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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 211 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
Firstly, I like unders for two reasons. 1) Denver is really starting to slow down their offensive drives, especially when they play with a lead. I see two narratives for game four-- either Denver sticks with that style, because it worked (high pick n rolls, methodical passing, centered around Murray), or the Heat respond and we see that trusty, hardcore style of defense that they can bring. Either way, and I think it's a combination of both, that should feed more low-scoring games. I do think the Heat probably win this one as we continue to see a back-n-forth battle, and I like them to come out with more energy. I don't, however, feel great about their ability early. Denver has gained confidence and we all know Miami hasn't been as exceptional during the first three quarters. We'll take them to assert themselves in the final two quarters in a desperate home spot where they must win if they have a chance in these Finals.Â
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06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat OVER 214.5 | 109-94 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 12 m | Show | |
The first quarter has been slow starting in this series, with both games ending at only 49 points in the first 12 minutes. I think that's because of a few factors: nerves, offenses settling in and finding their rhythm, and defenses are winning early. Spoelstra and the Heat are known for their tenacity and ability to throw off offenses, especially early in games, but I think this one will be different. Denver knows that their slow start was one reason why the game felt so out of their control, even when they went up later, and I think they're more efficient out of the gate. Denver's offense has thrived on the road, reaching a rating over 120 in the NBA playoffs. That's easily the best ranking out of all playoff teams and it should be an even bigger emphasis Wednesday night after their loss and after getting limited to only 108 points. I like overs and if we're seeing two offenses compete for who can score the most like I think we will, I have to bet on the Nuggets to out-play Miami and take a 2-1 series lead. Either way, clearly this war is a long way from over.
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06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 214.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 23 m | Show | |
Something that game one exhibited and that we feel dumb overlooking is how nerve-racking the NBA Finals can be for many of these young men. The home team is well-oiled and a great offense but it's the first championship game for most of their young roster and the Heat, fresh off a taxing series against Boston, weren't in any place to be explosive offensively. I also love the matchups defensively. Denver's height and endurance at home are two huge advantages, as they can pester and out-muscle the Heat's core. The Heat are still feisty and disciplined defensively, and I expect them to show their best effort after more additional rest and a full week away from their series with Boston. Game twos get heated-- I like more defense.Â
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm not sure who's going to cover this line. Both teams have been underrated all season and in these NBA playoffs, and I think the Heat could definitely cover. They won straight up as underdogs in all three of their game ones in three previous series of these very same NBA playoffs. Now with momentum, I could see them being really feisty in the second half. I lean to Denver in the first half, but I'd rather bet on their totals. Denver at home is as lethal as it gets and now the Heat are going up against a much softer defense. Jimmy and Bam and Caleb Martin and the many dogs of their roster have put up exceptional offense throughout the NBA playoffs, a top 5 rated unit. Game ones are typically looser and both teams are trying to feel out what's coming next. We'll go with two overs.
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 211 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 31 h 35 m | Show | |
Welp, here we go again. If the Heat defense played at the same level as they have at home in the playoffs, they would easily be rated the best defense in the NBA. Now they're going back home, after Boston found their rhythm and shot over 40% from beyond the arc and 50% from the floor. Riding the momentum of their home crowd, shots just wouldn't stop falling in. Without Herro and potentially without Gabe Vincent again, the Heat have no choice but to play their best brand of defense, and they know that they're in bad shape if they have to go back to Boston for game 7. The pace dropped in game 5, too, and we saw a barrage of turnovers and just more physical play from both teams, especially when the game was closer in the 1st half. The short ATS line and importance of this game tells me it'll be a close battle throughout, and that has to mean the tempo will halt even more and we'll see a really defensive battle for stretches of time, probably at the margin of every quarter. Give me a fookin' under. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 7 m | Show | |
If we thought game two was contentious and physical, this is about to take on a whole new level. The Heat defense won't be pussy or porous at home and the Celtics must prevent Miami from going on runs if they have a chance to win in this series. I think we see an incredibly slow pace for large segments of this game, should look more like the NYK/Miami series, and this closes around 200.Â
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 223.5 | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 4 m | Show | |
Lakers -4 (-110), to win 4 unitsAnthony Davis over 40.5 PAR (-110), to win 2 unitsNuggets/Lakers under 223.5 (-110), to win 2 units
It's already moving up to -4.5 at some books. I'd be SHOCKED if they didn't win and cover game three at home. It's a super desperate spot and Denver doesn't play as well on the road. Hasn't all year or the playoffs.A rare 4 unit play for a reason. Anthony Davis at only 40.5 PAR is ABSURD considering he is THE one and only x-factor for the Lakers. If he dominates, they win, and now he's due at home. The Lakers plan will be to attack the point and feed AD early, that's what they've done in the past and I see no reason why they wouldn't here. Denver's offense will also take a dip on the road. Under for me, love it. 223.5 is way too high; I have it at 215. |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
The Nuggets met 4x during the regular season and tied their series 2-2, but that doesn't really have an affect on this game. All four previous matchups were before the trade deadline and therefore a different version of the Lakers. They were also at a time where Jamal Murray wasn't as comfortable or back to a more regular version of himself. In these NBA playoffs, the Nuggets won the first half of their first game against Minnesota by an 11 point margin and the first half of the first game against Phoenix by a 17 point margin. Since they're the #1 seed, both contests were at home, as will this opener against LAL. Since this version of the Lakers has yet to experience how potent Denver can be on their home floor, we like that advantage for the Nuggets (PS - they beat LAL in their two home games this season, not that it necessarily matters much here). Denver is also coming off more rest and they've been extremely effective at home all year (119 rating during the reg season, 2nd overall, and 118 rating in the postseason, 4th overall). I think this game will look a lot like their opener against the Suns, where a defense as well-coached as LAL still can't stop the proliferate-talent Denver can offer, thus an under. LAL's pace will help, too, and both of their opening games hit over 230 (one hit 240)-- their defense isn't as crisp early on, plus they're tired as shit. Anyway, we love these looks!Â
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | 101-122 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
 Knicks/Heat under 208.5 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsWarriors/Lakers under 221 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsThere's a reason both totals have dropped and we'll follow that line movement. Both the Lakers and Heat play A+ defense at home and both teams, although LAL is surely the faster and more inclined to run transition, will likely want to slow down these games and make the opposing offense operate at a high level in the half court. I think New York and Golden State both could win, they both hit their offensive strides in their last contest, but they're bound to regress on the road. Contentious game sixes await and I think the time of high-paced, efficient scoring is over for the remainder of this second round. I'll take two unders.
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05-12-23 | Knicks v. Heat UNDER 208.5 | 92-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
 Knicks/Heat under 208.5 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsWarriors/Lakers under 221 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsThere's a reason both totals have dropped and we'll follow that line movement. Both the Lakers and Heat play A+ defense at home and both teams, although LAL is surely the faster and more inclined to run transition, will likely want to slow down these games and make the opposing offense operate at a high level in the half court. I think New York and Golden State both could win, they both hit their offensive strides in their last contest, but they're bound to regress on the road. Contentious game sixes await and I think the time of high-paced, efficient scoring is over for the remainder of this second round. I'll take two unders.
