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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-30-16 | Alabama v. South Carolina OVER 134.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #595 - *10* Top Play OVER 134.5 in South Carolina vs Alabama @ 6 ET Saturday - South Carolina plays this game with big time revenge as less than three weeks ago the Gamecocks faced the Crimson Tide at Alabama and were held to 50 points and suffered their first loss of the season. Since that dreadful performance from the South Carolina offense, the Gamecocks have averaged 78 points per game game in their last four games. The 78 points is also the season average for the Gamecocks but the point is that South Carolina is also scoring well in conference action. The only time that the Gamecocks have been held under 69 points of offense in their 7 SEC games this season was the ugly loss at Alabama. With that said, I look for South Carolina to push very hard in this game as they look to secure a blowout win on their home floor. The reason that leads me to the over is because the Crimson Tide, under coach Avery Johnson, came into this season wanting to be a higher-scoring team. Coach Johnson wanted to make sure his team could play more of an uptempo style when needed. As expected, this has been necessary at times on the road in the SEC and the 3 Crimson Tide conference games away from home have all gone over the total. Alabama is allowing an average of 76 points per game on the SEC road and they aren't going to slow down the revenge-minded Gamecocks here. However, I do expect the Crimson Tide to do a great job of hanging with South Carolina in this one as Alabama's six losses since late November have come by a margin of 8 points or less in five of the six defeats. That means expecting a 76-68 type of game here is spot on. The over is 5-1 in South Carolina home games where they are a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and I look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Alabama's SEC road games this season. |
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01-28-16 | Charlotte v. Florida International OVER 148.5 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #721 - *10* Top Play OVER 148.5 in Florida International vs Charlotte @ 7 ET - Charlotte has an ugly record on this season but, not only have the 49ers won two straight games to build confidence, these guys can put up a ton of points in a hurry. Charlotte has averaged 85.4 points per game in their last 8 games. The problem for the 49ers is they are not particularly fond of playing defense. Charlotte is allowing 81.4 points per game on the season. That is why I like the over so much in this match-up as there is no reason that either team should be kept below 80 points in this game. The 49ers held Western Kentucky to 25% shooting from three point land but previously had allowed their last five opponents to each connect on 44.4% or better. That spells trouble as Charlotte now faces a Panthers team that loves to play at a frenetic pace and set up open looks for its potent offense. Florida International has seen 5 of their last 7 games go over the total as the Panthers have averaged 76 points per game. FIU has been shooting the ball very well during their current 7-2 winning run and the opportunity to face a Charlotte team that focuses on offense means things should be wide open for the Florida International offense once again tonight. The over is 3-1 (75%) in Panthers home games this season. The over is 14-5 in Charlotte road games where their line ranges from a pick to a +3. The over is also 17-7 in 49ers road games where the posted total is in a range of 145 to 149.5 points! |
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01-27-16 | South Florida v. Tulane OVER 126.5 | Top | 73-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #539 - *10* Top Play OVER 125.5 in Tulane vs South Florida @ 8 ET - These teams combined for 151 points when they met at South Florida two weeks ago. Sure the Bulls and Green Wave have been unimpressive this season and sure they both have low scoring averages. However, what often happens when two bad teams meet is that they just "go off" on offense as they know this is a rare "winnable game" on their schedule. What helps add value to this theory Wednesday is that South Florida is off of a confidence-building win at Houston where the Bulls "went off" for 71 points. Tulane is off of an ugly 97-75 loss at Cincinnati marking the third time in their last five games that the Green Wave have allowed not only 50% or better from the field but, also, 50% or better from three point land! Tulane is 3-1 to the over this season when the total is in a range of 120 to 129.5 points. The Green Wave also are 4-2 to the over this season when they are off of a loss in conference action. South Florida likes to push the tempo when they are facing a weak foe and that is why they are 11-5 to the over the last 3 seasons when they face a team with a losing record. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams! |
