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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-21-17 | Tennessee State v. Purdue OVER 133.5 | 48-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Eve Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #553 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Tennessee State Tigers @ 6 ET - The Boilermakers are averaging 85.6 points per game this season and they will dictate the pace in this one. We get some added value here because Tennessee State is off of an ultra low scoring game. The Tigers lost a heart-breaker 47-46 to Texas on Monday. The Boilermakers are off of a big win versus Butler Saturday. After a huge effort from each of these teams on the defensive end in their most recent games, they may not have a lot left in the tank for Thursday's game in terms of defensive intensity. After all, proper defense takes a lot of effort and execution and the Boilermakers and Tigers are also looking ahead to their nice Christmas break that follows this game. Of course you can tell by the big line on this one that Purdue should win easily and I feel that sets this one up well to be a high-scoring match-up as both teams just run and gun to wrap things up before the break. The Boilermakers have had just 3 unders in their last 10 games. 8* OVER the total in Purdue |
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12-21-17 | Alabama State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 146 | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #541 Thursday 10* OVER the total in Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Alabama State Hornets @ 3:30 ET - The Hornets are one of the weaker teams in D-1 basketball. There is no doubt about that as they are winless on the season and also projected to finish near the bottom of the standings in the Southwestern Athletic Conference which is one of the weaker conferences in the nation. With that said, Alabama State does like to run and gun. It is the nature of their offense and was the game plan of head coach Lewis Jackson coming into this season. The problem with that is the Hornets end up weak on defense and they've allowed 87.6 points per game this season. No doubt the Bulldogs are going to take advantage and put up a ton of points in this one. However, despite being a 20-point dog here, don't be surprised if the Hornets but up a lot of points too. I am expecting a 90-70 type game here. Alabama State comes into this game with some added confidence by virtue of scoring 80 points on 48% shooting (including 39% from three point land) in their game against Winthrop Saturday. Louisiana Tech is off of a loss to Texas that was their lowest scoring game of the season. The Bulldogs will be ready to respond here and put up a ton of points against a weak defensive team. The over is 5-1 in Hornets games with a posted total in the 140s and 5-0 in Alabama State's games against teams with a winning record. The over is a perfect 3-0 when Louisiana Tech is a neutral court favorite of 12.5 points or more. That means we have a combined 8-0 spot favoring the over in this one. Also, the Bulldogs are 9-4 to the over in their games against teams that allow 77 points or more per game on average. At the Convocation Center in New Orleans, look for this one to fly over the total. 10* OVER the total in Louisiana Tech |
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12-19-17 | Marshall v. Xavier OVER 175 | 77-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Xavier Musketeers vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6:30 ET - I am well aware of the injury situation with J.P. Macura and Kaiser Gates for Xavier. The fact is that the Musketeers have plenty of depth and I look for this one to be a shootout. Marshall is a tough team to defend against and the Thundering Herd are averaging 90.2 points per game this season. Xavier is off of a dismal effort versus East Tennessee State where the Musketeers had to rally from 22 down for a last second win. Even though the Musketeers only scored 68 in that game, they are still averaging 88.4 points per game on the season. Also, the over was 7-2 in Xavier's games this season prior to that under. The over is 3-1 in Marshall's road games this season and also on a 23-10 run the past 2+ seasons. Also, in games with a posted total of 170 points or more, the Thundering Herd have gone 16-8 to the over so don't let the big number scare you. Marshall is also 28-14 to the over when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Xavier is 23-14 to the over in home games including 5-2 this season. Also, the Musketeers are 6-2 to the over this season when facing a team with a winning record. 8* OVER the total in Xavier |
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12-18-17 | Idaho v. Western Michigan OVER 139.5 | 82-52 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #743 Monday 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan Broncos vs Idaho Vandals @ 7 ET - These are two quality teams that have plenty of experienced players and that means a ton of confidence in terms of ability to put up big points. The Broncos certainly will have fresh legs as they've been off since the 9th. The Vandals got a nice tune up with a win over Simon Fraser University Friday. Idaho was totally flat in the first half but responded with 43 points in the 2nd half and the Vandals were likely already looking ahead to this game. Idaho will carry momentum right into this game but Western Michigan is a tough team that can push the pace and I look for a great tempo to this game. Tempo of course is a key to the over as well as solid shooting and the Vandals have knocked down 40.4% of their three pointers this season. The Broncos have a solid 36.3% shooting percentage from beyond the arc and they're averaging 78 points per game this season while Idaho is averaging 73.2 per game. Western Michigan is 3-0 to the over when playing with 7 or more days of rest between games. The Broncos are a long-term 18-7 to the over in home games. In non-conference games, Western Michigan is 14-9 to the over. In December games, it is an 8-3 run to the over for the Broncos. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan |
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12-17-17 | UC-Santa Barbara v. USC OVER 148.5 | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
PAC-12 Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #821 Sunday 8* OVER the total in USC Trojans vs UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos @ 8 ET - New Gauchos coach Joe Pasternack admitted before the season that he wasn't sure if Santa Barbara had the personnel on hand to run the type of defense he wanted to. Certainly the transition is going to take time and the early evidence is that the D has a long way to go. The over is 6-3 this season in all of the Gauchos games and that includes 5-1 in UCSB games with a posted total in the 140s. Against quality opponents the UC-Santa Barbara defense has certainly proven vulnerable. However, the key to some early season success has been offensive production that is averaging 76.7 points per game this season. The Gauchos are shooting 47% from the field and 39% from three point land. The Trojans overall numbers on offense on the season don't look ultra impressive but, keep in mind, they had two tough games against SMU and Texas A & M where points were hard to come by. That certainly won't be an issue against a UCSB team that will struggle to guard them! That said, USC averaged 84.2 points per game in their other 6 games this season. Last year these teams combined for 168 points. The over is 6-3 when Southern Cal is off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The over is 12-6 when UC-Santa Barbara is a road dog of 12.5 points or more. 8* OVER the total in USC |
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12-12-17 | Michigan v. Texas OVER 129.5 | Top | 59-52 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
ESPN Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #529 Tuesday 10* OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Michigan Wolverines @ 9 ET - The Longhorns are off of a huge win versus Virginia Commonwealth. Why was the win over the Rams so big? Because that is where head coach Shaka Smart was from 2009 to 2015 and he and the Horns wanted that game badly. It was a dog-fight to the finish as VCU rallied in the 2nd half after being down big. Had the Horns lost the game it might have left them a little hungrier for this one. However, after that big effort on the defensive end, and hanging on to beat the Rams, I expect the Wolverines to put up plenty on a still-celebrating UT team tonight. The difference though will be that the Longhorns are at home and certainly capable of better shooting and up bigger points when they are at home at the Frank Erwin Center in Austin. The over is a long-term 16-6 when the Wolverines are a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Overall, in recent seasons, Michigan is 18-6 to the over in all road games. The Longhorns are averaging 78.2 points per game this season. The Wolverines are averaging 75.5 points per game this season. I know each team has some solid defensive numbers too but the UT defense will be somewhat sub-par after the huge effort against the Rams and then the long lay-off. Also, the Wolverines have allowed 69 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games and have allowed 73.7 points per game in their 3 true road games this season. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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12-11-17 | Florida International v. South Florida OVER 124.5 | 65-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Monday 8* OVER the total in South Florida Bulls vs Florida International Panthers @ 7 ET - Both of these teams lost a lot of key players from last season. Making matters worse for USF is that they have a new coach plus have already lost a couple of key players they had high hopes for this season because one was one of their few key returnees and another was their most highly touted freshman. With the loss of Troy Holston and David Collins indefinitely with knee injuries, the Bulls are even having to go through more of an adjustment phase than originally projected. As for FIU, they lost all 5 starters from last season. The reason this helps with an over is that neither team is particularly sound in terms of solid team defense in terms of the proper switches and rotations required to be a strong defensive unit. This is a low total and South Florida is actually 11-0 to the over in games with a posted total in the 120s the past two seasons. Florida International is 24-13 to the over as an underdog. Also, the Panthers are off of a rare game where they allowed less than 61 points. That holds significance here as the over is 5-2 when FIU is off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. 8* OVER the total in South Florida |
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12-10-17 | Gonzaga v. Washington OVER 155 | Top | 97-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Dominator Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #527 Sunday 10* OVER the total in Washington Huskies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 8 ET - The Huskies are off of their huge upset win versus Kansas. It's hard to worry too much about defense when you just beat one of the top teams in the country and you're offense has not been held below 70 points in your first 9 games of the season. Simply put, the Huskies are a very confident team right now. That is a key here as they feel they can score with (keep up with) Gonzaga in this big regional rivalry. Look for the Huskies to be on the attack early and often in this game. The trouble for Washington is they catch the Bulldogs off of a bad loss to Villanova. It was the first time this season that Gonzaga has been held to less than 76 points in a game. With the Bulldogs averaging 90.6 points per game and the Huskies averaging 80.6 points per game, I feel we're getting some solid line value here with this total in the mid-150s. When the Bulldogs are off of a bad game they generally respond with their offense. That is why the over is 4-0 when Gonzaga is off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Also, Washington is 3-1 to the over this season as an underdog and the Huskies are hosting a Bulldogs team that has gone over the total in 4 straight games. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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12-09-17 | Minnesota v. Arkansas OVER 165 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Saturday 10* OVER the total in Arkansas Razorbacks vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 6:45 ET - This is one of the biggest totals on the board Saturday but the big number is absolutely justified. The Golden Gophers are coming off of an ugly loss where they were held to just 32.4% from the field. Minnesota will be ready to respond here. Last year's match-up with Arkansas so the Gophers score at least 42 points in each half while the Razorbacks scored 46 points in the 2nd half after a dismal first half performance. This season, playing at home and seeking revenge, Arkansas will hit the floor firing on all cylinders proving to be very much unlike last year's dismal first half performance at Minnesota. As a result (and as you can see by the spread of just 3.5 points on this game) look for a close game all the way through with these teams trading buckets. Also, speaking of trading baskets, both these teams have solid outside shooting capability and have been hitting a high percentage of their threes on the season. The Razorbacks are hitting 40% of their three pointers and the Golden Gophers are hitting 37% from beyond the arc this season. The fact Minny has allowed 38% shooting from downtown and that the Hogs are allowing 75 points per game tells you why you can expect this one to turn into an absolute shootout! The Golden Gophers loss at Nebraska stayed under the total but they previously were 7-1 to the over this season! The Razorbacks are 4-2 to the over as a favorite this season and 5-2 to the over as a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points the past 2 seasons. Each of these teams is averaging 87 points per game this season so, again, don't let the big O/U here scare you! These teams are likely to get close to 180 points! 10* OVER the total in Arkansas |
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12-05-17 | Evansville v. Bowling Green OVER 141.5 | 91-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CBB Game #707 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Bowling Green Falcons vs Evansville Purple Aces @ 7 ET - The Aces games with posted totals this season - all 5 - have stayed UNDER the total. However, the reason this total is quite lofty is certainly no mistake. Evansville got their confidence back with a 98-56 win over a smaller school Saturday. The Purple Aces took advantage of facing the nearby Oakland City University Mighty Oaks and Evansville certainly got their shooting stroke back. That will do wonders for them here at Bowling Green and they're facing a Falcons team that love to play uptempo fast-paced games. The AVERAGE score of a Falcons game this season is 167 points and that is why I feel we're getting phenomenal line value here with the truly (considering BG's numbers) rather low total posted on this game. The over is 7-4 in Evansville's games against the MAC and 7-2 in their Tuesday games. The over is 17-8 when Bowling Green is a home fave in range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the Falcons are 9-4 to the over when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. 8* OVER the total in Bowling Green |
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12-03-17 | Maryland v. Illinois OVER 145 | 92-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Sunday 8* OVER the total in Illinois Illini vs Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The Illini are off of an OT loss that stayed under the total despite overtime. However, there were only 14 points total scored in OT and Illinois only had 5 of those. That said, the Illini are averaging 83.75 points per game this season even when you remove the OT points from Friday's game. The Terrapins are averaging 77 points per game on the season. With both teams playing on short rest, I look for plenty of offense in this one. With both teams coming off of tight losses, they'll push the pace to get "over the top" in this one. As you can also see from the line, we're dealing with a small number on the spread in this game. A close game late (likely!) leads to plenty of late fouling and late "scramble points" and I'll gladly take advantage of the downward move on this total that the markets have driven this morning. The over is 15-9 when the Illini are a home dog of 3 points or less. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 when Maryland is off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. 8* OVER the total in Illinois |
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11-30-17 | Notre Dame v. Michigan State UNDER 139 | 63-81 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CBB Game #512 Thursday 8* UNDER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7 ET - Both these teams have trended under this season with Notre Dame having stayed under in all 3 games with a posted total this season and Michigan State having stayed under in 3 straight games. Additionally, this situation is perfect for another under because the Spartans are off of a huge win versus North Carolina Sunday that absolutely leaves them in a flat spot here emotionally. As for the Fighting Irish, they have not played a game in over a week. That is the type of layoff that leads to fresh legs but also cold shooting as teams timing is off after long layoffs like this. The past 3 seasons combined, the Irish have stayed under all 3 times they have had a layoff of 7 or more days. The Spartans are known for slow starts to the season on offense as they've had 11 of 17 November games stay under the total the past 3 seasons combined. Look for yet another one here! 8* UNDER the total in Michigan State |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga OVER 138 | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 8* OVER the total in Gonzaga Bulldogs vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 6:05 ET - I used the over in the Gonzaga game last weekend and was dealt a tough beat to say the least. The total on the game was in the 145 range and the Bulldogs combined with Xavier for 88 points at halftime. In other words, the game was on pace for 176 points but inexplicably ended up totaling 142 points. We'll get some payback here because even though both these teams can play some defense, the real reason the Gamecocks have made it this far in the tourney is the fact that their offense has started to function at a very high level. The over is 3-1 in South Carolina's four games in the Big Dance as they've averaged scoring 82 points per game and they've shot around 48% from the field in these 4 games! Though known for defense, the Gamecocks have allowed 70 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games and they'll have their hands full with Gonzaga here. The Zags average 83 points per game on the season and, after hanging 83 points on the Musketeers, their offense is heating up again. Shooting percentages from three point land for the Bulldogs have gone from below 27% in their first two games of the tourney to 40% and 50%, respectively, in their two most recent tourney games. The over is a long-term 10-4 in Gonzaga's games against SEC competition and the Bulldogs are also 18-6 to the over in neutral court games with a posted total in the 135 to 139.5 range. As for the Gamecocks, their last 10 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game have seen 7 of the 10 result in an over. In other words, South Carolina's defense is good but, in case of strength on strength, they've been overpowered at times. Look for both teams to score very well here. 8* OVER the total in Gonzaga |