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05-11-23 | Nuggets v. Suns OVER 226.5 | Top | 125-100 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
It's no mistake that every game in Phoenix went over. The Suns' offense is instantly more comfortable and fluid at home, and the Nuggets can still fall victim to small-ball offenses, especially on the road. Not to mention, Denver has been an abysmal road team all season. Anywho, the Suns should control the rhythm of this game and that means a lot of Booker, who should find new ways to get open and avoid Aaron Gordon, and a lot of Kevin Durant. The Nuggets don't need to win this series on the road-- the Nuggets are extremely hard to beat at home. Cameron Payne should be more efficient Thursday, too, and when he's making the right decisions and running the Phoenix offense, he adds an element of chemistry that's really fun to watch. More passing, more scoring. I like the Suns, but I'd rather go with an over; like the Warriors tonight, it's the only way the Suns can beat Denver. Make them big boys work.Â
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
Warriors ML + Over 226 (+154), to win 1.54 unitsLakers/Warriors 1Q over 57.5 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsThe last time we were in this situation, we had the game end at 227 points after Golden State and LAL failed to score more than 2 points in the final four minutes. All good. Let's hope that BS doesn't circle back. That was game two, another response game for the Warriors, and they brought it. Klay and Steph had their most efficient games of the series and they were lights out from the field (50%) and beyond the arc (50%). The Warriors cannot play slow and expect to beat the Lakers. Methodical basketball doesn't work against a team that's bigger and more physical. You beat the Lakers by running around, tiring them out, and shooting your way to a win in overwhelming fashion. That will be Golden State's approach and I believe they'll have plenty of success. And I expect the total to be affected immediately. Overs and a tilt to the Warriors.
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05-08-23 | Knicks v. Heat OVER 206.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
Knicks ML (+155), to win 1.55 unitsKnicks/Heat over 206.5 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsJulius Randle over 23.5 points (-125), to win 1.5 unitsThe Knicks have been elusive with me all season. When I bet on them, it's usually when they've proven they're a better squad than I thought. Then they lose. Then their offense starts to crumble again, and that's why I tried to avoid it in game three. Of course I wish I bet on Miami, but I knew I couldn't bet on New York.  This game feels different.  Although Miami has been incredibly resilient and Erik Spoelstra has again proven that he's an excellent coach (and maybe the brightest HC in the association), their play hasn't been without flaws. Like the Knicks, they had a very poor shooting night in game three. The Knicks shot a putrid 34%, but the Heat weren't far behind, making only 38.9% of their shots Saturday. Neither team could shoot from beyond the arc (NYK: 20%, MIA: 21.9%). But two areas where Miami succeeded and the Knicks' couldn't keep up: points in the paint and free throw shooting. The Heat just had more poise under more physical conditions Of course that's the culture that Jimmy "Himmy" Butler commands, and he was the picture of tough in Miami's game three win. Only 28 points, sure, but he was 10/11 from the free throw line, he had two offensive rebounds, two blocks, and he only had one personal foul all game. Just clean, smart, elite-level basketball from an OG. But things are bound to turn around in game four.  The Knicks have a more dynamic offense, that much we're certain of, although you wouldn't know it in the NBA playoffs. Miami is rated #2 overall offensively (117 rating) this postseason, a staggering statistic considering their roster and their level of competition. They more closely resemble the Knicks, who owned the 4th overall offense in the NBA in the 2022/23 season (117 rating).  This is a big reason why I expect game four to look different. Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson had big game two performances. RJ Barrett mixed in 24 points and Josh Hart added 14 of his own. No one was terribly efficient-- just good enough. Finding enough shots. Challenging the Heat offensively when they needed a big bucket. Taking chances from beyond the arc (16-40, 40%) and getting enough in the bucket to make an impact. That's what it's all about, and if they can just do enough, I think they win this game.  They're also bound to positively regress from the free throw line. The Knicks are shooting a very poor 68% from the charity stripe. They're not the best FT shooting team normally (76% this season), but I'm sure it's an area that Coach T is stressing before a pivotal game four. I'm not sure why they've been so bad, maybe nerves, but the Knicks will settle in quicker if they're more confident and aggressive from tipoff Monday. Speaking of, in a quote tweeted out by the New York Knicks last night, Julius Randle said, "We are confident, we gotta execute, come out with a certain level of aggression and physicality, and find a way to win the game." I like that energy to translate through their offense, finding more buckets, more locked in from the free throw line, and finding more open looks to catalyze their production. I like the Knicks and I like their improvement to result in an over - don't hate that parlay either.
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05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
 DEN/PHX under 227.5 (-110), to win 1 unitNuggets win (+120), to win 1.2 units Again, negative regression cometh for a Suns team that benefited from Booker, who almost shot 100% in game three, and a resurgent motivational spot. Things will slow down in a pivotal game four. Phoenix has already upped their defensive effort and Jokic and the Nuggets will need to attempt the same today if they have a chance at slowing down the Suns at home. The easy breezy lax style we’ve seen from many defenses in the second round is coming to an end today. We also think Denver is the better team, with better team chemistry down the stretch. If you like PHX, I’d take them early. Think the Nuggets do just enough to escape with a win, while Booker and Durant just aren’t quite as effective.Â
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 214 | Top | 115-116 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
BOS/PHI under 213.5 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsBOS/PHI 1Q under 52.5 (-110), to win 1 unit Yes, I’m crazy, that’s why I’m betting this again. Eventually Philly has to turn up on defense or they’re not going to have a chance to survive in this series. Expect this game to start slow and physical. Philly’s at home, down 1-2, in an ultra vulnerable spot, and they’ve no doubt had some come to Jesus conversations about their porous defense in the last two contests. One of the most consistent units all season, they can apply a different kind of pressure when motivated, and we know Boston can bring it defensively. Also expecting some degree of negative regression from Boston’s offense, and it’s not like their 3-point shooting has been stellar. Unders. Â
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | 114-121 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 35 m | Show | |
I agree with this total being lower than the previous two games. Phoenix has a lot of steam when they're at home and they love to run in transition, but the Nuggets' offensive efficiency drops to 14th on the road. Not nearly as potent or comfortable, it shows in away situations where the Nuggets' defense can get exposed against small-ball, fast-paced offenses. I think Denver's offensive efficiency drops and Jamal Murray / Jokic try to keep them afloat (don't hate their props), but ultimately the Suns lock down on defense and the pace decreases in the second half. Monty Williams is still a defensive minded coach first. Taking a shot on Durant for the first shot because I could see Phoenix attacking with pace right from the tip to try and set the tone, and Durant moving to the top of the key for a mid-range jumper makes too much sense. Worth a quarter bet.  Â
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05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 214 | 114-102 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 9 m | Show | |
I would be surprised if this line moved up. At times, the pace in game one was absolutely molasses-like. The Celtics finally reinstituted their brand of defense and I think that sticks in game three. The Sixers, on the other hand, are 3rd in points allowed per game and tend to play even better defensively on their home floor. With a raucous Philly crowd, I expect to see some level of negative regression from the Boston offense and they'll need to rely on stingy defense. This narrative along with a pedestrian tempo should lead to a game that's barely reaching 200 points.Â
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05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 226.5 | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Game ones are higher scoring than most. In the second round, all three game ones have gone over the ATS total and it makes sense. Both teams are tired and less inclined to play world class defense, it's not game 7 after all, and they're feeling each other out at the same time. The Lakers averaged 53 ppg in the paint and the Warriors are a small-ball shooting team that should be able to out-maneuver the Lakers' bigs on their home floor. A recipe for an over is in store, though it probably calms down in game two like we saw in DEN/PHX. |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks OVER 207 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show | |
Knicks TT over 109.5 (+130), to win 1.3 unitsHeat/Knicks over 206.5 (-110), to win 1 unitA few things happened in game one that we don't expect to repeat-- especially not in a revenge game at MSG. Julius Randle may return to game two but even if he doesn't, the Knicks' efficiency has to get better. Kudos to the Miami Heat for executing a very high level of paint defense in the second half, but the Knicks will be in attack mode from the start of this game and I like that for some overs. The Heat continued to find ways to score, and neither team shot well from beyond the arc in game one (MIA: 33%, NYK: 20%). Expect positive regression for these totals. I lean NYK, obviously, but -7 is a bit too strong for me.
