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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-21 | Maryland +13 v. Michigan State | 21-40 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units It’s true the Terps have pitched a no-no in conference games this season (0-6 ATS), but head coach Mike Locksley is 2-0 ATS in his career in games against foes coming off a SU favorite loss – and a hard loss it was, as the Spartans had their undefeated “bubble burst” in the loss at Purdue. Despite Michigan State’s surprising success in 2021, the Spartans are just 1-6 ATS as Big Ten chalk of more than seven points, and 2-7 ATS at home versus conference revenge. Meanwhile, the Terps have cashed in three of their last four games against MSU, and the visitor in this series is on a 3-0 ATS run. Consider that playing againts any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its inital loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 11-2 ATS since 1980.. |
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11-13-21 | Michigan -1 v. Penn State | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 65 h 22 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin brings is a 13-23 SU and 16-20 ATS career mark into games against opponents with a better win percentage, including 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS versus .875 or greater foes. This will mark the fourth time in the last five years these two teams will meet as ranked teams, so neither side should find the stage too large. However, to Michigan’s credit, the Maize-and-Blue did not buckle beneath the weight of the “bubble burst” following the contested loss against Sparty, methodically grinding out a 29-7 win over Indiana last Saturday, holding the Hoosiers to just 195 total yards. The feeling here is the Wolverines are the better team, and they’ll be out to avenge a season-ending home loss to the Lions last year, one that denied them a .500 campaign. Consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 40-8 |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +5.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 101 | 65 h 10 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Play of the Day OU is still unbeaten but not ATS under Riley, instead they’re a middling 9-14 in that category. There is one Jimmy the Greek style checkmark in the Sooners column, a powerful 14-2 ATS mark as road chalk of 8 or fewer. BU is coming off a surprise loss to TCU last week but in their series with OU, Da Bears are 3-0 ATS in the last three and 7-1 ATS as a home dog when coming off a loss. In conference revenge games, Baylor is a sturdy 10-2 ATS, plus, BU is 20-5 SUATS in Waco since 2011 against foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS as the dog. It’s only the eighth time in this long series both teams have been ranked, all of them since 2011, and OU is 4-3. Consider that since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Nine out facing .700 or greater opponents are just 49-50 SU and 40-57-3 (41.2%). Say hello to Oklahoma. Worse, these same guys have seen their necks snap like they’re swinging from the gallows pole when they’re installed as road favorites of 4 or more points, falling to 14-31 ATS. And when installed as favorites of 4 or more points when coming off a win of 20 or more points, they drop to 16-13 SU and SU and 7-22 ATS in these games, including 6-7 SU and 1-12 ATS against foes that were favored by more than 7 points in their last game |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A check of the ATS archives reveals a lot of Carolina blue goose eggs: 0-5 ATS Weekdays, 0-5 ATS after Wake Forest, and 0-5 ATS before a non-conference home game. Remember, teams who knock off a 7-0 or greater opponent are just 40-60-3 ATS when on the road the next game, including 1-9 ATS the past two seasons. And when this year’s Tar Heels don’t win, they don’t cover, as all four of their losses were both SU and ATS. We fully expect another shootout tonight between Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and UNC QB Sam Howell, but with both of Pitt’s previous SU losses taking place at Heinz Field, the Panthers have extra incentive to make amends with a strong performance here. With Pittsburgh boasting a 6-1 ATS log in Weekday games, we're siding with the Panthers. |
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11-06-21 | UTSA v. UTEP +12 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit CFB Upset of the Day UTEP battled back from a 28-10 4Q deficit to fall, 28-25, at Florida Atlantic last week, but at 6-2 this season, the Miners will be bowling for the fi rst time since 2014. Why, you ask? Because they are 7-1 ITS (In The Stats), winning the stats by +100 YPG, and are 4-2 ATS as double-digit pups over the past two seasons. Will another double-digit dog pull an upset this week? A total of 34 FBS games have fallen into that category this season and this has a strong possibility of being another. Consider as well that playing against any 7-0 or greater college football dog road favorite coming off a week of rest if they are facing a .444 or greater opponent that is not coming off a win of 7 or more points is 12-0 ATS since 1980. |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week The 5-3 Boilermakers are 6-2 ITS (In The Stats) this season, winning the stats by an average of 72 net YPG. They beat a Top 10-ranked Iowa team three weeks ago, and are looking to do the same here today. Consider this: the Spartans are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in post-Michigan meetings in which they managed to score 30 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in games in which MSU allows more than 20 PPG. They are also 1-5 SUATS after taking on UM in games in which they coughed up 30-plus points. Can you spell L-E-T-D-O-W-N? Also consider that playing against any college football road favorite who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in its last game is o 4-20 ATS in this role from Game Seven out. And if this is a conference game, they drop to 3-18 ATS. |
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11-06-21 | California -11.5 v. Arizona | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -108 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Mismatch On the heels of back-to-back wins, call this a crucial game for the 3-5 |
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11-06-21 | Wake Forest +2.5 v. North Carolina | 55-58 | Loss | -103 | 68 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units North Carloina takes the field here with a 22-38 ATS mark versus undefeated opponents, including 0-7 SUATS after allowing 35 or more points in his team’s previous game. The inconsistent Heels have won back-to-back games just once this year, but to their credit, they have not lost two consecutive games, either. That starts today as you consider that Head coach Dave Clawson is 24-12 ATS against conference foes without a winning record, including 5-0 ATS when his team sports a .800 or greater win percentage. |
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11-06-21 | SMU v. Memphis +5.5 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 UnitCFB Game of the Week The 44-37 defeat was the first loss of the season for SMU, and Dykes now runs into another prolific passing attack in Memphis, ranked 18th in the nation (296 YPG). He is also 4-11 ATS as conference road chalk, including 0-4 ATS versus greater than .333 opponents. Meanwhile, Memphis had covered six straight times in this series until getting nipped last season, 30-27, on a field goal at the final gun. That sets up a conference revenge situation for the Tigers, a role in which they are 4-1 ATS at home. In addition, at 4-4 on the season, Ryan Silverfield’s squad is battling to earn a bowl bid for the eighth year in a row. A win today will help, and so does the fact that SMU is 2-9 ATS as a conference road favorite of 17 or fewer points, including 0-4 ATS from Game Nine out. Better yet, playing against any CFB favorite who started the season 7-0 or better, coming off its initial loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28 or more points if they are facing a conference opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1980. |
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10-30-21 | Washington +2.5 v. Stanford | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 80 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day The Huskies have taken care of business in this series, going 4-1-1 ATS off a win when Stanford is coming off a loss of 3 or more points. Washington is also 4-1 ATS as a conference dog coming off a SU win and a double-digit ATS loss. Those situations were all set up by an embarrassing first half (65 total yards and zero points) against Arizona, one of the very worst teams in the nation. This, very irritated Washington fans have been calling for back-up QB Sam Huard, but the truth is Dylan Morris got his act together just in time to pull out the win over the Cats. Still, this year’s 3-4 SU record indicates that Jimmy Lake is not the answer in Seattle. With the Huskies looking to avenge a pair of losses to Stanford over the past two seasons as double-digit favorites, we hand it off to the clincher where playing on any 17 or more returning starter college football dog with revenge coming off consecutive ATS losses if they are facing a sub .450 opponent coming off consecutive losses is 19-1 ATS since 1990. |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State +1.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 42 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit SEC Game of the Week Kentucky is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye week, and after this Starkville trip, they must still face Tennessee and Louisville, so any hopes of a Top 10 finish after that 6-0 start (last accomplished in 1977) are quickly fading away. As for the Starkville Bulldogs, last year’s horror show in Lexington came in the midst of a 4-game losing skid, as the Dogs dropped a 24-2 decision to the Cats, the second-lowest point production by a Mike Leach team in his career. Revenge is tasty, but so is the Halloween candy that the Mad Professor munches on yearly, |
