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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-09-22 | Knicks v. Hornets UNDER 224.5 | 121-102 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
The Hornets are largely inept at scoring these daysAnd they play a lot slower than they used to. No LaMelo Ball, no tempo. No Dennis Smith Jr. slows them down, tooThe Knicks are emphasizing defense and it's starting to click. They've allowed only 82 and 89 points in their last two games, against much better offenses.The Knicks are a slow-tempo team again.The Knicks, on the road, shoot poorly. They're effective FG % is dead last away from MSG
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12-08-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 228.5 | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
This number's been ticking up for good reason.Both teams have regressed on defense, especially Portland. Denver's never been good.Denver plays with more pace on the road to compensate.Denver has lost 3 in a row and they've been stifled at various moments by good defenses in their last 3 games. I think they get-right tonight.Both teams have matchup advantages on offense-- Denver's size, Portland's guards.I set this number at 234. Their first game ended in a 245 point total, and I don't think that was an aberration.Hit the over.
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12-07-22 | Celtics v. Suns UNDER 231.5 | 125-98 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
This game means more to the Suns than it does to the Celtics, off a loss, wanting to prove they can hang with the league's best.Phoenix's defensive ratings go way up at home, even without CP3Boston probably has half of their focus on the Warriors, the team that defeated them in the NBA Finals, in their lookahead matchup on Saturday. Boston's offense is beyond overdue for regression and I believe we started to see some of that Monday in a more inefficient night in TorontoI like how Boston's defenders match up against Phoenix, and visa versa. Boston is more stout and physical, but the Suns are pests and like quick little bees. Both match up equally annoying to their opponent's offenseI have this at 222, so we have to go for more than 1 unit- LFG
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12-07-22 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 232.5 | 102-123 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
Both teams are very proficient scoring in the paint, lots of high % shots incomingOKC is the fastest team in the NBA their last 3 gamesThey're also a top 10 offense who's learned how to thrive even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in their lineup. With him back, OKC can bring the points and the pace, like usualMemphis runs faster and more explosive at homeTheir offense has been clicking, even when their stars are outI set this at 235 - taking the over
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12-07-22 | Kings v. Bucks UNDER 236 | 113-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
Another huge total and even though the Kings routinely hit these, we should only bet overs on totals this big in unique situationsThe Bucks are healthier than they've ever been all seasonGiannis and Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday can clamp onto the Kings' stars and limit their productionSabonis, in particularly, has a very difficult matchup against Lopez/Giannis tonightI think Milwaukee sees stopping the Kings' offense as a personal challenge-- UNDER
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12-05-22 | Pacers v. Warriors OVER 241.5 | 112-104 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a sky-high total but it should be. So far the Warriors are unable to play any brand of solid defense this season (it probably has to do with their constant rotations to work-in the young blood), and the Pacers play as fast as any team in the NBA and they're an offense-first outfit. Two teams that should be chasing one another, I'll take the over. Only 1 unit since my number has it close at 244.Â
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12-04-22 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 57 m | Show | |
The Raiders offense is finally starting to work, Josh Jacobs can run ALL OVER the Chargers, and Justin Herbert should be able to slice and dice the Raiders secondary. Herbert should finally get Mike Williams AND Keenan Allen back, too, which is a big time mismatch against the Raiders' secondary. Love the over.Â
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12-04-22 | Dolphins v. 49ers OVER 45.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 162 h 16 m | Show | |
Bettors will almost certainly push this total high. McDaniel has this game circled I'm sure and it's probably another reason why he didn't show much in the second half on Sunday. The 49ers won't face nearly the same resistance they did against a tough Saints' defense that got back Cam Jordan and were basically playing for their season. I expect plenty of points in this contest.,Â
