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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-30-16 | Morehead State +4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 68-77 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
25* graded play on Morehead State as they take on Nevada in Game of the best-of-three CIT Championship Final set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Morehead State will win the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2010. Play against home teams as a favorite or pick (NEVADA) revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MS is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game this season; 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, MS is a strong 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. |
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03-30-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
25* graded play on Toronto as they host Atlanta in NBA action set to start at 7:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game by more than 5 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 25-5 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a road win by 3 points or less. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toronto is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. Toronto historically is 147-96 ATS (+41.4 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1996. The Raptors are 182-124 ATS (+45.6 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game while the Hawks are 123-167 ATS (-60.7 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game since 1996. Fundamental Discussion Points Toronto is 7-3 ATS versus Atlanta over the past 3 seasons. These two teams score the exact same PPG and Toronto has a slight edge in opponents PPG making them 5th and Atlanta 6th in the ranking in that category. Toronto will outrebound Atlanta since the Hawks are 3rd worst in rebounds as Toronto is 3rd best in allowing opponents rebounds. Toronto is ranked 10th in grabbing rebounds and Atlanta is 27th in preventing them. The Raptors are 3rd best in the NBA in forcing 22.2 opponents fouls per game. They create a free throw every 3 FG attempted and are 2nd ranked in free throws made per game. They are fourth best from beyond the arc shooting 36.8% threes. Toronto also is more fundamentally sound in ranking 4th best turning the ball over only 13 times a game which is 1.7 less than Atlanta. The Raptors will win by forcing fouls, creating free points, hitting their 3s, and grabbing more second chance rebounds this game. Pick Toronto. |
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03-29-16 | Hornets -11.5 v. 76ers | Top | 100-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
50* graded play on Charlotte as they take on Philadelphia in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Charlotte will win this game by more than 17 points. Philly is projected to shoot badly, which isn’t all that surprising. However, they are projected to shoot less than 30% from beyond the arc while Charlotte will connect on greater than 40% of those long range shots. Charlotte will have at least a 5 board edge in total rebounding. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 22-3 ATS mark good for 88% winners since 1996 and has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last five seasons. Play against underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Philly is just 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) when their opponents make 39% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons; 57-127 ATS (-82.7 Units) when they allow 105 to 109 points in a game since 1996; 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season; 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) when they grab 48 to 52 rebounds in a game this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Not only is Jahlil Okafor out, but Nerlens Noel is questionable for the Sixers in this game. Due to that, Philadelphia will struggle to rebound against Charlotte who already has the edge by a significant 2 more rebounds a game. Charlotte shoots better and allows less points than Philly as well. Most importantly of all however is fundamentally they are more sound; Charlotte turns the ball over a HUGE 4% less than Philly and they commit 3 less fouls per game. Charlotte is ranked 7th from the line, so they will be able to easily take advantage of that. Charlotte of course dominates most of the statistical categories as it were and will handle business against Philly yet again. Pick Charlotte. |
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03-29-16 | BYU v. Valparaiso -1.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
25* graded play on Valparaiso as they take on BYU in the NIT semifinals set to start at 7:00 PM ET at MSG, New York City. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Valpo will win this game by at least 7 points and advance to the NIT Finals. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU has been a money burning 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 29-59 ATS (-35.9 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game; 29-76 ATS (-54.6 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997; Valpo is a stout 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they grab more than 45 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons; 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. Valpo is a perfect 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting more than 45% with a defense of less than 42% over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Valpo is great against good teams as evidenced above. They grab more rebounds a game than BYU especially on the offensive end of the floor for more second chances to make up for the slight edge BYU has in effective shooting percentage. Valpo is a stout 13th best in the country in only allowing opponents 63.5 PPG. They are sixth best in the country in allowing opponents effective FG percentage which is more than 4 percentage points lower than BYU. Valpo shoots better from the foul line by a significant amount in this matchup. BYU may rank high in scoring but Valpo is outranks their offense with their defense. Valpo is fifth best only allowing opponents 28 points in the first half of games this season. Valpo's defense and experience will crush BYU in this NIT semifinal. Pick Valparaiso. |
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03-28-16 | Northern Illinois v. UC-Santa Barbara -4.5 | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
25* graded play on Cal Santa Barbara as they take on Northern Illinois in the Vegas 16 Tournament set to start at 5:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCSB will win this game by at least 7 points. Vegas-16 is an inaugural Tournament with oddly just eight teams. Nevertheless, this is a solid money making opportunity just as UNC, for example, was last night. The SIm Algorithm eliminates the human subjectivity factor, which in my 21-years of experience is cornerstone of the strong success we have enjoyed. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCSB is a solid 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game this season; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they have the around same number of rebounds (+-3) as their opponents in a game this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Vegas is closer to home for UCSB in this matchup. They produce 2 more assists a game, same number of rebounds, have 2.5% better effective FG percentage, allow opponents 2% less effective FG percentage, and have a better score margin than Northern Illinois. In tournament games go with the team that makes fewer mistakes and is more fundamentally sound which is UCSB. They foul less and turnover the ball less than Northern Illinois. UCSB will dominate this game. Pick Cal Santa Barbara. |
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03-27-16 | Cal-Irvine v. Coastal Carolina +2.5 | Top | 66-47 | Loss | -106 | 37 h 42 m | Show |
50* graded play on Villanova as they take on Kansas in the South Regional Final taking place at the KFC YUM Center in Louisville, KY and set to tip at 8:45 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game and advance to the Final Four Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line. However, for the ROI to be validated, we need a minimum of +140 on the money line. Currently, I am seeing +122/125 type levels, So, if the ML does not get to +140 due to increased betting on Kansas, then simply make this a 50* play using the line only. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2010. Play on neutral court teams as an underdog (VILLANOVA) after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Villanova is a solid 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game this season; Kansas is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points |
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03-27-16 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina -10 | Top | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Notre Dame in the East Regional Final set to start at 8:45 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNC will win the game by at least 12 points. Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is a near-perfect 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in quicker paced games where they attempt 63 to 69 shots over the last 2 seasons; 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games when they force 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Looking at several ‘power’ matchups UNC is in a great setup. They are 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts this season. The situational matchups are NOT at all good for ND. The Irish are an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season; 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. Fundamental Discussion Points The metrics point to UNC having a tremendous edge on both sides of the court. UNC ranks 8th in scoring offense, 4th in assists per game, and second in assists-to-turnover ratio. ND defense ranks 123rd in scoring defense, and an absolutely horrid 1.400 quotient for opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. This reflects that ND is not good at all against highly skilled passing teams like UNC. Rebounding is a MAJOR UNC matchup advantage. UNC ranks 4th averaging 12.7 offensive boards per game while ND ranks a miserable 257th allowing 9.8 offensive boards per game. Take UNC. |
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03-26-16 | Villanova +2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
50* graded play on Villanova as they take on Kansas in the South Regional Final taking place at the KFC YUM Center in Louisville, KY and set to tip at 8:45 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game and advance to the Final Four Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line. However, for the ROI to be validated, we need a minimum of +140 on the money line. Currently, I am seeing +122/125 type levels, So, if the ML does not get to +140 due to increased betting on Kansas, then simply make this a 50* play using the line only. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2010. Play on neutral court teams as an underdog (VILLANOVA) after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Villanova is a solid 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game this season; Kansas is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Historically Villanova is 3-1 ATS versus Kansas since 1997. So far in the tournament Nova 3 shooting percentages above 50% being 57.9%, then 59.3%, and smoking Miami with 62.7% shooting. Not only have they got better as the tournament went on, but it was also against much steeper competition. In neutral court tournament games with two excellent teams that are close in most categories the best pick is the more fundamentally sound team. Nova commits a significant 2 less fouls per game and 1% less turnover rate than Kansas. Villanova ranking 3rd best in the country from the foul line can take advantage of Kansas's mistakes in fouls. There's a tremendous amount of belief surrounding Villanova this year and especially after their performance against Miami, so join in the belief. Pick Villanova to make the Final Four. |
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03-26-16 | Jazz v. Wolves +7 | Top | 93-84 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on Minnesota as they take on Utah in NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Minnesota will lose the game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at pulling off the upset win. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 109-48 ATS mark good for 69.4% winners since 2010. Play on home teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in March games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah is just 3-11 against the money line (-14.2 Units) when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game this season; 1-12 against the money line (-13.0 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game this season; Further, Utah has not dressed well coming off a game installed as a favorite. In that role they are just 12-21 against the money line (-20.5 Units) after playing a game as an underdog this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Minnesota is 6-4 ATS versus Utah over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota scores 3 more points in the paint per game, 4 more assists per game, and 4 more fast break points per game than Utah. They also importantly turn the ball over less than Utah does. Minnesota is a top four team in getting to the foul line and making free throws. They are also 5th in the NBA in forcing opponents into fouls. Minnesota can surprise Utah by taking advantage of these free points they're sure to get this game. Pick Minnesota. |
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03-25-16 | Mavs v. Warriors -14 | Top | 120-128 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Golden State Warriors as they take on Dallas in NBA action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability GS will win this game by at least 17 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Golden State is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when they grab 10+ more rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons. They are a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. Dallas is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) versus good shooting teams - making more than 46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons and 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Carlisle is an imperfect 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of Dallas. Fundamental Discussion Points Golden State is 9-2 against the spread versus Dallas over the last 3 seasons. Chandler Parsons for Dallas is out for the season which makes them even less deep from the bench. As far as statistical categories, GS dominates the Mavs heavily in almost all of them. GS shoots 6% better effective FG percentage, defends 3% better in opponents effective FG percentage, and grab 4 more rebounds a game. They also block the ball 2 more times a game and steal the ball 2 more times a game than the Mavs. Golden State in this matchup has every edge and advantage, so they will dominate Dallas. Pick Golden State. |
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03-25-16 | Indiana +5.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 86-101 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 6 m | Show |
25* graded play on Indiana as they take on North Carolina in the SWEET 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:55 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Indiana will lose this game by less than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. You may remember that Indiana is one of my picks to win the Tournament and got 32:1 odds. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-24 ATS since 1997 good for 72%winners: Play On an underdog (INDIANA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indiana is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. Indiana is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. UNC is a very poor 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more this season. The Hoosiers are great against good teams posting 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons and 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Since 1997 Indiana is 4-0 against the spread versus N Carolina. Fundamental Discussion Points Unlike most teams they face, North Carolina does NOT dominate the statistical categories matching up with Indiana. Indiana does have an edge in PPG, opponents PPG and steals per game. Indiana of course is the BEST in the country at shooting and out classes even UNC by 6.9% better effective FG percentage. They are a whole 10% better in shooting threes. That's a weak spot for UNC as they are ranked 223rd in defending the deep ball. The Tarheels are also a weak 142nd in giving opponents 1st half points per game as Indiana is 3rd best in scoring 1st half points per game. Indiana is ranked a solid 57th in giving opponents 2nd half points per game versus North Carolina's 95th ranking in the same category. Indiana will be shooting their way to the elite 8. Pick Indiana. |
