with a 2-11 A-10 record. But here's the real kicker. They are 0-12 ATS as a favorite this season, losing nine of those games straight up! Most of those games have taken place here in Amherst where they're just 2-10 ATS overall. UMass already lost to St. Joe's earlier in the year in what was a two-point game. St. Joe's won despite a 33.9 FG% and making only 4 of 23 three-point attempts. While the road has been far from kind to the Hawks, today's game would certainly qualify as the most "winnable" (away from home) on the Atlantic 10 slate. UMass just lost to a bad George Washington team by 12 on Wednesday, which was another time they were favored (-2.5 on the road). Given their ATS record as chalk, I don't see how one couldn't fade them Saturday. Play on ST. JOE'S AAA |
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02-21-19 | St. Mary's -7.5 v. Pacific | Top | 58-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on St. Mary's St. Mary's is a good team, but hasn't been covering spreads lately. They are 1-6 ATS last seven games. But tonight is a situation conducive for them to win big. They're playing a Pacific team they already beat, by 12, early in the month. That was one of the games they did not cover, but it was close as they were 14-point favorites. The key was Pacific shot 67 percent in the first half. That won't happen again in tonight's rematch. In the two games since playing SMU, the Tigers have scored 59 points twice. They have scored more than 66 just one time in the last 11 games. Because they are on the road this time, St. Mary's doesn't need to win by as much to cover the spread. It's not asking too much for the Gaels to win by double digits again vs. a team barely averaging 60 points per game in WCC action. Play on ST. MARY'S AAA |
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02-20-19 | Air Force v. Fresno State -12.5 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Fresno State There's been a highly unusual pattern to emerge from past meetings between Air Force and Fresno State. Fresno State almost always wins (11 of the last 13 meetings), but Air Force usually leaves with the cash (10-2-1 ATS in those same 13 games). This pattern has really held true here in Fresno where the home team has won seven straight times, but the Flyboys have covered six of those times. With a double digit spread tonight, I can see how some might think this pattern will continue. However, I see something different unfolding, that being a lopsided win for FSU. This particular Air Force team is really bad on the road. They are 1-8 SU and averaging just 61.1 PPG. They've also only covered one of their last six games overall. Fresno State has won five of six, the lone exception being a one-point loss to Utah State. The Bulldogs average 78.2 points per game at home. Play on FRESNO STATE AAA |
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02-20-19 | Rutgers v. Michigan State -16 | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Michigan State comes into tonight a little shorthanded, but not shorthanded enough to the point where they can't blow out Rutgers. Already without Joshua Langford (done for year), the Spartans are now without Nick Ward for an indefinite period of time due to a hairline fracture in his shooting (left) hand. But like I said, Sparty should still roll tonight. All the way back on November 30th, they opened up Big 10 play with an easy 11-point victory over the Scarlet Knights, in New Jersey. While MSU is dealing with some physical injuries, Rutgers must somehow overcome the emotional toll of losing on a buzzer beater to Iowa on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in five games and they seem to be heading down the tubes. Michigan State is one of the few teams in the country talented enough to overcome injuries. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-19-19 | Bradley v. Drake -4 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DRAKE Give credit to Drake as the season-ending injury to leading scorer Nick Norton has not really derailed their season in any way. Sure, initially, it looked like it might. Norton tore his ACL back in early January and the Bulldogs lost the next two games. But they've since won 9 of 12 and are still tied for 1st in the Missouri Valley at 9-5 SU. The team they are tied with is Loyola Chicago, who should be a familiar name based on last season's run to the Final Four. Drake has lost twice already to the Ramblers, so that puts them at a disadvantage for that top seed in next month's conference tournament. But a strong finish to the regular season could certainly go a long way and I don't see the Bulldogs losing at home to a Bradley team that's due for a letdown after four straight wins, three of them upsets. The Braves got blown out by Drake (lost by 17) on their home floor last month, and I don't see them performing a whole lot better on the road. Drake basically averages 80 points per game at home. Play on DRAKE AAA |
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02-18-19 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -11 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Wisconsin Wisconsin certainly has some work to do. Because they've lost two straight, the Badgers almost certainly will fall out of the new top 25 when that poll is released later today. But don't make the mistake of thinking this isn't one of the 25 best teams in America. Before losing to Michigan and Michigan State, both top 10 teams mind you, the Badgers had won six in a row. They had covered the spread in all six games as well. Tonight, they are going to play one of the six teams they beat during that streak, Illinois. They beat the Illini 72-60 back on Jan 23rd and that was on the road as 4.5-point favorites. The Illini come into this rematch riding their own four-game win streak, which includes three upsets, the latest taking place at Ohio State Thursday. But they seem ill-suited to compete against the Badgers as they've dropped four in a row to them, failing to cover all four times as well. Also, before beating Ohio State, the Illini had just one road win all season. Wisconsin is a very good defensive team and after being held below 60 pts in its last three games, they should do some damage offensively here. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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02-17-19 | Arizona +4 v. Colorado | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARIZONA Arizona has lost six in a row, but don't give up on them just yet as I believe the Wildcats are due to have a breakout performance tonight in Boulder. Not only have the Wildcats lost six in a row, they've failed to cover the spread in all six games. Colorado is 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, so again, this looks like two teams heading in different directions. But sometimes that's exactly what you want as the underdog looks to be underappreciated in this one as Arizona beat Colorado earlier in the year, 64-56 as six-point favorites. It would seem as if the line has shifted too far for the rematch as Colorado has not been favored by this much against anybody since facing Cal back on January 24th. They were the underdog for three of the last four games and only -1.5 vs. Arizona State Wednesday, a game they won by only four points. This is the first time the Buffaloes have won four straight in conference play since the 2005-06 season. It's a most opportune time to fade them. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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02-16-19 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -5 | Top | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-16-19 | DePaul v. Butler -6.5 | Top | 78-91 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BUTLER Both DePaul and Butler are coming off losses. DePaul's was definitely worse, even though it came against a top 10 opponent. They were blown out by Marquette 92-73 at home. Butler lost by four at St. John's that same day (Tuesday). The Bulldogs are in much better position to rebound, even though they've lost four of six just like the Blue Demons. Butler won the first meeting, rather convincingly, exactly one month ago. It was an 87-69 game where they shot lights out. Interesting is that they won so handily on the road despite attempting just four free throws. DePaul remains pretty shaky on defense as they've only been favored twice in Big East play. Butler sees its scoring rise to 77.9 PPG at home and after watching them play three consecutive games decided by four points or less, this should be a far more comfortable result. They are simply the better team as they've already proven by winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Play on BUTLER AAA |
