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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-19-16 | Rangers -135 v. Rays | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Friday night. Texas is back on track after slumping in July as the Rangers have won 14 of their last 20 games, including a three-game sweep of Oakland this week. Cole Hamels is 12-4 with a 2.88 ERA and hasn't allowed more than three runs his last six starts, although he had an unusual outing on Saturday when he gave up 14 hits but just two runs in a 2-0 loss to Detroit. That was the first time he allowed more than six hits his last seven appearances. Hamels is 8-2 with a 1.97 ERA and .209 opponent batting average on the road this season. Matt Andriese gave up six runs and eight hits, including four home runs, in five innings at Yankee Stadium on Saturday. Tampa Bay has lost Andriese's last four starts and the Rays have lost four of their last five against left-handed starters. Texas has won the last four meetings with the Rays and we're betting they'll make it five straight. I'm backing the Texas Rangers, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-18-16 | Mariners +106 v. Angels | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Mariners on Thursday night. Seattle has won eight of Hisashi Iwakuma's last nine starts and he has given up just three runs with 17 strikeouts his last 19 2/3 innings. Iwakuma allowed two runs in eight innings in one appearance at Angel Stadium this season. Los Angeles is languishing in last place having lost 12 of its last 13 games after last night's 4-3 loss when the Angels stranded runners on second and third in the bottom of the ninth. One has to wonder how long Mike Scioscia can survive as Angels manager. Seattle has won 10 of its last 12 overall 15 of Iwakuma's last 21 road starts. Matt Shoemaker is 6-13 and the Angels have lost four of his last five starts, including a 5-1 loss at Cleveland on Saturday in which he allowed five runs and 12 hits in six innings. Shoemaker has made two appearances against the Mariners this year and has allowed 10 runs and 13 hits in 10 innings. I'm backing the Mariners, my Situational Slam on Thursday. Please note: the 20-2 spots including Seattle's 8-1 mark with Iwakuma and the Angels 1-12 slide. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-17-16 | Marlins v. Reds -119 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
I'm backing the Cincinnati Reds for the second straight night. Cincinnati beat the Marlins 6-3 on Tuesday and now the Reds face Andrew Cashner, who has been roughed up his last two starts allowing seven runs and eight hits in five innings at Colorado and then four runs and nine hits with five walks in five innings against the White Sox. Cashner is 0-5 with a 7.03 ERA on the road and he has a 9.58 ERA in August. The last three seasons at Great American Ball Park, Cashner has given up 13 runs and 22 hits in 17 2/3 innings. Homer Bailey had his best performance since returning from Tommy John surgery as he pitched six shutout innings while giving up only three hits at Milwaukee on Friday. What is more impressive is that he struck out 11 batters while walking only one. Bailey has a .208 opponent batting average against Miami the last three years and the Marlins have lost five of their last six road games against right-handed starters. I'm backing the Cincinnati Reds, my Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-16-16 | Pirates +108 v. Giants | 4-3 | Win | 108 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Pirates on Tuesday night. San Francisco lost again last night and continues to struggle with a 9-19 record since the All-Star break. Jameson Taillon is 3-2 with a 2.85 ERA and Pittsburgh has won six of his last seven starts, including 4-0 against San Diego on Thursday when he pitched eight shutout innings and allowed only three hits. Taillon has allowed just seven runs in 24 innings on the road. The Giants will be facing him for the first time. Jeff Samardzija got through five innings at Miami without allowing a run on Wednesday, but that was his first decent start since early July. The Giants have lost four of his last five starts and in the four previous games before the win against the Marlins, Samardzija gave up 19 runs (18 earned) in just 23 2/3 innings. Samardzija has given up six runs and six hits in three innings against Pittsburgh this season. The Pirates have won six of the last seven meetings in San Francisco. I'm backing the Pittsburgh Pirates, my Tuesday night Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-16-16 | Marlins v. Reds -133 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
I'm backing the Reds on Tuesday. Anthony DeSclafani is 6-1 overall and 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA at home. The right-hander has made 12 starts this season and just twice has allowed more than three runs. The Reds have given him poor run support his last three outings as all three were low-scoring one-run games. However, Cincinnati hitters should have an easier time scoring runs against Jose Urena, who has a 6.69 ERA and making just his fourth start of the year. Urena was touched for eight runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings against St. Louis in his last appearance on July 29 and he has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) and 20 hits in 18 2/3 innings on the road. He was demoted to Triple-A after his meltdown against the Cardinals. Miami has lost seven of Urena's last eight starts dating to last season and Cincinnati has won DeSclafani's last four home starts. I'm backing the Reds, my Pitching Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-15-16 | Mets +110 v. Diamondbacks | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm backing the NY Mets on Monday night. Both teams had to travel from the East Coast, however, New York is coming off two wins while Arizona was humiliated in a three-game sweep by Boston which culminated in a 16-2 loss on Sunday (we had Boston). The ageless Bartolo Colon had two more quality starts his last two appearances, including a 3-2 Mets loss to the Diamondbacks when he allowed just one run in seven innings. Colon is 10-6 with a 3.35 ERA overall and 6-3 and 3.22 on the road. Robbie Ray has been inconsistent all season as he shutout the Mets in seven innings his last time out but allowed 17 runs (13 earned) his previous three starts. Ray is 5-11 overall and 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA at home and the Diamondbacks have lost seven of his last nine starts. Arizona has the second-worst home record in baseball and it has lost 17 of its last 26 home games against right-handed starters and five straight at home against teams with a winning record. I'm backing the NY Mets, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-15-16 | Marlins -128 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
I'm backing the Miami Marlins on Monday night. Miami suffered a huge loss as Giancarlo Stanton is out for the season with a severe groin pull, but the Marlins still have a talented outfield with Ichiro Suzuki filling in for Stanton. Miami has won the last five meetings with Cincinnati, including a three-game sweep in July. David Phelps made his second start of the season in a 1-0 loss against San Francisco when he allowed just the one run and four hits in five innings. Brandon Finnegan gave up three runs and six hits in six innings his last outing at St. Louis, but he had control problems again walking six batters. Finnegan is 7-8 with a 4.45 ERA and the Marlins average 5.5 runs per game against left-handers in road night games. The Reds have lost seven of Finnegan's last 10 home starts and Miami has won four of its last five against southpaw starters. I'm backing the Marlins, my Mismatch release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-14-16 | Pirates +141 v. Dodgers | Top | 11-3 | Win | 141 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
I'm backing the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. Chad Kuhl made his major league debut against the Dodgers on June 26 and the Pirates won 4-3 as he allowed three runs and four hits in five innings. Pittsburgh has won all five of Kuhl's starts, including 6-4 against San Diego on Tuesday when the right-hander gave up two runs in six innings. Kuhl was 6-3 with a 2.37 ERA in 16 starts for Indianapolis this season as he has alternated between the majors and minor leagues. Brett Anderson will make his first start of the season following back surgery and he allowed two runs and six hits in his final rehab assignment on Monday. The Pirates have won six straight against left-handed starters and they have won 12 of their last 17 road games versus southpaw starters. Take the Pirates. I'm grabbing the underdog Pirates, my DogPound release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-14-16 | Diamondbacks v. Red Sox -152 | 2-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm laying the price with the Red Sox on Sunday.  Zack Greinke is 11-3 with a 3.67 ERA but Rick Porcello can match that and more as he is 15-3 with a 3.40 ERA overall this season, including 11-0 at home and Boston has won nine of his last 10 starts overall.  Porcello is 6-0 in day games and he comes off  a 5-3 win at Yankee Stadium when he allowed two runs and seven hits in eight innings. The Red Sox are second in the major leagues with a home OPS of .858 and also second with an .812 OPS in day games.  Greinke has pitched once since coming off the disabled list and gave up three runs in five innings against the Mets.  However, Arizona is mired in last place in the NL West while Boston is two games out of first in the AL East.  Obviously, Porcello has the much better supporting cast and Boston won the first two games of the series rather handily.  Finally, the D-Backs are 1-9 in their last 10 IL games against right-handers.  I'm backing Boston, my Heavy Hitter. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-13-16 | Mariners -122 v. A's | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
I'm backing Seattle on Saturday night. Hisashi Iwakuma is 13-7 with a 3.79 ERA and has not allowed a run his last 14 1/3 innings and five of his last six outings have been quality starts. Iwakuma struck out 15 and walked only one batter in wins over Boston and Detroit and Seattle has won seven of his last eight starts. The right-hander is 2-0 against Oakland this year while giving up four runs in 14 innings. He's 5-3 with a .238 opponent batting average at O.co Coliseum the last three years. Kendall Graveman won against Baltimore on Monday, but gave up 10 runs (nine earned) in 10 1/3 innings his previous two starts. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are a combined 10-for-17 against Graveman and he's allowed six runs and 17 hits in 10 2/3 innings against Seattle this season. I'm backing the Mariners, my Saturday Slam. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-12-16 | Rays -122 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -122 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm backing the TB Rays on Friday night. It took half a season, but Chris Archer finally has put together some good performances with four quality starts in a row. Archer has allowed only seven earned runs with 32 strikeouts his last 26 1/3 innings and he is 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA and .199 opponent batting average at Yankee Stadium the last three years. C.C. Sabathia has given up at least four runs in seven of his last nine starts which has resulted in a 1-5 record and 6.62 ERA in that time. Sabathia is 1-6 at home and he allowed three runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings in one appearance against Tampa Bay this season. The Yankees have lost six of their last seven games against losing teams and the Rays are averaging 4.9 runs per game versus left-handers in road night games. Look for Tampa Bay to spoil A-Rod's last game. I'm backing the Rays, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-11-16 | Rockies +131 v. Rangers | Top | 12-9 | Win | 131 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
I'm backing the underdog Colorado Rockies on Thursday afternoon. Chad Bettis has recovered from a terrible first three months of the season to become a decent pitcher and Colorado has won nine of his last 11 starts. Bettis has not given up more than three runs his last six outings and has pitched at least six innings in each of them. Lucas Harrell will make his third start for Texas since being acquired from Atlanta and although the Rangers won his last game, Harrell allowed five hits and walked five in only 3 2/3 innings. Colorado hitters have a combined .340 batting average against the right-hander and a 1.003 OPS. The Rangers were installed as a decent-sized favorite in this matchup, however, looking at the pitching matchup there is great value with the road underdog. Besides the 9-2 mark mentioned above, the Rockies are 11-5 in their last 16 against right-handed starters. I'm backing Colorado, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-10-16 | White Sox -104 v. Royals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