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05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 228.5 | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
I like this just as much as our play on Saturday, if not more. The Suns shot below their means from beyond the arc in game one and neither team looked as comfortable or fluid for stretches. I think adjustments are made and their better units, their offenses, are even more potent in game two. The talent is just too much and the stars: Booker, Murray, Durant, etc.- keep on finding ways to score. What changes that? This one also goes into the 230s.  Â
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 224 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 71 h 34 m | Show |
Game one is a showcase, both offenses are better than their defenses, Nuggets at home are potent, the Suns' starting five is too good -- this is going WAY over 225.  Â
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 220 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Lakers -4.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Grizz/Lakers under 219.5 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsLeBron James over 43.5 PRA (-110), to win 1 unitLeBron still snagged a double-double in an otherwise quiet game five but that's just another reason why I like prime LeBron and a Lakers' team that's taken care of business over and over again for us, to cash once again. At home with a chance to end this series, the experience and leadership of LAL is the difference down the stretch. Three out of the five games between LAL and MEM have gone under and it should have been four but OT happened in a pivotal game four. This game should be as testy and physical as any, since Memphis is facing elimination and we've seen their defense step up in similar spots. LeBron and AD seem to take turns dominating and in game five it was AD who got over 50 PRA. I expect LeBron to get an easy 35 PRA (25 points and 10 rebounds), and we'll trust that he'll cover the rest in a game where LBJ can will his team to the second round at home. He loves these spots. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks OVER 232 | Top | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Sure the Celtics could suddenly turn in an all-world performance tonight on defense and completely shut down points and therefore our bets, but I'm going to trust what we keep seeing. The Hawks have scored 130, 119, and 121 in their last three games. They're more fast-paced and potent at home. Dejounte Murray is returning. I'll take some overs and I'll bet on the Hawks' success.Â
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04-26-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 233 | 123-116 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
I know it's always scary with the pace these two teams play at, but the Warriors' offense is not the same on the road, the Kings' defense was elite in two games they played in Sacramento, and now we have De'Aaron Fox playing with a broken finger. This all suggests an under, not to mention the critical nature and physicality that should come with a 2-2 game. I have the total at 223. Â
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 202.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 28 m | Show | |
It's hard to hand-pick the one game that should go over the total in this crazy low-scoring series but I think this is the one. The Cavs need to correct their offensive efficiency and we started to see some of that late, mainly through Darius Garland. but Donovan Mitchell couldn't get a shot to land and they fizzled out against a very stingy Knicks' defense. Cleveland dropped 107 at home in their first win and I expect them to eclipse 105 points at home; since I like NYK to cover and I can't possibly take Cleveland with that many points after what we've seen, I must go over the total. LFG!Â
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 221 | 111-117 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Grizzlies 1H ML (+134), to win 1.34 unitsGrizzlies 1HÂ +2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsParlay: Lakers MLÂ + under 220.5 (+191), to win 1.91 unitsThose lines on the Grizzlies in the first half are big-time discounts, so we have to take it. Memphis came out flat in game three and paid the price at the Staples Center. LeBron was angry and stole Dillon Brooks' soul and Anthony Davis had a much better game after a sloppy game two, as we expected. But in a series where two teams are relatively even and both are capable of inflicting vengeance on their opposition, we're going to see a different version of Memphis on Monday night. The Grizzlies are young, sometimes stupid, but very hungry. They play NBA ball like they're on the street and when their defense gets physical from the jump, they can really suffocate good offenses. That's the Grizzlies we saw in game two and I think we see a similar, more stingy version again to start off this one. The Grizzlies aren't going down without a fight and the Lakers have been known to start slow. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are the best ATS team in the NBA at halftime. As the game goes on, I worry that the experience and LeBron effect, along with being in L.A, will give the Lakers the edge they need to still get a W. Memphis early, Lakers late in a slower, defensive game.
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04-23-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 238.5 | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
The last two games have started very slowly and although Sacramento couldn't find their rhythm in game three, this line suggests they'll perform at a much higher level in game four. I'm not so sure. Draymond will return and that brings extra heat and physicality to this matchup, and the Warriors seem a lot more comfortable at home on defense. De'Aaron Fox didn't have as much room to maneuver. Nerves will go back up in a game that matters crucially for both teams and I trust that we'll see another clunky segment of basketball that greatly reduces this total.Â
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04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 206.5 | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
It's the predictable bet at this point but I see no evidence that anything changes. The Cavs are shooting nervous and I don't see that changing at MSG for game two. The Knicks are more comfortable, and I lean their side again for this one, but Cleveland's length has given them issues, too. Checks out as another blue collar under.
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04-22-23 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 209.5 | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
This series keeps on showing us what it is; I just wasn't listening hard enough. Two defenses that are better than their offenses much of the time, slow paced games, and Joel Embiid isn't in today. Taking the under.
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04-20-23 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 227 | 129-124 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
The Clippers can't be happy with the onslaught of offense that came from the Suns two nights ago, and I expect this game to be stuttering at a slower pace. I'm not trying to pick on Devin Booker, he was awesome the other night, but he doesn't typically go off two games in a row, and certainly not on the road against a defense that can be as good as Los Angeles'. Kawhi has been phenomenal and Westbrook's effort/defense has been stellar, but the rest of their teammates need to step it up. I think Ty Lue comes with a great game plan and they force the Suns to play their brand of basketball. Slow, clumsy, annoying, but effective for a team that shoots as well as the Clippers. The Clippers don't have much of a home court advantage, they don't play or cover all that well (19-22), but that doesn't mean they can't make this a mucky defensive game where they attempt to survive if Durant and one other Sun has a big night. Slower than usual-- taking the under. Â
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04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 214 | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Nets 1Q +3.5 (-110), to win 2 unitsNets +10 (-110), to win 1 unitNets/76ers under 214 (-110), to win 1 unitEverything was falling for Philly in the first game but I don't see lightning striking twice. Sure, Philly is a matchup problem for a lot of defenses but Brooklyn has been a quick learner with their new squad in the last two months. And they rarely let-down on defense in two straight games. The 76ers shot a ridiculous 43 three-pointers and they made nearly 50% of them in game one. I don't care how good they play, the Nets weren't going to keep up with that kind of shooting, especially not with a 20-9 loss in the turnover battle. Variance and positive regression (aka improvement of play) is on Brooklyn's side in game two and I think they start it off with some physical defense and this game is way more competitive throughout. The total is low for a reason - this should get really slow for long segments. Â
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04-16-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 224.5 | 80-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
 T-Wolves/Nuggets over 224.5 (-110), to win 1 unitA rare over for me in the playoffs but just for 1 unit. I think the Nuggets will go OFF at home and put up a ton of points, leaving Minnesota to chase all game. That should create an over-- 224 points only demands one high scoring half and I think it happens early. Either way, probabilities are on the over-- I have this total at 232.