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02-16-19 | Washington -7.5 v. Washington State | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON Despite winning every conference game but one (their last one), Washington doesn't ever seem to get the respect that it deserves. That probably has to do with the fact the Pac 12 isn't very good this year. There's a good chance only one team from this league makes the NCAA Tournament. But presently, I don't think there's an argument that UW isn't the best team. They are head and shoulders above the rest defensively and tonight they'll face a rival that has been terrible most of this season. Washington State may have pulled off back to back upsets, winning at Arizona State (were +15.5) and Arizona (were +11.5), but before that the Cougs had lost every Pac 12 game but one. Washington is off their first conference loss here; 75-63 to Arizona State. But they've had a full week to recover. They'd gone 10-0 SU and ATS in conference play before that. That includes a 22-point win over Wazzu in Seattle. It shouldn't be much more difficult the second time around as I predict another double digit victory. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-16-19 | Iowa State +3 v. Kansas State | Top | 78-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on IOWA STATE Iowa State invades Manhattan (Kansas, that is) for a game pitting two teams seemingly going in different directions. Kansas State has risen to the top of the Big 12 on the back of its outstanding defense. The Wildcats have won 9 of 10. Iowa State suffered an outright loss in its last game, falling 92-83 at home to TCU. But that game was exactly one week ago. The Cyclones have had more than enough time to prepare for this showdown where I believe they are the better team. I think it's instructive to note Kansas State wasn't even in the top 25 until this week. They certainly can be offensively challenged, even at home where they only average 63.8 points per game. Iowa State is the top offensive team in the conference and this will be just the fourth time they are a dog this season. They've covered two of the previous three times. The 'Clones also have a bit of revenge to exact as they lost at home to KSU, 58-57 (were -8.5) back on January 12th. Kansas State's only loss in the L10 games came out of conference, so they've beaten every Big 12 team. They won't beat Iowa State twice. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |
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02-15-19 | Brown v. Cornell | Top | 66-70 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Brown Over its last four games, Cornell has pulled off three upsets. Last week was certainly good for the Big Red as they won at Dartmouth (83-80) and Harvard (67-61). They were underdogs of 3.5 and 9.5 points respectively in those two contests. They are one of three teams tied for second in the Ivy League with a 4-2 conference record. (Yale is 5-1). A couple games back is Brown (2-4), who managed to beat Princeton last Saturday after losing to Penn the previous night. Both games were at home. Maybe you're somewhat surprised to see me on Brown here, given that they are the road team and lost both matchups against Cornell last year. But I view the Bears as the better team as the last week has clouded the oddsmakers' judgement on Cornell, who is 0-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of three points or less or pick. Also, it should be mentioned that they trailed Harvard by 13 at halftime in the last game. Cornell isn't a particularly strong offensive team (only average 67.4 PPG at home) and they also turn the ball over too much. Brown is the better team defensively and should win going away here. Play on BROWN AAA |
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02-15-19 | South Alabama v. Georgia State -8.5 | Top | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on Georgia State Georgia State is one of several teams vying for Sun Belt Conference supremacy. They enter Friday tied for second place (with UT Arlington), a game behind Texas State. UT Arlington lost last night, which was a break for the Panthers. So too is drawing South Alabama in this spot as the underdog Jaguars are on a two-game losing streak and have just one win away from home this entire season. USA is pretty weak defensively (78.8 PPG allowed on the road) and that's something Georgia State should be able to exploit seeing as they average 81.8 PPG at home. This is not the 1st meeting of the season between the two sides. Georgia State won the first, almost exactly one month ago, 69-66. They did not cover (as they were 4-point favorites), but there's value for the rematch given the line should be higher based on the fact the Panthers were four-point favorites on the road. They shot only 39.0% and still won on the road. They'll shoot much better tonight and win big. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA |
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02-14-19 | Arizona +4 v. Utah | Top | 76-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARIZONAÂ Utah really burned me on Saturday. They were down 22 at UCLA, yet came all the way back and won at the buzzer, 93-92. It was their second upset win of the week as they'd won at USC last Wednesday. That's a huge difference from the previous week when they lost twice at home, both time as favorites. Tonight, they are back in Salt Lake facing an Arizona team that has lost five in a row and reeling (scandal!). But the Wildcats have already beaten the Utes once this year. They've won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall. Something to consider is Utah shot 56.6% in that first meeting and still didn't win. They couldn't win despite that shooting and are were lucky to win Saturday. I don't think Utah is the better team here, so I'll take the points. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-13-19 | Syracuse v. NC State -3 | Top | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NC STATE NC State recovered from an absolutely dreadful three-game stretch to beat Pitt over the weekend, 79-76, on the road. They were two-point favorites, so they got the cash too. Those three previous games read like a horror movie though. They lost by one to Virginia, scored only 24 points against Va Tech, then gave up 113 points to North Carolina. Still though, the Wolfpack are a team to be taken seriously in the ACC and I feel they'll come through tonight in Raleigh against Syracuse. The Orange find themselves closer to the top of the conference with only Duke, Virginia and UNC ahead of them. They beat Duke (in Durham), yet the market still really doesn't respect them that much and I'm not sure I do either. They are 8-3 ATS in conference play, including 4-1 on the road. But ... save for Duke, those road wins came against the bottom tier of the league. The Orange recently lost by 18 to Florida State ... at home. They are offensively challenged and thus I don't see them keeping pace with a NC State team that averages over 82 PPG. Play on NC STATE. AAA |
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02-12-19 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TEXAS Kansas State, not Kansas, is currently leading the Big 12. The Wildcats are 8-2 in conference play and have won three straight. The fact that they are in first place is pretty surprising when you consider they weren't even ranked going into the weekend and the Big 12 has multiple ranked teams. I view tonight as an opportunity to fade a team that has clearly moved from "underrated" to "overrated" in a pretty short period of time. The Wildcats' road record is only 4-4 and that includes four straight wins. They are in Austin tonight to take on a Texas team coming off a huge road win at West Virginia on Saturday where they prevailed by 22 points. The Longhorns have covered four straight and also have the advantage of having won in Manhattan by 20 earlier in the year. The revenge angle can sometimes be overrated. For example, WVU was playing with revenge against Texas on Saturday and that ended up meaning nothing. Revenge is again overrated here as Texas is the better team despite being unranked. The 'Horns 6-5 conference record is a little misleading when you consider those five losses have come by a total of 20 points. They have two 20+ points and also beat Kansas by double digits. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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02-10-19 | Stanford v. Oregon -6 | Top | 46-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OREGON Oregon's season was dealt the worst possible blow when Bol Bol was lost for the year, but they've continued to manage without him. They won Wednesday, 73-62 over Cal. While they did not cover the spread in that game (were -16), it was still a pretty impressive that the won so handily in spite of turning the ball over 15 times and attempting just five free throws. With a more manageable line tonight, look for the Ducks to cover this time. They host a Stanford team that's in a pretty rough scheduling spot. The Cardinal are playing a third straight road game here and second in four days. They have won the first two, against Cal and Oregon State. But this is clearly the toughest of three. Stanford was a 7.5-point dog when it beat Oregon State Thursday, by a score of 83-60. Clearly, that was the best possible performance from the Cardinal and thus unlikely to be repeated. PG Davis also left that game with a head injury and did not return. So his status is up in the air. Stanford is just 2-9 ATS after giving up less than 60 points in their last game. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-09-19 | Utah v. UCLA -4 | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* release on UCLA Very different results for these teams from Wednesday as Utah went to USC and won while UCLA lost at home to Colorado. Those results may have been different, but the home/road designations will be the same Saturday when they meet. The Utes have surprisingly won four of five on the conference road, but I wouldn't look for that to continue as they're only 1-4 SU and ATS all-time in Westwood. UCLA is 10-5 team at home and off back to back losses. Not only did they fall here to Colorado on Wednesday, they lost at Washington last Saturday. That puts the Bruins somewhat into desperation mode tonight and I don't have much hesitation laying the number considering they average more than 80 PPG at Pauley Pavilion. Despite the road prowess, Utah has only won 3 of 10 games where they were the underdog. They are allowing 76.8 PPG on the road. Play on UCLA AAA |