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03-28-17 | TCU v. UCF OVER 131.5 | 68-53 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Central Florida Golden Knights vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 9:30 ET - Central Florida is known for their tough defense but, in this NIT Tournament they've had the benefit of facing an Illinois team going through a coaching transition and an MVC team (Illinois State) that was very inconsistent on offense late in the season. Prior to those two wins, the Golden Knights did allow 72 points per game in their games against Colorado and SMU and I would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. TCU comes into this one rolling with confidence as they've scored 82 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games and that included tight wins over Iowa and Kansas. The issue for the Horned Frogs is their defense and I expect UCF to take advantage. Texas Christian, prior to their 82-68 win over Richmond, had allowed 82 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Also, TCU did allow the Spiders to connect on 49% of their shots from the field and, prior to that game, the Frogs had allowed 46.7% or better from three point land in three straight games. In the month of March the Golden Knights have shot the ball very well from beyond the arc so don't be surprised if that becomes a factor in this one as well. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 in TCU's neutral court games this season in what should be a very entertaining match-up at Madison Square Garden in NY, NY tonight. 8* OVER the total in Central Florida |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina UNDER 160 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 5:05 ET - When these teams met in December it was a highly anticipated match-up of two ranked foes that each had one loss on the season. That said, the impetus was not there for playing a lot of defense. Sure, both teams wanted to win but it wasn't a situation where the loser goes home and the winner goes to the Final Four and has a shot at the national championship. That said, look for this game to play out much differently than the 103-100 wild game that was played at a neutral site earlier this season. The Wildcats have really turned up the defensive intensity to get to this point but did not fare well defensively against UCLA and yet still held the high-flying Bruins to 75 points. Prior to that game, Kentucky had allowed 67 points or less in 9 of their last 12 games. Also, the Wildcats had held 7 of their 9 prior opponents under 41.9% from the field. The under is now 8-1 in Kentucky's last 9 NCAA Tournament games and the Wildcats are on an incredible streak this season of 9 straight unders when facing a team that averages 77 points or more per game! Long-term, when UK is a neutral court dog of 3 points or less, the under has gone 10-2. This will be a fierce battle with a lot more defense than was seen when these teams met 3 months ago! North Carolina, of course, wants revenge for that defeat and the under is 3-1 this season when UNC is playing with road loss revenge. Also, when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more, the Tar Heels have gone 16-7 to the under this season. Before allowing 80 points to Butler, the Heels had held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 67 points or less. Both teams will be feeling the pressure here and shots won't be falling nearly as easily as they did in the first meeting this season. The first game was about bragging rights while this match-up is about a shot at a national championship. You'll see the difference on the floor in this one and I see this game landing in the 140s which makes this total (opened up at 156 but now in the 160 range) a great value for us. 10* UNDER the total in North Carolina |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga OVER 145 | 59-83 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 8* OVER the total in Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6:05 ET - The Bulldogs scored just 61 points in their win over West Virginia Thursday. However, Gonzaga is known for following up a poor effort on offense with a very strong one. In the regular season, when the Bulldogs were off of a game where they scored 74 points or less (happened 7 times) they responded by averaging 93.3 points per game in their next game. After facing teams known for playing some solid defense (West Virginia and Northwestern) plus sleep-walking through the first half of their tourney opener (because they were not enthused about facing South Dakota State), Xavier looks like the perfect opponent for Gonzaga to put on a clinic on offense! The Musketeers are not known for their defense but, on the thing is for certain, this team has been red hot on offense for weeks! Xavier has shot over 48% from the field in 7 of their last 9 games and that includes knocking down at least 50% from the field in all 3 games so far in the Big Dance. The Musketeers are 23-14 to the over in Saturday games the last 3 seasons combined and the Bulldogs are on a long-term run of 28-16 to the over in NCAA tournament games! After facing the wrong opponents for "run and gun" on offense look for this match-up with Xavier to turn into a track meet with plenty of offense! 8* OVER the total in Gonzaga |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor OVER 135 | 70-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Insiders Edge - Rickenbach CBB Friday 8* OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 7:25 ET - South Carolina has a strong reputation for its defense but they over is now 11-5 in the Gamecocks last 16 games and truly they have faded as the season has gone on. South Carolina has allowed an average of 73 points per game in their last 4 games and the Gamecocks have allowed 71 points or more in 9 of their last 12 games. On the other end of the floor South Carolina has been red hot in the Big Dance with 90.5 points per game scored so far in the tourney. I don't think Baylor is going to have a lot of success in shutting them down. The Bears have seen each of their last 4 games go over the total as they've allowed an average of 71 points per game. Baylor has been shooting red hot over their last 6 games (5 went over) and they've also knocked down over 40% of their three pointers in 3 of their last 4 games. The over is 5-2 in Baylor's last 7 games against SEC competition. As for South Carolina, the over is 10-5 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 in the Bears last 5 games as the high-scoring trending continues for both of these teams. The Gamecocks are riding high after the upset of Duke and have a ton of confidence right now but Baylor won't go away quietly and has plenty of big scoring options. The result should be a back and forth high-scoring affair played at a good pace. 8* OVER the total in Baylor |
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03-20-17 | Akron v. Texas-Arlington OVER 153 | Top | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in UT-Arlington Mavericks vs Akron Zips @ 8 ET - UT-Arlington is 13-0 in home games this season and averages a ridiculous 85 points per game! However, this will be far from a "cakewalk" for the Mavericks because the Zips are a high-scoring team that shoots surprisingly well on the road. Akron is known for their 3-point shooting prowess and, even on the road, knock down 38.3% of their three pointers. UT-Arlington won't hesitate to push the pace at the home and this one sets up well to be another shootout. The Mavericks are off of a 105-89 win at BYU and are sky-high with confidence right now. The Zips are on a 6-2 run to the over in true road games and a fantastic 24-12 to the over in all road games the past 3 seasons combined. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points Akron has gone 4-1 to the over. Overall, the over is 20-11 in UT-Arlington home games the past 3 seasons combined. Also, in home games where the posted total is between 150 and 154.5 points the over has gone a perfect 4-0. The Zips are 20-5 their last 25 games and, in a match-up featuring two very hot teams, both off of upset wins, the teams are brimming with confidence and the focus will be on the offensive end and less about intense defense. This is what happens when teams are rolling and confident like these two teams are. 10* OVER the total in UT-Arlington |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon OVER 140 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oregon Ducks vs Rhode Island Rams @ 7:10 ET - The Ducks were already on a strong run to the over but the value in overs involving Oregon is even stronger since the loss of key defensive post presence Chris Boucher. The Ducks game versus Iona flew over the total and, prior to that, Oregon also allowed 58% shooting from the field against Arizona. It has been 3 straight overs for the Ducks and the over is 8-1 in their last 9 games. The Rams are coming off of a result that also bodes well for another over here. Rhode Island put up 84 points on Creighton despite only connecting on 19% of their three pointers! That says a lot right there! The Bluejays put up 72 points on the Rams despite shooting a modest 40% from the field and 30% from three point land. With Boucher out for the Ducks, Rhode Island will enjoy success in the paint against Oregon but I certainly don't expect the Rams defense to be able to slow down the high-flying Ducks as they've scored at least 80 in 4 of their last 5 games. The over is 4-2 in Rams neutral site games this season and the over is 9-5 in the Ducks last 14 games against teams with a winning record. The Rams are averaging 74 points per game this season and the Ducks are averaging 80 points per game on the season but this total is being held down because each team has some decent defensive stats. But the key is the Boucher injury for Oregon and the fact that the Rams defense is not use to facing the elite level of offensive playmakers that a team like the Ducks brings to this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Oregon |
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03-17-17 | Wichita State v. Dayton OVER 143.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dayton Flyers vs Wichita State Shockers @ 7:10 ET - Certainly I have plenty of respect for both of these defenses but both of these teams have potent offenses with veteran leadership and both clubs shoot the 3-ball extremely well. That said, and with a drop on the total from the 148 range to the 143 range, I won't hesitate to step in large on the over in this one. The Flyers finished the season with back to back losses and much of that had to do with struggles on defense. In fact, Dayton has now allowed at least 45.5% from the field in 3 of its last 4 games. Also, the Flyers have given up 70 points or more in 8 of their last 9 games. Wichita State has won 15 straight games and they average 82 points per game on the season. The Shockers, before their 71-51 win over Illinois State, had scored 77 points or more in 12 of their 14 prior games. Wichita State has knocked down at least 42% of their threes in 7 of their last 9 games. The Flyers have hit at least 40% of their threes in 8 straight games! This is hot shooting folks that is simply not normal! That's why I'll gladly fade the line move here because I also expect this game to be close enough late that there will be plenty of opportunity for "scramble points" with late threes from the team trailing and plenty of free throws from the team in the lead. The over was 11-0 in Dayton's 11 games prior to getting bounced out of the A-10 tourney. The over was 4-1 in Wichita State's last 5 regular season games prior to the MVC tourney. The over is 12-6 long-term when the Shockers enter a game off of 7 or more days of rest. As for the Flyers, the over is 4-2 this season in games where they were an underdog. 10* OVER the total in Dayton |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State v. Michigan OVER 153.5 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Friday 8* OVER the total in Michigan Wolverines vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 12:15 ET - Michigan comes into the tourney with a ton of confidence after what they accomplished in the Big Ten tourney. Oklahoma State can put up points with anyone though and that is why a shootout should be expected here. The Cowboys defense has been shredded for 89 points per game in their last 3 games and that led to a 3-0 run to the over for OSU heading into the Big Dance. Oklahoma State is 4-0 to the over in neutral site games this season. Michigan wrapped up the season (including Big Ten Tourney where they took home the Championship) by going 8-1 to the over. The Wolverines shot at least 50% from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. The Cowboys scored at least 80 points in 14 of their last 17 games! Both teams shoot the 3-ball very well with Oklahoma State at 40% on the season and Michigan at 38% from downtown on the season. Surprisingly, the Wolverines allowed only 57 points in their Big Ten Championship victory over Wisconsin but that had more to do with a struggling Badger offense than it did with Michigan's defense. It is noteworthy because the over is 22-9 the L3 seasons combined when Michigan is off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Also, the Wolverines are 17-6 to the over in games where they are a favorite. Oklahoma State's "average game" this season totals 162 points and we should see at least that here as I have a ton of respect for the Cowboys scoring abilities but also know that the Wolverines are on fire right now and loaded with confidence and their offensive production will not be stopped. 8* OVER in Michigan |
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03-16-17 | Florida Gulf Coast v. Florida State OVER 147 | Top | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles @ 9:20 ET - Look for plenty of fireworks on offense in this one. Florida Gulf Coast is averaging 79.4 points per game this season but they won't be able to stop a Florida State offense that averages 82.5 points per game. This is the 3rd trip to the Big Dance in the last 5 years for the Eagles and they made a lot of noise as "Dunk City" a few years back. Though this team has changed its mantra from that time they are still a team that can put up a ton of points but with a defense that will struggle against ACC level competition. The over is 4-1 in the Eagles NCAA Tourney games and, long-term the over is 12-6 in Florida Gulf Coast games in non-conference action. The over is 3-1 the last 3 seasons in Noles games where they are a neutral court favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. FSU enters this game on a 5-game under streak but they have allowed 71 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games. The Eagles offense has been hot (81 points per game) in their last 7 games so I would not be surprised to see an FSU win in the 87-75 ranger here which is a full 15 points above the current total posted on this game. The over is 6-2 this season in games where Florida State was favored by 11 points or more! The Seminoles averaged scoring 96.6 points per game in those 8 games. They'll score plenty here as well but the athleticism of Florida Gulf Coast will allow them to score plenty as well in a match-up that should play out as a very fast-paced affair. 10* OVER the total in Florida State |
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03-12-17 | Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 127.5 | 71-56 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
CBS Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #889 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Michigan Wolverines @ 3 ET - The Wolverines have been red hot but certainly they have not been getting the job done on the defensive end. It's been the Michigan offense that has led the way as the defense has actually allowed 46% or more from the field in 3 straight games and 5 of their last 6. Couple that with the fact that the Wolverines will be playing for the 4th straight day and that Wisconsin has scored an average of 73 points per game so far in his tourney and you have the right ingredients for a high-scoring match-up here. The Wolverines have been so hot on offense (81.5 points per game last 4 games) that even a top defense like the Badgers is unlikely to shutdown the high scoring. Also, don't be surprised if the Badgers play this with a little faster pacing than what you generally see in Wisconsin games because they know they have the fresher legs in this match-up. Not only is Michigan off of a tight battle with Minnesota that was their 3rd game in 3 days, the Badgers had an easy rout of Northwestern yesterday that allowed them to use more of their bench. As a result, Wiscy has the fresh legs here that will have them pushing the pace a little more as they look to wear down Michigan. The Wolverines are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 games. The Badgers are 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games played away from Madison. We get the benefit of a low total here because the Badgers are involved and I see huge value here based on Michigan's recent surge and the fact they did knock down 19 of 44 threes in the two regular season games with Wiscy. Hot shooting, good pacing, confident shooters, it all adds up to what should be a solid over in the Big Ten championship game. 8* OVER the total in Wisconsin |
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03-11-17 | Albany NY v. Vermont OVER 130 | 53-56 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #763 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Vermont Catamounts vs Albany Great Danes @ 11 AM ET - This is the America East Championship and this year's match-up features long-time rivals both playing great ball. The key to the value here, in my opinion, is that the Great Danes shot very well at Vermont two weeks ago but lost 62-50. Look for them to push the pace more as they know the "slow game" attack certainly didn't work out well for them against the Catamounts. Albany has put up 81 points per game in their last 3 games as they continue to shoot the ball well. Vermont has made a lot of noise with only allowing 41 points per game in the America East playoffs thusfar. But this 3rd and final match-up will prove to be a much tougher test for their defense as they face a red hot offense. The key for the Catamounts to prevail though is their own red hot shooting as they have shot the ball very well and averaged 80 points per game in their two post-season games so far. Both of these teams shoot the ball well and with the total at 130, I see value in a game that is going to play out at a much faster pace than the two regular season meetings. If it wasn't, why would the odds makers hang a 130 on a match-up that averaged only 110.5 points per game in the two regular season meetings? Precisely! Jump on this and look for both teams to continue their hot shooting and certainly not to be looking to milk the clock. The Catamounts (winners of 20 straight) are confident at home and the Great Danes (winners of 7 of 8) know they must change their approach from the meeting here two weeks ago. 8* OVER the total in Vermont very early Saturday |
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03-10-17 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 155.5 | Top | 93-83 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #570 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - Duke's win over Louisville yesterday flew over the total but the Blue Devils now face a North Carolina team fully capable of playing strong defense just as they displayed in yesterday's win versus a solid Miami team. Many were probably surprised to see this total open up at 155 given the fact that this season's match-ups involving Duke and UNC averaged 168.5 points per game. So, of course, the odds makers made a big mistake here didn't they? I jest of course because long-time followers know how I feel about odds makers and "mistakes" as more often than not it is the market movement that proves to be a mistake. In this case this total has already made an upward move this morning and the value was already with the under in my opinion because this ACC Tourney battle should feature plenty of solid defense. Duke/UNC is always a big match-up but especially when meeting in the tourney and that is going to make for a very intense game where getting defensive stops will carry more emphasis than usual for each team. Before the win versus the Hurricanes yesterday, the Blue Devils had held 5 of their last 5 opponents to 41.5% or less from the field. Duke is 15-7 to the under the past 3 seasons combined in all tournament games. The Blue Devils also are 8-4 to the under when revenging a road loss and 14-8 to the under when playing with 1 day or less of rest. The Tar Heels are 5-2 to the under this season when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. Also, the under is 17-8 this season in UNC's games against teams with a winning record. 10* Top Play UNDER the total in North Carolina Friday  |
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03-09-17 | Seton Hall v. Marquette OVER 150.5 | Top | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Total Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #729 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Marquette Golden Eagles vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 2:30 ET - After opening up at a 153.5 this total has dropped down to a 150.5 as of early gameday morning. This should prove to be another nice situation where there is value in fading the move. The Golden Eagles are known for hot shooting and big offensive production with very little attention paid to defense or rebounding. The result is some very high-scoring games and, even though the Pirates certainly pay more attention to defense, Seton Hall's recent results show trending that is likely to result in an easy over here. The Pirates, prior to their 70-64 season-ending win at Butler, had allowed 5 straight opponents to hit 46% or better from the field! Seton Hall, in this five-game stretch before wins over Georgetown and Butler to wrap up the regular season, had allowed 78 points or more in 4 of 5 games! The Pirates have been shooting the ball well (46% or better) in 5 of their last 6 games and it is unlikely the Golden Eagles will be able to slow them down. Marquette has allowed opponents to hit 47% or better in 10 of their last 13 games. Of course the key for the Golden Eagles is an offense that is again on fire from three point land with shooting a ridiculous 50% or better from beyond the arc in each of their last 4 games to wrap up the regular season. The past three seasons combined, the over is 16-9 when Marquette is off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and the Golden Eagles are also on a 9-3 run to the over in tournament games. Seton Hall is on a 7-3 run to the over in March games and the Pirates went 4-1 to the over this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for another wild one here! 10* OVER the total in Marquette (game played at MSG in NY) |
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03-08-17 | Georgetown v. St. John's OVER 153 | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #569 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St John's Red Storm vs Georgetown Hoyas @ 7 ET - The Red Storm get the advantage of playing this Big East tourney game on their home floor. That should certainly help the St John's offense and they do have a number of dangerous scoring options but the problem for the Red Storm continues to be a lack of commitment on the defensive end. This plagued them constantly and, no matter how much they talk about it, the players just don't buy into it. St John's has potent weapons on offense but no real stoppers on the other end of the floor. This is part of the reason that the Red Storm have allowed opponents to shoot 51% or better in 5 of their last 7 games. St John's has allowed an average of 88 points in those 7 games and that included an 86-80 home loss to the Hoyas two weeks ago. Georgetown shot very well in that game and, surprisingly, has shot 49% or better from the field in 5 of their last 7 road games and they shot at least 53% from the field in 4 of those 5 games. As a result, the Hoyas come into this game confident and willing to push the pace and the Red Storm certainly love that style, particularly when on their home floor. The result should be a rather easy over in this one. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season in Hoyas games where they are facing a team that allows an average of 77 points or more per game on the season. The Red Storm, over the past 3 seasons combined, are 5-2 to the over in March games and also 6-3 to the over in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for more of the same in this one. 10* OVER the total in St John's |
