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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Missouri -14 | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 units Defensively, Missouri has allowed 26 points or less in four straight, including a near miss at home against Georgia (26-22), and a road trip to Florida, where they fell by seven as double-digit underdogs. QB Brady Cook looks to be evolving, completing 67.7 percent of his passes over the last two weeks, while running backs Nathaniel Peat and Cody Schrader are both averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry, which should play well against Vandy’s 87th-ranked rush defense that’s allowing 4.7 ypc and 10 touchdowns in conference. Missouri is winless in conference, and have to get on track, another reason we should expect max effort from a rested side |
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10-22-22 | UCLA +6.5 v. Oregon | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Amazingly OU West is terrible at defending their turf in a triple revenge match, going 0-4 ATS against a foe seeking to finally win one. Oregon is also on shaky ground in this series when coming off an ATS win of 13 or greater, going 0-5 ATS. The Bruins have a large stack of good numbers: 6-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points, 3-1 ATS off a home dog win – and Chip Kelly’s gambling numbers are even more intimidating. He’s 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS away off a win as a college coach. Consider as well that 6-0 dogs are 17-5-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win of 10 points or more. |
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10-22-22 | Toledo v. Buffalo +7.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show |
MAC game of the Month Rating: 5 Units After a slow 0-3 start, the Bulls have kicked their heels and ride a 4-0 SUATS win skein entering this contest. The offense has averaged 36.5 PPG in those four games, while the defense has held its last two opponents to just 7 points apiece. Buffalo in this series is 5-1 ATS of late, including 3-0 ATS at UB Stadium. Buffalo is also 12-4-1 ATS as a home dog, including 5-0-1 ATS versus greater than .700 opposition. Head coach Maurice Linguist, had sunk to 4-11 with the Bulls until they went on their recent 4 game rampage. Buffalo is 7-2 SU and 8-0-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS favorite win. Also, consider that playing on any college football home dog who is 4-0 SUATS in its last four games if they were favored in their last game is 22-9 ATS since 1980, including 20-4 ATS if they are facing a foe coming off consecutive wins.. |
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10-15-22 | Clemson -3.5 v. Florida State | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units FSU is 1-4 ATS at home in a conference revenge game, 1-4 ATS before the Bye week, 2-7 ATS in Game 7. Tigers haven't posted those eye-popping winning margins as was a weekly happening in the Watson & Lawrence glory years, but just keep getting it done, with QB Uiagalelei improving by the week, standing at a sweet 14/2 TD/INT ratio. Clemson is 4-0 ATS in the last four of this series. Clemson is clearly improving and a groggy bunch of Seminoles hungover from last week is just what the Tigers should munch on to remain unbeaten. |
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10-15-22 | LSU +2.5 v. Florida | Top | 45-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The bottom line is that Brian Kelly will need to do a better job or his one-game deficit in the SEC West will be blowing in the wind. At least he helps himself by bringing along a 21-12 ATS record as a road dog, including 9-1 ATS off an ATS loss of 9 or more points. LSU has also held its own in the last nine series contests with Florida, going 6-2-1 ATS overall and 3-1 SUATS away. New Gators head coach Billy Napier looks to be behind the 8-ball here, as the host team has gone 1-4 ATS in five lined games under Napier this season. Florida also hasn’t fared well of late in home games when playing with SEC revenge, going just 1-4 ATS. Consider finally, that Napier stands 5-11-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS versus .666 or greater opponents. |
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10-15-22 | Arkansas v. BYU | Top | 52-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
Inter-Conference Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units First, BYU in the favorite role at home is 2-6 ATS when the spread is under 6 points. Second, Arkansas is 5-1 ATS as a dog of 6 or less. Third, the Razorbacks are a sharp 4-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Even better, or worse depending on whom you’re rooting for, a top-notch SEC underdog coming off losses to Bama and Texas A&M finds itself 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in this situation. Consider that the Cougars have not faired well versus the SEC going 1-8 ATS versus SEC foes since 1990. |
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10-15-22 | Penn State +7 v. Michigan | 17-41 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Penn State has gone 2-0 SUATS so far in road trips this season while Michigan’s sole cover in three home games came against pitiful Connecticut. Penn State is also 4-1-1 ATS as dogs versus an undefeated conference opponent, and head coach James Franklin chips in with a money-making 37-18-1 ATS mark when coming off consecutive wins. Additionally the Lions bring in a 21-4 SU and 17-6-1 ATS record when undefeated, including 14-2-1 ATS when facing winning foes. To Cap it off, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is 2-11 ATS in his CFB career in games involving undefeated opponents, including 0-9 ATS the last nine games. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas is a miserable 1-8 ATS as double-digit chalk in conference games. On the flip side, the Cyclones are 6-0 ATS as dogs of 3-plus points when coming off a loss, and following a tough 1-point loss at home against Kansas State last week, the Cyclones suddenly find themselves with their backs to the college bowl wall. That’s where head coach Matt Campbell comes to the rescue, as he is 10-1 ATS as a double-digit dog in conference games, including 10-0 ATS versus .500 or greater foes. |
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10-15-22 | Auburn v. Ole Miss -14.5 | 34-48 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Ole Miss doesn't have any reason to look past Auburn despite the Tigers' .500 record and struggling offense. The meat of the Rebels schedule awaits them after this game with matchups at LSU, at Texas A&M and finally at home against Alabama. The Rebels need a convincing win against Auburn as they ready for a make-or-break run in the SEC. Ole Miss's ground game should easily overwhelm Auburn's 62nd ranked rushing defense and the new wrinkle of a solid passing attack will likely be unveiled yet again when Auburn attempts to stack the box. Kiffin has never been known for his modest goals so don't expect the Ole Miss taskmaster to take his foot off the gas in this game. |
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10-14-22 | Navy +12.5 v. SMU | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SMU is only 1-6 ATS in Weekday games and 1-4 ATS versus opponents with double revenge, but they’re also 0-7 ATS as conference home favorites when coming off consecutive losses. That’s a perfect set-up for Navy’s mind boggling 15-0-1 ATS as a dog off a win versus losing foes. |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida -23 | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Owls are just 1-4 ATS in this series and riding a 0-6 SUATS losing skein in their last six road games. Ugh. Meanwhile, UCF’s program continues to live the high life (nine bowls in last ten seasons), though fans were somewhat disappointed in Gus Malzahn’s 9-4 debut last year after finishing 41-8 the previous four seasons. They were also quite upset when the Knights took the biggest fall in the AP Poll two weeks ago, snapping a 33-week streak of being ranked. However, UCF has won three straight and with an extra week to prepare, should be in a salty mood here tonight. Since they’ve beaten the Owls by 109 points in the last three meetings, we look for more of the same this evening. |
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10-08-22 | Washington State +13.5 v. USC | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 1 m | Show |
PAC-12 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Washington State is 7-2 ATS as the visitor in this series and 12-3 ATS in Game One of back-to-back road games. Looking up another Washington State stat yields: 7-0 ATS on the road against double-digit unbeaten favorites. USC makes this decision easier by being 2-11 ATS in Game 6, 1-6 ATS home versus conference triple vengeance, and 2-6 ATS in game two of a back-to-back conference affair at home. Add to that the risk of SC looking ahead to a big-time revenge matchup with Utah next week and the LA crowd might be distracted. |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina +3.5 v. Miami-FL | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mack Brown is a soothing 7-2 ATS with the Heels against rested foes, including 5-0 ATS the last five. Word out of Coral Gables is there is more wrong with this Miami team than just QB Tyler Van Dyke, who has lost a ton off his fastball and is missing wide receivers at an alarming rate this season. The honeymoon appears to be over with 1st year head coach Mario Cristobal after the shocking loss to Middle Tennessee, which won’t be helped by his 4-8 ATS record when coming off a SU favorite loss. Most important, playing against any college football favorite coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 20 or more points if they’re facing a .400 or greater foe is 44-25-2 ATS. |