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12-04-22 | Jaguars v. Lions OVER 51.5 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 114 h 33 m | Show | |
 Jags/Lions over 51.5 (-105), to win 1 unitLiking what I'm seeing from the Jags' offense, the Lions moved the ball up and down the field on Buffalo and should have little issue here, they're healthy, and a dome is a fine environment for some points. Only 1 unit because it's very close to where I put the total myself.Â
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12-03-22 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 232 | 101-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Neither team will want to play defense tonight after playing last night, and neither squad has played good defense so far this season anyway. Two teams that like to run fast and the Warriors should be able to pile up points at will - only way we can bet this is high-scoring and Warriors.Â
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12-02-22 | Nuggets v. Hawks OVER 231.5 | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
John Collins is OUT tonight for Atlanta and that's a good thing for over bets. He's an important piece of their defense and it should afford Denver some better looks. The Hawks have been running with a top 10 tempo and they're even faster at home, rated #3 in pace on their own floor. I think Atlanta can establish that pace and force Denver to play their brand of basketball, which should mean plenty of points. Two talented offenses battling on a Friday and let's face it, Denver's defense is never quite up to par. I have this at 235, like the over.Â
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 45.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
I think the sharps will favor New England at home coming off a loss to keep this close so I expect to see some line movement towards the Patriots. If that happens, it should only make this total fall lower. New England's defense in a desperate spot should be able to at least limit Josh Allen, although few can completely contain him. The Bills are due positive regression on defense, too, after allowing Detroit to experience way too much success on Thanksgiving. A low-scoring divisional battle is what I see in a cold, brutal Massachusetts setting.Â
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11-30-22 | Wizards v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
Massive regression is due for the Wizards and this is a great spot for a burgeoning Nets' defense to take advantage. Washington's defense is almost always present, too. I had this total a whole 10 points lower.Â
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11-29-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 226.5 | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
Warriors/Mavericks over 227.5 (-110), to win 2 unitsThe Warriors are starting to find a rhythm and I think they might win this showdown at Dallas. Problem is, the Mavericks have now lost four straight and this is a big motivational spot for them to correct their wrongs. In any event, I think Golden State will determine the tempo of this game. The Warriors are consistently putting up huge totals, and they've won six out of their last eight contests doing just that. In those 6 wins, they averaged 126.6 ppg. Dallas has slipped down to one of the worst defenses in the NBA over their last 5 games, and I don't think this is the ideal spot for them to see regression. Win or lose, Golden State sets the tone and this is a high-scoring affair between two Western Conference giants.
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11-28-22 | Suns v. Kings OVER 231 | 122-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
This line is a little lower than you might expect but that's out of respect for the Suns' defense, which continues to impress. Thing is, they've been at home against mostly clunky offenses. Second of all, the Kings are coming off 3 days rest and after two straight games where they'd have underwhelming offensive performances, they're bound to explode tonight. I think the Kings set the tone and lead the tempo of this game. We've seen Phoenix move faster and put up more points in these instances (T-Wolves, Warriors, Jazz) and I think that's what this game looks like tonight. I think the total lands at 238.Â
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts UNDER 39.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Yea I just don't see where the points come in this affair. The Steelers are playing better defense and while Pittsburgh put up 30 points last week at home, I'm not sure they'll have the same success against a Colts' defense that's getting healthier (Buckner, Ngakoue, etc.), especially at home. Unders in Colts games are 9-2 this year for a reason; their offense fails and their defense picks them off the ground every week. I think the Steelers are a live dog and they thrive on defense throughout, while the Colts mostly stymie Pittsburgh's drives, too. This is a 19-17 type game to me. |
