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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-24-20 | Angels v. A's -130 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 86 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Andrew Heaney gets the nod for the Angels. He's your prototypical middle of the road big league starter. If anything he's regressed since turning in a somewhat impressive rookie campaign back in 2015. He made 18 starts last season and finished with an ERA just a shade under five at 4.91. His strikeouts per nine innings were up, but so were his walks. Here, he faces an A's club that has to like the setup of this truncated MLB season, where anything can and probably will happen. Heaney went up against the A's twice last season, pitching well against them late in the year after an awful performance against them in June. Frankie Montas has quietly settled in over the last two seasons, posting a 3.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP two years ago before a tremendous 16-start run last year, recording a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings were up significantly over the year previous while his walks were slightly down. Everything points to Montas continuing his upswing here in a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The Angels always get some love from bettors thanks to the presence of Mike Trout in the order but outside of his all-world talent, there's not a lot to get excited about. I like the short price being offered with an optimistic A's club here in the opener. Take Oakland (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Rangers v. White Sox -127 | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Texas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The White Sox are surging right now and I believe they're being undervalued considerably on Saturday night against Texas. Kolby Allard will take the ball for the Rangers. This will be his fourth consecutive start and he has labored through his first three, giving up 14 hits and 11 earned runs while walking eight in 15 innings of work. He has yet to work a full six innings. Veteran Ivan Nova will counter for Chicago. He has recorded wins in each of his last three starts. Nova's ERA sat around six at the end of June but he has steadily improved since, with that number now at 4.47. You would have to go back seven starts to find the last time he gave up more than two earned runs in an outing. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-26-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Brewers didn't exactly take care of business to open this homestand, dropping two of three games against the Reds. They did, however, salvage the finale of that series and I look for them to notch another victory on Friday night against the Cubs. Chicago travels from San Francisco, where it dropped two of three games as well. The Cubs are a miserable 19-29 on the road this season. Kyle Hendricks is a losing pitcher on a winning team, having gone 7-8 with a 3.41 ERA this season. He's been at his worst on the road where he's 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Note that Chicago is giving Hendricks just north of two runs per game when he takes the ball on the road this season. Gio Gonzalez will counter for Milwaukee. He returned from a 'dead arm' to throw four somewhat effective innings against Arizona last time out. In 10 1/3 innings pitched at Miller Park this season he has recorded a terrific 0.87 WHIP. Also note that Gonzalez turned in one of his best outings of the season against the Cubs, pitching 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball back in May. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-24-19 | Reds v. Brewers -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers have dropped the first two games of this series, with their pitching really letting them down, allowing 20 runs in those two losses. I believe the price is reasonable to back the Brewers to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Jhoulys Chacin started the season a perfect 2-0 but has gone a miserable 1-10 since. He got rocked in his last start in Arizona but has actually pitched well here at home recently, allowing just two earned runs over his last two starts at Miller Park, covering a span of 10 innings. Lucas Sims will counter for the Reds. He has posted solid numbers this season but we're talking about a very small sample size as he has worked just 9 2/3 innings. The Brewers do continue to perform well offensively, having plated 54 runs over their last eight games, scoring at least five runs in each of those contests. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-24-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. Motivation will be high for the Rays to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Red Sox at home on Wednesday afternoon. I like their chances to do just that with Charlie Morton on the hill. Morton has quietly put together an 11-3 record and ever since his ERA dipped below 3.00 back on April 27th against these same Red Sox, it has never surpassed that number again, currently standing at 2.61. Red Sox starter David Price has been solid as well, although his numbers don't match those of Morton. I do get the sense that Price is going through a bit of a lull, failing to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts. Last time out he gave up six earned runs in a loss in Baltimore. The Rays entered this game with a two-game edge over the Red Sox but that has disappeared. Look for them to salvage the final game of the series on Wednesday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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07-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers -132 | 14-6 | Loss | -132 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're laying a reasonable number with the Brewers here, largely due to the solid numbers Tanner Roark has posted for the Reds this season. With that being said, we faded Roark in his last start and were rewarded with a 7-4 Cardinals win, even though he did hold his own for five innings before the bullpen coughed it up. Roark has now been tagged for at least one home run in each of his last five starts, giving up a grand total of nine dingers over that stretch. Kyle Davies will counter for Milwaukee. He brings excellent form to the table, having allowed just two earned runs on 17 hits over 23 1/3 innings in his last four starts. Davies didn't fare well the last time he faced the Reds back in May but did keep them at bay in his first start against them, and the Brew Crew have still managed to win both of this starts versus Cincinnati this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-22-19 | Marlins v. White Sox -110 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The White Sox aren't being given much respect by the oddsmakers here and it's largely due to the presence of Ivan Nova on the mound. He has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. With that being said, despite his ERA north of seven, the Sox have still managed to go an even 4-4 when he takes the ball at home this season. It's also worth noting that Nova has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last nine outings. Trevor Richards is an 11-game loser for the Marlins and you would have to go back five starts to find the last time he worked into the sixth inning. The Marlins last victory with Richards on the hill came way back on June 2nd in San Diego. Chicago did lose yesterday's series finale against the Rays, but still managed to win that series. Meanwhile, the Marlins have to travel all the way from Los Angeles where they were swept by the Dodgers. Take Chicago (10*). |
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07-22-19 | Yankees v. Twins +112 | 6-8 | Win | 112 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over New York at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Twins as they look to build off the momentum from yesterday's win, which salvaged a four-game split against the A's. CC Sabathia will take the ball for the Yankees. He has shown a pretty strong home-road dichotomy, posting an ERA well north of five on the road. The Twins are one of the best teams in baseball and can obviously score with anyone, even the Yankees. Fresh off yesterday's eight-run outburst I do look for them to get to Sabathia here. Martin Perez has cooled somewhat following his red hot start to the season but he checks in having worked at least six innings in three straight starts and will be looking to earn his ninth victory of the season. It's worth noting that the Twins actually lead the league in slugging, OPS and home runs and sit second in team batting average. The Yankees rank no higher than fourth in any of those categories. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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07-19-19 | Marlins +255 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I can't ignore the value being offered with the underdog Marlins here as they catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot. While Miami is 22 games under .500 on the season, it has actually gone a respectable 26-27 over its last 53 games. The Marlins are coming off a series with over the Padres while the Dodgers return home after a roller-coaster series in Philadelphia that saw a total of 57 runs scored. Marlins starter Zac Gallen has had an up and down start to his big league career but comes in off five days' rest and has fared alright in two previous road starts, allowing three earned runs while posting an 8:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over seven innings of work (the Marlins split those two games winning in St. Louis but losing in Washington). Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter for Los Angeles. He has obviously been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and checks in sporting a perfect 9-0 team record here at Dodger Stadium. Ryu owns a 2-1 team record in three career starts against the Marlins, however he hasn't faced them since 2017 and prior to that his other two outings against them came way back in 2013. I simply feel the Dodgers could be in for a bit of a letdown off back-to-back series' three time zones away in Boston and Philadelphia and the price doesn't properly reflect probability in this particular situation. Take Miami (10*). |
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07-19-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +120 | 7-10 | Win | 120 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Milwaukee at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Brewers took the opening game of this series last night, cooling off the D'Backs previously red hot bats in the process. I do look for Arizona to bounce back on Friday, however, as they look to tee off on Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin. The Brewers have won just five times in 17 games with Chacin on the hill this season. He has posted a 6.38 ERA on the road and to make matters worse, the Brew Crew have given him just over two runs per start to work with on the highway. D'Backs starter Taylor Clarke hasn't impressed by any means. In fact, he also owns an ERA north of six at home. With that being said, Arizona has managed to go just one game under .500 in his nine starts this season and the Snakes are giving him an incredible seven runs of support to work with per start. Milwaukee has won three games in a row but remains five games under .500 on the road this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