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02-09-19 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas State -5.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS STATE Texas State has been a real surprise as the Bobcats are one of three teams currently tied atop the Sun Belt with a 7-3 SU record. Their overall record is 18-5 SU, which is easily the best of any team in the conference. In fact, every team but one (Georgia State) has at least 10 losses. Tonight the Bobcats look to at least preserve their first place standing in a home game vs. Coastal Carolina, who is just one game back in the standings. The Chanticleers had won and covered their last five games before losing to UT Arlington by 20 on Thursday, a game that was expected to be close (line was +1.5). Texas State had actually lost two in a row (one to TX Arlington) before beating Appalachian State Thursday. With three straight ATS losses, the Bobcats appear to be undervalued in this spot. They already won at Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, doing so 65-61 as 2.5-point favorites. Here in San Marcos, Texas State owns a strong 10-2 record while outscoring the opposition by 16.5 PPG. Play on TEXAS STATE AAA |
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02-09-19 | Auburn +2.5 v. LSU | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on AUBURN The SEC has only three ranked teams, but that belies the strength of this league. Auburn is a team that isn't even ranked, but should be considered a real darkhorse come NCAA Tournament time. You'll notice that despite their unranked designation, the Tigers are just a short road underdog here vs. LSU, who is #21 in the country. Last Saturday, I played against LSU and they lost (as 10-point favorites) here in Baton Rouge to a struggling Arkansas team. They did bounce back from that loss by beating Mississippi State, but that required overcoming a double digit deficit in the second half, then overtime. It was the third OT win in SEC play alone this year for LSU. Auburn comes into this game on a three-game roll. All three wins have been by double digits. They are one of the top offensive teams in the country and I believe poised to close the regular season strong. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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02-08-19 | Princeton v. Yale -7 | Top | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on YALE Two of the Ivy League's heavyweights meet here with Yale hosting Princeton. Maybe you did a double take when you saw the only team with a perfect Ivy League record (Princeton) getting so many points. But Yale is the right call here as they've lost only one time in their L10 games and their record at home remains perfect (6-0). After losing at rival Harvard last Friday, they blew out Dartmouth (on the road) Saturday. They have covered 8 of the 11 times they have been favored this year. Part of the reason it is easy to like the Bulldogs at home (besides the perfect record) is they average 87 PPG. Princeton has won seven straight but will be playing its third in a row on the road. That puts them at a significant disadvantage as the home team is on an 8-3-1 ATS run in this rivalry (Princeton 1-5-1 ATS L7 times visiting Yale). Play on YALE AAA |
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02-08-19 | Pennsylvania v. Brown +1 | Top | 92-82 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BROWN You have to hand it to Pennsylvania. This season could have easily gone off the rails when last year's leading scorer Ryan Betley (an all-Ivy League player) was lost for the season (to an ACL injury). But the Quakers have circled the wagons, even beating Villanova, and have a 13-7 record coming into tonight. But their Ivy League brethren aren't taking it easy on them, that's for sure. Penn is just 1-3 in conference games. Here they're up against a team with an identical overall and conference record, that being Brown. The host Bears got blown out by Harvard in their last game. But they are 8-1 SU at home and that's a very big deal in a game the oddsmakers have listed as basically a pick em. Brown is averaging 82.6 points per game here at home. Penn is playing for a third straight time on the road. Brown has triple revenge. We're seeing Penn finally slow down (probably due to the loss of Betley) and that continues here. Play on BROWN AAA |
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02-07-19 | Western Kentucky -4.5 v. Rice | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Western Kentucky Western Kentucky definitely deserves to be favored by more than they are Thursday night at Rice. The Hilltoppers are certainly playing well of late. They've won five out of their last six games and Saturday's 76-59 beatdown of UTEP was the most definitive of the bunch. A strong finish and getting to the free throw line were both key in that win. But the Hilltoppers have been winning in a variety of ways lately, which is more than we can say for Rice. The Owls have lost five of seven and while all five losses have been by four points or less, this isn't a team worth your investment. They are bad at the defensive end (allow 78.3 PPG). Being that they are usually the underdog, Rice does sport a good ATS record. But the line is simply way too short tonight against a vastly superior opponent. WKU is 7-3 ATS in conference play in its own right. Play on WESTERN KENTUCKY AAA |
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02-07-19 | South Florida v. SMU -3.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SMU This game is a must have for SMU, which has dropped two straight. But those two losses were both on the road and to good teams, Wichita State and Cincinnati. Tonight, they are back home and facing a South Florida team that is a surprising 15-6 straight up. The Bulls have won three in a row and have done even more damage this year at the betting window where they are 16-5 ATS overall, including 8-1 in conference play. They are also 6-1 ATS as dogs. But they have not won four straight conference games since joining the American. They have also not had much luck here at Moody Coliseum where they are just 1-5 SU all-time. SMU is almost always a strong home team. While they have lost four home games this year, they are still outscoring visiting teams by 11.7 points per game. Play on SMU AAA |
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02-06-19 | Georgetown v. Providence -3 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PROVIDENCE Providence has some revenge on its mind when it hosts Georgetown Wednesday night. They lost a double overtime game to the Hoyas last month by a score of 96-90. The Friars aren't used to losing in this Big East rivalry. They'd previously beaten Georgetown eight straight times! It's been almost five years since the Hoyas won here in Rhode Island. Both teams are off losses here and in the case of Providence, they've lost two in a row. Both losses (Seton Hall, DePaul) were on the road though. They've had an extra day to prepare for this rematch as Georgetown played Sunday at Villanova. The Hoyas are last in the league defensively, so look for the Friars to break out of their offensive slump. Play on PROVIDENCE AAA |
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02-05-19 | Vanderbilt +8.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on VANDERBILT Vandy has had a lot of trouble winning games of late, but tonight sets up as an "ambush" spot for them against Arkansas. The Razorbacks just won - as 10-point underdogs - over LSU this past weekend. They're probably still feeling pretty good about themselves, especially now that they've covered four in a row. But it wasn't that long ago that the Hogs were suffering through their own tough stretch. Before those four straight ATS wins, they'd lost four in a row straight up and were 1-7 ATS over an eight-game stretch. They only beat LSU by one point on Saturday, despite shooting a blistering 58.3% from the field. They aren't likely to shoot that well again tonight. Vandy is 0-8 in SEC play and lost nine straight overall. Despite this, they will not go down easy Wednesday night. Expect a motivated effort from a team desperate for a SEC win. Arkansas has been favored by more than a point only twice in conference play. Play on VANDERBILT AAA |
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02-04-19 | Penn State +4 v. Northwestern | Top | 59-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PENN STATE The idiom "If I didn't have bad luck, I'd have none at all" seems quite apropos for this year's Penn State basketball team. What has happened to the Nittany Lions in Big 10 play is downright mystifying. They're 0-10 straight up with the majority of the games being close. Last week's home game vs. nationally ranked Purdue was either the icing on the cake, or final nail in the coffin, depending on your perspective. PSU rallied back from a 17-point deficit to force overtime, only to end up not covering as 7.5-point dogs (lost 99-90). This team is so much better than its conference record that it isn't even funny anymore. They play at Northwestern Monday. Like the Nittany Lions, the Wildcats had the weekend off. They're also on a losing streak, just two games mind you, but both were double digit affairs. The Wildcats opened Big 10 play with a couple of close (i.e. two-point) losses. Since then, they've lost five times by double digits while producing three narrow victories. Penn State is long overdue for a conference win and should get it here. Grab the points. Play on PENN STATE AAA |
