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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-02-18 | Orioles +197 v. Astros | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Astros looked awfully impressive in taking three of four games from the Rangers to open defense of their World Series championship but I believe they're overvalued in their home opener on Monday against Baltimore. The Orioles got their season off to a thrilling start with a walk-off win over the Twins last Thursday but couldn't keep it going over the weekend, dropping back-to-back games including a 7-0 setback on Sunday afternoon. We have nothing more than a toss-up on the mound here as far as I'm concerned with Chris Tillman going up against Charlie Morton. Morton was certainly a big part of the Astros World Series run last fall but I'm not sure he warrants the steep price here. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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04-02-18 | Twins +112 v. Pirates | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Monday. The Twins cruise into the Pirates home opener off of back-to-back wins over the Orioles while Pittsburgh returns home following a rain-soaked series against the Tigers in Detroit. The Buccos looked awfully good in Sunday's double-header, displaying great pitching in the afternoon contest before exploding offensively in the nightcap. High expectations are being pinned on Monday's starter Jameson Taillon. Even if he pitches well, I'm not sure the Pirates bats will do enough to secure the victory. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-01-18 | Yankees -110 v. Blue Jays | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Yankees at virtually a pk'em price on Sunday afternoon at Rogers Centre. The Jays got the better of the Yanks yesterday as Marco Estrada came up with a big performance on the hill. On Sunday, Toronto will turn to Marcus Stroman so the thinking is he'll be able to keep it rolling. I'm not so easily convinced, however. The Yankees obviously boast a formidable lineup from top to bottom and I look for them to give Sunday's starter Sonny Gray plenty of run support as they take this opening weekend series. Take New York (10*). |
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03-31-18 | Phillies v. Braves -119 | 2-15 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Brandon McCarthy is really nothing more than a longer term spot starter while the Braves young pitching prospects wait in the wings and prepare to make the jump to the big leagues. But I believe the veteran right-hander can pitch well in the N.L. East. The Braves are an undervalued commodity here out of the gates in 2018 and I have no problem going back to the well to back them again on Saturday night. Vince Velasquez will counter for the Phillies after being somewhat limited in Spring Training, following an injury-shortened 2017 campaign. I look for him to pitch reasonably well on Saturday, but he won't get enough offensive support to lift the Phillies to victory. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-31-18 | Indians -104 v. Mariners | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the Indians to get back at the Mariners after dropping the opener of this series on Thursday night. That contest really could have gone either way as both starters pitched well, as expected. We should see another well pitched game on Saturday afternoon but I give the Indians to edge with Carlos Carrasco going up against James Paxton. Carrasco certainly gets overshadowed by ace Corey Kluber in this Tribe rotation but he's certainly one of the elite starters in the game today. I do have a lot of respect for James Paxton but I'm just not sure he'll get enough support from his offense on Saturday afternoon. I feel the Indians are the superior team in this matchup and I'm confident they'll even up this series heading into a rubber match on Sunday afternoon. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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03-31-18 | Yankees -134 v. Blue Jays | 3-5 | Loss | -134 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll keep picking on the Jays as they simply drew a tough matchup against the loaded Yankees to open the 2018 campaign. Give New York the considerable edge on the mound again on Saturday afternoon as it hands the ball to CC Sabathia against Marco Estrada. I'm confident we'll see the Yanks lineup wear down Estrada just as they did against two other capable opposing pitchers the last two days in J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez. The price is right to back the Yankees again on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre. Take New York (10*). |
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03-30-18 | Phillies v. Braves -115 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Braves came back to win their home opener yesterday afternoon, rallying from a 5-0 deficit to walk off the Phillies. Philadelphia spent a lot of money in the offseason but I'm not convinced their signings will ultimately pay off. This is still a team that isn't likely to contend for a playoff spot. The Braves may be in the same boat, but at this stage of the season I believe they boast significant value. Give Atlanta the edge on the hill on Friday night, and certainly at the dish as they ride the wave created by yesterday's thrilling come-from-behind victory. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-30-18 | Yankees -145 v. Blue Jays | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Yankees in Thursday's season opener and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with New York again on Friday night. Masahiro Tanaka had a rough Spring for the Yanks but I don't believe he'll have any trouble flipping the switch as the game start for real. Meanwhile, Jays starter Aaron Sanchez has dealt with injury issues in the early stages of his career but certainly appeared healthy during the Jays Spring Training slate. With that being said, I'm not sure he'll get enough support from his offense here, nor will he be able to hold the Yankees loaded lineup in check. Take New York (10*). |
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03-29-18 | Indians -161 v. Mariners | 1-2 | Loss | -161 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. I simply feel that Indians ace Corey Kluber will dominate the Mariners lineup on Opening Day. Yes, we're being asked to lay a considerable price to back the Tribe in this matchup, but I believe it could be even higher. The Mariners have high hopes again this season but how many times have we heard that before? I won't be surprised if Seattle is an underachieving club again in 2018. King Felix Hernandez will take the ball on Thursday night but he'll be on a pitch count after missing time in Spring Training. Felix was drilled with a line drive in his throwing arm. I'm not sure how effective he'll be against a loaded Indians lineup. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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03-29-18 | Yankees -142 v. Blue Jays | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. I'm not sure the Blue Jays are truly putting their best foot forward on Opening Day. First of all, they'll be handing the ball to arguably their third best starting pitcher in J.A. Happ. Sure, Happ has enjoyed plenty of success the last few years but he has a tough draw in his first outing of 2018. We're also talking about a Jays club that has seen its window begin to close, with no big splash made in the free agent pool in the offseason - only a bit of roster tinkering took place in Toronto. I believe the time is now for Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to make the jump to the big leagues, but the Jays aren't ready to turn the page to the future just yet. It will be an emotional day at the ballpark on Thursday as the Jays honor the late Roy Halladay. I'll back the Yankees to make an early statement. Take New York (10*). |
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10-21-17 | Yankees +122 v. Astros | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Houston at 8 pm et on Saturday. |