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07-18-19 | A's +127 v. Twins | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Despite his 9-3 record and 3.61 ERA bettors aren't buying into A's journeyman starter Mike Fiers. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last month or so, allowing a grand total of four earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 33 innings of work. His road numbers aren't great but he certainly hasn't struggled away from home recently, working at least six innings and allowing three earned runs or less in each of his last four road outings. In his last start here in Minnesota, the A's won by a 6-2 score last August. Kyle Gibson will counter for the Twins. He's had an up and down season and checks in on a downward trend, having allowed 13 earned runs on 24 hits over his last five starts, covering a span of just 22 innings. The A's can obviously slug with the best of them and I'm confident they'll be able to get to Gibson tonight. This is a classic case of two clubs heading in opposite directions and I look for the A's to stay red hot, at least in the opener of this series. Take Oakland (10*). |
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07-18-19 | Cardinals +113 v. Reds | 7-4 | Win | 113 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I simply feel the wrong team is favored in this matchup as the Cardinals look to build off a series win over the Pirates when they head to Cincinnati to face the Reds. Dakota Hudson will take the ball for St. Louis. He has quietly put together an 8-4 record this season with the Cardinals winning nine of his last 10 starts overall. He has worked at least six innings in nine of his last 11 trips to the hill. Tanner Roark will counter for the Reds. They've won just three of his nine home starts this season. Most concerning is the fact that Roark has allowed eight home runs in his last four outings, even if his most recent came at Coors Field. Both pitchers have fared well against tonight's opponent so not much to look at from that standpoint. I simply feel that the Cardinals have a little more upside and are being undervalued due to their losing road record this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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07-17-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -120 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Pittsburgh at 1:15 pm et on Wednesday. I like the bounce back spot for the Cardinals this afternoon as they send Daniel Ponce de Leon to the hill against Chris Archer. Ponce de Leon has worked 17 2/3 innings at home this season, posting a sparkling 1.02 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. He was a hard luck loser last time out as he lasted into the seventh inning giving up just one earned run on three hits but the Cards fell by a 4-2 score against the D'Backs. Pirates starter Chris Archer has pitched a little better lately but as a whole has been a train wreck on the road this season where he is winless in seven starts, posting an ERA well north of seven. The Pirates have won just four of his 10 daytime starts this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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07-02-19 | Giants v. Padres -151 | 10-4 | Loss | -151 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Look for the Padres to bounce back from last night's drubbing at the hands of the Giants as they own a considerable advantage on the mound with Matt Strahm going against Tyler Beede. Beede owns just one victory and an ERA north of six and that ERA goes above seven away from home. While the Padres have been inconsistent at the plate, they do have enough potent bats to get to the Giants young starter here. Strahm has had a tough time for the Padres lately although he has settled down a little bit over his last two starts, working 11 innings after lasting just 7 2/3 innings over his previous two outings. He owns a solid 1.14 WHIP here at Petco Park this season. The Giants have scored 23 runs in their last two games but they're by no means an elite offensive club. Look for Strahm to keep their bats in check early and for the Padres offense to take care of the rest. Take San Diego (10*). |
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06-28-19 | Pirates v. Brewers -142 | 3-2 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Pittsburgh at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pirates are coming off a surprising series win in Houston, scoring a whopping 24 runs in their last two victories. I expect to see the Brewers cool them off on Friday, however, as they look to build on yesterday's sweep-avoiding win over the Mariners. Keep in mind, the Brewers check in eight games over .500 here at home this season. Even with the back-to-back wins in Houston, the Pirates are still a losing club on the road this season. Buccos starter Chris Archer has quite simply been one of the worst starters in all of baseball this season, recording a 5.56 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The numbers get far worse when you only consider his road starts, where he owns an 8.42 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. He has allowed 10 earned runs in just nine innings of work in two career starts at Miller Park, both coming last year. Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin has also struggled lately but the Brew Crew are 4-2 in his six home starts this season where he has posted a respectable 1.29 WHIP. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-25-19 | A's v. Cardinals -135 | 7-3 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Oakland at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. After a red hot May, the A's have cooled off a bit in June. Were it not for a three-game sweep of the league-worst Orioles, they would be under .500 on the month. Now they head to St. Louis where the Cardinals have played solid baseball this season and are coming off a series win over the Angels. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Cards. He owns a stellar 2.49 ERA at home this season and should be able to handle an A's lineup that has produced a grand total of 22 runs over a five-game stretch since exploding for 16 runs in a win over the Orioles last week. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He has managed to last at least six innings just once in his last six trips to the hill and has seen his ERA rise from 1.93 on May 16th to 3.64 currently. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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06-24-19 | Mets v. Phillies -124 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We're looking a short price here largely due to the Phillies seven-game slide, which included a series sweep at home against the lowly Marlins over the weekend. I do expect the Phils to snap out of the funk here as they host another struggling team in the Mets. New York has been a train wreck on and off the field with tensions boiling over to the clubhouse after Sunday's meltdown against the Cubs. Here, I'll give the edge to the Phillies with Zach Eflin taking the mound against Steven Matz. Matz owns an ERA north of six on the road while Eflin is coming off a string of quality starts. Eflin's losing record doesn't tell the entire story as he owns a rock solid 2.83 ERA and 1.16 WHIP not to mention a 73:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-22-19 | Orioles v. Mariners -173 | 8-4 | Loss | -173 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Baltimore at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Orioles continue to struggle, now sitting 34 games under .500 on the season. The Mariners gave them every opportunity to steal last night's game, even spotting them a 3-0 lead in the first inning. Still, Baltimore fell short in a slugfest and I don't expect to see it bounce back with a victory today. Andrew Cashner didn't fare well against the Mariners last season, giving up 11 hits and six earned runs in 10 2/3 innings of work. He posted only three strikeouts while walking six and allowed four home runs in those two starts. Veteran Tommy Milone continues to be a serviceable arm in the Mariners rotation, having allowed exactly two earned runs in all three starts. He's allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and his 32:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio is impressive to say the least. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-22-19 | Twins -168 v. Royals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Kansas City at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Twins opened this series with a loss but bounced back with a come-from-behind win last night and I expect them to keep it rolling on Saturday afternoon. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Minnesota. He's been lights out over his last three starts, posting a 1.31 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings of work. The Twins check in 6-1 in his seven previous road outings. Danny Duffy will counter for Kansas City. The Royals are 2-4 when he takes the mound at home and Duffy has posted a 6.28 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last three starts, covering a span of only 14 1/3 innings. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-19-19 | Royals v. Mariners -121 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Kansas City at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners were blown out 9-0 in last night's game and now face a sweep at the hands of the lowly Royals. I expect Seattle to avoid that fate, however, as they hand the ball to Marco Gonzalez against Brad Keller on Wednesday. Gonzalez has guided the M's to victory in each of his last two starts, giving up just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings of work. He has also posted a 3-1 team record in four career starts against the Royals, including a 6-3 victory in Kansas City earlier this season. Meanwhile, Kansas City checks in 2-7 with Keller on the mound on the road this season, giving him less than 2.7 runs per start to work with. The Royals are a miserable 4-11 when Keller takes the ball. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-19-19 | Astros -166 v. Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -166 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Astros have now lost three games in a row, scoring just five total runs in the process. I expect them to bounce back on Wednesday, however, as they hand the ball to Gerrit Cole. Note that Houston is a perfect 3-0 in Cole's three afternoon starts this season and he checks in with a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over his last three outings overall. Tyler Mahle, today's starter for Cincinnati, is just 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in daytime starts this year. Last night we saw the Reds jump out to a 3-0 first inning lead before getting outscored 3-1 the rest of the way in a 4-3 victory. Look for Cole to do a better job holding the Reds bats in check early and for the Astros lineup to take care of the rest. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-18-19 | Royals v. Mariners -117 | 9-0 | Loss | -117 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Kansas City at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Royals took the opener of this series last night but that doesn't change the fact that wins have been tough to come by for Kansas City on the road this season, where it has posted a 10-25 record. Tonight they'll give the ball to Homer Bailey, who despite pitching well in his last two starts, has guided the Royals to victory in only six of 14 starts this season, posting an ERA well north of five. He faced the Mariners earlier this season, allowing seven earned runs over five frames. Yusei Kikuchi will counter for Seattle. While he has also struggled this season, the Mariners have still managed to split his six home starts and he pitched well against the Royals back in April, giving up three earned runs over six innings. I like the bounce-back spot for the Mariners, who have found their footing a little bit after a dismal stretch. Take Seattle (10*). |