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01-24-16 | Purdue v. Iowa OVER 143.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 143.5 in Iowa vs Purdue @ 1 ET Sunday - The last time these teams met in Iowa they combined for 87 points by the half and the game totaled 159 points by the final horn. I look for a similar result on Sunday. We are getting some line value here as already this total has moved downward off of it's 145 opener. A lot of this likely has to do with the fact the teams combined for just 133 points when they met at Purdue early this month. There is plenty of support for predicting a much higher scoring game in the rematch. The Hawkeyes have continued their winning ways but the result is they are starting to relax some on the defensive end. Iowa has allowed shooting percentages of 46.3% and 48.4% in their last two games. These two games each totaled 153 points or more as the Hawkeyes offense has made up for their shortcomings on the defensive end. Iowa is averaging 81.6 points per game this season and Purdue is not far behind with 79.5 points per game. The Boilermakers have scored at least 70 points in five straight games while the Hawkeyes have scored at least 70 points in 13 straight games. I realize this is a key Big Ten battle but I just don't see other defense being able to slow down the talented playmakers these teams each possess. The over is 3-1 in Purdue games this season when they are off of a win in conference action. The over is also a long-term 30-19 in Boilermakers games when they are playing with home loss revenge. The over is 7-3 in Iowa games when they are a favorite and the over is a perfect 3-0 in Hawkeyes home games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points this season. When Iowa is in a 'running and gunning' phase they normally maintain it. The over is 21-10 the past three seasons when the Hawkeyes are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. |
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01-23-16 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 140.5 | Top | 81-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #553 - *10* Top Play OVER 140.5 in Nebraska vs Michigan - Both these teams have been scoring like crazy and neither one has been showing a particular affinity for playing a lot of stifling defense either. That said, the way to go here is the over. The Cornhuskers are 11-3 to the over this season and the Wolverines are 12-4 to the over. Both Nebraska and Michigan are a solid 5-1 (83%) to the over this season in conference match-ups. The Huskers are off of a big upset win at Michigan State on Wednesday so I don't expect them to be too focused on defense here are teams are often a little flat in terms of defensive intensity when they are off of a huge upset victory like that. The Huskers have now won 4 straight games and have shot 50% or better from the field in all four games. Nebraska has averaged 81 points per game during this hot streak and I don't expect Michigan's defense, particularly on the road, to be successful in shutting them down. The Wolverines have failed to cover 3 of their past 4 games and a lot of that has had to do with playing lackluster D. Michigan has allowed about 48% from the field in their past four games and given up an average of 76 points per game during this stretch. However, like the Huskers, the Wolverines have been scoring well and, in fact, they have scored 70 points or more in TEN straight games. In other words this game should easily get past the 140 mark today. *OVER* |
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01-17-16 | Indiana State v. Wichita State OVER 135 | Top | 62-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 135 in Wichita State vs Indiana State @ 4 ET - As you would expect, Indiana State is a large road dog here and that is certainly worth noting. When the Sycamores are a road dog of 12.5 points or more, the over has gone 21-9 the last 30 such occurrences. This includes a perfect 3-0 mark to the OVER the past three seasons combined. Also, when off of a conference game, Indiana State has gone 5-0 to the over this season. The Sycamores enter this game off of their fourth straight over as they are off of a win against Northern Iowa. Indiana State has scored at least 73 points in 7 of their last 8 games. The Sycamores are visiting a Wichita State team that has also been red hot on offense and, hence, the big play for me on the over Sunday afternoon. The Shockers have won 6 straight games and Wichita State has averaged 80 points per game in these six games! Overall, the over is 5-2 in the Shockers last 7 games and this match-up of two red-hot teams should feature plenty of success on the offensive end as each team is loaded with confidence right now. The last time these teams met the game stayed under the total but 7 of the 9 prior meetings between these teams resulted in overs and, the way these teams are playing right now, it should be a very entertaining and high-scoring affair at Wichita State Sunday afternoon. *10* Top Play OVER! |
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01-16-16 | Notre Dame v. Duke OVER 153.5 | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #545 - *8* OVER 153.5 in Duke vs Notre Dame @ 2 ET - Revenge game for Duke as they lost to Notre Dame on a neutral floor last March. Now the Blue Devils are on their home floor hosting the Fighting Irish and I look for a ton of points from a revenge-seeking Duke team. The Blue Devils scored 90 against Notre Dame the last time they hosted them. However, the Fighting Irish won't go down without a fight here and they have averaged 72.5 points per game in their last four games against the Blue Devils. The Fighting Irish are averaging 78 points per game this season but Duke is averaging 86.6 points per game and this should be a wild one Saturday afternoon. In road games with a posted total between 150 and 154.5 points the over is 11-5 in Notre Dame games. Also, the past three seasons combined, the over is 15-9 in Fighting Irish games when they are off of a win against a conference foe. Duke comes into this game off of a loss so they will be looking to get out and run as they seek to win this game huge. Couple that with the revenge factor from the loss  to ND last March and you have the makings of a wild game here. Duke's games have gone over in 9 of the 15 they were favorites in this season. Also, the Blue Devils have a long-term trend of 92-62 to the over in Saturday games. Look for another Saturday game in Durham to feature plenty of excitement with tons of offense as Notre Dame's potent offense certainly is capable of hanging tight with Duke throughout in this one. |
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