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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 51 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the 'under' in the San Antonio/Golden State game. The Warriors have won over 50 games each of the past four years. In 2014, they were 51-31, and averaged 104.2 ppg. In their 2015 Championship season, the Warriors won 67 games, and averaged 109.9 ppg. Last year, in their 73-win season, their offensive production increased to 114.8 ppg. And this season, the Warriors' offense bumped up even further to 115.8 ppg. But when they play at San Antonio, the Spurs have been able to control the pace, and limit Golden State's point production. Over this time, the Warriors have played seven games at San Antonio, and have scored 74, 90, 92, 79, 92, 85 and 110 points. Not surprisingly, five of those seven games went 'under' the total. To put this into context, consider that the Warriors have played 390 games over the past four seasons, and have played just 28 games (7.1%) where they scored 92 or less points. But the Spurs have held the Warriors to 92 or less points in six of the seven meetings between the two teams at San Antonio. The Spurs have also gone 'under' 64% of the time at home under coach Gregg Popovich when trailing in a Playoff series. Take the 'under.' NBA Total of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Cleveland. The Cavaliers blew out the Celts, 117-104, on Wednesday. But Cleveland had a huge advantage in terms of "rest" in that game, as it was playing with 9 days off. That won't be the case this evening. I look for Boston to get the ATS win, as home teams are 101-68 ATS in Playoff games off a Straight-up and ATS home playoff defeat, if they’re trailing in the series by exactly one game, including 21-12 ATS as home underdogs. Likewise, in Game 2 of a Playoff series, home dogs are 7-1 ATS since 1991 including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS off a loss to open the series. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-16-17 | Spurs +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 100-136 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Golden State. It's absolutely true that the Spurs are wounded tonight, without their best player, Kawhi Leonard, in uniform. But it's dangerous to lay this many points to any playoff team. And especially when the favored team is off a playoff win, and not trailing in the series. Indeed, our NBA teams are an awful 1-10 ATS their last 11 in this situation when laying 12+ points. More ammunition for backing San Antonio: this is the most points the Spurs have received in any game since drafting Tim Duncan in 1997. The Spurs have been solid as big dogs, too, as they're 75% ATS as dogs of more than 8 points since 2002. Finally, San Antonio falls into 18-0, 80-37, and 39-11 ATS Systems of mine. Take the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 211.5 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 17 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in Game 7 between Washington and Boston. These two teams easily went 'under' the total in Game 6, as they combined for just 183 points (against an over/under line of 215). And since 1991, teams that went 'under' the total by 31+ points in their previous playoff game also went 'under' 61.4% in the game after that, including 77% if the line was 204 or more points. Take the 'under' in the Celtics/Wizards game tonight. NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-17 | Spurs +8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Houston. The Rockets lost Game 5 in Overtime, 110-107, to San Antonio on Tuesday, and now trail 3-games-to-2 in this Best-of-7 series. It’s true that Houston has home court advantage tonight, but that hasn’t proven to be a meaningful factor over the years, as home teams down 3-games-to-2 in a series are an awful 42-65 ATS since 1991, including 27–50 ATS if their opponent was seeded in the Top 2 of its conference. In the first round of this year’s Playoffs, we saw this situation four times where the road team took a 3-2 series lead into Game 6, and all four times, the road team prevailed. One of those, of course, was this Spurs team vs. Memphis, and the others were Toronto/Milwaukee, Washington/Atlanta and Boston/Chicago. Moreover, since 1991, San Antonio has gone 12-4 straight-up and 11-5 ATS when leading 3-games-to-2 in a Playoff series. And coach Gregg Popovich is 19-5 straight-up and 15-7-2 ATS vs. Mike D’Antoni in the Playoffs, including 9-2 straight-up and 8-2-1 ATS on the road. Take San Antonio. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 62 h 7 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Washington. The 4th-seeded Wizards come into this game off back-to-back blowout wins over Boston, by 27 and 19 points. Unfortunately for Scotty Brooks' men, NBA teams are an awful 0-12 ATS since 1991 off back to back playoff wins by more than 10 points, if they're matched up against a #1 seed with a win percentage of .745 (or worse). And #4 seeds are a dreadful 27-56-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win by 12+ points. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -6 | Top | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 13 m | Show |
Our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs. Analysis to follow. |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets over the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs started rookie Dejounte Murray at point guard in Tony Parker's stead on Friday. And, though Murray was shaky early on with two turnovers, the Spurs survived to take a 2-1 series lead. Much has been written about the Spurs defense the past two games. San Antonio held the Rockets to under 100 points in back to back games, and that was the first time this year the Rockets failed to reach the century mark in two consecutive games. The Spurs also just held Houston to two of its three lowest-scoring games (of the 90 games it has played) this season. But before one gives ALL the credit to San Antonio, one needs to look further into the data. And one of the primary reasons for Houston's demise in Game 3 was its inability to convert open looks into points. Indeed, the Rockets were a miserable 6-for-35 on uncontested looks in Game 3. Part of that, of course is defense, as the Spurs' defensive strategy was geared toward getting the Rockets to take shots that wouldn't be their first option. But a large part of Houston missing 82.8% of its uncontested looks was just random bad luck. And I'm willing to bet that Houston will convert a much higher rate of its uncontested looks this evening. The Spurs are also a poor 1-9-1 ATS since 2004 when leading 2 games to 1 in a playoff series vs. teams seeded #3 or better. Take Houston minus the points. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-17 | Celtics +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-121 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Washington. The Wizards blew out Boston on Thursday, 116-89. But we'll back the Celtics to upset Washington on Sunday, as #1-seeded teams are a sensational 21-4 ATS as underdogs off a double-digit playoff loss to foes seeded #3 or worse. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 0-8 SU/ATS vs. Boston in the last 8 meetings where the pointspread was between 2 and 5 points. And NBA teams are 65.3% ATS on the road off Playoff losses by 22+ points. Take Boston. NBA Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Golden State. The Warriors have had their way with most teams over the past several years. But Utah's been competitive, and is 10-9 ATS the last 19 meetings, including 5-3 ATS at home. It's true that Golden State hasn't lost yet this post-season. And that it's won five of its six games by 11+ points. Unfortunately for the Warriors, .587 (or better) teams are an awesome 22-0 ATS in the Playoffs since 1991, if they are matched up against .753 (or better) foes off back to back wins by more than 10 points, and our 'play-on' team (here, Utah) is not facing elimination. Take Utah. NBA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs. We played on San Antone in Game 2, and the Spurs rewarded us with a 121-96 victory. However, the Silver and Black suffered a massive blow when Tony Parker's quadriceps tendon ruptured late in the game to end his season. It's true that Gregg Popovich is the league's best coach. But one negative situation for the Spurs in the Playoffs is how they perform as underdogs off 20-point (or better) blowout wins. They've covered just 22% in this role since 2000. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 215 | Top | 103-92 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston/San Antonio game to go 'under' the total. The Spurs tightened up their defense in Game 2, and held the high-octane Rockets to just 96 points (Houston scored less than 96 points just once in its 89 games this season). That bodes very well for a relatively low-scoring game tonight. Additionally, the Spurs will be without their floor leader (and 2nd leading scorer in these playoffs), Tony Parker, who sustained a season-ending injury in Game 2. Finally, eight of the last nine meetings between these teams in Houston have gone 'under' the total, including all four the past two seasons. Take the 'under.' NBA Total of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +3 | Top | 115-94 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Cleveland. Cleveland comes into tonight's game with a 2-0 series lead, and has done it with back to back blowout wins. Unfortunately for LeBron James & Co., teams up exactly 2 games in a playoff series have covered just 35% of the time if they won each of their two previous games by more than 10 points. Take Toronto + the points. |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 214.5 | Top | 115-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto/Cleveland game. The Cavaliers scored 116 and 125 points in their two home wins to commence this series. And both games went 'over' the total. But the Cavaliers have generally gone 'over' the total in their home playoff games of late, and 'under' the total in their road playoff games. Indeed, Cleveland's gone 16-8-1 'under' the total their last 25 road playoff games, including 11-2-1 'under' if the line was 199+ points (compared to a 22-11-1 'over' run at home). Take the 'under' in the Raptors/Cavaliers game. |
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05-04-17 | Jazz +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Golden State. The Warriors won Game 1, as expected, by double-digits. And they've yet to lose in the Playoffs. But this Game 2 will be closer than most expect. Indeed, home favorites of -12 or more points have covered just 26% of the time the past 28 years if they're off a Playoff win, and are not trailing in their series. Meanwhile, Utah's a solid 79% since May 9, 1991 as underdogs of more than 8 points in the Playoffs. Finally, #1-seeded teams are a horrid 39-68 ATS as favorites in Game 2 of a series off a win in Game 1. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 38 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Boston. The Celtics held serve at home, and now lead this Best-of-Seven series 2 games to none. But we'll go against the Celtics, as they scored more than 115 points in each of their two previous games. And teams off a Playoff win, in which they scored 116 or more points, are an awful 32% ATS since 1991 if they also scored 116 points two games back, including 0-8-1 ATS the past two seasons. Take Washington. |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 219.5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 38 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Boston/Washington game. The Celtics won Game 2 by a score of 129-119, and also scored over 120 points to win the opening game of this series. So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Over in this Game 3 tonight. But I wouldn't do that, if I were you. Consider that, over the past 28 years, teams that scored 129+ in a Playoff victory have gone 'under' in their next game 75% of the time if the over/under line was greater than 218 points. Moreover, the Celtics have gone 'under' in seven straight road Playoff games, and 10 of their last 11 in the Post-Season since 2013. Take the 'under.' |