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03-07-17 | NC State v. Clemson OVER 151 | 61-75 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #707 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Clemson Tigers vs NC State Wolfpack @ Noon ET - The first numbers that popped up on this total were in the 156 range and now the O/U has dipped down to almost 150 in some spots as of about 4 hours before tipoff. This line move has opened up some added value in a game that is not likely to feature a lot of defense. The Wolfpack are playing with revenge from a road loss at Clemson last week. That is significant here because NC State has gone 5-2 to the over this season (and 14-5 to the over the past 3 seasons combined) when they are playing with road loss revenge. Also, the over is 9-4 in Wolfpack games played on a neutral floor the past 3 seasons combined and NC State is 8-4 to the over this season in games where the posted O/U is in the 150s. In other words, when the total looks a little on the high side it has proven to be justified in being a big number more often than not. The over is 5-2 in Tigers tournament games the past 3 seasons combined and, this season, Clemson is 3-0 to the over when off of a win in conference action. The Tigers are averaging 75 points per game on the season and the Wolfpack give up 80 per game on average but also have solid production on the other end of the floor where NC State is averaging 78 points per game. Both teams have been very poor on the defensive end down the stretch run of the season and I expect more of the same in the ACC Conference Tourney opener early Tuesday. 8* OVER the total in Clemson |
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03-06-17 | Central Michigan v. Kent State OVER 167 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kent State Golden Flashes vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 7 ET - The first total that popped up on this game yesterday was 170.5 and, of course, alarm bells went off for some as a result. Sure enough, the early action on this total has moved it down to a 167 and I can completely understand the move as the total does seem big compared to the norm. The key here is that Central Michigan is not the norm as they average 88 points per game but also allow an average of 87 points per game. In the only regular season meeting between these teams, also here at Kent State, the teams went to OT tied at 83. That said, without OT, that game would not have gotten past the current O/U posted on this rematch. However, what I have seen from the Chippewas in recent games is an even further disregard for defense than the way they were playing earlier in the season. The Chips have allowed 5 straight teams to hit at least 50% from the field against them. In their last 6 games, Central Michigan has allowed an average of 96.2 points per game! The Golden Flashes should indeed score at will in this game. Yes, some of Kent State's recent results would cause concern about their scoring abilities but they faced some tougher teams (and certainly tougher defenses) than what they will face in the form of Central Michigan tonight. The over is 13-4 in Chippewas games where they were an underdog this season. Also, 7 of the Chips last 8 games against teams with a winning record have gone over the total! As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, the Golden Flashes are 4-1 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in Kent State Monday |
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03-04-17 | Indiana v. Ohio State OVER 147 | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #519 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Indiana Hoosiers @ Noon ET - Even though these teams are mired near the bottom of the Big Ten standings, Ohio State will bring a strong effort on Senior Day and the Buckeyes certainly will not let up as they look to avenge an 85-60 loss at Indiana last season. As for the Hoosiers, they are averaging 80 points per game this season but defense is generally an afterthought. In games with a posted total in the 140s, the over is 10-5 in Hoosiers games this season. As a road dog of 3 points or less, Indiana has a long-term mark of 14-7 to the over. For the Buckeyes, as a home fave of 3 points or less, the over is 4-1 this season. The over is 14-6 in Ohio State's games against teams with a winning record this season. Indiana is allowing 80 points per game on the road this season but the Hoosiers to have plenty of scorers and as a result, both of these teams have a great shot at getting to 80 points in this game. 8* OVER the total in Ohio State |
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03-01-17 | Marquette v. Xavier OVER 153 | Top | 95-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #551 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Xavier Musketeers vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 9 ET - The Golden Eagles are one of the top three point shooting teams in the nation. The Musketeers have been going through a tough losing stretch where porous defense has had a lot to do with it. Speaking of porous defense, Marquette is allowing 81 points per game and 50% free throw shooting on the road in Big East games this season. The Golden Eagles won't be able to slow down a revenge-minded Xavier team tonight in what his their home finale but I also expect Marquette to put up a ton of points on the Musketeers. The Golden Eagles have averaged 79 points per game in the last 3 meetings between the teams but Xavier has scored 90 points in each of the last two meetings not played in Milwaukee. The edges here toward the over are large, including Marquette going 3-1 to the over this season (and 10-5 to the over long-term) in road games with a posted total between 150 and 154.5 points. Also, the Musketeers are 4-2 to the over in a home game with a posted total in that same range. Additionally, when playing with road loss revenge, Xavier is on a 10-6 run to the over. The Musketeers are averaging 78 points per game at home this season and the Golden Eagles are averaging 79 points per game on the road this season. Given the situation and the fact Marquette is off of an under despite shooting very high percentages for a 2nd straight game, look for a wild one here to easily get in the 160s as we grab the value on a total that has been driven down some early today. 10* OVER the total in Xavier Wednesday night |
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02-26-17 | La Salle v. Massachusetts OVER 153 | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #817 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Massachusetts Minutemen vs LaSalle Explorers @ 1 ET - The Explorers are off of an awful shooting effort in a 67-56 loss vs Rhode Island. LaSalle shot only 35.8% from the field in that game. That is only the 5th time this season that the Explorers have been held to 40% or less from the field. The first 4 times it happened, LaSalle followed it up by averaging 80 points per game in their very next game. One of those game was an 88-76 win versus the Minutemen earlier this season. With that game totaling 164 points and with Massachusetts also in a bounce back spot in terms of production on offense, I see a lot of value with the over here. First numbers on this total were released yesterday at 155.5 and the total has already dropped to a 153 as of early Sunday morning. UMass games have gone over the total in 8 of their last 9 games as the Minutemen aren't known for playing defense. That said, after shooting just 40.3% from the field in their loss at George Washington, Massachusetts will be ready to bounce back here at home in a game that should be played without much defensive intensity given these teams current positioning in the Atlantic 10 standings. The over is 11-4 in Minutemen conference games this season. As for the Explorers, the over is 14-8 in all their games this season including 5-2 in those against teams with a losing record. LaSalle shoots over 37% from three point land but they're allowing over 39% from beyond the arc. Look for a shootout in this one. 8* OVER the total in Massachusetts |
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02-25-17 | Marquette v. Providence OVER 146.5 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #595 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Providence Friars vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 4 ET - Providence is off of a big upset win at Creighton as they knocked off the Bluejays as a 7 point underdog! That could leave the Friars a little flat-footed here defensively and Marquette is certainly fully capable of lighting up sagging defenses. In fact, the Golden Eagles are averaging 82.5 points per game game to rank #1 in the Big East. The problem for Marquette is their defense is a major weakness. That is a big part of the reason they lost at home 79-78 when they hosted Providence in late January. The Friars are likely to have another strong shooting performance Saturday as this time they get the Golden Eagles at home. Providence is 9-1 to the over in their last 10 as a favorite! Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Looking even further back, 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams in Providence have gone over the total. The Friars are shooting 47.2% at home this season including 38.5% from three point land. However, Marquette is shooting 48.5% from the field on the season and, even on the road they are knocking down a fantastic rate of 41% from beyond the arc. The hot shooting Golden Eagles are 4-2 to the over this season (and 20-10 to the over the last 3 seasons) in games where their posted total is in the 140s. Marquette is full of confidence after back to back wins where they averaged 88 points per game and the hot-shooting Golden Eagles will turn this one into a shootout with a Friars team off of a huge upset win that leaves them a little flat on the defensive end after their great effort at Creighton. 10* OVER the total in Providence |
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02-25-17 | Virginia v. NC State OVER 131.5 | 70-55 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #631 Saturday 8* OVER the total in NC State Wolfpack vs Virginia Cavaliers @ Noon ET - This is NC State's home finale and they will be up for this game as they get a shot at Virginia. Even though the Cavaliers are struggling it would still be a big upset win for the Wolfpack if they can pull it off. However, the issue for NC State is they play atrocious defense. With the Cavs coming into this game off 4 straight losses (and having scored an average of just 48 points per game in their last 3), Virginia is primed for a breakout game against the worst defense in the ACC. The Wolfpack are allowing 86 points per game (and 49% shooting) in ACC action this season. Look for the Cavaliers to have a breakout game on offense but don't be surprised if the Cavs defense not at its sharpest here. Not only are the Cavaliers reeling from 4 straight losses, Virginia also has a huge match-up with North Carolina on deck. The focus here for the Cavs will be on getting a win and getting their offensive execution back on track. That said, look for this one to fly over the total as NC State has scored at least 71 points in 10 of its last 12 games. The over is 10-3 this season in Wolfpack home games! Look for another one here as the over improves to 89-51 long-term in NC State Saturday games. 8* OVER the total in NC State |
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02-23-17 | South Florida v. Tulsa OVER 137 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #537 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs South Florida Bulls @ 8 ET - The first total to come out on this game was a 140 yesterday afternoon. The total has since dropped down to a 137 and its offering up fantastic line value on the over in this match-up. The over is a perfect 4-0 all-time in this series. Also, the Golden Hurricane are 8-2 to the over as a favorite this season. This is a late season match-up involving two teams with a losing record and that tends to be a good 'recipe' for an over as defense tends to lag in games like this. Following true to that theory, Tulsa is 3-0 to the over this season (and 11-3 to the over the past 3 seasons combined) when facing a team with a losing record in a game that is past the mid-way point of the season. As for South Florida, they are 12-5 to the over the last 3 seasons combined in their games against teams with a winning record. The Bulls are also 5-1 to the over this season as a road dog of 12.5 points or more. When playing with home loss revenge, South Florida has gone 5-1 to the over this season. The over is also 10-3 this season when the Bulls are off of a loss in conference action. South Florida has allowed opponents to knock down a ridiculous 55% of their shots from the field in the Bulls last 4 road games combined. As for the Golden Hurricane, 4 of their last 5 opponents have knocked down at least 49% of their shots from the field. Look for more of the same Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Tulsa |
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02-20-17 | Iowa State v. Texas Tech OVER 144.5 | Top | 82-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #715 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 9 ET - The Red Raiders are off of a multiple OT loss at West Virginia Saturday. Being back home where they have won 3 of their last 4 and averaged 79 points per game should help them to get back on track. However, Iowa State is likely to match Texas Tech bucket for bucket in this one. The Cyclones have won 4 of their last 5 games and they have scored at least 80 points in regulation time of all 4 of those victories. Overall, Iowa State has been shooting the ball very well (including from three point land) but the Cyclones have allowed 76 points per game (in regulation time) over their last 7 games. Both teams should get into the upper 70s in this game and yet we're dealing with a total that has made a bit of a downward move this morning. This is giving us plenty of line value in a game that matches up a pair of teams both hitting 38% from three point land on the season. 5 of the Cyclones last 7 games against teams with a winning record have gone over the total. Also, the over is 5-1 in Iowa State's last 6 games where they are a road dog of 3 points or less. The over is also 5-1 this season in Texas Tech games where they are playing with road loss revenge. Both teams shot very poorly in that first match-up at Iowa State this season and that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The over is 5-2 in Texas Tech games where they are playing with 1 day of rest or less between games and, also, the over has gone 7-3 this season in Red Raiders games with a posted total in the 140s. 10* OVER the total in Texas Tech |
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02-20-17 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 156 | 72-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #701 Monday 8* OVER the total in Florida State Seminoles vs Boston College Eagles @ 7 ET - The Seminoles had gone over the total in 3 straight games before their offense fell apart in the 2nd half at Pittsburgh Saturday. The Noles are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 home games in conference action. Monday Florida State is hosting a Boston College team that has been scoring well but simply can't stop anybody and this has led to 10 straight losses for the Eagles. The over is 7-1 in B.C.'s last 8 games and they now face an angry FSU team that is averaging 83.6 points per game. The Noles will push the pace here as they are home off of a road loss where their offensive production let them down. The Seminoles are 3-0 to the over this season when they are off of a game where they scored 71 points or more. The Eagles are 5-1 to the over this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 84 points or more. Though this total may seem "high" Boston College is actually 6-2 to the over in their games with a posted total in the 150s this season. The Seminoles are 6-1 to the over as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The Noles scored 88 points the last time the faced the Eagles and, given the situation, I would not be surprised to see FSU actually get to triple digits in this game which should result in an easy win for this play. 8* OVER the total in Florida State |
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02-19-17 | George Washington v. Duquesne OVER 145 | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #845 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Duquesne Dukes vs George Washington Colonials @ Noon ET - Duquesne snapped a long losing streak with a big 96-66 win versus Massachusetts Wednesday. That was their 2nd straight hot shooting game as they had put up 81 points at St Louis in their prior game. Look for the Dukes offense to stay hot at home as they are 11-4 to the over the past 3 seasons when off of a win in conference action and also 11-6 to the over when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, when playing a game with road loss revenge (lost at George Washington last month, they have gone 16-8 to the over the past three seasons. In February games the past 3 seasons combined, the over is 15-3 in Duquesne's games. With a defense that allows 75 points per game and an offense that is red hot, the Dukes and Colonials are likely to get into a shootout in this one. George Washington is off of a loss at Davidson that stayed under the total but, prior to that, the Colonials had averaged 75 points per game in their 4 previous road games and all 4 went over the total. George Washington has allowed opponents to shoot 48% against them from the field in road games. More of the same on Sunday. 8* OVER the total in Duquesne |
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02-18-17 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh OVER 153.5 | Top | 66-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #579 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Panthers vs Florida State Seminoles @ 4 ET - Both of these teams come into this one shooting the ball very well and another shootout can be expected here as a result. The over is 3-0 in Florida State's last 3 games and the Seminoles are on an 8-3 run to the over in their last 11 games. The Noles are averaging 84.3 points per game on the season and have shot 47% or better from the field in 4 straight games. The Panthers did struggle some offensively against Virginia Tech in a tight loss Tuesday but Pittsburgh had shot 48% or better in each of their 4 prior games. Also, the Panthers have been hot from three point land in 4 of their last 5 games. Pittsburgh scored 78 points or more in 3 of its 4 prior games before losing to the Hokies. As for Florida State, they have won 3 straight games before their loss to Notre Dame and averaged 93 points per game in the 3 wins. In their last 5 games overall, the Seminoles have averaged 81 points per game. The over is 7-3 in the Noles last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The over is a perfect 4-0 when Pittsburgh is a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times the Panthers have hosted Florida State. Look for more of the same on Saturday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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02-17-17 | Kent State v. Akron OVER 146.5 | 70-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #875 Friday 8* OVER the total in Akron Zips vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 7 ET - The Zips are 13-0 in home games this season thanks to an offense that is averaging 81 points per game and shooting 50% from the floor in game played in Akron. Kent State has not shot the ball that well away from home in recent games but the Golden Flashes, prior to a poor effort in their most recent road game, had averaged 74 points per game in their prior 4 games away from home. Kent State's defense away from home has been and issue this season as they've allowed opponents to connect on over 46% of their shots from the field and teams are knocking down 37.5% of their three pointers when hosting the Golden Flashes. Akron comes into this game off of an under but they have not recorded back to back unders since early December! Kent State is off of a win and they've had just 1 under in 5 games when they are off of a win against a conference foe this season. Also, the over is 7-3 in Golden Flashes games with a posted total in the 140s this season. The over is also 6-3 this season win Zips games with a posted total in the 140s. The over is 7-4 this season (and 23-15 the L3 seasons) when Akron is off of a win versus a conference foe in their prior game. With both teams off of wins we could see a let-up in defensive intensity here and, keep in mind, Akron is hitting 38.3% of their threes this season but also allowing 37.3% from three point land. I am looking for a shootout in this one as the Zips games against MAC East opponents this season continue to fly over the total - they are 4-1 to the over so far. 8* OVER the total in Akron |