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10-05-17 | Yankees v. Indians -135 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. Easy choice for me here. The Yankees are coming off the high of crushing an overmatched Twins club in the A.L. Wild Card game on Tuesday night. Now the quick turnaround to open a series with the Indians, on the road no less, where the Yanks are a losing team this season. Sonny Gray struggled for New York down the stretch and I expect him to have a tough time handling the Indians lineup on Thursday night as well. Trevor Bauer was terrific over the course of the final month of the regular season for the Indians. Look for him to hold the vaunted Yankees offense in check on Thursday. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-20-17 | Cubs -130 v. Rays | 1-8 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Cubs in St. Petersburg on Wednesday night. Jon Lester has worked six innings in each of his last two starts, both resulting in Cubs victories. The Cubs are 7-5 when he takes the ball on the road this season, giving him well north of five runs per start. Blake Snell will counter for Tampa Bay. After a solid stretch, he has now failed to work six innings in his last two starts, and checks in with a 1-3 home record, where his ERA has crept above four. The Rays are giving him less than four runs per start to work with at Tropicana Field. The Cubs are hot and the Rays are not. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-20-17 | Rockies -131 v. Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -131 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado over San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the playoff-hungry Rockies at AT&T Park on Wednesday afternoon. Tyler Chatwood will take the ball for Colorado. His numbers are certainly pedestrian this season as he's gone 8-12 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. However, he has pitched well over his last couple of starts, giving up just one earned run in 10 2/3 innings of work. The Rockies are a perfect 3-0 when Chatwood takes the hill since he rejoined the rotation earlier this month. Also note they've won his last seven starts against the Giants. San Francisco will turn to Matt Moore, who certainly hasn't looked comfortable pitching here at home, going 3-9 with a 4.48 ERA. The Giants have given Moore fewer than three runs per start to work with in this park. Moore has lasted at least six innings just once in his last three starts. The Giants are winless in his three previous outings against Colorado this season. Take Colorado (10*). |
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09-14-17 | Blue Jays v. Twins -158 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price to back the Twins here, but I believe that price could be even higher. The Jays saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last night in a 2-1 loss to the Orioles. Tonight they'll hand the ball to left-hander Brett Anderson. He's pitched reasonably well since joining the Jays. I'm just not sure he can keep it up. Despite the fact that he's given up just six earned runs in three starts, the Jays have won just one of those games. Jose Berrios will counter for Minnesota. He's had a typically sharp home/road dichotomy being a young starter. Here at Target Field, Berrios is an outstanding 8-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. It doesn't get much better than that pitching in an American League park. Note that Berrios will have the advantage of facing the Jays for the first time. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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09-12-17 | Orioles -125 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way this one sets up for the Orioles as they try to right the ship in Toronto and stick around in the A.L. Wild Card race. There's really no shame in a weekend series sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians, who are enjoying a record-setting run. Baltimore will hand the ball to Dylan Bundy on Tuesday night. He got roughed up by the Yankees in his last outing, lasting only four innings and allowing five earned runs. That ended a string of five straight starts in which he had worked at least six innings. I look for Bundy to bounce back here, noting that he has posted a winning record on the road this season, where the O's are giving him an impressive six runs per start to work with. The last time he faced the Jays back in April, Bundy worked six shutout innings. Joe Biagini will counter for Toronto. He hasn't lasted four innings in two of three starts since re-joining the rotation. His lone strong outing over that stretch actually came against these same Orioles as he tossed seven shutout innings - but the Jays still managed to lose that game 1-0. Biagini checks in a miserable 2-6 with an ERA well over five at Rogers Centre this season. Baltimore hasn't been good on the road this season, but it has enjoyed some success here in Toronto. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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09-07-17 | Cubs -129 v. Pirates | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Cubbies in Thursday's series finale against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Jon Lester will take the ball for Chicago. He's worked a grand total of just 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts after lasting at least six innings in five of his previous six outings. Lester didn't pitch well last time out but was bailed out by the Cubs bats as they produced 14 runs. After earning a free pass in that contest I look for Lester to bounce back strong here. Meanwhile, the Buccos will hand the ball to Jameson Taillon. He tossed six shutout innings in his last start. That ended a streak of three straight starts in which he didn't last six innings. Note that the Pirates are just 5-7 when Taillon starts at home this season, where he has posted an ERA just shy of five. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-05-17 | Astros -155 v. Mariners | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Astros as they head to Seattle to face the Mariners on Tuesday night. Justin Verlander will get his first start since joining the Astros. He has been pitching well, having worked at least six innings in nine consecutive starts entering Tuesday's contest. He's given up just four earned runs over his last three outings, spanning 21 innings of work. Ariel Miranda will counter for the Mariners. In stark contrast to Verlander, Miranda hasn't worked six innings in a start in over a month. He has been tagged for at least four earned runs in four of his last six starts. The Mariners are 5-7 when Miranda takes the ball at home this season. Take Houston (10*). |
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08-27-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -130 | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Baltimore at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Red Sox yesterday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Sunday afternoon. This one features a matchup of two starting pitchers who have turned things around recently. Wade Miley will take the ball for Baltimore. He has pitched well in two of his last three starts but keep in mind, those two strong performances came against the lowly A's. He'll be facing a much tougher challenge at Fenway Park on Sunday. Doug Fister will counter for Boston. He has worked at least 6 1/3 innings in three of his last four starts. Last time out he gave up just one earned run and one hit in a complete game victory over the Indians. Note that the Red Sox are 3-1 in Fister's last four outings. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-26-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -138 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -138 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
My selection is on Boston over Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Orioles got an early jump on the Red Sox last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Kevin Gausman will take the ball for Baltimore. He's managed to tread water with a 9-9 record this season but his ERA leaves a lot to be desired at 5.25 while he also owns a 1.62 WHIP. Note that Baltimore has won just five of his 13 road starts this season. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. The Red Sox are 6-1 when he takes the ball at home this season, where he has recorded a 3.79 ERA. While Rodriguez hasn't lasted through six innings in his last two starts, he hasn't labored all that much needing exactly 98 pitches to get through each of those outings. The Red Sox are outscoring the opposition by 2.8 runs per game with Rodriguez pitching in daytime games this season. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-20-17 | Mariners v. Rays -120 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Seattle at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Rays on Sunday as they look to avoid a series sweep at the hands of the Mariners. Yovani Gallardo will take the ball for the Mariners. To say he has struggled this season would be an understatement. Gallardo has gone 5-8 with an ERA just shy of six. He has posted just three wins to go along with a 5.14 ERA in nine road outings. Blake Snell will counter for Tampa Bay. He has quietly turned things around, posting a 3-0 team record in his last three starts. Snell has worked at least six innings in his last two starts, giving up just 11 hits, three walks and five earned runs. He struggled in his lone previous outing against the Mariners, but that came last season. I look for Snell to bounce back here while the recently lifeless Rays order gets back on track at the dish. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-17-17 | Rays -156 v. Blue Jays | 3-5 | Loss | -156 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. Blue Jays starter Chris Rowley has an excellent story and enjoyed a tremendous big league debut last weekend. I'm not sure he'll be able to follow it up with another stellar performance on Thursday against the Rays and their ace Chris Archer, however. Archer failed to work at least six innings for the first time since May 15th in his last start, but he still battled, giving up just three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Despite the fact that the Rays have produced fewer than four runs per start when Archer takes the mound in the afternoon this season, he has still managed to post a 6-3 team record thanks to a solid 3.30 ERA. Both of these clubs are technically still in the A.L. Wild Card hunt but only the Rays have a realistic shot as far as I'm concerned. Big spot here and I look for the Rays to prevail. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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08-16-17 | Giants v. Marlins -162 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over San Francisco at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price with a losing club in the Marlins on Wednesday afternoon but I actually believe the line is warranted in this case. The Giants bats came to life last night but I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. After a rough stretch, Marlins starter Jose Urena has bounced back, allowing just five earned runs in 19 1/3 innings of work over his last three outings. Note that he is 4-1 with a stellar 2.56 ERA in daytime starts this season. Matt Cain will counter for the Giants. He's a shell of the staff ace he once was for the Giants. Cain has gone winless on the road this season, 0-6 with an ERA well north of seven. He checks in 0-3 with an ERA over six in daytime starts. Sure, Cain is capable of rising to the occasion, but I'm willing to bet he doesn't. Take Miami (10*). |
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08-15-17 | Cardinals v. Red Sox -133 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over St. Louis at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Sox were in a clear letdown spot last night as they hosted the Indians in a make-up game at Fenway Park and not surprisingly, they came up empty. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they welcome the Cardinals to Boston. St. Louis will hand the ball to Mike Leake. We actually won with the Cards in Leake's most recent outing, but that wasn't thanks to his performance as he was tagged for 11 hits and four earned runs over five innings. Rick Porcello will counter for the Red Sox. He has certainly pitched better than his ugly 6-14 record indicates, particularly of late. Note that he has worked at least six innings in 22 of 24 starts this season. Last time out, Porcello needed only 82 pitches to get through six innings against the Rays, allowing only four hits and two earned runs. The Cards are a losing club on the road this season while the Red Sox, last night notwithstanding, have been terrific here at home. Take Boston (10*). |
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08-14-17 | Braves v. Rockies -144 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Atlanta at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Rockies are coming off a miserable series sweep at the hands of the Marlins in Miami over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Braves avoided a sweep in St. Louis with a victory on Sunday afternoon. I believe we'll see the Rockies bounce back in this spot as they send Chad Bettis to the hill against Julio Teheran. Teheran is completely out of sorts right now, having worked five innings or less in his last three outings, allowing a grand total of 16 earned runs over that stretch. He is 6-2 on the road this season but hasn't had much success here in Colorado, losing his last two starts here. Meanwhile, Chad Bettis will make his return to the Rockies rotation after battling testicular cancer. Keep in mind, Bettis was a 14-game winner a year ago. His story aside, I look for him to pitch well on Monday night. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-11-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees -118 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Rivalry Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox are the hotter team entering this key series in the Bronx on Friday night but I believe we'll see the Yankees take the opener. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the ball for Boston. He worked six innings last time out, but needed 117 pitches to do so, against the lowly White Sox no less, and that marked the first time in five starts that he lasted at least six innings. Meanwhile, Yankees starter Jaime Garcia got roughed up in Cleveland last time out, marking the first time in six starts that he didn't last at least six frames. That was Garcia's first start since joining the Yankees, so he'll certainly be looking to make amends in this rivalry matchup. The Yankees have played excellent baseball in the Bronx this season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have flirted with the .500 mark on the road. Take New York (10*). |
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08-09-17 | Royals v. Cardinals -136 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Wednesday. I'll give the Cardinals a considerable edge on Wednesday night as they welcome the Royals to town. Trevor Cahill will take the ball for Kansas City. To say that he has been struggling would be an understatement. Cahill hasn't lasted five innings in any of his last three trips to the hill. He's really had a tough time since coming over from the Padres, giving up seven earned runs in 8 2/3 innings of work. Things won't get any easier here. Meanwhile, Cardinals starter Mike Leake has lasted six innings or more in two of his last three starts. In the other he needed 87 pitches to get through five innings, allowing only four hits. While he checks in just 3-6 at home, he has posted a solid 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The Cards have posted a winning record at home this season while the Royals are a losing club on the road. That may be oversimplifying things, but I like the Cards in this spot. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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08-03-17 | Mets v. Rockies -155 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over New York at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mets bounced back from a walk off loss in the opener of this series to crush the Rockies last night. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot today as the Rockies have a considerable advantage on the mound with German Marquez going up against Rafael Montero. Marquez will be looking for his 10th victory of the season while Montero has posted an ERA approaching six and a WHIP close to two. Take Colorado (10*). |
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08-02-17 | Mariners v. Rangers +100 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
My selection is on Texas over Seattle at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Rangers on Wednesday night in Arlington. Ariel Miranda will take the ball for the Mariners. Miranda checks in with a 4-2 road record but has posted a less than impressive 5.77 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He's lasted six innings just once in his last four trips to the hill. Andrew Cashner has been quietly effective for the Rangers. He's worked at least six innings in four straight starts, allowing only seven earned runs on 18 hits along the way. Cashner owns a winning record to go along with a 2.30 ERA at home this season. Take Texas (10*). |
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07-31-17 | Royals -129 v. Orioles | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I look for the Royals to make quick work of Ubaldo Jimenez and the Orioles on Monday night in Baltimore. The Royals are quite simply one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and tonight will face a starter that has had a really tough time stringing together quality outings in Jimenez. He pitched well against the Rays in his last start but was absolutely rocked in his previous two. All told, he has posted an ERA just shy of seven and a 1.56 WHIP this season. Danny Duffy has been more than serviceable for the Royals, going 7-6 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He's worked into the seventh innings in three of his last four starts, allowing just one earned run twice over that stretch. The O's are coming off a positive weekend in Texas but I'm not sure they'll be so fortunate in their return home on Monday. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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07-29-17 | Angels +112 v. Blue Jays | 6-5 | Win | 112 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Angels to deal another blow to the previously surging Blue Jays confidence on Saturday afternoon. Yusmeiro Petit has performed well in relief work this season and makes his return to the rotation on Saturday. As we know, the Jays offense has been extremely hot and cold, and could head into another cold spell after last night's poor performance. Francisco Liriano will take the ball for Toronto, having failed to last more than five innings in his last three starts. His ERA sits near six and I'm not expecting a return to solid form today. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-19-17 | Rays +110 v. A's | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. I simply feel the wrong team is being favored in this matchup in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. Jacob Faria has quietly been dominant for the Rays this season, working at least six innings in each of his first seven starts this season, allowing exactly one earned run in five of those outings. Note that the Rays have posted a 6-1 record with Faria on the hill. Sonny Gray continues to audition for other clubs as the trade deadline approaches and the A's remain sellers. Gray has done well for himself lately, guiding the A's to victory in each of his last two starts and having gone 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home this season. With that being said, he's posted just a 3-5 team record in eight career outings against the Rays. Despite striking out 10 over 6 1/3 innings against them back in June, he still came up empty in a 6-5 loss. Two starts back against the Rays, Gray was tagged for seven earned runs. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-17-17 | Phillies v. Marlins -150 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Marlins are coming off a tough series sweep at the hands of the red hot Dodgers. I look for them to bounce back against the lowly Phillies on Monday, however. Philadelphia did post a victory on Sunday but it was still another losing series as the Phillies dropped two of three games in Milwaukee. Jerad Eickhoff will take the ball for Philadelphia. He pitched well in his last start, working five solid innings against the Padres. But for the most part, he's struggled this season, particularly on the road where he's winless with an ERA north of five. Tom Koehler counters for Miami. His numbers are gaudy to be sure as he has posted an 8.00 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. He did settle down in his last start, however, giving up three earned runs over five innings, needing only 90 pitches to get through that start. Koehler faced the Phillies five times last season, giving up two earned runs or less in each of those outings. Take Miami (10*). |
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07-15-17 | Blue Jays v. Tigers -138 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Toronto at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Tigers to bounce back against the Blue Jays on Saturday. Toronto took the first game in this series behind a strong return performance from Aaron Sanchez. I'm not sure they'll be so fortunate with Francisco Liriano on the mound on Saturday, however. Liriano hasn't enjoyed much success against the Tigers, posting a 2-7 team record in his last nine starts against them. Michael Fulmer has been terrific for Detroit, working at least six innings in each of his last five starts, and has posted three straight team victories. Fulmer is 5-2 at home this season with the Tigers bats coming alive for just shy of six runs per game. Take Detroit (10*). |
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07-14-17 | Dodgers -123 v. Marlins | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers don't lose very often - just four times in their last 30 games, in fact - and I don't expect them to drop this series opener in Miami on Friday night. Yes, it's possible the All-Star break will serve to mess with their positive momentum, but the same can be said for the Marlins, who were also hot entering the break. I simply feel that the Dodgers are better suited to keep it rolling on Friday night. Brandon McCarthy gets the nod for the Dodgers. He's been quietly effective this season, needing to throw over 100 pitches in only one of his 14 starts to date. He has posted a solid 3.12 ERA while allowing 12 fewer hits than innings pitched. Meanwhile, Marlins starter Dan Straily has been almost equally effective, but I believe his team winning streak ends at five starts here. Note that Straily needed 98 pitches to get through 5 2/3 innings against the Dodgers earlier this season. The Marlins won that game thanks to a 10-run outburst but I don't believe Straily will enjoy nearly that level of support here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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07-06-17 | Astros -151 v. Blue Jays | 4-7 | Loss | -151 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Jays have won back-to-back games, both of those coming at the expense of the struggling Yankees. I don't see them making it three wins in a row on Thursday night. Lance McCullers will take the ball for the Astros. He worked into the sixth inning but allowing three earned runs in a 13-4 loss to the aforementioned Yankees. That was the Astros first loss in McCullers last eight outings. Note that McCullers has posted a 7-1 record to go along with a 2.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season. Francisco Liriano will counter for the Jays. He's had a tough time here in the 2017 season, going 4-4 with an ERA approaching six. He faced the Astros once last season, giving up five earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in a 5-3 loss. The Jays are 5-2 in his seven home starts this season but dropped his most recent in blowout fashion against the Red Sox. Take Houston (10*). |
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07-05-17 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -142 | 7-6 | Loss | -142 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Jays got back at the Yankees behind a strong performance from J.A. Happ yesterday afternoon. I'm not sure Marco Estrada will be so fortunate to enjoy that type of success on Wednesday, however. Estrada continues to labor through the 2017 campaign, having gone 4-6 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. There have been no signs of the veteran right-hander turning things around, and he certainly won't find the going easy against the Yankees. Michael Pineda has traditionally pitched well against the Jays but he struggled in his first outing against them this season. Look for him to bounce back on Wednesday. Pineda was sharp last time out, giving up only two earned runs over six innings in a 13-4 road win over the best team in the American League, the Houston Astros. He checks in 6-2 with a sub-3.00 ERA at home this season. Take New York (10*). |
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07-04-17 | Orioles v. Brewers -141 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Baltimore at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez was terrific in his most recent outing against the Blue Jays, although Toronto didn't do itself any favors in that contest. For the most part, Jimenez has been awful this season. I don't see him following up that strong performance with another gem on Tuesday. Keep in mind, the O's have been one of baseball's worst road teams this season. Jimmy Nelson will take the ball for the Brewers. He's been quietly consistent this season, going 6-4 with a 3.43 ERA. Here at home, Nelson has posted a 2.64 ERA. Milwaukee took the opener of this series in blowout fashion and I look for more of the same on Tuesday afternoon. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-04-17 | Mets v. Nationals -158 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 11:05 am et on Tuesday. We're dealing with a fairly lofty price to back the Nationals in this matchup, but I believe the price could be even higher. Seth Lugo will take the ball for the Mets. He was on the right side of a win in Miami last time out, working six solid innings. He's posted a perfect 3-0 road record this season, but this will be his toughest test to date and he has been fortunate to remain undefeated in those three road outings. Joe Ross will counter for the Nationals. He was a hard luck loser despite working into the seventh innings and needing only 92 pitches last time out. Ross is 3-1 at home this season with the Nats' outscoring the opposition by seven runs per contest. Take Washington (10*). |
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07-01-17 | Red Sox -160 v. Blue Jays | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. Not a difficult decision to back the Red Sox against the reeling Jays on Saturday afternoon. Chris Sale will take the ball for the Red Sox and should have little trouble managing a struggling Jays lineup. Toronto has had a miserable time against A.L. East foes and nothing changes on Saturday. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-29-17 | Mets v. Marlins -130 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami over New York at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Marlins as they wrap up their series with the Mets on Thursday night in Miami. Seth Lugo will take the ball for the Mets, making his third start of the season after starting the campaign on the D.L. After pitching well in his season debut, Lugo has struggled a bit in his last two outings, giving up 14 hits, five walks and seven earned runs over 12 1/3 innings of work. Lugo was buoyed by an 11-run outburst from his offense last time out, but I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate here. Jose Urena will counter for the Marlins. He's been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season, going 6-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Over his last three trips to the hill he has recorded a 1.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Marlins are outscoring the opposition by two runs per contest with Urena on the mound this season. Take Miami (10*). |