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10-30-21 | Georgia -13.5 v. Florida | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Florida had lost three straight in this rivalry until a big 44-28 win last year in Jacksonville. Both teams have had a bye to prepare this year, and I don’t think top-ranked Georgia is very happy about last year's loss. I also don’t think Florida is as bad as it showed in a 49-42 upset at LSU two weeks ago. I’m expecting the Gators' two QBs to have trouble, turn the ball over and the Dawgs to capitalize. Georgia has the nation's No. 1 defense, allowing only 6.6 ppg. |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 70 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Big-12 Game of the Week Yes, Jim Harbaugh can call on revenge from last year’s 27-24 loss to the Spartans as 21-point home chalk, but the fact is Michigan has covered just once in its last five tries when playing with conference revenge. While the Wolverines have taken exceptional care of the football this season with only four turnovers in seven games, we look for a flying-all-over-the-field MSU ‘D’ to force a few key errors that turn the tide in their favor. With that, consider that Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS away versus undefeated opponents. In addition playing on any 5-0 or greater college football dog coming off a SUATS win if they are facing an undefeated opponent that is coming off a win of 24 or more points if they defeated the undefeated opponent ni their most recent meeting is 12-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-30-21 | Cincinnati -24.5 v. Tulane | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tulane comes in ranked 128th in three important defensive categories – Total D (493 YPG), Scoring D (42.9 PPG) and Passing Defense (300 YPG). Pretty horrible since there are only 130 teams! In fact, it’s been a very long time since the Green Wave traveled to Norman to open the season and gave the Sooners everything they could handle in a 5-point loss. Now they have dropped five straight contests, with a tidal wave of points allowed (40 or more in four of the five defeats), along with season high – or 2nd high – yards in those games. Consider that Tulane is 1-11 ATS at home coming off a conference loss of more than 28 points. |
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10-29-21 | Navy +11 v. Tulsa | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tulsa shows up with a below .500 record, after five consecutive losses, both SU and against the spread. Tulsa has also dumped four straight ATS decisions on this field to Navy, and the series host is on an unlucky 1-7 ATS slide. Now in his 14th year with Navy and pulling down a salary of $2.3 million per season, Niumatalolo knows he can hang onto his job if the Midshipmen continue to play with the same intensity they displayed against the Bearcats. It won’t be easy: after tonight, Navy plays three of its final four games away from Annapolis versus Notre Dame, Temple, and Army. Regardless, we think Tulsa shouldn’t be laying double digits to the Middies here, especially with a playoff revenger against No. 2 Cincinnati waiting on deck. Take the points. |
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10-23-21 | UTSA -6.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 45-16 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Don't look now, but we've got another non-Power Five squad attaching itself to a Top 25 ranking, these Roadrunners, who are just 20 pts from a 20-3 spread run (actually 17-6-1). Dog is 13-4 (5-0 this year) ATS in Bulldog games, but Tech can't run (#99), & Kendall just 10 TDs with 8 INTs |
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10-23-21 | Western Michigan v. Toledo +2 | 15-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Western Michigan is only 6-12-1 ATS as road chalk in MAC action when coming off a SUATS win, including 0-4-1 ATS the last five. Not so for Rockets head coach Jason Candle, who is 3-1 SUATS with UT when coming off back-to-back losses, including 3-0 SUATS when not installed as a double-digit dog. We also prefer Toledo’s 34-10 SU record in the last 44 conference home games, as opposed to WMU’s awful 3-12 SU skid in this series when playing on the road. With the Rockets’ season on the line, we’ll turn it over to the nation’s top-ranked team in returning production – with added backing from the fact that Toledo is 5-0 ATS since 2000 as a conference home dog against an opponent coming off a SUATS win. |
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10-23-21 | LSU +9.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day Mississippi is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games with conference revenge, and 3-9 versus the number as SEC chalk of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, LSU is 4-1 ATS as road dogs of less than 10 points and has covered the spread 4 of the last five meetings in this series. Consider that LSU coach Orgeron is 27-11 ATS in conference games against foes with a better record, including 11-0 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in his previous game. |
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10-23-21 | Rice v. UAB -23 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Rice was expected to wake up this season but hasn’t followed the script, entering today’s game at 2-4 on the season. And don’t get too excited about that pair of victories, since they came against the likes of Texas Southern and Southern Miss (1-6). Meanwhile, the host in this series is 8-1 ATS with the Blazers 5-0 ATS at home. In addition, Bill Clark is 25-5 SU and 18-7 ATS at home as the head man with the Blazers, including 21-1 SU and 15-2-1 ATS versus .600 or less foes. We’re defi nitely not about to step in front of that with these sleepy visitors |
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10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army +3.5 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit CFB Game of the Week Army Head Coach Jeff Monken is very comfortable as the point man in this role, going 11-4 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points coming off back-to-back defeats, including 4-0 ATS under Monken. Wake has never shone against military schools, going just 7-18 SU and 8-16 ATS, including 4-6 SU and 2-8 |
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10-23-21 | Cincinnati v. Navy +28 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
CFB 5* Upset That's a lot for the Midshipmen to prep for after its latest loss last Thursday. The defense gave up four touchdowns on Memphis' first five drives in a 35-17 defeat. Navy made the most of its first possession against Memphis, piecing together a methodical, 21-play touchdown drive that lasted 11:50. The Midshipmen scored only 10 points the rest of the day. Consider that playing on any college football military team if they are a dog of 20 or more points coming off a loss of 16 or more points if they allow fewer than 41 points per game and are facing a .666 or greater opponent before Game Eleven of the season is a perfect 20-0 since 1980. |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s also not very pretty what happens to undefeated road favorites coming off a week of rest from Game Six out when facing an avenging conference foe coming off a loss. These teams are just 3-19 ATS in this role since 1995. That dismal stat plays right into the Mountaineers’ 8-0 SU and 5-1 ATS success when coming off a loss the past four years |
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10-16-21 | Arizona State v. Utah | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 3 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit NCAAF Mismatch of the Week It was a big “W” for the Utes last week in a double revenge matchup with USC, with a solid performance from new QB Cam Rising, but Utah is dragged down in this tilt with a 4-9 SUATS mark in games when coming off upset wins. Meanwhile, Arizona State is an ITS (In The Stats) darling this year, winning the yards in all six games while averaging +141 YPG. As a result, they are dominating the stat rankings this season, including No. 2 on the defensive side of the ball. With it, the overall yardage winner is 2-22 SU in the last 24 Utes games. ASU lost 21-3 at Utah in their most recent meeting in 2019, Herm Edwards’ worst loss with Arizona State since taking over the program four seasons ago. The Clincher: The Sun Devils are 14-4 ATS with revenge against an opponent coming off a SU underdog win, including 10-0 ATS against foes who allow 23 or more points per game. |
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10-16-21 | Ole Miss v. Tennessee +2.5 | 31-26 | Loss | -102 | 76 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Matt Corral is a legitimate talent, accounting for four more touchdowns against the Hogs in Saturday’s 52-51 shootout, but you know we’re not keen on laying points in conference games with bad defenses, and we won’t begin here. Toss in the Rebels’ abysmal series record of 2-13 SU in the last 15 games, plus their 1-5 ATS record overall as road favorites, and you can see why we’re headed for the betting window. Also playing against any college football road favorite off a win who allows more than 30 points per game and more than 4 yards per rush if they surrendered 60-plus points combined in its last two games before Game Seven of the season, are 3-20-1 ATS. |