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02-13-17 | Baylor v. Texas Tech OVER 127.5 | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #525 Monday 8* OVER the total in Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Baylor Bears @ 7 ET - I completely understand the low total posted here because, when you look at the defensive efficiency of these two teams on the season you can see where the number posted for the O/U on this game is coming from. However, I feel strongly that not enough credit is being given to the capabilities of these offenses and this is particularly true with this game being played at Texas Tech. In Lubbock, the Red Raiders have averaged 80 points per game on the season. Also, in Big 12 action, Texas Tech is allowing 72 points per game on the season. These teams have been involved in some ugly games in the past and the first game between these two totaled only 126 points and stayed under the total. However, the Red Raiders come into this game having scored at least 75 points in 5 of their 7 home games in Big 12 action. Also, all 7 of those conference home games have totaled at least 131 points. Baylor comes into this game off of a strong defensive effort but the Bears did allow 40.4% or better from the field in 8 of their 9 prior games! 5 of their last 6 road games in Big 12 action have totaled at least 141 points. The over is 4-1 this season when Texas Tech is playing with road loss revenge. Also, the Red Raiders are a long-term 17-6 to the over in games where they are a home dog of 3 points or less. 8* OVER the total in Texas Tech |
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02-11-17 | Kansas State v. West Virginia OVER 144.5 | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #525 Saturday 8* OVER the total in West Virginia Mountaineers vs Kansas State Wildcats @ Noon ET - The Mountaineers certainly would like to play better defense than they did in the first match-up with the Wildcats this season. That was a Cats win at Kansas State and it went over the total. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams have resulted in overs and I expect this trend to continue. The issue with the West Virginia defense is that Kansas State presents some match-up problems for them. That said, the Wildcats are again going to score well but the Mountaineers are a big favorite here with good reason. West Virginia is averaging 91.4 points per game at home this season. The over is 7-0 this season in Mountaineers games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, the over is 5-1 this season when West Virginia is off of a win over a conference foe. The over is a long-term 17-6 in Kansas State games when they are road dog in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Coming off of a tight loss to rival Kansas, the Wildcats may have not as much defensive intensity left for this match-up. It should be a high-scoring game played at a fast pace and the Mountaineers last 7 home games have all totaled over 150 points. This one should too! 8* OVER the total in West Virginia early Saturday. |
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02-10-17 | Dayton v. Rhode Island UNDER 141 | Top | 75-74 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #870 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Rhode Island Rams vs Dayton Flyers @ 7 ET - This total went from a 138 to 141 and this is offering us even more line value on the under in what should be a game played with plenty of defensive intensity. Both of these teams are up near the top of the Atlantic Ten standings and both teams are very strong defensively. Even though the over is 3-2 in the last 5 meetings between these teams note that not a single one of those games totaled more than 141 points and 4 of the 5 totaled 134 points or less. That said, there would have not been a single over in any of the 5 prior meetings at this high number posted on today's total. Of course the reason this total is higher is each team has some solid offensive stats this season but not enough credit is being given to the defenses here in a game where defensive intensity will be at max level. The Rams are allowing just 66 points per game this season and the Flyers are allowing only 64 points per game this season. Rhode Island shot surprisingly well from three point land in the prior meeting this season in Dayton and yet the game stayed under the total. That says a lot right there and certainly a 47.6% performance from beyond the arc is unlikely from either team today. The Flyers are allowing only 31% from three point land on the season and the Rams are allowing only 30.4% from downtown! Rhode Island has really turned up the defensive intensity in recent weeks and they've held 3 of their last 4 opponents under 36% from the field and 4 of their last 6 have been held under 39.8% from the field. The under is 4-1 in the Rams last 5 games. Also, as home fave of 3 points or less, the under is on a 3-1 run in Rhode Island games. The Flyers bring their "A game" in terms of defensive intensity when they are up against quality competition. So far this season, the under is 10-5 in Dayton's games against teams with a winning record. More of the same expected here. 10* UNDER the total in Rhode Island Friday |
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02-07-17 | Ball State v. Akron OVER 155.5 | 63-65 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Akron Zips vs Ball State Cardinals @ 6 ET - The very first numbers that came out on this game yesterday had the total at 160 and it has since dropped to as low as a 155.5 as of this morning. That is offering exceptional line value on the over because both teams love to play at a fast pace and both are capable of putting up big points on going on quick back-and-forth scoring runs. The Zips are off of a loss that snapped their long overall winning streak but they still have an incredible 28-game home winning streak intact. They are happy to be back home after the road loss at Ohio University and I expect Akron to again be firing on all cylinders here. The Zips had multiple problems in the loss to the Bobcats as they had a key player dealing with food poisoning and then foul trouble led to guys having to sit on the bench. This forced the Zips to play "small ball" and they were able to hang around for awhile in the game but eventually ran out of healthy bodies as guys fouled out, struggled with illness, etc. The key to liking the over here is the fact that Akron may be a little more tentative on defense here. They Zips know they can score like crazy (especially at home) and the last thing they want to do is to get into foul trouble again and not have key players available. That said, they will concede a little more on the defensive end and that will help turn this one into a back and forth shootout. The over is an amazing 17-2 in Ball State's game this season! The over is 7-3 in the Zips conference games this season. Both teams shoot the ball very well, including from three point land, and neither teams defends the 3-ball very well either. Add it all up and you have a game where it wouldn't surprise me to see each team score at least 80 points. In fact both teams average nearly 80 points per game this season and the situational value here dictating a rather lax effort on the defensive end should help fuel a highly entertaining game in this one. 8* OVER the total in Akron very early Tuesday evening |
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02-02-17 | Michigan State v. Nebraska OVER 135 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - The Spartans are off of a big rivalry win versus Michigan and that game stayed under the total. However, that was due to a solid effort on defense from Michigan State and that has been the exception rather than the norm of late. The Spartans had allowed 79.3 points per game in their three prior games and opponents shot better than 46% in all three of those games. Each of those three went over the total as Michigan State has been hot on offense as well. In their last 4 games the Spartans have averaged 71 points per game and they've shot better than 44% from three point land in all four games! Overall from the field this season Michigan State has knocked down 47.5% of their shots including 38% from beyond the arc. Nebraska allows opponents to hit 39.4% of three pointers this season and that bodes well for a big game from the Spartans here. The Huskers have allowed 78 points per game in their last 4 homes games and 3 of the 4 went over the total. Nebraska isn't known for being a powerhouse offensively but I look for the Spartans to have a slip up in defensive intensity here after their big rivalry win over the Wolverines. Before knocking off Michigan, Sparty hadn't been overly impressive on the defensive end as noted above. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Spartans road games this season. Also, when Michigan State's line in a road game is between pick'em and +3 the over has gone a perfect 6-0 the last 3 seasons. Overall, in games where the Spartans are an underdog the over is 15-4 the last 3 seasons combined. The first numbers that came up on this total yesterday were 138.5 but the O/U quickly got pushed down to 135. I'll gladly take advantage of the extra line value here as the Cornhuskers are averaging 73 points per game at home this season and they are hosting a hot-shooting Michigan State team Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Nebraska |
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01-31-17 | Ohio v. Western Michigan OVER 150.5 | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan Broncos vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The big news out of Ohio U recently was the loss of one of the MAC's best players as forward Antonio Campbell was lost for the season with a broken foot. Definitely a tough break for the Bobcats but this team continues to put up big points and shoot lights out even without Campbell. This issue for Ohio heading into this one is the fact that they have a huge game versus Akron on deck for Saturday. Couple that with the fact that the Bobcats held the Broncos to just 58 points when these teams met four weeks ago and you have a situation where Ohio's defensive intensity is unlikely to be very high for this game. That will prove to be a mistake because Western Michigan has been putting up big points of late and definitely has been scoring big at home all season long. On the season the Broncos are averaging 85 points per game at home! The problem for Western Michigan has been their defense and, in particular their perimeter defense. The Broncos are very weak against the 3-pointer (allowing 39% this season) and the Bobcats strength on offense is that they are knocking down 39% of their threes season. That said, this looks like an absolute shootout set up here as the Broncos continue to score huge at home but the hot-shooting Bobcats score big right along with them. The over is 4-0 in Ohio's last 4 games and 5-0 in Western Michigan's home games this season. This is nothing new as the over is 21-5 in Broncos home games the last three seasons combined. Also, long-term, the Broncos are 54-28 to the over when playing with road loss revenge. The Bobcats are 52-30 to the over long-term when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. With the Broncos having scored 78 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games and Ohio U having averaged 83 points per game in their last 3 games, both teams are definitely "feeling it" right now and come into this game with tremendous confidence on the offensive end. 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan |
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01-28-17 | St. Louis v. George Washington OVER 128 | Top | 55-63 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #571 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in George Washington Colonials vs St Louis Billikens @ 4 ET - This game is a little "off of the beaten path" but oftentimes that is where the best value is found, especially for a total play. In this particular match-up we have a situation where both teams are coming off of wins where they each put up a bunch of points. That helps because it not only boosts the confidence of the offense but it can also lead, sometimes unconsciously, to more relaxed defense. The key to play here is, of course, line value. The Colonials are favored by 14 points here and the Billikens have scored 65 points in each of their last two meetings with George Washington. I see no reason why St Louis shouldn't again get to that number today and that means if the odds makers are right (as they so often are) we should see a 79-65 type game here. Of course that totals 144 points which is well above the 128 total that has been placed on this game. The reason for the low posted total here is the fact that the Billikens recently lost their top scorer and, overall, haven't scored well on the season. But what I like about St Louis here is the fact they are off of a game where they just made a ton of trips to the free throw line plus knocked down threes at a respectable rate (7 of 20). St Louis has hit at least 35% from three point land in 9 of its last 11 games. The Billikens will take advantage of a George Washington team not known for its perimeter defense as GW has allowed 37.5% threes on the season. The Colonials offense has been hot from long range as they've knocked down at least 40% from three point land in 8 of their last 11 games! George Washington has only seen 2 of their 20 games this season finish with a total of less than 128 points this season. I know the posted total is low here because of St Louis but it is simply too low in my opinion. The Billikens have allowed an average of nearly 73 points per game in their last 8 games and their D has not impressed during this run. The over is 5-2 in George Washington home games with a posted total in the 120s. Also, the over is 10-5 when GW is off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. When facing a team that averages less than 64 points per game, the Colonials have gone 5-1 to the over. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in George Washington |
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01-24-17 | Villanova v. Marquette OVER 152.5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
TV Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #737 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Marquette Golden Eagles vs Villanova Wildcats @ 8 ET - The Golden Eagles defense and rebounding are both glaring concerns. Marquette is not going to stop Villanova from scoring a ton of points in this one. However, the Wildcats defense may not be at it's sharpest here. Keep in mind, Nova already obliterated the Golden Eagles 93-81 two and a half weeks ago in Philly. Note the Wildcats led that game by as much as 30 points and the final score is not fully indicative of just how much of a blowout win it was for Villanova. As a result, it is going to be difficult for the Wildcats to have the mindset of a team that is going to come in to Milwaukee and play with a lot of defensive intensity tonight. Complicating the situation for Villanova is that they have a date with a ranked Virginia team on deck. That game is being played at Villanova on Sunday and may very well end up being the highest ranked team that the Wildcats face on their home floor this entire season. As a result, that game is of the utmost importance to Villanova and I would not be surprised to see the Wildcats not fully focused on the Golden Eagles here as they start peeking ahead to the big match-up with the Cavaliers. Though the Wildcats are a strong team all the way around (including defense) they did allow Marquette to hit 45% of their threes in the match-up earlier this month. A repeat performance would not surprise because now the Golden Eagles are at home and they have been nailing threes like crazy this season. It's now 13 straight games that Marquette has shot at least 37.5% from three point land! In 10 of those 13 games the Golden Eagles shot at least 42.9% from beyond the arc! Marquette does tend to put up a lot of points but they have allowed 80 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. One of those games did go to OT but they allowed 77 points in regulation of that game. Look for a high-scoring shootout here as the Golden Eagles will be amped up for hosting the #1 team in the nation but their only hope here is to have a huge game offensively because their porous defense won't be able to stop the Wildcats. The over is 15-7 in Wildcats games where they are a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points. The over is 17-10 in Villanova's road games the past 3 seasons. The over is 5-1 this season in games where Marquette is an underdog. The over is 14-7 the past 3 seasons when the Golden Eagles are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Marquette |
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01-23-17 | NC State v. Duke OVER 160.5 | Top | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #519 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs NC State Wolfpack @ 7 ET - The Wolfpack seek revenge for being knocked out of the ACC Tourney by Duke last spring. While I do expect NC State to certainly put up a valiant effort tonight, they don't have the defensive mindset necessary to slow down the Blue Devils. Couple that with the fact that this total opened up at 163.5 and has since dropped down to the 160 range and we have some nice value here in a game that is likely to be played at a frenetic pace. NC State has averaged 81.6 points per game on the season while the Blue Devils are averaging 82.9 points per game this season. The reason the Wolfpack are 2-5 in ACC action is they allow 84.7 points per game. Duke is averaging 91 points per game in their 3 home games in ACC action and, though they are off of an under versus Miami Saturday, the Blue Devils entered that game on a 5-0 run to the over. The Wolfpack are off of a home loss to Wake Forest and NC State is 17-9 to the over when off of a loss in ACC action the past 3 seasons combined. Overall, the over is 11-6 in Wolfpack games this season. Duke is on a long-term run of 21-13 to the over when they are a home favorite in a range of 15.5 to 18 points. Look for the Blue Devils totals record to go to 6-1 to the over in ACC action with an extremely high-scoring game Monday against a revenge-minded Wolfpack team that will score well but has "earned" their ranking as the worst defense in the ACC so far this season with allowing 77.2 points per game on the season thus far. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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01-18-17 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 136 | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
MVC Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #543 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Northern Iowa Panthers vs Loyola-Chicago Ramblers @ 8 ET - The Ramblers have gone over the total in 10 straight games and are 12-1 to the over in their last 13 games that had an O/U line. Loyola-Chicago has been shooting the ball extremely well including from three point land. The Ramblers are averaging 77.4 points per game on the season. I don't foresee Northern Iowa as being able to slow them down. The Panthers allowed 77 points to Loyola in the first match-up this season. Northern Iowa didn't shoot very well in that game (though it still went over the total) but I look for the Panthers to shoot the ball much better at home. The Panthers overall numbers on offense this season do not impress but they are a "different team" when they are at home. On the season, Northern Iowa's home games have seen the Panthers average 71 points per game while knocking down 46% of their shots from the field including 37% of their shots from beyond the arc. The over is 3-0 this season when the Panthers are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Also, the over is 4-2 in Northern Iowa's home games and all 5 of their conference games had gone over the total prior to their under versus Drake Sunday. The Ramblers are 6-0 to the over in road games this season and 6-0 to the over in their conference games and 5-1 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record. They are shooting so well that they are full of confidence and will score well even though they are on the road while I look for the Panthers to also play very well on the offensive end as they continue to enjoy success on their home floor. Look for the over to go to 11-0 in Loyola-Chicago's last 11 games with another high-scoring shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Northern Iowa |
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01-15-17 | Rutgers v. Indiana OVER 143 | Top | 57-76 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Game #877 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Hoosiers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Noon ET - The oddsmakers are good at what they as we all know. That said, when they set a spread it is usually very accurate and that's why the numbers are so tough to beat. The reason I mention that here is because I think they "missed" on this total and let me explain why. They set this line at 16 and the total at 143. That means that if they truly "nailed it" Indiana wins this game 80-64 or 79-63 because those are the two final scores that gets us closest to the total they set. However, what is noteworthy about that is that the Hoosiers are averaging 85 points per game this season and they're now at home, off of a loss, and facing a Rutgers team that has lost 6 straight games and is winless in Big Ten action. On the season the Scarlet Knights are averaging 65 points per game and, even in Big Ten action they have scored at least 60 points in 3 straight games. I look for Indiana to impose their will in this game but I don't like laying big points and I would not be surprise to see the Hoosiers "sag off" on defense once this "game is in hand" which could be the case by early in the 2nd half. As a result, this one should fly over the total easily. The over is 13-3 the last 3 seasons in Rutgers games the past 3 seasons when they are a road dog of 12.5 points or more. The over is 8-2 in Indiana's home games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 144.5 the past 3 seasons. The Hoosiers are averaging 89 points per game at home this season. Indiana is shooting 54% from the field (including 42% from three point land) in home games this season. The Hoosiers offense will prove unstoppable against a Scarlet Knights defense that is allowing an average of 78 points per game on the Big Ten road and now faces the Big Ten's most potent offense. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana very early Sunday |