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06-18-19 | Astros -158 v. Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -158 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the Astros in a close one last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well as they hand the ball to their ace Justin Verlander on Tuesday. Verlander has been nothing short of brilliant again this season with the 'Stros winning seven of his nine road starts, outscoring the opposition by nearly three runs per game. Meanwhile, Reds starter Anthony has posted a 1-4 team record in five home starts, with his ERA approaching 5.50 in those contests. Houston is seven games over .500 on the road while the Reds check in an even 17-17 at home. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-17-19 | Astros +107 v. Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Astros here after getting blown out by the Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, Houston hasn't lost back-to-back games since May 22nd and 23rd. Wade Miley will take the ball for the Astros. Houston is outscoring the opposition by nearly four runs per game with Miley on the hill on the road this season, averaging north of seven runs per contest. He has owned the Reds lately, allowing just three earned runs in 26 1/3 innings of work against them since the start of 2017. Luis Castillo certainly owns elite numbers for the Reds this season, but Cincinnati has only managed to go 7-7 in his 14 starts. He has issued 13 walks and allowed four home runs over his last four outings. Take Houston (10*). |
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06-16-19 | Pirates v. Marlins +107 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Pittsburgh at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll go ahead and fade Pirates starter Chris Archer on Sunday afternoon. The Pirates have won just three of Archer's 11 starts this season and have dropped all four of his starts away from home. Last time out Archer needed 108 pitches to get through six innings, allowing seven earned runs in a loss to the Braves. The Marlins actually got to see him twice last season, collecting 13 hits and six earned runs in 12 innings of work. Sandy Alcantara will counter for Miami. He has quietly been pitching well, allowing one earned run or less in four of his last five starts. The Marlins have won only two of his seven home starts, but that's only because they've plated an average of just 1.86 runs per game. Take Miami (10*). |
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06-14-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -142 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Chicago at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I like the way the Dodgers set up to grab a win here as they send Rich Hill to the mound against Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has been excellent this season and enters this start in terrific form. With that being said, he's been clubbed for four home runs in his last two starts against the Dodgers, spanning just 7 2/3 innings. The Cubs have only managed to split his six road starts this season, where he owns a 3.89 ERA. Meanwhile, Hill has posted a 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP here at home. The Dodgers have won his last two starts by a combined 15-2 score. It's also worth mentioning that he's undefeated in two career home starts against the Cubs, allowing just one earned run in 11 innings of work. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-13-19 | Cardinals v. Mets -123 | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over St. Louis at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Solid value with the Mets as they hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom on Thursday night. DeGrom has just one win in six starts at home this season but it's not as if he's pitched that poorly. The problem is the Mets have given him just 3.5 runs per start to to work with here. Considering they've plated 26 runs in their last four games, and will face Cards starter Jack Flaherty, who sports an ERA just shy of seven on the road, I look for the Mets to give DeGrom enough support to earn a victory here. Take New York (10*). |
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06-12-19 | Padres -141 v. Giants | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -141 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. I like the Padres with Joey Lucchesi taking the ball against Shaun Anderson on Wednesday night. While Lucchesi has posted an ugly ERA north of six and gone winless on the road this season, the Padres have actually won his last two starts away from home, and he should be highly-motivated here after getting torched for seven earned runs the last time he faced the Giants. Keep in mind, in his first start against San Francisco this season, Lucchesi was sharp, giving up just three hits over 5 1/3 shutout innings in a 4-1 win. We're dealing with a pretty small sample size as far as rookie Shaun Anderson goes for the Giants. He's been good but not great, and checks in winless in three home starts. The Padres didn't carry great form into this series but neither did the Giants. I do consider San Diego to be the superior club in this matchup and I'm willing to lay the chalk to back it on Wednesday night. Take San Diego (10*). |
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06-11-19 | Tigers +117 v. Royals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not buying this line for a second. The Tigers have been a better team on the road than at home this season and Tuesday's starter, Spencer Turnbull has gone 3-2 with an impressive 2.86 ERA in six road starts. Meanwhile, Royals starter Jakob Junis checks in 4-6 with a 5.62 ERA and that ERA balloons to 6.27 in over 37 innings of work at home. The Royals are miserable no matter where they play and I can't make a case for them being favored, even against a losing opponent in the Tigers. Take Detroit (10*). |
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06-05-19 | Dodgers -155 v. Diamondbacks | 2-3 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers are rolling along right now and have taken the first two games in this series, outscoring the D'Backs by a 12-1 score. There's little reason to expect anything different on Wednesday as they close out their series at Chase Field. Kenta Maeda checks in sporting a 7-2 record to go along with a 3.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. While he has struggled on the road, I'm not overly concerned. Note that he has posted an incredible 22:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last three starts, including a road outing in Pittsburgh. The D'Backs will counter with rookie Jon Duplantier. He was solid in his big league debut against the Mets last week, but Arizona still lost that game by a 5-4 score. The Snakes own just two victories over their last nine contests. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-04-19 | Orioles v. Rangers -114 | 12-11 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Baltimore at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a case of two clubs going in completely opposite directions but I don't believe the matchup is being priced accordingly. The Orioles have lost four of their last five games and site 23 games under .500 on the season. Meanwhile, the Rangers have reeled off five wins in their last six contests and sit 20-9 here at home this season. The pitching matchup may look like a wash on paper but the difference is, the Orioles aren't scoring with any sort of consistency. Baltimore has been held to two runs or less in four of its last five games. Meanwhile, the Rangers have plated at least five runs in five of their last six games. The O's are 3-8 with Dylan Bundy on the mound this season, giving him just north of three runs per start. Take Texas (10*). |
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06-04-19 | Marlins v. Brewers -165 | 16-0 | Loss | -165 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. We're being asked to lay plenty of chalk to support the Brewers here, but the price could be even higher as far as I'm concerned. The Marlins are already at a disadvantage having to travel from San Diego, where they won back-to-back games over the weekend. Even with those two victories, they're still just 10-18 on the road this season. Meanwhile, Milwaukee checks in having won five of their last seven games and sit 18-11 at Miller Park. The last time Marlins starter Pablo Lopez faced the Brew Crew he lasted six innings but gave up five earned runs in an 8-4 loss last July. Meanwhile, Chase Anderson was on the hill for a 12-3 Brewers victory at home against the Marlins a year ago. Milwaukee was priced as an even higher favorite in that contest and obviously won with ease. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-02-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees +111 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Yankees as they're simply playing better baseball than the Red Sox right now, and have made a habit of beating up on Red Sox starter David Price here at Yankee Stadium. In Price's last four starts in the Bronx he has been lit up for 24 earned runs over 20 innings of work. Meanwhile, the Yanks are doing a nice job of controlling starter CC Sabathia's workload as he has yet to throw 100 pitches in a start this season. New York is 6-2 in Sabathia's eight outings this season. The Red Sox have dropped four games in a row and it's worth noting that they're a losing club on the road this season at 15-17. Meanwhile, the Yanks have gone 21-11 at home. Take New York (10*). |
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06-01-19 | Royals v. Rangers -149 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Kansas City at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rangers are playing pretty good baseball right now and they get a chance to tee off on Royals starter Homer Bailey once again on Saturday afternoon. Kansas City has now dropped Bailey's last three starts and the last time he faced the Rangers, the result was a 16-1 Texas rout. Rangers veteran starter Lance Lynn actually checks in with 21 strikeouts over his last two starts. The Rangers are a solid 6-3 in his last nine trips to the hill. Take Texas (10*). |
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05-29-19 | Indians +117 v. Red Sox | 14-9 | Win | 117 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Boston at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday. I like the value being offered with the struggling Indians here as they hand the ball to Shane Bieber, who has already previously been on the hill for a win here at Fenway Park last season, and comes in with a ton of confidence, having struck out 25 over his last two starts, spanning 14 innings of work. Ryan Weber makes his second start of the season for the Red Sox after tossing an effective six innings against the lowly Blue Jays last week. Note that was Weber's first big league start since making one start with the Mariners back in 2017. I'm not expecting big things from him moving forward and think the Indians can get to him in this contest. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals -145 | 5-2 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Atlanta at 8:15 pm et on Friday. Tough spot for the Braves here as they travel after taking three of four games in San Francisco to face a Cardinals club that enjoyed an off-day yesterday, which came on the heels of a 10-run outburst against the Royals on Wednesday. Atlanta holds no edge on the mound here as Mike Foltynewicz has been their worst starter this season, going winless in five starts. Meanwhile, Miles Mikolas has been 'good enough' for the Cards, particularly here at home where he owns a 3.00 ERA in 33 innings of work. While St. Louis has struggled overall, it remains five games over .500 at home, where it averages over five runs per game. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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05-18-19 | Rays v. Yankees +114 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. Off a come-from-behind win over the Rays last night I look for the Yankees to keep it going on Saturday afternoon as they send Masahiro Tanaka to the hill against Blake Snell. The Rays are just 1-2 in Snell's three road starts this season, averaging less than three runs of offensive production in those games. They've given him no more than three runs in any of his last four starts against the Yankees with Tampa Bay winning just once in those four contests. Meanwhile, Tanaka has been outstanding in his last two starts, allowing only three earned runs in his last 13 1/3 innings of work. The Yanks have given him seven runs to work with in each of his last two starts against the Rays. Take New York (10*). |