I'm backing the White Sox on Wednesday night. Chicago looks to make it two straight over the Royals after a 7-5 win in 10 innings last night which put the White Sox a game ahead of the defending champions in the AL Central. The White Sox have won five of Jose Quintana's last six starts and four of his last five road starts, including 6-3 at Detroit on Thursday. Quintana is 9-8 with a 2.93 ERA this season and he was 3-0 and 1.95 in July. Meanwhile, Kansas City has lost Ian Kennedy's last seven starts and the Royals have lost eight in a row against left-handed starters. Kennedy gave up no runs and one hit in six innings at Tampa Bay his last outing, however, he walked four batters and I expect trouble for the righty tonight. White Sox hitters have a combined .856 OPS versus Kennedy, who gave up seven runs and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings in one appearance against Chicago this year. I'm backing the White Sox, my Mid-Week Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-10-16 | Indians v. Nationals -128 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Nationals on Wednesday. Cleveland managed to beat Max Scherzer on Tuesday but the Indians still have lost five of their last eight games and Josh Tomlin comes off a terrible start when he allowed seven runs and nine hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees. Tomlin has lost three of his last five starts and in those three losses he gave up a total 19 runs (16 earned) in 15 1/3 innings. Gio Gonzalez has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts, including a 5-1 win over San Francisco on Friday after posting a 2.70 ERA in July. Gonzalez has faced the Indians once this season and allowed two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings and Cleveland batters have a combined .216 batting average against him. Cleveland is 1-7 in their last eight IL games against teams with a winning record, while the Nats enter on a 10-4 IL run. I'm backing the Nationals on Wednesday, my Daytime Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-09-16 | Giants v. Marlins -105 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
I'm backing the Miami Marlins on Tuesday. San Francisco came from behind to beat the Marlins 8-7 in 14 innings last night as Brandon Crawford banged out seven hits, including the go-ahead single in the top of the 14th that proved to be the game-winner. Miami looks to bounce back as newly-acquired Matt Moore takes the mound for the Giants tonight after issuing six walks in six innings in a 3-2 win at Philadelphia. Moore has a 7.36 career ERA at Marlins Park allowing 15 hits in 11 innings and Miami is sixth in the majors with a .273 batting average against left-handers. Tim Koehler is coming off three quality starts in a row while giving up just two earned runs with 17 strikeouts in 20 innings. The Marlins have won six of their last seven games against southpaw starters and the Giants have lost 11 of their last 15 road games and 15 of their last 22 overall. Bounce back time for Miami. I'm backing the Marlins, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-08-16 | Astros -138 v. Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -138 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
I'm backing the Astros on Monday night. Houston lost 5-3 in 11 innings to Texas on Sunday but the Astros have a good opportunity to get back on track against Tyler Duffey and the Twins. Duffey is 6-8 with a 6.21 ERA and has allowed an astonishing 43 runs (41 earned) and 66 hits his last 10 starts in 46 2/3 innings. He has been the recipient of tremendous run support, including four games when Minnesota scored a total of 54 runs. Duffey's home ERA is 7.96 and he's 2-6 and 9.40 in night games. Meanwhile, except for an inexplicable meltdown in Detroit, Collin McHugh has not given up more than three earned runs in his other eight starts since June 15. The Astros have won nine of McHugh's last 13 starts and Houston has won 23 of its last 31 against teams with losing records. Minnesota has lost 24 of 32 home games against right-handed starters. I'm backing the Astros, my Mismatch on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-07-16 | Marlins v. Rockies -119 | 10-7 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Colorado Rockies on Sunday. We cashed with the Rockies last night and we're on them again this afternoon. Colorado has won eight of its last 11 games and Jon Gray, who has not allowed more than three earned runs his last six starts, takes the mound on Sunday. The Rockies have won Gray's last three starts and the game before that was a 1-0 loss. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 3.77 ERA overall, including 5-0 and 3.83 at home. Adam Conley has had control problems his last two starts walking six batters in 10 2/3 innings. Conley will be making his first appearance at Coors Field where the Rockies lead the majors with an .892 OPS and Colorado is seventh in the big leagues overall with a .778 OPS against left-handers. Miami has lost five of its last six road games against right-handed starters. We'll back the Rockies, my Pitching Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-07-16 | Angels v. Mariners -120 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Mariners on Sunday. James Paxton had some rough outings earlier this season but now he has put together three decent starts in a row, including allowing one run and four hits in eight innings against Boston on Monday, although Seattle wound up losing 2-1. Paxton struck out 21 while walking just two batters in the three appearances and he's facing the Angels, who have a team .195 batting average against him in 77 at-bats. Matt Shoemaker is 3-7 with a 5.00 ERA on the road and the Mariners already have touched him for seven runs (six earned) and six hits in three innings this season. Paxton has a 2.65 ERA against the Angels in six career starts. Los Angeles has lost six of Shoemaker's last seven road starts and the Mariners have won eight of their last 10 home games against right-handed starters. I'm backing the Seattle Mariners, my Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-06-16 | Brewers +117 v. Diamondbacks | 15-6 | Win | 117 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Brewers on Saturday. Patrick Corbin has been nothing short of disastrous his last seven starts and it says something about the Arizona pitching staff that he's still in the rotation. The Diamondbacks are mired in last place and they have lost Corbin's last five starts by a combined score of 52-20. Corbin is 0-7 with a 6.91 ERA at home and he allowed four runs and six hits in five innings against Milwaukee this season. The Brewers have won Matt Garza's last two starts as he finally seems to have turned it around after starting the season on the disabled list. Garza gave up four earned runs in 11 innings in the two wins while walking three. Milwaukee has won its last four games against left-handed starters and the Diamondbacks have lost 38 of their last 54 home games, including 16 of Corbin's last 21 home starts. I'm backing the Brewers, my Saturday Shocker. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-06-16 | Marlins v. Rockies -110 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
I'm backing the Colorado Rockies on Saturday. Miami beat the Rockies 5-3 last night with four runs in the top of the ninth after getting swept by the Cubs, but Colorado has the advantage in this matchup as recently-acquired Andrew Cashner has not had much luck in road games where he is 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA. Cashner has a 6.94 ERA at Coors Field in his career and Colorado hitters have a combined .810 OPS against him. The Rockies lead the majors with an .895 home OPS and are tied for first with a .302 batting average at home. Chad Bettis got off to a bad start this season, but now he has five quality starts in a row and the Rockies have won four of them. Also, Colorado has won Bettis' last five home starts. The right-hander was 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA in July and has allowed only 11 earned runs his last 32 innings. Colorado has won 11 of its last 15 games overall and we're backing them here. I'm playing the Rockies, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-05-16 | Mets v. Tigers -114 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
I'm backing the Detroit Tigers on Friday. Detroit had its eight-game winning streak snapped yesterday when Jordan Zimmermann showed he obviously wasn't ready after coming off the disabled list, but the Tigers still are 31-20 at home this season and an incredible 86-35 their last 121 interleague home games, and 26-9 in Justin Verlander's last 35 interleague starts. Verlander has had six good outings in a row, including a complete-game 3-2 win against Houston on Saturday when he allowed just two runs and five hits with 11 strikeouts. He threw 116 pitches but he gets an extra day of rest due to an off day on Monday. Verlander was 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in July. Noah Syndergaard has thrown 232 pitches in only 12 innings his last two starts and he is pitching with regular rest. The Mets have lost seven of their last 11 games and 11 of their last 16 interleague road games. I'm backing the Tigers as they look to make it eight straight wins against teams with a winning record. Detroit is my Friday night Knockout. Please note: The 19-1 spots include Verlander's 4-0 July record, Detroit's 8-1 overall run, and their 7-0 run against winning teams. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-03-16 | Rangers +100 v. Orioles | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Wednesday. Cole Hamels is 12-2 with a 2.84 ERA overall and 8-1 and 1.71 ERA on the road. Texas has won nine of his last 10 starts and he has allowed just two earned runs his last three outings with 23 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. Baltimore is 25th in the majors with a .699 OPS against left-handers. Kevin Gausman is 2-8 and was clobbered his last game giving up six runs and six hits in three innings in a 6-5 loss at Toronto. The Rangers scored four runs with nine hits in five innings against Gausman earlier this season. Texas has won 27 of Hamels' last 33 starts dating to last season and the Rangers have won seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams. We're getting good value with Hamels due to the Orioles' home record, but Baltimore is 2-5 in Gausman's last seven home starts against winning teams. The Rangers are my Value Beatdown! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-03-16 | Brewers -138 v. Padres | 3-12 | Loss | -138 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Brewers for the second straight day. Junior Guerra continues to be one of the best pitchers in the National League without much fanfare as he is 7-2 with a 2.70 ERA. In fact, the Brewers are on a 6-0 run when he starts against teams with a losing record. Guerra gave up one run and four hits in 8 2/3 innings his last start against Pittsburgh and he pitched well his previous three starts. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA on the road and already has pitched six shutout innings against San Diego this season. The Padres are 26th in the major leagues with a .696 OPS at home and they have won just three of 11 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP below 1.15. Edwin Jackson is with his 11th team after being traded by Miami and he gave up six runs and 10 hits in five innings in a 6-0 loss against Cincinnati on Friday. Milwaukee hitters have a combined 1.038 OPS against Jackson and he has allowed nine runs in 11 1/3 innings at Petco Park this season. I'm backing the Brewers, my Diamond Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-02-16 | Brewers -120 v. Padres | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday. Zach Davies is quietly becoming one of the better pitchers in the National League with an 8-4 record and 3.59 ERA and four quality starts in a row. Davies has allowed only five earned runs his last 26 1/3 innings and Milwaukee has won eight of his last 11 starts. The right-hander was 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in July and gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings against San Diego in one appearance this year. Meanwhile, Luis Perdomo has a 6.89 ERA and has been blessed by good run support, but he has a 9.00 ERA at home while allowing 26 runs and 46 hits in 26 innings. The Brewers have won four of their last five games and the Padres have lost nine of their last 14 games. I'm backing the Brewers, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-02-16 | Blue Jays v. Astros -153 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -153 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Tuesday night. R.A. Dickey's knuckleball has not been effective lately as Toronto has lost his last three starts by a combined score of 27-13. Dickey has been pummeled to the tune of 18 runs (17 earned) and 16 hits his last 14 2/3 innings. Also, Dickey hasn't fooled Houston hitters who have a combined .337 batting average against him and an .895 OPS. Last year in one appearance at Minute Maid Park, Dickey allowed seven runs and 10 hits in five innings. Lance McCullers has pitched well in six of his last seven starts, including his last two outings against the Angels and Yankees when he gave up just two runs in 14 innings with 20 strikeouts. Toronto hitters will be seeing McCullers for the first time. The Blue Jays have lost 15 of Dickey's last 21 starts and Houston has won 23 of its last 31 home games. I'm backing the Houston Astros, my Heavy Hitter on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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08-01-16 | Red Sox +121 v. Mariners | Top | 2-1 | Win | 121 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