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10-08-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma +7 | 49-0 | Loss | -107 | 76 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Texas is 1-3 ATS in quadruple revenge games. Also, the Horns have been the dog in each of the last 13 games in this series, which makes the Sooners a dog and we simply can’t ignore these ill-at-ease underdogs as the Oklahoma Sooners are 19-1 SU in games off a loss in which they allowed 36 or more points when facing sub .750 opponents. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 2-10 ATS as a favorite in his career off a SUATS win when facing a .500 or greater foe, including 0-8 ATS If his team scored fewer than 50 points in the win. |
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10-08-22 | Purdue +3 v. Maryland | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 68 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm is back in his groove as a dog of 4 or more points where he stands 21-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Maryland’s 4-1 SU start under head coach Mike Locksley is no mirage, as the Terps are the only team to actually threaten Michigan with defeat this season. Unfortunately for Maryland, coach Locksley has an 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS mark in his career versus foes coming off consecutive wins. We liked the way Brohm’s bunch handled the pressure of the big stage against Minnesota, and with 77 YPG the better defense, we’re back on the beat with the Boilermakers this week. |
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10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 68 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Teams who beat Oklahoma are 4-12-1 ATS the following game as a favorite versus opponents coming off consecutive wins. KU is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight series meetings with the Frogs, and the series host has cashed five of the last six tickets. Consider that 5-0 teams in Game Six tend to do well as dogs, going 56-35-2 ATS overall. Additionally, when they take on an opponent that scored 48 or more points in its last contest, they skyrocket to 16-3-1 ATS. With TCU just 2-6 ATS of late as a Big 12 road favorite or road dog of 4 or fewer points, We'll take Kansas. |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU +3 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 21 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Kelly has been a home hero, going 18-7 SU at home versus undefeated foes, including 13-3 in games in which his troops allow fewer than 21 PPG. LSU is also 5-1 ATS versus conference opponents with rest, and 15-8 ATS as a home dog when coming off an ATS loss, including 4-0 SUATS over the last four. Last week’s win over Auburn was ugly, as Kelly’s team fell behind early, 17-0, before getting it into gear. Tennessee has solid wins against Florida and |
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10-01-22 | NC State v. Clemson -6.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week Rating; 4 units Both teams are 4-0 on the season, this marks the Wolfpack’s first ACC tilt while the Tigers bring a 2-0 conference record into this affair. Recent ATS history offer full support to Clemson here, as they are 7-1 ATS as conference chalk of 8 or fewer points, plus the series host has cashed in three of the last four. That’s pretty strong considering State’s 1-7 ATS failure as a dog of 8 or fewer points, and a 1-4 ATS mark playing away from Raleigh after a non-conference home game. Most important, though, is the fact that the Wolfpack tripped up the Tigers, 27-21, as 10.5-point home dogs last season. With Dabo revenge in play here, we’ll lay the points as he has excelled in conference games when seeking revenge, going 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS in his career, including a perfect 6-0 SUATS as a single-digit favorite. |
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10-01-22 | Northwestern +25.5 v. Penn State | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Northwestern has won the stats in every game they’ve played this season. The Lions find themselves laying more than 3 TDs for the third time in the last four games, and they’re currently 0-5 ATS as conference favorites of 18 or more points. In fact, head coach James Franklin has struggled as big chalk, going 9-12 ATS as a favorite of 24 or more points, including 2-7 ATS in conference games. After 16-plus years at the helm in Evanston, head coach Pat Fitzgerald has seen it all, and he knows his team has gone 5-1 ATS of late in their initial Big Ten road games of the season. The line hasn’t moved much from the PSU -25.5 opener, so we’ll grab the big points as Northwestern looks to improve to 5-0 ATS away after three straight home games. |
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10-01-22 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Baylor | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Game Four rested teams who find themselves seeking revenge are 38-15 ATS in conference games when coming off a double-dig win. This week we find Oklahoma State fitting the bill. Better yet, put these rested revengers up against with foes coming off a win of 6-plus points and they zoom to 23-5 ATS in this role. |
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10-01-22 | Kentucky +7 v. Ole Miss | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Ole Miss’ run success has been impressive, but Kentucky should be able to at least slow it, as they allow 3.7 yards per carry and three scores to date. That should force the Rebels to throw more than they’ve shown, and we think they haven’t shown it because they either aren’t confident, or aren’t capable. Consider that the Rebels are 0-3 ATS vs Double Conference Revenge, and strangely 3-10 ATS in the second of back-to-back games at the Oxford campus. |
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10-01-22 | Georgia State v. Army -8 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Game Four of the College Football season is often times a critical stepping-stone for teams who play with a week of rest. This is especially true for teams that are either playing at home off a win, or in conference games when seeking revenge. These reinvigorated home teams take the field off a win with a week of rest in Game Four of the season, they are a super-strong 99-67-2 ATS overall since 1980, including 21-9-1 ATS when they sport a .333 win percentage. Army finds itself in this desirable role on Saturday. And better yet, they improve to 14-3-1 ATS in this role when coming off a win of 17-plus points, including 8-0 SUATS in they won 8 or more games last season. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa +10.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Big-10 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The 23 points given up by the Hawkeyes in their first four games are the fewest scored on the team since 1966. In addition, Iowa will be looking to avenge last season’s loss to Michigan,42-3, in the Big Ten title game. things to consider are that College football home dogs like Iowa, who won 10-plus games the previous season, are 3-0 ATS in Game Five versus undefeated foes playing their first road game of the season. Additionally, 4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in Game Five versus foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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09-30-22 | New Mexico v. UNLV -13.5 | 20-31 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lobo demise (9-41 SU, 10-27-1 ATS) may have actually crested with last week's 38-0 loss to LSU, with a stat debacle that saw 28-2 FD, & 633-88 TY deficits. Over its last 13 lined games, New Mexico has a 379-120 pt shortage, with its lone cover this season coming against a Unlv squad that turned it over no less than 7 times. Rebels have turned their spread fortunes around, with current 11-4-1 ATS run, covering their last home game by 28½. Lobos with just a 2-TD spot are a definite go-against in this. |
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09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3 | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Huskies look like they’ll be among the finalists for a berth in the season-ending Pac-12 championship games, our biggest concern is this is their first road outing after opening the season with four straight games at Husky Stadium. Another problem for DeBoer is the Bruins’ recent series domination, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS at home, including 4-0 ATS as a dog, as well as 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with a win percentage of .700 or greater. UCLA practically matches the Huskies in the stats, with each team gaining 500-plus yards and surrendering less than 300 yards this campaign. Washington is also a horrible 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games with conference revenge. Additionally the Huskies are 3-9 ATS as Pac-12 road chalk. Finally, 4-0 College football favorites in their first road game are 1-7 ATS since 1980 in game five versus foes coming off consecutive wins. |
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09-24-22 | Kansas State +12.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
Big-12 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units K-State has covered the last three matchups in this series, and head coach Chris Kleiman is 7-2 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points, including 4-0 ATS when taking more than a dozen points. There is no question that the Wildcats have struggled offensively this season, but the loss to Tulane last week was truly an aberration for star RB Deuce Vaughn, as the diminutive junior failed to score a TD for the first time in 10 games. Kleiman’s defense, however, is very good. Consider , teams playing AWAY off their first loss of the season find point spread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 139-106-7 ATS dating back to 1980. When these teams are also off an ATS loss (Kansas State), they improve to 121-78-4 ATS in these situations. And if these teams are coming off a SU favorite loss they ratchet up to 69-35-2 ATS, including 38-13-1 ATS as a dog, in addition to 31-10-1 ATS against a foe coming off a SUATS win – and a 20-6 ATS combo as a dog against foes coming off a SUATS win. |