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10-16-21 | Iowa State v. Kansas State +6.5 | 33-20 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams coming in 3-2 and win in Game Six the prospects of donning bowling shirts improves considerably. Lose and they can begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus, these become pivotal games. These Game Six teams are at their best playing with the added benefit of a week of rest, going 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS. That should be music to the ears for Kansas State. In addition, put them at home and they respond with aplomb, going 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS. It’s where the Wildcats anticipate benefiting from home-cooking this week. And by matching them up against .600 or fewer opponents, their chances of winning improves dramatically as the teams have gone 7-0 SUATS in this role. That applies to Chris Klieman’s Kansas Sate crew. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +12 v. Iowa | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show |
Rating 4 Unit Big-10 Play of the Day Purdue is one of only 10 teams in the nation that have out yarded every opponent they’ve faced this season, and besides a 5-1 spread record on the road versus conference revenge (plus 5-2 ATS with rest), they have covered 3 of the last four meetings in this series. Jeff Brohm is also 20-9 ATS as a dog, including 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss, so get out your crayons and color them dangerous. As for the sky-high Hawkeyes, they are 1-4 ATS at home with Big Ten revenge (lost to Purdue 24-20 in last season’s lid-lifter). While they knocked QB Clifford out of the PSU game last week, we’re banking they won’t do the same to the Boilermakers’ starting signal caller this week. The Clincher: Ferentz is 2-7-1 ATS as a favorite in conference games after defeating an undefeated foe, including 0-4-1 ATS at home, as well as 0-4-1 ATS versus winning opponents. |
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit ACC Game of the Week Playing on (Virginia Tech) any college football mission team (missed bowl game last year after having been a bowler the previous three seasons) if they are a home dog with revenge who allows fewer than 19.5 PPG if they are facing a foe that did not lose its last game by more than 3 points provided the foe rushes the ball for less than 288 YPG on the season is a perfect 18-0 ATS since 1990. |
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10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When these same two teams met last season, Clemson was gaining 531 YPG and allowing 264 YPG, while Syracuse was averaging 264 yards of offense and giving up 486 yards per game. That was a net of +491 YPG in the Tigers favor. This year, it’s a net edge of +98 YPG in favor of the Orange. Clemson has also burned piles of money in 2021, going 0-5 ATS versus all opponents, while Syracuse checks in with a 4-1 ATS success. Things don’t look much better for Dabo and company as Clemson is 1-4 ATS as road chalk of 14 or less points, and 1-3 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss. By comparison, the ‘Cuse has cashed a ticket in three of the last four series meetings, and head coach Dino Babers stands 10-5 ATS as a dog the past two seasons. |
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10-09-21 | Utah +3 v. USC | 42-26 | Win | 100 | 75 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Even after the return of QB Kedon Slovis to lead USC’s 37-14 thumping of Colorado last week, we’re not sure we can trust the Trojans to exploit the Utah reset on offense. Not when USC is 0-4 ATS in the series when coming off a SUATS win, plus a passive 7-13 ATS as Pac-12 home chalk, including 1-4 ATS in the last five. Need more? The Utes are a useful 12-7 SU and 15-4 ATS when .500 under Whittingham, including 8-0 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points. The clinchers: Head Coach Whittingham has been money in the bank as a dog when coming off a spread loss of -4 or more points, going 17-4-1 ATS in his career, including 13-1 ATS the last 14 games. |
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10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Play of the Day After losing 33 of its previous 35 battles with the Gators, you would think Mr. Mo-Mentum would stick around Lexington for another week, but his reputation is to bail on the Cats, who are 14-27 SU after games with UF, including 2-7 ATS as a favorite. The Tigers make things more difficult for the hosts with their 17-4 ATS as dogs when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 13-1-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opponents. And for what it’s worth, Kentucky’s finest is 0-3 SUATS since 1980 in Game Six after opening the season 5-0, plus Big blue is a weak 13-33 SU and 17-29 ATS in SEC games after winning any game SU as an underdog. The clincher: College football home favorites coming off a SU home win as an underdog of 7 or more points are 1-13 ATS the last six years when facing .600 or fewer opponents. Playing on any 3-2 conference dog in Game Six coming off a SU conference favorite loss if they scored fewer than 30 points in the loss (LSU) and are facing an opponent that was not favored by 6 or more points in its last game is 12-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-09-21 | Wyoming v. Air Force -6 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing on any college football home team that rushed for 300 or more yards in each of its last three games is 82-63-2 ATS in this role since 1980. Better yet, bring these overland juggernauts in off a confidence building spread win of 15 or more points, and they improve to 20-7 ATS in conference clashes. Best of all, these same teams who love to run are 15-3 ATS in this role since 1990. |
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10-09-21 | Penn State +2 v. Iowa | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-10 Game of the Week Penn State is 3-0 ATS on the road with conference revenge (they got drubbed by the Hawkeyes in Happy Valley last year, 41-21, to drop them to 0-5), while Iowa is just 1-5 ATS at home against a vengeful opponent. The Lions are also 10-1 ATS in Game Six of the season versus a foe coming off a win, including 6-0 SUATS in the last six. Meanwhile, Kirk Ferentz is 2-6-1 ATS as a favorite in games when both teams are undefeated and the opponent is seeking revenge. The clinchers: when a 5-0 favorite is laying points into a 5-0 dog – as Iowa will be doing this week against Penn State – the 5-0 favorite is 6-14 ATS. |
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10-08-21 | Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UC is riding the nation’s second-longest home win skein at 22 in a row – all of which leads to the Bearcats laying four TDs to Temple tonight, a huge jump from their last meeting on this field, where Cincy edged the Owls, 15-13, as 8.5-point chalk. The fact is Temple has cashed five straight tickets in this series, and Rod Carey’s crew is riding a 5-0 ATS skein as dogs of 20 or more points. We feel a natural letdown is in order for the Bearcats here. Consider also that playing against any team off a SUATS win against Notre Dame if they are favored by 11 or more points and are facing an avenging .400 or greater opponent is 15-0 ATS since 1990. |
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10-02-21 | Arizona State +3.5 v. UCLA | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 61 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Devils are 10-2 ATS on the road with conference revenge and 5-0 ATS as dogs of less than a TD. They outgained Colorado (439-250) behind dual threat QB Jayden Daniels, who ran for 2 touchdowns and 75 yards, plus threw for 236 yards through the air. Meanwhile, Chip Kelly’s team bounced back from the last-second loss to Fresno State by pummeling Stanford on Saturday, 35-24, in their Pac-12 opener. However, UCLA is just 3-11 ATS as favorites of less than a touchdown. In addition, Kelly is 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS at home with the Bruins versus foes coming off a win. To cap it off, consider that the Sun Devils are 11-4 ATS as dogs under head coach Herm Edwards, including 6-0 ATS in game in which they are allowing fewer than 17 PPG. |
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10-02-21 | Florida v. Kentucky +8.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units SEC SmokerThe Cats own a Top 10-ranked defense and are outgaining opponents by 183 yards per game this campaign. In addition, HC Mark Stoops is 12-5 SU and 12-2 ATS when the Wildcats are undefeated, including 8-0 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win. His stop unit came up with a big effort in a 16-10 win over South Carolina on Saturday, while the rushing attack rolled up 230 yards on the ground. |
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10-02-21 | Central Florida -16 v. Navy | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Game Four rested road teams who find themselves off one loss have gone 34-17 ATS in conference games including 21-7 ATS when taking the field off a double-digit spread loss in their last game with favorites of more than seven points going 6-0 ATS (Knights) checking in at 11-4 ATS. |
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10-02-21 | Nevada +6.5 v. Boise State | Top | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Nevada has had a week off to lick their wounds from a 21-point loss to Kansas State, and should be raring to go in the high country today. It makes sense considering the Broncos are just 1-3 ‘In The Stats’ this year, outgained by 49 yards per game this season. Nevada head coach Jay Norvell (no relation to Mike) is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS coming off a bye, and we’re choosing to forget about the blowout loss to KSU. Consider also that Nevada is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in games when coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus a foe coming off a win. |