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04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | 128-112 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Lakers/Grizzlies under 228 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsI think this game gets very physical very fast. Memphis likes to infiltrate the paint to create offense and LAL has a massive size advantage. There's an explosion waiting to happen in what should be a very contentious series. Lean Grizzlies -4 to start off the series on hot fashion at home, but don't love it. Taking the under. Â
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 238.5 | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 99 h 18 m | Show | |
Warriors/Kings 1H over 117.5 (-110), to win 3 unitsIt might slow down late but the Kings at home have been a juggernaut on offense and the Warriors can keep pace with the best of them, especially when it matters. Shooters galore and a fast pace to start; give me the over early.
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04-14-23 | Thunder v. Wolves UNDER 229 | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
Same reasoning as above. Expect these two defenses to show their best selves in this game and two teams as young as these two squads will be extremely nervous at certain points. Expect some clumsy basketball and long stretches of low scoring. OKC couldn't miss at certain points against the Pels, expect big-time regression against an underrated D in Minnesota, especially with big Rudy back.  Â
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04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 209 | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
 Both offenses are terribly flawed and in elimination games like this, especially with two premiere defenses locked and loaded, there's going to be HUGE stretches of turnovers and blocks and missed shots during this game. Under 208.5 might sound like a stretch but in a game that matters this much, where nerves will be a part of every man's shot, I don't think it's low enough. Taking the Bulls for slightly more profit, too. I just don't think Miami has the offense to pull away from anyone, and Chicago's defense will make it even harder for them.
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04-09-23 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 226.5 | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
04-04-23 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 240.5 | 125-136 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
Thunder/Warriors over 241 (-110), to win 2 unitsSteph Curry 1Q over 7.5 points (-105), to win 1.5 unitsBoth top 10 in pace, the Thunder aren't playing defense lately, especially against good offenses, and the Warriors are at home and almost always force their team to play catch-up. Their assist ratio is #1 the last 5 games, too, indicative of the Warriors' pass-first offense that's impossible to stop, especially at home. I expect fireworks. Curry started off the last game ice cold, which only makes me love his 1Q point prop even more in this redemption spot.
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04-04-23 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | 121-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are certainly the more desperate team, they're favored and at home, and they're still the #1 defense the last two weeks. If they command this game, and the line is telling us they will, this will be slower paced and cerebral on both sides. That favors an under; I have this around 227. Â
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04-02-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets OVER 236.5 | 110-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
It's smash time again for the Nuggets after they dropped their last two games and put themselves in jeopardy to possibly lose the #1 seed, now only two games in front of the Grizzlies. The Warriors struggle on defense on the road and Denver will be more inclined for another big offensive display since their defense has let them down over the last two months. Fast-paced and full of A+ shooting talent, their previous two games went over and this checks out to be the same type of game.Â
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04-02-23 | Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 224 | 107-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Well this is about as ugly as it gets but it looks like multiple starters could be out for the T-Wolves and we know the Blazers' offensive stars are sitting, so where the hell are the points coming from? Whether Anthony Edwards and KAT play or not, defense should be Chris Finch's emphasis after his team just allowed the Lakers to score 123 points in their home arena. This checks out as a sleepy contest where the Blazers may not reach 90 points.
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State UNDER 132 | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
San Diego State slows down and challenges every possible shot from their opponent, especially off rest, and FAU's size and toughness should give it right back in a battle that I expect to be very low scoring. Both squads run at a slow tempo and both are equipped with better defensive talent than they are offensive-- this is a 63-59 type game, from my perspective.Â
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03-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 221.5 | 130-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Parlay: Cavs MLÂ + over 221.5 (+203), to win 2.03 unitsThe Knicks will be faster without Julius Randle's ISO ball method and the Cavs will be faster without Jarrett Allen down low and adding Caris LaVert to the mix. Both defenses haven't been as crisp lately and both teams have eclipsed this point total in 3 out of their last 5 games. I agree with this total moving up and think it'll only get higher as the day goes on. Tempo and offensive output should be consistent in this contest. Love the parlay with CLE, too, at home in a game where they can tie up the season series.Â
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03-29-23 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 234.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
I've been wrong plenty before but I think this total will drop. Yes, Kevin Durant returns, but that often adds more ISO ball to an offense and the Suns still need to work him back in the rotation. It won't be an automatic uptick in points at a massive level. Minnesota is playing very high-quality defense right now and this is as important a spot as any for them as they try to work their way into a better position in the playoffs. A tightly fought, playoff feel likely awaits, too. I'm going with the under.Â
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
 Texas/Miami 1H under 70.5 (-120), to win 1 unitThe Hurricanes are on fire right now but we've seen their offense sputter before and after catching top-ranked Houston off guard, I expect the exceptional Texas' defense to learn from Houston's mistakes and stymie Miami early. That should slow this game down tremendously-- I have the first half 33-32 Texas.Â
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03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets OVER 236 | Top | 106-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
I just don't think any team, ANY TEAM, is playing as well as the Milwaukee Bucks right now, Even when they're starters played in limited fashion to conserve energy for today's game, the Bucks STILL blew out Utah on the road last night. Milwaukee's defense has been absolutely elite and they're playing with a ton of confidence and chemistry at the moment, from their starting lineup to their bench. They're also playing at a lightning pace, and lately Denver's defense has been very vulnerable (22nd the last 2 weeks). Denver is well-rested and at home, where they're at their most potent, so I expect a very high scoring game between two elite offenses. And I'd be crazy to not bet on Milwaukee, even in a tough spot. The Bucks have made it clear that they want the #1 seed, so they're not looking to just blow off any contest at this juncture. Khris Middleton will return tonight after some rest Friday, too. We have a lot invested in this game, but it's a lot of investment in the NBA's best team at the moment. LFG!Â
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03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga UNDER 154 | 82-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Gonzaga just keeps starting slow and UCONN has been absolutely lights out at the start of games for the whole tournament so far. Gotta risk a little for this all too obvious angle. Added the total because, as usual, while Gonzaga will look to push the pace, they've been terribly inconsistent in the first half and this isn't a defense you can simply turn around and explode in the 2H against. UCONN has kept their opponents to 65, 55, and 63 points in three tournament games and they average only 61 ppg allowed this season. I realize the Zags can score on a prolific level but UCONN's defense is playing at an elite level right now and they'll have a huge size/physicality advantage. They also play at a really slow pace-- I expect them to use that lowly tempo against Gonzaga to limit their rhythm. Â
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03-25-23 | Nets v. Heat UNDER 221.5 | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a really good defensive matchup for both teams. They're each equipped with elite defensive wings and neither team has big-men that can take over this game. Bam Adebayo has been great in spurts this season but make no mistake about it, this is Jimmy Butler's team and he'll have his offense running at a methodical, molasses-in-January like pace against a defense that's formidable on its own. The Nets got a day of rest after two humbling defeats against Cleveland but scoring won't get any easier down in Miami. At home this season, Miami plays at the 29th fastest pace in the NBA (aka SLOW), and although their defense hasn't been as consistent this year, this is the time of year where they begin to assert themselves and really stifle good offenses. The Nets' offense is disparate and inconsistent with a bunch of B to B+ type players on their starting roster. I like a slow-moving, tough-fought game between two Eastern Conference playoff contenders currently sitting in the 6th and 7th spots, respectively. Â
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Kansas State OVER 143.5 | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
If the pace remains as fast as it was in the Michigan State/Kansas State game, and we think it will, then this game is going to soar over the total. I loved the under in the Michigan State/Kansas State game but it's clear that the Wildcats can assert their style of play on any team, and there's no way that FAU's defense is as physical as the Spartan's. Kansas State should be able to have their way in this contest, as long as nerves don't cause them to miss 80% of their shots like Alabama did last night, and FAU is a rhythm-offense that can hang with Kansas State all game. Like the overs.