I'm backing the Red Sox on Monday. This is a tough spot for the Seattle Mariners after Sunday night's bizarre and heartbreaking loss as they travel home to face Boston, which has the opposite feeling after coming from behind with five runs in the ninth to beat the Angels. Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched well since returning from the minors although he hasn't gotten much run support. Rodriguez has allowed six runs his last three starts in 17 2/3 innings and the Mariners will be seeing him for the first time. Seattle has lost nine of James Paxton's last 12 starts and he allowed three runs and six hits in five innings his last outing at Pittsburgh. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA at home and the Red Sox have won five of their last six against left-handed starters. I'm backing Boston, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-31-16 | Nationals -122 v. Giants | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -122 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
I'm backing the Washington Nationals on Sunday. Washington won the first two games of the four game series and the Nationals have an excellent chance to win the finale with Gio Gonzalez. Matt Cain has not looked good his last two outings allowing nine runs and 12 hits, including five home runs, in just 7 2/3 innings. Cain has a 5.19 ERA at home this season and Washington hitters have a combined .895 OPS against him. Gonzalez has given up just eight earned runs his last four starts in 24 innings as he appears to have recovered from a terrible first three months of the season. San Francisco has lost 11 of their last 15 games overall and the Giants are 17-37 in Cain's last 54 starts dating to the last two seasons. They're also just 1-6 the last seven times he's thrown on four days rest. Washington is favored on the road for a reason, yet we still feel it's a short enough price to jump on board. I'm backing the Nationals my Tapout Game of the Month. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-31-16 | Yankees v. Rays -103 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Rays on Sunday. Tampa Bay looks to sweep the series against the Yankees after Saturday's 5-1 win. Blake Snell has pitched much better than his 2-4 record indicates as he has a 3.05 ERA and has allowed just seven runs his last four starts in 24 innings. Also in those four games, the left-hander gave up just one home run with 24 strikeouts. Snell allowed one run and two hits in five innings against New York earlier this season. Michael Pineda comes off two good outings, however, he is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA on turf this year and Pineda is 0-2 against the Rays while being touched for 13 runs and 19 hits in only 8 2/3 innings. The Yankees have lost 13 of their last 19 road games against left-handed starters. I'm backing the Rays, my Daytime Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-30-16 | Reds -124 v. Padres | 1-2 | Loss | -124 | 16 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday. Cincinnati has won eight of its last 11 games and Anthony DeSclafani has won his last four starts and six of his last seven, which included six quality starts. The right-hander is 6-0 with a 3.09 ERA and he already has thrown eight shutout innings against San Diego this season. The Padres are 24th in the majors with a home OPS of .702 and have lost eight of their last 11 home games. Christian Friedrich is 4-6 with a 5.00 ERA and has given up 33 runs (30 earned) his last 34 1/3 innings and didn't make it to the fourth inning in San Diego's 10-6 win at Washington on Sunday after allowing five runs and six hits. Friedrich had lost his previous four starts. Look for Cincy to make it two straight over the Padres. I'm backing the Reds, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-30-16 | Astros v. Tigers -129 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
I'm backing the Tigers on Saturday night. Detroit has been streaky all season and now the Tigers are hot again winning their fourth in a row last night 14-6 over the Astros. Justin Verlander has not allowed more than two earned runs his last five starts in 33 2/3 innings. Houston hitters have a combined .188 batting average against Verlander and the Tigers have won five of his last seven home starts. Also, Detroit has won 22 of its last 32 home games. Mike Fiers is 7-4 with a 4.69 ERA and has been getting great run support, including a 13-3 win against the Angels on Sunday. However, Fiers has given up 13 runs and 19 hits his last 14 innings and he has a 6.75 ERA on the road and 5.85 in July. In one appearance against Detroit this season, Fiers allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings and Houston has lost six of his last eight road starts. I'm backing the Tigers, my Pitching Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-29-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
I'm backing the Blue Jays on Friday. Baltimore is 37-16 at home but only 21-26 on the road and tonight the Orioles face Marco Estrada, who has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last 10 starts. Estrada lost a tough 2-1 decision against Seattle last Friday, but Toronto has won seven of his last 10 starts, which included a stint on the disabled list. The right-hander has a 2.50 ERA at home and Baltimore hitters have a collective .189 batting average against him. Kevin Gausman threw seven shutout innings in a 5-2 win over Cleveland on Saturday, but Gausman is 0-6 with a 4.94 ERA on the road this season and the Orioles have lost 17 of Gausman's last 22 road starts dating to last season. Toronto has won 14 of its last 20 games overall and 50 of its last 73 home games against right-handed starters. I'm backing the Blue Jays, my Mismatch release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-28-16 | Nationals v. Giants -134 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -134 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
I'm backing the SF Giants on Thursday night. Washington is in a tough spot traveling three time zones with no rest after Thursday's 4-1 win at Cleveland and having to face Johnny Cueto, who is 13-2 with a 2.53 ERA and coming off a 2-1 Giants win at Yankee Stadium where he gave up no earned runs and six hits in six innings. San Francisco has won six of his last seven starts and Cueto is 5-1 at home and 10-0 with a 1.90 ERA in night games this season. The Nationals have a team batting average of .192 against Cueto and he pitched nine shutout innings against them in one appearance last year. Tanner Roark gave up five runs in five innings against San Diego his last outing. The Giants have won 14 of Cueto's 16 starts overall and the Nationals have lost their last five games in San Francisco. We'll back the SF Giants, my Thursday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-27-16 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -132 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -132 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
I'm backing the Brewers on Wednesday night. Arizona lost again last night and solidified its last-place status in the NL West and now the Diamondbacks have lost 20 of their last 27 games. Archie Bradley is 3-6 with a 4.44 ERA and although he hasn't pitched terribly, the Diamondbacks have lost seven of his last 10 starts. Bradley allowed three runs and five hits with five walks in five innings at Cincinnati on Friday in a 6-2 loss. Control has been an issue with Bradley, who has walked 18 batters his last 34 innings. Milwaukee goes for its third straight win in the series with Jimmy Nelson, who lost to the Cubs his last outing, but had five decent starts in a row before that game. Nelson has a 2.54 ERA at home and last season allowed four runs in 13 innings against Arizona, which has lost nine of its last 10 road games. I'm backing the Brewers, my Wednesday Wipeout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-27-16 | Tigers +110 v. Red Sox | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Tigers on Wednesday. Detroit's bats came alive last night, including the bottom of the order, in a 9-8 win at Boston. Jarrod Saltalamacchia had three hits and two RBIs as the Tigers banged out 13 hits. Michael Fulmer gets the call today and he gives the Tigers a good chance for a sweep as he's 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA and Detroit has won 12 of his last 13 starts. Fulmer gave up five runs in a win at the White Sox on Friday, but in his 10 previous starts, he allowed a total of only six earned runs. Also, Fulmer is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in day games. Eduardo Rodriguez is 2-4 with a 6.70 ERA and the Red Sox have lost four of his last five starts. The left-hander is 0-3 with a 6.33 ERA at home and the Sox have lost all four of his home starts. We'll back the Detroit Tigers, my Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-26-16 | Yankees v. Astros -142 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -142 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Tuesday. It appears after two decades of a "win now" attitude, the New York Yankees have decided to rebuild starting with the trade of Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs. C.C. Sabathia, who has had six terrible starts in a row, takes the mound tonight against Doug Fister. Sabathia has allowed 31 runs (29 earned) and 46 hits in his last 35 innings. The Yankees have lost four of his last five starts and he has a 6.85 ERA in July. Meanwhile, Fister comes off a win at Oakland where he pitched seven shutout innings and he is 9-3 since the beginning of May. Houston has won 21 of its last 28 home games and 37 of its last 54 overall and the Astros have won 12 of Fister's last 15 starts. I'm backing the Astros, my Mismatch on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-24-16 | Rangers v. Royals -114 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm backing the KC Royals on Sunday. Kansas City lost to the Rangers last night but the Royals still are 31-16 at home and Texas has lost eight of its last 11 games after snapping a four-game losing streak. Edinson Volquez recovered from a disastrous start against Houston on June 24 and has pitched four decent games in a row, including a 7-3 win over Cleveland on Monday. Volquez has allowed nine runs his last 25 2/3 innings with 18 strikeouts. Kansas City has the third best home batting average in the majors at .289 and the Royals have won 21 of Volquez's last 27 home starts. Texas has lost A.J. Griffin's last two starts by a combined score of 24-10 as he was pounded to the tune of 11 runs and 13 hits in only 10 innings. Griffin's ERA in July is 8.36 and in day games this season his ERA is 5.60. I'm backing the Royals, my Daytime Dominator on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-24-16 | Indians -129 v. Orioles | 3-5 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians on Sunday. Cleveland will try to salvage the last game of the series with Corey Kluber on the mound. Kluber shut out Kansas City on five hits in seven innings his last start on July 18 before leaving with a leg cramp and then the bullpen blew the game. Four of Kluber's last five outings have been quality starts and the right-hander is 3-2 with a 2.91 ERA in July. Also, Kluber has 15 strikeouts his last 16 innings. Vance Worley will make just his third start of the season for Baltimore after allowing three runs and three hits in 4 1/3 innings in a 7-1 loss against the Yankees on Tuesday. Worley has given up 11 runs and 22 hits in 20 1/3 innings in June and July. Cleveland still has won 12 of its last 18 road games and 21 of its last 31 overall. I'm backing the Indians, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-23-16 | Rays v. A's -102 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing the Oakland A's on Saturday night. Drew Smyly continues to get knocked around while still avoiding being a big underdog as the opening line was around even money for Tampa Bay tonight. The Rays have lost his last five starts in which he has given up 30 runs (25 earned), 41 hits and 10 walks in 27 2/3 innings. The left-hander is 2-11 with a 5.64 ERA overall and 2-5 and 6.28 on the road and in danger of losing his spot in the rotation. Meanwhile, Oakland has won Kendall Graveman's last seven starts, including a 7-4 win against Houston on Monday when he allowed just two earned runs in seven innings. Graveman has a 2.91 home ERA and the Rays are 5-21 against right-handed starters. I'm backing the Oakland A's, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-22-16 | Mets v. Marlins -137 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -137 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