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10-02-21 | Cincinnati v. Notre Dame +2 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Cash Play Playing on any college football home dog of fewer than 4 points (Notre Dame) from game five out if both teams are undefeated and the home dog was either a dog or a favorite of 7 or fewer points in their last game is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1980. |
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10-01-21 | BYU v. Utah State +8.5 | 34-20 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week BYU comes into this one a money-burning 2-10 ATS in their last twelve tries as chalk, and coach Sitake is just 4-10 ATS as a favorite when coming off an ATS loss, including 1-8 ATS versus a foe not coming off a spread win of 7 or more points (0-7 ATS the last seven). We know if you watched Utah State implode against Boise State last week, you won’t relish the idea of backing them here, but the bottom line is, the Aggies are a “mission team” coming off a loss, seeking revenge. With non-conference teams 27-11-1 ATS in this role since 1990. Especially with added support that USU head coach Blake Anderson is 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3 | 51-14 | Loss | -103 | 35 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Maryland has yet to face a defense as tough as Iowa. Then again, Iowa arguably hasn't met an offense as explosive as that of Maryland. Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa is the Big Ten's leading passer in both yards (1,340) and completion percentage (75.5). He's thrown 10 touchdowns and only one interception. Ferentz highlighted Tagovailoa's mobility, saying he gets out of the pocket "with ease." Consider that playing on any 4-0 or greater college football home underdog (Maryland) versus a 4-0 or greater opponent is a whopping 12-1 ATS since 2014. |
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09-25-21 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -17 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 41 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units HC Riley is 4-0 SUATS in the next contest after OU scores 28 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the Sooners overall are 29-2 SU and 21-10 ATS in conference games after failing to score 27 or more points. Battles against arch-rival Nebraska seem to give OU a kick in the pants as well – a 3-0 SUATS mark after playing the Huskers, with an average score of 60-19. After last weeks lethargic win means the Sooners need to make an impressive win in order to keep their place in the CFB Playoff chase, and they get it here. Consider also that West Virginia is 13-43-1 ATS in games they lose SU as a conference dog. |
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09-25-21 | Southern Miss +45.5 v. Alabama | 14-63 | Loss | -108 | 77 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against college football’s defending national champion in a non-conference FBS game if they are in the middle of a conference sandwich are just 9-24 ATS in this role dating back to 1980. And when they tackle a non-division foe that allows fewer than 21 points per game, they fall off a cliff, going 2-14 ATS. Worst of all, they are 0-7 ATS when favored by more than 15 points in these contests. |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units MSU is 0-3-1 ATS at home in Game Four of the season after beginning the year 3-0. The Huskers own this series, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. In fact, if you put tape over the names of these teams and looked at them from a statistical perspective you might have a difficult time determining which team is the favorite. Nebraska HC Scott Frost is 15-11-1 ATS on the road in his career, including 8-3-1 ATS as a dog of 18 or fewer points. Consider that 3-0 college football home favorites in Game Four who won fewer than 10 games the previous season are 4-17-1 ATS since 2000 when coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week The Wildcats are 19-6 ATS in this series (including 7-0 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points), and Klieman is 10-3 ATS overall at KSU when coming off a win. As for Okie State, Sanders threw only 12 passes on the blue turf, but ran for a TD while senior RB Jaylen Warren rushed for 218 yards and two scores. Mike Gundy will be asked to do something he’s struggled with throughout his career, and that’s bounce back when coming off a SU underdog win. In fact, he’s so bad, the Cowboys are 3-11 ATS in games when coming off a SUATS win and facing a foe with double revenge-exact, including 0-5 ATS the last five |
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09-25-21 | Navy +20 v. Houston | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing on any military team as a dog of 20 or more points off a loss of 16 or more points in which they scored 13 or fewer points if they’re facing a .500 or greater opponent is 16-1 ATS since 1990. |
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09-25-21 | UTSA +3 v. Memphis | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 73 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Yes, the AAC resident Tigers also remained unbeaten, enhancing their dossier as they look to move to a Power Five conference. The problem today is they tend to let down in games after pulling off upsets, going 4-11 ATS at home the next game when they sport a .500 or better record. It could be back to reality here for Memphis today against this imposing invader. Consider that UTSA is 15-6 ATS on the road against non-conference opponents, including 4-0-1 ATS against those coming off a SUATS win |
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09-25-21 | Iowa State v. Baylor +7 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week Iowa State has won three of the last four meetings with Baylor. The Cyclones needed to work for a 38-31 home victory over the two-win Bears in 2020, as Hall rushed for 133 yards on 31 carries and scored three total touchdowns but Purdy threw three interceptions along with three TDs. Purdy has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 736 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while going 2-1 against Baylor. Though the Bears (3-0, 1-0) have outscored their first three opponents 140-34 and beat league-foe Kansas by 38 last weekend, this will be their first true test of the 2021 campaign -- a challenge that coach Dave Aranda and his Baylor squad hope they are prepared to meet. Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon is 51-for-70 for 664 yards with five touchdowns, without being intercepted or sacked. Meanwhile, receivers R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton have combined for 27 catches, 440 yards and hree touchdowns. Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner have totaled 683 rushing yards, with the former posting five touchdowns. Consider that playing on ay .750 or more college football home dog off consecutive wins if they scored 40 or more points in both games if they allowed 12 or fewer point in their last game (Baylor) is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980. |
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09-23-21 | Marshall +7 v. Appalachian State | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While ASU has a good shot at pushing this year’s SU home record to 3-0 with a win here, covering the 7-point number is a little more dicey, especially with the Mountaineers’ 3-7-1 ATS mark at home when coming off a home game, including 0-4-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opponents. Those lousy stats fit right next to Marshall’s current 6-1-1 ATS run as a non-conference road dog. Sure, App State will have revenge on its side this evening, after losing 17-7 as a 5.5-point road favorite last season. The better news is that teams coming off a SU favorite loss, are 66-34-2 ATS, including 36-13-1 ATS as a dog – in addition to 29-10-1 ATS against a foe coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-18-21 | Stanford v. Vanderbilt +12 | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 UnitUpset of the Week Teams who beat USC are 4-15 ATS the following game against non-conference foes coming off a SUATS win. In addition, the Cardinal as a favorite in games after pulling off an upset as an underdog, are 10-22-1 ATS. HC David Shaw checks in at 3-8-2 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win themselves, including 0-8-1 ATS in the last nine games. The Commodores picked up their initial win under new head coach Clark Lea last week, when they surprised the Rams at Colorado State, 24-21, as +6.5-point underdogs. It was the first time Commies put one in the win column since November of 2019. Today they’ll look to make amends for the ugly home loss to East Tennessee State that opened the season two weeks ago, knowing they are 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at home in lined games versus non-conference opponents when coming off a win, including 7-0 SUATS against foes also coming off a win. Also consider that .500 College football teams in Game Three of the season are 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS since 1980 in non-conference games when coming off a SU win as a dog of 14 or more points. |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State -6 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 82 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units SEC dogs of 7 or fewer points are 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS in battles with the Big Ten, including 3-10 ATS of late. Also, HC Bryan Harsin, in his first season in Auburn after leaving Boise State, has a shaky 1-5 SUATS mark versus non-conference foes coming off a SUATS win. Penn State is on a 6-0 SUATS win skein since starting the 2020 season on a 0-5 skid. James Franklin is also 8-4 ATS at home versus SEC opponents – he beat Auburn, 17-13, in his only meeting from his days with Vanderbilt. In addition he is 8-2 SU at home versus undefeated opponents, including 6-1 SUATS when his team is coming off a win. But also consider that Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin is 17-4 SUATS in his career when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 12-0 ATS over the last twelve games. |