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State UNDER 138 | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 7 m | Show |
I'll keep playing on this angle because it keeps on working. Tom Izzo has been here many many times before and he's proving that he still has plenty of moxie as a head coach and as a motivator to young players. His guys are playing extremely hard on the defensive end of the ball, allowing only 60 and 62 points to two excellent offenses in Marquette and USC. Kansas State is another exceptional scoring team but the Spartans and they fly at a fast pace, but Michigan State's tenacious defense makes every game sloppy and blue-collar and I expect the same in this contest. Expect stretches of no scoring. Kansas State owns a top 20 defense of their own, by the way. Love the under.Â
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03-22-23 | 76ers v. Bulls OVER 222 | 116-91 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
I know what you're thinking, but literally everything went wrong offensively for both of these teams in their last matchup two nights ago. Harden went 2-14, Maxey went 9-19, Philly's bench was a combined 9-22, DeRozan went 10-22, Beverly went 2-10, and LaVine went 8-20 from the field. Chicago's bench was 10-24. Both defenses have been elite this season and that had something to do with the low total last time, but both teams will emphasize redemption on offense and both coaches will create a better game plan based on their many offensive flaws last night. That's just what happens in professional basketball. And do I think the Bulls can beat Philly twice? I do not. Expect a big game from Joel Embiid (might add a prop tomorrow), a Philly win, and many more points than Monday.Â
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03-22-23 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 234 | 127-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
This total isn't out yet and you might think I'm crazy listing our wager this high but hey, I expect a really inflated total here. The Warriors are healthy with all their offensive stars and it looks like Luka and Kyrie will return Wednesday. Golden State has been particularly clumsy on the road so I expect the added space and soft resistance Dallas grants to open up the floor for players like Curry, Klay, and Poole. Their defense is almost always flawed on the road. Luka and Kyrie are due to explode with both finally back on the starting roster and the Warriors should increase the tempo of this game, despite how slow Dallas typically likes to play, because of the opportunities the away team should get. This is the early ESPN game and when a game is featured with two high-powered offenses, we usually see points. The association loves a show!Â
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03-22-23 | Nuggets v. Wizards OVER 228 | 118-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
On the over: The Nugget defense has been terrible lately, ranked 28th in the NBA, and Washington should at least be able to put up 110-115 points at home. Denver should be able to score at will against a tired Washington defense.Â
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03-20-23 | Pacers v. Hornets OVER 234.5 | 109-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
This is just a touch too low. I know Haliburton is out but the Pacers have some nice developmental talent and neither team is playing any defense right now. This is a showcase game for up and coming younger players and they both play at a really fast pace, especially Indiana lately. I'll take the over but with two bad teams, just one unit.Â
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03-19-23 | Michigan State v. Marquette UNDER 140.5 | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
The Spartans ability to bring hard-nosed blue collar style of basketball into big games and Marquette's defense isn't a slouch either. The moment is getting more pressurized-- I think this is 6-7 points too high.Â
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03-18-23 | Kings v. Wizards OVER 235.5 | Top | 132-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
The Kings invade DC in hopes for another offensive showcase and I don't see how the Wizards can fend them off. Washington is fully healthy, we like that for the over, but they're on a B2B after losing at Cleveland last night. That's an incredibly tough spot to turn around and play with the same intensity on defense, while the Kings will assume their typical shtick and run up and down the floor with their top 10 pace. After a few weird Sacramento unders, this feels like another chance for the Kings to explode on offense and we like that to create a high-scoring affair.Â
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03-18-23 | Wolves v. Raptors UNDER 227.5 | 107-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
T-Wolves TT under 108.5 (-110), to win 2 unitsAnthony Edwards went down to injury last night and this is a horrific spot for the Timberwolves off an OT loss on the road at Chicago last night. Tonight marks the Wolves' fourth game in five days and the Raptors are better rested, they've been at home, and their defense plays better at Scotia Bank Arena. They'll probably look to play slow and steady, too, since they have a quick trip to Milwaukee to consider tomorrow night. A pedestrian pace should be at hand here, and I trust that Toronto can limit the T-Wolves without their star.
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03-18-23 | Princeton v. Missouri UNDER 148.5 | 78-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Mizzou's offense has been lighting it up and should be too much for Princeton to keep up with, but the Tigers' defense isn't spoken about enough, They're terrific in their half court set and preventing teams from getting easy buckets in the mid-range. They're also hawks at defensive rebounding and barely ever allow a second chance opportunity. That's a perfect recipe for a slow-paced Princeton offense that too often relies on the efficient mid-court two pointer to salvage their offense. The Tigers run away with this one and stymie Princeton when they're on defense. |
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03-18-23 | Nuggets v. Knicks UNDER 230.5 | Top | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
No Jalen Brunson means less pace and a little less offense from the Knicks, but they can be competitive with their other stars and a defense that's played well lately. They've had four days to rest for this game so their defending ability will be fresh, while Denver has a game tomorrow at Brooklyn and that usually results in a lethargic team on days like today. The Knicks might be the right side off more rest but the Nuggets could turn it on any second. I'll settle with the under.Â
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03-18-23 | Furman v. San Diego State UNDER 137.5 | 52-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
The stingy defense of the Aztecs are the second elite defense in a row that Furman has had to contend with and this one might be too much to handle. Furman stunned UVA with their constant perimeter shooting and it was just enough to get the job done. Problem is, no one defends the 3 better than San Diego State. The Aztecs are the more talented squad and they attack the rim with confidence. I'm on the cinderella story to end.
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03-17-23 | Warriors v. Hawks UNDER 247.5 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
I don't really trust the Hawks, they've been losing a lot and playing ZERO defense lately (30th in defensive rating over their last 6 games), but this is a spot I can't not bet on. This game is trending away from Golden State. Draymond is suspended and will miss Friday's action, Steph Curry is showing up on the injury report with sore thumb issues and when that happens, a player usually doesn't suit up. Kevon Looney also appeared on the injury report early tonight due to lower back soreness. Andrew Wiggins is still out because of a family issue, and Gary Payton II can't suit up yet. That leaves Klay, Jordan Poole, Donte DiVicenzo, and a bunch of 2nd to 3rd rotation role players to fill the void. Klay has played really well and Jordan Poole has an A+ matchup against a bad transition/front court defense, but Atlanta knows they need to correct their ways. The Hawks sit in the 8th spot of the Eastern Conference, a vulnerable position considering the new "play in" rules, and they've had four whole days to think about their recent failures. They've been at home working out their kinks all week, they're fully healthy, and a win against the champs would boost their confidence, even if it's a pretend version of Golden State. Oh yea, and Dub City still can't buy a win on the road. The Hawks are the only side to look at Friday night in this matchup. Taking the under too since Atlanta's defense should show up in revenge mode.