I'm backing the Marlins on Friday. The injury-plagued New York Mets have lost six of their last nine games and they're 0-5 in Logan Verrett's last five starts. Verrett has given up seven runs and 12 hits his last 12 2/3 innings with six walks and he has a 4.21 ERA overall. Miami banged out 16 hits last night in a 9-3 win at Philadelphia and the Marlins have won eight of their last 10 games and have climbed to within 4 1/2 games of first-place Washington. Adam Conley is 6-5 with a 3.62 ERA and except for an interleague contest at Detroit, Conley has pitched well his last six starts with the Diamondbacks winning five of them. He's allowed no runs in six innings against the Mets, who have a combined .174 batting average against Conley. Miami has won five home games in a row. I'm backing the Marlins, my Heavy Hitter. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-21-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -124 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -124 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
I'm backing the White Sox on Thursday. Detroit inexplicably gave Mike Pelfrey $16 million for two years even though he has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball the last five seasons. Pelfrey is 2-9 with a 4.95 ERA and 0-6 on the road. The White Sox have owned him in his career and they've already scored six runs with 12 hits in 12 innings against him this year. In his last start, Pelfrey didn't make it out of the second inning when Kansas City pounded out five runs and four hits with four walks. James Shields has finally figured it out after some tough performances with the Padres and White Sox earlier in the season. Shields has had four good starts in a row allowing just six runs in 28 1/3 innings. He didn't get any run support his last two games, but that shouldn't be a problem with Pelfrey on the mound. I'm backing the White Sox, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-21-16 | Marlins v. Phillies -107 | 9-3 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Phillies on Thursday. Philadelphia beat Miami 4-1 last night behind Jeremy Hellickson, who pitched eight strong innings, and the Phillies should get another good performance by Jerad Eickhoff in tonight's matchup. The right-hander has allowed more than three runs just once his last nine starts and that was at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Phillies have won six of his last eight starts, including a 4-2 win over the Mets on Saturday when he gave up only two runs and five hits in six innings. Eickhoff has done his best pitching at home where he has a 2.45 ERA. Tom Koehler has given up 18 runs his last 22 innings and the Marlins have lost four of his last five starts. We'll back the Phillies, my Pitching Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-20-16 | Astros -124 v. A's | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Astros on Wednesday afternoon. Daniel Mengden showed some promise his first few starts, but then things went downhill as he has given up 17 runs (16 earned) and 19 hits his last three outings in just 13 1/3 innings. Oakland won his last start 8-7 over Toronto, however, Mengden didn't make it out of the fourth inning after being knocked around for seven runs and six hits plus three walks. The Athletics have lost five of his seven appearances and he is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA at home. The Astros scored six runs in 4 2/3 innings against Mengden on July 8. Doug Fister has shut down the Athletics this season allowing only three runs in 20 1/3 innings for a 1.31 ERA. Houston has won 11 of Fister's last 14 starts and I'm backing them in this one. I'm playing the Astros, my Mismatch release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-20-16 | Rays v. Rockies -110 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I'm backing the Rockies on Wednesday afternoon. Chris Archer continues to struggle and Tampa Bay now has lost his last seven starts, including 4-3 against Baltimore on Friday when he allowed four runs and seven hits in 7 1/3 innings. Archer is 3-6 with a 6.75 ERA on the road which doesn't bode well for the right-hander heading into a start at Coors Field. Also, Archer's ERA on natural grass is 7.23. Jorge De La Rosa got off to a terrible start this season but he bounced back with a 1.96 ERA in June and 3.15 so far in July. De La Rosa is 27-7 at home since 2013 and Colorado is an incredible 57-17 in his last 74 home starts. De La Rosa also is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in day games this year. Look for the Rays to return to their losing ways. I'm backing the Rockies, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-17-16 | Brewers +110 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Brewers on Sunday. Milwaukee will try to make it two straight over the Reds after Saturday's 9-1 win when the Brewers scored all their runs in the first three innings. Zach Davies had one really bad outing against the Dodgers but otherwise the Brewers have won six of his last eight starts, including a 5-2 win at Washington when he gave up two runs in 6 2/3 innings. Davies got off to a terrible start this season but settled down and recorded a 3.81 ERA in May and 2.89 in June. Dan Straily has been inconsistent and Cincinnati has lost four of his last five starts. In his last five games, Straily has allowed 23 earned runs and 27 hits in 27 innings. The Reds have lost eight of their last 10 home games. I'm backing the Brewers, my DogPound release on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-17-16 | Orioles -120 v. Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
I'm backing the Orioles on Sunday. Tampa Bay keeps losing and the linemakers keep giving us favorable lines with the opponent, which in this case is the Baltimore Orioles as they go for the sweep of the Rays, who are 3-24 their last 27 games. During that time, the Rays have been outscored 162-83 and still they are just a slight underdog in today's game. Jake Odorizzi has allowed 11 runs and 15 hits his last two starts in only 10 1/3 innings. Odorizzi is 0-3 at home this season and has been torched for 10 runs and 24 hits in 16 innings against the Orioles, who are batting .369 against him. Dylan Bundy will make his first major league start after 22 relief appearances and he has been effective with 32 strikeouts in 38 innings while giving up 13 earned runs. He allowed no runs and two hits in three innings against the Rays. Tampa Bay is 29th in the majors with a home batting average of .232. Finally, while the O's are on an 8-0 run within the division, the Rays enter on a 0-5 slide when Odorizzi takes the mound. I'm backing the Orioles, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-16-16 | Indians -132 v. Twins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -132 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
I'm backing the Indians on Saturday. The AL Central leading Cleveland Indians won last night and now have a 27-20 record on the road while Minnesota is dead last and only 19-28 at home. Trevor Bauer had eight good starts in a row before facing the Yankees on July 9 when he allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings. In his eight previous outings, Bauer gave up just 13 earned runs in 55 2/3 innings. Bauer is 5-1 with a 2.57 ERA on the road and Twins hitters have a collective batting average of just .229 against him. Cleveland has won eight of its last nine road games versus right-handed starters and the Twins are 7-19 their last 26 home games against righty starters. Tyler Duffy has been blessed with incredible run support as his team has supplied 48 runs his last four starts but he still has a 5-6 record with a 5.20 ERA. In fact, Duffey has been smacked for 31 earned runs and 50 hits in his last six home starts, spanning 32 1/3 IP. I expect Bauer to limit the Twins' offense and for the Indians to handle Duffey. I'm backing the Cleveland Indians, my Main Event on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-16-16 | Orioles -121 v. Rays | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday. Tampa Bay has won a total of three games in the last month after last night's 4-3 loss to Baltimore for a 3-23 record in that span. The Orioles have won three in a row and in first place in the AL East by two games over Boston. Chris Tillman is 12-2 with a 3.41 ERA and the Orioles have won eight of his last nine starts, including the last two when allowed only two runs and eight hits in 14 innings. Tillman already is 2-0 against the Rays this season and in four games at Tropicana Field last year, he had a 2.39 ERA and a .163 opponent batting average. The Rays have lost 11 of Matt Moore's last 15 starts and Baltimore hitters have had no trouble with him this season scoring eight runs with 10 hits in 13 2/3 innings. Look for the Rays to suffer another loss on Saturday. We'll back the Orioles, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-15-16 | Astros +119 v. Mariners | Top | 7-3 | Win | 119 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Friday night. Houston looks to pick up where it left off before the break as the Astros are on a 31-13 run to climb into the AL West Division race. Doug Fister bounced back from a couple of rough outings to pitch eight innings in a 3-1 loss to Oakland when he allowed just two runs and three hits. Fister is 5-3 with a 3.21 ERA on the road. He's also 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA against the Mariners in his career. Seattle has lost six of James Paxton's eight starts and he has allowed nine runs (eight earned) and 17 hits in 10 2/3 innings his last two home games. Houston has won seven of its last eight road contests and 17 of its last 22 division games. Seattle has lost 13 of its last 16 versus AL West teams. Those last three situations add up to 37-9 play-on spots. I'm backing the Houston Astros, my Value Beatdown on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-10-16 | Nationals v. Mets -118 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
I'm backing the Mets on Sunday. Steven Matz is 7-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 5-1 with a 1.51 in day games in his career. In one appearance against Washington this season, Matz allowed no runs and four hits in eight innings. The left-hander gave up just two runs and six hits in seven innings his last start against Miami before the bullpen blew the game. Gio Gonzalez is 4-8 and in his last appearance against the Mets on May 23, he gave up seven runs and 10 hits in just five innings. In his last four outings overall, Gonzalez has allowed 19 runs and 27 hits in 20 1/3 innings. The Nationals are 1-8 in Gonzalez's last nine starts and the Mets have won seven of their last 10 games overall. I'm backing the Mets, my KO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-09-16 | Angels +124 v. Orioles | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm backing the underdog Angels on Saturday. The Los Angeles Angels suddenly are a hot team with four straight wins after last night's 9-5 victory over Baltimore. Nick Tropeano came off the disabled list and gave up two runs and four hits in five innings on Monday although the Angels lost 4-2 to Tampa Bay. Tropeano is 2-1 with a 2.78 road ERA this season and the Orioles will be facing him for the first time. And we should note the Angels are on a 6-0 run when Tropeano takes the mound against teams with a winning record. Yovani Gallardo is still struggling and didn't make it past the fourth inning in a 7-5 loss at the Dodgers on Monday. Gallardo allowed four runs and six hits and now has a 6.10 ERA. Angels hitters are batting .308 versus Gallardo and Los Angeles has won four of their last five games in Baltimore. I'm backing the Angels, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-09-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
I'm backing the SF Giants on Saturday afternoon. Robbie Ray once was a hot prospect, but with a 4-7 record and 4.78 ERA, he still has a ways to go to prove he can make it in the major leagues. Ray has allowed 12 runs and 21 hits his last three starts in 17 1/3 innings and Arizona lost all three games. The left-hander was the starter against the Giants in a 5-4 loss on Sunday. Jake Peavy bounced back from a bad outing against Oakland and allowed just one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings against Colorado. Peavy has a 3.96 ERA at home and the Giants have won 17 of Peavy's last 22 home starts dating to last season. Arizona has lost 10 of its last 11 games overall. I'm backing the Giants, my Mismatch release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-08-16 | Rays v. Red Sox -108 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