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03-25-16 | Gonzaga v. Syracuse +4 | Top | 60-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
25* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Gonzaga in the SWEET 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2010. Play on neutral court teams as an underdog (SYRACUSE) after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games. Neutral court is almost always a tournament situation where in the beginning of the season, conference, or NCAA Big Dance Tournament. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Syracuse is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games facing low pressure defensive teams forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season. Further, Gonzaga is a horrid situation noting they are just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Only meeting once before since 1997, Syracuse has the edge in these two teams history beating Gonzaga in their last meeting. Against better competition Syracuse has limited their opponents to 2 less PPG than Gonzaga has. Syracuse grabs 2 more offensive rebounds a game than Gonzaga, so they will get more second chances in this game. They also swipe the ball for 3 more steals a game and block the ball by 1 block better too. Gonzaga is great at shooting in general but in this matchup they're against the 11th best three point shooting defense limiting opponents like 'Zaga to just 30% shooting beyond the arc. 'Zaga may be 13th in scoring 1st half points a game, but 'Cuse is 12th best at allowing 1st half PPG. Syracuse commits less fouls a game as well making fewer free throw chances for Gonzaga. Syracuse can win this game on defense early and then completely shut down Gonzaga's 3 point chances to get back in the game. Pick Syracuse. |
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03-24-16 | Cavs v. Nets +8 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
25* graded play on Brooklyn as they take on Cleveland in NBA action set to start at 7:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability Brooklyn will lose this game by fewer than 8 points and has a shot to upset the Conference leading Cavaliers. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. They are also a poor 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game this season. Brooklyn is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Lue is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of CLEVELAND. Fundamental Discussion Points Kevin Love is probable to play for this game, but even if he does he'll play limited minutes being against a lesser team in the Nets. The Nets score more than 4 more points in the paint than the Cavaliers do. Brooklyn has an edge in getting more blocks per game and steals per game. Brooklyn is 2nd best in the NBA in committing as few as 18 fouls a game. A weakness for Cleveland is shooting from the stripe as they are a lowly 24th ranked in free throw percentage. The Nets can grab those extra, free points, more points in the paint, and limit the Cav's offense with some key blocks and steals in this game. Pick Brooklyn. |
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03-24-16 | Texas A&M +2.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 63-77 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Oklahoma in the SWEET 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 7:35 PM ET, Thursday, March 24. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Oklahoma is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when they have around the same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game and 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Oklahoma is also a poor 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season and 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. The trends do not favor Oklahoma as they are an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in March games this season and a terrible 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Texas A&M is 18-14 against the spread versus Oklahoma since 1997. TAMU grabs more rebounds, steals, assists, and has a higher score margin than Oklahoma. TAMU gets better as the game goes along especially defensively since they rank 18th in opponents 2nd half points. Although OU shoots better, TAMU grabs more offensive second chance rebounds to make up that difference. Texas A&M is the more fundamentally sound team with less turnovers per game. This is Oklahoma's first test in the tournament and as evidenced above they don't do well against good teams. Pick Texas A&M. |
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03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Villanova -4 | Top | 69-92 | Win | 100 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
25* graded play on Villanova as they take on Miami (Fla) in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start 7:10 PM ET, Thursday, March 24. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game by at least 8 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 102-59 ATS over the last 5 seasons good for 63.4% winners: PLAY AGAINST any team (MIAMI) - excellent shooting team (more than 47.5%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Villanova is a strong 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. They are 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. Miami is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making more than 77% of their shots since 1997. Villanova is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons compared to Miami who is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Villanova dominates the statistical categories in this matchup as the better team. They score 2 more PPG and allow 3 less PPG to opponents. They outclass Miami in ball movement posting 4 more assists per game and outranking them 20th-211th. Effective FG percentage wise Nova shoots 1.1% better and allows 1.4% less to opponents. Just in two point percentage Nova is ranked 4th best in the country and 26th best in allowing opponents two point percentage. Miami is 25th and 81st in those categories. It's interestingly the same rankings of 4th and 25th when it comes to Villanova and Miami's free throw shooting percentage. Villanova grabs a marginal amount more rebounds per game more and a marginal amount more steals per game than Miami too. There is no edge as they commit the same number of turnovers and fouls per game. So, Villanova will shoot better, pass better, grab more rebounds, steal the ball more, make more free points from the line, allow less scoring, and win this game. Pick Villanova. |
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03-23-16 | Georgia Tech +5 v. San Diego State | Top | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
25* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on San Diego State in the NIT quarterfinals set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that G-Tech will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-36 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2010. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN DIEGO ST) an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. G-Tech is a solid 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 60-34 ATS (+22.6 Units) when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game since 1997. Further, G-Tech is in a very favorable ‘power’ trend noting a near-perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Consider the conferences and schedules each time has had this season before drawing any conclusions from rankings and statistics. G-Tech scores 5 more PPG against better teams than SDST. They outrebound SDST per game, especially on the offensive end grabbing more second chances. G-Tech shoots a significant 2.3% effective FG percentage better. Despite playing more games against top teams, Georgia Tech is within one unit of SDST in the categories SDST has the 'advantage'. In tournament play the more fundamentally sound team wins, which in this case both teams make the same number of fouls per game, but G-Tech turns it over a significant 2% less. Georgia Tech will grab more second chances, be more accurate from the foul line and scoring in general, and capitalize on SDST's turnovers. Pick Georgia Tech. |
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03-23-16 | Heat +11.5 v. Spurs | Top | 88-112 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Miami Heat as they take on the San Antonio Spurs in NBA action set to start at 8:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at the upset win too. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 22.5* play using the line and a 2.5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-25 ATS good for 68% winners: Play on road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when they score 93 to 98 points in a game this season. They are a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game over the 2nd half of this season. Miami is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Historically Miami does 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making more than 80% of their shots since 1996. Fundamental Discussion Points As evidenced above Miami turns on the Heat (pun intended) over the second half of seasons in recent years. This game is vital and important for the Heat jockeying for playoff position as they are currently on an offensive roll shooting at least 50 percent for the sixth time in their last seven games. Even without having Chris Bosh, Miami averages more rebounds and blocks a game than the great Spurs do. They could pull off the upset here, but certainly they won't lose by double digits. Pick Miami. |
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03-22-16 | St. Mary's v. Valparaiso -4.5 | Top | 44-60 | Win | 104 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
50* graded play on Valparaiso as they take on St. Mary's set to start at 7 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Valpo will win this game by more than 6 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this play is a proven system posting 40-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons good for 73% winners: PLAY ON favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (VALPARAISO) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, on Tuesday nights. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Valpo is a solid 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons; 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997; Further, Valpo is in a perfect matchup situation noting a 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) record when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. more than 80%) over the last 2 seasons; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus excellent teams as defined by shooting more than 45% and with a defense of less than 42% over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Valpo is the better team in most categories besides shooting. They grab a HUGE 4 more offensive rebounds a game and 7.5 more total rebounds per game than St. Mary's. They get one more block a game and swipe 2 more steals a game as well. Valpo's overall defensive play is better than St. Mary's posting 2% less opponents effective FG percentage good for 8th BEST vs 24th best. Valpo shoots way better from the stripe compared to St. Mary's being ranked 65th and 197th respectively. Valpo will grab more than enough second chance rebounds this game to make up for St. Mary's excellent shooting. They won't buckle under the pressure like St. Mary's last loss by 10 points to Gonzaga which is also the last time until tonight St. Mary's was an underdog. Pick Valparaiso. |
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03-21-16 | Spurs -6 v. Hornets | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
25* graded play on San Antonio as they take on Charlotte in NBA action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Antonio will win this game by more than 8 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. San Antonio is a solid 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers this season; 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) when they grab 48 to 52 rebounds in a game this season; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points San Antonio is on fire coming off their big win over Golden State to dominate Charlotte whom just lost to Denver. The Spurs have significantly better numbers in PPG and opponents PPG which makes the difference in these two teams score margin a +10 in their favor. They score 7 more points in the paint than Charlotte. In fact San Antonio is ranked BEST or second best in the NBA in most statistical categories where as Charlotte is ranked in the teens and 20s. They are by far the better team here whether on the road or not. Pick San Antonio. |
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03-21-16 | George Washington v. Monmouth -3.5 | Top | 87-71 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
25* graded play on Monmouth as they take on George Washington in the 2nd round of the set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Monmouth will win this game by at least 7 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-28 ATS for 69% winners since 2010. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MONMOUTH) in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 85 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. GW is a money burning 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons. Monmouth is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Monmouth scores 4.3 more PPG this season than GW. George Washington may have a slight edge in effective FG percentage and turnover percentage, but it's ONLY by less than a quarter of 1%. Monmouth has a huge 4% less opponents effective FG percentage against them. Monmouth is 11th in the country in opponents shooting percentage only allowing 39.2%. They are also a high 18th ranked in 2nd half points per game and a highly ranked 13th in swiping 8.3 steals per game. These are significant advantages for Monmouth in this game they will utilize to prove the better team. Pick Monmouth. |
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03-20-16 | St. Joe's +6.5 v. Oregon | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
25* graded play on St. Josephs as they take on Oregon in the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that STJ will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. STJ is a solid 15-2 against the money line (+13.9 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 7-1 against the money line (+7.3 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 7-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) in road games when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game this season; 13-1 against the money line (+11.7 Units) when they have the around same number of rebounds as their opponents in a game this season; 15-1 against the money line (+15.8 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Further, STJ is 9-2 against the money line (+8.3 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing |
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03-20-16 | Hawaii v. Maryland -7 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
25* graded play on Maryland as they take on Hawaii in 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 7:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Maryland will win this game by at least 10 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-20 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1997. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HAWAII) after 4 or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Maryland is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Maryland is a stout 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 144.5 since 1997; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better over the last 2 seasons. Turgeon is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5 and 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games facing teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season as the coach of MARYLAND. |
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03-20-16 | Middle Tennessee v. Syracuse -6.5 | Top | 50-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
25* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Middle Tennessee State in the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 6:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Syracuse will win this game by more than 10 points. I also have a 10* graded play ‘UNDER’ in this game. So, wager a 10* on the Total playing ‘UNDER’ and then add a 5* parlay with Syracuse and the ‘under’. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 52-20 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1997. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) after 4 or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament. Supportig the ‘UNDER’ is a soplid system sporting a 34-14 mark good for 71% winners since 1997. Play ‘under’ with neutral court teams against the total (MIDDLE TENN ST) after going over the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MTST is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; Syracuse is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 43-18 ATS (+23.2 Units) in road games when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997. |
