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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-21-21 | Diamondbacks v. Reds -166 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -166 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Arizona Diamondbacks. This game will follow the resumption of yesterday's suspended game (which Arizona was winning, 5-4, in the top of the 8th inning). The listed pitchers are Tyler Mahle and Merrill Kelly. Mahle came into the Majors in 2017 as a 7th round pick of the Reds with (not surprisingly) with very little fanfare. His first three seasons in the league did little to change the lack of excitement around him as the RH posted some uninspiring numbers over that span. But in 2020, the then-25-year-old Mahle very quietly put a nice little season together with a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 10 games (nine starts), while improving his strikeout rate to a career-high 11.3 per nine innings. That is, until this season when Mahle has become even more of a K machine, punching out over 14 batters every nine innings thus far, in his three starts covering 14 innings. Mahle gets start number four this evening, and it will be his second of the season vs. the D-Backs. In his first outing on April 9, he went four scoreless innings in a 6-5 Cincy victory. Mahle has also done his best work at home lately as the Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts here at Great American Ball Park. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-20-21 | Rangers v. Angels -198 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Texas Rangers. We will forgive Shohei Ohtani for only having one start in 2021 up to this point. The 26-year-old Japanese superstar has been busy crushing balls, driving in runs, and even stealing the occasional base as a DH this season. There may not be much argument anymore that Ohtani is more valuable to this club as an everyday hitter. But given the state of the Angels' rotation and the fact that Ohtani is probably good enough to be a #3 starter on most teams, he will continue to get regular starts assuming he's healthy. Start number two for the RH comes tonight against a Rangers team which has had some production issues lately (notwithstanding Monday's 6-run outburst). Veteran RHP Jordan Lyles will get the start for Texas and, although his ERA (4.70) is better than last season, that's not saying much. In 2020, Lyles led the league with 45 earned runs allowed, which resulted in a scary 7.02 ERA. And his teams are a horrid 24-50 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog in his career starts. Despite their victory yesterday, the Rangers are still just 1-5 in their last six games vs. RH starters, and 44-75 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) their last 119 on the road. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-21 | Giants v. Phillies -151 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -151 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Francisco Giants. Logan Webb is a perfect example why you need to ignore spring training statistics. Webb's numbers this spring were completely off the charts -- one run on seven hits in 17 innings (a 0.53 ERA) with 22 strikeouts and two walks. Pretty impressive, right? The only problem is that the 24-year-old Giants RH has a career MLB ERA of over five runs, and a career WHIP of over 1.50 (his minor league numbers weren't much better for the most part). And so far this season, Webb is 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in three appearances, including two starts, covering 11 1/3 innings. He has a tough assignment tonight as well, having to face a Phillies team which will put a proven starter on the mound in veteran RH Zach Wheeler. Wheeler is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts covering 18 innings. The Giants took the first game of this three-game series last night, but the Phillies are still 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two here at Citizens Bank Park. Take Philadelphia. |
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04-20-21 | Dodgers -190 v. Mariners | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Seattle Mariners. Los Angeles lost back-to-back games for the first time last night. The Dodgers certainly had their chances, but were unable to get the key hits they needed to mount a comeback win. In the 9th inning, Mookie Betts was hit in his forearm by a pitch, so it would not be a surprise if he is held out of this afternoon game. But we'll still back the defending champs today, as Seattle is an awful 27-49 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. left-handed starters, and 27-64 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) as underdogs of +150 (or more).  And Julio Urias is one of the best (and one of my favorite) lefties in baseball. The Dodgers are 3-0 behind Urias this season and, in his career, are 10-3 (+4 games on the moneyline) as road favorites with him on the mound. Take the Dodgers. |
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04-19-21 | Dodgers -190 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Seattle Mariners. While most of the attention on the Dodgers' stacked pitching staff has been heaped on Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, young Dustin May just goes out and does his thing. And May's thing is striking out hitters with some of the nastiest pitches in the league. At the end of the day, it might be May who actually possesses the best pure stuff on this team. It's for that reason that the Dodgers will be cautious with the 23-year-old RH and he will likely be on a strict pitch count in most, if not all of his starts. May has a stellar 1.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in two starts covering 10 1/3 innings. And start number three will come tonight against the Mariners in the first of a two-game series. Not surprisingly, tonight will be May's first career appearance vs. Seattle and it's a good bet that pitcher-friendly Safeco Field will agree with the young fireballer. May is undefeated (3-0) with a 1.93 ERA in eight games (five starts) against AL opponents. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Â
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04-19-21 | Brewers +136 v. Padres | Top | 3-1 | Win | 136 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres. The Padres salvaged their series with their Division rivals L.A. by taking Game 3 on Sunday (and beating last season's Cy Young Award winner in the process). But one day later they have to face another one of the NL's best in the Brewers' RH Brandon Woodruff. And Milwaukee comes into this three-game series with quite a chip on its shoulder after losing two of three to the lowly Pirates. Woodruff has improved his numbers every year he's been in the Majors. And so far 2021 is no different as the 28-year-old has posted a terrific 2.12 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in three starts covering 17 innings. Perhaps most important is he has yet to give up a home run and has a 6.33 K:BB ratio (19 Ks and 3 walks). RH Joe Musgrove did hurl the first no-hitter in the league this season (and first in Padres history) but his numbers vs. the Brewers are not good. In five career starts, covering 29 1/3 innings against the Crew, Musgrove is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA. Take Milwaukee in this underdog role. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.Â
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04-18-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +112 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 112 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tonight is a chance for Blake Snell to get some revenge. Snell was on the mound against the Dodgers in last year's World Series Game 6 -- the final game of the series that was won by L.A. despite Snell pitching brilliantly. And this afternoon, the 28-year-old southpaw will have arguably a better team behind than he did when he was starting for the Rays last fall. The Padres finished last season with the second-best record in the NL and they have improved themselves over the off-season and figure to give the Dodgers -- favored by everyone to return to the World Series -- a run for their money. Snell has a 4.35 ERA through his first three starts but that number is a bit misleading. He lasted less than an inning in his last start which was in Pittsburgh rather than pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In his two starts here, Snell has allowed two earned runs in 9 2/3 IP with 16 K's. Snell's teams are also 14-6 (+3 games on the moneyline) in his last 20 home starts. And he has a career 2.25 ERA vs. the Dodgers in three starts. Los Angeles will hand the ball to RHP Trevor Bauer this afternoon. Unfortunately, Bauer is a dismal 0-4 vs. the Padres with an ERA north of 5 runs a game. Finally, Snell's teams are 27-19 (plus 8 games on the moneyline) with him on the hill, when the odds range from +125 to -125, while Bauer's teams are a poor 18-25 (minus 8 games on the moneyline) on the road in the same price range. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-18-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -176 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the St. Louis Cardinals. There's no doubt that Aaron Nola is the ace of the Phillies' staff, but with starters like Zach Wheeler and an improving Zach Eflin by his side, the team is hoping that the 27-year-old RH won't have to shoulder as much of the load this season. Although he's still looking for his first win, Nola is putting up his normal ace-like numbers with a 3.45 ERA, 10.3 strikeout rate, and 6.00 K:BB ratio through his first three starts. He's had plenty of success against the Cards in his career, going 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in six starts vs. St. Louis covering just over 38 innings. This afternoon is the rubber match of a three-game series and, despite the Cards victory on Saturday, the Phillies are 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 4-2 in the last six here at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils are also 19-7 (plus 6 games on the moneyline) in Nola's last 26 starts as a home favorite of at least -150. Meanwhile, the Cards are 6-11 in their last 17 as an underdog of +150 or higher. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-17-21 | Giants +120 v. Marlins | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Miami Marlins. Remember Aaron Sanchez? The RHP broke into the Majors in 2014 as a 21-year-old with the Toronto Blue Jays. Sanchez went on to post three solid seasons culminating with his 2016 campaign in which he went 15-2 with a league-leading 3.00 ERA and an All Star selection. But in the three seasons that followed, Sanchez went 10-23 with an ERA right around five runs as he struggled to get back to the form he displayed in his early years. Now with the Giants, Sanchez is looking to resurrect his career. And so far 2021 has been a return to form for the 28-year-old. It's a small sample size, but in two starts covering 10 innings, Sanchez has posted a 2.70 ERA, with three ER on nine hits, with seven strikeouts and only one walk. RHP Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the Marlins this evening. Miami is 7-14 in Alcantara's last 21 home starts. And the Marlins are also a wallet-breaking 46-71 (-13 games on the moneyline) in their last 117 home games. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-17-21 | Indians +121 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Cincinnati Reds. RHP Triston McKenzie pretty much burst on the scene in the COVID-shortened 2020 season for the Indians. In eight games -- six starts -- the 23-year-old string bean (he's listed at 6'5" and 165 lbs) posted some solid numbers with a 3.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 42 strikeouts and nine walks, in 33 1/3 innings. McKenzie started out 2021 with a relief appearance and then got a start his next time out, last Monday, against the White Sox. He's lined up for his second start this afternoon against Sonny Gray and the Reds. It will be Gray's season debut as the veteran RHP has been hampered by a back injury which limited his Spring training to just two innings. With Trevor Bauer gone to the Dodgers, Gray has the talent to become the co-number one starter on the team this season, but he will likely need a few starts to get to that level. Despite their surprising early success this season, the Reds are just 33-52 (-23 games on the moneyline) in their last 85 day games. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-16-21 | Indians v. Reds -107 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Cleveland Indians. The Reds will hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman tonight, while Cleveland will start Logan Allen. This will be Allen's first road start this season. And he's been a much worse pitcher away from home (8.10 ERA) compared to his outings at home (3.60 ERA). Hoffman will be making his second start at home, and his first one was brilliant, as he gave up just 1 run over 5 innings, in a 12-1 Cincy victory vs. the Cardinals. Overall, the Reds have won their last five at home. And that bodes well, especially given that Cleveland is a poor 18-24 (minus 7.4 games on the moneyline) on the road, when priced from +125 to -125. Take the Reds in this opening game of this 3-game series. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-16-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -135 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the St. Louis Cardinals. The final game of Philadelphia's series against the Mets was postponed due to weather on Thursday, and that does three things for the Phils. First, it allows them to skip meeting the best pitcher in NL in Jacob deGrom (although we actually liked the value of Eflin as a +220 underdog yesterday). Second, it gives RHP Zach Eflin an extra day of rest, which is not a bad thing, as the Phillies are 19-13 after a day off, while St. Louis is a poor 10-21 in the same situation. And, third, Eflin is now favored, and the Phillies are 18-10 (+4.4 games on the moneyline) as a favorite, with him on the mound. Eflin has been very good in his two starts so far this season. In 13 innings, he has a 3.46 ERA with 10 strikeouts and only two walks. The Cards will go with veteran RH Carlos Martinez who began life in the Majors as a starter before transitioning to the bullpen and is now back in the rotation. To say that Martinez's return to the rotation has been rough would be a big understatement. Last season, C-Mart started five games and went 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA. And so far through two starts in 2021, he is picking up where he left off in 2020, with an 0-2 record, 6.30 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP. St. Louis is also 1-4 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven in Philly. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-14-21 | Tigers v. Astros -230 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -230 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Detroit. After dropping Games 1 + 2 in this three-game series, the Astros will look to salvage things with a win in Game 3, tonight. Lance McCullers, Jr. will get the start for the Astros, and he's been a model of consistency in his two starts this season. McCullers went five innings in each start, and also gave up just one run, two hits and three walks in both of those starts! Tonight, McCullers will face a Tigers team, which will hand the ball to Michael Fulmer. Unfortunately for Detroit, Fulmer is 0-2 in his career vs. Houston, with an ERA north of 6 runs per game, and a WHIP of 1.79. The Tigers are a dreadful 43-133 (minus 32 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or higher), and 11-28 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) after allowing 2 or less runs in their previous game. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-14-21 | Phillies -113 v. Mets | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. Like any MLB starter, the Phils' RH Zack Wheeler wants to win every time he goes out to the mound. But the 30-year-old has got to feel an additional incentive whenever he faces the Mets. It was New York, after all, which decided to not give Wheeler a contract extension in 2019 after he had been there for his first seven MLB seasons. And when that contract season came to a head, Wheeler had just completed his second straight winning campaign and looked for certain like a pitcher who New York would want to lock up. But, instead, Wheeler was granted free agency and he ended up signing with the Phillies -- a move that no doubt he is happy with now. Wheeler went 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts in 2020. And he started out this season with a bang, tossing seven innings of one-hit ball in a shutout win against Atlanta. The Mets beat this Phillies team in both games of the double-header on Tuesday, but they are just 25-46 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) in their last 71 games as an underdog of +150 (or less). Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-14-21 | Reds -110 v. Giants | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the San Francisco Giants. Yesterday, we played on the Giants behind Kevin Gausman, and were rewarded with a 7-6 come-from-behind victory. Today, we'll switch gears, and take the road team, Cincinnati. The Reds will hand the ball to RHP Tyler Mahle, who has been terrific this season. Mahle has made two starts, and threw four shutout innings last Friday at Arizona, and gave up just two earned runs over five innings vs. the Cardinals, back on April 3. Today, Mahle will match up against the Giants' Johnny Cueto, who has a career 4.50 ERA vs. the Reds. Cincy is 11-6 behind Mahle, when installed as a favorite. Take the Reds. |
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04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -160 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers' Corbin Burnes has been as effective as any pitcher in baseball through his first two starts. He's faced the Twins and Cardinals, and has given up just 1 run over 12 1-3 innings, while allowing just two baserunners (!!!), and striking out 20 batters. Today, Burnes will take on Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. Chicago's a poor 26-38 on the division road, and 140-284 (minus 42 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +150 (or higher), while Milwaukee is a dominant 255-134 (+25 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -150 (or more). Take the Brewers this afternoon. |
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04-13-21 | Reds v. Giants -102 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Cincinnati Reds. Buck Showalter may be a well-liked personality around baseball, but it seems that the verdict is in when it comes to his handling (and that of his coaches) of pitchers when he was managing the Orioles. RHs Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman were two of the hottest prospects coming up for the O's at about the same time and they could never get on track in their time in Charm City. But now that they've both left, Bundy and Gausman are blossoming on the West Coast -- looking like the pitchers the O's thought they could be. Gausman is now in San Francisco and he broke out big last season in 12 games (10 starts), and so far he looks even better at age 30 this season. In his two starts, Gausman sports a 1.32 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with 11 K's and 3 BBs in just under 14 innings. Start #3 comes tonight against the surprising Reds and their ace, RH Luis Castillo. Unfortunately for Cincy, it is 0-5 in Castillo's last five starts as an underdog/PK). Meanwhile, Gausman's teams are 31-18 (+9 games on the moneyline) at home in his starts, when priced as a favorite of -150 or less. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-13-21 | Indians -100 v. White Sox | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox. We're less than two weeks into the season, but you'd be hard-pressed to get a pitching match-up in the AL as good as this one the rest of the year. When it comes to American League hurlers, it doesn't get much better than RHPs Shane Bieber of the Tribe and Lucas Giolito of the White Sox. Bieber won the AL Cy Young in the 2020 shortened season, while Giolito finished seventh. Neither one of these aces was at his best in his season debut, which is not surprising. What is surprising is that a Cleveland offense, which figured to be in rebuilding mode in its first season without superstar SS Francisco Lindor, has actually been fairly productive so far. Dating back to last season, the Indians have won six of the last seven meetings vs. Chicago, and two of those victories came in Bieber vs. Giolito match-ups, like tonight. The White Sox are 9-13 in Giolito's last 22 home starts, as well as 2-7 in his last nine starts as a home underdog (or PK). Meanwhile, Cleveland is 24-11 in Bieber's road starts. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-12-21 | Tigers v. Astros -225 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -225 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Detroit. Zack Greinke will get the ball tonight, as he looks to stop the bleeding for Houston, after it dropped its last two games on Friday + Saturday to the Oakland A's. The good news for Houston is that Greinke is as good as any pitcher in baseball when installed as a favorite, as his teams have gone 196-112 in his career, including 36-8 (+19 games on the moneyline) when priced as a favorite of -200 (or more). Meanwhile, Detroit is 42-133 (minus 34 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or more). Finally, Houston is 31-6 its last 37 when playing with a day off. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-12-21 | Angels -112 v. Royals | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Kansas City Royals. For years, the Angels had Mike Trout's bat in the line-up and not a whole lot more. Sure, future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols put in some very good seasons alongside Trout, but the offense was missing that spark plug to go with the best player in the game. But those days may be over and Trout may finally have some major help in the top half of the order in the form of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. In his fourth season in the Majors and with his injuries apparently behind him, the 26-year-old Ohtani is having a Trout-like campaign so far in 2021, showing both power at the plate and speed on the basepaths. Tonight, it will be veteran RH Alex Cobb getting his second start for L.A. as the Halos try to come back from a big 15-1 loss on Saturday. The Angels are 4-2 in the last six meetings and will face the Royals' Brady Singer, who was hit hard by the Rangers in his 2021 debut (3 1/3 IP, 6 R, 5H, 3 BB). KC is a poor 13-25 when priced from -125 to +125. and 67-106 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) vs. RHP. Take L.A. |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals. The fluid state of the Cards' rotation gives opportunity to talented pitchers who want a chance to show their stuff as a starter. Enter 28-year-old RH John Gant. Gant was a star out of the bullpen in 2019, going 11-1 with a 3.66 ERA despite not starting a single game (he also threw in three saves). Then in a short 2020 campaign, Gant showed that the previous year was no fluke as he posted a 2.40 ERA in 17 games, although his W-L record took a hit. Those numbers, combined with elbow injuries to Mikolas and Hudson, have enabled Gant to get a shot at starting. And in his first effort he didn't disappoint, throwing four scoreless innings in a Cards win over Miami last Tuesday. Normally a second start against a team like the Nats for someone like Gant might be concerning, but Washington seems to be in total disarray right now with a 1-5 record after a late start to its season due to COVID. The Nats are also 17-40 in their last 57 trips to St. Louis. Take the Cards. |
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04-11-21 | Reds -110 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Roughly 10 games into the MLB season, there have been some surprising performances. But none have been more surprising than that of the Cincinnati Reds. After an off-season that saw their best player -- pitcher Trevor Bauer -- sign a free agent contract with the Dodgers, most people figured that 2021 would be a rebuilding year at best. And it still could be. But right now the Reds are sitting alone in first place in the NL Central with a 6-2 record. Tonight will be the rubber game in this three-game set with the D-Backs. And RH Jose DeLeon will get his second start for the Reds after a solid outing first time out in a Reds win over the Pirates last Monday. RH Luke Weaver also gets his second Arizona start of 2021. Once a promising prospect with the Cards, Weaver saw things completely unravel last season with the D-Backs as he went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA in 12 starts. Despite the loss last night, Cincy is 4-2 in the last six meetings here in Arizona. Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-21 | Phillies +128 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. After four MLB seasons where his performance as a starting pitcher ranged from poor to average, there were signs that RH Zach Eflin had turned a corner in the shortened 2020 campaign. In 11 games last season (10 starts), the 27-year-old posted career bests in ERA (3.97), WHIP (1.27), K rate (10.7) and K:BB ratio (4.67). In his only start so far in 2021, Eflin continued to shine, throwing seven sparkling innings, allowing one run on four hits with eight Ks and one walk. Eflin tries to keep it going tonight in his 11th career start against the Braves. And despite his lean early years in the league, Eflin is 5-3 with a nice 3.22 ERA vs. a very good Atlanta team in those 10 starts covering 58 2/3 innings. And in four previous starts here at Sun Trust Park, Eflin is 3-1. Despite their loss here last night, the Phillies are still 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Braves. More importantly, the Phillies are 8-1 in Eflin's last nine starts going back to August 18, 2020. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-10-21 | A's v. Astros -150 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -150 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. Nobody knew how the Astros would perform this season, being that they will face hostile fans at virtually every road venue since they were caught in a cheating scandal. But so far, this Houston team seems to have used the adversity to its advantage, getting off to a 6-2 start. And while the road fans may not be very friendly to them, the 'Stros will be greeted with nothing but love here at Minute Maid Park this season. RH Jose Urquidy didn't start pitching for the 'Stros until 2019 so he has been somewhat immune to the controversy and that's probably fine with him. More importantly, the 24-year-old is a very talented player with a bright future. After a very solid rookie season, Urquidy landed a full-time rotation spot in the shortened 2020 season and responded with a 2.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts covering just under 30 innings. The A's may have taken game one of this series last night, but they are still 1-6 in the last seven meetings with Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-09-21 | Nationals v. Dodgers -275 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Washington Nationals. When L.A. signed free agent Trevor Bauer this year it added one of the top arms in the game to an already dangerous roster. Almost as important however is that the addition of the NL Cy Young winner also takes some of the pressure off the younger studs on the Dodgers' deep pitching staff -- most notably Julio Urias and today's starter, RHP Walker Buehler. Buehler had a solid first start, throwing six quality innings in a Dodger win over Colorado. That start was in hitter-friendly Denver, so there's no doubt Buehler is looking forward to his 2021 home debut this afternoon in the Dodgers' home opener. It comes against a team that has had many challenges even though the season is only eight days old. The Nats' opening series with the Mets was postponed due to COVID. And they dropped two of three to the Braves this week as the rust was evident. The Dodgers are 18-4 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Buehler's last 22 starts when favored -200 (or higher), and 119-52 (+32 games on the moneyline) their last 171 vs. righties. Meanwhile, Joe Ross has not delivered in the underdog role (9-18, minus 7 games on the moneyline). Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-09-21 | Yankees -135 v. Rays | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. If the Rays could pick a starter to face on their season home opener, they likely would not choose RH Corey Kluber. Sure, the veteran -- who is beginning his first season with the Yankees after playing for the Rangers in 2020 -- is not the pitcher he was back in his Cy Young days. But the 34-year-old is still dangerous and capable of giving his team six+ quality innings every five days. More importantly, Kluber is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 10 career starts vs. Tampa covering 64 innings. Kluber got his Yankee career off to a solid start, throwing four innings while allowing one ER on five hits with five K's against the Jays last Saturday. Once a crafty southpaw who could get guys out with his off-speed pitches, 41-year-old Rich Hill is now on the downside of his career and could have a tough time in his first season in Tampa. New York is 11-4 (+6 games on the moneyline) in its last 15 coming off a one-run loss to a division rival. Take the Yanks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies -150 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. The Phillies got their season off to a 4-0 start, sweeping the Braves in three games and then taking the first of this series on Monday, despite the presence of Jacob deGrom on the mound for New York. The Phils finally lost on Tuesday, but they come back this afternoon with their ace, RHP Aaron Nola. The 27-year-old was in mid-season form in his first start last Thursday against Atlanta, throwing 6 2/3 quality innings, allowing two runs on six hits with six Ks and no walks. And if there's one thing Nola likes, it's starting games against the Mets. In 16 starts vs. New York, Nola is 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA, including 114 strikeouts and only 75 hits in just over 95 innings. Throughout his MLB career, Nola has loved pitching in his home park. In 72 starts here at Citizens Bank, Nola is 33-17 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 455 2/3 innings (vs. 25-23 with a 4.02 ERA in 68 starts elsewhere). The Mets are also a woeful 6-20 in their last 26 games as a road underdog of at least +125. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-21 | Blue Jays -183 v. Rangers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -183 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. Two seasons ago, Hyun Jin Ryu had a ridiculous season with the L.A. Dodgers, almost winning the NL Cy Young award while leading his team to yet another NL West Division title. Ryu signed with the Jays as a free agent in December of that year and proceeded to have another outstanding, albeit shortened, campaign in 2020 with Toronto. Now with an even better team around him, and a full season with which to work, Ryu may be poised to do with the Jays what he did with the Dodgers. His first start of 2021 was solid (5 1/3 IP; 2 ER; 5 Ks; 0 BBs) and he looks to follow that up this afternoon with another good outing. Ryu's career record in day games is even more dominant than his overall numbers. In 39 daytime starts covering 227 innings, the veteran LHP is 21-9 with a 2.66 ERA with 222 strikeouts and only 40 walks. And Ryu's teams are 10-2 (+8 games on the moneyline) in his last 12 daytime starts. Take the Blue Jays. |
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04-07-21 | Twins -165 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. The Twins are my pick this season (at 22-1 odds) to win the World Series, so we will no doubt be on the Twins often this season. Today, we'll back Minnesota's veteran righty, Kenta Maeda. In his first start of the season, Maeda was effective, as he gave up just 1 run in 4 1-3 innings vs. the Brewers. Here, Maeda will be matched-up against the Detroit Tigers' Matt Boyd. This is a favorable spot for Minnesota, as Detroit is a horrible 25-64 (minus 27 games on the moneyline) as a home underdog, while Maeda's teams are 36-19 (+ 8 games on the moneyline) when priced from -125 to -175. Take the Twins. |
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04-06-21 | Rays -145 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. People in Pittsburgh lament the fact that the Pirates let Gerrit Cole go to the Yankees via free agency. But a much bigger gaffe by the Bucs was a year earlier when they traded Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and uber-prospect Shane Baz to Tampa for Chris Archer. We still have no idea what the Pirates thought they were going to do with Archer but sure as heck know what the Rays have been able to do with Glasnow and Meadows. Tonight, the 6'8", 27-year-old RHP gets his second start after a stellar 2021 debut last Thursday in which he threw six innings of one-hit, shutout ball in a 1-0 Tampa win over the Marlins. The Sox bounced back last night in game one of this series (after being swept by the Orioles) but this team has more question marks at this point than it does answers. And last year the Rays gave the Sox all kinds of trouble, taking seven of the 10 meetings. The Rays are 12-3 (+9 games on the moneyline) in Glasnow's last 15 road starts. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-27-20 | Rays +129 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Dodgers. This selection might be a surprise to many, given we had the Dodgers (at 4-1 odds) as our preseason pick to win the World Series. But faithful followers know I'll always follow the numbers, and it's hard to bypass Tampa as an underdog tonight. The Dodgers really needed a win in Game 5 behind Clayton Kershaw, and they got it. Now they go into Game 6 tonight knowing that if they lose, they will still have RH ace Walker Buehler -- who was completely dominant in Game 3 -- available to start a Game 7. They also likely will not use Julio Urias tonight so they can have their brilliant young southpaw available out of the bullpen, if needed, tomorrow. So going opposite LH ace Blake Snell of the Rays tonight will be an assortment of pitchers beginning with RH Tony Gonsolin. If they're to have a chance tonight, the Dodgers will need Gonsolin to step up. After a regular season in which he posted a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts), Gonsolin has logged just an 0-2 record and 9.39 ERA in three post-season appearances. After struggling against the Yankees, Snell has settled down and pitched very well in the ALCS, as well as in his only World Series start vs. L.A. in Game 2, a 6-4 Tampa victory. That Game 2 was six days ago, so Snell and Gonsolin will be pitching with an extra day of rest. That bodes well for Tampa tonight, as it's 36-19 (+11 games on the moneyline) behind Snell, when the southpaw was working with an extra day or two of rest (but a poor 26-33 otherwise (minus 12 games on the moneyline)). The Dodgers, meanwhile, have been profitable vs. righties over the last three seasons, but NOT against lefties (91-62, minus 11 games on the moneyline). In contrast, the Rays have been VERY profitable vs. righties (39-16, +19 games on the moneyline), but not against lefties (12-12, minus 5 games). The Dodgers are 3-0 in this World Series in games started by Tampa righties, but 0-2 in the games started by Tampa southpaws. Take the Rays to win Game 6. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total. Game 4 was the most exciting contest (by far) in this World Series, and surely ranks as one of the best World Series games over the last 20 years. After games dominated by pitching and defense on the winning side, the batting orders of these two teams took center stage on Saturday night with multiple lead changes and plenty of long balls. At least part of that was due to the fact that the Rays threw a bullpen game and the Dodgers didn't have either of their top two starters available (although Urias pitched well enough). But tonight, we're back to LHP Clayton Kershaw for L.A. and RHP Tyler Glasnow for Tampa, so look for much more of a pitchers' duel. Kershaw was nothing short of spectacular in Game 1 of this series, allowing one run on two hits in six innings while throwing just 78 pitches before the bullpen took over. The biggest potential issue for Glasnow tonight is the fact that the Rays offense hasn't been giving the 27-year-old much love in this post-season. In Glasnow's last three starts (one ALDS, one ALCS, and one in this series) the Rays have plated two, three, and three runs. Meanwhile Kershaw has a 2.88 ERA this post-season. I expect both pitchers to be on top of their game. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total. When looking at who has the upper hand in the starting pitching match-up tonight, we're probably splitting hairs. The Dodgers' Walker Buehler has a 1.89 ERA in four playoff starts covering 19 innings while the Rays' Charlie Morton has an even more ridiculous 0.57 ERA in his three post-season starts so far (one against the Yankees and two vs. the Astros). Now put these two together on the same night in a pitchers' park such as Globe Life Field and the runs could truly be scarce. There have been a lot of interesting stats in this postseason, but perhaps none more mind-boggling than the fact that the Rays are in this World Series despite only batting .213 as a team in 16 playoff games. But when you look at the number of their games that have gone under the total, those numbers start to make more sense. In Tampa's last six games following a victory, the under is 5-1 and in its last seven vs. a RH starter, the under is 6-1. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have gone 'under' in nine of Buehler's last 10 starts, while 15 of Morton's last 19 starts (including the last five in a row) have gone 'under.' This will be a low-scoring contest. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-21-20 | Rays +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 140 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers took Game 1 behind some solid starting pitching from LH ace Clayton Kershaw and a bunch of timely hitting by just about everyone in the lineup. That's the good news for L.A. The not-so-good news is that Tampa has its LH ace -- Blake Snell -- ready to go tonight while Los Angeles has...Tony Gonsolin. Advantage Tampa. Snell will be making his first-ever World Series start. But he will be up to the task, as the former Cy Young Award Winner went 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 3.50 K:BB ratio in 11 regular season starts, covering 50 innings. And while those numbers may not match his 2018 Cy Young campaign, Snell definitely showed that he's back. In his career, Snell is 8-4 with a 2.07 ERA in 16 inter-league starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -169 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Tampa Bay Rays. The World Series is set as the Rays and Dodgers prepare to face for their first-ever post-season clash. This finals will look more like traditional seven-game series than the Championship Series did as it will follow a 2-3-2 format with one-day breaks after Games 2 and 5. Game 1 will start with RH Tyler Glasnow opposite LH Clayton Kershaw. After a very strong regular season, Glasnow has struggled a bit in the playoffs. Over four starts, Glasnow has a winning record at 2-1, but his ERA is a bit ugly at 4.66. In 13 1/3 innings, he's allowed 11 hits and seven walks, for a WHIP of 1.35. And Glasnow will have his hands full with a very good Dodgers line-up. This will be his first-ever start vs. L.A. However, in three previous relief appearances vs. the Dodgers, Glasnow has allowed six runs in four innings with five hits and four walks -- a 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kershaw has started twice against the Rays in his career, and won each start (1.88 career ERA; 0.83 WHIP). Last season, he struck out eight Rays over 6 1-3 innings, and allowed just seven baserunners and two runs. The Dodgers are 121-46 (+28 games on the moneyline) as a favorite priced -150 (or higher). And Tampa is a pedestrian 11-10 this season (minus 5 games on the moneyline) vs. lefty starters. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Braves +122 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. A few days ago, it didn't appear that either of the League Championships would go to seven games. But here we are with the Braves and Dodgers about to play the ultimate rubber game, while the Astros and Rays did the same last night. I think it's safe to say that no post-season starter has been as hot as Braves rookie RH Ian Anderson. Most people had never even heard of the 22-year-old at the start of the season, but now Anderson is on the biggest stage which baseball has, with a chance to get the Braves into the World Series. Anderson's numbers of late have been mind-boggling. In three post-season starts, covering 15 2/3 innings, Anderson has yet to allow a run. He's surrendered just six hits, with 22 strikeouts, while going 2-0. He did issue five bases on balls against the Dodgers in Game 2 of this series, but it didn't matter as Anderson allowed just one hit over four innings. If the Dodgers can't do what no other team has yet been able to -- solve Anderson and his fastball/change-up combination -- then they will once again fall short of winning their first title since 1988. Take the Braves as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers 'under' the total. This series has featured strong pitching, for the most part, but that's not the entire story. It's also been a showcase for great defense, as we saw again on Saturday in Game 6 when Mookie Betts made a leaping catch at the top of the wall against Marcell Ozuna. That superb defensive play in the fifth inning preserve the Dodgers lead and helped force this seventh game. The pitching should be on display again tonight when rookie Ian Anderson take the mound for Atlanta. The 22-year-old has yet to allow a run in 15 2/3 post-season innings, so the Braves will try to ride those numbers to their first World Series since 1999. Perhaps the best news for the Dodgers in Game 6 was the performance by veteran reliever Kenley Jansen, who pitched a perfect ninth inning to seal the deal for Los Angeles. Dodgers relievers have now allowed just two runs in 10 innings in the last two games. It will be an "all hands on deck" game for the Dodgers, who have yet to announce a starter (but we will take the 'under' regardless of which pitcher takes the mound in the 1st inning for L.A.) Manager Dave Roberts has expressed that Tony Gonsolin will work several innings. But he'll be joined by guys like Julio Urias, Brusdar Graterol, and perhaps even Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers have gone 'under' 74-55 when they've faced an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or better. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-20 | Braves +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a bullpen game on Friday that was won by the Dodgers, we're back to the top of the rotations for both of these teams. And while RH starter Walker Buehler has been very good for L.A., LH Max Fried has been on another level for Atlanta. After a regular season in which he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, Fried has continued to be one of the MVPs for the Braves in the post-season. Even though he stumbled in a start vs. the Marlins, the Braves have still won all three of his 2020 playoff outings coming into this afternoon, including Game 1 of this series opposite Buehler. In that start, the 26-year-old Atlanta ace did everything except register the victory, allowing just one run on four hits in six innings with nine strikeouts. The Braves won that one with four runs in the top of the ninth. Dating back to the 2019 All-Star Break, the Braves are 23-3 in Fried's last 26 starts, including a perfect 4-0 as an underdog! Fried goes on regular (4 days) rest this afternoon, and he is a stellar 13-4 (.765) in 23 starts in those situations. Take the Braves as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total. After Thursday night's bullpen game, the question for tonight is, "who's going to be left to pitch after the starters are done?" Everyone knows that the days of Bob Gibson are over. And most starters today would be lucky to get six innings in. So even if Blake Snell (3.24 ERA; 1.20 WHIP) and Framber Valdez (3.57 ERA; 1.11 WHIP) pitch well tonight, they likely will leave the game with at least three or four more innings to go. That's when the managerial strategy will be more difficult. These two teams used a total of 11 relievers on Thursday, so 24 hours later it will be very interesting to see how they handle things when the two starters come out. One thing's for certain -- the offenses may have a field day tonight in light of the situation. The over was 9-5 in Snell's 14 starts (regular season plus playoffs) this season, while Houston has gone 'over' the total 60-37 vs. a starting AL pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves +201 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 201 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yesterday, we had our 5* Baseball Game of the Year on the Dodgers. And, for faithful followers, it wasn't much of a surprise, given I tabbed the Dodgers as my preseason pick (at 4-1 odds) to win the World Series. But just because I picked Los Angeles to win the World Series doesn't mean I will blindly take them every game (although I did take my preseason NHL pick -- the Tampa Bay Lightning -- in all 22 of their Playoff games this past season, and that worked out perfectly). But my confidence level on the Lightning was off the charts, and I don't have the same level of confidence with this Dodgers club. Certainly, they're the best team. But the Braves, Tampa Bay Rays and, yes, even the 35-35 Houston Astros, are good enough to win the World Series. If you're the Braves, you have no choice but to act like Wednesday's Game 3 never happened. And for those who saw the first inning, it was likely something which will not be seen again, as LA set an MLB post-season record by scoring 11 runs in the top of the 1st inning to put the game out of reach soon after the National Anthem had concluded. So, a case of amnesia is really the only way for Atlanta to plow forward. And tonight it will go with another one of its "young guns" in 22-year-old RHP Bryse Wilson. In his three seasons in the Majors, Wilson has split his pitching time almost evenly between starting and relieving but he has done by far his best work as a starter. In seven starts covering 30 2/3 innings, Wilson is 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA (vs. 9.75 in eight relief appearances). Despite their big win on Wednesday, the Dodgers are still just 1-4 in their last five games vs. NL East teams. And Kershaw's post-season record is pedestrian-at-best (11-11, 4.23 ERA, 34 appearances), including a 3-5 record, with a 4.61 ERA, in 13 National League Championship Series appearances. Atlanta has enough offensive talent to win on any day, and surely against an injury-hampered Kershaw. We'll take the Braves as a massive underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros +132 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 132 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. After starting two pitchers with a combined nine post-season starts between them in Games 1 and 2 of this series (McCullers Jr. and Urquidy), the Astros will turn to a veteran pitcher with double that number. 36-year-old Zack Greinke has 18 career post-season starts and, although his playoff numbers don't exactly jump off the page at you, there's nobody Houston would rather have on the hill being down 3-0 in this series. Greinke is a 200+ game winner with a career ERA of 3.37. And although his best years may be behind him, the veteran just knows how to win. The Rays will go with RHP Tyler Glasnow who started the Game 5 victory against the Yankees last Friday. But with no off days in these series, Glasnow will be going on four days of rest and he is 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA in 17 starts with four days off (vs. 9-4, with a 3.27 ERA, in 21 starts with five days off). The Astros are also 10-4 in their last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in their two previous games. Take Houston as an underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves took a 2-0 series lead over the Dodgers on Tuesday behind the other-worldly pitching of their rookie, Ian Anderson. That's the headline. But the rest of the story is that L.A. came back from a 7-0 deficit and had the winning run 90 feet away in the bottom of the ninth. And that ability to finally put some significant runs on the board could set the tone going forward. The Dodgers will put LHP Julio Urias on the mound tonight and you could argue that the 23-year-old Mexican has been their most effective playoff pitcher so far. In two appearances (one vs. the Brewers and one vs. the Padres) Urias has yet to allow an earned run in eight innings, surrendering just four hits with 11 strikeouts and one walk. The Braves' RHP Kyle Wright has also not allowed a run so far in the playoffs, although his one appearance was against the Marlins so this will be a much tougher spot for the 25-year-old. And in the regular season, Wright was 2-4, with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Even worse, his career ERA is 6.22, with a 1.66 WHIP. So, his six scoreless innings vs. Miami last week were somewhat of an anomaly when you look at his entire career, or even just his 2020 season. The Dodgers are 14-5 in their last 19 games following a loss, and 100% perfect (4-0) this season off back-to-back losses. Meanwhile, the Braves under-performed on offense vs. lefty starters this season, as they averaged just 4.5 runs, and hit just .238 (compared to 5.9 runs per game, and .269 vs. righty starters). Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-20 | Rays v. Astros +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. Game 2 of the ALCS was another close pitching duel for the most part, but once again the Rays were victorious. The relief pitching of the Rays came through, even though Nick Anderson loaded the bases with Astros in the ninth inning for a little drama. With their backs against the wall, the 'Stros will turn to 25-year-old Jose Urquidy for Game 3 tonight. The Mexican RH missed over a month of the regular season with an injury. But once he was activated on September 5, Urquidy was very effective, posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over five starts covering just under 30 innings. If he can keep the 'Stros in this series tonight then they know they have veteran Zack Greinke waiting in the wings for Game 4. Once again the 'Stros are a slight underdog in this game, but that's okay as they are 8-2 in their last 10 post-season games as a dog. Houston will be the home team tonight and Tampa is also 1-6 in the last seven meetings as the visitors. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-20 | Astros +123 v. Rays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. If Game 1 was any indication, this is going to be one heck of a series. The Rays took a 2-1 victory Sunday night in a game that was dominated by pitching. After an outstanding performance by LH Framber Valdez, the 'Stros will turn to RH Lance McCullers this afternoon, With the Rays having used normal #2 starter Tyler Glasnow on Friday against New York, they will turn to veteran RH Charlie Morton today. After back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2018 and 2019, Morton struggled through much of this shortened 2020 season, going just 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.4 WHIP in nine starts covering 38 innings. Morton has post-season experience with the club the Rays are facing today. Unfortunately, Morton has struggled against his former team, with a 4-6 record, and a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts, covering 57 1/3 innings. The other problem for Morton is that, although for his career he is 74-55 (.574) with a 3.78 ERA under the lights, he is just 19-34 (.358) with a 4.84 number in daytime starts. Meanwhile, the Astros are 85-43 (+13 games on the moneyline) in daytime affairs. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-20 | Braves v. Marlins +130 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Atlanta Braves. It's not surprising that the Braves are up 2-0 on the Marlins in this series. They are heavily favored to advance to the NL Championship. This is why they feel confident in putting Kyle Wright on the mound today to start Game 3. Wright is a third-year pitcher with a career record of 2-7 and an ERA of 6.22 through 19 appearances (12 starts). Wright did slightly better in 2002, going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA in eight starts but he got knocked around pretty good in two consecutive starts against the Marlins. In those two starts, Wright allowed eight runs on nine hits in seven innings and the Braves were out-scored by a combined 16-2. Miami will give 22-year-old rookie RHP Sixto Sanchez his second shot at playoff action as he gets the ball this afternoon. Sanchez went 3-2 with a 3.46 ERA in seven starts in 2020 and he held the Cubs scoreless over five innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card series. Atlanta is 0-5 in Wright's last five starts vs. winning teams. Take Miami. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-07-20 | Padres +210 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. In this much-anticipated match-up of NL West power houses, the Dodgers drew first blood on Tuesday, taking a 5-1 victory at Globe Life Field. Tonight for Game 2, L.A. will use its best lefthanded weapon of the past 30+ years as Clayton Kershaw takes the hill for his 27th playoff start. But the post-season hasn't always been kind to the veteran southpaw as Kershaw actually has a losing record in the playoffs (10-11) and his 4.22 ERA is almost two runs higher than the 2.43 number he's put up during the regular season. Sure Kershaw has had a lot of success in his career against the Pads (2.03 career ERA), but he's never faced them in the post-season and it's safe to say this is the best San Diego lineup he's seen since he came into the league 12 years ago. Meanwhile, Zach Davies has had similar success vs. the Dodgers, as his career ERA vs. L.A. is 2.37, with a 1.05 WHIP. This an advantageous situation for the Padres who are 11-4 in their last 15 games in double-revenge situations. Take San Diego as a big underdog. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees -120 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. After getting blown out in Game 1 on Monday, the Rays needed to come back strong on Tuesday against the resurgent New York offense and pitching. That's exactly what Tampa did, taking Game 2 by a 7-5 final. Tonight is the Yanks opportunity to grab the lead back in what promises to be a close and tough three-of-five series. Veteran RH Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound for New York and he'll be looking to atone for a sub-par performance in the Wild Card Series against Cleveland (4 IP; 6 ER). The poor start against the Tribe notwithstanding, Tanaka has been a beast in the post-season throughout his career. In nine lifetime playoff starts, the 31-year-old is 5-3 with a 2.70 ERA in 50 innings. Perhaps more important is that Tanaka has faced the Rays 21 times (all starts) and he is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP against them in just over 130 innings. And Tanaka should enjoy his first career start in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-07-20 | A's +110 v. Astros | Top | 9-7 | Win | 110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. The Astros were not only the last American League Team to make it into the post-season (they locked down their spot with just two days to go in the regular season). They were also the only AL club to make it in with a losing record. So, naturally, people were thinking "last in, first out," and you can hardly blame them. But here we are, two games into the second round, and Houston has yet to lose a game (4-0). And the 'Stros are just one win away from a most unlikely appearance in the LCS. The A's haven't had much of an answer through two games but you know they will pull out all the stops this afternoon. So, it's fitting that they'll send their top rookie pitcher to the mound in LH Jesus Luzardo. The just-turned-23-year-old had a forgettable start in the Wild Card series against the White Sox, so he's looking for a little redemption this afternoon in a must-win situation. Luzardo is unbeaten in six daytime games (three starts) going 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA in 26 innings. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-20 | Astros v. A's -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. The Astros drew first blood in this series, taking Game 1 against the A's on Monday, putting up ten runs in the process. Houston is now 3-0 in the playoffs and a season that's been the weirdest in history just keeps getting weirder. LHP Sean Manaea may not have been the A's best starter over the course of the season as evidenced by his 4-3 record and 4.50 ERA in 11 starts. But he was their best starter in the second half of the short campaign. After a disastrous beginning which saw Manaea to 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA after four starts covering 15 innings the 28-year-old southpaw really settled down. Through his last seven starts, Manaea didn't allow more than three ER (allowing just one four times) and he cut that 9.00 ERA in half. Most important is that the A's went 6-1 in those. He didn't get a start in the Wild Card series so this is Manaea's first action in 13 days, but he has some serious redemption on his mind nonetheless. His only previous playoff start was an ugly loss to the Rays last season. The A's are 15-3 in Manaea's last 18 daytime starts. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total. The Wild Card round is over and now we move on to the Division Series which will be a best-of-five format. They say timing is everything and certainly the Yankees are proving that. In the regular season, the offense for New York's AL squad could barely hit the broad side of a barn, batting just .247. But in their two games in the first round -- in which they made quick work of the Indians -- the Yanks batted .307 with a 1.06 OPS, the best such offensive numbers for any of the 16 MLB teams. Now the question is -- can they keep that up? They likely don't need to bat .307 tonight with their RH ace Gerrit Cole going to the mound.  Cole pitched the first game in the Cleveland series, and with a 3-of-5 format the Yanks might get to use him twice in this one and that could be huge for them. He is a post-season machine, going 7-4 with a 2.60 ERA in 11 career playoff starts. And he's be pitching with an extra day of rest tonight. Likewise, Rays southpaw Blake Snell will be pitching with extra rest following his 5 2-3 scoreless innings in last week's 3-1 win over Toronto. In Snell's last three starts, he's given up just 4 runs in 16 2-3 innings (2.16 ERA; 0.90 WHIP), and all three of those games went 'under' the total. Even better: 27 of the last 46 meetings between the Yankees + Rays have gone 'under,' and I look for a relatively-low scoring game tonight. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-20 | Cardinals +113 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Diego Padres. Expectations were sky-high for Cards' RHP Jack Flaherty heading into the season, with some believing that the 24-year-old would be right in the middle of the Cy Young discussions. But after a breakout 2019 campaign in which he finished fourth in the voting for the aforementioned pitching honor, Flaherty laid a big egg in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. In nine starts, Flaherty went 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA. And although his strikeout rate remained basically unchanged, his walk rate increased dramatically to a career-worst 3.6 per nine IP. But all of that -- or a great chunk of it anyway -- will be forgotten if Flaherty can lead his team to victory tonight in the Wild Card finale. Flaherty didn't face San Diego in 2020, but last season he threw five shutout innings in his only start against the Pads (his second overall start of 2019). The Cards are 18-11 this season (+10 games on the moneyline), and 101-78 (+16 games on the moneyline) their last 179 off a loss, while the Padres are 75-94 (minus 18 games on the moneyline) off a win, and 40-49 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) at home, when priced from +125 to -125. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals. The 5th-seeded Cards pulled off a mild upset over the 4th-seeded Padres on Wednesday, taking a 7-4 win and now are just one win away from advancing to the quarterfinals. With Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger not eligible to play this round, the Padres will go with RHP and former Milwaukee Brewer Zach Davies. The Brewers are also a playoff team, but Davies must be thrilled to be in San Diego, where it would appear there will be lots of post-season games in his future if he can negotiate a long-term contract at some point. The 27-year-old followed up a solid 2019 campaign with an ever better 2020, going 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA in a full load of 12 starts covering just over 69 innings. One reason it would be wise for him to stay in San Diego is his record at Petco Park. In nine starts here, Davies is 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 53 innings. Davies' teams are also 6-1 in his last seven starts as a favorite, priced from -125 to -175. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | White Sox -105 v. A's | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over Oakland. The White Sox will start rookie Dane Dunning, while Oakland will hand the ball to Michael Fiers. Also under consideration for the A's was southpaw Sean Manaea who, in my opinion, is a better pitcher than Fiers. But the A's were concerned about Chicago's 15-0 record this season vs. lefty starters, so they opted for the righty, Fiers, instead. I believe that was a mistake. Fiers' ERA this season is 4.58, but at home, it balloons to 5.81. Dunning's ERA is a nice 3.97, with a solid WHIP of 1.11. And in his lone daytime start this season, he threw five scoreless innings vs. the Royals, in a 5-2 ChiSox win. The bottom line is that, regardless of the starter, the A's are a less potent offensive team. Oakland's hitting just .223 on the season, compared to .260 for Chicago. And its runs per game is 0.6 less (but 1.1 runs per game in daytime affairs). Take the White Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-20 | Reds +125 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Atlanta Braves. Game 1 of this series went 13 innings before the Braves finally got a run across the plate in a 1-0 victory. The Braves used their ace on Wednesday and LHP Max Fried was spectacular, throwing seven six-hit innings with 5 K's an 0 walks. But there's a pretty big drop off from Fried to rookie Ian Anderson. More importantly is that Anderson isn't a southpaw. The Reds simply can't hit lefties as evidenced by what happened Wednesday and so we can expect their offense -- which isn't bad -- to at least score some runs. They led with their ace, Trevor Bauer, in Game 1, but not far behind Bauer is RHP Luis Castillo who will get the call this afternoon. Castillo followed up his 15-win All Star 2019 with just a 4-6 record this season but his 3.21 ERA and 3.71 K:BB ratio were both improvements. The Braves are 1-5 in their last six playoff games as a favorite. Take Cincy. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians +118 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. Yesterday, the Yankees drew first blood with a 12-3 blowout win over Cleveland. Still, New York is a wallet-busting 13-18 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) on the road this season. And it also has won just three of its previous nine games, while the Indians have won seven of their previous nine. I love Cleveland to bounce back this evening against the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has made four starts on the road this season, and the Yankees lost each of those four games -- by a combined score of 22-3! Yet, the Yankees have been installed as a road favorite in this game. I'm not buying it. Take the Indians as a home underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-20 | White Sox v. A's -120 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox drew first blood Tuesday, taking a 4-1 decision from the A's to go one win away from advancing in the AL playoffs. Tonight it will be on 31-year-old RH Chris Bassitt to keep the series alive for the A's and force a deciding third game. Bassitt just might be the least-known starter with ace-like numbers in the league. In 11 starts this season, Bassitt is 5-2 and his 2.29 ERA puts him third in the AL in that category.  Bassitt has never pitched in the playoffs before but he should be up to the task. Through his career Bassitt has done his best work here at home. In 38 games (32 starts) at the Coliseum, Bassitt has a 2.63 ERA, a number that is two runs better than when he's pitching elsewhere. And in four previous starts vs. the Sox, Bassitt is 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA in 23 2/3 innings. This is a good month for Bassitt as the A's are 6-0 in his last six September outings and they are also 6-0 in his last six starts after he allowed one run or less in his last. Take Oakland. |
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09-30-20 | Astros v. Twins -142 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -142 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. We played on the Astros yesterday as a huge underdog, and they surprised the Twins in Game 1 of this series by scoring three runs in the 9th, and are now sitting in the catbird seat, needing only one more victory to advance. The Twins could have something to say about that this afternoon as they send veteran RH Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios had some pedestrian numbers on the regular season (5-4 with a 4.00 ERA in 12 starts) but he has a way of stepping up in big situations and none is bigger than facing elimination. Incredibly, with the defeat on Tuesday, the Twins have now lost 17 post-season games in a row and if that doesn't motivate a team then nothing will. These two teams didn't play in the 2020 regular season, but prior to Tuesday's game, their last meeting was on May 2, 2019 -- a game won by Berrios after he pitched seven stellar innings, allowing two runs with five K's and no walks. This game will be played at Target Field and the Twins are 23-8 (+11 games on the moneyline) in their last 31 home contests. And unlike yesterday's game, where manager Dusty Baker could hand the ball to a gamer like Zack Greinke, his starting pitcher options today are not nearly as good. Notwithstanding yesterday's win, the Astros are 4-12 this season in the underdog role (minus 7 games on the moneyline),  Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-20 | Reds v. Braves -120 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are in the playoffs. As strange as that sounds, it's true -- even if their 2020 post-season is a short-lived one. The first round is after all a best-of-three series and nobody would be surprised if the Braves move on in two games. But being here is still something for the Reds and their fans to be proud of. Game 1 features a couple of strikeout artists in RH Trevor Bauer (CIN) and LH Max Fried. The Braves would probably be smart to go with lefty starters in Games 1 and 2, if possible. The Reds simply could not hit southpaw pitching this season, batting a paltry .200 against them with a .291 OBP (worst in the NL). Only the Cubs' .196 BA vs. LHP kept Cincy out of the cellar in that category. And Fried isn't just any southpaw -- he's one of the best in the game. In 11 starts this season, the 26-year-old went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 56 innings. The Braves are 16-2 (+14 games on the moneyline) in their last 18 immediately after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Take Atlanta. |