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09-18-21 | South Carolina +32 v. Georgia | 13-40 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Georgia is just 3-8 ATS as conference home chalk of more than 17 points. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of more than 15 points, and the Gamecocks are playing hard under new HC Shane Beamer. Also consider that Drilling down, if the 2-0 teams managed to beat the spread in each of their first two games, they’ve gone on to beat the spread only 45% of the time in Game Three. And worse, if they are facing an avenging foe who they defeated in their most recent meeting, they fall to 38-60-2 ATS. Put these same teams up against a conference foe and they erode to 14-37-1 ATS, including 0-11 ATS when favored by more than 23 points. |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 79 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The last time Memphis dressed up as a home dog versus the SEC, they knocked off Ole Miss, 37-24, as a 10-point underdog. Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield also took down UCF and Houston last season, winning and covering as a home dog. And in case you didn’t know, Memphis is 9-3 ATS against SEC foes who own a winning record, including 6-1 ATS at the Liberty Bowl. Finally, consider that College football home dogs in Game Three of the season who scored 40 or more points each in a pair of season-opening wins are 13-2 ATS since 1991. |
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09-18-21 | Alabama v. Florida +15 | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 52 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alabama HC, Nick Saban is 8-18 ATS as a favorite of more than 14 points with Alabama in games in which the Tide’s average rushing offense is less than its opponent’s average rushing offense, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season. Florida head coach Mullen comes in a lofty home dog log (2-0 SUATS with Florida), including a glitzy 5-0 ATS when taking double-digits. Bama has won seven straight games in this series, but then again, Utah had won seven consecutive games against BYU until last week! Saban is also just 30-33 ATS with the Tide as a favorite of 17 or fewer points in SEC games, including 1-4 ATS within the first three games of the season. Getting in and out of the Swamp may not be an easy task for Alabama this Saturday, so we’ll swim against the Tide on the back of the Gators. |
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09-18-21 | Purdue +8 v. Notre Dame | 13-27 | Loss | -108 | 76 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Last week’s narrow victory over the Rockets puts the Fighting Irish at just 1-5 ATS in their last six tries as home chalk. That’s not good considering Purdue is 8-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points, and the Boilermakers have cashed in the last three series meetings. Head coach Jeff Brohm brought back 18 starters from a squad that squandered a 2-0 start last year by going 0-4 SUATS thereafter, and they’ve taken care of business so far against Oregon State and UConn. With Notre Dame just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games versus Big Ten foes, and 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, we just can’t go with Kelly’s heroes this afternoon. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana +4.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Indiana HC, Allen stands 15-7-1 ATS when coming off a win, including 9-1 ATS the last ten. Not many good ATS numbers for Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are a surprising 3-6 ATS as road chalk. With Top 10 teams dropping like flies the last two weeks, we’ll take the Hoosiers to spring yet another upset today. Also consider that Cincinnati HC Fickell is 1-5 SU on the Big Ten road in his career, including 0-5 when his team sports a winning record. |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida -6.5 v. Louisville | 35-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Louisville defense is allowing 402.0 yards per game and is going to have a tough time slowing Dillon Gabriel and the UCF offense, which is averaging 583.0 yards. The Louisville offense, led by QB Malik Cunningham, won’t be able to keep up, much the same way the Cardinals fell short against Ole Miss. I’m on UCF to cover. Consider that UCF is 6-1 ATS as non-conference road chalk, while the Cardinals have slammed into the ground as dogs of 10 or fewer points, currently on a 0-7 ATS dive. |
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09-11-21 | Liberty -4 v. Troy | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Liberty HC Freeze is 8-3 SUATS as a favorite in his college football head coaching career against opponents with an identical record, including 6-0 SUATS in non-conference contests. On the flip side, the Trojans have hit a rough patch, going just 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS the last two-plus seasons, including 2-7 ATS in games when coming off a win. With both teams loaded to the gills with returning talent, look for these numbers to continue here today. |
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09-11-21 | Memphis v. Arkansas State +5.5 | Top | 55-50 | Win | 100 | 78 h 25 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Arkansas State is 8-1 ATS as a nonconference home dog and now move forward with new head coach Butch Jones (popular Blake Anderson left in the off-season for Utah State) and Red Wolves cruised past Central Arkansas, 40-21, in Jones’ first game last week as a -13.5-point favorite. ASU has assumed the role as a “mission team” this season, suffering its first losing season last year after having been a bowler the past ten seasons. Today, they will look to avenge a 37-24 loss at Memphis to start last year’s campaign knowing that Red Wolves head coach Butch Jones is 18-3 SU at home in his career when coming off a win of more than 8 points. Consider that any college football non-conference home dog of 3 or more points in Game Two with 17 or more returning starters if they are seeking revenge against a foe off a win of 7 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990. |
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09-11-21 | Houston v. Rice +8 | Top | 44-7 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 39 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week The Owls seem to have taken on a different demeanor under HC Mike Bloomgren, who has improved his team’s defense each year since coming aboard. Also, Bloomgren is 15-10-1 ATS as a dog with the Owls, including 11-4-1 ATS with revenge. Consider that Game Two dogs returning 17 starters and coming off a SUATS loss of 15 or more points, are 18-2 ATS when facing a foe coming off a loss. |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit NCAAF Game of the Year While the Cyclones are the choice of many to meet Oklahoma |
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09-11-21 | Texas A&M v. Colorado +17 | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 75 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Buffs opened with a 35-7 win over Northern Colorado last week by outgaining the Bears 281-17 on the ground, while getting TDs from four different RBs. Freshman Brendon Lewis started at QB after beating out two other freshmen (last year’s starter Steven Noyer transferred to Oregon State this summer), going 10 of 15 for 102 yards. This Colorado home game will be played at Empower Field in Denver – the home of the Broncos – instead of Boulder, but consider that Buffs HC Dorrell is s 19-8 ATS as a dog in his career, including 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS at home. |
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09-11-21 | Toledo +16.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 74 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units ND HC Kelly is 0-4 ATS in his career versus .500 or greater MAC foes when his team is not coming off a double-digit win, and 4-8 ATS Game Two since 2008, and 5-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite when coming off a win-no-cover. Coach K must also take a closer look at an anemic Notre Dame ground game that averaged a feeble 1.9 yards per rush against FSU. Jason Candle’s Rockets just happen to be 10-4-1 ATS when undefeated and coming off a win of 28 or more points, including 5-0-1 ATS the last six away. And when the Irish find themselves favored by less than 20 points in Game Two of the season, they have no luck at all, currently standing 5-18 ATS in that role of late. And just when you thought we couldn’t heap any more abuse on Kelly? Also consider that the Irish head coach is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points when coming off a win before facing a Big Ten opponent. |