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03-20-16 | Celtics v. 76ers +11 | Top | 120-105 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Philadelphia 76ers as they take on the Boston Celtics in NBA action set to start at 6:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that 76ers will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at winning the game.Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 22* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-12 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1996. Play on home underdogs of 10 or more points (PHILADELPHIA) revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is just 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. With a total of 215, it is very likely that both teams will exceed the century mark on the scoreboard. 76ers are a solid money making 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog this season. |
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03-20-16 | Stephen F Austin +1.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
25* graded play on Stephen F Austin as they take on Notre Dame in Rd Action set to start at 2:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SFA will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. HOWEVER, you are probably not going to get the minimum money line required of +140 to validate this combination wager. If, it is not at or above +1`40, then simply wager a 25* play using the line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is a money losing 36-86 ATS (-58.6 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997; 38-66 ATS (-34.6 Units) when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game since 1997; 26-54 ATS (-33.4 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. Further, ND head coach Brey is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) after a game where they were called for 10 or less fouls. Fundamental Discussion Points I’ll be brief, SFA is the better team at both ends of the court and this takes into consideration that SOS each team played this season. SFA is one of the most efficient offenses in the nation and the lack of any disruptive defense ND force, will be highly exploited by SFA. |
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03-20-16 | Iowa v. Villanova -7 | Top | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on Villanova as they take on Iowa in the second round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 12:10 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game by 9 or more points. I personally believe Villanova was truly hosed as a 2-seed having to play Iowa, who was ranked as high as third in the nation in polls and then with a win face Miami (Fla) and then with a win face possibly No. overall tournament seed Kansas to with the South Region. I can’t recall the last time a regional champ had to face this gauntlet, but if there is a ever a team with the heart, focus, and determination, this Villanova squad is the one. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is just 20-52 ATS (-37.2 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997; 10-36 ATS (-29.6 Units) in road games when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997; ‘Nova is a very strong 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons; 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Iowa is coming off a somewhat unimpressive OT win against Temple. In that game they did have an impressive 3 turnovers for the entire game and Jok and Uthoff shot extremely well from beyond the arc. Villanova is much faster, quicker, smarter, and LONGER, than Temple and they will make these perimeter shots much more difficult to make. Arcidiacono. Think he wants this to be his last collegiate game? I agree. |
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03-19-16 | Connecticut v. Kansas -8 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on Kansas as they take on UCONN in the second round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 7:45 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas will win this game by at least 10 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas is a solid 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season; 2-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when they force 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season. |
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03-19-16 | Indiana +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
25* graded play on Indiana as they take on Kentucky in NCAA action set to start at 5:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Indiana will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 61-24 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1997. Play on an underdog (INDIANA) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Hoosiers are a rock solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game this season; 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season; Kentucky is a horrid 4-22 ATS (-20.2 Units) in road games when they allow 81 to 86 points in a game since 1997; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games when they allow 81 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Indiana is a great offensive scoring team and their goal will be to push the tempo knowing the faster they play, the better their chances against Kentucky. Speed in combining ball passing and movement and looking for fast break attacks neutralizes Kentucky’s length and also wears them down physically. Kentucky scores too and dominate pain 2-point scoring. They truly do not have a perimeter 3-point presence and this will allow Indiana to pack in a zone and force the issue. Missed Kentucky shots will almost assuredly lead to fast break attacks by the Hoosiers. As the technical indicate, if Indiana scores 81 or more that alone will go a long way to them defeating the Wildcats. |
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03-19-16 | UL-Lafayette v. Furman +2 | Top | 80-72 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
25* graded play on Furman as they take on Louisiana-Lafayette (LL) in the College Insiders Tournament set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Furman will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. The current line is Furman +2 and we need that to rise to +3 and 3 ½ in order to get a money line of +140 or higher. That +140 line is the MINIMUM required to validate the risk-reward profile of the combination wager. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LL is just 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game this season. Furman is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons; 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. Fundamental Discussion Points The numbers and statistics are skewed in LL's favor because Furman plays a much slower game pace. Furman is the better shooting team with a significant 2.3% higher effective FG percentage. Furman is 55th in the country in opponents points per 1st half only allowing 30.9 which is 5 points less than LL. Furman also has the edge in committing less fouls per game and shooting better from the stripe. Furman can slow it down and suffocate LL to victory. Pick Furman. |
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03-19-16 | Wichita State -2 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 57-65 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on Wichita State as they take on Miami (Fla) in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. When I run the algorithm and begin to see the results, nothing truly surprises me. However, this one did and I immediately caught myself thinking how could a ‘play-in’ team be FAVORED over a strong ACC 3-seed in Miami. There are solid reasons why Wichita State has the matchup advantages and will exploit them to get to the Sweet 16 Round. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Wichita State will win this game by 6 or more points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. WS is a solid 19-3 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 19-4 against the money line (+13.9 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 27-6 against the money line (+15.7 Units) facing low pressure defensive teams forcing |
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03-18-16 | Northern Iowa v. Texas -4 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
50* graded play on Texas as they take on UNI in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:50 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win the game by at least 8 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this play is a proven system posting 126-74 ATS good for 63% winners: PLAY ON neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (TEXAS) - after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers against opponent after a game committing 8 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons and they are 75-48 ATS (+22.2 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. Smart (Texas) is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers in all games he has coached since 1997. Fundamental Discussion Points Texas is the better team here on a neutral court site closer to home. They score 4 more PPG, grab 5 more rebounds a game, block shots 2 more times a game, allow 1% less effective FG percentage against, and have less turnovers per play than UNI. The more tested and experienced team against better competition will prevail. Pick Texas. |
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03-18-16 | Weber State +13 v. Xavier | Top | 53-71 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
25* graded play on Weber State as they take on Xavier in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:20 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Weber State (WS) will lose this game by fewer than 11 points and has a shot at pulling off the upset of the day. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 22.5* play using the line and a 2.5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Xavier is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons. WS a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. Rahe is 54-31 ATS (+19.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making more than 45% of their shots after 15+ games as the coach of WS. Fundamental Discussion Points For a spread so high Weber State is only +4 less than Xavier in score margin for the season. WS shoots 3.5% effective FG percentage better, and allow less than Xavier in opponents effective FG percentage against. They don't make as many mistakes as Xavier does which is vitally important in tournament games, as WS commits 2 less fouls per game. Something must be said about their 16th best ranking in effective FG percentage and 9th best in shooting two point percentage. Xavier doesn't exactly play in BIG-12 or ACC competition wise and faltered in big games down the stretch losing twice to Seton Hall and also at Creighton. Weber State played good ball down the stretch and will carry that into this tournament game. Pick Weber State. |
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03-18-16 | Warriors v. Mavs +9 | Top | 130-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
25* graded play on Dallas as they take on Golden State in NBA action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than 8 points.Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-22 mark using the money line for 73% winners and has made 30 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play against road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) after 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’, in a game involving two horrible defensive teams allowing more than 102 PPG after 42+ games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is a solid 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home games when they score 105 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons. GS is an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games this season. Fundamental Discussion Points The Warriors resume their pursuit of 73 wins Friday night when they take on the Dallas Mavericks at the scene of one of their six defeats. Despite all the success, Kerr says his team is beginning to wear down. He's taking precautions to slow that process, limiting practice time and picking spots to give guys rest. The Mavs do have some edges in statistical categories against GS. Dallas is 4th best in the NBA in forcing opponents fouls per play with a significant 3% higher rate. Once they get to the line they're fourth best in sinking FTs at almost 80%. The Mavs themselves don't make mistakes as they are BEST with only 12.8 turnovers a game and seventh best in personal fouls per play. GS ranks in the 20s in those categories. Dallas will score enough and take advantage of Golden State's mistakes. Pick Dallas. |
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03-18-16 | Temple v. Iowa -7.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -103 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
25* graded play on Iowa as they take on Temple in First Round action set to start at as they take on set to start at 3:10 PM ET, Friday Match 18. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Iowa will win this game by more than 10 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Temple is just 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in road games when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. McCaffery is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls as the coach of Iowa. Dunphy is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in first round tournament games in all games he has coached since 1997. Fundamental Discussion Points First off Iowa has a +8 better score margin than Temple against better competition. They have 3 more assists a game, grab 2 more rebounds a game, and shoot 5% effective FG percentage better than Temple. Iowa also blocks 1 more time a game and wipes the ball for 1 more steal a game. Iowa will dominate the boards, shoot way better and create more turnovers to crush Temple. Pick Iowa. |
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03-18-16 | North Carolina-Asheville v. Villanova -17.5 | Top | 56-86 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
25* graded play on Villanova as they take on UNC-Asheville in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 12:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game by at least 20 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Villanova is a solid 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons; 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 3 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Since making it to the Final-4 in 2009, Villanova is just 3-5 in the NCAA Tournament. Last year they exited early in a very tough loss to NC State after getting the No. 1 seed for the first time in school history. Ryan Arcidiacono is the heart and soul of this team and is the only freshman captain under Wright’s tenure. He truly gets what being in the moment means and not allowing any adversity during a game, or from a game last week, or from last year’s loss, to have any impact on the current situation. This leadership will be a major reason why Villanova gets to the Final-4 and a possible National Championship. Take Villanova |
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03-17-16 | Providence v. USC +2 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
25* graded play on USC as they take on Providence in the first round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:50 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Make certain you get at least +140 for the money line portion. If it is not there, then simply wager a 25* play using the line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Providence has been a money burning 24-47 ATS (-27.7 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. USC is a solid 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game since 1997; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game this season; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. USC is also in a favorable matchup situation noting they are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points After considering both teams different competition this season take note of these statistical categories USC is far ahead of Providence in. USC has a +2 higher score differential this season. They grab 3 more rebounds a game, have 4% better effective FG percentage, and allow 1.5% less opponents effective FG percentage. USC also blocks the ball 2 more times a game than Providence. So a higher score margin against tougher opponents, more rebounds, better shooting, and better defense will help USC win this game. Pick USC. |
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03-17-16 | Stony Brook +14.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 57-85 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