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09-29-20 | Blue Jays +176 v. Rays | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Blue Jays are the biggest underdog on today's card, and I think the number is a bit out-of-whack. Yes, Matt Shoemaker is not in the same class as Tampa Bay's Blake Snell. But it's a team game, and the Blue Jays outscored Tampa 48-44 in their 10 games this season. In Snell's last start vs. Toronto (August 24), the Blue Jays won 6-4. And Toronto's won three of Snell's five starts vs. it over the last two seasons. The Blue Jays were 12-8 (+5 games on the moneyline) vs. lefties this season. And Shoemaker's 4-0 with a 2.56 career ERA vs. the Rays. Take the underdog Blue Jays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-20 | White Sox -119 v. A's | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Oakland A's. The White Sox will hand the ball to their big right-hander, Lucas Giolito, on this Tuesday afternoon. Certainly, it was an up-and-down season for Giolito. The high point was no doubt his no-hitter vs. Pittsburgh in late August. And, at the time, that was his second straight game he struck out 13 batters. But Giolito wasn't as effective after that, and he had a 4.07 ERA over his last five starts. Still, he possesses a ton of talent, and has been installed as a favorite on the road today. The ChiSox are 23-9 their last 32 as a road favorite. And they're a jaw-dropping 14-0 this season vs. lefty starters. Finally, Giolito has led Chicago to wins in 24 of his last 36 road starts -- and he was an underdog in most of those. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-20 | Astros +159 v. Twins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 159 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. There's no doubt which team, and which pitcher has had the better 2020 season. And that's Minnesota and Kenta Maeda. But Houston should not be discounted. Yet, that's exactly what the bettors are doing. As of this writing, the price is up 20 cents from the opening odds, and 67% of the bets are going on Minnesota. It's hard for me to pass up Houston and Greinke at this price. After all, Houston's 29-6 (+18 games on the moneyline) when playing with rest. And Greinke's 8-5 as an underdog of +150 or less. And, of course, Minnesota's lost an MLB-record 16 straight playoff games since 2004. So, yes, it's true that Maeda's Twins were 8-3 in his 11 starts this season, and he led the league with a 0.75 WHIP. But it's also true that, in his only start vs. Houston in his career, he was bombed for 5 runs in 5 1-3 innings (a 14-0 Astros win). Take the underdog Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Cubs v. White Sox -150 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Chicago Cubs. By now, most baseball followers know that the Nationals traded their #1 pitching prospect, RH Lucas Giolito, to the White Sox for OF Adam Eaton. But what they may not know is that the Nats included another talented righthander in that deal. That pitcher was former (2016) first round draft pick Dane Dunning. The 25-year-old is making his MLB debut this season for the Sox and it has to be at least a little bit painful for the Nats to not only see Giolito doing so well, but also now Dunning developing nicely for Chicago. The former Florida Gator will get his seventh start tonight and it will be first vs. the Sox cross-town rivals. Dunning has done by far his best work in his new home ballpark, going 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA in three starts covering 16 1/3 innings here at Guaranteed Rate Field (vs. 1-0 and 4.30 on the road). The Cubs will go with LHP Jon Lester and the White Sox are an incredible 13-0 in their last 13 games vs. southpaw starters. Take the Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Astros -194 v. Rangers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -194 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. The Astros will turn to Lance McCullers tonight, and he's been spectacular over his last two starts. McCullers faced this Rangers team on Sept. 16, and threw seven scoreless innings (2 hits, 0 BB, 8 K), and he followed that up with 6 2-3 innings of shutout baseball at Seattle. He'll match up against veteran RHP Kyle Gibson tonight, and Gibson has a horrid 5.87 ERA in 11 starts (7.18 ERA at home). In his last outing, Gibson was bombed for 7 earned runs in 4 innings at the Angels. Houston is 101-44 (+21 games on the moneyline) as a favorite of -125 (or more) on the road, while Texas is a wallet-busting 43-79 (-8 games on the moneyline) as a home dog, priced from +150 to +200. Take Houston. |
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09-26-20 | Marlins v. Yankees -185 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Miami Marlins. The Yankees are no strangers to finding a kid somewhere down south and signing him as a 16-year-old before anyone else can grab him. A case in point is now-21-year-old Deivi Garcia. The Yanks signed Garcia out of the Dominican Republic five years ago and this season the RHP is making his debut in pinstripes. For the most part, it's been a successful coming-out party as Garcia is 2-2 in five starts so far. The 4.88 ERA may seem a bit high, but Garcia also has a K:BB ratio above 5:1 as he has punched out 26 hitters and walked just 5 in 27 1/3 innings of work. Garcia had back-to-back strong seven-inning outings against a very good Blue Jays lineup but then threw in a bit of a clunker against the Red Sox in his last. But that was Garcia's first start at Fenway Park, and Fenway can be difficult for pitchers who have never thrown there. The Marlins just punched their post-season ticket with their win over this Yankee club yesterday, so a letdown could be in order this afternoon. Take the Yanks. |
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09-25-20 | Padres -148 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -148 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco. The Padres will hand the ball to RHP Dinelson Lamet tonight, while the Giants will start southpaw Tyler Anderson (3-3, 4.53 ERA). Lamet's been consistently brilliant this season. He's made 11 starts, and has a 2.07 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. And, most importantly, the Padres win when he starts, as they've won his last six outings, and nine of his 11 this season. In those 11 starts, he's given up 1 earned run or less in eight of them, while he gave up 2 runs once, and 3 runs twice. He's in great form, as he has had 32 strikeouts against just four walks and 11 hits in his last three games (20 2/3 innings), for an 0.87 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 8:1 K/BB ratio. And his numbers have been solid against the Giants, as he has a career 2.70 ERA vs. SF. Meanwhile, Tyler Anderson's teams have won just 12 of his 39 starts vs. division rivals. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-20 | A's v. Dodgers -200 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Oakland Athletics. The future of the NL West may someday belong to the San Diego Padres, but for now it's the Dodgers who reign supreme. Los Angeles has clinched its eighth straight Division Crown and it will also finish with the League's best record in this shortened season. But nobody knows better than the Dodgers that those eight pennants have resulted in zero World Series rings and it's now been more than 30 years since they have won it all. If they're going to do it this year, they're going to need to stay as healthy as possible. That's been problematic for young RH ace Walker Buehler. But the good news is that it's been a blister problem that has sidelined the 26-year-old and those are normally very manageable. Buehler gets his first start since September 8 tonight and no doubt he will be carefully watched. He's been a beast in inter-league games, going 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA in eight starts covering just under 43 innings vs. teams from the American League. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-20 | Astros -125 v. Rangers | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Houston's magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to 2. So, if the Astros win tonight, and the Angels lose, Houston would qualify for the playoffs. We'll play on Houston, which is now 100-43 (+22 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite of -125 (or more). Meanwhile, Texas is 14-31 (minus 10 games on the moneyline) as an underdog. Take the Astros. |
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09-24-20 | White Sox +113 v. Indians | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians. With a long-sought post-season spot now secured, it seems that the White Sox are going to be cautious with some of their veteran starters. And none more-so than the southpaw leader of the rotation, Dallas Keuchel. The former Astros-Braves veteran appears to be on some type of a pitch count, having not allowed a run in his last three starts, but also only having thrown a total of 14 innings in those (5 IP, 5 IP and 4IP in his last one). That last start was a gem as he held the Reds scoreless while the Sox beat them and ace Trevor Bauer 4-0 in what would be a no-decision for Keuchel. This shows how confident the Sox are in their bullpen right now and rightly so. Chicago relievers are 16-8 with a 3.69 ERA on the season so far. The Indians batting order has struggled mightily against LHP this season, hitting just .227 against them (fourth-worst in the AL). Chicago is 19-8 in its last 27 games vs. teams from the AL Central. Take the White Sox. |
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09-24-20 | Cubs -180 v. Pirates | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -180 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cubs RHP Alec Mills gets his second start since tossing his first career no-hitter on September 13. Not surprisingly, Mills' first start since the no-no was a bit of a let-down as the Cubs were soundly beaten 8-1 (and we cashed our highest-rated play of the season in that game on the Twins). But that outing last Saturday was against one of the best offenses in the league, and Mills really didn't pitch that badly (4 ER in 6 IP with 7 Ks and 1 BB). He gets a significant break tonight by facing the Pirates. Just how bad is the Bucs' hitting this season? They are batting a paltry .214 (somehow not the worst in the league -- CIN @ .211) and their OPS is an MLB-worst .619 which is almost 20 points below the next team. Somehow, Mills lost to this team back on September 3, but that means this afternoon is a revenge situation as well.  Pittsburgh will go with RH Chad Kuhl and to say that the Cubs are a problem for him is an understatement. In 11 previous games (10 starts) vs. the Cubs, Kuhl is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-20 | A's +151 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 151 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sean Manaea's much-anticipated season got off to a rocky start as the 28-year-old RHP went 0-2 with a 7.65 ERA through his first five starts. But after that point, Manaea got hot and reeled of four straight wins, allowing just one run in each and lowering his ERA more then three runs to 4.46. Manaea's string got snapped in his last start on September 15, but that was at Coors Field so we'll give the Oakland ace a mulligan on that one and look for him to start a new streak tonight in Los Angeles. Unlike Coors, Dodger Stadium is a good place for Manaea to get back on track as his only other start here was a good one (5 IP; 2 R; 5 K; 1 BB).  The A's are on a high right now, having just clinched their first Division Title since 2013. The Dodgers will go with LHP Julio Urias and that may not be the best thing against this A's team. Oakland has been feasting on southpaw pitching lately, going 9-2 (+6 games on the moneyline) in its last 11 games vs. LHs. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-20 | Brewers v. Reds -150 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Milwaukee Brewers. These two NL Central clubs are locked into a tight race with the Giants and Phillies for the final two Wild Card berths in the National League. Tonight's match-up favors the home team, as Trevor Bauer has a spectacular 1.80 ERA in 10 starts this season, while Adrian Houser's ERA in his 10 starts is north of 5 runs per game (5.33). Bauer faced the Brewers twice this season, and pitched well, with a 3.65 ERA over 12 1-3 innings, and 20 strikeouts, against just 13 baserunners (1.05 WHIP). In contrast, Houser's ERA vs. the Reds is 6.23, with a WHIP of 1.53. In his lone start vs. Cincy this season, he was bombed (4 runs, 4 IP, 10 baserunners). Take the Reds. |
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09-23-20 | White Sox +142 v. Indians | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians. When White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito threw his first career no-hitter on August 25 against the Pirates, he saw his ERA for the season drop from 3.89 to 3.09. But that seemed to be the high point (or should we say low point) as in Giolito's four subsequent starts, his ERA has risen back to 3.53. But the good news is that although he hasn't come close to duplicating that August 25 accomplishment, Giolito has leading his team to victory. In fact, the White Sox are 3-1 in those four starts and it's safe to say that his team wouldn't have clinched its first post-season appearance since 2008 if not for the work that Giolito has contributed. Now a start opposite Shane Bieber is not easy to say the least, but the Cleveland ace hasn't been at his best recently, allowing six earned runs in his last two starts with one of them resulting in his first loss of the season. Giolito's teams are 18-9 (+18 games on the moneyline) in his last 27 starts as a road underdog. Take the White Sox. |
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09-22-20 | Phillies -189 v. Nationals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -189 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, in Game 1 of the doubleheader, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. It's been a yo-yo type of season for Phillies RH ace Aaron Nola. Two starts ago on September 11, Nola had his best outing of the season, tossing seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits with 10 strikeouts and no walks in an 11-0 rout of the Marlins. But the 27-year-old followed that up last time out with a clunker against the Mets, allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings. And that's the type of campaign it's been for Nola so far -- a good start/bad start pattern for the most part. That bodes well for this afternoon affair against the Nats in Game 1 of a DH. What also bodes well for him is his winning record and 3.56 ERA in 10 starts covering just under 56 innings here in DC. Last night's loss here ended what had been a six-game winning streak for the Phillies over the Nats -- all this season. The Nats will go with RHP Austin Voth (7.17 ERA; 1.67 WHIP) and they are 5-14 (-13 games on the moneyline) in his 19 starts. Even worse: they're 10-27 against righty starters (-22 games on the moneyline) this season. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-20 | Cubs -160 v. Pirates | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Nobody can argue that Cubs' LH Jon Lester is now in the twilight of his career. But having said that, crafty southpaws have a way of hanging around in the Majors if they can prove to still be useful out on the mound every five days (or in relief if necessary). And despite some numbers that are tailing off, Lester has shown that he can definitely be a useful starter. Like in his last start last Wednesday when the 36-year-old held a strong Indians offense in check long enough (five innings in this case) for his team to get the win. Tonight, the Cubs will face a much weaker opponent, as the Bucs have won just once in their last 13 games. In his career, Lester is 12-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 25 starts vs. the Bucs, including a 6-3 record (in 12 starts) here in Pittsburgh. The Cubs are 5-1 in the last six meetings and they are also 14-5 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Lester's last 19 starts after he allowed no more than two ER in his two previous games. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-20 | Phillies -150 v. Nationals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The free agent pool for starting pitchers wasn't all that deep at the end of last season and with Gerrit Cole out of reach, the Phillies decided to gamble on former Mets' RHP Zack Wheeler. Gamble is the right word too because $120 Million is quite a bit for a guy with a record barely over .500 and ERA around four runs, especially when he's already 30-years-old. But right now the Phils are looking pretty smart with their decision to lock up the former first round pick (Giants). In nine starts, Wheeler is 4-0 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.08 WHIP 58 1/3 innings. It certainly looks as if the Phillies are getting their money's worth so far. After back-to-back starts against his former team, Wheeler will get his second start of the season against the Nats. The first one was near flawless as Wheeler tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits in a 3-0 Phils victory. The Nats are 9-26 (-22 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 games vs. RH starters. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | Twins v. Cubs -147 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -147 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Minnesota Twins. When veteran Yu Darvish signed a six-year, $126 Million contract with the Cubs before the 2018 season, many were skeptical. And then when Darvish got injured and proceeded to go 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in just eight starts, the skeptics appeared correct. But now that contract is looking like a bargain. Darvish's 2019 may seem somewhat ordinary (6-8 with a 3.98 ERA in 31 starts), but when you look at the second half of last season (4 wins with a 2.76 ERA and 0.81 WHIP) and then what he's done so far in 2020, all of sudden you're talking Cy Young-type stuff. In his first 10 starts this season, the RH is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He looks to continue his dominance tonight against the Twins and an inter-league start just might do that. In 21 starts vs. the opposite League, Darvish is 10-3 with a 3.06 ERA and he has a 1.77 ERA in three starts vs. Minnesota. The Cubs are 6-1 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Darvish's last seven night games. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | Blue Jays -101 v. Phillies | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Philadelphia Phillies. There haven't been many trades during this short season, but one that seemed to make a lot of sense for both teams was when the Mariners sent veteran RHP Taijuan Walker to the Blue Jays for a player to be named later. With the M's not going anywhere this season it was logical for them to move their one-time top pitching prospect who is due to be a free agent at the end of the season. And it makes sense for the contending Jays to have another seasoned arm in their rotation. Walker is only 27, after all, and it seems as though he can make an impact for this young Jays team that has a shot at the playoffs. Walker had a 4.00 ERA in five starts for Seattle, but since coming east he has logged a sparkling 1.56 ERA in four starts covering 17 1/3 innings with the Jays. Walker has a 3.30 ERA in 10 previous inter-league starts and the Phillies have never seen him before. Philadelphia is 8-11 (-6 games on the moneyline) in its last 19 day games. Take Toronto. |
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09-20-20 | Indians -190 v. Tigers | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers. Carlos Carrasco is having a very nice comeback campaign having posted a 3.27 ERA over 10 starts covering 55 innings. That 3.27 number -- if the season were to end today -- would be the lowest ERA that Carrasco has logged since 2014 and the second-lowest of his MLB career which began 11 years ago. The only number that's been elusive for Carrasco so far is victories as he is just 2-4 heading into this afternoon. A start against the Tigers could help get Carrasco on the winning track. The veteran RH has 11 victories in 30 games (24 starts) covering just under 142 innings vs. Detroit -- the second-most that he has logged against any team (KC - 12). Despite their struggles at time this season and their loss here last night, the Indians are 26-8 in their last 34 road games against teams with losing records and 14-3 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 17 as a road favorite of -125 or more. Detroit is 11-22 in its last 33 vs. Division opponents. Take the Tribe. |
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09-19-20 | Twins -125 v. Cubs | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago Cubs. Chicago's Alec Mills threw the second no-hitter of the MLB season in his last start. And while the first one -- by White Sox ace Lucas Giolito -- was not surprising, Mills' accomplishment came out of left field (pun intended). Mills was a 22nd round pick of the Royals back in 2012 who, in his last two seasons at AAA Iowa had amassed a record of 11-16 with an ERA around five runs. And prior to last Sunday's no-no vs. the Brewers, Mills was 4-3 with a 4.74 ERA in 43 2/3 innings for the Cubbies. The Twins will go with veteran RHP Michael Pineda tonight. After missing all of 2018, Pineda had a very strong come-back season in 2019, going 11-5 with a 4.00 ERA and so far he's building on that in 2020. In three starts, the 31-year-old is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA and an outstanding 20 strikeouts vs. just four walks in 17 2/3 innings. In 18 career inter-league starts, Pineda is 8-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in just over 105 innings (vs. his overall career ERA of 4.03). The Twins are 8-1 behind Pineda when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, while the Cubs are a poor 28-41 (minus nine games on the moneyline) when priced as an underdog of +150 or less. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-20 | Padres -170 v. Mariners | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Seattle Mariners. Despite everything that's going on right now, it's a good time to be a member of the Padres (or a fan). San Diego's young baseball team is looking like the 2nd best club in the National League right now and what seemed like an impossible feat only a few weeks ago -- catching the Dodgers -- is now within grasp. While L.A. has to go into Denver (always dicey) this weekend, the Padres get three games vs. Seattle. Also, San Diego will be designated as the "road" team in this series, but each game will be played in San Diego, as Seattle's air quality was deemed unsafe, due to the fires, so the games were moved away from Seattle. Starting things out on the mound will be RHP Chris Paddack. Paddack was looking like a sure-fire ace heading into this season after a 2019 in which he won nine games with a 3.33 ERA, but he's struggled a bit so far. But while his ERA is high at 4.74 (in 10 starts), Paddack's walk rate has actually improved (to a low 1.6 free passes per nine innings) and his K:BB ratio has increased as a result (5.78). A start vs. Seattle should be just what Paddack needs. The Pads are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-20 | Indians -272 v. Tigers | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers. In his last start, Indians' RHP Shane Bieber did something he doesn't do very often. The leading candidate for the AL Cy Young took his first loss of the season in his 10th start and so he is now 7-1 on the season. But in true Bieber style, the 25-year-old still had a quality start, tossing seven innings of five-hit, three-run ball against a very good Twins lineup. He gets rewarded tonight by getting his second start of the season against the Tigers. Overall Bieber is 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in five career starts vs. Detroit so the Cleveland ace stands a good chance of redeeming himself tonight in Detroit. If those numbers seem dominant, check out his career stats here at Comerica Park: 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in three starts covering 21 2/3 innings. If there's anything that can get Cleveland out of its current funk, it's a series against Detroit. The Tribe is 42-9 in the last 51 meetings overall and 22-5 in the last 27 in the Motor City. Take Cleveland.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-20 | Indians -119 v. Cubs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago Cubs. There was a time not that long ago when Jon Lester was one of the top half-dozen southpaw starters in the League. It appears that those days are behind him as Lester is struggling for the second consecutive year. Lester did turn things around a bit in his last start, throwing six shutout innings against a very good Brewers line-up, allowing just three hits with eight punch-outs and two walks. But his offense did nothing and the Cubs lost 1-0. For the season, Lester has an ERA north of five runs. And at home, the ERA balloons to 9.00, with a 1.63 WHIP in four Wrigley Field starts. Aaron Civale will get the start for the Tribe, and he has a 3.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine starts, including 3.43/1.09 in interleague games. Cleveland is a super 12-5 this season as a road favorite, and 25-14 their last 39 vs. NL Central division foes. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-15-20 | Dodgers -122 v. Padres | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. Tony Gonsolin was a 9th round pick of the Dodgers in the 2016 Amateur draft so you wouldn't think given the depth on this team that he would make much of an impact four years later. But here we are and Gonsolin is now a 26-year-old second-year rookie who looks like he could be a fixture in this rotation for the foreseeable future. After posting a solid 4-2 record and 2.93 ERA in his time split between starting and relieving in 2019, Gonsolin now looks like a serious breakout candidate for a club that has some of the deepest pitching in the Majors. In six appearances this season (five starts) Gonsolin is 0-1 but he has posted a 1.57 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with 28 strikeouts and six walks in 28 2/3 innings coming into tonight. The Padres are having a great season to be sure, but they are still 5-14 in their last 19 games as a home underdog. The Dodgers are 7-2 in the last nine meetings in San Diego. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-20 | Indians +129 v. Twins | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins. When MLB teams draft 18-year-old high school pitchers, those players usually end up either on another team by the time they reach the Majors, or they simply never get there. But in the case of RHP Triston McKenzie, patience may be paying off -- and in a big way. Cleveland made McKenzie its first-round pick in the 2015 Amateur Draft and now, five years later, he has finally made his MLB debut. With the young pitchers they've had come up recently, the Indians were able to take their time with McKenzie and that may prove to be valuable in the long run. So far, McKenzie has been dazzling, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.57 ERA in four starts covering 21 innings and he has a superb 5.20 K:BB ratio (26 Ks vs. six walks). This will be his first start vs. the Twins and it's safe to say they will represent the most potent offense he's seen. But he should be up to the task. Cleveland is 11-3 in its last 14 road games vs. RH starters. Take the Tribe. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-20 | Astros v. Dodgers -142 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -142 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Houston Astros. The Dodgers had a rare Friday off last night and now begin a two-game series against the team that beat them in the World Series three years ago. But this is a better team than that one (or the one that lost the series again the following season). And, in fact, it just might be the best Dodger team in a very long time (which could bode well for us, as the Dodgers were our Futures pick to win the World Series at 4-1 odds). No National League club has finished the season with a winning percentage over .700 since 1909, but L.A. has a chance to do it (although this accomplishment in 2020's shortened season would have an asterisk associated with it). LHP Julio Urias has successfully made the transition from starter-reliever to full-time rotation member. In eight starts, the 24 year-old is 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA and almost a strikeout per inning. Urias has never faced the Astros before, including the 2017 World Series as he was not on that roster. But he loves pitching here at home where he has a 7-3 record and a 3.21 ERA in just under 121 innings. And the Dodgers are 13-4 (+7 games on the moneyline) behind Urias at home, when priced from -125 to -175. Finally, Houston is 3-14 in its last 17 road games. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al Mcmordie. |
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09-12-20 | Braves -110 v. Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. After scoring 36 runs over their two previous games, the Braves "only" scored 7 runs last night, but lost 8-7 in 12 innings to the Nationals. Tonight, we'll take the Braves to bounce back behind rookie RHP Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 this season, with a 2.40 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Washington will counter with southpaw Patrick Corbin, who is having a down season, with a 2-4 record, and 4.34 ERA. Washington has now dropped Corbin's last five starts, and is also 2-7 his last nine starts as an underdog. The Braves are outscoring their opponents by 1.15 runs per game this season. And that bodes well for them this evening, as Washington is a poor 10-23 at home vs. foes that outscore their opponents by 1+ runs per game. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-11-20 | Indians v. Twins +102 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians. This is a great matchup tonight between the Twins' Kenta Maeda, and Cleveland's undefeated (7-0) Shane Bieber. The two teams are separated by just a half-game in the standings, as Cleveland (26-18) has one less win than does Minnesota (27-18), so this is a critical series for Playoffs seeding purposes (both should eventually make the expanded Playoffs). We'll take the homestanding Twins, as Maeda's home ERA is an impressive 1.80, with a microscopic 0.40 ERA. The Twins have won all of his home starts this season, including a 3-0 shutout of these Indians on August 1. And Maeda also was victorious in his lone start at Cleveland (August 24) when he held the Indians to just one run over eight innings, and struck out 12 batters. Cleveland's a poor 29-46 (minus 18 games on the moneyline) on the road vs. American League starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.40 (or better), and was no-hit for 7 2-3 innings last night by rookie Brady Singer. Take Minnesota. |