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01-13-17 | Detroit v. Oakland OVER 150.5 | Top | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
TV Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Detroit Titans @ 7 ET - The Golden Grizzlies have been an "under team" this season but Oakland is averaging 79 points per game on the season and they're set for an offensive explosion here. The Grizzlies are off of an ugly 57-56 win at Illinois-Chicago Sunday. Oakland is 10-4 to the over as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points and the Titans defense is porous. Detroit is allowing 84.5 points per game this season and teams are hitting a ridiculous 51.2% from the field against them including 39% from three point land. The key to the over here is the fact that, as bad as the Titans defense is, they do score well. Detroit has scored 70 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games and are averaging 74 points per game this season. The over is 21-12 in Titans road games the past 3 seasons combined. Also, the over is 14-7 in Detroit games the past 3 seasons when they are off of a loss against a conference rival. The average score of the last 3 meetings between these teams is Oakland 91, Detroit 86. That's 177 points and none of those 3 games went to OT either. Look for this one to easily fly over the total as the Golden Grizzlies will be happy to run and gun at home after the ugly, low-scoring win at Illinois-Chicago. As for the Titans, free-flowing games with very little defense is truly the only way they know how to play. More of the same here. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland early Friday evening |
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01-10-17 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt OVER 158 | Top | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Earliest Cash ESPN - Rickenbach CBB Game #537 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Vanderbilt Commodores vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - This total opened up at a 160 and has already been pushed down a little to 158 at the time of this write-up. We get some value here because Vandy is off of an ugly game at Alabama. That was a hard-fought loss that the Crimson Tide won 59 to 56. That is helping to impact the markets here when, the fact is, we should see this game top out in the 175 range! The Commodores have averaged 79.4 points per game this season (and shot 47.6%) in their home games. The Wildcats come in with the most dangerous offense in the nation. UK has averaged 94.2 points per game this season and they are hitting 49% from the field. They can beat you anywhere on the floor and the over is 7-3 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. For Vanderbilt, when they are passed the midway point of the season and facing a team with a winning record, the over has gone 16-10 the past two seasons. The Commodores, other than the Crimson Tide game of course, have had good ball movement on offense and they've shot well from three point land - 40.3% this season! The Wildcats have scored 96 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The over is 14-9 in Kentucky's road games the past three seasons. UK has revenge for a loss at Vanderbilt last season. That said, I don't expect the Cats to let up at all at any point in this game. However, the Commodores also have a 7-footer inside who has been scoring well of late to complement their hot shooting from beyond the arc and I expect Vandy to hang around in this one. They lose by double digits but they score enough to send this one flying over the total because I expect Kentucky to "put on a clinic" on offense. 10* OVER the total in Vanderbilt |
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01-09-17 | St. John's v. Georgetown UNDER 154.5 | Top | 55-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Georgetown Hoyas vs St John's Red Storm @ 6:30 ET Monday - The Hoyas are very hungry for a win so I expect them to really have the defensive intensity turned up for this game. This is even more likely because they have a non-conference game on deck so Georgetown knows that it's now (or having to wait another week) if they want to notch a W in Big East action. The Johnnies also are going to turn up the heat defensively. Their coach ripped them about defense after they allowed 97 to Xavier on Saturday. Look for the Red Storm to bring a better effort here and they had been a little better on that end of the floor early this season. They just didn't "bring it" on Saturday. The Hoyas are allowing only 41.3% from the field this season. St John's has allowed 43.4% from the field and I expect a big performance from the defense here after back to back poor efforts versus Creighton and Xavier. The under is 4-1 when the Red Storm are a road dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The under is 11-4 when St John's is off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Georgetown is 5-1 to the under this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Also, the under is 9-3 in Hoyas games against teams with a losing record. That means we have a combined 29-9 mark in favor of the under in this one and I look what both coaches are saying heading into this match-up. It should be a game with plenty of defensive intensity. 10* UNDER the total in Georgetown early Monday evening |
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01-06-17 | Western Michigan v. Akron OVER 151 | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Friday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Akron Zips vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 6:30 ET - The total may look a little "big" here but it is absolutely justified and I expect this game to get up into the 160s. Both these teams are on an 11-6 run to the over in January games. Western Michigan is off of an abysmal performance on offense in their most recent game but they are 5-2 to the over when they are off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. The Broncos defense, as usual, was absent in their most recent game and they are 3-1 to the over this season when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Western Michigan has allowed 50% or higher field goal percentages in 9 of their last 11 games. Amazingly, the only 2 games the Broncos did not get 'lit up' were two non-lined games (against Central Arkansas and Alabama A & M). The point is that Western Michigan's defense has functioned like a sieve this season and Akron is a strong team that is making nearly 50% of their shots from the field this season and nearly 40% of their three pointers on the season. The Zips have averaged 88 points per game in their last 4 games but they have allowed 47% or better from the field in 3 of those 4 games. Western Michigan, before getting obliterated in their most recent game, had averaged 77 points per game in their 4 prior games. The spread here is the Zips by about a dozen and, as you can see from the above, an 89-77 game would not be a surprise. That said, look for this one to fly over the total. 8* OVER the total in Akron early Friday evening |
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12-30-16 | La Salle v. Dayton OVER 151 | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
CBS Sports Network Top - Rickenbach CBB Game #729 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dayton Flyers vs La Salle Explorers @ 6 ET - Each of the last 4 meetings between these teams has stayed under the total and not a single game totaled more than 118 points. That said, the odds makers opened up this total at 154.5 and, as you would expect, the markets have reacted and the total has dropped down to a 151. In typical contrarian fashion, I'll gladly fade the move here. La Salle is averaging 84.2 points per game this season but also allowing 83.2 points per game! While the Explorers certainly have their fair share of scoring threats and guys who can "create" on offense, they are sorely lacking in terms of strong defenders on the other end of the floor. Dayton is the superior team here by far so the Flyers won't be "scared" to run and gun with the Explorers here. Dayton knows they can outpace the Explorers in this one and both these teams are hitting at least 37.5% from three point. What is simply incredible is the fact that La Salle is allowing opponents to hit 43.1% from beyond the arc. The over is 5-1 in Explorers games this season and they're facing a Dayton team that is averaging 77.4 points per game this season. The past 3 seasons combined La Salle has gone 9-5 to the over in games against teams who average 77 points or more per game. The Flyers are a perfect 3-0 to the over this season in games where they are favored by 9 points or more. I expect these trends to continue tonight and will take advantage of the increased line value here. 10* OVER the total in Dayton Friday |
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12-27-16 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin OVER 125 | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Big Ten ESPN2 Smash - Rickenbach CBB 8* OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET Tuesday - The Badgers allowed only 37 points in their game against Florida A & M Friday and that is helping to give us some line value here as the markets have reacted by dropping this total from an opener of 128 all the way down to a 125 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that the Badgers do play strong defense but also their offensive is under-rated. This Wisconsin team is averaging 78 points per game and they've scored at least 67 points in all but one of their games this season. Though Rutgers has faced a weaker non-conference schedule than the Badgers have, the Scarlet Knights have built up confidence with their 11-2 start this season and they are averaging 73.4 points per game this season. As a road dog of 12.5 or more points the Scarlet Knights have gone 12-2 to the over the past three seasons. Including in that number is a perfect 3-0 tightener when they are a road dog in a range of 18.5 to 24 points. Also, in Big Ten action for Rutgers the past two seasons, the over went 25-12. In games with a posted total in the 120s the past two seasons, the Scarlet Knights went 5-1 to the over. Each of the last two meetings between these teams went over the total and Rutgers has scored at least 66 points in 11 of their 13 games this season. A lot of value with this low total here as Rutgers has scored at least 61 points in all their games this season and, even against the Badgers the last two seasons they were never held to less than 57. That means if Wiscy does hold the Scarlet Knights to 57 but wins this one by 20 as they are projected to, then that gets this game total to the mid-130s. 8* OVER in Wisconsin Tuesday |
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12-23-16 | Stephen F Austin v. Southern Miss OVER 134 | 67-64 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - CBB Game #751 Friday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks in Diamond Head Classic @ Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, HI @ 6:30 ET - Both these teams are off of unders yesterday in this tourney as Stephen F Austin faced Tulsa and had a rare, horrible shooting performance in the 74 to 51 loss to a 6-4 Golden Hurricane team that has been playing solid defense. Southern Mississippi also had a tough shooting night as they faced a 6-4 San Diego State team that has been playing great defense much of this season. The Golden Eagles were held to just 51 points on awful shooting from the floor. Prior to that game Southern Miss had another poor shooting performance against a Mississippi State team that is now 8-3 on the season. The point is that after facing tough defenses both teams are likely to get back on track on the offensive end today as they now face each a weaker defense and a losing team. After each scored 51 points yesterday, both will be looking to light it up today and I expect a good pace with plenty of open looks in this game. Keep in mind, both of these picks are allowing an average of 73+ points per game on the season. Neither team has defended well as the Lumberjacks and Golden Eagles are allowing 46.9% and 45.9%, respectively, from the field this season. Stephen F Austin had averaged scoring 80 points per game in their 4 games prior to yesterday's loss. The Lumberjacks are 11-5 to the over in games where they are favored and they have a great history in games where they have had 1 day or less of rest - a 22-2 SU mark. Of the 3 such games that had an O/U posted, all 3 went over the total. Look for Stephen F Austin to dictate the tempo in this one and there will be plenty of offense for both club's following yesterday's ugliness. 8* OVER the total in the Southern Miss game |
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12-20-16 | Richmond v. James Madison OVER 131.5 | 75-55 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Early Total Dominator - CBB Game #527 Tuesday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in James Madison Dukes vs Richmond Spiders @ 7 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 135.5 to as low as a 131 as of gameday morning. It is a good value on the over because both teams games have averaged around 140 points a game so far this season so, in my opinion, the move on this total went 4.5 points the wrong way as it should have moved higher. Last year James Madison beat Richmond 87 to 75 so this is a revenge spot for the Spiders. While I don't expect the team to again combine for 162 points I do expect Richmond to push the tempo in this one as they are hungry for revenge in this in-state rivalry game. The Spiders are averaging 72.2 points per game in their last 6 games and the Dukes are off of a loss at Appalachian State but, prior to that game James Madison had scored at least 67 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Of their last 7 games with an O/U posted on the match-up, 6 of the 7 totaled at least 134 points. The over is 10-3 in Richmond's games with a posted total in the 130s and also 12-4 when the Spiders are a road fave in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the over is 8-4 when Richmond is facing a team with a losing record. The over is 7-4 when James Madison is a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the over is 4-1 when the Dukes enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 games or more. Before their loss to Appalachian State stayed just under the total, 5 of the Dukes last 6 games with an O/U posted had gone over the total. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in James Madison |
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12-14-16 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Ohio OVER 139 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - CBB Game #523 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio University Bobcats vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers @ 7 ET - Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off of a loss at Loyola-Illinois where the Panthers allowed a ridiculous 67.5% shooting percentage from the field. Certainly UW-Milw would like to improve on that here but the problem is that they were repeatedly beaten in the paint. Not only are the Panthers small in the post they are facing an Ohio University team that has good size down low and absolutely is fully capable of dominating them in the paint just like Loyola-Chicago did on Saturday. The one thing the Panthers do have going for them is some hot shooting and this includes hitting 40% or better from three point land in four straight games. The Panthers have averaged 74.7 points per game in their 3 games prior to an ugly loss to Loyola-Illiniois. Look for Wisconsin-Milwaukee to continue the hot shooting and put up big points here but they won't be able to stop the Bobcats inside game. Ohio U is averaging 78..6 points per game this season but, as hot as their offense has been, the Bobcats are getting lax on defense and, in their last two lined games they've allowed at least 46.7% from the field and an average of 88.5 points per game. The over is 6-2 in Panthers games this season and also 14-5 the past three seasons combined in games with a posted total in the 130 to 139.5 range. Also, when off of a game where they scored 60 points or less, the Panthers have gone 3-0 to the over this season. The over is 7-3 in the Bobcats last 10 Wednesday games and this midweek match-up is conducive to another one flying past the number. 10* OVER the total in Ohio University |
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12-10-16 | Wichita State v. Oklahoma OVER 140.5 | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - CBB Game #547/548 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma Sooners vs Wichita State Shockers @ 4 ET - Both teams have a lot of new faces this season but production has been strong with each team averaging 80+ points a game so far this season. With this total dipping down from 146 to a 140 there is excellent line value on the over in this one. With the youth on each team their defensive rotations to the ball and switching off of screens, etc. is not always at its best early in the year and there are a lot of scorers for each team that can "fill it up". The Sooners tougher games this season (Wisconsin, Clemson, Northern Iowa) have seen them allow 76 points per game. Wichita State allowed 77 points in their most recent tough match-up as they faced Michigan State. Since that game, on the other end of the floor, the Shockers have shot the ball very well and have averaged 81 points per game. The Sooners also have been on fire and have shot the ball very well in their past three games and this includes nailing a high percentage of threes which has been a strong trend for Oklahoma so far this season. Of course success with the 3-ball is a key to winning overs and the over is 3-0 in the Sooners last three games and 2-0 in Wichita State's last 2 non-home games. The over is 9-4 in Oklahoma's December games the past three seasons combined and the Shockers are on a long-term 5-1 run to the over in games against Big 12 teams. In a non-conference match-up featuring two teams that are not very familiar with each other, look for the offensive skills to be tough to stop here in what should be a shootout! 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma Saturday afternoon |
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12-09-16 | Georgia Southern v. Minnesota OVER 142 | Top | 49-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #719/720 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 9 ET - The Golden Gophers have some impressive defensive numbers so far this season but those were impacted by a grudge matches with Vanderbilt and Southern Illinois and then playing weak foe (non-lined game) when they faced Mount St Mary's. In the Golden Gophers other 6 games they have allowed an average of 73.5 points per game. Georgia Southern is a SunBelt Conference team that returned all starters and can put up big points. The weakness for the Eagles is they can't stop a talented team like the 8-1 Golden Gophers from also putting up big points. Minnesota has averaged 75.7 points per game this season. Georgia Southern has averaged 78.6 points per game this season and, like most SunBelt teams, they are not afraid to push the pace and play up-tempo. As a road dog of 12.5 points or more, the Eagles have gone 5-0 to the over the past three seasons. In all road games during that stretch Georgia Southern was a solid 18-7 to the over. In non-conference action the Eagles have gone 6-1 to the over in recent seasons and also 8-2 to the over when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Golden Gophers have gone 6-1 to the over the past three seasons when they are a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. With the drop on this total (opened up at 146 yesterday), there is even more line value with the over in this match-up. Both teams are comfortable to push the pace in this match-up and the Eagles returned all their offensive firepower from last season. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Friday |
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12-05-16 | CS-Northridge v. St. John's OVER 166 | 70-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - CBB Game #723/724 Monday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in St John's Red Storm vs Cal State Northridge Matadors @ 6:30 ET - St John's is off of a win at Tulane Friday and they put up 95 points in the game and shot lights out. Now they are at home as a double digit favorite and matched up against a team they know they should score 100 against. Cal State Northridge comes into this game off of a big win as well. The Matadors are known for playing an up-tempo game and they put up 79 points in Saturday's win versus Idaho State. Cal State Northridge has already put up at least 78 points in 6 of their 8 games this season. The Red Storm are a 13 point favorite in this game at the time of the write-up. The point is that you're looking at "at least" a 91-78 game based on those numbers and that is why the odds makers had this correct when they opened up the total at 169. The key to the value now is not only the drop to the 166 but the fact that both teams coming into this game confident off of a win, shooting the ball very well, and there is a tendency to overlook defense in a spot like this. This game is all about a "run and gun" affair and both teams are also hitting 40% of their three pointers so far this season. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Matadors games where they are an underdog this season. The over is a perfect 2-0 in Red Storm games against teams with a losing record so far this season. Cal State Northridge is allowing an average of 90.5 points per game this season but they've gotten some big contributions from a couple of key newcomers and the Matadors, even though they can't stop anybody on defense, will continue to pile up points on the scoreboard. I know this total is a big one, but it should soar past the number. 8* OVER the total in St John's early Monday evening |