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09-11-21 | Western Kentucky v. Army -6.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Cadet "D" was best in land LY, & holding Georgia State under 180 yards may just signal repeat (allowing |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Norvell was hired last year after the Seminoles suffered consecutive losing seasons after coming up winners the previous 42 years, but the plague continues. Meanwhile, former Miami head coach Randy Shannon was brought in to clean up the defense. QB transfer McKenzie Milton was “fully cleared to play” after playing five seasons, and going 26-6 at UCF before suffering a gruesome right knee injury, after which he spent five months in a wheel chair and on crutches. And 5-star recruit RB Demarkcus Bowman transfers in from Clemson after backing up Travis Etienne. Florida State underclassmen tallied the most player starts (52.3%) in the ACC last season. Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is 27-5 SU and 17-9-1 ATS at home in his college career, including 3-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. In addition, only two of his 5 home losses have been by more than 7 points. |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -3 | 10-3 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Swinney is 5-0 SU in his career in opening games of the season when coming off a bowl loss the previous campaign – by an average winning score of 38-14. Then tack on Clemmie’s 7-1 ATS mark in neutral site games (it was 7-0 until the playoff loss to the Buckeyes). And remember – the Tigers had 26 players make their first-career start during the 2020 season, which tied for the most in the country with Mississippi State, while new QB D.J. Uiagalelei looked mighty impressive in his starting debut against Notre Dame last season. Simply put, Clemson does not have another game on the schedule right now that would offset a tough neutral-site loss to Georgia. Yes, Clemson can still get to the College Football Playoff for the seventh year in a row if the Tigers win out, but they need rivals like Boston College, Florida State and NC State to become quality teams in 2021. Also, playing on any college team in their first game of the season if they lost SU as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season and they’ve won 17 or more of their previous 22 games is 14-2 ATS since 1990. |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +5.5 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Jeff Traylor came to San Antonio with strong credentials, but he blew the roof off the Alamodome in his first season with the Roadrunners in 2020 – leading them to seven wins and a bowl game. The former associate head coach at Texas, SMU and Arkansas was also a four-time Texas High School Coach of the Year, and led his squads to five state championship game appearances, three state titles and a dozen district crowns. Whew! Safe to say UTSA hit a home run with the hire of this legendary high school coach. It’s paid off at the recruiting window, too, where UTSA moved up 31 spots this season. Behind a team loaded to the gills with experience, it only looks to get better. Las Vegas oddsmaker and Power Rating guru Kenny White pegged the Roadrunners as the deepest team with the most returning experience in 2021. We’re all-in with Kenny. Since joining the FBS, UTSA is 18-12-1 ATS as a non-conference dog, including 6-0 ATS when taking fewer than 8 points, and 3-0 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. |
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09-04-21 | UL-Lafayette +8 v. Texas | 18-38 | Loss | -102 | 53 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units A whopping 16 players promptly transferred out of Texas when it was announced that Herman had been replaced. Sarkisian announced that redshirt freshman Hudson Card would be the team’s starting quarterback, as he replaces four-year starter Sam Ehlinger. Card is a four-star prospect, where he was ranked as the second-best dual threat quarterback and seventh-best recruit in Texas in the 2020 recruiting class by 247Sports. Also back for Texas are 5 experienced offensive linemen and a dangerous running back in Bijan Robinson. With the experience card weighing heavily in the Cajuns’ favor today, consider that ULL is 11-3 ATS away as either a dog of a favorite of -7 or more points under Napier, including 4-0 SUATS versus foes who won 8 or fewer games the previous year. |
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09-04-21 | Alabama v. Miami-FL +19.5 | 44-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I realize Alabama always wins these Kickoff Games in blowouts and I'm not saying Miami wins -- although I don't think it's impossible. In terms of returning experience/starters, UM is among the national leaders and Alabama near the bottom. Nick Saban lost a TON of talent off last year's championship team. Sure, he simply reloads with five-stars, but it might take a few games to get going. I'll be stunned if the Tide cover this number. Consider as well that playing on any ’17 returning starter’ underdog in its first game of the season, your win percentage zooms to over 58% with a 98-71-3 ATS winning record. Better yet, put dress these same guys up as double-digit dogs who won 3 or more games the previous season and they become a 40-22-1 ATS winning proposition. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -3 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When Northwestern hosts Michigan State tonight they will do so with a dose of 'double-revenge' on their minds – including a 29-20 loss as -13.5-point chalk at MSU last season. Given the Wildcats 9-1 ATS record as conference favorites of 10 or fewer points the last six years, and a 12-3 ATS overall mark when seeking revenge from a Big Ten loss, we'll opt for the better team and the better coach in this payback this evening. |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +5.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fuente finds himself on the hottest of hot seats in his sixth season-opener at Blacksburg. Recent ATS history is not on UNC’s side here, as Va Tech owns six covers in its last eight games with the Heels, plus the series host is on a 4-0 ATS run. We also prefer the Hokies’ recent 5-1 ATS mark with conference revenge to North Carolina’s surprisingly feeble 1-5 ATS effort as chalk of 7 or |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +14 | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I was waiting for this to get back to 14 jic. Don't think will get higher. Ohio State coach Ryan Day just named CJ Stroud his starting QB. That's fine. Minnesota's Tanner Morgan is one of the best returning QBs in the Big Ten. The Nuts lost so much talent. Yep, they will rock but will take a while. My boy PJ Fleck (Western Michigan) and the Row The Boats bring back 20 starters and will cover if not pull the upset. |
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09-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Tennessee -35 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Will Josh Heupel be the answer for the Vols, who've not only hit the skids (245-118 point deficit 7-of-last-8, & must overcome transfer losses). But if there ever was a tonic, the Falcons provide it, with 0-9 ATS road record, ceding 43 point per game in their last 24 tilts |
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08-28-21 | Hawaii +18 v. UCLA | 10-44 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chip Kelly has a horrible track record in nonconference games, particularly at UCLA where he's 1-5 so far. The lone cover came as a huge dog to Oklahoma, and the two times the Bruins have been favored in noncon games under Kelly they lost outright. I don't think that happens here, but with LSU looming, the Bruins will keep it pretty basic in their opener. |
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08-28-21 | Connecticut v. Fresno State -27.5 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a lot of points to lay, but I think the number is still short and maybe not accounting for a home field that has Connecticut making its longest trip of the season. This is the first opener for the Huskies since 2019. They have lots of experience returning from teams that went 3-21 in 2018-19. They might be rated too high. I believe Fresno State, with its running and passing games and most of their starters returning, buries the Huskies. Fresno State to cover. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line has dropped back to 6.5 at some books, so let's go ahead and jump now. I'm not sure that Nebraska should be a 7-point road favorite over any Big Ten team considering how much it has underachieved under Scott Frost. The Huskers are 5-11 ATS when favored under Frost and were blasted last year at home by Illinois, which should be better-coached in 2021 under Bret Bielema. It's a very veteran team with three super seniors along on the offensive line and a senior QB in Brandon Peters. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +9 v. Alabama | 24-52 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units No one has been able to slow down the combination of QB Mac Jones and WR DeVonta Smith, the latter of which has 105 catches, 1,641 yards and 20 touchdowns. Alabama beat Notre Dame easily, but the Irish were able to hold the Tide to a season-low 31 points, doing so in part by winning the time of possession battle by over seven-and-a-half minutes. We think OSU can follow a similar script, finding success on the ground, keeping ‘Bama’s offense on the sidelined and frustrated by limited opportunities. They’ll score more than the Irish did, but Jones to Smith strike last, and the Tide survive their stiffest test. |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina +7.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 27-41 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month What a way for the bowl season to wind up! Of course, the main sidebar to this one is the Texas A&M Aggies' snub from the playoff committee, denying them a shot at all the marbles. A&M not only has a superb QB/RB combo in Mond (2,050 yards, 19/3) & Spiller (986 yards & 7 TDs in just 8 games), but rank 14th & 3rd in total & rushing "D". However, that unit had better be at its best if it is to slow down the Tar Heels of North Carolina, who field RBs Carter & Williams (combined 2,385 yards & 28 TDs, & NCAA record 544 rushing yards in season-ending rout of Miami), as well as QB Howell: 6,993 passing yards, & 65 TDs with 13 INTs the last 2 years. Barnburner, despite Ag "D". |