I'm backing the Red Sox on Friday night. Chris Archer allowed no runs in 5 2/3 innings his last outing against Detroit but the Rays still have lost his last five starts and his overall record now is 4-11 with a 4.50 ERA, including 3-5 and 6.65 on the road. Archer is 0-2 with an 8.44 against Boston this season and 0-8 versus the Red Sox the last four years. Sean O'Sullivan gave Boston a strong five innings after being called up from the minor leagues, which is what the Sox needed after getting embarrassed 21-2 by the Angels the day before. Boston didn't have their best June but the Red Sox have won three of their last four games while Tampa Bay has lost 20 of its last 26 games overall and Archer has lost nine of his last 12 road starts. The Rays have dropped seven straight road games as a team. That combined with Archer's 0-8 situation for 15-0 combined spots. I'm backing the Red Sox, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-07-16 | Mariners v. Royals -126 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
I'm backing the KC Royals on Thursday night. Kansas City got swept at Toronto but now the Royals come home where they are 27-11 and Danny Duffy now has had seven decent starts in a row, Duffy allowed just four earned runs in 16 2/3 innings his last two outings with 16 strikeouts and no walks and the Royals won both games. Seattle has lost three straight, including 9-8 at Houston last night when the bullpen had to pitch 4 2/3 innings. James Paxton is 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA overall and 5.19 on the road. In his last three starts, Paxton has been hammered for 13 runs and 28 hits in 18 1/3 innings. Kansas City has won 24 of Duffy's last 33 home starts and the Mariners are 3-15 their last 18 road games and have lost four of their last five against left-handed starters. We're getting a good line with Kansas City at home. I'm backing the Royals, my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-07-16 | A's +109 v. Astros | 3-1 | Win | 109 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Oakland A's on Thursday. Rich Hill came off the disabled list and picked up where he left off as he allowed only two runs and four hits in six innings against Pittsburgh. Hill is 8-3 with a 2.31 ERA overall, including 6-0 and 1.40 on the road. The left-hander gave up two runs and two hits in six innings against Houston earlier this season and the Astros collectively are 4-for-28 against Hill. Doug Fister has struggled his last two starts allowing nine runs and 17 hits in 11 2/3 innings and he threw 103 pitches in just 4 2/3 innings versus the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. He'll face an Oakland squad on a 6-1 run on the road against right-handers. Also, Houston's bullpen may be a little worn out after using four relievers last night in a 9-8 win over Seattle. The Athletics have won seven of their last 11 road games and I'm betting this will be a good spot for the road underdog. I'm backing the Oakland A's, my DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-06-16 | Padres +125 v. Diamondbacks | 13-6 | Win | 125 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm backing the SDG Padres on Wednesday. Shelby Miller was thought to have been a hard luck pitcher because for a long time he didn't get much run support, but now it appears he's just not that good anymore. Miller is 2-8 with a 6.85 ERA and in his last five games he's allowed 22 runs and 42 hits in just 29 1/3 innings. Arizona has lost five of his last six starts and Miller is 0-6 with a 7.05 ERA at home this season. Colin Rea comes off a good performance against the Yankees giving up two runs and four hits in six innings in a 7-6 San Diego win. The Padres have won his last three starts. The Diamondbacks have won just one of their last nine home games and they're 7-20 at home against right-handed starters. The value is with San Diego. I'm backing the Padres, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-06-16 | Yankees -138 v. White Sox | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -138 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
I'm backing the Yankees on Wednesday. New York won 9-0 last night and now Michael Pineda takes the mound after coming off two good performances allowing only two runs and four hits in 12 innings with the Yankees winning both games over the Twins and Rangers by 2-1 scores. The Yankees have won five of Pineda's last six starts and he had a 2.75 ERA in June. Last year against the White Sox, Pineda allowed one run in six innings. The Yankees have won 13 of the last 17 meetings with Chicago. Miguel Gonzalez is 1-3 with a 7.84 ERA at home and in his last two starts at U.S. Cellular Field, he has given up 15 runs and 18 hits in just 8 2/3 innings. Gonzalez has allowed three runs and five hits in 4 2/3 innings versus the Yanks this season and eight runs and 16 hits in 20 innings last year. I'm backing the Yankees, my Pitching Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-05-16 | Orioles v. Dodgers -146 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -146 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
I'm backing the L.A. Dodgers on Monday. The Dodgers won their fifth straight, 7-5 on Monday and now face Chris Tillman, who got off to a great start this season sometimes due to good run support but now things are evening out as he has been pounded for 14 runs and 21 hits his last 14 2/3 innings. Tillman is 7-0 at home, but just 3-2 with a 4.17 ERA on the road. Baltimore has lost five in a row while giving up 38 runs in that span and Kenta Maeda has won six of last eight starts. Maeda has allowed just 10 earned runs his last 40 2/3 innings and he had a 2.52 ERA in June after slipping a bit in May. Los Angeles has won 22 of its last 28 home games and six of their last seven interleague home games. I'm backing the Dodgers, my Heavy Hitter on Tuesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-05-16 | Brewers +153 v. Nationals | 5-2 | Win | 153 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Brewers on Tuesday. Milwaukee comes off a 1-0 win against Max Scherzer and the Nationals on Monday and now we're getting a good price with Zach Davies against Gio Gonzalez tonight. Prior to his last start, Davies allowed just six earned runs in 33 innings with 36 strikeouts. I believe his most recent outing was an anomaly and I look for Davies to get right back on track. Gio Gonzalez has been nothing short of disastrous his last eight starts as he has given up 40 runs and 55 hits in 43 1/3 innings and the only game Washington won in that stretch was when it scored 13 runs against Cincinnati. Milwaukee batters have a .904 OPS against Gonzalez and in three innings against him this season, the Brewers scored six runs on six hits. Last year against Milwaukee, Gonzalez allowed five runs and eight hits in five innings. The Washington hurler has been tagged for a 5.04 ERA & 1.48 WHIP in six lifetime starts against Milwaukee. We'll back the Brewers tonight, our DogPound release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-04-16 | Rockies v. Giants -138 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
I'm backing the SF Giants on Monday afternoon. Jake Peavy was doing well until his last start when he allowed seven runs (three earned) in a 7-1 loss to Oakland. However, Peavy was the victim of some shoddy defense early in the game and never really had a chance as things went downhill from there. San Francisco comes off a 5-4, 11-inning win over Arizona yesterday and the Giants now are 18-4 their last 22 games against NL West teams. Colorado lost its fifth in a row and scored a grand total of two runs in a three-game series against the Dodgers while collecting just 12 hits. Tyler Anderson hasn't been bad in 17 2/3 innings his last three starts but the Rockies lost all three games. The Giants have won 16 of Peavy's last 21 home starts. I'm backing the Giants, my Daytime Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-03-16 | Angels +104 v. Red Sox | 5-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Angels on Sunday. Many times a team that has been humiliated will come back with a strong performance the next game, however, it's difficult to see Boston doing it with this matchup between Matt Shoemaker and Sean O'Sullivan. Shoemaker owns a 1.87 ERA his last eight starts while allowing just five walks with 68 strikeouts. Meanwhile O'Sullivan makes his first appearance since May 15 when he gave up six runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innings before being sent down to Pawtucket. Overall this season, the right-hander has given up 10 earned runs and 19 hits in 11 1/3 innings. Shoemaker has allowed no runs and one hit in 10 2/3 innings at Fenway Park in his career. Los Angeles has won 22 of its last 30 games against the Red Sox and 12 of its last 17 at Fenway. I'm backing the Angels, my Daytime Shocker on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-03-16 | Royals v. Phillies -118 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
I'm backing the Phillies on Sunday. Vince Velasquez had a successful return from the disabled list as he pitched five shutout innings while allowing just five hits in five innings at Arizona. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.24 ERA at home this season. The Phillies lost 6-2 last night but still have won four of their last five games and Kansas City is 16-25 on the road, including a 3-11 slide on the road against right-handers. Yordano Ventura was rocked for seven runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings his last outing against St. Louis and he has given up six or more runs three times in his last six starts. The Royals have lost Ventura's last seven interleague road starts. Philadelphia started the season as one of the worst offensive teams in baseball but the Phillies have turned it around and averaged nearly six runs their last six games. I'm backing the Phillies, my Daytime Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-02-16 | Royals -131 v. Phillies | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm backing the KC Royals on Saturday. Kansas City will try and bounce back from a 4-3 loss last night in Philadelphia with Danny Duffy, who hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts. Duffy gave up two runs and six hits in eight innings his last outing against St. Louis and he has a 2.03 ERA on the road. Aaron Nola has been nothing short of a disaster lately as the Phillies have lost his last four starts by a combined score of 43-19. In those games, Nola has allowed 25 runs (22 earned), 32 hits in just 13 innings and he had a 10.42 ERA in the month of June. The Phils are also on a 1-7 slide at home. The NL East entry is at or near the bottom in every offensive category against left-handers, including a .282 on-base percentage. I'm backing the Royals, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-02-16 | Tigers -122 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
We had Detroit last night and I'm backing the Tigers on Saturday. Detroit won its fourth in a row with a 10-2 win over the hapless Rays, who have lost 14 of their last 16 games. The line on this game is reasonable for the favored Tigers due to Justin Verlander's poor performance his last outing, but he had been pitching well until then and Tampa Bay hitters have a collective .197 against the right-hander. Verlander has a 1.69 ERA against the Rays the last three seasons and all the games were at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay has a .233 batting average at home while scoring only 144 runs, which is 27th in the major leagues. Rookie Blake Snell has allowed 12 runs (seven earned) and 23 hits his last 15 1/3 innings and the Tigers are on a 6-0 run against pitchers with a WHIP higher than 1.30. Detroit has scored 20 runs its last two games. I'm backing the Tigers, my AL Mismatch GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-01-16 | Rangers -107 v. Twins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Friday. Texas has lost two in a row due to self-inflicted wounds, including losing on a passed ball yesterday after blowing a big lead in the ninth the night before. However, the Rangers have a chance to get back on track against woeful Minnesota as they are undefeated in Martin Perez' last seven starts, including a 6-2 win over Boston on Sunday when he allowed just one run in six innings. Ervin Santana is 2-7 with a 4.64 ERA and the Twins have lost seven of his last eight starts. Santana is 1-4 with a 5.19 ERA at home and his career ERA versus Texas is 5.67. Thursday's loss was the first time the Rangers lost two straight since May 18 and they still are in first place in the AL West by 8 1/2 games. Meanwhile, the Twins are dead last and 9-21 their last 30 home games and Texas has won eight of its last 10 road games. I'm backing the Rangers, my Beatdown on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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07-01-16 | Tigers -111 v. Rays | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