25* graded play on Stony Brook as they take on Kentucky in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 9:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SB will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a low probability of actually pulling off the upset against the Giant. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 23* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SB is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after a win by 6 points or less; Head Coach Pikiell is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. Fundamental Discussion Points Stony Brook in most statistical categories is only 1 unit away from Kentucky. They are only half of one percent different than Kentucky in effective FG percentage. They grab 1 more defensive rebound a game and vastly outrank Kentucky in defensive rebounding percentage being 20th and 263rd respectively. In the tournament it's vitally important to make less mistakes and Stony Brook commits 4 less fouls per game than Kentucky ranking 16th and 250th respectively. They are also only half a turnover per game more than Kentucky. Interestingly this is a matchup of Kentucky, 25th ranked in PPG, and Stony Brook, 25th ranked in opponents PPG. These teams are much closer and will make a much closer game than predicted. Pick Stony Brook. |
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03-17-16 | Chattanooga v. Indiana -12 | Top | 74-99 | Win | 100 | 33 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on Indiana as they take on Tennessee Chattanooga in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Indiana is a dark horse wager to win the Tournament and I would suggest making a 3* wager on them. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Indiana will win this game by 15 or more points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UT is just 25-59 ATS (-39.9 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots. Indiana is a solid 60-27 ATS (+30.3 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. Fundamental Discussion Points Tennessee Chattanooga ATS has lost their last 6 games. Indiana scores 8 more points per game than Chattanooga this season. Indiana posts 7% more effective FG percentage and allows less opponents effective FG percentage against than Chattanooga. Indiana grabs a significant 2.4 more rebounds per game as well. Indiana ranks 2nd in the country in effective FG percentage and 3rd in both shooting percentage and 1st half points per game. Chattanooga in defense of opponents in those categories are ranked 170th, 177th, and 57th. Then consider Indiana has faced way better competition than Chattanooga. Indiana can out shoot anyone and will easily do that in this first round game. Pick Indiana. |
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03-17-16 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Purdue -9 | Top | 85-83 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
25* graded play on Purdue as they take on UA-Little Rock (UALR) set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Purdue will win this game by at least 14 points. Purdue is also one of my Cinderella dark horses to win the whole thing. I have seen them at 30:1 odds and I think it is certainly worth a 3* amount. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UALR is just 21-47 ATS (-30.7 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game; 22-55 ATS (-38.5 Units) when they grab 10+ fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game. Purdue is a stout 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game this season; 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Purdue is 9th in the country in score margin this season in better competition than UALR has faced. UALR scores only a flat 70 PPG this season which is near the bottom of rankings overall. Purdue shoots 1.5% better effective FG percentage and allows 1% less opponents effective FG percentage. Purdue grabs 7.2 more rebounds per game than UALR. In neutral court games always go with the team that commits the least amount of mistakes where Purdue vastly outranks UALR in committing way less fouls per game. In most categories UALR ranks around the 160s and sometimes in the 220s as compared to Purdue ranking in the 70s up to the 40s in the country in a lot of statistical categories. Also consider these rankings with the type of competition UALR had and Purdue had. Gives Purdue a big chance to blowout this game. Pick Purdue. |
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03-17-16 | Yale +6 v. Baylor | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
25* graded play on Yale as they take on Baylor in the first round of the NCAA Tournament set to start at 2:45 PM ET, St. Patrick’s Day. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Yale will win the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Yale is a solid 10-2 against the money line (+13.2 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+6.0 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game this season; 14-3 against the money line (+17.2 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons; Baylor is just 4-10 against the money line (-12.4 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 2-7 against the money line (-9.2 Units) in road games when they make 31% to 37% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons. ATS situations show that Yale is a perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 3 seasons. Baylor is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Baylor struggles with its consistency at times this season. They are 6-5 as an away team, though they are deemed a home team in this game, they are much farther from home than Yale. Yale is coming in hot on a 5 game win streak against Baylor losing their last game. Yale is 16th in the country in allowing only 63.5 opponents points per game. They are better at rebounding than Baylor, grabbing 4 more per game and they are 3rd in the country only allowing opponents 29 rebounds a game against them. Yale shoots a significant 1% effective FG percentage better and allows 5% less opponents effective FG percentage against. Yale is 7th in the country grabbing over 12 offensive rebounds good for the second chances they need this game to win. They shoot and rebound way better than Baylor so they can win this game. Pick Yale. |
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03-16-16 | Knicks +16 v. Warriors | Top | 85-121 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Knicks as they take on the Warriors in NBA action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Knicks will lose this game by less than 14 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 23.5* play using the line and a 1.5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-18 over the last 5 seasons good for 72% winners: PLAY ON road teams (NEW YORK) - revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Knicks are 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season and 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. New York is 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more since 1996. Fundamental Discussion Points Golden State may limit the minutes of their starters once they see this game is in hand which has cost them ATS this season. They win the games but are 7-10 ATS in their last 17 and it's the games like against the Sixers, Lakers, and Magic that make one consider Golden State lets teams cover the spread. In this matchup The Knicks are BEST in the NBA from the line shooting over 80% free throws and the Warriors do commit 1 more foul per game than the Knicks. Also, we know GS is excellent at shooting 3s, but the Knicks are good at defending the 3 only allowing opponents 33% from beyond the arc. As good as Golden State is, the Knicks do have these advantages to cover this game. Pick New York Knicks. |
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03-16-16 | Montana +4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
25* graded play on Montana as they take on Nevada in the first round of the CBI Tournament set to start at 10:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Montana will win this game and are currently installed as 4 ½ point dogs. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting an incredible 24-2 ATS mark good for 92.3% ATS winners since 1997. Play on a home team (NEVADA) that is a team from a second tier division 1-A conference and now facing a team from a weak conference, off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Nevada is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, Nevada is a money burning 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. |
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03-16-16 | Bucknell v. Monmouth -8 | Top | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
25* graded play on Monmouth as they take on Bucknell in NIT First Round action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Monmouth was certainly snubbed with their 27 wins and their awesome bench celebration displays from the NCAA Tournament. This is a program on the rise in New Jersey and are 3xtremely well coached. I do not believe we will see a drop-off in focus in this game simply cause of a possible hangover from losing the Conference Championship game to Iona and then being snubbed. If anything, it is a motivating coaching opportunity. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Monmouth is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they score 81 to 86 points in a game this season; 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game this season. Looking at matchup situations, Monmouth is an outstanding 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Monmouth is the vastly better team in both sides of the court. Monmouth ranks 29th in the nation IN SCORING OFFENSE AVERAGING 79.4 PPG. BUCKNELL FILLS THE HOOP TOO RANKING 46TH SCORING 78 PPG, BUT THERE IS NO TRUE DEFENSIVE PRESENCE. BUCKNELL RANKS JUST 212TH IN SCORING DEFENSE ALLOWING 74 PPG. Monmouth ranks 10th best in free throw percentage while Bucknell is a dismal 106th. So, Monmouth is certainly the right side. |
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03-16-16 | Texas-Arlington v. Savannah State +13.5 | Top | 75-59 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
25* graded play on Savanah State as they take on Texas-Arlington in the First Round of the College Insider Tournament set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SS will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a slight probability to win the game.Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 23* play using the line and a 2* play using the money line. If No money line is available then simply wager a 25* amount on the line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TA is just 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games when they force 14 to 18 turnovers in a game this season. Further, looking at the matchup situations TA is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. TA head coach is an imperfect Cross is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite. |
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03-15-16 | New Mexico State v. St. Mary's -12 | Top | 56-58 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
25* graded play on St. Mary’s as they take on New Mexico State in the first round of the NIT set to start at 11:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that STM will win this game by more than 18 points. It is remarkable that STM was overlooked by the selection committee. Add Monmouth to that shocking list as well. STM is 27-5 and 18-1 in home games for the season. Repeat their record to yourself and out loud for reinforcement. Then look up Michigan and repeat the same. Point is that, I truly believe that STM will play the entire tournament with a huge chip on it’s shoulder. Perhaps the biggest chip in the history of the Tournament snubs. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. St. Mary's is a solid 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 season and 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. They are also perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games this season. They have a history of doing well as Bennett is 46-16 ATS (+28.4 Units) after a combined score of 155 points or more as the coach of ST Mary's. Fundamental Discussion Points St. Mary's dominates most of the statistical categories in this matchup against New Mexico State. They shoot a staggering 9% effective FG percentage better than NM State. In fact they are #1 in the country in shooting % and effective FG percentage. STM also turns it over 4% less, allow opponents 2 less PPG, and allow opponents 2% less effective FG percentage than NM State. They don't make any mistakes for opponents to capitalize on as they are 7th in the country with only 15 fouls per game and 6th in the country only committing 9.5 turnovers a game. St. Mary's will dominate and easily win this game. Pick St. Mary's. |
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03-15-16 | Florida v. North Florida +7.5 | Top | 97-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
25* graded play on North Florida as they tajke on Florida in the First Round of the NIT set to start at as they take on set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. North Florida is a solid shooting team and the projections call for them to rain in threes making 40% of them in the process. This will spread the Florida defense and allow far more room for scoring opportunities in the paint. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Florida is just 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) when they allow 81 to 86 points in a game since 1997; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 81 or more points in a game this season. Further, Florida has not been good to backers of road games sporting an unenviable 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997. Fundamental Discussion Points It is a fact that NF plays a less difficult schedule than the SEC schedule faced by Florida. However, you cannot argue that NF is a high powered offense that ranks 4th in the nation scoring 83.4 PPG and ninth in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.509). NF defense stats are skewed given this high pace of play, but Florida will not be able to take advantage of that weakness. Florida ranks just 112th in assist-to-turnover ration (1.144) and 193rd in assist-FG made ratio (0.513), and 284th in shooting efficiency, and 332nd in free throw percentage. Take North Florida. |
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03-15-16 | Raptors v. Bucks +2 | Top | 107-89 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
25* graded play on Milwaukee as they host Toronto in NBA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Milwaukee will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. You must get +140 on the money line though to validate the risk-reward profile of the combination wager. If not, then simply wager a 25* amount on the line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons, good for 79.5% winners: PLAY ON underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toronto is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season and they are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season. The Bucks are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game this season. They're also a solid 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers this season. Fundamental Discussion Points A significant injury for Toronto as Jonas Valanciunas left the game yesterday, and is not expected to return tonight. The Bucks get a significant 8 more points in the paint a game than the Raptors. In effective FG percentage and opponents effective FG percentage these two teams are less than 1% off from each other. In fact Milwaukee is 5th in the NBA in flat shooting percentage. Toronto lost last night and will be going up against Milwaukee who is fresh off a day's rest and a win at Brooklyn. Pick Milwaukee. |
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03-15-16 | Fairleigh Dickinson +6 v. Florida Gulf Coast | Top | 65-96 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
25* graded play on Farleigh Dickinson as they take on Florida Gulf Coast in the NCAA Tournament ‘First Four’ play-in games set to start at 6:40 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FD will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at making it into the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-29 mark good for 54% winners, BUT has made a whopping 33.5 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against any team (FLA GULF COAST) good defensive team (40-42.5%) against a poor defensive team (45-47.5%), and is a hot shooting team with 3 straight games making more than 50% of their shots. This system has averaged a +175 DOG play and shows that by identifying DOGS that win SU better than 50% of the time produce huge profits over time. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. FGC head coach Dooley is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival in all games he has coached. Fundamental Discussion Points Farleigh Dickinson has a higher PPG mark, a better effective FG percentage, 2 more assists a game, and grab more steals a game than FGC. In the rest of the statistical categories these two teams are pretty close. FD is better than a +6 in this game on a neutral site and will make this very close. Pick Farliegh Dickinson. |
