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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-30-16 | Indians v. Cubs -220 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cleveland Indians. That lack of excitement you hear coming from the Midwestern US is the fans on the North Side of Chicago sitting in stunned silence as their Cubs - who could do little wrong over course of 162 regular season games - are one game away from World Series elimination. The frenzy that was built up over prospect of the first WS games to be played here in over seventy years has been replaced by severe angst as not only have the Cubs still not won a Series game at Wrigley since 1945, but they've barely scored a run here as well. Given the circumstances of being down 3-1 in the last home game of the series, then who better to try to put the team on his back than LH ace Jon Lester? Lester will get his fifth start of the 2016 post-season and this is also a rare chance for him to get some redemption for a sub-par outing his last time against the same team. Lester was the starter in Game 1, and he definitely didn't have his best stuff as he allowed three runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings and took the loss in the 6-0 shutout. But that game was in Cleveland, not Wrigley Field. And all Lester has done this season is lead the Cubs to 15 wins in his 17 home starts, including the last 12 in a row. His two losses: 2-1 to Pittsburgh on May 15, and 2-0 to Colorado on April 17. Of course, neither of those two losses were Lester's fault, as he gave up just 2 earned runs in 14 innings, with 19 strikeouts (against 10 hitters placed on base). For the regular season, Lester's ERA was 1.74 at home, with a 0.88 WHIP. In his 2 Playoff home starts, he's given up 1 earned run and 10 baserunners in 14 innings (0.64 ERA; 0.71 WHIP). So, I look for a Cubs win tonight against Indians RHP Trevor Bauer. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-16 | Indians v. Cubs OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs 'over' the total. The Indians won game four last night behind ace Corey Kluber, but perhaps more surprising than the Tribe taking a 3-1 series lead over the best team in the Majors over the regular season is the fact that more than six runs came across the plate. Last night's game was the first in this series to go over the total, and it did so quite comfortably. Heading into game five with a pitching match-up that features LH Jon Lester against RH Trevor Bauer, there are several reasons to think that tonight's game might cruise over the total as well. First, there is the obvious fact that Bauer has not looked good at all this post-season. He allowed three runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings in his ALDS start, then was pulled from his only ALCS start due to his bleeding pinkie, and then had another sub-par effort in game two of this series. Second, the Indians somewhat inexplicably used their best reliever, LHP Andrew Miller in a mop-up situation last night, and he gave up his first run in the process. So there is a greater chance that men from Mars will land on the mound at Wrigley than there is of the Indians using Miller for the third straight game tonight, especially if the Cubs have a comfortable lead, which is quite possible. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs -200 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -200 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cleveland Indians. Game two of the World Series should be known as the "it was fun while it lasted" game. After dominating the Cubs in game one behind Corey Kluber, running their 2016 post-season record to 8-1, the Indians came back to earth on Wednesday and revealed why they're underdogs to win the Series despite the won-lost record. The problem in game two for Cleveland of course was the starting pitching match-up, and it's the same problem they're going to face in every game that Corey Kluber isn't starting. And that certainly includes tonight. RHP Josh Tomlin has proven that he can be an effective starter this season, but he's going up against yet another Chicago Ace in RH Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks may have looked more dominating in his game six, NLCS-clinching start than any of the other aces on his team - and that's bad news for the Tribe. He'll get his first career World Series start tonight, and it promises to be a crazy scene at Wrigley in the first Series game there in 71 years. It's also his first-ever start against the Indians. Some pitchers might be intimidated by this situation, but Hendricks has been cool as a cucumber, which is why they call him "the Professor". Expect a lesson from him again tonight. Take the Cubs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in Game 3 between the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians. Josh Tomlin will get the start for Terry Francona's club on Friday. Unfortunately, he has a dismal 5.40 ERA in his interleague starts this season, and 6 of his last 7 interleague starts have gone 'over' the total. Even worse: his ERA in his 20 nighttime starts was 4.62 this year. And the Indians have gone 'over' the total in 5 of his last 7 road starts when installed as an underdog, and 25 of his last 39 starts when the line was less than 9 runs. They're also 15-5 'over' vs. teams with a win percentage greater than .620. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-16 | Cubs -149 v. Indians | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cleveland Indians. The Cubs got a heavy dose of Corey Kluber in game one last night and based on the results, they can't be feeling too good about the fact that they will have to see the "Klubot" two more times if this series goes seven games. Kluber was magnificent and the Indians got to Jon Lester just enough to give the home team a critical victory in game one. It likely won't be a similar scenario tonight as, while the Cubs have another ace in RH Jake Arrieta ready to go, the Tribe will have to turn to RHP Trevor Bauer. When last we saw Bauer, his pinkie finger - the victim of a drone propeller attack a few days earlier - was bleeding profusely in the first inning of game three of the ALCS and Bauer had to exit as a result. Even if his team's training staff has done enough to stitch him up this time out, Bauer has seen just 5 1/3 innings of action since his last regular season start on October 1, so he can hardly be considered "Game-ready". Arrieta was victorious in his only previous start at Progressive Field, and he is 12-8 in 27 career inter-league starts. Despite the loss last night, the Cubs are still 8-2 in their last 10 inter-league games vs. teams with a RH starter. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-16 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians 'over' the total. The start time of this game was moved up by one hour due to a threat of rain, and with RHs Jake Arrieta and Trevor Bauer headed to the mound tonight, there is more than one reason to think that the runs - as well as raindrops -could be plentiful in game two. First, there is the obvious fact that Bauer has only seen 5 1/3 innings of live pitching in 25 days due to his finger injury. Second, although just about everyone knows how dominant a pitcher Arrieta is, he hasn't been nearly so this post-season, allowing six runs on 12 hits in his two starts covering 11 innings. And despite his 12-8 overall career record in inter-league games, Arrieta also has a 4.12 ERA in those 27 starts covering 164 innings. And then there's the fact that in his career vs. the Indians, Arrieta's numbers look down-right pedestrian. In four previous starts vs. the Tribe, he is 1-1 with an ugly 8.69 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in just under 20 innings. The over is 12-2-3 in Arrieta's last 17 road starts and 7-1-1 in his last nine road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-16 | Cubs v. Indians +107 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 107 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago Cubs. Besides the obvious intrigue of this Fall Classic featuring the two teams with the longest World Series Championship droughts (107 seasons for the Cubs and 67 for the Indians), there are some other fascinating stories heading into game one tonight in Cleveland. Like the fact that arguably the two most valuable players that were added at the trade deadline this season were relief pitchers that came from the same team (the Yankees) and who are featured - one each - on both of these teams. And while closer Aroldis Chapman had to take a slight back seat to the Cubs starters in the NLCS, Cleveland set-up man Andrew Miller was the runaway choice for ALCS MVP. The clear advantage in starting pitching might go to the Cubs over seven games, but tonight it's a virtual toss-up with LH Jon Lester going on the road against RH Corey "Klubot" Kluber. On the surface, Kluber may seem like he should be quite an underdog considering how Lester has pitched lately, but where Kluber really excels - and the reason the Tribe should be confident - is his incredible record against NL teams. In 15 inter-league starts, Kluber is a stellar 11-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in just under 106 innings. Take Cleveland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-16 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians 'under' the total. The O/U line for the entire NLCS was between six and seven runs and that's exactly where it is for game one of the World Series tonight. And, with LH Jon Lester and RH Corey Kluber going to the mound, it would seem that scoring seven runs will be a bit of a challenge. Lester has had much success against Cleveland in his career, as he is 7-1 in his 15 starts (including a 4-0 record at Cleveland), with a 3.03 ERA in 108 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, Kluber faced the Cubs (and Lester) last season and held Chicago to 1 run on 4 hits in 7 2-3 innings (1.17 ERA). Kluber's 3 playoff starts have all gone 'under,' as have Cleveland's last 7 games, overall. And, tonight, he will be working on 2 extra days of rest. That also bodes well, as he's gone 'under' in 22 of 30 starts when working on an extra day or two of rest. Finally, Chicago's gone 'under' in 36 of 55 interleague games the past 3 seasons. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-16 | Dodgers -130 v. Cubs | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs may be one home win away from a World Series that just about everyone thought they would get to, but they have a surprisingly tough road ahead of them in games six and seven of the NLCS. If tonight's pitching match-up were to be played on opening day this season, the Dodgers would be close to a -200 favorite, but instead the Dodgers are only a slight favorite tonight. It's testimony to how great a season RHP Kyle Hendricks has had. But that doesn't change the fact that the best pitcher on the planet is going to the mound for the visiting team tonight, a pitcher who completely shut the Cubs down here at Wrigley in game two. And it's also interesting to note that in games four and five, while the Cubs were wracking up runs in the latter innings, the Dodgers did not use their top reliever, Kenley Jansen (at all) and they only used their top setup man, Grant Drayton, for 2/3 inning (scoreless). So the Dodgers, led of course by LH Clayton Kershaw, are in a good position to get this series to a seventh and deciding game. The Dodgers are 18-6 in Kershaw's last 24 road starts vs. teams with a winning record, and 11-0 after back to back losses by 4+ runs. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 1-5 in their last six LCS home games, and 6-11 off back to back wins by 4+ runs. Take L.A. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs 'over' the total. This is a classic potential "good news/bad news" scenario for the Cubs. On the bad news front, they have to face two southpaw aces that completely shut them down in games two and three as the Dodgers took those by a combined score of 7-0 behind Rich Hill and, of course, tonight's starter, Clayton Kershaw. On the good news front, they are exactly where they want to be heading back home for games six and seven - up three games to two - just one win away from the World Series.  And more good news comes in the form of their offense, as the Cubs finally broke out in games four and five, and scored 18 runs combined in those contests. Overall, in these playoffs, the Cubs have gone 'over' 5-3-1, while Los Angeles has gone over 6-3-1. And, notwithstanding the success that Kershaw and Hendricks had last Sunday, each has a relatively high ERA over his last 3 outings (Kershaw 3.86; Hendricks 4.50). I look for a relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday, as the last 14 games between these two clubs at Wrigley Field have averaged 8.5 runs per game As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers 'under' the total. Like a junkyard dog that had been tranquilized, the Chicago Cubs woke up from their slumber on Wednesday and proceeded to go crazy. They only needed three runs to win a critical game four, but they put up a double-digit ten-spot on the scoreboard. The number is perhaps a little misleading however, as once the score got away from them, the Dodgers clearly were in "bullpen save" mode, not using their top relievers thus saving them for tonight and beyond. Which brings us to the over/under in game five. To assume that the 10 runs and 13 hits that Chicago put up last night indicates it will be the pattern from here out would be a mistake. With LH Jon Lester and RH Kenta Maeda going to the mound tonight, we could very easily see a return to the type of pitching duel we saw in game two. Lester may have been best known for his dominant home statistics this season, but he was also pretty darn good on the road, going 9-3 with a 3.17 ERA in 17 starts away from Chicago. And his teams have gone 27-12 'under' when priced from -125 to -175. Despite the runs scored on Wednesday, the under is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings. Also, the Dodgers are 48-25 'under' following a game that went 'over' the total. Take the 'under.' MLB Total of the Year! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers 'over' the total. The Cubs may be the best team in Major League Baseball based on their overall record during the regular season, but somebody forgot to tell the Dodgers. After dispatching of the NL East Champion Nationals as a road underdog in the DS, the Dodgers are doing it again versus an even bigger opponent in the Cubs. Granted, they have to win four games in this series instead of the three games it took to beat Washington, but so far anyway, you have to give a huge edge to the Boys in Blue. And it's been the Dodger pitching that has been the story. The mighty Chicago bats that scored 808 runs in 162 regular season games (second only to the altitude-enhanced Rockies) have managed to plate just 25 runs in their first seven playoff games (an average of less than four per game). The idea of Chicago falling behind anyone 3-1 in a best-of-seven series seemed unthinkable at the start of the post-season, but that could happen after tonight, so they will send their most veteran starter, RH John Lackey to the mound to try to even things up. I look for a high-scoring game tonight, as the Cubs have gone 'over' the total in Lackey's last 3 starts. Also, Chicago's gone 'over' the total 46-33 on the road this season, including 7-0 after not hitting a home run in its previous two games. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays -175 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -175 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Indians. The Indians did something on Tuesday that they haven't done in a long time: they lost a playoff game. Terry Francona has been brilliantly unconventional with several things he's done this post-season, and he's at it again, moving to a four-man rotation - if you count the very abbreviated start of RH Trevor Bauer on Monday. And the fourth man Francona has decided to hand the ball to has as little experience as any post-season starter could have as Rookie LH Ryan Merritt has a total of 11 MLB Innings under his belt coming into today. After Aaron Sanchez's performance on Tuesday, you have to wonder if the Jays aren't kicking themselves a bit for not going with the AL ERA Champ in the first game of this series, as they would then have the chance to start him in three of the seven games if they wanted to. But it's too late to worry about that, and now they will turn to the veteran that they sent out for game one - RHP Marco Estrada - to try to keep this series alive and send it back to Cleveland. Estrada has been brilliant and to say he has the experience edge over his opposing starter tonight would obviously be a huge understatement. The Jays are 5-1 in their last six home games vs. teams with a southpaw starter, while Cleveland is 3-10 its last 13 as road underdogs. Take Toronto. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-18-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers 'over' the total. The Cubs will hand the ball to RHP Jake Arrieta tonight and while he is the reigning NL Cy Young winner and arguably the most talented pitcher on the staff, you certainly could say that for this season at least, Arrieta is no better than the third-best Cubs starter (behind Lester and Hendricks). It was a good news/bad news type of season for Arrieta who led the league with the lowest hits per nine innings (6.3) but also led the league with 16 wild pitches, something he's not known for. That wildness may have been at least somewhat responsible for his problems in the last month of the regular season when he allowed 23 runs (21 earned) in just 35 2/3 innings in his final six starts. Arrieta got it together for his only start of the NLDS against the Giants but the fact remains that when he's been on the mound lately, runs have been plentiful. In his last nine starts of the regular season, a total of 103 runs have been scored, or better than 11 runs per game on average. The over is 12-1-3 in Arrieta's last 16 road starts and 7-0-1 in his last eight road starts against teams with a winning record. Also, the Dodgers are 21-9 'over' as an underdog this season. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers -101 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. As if there was any doubt before Saturday night, it's official now: Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. The only thing giving Madison Bumgarner, Max Scherzer, and the Cubs' Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks a shot at the NL Cy Young this season is the fact that LA's ace was on the shelf for more than two months with an injury. Healthy now, Kershaw showed why he is the best hurler on the planet on Saturday, blanking the best team in baseball over seven innings, allowing the Dodgers to even this series coming back to southern California tonight. There's only one problem. The drop off in the Dodgers' rotation after Kershaw is quite steep, and for the three home games ahead of them the home team must now rely on Rich Hill, Julio Urias and (possibly) Kenta Maeda for Game 5. Tonight it will be the LHP Hill, who was pretty spectacular in September after LA acquired him from the A's. He'll match up against RHP Jake Arrieta, and that bodes well for the Dodgers, as they're 73-48 vs. righties this season, but have been lousy (22-26) vs. lefties in 2016.   Similarly, the Cubs have underhit vs. lefties (4.7 rpg) compared to righties (5.13 rpg). Take the Dodgers behind the southpaw Hill on Tuesday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays -114 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Indians. The Jays will not be advancing to the World Series - that much seems almost certain at this point. But that doesn't mean they won't win the game this afternoon - and possibly the next one here at home as well. When you have virtually no room for error - as Toronto does coming into this game four - then you might as well send the AL ERA champion to the mound in an attempt to save your season, and that's exactly what the Jays will do this afternoon. A 3.00 ERA may not seem like it should have won the title, but that's the kind of season it was in the AL, and it's likely that Sanchez will be much more remembered for his 15-2 record than that three-run ERA - and rightfully so. Losing just two games when you start 30 in six months is quite an accomplishment and it's perhaps as much of a tribute to his team as it is to Sanchez's pitching. Sanchez might not consider himself an "artificial turf specialist" (he had more wins on the road this season than he did at home) but that doesn't change the fact that Toronto is 10-3 in his last 13 games on Astroturf. Meanwhile, in his only start here at Rogers Centre, Corey Kluber was on the losing end of a 17-1 thrashing. In last year's playoffs, in elimination games, the Blue Jays went 4-1, and I expect this veteran-laden team to put up another fight this afternoon with its back against the wall. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays -184 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -184 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 3. If you want to know the definition of "backs against the wall", just take a look at the Toronto Blue Jays heading into this game tonight. The Jays pretty much have to win this game of their season is almost certainly over (especially with Kluber getting another start for the Tribe). But the good news is that the pitching match-up tonight favors Toronto, with RHP Marcus Stroman starting opposite RHP Trevor Bauer. The last time we saw Stroman was in a dominant performance against a very good Orioles lineup in the AL Wild Card elimination game as he went six innings, allowing two runs on four hits with six strikeouts and no walks. Stroman was not needed in the quick demolition of the Rangers in the ALDS. The Indians may have wanted to use Bauer in game two at home. but he had an unfortunate accident with a drone (seriously) and cut his pinkie finger, requiring stitches and healing time that removed him from consideration for Saturday. He has proclaimed himself ready to go, but healthy or not, Bauer still has to deal with the fact that in four appearances vs. the Jays (three starts), he is 1-1 with a 6.27 ERA in just under 19 innings. The Blue Jays are 21-7 off back to back games where they failed to score 4+ runs. Take Toronto. MLB Elite Info. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs -183 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Game five of the NLDS between the Dodgers and Nats had a little bit of everything, including a couple of things we haven't seen before: Kenley Jansen throwing 50 pitches to keep L.A. in the game, and then Clayton Kershaw coming in in the ninth to get his first-ever save. But the celebration - as raucous as it was - may be very short-lived, as L.A. comes into this series with a big mountain to climb. Where the Dodgers' rotation order is anyone's guess at this point, the Cubs have four front-line starters rested and ready to go in this series. And it starts with perhaps the best home-field pitcher in the game right now in LH Jon Lester. Lester is 11-2 with an amazing 1.62 ERA in 16 starts at Wrigley and those only two losses were 2-0 to the Rockies and 2-1 to the Pirates, the latter being on May 15. Since then, Lester has been about as perfect as you can be here at home (the Cubs have won his last 11 home starts), including his lone start in the NLDS (game one) when he completely shut down the Giants on eight near-perfect innings. And, given that Lester's teams have gone 29-6 his last 35 home starts when priced at -150 or more, perhaps the Cubs can exploit Lester's home dominance with starts tonight and in game six - should this series go that far. Take the Cubs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | Blue Jays -130 v. Indians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Indians. In one season, LHP JA Happ went from a 32-year-old journeyman pitcher to a 20-game winner who will most likely finish in the top three in the AL Cy Young balloting. Those who were criticizing the Jays for signing Happ to a 3-year, $36 Million contract last November - and there were plenty of them out there - are having a big helping of crow right about now as Happ leads his team into the ALCS as arguably their #1 hurler. He'll need to be at his best as the Tribe hit lefties very well this season, their 777 runs being the second most scored vs. southpaws in the AL during the regular season (Boston - 878). And Happ was at his best in his only regular season start vs. Cleveland as he threw seven strong innings and his offense supported him very nicely en route to an easy 17-1 victory back on July 3. If Happ can leave the game with any sort of lead (it doesn't have to be 16 runs), then the Toronto bullpen will likely finish things off for him. The Jays relievers have been second-to-none in the post-season, with a 1.29 ERA in five games, with opponents batting just .106 against them so far. Finally, Cleveland's won just 3 of its last 14 as an underdog. Take Toronto. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-13-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals 'under' the total. Big games need big game pitchers, and there's possibly none better than Max Scherzer who will get the start tonight as the Nats try to advance to their first League Championship Series. The veteran RH hasn't had his best stuff in recent starts, but he has a way of stepping up when there's a lot on the line, and you can't have more on the line than the Nats do tonight at home. Opposite Scherzer will be LHP Rich Hill, who will go on just three days' rest. Run support has been an issue for Hill since he joined the team at the end of July and that issue continued in his start in game #2 of the NLDS last Sunday when the Dodgers plated just two runs. Don't expect that to change much back here at Nationals Park, so if Hill is to be victorious, he will likely have to hold the Nats to no more than one run while he's in the game. Whichever starter leaves with the lead tonight is the likely winner because both the Nats and Dodgers bullpens have been very, very good. In fact they are the top two bullpens in the NL post-season as the Nats' relievers sport a 1.02 ERA and the Dodgers' come in at 2.81. The under is 9-3 in Scherzer's last 12 home starts. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants +116 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Chicago Cubs. The Giants were able to stave off elimination last night thanks to yet another great performance from their ace, Madison Bumgarner. Tonight, they'll try to do it again and send this series back to Chicago for game five. And they'll go with the other southpaw in their playoff rotation as Matt Moore makes his first post-season start since three years ago as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Moore came to San Francisco at the trade deadline and although his overall results since heading west have been mixed, Moore has really enjoyed pitching at his new home ballpark recently. in his last four starts here at AT&T Park, Moore is 4-0 while allowing five runs in 26 innings for a 1.73 ERA. The Cubs will go with a veteran starter who certainly is no stranger to the post-season. RHP John Lackey will attempt to pull off the rare feat of winning World Series rings with three different teams as he previously reached the pinnacle with the Angels in 2002 and the Red Sox in 2013. But Lackey has struggled on the road all year, winning just four of 13 starts away from Wrigley with a 4.37 ERA (vs. 2.62 at home). Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-16 | Nationals v. Dodgers -235 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Washington Nationals. The Dodgers will take a calculated risk today, down two games to one in this series and facing elimination with one more loss. The risk is sending out Clayton Kershaw on short rest with the season on the line. And it's a risk that is probably worth taking because Kershaw has done well starting on three days' rest in his postseason career. He's done it three times, lasted at least six innings each start, and has compiled a 1.89 ERA in those outings. The goal, of course, is to force a fifth and deciding game back in DC, and Kershaw gives Los Angeles the best opportunity to do so. The other option would have been to start rookie Julio Urias, but then the Dodgers would be second-guessed, much like Buck Showalter was in the Orioles' Wild Card loss for not using Zach Britton. Despite the loss on Monday, the Dodgers are still 44-17 in their last 61 home games while the Nats are just 3-8 in the last 11 meetings. Take the Dodgers. MLB High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-16 | Cubs v. Giants -128 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Chicago Cubs. Not too surprisingly, the Cubs took a 2-0 lead in this series at home after Saturday night's victory and now it shifts to the west coast. The historical contrast between these two teams couldn't be more dramatic. The Cubs haven't won the World Series since 1908 while the Giants have won three of the last six. If you're down to your last hope as the Giants are tonight, then there isn't anyone you would rather have going to the mound than tonight's starter LH Madison Bumgarner. Simply put, Mad-Bum is without question the most dominant post-season performer of the decade, and he showed why in yet another complete-game playoff outing in the NL Wild Card game against the Mets last Wednesday. That road victory improved Mad-Bum's already gaudy playoff numbers to 8-3 with a 1.94 ERA in 15 games including 13 starts (with three complete-game shutouts). After beginning his post-season career in similar fashion with a shutout of the Pirates last October, Cubs RH ace Jake Arrieta had two poor outings (one each in the NLDS and NLCS) to finish up his 2015 campaign. Could Arrieta be another David Price/Clayton Kershaw (great in the regular season; not so good otherwise)? We will find out. Take the Giants. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-16 | Indians v. Red Sox -140 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Cleveland Indians. The Red Sox forgot to pack something when they traveled to Cleveland for games one and two of the ALDS: Their MLB-best offense. In the two games on Thursday and Friday, Boston's potent line-up that averaged a league-best 5.4 runs per game over the course of the season only managed a total of four runs (including a big, fat goose-egg in game two). So like a caged animal with nowhere to go, the Bosox are awfully dangerous this evening as they try to get back into this series. It isn't the prettiest of pitching match-ups, that's for sure, as RHPs Josh Tomlin and Clay Buchholz go to the hill. Tomlin is a soft-tosser and his off-speed stuff has gotten him in plenty of trouble at Fenway Park in the past as he is 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in three starts covering just under 19 innings here prior to today. Tomlin had a disastrous month of August in which he went 0-5 with a 11.86 ERA in his six starts. It's important to note that although he turned things around on paper in September (2-1 with a 1.69 ERA), his four starts last month were two each against the Royals and White Sox. So it's safe to say that today will be his toughest test by far since that unsightly month of August. And the fact that Cleveland's 1-9 its last 10 games as a road underdog certainly doesn't help matters. Take the Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals 'under' the total. The pitching match-up in game one of this series got all of the attention - and deservedly so, with a total of four Cy Young awards and one MVP between Kershaw and Scherzer. But don't sell tonight's billing short either as LHP Rich Hill of the Dodgers goes opposite RH Tanner Roark. Roark earned this game two start with a second half in which posted a 2.60 ERA in 15 starts to catch Scherzer and win the ERA title on the team. But if there was a problem for the 30-year-old down the stretch it was run support (or lack thereof). In the month of August, the Nats scored 39 runs in Roark's six starts, or an average of better than six runs per start. But in September, the bats went cold when Roark was out on the mound, resulting in a total of just 13 runs being scored in his six starts. Not surprisingly, Roark went just 2-3 for the month despite an ERA under three runs. Rich Hill can certainly appreciate Roark's dilemma. In his six starts since coming to Los Angeles from Oakland, the Dodgers have plated a total of just 17 runs. And Hill's ERA over that time of 1.83 makes Roark's look inflated. The under is 9-3-1 in Roark's last 13 starts against teams with a winning record. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays 'under' the total. After barely being able to put anyone across the plate in the Wild Card game on Tuesday night, the Blue Jays didn't waste much time in game one of the ALDS. Toronto came into Arlington last night and proceeded to put up seven runs in the first four innings on its way to smoking the Rangers in a 10-1 blow-out. So Texas' backs are against the proverbial wall this afternoon as the Rangers turn to RH Yu Darvish in game two. The good news is that in seven starts against Toronto, Darvish is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in just under 48 innings. And Darvish has been dominant in his career in day games, going 13-6 with a 2.74 ERA in 28 day-time starts. The Jays will turn to LHP JA Happ who has had a great season, going 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA. He also has a career ERA of 3.07 vs. Texas. The Blue Jays have gone 'under' in 46 of 70 games this year on grass, and 18 of 24 as a road underdog. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -138 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Toronto Blue Jays. The only thing worse than losing a one-game playoff, is needing extra innings, having to use multiple starters (and relievers), and suffering an injury to a key player in victory. This is exactly what happened to the Blue Jays when they beat the Orioles on Tuesday night on a walk-off, three-run homer by Edwin Encarnacion. The injured player is their closer, young Roberto Osuna, who says he was removed from the tie game only because of fatigue, but it sure didn't seem like that when he came out and he likely won't be available tonight in ALDS Game one. The Rangers will go with LHP Cole Hamels who not only is their ace this season, but also has a ton of post-season experience. And he's a winner in October-November as well, with a 7-5 record and 3.03 ERA over 15 playoff starts, including a 2.70 ERA in his only two starts as a member of Rangers' post-season team last year. The Jays have chosen Marco Estrada for the start in Game 1 today. And although he's been very solid lately, the Jays are 1-4 in his last five starts on five days of rest. Meanwhile, the Rangers have won 24 of Hamels' 32 starts this season. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-16 | Orioles +140 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles have made it into the post-season for the third time in five years, and there's no doubt they're a dangerous team led by a powerful lineup of big bats and the best ninth-inning stopper in the game (Zach Britton). They will now take that offensive power and relief talent into Canada for one game that will determine their entire season. And if they win and advance to the ALDS, a lot of people will be second-guessing Toronto's choice of starters. The Jays are going with RHP Marcus Stroman tonight instead of LHP Francisco Liriano. Those are the two choices they're facing with JA Happ, Aaron Sanchez, and Marco Estrada unavailable (and RA Dickey seemingly out of the rotation). Why will there be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking if Toronto is sent packing? Well, for one, Stroman is a losing pitcher (9-10) with a 4.37 ERA and who had gone 0-5 in the month of September. Second, if that vaunted O's lineup has one weakness, it's southpaw pitching as Baltimore batted a league-low .234 vs. lefties this season. The Jays lost three of Stroman's four starts vs. the Birds in 2016 and the O's just took two of three here at the end of September. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Orioles -133 v. Yankees | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the New York Yankees. It seems like it's never easy for the Baltimore Orioles. If they had won their game yesterday here in the Bronx, the O's would already be with a Wild Card slot and could be going for home field in the one-game playoff today. But they blew a seventh-inning lead and so instead they're in a win-or-go golfing situation where they also have to hope for some help from other games. The good news is that the Yanks will send rookie RH Luis Cessa to the mound for this ninth start today (17th appearance). Cessa's ERA here at Yankee Stadium is almost two runs higher than it is on the road (5.12 vs. 3.27) in the same number of starts (four). Of course, O's RHP Kevin Gausman's road numbers are considerably worse than those back in Baltimore, but he's making the most important start of his career and we think he'll be up to the task. And he's 2-0 with a 2.64 ERA in five daytime games this season (vs. 6-12 and 2.88 in 24 under the lights). The Yankees are 2-6 in their last eight games vs. a right-handed starter. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Mets v. Phillies -145 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. The Mets locked up a Wild Card spot - their second consecutive post-season appearance - and as a result, they will rest Noah Syndergaard today so that the ace is available for the one-game playoff at home. That means rookie RH Gabriel Ynoa will get just his third start of the season today (he also has seven relief appearances) and when you look at the youngster's numbers you notice that he's allowed 21 hits in less than 14 innings with six walks. That's an indication that the 23-year-old Dominican hasn't learned how to mix his pitches yet as he's obviously been grooving too many fastballs - something you can't do at this level. If the Mets are successful in their one-game playoff, don't expect to see Ynoa get any starts from here out. The Phillies will send out RHP Jerad Eickhoff for their finale and no doubt the second-year starter would love to add a 12th victory to his 2016 ledger. That's no small task on this team and it sets Eickhoff up nicely for perhaps a breakout campaign with the team next year. In six career starts vs. the Mets, Eickhoff has never allowed more than three runs and he owns five quality starts against them. Take the Phillies. MLB Roadkill. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Blue Jays -111 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. J.A. Happ is 20-4 on the season, and has a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts. But his season would be for naught if the Blue Jays can't get into the MLB Playoffs as a wild card. Thus, tonight's game is his most important start of the season, given that Toronto and Detroit are tied in the loss column for the final playoff berth. Toronto has dropped three straight, including a 5-3 loss last night to open this 3-game series. And it's scored just 5 runs combined in its last three games. But the Jays are an awesome 20-7 after scoring 3 runs or less in two straight games, and also a perfect 8-0 on the road after scoring 3 runs or less in three straight games. And they're also 3-0 this year vs. Boston when Happ has started. Boston will hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez, and Boston is an awful 1-7 at home this season with Roridguez on the hill. That, of course, isn't much of a surprise since Rodriguez' home ERA is a dismal 6.10. He's also 1-3 in his career vs. the Jays, with a 6.85 ERA. Take the Blue Jays. MLB High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Mets -184 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Philadelphia Phillies. Veteran RH Bartolo Colon goes for his 15th win of the season this afternoon and if he gets it, it would be the ninth time he's reached that milestone and certainly not many starters can say that. And the 43-year-old probably couldn't ask for a better match-up in which to get that milestone. Colon has two wins already against the Phillies this season which brings his career total victories over them to an even 10 (in 18 starts). Colon has not eclipsed 100 pitches in a start since August, so he should be plenty strong heading into his final start of the regular season. The disappointment for Colon would be the fact that this start in all likelihood takes Colon out of the running for the starting assignment in the Wild Card game should the Mets hang on and get to the post-season. For the Phillies, this will be a bullpen game as RH reliever Phil Klein gets his second spot start of the season and just the fourth of his career. Klein and his 12.15 ERA on the season get the opportunity today because the Phils have decided to shut down Jake Thompson. With their win on Friday, the Mets are 42-17 in the last 59 meetings. Colon has a .633 career win percentage in day games (81-47) vs. .568 in night games. Take the Mets. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-16 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves 'under' the total. The Braves prepare to play their final weekend at Turner Field as they will move to SunTrust Park in Cobb County next season and unfortunately the only positive vibes surrounding these last few games of 2016 is in fact that good riddance they'll say to their old ballpark. There hasn't been much to celebrate this season, that's for sure, but RHP Josh Collmenter, who gets his final start of the season is likely happy to have a job. Collmenter has provided the Braves with exactly what they wanted when they acquired him from the Cubs to fill a void in their injury-depleted rotation. The veteran, who had spent most of this season in the Diamondbacks' bullpen, has won both of his starts and looks to make it three in a row tonight. For the Phillies (who also have little to celebrate as the season winds down), RHP Jeremy Hellickson makes his final start of the season, and likely his last with the Phillies. Hellickson is set to be a free agent and given his strong performance in 2016, he will likely be offered multi-year contracts from other teams. Take the 'under.'  NL Total of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-16 | Cubs v. Pirates -105 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Chicago Cubs. With literally nothing left to play for (they've locked up home field and won over 100 games), the Cubs will start to rest some of their regular starters in preparation for the long post-season road to the World Series. Tonight, they will give LHP Rob Zastryzny his first MLB start. Zastryzny has pitched out of the bullpen exclusively for Chicago this season with seven bullpen appearances and he was a combined 10-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 24 games (23 starts) at Triple-A and Double-A as well. Expect to see just a small sampling of Zastryzny and a lot of the rest of the Cubs relievers tonight as Arrieta, Lackey, Lester and Company get the evening off. For the Pirates, RHP Ivan Nova will attempt to close his up-and-down season on a high note. After stinking things up in the Bronx, Nova came to Pittsburgh and immediately became one of their top starters, going 7-1 with an ERA around 2.5 in his first eight starts with the Pirates. But he's cooled off in his last two and no doubt would like to show the Pirates (and the rest of the league) that he deserves a starting job next year (Nova will be a Free Agent at the end of the season). Pittsburgh's won 20 of 29 vs. lefty starters this season. Take the Pirates. Mound Mismatch Massacre. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-28-16 | Dodgers -167 v. Padres | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -167 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. In a script that appropriately enough seemed to come straight out of Hollywood, on Sunday the Dodgers won their fourth-straight NL West Crown. Not only did the pennant-clinching win take place in front of a sold-out Dodger Stadium crowd of over 50,000, but it also came on the same night that legendary announcer Vin Scully called his last game at Chavez Ravine (Scully will not work any post-season games). Now the Dodgers will finish up the regular season here in San Diego followed by games in San Francisco as they attempt to secure home field in the NLDS against the Nationals. With the recent returns of Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, and Scott Kazmir, it remains to be seen whether rookie RHP Jose de Leon will remain in the rotation, however the youngster has an important start in front of him tonight. De Leon's first career victory was against the Padres in his MLB debut at home, and he'll look to duplicate that tonight at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Dodgers are 43-20 in the last 63 meetings and 7-3 in the last 10 in San Diego. Take L.A.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-16 | Rays v. White Sox -166 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. At the All-Star Break, it looked like White Sox LHP Chris Sale was a shoe-in for the AL Cy Young with a whopping 14 wins in 18 starts and a 3.38 ERA. At that point, a 20-win season seemed like a given for the southpaw ace. But here we are with just one week to go, and Sale has just 16 victories to his credit. Although his ERA has been better in the second half, Sale has only managed two wins (with six losses) in his 12 post-break starts. He won't get to 20 wins, but if he can win tonight and then perhaps get a chance on closing day (Sunday), Sale could at least reach 18 for the first time in his career. Tonight he has a great chance to pick up victory number 17 as the Rays visit Chicago for the first time this season. Sale faced them in St. Pete back on April 15 and had his best start of the season - and his only complete-game shutout, his first of a league-leading six complete games in 2016. The Rays will turn to RHP Alex Cobb who has now had four starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, although he was able to go slightly longer in his pitch counts in starts 1-3, Cobb suffered a major regression in his last outing as he allowed seven runs on nine hits in just 1 1/3 innings. Heading into Monday, the home team is 6-3 in the last nine meetings. Take the Sox. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-16 | Mets v. Marlins +110 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the New York Mets. The tragic and untimely death of their superstar pitcher - Jose Fernandez - has put a dark cloud over an otherwise mostly successful season for the Marlins (they've already improved on their 2015 campaign). After the cancellation of their game against the Braves on Sunday, the Marlins will try to get back to the business of baseball tonight with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread. It will be up to the players, and especially LHP Adam Conley to help the home fans heal today and perhaps a win over their Division Rivals from New York - as meaningless as that may seem in the scheme of things - will help fill Marlins Park with some positive feelings. Conley will go to the hill for the 25th time tonight opposite a starter who is old enough to be Fernandez's father in RHP Bartolo Colon. Conley will need to keep his emotions in check, and the Mets will have to play like their post-season life depends on it - which it does. Conley has faced the Mets three times in his career (twice in 2016) and he has thrown quality starts in each of those, allowing just two earned runs in a combined 19 innings. The Marlins are 10-2 in Conley's last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Miami. MLB Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-16 | Rangers v. A's -104 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have recently locked up their second straight AL West Crown - and fourth in the last seven seasons, and now they're trying to secure home-field advantage as well. Despite their overall success, the Rangers will have some decisions to make regarding their post-season rotation, including what they're going to do with today's starter - RH Colby Lewis. Coming into tonight, Lewis has had two almost-identical starts since returning from the DL about two weeks ago, and unfortunately that's not a good thing as neither of them was very good. Lewis has allowed six earned runs in 10 2/3 innings since coming back from a strained lat muscle, and he's also given up seven walks and four homers in those two outings. For the A's, another glimpse of the future of their pitching appears to be bright as rookie RH Jharel Cotton has looked very impressive in his three starts so far. The former 20th-round draft choice of the LA Dodgers has allowed just three ER on 11 hits in 18 innings with 11 strikeouts and just two walks. Texas is 4-9 in their last 13 road games vs. teams with a losing home record. Take the A's. Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-16 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total. The Red Sox enter the last week of the regular season having locked up a playoff spot and in position to win their second AL East in the last four seasons (2013). When you add 2007 to that you realize that the last two times the Sox have won the East, they've hoisted the World Series trophy come November. And things couldn't be setting up any better for the Sox after they swept the Orioles over four games in Baltimore early in the week then traveled south for a weekend series against the Rays. They'll finish up the season next weekend back at Fenway after a trip to the Bronx. Saturday night, the Sox made it 10 wins in a row and now they go for their second series sweep in a row against RHP Jake Odorizzi. Boston will turn to LHP Eduardo Rodriguez who hopes to perform better than the last time he pitched here back on June 27. That one was Rodriguez's worst start of the season as he allowed nine runs on 11 hits in just 2 2/3 innings. Rodriguez has faced the Rays three times in his career, and each time he did, the runs were plentiful. The two teams have plated 47 total runs in those three meetings. The over is 9-2 in the Rays' last 11 home games. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Braves v. Marlins -142 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Atlanta Braves. By almost any measure, 2016 has been a very disappointing season for LHP Wei-Yin Chen. Signed in the off-season by the Marlins to a 2-year contract worth $28 Million, Chen has only managed five wins in his 20 starts with a 5.04 ERA. Injuries have no-doubt played a huge part in Chen's struggles in his first season in South Florida, as the 31-year-old missed almost two months with a sprained elbow. But there is some reason for optimism heading into next season. In his first start back from the DL last Monday, Chen looked very good, as he allowed just four hits in 4 1/3 innings with three strikeouts and no walks here at home against the Nationals (although he did give up three runs). He was on a pitch count in that one and will likely be again tonight as he faces the Braves for the fourth time this season. After losing Chen's first three starts here at Marlins Park (his first three outings of the season), the Marlins have gone 7-0 in Chen's last seven home starts (going back to April 20) coming into tonight. Take the Fish. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-16 | Rangers -149 v. A's | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Oakland Athletics. Rangers LH ace Cole Hamels will attempt to shake the AL West curse that he seems to have been cast on him recently when he faces the A's in Oakland tonight for his 31st start of the season. Hamels' last four starts have all been against Division opponents and over that span the normally reliable southpaw has allowed 21 runs on 25 hits in just 18 innings (a 10.50 ERA). Prior to that, in starts against the Indians, Rays, Tigers, Rockies, Orioles, Royals, and White Sox, Hamels was brilliant. The good news about those last four vs. AL West opponents is that although Hamels got roughed up in all but one of them, the Rangers managed to win three, and so now they are 5-1 in Hamels' last six outings and 15-4 in his last 19 going back to early June. One of the differences between this game and Hamels last start (which also happened to be against the A's) is that tonight he will be pitching in Oakland - a place he's been quite fond of in his two career starts there. Hamels is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in just under 13 innings at the Coliseum. Texas is 16-6 in Hamels' last 22 road starts. Take the Rangers. MLB Road Warrior. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-16 | Royals v. Indians -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. The Indians are closing in on their first Division Crown in ten seasons, and what will make this title especially sweet for them is how they have persevered in the second half despite some major pitching injuries. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar were instrumental in getting Cleveland into the lead before the All Star Break, but now both aces have been shut down for the remainder of the season (Salazar is hoping to come back for the playoffs). That's meant that pitchers like RH Mike Clevinger - who goes to the mound for his ninth start of the season tonight - have had to step up and fill in for some pretty good stars. And the rookie has done just done that, having posted a 2.92 ERA in his last nine appearances - which includes four starts - covering 24 2/3 innings. For the Royals, LHP Jason Vargas was on a big league mound last Saturday for the first time in 14 months, after recovering from Tommy John surgery. He allowed a run on two hits over three innings vs. the White Sox and he'll likely be on a strict pitch count again tonight. The Indians are second in runs scored vs. southpaws this season with 206 and their .272 BA vs. lefties is fourth-best in the A.L. as well. Finally, the Royals are an awful 6-23 as a road underdog priced from +125 to +175 this year, while the Tribe is 24-8 as a home favorite priced from -125 to -175. Take Cleveland. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-16 | Red Sox v. Orioles -104 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Boston Red Sox. The great thing about being a starting pitcher in a pennant race is that you can effectively erase the poor performances you had earlier in a season if you can pitch well enough to win games down the stretch against your Division Rivals. Such is the 2016 story of the Orioles' RH Ubaldo Jimenez. Saying that Jimenez didn't pitch well in the first half would be a huge understatement as the veteran went 5-9 with a 7.38 ERA in 18 games including 17 starts before the All-Star Break. He lost his starting job in early August, making three more appearances out of the bullpen before being re-inserted on August 25. Now he has that chance to make everyone forget about that disastrous first-half if he can win games like the one tonight against the first-place Red Sox. So far, Jimenez has made the most of his second chance as a starter in 2016, as the O's have gone 4-1 in his last five starts including his first complete game of the season in his first start of September in Tampa. RH Clay Buchholz gets the start tonight and like Jimenez, he is trying to show that he belongs in the rotation after being demoted earlier. But Buchholz has a career 5.10 ERA in 10 appearances at Camden Yards. And Baltimore's 9-0 in Jimenez's last nine home starts vs. division rivals. Take Baltimore. MLB Roadkill. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-16 | Nationals v. Marlins -153 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Washington Nationals. The Nats road to their third division crown in the last five years has take a slight detour lately. First, no sooner had they figured they would likely go 3-0 this weekend in Atlanta, thus almost sealing the deal in the NL East, the worst team in the NL decided to play some serious ball and the Braves took two of three. Now DC has to come to South Florida and face a starter who has absolutely owned it. The Marlins might shut down RH ace Jose Fernandez once they've been eliminated from the Wild Card Race (which could be soon), but for tonight at least, the Marlins' RH ace will try to add one more victory over the Nats this season. So far, he's been unstoppable as he is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA vs. them in 2016 and on top of that, he will be pitching on an extra day's rest. Tanner Roark comes into this start for the Nats looking for a career-best 16th win but it could be difficult as he's already faced the Fish four times in 2016, and the veteran RHP is just 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in just under 22 innings. Miami is 32-5 in Fernandez's last 37 home starts. Take the Marlins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-16 | Giants v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. The Marquee match-up of what many people consider to be the two best left-handers in the game is taking place for the third time this season (and first since April 15) with the Dodgers having won both of the earlier Mad-Bum vs. Kershaw games. The L.A. ace returned to action recently from a bulging disk and in his first start in more than two months on September 9, Kershaw definitely had some cobwebs he needed to shake off. However in his second start back, last Wednesday in inter-league action in the Bronx, Kershaw was brilliant, holding the Yankees to one hit in five innings with five strikeouts and no walks. Despite the fact that this is a very important series, the Dodgers likely won't take chances with their ace and Kershaw may only go five or six innings tonight. And there-in lies perhaps the biggest difference between these two teams right now. L.A. can rely on its bullpen, as their relievers have posted a league-best 2.24 ERA this month. The same can't be said of the Giants, who have had all sorts of problems holding down leads late in games, having gone to a closer-by-committee after relieving Santiago Casilla of the role. L.A. has won Kershaw's last five starts vs. the Giants. Take the Dodgers. MLB Roadkill. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-16 | Marlins v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total. The Marlins felt they were in a position in late July to make a legitimate run for the post-season in the second half. And why not? As recently as July 27 the Marlins were sitting nine games over .500 and ahead of the Mets in the wild card race. And so they decided to get pitching help before the trade deadline. But they didn't have a lot to offer and didn't want to completely mortgage their future past this season, so Miami decided the would go for a mid-level starter rather than trying to land a star. They settled on Andrew Cashner from the Padres, shipping Carter Capps, Jarred Cosart and two minor leaguers to San Diego for the veteran RH. It hasn't worked out. Cashner has been awful since coming to South Florida, going 1-4 with a 6.13 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts. And as if his performances aren't bad enough without excuses, Cashner appeared to be suffering from a blister on his pitching hand in his last start, another disastrous outing as he lasted just two innings, allowing seven runs against the lowly Braves in Atlanta. The over is 7-1-1 in Miami's last nine road games. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-16 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners 'under' the total. After he came virtually out of nowhere to win 30 games and post an ERA right around three runs the past two seasons combined, to say the Astros' RH Collin McHugh has taken a step backwards would be quite an understatement. It's been more like a leap. In 29 starts, McHugh is 10-10 with an ugly ERA and WHIP of 4.86 and 1.49 respectively. Perhaps a start against the team that he had arguably his best outing of the season against will help McHugh end his regular season on a high note. On July 17 in this same ballpark, McHugh threw six shutout innings against the Mariners, allowing just four hits while striking out 10. But he may have a run support problem tonight. On Wednesday, two of the 'Stros most consistent hitters, superstar 2B Jose Altuve and 3B/SS Alex Bregman left the game early with apparent muscle injuries (Altuve to his oblique and Bregman to his leg). They have all but been ruled out for this game as of this writing, and the rest of the Houston lineup will have its hands full with RH Felix Hernandez who goes to the mound for his 22nd start of the season. The under is 5-1 in McHugh's last six starts after the team scored five or more runs in its previous game, and 59-26 in Seattle's last 85 after not allowing 3+ runs in any of its previous 3 games. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-16 | Blue Jays -165 v. Angels | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Los Angeles Angels. On August 17, Jays LHP JA Happ won his 17th game with an ERA just barely over 3.0 and looked like he would be the first to 20 wins and probably the AL Cy Young favorite at that point. However, in his four starts since then, Happ has struggled a bit, winning just one more game while seeing his ERA rise to 3.33. And Boston ace Rick Porcello has passed him in the win column, becoming the first to reach the 20 mark while becoming the clear favorite now for that Cy Young hardware. But Happ has other things on his mind as he no doubt is more concerned with helping his team get back to the ALCS than he is with personal accolades. And he has a huge chance to help his team tonight against the Angels and rookie RH Daniel Wright who gets his second start with Anaheim and just the fourth in his MLB career. Wright is auditioning for a job with the Halos next season, and as bad as this team's minor league pipeline is, he just might find himself on the roster come Spring despite an 0-2 record and 7.50 ERA in his 18 innings coming in. But tonight should belong to the Jays who are 21-6 in Happ's last 27 starts and 8-1 in his last nine vs. teams with a losing record. Take Toronto. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-16 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals 'under' the total. Jake Arrieta and Adam Wainwright may be considered the "marquee" pitchers on these teams, but it's arguably been LH Jon Lester and RH Carlos Martinez who have been the best - and most consistent - for their respective clubs, especially in the second half. Those two will face off this afternoon in a game that even the Cardinals would have to admit means much more to the home team than it does to the visitors from Chicago. Since the All-Star break, these two starters have a combined record of 13-1 (in 20 starts) and while Lester's ERA is considerably lower over that span than Martinez at 1.65, the latter has won his last four decisions (five starts), while allowing just seven earned runs in 34 innings (a 1.85 ERA). So there are few starters hotter than the 24-year-old Cardinal right now and while any game against the Cubs is a tough one, the Cards are hoping to improve their Wild Card chances with a win this afternoon. Both of these aces are also outstanding in day games with career 3.12 and 2.92 ERAs under daytime conditions respectively (vs. 3.62 and 3.58 under the lights). The under is 6-0 in Lester's last six and 8-1 in the Cards last nine vs. a LH starter. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-13-16 | Rangers v. Astros -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Texas. If the Houston Astros are going to win enough games in the final three weeks to clinch a playoff spot, they're going to have to do it with a depleted starting rotation. But the losses of regular starters Lance McCullers and Dallas Keuchel - both possibly for the rest of the season - will mean opportunities for some other arms on the roster. One of those is veteran RH, and former Washington National, Brad Peacock, who will go to the mound for his second start of the season this evening. Peacock has pitched well this season, albeit in limited action, with a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Tonight, he will work on an extra 2 days' of rest, and his teams have gone 7-1 in his last 8 games on extra rest. The Rangers will send RH AJ Griffin out for his 21st start, and despite some pretty ugly numbers, Griffin has gone 7-4 and the team has gone 13-7 in his outings thanks to some strong run support. Unfortunately, one cannot assume such run support will continue. For the season, his ERA on the road is a dismal 5.52, and his ERA vs. division rivals is 6.25. The recent trend for Griffin is also bad, as he has a 6.32 ERA over his last 3 starts. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-16 | Mets v. Nationals -135 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Mets. Attendance at Nats games hasn't been great lately, which is a bit strange since they are a first-place team with plenty of stars on the roster. Tonight will be no exception as the Redskins kick off their NFL season at home with a Monday Night match-up against the Steelers (about 10 miles from Nationals Park). There could be almost as many Mets fans in the stands here tonight as Nats fans especially when you consider they're one of the hottest teams in the Majors recently. Of course, most of those wins have come against the likes of the Marlins, Reds, and Braves (although they did take two of three from the Nats in Queens recently too). Tonight, they will come into DC where they have won just two of six this season. RH Rafael Montero will get his third start of the season for New York and although the Mets won both of his previous ones, Montero walked 10 batters in a combined 9 1/3 innings in those and he'll have to do better than that tonight to have a chance against this DC lineup. Washington's 45-19 this season vs. division rivals, and Mat Latos has a career 2.92 ERA vs. the Mets (Montero's career ERA vs. the Nats is 9.00). Take the Nationals. MLB High Roller. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-11-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +104 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants. Zach Greinke will start for the D-Backs this afternoon, and his first season in Arizona has continued a fantastic long-term trend. Greinke is simply the best in baseball when pitching at home, and especially as a favorite. In his career, he's now 97-37 as a home favorite (+41 games on the moneyline). With that as a backdrop, it's tough to make a case for the San Francisco Giants on Sunday. Matt Moore will be on the hill for San Fran, but the Giants are 4-9 in his 13 road starts, and his ERA is 4.61 away from home. Even worse: Greinke excels against San Francisco, as he's 9-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his career. Take Arizona this afternoon. MLB Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | Giants -163 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants have fallen 4 1/2 games behind the Dodgers in the race for the NL West title, a position they've been pretty used to the last three seasons. But the chances of them winning another World Series as a Wild Card team this season (like they did in 2014) are very slim. If the Giants are going to catch L.A., they will need their starting rotation to step up in the last three weeks, and no one's performance will be more critical than RHP Johnny Cueto. Cueto has been outstanding in his first season in San Francisco, having posted a 14-5 record with a 2.92 ERA and league-leading four complete games in his 28 starts. And Cueto has been just as effective on the road this season as he has in his own pitcher-friendly venue, as he is 8-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 15 road starts (vs. 6-3 and 2.88 in 13 at AT&T Park. Tonight presents a great chance for Cueto to get victory number 15 on the season as the Giants have dominated this series lately, taking 11 of the last 13 meetings vs. the D-Backs. They're also 31-10 in the last 41 meetings in Arizona. Take San Francisco. MLB Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-16 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. Last night, the Jays dropped their 4th straight game, which placed them 2 games behind the division-leading Red Sox. With just 22 games left, the Jays certainly have their backs against the wall, as the Orioles and Tigers now sit just 1 game back in the loss column. This afternoon, the Jays will hand the ball to J.A. Happ, who has led them to victory in 20 of 27 starts this season (and 17 of 22 when installed as a favorite). Happ's ERA at home has been especially good (3.05 ERA), and he's also been strong against Boston in his career (3.86 ERA). Meanwhile, his mound counterpart this afternoon, Eduardo Rodriguez, has struggled in his career vs. the Blue Jays, with an ERA north of 8 runs per game. And in his lone start this season, Rodriguez gave up 5 runs in 5 2-3 innings in a loss at Fenway. Both pitchers will be working today on an extra day of rest. Unfortunately for Boston, Rodriguez has only won 25% of his starts this season with extra rest, while Happ has led the Jays to victory in 70% of his starts this season with extra rest. Take Toronto. Mound Mismatch Massacre! |
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09-09-16 | Mets v. Braves +110 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. Atlanta RH ace Julio Teheran missed about three weeks starting at the beginning of August due to a lat muscle strain. When he first came back on August 19, Teheran had some obvious rust and he struggled for two starts. But in his last two since then on August 30 against the Padres and September 4 in Philadelphia Teheran has looked like the dominant starter that he was for most of the first half. More importantly, Teheran received some solid run support and won both of those while allowing just two runs on 11 hits in 13 innings. The Mets pitching injuries continue, so they will have to turn to rookie RH Robert Gsellman for his third start of the season. This will be just Gsellman's second road start and despite the Braves poor season, this may be a very tough spot for the rookie as the Mets are just 2-5 in the last seven meetings with the Braves. And though there aren't many pretty numbers for Atlanta this season, the Braves are 7-2 in their last nine games vs. teams with a RH starter as well as 5-2 in their last seven games following a loss. Take Atlanta. ELITE INFO. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-16 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks 'under' the total. Things could be looking up for the Dodgers. Way up as a matter of fact. They have a four-game lead in the West now, Yasiel Puig is back with the team (and acting in a responsible manner), and Rich Hill is apparently over his blister issues. But the biggest news of all is that they're scheduled to get the best pitcher in baseball back this weekend as Clayton Kershaw prepares to make his return just in time for the final three-week push. Tonight, however, it will be RHP Brock Stewart getting the fourth start of his career. Stewart came into his start against the Cubs last Sunday with an 11.25 ERA but pitched the game of his life, holding one of the top offenses in baseball SCORELESS over five innings. The Dodgers won that one 1-0 in a no-decision for the 24-year-old, so he will be seeking his first-ever MLB win tonight in what could be his last start of the season. And I think he will pitch very well. I also like D-Backs LH Robbie Ray to have a solid game, as his road numbers (3.94 ERA; 1.31 WHIP) are much better than his home numbers. Finally, L.A. is 58-39 'under' as a home favorite this year, including 12-2 'under' when priced between -125 and -150. Take the Dodgers and D-Backs 'under.' |
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09-07-16 | Giants v. Rockies -116 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Francisco Giants. If the Rockies job in the last six weeks of the season is to play the role of "Spoiler" then they're doing a pretty darn good job so far. Since the middle of August, Colorado has taken two of three series from the Cubs, Dodgers, and twice from the Nationals. Then to begin this series, they blanked the Giants, 6-0 on Monday behind a brilliant performance (complete game) by starter Chad Bettis. They'll try to make it up to the Dodgers for taking two of three from them last week by taking the second of three against San Francisco tonight. And with their next 10 games all coming against the Padres and Diamondbacks, a Wild Card spot is still not entirely out of the question. Tonight it will be LH veteran Jorge De La Rosa getting his 22nd start of the season (he also has three relief appearances). De La Rosa will try to match last year's total with his ninth win and he will be going opposite a rookie in RHP Albert Suarez who will be making his first start against the Rox and first at Coors Field (he pitched here in long relief back in April). He's 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in eight games (five starts) on the road this season. Take Colorado. MLB Elite Info. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-16 | Astros v. Indians -184 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over Houston. Cleveland dropped the first two games of this series, but I look for it to win tonight behind RH Carlos Carrasco. He's been brilliant over his last 3 outings (1.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and has dominated Houston in his career (2.13 ERA; 0.86 WHIP). With the Indians at 18-6 when playing with revenge from 2 straight home losses, we'll take the Tribe tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates -124 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis. Yes, the Buccos have dropped eight straight games, while St. Looey has won 3 in a row. But Pittsburgh has the much better pitcher on the hill tonight. Jameson Taillon has a superb 3.36 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and even though he lost 2 of his last 3 starts, he gave up just 3 runs in 14 innings in those 2 games combined. Meanwhile, Mike Leake's ERA on the road this year is a dismal 4.55, and his teams have gone 12-15 vs. Pittsburgh in his 27 starts. After scoring 12 + 9 runs over the first two games of this series, I look for the Cards to get shut down tonight, as they're a poor 21-35 (minus 26 games on the moneyline) after scoring 9+ in back to back games. Take Pittsburgh. |
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