I'm backing the Detroit Tigers on Friday. The streaky Detroit Tigers won their third straight last night in miraculous fashion scoring eight runs in the top of the ninth to beat the Rays 10-7. Rookie Michael Fulmer has allowed just three earned runs and 21 hits his last seven starts in 44 2/3 innings. The Tigers have won eight of Fulmer's last nine starts, including a win against Tampa Bay when he gave up one run and four hits in seven innings. Drew Smyly is 2-8 with a 5.32 ERA and has been pummeled to the tune of 31 runs and 47 hits his last 33 2/3 innings. Smyly gave up five runs and 10 hits in five innings his last start at Baltimore. The left-hander has served up eight home run balls in 37 1/3 innings at home this season and the Tigers have won seven of their last nine against southpaw starters. The Rays have lost 13 of their last 15 games and are even more demoralized after Thursday's debacle. I'm backing the Detroit Tigers, my Road Warrior on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-30-16 | Cubs -130 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
I'm backing the Cubs on Thursday night. The Chicago Cubs are back to their winning ways after a 9-2 victory at Cincinnati for their third win in a row and we're getting a decent line with John Lackey tonight. Lackey did lose his last start at Miami, but it was mostly due to one bad inning and he is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA against the Mets in his career. Also, prior to that loss, Lackey had 10 straight quality starts. Steven Matz is battling elbow soreness and New York has lost four of his last five starts and the one game they won Matz allowed six runs and nine hits in 4 1/3 innings on Friday. The Mets have lost four in a row and the Cubs have won 24 of their last 33 games against left-handed starters and they are seventh in the major leagues with a .787 OPS versus southpaws. I'm backing the Cubs, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-30-16 | Rangers +128 v. Yankees | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Rangers on Thursday (day game). The Texas bullpen blew last night's game at Yankee Stadium but look for the Rangers to bounce back behind A.J. Griffin, who is 3-0 with a 3.08 ERA. Griffin already has faced the Yankees this season when he allowed just one run and four hits in eight innings on April 26. The right-hander came off the disabled list and gave up two runs and four hits in 4 1/3 innings on Saturday as the Rangers won 10-3. Texas is on a 36-16 run and has won Griffin's last five starts plus the Rangers are 12-2 after a loss. Michael Pineda has pitched better of late but he still is 3-7 with a 5.51 ERA, including 2-3 and 5.59 at home. In six innings against Texas last year, Pineda was rocked for seven runs and eight hits in just six innings. It's a good spot for the road underdog. I'm backing the Rangers on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-29-16 | Giants -103 v. A's | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
I'm backing the SF Giants on Wednesday night after they were involved in a wild one at home last night. Once again Jake Peavy has resurrected his career and has five quality starts in his last six outings, including beating Philadelphia 5-4 while allowing two runs and seven hits in seven innings on Friday. Peavy has allowed just eight runs and 27 hits in 37 2/3 innings in those six starts with the only loss being a 6-3 defeat at St. Louis. Oakland is 27th in the major leagues with a .691 OPS against right-handers. Sean Manaea will make his first start since coming off the disabled list (forearm) and he didn't pitch too well before the injury as he is 2-3 with a 6.02 ERA. Manaea has given up 33 runs and 55 hits, including eight home runs, in 49 1/3 innings. The Giants are on an 8-1 run on the road against left-handers and they're on a 23-5 run against starting pitchers with a WHIP higher than 1.30. San Francisco has the third-best record in the majors while the Athletics are trying to stay out of last place in the AL West and we have a favorable line. The Giants are my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-28-16 | Pirates v. Mariners -137 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Mariners on Tuesday. Pittsburgh already was a tired team after not having a day off since June 13 and now the Pirates have to travel to the West Coast after losing 5-4 at home to the Dodgers on Monday afternoon. The Pirates have lost 15 of their last 20 games, including their last five road contests. Jonathon Niese is 6-5 with a 4.93 ERA and has allowed 17 runs and 24 hits his last three starts in just 16 2/3 innings and the Pirates lost all three. Hisashi Iwakuma had a rough outing at Detroit but previously had been giving the Mariners six or seven innings per appearance. The right-hander was 5-1 in the six games prior to his last start. Seattle has won eight of its last 10 interleague games and the Pirates are 3-12 against right-handed starters. I'm playing the Mariners, my IL Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-28-16 | Red Sox -104 v. Rays | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
I'm backing the Red Sox on Tuesday. Tampa Bay broke an 11-game losing streak with a 13-7 win last night but look for another streak to start as Chris Archer is 0-6 with a 5.12 ERA against Boston the last three seasons and he allowed six runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings versus the Red Sox this year. Archer is 4-10 with a 4.70 ERA overall and 1-5 at home. Boston leads the major leagues with an .831 OPS against right-handers, plus a .290 batting average. Rick Porcello is 8-2 and allowed three runs in seven innings in one appearance against the Rays this season and he is 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA at Tropicana Field the last three seasons. The Rays have lost 10 of their last 11 against right-handed starters and six of Archer's last seven starts (16-2 combined spots). Archer has not been the same since the Royals knocked him around right before the 2015 all-star break. We'll back the Red Sox, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-27-16 | Astros +102 v. Angels | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Monday night. Â Los Angeles finally won a game yesterday after losing six in a row, but the Angels are in last place and 17 games behind in the AL West Division and just 16-23 at home. Â Meanwhile, even though Houston lost yesterday, the Astros are one of the hottest teams in baseball and winners of seven of their last eight games. Â The Angels have lost four of Matt Shoemaker's last five starts although he has been getting little run support. Shoemaker is 1-4 at home with a 4.43 ERA and Astros hitters have a collective .770 OPS against him. Collin McHugh comes off two strong starts allowing three runs in 13 2/3 innings and Houston has won five of his last six starts. He gave up just two runs and five hits in seven innings in one appearance against the Angels this season and last year gave up four runs in 15 1/3 innings at Angel Stadium. I'm backing the Astros on Monday. Â Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-27-16 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -131 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
I'm backing the Diamondbacks on Monday night. Â Philadelphia got off to a surprisingly good start this season but has since come back to reality as the Phillies have lost 35 of their last 52 games. Arizona swept a four-game series in Philadelphia last week but don't expect revenge as the Phillies have lost 11 of their last 14 road games. Â Vince Velasquez has not pitched since June 8 when he suffered a biceps injury and he had given up 12 runs and 22 hits in 13 innings his three previous starts. Â The right-hander has a 1.24 ERA at home but it's 5.79 on the road where his opponent batting average is .302. Â Robbie Ray allowed two runs in six innings against Philadelphia earlier this season and the Phillies are at or near the bottom in the major leagues in every offensive category versus left-handers. I'm backing the Arizona Diamondbacks, my Mismatch release. Thanks & GL! Â Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-26-16 | Red Sox v. Rangers -102 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Sunday. Texas is 27-12 at home and has won 21 of its last 27 games overall and still gets little respect from the public, leading to nice value as the Rangers open as just a slight favorite in today's game. Clay Buchholz made his first start after several appearances out of the bullpen and allowed three runs and four hits in five innings in a 3-1 loss to the White Sox. Buchholz is 3-7 with a 5.83 ERA this season and 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA against the Rangers the last three years. Texas has won Martin Perez' last six starts and he is 5-1 with a 2.61 ERA at home and the Red Sox have lost their last four games against lefty starters. The Rangers have won nine of their last 11 at home against right-handed starters and we expect more of the same in this one. I'm backing the Texas Rangers, my Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-26-16 | Blue Jays v. White Sox -130 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
I'm backing the White Sox on Sunday. Chicago hit seven home runs and still lost 10-8 to Toronto yesterday but the White Sox shouldn't have to hit that many homers today with Chris Sale on the mound. The left-hander is coming off a gem at Boston in which he allowed just one run and four hits with nine strikeouts in a 3-1 win. Sale is 6-1 at home and gave up only one run and four hits in eight innings against the Blue Jays earlier this season. Toronto hitters have a .196 batting average versus Sale and the White Sox have won 13 of his last 16 starts overall and seven of his last eight home starts. Marcus Stroman lasted only 3 2/3 innings his last outing at Baltimore when he allowed seven runs and 10 hits in an 11-6 loss. Stroman has given up 26 runs and 44 hits his last 27 innings pitched. We're getting a bargain price with Sale in this matchup. I'm backing the White Sox, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-25-16 | Mets v. Braves +123 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Braves on Saturday. Atlanta had beaten the Mets four games in a row before Friday's 8-6 loss and the Braves' bats have come alive after being the worst offensive team in baseball for two months. Atlanta has averaged nearly five runs its last nine games while winning seven of them. Julio Teheran pitched a complete-game shutout last Sunday against the Mets and he now has a stellar 2.66 ERA and obviously is better than his 3-7 record indicates. Teheran has not given up more than three runs his last 12 starts and last year the Mets batted just .111 against him in 17 1/3 innings. The Mets have lost Jacob deGrom's last four starts, however, he has been given little run support, which is likely to happen again tonight. Atlanta has won six in a row against right-handed starters. I'm backing the Atlanta Braves, my Perfect-10! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-25-16 | Tampa Bay Rays - Game #2 v. Baltimore Orioles - Game #2 -146 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing the Orioles on Saturday. Chris Tillman quietly has compiled a 10-1 record with a 3.11 ERA and Baltimore has won 11 of his last 12 starts. The right-hander is 7-0 with a 2.81 ERA at home with 61 strikeouts in 57 2/3 innings. Tillman already has beaten Tampa Bay twice this season while giving up just one run and six hits in 11 2/3 innings. With last night's 6-3 loss, the Rays have lost eight in a row and are 16-20 on the road. Meanwhile, the Orioles are in first place in the AL East Division and 28-13 at Camden Yards. Jake Odorizzi has allowed 16 hits in 11 innings against the Orioles this year and he has a 7.20 ERA at Camden Yards the last three seasons. Baltimore has won 41 of Tillman's 59 home starts. This is the second game of a day-night doubleheader and we'll back the home team. Baltimore is my Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-24-16 | Cardinals -131 v. Mariners | 3-4 | Loss | -131 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm backing the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday. Seattle staggers home after being swept in a four-game series at Detroit and now has to travel three time zones with no rest. The Mariners added to their misery by coming back from a 4-1 deficit only to lose on a wild pitch in 10 innings. Wade LeBlanc is scheduled to start in place of Taijuan Walker, who has tendinitis in his right foot, but regardless the Mariners are in a tough spot facing St. Louis, which is coming off a sweep of the first-place Cubs. Not only is Seattle's starting rotation in a bind, but the bullpen also is in trouble as the Mariners used six relievers on Thursday. Carlos Martinez has four quality starts in a row after a rough stretch in May and the right-hander is 4-1 with a 1.78 ERA on the road. Martinez has allowed only four runs in 21 1/3 innings in June, including seven shutout innings against Texas last Saturday. I'm backing the Cardinals, my Friday Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-24-16 | Astros v. Royals +109 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