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03-14-16 | Wolves v. Suns | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on Phoenix as they take on Minnesota in NBA action set to start at 9:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Phoenix will win this game by more than 5 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 over the last 5 seasons good for 84% winners: PLAY ON All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - off a road loss against opponent off a road win by 3 points or less. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a poor 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season; 35-59 ATS (-29.9 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is a solid 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when they make 71% to 77% of their free throws in a game this season. Fundamental Discussion Points The Phoenix Suns hung in against the league's best team in their latest game and will try to bounce back with a fourth consecutive home victory over the Timberwolves on Monday night. Phoenix at home is 3-1 straight up against Minnesota over the last 3 seasons. The Sun's Brandon Knight made seven 3-pointers and scored 25 points in a 108-101 home win over the Timberwolves on Dec. 13. He had 20 points in a 117-87 defeat at Minnesota on Jan. 17.The Suns grab a significant 3 more rebounds a game and 2 more points in the paint than the Timberwolves. Besides that these teams are within 1 unit of each other in the other statistical categories. Phoenix plays better against Minnesota at home and has the edge with second chance rebounds in this matchup. Pick Phoenix. |
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03-14-16 | Mavs +7 v. Hornets | 107-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
25* graded play on Dallas as they take on Charlotte in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by less than 6 points and have a great shot at a needed win. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 1996. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) good offensive team scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games. Here is a second and most amazing and powerful system that has gone 35-44 for just 44% winners, BUT has made 39.4 units/unit wagered averaging a +238 DOG play. This system reflects the power of the dog and playing dogs in the form of combination wagers over the course of a season. The win % matters essentially nothing when using the money line and units won is reflective of true overall performance. Play on underdogs vs the money line (DALLAS) after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Dallas is 104-58 ATS (+40.2 Units) in road games when they score 99 to 104 points in a game; 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in game. s where they commit 12 or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons; Charlotte is just 86-136 ATS (-63.6 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game. Charlotte is just 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games facing weaker rebounding teams outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. |
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03-13-16 | Purdue +4.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
25* graded play on Purdue as they take on Michigan State in the Big Ten Conference Tournament set to start at 3:00 PM ET SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Purdue will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Seeing +170 levels and higher, which is certainly higher than the +140 mandated by the ROI analysis. With a STJ win, the 25* combination wager returns 28.5* profit. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game this season; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season. Further, we see that the previous similar matchups favors Purdue noting they are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams making >=41% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points > Despite what many media publications and telecasts would tell you, these teams are equals across the large majority of metrics. Playing on a neutral court makes this a pick-em game based on the metrics. Purdue, though will have a significant edge in free throws attempted and made by at least 5 and this is truly what gives the edge to Purdue. Rebounding will be a slight edge to Purdue where they will have more multi-shot possessions than MSU. This in turn, leads to more shot attempts and more chances to score. Take the Boilermakers. |
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03-13-16 | St. Joe's +4.5 v. VCU | Top | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
25* graded play on St. Joes as they take on Virginia Commonwealth in the A-10 Championship game set to start at 12:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that St. Joes will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Seeing +170 levels, which is certainly higher than the +140 mandated by the ROI analysis. With a STJ win, the 25* combination wager returns 28.5* profit. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. STJ is a solid 13-2 against the money line (+11.1 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 7-1 against the money line (+7.3 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 12-2 against the money line (+10.0 Units) when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game this season; 6-1 against the money line (+5.9 Units) in road games when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game this season; 14-1 against the money line (+14.4 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points STJ is one of the best ball handling teams in the nation. They rank 13th best in the nation with a 1.482 assist-to-turnover ratio. Further, STJ ranks 13th best averaging just 10.1 turnovers per game. This is a critical matchup as VCU loves to bring pressure and create turnovers to generate easy scores in fast break situations. They rank 14th best forcing opponents into 15.5 turnovers per game. STJ will control the tempo and the ball and this will be the key metric why STJ will win the A-10 Championship. |
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03-12-16 | Suns +18 v. Warriors | Top | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Phoenix Suns as they take on the Golden State Warriors in NBA action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Phoenix will lose this game by fewer than 19 points. There is literally 0% probability of the Suns winning the game, so simply wager a 25* amount on the line. Normally, given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons good for 67.3% winners: PLAY AGAINST home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, on Saturday games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Phoenix is a solid 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when they make 71% to 77% of their free throws in a game this season. Here is a shocker. GS is a near-imperfect 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) facing poor teams that are outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Phoenix is 6-5 against the spread versus Golden State over the last 3 seasons. Golden State does dial it back when they face poor teams. Let us not forget the Lakers beat them under a week ago. They also almost lost to lowly Philly in their last meeting with them. They lost against the spread to Phoenix a month ago and lost against the spread to the Magic under a week ago as well. Also the fact is this spread is the same as the point differential of the two teams being only 18 points. With it being later in the season, the Warriors could rest Curry and others as this game looks in hand as it continues. GS may score a ton of points, but they also allow a ton of points. Phoenix can stay in this game as Golden State takes it easy. Pick Phoenix. |
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03-12-16 | Virginia +1.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 57-61 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
50* graded play on UVA as they take on North Carolina in the ACC Championship Final set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UVA will win this game outright. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 41* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line. Make certain though that you get at least a +140 level on the money line portion to validate the ROI of the combination wager. If not, then simply wager a 50* amount using the line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. UVA is a near perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game this season. Virginia is also 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. North Carolina is a bad 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more this season and only 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Virginia has allowed only five opponents to score 70 points this season - only two in the last 18 games. The most recent was North Carolina, however Virginia still won and won ATS. Virginia is 3-1 ATS versus North Carolina over the last 3 seasons. UVA has a significant 2.8% edge over UNC in effective shooting percentage. Virginia allows 10.3 less PPG than N Carolina making them 2nd best in the country. UNC may post high numbers and rank high with their offense, but Virginia ranks higher in those same categories when it comes to allowing opponents stats against. The proof is in these teams last meeting a few weeks ago. Virginia will suffocate out UNC's offense and they will beat the Tarheels. Pick Virginia. |
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03-12-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -8.5 | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
25* graded play on the San Antonio Spurs as they host the OKC Thunder in NBA action set to start at 8:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that San Antonio will win this game by more than 11 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Spurs are a solid 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers this season; 5-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) when they commit 6+ fewer turnovers than their opponents over the last 3 seasons; 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when they grab 48 to 52 rebounds in a game this season; 17-2 ATS (+14.8 Units) when they score 110 or more points in a game this season. OKC has been a miserable 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points OKC may be #2 in points per game, but they're facing the Spurs who are #1 in only allowing 92 opponents points per game. Not only does San Antonio defend better, but they also shoot better ranking 2nd in the NBA shooting over 53% effective FG perecentage. Most dominantly they are the BEST in opponents FG percentage only allowing 47.1% against them. They suffocate offenses also ranking 1st in first quarter, 2nd quarter, and the 1st half opponents points. They are BEST in free throw percentage capitalizing on their opponents mistakes and are BEST in not making the mistakes only fouling 17 times a game. San Antonio is by far the better team, especially playing with their excellent defense they will suffocate and dominate the Thunder. Pick San Antonio. |
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03-12-16 | Michigan v. Purdue -7.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
25* graded play on Purdue as they take on Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Purdue will win this game by at least 7 points. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Michigan upset a very strong Indiana Hoosiers team, but that isn’t all that great of news for this game. Michigan is a miserable 1-5 ATS off a road upset win this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Purdue is one of those Cinderella ‘madness’ teams that could win the Tournament, but first they must advance to the Big TEN Final to ensure themselves of the highest seed possible in the Big Dance. They blew out Illinois yesterday and with that came significant rest for the team’s core players. Rest is a huge factor in Conference Tournament action as it marks the only time during the season where teams must play on back-to-back days and sometimes have to play three straight games. Purdue has several matchup advantages, but none bigger than in rebounding. Michigan ranks 312th in total rebounds per game (32) while Purdue ranks 10th best (41.2). Purdue is the second best team in the nation defending their glass getting 28 rebounds per game. Michigan is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams getting just 6.8 per game that ranks 328th in the nation. Purdue will limit Michigan to one shot possessions and this will be a big reason Purdue wins this game easily. |
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03-12-16 | LSU v. Texas A&M -6 | Top | 38-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on LSU in the SEC Semifinals set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game by at least nine points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season; 41-15 ATS (+24.5 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game; 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons. Further, the past matchups have not served LSU well noting they are just 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games facing good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Fundamental Discussion Points These teams split during the season with the Aggies posting a victory Jan.19th. Texas A&M moves the ball better ranking 9th with over 17 assists per game. Both teams have almost the exact same effective FG percentage, however A&M allows 3.2% less effective FG percentage against them than LSU does. TAMU blocks better, has less turnovers, less fouls, better shooting from 3, better shooting from the free throw line, and more 1st half points per game than LSU. With so much pressure on Simmons to get LSU to the NCAA tournament, Texas A&M can exploit their better team play and soundly beat LSU. Pick Texas A&M. |
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03-11-16 | Blazers +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-128 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
25* graded play on Portland as they take on Golden State in NBA action set to start at 10:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Portland will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has an outside shot to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 22.5* play using the line and a 2.5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 157-97 ATS since 1996 good for 62% winners: PLAY ON road teams (PORTLAND) - excellent offensive team (greater than 102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (greater than 102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Portland is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season; 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) in up-tempo games where they attempt 84 or more shots this season. The Trail Blazers are 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game this season and 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers put Golden State's streak to the test Friday night after dominating the league's most dominant team a few weeks ago. Of the Warriors' six losses, the most lopsided came in Portland as Lillard had the game of his life. The Oakland native had a career-high 51 points, seven assists and six steals in a 137-105 victory Feb. 19, snapping Golden State's 11-game win streak. Portland does outrank Golden State in a number of statistical categories they can use to keep pace with the Warriors. They grab more second chance offensive rebounds and more total rebounds than the Warriors. The Blazers commit less turnovers, allow less points in the paint, and allow less points per game than Golden State. Also the Warriors don't have any advantage as far as being pretty equal with Portland in fouling, free throws and three pointers. Portland is 4th in the NBA in threes made per game so they can keep pace with Golden State. Pick Portland. |
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03-11-16 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 47-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Notre Dame in the ACC semifinals set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNC will win this game by at least 11 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. North Carolina is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in quicker paced games where they attempt 63 to 69 shots over the last 2 seasons; 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Williams is 185-159 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of N Carolina. Fundamental Discussion Points North Carolina scores 7 points more per game than Notre Dame. They also grab 5 more rebounds and have 5 more assists each game better than Notre Dame. UNC sinks 31 FGs a game good for 2nd best in the country where ND is ranked a lowly 203rd in allowing opponents FGs made per game. UNC is 6th in the country in scoring 39.8 points in 1st halves this season going against ND's poor 254th ranking in allowing opponents 1st half points. North Carolina is the clear better team and will take advantage of their shooting, rebounding, ball movement, and team play to beat up on Notre Dame on this neutral court. Pick North Carolina. |