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09-24-22 | UNLV -2.5 v. Utah State | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rebels have tied their win total from last year already and now get to try to take revenge after last year’s last minute loss. USU hasn’t shown the excellent pass attack that drove them to success in 2021 as they are 115th in passing yards and 119th in yards per play. QB Luke Bonner’s YPA has dropped from 8.4 to 6.4 and he has a 3-3 TD-INT ratio.That could be a big problem because if Utah State’s rushing defense continues to be as bad as it has been, he won’t be able to dig them out of a hole. They are 126th in rushing defense at 240.7 ypg allowed and 102nd in yards per play allowed. UNLV’s two top RBs each average over 6 YPC and have shown big play ability. Add in a QB completing over 70% of his passes at a 9.1 YPA clip and you have a tough mountain to climb for the Aggies. |
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09-24-22 | Florida +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Gators own a huge statistical edge in this series, going 5-1 SUATS the last six meetings, 11-1-1 ATS in Game 4, and a whopping: 16-1 ATS in the last 17 games against Tennessee. The Vols are 0-4 SUATS in Game 4’s, and 1-8 ATS as SEC home favorites of 10 or more points. Tennessee is also 6-8 SU and 4-10 ATS at Rocky Top coming off a home game, and a depressing 0-5 SUATS against SEC foes coming off a win. To cap it off Florida is 14-2 SU and 14-1-1 ATS in this series when Tennessee is coming off a win of 10 or more. |
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09-24-22 | Missouri +7 v. Auburn | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Auburn's first major test was a miserable failure last week, as the 41-12 loss to Penn State was the Tigers’ fifth straight to a Power Five team. Tigers have not had a single defensive takeaway this season through three games. Harsin is 6-11 ATS when favored and coming off a loss, including 2-7 ATS at home. Consider that home teams coming off their first loss of the season is 139-154-4 ATS since 1980. And if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial loss they fall to 45-69-2 ATS. When they are facing a conference opponent, they plummet to 20-39-1 ATS. And when these same teams are taking on conference foes and coming off a loss of more than 21 points, they bottom out at 10-26 SU and 10-25-1 ATS. |
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09-24-22 | Clemson -7 v. Wake Forest | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney just signed a new contract extension worth big bucks, and he knows his team can overcome a slow start to get back in the CFB Playoff discussion. Swinney stands 48-5 SU and 34-18-1 ATS in conference games when coming off a win of 20-plus points and an ATS loss, including a 19-5 ATS record away. Consider that Wake has fallen asleep as a home dog against foes coming off consecutive wins, going just 3-34 SU and 10-27 ATS. |
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09-23-22 | Boise State -16 v. UTEP | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Broncos hit the highway for the third time in four games tonight surrendering just 230 YPG (No. 10 in the nation), pretty amazing when we consider that Boise State is usually known for its high-scoring offense. Game Fours have worked out well recently for them, who are on a 4-0 SUATS streak with an average win margin of 21.5 PPG. A 1-10 SU failure in Game Fives won’t work here for the Miners, not when they’re 0-6 ATS in this series, and just 23-54 ATS in home losses as an underdog. |
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09-17-22 | UTSA +12.5 v. Texas | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UTSA is 20-8 SU under Traylor, with only two losses by more than 14 points. He is also 18-5 SU in games in which his team has an equal or better overall record than the opponent, including 6-2 ATS as a dog. Consider as well that Traylor is is 17-9 ATS with this team, including 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS away versus non-conference foes. |
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09-17-22 | Michigan State v. Washington -3.5 | 28-39 | Win | 100 | 79 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units MSU is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games versus the Pac-12, as well as 1-8 ATS in Game Three’s when coming off a victory. Huskies are 5-1 versus the number as non-conference chalk of less than 10 points, 9-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Game Three, and 12-1 SU and 8-4-1 ATS as a host versus Big Ten opposition. Hang at home with the Huskies. To conclude, if the 2-0 teams managed to beat the spread in each of their first two games, they’ve gone on to beat the spread only 47% of the time in Game Three. And worse, if they are on the road they fall to 66-90 ATS. |
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09-17-22 | Marshall v. Bowling Green +16.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 15 m | Show |
Mismatch of the Week Rating: 4 units Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS at home in this series and this 6th most experienced team in the nation. Meanwhile, Marshall has struggled on the road when they visit the MAC, going 11-25-1 ATS and 1-5 ATS when coming off a win where they beat a 21 point plus spread. In addition, double-digit ATS winners that are 2-0 road favorites slip badly the following week, going 3-10 ATS the past five years in game 3’s. Consider as well that playing against any college football favorite who upset Notre Dame in its last game if they beat the spread by 17 or more points in the win is 12-1-1 since 1992. |
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09-17-22 | Penn State v. Auburn +3 | Top | 41-12 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 4 m | Show |
Inter-Conference Game of the Month Rating; 5 Units Coach Bryan Harsin after a rough first season, is 27-7 in his first four games of the season and Auburn is 10-2 ATS as home dogs against undefeated foes. Nittany Lions leader James Franklin is 3-10-1 ATS away vs a team coming off back to back wins. PSU being 2-7 ATS vs. the SEC is another reason we’re going with the Tigers. |
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09-17-22 | Western Kentucky +6.5 v. Indiana | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 68 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 units Finally a decent game from the Hoosiers, behind 155 rushing yards from Shivers. But that was vs Idaho, so note being held to 32 rushing yards s vs Illinois. Indy on 2-12 ATS run, with both covers by a single point. 'Toppers on an 8-1-1 spread run, & 10-1 SU skein (41+ pts 10-of-11 games). |
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09-16-22 | Air Force -16 v. Wyoming | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units I know that's a lot of points to lay on the road, but who is going to stop Air Force this season on the ground. They struggled last week with three turnovers against Colorado and still managed to put up 41 points. Having an experienced quarterback like Daniels is crucial to the option offense. There's no defense that he hasn't seen in defending the option. Wyoming has played three games already and is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. The Falcons are 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS after crushing Colorado last week 41-0 as a 17-point home favorite. |
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09-10-22 | Baylor v. BYU -3 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 57 h 5 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units Cougars are 15-7 ATS in home openers, including 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS as a favorite of more than 2 points. The host in this series winning and covering the last three matchups, while BYU is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Big 12 opponents. To clinch it, Baylor is 2-10 ATS in its first away game of the season, including 0-6 ATS when not favored by more than 14 points. |
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09-10-22 | Boston College +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units With at least four games to come against ranked opponents, last weeks loss deals a major blow to the Eagles’ path back to bowl eligibility under 3rd-year coach Jeff Hafley. A long-term 18-7-1 ATS record as conference road dogs since 2013, including 7-1 ATS when both teams are coming off a loss, plus a series spread mark of 8-3 ATS in the last eleven games (4-1 ATS in the last five) means it's a BC call tonight. To seal the deal consider that beaten bowlers in Game Two who lost their season-opening game as a favorite are 54-72 ATS in these games, and if they happen to be seeking revenge in this contest, they dip to 8-17 SU and 6-19 ATS in these frays – including 2-13 SU and 1-14 ATS if they scored 24 or fewer points in the loss. |
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09-10-22 | Kansas +13.5 v. West Virginia | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 52 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units West Virginia, the Mountaineers are recovering from losing the Backyard Brawl last week to Pitt. The numbers are not favorable for head coach Neal Brown, whose seat is heating up more rapidly each passing week. Try 7-11-2 ATS as a home favorite of 9 or more points on for size, including 3-8-2 ATS at home. If that is not enough consider that Game Two bowlers off a season opening defeat when laying points, are just 107-117-2 ATS. To make it worse, if these teams are facing a conference foe that is coming off a loss they dip to 7-18 ATS. |
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09-10-22 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Iowa | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units One of these 2 teams has an offense, & it ain't the Hawkeyes, who finished 121st in the nation in that category last year. How about Iowa's opening 7-3 win over So Dakota St was the first time that a team scored 7 points with no accompanying TD in forever (1 FG & 2 safeties). The Cyclones have been a premier dog play, standing at 23-9 in that situation over the past few years, & have unveiled QB Dekkers (25-of-31 last wk). Revenge. |