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02-03-19 | Northern Kentucky -4.5 v. Illinois-Chicago | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Northern Kentucky I just can't see Northern Kentucky losing back to back games. The Horizon League leaders were upset by IUPUI two nights ago, losing 83-77 as three-point road favorites. In terms of points allowed, it was the most the Norse have given up in any conference game to date. Usually, they are the ones shooting the lights out and it doesn't matter if they're home or away. In their last 3 road games, Northern Kentucky has scored 95, 91 and 82 points. On Sunday afternoon they visit an Illinois-Chicago team that they already defeated earlier in the year. That was a relatively easy win for the Norse as they prevailed 73-58 as 8.5-point favorites. They led by 16 at halftime. They're 5-0 SU vs. UIC since joining the Horizon League and in four of the games, UIC has shot the ball poorly. The Flames were the beneficiary of some poor shooting by the opponent Friday when they beat Wright State 67-53. Wright State finished with a 28.1 FG%. UIC won't be able to hold Northern Kentucky to anywhere close to that number. Play on NORTHERN KENTUCKY AAA |
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02-02-19 | San Diego State -13 v. San Jose State | Top | 67-56 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on San Diego State San Jose State is a very bad basketball team. The Spartans have lost have lost 11 in a row to fall to 3-17 on the year. Their most recent loss was one of the uglier ones as they went down by 30 at the hands of Utah State. With the exception of a two-point home loss to Air Force last Saturday, eight of the last nine losses have been by 13 points or more and in conference play they're getting outscored by 23 PPG. In comes San Diego State tonight and the Aztecs have covered four in a row, including two straight double digit wins. Those two wins both came at home. While I understand that the Mountain West road has not been that kind, the fact is that San Jose State is one of the worst teams in the entire country. The Aztecs have never lost a game in which they have been favored by 12.5 or more points on the road and aren't about to lose here. I think they win quite comfortably. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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02-02-19 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Illinois | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEBRASKA Nebraska is in a free fall right now as they've lost four in a row, the last three all coming as favorites. The last two losses both occurred in Lincoln and now the Cornhuskers must hit the road to face an Illinois team that is also struggling, but better than its record. Laying points on the road might not seem like the best option right now with Nebraska, especially seeing as they are now without second leading scorer Isaac Copeland, Jr. But they are the better team in this matchup and should win pretty easily. While the Cornhuskers are clearly underperforming as of late, Illinois hasn't been favored a single time in Big 10 play. Nebraska already beat the Illini earlier in the year, 75-60, as a 13-point home favorite. Looking at the line for today's rematch, there's definitely some value on the road favorite. With Copeland out, look for leading scorer James Palmer Jr to pick up the slack as he's coming off a bad game anyway and should rebound in a positive way here. Defensively, Nebraska only gives up 62.5 PPG. Play on NEBRASKAÂ AAA |
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02-02-19 | Kent State v. Ball State -4 | Top | 83-80 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BALL STATE These MAC rivals have something in common headed into Saturday. They both lost to Buffalo in their last game. In the case of Kent State, the loss occurred last Friday and at home. It was an 88-79 final where the Golden Flashes just missed out on the cover. Ball State had to go to Buffalo on Tuesday and they were blown out 83-59. Even worse is that the Cardinals lost a player, Trey Moses, to a knee injury in that game. Moses is their 4th leading scorer, but even without him, I believe Ball State comes up big in this spot. They still have three double digit scorers, mind you. Kent State was supposed to play a game Thursday (at Western Michigan), but that had to be postponed due to the winter weather. Perhaps that throws off their rhythm? Something that is shocking is the Golden Flashes have beaten the Cardinals 16 of the last 17 times they have met. Ball State has also lost its last three home games. Yet BSU is the one favored in the spot, even though Kent State comes in with a 15-5 SU record. Something is fishy in the water here, so to speak. Ball State won't shoot as poorly here as they did vs. Buffalo (went 2 of 23 on 3PA). Play on BALL STATE AAA |
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02-01-19 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Green Bay -7 | Top | 74-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on GREEN BAY The Horizon League's two Wisconsin schools renew acquaintances Friday night with Green Bay hosting Milwaukee. The two "Cheese State" rivals already met once this year and it was Green Bay winning on the road, 92-82, back in late December. The Phoenix were slight favorites in that contest. But since winning and covering at Milwaukee's expense, they've gone just 1-7 at the betting window. Because of that, this line opened too low. Sharp money quickly pounced on the home side and I was right with it as there is no doubt in my mind that Green Bay will score plenty tonight. They already average an impressive 92.2 points at home. They give up their fair share too, but Milwaukee happens to come into tonight in poor offensive form, having scored just 54 and 60 points in its last two games. The Panthers are on the road for a third straight time here and that could spell trouble as they simply do not shoot the ball very well away from home. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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01-31-19 | Tulane +5 v. East Carolina | Top | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TULANE These are two bad yet seemingly evenly matched teams. Therefore, I'm not sure why anyone would want to lay the points with East Carolina. The Pirates have lost five in a row coming into tonight, the last four all by double digits. Last week, they lost by 44 at Houston and by 20 here in Greenville to USF. They didn't even score 60 points in either game. So, again, they do not make for good chalk. Tulane is winless in conference play and has lost nine in a row. But this might just be the Green Wave's best shot at achieving a victory in the American ... until hosting ECU at the end of the regular season. But I wouldn't want to be caught laying points with Tulane either when that time comes. Both teams are giving up 80.4 PPG in conference action. Taking the points here simply makes sense. The underdog has covered 9 of the past 10 times these two have faced off. Play on TULANEÂ AAA |
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01-30-19 | LSU v. Texas A&M +5 | Top | 72-57 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on TEXAS A&M LSU has won nine in a row, but the win streak was very much on life support Saturday at Missouri. I didn't even discuss this in the Missouri-Auburn writeup, but LSU trailed by 14 with just over two minutes to go in regulation. They ended up forcing overtime and winning 86-80. A lot has certainly gone the Tigers way of late, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see their win streak come to a halt tonight in College Station. So, four our second SEC play of the day, we'll be taking Texas A&M plus the points. The Aggies have not had a good go of it in conference play. But stepping outside the SEC brought them success on Saturday as they picked up a quality non-conference win over Kansas State in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge. I think the way that the Aggies played there will carry over into tonight. Look for them to take advantage of the fact LSU is giving up 77.1 points per game on the road. Using a 2-3 zone, A&M turned in one of its best defensive efforts of the season against Kansas State. That can be duplicated here. Play on TEXAS A&MÂ AAA |
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01-30-19 | Missouri v. Auburn -14.5 | Top | 58-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on AUBURN Auburn is a good team that has recently hit a rough patch. A three-game losing streak has the Tigers out of the Top 25 for the first time all season. This is a team that twice got as high as #8 in polls. Bruce Pearl's team was the betting favorite in all three of its recent losses, so even though the spread is higher than you might think tonight, it's a good "buy low" spot as they welcome in an outclassed Missouri squad. Mizzou has lost five of six and hasn't been favored to beat anyone in SEC play. Two of the three games Auburn just lost were by decided by three points or less. Also, the last two were on the road. The only time the Tigers have been beaten at home this year was by two by Kentucky. Otherwise, they're 9-0 on campus and their scoring differential here (+26.6 points per game) is quite impressive. They average 90.1 PPG at home and anything approaching that number will be make it difficult, if not impossible, for Missouri to stay within the spread. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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01-30-19 | Louisville v. Wake Forest +11 | Top | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Wake Forest Louisville has been trending in a positive direction of late as one of the hotter teams in the country. Perhaps the reason for them being "under the radar" for a good portion of the season is the disgraceful way the Rick Pitino era ended. But the Cardinals will certainly have the attention of their opponent (Wake Forest) tonight. The Demon Deacons opened as double digit home underdogs for this contest and I like them plus the points. Not only is Louisville in a lookahead to a weekend home game vs. North Carolina, but they have a losing record (3-4) away from home this year. Wake hasn't had much go its way in ACC play (1-6 straight up record), however, that one win was an upset over North Carolina State here in Winston-Salem. After being blown out by both Virginia Tech and Virginia in a tough pair of road games, the Demon Deacons only lost by four in their last game, which was at home. That despite leading scorer Brandon Childress scoring only eight points. The only other time Wake lost three straight times this year, the upset of NC State followed. Play on WAKE FOREST AAA |