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06-28-17 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -136 | 4-3 | Loss | -136 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over St. Louis at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. |
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06-27-17 | Cubs v. Nationals -167 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the chalk to back the Nationals on Tuesday night in Washington. Jake Arrieta will take the ball for the Cubs. He pitched well last time out, giving up just one earned run over seven innings but starts like that have been few and far between this season. In his two starts prior he failed to last five innings against the Rockies and Pirates. Arrieta will obviously face a tough challenge again here against the Nats'. Max Scherzer counters for Washington. He came away empty-handed despite tossing eight shutout innings against the Marlins last time out. Scherzer has now reached double-digit strikeouts in six consecutive starts. The Nats' are an even 3-3 in Scherzer's six home starts so far this season but it has been no fault of his as he's posted a 2.85 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. That's not to mention his 59:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Take Washington (10*). |
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06-26-17 | Yankees -147 v. White Sox | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The White Sox are reeling right now and although the Yankees had a tough weekend I do expect them to bounce back in the Windy City on Monday night. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He pitched well in a victory over the Angels last time out and has worked into the sixth innings or beyond in four consecutive starts. Note that the Yankees have won three of those four games. David Holmberg will counter for Chicago. He has yet to last beyond the fifth inning in a start this season. He has pitched well, particularly at home, where the Sox have won his two previous starts. However, I expect the Yankees order to wear him out on Monday night. Take New York (10*). |
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06-22-17 | Cubs -141 v. Marlins | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Cubs as they aim to bounce back from a home loss to the Padres on Wednesday. They should be in good hands with Jake Arrieta taking the mound. I say that despite the fact that he has struggled in his last two outings and hasn't exactly lived up to expectations this season. I'm confident he'll be up for this matchup and give the Cubs at least six solid innings. Jeff Locke will counter for Miami. He's had a really tough time working deep into ball games. In fact, he has yet to last six innings this season. Locke is winless in four starts this month. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-21-17 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +103 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Rangers on Wednesday night as I believe the case can be made for them being favored in this matchup. Toronto will hand the ball to Joe Biagini. After being snake-bitten during a three-game slide on the mound, he turned in an awful performance last time out, allowing six earned runs on eight hits in just one inning against the White Sox. Things won't get much easier here in Arlington. Meanwhile, Tyson Ross gets his second start of the season for the Rangers after returning from injury. Ross was effective in his season debut, giving up just two hits and two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work against the Mariners. Texas won that game by a 10-4 score. That was an important favorable result as Ross hadn't tasted victory in the bigs since way back in August of 2015. Take Texas (10*). |
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06-21-17 | Reds v. Rays -136 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Cincinnati at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Rays at Tropicana Field on Wednesday afternoon. Tim Adleman will take the ball for the Reds. He has yet to really learn to win on the road, having posted just one victory in five starts away from home this season. There Adleman has posted a 4.62 ERA. That number jumps to 5.74 to go along with a 1.50 WHIP in daytime outings. Erasmo Ramirez will counter for Tampa Bay. He's been getting roughed up lately, particularly in his last trip to the hill as he was tagged for eight earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work. I do expect to see him bounce back and toss 5-6 solid innings on Wednesday. Note that three of Ramirez's last four starts came on the road. He has posted a perfect 4-0 team record in four home starts this season. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-19-17 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +116 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My selection is on Texas over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Monday. These teams experienced much different fates in yesterday’s ball game with the Jays salvaging the finale of their three-game set with the White Sox and the Rangers falling against the Mariners. Toronto has won just two of its last five games overall and with tonight’s starter Marco Estrada struggling I believe they’ll be in tough again here in Arlington. Estrada has been tagged for 28 hits and 17 earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 12 2/3 innings of work. The Rangers will hand the ball to Austin Bibens-Dirkx. The man with one of the most unique names in baseball has served as a good stop-gap for the Rangers this season and I expect him to do the same here tonight. Bibens-Dirkx worked seven solid innings in Washington last week, giving up just three hits and one earned run. I look for 5-6 good innings from him on Monday as the Rangers offense picks back up and delivers another victory. Take Texas (10*). |
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06-17-17 | Red Sox +105 v. Astros | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Houston at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the Red Sox on Saturday night as they hand the ball to Rick Porcello against David Paulino and the Astros. Porcello’s overall numbers this season aren’t good. He’s 3-8 with an ERA approaching five and a WHIP north of 1.50. While he has been getting hit hard, he’s also managed to stick around in virtually every start he’s made, particularly of late. You know what you’re going to get with Porcello, 6-7 innings every time he takes the hill. I’m confident he’ll be up and focused for this showdown with the first place Astros. Paulino has made three starts for the Astros this season and he’s been hit fairly hard each time out, allowing 19 hits in 13 2/3 innings of work. Over that stretch he’s been tagged for 10 earned runs. Things obviously won’t get any easier against a loaded Red Sox lineup. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-16-17 | Red Sox v. Astros -122 | 2-1 | Loss | -122 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the A.L.-leading Astros on Friday night as they welcome the Red Sox to Minute Maid Park. Drew Pomeranz will take the ball for Boston. He certainly doesn't bring solid form to the table, having allowed 14 hits and six earned runs over 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts. He's had a difficult time working deep into ball games this season, and things aren't likely to get much easier against the Astros. Mike Fiers will start for Houston. It's easy to forget that he posted a solid 11-8 record with the Astros last season. Fiers is off to a fine start this season as well, having gone 4-2 despite an ERA north of four. He brings excellent form having allowed two earned runs or less in three consecutive outings. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-12-17 | Cubs +117 v. Mets | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I believe the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this matchup on Monday night. John Lackey will take the ball for the Cubs. He's had a bit of a tough go so far this season but has shown some positive signs over his last two outings, allowing only 11 hits while posting a 12:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 innings of work. Jacob DeGrom will counter for the Mets. While he owns a winning record this season at 4-3, he hasn't pitched well by any means. Over his last two starts, DeGrom has been tagged for 15 earned runs in only eight innings of work. He'll be in tough against a loaded Cubs lineup on Monday night. Take Chicago (10*). |