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05-17-19 | Orioles v. Indians -182 | 5-1 | Loss | -182 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Baltimore at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Just because we're being asked to lay a lot of chalk doesn't mean there's not value to be had. In this case, I believe the Indians should be priced much higher against the Orioles. Cleveland isn't off to an ideal start this season but we've seen its offense come to life over the last couple of games and I expect the Tribe to enjoy another fine night at the plate against Dylan Bundy on Friday night. Much like last night's O's starter Dan Straily, Dylan Bundy really has no business being in a big league rotation right now. On the flip side, Indians starter Jefry Rodriguez has been terrific, posting a sub-3.00 ERA and is coming off an outstanding performance in Oakland in his last start. Save for Trey Mancini, the O's really don't have many imposing bats in their lineup. We'll catch the Indians on the upswing here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-08-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rays -149 | 3-2 | Loss | -149 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Arizona at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Rays as they aim to continue their hot start to the season on Wednesday afternoon against the D'Backs. Charlie Morton will take the ball for Tampa Bay. He has been one of the premier pitchers in baseball since the start of the 2017 season, yet is rarely priced like it. The Rays have won four of his last five starts but he hasn't been priced north of -165 over that stretch. Robbie Ray is a formidable opponent for the Rays bats, but he has yet to really round into form this season, posting a 3.79 ERA through his first seven starts. Note that he is winless in a pair of afternoon starts, with the D'Backs giving him a grand total of two runs to work with. Runs could be tough to come by for the visitors again on Wednesday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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05-07-19 | White Sox v. Indians -150 | 2-0 | Loss | -150 | 21 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Chicago at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Indians suffered their second consecutive beatdown, this time at the hands of the White Sox on Monday night. I fully expect to see Cleveland bounce back on Tuesday, however, as it draws a favorable pitching matchup sending Jefry Rodriguez to the hill against Lucas Giolito. The White Sox busted out at the dish last night but haven't really been playing all that well and remain a losing club on the road. On the flip side, while the Indians have struggled their last couple of games, they're still a winning team at home and Jefry Rodriguez has pitched well in two starts for the club this season. Look for the Cleveland bats to wake up in time to get to Lucas Giolito. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-06-19 | Mariners v. Yankees -143 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Seattle at 6:35 pm et on Monday. The Mariners finally snapped their long losing streak with a blowout win in Cleveland yesterday afternoon but I look for them to go back to their losing ways on Monday night at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have exceeded expectations in spite of an injury-plagued roster. They're fresh off another quality win over the Twins yesterday afternoon and I expect them to keep it going with veteran CC Sabathia on Monday night. The Mariners will counter with a veteran of their own in Felix Hernandez and while he has pitched reasonably well, Seattle has managed only one win in his last four starts. Solid value with the Yanks at home to open this series. Take New York (10*). |
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05-05-19 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -127 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. I just don't like the direction the Blue Jays are going right now, having scored just 14 runs in the first five games of their road trip. The Rangers were shut out in the opener of this series on Friday night but have scored at least four runs in six of their last seven contests. They're a winning team here at home, sitting at 11-7 on the season while the Jays check in 8-10 on the road and as I mentioned have struggled on their current road trip with just one victory in five tries. The pitching matchup is virtually a wash with both starters struggling at what is essentially the back-end of their respective careers. Take the home side here. Take Texas (10*). |
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04-09-19 | Padres -116 v. Giants | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Padres as they look to continue to beat up on the struggling Giants on Tuesday night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for the Padres. He hasn't really been stretched out in his first two starts, but has certainly pitched well, allowing just seven hits over 9 1/3 shutout innings. He hasn't needed to throw more than 94 pitches since August 29th last year. Derek Holland will counter for San Francisco. He had a nice bounce-back season last year, posting a sub-4.00 ERA and making 30 starts. However, the fact remains he's been a losing pitcher in each of the last three seasons, going 21-33 over that stretch. The Giants have dropped six of his last seven starts overall. Holland has allowed a home run in each of his first two outings this season, while also issuing six walks in just nine innings of work. Take San Diego (10*). |
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08-26-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -132 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Pittsburgh at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates blew the Brewers out last night, delivering a 9-1 victory to bring an end to a four-game losing streak. I look for Milwaukee to answer back on Sunday afternoon as the Brew Crew hand the ball to Chase Anderson. After a couple of rocky outings, Anderson got back on track last time out, allowing just two earned runs over six innings in a 5-2 win over the Reds. He needed only 76 pitches to get through that outing. Note that the Brewers have won eight of Anderson's 13 home starts this season. Chris Archer will counter for Pittsburgh. The Pirates have gone 2-2 in his four starts since joining the club, including losses in his last two outings. Archer hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning since back on July 28th. The Brewers haven't exactly been playing their best baseball lately, but they can deliver their second consecutive series win with a victory here on Sunday. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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08-13-18 | Mariners v. A's -129 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Oakland over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Mariners pulled off a shocking series sweep in Houston over the weekend but I don't believe they'll enjoy equal success against the surging A's in Oakland on Monday. Marco Gonzalez will take the ball for Seattle. After a tremendous stretch from late June until late July, Gonzalez has fallen back to Earth in his last two outings, allowing 11 earned runs on 19 hits over just 12 innings pitched. The A's have had mixed results against Gonzalez this season but will be getting their third look at him on Monday. Sean Manaea is coming off a rough outing for the A's but should bounce back here. Prior to giving up three earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings last time out, Manaea had allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts. Manaea's last five starts against the Mariners have come in Seattle. His last home start against them resulted in a 3-1 A's victory in April of last year. Take Oakland (10*). |
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07-31-18 | Phillies v. Red Sox -141 | 3-1 | Loss | -141 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Red Sox starter Drew Pomeranz has been struggling while Phillies veteran Jake Arrieta has held his own of late, but Philadelphia is having a tough time right now having dropped four games in a row. I believe we're being offered a fair price to back the Red Sox coming off a 13-inning victory last night. Boston checks in having won four in a row and has allowed just eight runs over that stretch. The Phillies have plated just seven runs over the course of their four-game skid. Take the under (10*). |
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06-24-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers -120 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over St. Louis at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Cardinals got one back from the Brewers yesterday but I look for Milwaukee to bounce back on Sunday afternoon. Luke Weaver will take the ball for the Cards. He has struggled this season, going 3-6 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He's been even worse on the road, posting an ERA north of five and a 1.63 WHIP. In Weaver's lone start against the Brewers this season he came out on the wrong end of an 8-3 loss. Jhoulys Chacin will counter for Milwaukee. He has been rolling along lately, working at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts. Last time out he needed only 74 pitches to get through 6 1/3 innings, allowing only one earned run in the process. Chacin has posted a 2.31 ERA at home this season, with the Brewers winning five of his six starts at Miller Park. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-12-18 | Indians -134 v. White Sox | 1-5 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Indians took the opener of this series without much trouble last night, cruising to a 4-0 victory behind another terrific performance from Carlos Carrasco. I look for them to come up with another victory on Tuesday night. Adam Plutko will take the ball for the Indians. After pitching well in his first two big league starts, he got roughed up by these same White Sox just last week, giving up five earned runs on six hits over five innings. Plutko was tagged for a pair of home runs in that game and has now given up five long balls in 18 1/3 innings pitched this season. Keep in mind, the Indians have won each of Plutko's three starts and I look for them to give him plenty of run support again on Tuesday. That's because James Shields starts for the White Sox. He has actually pitched reasonably well this season but has shown some cracks lately, giving up 16 hits and 10 earned runs in 13 innings of work over his last two starts. In those two starts he allowed six home runs. Since joining the White Sox, Shields has posted a 1-3 team record in four starts against the Indians and his teams have dropped four of his last five outings against the Tribe overall. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Angels v. Twins +112 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Even though they only managed to split a four-game series against the lowly White Sox, I do like the way the Twins are playing right now, having won four of their last six games. They managed a split in a four-game set in Anaheim earlier this season and I look for them to get the better of the Angels in the opener of this series on Friday night. Garrett Richards will take the ball for Los Angeles. The Angels have dropped his last four starts and he has managed to work more than five innings only twice over that stretch. He couldn't make it through six innings in his lone previous start against the Twins this season, although the Angels did win that game. Lance Lynn will counter for Minnesota. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, allowing just three earned runs on 13 hits over 18 2/3 innings during that span. Note that the Twins are 5-1 in his last six trips to the hill. He wasn't at his best, but the Twins did defeat the Angels 5-4 in his lone previous outing against them this season. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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06-01-18 | Phillies v. Giants +103 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 103 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over Philadelphia at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Phillies spoiled Clayton Kershaw's return in Los Angeles yesterday but remain just 6-7 over their last 13 games, not winning consecutive games a single time over that stretch. Nick Pivetta will take the ball for the Phillies on Friday. Pivetta's overall numbers are fine but he's worked beyond the fifth inning just twice in his last six starts. It's also worth noting that he owns a less than impressive 5.82 ERA in four road starts this season. Mind you most of the damage was done in an ugly one-inning outing in Washington. The Phils are just 3-3 in Pivetta's last six starts overall. Chris Stratton will counter for San Francisco. The Giants have gone an impressive 8-3 in his 11 starts so far this season. Like Pivetta, Stratton hasn't had much success working deep into ball games with any consistency. I do like the fact that he has thrown fewer than 90 pitches in each of his last three starts, however. With Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria finally starting to heat up, I believe it's a good time to 'buy low' with the Giants as they return home following a disappointing road trip. Remember, they've gone 14-10 at home this season. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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05-30-18 | Mets v. Braves -153 | 4-1 | Loss | -153 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Mets aren't playing good baseball right now by any means. They haven't played good baseball on the road, with any consistency anyway, since April. Off another disastrous finish last night, I don't expect them to bounce back on Wednesday. Jason Vargas will get the call for New York and to say his start to the season has been terrible would be a big understatement. Vargas sports an ERA north of 10 and has lasted five innings just once in five starts this season. That lone positive outing came in a favorable spot at home against the Marlins, a game in which we cashed a big ticket play on the 'under'. Julio Teheran will counter for Atlanta. He has been consistently keeping his team in the game, having worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. He's also not giving up many hits having allowed just 21 over those five most recent outings, spanning 30 innings of work. Command has been a bit of an issue with nine walks issued over his last three starts but I believe improvement is on the horizon in that regard. The Braves are playing without rookie standout Ronald Acuna Jr. but others have been stepping up in his absence this week. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-23-18 | Indians v. Cubs -165 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Big Chalk Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll lay the lofty price to back the Cubs in a big bounce-back spot on Wednesday night at Wrigley Field. The Indians took the opener of this series in blowout fashion last night. Don't count on a repeat performance tonight, however. Rookie Adam Plutko will take the ball for the Tribe - making his second start of the season. Last time out, he was impressive, allowing just three earned runs on six hits and no walks in 7 1/3 innings against the Blue Jays. That was back on May 3rd. He did get tagged for three home runs in that game. Chicago will turn to its ace, Jon Lester. He has at least worked into the sixth inning in each of his last six starts, needing to throw more than 100 pitches only twice over that stretch. Note that the Cubs are 7-2 in his nine starts so far this season. He'll certainly be up for this World Series rematch against the Indians and I'm confident he'll pitch well and get the run support he needs to earn a 'W'. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-19-18 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Mets | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over New York at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs have certainly been struggling lately but I like them to turn the tide on Saturday night in Queens. Patrick Corbin will take the ball for Arizona. He brings a three-start winless streak to the table on Saturday but save for his most recent start, he has continued to pitch well. Note that Corbin has worked at least six innings in five of his last six trips to the hill. After going 1-3 in his first four career starts against the Mets he went 2-0 against them last year. Steven Matz will counter for the Mets. He has worked six innings only once in seven starts this season. Matz hasn't looked all that comfortable pitching at home, posting a 4.66 ERA. He pitched well but the Mets suffered a 5-3 loss in his lone prevous outing against the D'Backs in 2016. Take Arizona (10*). |
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05-15-18 | Rangers +130 v. Mariners | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a tough spot for the Mariners as they return home following a make-up game in Minnesota last night. Seattle made the trip to Minnesota from Detroit where it played a weekend series. While the M's were in action against the Twins, the Rangers were sitting idle last night. Texas has actually been a better team on the road than at home this season, going 9-10 away from home but just 7-16 in Arlington. Mike Minor will take the ball for the Rangers on Tuesday. Despite lasting seven innings, he came out on the losing end of a 7-4 decision against Detroit last time out. The Rangers have won four of his last six starts, however, and he has pitched reasonably well, working at least six innings in three straight outings. Mike Leake is coming off arguably his best start of the young season, allowing only two earned runs over seven innings in Toronto last week. Of course, it helped that he was spotted a big early lead in that one. The Mariners have actually won just two of his last five starts overall. Take Texas (10*). |
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05-15-18 | White Sox +139 v. Pirates | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The White Sox are in a rebuilding year and have just 10 wins to their credit so far this season, although it is worth noting that seven of those 10 victories have come on the road and they've actually managed to win two of Reynaldo Lopez's last three trips to the hill. Their lone loss in those three starts came against the same Pirates Lopez will face on Tuesday. He actually out-pitched Pirates starter Trevor Williams in that contest, allowing only two earned runs on three hits over 7 1/3 innings of work. He has now worked into the seventh inning at least in three consecutive starts. The aforementioned Williams has failed to get through the sixth inning in his last two starts, allowing seven earned runs in 10 2/3 innings pitched. The Pirates are just 2-3 in his last five starts overall. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-13-18 | Cardinals v. Padres +117 | 3-5 | Win | 117 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over St. Louis at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Padres got a win back against the Cardinals last night after dropping the first two games in this series. They can earn a split in the four-game series with a victory on Sunday and I look for them to accomplish just that. Adam Wainwright will take the ball for St. Louis. He has been on the shelf since pitching the Cards to a victory over the Cubs on April 17th. Note that the Cards had dropped his previous two outings this season. Clayton Richard is coming off his best start of the year for the Padres, tossing eight innings of three-run ball against the streaking Nationals last time out. He has now worked into the seventh inning at least in two of his last three trips to the hill. It's also worth noting that he has given up just one home run over his last three starts combined. The public is lining up to back the Cards but I'll take a shot with the Padres here. Take San Diego (10*). |
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05-11-18 | Cardinals v. Padres +135 | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over St. Louis at 10:10 pm et on Friday. There's not a lot separating these two clubs on the mound on Friday night and as a result, I'm willing to step up to the plate with the underdog Padres. Luke Weaver will take the ball for St. Louis. He's been roughed up in four straight starts, allowing at least four earned runs in each of those outings. The Cards have won just one of those four contests. Meanwhile, Eric Lauer is coming off a terrific outing against the Dodgers in which he tossed six shutout innings. The Padres won that game by a 3-0 score. While San Diego is off to another poor start, I do think they're catching the Cardinals at the right time in this series, noting that St. Louis is currently without its heart and soul Yadier Molina due to injury. Take San Diego (10*). |
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05-11-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks +185 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The presence of Max Scherzer on the mound for the Nationals is why we're looking at such a generous line to back the home underdog Padres in this contest. I'm not about to knock Scherzer, one of the best pitchers in the game today. However, I will say that D'Backs starter Matt Koch has been pitching well also, allowing two earned runs or less in four consecutive starts. He'll have the benefit of pitching at home for the third straight time on Friday night. He outlasted Justin Verlander and the Astros in his most recent trip to the hill. Take Arizona (10*). |