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01-02-21 | Kentucky v. NC State +2.5 | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Yes, these squads have met in the past, the far distant past, as the split wins in 1909 & 1970. For the Wildcats of Kentucky, this makes 5 consecutive bowl years under Stoops (first UK coach to accomplish that), despite a losing season. 'Cats are led by RB Rodriguez: 701 yards & 6.9 yards per rush, but KU #121 in overhead production. Ninth bowl in eleven years for the Wolfpack of North Carolina State (5-3 SU/ATS), who opened quickly (4-1 & #22 in the polls), before losing QB Leary. However, they did get back on track, behind Hockman (64%), & RBs Knight & Person (1,371 yards). Definite feeling that the wrong team may be favored in this contest |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State v. Clemson -7 | Top | 49-28 | Loss | -115 | 82 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 8 Unit College Bowl Game of the Year They meet again. For the 3rd time in the last 4 years, the Tigers of Clemson take on the Buckeyes of Ohio State in a National Playoff game, with CU winning & covering the first 2 such encounters: 31-0 (+1½) in the '16 Fiesta, & 29-23 (-2) in last year's Fiesta. As a matter of fact they also met in the '13 Orange Bowl, also won by the Tigers (+2), 40-35. As can be seen above, the Buckeyes have played only six games, due to Covid, but have been rightly included in this powerhouse quartet. They are led, of course, by QB Fields, who is a superb 56 TDs with only 8 INTs the past 2 years, although that may be a bit misleading, as he was 41 TDs with 3 INTs last season (2 interceptions in loss to these Tigers). So 5 picks this year, compared to last year's 40 TD and 1 INT regular season log. The not so hidden gem on OSU's team has to be running back Sermon, who set a school record with 331 rushing yards (11.4 yards per rush) in their 22-10 Big Ten Title win over Northwestern. Shades of Ezekiel Elliott in Ohio State's '14 Championship run? Well, maybe, but note that the Bucks took Wisconsin, 59-0, in that Big Ten Title game. A quick peek at the above stats shows OSU with a +8 turn over edge in just its half-dozen contests. If there were any doubts as to this year's Tiger edition, they were erased with their complete throttling of Notre Dame in the ACC title match, with a 541-263 yard edge behind 322 passing yards from Lawrence, & 124 rushing yards from Etienne (12.4 yards per rush), who was held to 1.6 yards per rush in their first meeting. Lawrence is at his best in the big game, while Fields not necessarily so in such important contests: two 2nd half picks in last year's tilt with Clemson; three INTs in this year's 42-35 win over Indiana, & just 12-of-27 & 2 more picks in Big Ten title win over Northwestern. CU didn't have the answers to LSU last year (who did?), but have otherwise been simply superb plays. Again! |
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01-01-21 | Cincinnati +9.5 v. Georgia | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First meeting between these teams. As our clients are well aware, we've ridden the undefeated Bearcats of Cincinnati this season, with highly profitable results. Only regular season miss by a single point, when they took knee at the Central Florida one in the final minute, after overcoming a 2-TD deficit. QB Ridder leads an enviously balanced "O": 2,090 passing yards, 66%, & 17 TDs with 6 INTs. Eighth bowl in 10 years for Cincinnati (23-point cover vs BC in last year's Birmingham). But can they keep it up vs such a giant? For the Bulldogs of Georgia, this makes it 24 straight bowl seasons (longest current run), & 57th overall. Own the best run "D" in the land, & insertion of QB Daniels is a proven success (9 TDs with only 1 INT). But a bevy of 'Dawgs have opted out, thus a 'Cat call |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -9 | 34-13 | Loss | -119 | 45 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First meeting for this pair, who both are comparative bowl novices, although they have graced the holiday scene a few times. For the Cardinals of Ball State, this marks their first such trip since back-to-back losses in the '12 Beef 'O' Brady, & the '13 GoDaddy. The Spartans of San Jose St: SU & ATS wins in the '15 Cure, & the '12 Military. Just a single SU loss between them this year, with a combined 11-3 ATS log. SJSt: 11-1 ATS run (7-0 SU & ATS TY). Cards finished on a 4-0 spread run (+60½ pts), including holding Buffalo's top-ranked running game to 210 yards below its average, in MAC title game (22-pt cover). Key here is that 119th-ranked Card passing "D", which just be the edge. However, nothing strong. |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa +1 | 28-26 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No, they've never met before. For the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa, just their first bowl since '16, after making the holiday scene 7-of-8 years, from '05 through '12. But when they do make a bowl, they take full advantage: 63, 45, 62, 52, & 55 pts in 5 of those 7, winning all 5 SU, covering 6. But a combined 9-27 SU run ('17-'19), before this year's 6-2 log, covering 7-of-8, & nearly taking 6th-ranked in the AAC title game. Bulldogs (+17) shocked LSU, 44-34, in opener, but just 2-7 since, 'tho QB Rogers has 30+ completions in his L4 games (SEC record), & threw for 336 yards vs Georgia's super "D". But Mississippi State has allowed 31+ pts 6 times this year. |
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12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma -1 | 20-55 | Win | 100 | 35 h 32 m | Show | |
Just the 2nd meeting for these 2, the first coming in the '08 National Title Game, when Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, & a spectacular Florida Gator "D" took down the Sam Bradford led Oklahoma Sooners, 24-14. Remember, Okies entered that one off a scoring barrage of 62, 66, 65, 61, & 62 points. First time in 4 yrs that an OU QB hasn't been in the Heisman picture, as such possibility is owned by Gator QB Kyle Trask, who leads that nation with 4,125 passing yards & 43 TDs with only 5 INTs, & fresh off a 408 passing yard effort in SEC title game vs 'Bama (10-point cover). But only 6 teams allow more first downs than Florida, while always potent Okies, behind frosh QB Rattler (2,784 passing yards & 25 TDs with 7 INTs) have shored up their "D" (17th). Fireworks galore, but OU more balanced |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 42-28 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units What a screwball season for the Badgers of Wisconsin, who have made it to a bowl for the 19th straight season. From a 94-18 point edge in their first 2 contests (+50½ points ATS), to a 76-40 point deficit in their remaining 4 games (-70½ points ATS). QB Mertz electrified everyone in his debut: 20-of-21 (5 TDs). But he has gone only 3 TDs with 5 INTs since, as the Badgers rank just 105th in passing "O" (93rd in total "O"). Their "D" is another matter: #1. The Demon Deacons of Wake Forest go bowling for the 5th straight year: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS. Move it with the best them, behind QB Hartman (10 TDs with only 1 INT), & lead the land in turnover edge (+23). Again, we'll grab the TD |
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12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -9.5 | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 59 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Of course these 2 have met multiple times, when they were in the Big 8 together, before the Buffaloes of Colorado jumped ship for the Pac 12 in 2011, a move that hasn't exactly been good, as this is just the 2nd bowl appearance for CU, since that change, namely a 38-8 loss to Oklahoma State, in the '16 Alamo, as 3-point chalks. In this one, they're pinning their hopes on running back Brussard (813 yards & 3 TDs, in just 5 games: 6.3 yards per rush). But Buffs have allowed 30+ points in 18-of-21 games. Longhorns of Texas are led by QB Ehlinger, who has amassed 11,267 yards & 93 TDs with 27 INTs over the past 4 years. In likely his last game, he won’t be going out with a loss. Note Steers with 20, 20, & 21 point covers in their last 3 bowl games |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Miami-FL | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 78 h 38 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month No, not the 1st time that the Cowboys of Oklahoma State have faced off against the Hurricanes of Miami, but the 2nd, as UM (-36) nosed out Ohio State, 40-3, in 1991. By the way, UM went 12-0 that year (National Champion). From '86 thru '92, Miami finished 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, & 3rd in the nation. Wow!! Fifteen straight bowls for Oklahoma State, under Gundy (9-5 SU & ATS). Have had to replace last year's top rusher (Hubbard, who opted out), although Jackson a decent 5.7 yards per rush, while QB Sanders an anemic 10 TDs with 8 INTs, but WR Wallace 16.5 yards per catch. 'Canes brought in QB King from Houston, & he delivered: 2,573 passing yards (22 TDs with only 5 INTs), with 520 rushing yards. But UM was mauled, 62-26, by North Carolina, in finale, allowing school-record 778 yards & 554 rushing yards! |