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09-10-22 | Alabama -19.5 v. Texas | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 7 m | Show | |
CFB Play of the Day Texas is a paltry 2-9 ATS in its last 11 SEC wars, and not after gaining just 383 total yards in the blowout of ULM. In addition, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 1-10 ATS in games when both teams are coming off a SUATS win if his team scored 35-plus points in its last game. To cap it all off when coming off a season-opening win of more than 44 points, AP Preseason No. 1 ranked teams (Alabama this season) are 7-0 SUATS in Game Two since 1980 – by an average score of 49-8. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville v. Central Florida -5 | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units We’ll stick with UCF’s 6-1 ATS mark of late as home chalk of fewer than 7 points, as opposed to Louie’s 2-9 ATS dog log in that same price range. . In addition, beaten bowlers in Game Two who lost their season-opening game as a favorite become sluggish propositions in Game Two. That’s confirmed by their 54-72 ATS mark in these games, a role in which Louisville, will find themselves this week. |
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09-04-22 | Florida State +3 v. LSU | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 99 h 23 m | Show |
NCAAF Play of the Day 4 Units Kelly hasn’t exactly been an ATM early in the season, going 0-3 ATS in season openers the last three years, and 5-13-2 ATS in the first three games of the year versus foes that won 5 or fewer games the previous season, including 0-5 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points. Meanwhile, Norvell is 16-9 SU and 11-7 ATS versus non-conference opponents, including 7-0 ATS the last seven contests, and 7-1 ATS during the first three games of the season. |
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09-03-22 | SMU v. North Texas +10 | 48-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units North Texas HC Littrell is a solid 8-4 SU and 7-3-1 ATS record at home when coming off a win. There’s also the fact that SMU has taken out the N. Texas three straight years, making this a triple-revenge affair for UN – a role in which N. Texas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in since 2017. In the same vein, teams in Game One of the season are 0-4 ATS since 2000 when facing a foe coming off a win seeking triple revenge when not favored by more than 10 points. |
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09-03-22 | Notre Dame +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* CFB Blowout The tale of the ATS tape tonight doesn’t strongly favor either side. Ohio State is 34-1 SU in season openers, including 22 wins in a row, and 4-0 SUATS of late in the series (average win 15.5 PPG). The Irish counter with a recent 14-5 SU record versus Big Ten opponents, and in the last 115 games in which ND has tackled the Big Ten, they’ve lost by more than 17 points only 10 times. The bottom line is this many points is simply too much to pass up with a quality team like the Irish. Buckeyes win on the scoreboard, but Notre Dame cashes the ticket. |
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09-03-22 | Utah v. Florida +3 | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 75 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Utes are just 4-9 SU in one-score contests the past five seasons, including 1-6 SU on the road. They’re also 1-5 ATS as non-conference favorites the last four years, numbers that pale next to Florida’s 3-0 ATS run as a home dog, and its 3-0 ATS effort against the Pac-12. Consider that new Florida head coach Billy Napier is 12-6 ATS as a dog, including 7-1 SUATS as a dog of 5 or fewer points. |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina v. Appalachian State +1.5 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 53 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Week 5 Units Appalachian State stands 11-1 SU at home under third-year head coach Shawn Clarke, and 32-3 SU on the Mountain since 2016. FYI: the Apps are also 40-11 ITS (In The Stats) the last four years, including 21-3 at home. To seal the deal, consider that Appalachian State is 23-1 SU in regular season games in which they win the stats the past two seasons. |
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09-02-22 | TCU v. Colorado +13.5 | 38-13 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Head coach Karl Dorrell revamped his offensive coaching staff with four new hires. Despite Dykes owning a money-burning 8-17 ATS as a road favorite, including 3-16 ATS the last nineteen outings, the public is still enamored with the Horned Frogs (now at -13.5). But with a Rocky Mountain high home field advantage, looks for the Buffs to trade scores with TCU and keep the game tight throughout. |
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09-02-22 | Illinois +3 v. Indiana | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 52 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units The Hoosiers gave up 384 yards of offense per game, as the Fighting Illini are going to have multiple opportunities to score throughout this game. Tommy Devito and Chase Brown carried their offense last week, as I wouldn't be surprised if they went off in this one again. Indiana also gave up 33.3 points per game. This was the most in the Big Ten, as I don't see their upgrades completely changing this team. They still have a long way to go and I loved the way the Fighting Illini looked against Wyoming. I understand that they are a weaker opponent, but the offense was humming and they were putting pressure on the opposing quarterback. They will do that again in this one, as Illinois will be able to keep the Hoosiers off the scoreboard for the majority of this game. |
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09-01-22 | West Virginia +8 v. Pittsburgh | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units West Virginia is 9-3 SUATS away in the series, including 5-1 SUATS as underdogs. By comparison, Pitt has posted a 1-6 SU effort versus Big 12 opponents, and a 2-6 ATS record as a non-conference favorite of 8 or fewer points. To cap it off, Coach Brown’s solid 14-7-2 ATS mark as a road dog tells us West Virginia can keep this one close. |
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08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State +10.5 | 23-12 | Loss | -110 | 467 h 48 m | Show | |
NCAAF Upset Special Nevada has managed to win only seven of its 26 games away from Reno by more than 10 points the past four seasons – and those were all with bowl teams. New NMSU head coach Jerry Kill takes over for the Aggies. His presence alone guarantees an uptick in NMSU stock this season. Kill is 7-1 SU in home openers in his college career, with the only loss coming by seven points. Consider that Aggies head coach Jerry Kill is 17-8 ATS as a double-digit dog in his career, including 6-1 ATS at home (6-0 ATS the last six). |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama +3 | 33-18 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Nick Saban stands 25-1 SU and 16-10 ATS against former coaches by an average margin of victory of 23.8 PPG, including 4-0 SU versus Smart by an average margin of victory of 11 PPG. He’s also a perfect 6-0 SUATS as a dog coming off four or more wins in a row – the same role in which he knocked off Georgia in the SEC title game last month. In addition, the Dawgs had better not let the Tide take a double-digit lead in this contest as Alabama is 60-0 SU in games when leading by 10 or more points (the longest skein in the nation). The favorite in CFP championship games shows no real advantage, going 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS all-time, including 0-3 ATS when not undefeated. Bad role for Georgia, too, as the Bulldogs are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as bowl chalk of 7 or fewer points when not coming off consecutive SUATS wins and facing foes coming off a SUATS win. We could go back-and-forth all day, but the bottom line is we cannot pass up an opportunity to back the No. 1 ranked team in the nation as a dog in the biggest game of the season. |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -1 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 468 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The boys from Manhattan own massive edges at both the head coaching and quarterback positions, and coach Klieman stands 11-4 SU and 10-3 ATS versus .500 or fewer opponents. We cement the call with this nugget that Bowl dogs coming off consecutive losses are 5-0 SUATS since 1980 against foes off a pair of wins, the last SU as an underdog. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor +1 v. Ole Miss | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 75 h 21 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit Bowl Game of the Day The Golden Domers are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS versus .846-or-greater Big 12 opponents, plus 7-13 SU and 6-14 ATS versus bowl opponents that allow fewer than 18.5 PPG. And that is key here as the Cowboys have one of the stingiest defensive units in the nation (ranked 3rd in the country), and allowed just 16.8 points per game this season, which was 7th in scoring defense. DC Jim Knowles is another major coach who has flown the coop before a bowl game, heading for the same position at Ohio State, but the defensive game plan is etched in stone in Stillwater. Also, remember, the Cowboys were one inch away from a possible appearance in this season College Football Playoff after going 5-0 SUATS away from home this season. Consider that College Bowl favorites entering 3-0 SUATS in their last three games, the last an ATS win of 6-plus points, are 4-29 ATS against a foe who scored 21 or fewer points in its final game of the season. Know also that playing against any College Bowl favorite who is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games if they are off a double-digit ATS win and are facing a foe coming off a loss who allows fewer than 25 PPG is a perfect 17-0 ATS since 1980. |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas +2.5 v. Penn State | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 387 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Penn State enters the Outback Bowl just 2-5 SU and ITS (In The Stats) in their last seven games. Franklin doesn’t lend much assistance today with his 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS career record against SEC foes that own the better record. Advantage to coach Pittman, who brings a 10-3 ATS dog log into this battle, including 6-0 ATS versus sub .800 foes. SEC bowlers with the better record are 24-10 SU, and 20-14 ATS versus Big Ten foes, including 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last ten years. We’ll call this a fat-cat favorite against an opponent that is absolutely elated to be here – and grab as many points as we can. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 58 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The loss to Alabama, which resulted in an avalanche of social media postings that condemned UGA QB Stetson Bennett’s effort, knocked the Dawgs ‘all the way down’ to No. 2 nationally in overall Team Defense (254.4). Still, Georgia held eight foes to 7 or fewer points this season, with only ONE team scoring more than 17 points (Bama with 41 in the SEC title game). So, when the ‘D’ plays up to its usual standards, we think Bennett is more than capable of leading his team to a big win in a big game. The mean machine shows support for Georgia, too, as it notes that bowlers coming off a loss who surrender 14.5 or fewer PPG are 25-10-1 ATS versus foes coming off a SUATS win, including 21-6 SUATS against opponents who allow more than 15 PPG. The Bulldogs have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight Bowls, which includes a 4-1 ATS effort as chalk of less than 13 points, and they’ve gone 6-2 ATS when playing off a SU loss of 14 or more points. A big chink in Michigan’s armor comes courtesy of Harbaugh’s 10-29 SU and 17-22 ATS as a dog, including 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS versus .923 or greater opponents. Numbers like those lend more importance to the Wolverines’ dismal 1-5 ATS mark as bowl dogs after scoring 40 or more points in the previous three games, and their recent 1-3 ATS slide as bowl dogs. Finally, SEC Bowl favorites stand 9-3 ATS versus the Big Ten, while Big Ten bowl dogs are 0-5 SUATS since 2002 versus foes coming off a SU favorite loss. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | 6-27 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Bearcats are the ONLY Bowl dog this season that was favored in every game, and undefeated dogs of more than 4 points in this role are 8-2 ATS. Cincy has also been money in the bank the last three years when taking points, going 5-1 ATS, and Luke Fickell’s ‘Cats hang right in with the big boys, going 6-0 ATS in their last six battles with .900 or better opponents. Yes, Nick’s Tide was hugely impressive against Georgia, but just one week earlier, Bama had to engineer an offensive drive for the ages merely to force OT against Auburn, then somehow prevailed in four overtimes, 24-22. And everyone thinks these guys can’t be beat? A tale of the tape shows that while the Bearcats beat all comers this season, they were 7-0 ATS versus .500 or greater foes, as opposed to 1-4 ATS versus losing opposition. It fits within Cincy’s 23-12 SU and 21-13-1 ATS overall mark against .500 or better foes under head coach Fickell, who is also 26-5 SU and 17-12 ATS when undefeated, including 7-0 ATS versus a foe coming off an ATS win of 8+ points. The fact is Alabama is just 1-4 ATS as Bowl chalk of more than 9 points, plus defending champs are just 9-8 SU and 6-11 ATS since 1980 as favorites of more than 6 points the following postseason, including 0-4 SUATS when they surrender 18 or more PPG – with every loss as a favorite. Bowl teams off a Championship dog win like Bama are 12-4 ATS, but Saban is only 2-4 ATS in his career versus undefeated foes when his team is not undefeated and coming off a SUATS win. Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young will also have to face the No. 1 team in the nation in Team Passing Efficiency Defense, and the No. 3 team in the nation in Red Zone Defense. Remember, the Bearcats led Georgia 21-10 after three quarters in last year’s Peach Bowl before losing 24-21 on a last-second field goal by the Bulldogs. These same Heisman winners are just 2-11 SU in this role. If all of this isn't enough, consider this tidbit that playing against any college bowl team that allows fewer than 18 PPG, and won its previous game by more than 7 points is 12-1 ATS since 1980. Then we can cap it all off with the fact that Heisman winners are just 2-11 SU in this role. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sun Devils come into this one being 3-9 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 1-5 ATS as dogs, and the horrible history of Pac-12 Bowlers versus Big Ten foes: 4-16 ATS, including 1-5 ATS as dogs versus the Big Ten, along with 1-11 ATS if not favored by 6 or more points… and the word we’re looking for after writing that is: ugh. The Badgers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 postseason contests and Vegas Bowl history favors the favorites, 7-3 ATS in the last 10. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Week The East Lansing Knothole Gang is a crackling 7-1 ATS in its last eight bowls, 3-0 ATS versus the ACC in the last three, and the B1G Boys have been bullies against the ACC in bowl season, going 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Big-moneyed Head Coach Mel Tucker engineered the biggest one-season turnaround in the long history of Spartans’ football and despite all the attention Walker III earned, don’t sleep on talented QB Payton Thorne, especially if receiver Jalen Nailor is able to bounce back from injury and join fellow wideout Jayden Reed. Consider as well that .700 or greater College Bowl ‘Mission Teams’ – teams who missed a bowl game last season after having been a bowler each of the previous three seasons – are 16-3-1 ATS versus foes coming off a loss. |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina +11.5 v. North Carolina | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 1 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units North Carolina runs it well, 5.8 YPC, and the Gamecocks give up 5.1 per carry. But before you paint your face Carolina Blue, think of the following: South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games, 5-1 ATS as bowl dogs, and the SEC is 10-2 ATS as bowl dogs in the last five years. UNC is 1-4 ATS in the last five versus the SEC, ACC Bowl favorites of three points or greater are 2-8 ATS. North Carolina also as sub .750 bowl favorites who allow more than 25.5 PPG are just 14-34 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS loss. We’ve written this before, motivation and just being happy to be in the bowl game is huge, and South Carolina exceeded expectations this year, while North Carolina didn’t come close. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -4.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 179 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Bowl Game of the Month Oregon got as high as No. 3 in the CFB Playoff rankings before getting spanked twice in two weeks by Utah, which destroyed any hopes for a playoff appearance or a New Year’s Six Bowl. It’s bad enough that the down-and-out Ducks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Bowls, but the Pac-12 is 0-5 ATS versus the Big 12 of late in post-season matchups, and Bowl dogs of 15 or fewer points off a conference loss of 28 or more are 3-9 ATS… that’s a lot of fugly numbers at work here against the quackers in this matchup. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in bowl games in which the Sooners sport the better record. In fact, OU is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against Pac-12 foes in games in which the Sooners own the better record. With both head coaches bolting for greener pastures – Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley is off to USC, while Oregon’s Mario Cristobal landed at Miami Florida – the feeling here is the Sooners have much more unfinished business at hand in this contest. The Clincher: Pac-12 bowlers coming off a SUATS loss are 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS since 2015. |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia +5 v. Minnesota | 6-18 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units WVU head coach Neal Brown has a little catch phrase of his own to motivate his troops in “Trust the Climb”, but the Mountaineers will have a major hill to scale tonight after going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 bowl appearances. Still, Brown is 4-0 SU in his career in Bowl games (including three while at Troy), and that’s what counts today. In addition, Brown is 7-0 ATS as a non-conference dog versus .500 or greater foes, and 8-2 ATS as a dog versus opponents coming off an underdog win. The Hillbillies check a lot of boxes in this matchup, and they get the call. |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 149 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Bowl Play of the Day Despite being the primary focus of every defense, Brad Roberts is the Falcons workhorse, averaging over 106 YPG with his longest run of the season being only 33 yards. People tend to forget the Falcons in the bowl season too, but AFA is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 bowls, 11-2 ATS off back-to-back SU victories, 4-1 ATS when an opponent limps in off a double-digit loss (like UL is), and 4-1 ATS as dogs of 6 or fewer points. Also consider that playing on any Military bowl team with a greater than .666 win percentage versus an opponent not coming off a double-digit win is 18-2 ATS since 1980. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5.5 | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals from Muncie, Indiana, won the Arizona Bowl as 8-point underdogs last season, but keep in mind that good fortune seldom comes calling two years in a row, as these teams are just 9-24 ATS the following bowl campaign when they field a team that owns a defense which allows more than 21.5 PPG. And when it comes to out-gaining foes on the field in 2021, BSU has bottomed out with a horrible 1-11 ITS (In The Stats) record – worst of all bowlers. The red birds have also gone 2-4 ATS in away games and 2-4 ATS as dogs, compared to the Panthers’ sparkling 5-1 ATS road record, and a 5-2 ATS mark as chalk. Down the stretch, Georgia State closed on a 6-1 SUATS run versus Ball State’s 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS effort. The deluge of bad news continues for BSU as the Cards have had their wings clipped in the last seven Bowl outings, going 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. GSU was favored one other time in a bowl game in which they cruised, 39-21, over Western Kentucky last season. With the Montgomery game site just a jaunt down I-85 from Atlanta, we look for Shawn Elliott’s Panthers to ride their 5-yards per rush ground attack to a big win here, and give the MAC another black eye in this year’s Bowls. |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida +6.5 v. Florida | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 178 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Florida will be without leading receiver Jacob Copeland, who entered the transfer portal – and he is unlikely to be the last Gator to opt out of this bowl game, as players have not meshed with the lame-duck coaching staff. All of which sets up what we like to call “The Gus Malzahn Revenge Bowl.” The former Auburn head coach knows the SEC like the back of his hand, and was 12-5 ATS as a dog against SEC foes when playing with a revenge chip on his shoulder (the Gators beat his Tigers as 2.5-point home dogs in 2019, 24-13). Gus is also 21-11-1 ATS in his career when looking to get even, including 16-3 SU and 14-4 ATS versus sub .888 foes. With Florida approaching terminal velocity in its stunning descent, we’re all-in against a big-brother foe that went 1-6 SU in games against fellow bowl teams this season. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -3.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Tigers managed to outgained only three of their twelve opponents, and were just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against FBS foes who managed to rush the ball for at least 200 yards against them. For what it’s worth, the last time the Tigers tackled a Military team during Bowl season, they were left dragging their tails in a 35-13 loss to Navy as 6.5-point chalk in 2009. However, the absolute bottom line today is that Army can REALLY rush the football (second in the country behind Air Force), while Mizzou cannot stop it (120th in yards allowed per carry). As we’ve told you in the past on these pages, military teams tend to shine during the Bowl season, going 37-14 ATS overall since 1980. Better yet, these military bowlers are 6-0 ATS since 1980 when coming off a SU favorite loss. |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State -2.5 v. UTSA | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UTSA’s Conference USA colleagues nodded off during bowl season last year, going 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS, doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence in Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners, as the loop brings a 7-16 SU and 8-14-1 ATS mark in post-season performances dating back to 2017. In addition, their 1-3 ATS and ITS (In The Stats) mark in the last four games of the season, as the pressure to remain undefeated was building, throws up a big red flag for us. Consider that bowlers who have won 15 or more of their previous 22 games, and are coming off a season-ending SU favorite loss (one-exact: read the Aztecs), are 28-8-1 ATS against foes coming off a SUATS win when not favored by 6 or more points. The fun attack of UTSA has had a great season, but the Aztecs will have all their arrows sharpened and we’re not fading that. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall +4 v. UL-Lafayette | 21-36 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Unit Napier went a sparkling 40-13 in his tenure there, which if he replicates at the University of Florida, will make him a nearly Spurrier like hero. (The Head Ball Coach will always be #1 in Gainesville). Still, we have concerns, such as a flat 0-4 ATS in the last four bowl games, and 2-6 ATS mark when playing off rest. Meantime, Marshall is quite the post-season juggernaut, going 12-3 SUATS in bowl games since 1998 and 4-0 SUATS when coming off double-digit losses. Herd QB Grant Wells can fling the ball around the building quite well, ranking 12th in passing yards this season with 3,453 yards and 16 TDs, and if that’s not working, the spectacular Rasheen Ali can take over a game. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State v. Utah State +7.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Typically, Oregon State is tough on the Mountain West, cashing in on 6 of the last seven skirmishes. We have backed OSU many times this season, so why are we turning our backs on them this time, you rightfully ask? Since 1984, bowl favorites who won just two games the season before are a heartburn-inducing 4-11 ATS, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a defeat. Finally, consider that PAC-12 bowl teams coming off a win are 1-21 ATS since 2015. |
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12-18-21 | UAB +6.5 v. BYU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cougars come into this one 9-16-1 ATS against teams who surrender 24.5 PPG or less. Coach Sitake is 6-17 ATS as a favorite in games where the Cougs give up 21.5 PPG or more, and a frightening 1-11 ATS in the last 12. Motivation is HUGE in these smaller bowl games, and we believe UAB’s will be loaded with it. Coach Bill Clark literally rose this program from the dead a few years ago, and the Blazers are a tough out against the giants, going 7-2 ATS versus foes .800 or better, including 5-1 ATS as the underdog. Not only that, the Blazers come from Conference USA, which will be undergoing massive changes soon (like it or not), but one steady stat says CUSA squadrons are 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS when coming off a win, and 7-0 ATS when coming off an ATS win. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Northern Illinois +11 | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Teams returning to the same bowl in which they lost last year are 0-5 SUATS since 2004. For another, they’re taking on a Northern Illinois bunch that engineered a rags-to-riches story of their own in 2021. After head coach Thomas Hammock took over the Huskies, they went winless (0-6) during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but shook off a 1-2 start this year with an 8-2 finish, blasting Kent State to claim their second MAC championship since 2014 (NIU recently signed Hammock to a contract extension through 2026). The sled dogs pulled more upsets (6) than any FBS team this season, and finished No. 1 in the nation in 4th Down Conversion Percentage, and No. 9 in Red Zone Offense. Yes, we realize Northern Illinois has gone 0-6 SUATS in bowl games since 2012, but consider that FBS bowl teams who were winless the previous season are 5-1 ATS. The bottom line is the Huskies are overjoyed to be here, while Coastal Carolina – with a QB that is less than 100% – might not be. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Midshipmen have gone 18-5 ATS as dogs when coming off one SUATS win-exact, including 4-0 ATS in military matters, as well as 7-1 ATS with a losing record. Army counters with a lackluster 2-5 ATS effort in this series of late, and has gone a weak 1-4 ATS as chalk in 2021. The Mids are also not lacking in incentive: with Army playing with an Armed Forces Bowl bid in their back pocket, and knowing the CIC Trophy stays with them regardless, the Swabbies have only one thought in mind: Beat Army, Period. Finally, consider that playing on any sub .666 college football Military team as a dog if they are coming off a win and are facing a fellow Military team is 10-1 ATS since 1995. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units 4* Big-10 Bash The Hawkeyes have held the upper hand in this series with the Wolverines, going 15-8-1 ATS as a dog in this series, including 8-2 ATS with an .800 or greater win percentage, and 6-0 ATS when the Maize-and-Blue are coming off back-to-back wins. In addition, teams entering their conference championship game, coming off a win of 14 or more points, are just 19-29 ATS all-time, including 1-9 ATS against a foe coming off a loss. Next, the favorite in Big Ten title games is 2-8 ATS (1-7 ATS versus .800 or greater foes). Finally, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz brings a 5-0 ATS record as a dog of more than 7 points with a win percentage of .750 or more into the fray. The clincher: Playing Against any favorite of 6 or more points with a better record than its opponent in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or fewer opponent is 10-1 ATS since 1996. |
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12-04-21 | Houston v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* AAC Championship Cash Playing high-profile opponents has not been a problem for Cincinnati, either, considering they own a spotless 5-0 ATS record in the last five contests versus .900 or greater opponents. Series history also favors UC, as Houston stands 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS versus the Bearcats, including 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS here. And despite this year’s success, Cougars coach Holgorsen is only 9-18 SU and 11-16 ATS versus undefeated opposition in his career. The clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit 5* Sun Belt Championship Smash Much like the Baylor-Oklahoma State contest, these two own very similar numbers in the most important offensive and defensive team stats, but there is one area where the Cajuns own an overwhelming edge: Appalachian State is dead even when it comes to turnover margin in 2021, while Louisiana checks in at +11. In addition to riding an 11-game win streak since an opening season loss at Texas, Louisiana beat ASU by 28 points in mid-October when they held the Mountaineers to a season-low 13 points and 211 yards. The Clincher: Playing against CFB team with revenge in its Championship Game if they allow more than 17.5 PPG and they are facing a .916 or greater opponent who allows fewer than 19 PPG if the opponent they are facing was has won 20 or more of its last 22 games is a perfect 8-0 ATS since 1992. |