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03-11-16 | Florida +4 v. Texas A&M | Top | 66-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
25* graded play on Florida as they take on Texas A&M in SEC Conference Tournament action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that they will win the game and advance to the Semifinals. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. A&M is just 2-7 against the money line (-8.8 Units) in road games when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. So, the projected pace of play will favor and be controlled by Florida in this game. Further, we see that days off and rest has not served A&M well as they are an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. Kennedy is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season as the coach of TEXAS A&M. Fundamental Discussion Points Florida is the better rebounding team at both ends of the court. Most importantly, their ability to defend their glass will limit A&M multi-shot possessions, which is a major key to Florida getting the much-needed win. |
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03-11-16 | Michigan v. Indiana -7 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
25* graded play on Indiana as they take on Michigan in the Quarterfinal Round of the Big Ten Conference Tournament set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Indiana will win this game by 10 or more points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Michigan is just 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; Indiana is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game this season. Michigan is a money burning 13-53 ATS (-45.3 Units) when they allow 81 or more points in a game since 1997. Looking at the matchups, Indiana has played very weel against similar style teams. Hoosiers are a solid 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Breaking this done further, we note that Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Indiana has not gained much respect at all despite winning the regular season conference tile and being one of the best shooting teams in the nation. Adding to that, is the fact that they have to play three straight days to win the Tournament Title, despite being the top-seed. They are coming into this game with four days rest and based on published reports, the team is squarely focused on playing one game at a time, which has served them quite well this season. Indian ranks 10th in the nation scoring offense at 83 PPG, and BEST with a 1.221 shooting efficiency quotient. Indiana is a complete offensive attack and can score from anywhere on the court. However, Michigan lives and dies essentially by the ‘three’ and Indiana will have enough defense to defend that perimeter well. Take Indiana. |
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03-10-16 | UC Riverside +8 v. Long Beach State | Top | 74-82 | Push | 0 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
25* graded play on UC-Riverside as they take on Long Beach State in WCC Conference action set to start at 11:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCR will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at advancing in this Tournament. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCR is 9-5 against the money line (+19.6 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. Long Beach State is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Long Beach is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. Monson is 20-41 ATS (-25.1 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite as the coach of Long Beach. Fundamental Discussion Points UC-Riverside is 4-2 against the spread versus Long Beach State over the last 3 seasons. UCR allows a significant 3.5 less opponents PPG than Long Beach. Long Beach allows 3% better effective shooting percentage against them. In fact they are a bad 252nd ranking allowing 51.5% opponents effective FG percentage. UCR can keep pace with Long Beach in this game much like do in most statistical categories. Pick UC-Riverside. |
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03-10-16 | Suns v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
25* graded play on Denver as they take on Phoenix in NBA action set to start at 9:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by more than 10 points. SIm projects huge disparities in free throws and turnovers in this matchup. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-10 ATS over the last 5 seasons good for 74.4% winners: PLAY ON any team (DENVER) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Denver is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game this season. Phoenix is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Phoenix is a poor 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Phoenix will have at least 6 more turnovers while shooting at least 8 fewer free throws. So, points off turnovers and from the foul line will see Denver with a huge advantage. Denver's Will Barton has averaged 18 points while hitting 10 of 20 from 3-point range and pulling down 8.3 rebounds in his last four meetings with the Suns. Denver will dominate this game. Pick Denver. |
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03-10-16 | Penn State +6 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Ohio State in Second Round Big Ten Conference action set to start at 6:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. So, if your wagering discipline with my methodology is to wager $10 per * unit, then you would be placing a $200 amount on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I also have a 10* play ‘OVER’ in this game. So, I would recommend playing the 10* amount on the total and then add NO MORE THAN a 5* amount on a parlay using the ‘OVER” and PSU. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-3 ATS mark good for 90% winners since 2010. Play ‘OVER’ with neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (PENN ST) and is a below average shooting team hitting between 40 and 42.5% and is now facing a good defensive team allowing between 40 and 42.5%, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game differential. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. OSU is just 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 3 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing |
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03-10-16 | Butler -3.5 v. Providence | Top | 60-74 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
25* graded play on Butler as they take on Providence in BIG EAST action set to start at 2:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Butler will win this game by at least 7 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 1997. Play on neutral court teams (BUTLER) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite.The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Butler is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games attempting around the same number of free throws as opponents over the last 2 seasons. Butler is a solid 65-32 ATS (+29.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997. Cooley is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite as the coach of Providence. Fundamental Discussion Points Butler and Providence have close numbers in opponents PPG against, but Butler has a 7.1 PPG average better than Providence. This is due to the fact Butler shoots 2.5% effective FG percentage better. Butler doesn't make mistakes as they are ranked 16th in the country only committing 10.3 turnovers a game and rank 8th best only committing 12.5% turnovers per play. Butler has a higher offensive and defensive rebounding percentage than Providence as well. In categories Providence has the advantage over Butler (very few) it's only by a marginal amount. Butler will revenge their earlier loss to Providence. Pick Butler. |
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03-10-16 | Northwestern +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
25* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Michigan in Second Round Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Northwestern will win this game and advance. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. However, you must make certain that you get +140 or higher on the money line to validate the ROI risk/reward profile. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. NW is a strong 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when their opponents make 38% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons; Michigan has been a wallet hurting 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Further, we see that NW is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing |
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03-09-16 | Florida International v. UTEP -2 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
25* graded play on UTEP as they take on Florida International in C-USA Tournament Round 2 action set to start at 9:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UTEP will win this game by at least 6 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this play is a proven system posting a 91-43 ATS mark good for 68% winners: PLAY AGAINST neutral court teams as an underdog (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UTEP is 86-57 ATS (+23.3 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days since 1997. Floyd is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) versus good shooting teams - making greater than 45% of their shots as the coach of UTEP. Fundamental Discussion Points UTEP shoots a solid 47.9% from the field and scores a solid 77.1 PPG versus common opponents with FIU. UTEP scores 5.2 more PPG than FIU. They also outrank FIU making 2 more three pointers a game. With FIU turning the ball over more than UTEP and UTEP grabbing more steals and rebounds, they can take advantage of this to win by more this game. Pick UTEP. |
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03-09-16 | Clippers v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Oklahoma City Thunder as they take on the LA Clippers set to start at 9:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OKC will win this game by at least 9 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clippers have been a money burning 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) in road games when they allow 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 72-193 ATS (-140.3 Units) when they grab 10+ fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1996; OKC is a rock solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games when they grab more than 58 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points The Clippers' Luc Mbah a Moute is expected to miss Wednesday vs. Oklahoma City for a Stinger. This is significant due to Blake Griffin being out indefinitely. OKC does rank higher than the Clippers at 2nd and sixth respectively in PPG. In fact they outrank them in ALL offensive categories. The Clippers are ranked second in a bunch of defensive categories, however with the aforementioned injuries to their forwards that ranking and their defense will decline. Oklahoma City can abuse that this game and come out on top easily. Pick Oklahoma City. |
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03-09-16 | Heat v. Bucks +3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
25* graded play on Milwaukee as they take on Miami in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Milwaukee will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Make certain you get at least +140 on the money line. If it is lower, then just wager a 25* amount on the line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-25 ATS for 69% winners since 2010. Play against road favorites (MIAMI) hot team having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Milwaukee is a solid 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Kidd is 45-22 ATS (+20.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog as the coach of Milwaukee. Miami is a money losing 15-38 ATS (-26.8 Units) when they make 25% to 31% of their three point attempts in a game and 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points The Heat's Hassan Whiteside is probable Wednesday vs. Milwaukee due to an Illness. If he does play that could effect his play negatively. He's a big part of the defensive advantage Miami would have in this game. The Bucks score better offensively than the Heat and grab more second chance offensive rebounds. Look for the Heat to not play as well defensively and allow the Bucks to score more and win. Pick Milwaukee. |
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03-09-16 | Syracuse +2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
25* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Pittsburgh in ACC Conference action set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Syracuse will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. You must get at least +140 on the money line to validate this combination wager. If it is not at that level, then just wager a 25* play on the line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Syracuse is a solid 19-7 against the money line (+13.9 Units) when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 14-7 against the money line (+9.8 Units) in games attempting around the same number of free throws as opponents over the last 3 seasons; 69-19 against the money line (+37.1 Units) when they make 72% to 78% of their free throws in a game since 1997. Syracuse is also a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Pitt has been a money burning 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Syracuse. |
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03-08-16 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff +4.5 v. Alabama A&M | Top | 53-61 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
25* graded play on Arkansas Pine Bluff as they take on Alabama A&M in the first round of the SWAC Conference Tournament set to start at 9:30 PM ETSIM algorithm shows a high probability that APB will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game and advancing to the second round of play. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ALAM is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 60 points; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after a combined score of 125 points or less. Fundamental Discussion Points Arkansas Pine Bluff is significantly better than Alabama A&M in blocks and steals per game averaging 2 more in both categories. APB also allows 1.5% less opponents effective FG percentage than ALAM. |
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03-08-16 | Boston College v. Florida State -13 | Top | 66-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
25* graded play on Florida State as they take on Boston College in the 1st Round of the ACC Tournament. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by more than 20 points. You may be able to get some alternative lines meaning that there will two sets of additional lines that are 7 points moved in either direction. In our case, you may se FSU lined at -20 +220. If you get these lines than consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the adjusted line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BC is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they attempt 13 or less free throws in a game this season; 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games when they grab 8 or less offensive rebounds in a game this season; FSU is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 68-33 ATS (+31.7 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. Fundamental Discussion Points Florida State is 2-0 ATS versus Boston College over the last 3 seasons. FSU dominates ALL statistical categories compared to Boston College. The following stats used are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to comparing these two teams. FSU shoots the ball way better at 4.5% effective FG percentage more than BC. FSU is 56th in the country with 77.5 PPG as BC is one of the worst teams at 342nd with only 61.1 PPG. Boston is the WORST team in the country in Free Throws attempted, FT made, and personal fouls caused at a very poor 15.6 a game. FSU will stomp on Boston College today easily. Pick Florida State. |
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03-08-16 | Wake Forest +5 v. NC State | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