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09-11-20 | Red Sox v. Rays -228 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. Two seasons removed from his Cy Young campaign and it appears that Blake Snell is back to being close to what he was in 2018. 2019 was for the most part an injured and lost season for the 27 year-old LH ace, but so far this season, Snell has shown some of the form that won him 21 games with a league-leading 1.89 ERA two seasons ago. In eight starts, Snell is 3-1 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.75 K:BB ratio in just under 34 innings. That 3.75 ratio is actually better than the one he put up in his Cy Young campaign and the best so far in his five MLB seasons. The good news for him tonight is that Snell has more victories (six) against the Red Sox than he has vs. any other team in the league. In 11 games vs. Boston (all starts), Snell is 6-3 with a 2.83 ERA in just over 57 innings. And southpaws have been posing quite a problem for Boston lately as the Sox are 4-13 (-9 games on the moneyline) in their last 17 games vs. LH starters. Take Tampa. |
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09-11-20 | Phillies -145 v. Marlins | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. After Aaron Nola won 17 games and finished 3rd in the Cy Young balloting for the Phillies in 2018, many people expected an even bigger season the following year. But that didn't happen and 2019 was a bit of a regression for the then-26-year-old RH ace. But so far, 2020 has seen a similar performance to the one that Nola put up two seasons ago. In eight starts, Nola is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 5.15 K:BB ratio (67 strikeouts vs. 13 walks). Those last two numbers are the best of Nola's career to this point. The Marlins will go with first-year southpaw Trevor Rogers (1-0; 3.00 ERA in three starts). The Phillies are 5-1 in their last six games vs. lefthanded starters. Meanwhile the Marlins are 2-6 in their last eight home games vs. teams with a winning record. Finally, the Phillies are 12-2 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 14 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Take Philadelphia. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-20 | Reds v. Cubs +127 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 127 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds. In his last start, the Reds' RHP, Sonny Gray, didn't make it out of the first inning, as he gave up 6 runs, 5 hits, 3 walks, in just two-thirds of an inning.  The Reds are a poor 13-20 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. right-handed starters this season (compared to 5-4 vs. lefties). And they're 74-110 (minus 20 games on the moneyline) on the road. Take the Cubs as a home underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-20 | Royals v. Indians -200 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -200 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. The Royals pulled off a big upset on Wednesday, beating the Indians and starter Carlos Carrasco, 3-0. Of course when you can't score runs, it doesn't matter how good your starting pitching is -- and Carrasco really couldn't do much more than he did last night. But KC can't put southpaw Danny Duffy out there again tonight, so instead it will go with rookie RH Brady Singer. Singer might be a star one day, but that won't be 2020, as the 2018 first-round draft choice has struggled through eight MLB starts so far. Singer is 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, with just a 2.40 K:BB ratio (36:15) in over 40 innings coming into tonight. Cleveland will go with RHP Aaron Civale who, like his teammate Carrasco, had a bad beat in his last start, with a no-decision in a 4-3 loss to the Brewers, despite a quality effort. Look for a bounce back tonight. The Indians are 19-9 in their last 28 home games vs. teams with a RH starter. Take Cleveland. |
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09-10-20 | Astros +132 v. A's | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. Jose Urquidy pretty much came out of nowhere in the latter half of last season to post some pretty eye-popping numbers for the Astros. In nine appearances, the then-24-year-old RH went 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 40 strikeouts and seven walks in 41 innings (a 5.7 K:BB ratio). Urquidy's anticipated 2020 debut was delayed by an undisclosed injury and as a result, his first start was -- in a word -- underwhelming (two runs on four hits in 3 2/3 innings). That first start was against the Angels in Anaheim and now start number two comes this afternoon in Oakland, a much friendlier place for young starting pitchers and it will be Urquidy's first start here. The A's will go with LH Sean Manaea. And the 'Stros are 45-15 in their last 60 games vs. southpaw starters and 39-14 in their last 53 road games vs. lefthanders. Houston is also 79-39 (+11 games on the moneyline) in its last 118 daytime games. Take the Astros. |
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09-09-20 | Astros v. A's -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Houston Astros. Southpaw rookie Jesus Luzardo will face the team against which he earned his first Major League win, back on August 9. In that game, Luzardo held the Astros to 2 runs and 5 hits over 5 2-3 innings, en route to a 7-2 victory. Oakland is a solid 90-39 (+31 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, including 52-16 (+23 games on the moneyline) at -150 or more. Meanwhile, Houston is 6-13 on the road, including 2-7 as an underdog. Take the A's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-20 | White Sox -157 v. Pirates | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It may seem like the White Sox got one very talented pitcher -- Lucas Giolito -- from Washington in exchange for OF Adam Eaton back at the end of 2016. But now the trade may begin to look even more lopsided as the other pitcher the Nats sent to Chicago -- RH Dane Dunning -- could be a blossoming star, just like Giolito turned out to be. After all, the 25-year-old Dunning was a first round choice of the Nationals in the 2016 Amateur draft. And although it's taken him longer to get to the majors than Giolito, Dunning may be ready to break out. In three starts in his first MLB campaign, Dunning has posted a 3.86 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 14 innings. He's still looking for this first Major League win, but that could easily come tonight against the 14-26 Pirates. The Pirates somehow beat this team last night, 5-4, but they are just 2-11 (-9 games on the moneyline) in their last 13 interleague contests. Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-20 | Yankees -133 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees are in the midst of a 5-15 stretch, but I love them to bounce back this evening. New York will have a decided advantage on the mound with Deivi Garcia (3.37 ERA) vs. Tanner Roark, given Roark's 5.75 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his seven starts this season. And at home, those numbers deteriorate to 7.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. That's pretty ugly. New York is 76-40 as a favorite of -150 or less (+26 games on the moneyline), and they're 7-1 this season when the Over/Under is 10+ runs. Take the Yankees. |
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09-09-20 | Royals v. Indians -187 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -187 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. Carlos Carrasco's return this season from a bout with cancer is nothing short of miraculous. If he had come back to get some part-time relief innings that would be considered enough of a success. But that fact that he's a full-time starter logging quality innings after what he went through is really quite remarkable. In eight starts covering 42 innings Carrasco has a 3.43 ERA and 52 strikeouts. The only stat that's been troubling for the 33-year-old righthander is his walk rate as Carrasco has issued a career-high 4.3 free passes on average every nine innings. Carrasco also only has two victories in his eight starts but perhaps getting the ball against KC tonight will help change that. In 26 games (21 starts) covering 128 1/3 innings vs. the Royals, Carrasco is 12-7 and those 12 wins represent the most that he's had vs. any team. The Indians are 55-18 (+11 games on the money line) in their last 73 home games as a favorite of -200 or more. Take Cleveland. |
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09-08-20 | Dodgers -220 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Whether it was his nagging finger blister or some other reason, Walker Buehler got off to a very rough start this season. After four starts, the Dodger RH ace had a 5.21 ERA and was still looking for his first victory and his first quality start. He got both in his next start at the end of August, and then followed that up with five scoreless innings against these D-Backs in a home outing six days ago. So, if teams thought the Dodgers and their league-best .714 winning percentage were scary before, just think about how they feel now with Buehler potentially hitting his stride. He'll get his second start in a row vs. Arizona -- this time at Chase Field -- but that shouldn't matter. In two previous starts here, Buehler is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts with two walks in 14 innings. Overall, Buehler is 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA in seven starts vs. Arizona. The Dodgers are also 22-7 (+8 games on the moneyline) in Buehler's last 29 starts vs. division opponents. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-20 | Yankees +106 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. J.A. Happ spent the better part of six seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays during two different stints there (2012 - 2014 and 2016-2018). Arguably, the veteran southpaw had his best years with the Jays (he won 20 games with them in 2016 at the age of 33) so it must be at least a little bitter-sweet when he has to face them now. After two straight starts against the Mets, Happ will go opposite his old team for the sixth time since coming to New York, and the first time this season. Happ's numbers this season may not jump off the page at you (1-1 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in five starts covering 25 innings) but he has a way of being effective even when he doesn't have his best stuff. Call him the quintessential "crafty lefty." The Yankees are 20-9 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Happ's last 29 road starts and 27-11 (+11 games on the moneyline) in his last 38 nighttime starts). Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-20 | Rays -156 v. Nationals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -156 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Washington Nationals. Who would have imagined just two years ago that, in September of 2020, the Rays would be prohibitive favorites in DC against the mighty Nationals? Well, as crazy as this season has been, it's even crazier when you consider who the contenders and pretenders are at this stage. With Boston never getting out of the box, the Yanks faltering, and Toronto still at least a year away from being a true contender, the Rays are the overwhelming favorites to win the AL East. Tampa's roster is full of bargain players, and Ryan Yarbrough is a good example. He's not going to win a Cy Young anytime soon, but the 3rd-year southpaw (on a 1-year contract for about $500K) is a very good pitcher who can fill spots in the rotation and provide valuable innings in relief. This evening, he'll get start number eight after coming off the DL for a groin injury. Yarbrough is 16-7 with a 3.44 ERA in 43 night games (17 starts). And he's also 16-5 with a 3.32 ERA in 37 career road games. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-20 | Tigers v. Twins -205 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. When the Twins signed Michael Pineda to a two-year contract at the bargain price of $10 Million back in 2017, they knew they were getting some damaged goods and that Pineda would be a work in progress. And despite a rocky road in 2018 and 2019 that included just 26 starts, some nagging knee issues, and a drug suspension, the Twins thought enough of the veteran RHP to give him another two-year contract last year. It seems like Pineda has been around forever so it's hard to believe that he's just 31-years-old. Pineda is off the restricted list, healthy and ready to contribute. And his opponent this afternoon is, coincidentally, the team against which Pineda last earned an MLB win. That was last September, and he gave up just 5 hits and 1 BB over six innings, en route to an 8-3 victory. Today, Pineda will match up against RHP Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has gone from being the AL Rookie of the Year in 2016, at age 23, to basically being an afterthought just four years later. Fulmer has no wins, and a 7.27 ERA in six starts, covering 17 1/3 innings in 2020. Detroit also is 5-13 (-8 games on the moneyline) in Fulmer's last 18 daytime starts. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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