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12-04-21 | Utah State +6 v. San Diego State | 46-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit 3* MWC Championship Whack New Utah State head coach Blake Anderson made quite the splash in his first season with the Aggies when he took over a one-win team and led them to the MWC championship game. With four SU underdog wins this season, this nineteen returning-starter dog checks all the canine boxes today, including the one where underdogs have bagged the cash 6 of seven times in this conference title game. Sure, Diego has a tough-as-nails defense (313 YPG) that ranks No. 13 in the nation, but the sloth-like offense ranks No. 110, failing to score 20 or more points in each of their last seven contests. And while the sun worshippers are 11-1 on the season, they’re only 5-7 ITS, which means the majority of their wins have been fortuitous. With the pressure squarely on the Aztecs to capture a record-setting victory, the points become the play here today. |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit PAC-12 Pounding Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal is in a tough spot here, going 1-5 SUATS the last six games as a dog of 6 or fewer points when seeking revenge. And with late season coach-poaching currently in high gear (Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly to LSU, Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley to USC), who knows if Cristobal will be lured away by the promise of a bigger payday before this game |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky -3 v. UTSA | 41-49 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit Conference USA title game from San Antonio. This spread has been bobbing up and down between 2.5-3 all day, so let's grab 2.5 now in case it stays at 3. WKU lost a shootout at home to UTSA earlier this season and this one is on the Roadrunners' field, but the Hilltoppers have been dominating every opponent since then. All seven wins during WKU’s streak have been by at least 15 points, with the average margin of victory at 26.4. Bailey Zappe is having one of the best seasons ever by an FBS quarterback. UTSA, meanwhile, has looked sluggish in its past three games (0-3 ATS) and did lose its finale. Maybe the Roadrunners were simply coasting, but I'll take the hot team. |
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11-27-21 | California +7 v. UCLA | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit PAC-12 Play of the Day There is not a whole lot on the line in this game for the Bruins – they have qualified for a bowl game (but cannot reach the Pac-12 title game), and they are still basking in the glow of their 62-33 destruction of arch-rival USC. Also, consider that they are 0-6-1 ATS after taking on the Trojans, 0-5-1 ATS in Game Twelve, and 1-7 ATS as home chalk of less than 10 points. Therefore, this becomes the ideal spot for the Bears, who still need a pair of wins (although next week doesn’t matter unless they score a victory here) to earn their bowl stripes. On top of that, they have owned this series spread-wise, going 12-4-1 ATS as a dog, and overall are 6-0 ATS as road dogs of 10 or fewer points. In addition, the Bears are 21-8 ATS as an underdog with head coach Justin Wilcox, including 7-0 ATS when the Bears own a losing record. |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 33-37 | Push | 0 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Big-12 Game of the Week Okies a step behind normally overpowering "O", with 3 take aways greasing skids for escape vs Iowa St (25-15 first down & 362-306 yard deficits). Oklahoma St "D" has been immovable, ranking 3rd, 4th, & 2nd in total, rushing, scoring. A 165-23 pt edge L4 tilts. Repaying 6 straight losses. Consider as well that playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 ATS since 1980 |
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11-27-21 | Penn State -1 v. Michigan State | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 39 m | Show |
Rating 5 UnitsBig-10 Game of the Week Our numbers for this game clearly put the Spartans at a disadvantage, including a 0-5 ATS mark after playing Ohio State, and a 0-4 home record against the number when they have conference revenge. On the flip side, regardless of the outcome of this game, neither team can improve or regress in the standings of the Big Ten East Division when the 7-4 / 4-4 Lions invade East Lansing to take on the 9-2 / 6-2 Spartans. With that being the case, you know it’s a much more important result for PSU as far as bowl positioning is concerned. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in LRGs, as well as 4-1 ATS away versus conference revenge. PSU’s 26thranked defense (335 YPG) is also leagues better than MSU’s 119th rated stop-unit (463 YPG)... and therein lies your edge. Consider as well that Penn State head coach James Franklin is 30-4 SU and 27-7 ATS in games when coming off a win versus an opponent coming off a loss, including 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS versus greater-than .400 foes. |
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11-27-21 | Ohio State -7.5 v. Michigan | 27-42 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU HC Day is 33-3 SU and 21-14-1 ATS in all games, including 24-0 SU and 16-8 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season, as well as 12-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS away. As for today’s all-the-marbles matchup, Ohio State is 7-1 ATS of late as road chalk of 8 or fewer points (check line), while Michigan owns a dreadful 0-8-1 ATS mark as a conference home dog of 10 or less points. We could go on, but with Harbaugh just 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS as a dog against .900 or greater opponents, Michigan will be little more than a speed bump at the Big House, as the Buckeyes barrel towards the Big Ten title game, and a spot in the CFB Playoff. |
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11-27-21 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +5.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Unit Upset of the Week Wake has limped to the barn at the end of the season many times, 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS, and a frightening 0-5 SUATS versus teams coming off a SUATS loss. The Demon Deacons are also 3-12 ATS in the back half of back-to-back conference roadies. Meanwhile the Boston Brawlers are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of 4 or more, 15-3 ATS versus conference opponents they defeated in a most recent meeting, as well as 8-3 ATS vs .800 or greater vs. conference opponents. They have thrived since QB Phil Jurevic returned. Consider that playing on any .500 or greater college football conference home dog coming off one loss-exact if they lost SU as a favorite from Game Seven out if they allow 24.5 or fewer PPG and they average more than 120 rushing yards per game if they are facing an .800 or greater opponent that allows 17.5 or more PPG who won fewer than 12 games last season is 15-0 ATS since 1980. Wake Forest needs a M-U-S-T W-I-N, but we see U-P-S-E-T instead. |
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11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | 40-13 | Loss | -108 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The oddsmakers have installed Washington State as the favorite in this game, despite the fact they are 1-7 ATS as a favorite in this series, as well as 3-13 SU in their last sixteen games at Husky Stadium. At 4-7, the only place Washington is going is home after this contest, but there is no better incentive for a bitter rival than to dress up as the underdog at home – and put a pin in the balloon of its hated rival. Meanwhile, UDub sports the nation’s No. 20 overall defense, one that is 69 YPG superior than its adversary, and the Huskies are 6-1 SUATS as home dogs of fewer than 2.5 points. Yes, WSU had gone 3-1 ATS away this year when seeking revenge, but that number is trumped by Washington’s red-hot 6-0 SUATS series run. |
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11-26-21 | Colorado +24 v. Utah | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We like fading teams off record-setting performances, and with the Pac-12 title game on deck for Utah, we figure head coach Kyle Whittingham will go vanilla here before tangling with Oregon, Oregon State or Washington State. Helping Colorado’s chances is the Utes’ mediocre 3-8 ATS effort in their last eleven games against .333 or less conference opponents. Conflicting trends show the Buffs are 0-5 ATS in recent series results, but 4-1 ATS as dogs of more than 14 points in the final game of the season. In addition, coach Dorrell is 23-12 ATS when taking points, including 11-3 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win. The bottom line is Utah will be content with a ‘W’ while the Buffaloes have plenty of room to roam inside the 24-point impost |