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05-10-18 | Reds +154 v. Dodgers | 4-1 | Win | 154 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark going against the Dodgers last night as they rallied for a 6-3 victory over the D'Backs. Arizona let Los Angeles off the hook early in that game, failing to capitalize on early opportunities. The Dodgers still aren't playing their best baseball as they check in under .500 on the season. They'll send Walker Buehler and his perfect 2-0 record to the mound as he aims to follow up on last week's performance in a combined no-hitter against the Padres in Mexico. Buehler has yet to have a bad outing in three starts this season but that doesn't mean he's invincible. The Reds have to be feeling good about themselves, finally, after taking a series from the Mets at home. I like what I saw from Thursday's starter Tyler Mahle in his most recent outing as he allowed only five hits and three earned runs and didn't issue a single walk in six innings against the Marlins. Mahle had been racking up the strikeouts but saw that number dip to four in that most recent start - not necessarily a bad thing. Having worked at least six innings in three straight starts, I look for another good outing from Mahle here. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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05-10-18 | Twins +133 v. Angels | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Angels in an underdog role in Colorado yesterday afternoon but the shoe is on the other foot as they return home in a favorite role against the surging Twins on Thursday night. Minnesota is coming off a surprising two-game series sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis and enjoyed an off day yesterday. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Minnesota on Thursday. After getting roughed up in back-to-back outings, he bounced back to a certain extent last time out, working six innings in a 6-4 win over the White Sox. Berrios has been up and down this season but might be catching the Angels in a good spot as they adjust after playing a couple of games at Coors Field. Garrett Richards will counter for Los Angeles. He's off to a fine 4-1 start this season and tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings in Seattle last time out. However, just two starts back he was lit up for nine runs, five of them earned over 1 2/3 innings against the Yankees. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-09-18 | Diamondbacks +111 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I believe Patrick Corbin is already an elite starting pitcher, yet he's still not being priced in that category. Of course, helping our cause backing him here is the fact that Corbin came out on the wrong end of a 5-2 game at home against the Dodgers, and Alex Wood, just last week (we won with the 'under' in that game). Corbin has worked at least six innings in four straight and five of seven starts this season. He has allowed only six earned runs in 27 2/3 innings of work over his last four outings. Wood has been inconsistent to start the campaign for the Dodgers. He needed 96 pitches to get through just five innings against the D'Backs last week. Note that the Dodgers have won just one of his three home starts this season, scoring a grand total of 10 runs in those three games. The D'Backs have been the significantly better team so far in 2018 and I believe the long-term results will bear that out as well. Take Arizona (10*). |
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05-09-18 | Angels +135 v. Rockies | 8-0 | Win | 135 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. Jaime Barria isn't exactly a household name in baseball circles and as a result we're being offered a generous price to back the Angels on Wednesday afternoon in Denver. Barria has made three starts this season, but was only really stretched out in one of those, working six solid innings, and needing only 85 pitches to do so, last week against Baltimore. The Angels have won two of Barria's three starts, including a victory in his lone previous road outing. Tyler Anderson is coming off one of the best starts of his young career, allowing only two earned runs on three hits while striking out nine over seven innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. But now I look for him to suffer a bit of a letdown back at home. Note that Anderson has posted an unremarkable 3.00 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in splitting a pair of starts at Coors Field this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-09-18 | Indians v. Brewers +138 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. Keeping it simple, I just don't think the Indians are very good right now. At least they're not playing like a true contender. Carlos Carrasco has proven to be an elite starting pitcher, but hasn't performed like it lately, allowing 14 hits and 10 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings over his last two starts. Junior Guerra wasn't much better for the Brewers in his last start, but he also isn't saddled with such high expectations. Guerra has pitched well for the most part this season, recording a 2.33 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The Brewers have won two of his three outings at Miller Park in which he hasn't allowed a single earned run in two of those. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-08-18 | Angels +125 v. Rockies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Angels have had the Rockies number, taking nine straight meetings in this series. The Rockies do come into this game riding a five-game winning streak - with all of those wins coming on their most recent road trip. But Los Angeles is hot as well, having won five of its last six contests. I give the Angels a slight edge on the mound in this one as well with Andrew Heaney going up against Jon Gray. Gray has really struggled in two home starts this season, posting an ERA north of seven. While we did win with him in his most recent start against the Cubs in Chicago, I look for him to struggle at Coors Field again here. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-08-18 | Indians v. Brewers +176 | 2-3 | Win | 176 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Indians are expected to be one of the best teams in baseball this season but they haven't played the part so far this season, posting a .500 record through 34 games. They enter this series off a sweep at the hands of the Yankees and even with their ace Corey Kluber on the hill I'm not sure they pick themselves up off the mat in Tuesday's series opener in Milwaukee. I'm not going to knock Kluber, he's off to another tremendous start and will likely pitch well here. But I'm not convinced the Indians can do enough at the dish to get him a win. Wade Miley will make his second start of the season for the Brewers. He gave up just one earned run over six innings last time out in Cincinnati. The Brewers just dropped a series against Pittsburgh but have still won four of their last six games overall. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-08-18 | Giants +186 v. Phillies | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Phillies absolutely crushed the Giants by an 11-0 score in last night's series opener but I look for the Giants to bounce back on Tuesday night. Keep in mind, the Giants had been playing well heading into this series, riding a four-game winning streak. Derek Holland will take the ball for San Francisco. His overall numbers aren't great by any means but he did pitch reasonably well last time out, needing 87 pitches to get through five innings, allowing three earned runs. The Giants have won his last two starts. Aaron Nola has been terrific for the Phillies, going 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA. I'm just not sure he can keep it up. He'll be pitching tonight after throwing more than 100 pitches in each of his last three starts. He has lost his previous two starts against the Giants, allowing 10 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings pitched. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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05-02-18 | Orioles +134 v. Angels | 7-10 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Orioles dropped the opener of this series last night but it was close as they fell by a 3-2 score. While Baltimore has struggled this season, it did win a series against the Tigers on the weekend and on Wednesday it will have at least one thing going for it as Dylan Bundy takes the hill. Bundy got roughed up by the surging Rays last time out but had certainly been pitching well and still owns a sub-3.00 ERA this season. Bundy led the Orioles to a 6-2 win over the Angels here in Anaheim in his lone previous start against them. Andrew Heaney will counter for the Angels. He has yet to last more than five innings in a start this season and the Halos have dropped his last two trips to the hill. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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05-02-18 | Braves +151 v. Mets | 7-0 | Win | 151 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over New York at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mets aren't playing good baseball right now. Yes, they have a considerable edge on the mound on Wednesday with Jacob deGrom going up against Sean Newcombe but I look for Atlanta to once again rise to the occasion. The Braves have to be brimming with confidence after getting to Noah Syndergaard early on their way to another victory last night. It's worth noting that deGrom has gone winless in three home starts against Atlanta. The Braves are a good team, plain and simple. I don't believe they're a flash in the pan. Solid value with them in an underdog role again tonight. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-01-18 | White Sox +205 v. Cardinals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not sure there's as much separating these two clubs as the line would indicate. The Cardinals will obviously have the edge on the mound with Michael Wacha pitching exceptionally well in the early going this season. But he's certainly not invincible. Note that Wacha had lasted five innings or less in his first three starts this season before settling in over his last two outings. Save for an ugly start against the defending world champion Astros, veteran James Shields has pitched well for the White Sox this season, enjoying a renaissance of sorts. That may be stretching it a little as he has certainly been hittable at times, but this is the type of matchup I believe he gets up for and I'm confident he'll give the White Sox a chance to win on Tuesday night. Take Chicago (10*). |
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05-01-18 | Rockies +140 v. Cubs | 3-1 | Win | 140 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs breezed to a series sweep of the Brewers over the weekend but they're in for more of a challenge against the Rockies, as evidenced by last night's contest. On Tuesday, the Rockies won't be at as much of a disadvantage on the hill as they send Jon Gray against Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks certainly owns the better numbers so far this season but Gray is coming off a strong performance and certainly capable of pitching better against the Cubs than he did in a blowout loss at home two starts back (he was opposed by Hendricks in that game as well). The Rockies will be up for this one and I like them at a generous price. Take Colorado (10*). |
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04-30-18 | Phillies v. Marlins +133 | 4-8 | Win | 133 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. After a miserable start to the season, the Marlins have at least shown signs of turning things around, having won four of their last five games overall. Meanwhile, the Phillies got off to a better than expected start but have stumbled lately, dropping back-to-back series' at home against the D'Backs and Braves. Jake Arrieta's numbers are terrific but I'm not sure he's been quite as dominant as those numbers would seem to indicate. Dan Straily makes his first start of the season for the Marlins after pitching pretty well down the stretch for the Fish last year. Solid value with the team playing better baseball right now. Take Miami (10*). |
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04-30-18 | Rangers +168 v. Indians | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers are coming off a loss in Toronto yesterday but the fact is, they're still playing better baseball than the Indians right now and I don't believe Cleveland holds all that decisive of an edge in terms of the starting pitching matchup. Cole Hamels is 1-4 with an ERA north of four, but he's pitched well in two of his last three outings. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. As well as Trevor Bauer has pitched for the Indians, recording a sub-3.00 ERA, they've still only managed to win twice in his five trips to the hill. Take Texas (10*). |