I'm backing the Kansas City Royals on Friday. Houston has been hot winning five in a row but now the Astros run into the best home team in baseball in Kansas City, which is 25-8 at Kauffman Stadium. Dallas Keuchel is 2-6 with a 5.91 ERA on the road and last year in this park, Keuchel allowed five runs and 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings and Houston has lost six of his last eight road starts. The Royals have won 18 of their last 24 games versus left-handed starters and an astonishing 60 of their last 84 home games overall dating to last season. Edinson Volquez is 6-0 with a 2.70 ERA against the Astros in his career. (66-24 mark combined Volquez' record with the 60-24 home mark). Volquez was the beneficiary of the Royals' 16-5 win over Detroit his last start but he is 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA at home this season. I'm backing the KC Royals, my Knockout release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-23-16 | Mariners v. Tigers -122 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
I'm backing the Detroit Tigers on Thursday. Detroit has been a streaky team this season and now the Tigers have started another winning streak with their third straight victory last night against Seattle. The Mariners have lost five in a row and it appears they were overachieving earlier this season when they were briefly in first place but now find themselves 10 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers. Daniel Norris will make his first start of the year and only three Seattle batters have ever faced him. Adrian Sampson comes off his first start when he was knocked out in the fifth after giving up four runs and eight hits in a 6-2 loss at Boston. Detroit is fourth in the major leagues with an .803 OPS at home and the Tigers have won eight of their last nine home games. I'm backing the Tigers, my Daytime Dominator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-23-16 | Giants +104 v. Pirates | 5-3 | Win | 104 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm backing the SFO Giants on Thursday. San Francisco won again last night, this time coming back from a 6-1 deficit to hand Pittsburgh its 12th loss in its last 14 games. Jonathan Niese has allowed 12 runs and 17 hits, including five home runs, his last two starts in just 10 2/3 innings to bring his record to 6-4 with a 4.74 ERA. The Pirates have lost 13 of their last 16 games against right-handed starters and the Giants are 9-2 their last 11 games versus southpaw starters (22-5 spots). Albert Suarez will be making his fourth start after beginning the season in the bullpen. The Giants have won his last two games although he pitched only 8 1/3 innings and allowed five runs. However, the Pirates will be seeing Suarez for the first time and San Francisco at near even money owns the value when considering recent performances by these teams. I'm backing that value and playing the Giants, my TKO. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-22-16 | Rays v. Indians -124 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday. Chris Archer just hasn't been right all season and Tampa Bay has lost five of his last six starts while the left-hander has allowed 25 runs (20 earned) and 37 hits in 36 innings. Archer is 4-9 with a 4.60 ERA overall and 3-4 and 6.75 on the road. Even when he was a decent pitcher, Archer had trouble against Cleveland as he has an 0-3 record and 5.40 ERA against the Indians the last three seasons. The Rays have lost six straight after last night's 6-0 loss to the Indians and they have lost 22 of their last 26 games on the road against winning teams. Trevor Bauer comes off five quality starts in a row, including a 3-2 win against the White Sox in his last outing when he gave up only one run and four hits in seven innings. Cleveland has won five straight and is 22-12 at home. We backed them on Monday and we'll do so again here. I'm backing the Cleveland Indians, my Mismatch. Please note: The 36-4 spots including TB's 0-6 slide, Archer's 0-3 record, Cleveland's 5-0 run and 22-4 run. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-22-16 | Giants -113 v. Pirates | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm backing the SF Giants on Wednesday. Pittsburgh is in free fall after a 15-4 loss to the Giants last night, the 11th loss in 13 games for the Pirates. Francisco Liriano has lost his last four starts while allowing 20 runs (16 earned), 26 hits and 16 walks in 21 innings. San Francisco has won 19 of its last 26 road games and nine of its last 10 overall. Jeff Samardzija had a rough patch but recovered to throw a complete game at Tampa Bay on Friday giving up just one run and four hits with no walks. Samardzija has a 2.89 ERA against the Pirates the last three years, including a 1.61 ERA and a .194 opponent batting average at PNC Park. Liriano has issued 46 bases on balls this season, which leads the major leagues in that dubious category. We're getting great value in this matchup. I'm backing the Giants, my Road Warrior on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-21-16 | Brewers v. A's -146 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Oakland A's on Tuesday night. Jimmy Nelson had a good first two months of the season but has suffered a meltdown in June as he has allowed 16 runs (14 earned), 23 hits and eight walks in only 13 innings. Milwaukee has lost his last three starts and the Brewers have lost their last three games overall and six of their last seven. Nelson has pitched well at home but the right-hander is 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA on the road. Sonny Gray has been effective his last three starts except for one inning in his last appearance against Texas. He gave up just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings his previous two outings. Oakland has won 37 of its last 51 interleague home games and looks to avenge an earlier two-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers earlier this month. I'm backing the Oakland A's, my TKO release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-21-16 | White Sox v. Red Sox -107 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
I'm backing the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night. Clay Buchholz will make his first start after five relief appearances and he has a good chance to get back on track against Chicago, whose hitters have a combined .214 batting average against Buchholz, and he allowed two runs in seven innings in one appearance against the White Sox this season. Chris Sale has been shaky his last five starts allowing 20 runs and 40 hits in 29 2/3 innings. The Red Sox trail only Colorado with a home OPS of .856 and they are third in the majors with an .820 OPS versus left-handers. The White Sox have lost six of their last nine overall and 18 of their last 28 games. The Red Sox have won four home games in a row against southpaw starters and four in a row against Sale. Finally, the White Sox are on a 1-6 slide on the road. The last three situations combine for 14-1 spots. I'm playing the Red Sox, my Tuesday Knockout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-20-16 | Orioles v. Rangers +111 | 3-4 | Win | 111 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Monday. Texas is not getting any respect from the linemaker no matter how many games they win a row (6 in this case) as once again the Rangers are an underdog this time in a home write-in game. Kevin Gausman lasted only three innings at Boston on Wednesday and allowed six runs and seven hits. Baltimore has lost four of his last five starts and Gausman has been touched for 32 hits in 26 1/3 innings. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.78 ERA on the road and Texas hitters have a combined .802 OPS against him. Derek Holland has four quality starts in a row but has had two subpar outings since. However, Holland is 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA at home and has a .211 opponent batting average against the Orioles the last three years. Baltimore has lost 11 of Gausman's last 14 road starts and Texas has won 22 of its last 28 games overall. The Rangers are my next Value Beatdown! Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-20-16 | Rays v. Indians -119 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians on Monday. Tampa Bay has lost four straight after getting swept at home by San Francisco and tonight's starter, Drew Smyly, is 2-3 with a 5.13 ERA on the road. The left-hander has been pummeled to the tune of 19 runs and 29 hits in 21 2/3 innings his last four starts which includes a decent outing in a 3-2 win over Seattle. Josh Tomlin had one clunker against Texas but otherwise has pitched well since mid-May and has allowed just four runs in his last 23 1/3 innings. Tomlin is 8-1 with a 3.27 ERA overall and the Rays are batting only .229 against right-handers. The Indians are 20-12 at home after yesterday's 10-inning win over the White Sox which completed a sweep. Tampa Bay has lost 23 of its 28 road games against winning teams and Cleveland has won eight home games in a row. I'm backing the Indians, my Monday Mismatch. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-19-16 | Rangers +148 v. Cardinals | 5-4 | Win | 148 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers for the second time in this series. Â Texas scored four runs in the eighth and ninth innings to come from behind and beat the Cardinals for the Rangers' fifth straight win. Â St. Louis has scored a total of six runs while losing its last four games and will face Martin Perez, who is 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA his last five starts. Â First-place Texas is 20-15 on the road while the Cardinals are 15-20 at home. Â St. Louis has lost seven of its last nine home games. Â Mike Leake allowed three runs and six hits in a win at Pittsburgh last Sunday after being torched for six runs and 10 hits at Cincinnati in his previous start. Â In the last seven days, the Rangers are fifth in the major leagues with an .821 OPS while St. Louis is 24th at .671. Â Texas has won 14 of its last 17 interleague games against teams with winning records and the Cardinals have lost five of their last six interleague home games. Â I'm playing the Rangers, my Daytime DogPound on Sunday. Â Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. NOTE: The 29-4 spots include the two Texas 5-0 spots, the 14-3 Texas spot, and the 1-5 Cardinals' losing run. |
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06-19-16 | Giants +125 v. Rays | Top | 5-1 | Win | 125 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
I'm backing the SFO Giants on Sunday. The San Francisco Giants are on a 25-7 run against teams with a losing record. Â They normally beat the teams they're supposed. Â San Francisco won its seventh in a row 6-4 over the Rays on Saturday as Joe Panik hit a tiebreaking three-run home run in the ninth. Â Jake Peavy pitched six shutout innings against the Dodgers his last start on June 12. Every time it appears Peavy should consider retiring he comes back with some good performances and the Giants have won three of his last four starts. Â Tampa Bay lost its third straight and is last in the AL East Division and 15-19 at Tropicana Field. Â The Rays are 25th in the majors with just a .679 OPS on their home field. Â The Giants are 21-13 on the road and have a comfortbale lead in the NL West Division. Â Jake Odorizzi threw 116 pitches in only 5 2/3 innings while allowing five runs and eight hits against Seattle on Tuesday. Â The right-hander has a 5.40 ERA in three games in June and is 0-2 in seven starts at home. Â I'm backing the Giants, my Value Beatdown on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. Note: The 37-7 play-on spots, include SFO's 25-7 spot, their 7-0 streak, and Tampa Bay's 0-3 and 0-2 spots. |