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03-14-23 | Bucks v. Suns OVER 232 | 116-104 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
Two teams with little rest and both are top 5 on offense the last two weeks. Even if a star or two sits out, love this over. |
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03-14-23 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. SE Missouri State UNDER 156 | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Both teams are predicated on offense so at face value this should be a high-paced, high-scoring game, but I think not in this case. Both squads know the key to winning the game is to step up defensively and this line is way too inflated given the nerve-racking circumstances of the First Four. Give me an under.
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03-10-23 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 238 | Top | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Two really good defensive teams let the other shoot well over 50% in their matchup two days ago. And they still only scored 242 points. This is bound for supreme regression. Two really good defensive teams let the other shoot well over 50% in their matchup two days ago. And they still only scored 242 points. This is bound for supreme regression.Â
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03-09-23 | Arizona State v. USC UNDER 139.5 | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Arizona State was clunky last night on offense and although the Trojans are more well-rested, the lack of recency on the court could mean a flat start for a team that's predicated on defense, anyway. I see this one starting real slow. |
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03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 235.5 | Top | 110-131 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Warriors/Grizz under 235 (-115), to win 2 unitsWarriors/Grizz 1H under 120.5 (-110), to win 1 unitDraymond Green over 0.5 threes (+140), to win 0.7 unitsDraymond Green over 14.5 pts/assists (-125), to win 1 unitTwo struggling teams talking some serious trash to one another before this big game and they both are getting more desperate as the playoffs near. Both teams are struggling offensively, lord knows the Warriors aren't as efficient on the road, and the hatred both teams have for one another will be the prevailing and most important effect on this game. Physical, tough playoff basketball. Last game they both flew at a faster pace but that was a back n forth Ja Morant-led-tempo game and this one is bound to look way different with all the animosity. Draymond will show up big tonight and draw a lot of fouls and attention while he dishes out the ball, and both numbers are way too high.
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03-09-23 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 133 | 69-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
It'll take an offensive explosion from the Bruins to create an over here. UCLA is nearly a double-digit favorite against a team that's top 20 in defensive efficiency. I like that for fewer free throws at the end and and I like that to negate UCLA's chances to go off offensively. The Bruins should be able to control the pace of this game (ahem, SLOW) and both defenses will make life hard for the other team, especially with the brand new nerves of conference tournament play. |
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03-09-23 | Ohio State v. Iowa UNDER 153.5 | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
Both of these teams win with their offense and their disappointing defenses suggest an over, but this total is huge for a Big 10 tournament game and the Big 10 is notorious for gritty, physical contests when the postseason begins. Iowa hasn't been at their best offensively, nor has Ohio State, and the nerves of a close game should amount to far fewer points than the sportsbooks expect. |
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03-07-23 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's OVER 138 | 77-51 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
There's a reason this line has moved in the Bulldogs direction. Gonzaga is starting to peak at the right time, and they're now properly ranked as the #4 team in the nation, according to Haslametrics. They've won 8 straight games and they own a significant experience edge. This should be a high-scoring, contentious affair between a perennial elite and their little brother. I trust the older sibling. Â |
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03-07-23 | Massachusetts v. Richmond UNDER 142.5 | 38-71 | Win | 100 | 1 h 51 m | Show | |
Parlay: Richmond MLÂ + under 141.5 (+222), to win 2.22 unitsRichmond has way more experience in these big games. They ran the table and won the A-10 Conference Tournament last year and while that's unlikely this go-round, the Spiders are still more tested and effective with the basketball in these spots. Both teams finished the season with a lot of losses and a lot of inefficient offense. UMass has struggled to take care of the basketball, they're one of the worst in the A-10 in that department, and Richmond could hurt them early and often from beyond the arc. This checks out as a closely fought game with a total that's way too high for how inefficient these offenses can be and with the added pressure of tournament play. I'll give the edge to the Spiders and I'll parlay with an under.
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03-05-23 | American v. Lafayette OVER 120.5 | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
It's the Patriot League, we get it, but they gotta score over this point total, right? American had a piss-poor, insanely low scoring game against Navy in their last win, a surprise since they were huge underdogs by the time that line closed, but Lafayette is hardly a defense to fear and I expect the American Eagles to at least make some improvements on that side of the court. Lafayette, on the other hand, has some nice momentum after an upset of their own, knocking off Lehigh in the last round of their tournament. This contest goes over.Â
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03-05-23 | Suns v. Mavs OVER 232.5 | 130-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
This is going to be a 3-point shooting exhibition. Terrence Ross should return for Phoenix, giving the Suns' another sharpshooter, and the Mavs are ripe for a big game at home behind their two stars. Kyrie will care more going up against Durant and vice versa. We also know that Devin Booker is probably the biggest benefactor from the Durant trade, since he's been more open and more hidden from defenses behind the prowess of KD. I think this is a show, much like Philly/Milwaukee Saturday.Â
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03-04-23 | Tennessee v. Auburn UNDER 130 | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
Auburn is coming off that heart-breaking loss to Alabama but their stingy defense was on display all game until the Crimson Tide blew it up in the second half. In a more comfortable environment and in a redemption spot for their defense, I expect them to stifle a less-talented offense today. And we all know how elite Tennessee's defense is, ranked #1 on Haslametrics, an absolutely suffocating crew of defenders from the field and perimeter. I expect a slow, blue collar battle in the paint and an under.Â
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03-04-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M UNDER 150.5 | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Texas A&M has one of the best defenses in the country because of how complete they are. They stifle opponents in the perimeter and mid-range, and while they're not the biggest team, the pressure of playing at College Station with the intensity of the Aggies should be plenty to throw off the long, able bodies of Alabama's offense. The Crimson Tide are no slouches on defense, either. They absolutely do not allow opponents near the rim and the Aggies aren't a good enough shooting team to run away scoring from the perimeter. I like a battle defensively and a slower paced game because of how the Aggies prefer to play in the half court.Â
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03-03-23 | Magic v. Hornets UNDER 226 | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Â
Parlay Magic ML + Under 225.5 (+200), to win 2 units The Hornets are done without LaMelo Ball. Back when he had an extended absence, they went 6-18, a 25% winning percentage, and they were one of the worst offenses in the NBA, ranging from 28th to 30th in offensive efficiency. Their pace also drops significantly when he's out of the lineup. I was stubborn with our Suns/Hornets over play the other night, but not this time. The Hornets are also missing the dynamic offensive abilities of Mason Plumlee after they traded him to LAC, and without Ball they drop significantly in points per possession and effective field goal percentage. No player has a greater effect on those stats than LaMelo for the Hornets. The Magic have been averaging only 108 ppg over their last 10 matchups, playing top 10 defense and a slow pace, as usual. It's likely the Hornets go into give-up mode moving forward, too. Take the Magic and under. |
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03-02-23 | Detroit v. Youngstown State OVER 156.5 | Top | 66-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
We know Detroit-Mercy can put up points, that's one angle we've cashed on a few times with them this season, and now they'll face the most potent offense in the Horizon league (ranked 37th overall on Haslametrics) and I foresee a battle of scoring taking place today. Again, in tournament play teams are going to attack and persist more than usual and both of these squads are considerably better on the offensive end of the court. Detroit Mercy couldn't hit a 3 to save their lives in the first contest between these teams and they still reached 79 points. Both teams like to play with some pace when they're in rhythm and this total is a solid 5-7 points too low, IMO. One of my favorite plays of the day.Â
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03-01-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 234 | 113-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
This qualifies as a sleepy, sleepy game after both teams exerted full effort against their opponents on Tuesday night. Houston had to deal with one of the NBA's best, getting trounced by Denver on their home floor, and Memphis has to avenge a comeback in the second half with some heroic efforts from Ja Morant and JJJ and his counterparts. I don't think either team cares much about this game, nor will they be sharp enough to be that efficient from the floor. And lord knows Houston could care less about winning anything. This number is too high for me-- I see a 217-201 type ending. Yes, I lean Memphis, but I really like the under. We'll probably look to play Houston in the 1H tomorrow, too.Â
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03-01-23 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 228.5 | 105-91 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
This is obviously less ideal without LaMelo Ball in the lineup but the line has adjusted. The total would be well into the 230s if he wasn't out. With Ball out for the season, the Hornets will try to maintain their pace (#1 in the NBA over their last 6 games, which were all Ws) and offensive prowess, which is now a fringe top 10 unit. The Suns will be more focused on chemistry on offense as Kevin Durant sees his first action in an orange and black uniform. Durant's addition to an already talented Suns' offensive team could be fireworks and I think Durant could go off tonight against a familiar foe. Give me more points in a showcase game-- I have this as a 123-112 Suns' win. Â
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03-01-23 | Xavier v. Providence OVER 151 | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
This line has dropped way too low for two potent offenses and Xavier's pace alone could get this to 140. Foul shots in a close game could help, too. I was comfortable with this at 154-- glad we waited!