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11-26-21 | Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama +15.5 | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Last year at this time the Chanticleers were undefeated and clinched a perfect regular season with a road win-no-cover at Troy, but they were denied an opportunity to win a Sun Belt title game when it was postponed due to COVID. This year, they take a 9-2 ledger into Mobile as they will once again be spectators for the conference title bout. With it, they may find it difficult getting up for an opponent that is riding an 0-3 SUATS streak. There will be no shortage of incentive for the 5-6 Jags, though, as they’re looking to pick up a win to become bowl-eligible, after going 9-26 SU the previous three seasons. A 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS record in lined home gams since joining the FBS, including three SU underdog wins the last four years, catches our fancy. With CCU still warm and fuzzy from sending the seniors off in Conway last week, we’ll back a starving dog in South Alabama that stands a perfect 6-0 ATS of late as a home dog of 7 or more points. |
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11-26-21 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 | 35-13 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the Pirates are 2-10 ATS versus undefeated conference opponents, they |
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11-26-21 | Utah State -15 v. New Mexico | 35-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Mexico will be scoreboard watching, only the Lobos will be looking at the time remaining in this game, so they can finally call an end to a miserable 3-9 season. The campaign started with some degree of promise at 2-0, but those wins came against Houston Baptist and New Mexico state, and a step up in class resulted in a 1-8 SU slide. Even worse, if we throw out the Houston Baptist game, UNM has torched the money big-time this year, going 1-9 ATS. Meanwhile, Utah State should be mad as hell after getting ambushed by the Wyoming Cowboys last week, losing 44-17 as 6-point chalk, and the Aggies have cashed four straight tickets in the series. And with USU head coach Blake Anderson now 23-3 SU and 18-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite, the likelihood of an upset is next to nil |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State +3 v. Texas | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in this series of late when coming off a SUATS loss, they’re also an impressive 6-0-1 ATS as road favorites or road dogs of 3 or less points. Head coach Chris Klieman does not suffer SUATS losses lightly, going 6-1 ATS in his last seven tries in that role. Coach K also boasts an 11-3 SU and 10-2 ATS mark versus .500 or fewer foes, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS the last eight. And we can’t forget last year’s horrific 69-31 loss to Texas, especially with the Horns now 3-8 ATS at home versus a revenging conference opponent. We can almost hear the “Bring Back Herman” chants as you read this. Consider that college Football teams on a 6-game-exact losing streak are 3-22 SU and 8-15 ATS at home in their final game of the regular season, including 0-5 ATS as either a favorite or a dog of fewer than 3 points. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulldogs find themselves in another payback situation tonight, falling in last year’s Egg Bowl, 31-24. That works well with the Rebels’ money-burning 3-8 ATS record when taking on foes playing with conference revenge. Ole Miss has ridden the Lane Train to an impressive 9-2 SU record this season, but head coach Kiffin is only 3-10 ATS in games with the better record when coming off consecutive wins. And in case you missed Mississippi State’s win over Auburn, you missed a totally unflappable coach in Leach, never losing his cool despite his team starting in a 28-3 hole, then ripping off 40 unanswered points to beat the Tigers, 43-34. In tonight’s annual slugfest between two of the seven SEC teams dotting the College Football Playoff Rankings, we’ll stick with Professor Leach and MSU’s 13-1 ATS success in the second of back-to-back home games. |
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11-20-21 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OSU’s tough-as-nails defense has limited five foes to a season low yardage, including each of the last three games. The Pokes are ranked third in the country in Total Defense (4.58 yards per play allowed), are tied with Marshall for the top spot in Sacks (37), and allow just 14.8 fi rst downs per contest (ranked 5th). They held TCU QB Chandler Morris to just 103 yards passing in Saturday’s 63-17 win, one week after Morris lit up Baylor for 461 yards. Consider that the 'Pokes are getting better by the week, as 9-0 ATS & 10-1 SU runs attest. |
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11-20-21 | Oregon +3.5 v. Utah | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Kyle Whittingham has made Utah a West Coast powerhouse, and no fun to play at all, but despite his great work over the years, Kyle is just 10-18 ATS versus .900 or greater opponents, including 2-11 ATS as the favorite. Oregon won at Ohio State earlier this year, and winning a game at the Horseshoe is a Get Out of Jail Free card in our minds. Ducks’ Head Coach Mario Cristobal, the dream candidate in the hearts of Miami Hurricanes fans hyperventilating to replace Manny Diaz, is 6-1 SUATS away versus .700 or greater foes. Much like Baron Von Raschke applying the Claw to another helpless opponent in the ring. Consider that Cristobal is 32-12 SU in games with the better record, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7.5 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Back-to-back SUATS losses to a pair of I’s (Illinois and Iowa) have knocked the boat-rowers out of the water; however, IU presents a great chance to get the oars in the water again. The Hoosiers have had a miserable fall after 2020. Indiana stands 2-8 / 0-7, including 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in the last four games, and are surrendering 192 YPG more than what they gained. IU has gone bowling the last two seasons, and this season they will also have time to go bowling, play bocce, and fi nd out if Mike Woodson is the right choice for Hoosiers hoops. It’s not an easy fi x for Hoosier football, and we don’t have the solution here. |
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11-20-21 | Illinois +13 v. Iowa | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in their last six games, after beginning the season holding opponents to seasonlow or second low yardage in the fi rst six. Iowa is also a shaky 2-9 ATS as a conference home favorite of more than 10 points, and are 1-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. In the blue corner we have the Illini, who are 4-1 ATS on the road after a bye. Dick Butkus’ alma mater is also 7-2 ATS as a conference road dog of 17 or fewer points. While Iowa is leaking oil, our very own “impervious to leaks” Well Oiled Machine says 4-6 teams coming off a win, while taking double digits in Game Eleven of the season, are a Chunky Soup hearty 35-20-1 ATS since 1980, |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State +4 v. Oklahoma | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 12 m | Show |
4* Big-12 Play of the Day Iowa State is a solid 5-1 ATS away with conference revenge, and 4-1 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, the deflated Sooners have the look of “bubble burst” written all over them after falling to the Baylor Bears, and we’ll look for the Clones to stick another pin in their balloon today, especially since Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS at home in this series when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Sooners are also 6-10 ATS in games when coming off their first loss of the season, including 2-7 ATS versus foes who allow fewer than 23 PPG. ISU head coach Matt Campbell going against teams coming off an upset loss, is 6-0 ATS as a dog when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite, as well as 8-2 ATS in games when his team was upset. Also, playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 since 1980. |
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11-19-21 | Air Force +2 v. Nevada | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
5* MWC Game of the Week The Wolf Pack is yet another team that appears to have hit the wall, going 2-2 the past four games following a 5-1 start to the season. Nevada is also 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as a dog or as a favorite of fewer than 4 points versus military teams. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun checks in with a 10-4 ATS mark as a dog against foes with an identical record. Consider as well, that .700 teams playing in Game 11 pretty much have their holiday bowl plans in the making, it is also a major letdown time for these teams dressing up without rest as contented home favorites in these contests. That’s confirmed by the fact that these chalk artists are just 74-82-1 ATS (47%) in this role since 1980. And when these teams are coming off a loss and facing .500 or greater opponents, they fall to 11-26 ATS. Worse, these teams tumble to 1-14 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points. |
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11-18-21 | Louisville -19.5 v. Duke | 62-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals annihilated Syracuse at home last week, 41-3, and will win their 2021 golden bowl ticket by dropping another ‘L’ on the Duke tonight. The 5-5 Cards are relieved to see the Blue Devils here with Kentucky on deck, as they’ve torched the Devils in each of their only other two meetings in this series, winning both games by an average score of 32-9. We certainly can’t go into battle against that armed only with Duke’s near-lifeless 0-19 SU and 7-12 ATS mark as a 20-point or larger home dog. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +5.5 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When Eastern Michigan hosts Western Michigan in Mac action tonight they will do so knowing the eagles are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in Last Home Games when not coming off a double-digit loss and hosting a foe coming off a spread loss. EMU is also 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on Tuesdays in conference play, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog. With the visiting Broncos riding a 0-4 ATS losing skid as favorites on Tuesdays in MAC games, we're going with EMU tonight. |
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