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06-18-16 | Rockies +130 v. Marlins | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Colorado Rockies on Saturday afternoon. Tyler Chatwood is 3-4 at home but he's almost unhittable on the road where he is 5-0 with a microscopic 0.65 ERA allowing just three earned runs in 41 2/3 innings. Colorado has won five of his last six starts, including 5-3 over San Diego last Saturday which came at Coors Field. Wei-Yin Chen has given up nine runs and 16 hits his last two outings in just 11 1/3 innings. He got a win at San Diego even though he served up four home run pitches. Chen is 1-1 with a 5.01 ERA at home and the Rockies are ninth in the major leagues with a .764 OPS against left-handers. Colorado has won Chatwood's last seven road starts and the Rockies have won four of their last five games overall. Those last two situations add up to 11-1 combined spots. The Rockies are my Road Warrior on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-18-16 | Yankees -140 v. Twins | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm backing the NY Yankees on Saturday afternoon. New York is not having a great season, but if there's a team to help them get a few wins it would be Minnesota, which has lost 43 of its last 56 games against the Yankees, including a blowout loss last night. The Twins are in last place with a 20-47 record and are 6-19 their last 25 home games. Michael Pineda comes off three decent outings allowing six runs in 18 2/3 innings. Ricky Nolasco has a 5.12 ERA and has given up 38 earned runs and 70 hits his last 10 starts in 57 innings. Also, Nolasco has pitched much worse at home (0-2, 6.50) than on the road. The Yankees have won two straight following a four-game losing streak while the Twins have lost four in a row and they have lost 12 of 15 after losing the first two games of a series. Finally, NY is on an 11-1 run on the road against teams outscored by at least a 1/2 run per game. The Yankees have averaged 8 rpg in the 12 contests, while allowing just 3.4 rpg. The two game win streak combines with Minnesota's four game losing skid, and the 11-1 situation for 17-1 spots. I'm backing the Yankees, my Daytime Dominator GOM. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-17-16 | Tigers -111 v. Royals | 3-10 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Detroit Tigers on Friday. Detroit's hitters have warmed up with the weather and after last night's 10-4 win at Kansas City, the Tigers have averaged 7.2 runs while winning four of their last six games. Victor Martinez hit three of the Tigers' six home runs as they totaled 13 hits after recording 38 hits in a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox. Michael Fulmer has been nothing short of sensational allowing one run in his last five outings covering 34 2/3 innings while allowing just 13 hits and striking out 30. The Tigers are on a 7-0 run when the right-hander toes the rubber. Yordano Ventura is 5-4 with a 4.93 ERA and has had trouble putting two good starts together while still getting in trouble by starting fights. Ventura gave up one run in seven innings in a 3-1 win at the White Sox on Sunday after allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings at Baltimore. KC has won just one of their last eight following a loss. We're backing the Tigers, our Friday Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-17-16 | Rangers +100 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Friday night. Texas continues to rack up wins after Colby Lewis pitched a near no-hitter and the Rangers have won 15 of their last 19 games. Cole Hamels has pitched three straight quality starts allowing just six runs in 21 innings, including a 6-4 win at Seattle when he gave up one run and four hits in seven innings. The left-hander is 4-0 with a 1.94 ERA on the road this season and a 1.88 ERA at Busch Stadium the last three years. The Rangers have won 20 of Hamels' last 26 starts. Michael Wacha is having a disappointing 2-6 season and has given up 29 runs (25 earned) in his last six starts in 30 innings. Wacha hasn't won a decision since April 23 and his home ERA is 5.54. The Cardinals come off two home losses to the Astros in which they scored a total of three runs. I'm backing the Rangers, my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-15-16 | Astros v. Cardinals -113 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
I'm backing the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. Collin McHugh didn't make it out of the fourth inning in a 5-3 loss at Texas on Thursday. McHugh gave up four runs and seven hits in 3 2/3 innings and this followed an appearance against Oakland when he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings. McHugh now has an ERA of 5.22 overall and a 2-3 record with a 5.81 ERA on the road. The underachieving Astros are 14-21 away from home but still are being overvalued. St. Louis has won eight of Adam Wainwright's last nine starts, including a 3-2 win at Cincinnati on Thursday when he allowed just two runs and two hits in six innings. In his last 10 starts, Wainwright has walked only 10 batters in 61 1/3 innings. And, the Redbird righty is 13-1 with a 1.57 ERA in his career against Houston. The Cardinals are second in the majors with an .826 OPS against right-handers and have won five of their last six games overall and six of their last seven interleague games. The Cardinals are my Main Event. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-14-16 | Rangers +100 v. A's | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
I'm backing the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. Texas was annihilated last night but look for the Rangers to bounce back with Martin Perez, who has quality starts in six of his last seven outings. Perez allowed two runs and four hits in a 5-3 win over Houston on Thursday and the Rangers have won his last four starts. Texas leads the major leagues with a .288 batting average against left-handers which doesn't bode well for Eric Surkamp, who is 0-3 with a 6.41 ERA and has given up 13 runs and 21 hits his last three starts in only 12 innings. Texas has won eight of its last 11 games and in first place by 4 1/2 games while Oakland has lost seven of nine and temporarily escaped last place in the AL West Division with the Angels loss last night. There is good value with Texas in this matchup as a small favorite. I'm backing the Rangers, my Value Beatdown. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-12-16 | Marlins +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
I'm backing the Miami Marlins on Sunday with Adam Conley over Robbie Ray. The Diamondbacks won last night's matchup, yet still sit 12 games below .500 at home with an 11-23 record. Arizona has won just one of Ray's last nine starts, overall. The left-hander has been crushed in his last five home games, allowing 22 earned runs, 48 base runners, and seven home runs in just 23 IP. That's a hefty 8.61 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, and 2.74 HRs/9 IP mark. Ray has failed to reach five full innings in four of the five starts. Arizona is likely going to need to score some runs in this one, but one of their problems has been their weak numbers at the plate with RISP. The offense will face Adam Conley, who owns a 3.13 ERA & 1.29 WHIP in seven road starts. Conley, also a lefty, has punched-out 17 batters in his last 12 2/3 IP. The Marlins are on a 9-3 run against left-handers, averaging 5.3 rpg, while Arizona has won just four of their last 14 at home against southpaws. We also note that Miami ranks 1st, 4th, and 7th, in road team batting average, OBP, and OPS. They'll look to extend their run to 7-1 in head-to-head meetings with the D-backs. We believe they'll get there. I'm backing the Miami Marlins, my NL Mismatch release. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-11-16 | Mets -132 v. Brewers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
I'm backing the NY Mets on Saturday. Logan Verrett gets his fourth spot start of the season in what will be his 19 appearance, overall (3.22 ERA). He had a rough outing in Denver after not allowing a single earned run in either of his first two starts, spanning six innings in each. Verrett owns a 3.89 ERA in seven starts in his career and will be backed by MLB's third stingiest bullpen (ERA). I do expect Verrett to pitch more like his first two outings than his last at Coors Field, obviously, a tough place to start. The Mets' offense should have little trouble with Brewers' starter Wily Peralta, who is struggling horribly in 2016. The right-hander has been smashed for a 6.79 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and .365 BAA in 12 starts this season. His home ERA is even worse, north of 8.00, allowing 27 earned runs and 62 base runners in 29 2/3 IP, to go along with a .397 BAA. Peralta has a grand total of just 16 strikeouts at home and he's allowed five earned runs or more in five of his 12 starts this season. His team enters on a 15-36 slide against opponents with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Mets are 61-31 against teams who use their pens at least 4 innings per game on average and they're on a 30-12 run on the road against teams with a losing record. We'll back the Mets as they look to extend their streak to 7-0 in head-to-head meetings with the Brewers. The Mets are my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-10-16 | Indians -126 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
I'm backing the Cleveland Indians on Friday night. The Angels flew home last night, fresh off a four-game sweep suffered at the hands of the NY Yankees. The Halos have also dropped six of eight and are already 11 games behind Texas in the AL West. Hector Santiago is not likely the pitcher to help get things back on track. The Angel lefty has been horrible of late, allowing 18 earned runs, 17 hits, 11 walks, and 7 home runs in his last four starts, spanning 15 2/3 IP. Santiago's numbers are also not good in his last four starts against the Indians. Meanwhile, I don't expect a lot from the Angel bats. Albert Pujols and Mike Trout are a combined 1 for 13 against Cleveland starter, Corey Kluber. The right-hander owns a 79:18 K:BB rate in 79 2/3 IP this season, and he has a tremendous .197 BAA in six road starts. Kluber is backed by a bullpen with a top-10 ERA. The Angels enter on a 7-22 slide against starting pitchers with a WHIP below 1.15 (Kluber's is 1.08). We'll back the Indians as they look to extend their run to 8-2. Cleveland is my Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-06-16 | Astros +100 v. Rangers | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Houston Astros on Monday. Texas has won all six meetings with the Astros this season, but they're catching Houston at its best tonight. Since getting swept at home by Texas a couple of weeks ago, the Astros have reeled off 11 wins in 13 games. The offense has picked things up, ranking 8th, 5th, and 8th over the last week of action in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. Tonight, they'll face Colby Lewis, who we believe is due for a bit of a market correction. Lewis owns nice numbers on the surface, but he has just three combined strikeouts in his last two starts and his metrics show he may be due for a rough patch. Mike Fiers pitched well in his lone start against Texas earlier this season, holding the Rangers to two earned runs and six base runners in seven innings of work. But the offense wasn't clicking back then and Houston lost 2-1. I expect the offense to give the right-hander enough support tonight, leading to a road win for the Astros. Houston has won four straight road games and 11 of their last 13, overall. We'll back the Astros, our Road Warrior. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-04-16 | Rays -113 v. Twins | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday afternoon. Minnesota enters with a 1-8 record when Ervin Santana toes the rubber in 2016. The right-hander has an ERA higher than 4.80 in his last five starts with a 1.50 WHIP. And the veteran hurler has an ERA near 5.00 in four home starts. Tampa Bay snapped a five-game skid last night and I expect the red-hot bats of Evan Longoria & Logan Morrsion to do damage on Saturday. Tampa, as a team, has fared well on the road this season, overall, in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. They'll look to continue their dominance over Santana who owns a hefty 5.34 ERA in 16 starts against the Rays. The Tampa bats should provide enough offense for Matt Andriese to succeed. The right-hander owns a 2.36 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a .198 BAA in five starts this season. And while the Twins are 3-13 in their last 16 against righties, the Rays are on a 6-0 run on the road when Andriese starts against teams with a losing record. The Rays are also on an 11-4 run in Minnesota. I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays, my Afternoon Annihilator. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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06-03-16 | Nationals -150 v. Reds | 2-7 | Loss | -150 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm backing the Washington Nationals on Friday. Gio Gonzalez will look to right the ship after a couple of weak home outings. He's on the road tonight where he's pitched well, posting a 2.52 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .225 BAA in four starts this season. Gonzalez has been terrific in his career against the Reds and the lefty should have the upper hand again. The Reds have not fared well against southpaws this season and have won just 7 of their last 27 against lefties, overall. Washington has been terrific at the plate against left-handed starters and they're facing one tonight who has been struggling. The Reds are on a 0-8 slide when Brandon Finnegan toes the rubber. The Cincy southpaw has walked 13 batters in his last 24 innings and his ERA is nearly 5.00 with a 1.52 WHIP in his last eight outings. Finnegan is averaging just over 5 IP per start at home and that means we have a solid chance to see plenty of the worst bullpen in MLB. Reds relievers are 30th in bullpen ERA (6.62), 1.41 runs higher than the next worst team. Washington enters on an 8-0 run on the road against lefties and rank 5th, 3rd, and 2nd, against southpaws in team batting average, OBP, and OPS, respectively. Unlike Cincy, the Nats' pen ranks 2nd in MLB in ERA. Finally, Bryce Harper is questionable with a bruised knee. He's missed the last two games, but we aren't worried if he misses a third. The Nationals have 20 hits and 12 runs in the two games he's missed. Washington's 8-0, along with the 0-8 Finnegan go-against situation adds up to 16-0 spots. We'll back the Nationals, our Situational Blowout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer. |
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