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04-29-18 | Brewers +150 v. Cubs | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. The Brewers haven't even managed to score a run let alone win a game in this series so far but I do look for them to bounce back on Sunday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Zach Davies will take the ball for the Brew Crew. He's coming off back-to-back solid outings in which he allowed only two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings of work. He's lasted into the sixth inning in four of five starts this season. Tyler Chatwood will counter for Chicago. He allowed only one earned run over six innings in his last start but has issued a whopping 12 walks over his last two starts, highlighting the issues he's had with his command. Solid value fading a middle of the pack starter here. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-29-18 | Tigers +141 v. Orioles | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Tigers on Sunday afternoon as they send Daniel Norris to the hill against Kevin Gausman. Norris has bounced around between the bullpen in long relief and the starting rotation. He has a lot to prove at this stage of his career and at least on Sunday, I look for him to pitch well, noting he's been solid with the exception of an outing against the Indians earlier this season. Kevin Gausman threw eight terrific innings against the Indians last week but the O's still fell short in a 2-1 loss. Baltimore hasn't been good in the early going this season and I don't believe it warrants such a lofty price in this matchup. Take Detroit (10*). |
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04-28-18 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals +117 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs surprised the Nats' in last night's series opener (but not us as we cashed Arizona), getting the better of Stephen Strasburg in a one-run victory. I look for the Nationals to bounce back on Saturday, however, even as they face a red hot starting pitcher in Patrick Corbin. Corbin is coming off an 11-strikeout performance last time out and has given up just two earned runs over his last two starts, spanning 15 innings of work. He's not invincible, however, and the Nats' certainly have a lineup capable of taking advantage. Jeremy Hellickson has been serviceable in two starts with the Nats' this season. This will be his first home start in Washington and I look for him to perform well. Note that he needed only 93 pitches to work into the sixth inning in his last start, not bad for a back of the rotation starter. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-27-18 | Mets v. Padres +144 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over New York at 10:10 pm et on Friday. It's advantage Padres on Friday night as while they were idle returning home from Colorado on Thursday, the Mets were involved in an extra innings affair - a losing effort - in St. Louis. New York will have the edge on the mound with Jacob DeGrom going up against Clayton Richard on Friday night but I'm still willing to back the Padres given the generous price. Note that DeGrom has gone winless in his last two outings, despite pitching exceptionally well in those two starts. Meanwhile, Richard has done a nice job of keeping the Padres in games this season, even if he doesn't have the wins to show for it. Richard has worked at least five innings in all five starts he has made in 2018. Take San Diego (10*). |
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04-27-18 | Braves +156 v. Phillies | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Braves certainly got a boost with rookie phenom Ronald Acuna joining the big club in Cincinnati, and I look for some carry-over from that on Friday night in Philadelphia. With a winning record nearly a month into the season, the Braves seem to be arriving ahead of schedule in terms of their progression. I believe they have a lot more upside than the Phillies right now. Yes, Philadelphia has gotten off to a fine start as well, sitting ahead of the Braves in the N.L. East standings, however they just dropped two of three games at home against Arizona and I don't see a strong bounce-back performance coming on Friday night. I'll give Atlanta the nod with Julio Teheran going up against Aaron Nola in this series opener. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-26-18 | White Sox +147 v. Royals | 6-3 | Win | 147 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been dreadful this season. With starter Jakob Junis having accounted for three of the Royals five victories this season, Kansas City finds itself in the role of considerable favorite in this particular matchup. I'm willing to back the White Sox, who are coming off a tough series loss at home against the Mariners that featured a pair of one-run losses. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for Chicago. He was rocked by the Astros last time out, allowing nine earned runs over just two innings of work. He should bounce back against the Royals, however, having already limited them to three earned runs over six innings in his first start of the campaign. There's not a lot separating these two clubs right now but the price would seem to indicate otherwise. While I'm not sure how the rest of the series will go, I'm willing to back the White Sox at a generous price on Thursday night. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-26-18 | Brewers +150 v. Cubs | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Brewers are red hot right now, winners of eight games in a row. They easily could have suffered a letdown of sorts with an interleague series in Kansas City, but instead kept on rolling and now head to Chicago on a high note. Meanwhile, the Cubs are coming off a series split with the Indians - pretty much par for the course based on Chicago's uneven start to the season. I'll give the Brewers a slight edge on the mound tonight as they send Chase Anderson to the hill against Kyle Hendricks. Anderson has impressed in the early part of the season, going 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He has already faced the Cubs once, allowing just two earned runs over six innings back on April 8th. Hendricks has been hit hard, allowing 23 hits in 22 innings of work this season. He pitched reasonably well last time out in Colorado but still lasted only five innings. I'm just not sure the Cubbies belong in this price range tonight. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-25-18 | Marlins +335 v. Dodgers | 8-6 | Win | 335 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're getting an extremely generous price with the Marlins based on Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw's reputation alone on Wednesday evening. The fact is, Kershaw has been far from un-hittable in the early going this season, posting a 1-3 record with an ERA just under three. After going up against the Nationals on the weekend, I'm not sure we'll see supreme focus from the elite left-hander in this one, nor am I convinced the Dodgers bats can do enough damage to secure a victory. Trevor Richards will counter for Miami. The rookie has struggled in three of four starts so far this season but continues to battle. Keep in mind, just two starts back he tossed seven shutout innings against the Pirates. Richards is capable of keeping the Dodgers in check. Take Miami (10*). |
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04-25-18 | Twins +162 v. Yankees | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over New York at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Twins are slumping right now but I believe they're capable of bouncing back against Sonny Gray and the Yankees on Wednesday night. Gray hasn't been good this season, going 1-1 with an 8.27 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. Keep in mind, Gray hasn't been dominant in recent years either, posting a 15-23 record over the last three seasons combined heading into 2018. Lance Lynn will make his fourth start of the season for the Twins. He's been serviceable at the very least, actually tossing five shutout innings against the defending world champion Astros two starts back. Look for Lynn to pitch well enough to keep the Twins in the game on Wednesday night while their bats take care of the rest. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-24-18 | Angels v. Astros -143 | 8-7 | Loss | -143 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Charlie Morton remains an undervalued commodity for the Astros and I won't hesitate to back him and the defending world champion Astros on Tuesday night. Morton has gone 3-0 with a sparkling 0.72 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through four starts this season. He has made five career starts against the Angels, posting a flawless 5-0 team record in those outings. Shohei Ohtani will counter for Los Angeles. After pitching well in his first two starts - both against the A's - he came back to Earth in a blowout loss at the hands of the Red Sox last time out. I do expect him to bounce back and pitch reasonably well here, but I'm not convinced it will be enough for the Angels to pull out the victory. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-23-18 | Nationals v. Giants +108 | 2-4 | Win | 108 | 25 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Washington at 10:15 pm et on Monday. A small advantage for the Giants here as the Nationals played in the Sunday nighter in Los Angeles and now make the quick trip to San Francisco. I like the way the pitching matchup sets up for the Giants with Chris Stratton continuing to impress. Remember, Stratton pitched well after getting called up late last season and he's suffered no drop-off here in 2018, going undefeated in three starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Gio Gonzalez has been good, but not great for the Nationals, going 2-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He has posted a 1-3 team record in his last four trips to the hill in San Francisco. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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04-22-18 | Astros v. White Sox +185 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Houston at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Astros certainly appear to have the edge on the mound in this one, on paper at least. With that being said, Lance McCullers hasn't exactly been mowing down the opposition this season, while White Sox rookie Reynaldo Lopez has actually pitched far better than his record would indicate. The Astros did a number on the White Sox last night but Chicago will certainly be highly-motivated to get back on track here. It's been a trying start to the campaign for the White Sox but on this day, I believe they have an excellent shot at pulling off the upset. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-22-18 | Royals +146 v. Tigers | 8-5 | Win | 146 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I understand that the Royals have gotten off to a terrible start this season but I certainly don't feel they belong in this price range in what amounts to nothing more than a coin toss on the mound as far as I'm concerned. Erik Skoglund has not pitched well in two starts with the Royals this season but I do look for him to turn the corner on Sunday. The Tigers lit up Royals pitching yesterday but are unlikely to do it again for a second consecutive game. Veteran Francisco Liriano counters for the Tigers. He has posted solid numbers this season, but we're talking about a small sample size. The Royals are familiar with Liriano's stuff and I look for them to get to him on Sunday afternoon. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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04-21-18 | Red Sox v. A's +150 | 0-3 | Win | 150 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over Boston at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Chris Sale has looked unstoppable for the Red Sox, as has the team in general. They come into this contest having won eight games in a row but I look for them to get tripped up by Sean Manaea and the A's. Manaea has been almost as good as Sale this season, posting a 1.63 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. The A's will certainly be highly-motivated to win one here after dropping the opener of the series in blowout fashion last night. Note that the A's had won four games in a row prior to this series. Take Oakland (10*). |