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01-29-19 | Nevada v. UNLV +9.5 | Top | 87-70 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNLV Nevada is expected to waltz to another regular season crown in the Mountain West, but road games have not been in a "walk in the park" for the Wolf Pack by any means. Their only loss was a road game and it was a very ugly 27-point loss at New Mexico. They have won two games on the road since then, but one of them was by just a single point at Fresno State. They regained their "mojo" last week with a couple of easy home games against Air Force and Colorado State, the latter coming by 40 points. But coming off such an easy win can be just as much a curse as it is a blessing and in this case, Nevada wil have to guard against overconfidence as it gets set to face rival UNLV. The Rebels do come in a tad bit wounded after losing by 17 at San Diego State over the weekend. But they're 8-3 in Vegas and give up only 63.4 points per game here. Play on UNLVÂ AAA |
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01-29-19 | Ball State +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 59-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on BALL STATE Buffalo is the class of the MAC, but has seemed a lot more vulnerable of late. The Bulls even lost a game last week, as 9.5-pt favorites, at Northern Illinois. That was followed by a closer than expected call at Kent State on Saturday where they didn't pull away until the final minutes (just did cover the 8.5-point spread). Tonight, Nate Oats' team returns home to take on Ball State. The Cardinals are looking to bounce back from two upset losses of their own last week, the first to Miami and the second to Ohio. Overall, they have dropped five out of their last six games. But they'll be plenty motivated tonight, knowing this is just the second time all year that they have been double digit dogs. The first was at Purdue and they covered that game. Four of BSU's last five losses have come as favorites, so they've definitely been underperforming of late. But coming in as big dogs should suit them well Tuesday as they're 17-10 ATS the last 27 times they've taken points. Play on BALL STATE AAA |
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01-28-19 | Duke v. Notre Dame +14.5 | Top | 83-61 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NOTRE DAME Duke is #2 in the polls and figures to stay in that position when the new rankings come out later today. Obviously, they are among the most talented teams in the country. But the Blue Devils have also failed to cover four of their last five games. Despite still winning by 13, Saturday was a somewhat ugly win over Georgia Tech. Duke trailed at halftime of that game and shot just 2 of 23 from three-point range. Fortunately for them, Georgia Tech simply isn't a very good team and probably wasn't capable of winning at Cameron Indoor Stadium. But anywhere near a similar shooting night from Duke would likely cost them here in South Bend. Notre Dame has struggled for much of 2019 as they're just 1-7 ATS their last eight games and come into Monday riding a four-game SU losing streak. They are 0-4 straight up and against the spread the last four meetings with Duke. But Mike Brey's teams have also been strong at home and you almost never see them getting as many points as they are tonight. They did just get blown out by Virginia here on Saturday, but I expect a better performance tonight. Duke's three-point shooting woes are very real and will make it difficult to cover large spreads such as this one the road. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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01-27-19 | Iowa +1 v. Minnesota | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Iowa Though they're playing at home, I do not believe Minnesota should be the favorite today vs. Iowa. Sure, the Golden Gophers turned in a game effort in losing to Michigan 59-57 Tuesday. But they're not the better team here. Iowa is also off a painful setback, theirs at home to Michigan State, but the Hawkeyes had also won and covered five straight before that. While they may have some issues at the defensive end, Iowa is a top 10 team nationally in offensive efficiency. They average 82.0 points per game. Minnesota is just 7-17 ATS its last 24 Big 10 games and 1-6 ATS its last seven home games. Iowa did lead Michigan State at halftime Thursday, despite a poor overall shooting night and not getting to the free throw with the regularity they're used to. The Hawkeyes lead the country in FT% and FT attempts, but only got there eight times vs. the Spartans. Minnesota losing on a buzzer-beater to Michigan was the more painful loss than Iowa falling to MSU and will be more difficult to get over. Play on IOWA AAA |
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01-26-19 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VA TECH So Syracuse is playing really well of late. As for Virginia Tech, not so much. Thursday's 73-53 blowout of Miami marked the seventh win in the last eight games for the Orange. Curiously, their one loss was to Georgia Tech - at home. During the streak, they were able to go to Duke and win - as 17-point underdogs. So I can see how they'd be very tempting as an underdog here. Virginia Tech hasn't covered any of their last five games and has been blown out in two of the games. But but both blowouts were on the road and they came against Virginia and North Carolina, two of the very best teams in the country. Syracuse might be hot, but they aren't Virginia or North Carolina. This game is also in Blacksburg. The Hokies are 10-0 at home, winning by an average margin of 28.7 points per game. They are simply a much better team here. Syracuse won't shoot as well tonight as they did vs. Miami. I guarantee it! Play on VIRGINIA TECHÂ AAA |
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01-26-19 | Northern Illinois v. Akron -4 | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on AKRON Northern Illinois is coming off its biggest win of the season, a 77-75 upset of Buffalo. That was a real shocker with the Huskies coming out ahead as 9.5-point underdogs. So it would only be logical for there to be a bit of a letdown their next time out. Their next time out is today at an Akron team that plays remarkably good defense, especially at home. The Zips are only giving up 62.7 points per game for the year and that number drops to 56.3 at home, which explains why they are 9-1 at James A. Rhodes Arena. There's some revenge in the air tonight as well. The Zips lost out in DeKalb 73-56 earlier in the month. They were one-point favorites over Northern Illinois in that game. When you compare lines for the two games, certainly there would appear to be some value on the home team in this rematch. Yes, you must factor in the fact Akron was blown out on the road the first time. But they aren't about to shoot only 34% from the field again nor will they allow NIU to shoot almost 56% either. Play on AKRON AAA |
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01-26-19 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6.5 | Top | 64-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PENN ST Penn State is catching Rutgers off an upset. While it might seem logical to tie the Scarlet Knights' upset over Nebraska to the return of leading scorer Eugene Omoruyi, he had only 9 points on 2 of 9 shooting. Rather, it was a career night from Montez Mathis, who went for 20 points and nine rebounds. Rutgers came from behind to beat the Cornhuskers, 76-69 as 8.5-point underdogs. But that was at home. The last time this team was off an upset, they went out and lost their next game by 18 (at Minnesota) on the road. It's the exact same scenario here and I expect an identical result. Penn State may have lost its last six games, but they've played a lot better than their record suggests. All six Big 10 losses have come to likely NCAA Tournament teams and the last one was the most painful as they blew an 11-point second half lead and lost by 1 at Minnesota. It was the second straight loss where the Nittany Lions were leading at the half. They've had a week off to recover from that Minnesota loss, however. That's one advantage. Another is on the defensive end. Penn State actually ranks inside the top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency. Rutgers is a surprising 44th in its own right, but only 220th on offense. Penn State is due for a big win and gets it here. Play on PENN STATE AAA |