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11-27-22 | Bucs v. Browns UNDER 43.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 99 h 25 m | Show | |
Up to 20 mph winds will smack Cleveland on Sunday and the Bucs are 8-2 to the under this season. Ball control, running, wind, cold, UNDER. |
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11-25-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 228.5 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
CJ McCollum out for the Pelicans should only make New Orleans run faster - he's a great player obviously but he's less likely to push the pace. The Grizzlies are running at a much faster tempo, top 10 over their last 5 games, and New Orleans should attack the basket with ferocity like they always do. The Grizzlies shot poorly in their first matchup and will look to correct those inefficiencies tonight, while the Pelicans are top 5 in OFF EFF lately and I trust that their chemistry will continue against a less able defense in Memphis. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings UNDER 42.5 | 26-33 | Loss | -108 | 57 h 5 m | Show | |
Vikings first drive: TD (+240), to win 2.4 unitsPats/Vikings under 42.5 (-108), to win 1.5 unitsChristian Darrisaw, Minnesota's gifted left tackle and easily the best offensive lineman on their team this season, will be OUT for this contest. That's not good for the Vikings. The Purple-People-Eaters typically play their best offense at the beginning of games and they'll be extremely focused on getting out there and scoring early after their putrid 3-point output on Sunday against Dallas. They can hone in and plan for that all week leading up to this game. The Patriots should ultimately slow this game down, though, and I'm not sure the Vikings will be able to reach 20+ points with against a New England unit that's firing on all cylinders. Â
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions OVER 54 | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
Bills/Lions over 54 (-110), to win 2 unitsLet's not get this twisted and outsmart ourselves. The Lions have scored over 30 points in two straight weeks and these Thanksgiving games matter to them-- both for pride and for tradition. The Bills are in a good spot b/c they get to keep bonding on the road at Detroit, where they played Sunday. I also love that Buffalo found their rhythm in the second half of Week 11-- that should continue into this game. The Lions' offense is healthier than it's been all year and they're 7-3 ATS to the over. This is a big number but it's not big enough-- I think we see a 34-24 type game. Â
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11-23-22 | Wizards v. Heat OVER 211.5 | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
Tyler Herro should be back to support Bam Adebayo tomorrow. Dedmon, Strus, and Vincent could also be back. Bradley Beal is questionable but I suspect he'll compete. It's a game before Thanksgiving, so a showcase game of sorts, and both teams shot TERRIBLY when they met a few days ago. This will go higher than expected as both squads recalibrate and focus on offense.
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11-23-22 | Kings v. Hawks UNDER 239.5 | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
This line is a bit too high. All of the Kings' main scorers played for over 33 minutes in a tough game at Memphis last night. Even Malik Monk put in over 20 minutes off the bench, one of their more reliable 2nd unit scorers. The Hawks have been moving fast at home, that's true, but they're also a top 11 defense and their offensive efficiency has waned as of late. When a team like the Hawks can't obliterate a team offensively, they turn to their defense. Lately Atlanta has allowed too many points in losses, too, including 114 to Cleveland, 126 to Boston, 121 to Philly, and 125 to Utah. The emphasis should be on slowing down the Kings and making life difficult for their surging offense on their home floor. Going under this time.Â
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11-22-22 | Kings v. Grizzlies OVER 232 | 113-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Kings -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsKings/Grizzlies over 233 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsJa Morant is doubtful and we know the Grizz continue to play without Desmond Bane. The Kings have absolutely no reason to change their style of play-- it's working! They're running fast, they're the #1 offense in the NBA right now, they're healthy, and this is a game they can win by margin. Their approach should be the same as always-- tire out a Grizzlies team that likes to go fast at home too. In this case, we like that for the over, but the Grizz probably don't have the personnel to keep up offensively. Go Kings!