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12-04-16 | Bowling Green v. Cincinnati OVER 129.5 | Top | 56-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Top Play - CBB Game #517/518 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 8 ET - Both these teams have been "under" teams this season but that is helping to give us some solid line value on the over in this match-up. That's because of the situational edges here that will play a key factor in this one. The Bearcats are known for their solid defense but it's easy for them to overlook a weak MAC team in this particular spot because Cincinnati is off of a hard-fought low-scoring win over Iowa State and they have a big game with Butler on deck. That said, it will be hard for the Cats to get excited about defensive intensity in this one. As for the Falcons, they do like to play at a fast tempo and their offense got a boost of confidence with averaging 88 points per game in their last 2 games. Those were non-lined contests but facing weaker foes helped Bowling Green get their offense going and, as for the other end of the floor, the Falcons have allowed an average of 76 points per game in their 5 lined games. Cincinnati has already eclipsed the 83 point mark twice this season against weaker competition and the Bearcats did put up 83 when they faced the Falcons last year. Based on spread on this game and the key factors relating to the Cats being willing to just run and gun with the Falcons quite a bit in this one, this should play out as an 83 to 63 type game which puts it well over the total. Bowling Green is a fantastic 10-2 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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11-29-16 | Buffalo v. Creighton OVER 154 | 72-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #737/738 Tuesday - 8* OVER the total in Creighton Blue Jays vs Buffalo Bulls @ 8:30 ET - Creighton is off of their worst shooting performance from beyond the arc this season and yet they still scored 82 points. That shows you just how potent this Blue Jays offense is and, after connecting on only 27.6% of their three pointers against Loyola-MD, look for Creighton to resume the hot shooting tonight. The Blue Jays are averaging 91.8 points per game and they're facing a Bulls team that allowed Xavier, the toughest opponent they've faced this season, to put up 86 points on them. The odds makers have this line right around a 20 and if Creighton hits their average of 92 that means 72 would be expected of the Bulls and that pushes this one clear of the current total of 154 (as of early Tuesday morning) by a double digit margin and that has me "in play" in this one. Even though CJ Massinburg has been out for the Bulls, Blake Hamilton and Willie Connor are both very strong perimeter players. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 in Buffalo's last 15 Tuesday games and 7-3 in the Blue Jays last 10 games where they have been a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Creighton is not known for their defensive intensity as they are allowing 74.8 points per game so far this season and have not held any of their first six opponents under 40% from the field and I expect this one to be a fast-paced "run and gun" affair and will take advantage of the initial downward movement on this total. 8* OVER the total in Creighton |
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11-28-16 | Butler v. Utah OVER 142 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #523/524 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Butler Bulldogs @ 9 ET - Both teams are undefeated as the Bulldogs are 6-0 and the Utes are 4-0 so far this season. What I like about that is that oftentimes winning streaks will mask defensive shortcomings. When a team is winning you feel like you can do no wrong no matter how you're playing and the key here is that both teams are full of confidence on the offensive end too. Utah has shot 49.8% from the field this season and averaged 89 points per game while Butler has shot 50% from the field and averaged 80.2 points per game game so far this season. The Utes have great numbers on defense but, keep in mind, they have played a super easy schedule. The toughest 'test' so far for Utah was against Cal-Riverside Friday and the Utes did allow 67 points in that game. The Bulldogs are going to give the Utes defense an even tougher test but Butler will also find that Utah is capable of big scoring runs at home. Both teams are playing with so much confidence offensively that there will be no reluctance to push the tempo and to take shots early in the shot clock. I expect the pace of this game to therefore be very conducive to a solid over. There is an infusion of youth and new talent for each of these teams and that means defensive breakdowns when facing guys who are strong off of the dribble and can create open looks for others. The over is 9-3 in Utah's November games the past 3 seasons combined and the Utes are also 18-9 to the over in non-conference games with a posted O/U the last 3 seasons. Look for more of the same tonight as Butler's productivity on offense has been impressive this season but the Utes, at home, will hang right with the Bulldogs all the way through this one. The result is a high-scoring, up-tempo affair. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah |
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11-24-16 | New Mexico v. Virginia Tech OVER 153 | Top | 72-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
RARE Tourney Top - Rickenbach CBB Game #525/526 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Virginia Tech Hokies vs New Mexico Lobos @ Titan Gym in the Wooden Classic in Fullerton, CA @ 4:30 ET - Both of these teams are 3-0 but have played weak schedules. When this happens, a team's defense tends to relax as it's only natural because, when you're winning, it is easy to just keep rolling along and overlook any defensive shortcomings. That's because, to this point, they haven't cost you anything because you simply keep on winning due to facing out-classed foes. The significance in that here is that both these teams returned plenty of firepower this season in terms of returning starters and big scorers but both teams have had issues with being lax on the defensive end in recent seasons. Virginia Tech is particularly known for this and New Mexico is certainly known for playing a "run and gun" style as well. That said, the fact this total has dropped down from as high as a 158 to as low as a 153 is now offering us fantastic value on the over. The Hokies are 7-2 to the over on a neutral court in recent seasons and also 7-1 to the over in games where the total is in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. Also, New Mexico is 10-6 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. After holding in-state rival New Mexico State to only 59 points in their most recent game, look for the Lobos defense to now fall flat in this one after the big rivalry win. 10* OVER the total in the Virginia Tech game Thursday |
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11-21-16 | Oklahoma State v. Connecticut UNDER 154.5 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Top TV Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #741/742 Monday - 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Connecticut Huskies vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 9 ET - This total has risen in ridiculous jumps today and I am happy to fade it. After opening up at 146.5 this total has risen to as high as 155.5 and I completely understand the move because Oklahoma State is averaging a ridiculous 107 points per game this season. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have only played 3 games this season and they haven't faced a team that is anywhere close to the quality of this UConn team. The Huskies also are known for playing solid defense. Connecticut has allowed an average of only 64.3 points per game this season and last season the Huskies allowed only 63.5 points per game on the full season. That was good for 14th in the nation. The fact is that they are a defensive-minded team and so far this season they have struggled on the offensive end where they are averaging only 61.3 points per game. That sets this one up to be a much tighter, low-scoring match-up than what many are expecting here. Oklahoma State was 10th in the Big 12 last season for scoring as they averaged only 66.5 points per game and they allowed 67.1 points per game last season which was good enough for 2nd in the Big 12. This total has been inflated by the unusual early season stats for the Cowboys and we can step in now and take advantage of that. This total, as noted above, has gotten run all the way up into the 150s and, keep in mind, even when totals have been in the 140 to 149.5 range for the Cowboys the under has gone 12-3 (80%) the last 3 seasons. The Huskies, when off of a non-conference game, have seen the under go 14-7 (67%) the last 3 seasons. 10* UNDER the total in the UConn game Monday night |
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11-20-16 | NC State v. Creighton OVER 158 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Top Total Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #559/560 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Blue Jays vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8:30 ET in San Juan, Puerto Rico - This total opened up at a 160.5 and now has dropped to a 158. Of course this is because the markets see a total in the 160 range and immediately think under. However, this total was big for a reason. The Blue Jays are known for their emphasis on the 3-ball and they've been knocking down shots like crazy from beyond the arc this season. Creighton is hitting 48.5% of their three pointers this season. The weakness for the Blue Jays is rebounding and interior defense. That spells trouble against an NC State team tha thas some solid size inside and that has shot the ball extremely well (60%+) from inside the arc in their last two games. The Wolfpack and Blue Jays are both brimming with confidence as each team has won all 3 of their games and NC State is averaging 84 points per game and Creighton is averaging 90.3 points per game early this season. The over is 5-1 in Blue Jays neutral court games and 8-3 in the Wolfpack's neutral court games. I'll gladly test that combined 13-4 over mark in thise one. 10* OVER the total in Creighton game Sunday |
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11-14-16 | Villanova v. Purdue OVER 148 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #531/532 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - Purdue has one of the biggest frontcourts in the country and, as a result, there is no way that Villanova wants to turn this game into a half-court affair. The Wildcats are built well for being able to get quick points in transition and use their outstanding guard play to score big points in this one. In terms of the inside game, the Boilermakers are going to be able to score a ton of points in the paint including with second chance opportunities as their big men will certainly grab some offensive caroms in this one. The Cats put up 88 points in their season opener while Purdue scored 109 and the Mackey Arena will be rocking tonight for this HUGE game! The over is a long-term 14-6 in Villanova road games where their line ranges from pick'em up to a -3. Also, the over is 15-7 the last 3 seasons in all Wildcats road games. Additionally, the over is a long-term 15-5 in Nova road games where the posted total is in a range from 145 to 149.5 points. Tonight, with the Cats wanting to push the tempo and play small ball and the Boilermakers willing to engage in some running and quick transition points as they take advantage of the raucous atmosphere in West Lafayette, look for the over to improve to 8-4 in Purdue's last 12 games against Big East opposition. This should be a wildly entertaining early-season affair. 10* OVER the total in Purdue early Monday evening |
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03-27-16 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina OVER 154.5 | Top | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play OVER 154.5 in North Carolina vs Notre Dame @ 8:45 ET - We are getting some line value with this low total because Notre Dame is off of a "dogfight" win over Wisconsin that totaled just 117 points. Of course the Badgers love to play "slow it down" basketball and that keyed this low-scoring game. Tonight's game should be anything but that as the Tar Heels will push the pace just like they did in their huge win over Indiana that totaled 187 points Friday. The game between ND and UNC did stay under the total two weeks ago in the ACC Tourney. However, the Fighting Irish had a horrific shooting performance in that game. I don't expect that to be repeated here. In fact, Notre Dame had averaged 79 points per game in their 3 prior meetings with North Carolina. As for the Tar Heels, they have averaged 76.5 points per game in their last 4 meetings with the Irish. Currently the UNC offense is functioning at its highest level as the Heels have ripped off 3 straight wins in the Big Dance courtesy of a torrid shooting that has seen them average 90 points per game. The Tar Heels much maligned 3 point shooting actually was on fire against the Hoosiers Friday and also, UNC has shot well from beyond the arc in their past two meetings with Notre Dame. The over is 6-2 this season when the Irish are an underdog and also 5-2 this season when ND is playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. The over is also 11-3 the past three seasons combined when Notre Dame is off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The over is 14-9 this season when the Tar Heels are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, the over is 17-8 the past three seasons in UNC games played on a neutral court. Look for the over to improve to 7-2 in Tar Heels in NCAA Tourney games with another shootout on Sunday night. *10* OVER in North Carolina |
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03-26-16 | Oklahoma v. Oregon OVER 151.5 | 80-68 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA *8* OVER 151.5 in Oregon vs Oklahoma @ 6:05 ET - Oklahoma is off of an under but they scored 77 points in their win over Texas A & M and the Sooners are averaging 77 points per game in their last 7 games (a 6-1 SU run) and OU is averaging 80.5 points per game on the season. They're facing the top seeded Ducks who are also off of an under despite piling up 82 points against Duke. Oregon is averaging 79 points per game on the season and the Ducks have averaged a fantastic 83 points per game during their current 11 game winning streak. Oregon has so many weapons all over the floor and is willing to play at a fast pace. Oklahoma has arguably the top backcourt in the entire nation and also is happy to push the tempo. That means a game where each team his the 80 point mark should not be a surprise at all. Just like Friday's game between North Carolina and Indiana a "high total" attracted some "under money" and yet the game went over by nearly 30 (we had the over in that one), I look for a similar situation tonight. High posted total but well deserved and this game should get into the 165 range. We get a little value since each of their games went under the total in the Sweet Sixteen round. 8 of Oklahoma's 13 non-conference games have gone over the total this season. When Oregon is on a neutral court with a line of pick'em to -3 the over has gone 12-3. *8* OVER in Oregon |
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03-25-16 | Indiana v. North Carolina OVER 158.5 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play OVER 158.5 in North Carolina vs Indiana @ 9:55 ET - This total opened up at a 160 and, not surprisingly, dropped down about a bucket as many simply see that "160 range" as a whole other threshold. In my mind, the big total here is absolutely justified and I expect these teams to get into the 170 to 180 range Friday. Each team is averaging in the low 80s on the season. Each team is playing with a high level of confidence so they are willing to push the tempo. North Carolina has the size inside to get some big production in the paint while the Hoosiers red hot shooting from all over the floor, including a season mark of 41.6% from THREE point land, can key some huge productive runs for Indiana. The Hoosiers had a couple of tough road games in the first half of February where they shot poorly but they have shot very well overall ever since then. In their current 7-1 run their last 8 games Indiana has averaged 79 points per game and shot better than 50% from the field. The Tar Heels have shot at least 47% from the field in 8 of their last 13 games and let's not forget they face some tough competition in the ACC! That said the Heels could have a huge breakout game against a Big Ten defense that gave up 94 points to Duke earlier this season. The over is 24-14 in Indiana's last 38 non-conference games. The over is 4-1 the last 3 seasons in North Carolina neutral court games where the Tar Heels are a 3.5 to 6 point favorite. Â The over is 10-5 in Heels non-conference games this season. Also, the over is 4-1 this season (and 12-5 the last 3 seasons) in UNC games when they enter after 5 or 6 days of rest. Fresh legs here, dangerous offensive weapons, and a desire to push the tempo. *10* OVER in North Carolina |
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03-20-16 | Middle Tennessee v. Syracuse OVER 130.5 | Top | 50-75 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play OVER 129 in Syracuse vs Middle Tennessee @ 6:10 ET - Middle Tennessee State's explosion for 90 points against Michigan State certainly was not a complete fluke. The Blue Raiders have now scored at least 79 points in 3 of their last 4 games and have shot at least 54.7% from the field in ALL 3 of those games! The Blue Raiders are simply hot right now and also full of confidence after knocking off the Spartans. Certainly I am well aware of the tough defense that Syracuse can play with their 2-3 zone and I am also well aware that this could frustrate the Blue Raiders a bit early on in this game. However, Middle Tennessee State has some good size inside and this includes a true power forward in Reggie Upshaw. His ability to cause havoc in the middle of the zone defense that the Orange will employ is why I see the Blue Raiders as being able to break down this defensive scheme. The ability of MTSU to get some big points in the paint will force the zone to collapse some and that will open up some good looks for the dangerous outside shooters that the Blue Raiders have. MTSU is "feeling it" right now but their defense is nothing to write home about. The Blue Raiders have allowed at least 47% from the field in 7 of their last 12 games. The few defensive "gems" they had were against very bad teams. Against teams with a winning record, MTSU has given up at least 73 points in 6 of the last 7. Syracuse has scored at least 70 in five straight games and that was against tougher defenses than what they will face today. With this line set at around a half dozen for this game we also could see late fouls in a tight game leading to nice free throw opportunities as well. The fact is there is no reason this game shouldn't end up being a 75 to 70 type game which gets us well over the posted total here. MTSU coach Kermit Davis will have his team prepared to attack the Syracuse zone defense and there is no quit in these Blue Raiders so, even if they struggle with it early, they will get it figured out early enough to put up a bunch of points in this game. The Orange have a well-earned reputation for their defense but the over is 4-1 in all their tournament games this season and the over is 9-3 in their tournament games the last 3 years combined. Another one is very likely to occur Sunday. *10* OVER in Syracuse |
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03-12-16 | Michigan v. Purdue OVER 143 | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach March Madness #721 - *10* Top Play OVER 143 in Purdue vs Michigan @ 1 ET - When these teams first met, the total was set at 132 and it flew over the total by 25 points. Of course, in the next meeting, an adjustment was made (up to 143) but the game stayed well under the total as it only totaled 117 points. With that said, why is there no adjustment for today's total? Why did it stay at 143 after the last meeting flew under by 26 points? I will tell you why. Purdue learned it's lesson in the 2nd game with Michigan. The Boilermakers allowed the Wolverines to turn it into a slow-paced game and Purdue paid the price with an ugly loss where they totaled just 56 points. That is not going to happen again today. The Boilermakers know their best bet is to push the pace like they did in the first match-up with Michigan. Not only did Purdue score 87 points in that game, they also forced the Wolverines to try and run with them and it was proven that Michigan could not keep up. Now, the advantage in doing that again here is magnified and the Boilermakers know it. They know they are catching Michigan playing a 3rd game in 3 days and plus off of a huge upset win yesterday. Purdue had good rest before yesterday's game against Illinois plus it was a very easy win for the Boilermakers so they also got to rest key players. Everyone will be fresh for this game and Purdue will push the tempo all game long. They are extremely hot on offense right now as the Boilermakers are shooting "lights out" and have averaged 83.4 points per game. All 5 games went OVER the total! As for Michigan, although yesterday's game stayed under the total, the Wolverines previously were on a 10-1 run to the over in games played away from Ann Arbor! That high-scoring trend continues as Purdue looks to run them right out of the arena in this one. *10* OVER in Purdue |