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04-21-18 | Marlins +155 v. Brewers | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Marlins weren't close in the opener of this series but I look for them to bounce back on Saturday. Jose Urena will take the ball for the Marlins. He remains winless in four starts this season but hasn't pitched all that poorly since struggling in his season debut. On the flip side, Brent Suter has gone winless in his last three starts for the Brewers. He has yet to last six innings in a start this season. The Marlins obviously don't have a great deal of upside right now, but they're capable of winning this contest on Saturday night. Take Miami (10*). |
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04-20-18 | Padres +132 v. Diamondbacks | 4-1 | Win | 132 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Padres at an underdog price in Arizona on Friday night. Matt Koch will be making his first big league start since back in 2016 for the D'Backs. He did toss a couple of scoreless, hitless innings in a relief appearance this season but I'm confident we'll see the Padres do some damage against him in this one. Meanwhile, Tyson Ross has certainly been serviceable for San Diego and is coming off a fine outing. The Padres have a slight advantage here as the D'Backs hosted the Giants last night while the Pads' were idle. Take San Diego (10*). |
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04-20-18 | Blue Jays +180 v. Yankees | 8-5 | Win | 180 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Jays didn't get this series off to the start they had hoped for last night in the Bronx but I look for them to bounce back with Marco Estrada on the hill on Friday night. Yankees starter Sonny Gray got roughed up in his last start and is certainly beatable. Keep in mind, the Jays entered this series on a serious roll offensively but suffered a somewhat expected letdown in CC Sabathia's return last night (after putting up 15 runs against the Royals a day earlier). Take Toronto (10*). |
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04-19-18 | Pirates +104 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Buccos in Philadelphia. After Pittsburgh avoided a series sweep at the hands of the Rockies in a matinee affair yesterday, the Phillies were battling the Braves under the lights in Atlanta. So the Pirates got the travel jump on the Phillies and they'll also have an advantage on the mound on Thursday night as they send Jameson Taillon to the hill against veteran Jake Arrieta. Taillon has been lights out this season, posting a 0.89 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. Meanwhile, Arrieta has labored through two starts, relying heavily on his defense in the field to bail him out. Look for the the Pirates to take advantage of the mound mismatch here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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04-16-18 | Astros v. Mariners +114 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 114 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the Mariners as they host the defending World Series champion Astros on Monday night. Dallas Keuchel is off to a terrible start for the Astros this season, having allowed at least as many hits as innings pitched while walking nine and striking out only 13 in three starts to date. He'll get it sorted out but I'm not sure it happens here as the Astros head to Seattle following a night game on Sunday. James Paxton will counter for Seattle. He was roughed up in his first start of the season against the Indians but has certainly bounced back since, allowing just four earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only two in 11 innings over his last two starts - both on the road. He'll face a tough challenge here but I'm confident he'll pitch well. The Mariners may not be in the same class as the Astros but on this night, I look for them to make a bit of a statement. Take Seattle (10*). |
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04-14-18 | Phillies v. Rays -123 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -123 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Phillies last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Rays on Saturday as they hand the ball to their ace Chris Archer. The Phillies will turn to free agent acquisition Jake Arrieta who has struggled since joining the club. There's a reason teams were slow to jump at the opportunity to sign Arrieta. I expect even the light-hitting Rays to find a groove against Arrieta on Saturday. Keep in mind, the lowly Rays did come into this series off a four-game series split against the White Sox in Chicago earlier in the week. Chris Archer has faced a tough slate in the early going this year, going up against the Red Sox, Yankees and White Sox. He's held his own and I'm confident he can shine in his first career outing against the Phillies. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-13-18 | Phillies -106 v. Rays | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Phillies are quietly rolling along, winners of five of their last six games overall. There's little reason to think the struggling Rays will stand in their way on Friday night in front of what is likely to be a sparse crowd in St. Petersburg. Even on Wednesday, on a night when the Phillies couldn't get much going at the dish with only six hits, they still managed to pull out a win in 12 innings. That type of victory can do wonders for a club's confidence, especially one that hasn't enjoyed a great deal of success in recent seasons. Kevin Kiermaier is really the only bat in the Rays lineup that scares me. Look for the Phillies to keep him in check and ultimately notch another victory on Friday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-13-18 | Blue Jays v. Indians -127 | 8-4 | Loss | -127 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over toronto at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians can be a streaky club - we know that. They check into this contest on the heels of five straight wins and I look for them to make it six in a row against the Blue Jays on Friday. Toronto has taken advantage of a rather soft early schedule. I simply don't believe the Jays are as good as their record indicates. They suffered a 5-3 loss at the hands of the Orioles on Wednesday night and I don't see them bouncing back in this spot - even with Marcus Stroman taking the ball. Even if Stroman pitches well I'm not convinced the Jays can give him enough run support against Mike Clevinger and a solid Tribe bullpen. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-08-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -136 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -136 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Detroit at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. While I don't often like to back teams looking to avoid series sweeps, I do feel the White Sox are in good position to do so on Sunday afternoon. Chicago will hand the ball to Reynaldo Lopez, who showed some inconsistency but did battle and generally pitched well in his debut against the Blue Jays last week. Over six innings he allowed only two hits, striking out six and walking two. Mike Fiers will counter for Detroit. This will be his first start of the season following a shaky spring. After a quiet day at the dish yesterday, I'm confident the White Sox bats will come alive in this one. Note that they had scored 16 runs in their previous three games entering yesterday's contest. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-06-18 | Blue Jays v. Rangers +104 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I simply feel that there is value in fading the Blue Jays this season, especially in the role of road favorite, as they are on Friday night in Arlington. The Rangers aren't off to the start they had hoped for but they are coming off a victory in Oakland yesterday and they're catching a Blue Jays club that is dealing with some banged-up players, even if it is still very early in the season. Marco Estrada pitched well for the Jays in his season debut but he's in a tougher spot here pitching in a hitter's park in Texas. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Matt Moore didn't fare all that well in his season debut but should bounce back with an effective outing on Friday. Take Texas (10*). |
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04-04-18 | Mariners v. Giants -120 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco over Seattle at 7:15 pm et on Wednesday. Felix Hernandez surprised many, turning in a stellar first start of the season following an injury-plagued Spring Training. I expect him to come back to Earth on Wednesday, however, as he goes up against a Giants lineup that finally showed some signs of life in their home opener yesterday, even if they did fall by a 6-4 score. Giants starter Johnny Cueto was even sharper than King Felix in his first outing of the season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 1-0 victory over the Dodgers. Cueto didn't earn the 'w' in that contest, however, so he'll be motivated to pick up his first victory of the season here. The Mariners are off to a fine start this season but I'm not convinced they can keep it up. We're dealing with a fairly short price here to back a highly-motivated Giants club. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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04-03-18 | Mariners v. Giants -119 | 6-4 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Seattle at 4:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants are mired in a brutal offensive slump to open the season but all is not lost as they still managed to take two games from the Dodgers in L.A. during their opening series. San Francisco boasts a re-tooled lineup - one that will only stay down for so long. I look for the Giants to bounce back at the dish on Tuesday while starter Ty Blach takes care of the rest. The Mariners took two of three games from the Indians to open their campaign, with some terrific pitching along the way. Here, I look for them to take a step back with Marco Gonzalez taking the ball. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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04-02-18 | Rockies v. Padres +108 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Colorado at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Tough starts for both of these N.L. West clubs with the Rockies dropping two of three in Arizona and the Padres getting swept in a three-game series at home against the Brewers. I like the Padres to bounce back at Petco Park on Monday night. San Diego has high hopes for Monday's starter Bryan Mitchell, who joins the club from the Yankees. He faces a formidable challenge against a loaded Rockies lineup on Monday but I'm confident he'll perform well. Meanwhile, the Rockies will turn to Chad Bettis. He's been good, but not great, as part of the Rockies rotation and I look for him to run into some trouble against a re-tooled Padres lineup that certainly didn't live up to expectations against the Brewers to open the campaign. The Pads' are desperate for a win and they get it here. Take San Diego (10*). |
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04-02-18 | Indians -125 v. Angels | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the Indians on Monday night in Anaheim as they aim to bounce back from a tough 5-4 loss in Seattle on Sunday. No real edge on the mound in this one as the Tribe give the ball to Mike Clevinger against JC Ramirez of the Angels. Los Angeles certainly looked good in its season-opening series against the A's in Oakland but things will get a little tougher against one of the A.L.'s best clubs. We didn't see the Indians best arms out of the bullpen on Sunday (unlike on Saturday) and that fresh 'pen could prove to be the difference here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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