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12-26-20 | Liberty +7 v. Coastal Carolina | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These former Big South outfits have met many times, with 7-7 SU split, between the Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina, & the Flames of Liberty (most recently in '16, when CC (NL) rolled 42-7, in its 3rd double digit win season in 4 years (3-9, 5-7, & 5-7 years since jumping to FBS status in '17). But 14 starters, including QB McCall: 2,170 passing yards 23 TDs with 2 INTs, & running back Marable: 844 rushing yards returned this year &, they're 1 of 4 teams in the nation with no losses, ranking 9th in the polls, proving worth with 22-17 win over BYU, holding prolific Coog "O" scoreless over L27:28. The 23rd ranked Flames are just a 15-14 loss to NC State from matching CC's perfect log. QB Willis: 2,040 passing yards & 20 TDs with only 4 INTs (3 picks vs NC State), along with 807 rushing yards. Call upset |
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12-26-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UTSA +14 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The virus certainly made its mark on this day, which had originally scheduled six games, thus dropping the Gasparilla, Independence, & Guaranteed Rate Bowls. What a year. So sad. This one has the Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns & Roadrunners of UTSA meeting for the first time. For La-La, this marks its 8th bowl in 10 years, winning & covering 4 straight, while hosting the New Orleans Bowl ('11-'14), but just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS since. QB Lewis (2,128 yards) has thrown a TD pass in 17 straight games. Cajuns a 132-51 point edge in L3 games (+40 pts ATS). For the 'Runners, note running back Sincere McCormick's 1,345 yards (748 yards after contact). Utsa rarely fades, & is only 12 pts from a 14-2 spread run and a solid 9-3 spread mark its last 12 as a dog. We'll grab generous spot |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +9.5 v. Houston | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rainbows of Hawaii take their usual place in a Christmas Eve bowl, but, for once, they aren't in the role of hosts (8 Hawaii Bowl appearances in the last 19 years). So it's off to New Mexico. Oh, sorry, it's off to Texas, with the New Mexico Bowl being played in Frisco, Texas. Incredible. The 'Bows are led by QB Cordeiro, who has thrown for 1,947 yards, with just an 11/6 TD/INT ratio. However, he lives for the long TD pass, and he can run it (4.2 yards per rush). Only Wyoming & San Diego State have contained that 'Bow offense. The Cougars of Houston are led by QB Tune, who is similar to Cordeiro. Hawaii: 32+ points 6 of last 10 outings, with Houston allowing 30+ points in 19 of last 25 games. Hawaii has seen much tougher defenses than this and Cordeiro will have some opportunities. I do believe this Bowl game will be a lot closer than what this spread would suggest |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -5.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans Bowl Book Nailer These 2 have never met, although they both are bowl tested. Third holiday classic in 4 years for the Eagles of Georgia Southern, who are again among the premier rushing yardage squads, placing 9th, or better, in 5 of their 7 years in the FBS. Their opponents in this one, namely the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech own the longest active winning bowl streak in the land, 6 straight, with 5 of the 6 coming by 14 points, or more (7-1 ATS bowl run). So why not keep it going? Well, replacing 14 starters has them a shadow of former selves, with just 98 rushing yards per game (119th). QB Anthony (1,479 yards) is decent, but can't erase 52-10 windup loss to TCU. Close to home, but Eagle call. |
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12-22-20 | Central Florida v. BYU -6 | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Third meeting between these 2, with first 2 going to the home team by 7 & 7 points. By the way that the BYU Cougars got out of the gate: 9 straight wins, with a 367-110 point edge in their first 8 lined games (+110 points ATS), & a 34½ point cover at Boise, they looked unstoppable, moving to #8 in the polls. But a trip to Coastal Carolina cost them dearly (22-17 loss, scoring just 3 points in 2nd half). QB Wilson is their meal ticket: 3,267 passing yards & 30 TDs with only 3 INT, with BYU ranking 8th & 9th in total "O" & "D". Same has been said about the offense of the Knights of Central Florida, who rank 2nd, 5th, & 2nd in passing, scoring, & total "O", behind QB Gabriel (3,353 passing yards & 30 TDs with 4 INTs). Edge in this one is obvious: only 10 schools have a worse "D" than UCF |
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12-19-20 | Alabama -17 v. Florida | Top | 52-46 | Loss | -109 | 104 h 51 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit SEC Championship Game of the Week No doubt, some of the glitter has come off this one, with last week's incredible Gator loss to Lsu (57-yard field goal off penalty in L0:23), but still another 609 yards. Trask now 3,717 yards & 40 TDs with only 5 INTs, but Florida 100th in rushing. 'Tide: 41+ points in L10 games. Jones 27 TDs with 3 INTs, 3,321 yards, 76%. We don't jump this ship. |
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12-19-20 | Boise State v. San Jose State +6.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units A completely rare happening when the spread on a game between these 2 squads comes in a less than a TD, with 3 of their last 5 meetings showing the Broncos as 36, 40, & 31 point chalks. Not the case this time around, as Boise, although 5-1 straight up, has covered just once since October, while ranking 107th in rushing "O", as well as 86th in rushing "D". The Spartans rank 13th in scoring "D", have covered 10-of-11, & are undefeated, with their 2 road games resulting in 22 & 8½ point covers |
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12-19-20 | Clemson v. Notre Dame +10.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -109 | 99 h 16 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit ACC Mismatch of the Day Rematch Tigers, losing in 2 OTs 6 weeks ago, with a 205-32 rushing yard deficit. No Lawrence, though Ugalaleilei threw for 439 yards (2 TDs with 0 INTs). Etienne: 1.6 yards per rush. Three Clemson turn overs were key. ND: 511-262 point edge L14 games, & a 254-125 point edge L6 outings. Tigers post-season kings, but tight. |
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12-19-20 | Texas A&M -13.5 v. Tennessee | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 69 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units There’s no buying in to Tennessee’s 42-point outburst last week against Vanderbilt. They still rank 109th nationally in scoring at 20.0 points per game, and had been held to 21 or less in six straight games, all losses, prior. The Vols are woeful against the pass, ranking 105th, and that should allow Aggies’ uneven QB Kellen Mond to get off to a good start. He’s topped 300 yards twice and thrown 3+ scores four times, and once getting his team out to a lead, the Aggies can lean on their 30th-ranked rushing attack. Outside of the conference championship games, no one has more to play for than A&M, who beat Florida and only lost to Alabama. A statement win where they impress on both sides of the ball is needed, and that’s what the Aggies turn in |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +5.5 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -108 | 96 h 36 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Big-12 Championship Game of the Week What a thorn in the side of the Sooners, have these Cyclones been (5-0 ATS, +85 points). On a 7-1 ATS run, behind QB Purdy (5 TDs last year), & RB Hall (#1 in land). Sooners always get this one (8-0 SU in Big12 title games), & a 48-16 points per game edge in their L4 games. Could be an epic. |
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12-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo -13 | 38-28 | Loss | -118 | 77 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Katie, bar the door! These 2 sure can light up the scoreboard, with Bulls at 51.8 points per game (rank 1st in scoring & rushing "O" (Patterson: 18 TDs), & on an 18-5 ATS MAC run. Cards on 5-0 SU run, & are 6-0 in the dog role, with Plitt at 7 TDs with 1 INT the L2 weeks. But needed TD in L0:29 to take Western Michigan. Bulls’ RB Jaret Patterson is the best player on the field. Buffalo has won all of their games by at least 19, including a 31-point win over Miami (OH), who beat Ball State. The Bulls play keep away and limit the Cardinals passing attack. |
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12-12-20 | Virginia +2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 15-33 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit ACC Game of the Month We're well aware of the fact that the Hokies are 15-1 SU in this series. But 4 straight losses for Tech (-52 points ATS) who've allowed 30+ points in 16-of-21 games. Cavs are just the opposite: 4-0 lately, & at 39.3 points per game in L3 lined games. Armstrong: 287 passing yards & 130 rushing yards in last week's rout of BC. |
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12-12-20 | Auburn -6 v. Mississippi State | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a chalk series, as the Bulldogs are on a 4-12-1 ATS run, while dropping their last 6 home games ATS. Their only win following opening week rout of Lsu, came against 0-8 Vanderbilt. The SU winner has covered all 9 Tiger contests, & yet another |
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12-12-20 | Navy v. Army -7 | 0-15 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Recent history in this epic series has the dog on a 7-2 spread run. Before the triple option, it was all Middies, but Cadets now own a 6-1-1 series run, despite last year's 31-7 Navy rout. But Perry has departed, with Middies unheard of 46th in rushing. Army? Try #3 in run "O", & #4 in total "D" |
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