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06-11-17 | Marlins v. Pirates -133 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Miami at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Pirates on Sunday afternoon as they try to end their four-game series with the Marlins on a high note. Jeff Locke will take the ball for the Marlins. He pitched reasonably well in his season debut but struggled against the Cubs last time out. I look for him to struggle again in this matchup. Note that the Marlins have dropped Locke's last four trips to the hill. Pittsburgh will counter with its best starter so far this season in Ivan Nova. He's worked at least six innings in all 12 of his starts this season. The Pirates have dropped his last two starts. They've yet to drop three consecutive Nova starts this season. Note that Nova tossed a complete game shutout against the Marlins in Miami earlier this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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06-09-17 | Marlins v. Pirates -116 | 12-7 | Loss | -116 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Miami at 7:05 pm et on Friday. After laboring through a number of starts to start the season, we have seen Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow settled own a bit lately. He hasn't had the results to show for it, but I look for him to turn in a strong performance against the Marlins on Friday night, and believe the Buccos are undervalued in this spot. Vance Worley will counter for the Marlins, earning his fourth start of the season. He hasn't been good, yet to last beyond the fifth inning in a start. Worley's ERA sits well north of six despite his 2.4-1 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio. I'm confident we'll see the Pirates bats get to him on Friday night. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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06-08-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees -116 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the Yankees in the finale of this three-game series with the rival Red Sox on Thursday night. David Price will get his third start of the season for Boston. After struggling through his debut against the White Sox a couple of weeks ago, he bounced back with a fantastic outing in Baltimore. The real David Price (at this stage of his career) probably lies in between those two efforts. Here, I look for him to run into some trouble against what is obviously a formidable Yankees lineup. New York will hand the ball to Michael Pineda. He labored through five innings against the Jays last time out, allowing 10 hits and five earned runs. Prior to that, he had worked at least six innings in five consecutive starts and I expect him to respond favorably in this spot. Pineda has gone 6-3 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP not to mention a 67:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio so far this season. Take New York (10*). |
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06-08-17 | Marlins v. Pirates -133 | 7-1 | Loss | -133 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Miami at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the Pirates on Thursday night as they open a four game set with the Marlins at PNC Park. Edinson Volquez will get his first start since tossing an improbable no-hitter against the D’Backs this past Saturday. Keep in mind, Volquez has gone just 2-7 with an ERA approaching four and a 1.38 WHIP this season. While I’m not saying his no-no was a fluke, I don’t expect him to reach those heights again on Thursday. Pirates starter Gerrit Cole has had a tough time over his last three outings, even though we did cash with the Buccos with him on the hill two starts back against the Mets. I’m confident we’ll see him step up and end his string of rocky performances here. Despite his recent struggles, Cole has still posted a respectable 1.26 WHIP and a 61:16 strikeout-to-wal k ratio this season. He has given up one earned run or less in three of his last four home starts. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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06-06-17 | Phillies v. Braves -123 | 3-1 | Loss | -123 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have shown signs of turning things around recently but I look for the Braves to get the better of the Phillies on Tuesday night in Atlanta. Aaron Nola will take the ball for Philadelphia. He has struggled for the most part this season, going 2-3 with an ERA north of five to go along with a 1.44 WHIP. The Phils have been outscored by an average margin of 2.5 runs per game in his four road starts. Braves starter Jaime Garcia owns an identical 2-3 record to that of Nola, however he has pitched much better, recording a 3.18 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Here at home, Garcia has been at his best, posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Garcia tossed six solid innings in his lone previous start against Philadelphia this season but the Braves fell short by a 4-3 score. Expect a different story to unfold this time around. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-04-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -118 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over New York at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Jays yesterday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again on Sunday. Luis Severino will take the ball for the Yankees. He needed 100 pitches to get through 6 1/3 innings against the Orioles last time out. He's a perfect 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA on the road this season but it's not as if he's invincible. The Yanks have dropped two of his five road outings. Marcus Stroman will counter for Toronto. He hasn't been at his best lately, lasting six innings just once in his last three trips to the hill. With that being said, he is 6-2 overall with a 3.28 ERA and has proven to be a big game pitcher throughout his career. I'm confident he'll keep the Jays in the game for 5-6 innings at the very least, and their bats should take care of the rest. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-03-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -123 | 7-0 | Loss | -123 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Jays to deliver a second consecutive win over the rival Yankees on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He needed 100 pitches to get through 4 1/3 innings in his most recent start, an eventual loss to the Orioles. Note that the Yanks have now dropped each of his last four starts. Meanwhile, Jays starter Joe Biagini came out on the wrong end of a 3-1 decision against the Rangers last weekend (we won with Texas in that game) but there's no denying he pitched well. Biagini needed only 95 pitches to get through six innings in that outing. While that was his longest outing of the season, he was on fairly strict pitch counts in his previous starts. I look for the Jays to allow him to stretch it out on Saturday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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06-02-17 | Braves v. Reds -108 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. While the pitching matchup may not seem to be playing the Reds favor in this one, I believe it will play out precisely that way on the field. Mike Foltynewicz will take the ball for the Braves. He has been extremely hittable over his last five starts, giving up 36 hits in 25 innings of work. Last time out, he lasted only four innings in San Francisco. The Reds will turn to veteran Bronson Arroyo. His overall numbers are pretty poor this season but I'm confident he can at least keep his team in the game for five or six innings on Friday night. Arroyo did pitch reasonably well in his last start, giving up only three earned runs over five innings in a tough 4-3 loss to the Phillies. Note that the Reds are 3-1 in Arroyo's last four outings at home. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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05-30-17 | Cubs -135 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -135 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
My selection is on Chicago over San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Enough is enough, I look for the Cubs to finally get back on the winning side of the ledger on Tuesday night in San Diego. Eddie Butler will take the ball for the reeling Cubbies. Butler stepped up and delivered an outstanding performance in his first road start of the season, allowing only two hits over six shutout innings in a 3-2 win in St. Louis earlier this month. He's continued to pitch well, last time out needing only 69 pitches to get through five innings in a 5-1 home win over the Giants. Butler has recorded a 1.93 ERA in 14 innings of work this season. Dinelson Lamet will counter for the Padres. He'll be making just his second big league start. In his debut he needed 91 pitches to get through five innings in an eventual 4-3 win over the Mets. He struck out eight in that outing. I'm just not sure that he can match that performance against what will be a highly-motivated Cubs squad here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-29-17 | Diamondbacks +100 v. Pirates | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We've had some success backing the Pirates lately but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Buccos as they host the D'Backs on Monday. Randall Delgado will take the ball for Arizona. He has made just one start this season, that coming last week at home against the White Sox. Delgado worked only four innings in that game but needed only 61 pitches to get through in an eventual 8-6 win. Note that Delgado is 14-6 since the start of the 2015 season. Trevor Williams will counter for Pittsburgh. He has gone 2-3 with a 5.93 ERA so far this season. Williams has yet to last six innings in any of his four starts. He did hold the D'Backs in check in Arizona earlier this month but I don't expect him to be so fortunate this time around. Take Arizona (10*). |