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01-26-19 | Washington v. Oregon State -2 | Top | 79-69 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OREGON STATE Washington kept its unbeaten Pac 12 record intact with a 61-56 win at Oregon Thursday. Despite jumping out to a 13-2 lead in that game, it was not easy. The Ducks, playing without Bol Bol, came back with a huge rally to take the lead in the second half. The three Huskies starters that finished in double figures combined to shoot 18 of 28. This is Washington's best start in conference play in 35 years and they've won eight in a row overall. But I see those streaks coming to an end today in Corvallis. The Huskies might be playing good defense right now, but Oregon State is 8-1 at home where it averages 81.0 points per game. Earlier in the year, Washington did pull off a weekend road sweep of Utah and Colorado. But it was just the fifth time they pulled off the feat in the last decade. I don't see it happening again this week. In addition to being 8-1 SU at home, Oregon State is also 6-2 ATS with a push Thursday vs. Washington State. The Beavers scored 90 points in that game. Washington is only 2-9 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. Play on OREGON STATE AAA |
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01-26-19 | Illinois +9.5 v. Maryland | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Illinois This is a neutral site game with the teams playing at Madison Square Garden. Maryland, who has been a surprise this year, is off a bad performance against Michigan State. A team that averages 75.6 points per game scored only 55 against the Spartans, on 34.4% shooting. Now it would be easy to chalk that up to playing a very good opponent. It was not just the fewest points scored by Maryland in any game, it was also their second worst shooting percentage. Certainly, Sparty had a lot to do with it. But I wouldn't go counting on an immediate bounce back from the Terrapins. Rather, this sets up as a fairly tricky spot against an Illinois team that has been more "unlucky" than bad. The Illini competed hard earlier this week at Wisconsin, only to come up a bit short. Despite shooting only 35 percent, they were still tied with the Badgers midway through the second half. I think this neutral setting is a blessing for the underdog, who would have probably struggled in College Park. It is absolutely worth pointing out that Maryland is just 1-5-1 ATS its last seven games against teams with losing records. This number is too high. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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01-24-19 | Washington v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 61-56 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OREGON The Pac 12 is in the midst of a down year. So much so that there's a very strong chance only one team from the conference will make the NCAA Tournament. Right now Washington leads the league with a 5-0 record. They are the only team without a loss. But few teams are really out of it. You'd have to figure that Oregon would be near the top were it not for losing star Bol Bol a couple weeks back. It was partly because of Bol's absence that I faded the Ducks Saturday night. But it was also because they were on the road and just a small underdog facing an Arizona State team that had beaten Kansas earlier in the year. Back at home, I expect Oregon to snap Washington's seven-game win streak and hand them their first Pac 12 loss. All four Huskies losses this season have come on the road. This is their first time starting 5-0 in Pac 12 play in 35 years. They were lucky to get away with a poor performance (missed 13 of first 14 shots) against a bad Cal team last Saturday. They still won 71-57, but are 1-9 ATS after the last 10 times they gave up 60 points or less. Oregon is 8-3 straight up in Eugene. Play on OREGON AAA |
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01-24-19 | Miami-FL +8.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMIÂ You have to tip your cap to Syracuse for playing well of late. They have that win over Duke (where they were 17-point underdogs), which is part of a 4-1 start in ACC play and 6-1 run over the last seven games overall. But let's see if they can mantain it. After this game, they'll play their next three on the road. But don't go thinking this matchup with Miami at the Carrier Dome will be any walk in the park. The Hurricanes haven't been quite as lucky in ACC play, getting off to just a 1-4 start. But they've played the likes of Florida State, North Carolina State and North Carolina tough. Versus North Carolina, they were tied at the half and it was a 1-point game with just 6 1/2 minutes left. There were 18 lead changes despite the Tar Heels shooting 55 percent overall. Syracuse isn't going to shoot that well, mark my words. The Orange are only shooting 42% for the year. The road team has covered 9 of the last 11 meetings with Miami going 4-1 ATS at the Carrier Dome. Play on MIAMI. AAA |
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01-23-19 | St. Louis v. Duquesne +2 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Duquesne. Here's a play that I really love. Saint Louis is a good defensive team and unbeaten (5-0) in Atlantic 10 play. I wouldn't exactly be ready to trust the Billikens to go out and win a road game with this offense, which is rated an ugly 255th in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. The team isn't ranked, nor should it be, as so far all its done is taken advantage of a very week bottom of the A-10. They have won at LaSalle and Fordham, but those two are a combined 1-9 in conference play. In fact, four of the Billikens five A-10 victories have come against teams that are a combined 2-19 SU in conference play. Tonight they face Duquesne, who's no world beater, but does average 77.8 PPG at home where they are 11-2 straight up. Twice this season, the Dukes have been a home dog of three points or less. Both times they won the game. They're 4-1 ATS in that role the last three seasons. This will be called an upset by the national media, but really it isn't much of an upset at all. Play on DUQUESNE AAA |
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01-22-19 | New Mexico v. UNLV -5.5 | Top | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UNLV Two longtime Mt West rivals meet here in Sin City with UNLV hosting New Mexico. Everyone is chasing Nevada in this league and no one is likely to catch them. UNLV is a bit closer than New Mexico though as a win tonight would put them in a first place tie with the Wolf Pack. Though over time, Nevada will pull away, I do believe the Rebels will find themselves in a first place tie after tonight. They're favored and for good reason as they're at home and the superior defensive outfit. Both teams are off blowout wins - New Mexico 83-53 over Wyoming and UNLV 94-56 over San Jose State. But of the two teams, UNLV is the one more likely to turn in another strong defensive effort. They give up just 63.9 PPG at home. New Mexico, whose 30-point win over Wyoming was at home, gives up 79.6 PPG on the road. The Lobos have lost their last two road games, both by double digits. Play on UNLV. AAA |
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01-22-19 | Mississippi State +6.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 55-76 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MISS ST Kentucky has started to move up the rankings and comes into this game at #8 in the country. That seems a bit high to me and they're going to be tested tonight by another ranked squad, that being #22 Mississippi State. Normally, you'd expect a team to be "up" for a visit from a fellow ranked foe. But in the case of UK, Miss State comes smack dab in the middle of an Auburn-Kansas sandwich. The Wildcats outlasted Auburn 82-80 in a very hard fought game on Saturday and there's no doubt that the players will be looking forward to this weekend's showdown with the Jayhawks. So look for the road dog to come in and catch UK "napping." MSU is no slouch as they are off a week where they beat both Florida and Vanderbilt. There are two keys to this game for the Bulldogs. One is three-point shooting. They have made 156 three-point shots this year, which is second most among SEC schools. Kentucky is 13th in 3-pt FGM at 102. Also, MSU tends to dominate the boards, something they did exceptionally well at Vanderbilt where they didn't allow a single offensive rebound in the second half. Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE. AAA |
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01-21-19 | Iowa State v. Kansas -5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KANSAS. I like KANSAS to bounce back here from a weekend loss in Morgantown, West Virginia. That loss saw the Jayhawks go down on a last-second layup as they allowed the game's final seven points. The last time Kansas was off a loss (1.5 @ Iowa State), I grabbed them at home laying single digits and they took care of business against TCU, 77-68. Given KU is now facing the team that handed them that previous loss, I say they'll be especially motivated tonight at Allen Fieldhouse. It isn't often that Bill Self's team is this short of a favorite on its own floor. They are 10-0 in Lawrence this year. Since beating Kansas, Iowa State has lost twice - both time as a favorite. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the Cyclones and they did get back on track last week with two wins, one of them at Texas Tech. But all the signs point to a strong showing by Kansas, who is a) at home, b) off a loss and c) playing with revenge. Iowa State is just 1-6-1 ATS its last eight Monday games, so this is really an inopportune time for this game (from their perspective). Play on KANSAS AAA |