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02-28-23 | Pacers v. Mavs OVER 236.5 | 124-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
We have a number of things working in our favor for this over. Firstly, Dallas is becoming an over team. Especially against teams that profile similarly to the Pacers, their recent games have gone over (SAC, SAS, MIN). The Pacers are another one of those types of teams-- very little defense to speak of, but they can hang in games and beat teams because of their offensive talent. The Pacers and Mavericks are both top 11 offenses, top 10 in efficient field goal percentage, and in the bottom third of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Even better, Dallas is 3rd in the NBA in three-point attempts per game and the Pacers are 26th overall in opponent three-point percentage. Dallas should be able to have their way early and often from beyond the arc. Dallas is allowing 117 ppg since Kyrie came on board and at the listed number, that means this total should eclipse 240. I'll take the over for 1 unit.
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02-28-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 236.5 | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
The last game was a high scoring affair (243 points) between these two teams a few weeks ago. Russell Westbrook had one of his best games of the season, exploding off the bench for 29 points. Lebron James added 9 rebounds and 6 assists to add to the win for LAL. It was a weird game where the Lakers were without AD and some of their regular starters but they made it happen nonetheless. That was at the Staples Center; this will not be. I think the Grizzlies are about to go on a run. They have a B2B Wednesday at Houston but I'm not worried-- that's not a game Memphis will sweat and the Lakers are turning into a rival between a true elite in the West (Memphis) and still a wannabe in the Lake-show. Memphis' defense has been as good as any over the past few weeks and it's the reason they've been able to accrue a few wins. The Lakers will be without Lebron and Russ for this one, leaving it all on the questionable shoulders of Anthony Davis. We'll see what version we get ofm AD, and I wouldn't blame those wanting to bet on his props, but I'm willing to bet Jaren Jackson Jr. is up to the task. I like this game to end around 225 as the Grizzlies stifle a clumsy Lakers' offense without Lebron, Russ, and probably D. Russell. Grizzlies go up quick and cover the first half, too.Â
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02-27-23 | Magic v. Pelicans UNDER 226.5 | 101-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
We have a few reasons to really like this under-- I have the game ending at 219. The Pelicans and Magic are both in the back half of the NBA in tempo-- they're more methodical than most teams. Orlando is the 27th best offense in the NBA over the last 5 games, which is basically since the trade deadline. and they've averaged only 106 ppg over their last 7 games. The Pelicans are the 26th rated offense and they've only scored 107 ppg over their last 6 games. Meanwhile, Orlando is a top 5 defensive team lately, limiting good offenses like the Pacers, Knicks, Nuggets, and 76ers to far below their averages in recent games, while the Pelicans are always capable of turning up their level of play. They'll need to play better defense without Zion and still without the rhythm they were hoping for on the offensive side of the ball. Neither team is succeeding at hitting threes lately, either. This should qualify as a slow-based, challenging game for both offenses and could easily be one of those matchups that doesn't produce over 200 points. Give me the under.  Â
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02-26-23 | Lakers v. Mavs OVER 235.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
The Lakers have been one of the fastest teams in the NBA over the last few weeks and Dallas games have averaged 240 ppg since Kyrie has been in their lineup. The Mavs, like we keep saying, improved on offense after the trade but they also lost some real talent on defense. AD and Lebron are feeling themselves right now and even if Russell doesn't play tonight, he's doubtful, the Lakers are starting to show signs of chemistry. Whether they're actually good or not doesn't matter sometimes, that they believe they're good matters more. I love the Kyrie vs. Lebron battle, too, thus my play on a Kyrie prop, and I expect a lot of points in a showcase game on Sunday between two Western Conference rivals.Â
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02-26-23 | Wisconsin v. Michigan UNDER 129.5 | 79-87 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
I think Michigan wins this game but the number is a little too big for me. We'll play on the total instead. The Wolverines want revenge at home but they're main guy, Jett Howard, is likely out today. He's their leading scorer but he keeps dealing with ankle injuries and Juwan Howard has said they won't rush him back. The Badgers could struggle getting up points on the road and they lack depth on offense, and both teams are highly ranked on the defensive end of the court. Â
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02-25-23 | Colgate v. Navy OVER 142.5 | 64-60 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Both of these teams have been absolutely surging lately. This is a revenge game for the Midshipmen at home after getting very humbled by Colgate way earlier in the season. Navy has scored 73 ppg in their last 6 games, while the Patriot League leader Colgate has averaged 78 ppg all season. They've eclipsed their average in three of their last five contests, too. I think we see points in this battle.Â
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02-25-23 | Wright State v. Detroit OVER 160.5 | 82-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
We've seen Detroit-Mercy explode on offense in good spots before and this is another great setup for that. At home in a revenge game against their in-conference foe, last time these two teams met they scored well over 170 points. That's because the Titans set the tone nice and early and the Raiders followed in suit. The same will happen today. Wouldn't blame you for taking a parlay here either-- Detroit Mercy overruns the Raiders at home.Â
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02-24-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 218.5 | 99-128 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Stingy Miami defense is a thing we can count on and might be the only thing we can count on from Miami in the back half of the season. Their offense hasn't been consistent at all through the first 4 months. Tyler Herro is also banged up coming off a knee injury, and the Bucks will likely be without Giannis and Pat Connaughton. Giannis went off in their last battle for 35 points, which was the only game that eclipsed this total tonight, and Giannis' absence will be a massive limitation to the Bucks' offense. I love Milwaukee's chances to make the Finals this year, but without Giannis getting to the charity stripe and facilitating offense, they're absolutely a different team. They'll also likely proceed at a much slower pace. These are two gifted paint defenses with limited three point shooters tonight and that's the biggest reason why I like the under, along with the other factors above. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are bound to produce at a higher level in this contest-- I wouldn't blame you for taking a prop on either of them and I might do so myself. TBD.Â
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02-23-23 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 238 | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 25 m | Show | |
It's time to win for both Golden State and LAL, and I like the way the new-look Lakers played in their last game before the ASB. Lebron James says he's dedicated to playing as often as he can so his team can make the playoffs, Golden State's defense isn't as good on the road, and I don't think the Lakers can stop the Warriors' versatile guards in this game. High paced by LAL at home and many points incoming.