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05-28-17 | Reds -121 v. Phillies | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Philadelphia at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. Phillies starter Zach Eflin is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball right now and I don't see him bouncing back against the Reds on Sunday afternoon. Eflin has allowed a ridiculous 21 hits and 15 earned runs over just 10 innings in his last two starts. Since guiding the Phillies to victory in his first two starts this season, he's now dropped five in a row. Veteran Scott Feldman gets the nod for the Reds. He has held his own so far this season, posting a 3.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He's coming off a start in which he gave up just one earned run over six innings in a 5-1 win over the Indians. The Reds are quite simply the better team right now and I'll back them at a reasonable price here. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates -127 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Pirates couldn't keep the positive momentum building last night as they fell by an 8-1 score in the series opener. I look for them to respond on Saturday, however. Mets starter Zack Wheeler has posted some fairly pedestrian numbers this season, going 3-2 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He hasn't worked beyond the sixth inning in any of his last four trips to the hill. Gerrit Cole will counter for the Pirates. He's coming off his worst outing of the season, falling to 2-5 on the campaign. He has pitched better than his record indicates, however, as he has posted a 3.36 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The last time Cole faced the Mets, he tossed 8 1/3 innings of shutout ball while striking out 10 back in 2015. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-26-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers -134 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Chicago at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Cubs are coming off an encouraging series win over the Giants at home, but I look for them to run into some trouble in Friday's series opener at Chavez Ravine. Jake Arrieta has been anything but his usual dominant self this season. While he has posted a winning 5-3 record, his ERA stands at 4.80. In road starts, he has recorded an inflated 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. While Arrieta did toss six shutout innings last time out, he needed 111 pitches to get through those six innings. Alex Wood will counter for the Dodgers. He hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last three starts, spanning 18 1/3 innings of work. Wood didn't pitch well against the Cubs earlier this season, lasting less than four innings in an eventual 3-2 loss. I do expect to see him make amends here, however. The Cubs are barely better than a .500 club on the road, having gone 11-10 this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-25-17 | Pirates -109 v. Braves | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Atlanta at 12:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Pirates as they wrap up their series with the Braves in Atlanta on Thursday afternoon. Ivan Nova will take the ball for the Buccos. His hot start has proven to be no fluke. Nova has gone 4-3 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through his first nine starts. Save for one rough outing in Cincinnati, he's been rock solid. The same can't be said for Braves veteran starter Bartolo Colon. He has gone 2-4 with an ERA well north of six and a 1.48 WHIP. Colon allowed just one earned run over 4 1/3 innings against Washington last time out but didn't pitch particularly well, giving up seven hits along the way. He matched a season high with six strikeouts in that game, but I don't see him missing as many bats here. The Braves are hot but I believe the Pirates are the better team and that the standings will bear it out in the long run. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-24-17 | Blue Jays v. Brewers +107 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Toronto at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. I simply feel that the wrong team is being favored at open. Yes, the Jays will hand the ball to their ace, Marcus Stroman, but he has actually given up his share of hits lately, even if the opposition hasn't cashed in many runs. Over his last 20 2/3 innings of work, Stroman has been tagged for 27 hits and seven earned runs. The Jays have given him plenty of run support lately, but that hasn't always been the case, and this version of the Jays lineup can go silent in a hurry. Matt Garza will counter for Milwaukee. He's enjoyed a resurgence of sorts this season, going 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA. The Brewers have gone 4-1 in Garza's five outings thus far. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-23-17 | Indians -158 v. Reds | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Reds got the better of the Indians in the opener of this series last night, stopping Cleveland’s three-game winning streak. I look for the Tribe to bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco, who will be looking to rebound from a rocky start of his own. Carrasco has been at his best on the road this season and after getting hit hard by the Rays at home last time out, I’m confident he’ll respond here. Meanwhile, the Reds will turn to Amir Garrett who is fortunate to have posted a .500 record despite his 5.18 ERA. Since racking up 12 strikeouts against the Orioles back on April 19th, Garrett has flirted with disaster in two starts here at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, issuing seven walks compared to just six K’s in his last two home outings. Look for the Indians to get to him on Tuesday night. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-20-17 | Nationals -186 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -186 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Atlanta at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I’ll back the Nats with Max Scherzer on the hill in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon. Scherzer has been locked in on the road this season, including a stellar outing right here in Atlanta back in April. While he wasn’t at his absolute best last time out against Philadelphia, Scherzer still managed to miss a lot of bats, striking out eight while avoiding any walks over six innings. He’s worked at least six innings in all eight of his outings this season. Bartolo Colon will counter for the Braves. In stark contrast to Scherzer, Colon has not surprisingly struggled to work deep into ball games, lasting five innings of less in three of his last four trips to the hill. He was effective last time out against Toronto but prior to that had been tagged for 36 hits and 23 earned runs over his previous four outings. Washington hasn’t exactly been rolling along lately but should get a reprieve in Atlanta on Saturday. Take Washington (10*). |
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05-18-17 | Orioles -113 v. Tigers | 5-6 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Orioles have been a little uneven of late, but they're still one of the most complete teams in the American League, as evidenced by their stellar overall record. I like their chances of finding the win column again on Thursday afternoon as they hand the ball to Dylan Bundy. The unheralded young right-hander continues to pitch well, solidifying his role in the O's starting rotation. Bundy checks in 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season. Baltimore is just 2-2 in his four road starts, but I believe he's catching the Tigers at the right time here. Detroit will counter with Jordan Zimmermann, who is clearly on the downside of his career. In fact, I'm not sure how many more opportunities we'll get to fade Zimmermann in the Tigers rotation. The veteran right-hander has managed to post a 3-2 record this season, but his ERA sits well north of six while his WHIP is approaching two at 1.66. Zimmermann owns a 2-5 team record in seven career outings against Baltimore. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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05-17-17 | Astros -156 v. Marlins | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. Astros starter Lance McCullers has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball so far this season and he comes into this start on a serious roll having tossed 13 innings of six-hit shutout ball over his last two trips to the hill. The Astros are an impressive 6-2 in McCullers eight starts this season and he has recorded a stellar 2.98 ERA. Jose Urena will counter for the Marlins. He's pitched well in two starts since re-joining the rotation, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits over 12 innings of work. He didn't miss a lot of bats, but the Mets gave him no challenge in his first start in Queens. He followed that up by giving up just two runs against the Braves last time out. He'll face a much tougher challenge against one of baseball's best offenses on Wednesday. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-15-17 | Braves v. Blue Jays -125 | 10-6 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Atlanta at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Blue Jays are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and I like them to keep it rolling as they welcome the Braves to town on Monday night. Atlanta will turn to Bartolo Colon who is clearly on the downside of his long, storied career. Colon has been getting crushed repeatedly and he has to be getting close to the end of the line so we'll take advantage of fading him again here. Meanwhile, the reason we're dealing with the relatively low line here is the fact that the Jays will give Mike Bolsinger his second start of the season. He was only alright in his debut with the club and I'm not expecting him to work wonders here. However, I do believe he can do enough to keep his team in the game before turning it over to an improving bullpen. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-14-17 | Houston Astros - Game #1 v. New York Yankees - Game #1 -132 | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Houston at 2:05 pm et on Sunday. |
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05-09-17 | Indians -160 v. Blue Jays | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Jays got the jump on the Indians last night but I don't expect them to enjoy as much success against Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. Carrasco has gone 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.82 WHIP so far this season but he's done it with little fanfare. Note that Carrasco has gone a flawless 3-0 with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP on the road. Meanwhile, Mike Bolsinger will be making his first start for the Jays this season, only out of necessity. Bolsinger is by no means a winner at this level, having posted a career 8-16 mark in the bigs with an ERA approaching five and a WHIP of 1.45. Look for the Indians bats to come alive in this one as the Tribe pick up a win north of the border. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-08-17 | Indians +105 v. Blue Jays | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I can understand the logic behind installing the Jays as a short favorite in this one but that doesn't mean I agree with it. Indians starter Trevor Bauer has struggled as a whole so far this season but he had pitched reasonably well for two outings prior to the wheels coming off in his last start. I do expect to see him bounce back against a still-slumbering Jays offense on Monday night. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for Toronto. He's been nothing better than average so far this season and the Jays check in 1-4 in his last five trips to the hill. The Indians have had the Jays number recently and I don't see anything changing in Monday's series-opener in Toronto. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-06-17 | Rangers +105 v. Mariners | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Rangers in late action on Saturday as they hand the ball to Martin Perez against Chase De Jong of the Mariners. After a rough start in Oakland, Perez has settled back in over his last two outings. He came out on the wrong end of a 2-1 decision in Seattle earlier this season but did pitch well in that one and should be highly motivated to pick up a 'W' this time around. Of course, for that to happen he's going to need some run support. I think he gets it as the Rangers should be able to get to De Jong, who has allowed nine earned runs in just 7 1/3 innings this season. The Mariners have high hopes for De Jong and while I do expect him to show some improvement in this start, I still think it's only a matter of time before the Rangers bats chase him from this ball game. Take Texas (10*). |
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04-30-17 | Cubs +101 v. Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cubs in this matchup on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Chicago in Sunday night's rubber match. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Cubs. I still see him as an undervalued commodity, noting that he has gone 2-1 through four starts this season, with the Cubs winning three of those games. Note that Hendricks tossed six shutout innings in Pittsburgh earlier this week. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. He also tossed six shutout innings in his last start, but has just one win to show for three outings this season. He's posted a solid 3.18 ERA so far, but we're dealing with a very small sample size, and I'm confident that number will end up much closer to four. Both teams have gotten off to winning starts this season, but neither has been setting the diamond on fire. I'll give the edge to the Cubs in this spot. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-30-17 | Rays -107 v. Blue Jays | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Rays in the rubber match of this series on Sunday afternoon. Chris Archer will get the nod for Tampa Bay. He struggled mightily in his last start in Baltimore but I fully expect him to bounce back here. Note that the Rays are 3-1 in his last four outings against the Jays, including a 12-2 victory here in Toronto. Aaron Sanchez will make his return to the Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon. While he's pitched well in his career against Tampa Bay, he did drop his lone previous outing against the Rays in Toronto. The Jays are winless in Sanchez's two previous trips to the hill this season. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-29-17 | Cubs -117 v. Red Sox | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Boston at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Cubs behind John Lackey on Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park. Lackey checks in 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA this season but he's given up fewer hits than innings pitched while also posting a solid 26:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's worked at least seven innings in five of his last six outings against the Red Sox, his former club. Steven Wright will counter for Boston. He's been ripped so far this season, allowing 33 hits in 17 2/3 innings of work. Two starts back he limited the Rays to only one earned run in six innings but other than that he's been a disaster. This will be his first career start against the Cubs but that only serves as an advantage for the first time through the order. I look for the Cubs to ultimately get to him while Lackey does enough to keep the Sox powerful, but slumbering bats in check. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-28-17 | Rays +138 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 138 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Jays are a mess right now. Just when it looked like they may have found a spark with that thrilling extra innings victory in St. Louis on Tuesday, they follow up a rain-out on Wednesday with an ugly double-header sweep at the hands of the Cards on Thursday. They led St. Louis 4-0 late in the opener of that double dip but ultimately fell by an 8-4 score in extras. While they will hand the ball to Marcus Stroman on Friday night, I don't expect things to get any easier against the Rays. Blake Snell will get the nod for Tampa Bay. He's had an up and down start to the campaign but has at least kept his team in games every time he has taken the ball. That's all he'll be asked to do again on Friday night. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-25-17 | Cubs -125 v. Pirates | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Cubs at PNC Park on Tuesday night. Chicago is rolling along right now, having dropped just one of its last six games. The Cubs will hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks on Tuesday. He's had a tough time regaining the form that saw him go 16-8 with a 2.12 ERA last season, but we're still dealing with a very small sample size. I'm confident we'll see him pitch well on Tuesday. Gerrit Cole will counter for the Pirates. He certainly hasn't always been lights out against the Cubs in his career, particularly here at home where Pittsburgh has dropped his last two outings against them. Cole was on the hill for a 4-2 win at Wrigley Field earlier this month, but he faces a hotter hitting club this time around. The Cubs busted out at the dish last night, but I still believe there's more where that came from. Take Chicago (10*). |
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