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03-09-16 | DePaul v. Georgetown OVER 143 | Top | 53-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach March Madness #561 - *10* Top Play OVER 139 in Georgetown vs DePaul @ 7 ET - These teams have met 7 times the last 3 seasons and 6 of the games stayed under the total. That is helping to drive this number downward as money pours in on the under. This is giving even more value to the over as, the way these teams have been playing, I see no reason to expect anything other than a fast-paced game with the Hoyas putting up a ton of points and the Blue Demons (playing loose and with nothing to lose and therefore shooting well) hanging within single digits most of the way. The game ultimately is likely to be decided by an amount very close to the spread on this game but I see great value with the total. Georgetown wrapped up the regular season with 9 overs in their last 11 games. The Hoyas allowed 72 points per game on the season and their defense has been particularly weak down the stretch run of the season. The Blue Demons allowed 75 points per game in the regular season. DePaul wrapped up the regular season with 9 overs in their last 10 games. The Blue Demons, even though their point totals weren't overly impressive overall, did shoot the ball well in the final weeks of the regular season. A couple of big games with outside shots falling (even against tougher teams in the Big East to wrap up the season schedule) certainly gives DePaul some extra confidence on the offensive end heading into this game. The issue for the Blue Demons is that their porous defense stops no one. The over is 7-2 this season (and 23-8 the last 3 seasons) in Blue Demons games when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. The Hoyas are also 5-2 to the over this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. In other words, a fantastic performance from either defense should not be expected here. *10* OVER in Georgetown |
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03-09-16 | Utah State v. Wyoming OVER 141 | 88-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach March Madness #547 - *8* OVER 140 in Wyoming vs Utah State @ 2 ET - Wyoming loves to shoot threes. The Cowboys attempted 38 threes in their regular season match-up with the Aggies and they nailed 20 of them. Utah State was a solid 7 of 15 from three point land in that game. In games away from home the Cowboys are averaging 10 three pointers made per game while the Aggies are averaging 9 three points made per game. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and that includes their conference tourney match-up last March. Wyoming comes into this game having gone over the total in 9 straight games and 11 of its last 12. Utah State comes into this game having gone over the total in 15 of its last 22 games. The Cowboys have a number of players suspended for this game but the most impacting is simply a couple of reserve players. This could impact the Cowboys should they be able to move deep into the tourney but the fact they only have 7 scholarship players available for today's game should not be impacting. Wyoming has their starters and key scorers available and I look for plenty of offense in this one. The over is 6-1 in Wyoming's last 7 games played on a neutral court. Also, the Cowboys played 7 games this season where the total was posted in the 140 to 149.5 range and the over was a PERFECT 7-0 on the season. The Aggies play this game with road loss revenge and the over is a PERFECT 4-0 this season and 9-4 the last three seasons combined when Utah State is looking to avenge a road defeat. *8* OVER in Wyoming |
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03-08-16 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 136.5 | 66-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach March Madness *8* OVER 135.5 in Florida State vs Boston College @ 2:30 ET - Florida State should have no trouble putting up a solid point total here but I would not be surprised at all to see Boston College stay within about a dozen points of the Seminoles in this one. That is why the play here is the over. The Noles are among 12 ACC teams that have an overall winning record on the season. Among those 12 teams the Seminoles 73.3 points allowed per game ranks as the worst! As bad as the Eagles have been this season, the fact that Florida State does not impress as a defensive foe is the reason I expect Boston College to get their fair share of points in this one. FSU failed to cover 5 of their last 7 games. In the 5 non-covers they allowed an average of 80 points per game. The Eagles covered 2 of their last 3 games and shot 48% and 49%, respectively, in the two games they covered. Boston College totaled over 70 points in each of those two games and if FSU wins this game by 13, which is what is forecast by the odds makers, we just need to get Boston College into the low 60s to nail this over. I look for BC to get well into the 60s and I look for Florida State to play an up tempo game against a team that they know they can run right out of the arena. That means the Noles should get into the 80s here. FSU went over the total in 7 of their last 11 games. The over is 7-3 in Boston College games in March the past three seasons combined. The over is 6-1 in Seminoles games when they are off of a win in ACC action. *8* OVER 135.5 in Florida State |
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02-29-16 | Kansas v. Texas OVER 141 | Top | 86-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 141 in Texas vs Kansas @ 9 ET - The Longhorns have made some noise with some big game wins on their home floor this season. However, it has been their offense that has been the key to those wins moreso than the defense. The lone exception to that just happened when the Horns knocked off Oklahoma on Saturday and held the Sooners to 63 points. Prior to that, in home games against Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, and North Carolina the Longhorns allowed an average of 82 points per game and yet they got the win in 3 of those 4 games. Looking at their 5 home games against the aforementioned teams, Texas scored at least 76 points in all but one of the games. They allowed at least 78 points in all but one of the games. The over was on a 4-0 run in Horns games before the rare, solid performance on defense against OU. The Jayhawks have been an "under team" this season and yet Kansas has been shooting the ball very well over their last 10 games. Kansas has hit about 50% from the field in their last 10 games combined! The Jayhawks have averaged 75.4 points per game during this stretch and Texas won't be able to slow them down. Kansas put up 76 points in the first meeting between the teams and that was even with shooting only 40% from the field. The Jayhawks now are "on fire" compared to the way they were shooting back then. In 12 games as an underdog this season, Texas games have stayed under the total just 4 times. When the Horns are a in a line range of pick 'em to +3 the over has gone 7-3. The Jayhawks are 3-2 to the over this season when playing with just one day of rest between games. With both teams off big wins Saturday I would not be surprised to see some lax defense from each team in this one as they are still riding those emotional highs and it's all about the offensive production in this one. The Jayhawks feel no one can keep up with them and UT knows their big upsets at home have been keyed by strong performances on offense. The tempo will be pushed by both teams in this one. *10* OVER in Texas |
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02-28-16 | Duke v. Pittsburgh OVER 147.5 | Top | 62-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 147.5 in Pittsburgh vs Duke @ 2 ET - There is a unique statistical anomaly relating to this play for both teams and that is what made it simply too good to pass up on based on the value it is offering. Duke has stayed under the total in five straight games even though they have allowed 48% or better from the field in 3 of their past 4 games. Pittsburgh has stayed under the total in eight of their last ten games even though they have allowed 47% or better from the field in seven of those ten games! This is one of those rare statistical anomalies and now you have two teams matched up with the same trend going and that spells OVER today. Neither team has been playing very well defensively and yet the totals on their games have stayed under the total. The result is value for the over today. The total on today's game opened up close to 150 in some books but already has dropped down from that. This is offering some good line value as both teams should put up big points today. Duke has been shooting well from three point land, even on the road, and the Panthers are known for having their best games on offense when they are at home. Pitt won't be able to slow down the explosive Duke offense but look for the Panthers offense to keep them in this game in what should be an up-tempo entertaining affair. The over is 6-1 in Duke road games the past three seasons that have a posted total in the 145 to 149.5 range. The over is 25-13 in Pittsburgh home games the past three seasons. *10* OVER in Pittsburgh |
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02-27-16 | Richmond v. Duquesne OVER 155 | Top | 83-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB #619 - *10* Top Play OVER 155 in Duquesne vs Richmond @ 6 ET - This total dropped from a 162.5 to a 155 and that easily made it "go time" with this over as the initial number was easily well within the range of where this total should be posted at. Yes it is a big number but Duquesne is used to playing crazy, high-scoring games and, since the Dukes are at home they will be controlling the tempo in this one. Richmond will gladly be "along for the ride" as they can also put up points in a hurry and the Spiders have shown for much of this season that they love to get involved in shootouts. Richmond has allowed 76 points per game on the road this season but if you take out the aberration (a snoozefest at St Louis) they truly allow an average closer to 80 points per game in their typical road games. They will likely allow at least that today as they've allowed at least 82 points in 5 of their past 6 road games! Duquesne loves  to run and gun as shown by the fact that they've allowed 86 points per game in their last 6 games. The Dukes have averaged 81.4 points per game in their last 12 games and with the mediocre season that each of these teams had there is no reason to expect any resistance from the play in the defensive end for either team. It should truly be a wide open affair where the teams are just trying to maximize points by quickly getting down the court and firing away. The Dukes are off of an under but had previously gone over in 11 of their last 12. The over is 8-3 in Spiders games when they enter the game having not covered the spread in any of their three prior games. The over is 7-1 in Dukes games this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. *10* OVER in Duquesne |
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02-24-16 | George Washington v. Richmond OVER 147.5 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB #525 - *10* Top Play OVER 147.5 in Richmond vs George Washington @ 7 ET - The early line move on this total has been downward from an opener of 150 to the 147.5 it sits it as of early Wednesday morning. The fact the total opened at 150 is a bit of a key number in the sense that this is when college totals tend to look a little high to average observers. In my mind this was some "bait" thrown out there by the odds makers and it's been taken as the early action has come in on the under to drive this total down. I'll take advantage on the other side of this move with the over. Even though the first match-up between these teams was a double overtime game, the teams did combine for a solid 148 points in regulation. I look for this one to get well above that in the 40 minutes. Richmond has nothing to lose here and will play a loose game with an attacking style on the offensive end. George Washington is seeking revenge for the double-OT home loss to the Spiders and, for the Colonials, this is a key game due to their lofty standing in the Atlantic-10 standings. George Washington needs this win and they win games with offense, not defense, so this match-up will feature both teams being happy to push the tempo. Don't be fooled by the paltry 50 points that the Colonials allowed on Sunday as that game against the worst team in the Atlantic-10. Prior to that game, George Washington had allowed high shooting percentages and an average of 74 points per game in their three prior games. The offense of the Colonials has been clicking as they've shot the ball well in 5 of their past 6 games and they come into Richmond with plenty of confidence after putting up 90 versus LaSalle Sunday. The Spiders defense has been ripped to shreds in their past two games but they have shot at least 51.8% from the field or better in each of their past 4 games. Perfect set-up for a nice over here with two confident offenses squaring off in what should be a "run and gun" affair. The over is 5-1 in Colonials games this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The over is 16-9 in George Washington games the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The over is 7-3 in Richmond's home games this season. The over is 8-2 in Spiders games the past three seasons when they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 games or more. Richmond has failed to cover each of their last 3 games and look for tonight's game to see both teams pushing the pace for the victory in this match-up with a "pick em" line. *10* OVER |
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02-23-16 | Rhode Island v. Davidson OVER 149.5 | Top | 54-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB #711 - *10* Top Play OVER 149.5 in Davidson vs Rhode Island @ 6 ET - With these teams in the middle of the pack and looking forward to the Atlantic 10 Tournament, this game should be played out as a "wide-open affair" early Tuesday evening. That means not a lot of defensive pressure and plenty of open looks and both of these teams can "score it" as they have proven time and time again this season. Rhode Island is averaging 70 points per game this season and Davidson is averaging 80 points per game on the season. Those averages put this game close to the posted total but what should push it well over is the situation. Not only the expectation of a fast-paced game, it is the fact the Rams have shot the ball very well in their past five games and averaged 74 points per game. The Rhode Island defense has allowed each of their past three opponents to hit better than 50% from the field. Davidson has shot "lights out" in three of their past four games but also has allowed 52% or better from the field in three of their past four games. The Wildcats have gone over the total in each of their past two games while the Rams have gone over the total in five straight games. The over is now 15-6 in February games for Rhode Island the past three seasons combined. Davidson is averaging 84 points per game at home this season but overall, on the season, the Wildcats allow an average of 79 points per game. Davidson will dictate the pace of this game at home and I look for a wild one as the over improves to 4-0 this season in Wildcats' Tuesday games. |
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02-21-16 | La Salle v. George Washington OVER 137.5 | 50-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 137.5 in George Washington vs LaSalle @ Noon ET - The last meeting between these teams was a year ago at LaSalle. The Colonials were a small favorite in that game and yet lost it outright by double digits. That means a little payback is on order for early Sunday action with George Washington hosting the Explorers. This means a high-scoring contest can be expected here because the Colonials are going to push the tempo as they look to exact revenge in a big way. The key to the play on the over here is that LaSalle, despite their poor record on the season, comes into this game with some confidence. This confidence for the Explorers comes not only from last year's solid win over the Colonials but also because LaSalle just knocked off St Bonaventure and put up 71 points in the process on Wednesday. The Explorers have averaged 66 points per game in their last 5 games but, prior to the win over St Bonnie, LaSalle had allowed 83.5 points per game in their 4 prior games. They won't be able to slow down the Colonials today either and I am looking for a 85-70 type game. George Washington is on a long-term run of 6-3 to the over when they are a home favorite in a range of 15.5 to 18 points. The Colonials are also 4-1 to the over this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. After rolling at Duquesne Wednesday in a game totaling 155 points, look for another fast-paced game Sunday. |
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02-17-16 | Dayton v. St. Joe's UNDER 143.5 | 70-79 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* UNDER 143.5 in St Joseph's vs Dayton @ 6 ET - This total has jumped up from an opener of 140 to a total of 143.5 as of early gameday morning. This is offering exceptional line value on the under. This is a key battle in the Atlantic 10 Conference featuring the two top teams and I look for defense to be the key emphasis on each side. St Joseph's has allowed 66 points or less in 7 of their past 9 games. Dayton has give up 66 points or less in 5 of their past 6 games. Last year's match-up totaled just 132 points. The season before the teams met three times (including the conference tourney) and none of the games totaled more than 137 points. In fact, the two regular season meetings averaged just 124.5 points per game. The Hawks are off of a big game offensively but will face a much tougher defense tonight and the under has cashed in 6 of 8 times when St Joseph's is off of a game where they scored 80 points or more this season. When the total is in the 140 to 149.5 range the past three seasons for these teams, the under has come in 16 of 27 times for the Flyers and 15 of 24 times for the Hawks. |
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02-16-16 | Bowling Green v. Northern Illinois OVER 136 | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #539 - *8* OVER 136 in Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green @ 8 ET - This line has dropped down quickly from an opener near 140 and this is offering substantial value on the over because these are not the Huskies of old. Northern Illinois used to be known for ugly basketball but they had a surprisingly solid start this season and the offense has led the way. That said, with the Huskies being at home tonight, I look for them to control the tempo here in what should be a very fast-paced game with Bowling Green. Northern Illinois has gone over the total in 6 straight games. The Huskies are averaging 74.4 points per game this season but their defense has certainly been an issue of late. Northern Illinois has allowed an average of 82 points per game in their last 6 games. The Falcons also are certainly not defensive stalwarts as they've allowed 72 points or more in 9 of their last 11 games. Like Northern Illinois, Bowling Green has been dealing with a recent losing streak in MAC action (the Huskies finally snapped their recent streak) but the Falcons did score 68 points in each of their past two defeats. While their most recent road loss featured an ugly performance on offense, Bowling Green had previously averaged 80 points per game in their four prior road games. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points this season, the Falcons are 3-1 to the over. The Huskies are 9-3 to the over in conference action this season. Look for another wild one tonight as they build off their victory Saturday and look to run and gun their way past a Falcons team that has lost 5 straight games. The Huskies will be aggressive tonight as they look to take advantage of facing a lesser foe tonight. |
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02-15-16 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 142.5 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 142.5 in Kansas vs Oklahoma State @ 9 ET - Kansas lost at Oklahoma State by 19 points as a 9 point favorite last month. Needless to say, the Jayhawks will have revenge on their minds tonight and I certainly expect them to get it. However, that is why the line is quite big on the side here with Kansas and, in my opinion, the significant line value in this match-up is on the total. The Jayhawks offense has been an absolute machine of late and they will look to run the Cowboys right out of Allen Field House tonight. Kansas has connected on at least 46.3% of their shots from the field in each of their last 6 games. The Jayhawks have had a lot of unders recently as they have been playing some solid defense to say the least. However, Kansas will have trouble slowing down the Cowboys as OSU ran with the Jayhawks in the first match-up and put up 86 points and they will be happy to "run and gun" again tonight. Oklahoma State has been involved in some ugly low-scoring games lately so the ability to turn this into a wide-open fast-paced affair will be met with open-arms by the players even though it will frustrate the Cowboys coach. The fact is, Kansas will dictate the pace in this game at home and the Jayhawks want to get their revenge by turning this game into a rout. That is why the value is with the over in this match-up. Kansas is a PERFECT 6-0 to the over the past three seasons combined when they are a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points! Oklahoma State is a PERFECT 2-0 to the over this season when off of a win against a conference foe. The Allen Field House will be rocking tonight with plenty of transition points and quick buckets and I look for an 85-70 type game in favor of the Jayhawks. *10* OVER in Kansas Monday. |