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02-22-23 | Navy v. American OVER 126.5 | 70-54 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a weird line no doubt, thus our low-unit-bet. We still have to bet on it, though. American has been on a downward spiral over the last 7-10 days, their true colors starting to show, while Navy has been consistently one of the best teams in the Patriot League all season. Navy has a big lookahead game against Colgate Saturday and that might be built into this line, but as long as Navy's superior defense shows up this game shouldn't very close. Since it's at AU and they're more comfortable at home, we'll go with this total going over as a nice hedge, too. Navy's defense is significantly better but they could start sleepy and let AU put up some points before they slow the game down.Â
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02-22-23 | Marshall v. James Madison UNDER 158.5 | Top | 92-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
JMU survives by their defense, which is considerably better than Marshall's, and the Thundering Herd typically have issues on the road. This total is way too high for those circumstances. Both teams run fast, that can be a concern, but besides one blip on the radar (an OT game), JMU has kept teams to only 67.5 ppg in the last 10 games, and that was an 8-2 stretch. The Dukes haven't given us any reason to believe they can't at least somewhat limit Marshall, they did it well in their first game (Marshall scored only 66 at home), but I'd rather take a low-total than another win for JMU since it's a revenge spot for the Herd.Â
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02-19-23 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Detroit OVER 150.5 | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
I want to bet on IUPUIÂ +16.5 since this is a major letdown spot for DM after a big win the other night, but I'd rather play on the total. IUPUI is in the bottom 5 worst teams in the nation according to Haslametrics, but the area that Detroit-Mercy is similar is on defense. They rank 331st, right there with the absolute worst. If they let their guard down, IUPUI can score (they're coming off an 81 point game against Oakland, a defense comparable to DM). I think this feels like a Rockets/Thunder game-- to poor teams that can put up points. I'll take the over.Â
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02-18-23 | Illinois v. Indiana OVER 142 | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Credit to the Indiana defense in their first matchup, but the fact is Illinois just couldn't make a shot, either. The Illini put up 65 points even though they shot under 39% - I'm thinking that won't happen in this battle. Two arch-rivals who thrive near the rim are bound to find some success. This has points written all over it - Indiana's comfortable at home and should easily eclipse 70 points, while Illinois is bound to improve after their previously disappointing showing against the Hoosiers. Time for an over.Â
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02-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
More of a description incoming, but these are two elite defenses and Phoenix has slowed down and limited teams really well at home. The Clippers are just too talented at full strength and I don't think this version of the Suns can ultimately keep up.   Â
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02-15-23 | Pelicans v. Lakers OVER 234.5 | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Last time these two teams faced they weren't very efficient from the floor and they still eclipsed 250 points. The pace was absolutely blitzing in that battle, which suited the Lakers, but the game ultimately got away from them in the 4th QTR when New Orleans held them to only 20 points. Lebron James is likely to play tonight, according to coach Darvin Ham, and that should make a big difference. Lebron creates more space and opportunities for the Lakers' offense and their pace has been hyper-fast when he's on the floor. Strange but true, since he's an old man playing basketball at this point by all accounts. New Orleans' offense is coming together at the right time, putting up 118.6 ppg in their last 5 contests. Ingram is integrated again, and besides Zion this is a healthy, capable roster that can run the floor and hang with LAL. The Lakers are favored and they're at home so I think they create a high-tempo game from the onset. Give me the over.Â
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02-15-23 | Spurs v. Hornets UNDER 241 | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
On paper you might think these two teams will produce an obvious over-bet. Not so fast, my friends. The Hornets and Spurs are only averaging 112 ppg and since the start of the calendar year, they're both bottom 5 offenses. San Antonio is not-so-proudly the worst in the NBA overall. Charlotte has at least improved in some areas on defense, and since the start of February the Spurs aren't the worst, either. Since the start of January, only 5 of the Hornets 22 games have gone over the total listed today. Nine out of the Spurs' last 22 games went over today's total, but I care less about that-- the Spurs have faced offenses that are considerably more efficient than Charlotte. The Hornets are also 17-9 ATS to the under at home. This is a pure numbers' play-- I think it's inflated. |
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02-14-23 | Kings v. Suns UNDER 234 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
The Kings and Suns are among the best ATS-under teams in the association in these situations. Firstly, the Kings are 18-9 ATS on the road to the under and the Suns at home are 16-12 ATS under. The Suns play a bottom-third pace on their home floor and still without Kevin Durant, I expect them to turn to their defense often. They also don't have a dynamic scoring roster right now, they just don't, so they'll NEED to apply defense and slow down the game to stay in this. Phoenix won the last battle so this one means even more to their divisional foe, but I wouldn't expect either team to have crazy offensive success in a rivalry like this, especially one that could be growing in prominence. The Kings have been a great offense against only bad teams lately - that's not Phoenix at home. Give me the under-- I have it at 225.Â
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02-13-23 | Wolves v. Mavs OVER 231.5 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
02-11-23 | Marquette v. Georgetown UNDER 152.5 | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a marquette total but do we know that Georgetown can contribute enough against a really good defense? I don't. And in a game that could be an annihilation, overs become harder without a melee of fouls at the end. Â
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02-10-23 | Bucks v. Clippers UNDER 227.5 | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Parlay: Clippers win + MIL/LAC Under 227 (+243), to win 2.43 unitsClippers -2 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsNot a lot of reason to not bet on Milwaukee right now but this is a much better situation for the Clippers. Milwaukee fought hard last night for a win against the Lakers, who literally couldn't miss a shot until the fourth quarter, and LAC just got embarrassed by Kyrie at home after a long road trip. I think we see the best version of Kawhi, PG, and the Clippers tonight in another tough-fought game between two exceptionally talented defenses. The Bucks gotta be at least a little tired after last night.Â
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02-10-23 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 225.5 | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a really sleepy spot for the Celtics between two marquee games. They just beat Philly in an excellent all-around showing without Jaylen Brown for most of that game and without Marcus Smart, and here comes the perennial loser in the Charlotte Hornets right before Phily has a huge game against Memphis on Sunday. Really bad sandwich spot, and these two teams usually put up points when they meet. I think defenses are down (Charlotte plays tomorrow, too) and we see a high paced game with little resistance.Â
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