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01-21-19 | Old Dominion v. Charlotte +7.5 | Top | 76-70 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHARLOTTE. Following in the path of George Mason and VCU, Old Dominion ditched the Colonial for a bigger conference, in this case Conference USA. But unlike those other teams (who both went to the Atlantic 10), the Monarchs have never gone to a Final Four, nor are they likely to anytime soon. While the Monarchs do boast a 10-1 SU record at home this year, they're just 4-4 otherwise and today they find themselves in a tricky spot traveling to Charlotte and having to lay points. Before crushing Southern Miss over the weekend, ODU had failed to cover five straight games. That streak included an outright loss at Florida Atlantic. Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last five games and just upset Louisiana Tech here over the weekend. The 49ers are accustomed to being underdogs and have been playing excellent defense recently. They held La Tech to 27.8% shooting, making it three of the last four opponents failing to shoot above 38%. ODU typically also plays good defense, but can be exploited from the three-point line where they are allowing 38.9% shooting away from home. Charlotte is 5-2 ATS its last seven home games. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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01-20-19 | South Dakota +5 v. Nebraska-Omaha | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on South Dakota I always give at least a cursory glance to the added board on a day such as this and today something really caught my eye. South Dakota probably deserves to have a better record than its current mark of 8-10 as all but three of those defeats have been by six points or less. I like them today in the underdog role visiting Omaha. The hosts got off to a very rough 3-7 start to this year, but have turned things around by going 7-1 in their last eight games. But don't go buying these Mavericks just yet as I don't believe they'll be able to maintain their recent scoring pace. South Dakota will slow this game down and play at their preferred tempo, which should keep things lower scoring and thus an ideal spot for an underdog. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH DAKOTAÂ AAA |
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01-20-19 | Florida State v. Boston College +6.5 | Top | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON COLLEGE Florida State has not been even a little bit reliable as a favorite in the 2018-19 season. They've gone 5-10 ATS in that role and just lost outright at Pittsburgh earlier in the week. That was certainly a tough spot to be laying points on the road as the 'Noles were just 48 hours removed from coming up two points shorts against Duke. But losing to Pitt by 13 was pretty bad. So was missing 20 of their 22 three-point attempts in the game. Here, FSU again is on the road. They'll be playing Boston College, whose dropped five in a row. But be aware that two of those five losses for the Eagles have come by three points or less. For B.C., this is a welcome return to Chesnut Hill as they've lost tough road games to Notre Dame and Louisville in the last week. Boston College does have four double digit scorers. They're also 5-1 ATS when taking points. They've covered in three of those five losses. This one could be an upset win. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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01-19-19 | Oregon v. Arizona State -3.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARIZONA STATE Not even a month ago, Arizona State was ranked 18th in the country. They welcome in Kansas (ranked #1 at the time) and upset the Jayhawks 80-76 as a three-point underdog. That the Sun Devils were only a three-point underdog to Kansas, even at home, shows they are a team to be respected. That win got ASU as high as #17 in the polls, but they've gone just 3-3 since and barely beat Oregon State Thursday night here at home. However, this sets up the Sun Devils as a strong value play on tonight's card. They'll be facing an Oregon team whose season has taken a more permanent turn for the worse with Bol Bol done for the year. The Ducks are also 3-3 in their last six games, but unlike Arizona State, I don't really see any kind of turnaround forthcoming. If you don't think Arizona State won't be motivated by the fact they've lost seven in a row to Oregon, think again. Despite the Oregon State game ending up as a close call, the Sun Devils did have an 18-point lead in the second half. Look for Bobby Hurley's team to win big Saturday night. Play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA |
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01-19-19 | Western Michigan +8.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 48-79 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WESTERN MICHIGAN With a snowstorm expected to hit the area, gametime has been moved up to 2:30 ET, rather than the originally scheduled 6:00 ET tip time. For Western Michigan, I guess that means they'll get to go home with at least an ATS win a little earlier than expected! Despite Bowling Green being undefeated in conference play and WMU being winless, these teams are a lot closer in true talent than their respective records show. Bowling Green has been the betting favorite in only one of its four MAC games thus far while Western Michigan just had to play the best team in the league, Buffalo. Before that, they faced a good Toledo team. Bowling Green will be a pretty clear drop in class from those two previous opponents and the Broncos did win outright in their lone road game in this price range (+6.5 to +9) when they went to Oakland and won 85-77. Despite their 6-11 SU record, WMU has only been outscored by about 1 point per game over the course of the season. Play on WESTERN MICHIGANÂ AAA |
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01-19-19 | Wright State v. Cleveland State +7.5 | Top | 89-66 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
Wright State has had a very unlucky year. Five losses by four points or less. They did win a close one Thursday though, beating Youngstown State 80-74. Saturday finds the Raiders trying to win back to back games for just the third time this season. The previous two instances all occurred at home. Here they would have to turn the trick all on the road. Cleveland State is having an even tougher season at 5-15 SU and they've opened Horizon League play by going 0-7. But giving the Vikings hope is that Wright State is playing its FIFTH straight road game. That's pretty rare. Cleveland State's leading scorer is Tyree Appleby. He is listed as questionable here, stemming from the illness that kept him out of the Northern Kentucky game. Not having him would not be ideal, but this just hasn't been Wright State's year. I look for the home underdog to surprise. Play on CLEVELAND STATE. |
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01-18-19 | Xavier v. Villanova -10 | Top | 75-85 | Push | 0 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Villanova. It shouldn't be any real surprise but Villanova is again ruling the Big East. They've started conference play with four straight wins and are on a five-game win streak overall. Some of the wins have been close. But the last one was most impressive. They went to Creighton and put up 90 in a 12-point win Sunday. That was a memorable performance for me as well considering I took the Wildcats. I will again Friday. They're playing Xavier tonight. The Musketeers have won two straight home games, beating Georgetown and Butler. But they are still playing without injured point guard Quentin Goodwin. His backup made a career high five three-pointers in the last game, which ended up being a one-point win over Butler. Xavier won't get that kind of production here. Villanova has won 26 of the last 31 meetings and four straight. Play on VILLANOVA. AAA |
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01-17-19 | Towson v. Drexel -5 | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DREXEL Towson and Drexel are both near the bottom of the Colonial. Of the two, Drexel has been slighty better. They have eight overall wins and two conference wins to Towson's five and one. So the Dragons definitely deserve to be favored at home, but in my opinion the oddsmakers should have them laying even more points. Towson has lost its last five games, all by eight points or more an is 0-5 ATS. Drexel can score. They average 81.4 points per game at home. Problem is they gave up 97 in their last game. That was on the road though. Towson won't be scoring anywhere close to that many points tonight. They've been held to 65 points or less four times during the five-game losing streak. They average only 66.6 points per game. Drexel has covered 4 of the 5 games it's been favored. Towson is 4-8 ATS as an underdog. Play on DREXEL. AAA |
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01-16-19 | UCF v. Wichita State +3.5 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Wichita State. A late tipoff at Koch Arena in Wichita tonight and I think that helps the home team a lot as UCF is already making a long trek here. The length of road trips is certainly something worth noting in the American Conference where the schools are pretty spread out across the Eastern half of the United States. Virtually every team in this league has an impressive home record, but no one is exactly tearing it up on the road. UCF is the only American team without a conference loss, but I look for that to change after tonight as Wichita State is not used to being below .500 (SU record is 7-8 right now), nor are they accustomed to four-game losing streaks like the one they are on now. True to the story I'm telling here, three of those four losses were out on the road. The only home loss was by four to Temple. This is the longest losing skid for the Wheat Shockers in several seasons and it's not often you find them as a home underdog. It hasn't happened this year, until now. They are 5-2 SU at home this year and +6.9 PPG. Play on WICHITA STATE AAA |