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02-15-16 | NC State v. Virginia OVER 129.5 | 53-73 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 129.5 in Virginia vs NC State @ 7 ET - Since scoring just 55 points in a loss at North Carolina a month ago, NC State has been in "high gear" on offense. The Wolfpack come into tonight's game at Virginia having averaged 82 points per game in their past 7 games. Each of NC State's last 6 games have gone over the total as defense hasn't exactly been a strong suit for the Wolpack of late. NC State has allowed each of their last 3 opponents to hit at least 47% from the field. The Wolfpack have given up an average of 83 points per game in their last six games. Virginia is well known for playing solid defense and they have given NC State problems in recent meetings. However, the Wolfpack offense has been functioning at the highest level seen in quite some time. NC State won't be able to stop the Cavaliers offense but the Wolfpack will be able to keep the pressure on in this game as their hot shooting has built a lot of confidence. NC State also has been getting a lot of production in the paint and that will help ensure they score much better than they have in past meetings with the Cavs. Virginia has shot an incredibly consistent 48% or better from the field in 7 of their past 8 games. The Cavaliers are off of a last-second loss at Duke on Saturday and Virginia also has huge games coming up with Miami, North Carolina, and Louisville still up ahead on the docket. After the Duke game and with the Tar Heels up next, I just don't see the Cavs having the defensive intensity to completely shutdown the Wolfpack offense in this one. But certainly Virginia is going to score a pile of points against the porous NC State defense and that means this one should fly over the low total. *8* OVER in Virginia Monday. |
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02-14-16 | Evansville v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 133 | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #855 - *10* Top Play OVER 133 in Loyola-Chicago vs Evansville @ 4 ET - Evansville held a players only meeting after their home loss to Illinois State on Thursday. The Purple Aces were a 10 point fave in that game and yet lost OUTRIGHT by ten points! You can bet that Evansville will be ready to go Sunday. The Purple Aces know they need to do a better job of finishing around the basket and they'll also be happy to push the tempo in this game as they look to get easier shots by causing mayhem for the Ramblers in the transition game. The reason I am backing the over here rather than Evansville is because I think Loyola-Chicago, especially because they are on their home floor, will be "right there" with the Purple Aces throughout this game. The Ramblers are off of back to back wins and those both came on the road. That, of course, builds confidence and now Loyola-Chicago is back home where they've shot at least 48.9% from the floor in each of their past three games. In fact, before the disappointing performance on offense in the ugly win at Bradley, the Ramblers offense had shot over 50% from the field in their last three games overall. Loyola-Chicago is brimming with confidence right now and the first match-up between these teams this season totaled 140 points and the rematch, considering the situation for each club entering this match-up, should easily get to that number again. Each of these teams has gone over the total in 5 of its past 7 games and it will be the offenses leading the way again Sunday. In road games with a posted total between 130 and 134.5 points, the over is a long-term 21-6 in Evansville games! The past three seasons combined, when revenging a road loss versus an opponent, the over is 11-6 in Loyola-Chicago games. Evansville pushes the pace of this game and the Aces are an incredible 50.3% from the field on the season! |
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02-09-16 | Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 132 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #739 - *6* OVER 132 in Ohio State vs Northwestern @ 8 ET - The first game between these teams finished well under the total but the Wildcats actually took 67 shots in the game! Northwestern simply had a very poor shooting night as they scored just 56 points despite having plenty of opportunity for big buckets throughout the game. The Cats come into this game having rolling for 76.5 points per game in their past two games. Northwestern comes into this rematch confident as a result of the recent big point production. The problem for the Wildcats recently has been on the other end of the floor. They had a strong defensive effort against a poor Minnesota team but, in their three prior games, the Cats allowed an average of 83.3 points per game! The Buckeyes will take advantage as they are on their home floor and anxious to bounce back after back to back losses against two tough teams - Maryland and Wisconsin - that slowed down their production on offense. Ohio State had averaged 77 points per game in their 5 home games prior to the home loss to Maryland. That said, their offense should get right back on track against the Wildcats. The over is 4-1 this season when Northwestern is off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The over is 3-0 the past two seasons when Ohio State is a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the over is 3-1 this season in Buckeyes games when they are off of a loss to a Big Ten foe in their prior game. |
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02-08-16 | Louisville v. Duke OVER 147 | 65-72 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 147 in Duke vs Louisville @ 7 ET - The over is 5-1 in Cardinals road games this season. Though the Cards are off of a game where they allowed just 47 points it had a lot do with facing a horrible Boston College team. Now Louisville visits the most powerful offense in the conference. Duke is averaging 90.5 points per game at home this season and the Cards strong defensive performance against the Eagles certainly "won't hold much water" against the Blue Devils tonight. In fact, the over is 5-3 in Cardinals games this season when they are off of a game where the allowed 60 points or less. Duke has shot the three ball very well in each of their last two games but their defense hasn't exactly been "setting the world on fire" of late. The Blue Devils have given up an average of 78 points per game in their past 6 games and have not defended the perimeter well. 6 of Duke's last 7 opponents have combined to hit a very high percentage of 3-pointers. The one team, Georgia Tech, that the Blue Devils did manage to shut down from three point land still shot the ball very well and put up 71 points on Duke. The Blue Devils rely on their potent offense to win games for them and this should be a run and gun affair completely unlike the last meeting between these teams in Louisville a year ago. That one stayed under the total very easily but, at Duke tonight, this rematch flies over the total as the Cardinals also continue the hot shooting that has defined their road games this season. |
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02-07-16 | Houston v. Tulsa OVER 141 | 63-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 141 in Tulsa vs Houston @ 3 ET - The Cougars knocked off the Golden Hurricane in Houston by an 81-66 count about a week and a half ago. That game went over the total and there is no reason to doubt that the rematch in Tulsa will also go over the total. The Cougars might be without Rob Gray again on Sunday but, on Monday, they put up 71 points on SMU and that was without Gray. That game was the 4th time in their last 5 games that the Cougars had scored at least 71 points and shot at least 46.4% from the floor. Overall, the Cougars are averaging 76.4 points per game in their last five games. The Cougar defense has been somewhat suspect though as they have allowed 73.4 points per game in their last 7 games. Of course Tulsa is going to be fired up here as they seek revenge and the Golden Hurricane have scored at least 75 points in 4 of their past 7 games. The exceptions were the unusual result at Houston and then low-scoring games with Tulane (an awful team, ugly game) and Connecticut (a solid team that loves to play half-court games). In this match-up, it should be all about the run and gun as both teams will be happy to get up the floor quickly in transition in this game. We are getting some line value here because Tulsa's recent home games were against teams that like to slow it down. The last time the Golden Hurricane hosted a team similar to Houston (SMU), the game totaled 150 points. A similar result Sunday can be expected in Tulsa. |
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02-06-16 | St. Mary's v. San Diego OVER 127.5 | Top | 60-43 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #683 - *10* Top Play OVER 127.5 in San Diego vs St Mary's @ 9 ET - San Diego is well-known as a lower-scoring team and that, of course, is what is keeping this total quite low. The key to the value here with the over in this game is that St Mary's is off of a rare loss. The Gaels just suffered what was only their third loss in 21 games this season and they are none to happy about it. At halftime of their game at BYU, St Mary's had the lead and was on pace for scoring 74 points. The end result? The Gaels only finished with 59 points in the game and lost badly to the Cougars. As a result I look for a huge push from St Mary's today in terms of the tempo. After their prior two losses this season the Gaels responded with big efforts and got the win plus the game flew over the total each time as St Mary's averaged 85.5 points per game in those two games. San Diego is off of a low-scoring slugfest win over Pacific on Thursday. Prior to that game though, the Toreros had struggled on defense in 4 of their 5 prior games. Just look at the field goal percentage allowed in those 4 games and you'll see what I am talking about. Also, San Diego was on a 5-1 run to the over before the ultra-low-scoring win over the Tigers on Thursday. The Toreros have struggled defensively against good teams and that is why the over is on a 3-0 run in San Diego games against teams with a winning record. The over is also on a 4-1 run in St Mary's road games where the posted total is in a range of 120 to 129.5 points. With the Gaels ready to respond off of their 59 point performance Thursday, this one should fly over the total. |
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02-06-16 | Marquette v. Xavier UNDER 149.5 | 82-90 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #536 - *8* UNDER 149.5 in Xavier vs Marquette @ Noon ET - Look for Xavier to tighten up the defense after giving up 83 points to St John's on Wednesday. The Musketeers know they won't be able to get a win versus Marquette with the same type of effort on that end of the floor. The Golden Eagles did struggle on Wednesday at Seton Hall as they managed just 62 points against the Pirates. That's good news for under players here as Marquette's struggles are likely to continue on the road against the top team in the conference. The Golden Eagles also will be working hard for a stronger performance on the defensive end as Marquette had been playing solid defense in each of their prior 4 games before a huge letdown effort at Seton Hall. The under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams and both teams come into this one off of a disappointing efforts on the defensive end so I look for the focus to absolutely be there in this early game on Saturday. The Golden Eagles lost at home to Xavier last month and 9 of the last 12 games that Marquette has played with home loss revenge have resulted in an under. The under went 11-5 in Xavier's February games the past two seasons as that is always "crunch time" in the conference schedule. They need a big effort here on the defensive end (and so too does Marquette) and this game should easily stay under the inflated total. |
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02-04-16 | St. Mary's v. BYU OVER 151.5 | Top | 59-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #759 - *10* Top Play OVER 151.5 in BYU vs St Mary's @ 9 ET - The Cougars lost at St Mary's on New Year's Eve and they have already stated what they need to do to get revenge on Thursday night at home where they are 10-0 this season. BYU wants to attack on both ends of the floor. They know they must not allow the Gaels to slow the game down and turn it into a half court affair. The best odds for the Cougars to get a big home win tonight are if they push the tempo, play attacking defense, rebound well, and then look to get quick points in transition. Of course all of these key variables are attributes the Cougars try to employ each game at home and this has led to Brigham Young averaging 90.4 points per game on their home floor this season. I do not anticipate that the Gaels are going to be able to slow them down. The Cougars put up 74 points at St Mary's 5 weeks ago and that was even with a subpar shooting night that saw BYU connect on only 41.7% of their shots from the floor. BYU is shooting 48.3% from the field in home games this season and the Gaels are hitting a ridiculous 53.2% of their shots from the field on the season. This has led to a 78 points per game average for St Mary's on the year and their inside-outside game (thanks to having a talented big man down low) will again lead to big points tonight. There is no reason that each team can't get into the 80s tonight and that would push this one easily over the total. The Cougars are 11-3 to the over this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. BYU's offense gets the job done again tonight but St Mary's hangs right there with the Cougars throughout and that spells O-V-E-R! |
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02-03-16 | St. John's v. Xavier OVER 148 | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 148 in Xavier vs St John's @ 6:30 ET - St John's is one of the worst defenses in the Big East but caught a break Sunday when Villanova had a rare "off" shooting performance. Prior to that game against the Wildcats, the Red Storm had given up an average of over 80 points per game in their last 11 games. I look for Xavier to "go off" in this game with a huge performance on offense as their bench is known for huge production and yet had one of their worst games of the season when they did not score well in the 74-66 win at St John's last month. Xavier is averaging 80 points per game on the season and they've scored at least 84 points in more than half of their last 19 games. With that said, getting up in the 90s here for the Musketeers would not be a huge surprise. Additionally, the Red Storm are certainly not known for being a juggernaut on offense but St John's has shot the three ball well in 5 of their last 6 games. The Red Storm can at least keep the final score a little more respectable with a big performance from beyond the arc. I don't expect St John's to see a lot of pressure defense around the perimeter in this game as Xavier is likely to get caught looking ahead to their games against stronger foes like Marquette, Creighton, Butler, Providence, Georgetown, and Villanova. The Musketeers will happily just cruise to a 90-70 type win in this game and that has me looking only one way in this one...OVER! |
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02-02-16 | Akron v. Ohio OVER 147 | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 147 in Ohio vs Akron @ 7 ET Tuesday - The early move on this total has been downward from an opener of 150.5 all the way down to a 147 as of early Tuesday morning. That adds even more value to a fantastic spot for an over. The Zips have won four straight games and have shot the ball very well from three point land in all four of these victories. Akron has averaged 79 points per game during this hot streak and three of the four games went over the total. The Zips defense struggled in three of the four games and this was against weaker teams than what Akron is faced with tonight. Ohio University has been strong at home all season long and the Bobcats 10-1 mark on their home floor has been keyed by an offense averaging 78.5 points per game at home this season. Ohio's most recent game stayed under the total but 5 of the prior 7 games had gone over the total. The Bobcats allowed 82.4 points per game in those five games and there really is no reason that tonight's game should be anything less than an absolute shootout! Both teams shoot the 3-ball very well and Ohio U's defense beyond the arc has struggled badly this season. The over is 6-2 this season in Akron's games against teams with a winning record. Also, in a line range of a pick'em to a -3 the Zips last 7 games resulted in 6 overs. The over is 7-3 this season in Ohio's games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, in games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 149.5 points, the Bobcats last 19 games resulted in 14 overs! |
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02-01-16 | NC State v. Florida State OVER 147 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 147 in Florida State vs NC State @ 9 ET - The over is 6-2 in NC State's last 8 games. The Wolfpack have been shooting very well from beyond the arc in their past 4 games and this has helped lead the way to an average of 81 points per game in their last 4 games. The issue for NC State has been not getting enough stops on the defensive end. The Wolfpack have a 2-7 mark in ACC action and a big reason for that record is that NC State has allowed 80 points per game in their 7 conference losses. Trying to slow down Florida State tonight is certainly likely to be an issue. The Seminoles are averaging 84 points per game on 50% shooting in games on their home floor this season. Florida State already put up 85 points in a road win at NC State last month and the Noles are fully capable of another big performance with more hot three point shooting (9 of 17 in the first meeting) in tonight's contest on their home floor. The over is 4-2 the past three seasons and 37-25 long-term in NC State games where they are playing with home loss revenge. The Wolfpack lost 85-78 to the Seminoles last month and another high-scoring game is on tap tonight as I look for NC State to shoot much better from three point land in this match-up. They've been "feeling it" from beyond the arc in recent games as noted above and the FSU defense may not be all that great tonight as they "relax" against a team they've already beaten this season. |
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01-31-16 | Wichita State v. Evansville OVER 138.5 | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 138 at Evansville vs Wichita State @ 4 ET - The Purple Aces have proven time and time again that they are absolutely capable of shooting "lights out" especially when they are on their home floor. Evansville lost at Wichita State early this month and that game stayed under the total. However, the Aces lost by just three points to the Shockers and Evansville has the confidence on their home floor to push the pace a little more. I look for the Purple Aces, who are averaging 82 points per game at home this season, to push the pace in this one as they look to exploit the friendly confines of their home arena. Evansville is averaging 83 points per game at home this season and has shot 53.4% overall at home with a sizzling 39.2% accuracy rate from beyond the arc. This is a big game in Missouri Valley Conference action and the Shockers certainly will be ready to go as well. Wichita State is averaging 74.5 points per game this season and the Shockers have averaged 72.5 points per game in their last 6 meetings with the Aces. Evansville has really closed the gap in terms of talent level between these teams and that's why the recent series dominance of Wichita State is unlikely to continue. These teams first meeting was decided by just 3 points and I look for another close game here and one that is played at a fast pace as the Purple Aces will be hustling down the floor and jacking up threes - something they excel at. With that said, this game should easily eclipse the total! |
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01-31-16 | Villanova v. St. John's OVER 136.5 | 68-53 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 136.5 at St John's vs Villanova @ Noon ET - Villanova will be fired up after their first loss in conference action in over a year. Imposing their will against a rebuilding St John's team that is still seeking it's first conference win of the season should not be a problem for the Wildcats. However, I am certainly not fond of laying 20 points on the road no matter what the situation. What I do like in this situation is the over. The Red Storm will not be able to slow the frenetic pace that the Wildcats will employ in this game. Last season the Cats averaged 97.5 points per game against St John's and I look for this game to be another case of the Red Storm just being "along for the ride" per se. The Red Storm have had some ugly performances on offense of late. However, St John's has made at least 37.5% of their threes in four of their last five games. The best shot the Red Storm have at hanging around in this game is to get hot from beyond the arc and knock down some threes because Villanova can be expected to get some easy twos throughout this game with plenty of points in transition and plenty of open looks as St John's does not match up well with the Wildcats. The over is 22-6 in Villanova's last 28 road games! St John's, when off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less, has gone 11-4 to the over the past three seasons. |
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