25* graded play on Wake Forest as they take on North Carolina State in ACC Round 1 Tournament action set to start at 12:00 NOON. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Wake will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wake is a solid 52-26 ATS (+23.4 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game; NC State is a money burning 27-58 ATS (-36.8 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game . Plus, State is a near imperfect 1-7 against the money line (-7.4 Units) in road games when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Wake Forest moves the ball around better than NC State with 3.4 more assists per game more this season. Wake also shoots more than 1% effective FG percentage better and allow 1% less opponents effective FG percentage. They also significantly block and steal the ball better as well. Wake is ranked a high 49th in the country in causing fouls at 21.1 personal fouls a game committed. Wake Forest can press these advantages to come out on top this game. Pick Wake Forest. |
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03-07-16 | BYU +3 v. Gonzaga | Top | 84-88 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
25* graded play on BYU as they take on Gonzaga in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament set to start at 11:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will win this game outright. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. GONZAGA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Rose is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite as the coach of BYU. Fundamental Discussion Points These two teams met a little over a week ago with BYU losing by 3, but grabbing 2 more rebounds and turning the ball over less than Gonzaga. In general BYU gets more rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, PPG more and have a lower turnover rate than Gonzaga. Expect BYU to use those advantages this time around. Look for them to beat Gonzaga in the 2nd half especially as they are ranked 8th in 2nd half PPG and Gonzaga is only 111st in allowing opponents 2nd half PPG. Pick BYU. |
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03-07-16 | Spurs -7 v. Pacers | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
25* graded play on San Antonio as they take on Indiana in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Spurs will win this game by more than 10 points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Spurs are 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after playing a home game this season; 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) as a favorite this season. Fundamental Discussion Points San Antonio has 11+ better score margin than Indiana. San Antonio is 2nd in the NBA with a 53.5% effective FG percentage and BEST in the NBA only allowing 47.1% opponents effective FG percentage. Indiana is in the middle of the pack when it comes to those 2 categories. The Spurs are also BEST in the NBA in committing few fouls, 3 fouls per game fewer than Indiana. The Spurs excellent shooting and solid defensive play will stomp on the Pacers tonight. Pick San Antonio. |
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03-06-16 | Maryland v. Indiana -5.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
25* graded play on Indiana as they host Maryland in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 4:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Indiana will win this game by more than 8 points. Hoosiers finally getting a little more respect from the betting public, but they are still a vastly under rated team. They have a 14-3 record in a very difficult conference and still feel they have a ton of work ahead of them. I like this playing in the present mantra and looking forward at what still needs to be done. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Maryland is just 15-40 ATS (-29.0 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997; Indiana is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game this season; Maryland is 13-44 ATS (-35.4 Units) when they allow 81 to 86 points in a game since 1997 Fundamental Discussion Points You can see that the key metric is for Indiana to score more than 81 points. Indiana ranks 10th best in offensive scoring at 82.8 PPG, and an exceptional 5th best in three point shot percentage. They rank 3rd in overall shooting percentage at 50.2% and second best with a 1.220 shooting efficiency rating. Even though Maryland has an excellent defense, I just do not see them holding up against the Hoosiers, who can score from anywhere on the court, especially the three. Take Indiana. |
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03-05-16 | Jazz v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 106-94 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
35* graded play on New Orleans as they host Utah in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Pelicans will win this game. Line is currently at ‘pick-em’ and I don’t see the public betting flows moving this line to +3 that would be required to get +140 on the money line. If it did, then a 21* play on the line and 4* play using the money line would be validated as my ‘combination wager’ strategy. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 81-39 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a loss against a division rival. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah is a money burning 1-7 against the money line (-7.9 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Pelicans are a solid 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. |
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03-05-16 | North Carolina -2 v. Duke | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Duke in a HUGE ACC Showdown set to start at 6:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNC will win this game by at least five points. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in quicker paced games where they attempt 63 to 69 shots over the last 2 seasons. North Carolina is 14-4 against the spread at Duke since 1997. Interestingly Krzyzewski is a poor 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) in March games as the coach of Duke. Fundamental Discussion Points Duke shot a poor 36.5% in their last game a few days ago against Wake Forest. North Carolina's PPG, score margin, and PPG against all outrank Duke by a fair amount. UNC does outrank Duke in all the defensive categories I've seen. N Carolina allows a significant 2% less opponents effective FG percentage less than Duke. North Carolina grabs over 3 more rebounds a game than Duke. Duke has been winning despite playing essentially poor defense. Lack of solid rebounding on the defensive end also lends it self to just too many multi-shot possessions and UNC will exploit this tonight. Pick North Carolina. |
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03-05-16 | South Carolina +4.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 76-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
50* graded play on South Carolina as they take on Arkansas in SEC action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SC will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SC is a very strong 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season; 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) facing good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons; 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days since 1997. SC head coach Martin is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) facing good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game Fundamental Discussion Points SC is an excellent rebounding team ranking 13th averaging 41 boards per game. Arkansas defense ranks 236th allowing 37 boards per game and ranks 234th allowing 9.6 offensive boards per game. SC ranks 9th best getting 12.3 offensive boards per game. So, you can readily see that SC will dominate the glass and get far more multi-shot possessions than Arkansas. This is critical given that Arkansas does have shooters and they can score in bunches. I see SC controlling the flow and winning going away. |
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03-05-16 | Kansas State +5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
25* graded play on Kansas State as they take on Texas Tech in BIG-12 action set to start at 3:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that K-State will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-18 over the last 5 seasons good for 70.5% ATS: PLAY ON road teams as an underdog or pick (KANSAS ST) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off a road loss by 20 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas St is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. KSU is 4-1 straight up against Texas Tech over the last 3 seasons. Weber is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) after a blowout win by 20 points or more as the coach of Kansas St. Fundamental Discussion Points A unique game with KSU coming in off a blowout win and TTU coming in off a blowout loss. Texas Tech's loss comes off of WVU in which KSU lost by less earlier in the year. Kansas State will have more second chances this game as they grab 2.5 more rebounds a game than Texas Tech. Kansas St ranks an excellent 21st in the country in offensive boards a game. They also swipe 2 more steals a game than TTU. KSU is ranked as high as 35th in the country only allowing 34.3 points per game in 2nd halves this season. Kansas State can grab the opportunities to win this game. Pick Kansas State. |
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03-05-16 | LSU v. Kentucky -13 | 77-94 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
25* graded play on Kentucky as they take on LSU in SEC action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kentucky will win this game by at least 15 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 61-27 ATS good for 69.3% winners: PLAY AGAINST underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (LSU) - after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kentucky is a near perfect 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season and they are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games on Saturday games this season. LSU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after a conference game this season. LSU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) off a home win this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Kentucky significantly outranks LSU in ALL categories except the insignificant ones-assists per game, steals, and only scores 1.6 PPG less. As far as allowing opponents PPG, Kentucky is 65th only allowing 67.6 PPG as LSU is a poor 277th allowing 76.8 PPG. LSU is worse as the game goes on ranking 313th in allowing 41.5 points per 2nd halves this season. Kentucky is so much better and will dominate this game to more than cover the spread. Pick Kentucky. |
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03-05-16 | Georgetown v. Villanova -14 | Top | 71-84 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
25* graded play on Villanova as they take on Georgetown in BIG EAST action set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Villanova will win this game by at least 17 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-21 ATS over the last 5 seasons good for 68.7% ATS: PLAY ON a home team (VILLANOVA) - after 3 or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Villanova is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 4 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after having won 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons;13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after having won 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons; a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a game committing 12+ less turnovers than opponents over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Villanova is 2-0 against the spread and SU at home versus Georgetown over the last 3 seasons. Nova has a significant 2.5% higher effective FG percentage than Georgetown which outranks them (29th and 111st respectively). Villanova does beat Georgetown in all statistical categories by significant margin except blocks. Georgetown is a very sloppy team ranking 342nd with 23 fouls a game this season. That alone will give Nova more free points than they need. Villanova will simply outclass Georgetown to blow them out today. Pick Villanova. |
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03-04-16 | Nets +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
25* graded play on Brooklyn as they take on Denver in NBA action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Brooklyn will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot to post an upset win. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Brooklyn is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Malone (Denver) is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting less than 21 free throws/game in all games he has coached. Fundamental Discussion Points Brooklyn beat Denver in their last meeting less than a month ago. The Nets are 4-1 straight up and ATS against Denver over the last 3 seasons. As far as rankings and statistics are concerned these two teams are very tight being less than 1 unit apart in most categories. I believe this game will be closer and in the advantage of Brooklyn. Pick Brooklyn. |
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03-04-16 | The Citadel v. Mercer -10 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
25* graded play on Mercer as they take on the Citadel in the first round of the Southern Conference Tournament set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Mercer will win this game by more than 14 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-14 ATS mark good for 75.4% winners since 2010. Play on a favorite (MERCER) after 5 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 6 or more consecutive losses. Here is the second system that has gone 35-14 ATS for 71.4% winners since 1997. Play against underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (THE CITADEL) terrible defensive team allowing 84+ points/game on the season, after 2 straight losses by 15 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Citadel is a horrid 12-34 ATS (-25.4 Units) when they allow 81 to 86 points in a game; 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when they grab 10+ fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons; Mercer is a solid 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when their opponents make 34% to 39% of their shots in a game. Fundamental Discussion Points Mercer is 4-0 against the spread versus Citadel over the last 3 seasons. Citadel is THE WORST team in the country by a far margin allowing 95.2 opponents points per game. This is because they are THE WORST in allowing opponents two point percentage, opponents FGs and FTs made per game, and more. They almost allow 50 points in the second half in games this season! Mercer grabs a huge 5 more rebounds per game than Citadel. Citadel is also worst, giving up more than 29 free throws a game as Mercer is ranked 34th in sinking it from the line. There is just so many more opportunities for Mercer to destroy Citadel in this game. Pick Mercer. |
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03-04-16 | Southern Illinois +6 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 60-66 | Push | 0 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
25* graded play on Southern Illinois as they take on Northern Iowa set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Southern Illinois will lose this game by five or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. S Illinois is a good 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1997. Hinson is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) off a home win as the coach of S Illinois. N Iowa is a bad 50-76 ATS (-33.6 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 fewer rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. Fundamental Discussion Points Southern Illinois grabs 6 more rebounds a game than N Iowa which will allow them more opportunities in this game. They also swipe 2 more steals a game than N Iowa. Besides those two statistical categories these two teams are fairly close in the other categories. Less than 1 percent difference in their opponents effective FG percentage and less than .5 difference in score margin this season. Southern Illinois can keep this close. Pick Southern Illinois. |
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03-03-16 | California +6.5 v. Arizona | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
25* graded play on California as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cal will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 69-36 over the last 5 seasons good for 65.7% ATS: PLAY AGAINST home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ARIZONA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. California is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games this season. Cal is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points California is playing really well on their hot streak of 7 looking for their eighth win in a row. They are fourth in the country only allowing 43.5% opponents effective FG percentage. They are SECOND BEST in the country suffocating opponents to only shoot 40% two pointers this season. Cal is comparable offensively with Arizona so they can use their excellent defense to shut down Arizona and come away with a victory. Pick California. |