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05-03-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5 | Top | 96-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Houston. The Spurs were blasted in Game 1, and lost by 27 points, as a 6-point favorite. And it wasn't even that close. The Rockets could have won by 40 had they not called off the dogs. But it's a new day, and a new game, and we'll back the Silver and Black tonight. Since 1991, in the NBA Playoffs, road underdogs of +3 or more points are a miserable 66-120 ATS off a win, if they're matched up against a .600 (or better) foe off a double-digit loss. And NBA teams that failed to cover by 33+ points are 90% ATS in the Playoffs since 1991 when the line has been less than 9 points. Take San Antonio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors -13.5 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Utah. The Warriors won their first series 4 games to none vs. Portland, and I've been predicting since the preseason that the Warriors would go 16-0 in these Playoffs. Tonight is Game 1 vs. Utah, and the Warriors will have the distinct advantage of playing this series with seven days off since their last game. And that's a big advantage, as teams off 4-0 series sweeps have covered 73% of the time the past 26 years in Game 1 vs. foes off a series which went the distance. Utah did win the last regular season meeting between these teams, but it's still just 2-13 vs. the Warriors the past four seasons (6-9 ATS). And the Warriors are a super 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. .428 (or better) teams. Take Golden State. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Houston. A lot will be made of the MVP Runner-up match-up between Kahwi Leonard and James Harden. But this is also a series which pits two long-time coaching rivals, Gregg Popovich and Mike D'Antoni. And coach Popovich has dominated their 4 playoff series match-ups, as his Spurs have gone 16-4 SU and 13-5-2 ATS vs. D'Antoni's teams. And this dominance has occurred even though D'Antoni's teams were the higher seed in two of the four series. The Spurs won all four Game 1s in those series (including two outright upset wins), and were 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in Games 1, 2 and 3 combined! That doesn't bode well for Houston tonight. Certainly, one of Popovich's greatest strengths is his ability to game-plan. And that is best evident in his team's success in the opening game of a Playoff series. The Spurs are currently on a 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS run over the past six years in the first game of a series. And, in the 2nd round of the Playoffs, since 1998, the Spurs are 11-4 SU/ATS in the first game of a series, including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS when priced from -4.5 to -8.5 points. It's true that the Spurs franchise has never defeated the Rockets franchise in the post-season. Indeed, the Spurs have had more futility against the Rockets (0 wins in three post-season series) than against the other five franchises they've faced in the Playoffs, but never defeated. However, the Spurs have never faced the Rockets in the Gregg Popovich Era, so this will be a great opportunity for the Spurs to finally notch a post-season series win vs. their Texas rival. San Antonio also falls into a super 66-26 ATS Playoff system of mine. Take the Spurs minus the points to win Game 1. NBA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-30-17 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 192.5 | Top | 104-91 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
AT 3:30 PM, our selection is on the Jazz/Clippers 'under.'Â Analysis to follow. |
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04-28-17 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 193 | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the LA Clippers/Utah Jazz game. These two clubs have been two of the better defensive teams over the past two seasons. The Jazz finished with the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating this season (behind the Spurs and Warriors), while the Clippers were 12th. Last season, both teams finished in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency (Clippers #6; Jazz #7). Not surprisingly, most of the Jazz games have gone 'under' the total when the line was 190+ points (78-55-2 'under'). Moreover, the Jazz have played seven of their last nine playoff games 'under' the total, while the Ciippers' last 12 Playoff games have gone 'under' eight times. Finally, tonight's Jazz/Clippers game falls into a 77-37 Totals system of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-17 | Clippers +6 v. Jazz | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clips were upset in Game 5 by the Jazz and now trail 3 games to 2. But road dogs of +2.5 or more points, off an upset loss in Game 5, are 8-0 ATS in Game 6 if they trail in the series, and their opponent's win percentage is .667 or worse. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 204 | Top | 105-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Celtics and Bulls to go 'under' the total. Seven of the nine meetings between these clubs have gone 'under' the total. Additionally, Boston's been playing predominantly low-scoring games of late, as it's gone 'under' 12-3-1 its last 16 games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have gone 'under' 23-10 at home their last 33 games. Finally, dating back to 2009, the Celts have played nine straight Playoff Game 6s 'under' the total, while the Bulls have gone 'under' in Game 6 a whopping 79% of the time since May 29, 1992 (15 'unders' and 4 'overs'). Take the 'under.' |
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04-28-17 | Wizards v. Hawks UNDER 210 | Top | 115-99 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards 'under' the total. These two Southeast Division rivals have gone 'under' the total in six of the last eight meetings, and I foresee another relatively low-scoring game tonight. Indeed, Game 6 of a Playoff series between division rivals have gone 'under' 65.1% since 1991. And the Hawks have gone 'under' 10 straight times when playing a Game 6 in the Playoffs. Finally, the 'under' falls into a 188-130 Totals System of mine. Take the 'under.' |
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04-28-17 | Wizards +3 v. Hawks | Top | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over Atlanta. The home team has won all five games in this series, but road teams are 9-0 SU/ATS their last nine in the Playoffs in Game 6 if the home teams had won the first 5 games of the Playoff series. Take the points with Washington. |
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