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01-16-19 | Iowa v. Penn State +1 | Top | 89-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Penn State. Penn State is 0-6 and in last place in the Big 10 standings (7-10 overall). But I think we are very likely to soon see the Nittany Lions play like they did during the non-conference portion of the schedule. The Big 10 is very tough this year with 9 or maybe even 10 teams possibly NCAA Tournament bound. It seems like the Nittany Lions have played darn near all the top teams in the league so far. They are coming off a brutal gauntlet of Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan State, who collectively might be the Big 10's four best teams. They've also faced Maryland and Indiana. Iowa should be considered a Big Dance team right now and they are coming off a few big wins of their own, the most recent being one that I was on as they beat Ohio State by 10. But this game is in Happy Valley and Iowa is probably the weakest Big 10 team PSU has faced yet. Big edge on defense for the Nittany Lions in this matchup as they are 20th in defensive efficiency while Iowa ranks 82nd. Play on PENN STATE. AAA |
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01-15-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -6 | Top | 49-51 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Akron. Akron could really use a win here as they went 0-2 on the road last week. One of those losses was by only two points (to Central Michigan) in overtime. Coming off that painful loss, the Zips were then surprisingly blown out, 73-56, at Northern Illinois. But it's not like they started poorly; they actually led 34-25 at halftime before NIU got ridiculously hot in the second half, shooting almost 75% from the field. Fortunately, Akron is back home tonight where they've gone 7-1 on the year. They'll host Eastern Michigan, who has been a real Jekyll and Hyde outfit this season. They just turned in a couple Jekyll-type performances last week in beating Ball State (in overtime) and Kent State. But I look for a "Hyde-like" showing tonight considering the Eagles' woeful numbers on the road. They are just 1-5 SU outside of Ypsilanti and getting outscored by almost 20 PPG. Akron plays outstanding defense at home (55.9 PPG allowed!) and has double revenge from two losses suffered at the hands of EMU last season. Play on AKRON. AAA |
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01-14-19 | Syracuse v. Duke -17 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on DUKE. This is a matchup that always attracts a lot of attention nationally as you have two famous coaches who have guided their respective programs to National Championships. But, let's face it. Duke has a sizable edge coming into this meeting and that's true whether or not Zion Williamson is able to play Monday. The Blue Devils are #1 in the country and will stay that way thanks to a last second three-pointer that beat Florida State, 80-78, on Saturday. Williamson was poked in the eye and missed the entire second half. Coach K has gone on record as saying "he (Zion) is better now." Either way, a big edge to the Blue Devils, who are so far and away the best team in the country this year and playing at home. Syracuse is off a 73-59 loss to Georgia Tech, a game they were favored to win by 8.5-points. That game was at home too. Their 2-3 zone got torched for nearly 60% shooting by the Yellow Jackets. Duke has the depth and talent necessary to overcome a possible Williamson absence and the fact is they're outscoring opponents by almost 35 points per game here in Durham. Syracuse hasn't played many road games and this one won't be very fun. Play on DUKE AAA |
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01-13-19 | Villanova -1 v. Creighton | Top | 90-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Villanova Villanova has finally started to turn things around. The defending National Champs started slow this year with some shocking losses. Shocking in the sense that they were either to inferior foes (like Furman and Penn) or in blowout fashion (lost by 27 to Michigan). But since dropping two straight three-point decisions last month, the Wildcats have posted four straight wins coming into Sunday. They failed to cover at home vs. St. John's in their last game, but that was a nice win nevertheless. Today they're up against a Creighton team that has lost its last two games, including a heartbreaker vs. Marquette on Wednesday. They lost 106-104 in overtime after Marquette was able to tie the game with a late three in regulation. That's going to be a very difficult loss for the Bluejays to overcome. Nova is the only team in the Big East without a conference loss as their annual domination of this league could be forthcoming. I love them as basically a pick em here as Creighton really struggles defensively. The Wildcats have covered six of their last eight road games. Play on VILLANOVA AAA |
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01-12-19 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco +9 | Top | 96-83 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on San Francisco Not since the days of Wilt Chamberlain has their been a bigger basketball game on the campus of the University of San Francisco. You may think I'm falling prey to hyperbole with that statement, but it's true. Sure, this isn't the first time, nor the last, that a highly ranked Gonzaga team is coming here to play. But it's definitely the first time in a LONG time where the Dons come in thinking they can win. They are 14-2 this year, an excellent defensive team, and have been off for a full week to prepare for this game. When I took the Dons back on January 3rd against St. Mary's, I called that their biggest home game in some time. They won, 76-72, and covered as a small home favorite. This game is obviously even bigger and this time the Dons are getting points and plenty of them. Gonzaga has annihilated its last six opponents, but all those games were at home. This is their first time playing away from Spokane since losing to North Carolina on December 15th. USF is an experienced group whose two losses this year have been by a total of six points. They are 10-0 at home, allowing less than 60 points per game. I love them plus the points tonight. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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01-12-19 | Ohio State v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Iowa Ohio State is looking to rebound from an upset loss at the hands of Rutgers Wednesday night, a game they were favored to win by 5.5 points. They lost 64-61, which could drop them out of the top 25. Things get no easier tonight for the #16 team in the country as they have to visit Iowa, who is one of the nine Big 10 teams currently slotted for the NCAA Tournament. The Hawkeyes have pulled off consecutive minor upsets, first over Nebraska, then at Northwestern, the latter coming without leading scorer Tyler Cook. With this game being at home, they are favored here. Ohio State was 12-1, but has now dropped consecutive games for the first time. They lost at home to Michigan State last weekend, which was okay, but losing at Rutgers is not. Iowa should get Cook back here, which is a big deal seeing as he's also 5th in the Big 10 in rebounding. The Buckeyes are going to have trouble stopping a Hawkeyes team averaging 86.1 points/game in Iowa City, which is a major reason why they're 9-1 SU here this season. Play on IOWA AAA |
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01-12-19 | Providence v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 90-96 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Georgetown We look to the Big East for this early Saturday tip with Georgetown (11-5) hosting Providence (10-5). The host Hoyas haven't been very effective this season - or the last few for that matter - but the good news is the number is inconsequential today. The Hoyas are coming off two close losses, by three to St. John's and six to Xavier. It's a similar story for Providence as they've lost by 11 to Creighton and six to Villanova. But the difference is both Friars losses came at home. They (Providence) are also still without guard A.J. Reeves (a 14.2 PPG scorer). After losing both meetings last year (by a total of nine points), Georgetown is going to come in highly motivated Saturday. G'town is the superior offensive side in this one, averaging 82.7 PPG overall and 87.8 PPG at home. Play on GEORGETOWN AAA |
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01-11-19 | Indiana v. Maryland -4.5 | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Maryland The Big 10 is incredibly deep this season with as many as nine teams possibly NCAA Tournament bound. The two here both feel like they're going to finish near the top. Both Indiana and Maryland have a loss in conference play, but while the former can claim to be ranked, the latter has the advantages of getting this one at home and at a time when IU is a bit short-handed. The Hoosiers have almost no depth right now with four reserves injured. In Sunday's loss at Michigan, all 63 points came from the starting five. There's no shame losing in Ann Arbor, especially when you'd won seven in a row before that. But playing on the road for a second straight game might be. Maryland is 6-1 in its last 7 games, winning four in a row. They beat a good Nebraska team the last time they played at home and are off a minor upset of Minnesota on the road. Pay no mind to the fact Indiana is ranked and Maryland isn't. It's a fairly useless distinction and the homecourt provided a substantial edge. The Terps are already 4-0 ATS in Big 10 play. Play on Maryland AAA |
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