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03-03-16 | Northwestern v. Penn State | Top | 71-61 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
25* graded play on Penn State as they host Northwestern in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at as they take on set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Penn State will win this game. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game this season and they are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road loss by 10 points or more this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Penn State is 2-1 ATS and SU against Northwestern over the last 3 seasons. They are also 10-4 straight up at home against Northwestern since 1997. Back in January PSU on the road beat Northwestern and crushed the spread against them. Since then NW has been a poor 3-7. PSU steals more per game and grabs more second chance offensive rebounds than Northwestern. They will use that to their advantage increasing their good record against Northwestern. Pick Penn State. |
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03-03-16 | Suns +13.5 v. Heat | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Phoenix Suns as they take on the Miami Heat in NBA action set to start at 7:35 PM ET. as they take on set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Phoenix will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 23.5* play using the line and a 1.5* play using the money line. Reasonable to say Phoenix has a low probability of winning, BUT just in case they do, the 1.5* money risk is well worth it. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-36 since 1996 good for 67.6% ATS: PLAY AGAINST home favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is bad on streaks posting 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. They are also a horrible 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus poor ball handling teams - committing greater than 16 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points The Heat haven't been nearly as prolific offensively, sitting near the bottom of the league with 97.5 points per game and last with a 31.9 3-point percentage. Dwayne Wade and the Heat will be tired playing their 8th game in less than 14 days. Also remember Chris Bosh is out for Miami due to a blood clot. I believe Phoenix will keep it within single digits this game. Pick Phoenix. |
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03-03-16 | Quinnipiac +5 v. Rider | Top | 57-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
50* graded play on Quinnipiac as they take on Rider in First Round Metro Atlantic Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Quinnipiac will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2010. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (RIDER) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after a close win by 3 points or less. This system has gone 15-1 ATS over the past 3 seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rider is a money losing 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when they attempt 54 to 62 shots in a game this season; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons; 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after 2 straight games being called for 5+ less fouls than opponent since 1997. Fundamental Discussion Points Quinnipiac is BEST in the country grabbing 43.7 rebounds a game which in this matchup is 8.1 more rebounds a game than Rider this season. They also allow a significant 2.7% less effective FG percentage than Rider. Quinnipiac is good at blocking shots being 39th in the nation blocking almost 5 shots a game. Quinnipiac will get way more second chances and block some crucial points in this game. Pick Quinnipiac. |
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03-02-16 | Eastern Illinois +6 v. Murray State | Top | 62-78 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
25* graded play on Eastern Illinois (EIU) as they take on Murray State in the first round of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament set to start at 9:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that EIU will lose this game by fewer than six points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. EIU is a solid 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons. MS is just 20-41 ATS (-25.1 Units) after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers Fundamental Discussion Points Neither of these teams are all that good ranking in the lower half of the 351 team D-1 basketball database. However, we are looking at this matchup only and not making any comparisons at all to Top-25 teams. In this game, I really like EIU Guard Trea Anderson. Who is averaging a team-high 15.0 PPG on 49% shooting averaging just 24 minutes per game. However, his minutes played has increased steadily over the season and he will go at least 30 minutes tonight. Just last Thursday, EIU defeated MS 85-74 and Anderson had 22 points on 10-16 shooting and was 2-3 from beyond the arc. Take EIU. |
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03-02-16 | Arkansas v. Alabama -3.5 | 62-61 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
25* graded play on Alabama as they host Arkansas in SEC Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by at least six points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 64-26 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 2010 and has gone 4-1 ATS for 80% winners this season. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ARKANSAS) after 2 or more consecutive unders against opponent after 3 or more consecutive ‘unders’. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is a solid 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making more than 37% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997; 26-62 ATS (-42.2 Units) in road games after playing a game as an underdog since 1997; 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) in road games after playing a game as a road underdog since 1997; Alabama is a stout 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams visited Florida in February with different results. Alabama actually won against Florida when Arkansas did not. Alabama is 3-0 ATS overall and 1-0 ATS at home versus Arkansas. Alabama's defense can out play Arkansas's offense and their offense can keep up posting less than 1% difference in these teams effective FG percentages. Alabama is 28th in the country in shooting defense only allowing 45.9% of opponents effective FG percentage. They are also in the top 30 in opponents free throw percentage. Arkansas ranks a bad 311th in fouling 21.7 times a game. Alabama will have more opportunities and play better defense to win this game. Pick Alabama. |
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03-02-16 | Oregon v. UCLA +2.5 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Oregon in a critical PAC-12 Conference matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 81-46 mark over the last 5 seasons good for 63.8% ATS: PLAY ON home teams as an underdog (UCLA) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCLA is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. UCLA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Alford is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) after 2 consecutive conference games as the coach of UCLA. Fundamental Discussion Points In this series UCLA is 21-18 straight up against Oregon since 1997. UCLA rebounds way better than Oregon, ranking 26th in the country grabbing 40.1 rebounds a game. Oregon ranks a lowly 207th with 5 less rebounds a game. Also all 6 of Oregon's losses are on the road this season. UCLA will grab more second chances to outscore Oregon tonight. Pick UCLA. |
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03-02-16 | Blazers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 93-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
25* graded play on Portland as they take on Boston in NBA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. as they take on set to start at PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Portland will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-17 ATS good for 71.2% winners: PLAY ON road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) off a road win by 10 points or more, as an extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Trailblazers are great away from home posting 23-4 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing their 4th road game in 5 days since 1996. Portland is a solid 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in up-tempo games where they attempt 84 or more shots this season and 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games where both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. Fundamental Discussion Points Portland is 14-2 since Jan. 23 and haven't lost on the road since Jan. 18, starting this season-high six-game trip with wins at Chicago, Indiana and New York. Portland is 3-1 straight up against Boston overall and 2-0 ATS at Boston over the last 3 seasons. The Trailblazers are statistically better than the Celtics in rebounding, effective FG %, blocks, less fouls per game, and they allow less points in the paint. Portland will remain on their hot streak and upset Boston. Pick Portland. |
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03-02-16 | Miami (Fla) +2.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 68-50 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
25* graded play on Miami (FL) as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miami (FL) will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. Now, the Money Line needs to be at +140 and higher in order to validate the combination wager based on ROI calculations. I do expect ND public money to come pouring in throughout the morning hours and may be enough to drive the line to +3 and that level just might be enough to get the +140 level attained. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1997. Play on road teams as an underdog or pick (MIAMI) in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 50% of their 3 point shots or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game this season; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points It’s Senior night at Notre Dame and represents the last home game of the season. Still, Miami is the better team and I fully expect them to win this game. There is a mountain of reasons Miami is ranked 7th in the nation and Notre Dame is NOT ranked. |
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03-01-16 | Texas A&M v. Auburn +11 | 81-63 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
25* graded play on Auburn as they host Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at the upset. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 22.5* play using the line and a 2.5* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-3 mark good for 90% winners since 1997. Play against favorites of 10 or more points (TEXAS A&M) after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas A&M is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Auburn comes alive at home games against similar teams to TAMU. They put up 36.6 points at the half in games against teams like TAMU that average 35.3 at the half. Auburn is an excellent 3 point shooting team ranking 26th in the country making 9.1 threes a game. A&M is a bad 231st rank in defending the three pointer giving up over 7 a game. Auburn can sink the threes to catch up to TAMU. Pick Auburn. |
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03-01-16 | Baylor +7.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
25* graded play on Baylor as they take on Oklahoma in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Baylor will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Sooners are an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. Fundamental Discussion Points Rebounding will be a big factor in this game. Oklahoma loves the ‘three’ and when not made create long rebounds that Baylor must control. However, on the Baylor offensive glass is where I see the biggest matchup advantage. Baylor ranks third in the nation offensive rebounding percentage at 41%. That means nearly half of Baylor’s possessions result in multi-shot possessions. I think Baylor will be very focused at both ends of rebounding and this will give them the chance to gain a huge upset win. |
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03-01-16 | Blazers -5.5 v. Knicks | 104-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
25* graded play on Portland as they take on New York Knicks in NBA action set to start at 7:35 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Portland will win this game by more than 7 points. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 81-32 ATS mark good for 72% winners since 2010. Play against underdogs (NEW YORK) good offensive team scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rambis (New York) is 8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season in all games he has coached. Portland is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Portland Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard has gone for at least 30 points in seven of his last eight games with an average of 33.3 in that span. Lillard is the league's fifth-best scorer with 25.4 points per game. Portland (32-28) is 7-1 in his red-hot stretch in which the guard is shooting 41.6 percent on 3-pointers. Portland dominates New York in all the offensive statistics and grab more rebounds defensively than the Knicks. Look for Portland and Lillard to continue this hot streak and dominate the Knicks tonight. Pick Portland. |
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03-01-16 | Central Michigan +2.5 v. Ball State | 65-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
25* graded play on Central Michigan as they take on Ball State in MAC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that CMU will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ball State is a horrid 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when they attempt 14 to 18 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Further, we see that Ball State is a money burning 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons. Fundamental Discussion Points Both teams recently visited Toledo but with different results as C Michigan won and beat the spread compared to Ball State who lost and lost ATS. There's only a less than 1% difference in these teams' effective FG percentage shooting so lets look at significant differences. C Michigan scores 4.5 PPG more, commits 1 personal foul a game less, and have a turnover rate of 5.1% less than Ball State. In fact CMU is 4th in the country with 12.2% turnovers per play compared to Ball State ranking 293rd. In a close spread game, look for Ball State to give more turnovers and opportunities to Central Michigan. CMU won't make mistakes and give opportunities to Ball State. Pick Central Michigan. |
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02-29-16 | Kansas v. Texas +2 | Top | 86-56 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
25* graded play on Texas as they take on Kansas in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. However, we need +140 to validate the ML portion of this combination wager based on calculated ROI metrics. If you don’t get +140, then simply wager 25* amount using the line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42=18 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 2010. Play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas is a money burning 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in road games versus excellent ball handling teams committing 80%) after 15 or more games this season; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Further, revenge is a factor and Texas is a very strong 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season. |
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02-29-16 | Jazz +6 v. Celtics | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
25* graded play on the Utah Jazz as they take on the Boston Celtics in NBA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Utah will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 53-26 ATS mark good for 67% winners since 2010. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) off a home win by 10 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah is a solid 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they attempt 23 to 28 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons; 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 129-208 ATS (-99.8 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game since 1996. Utah ahs lost three of the last four and four straight ATS. In their last game, they lost 98-96 to Brooklyn and were installed as 11 ½ point favorites. This highly negative event turns into a bright spot though as head coach Snyder is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Utah. |
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