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 172 h 20 m | Show | |
I show a significant disparity between my numbers and the total (I'm at 47.5). The Arizona Cardinals’ defense does not succeed against offenses like San Francisco. Similarly built programs like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Seahawks own creative, highly nuanced attacks that cause defenders to miss their assignments. Misdirection and trickery is what Kyle Shanahan does best, and I think it will work really well against the Cardinals’ front seven. Arizona has a tough interior, but they’re slow. San Francisco’s speed should create scoring opportunities early and often. Additionally, Kyler Murray should return. Commentary on the Arizona offense finding more rhythm without Murray is surfacing, but the Cardinals will need his dynamic playmaking ability against a potent team like the 49ers. The 49ers’ defense is also among the most talented in the NFL, and they play with a ton of breaking speed to the ball. From our perspective, this game feels like it could be full of big plays, from both the offenses and defenses, and it’s likely we’ll see some turnovers, too. I like the over and I’m betting on it now.  |
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11-20-22 | Raiders v. Broncos UNDER 41.5 | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 123 h 41 m | Show | |
Broncos -2.5 (-115), to win 2.5 units Raiders/Broncos under 41.5 (-110), to win 2 unitsThe best defense in the NFL, at home, in a revenge game, against a Raiders team that's in COMPLETE disarray. I think they fully give up on their coach here and I might look at alt-lines or shut-out props; the probabilities are higher than usual. |
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11-20-22 | Jets v. Patriots UNDER 38.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 146 h 33 m | Show | |
Jets/Patriots under 38.5 (-110), to win 1 unit This line is dropping as I write this. Two teams with vulnerable QB play and two teams predicated on the run and on their defense. It'll be cold, too.  Finding a way to submit these derivative plays here: Ravens 1H -7 (-105), to win 1 unit I love how the Ravens looked before their bye and I hate the Panthers with Baker Mayfield. In a game that should be windy and cold, I don't see the Panthers being able to stop the high-powered arm of Lamar Jackson or his legs early. They've had 2 weeks to prepare, they're at home, and their defense looked sensational with Roquan Smith. All Ravens in the first 30 minutes. Lions/Giants 1H under 22 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsResult of the Giants first drive: Punt (EVEN), to win 1 unitThe Giants have been more productive in the 2nd half of games all year, and the Lions are only averaging 15 ppg on the road. If it wasn't for last week's win against a bad Chicago offense, that would only be 10 ppg on the road. The Giants' defense tends to play really well early, too, since it usually takes a bit for their offense to get in-rhythm. It'll be windy and cold at Giants stadium and this is too many points early in the contest, and I don't see the Giants scoring on their first drive, either. Bengals/Steelers 1Q under 7.5 (-130), to win 1.5 unitsIt'll be windy and cold in Pittsburgh in a battle of the AFC North. The Bengals will button up and play safe - they can't turn that ball over 5 fucking times like they did at the start of the season - while the Steelers should be stymied throughout this contest against an above average Bengals defense. Burrow is capable of breaking out later, especially in a revenge spot, but I like this game to proceed slowly out the gate.  |
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11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons OVER 49.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 143 h 4 m | Show | |
The Falcons are competing for the NFC South title and this is a game they can win. The Bears aren’t competing for much of anything but I don’t see how the Falcons’ defense can stop this version of Fields. Atlanta has one of the lowest sack rates (3.32%) in the NFL and the best players in their secondary (AJ Terrell) isn’t practicing. Adding up Atlanta’s motivation, the fact that the game is in a dome, and seeing how dynamic Justin Fields is right now– I think we’re going to see a ton of points in this game. I’d take the over-bet right now– the line is already moving up. |
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11-20-22 | Rams v. Saints OVER 38.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 120 h 5 m | Show | |
Saints -4 (-110), to win 1 unitRams/Saints over 39 (-105), to win 2 unitsI think the Rams' season is over. Cooper Kupp will be out for at least 4 weeks and this team is likely to give up-- there's a very fat chance they can come back and make the playoffs this season. They would need to win the rest of their games, maybe except one, and they have a really rough schedule remaining. The Saints are probably starting Jameis Winston, who should provide an instant spark, and the Rams should be without Matthew Stafford again. Even if they're not, who are the Rams going to throw to? This is a team in disarray and the Saints, who play better defense at home, should be able to limit LAR and put up some points. Since we expect Jameis, I think we can expect some turnovers, too. The total is too low for a game with such high variance-possibilities. Love the over.
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11-19-22 | USC v. UCLA OVER 76 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show | |
UCLA allows opposing QBs to throw 67% this season and that was against competition like Arizona State, Utah (run first team), Oregon, Arizona, and South Alabama. USC's Caleb Williams averages 60% completion % against top 25 teams and throws for over 3 TDs a game. The dude is a true Heisman contender and he leads one of the most prolific offenses in the country. Meanwhile, USC allows 4.5 yards per rush, barely a top 100 team in run defense, while UCLA's 6.3 yards per carry is 1st in the nation. And they run for 240 yards per game, top 10 in that category. USC has allowed teams like Stanford, CAL and AZ to put up points on 'em, and I don't see any way that UCLA can hold down the USC attack. OVER! |
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11-18-22 | Suns v. Jazz OVER 226.5 | 133-134 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
The Suns are moving at a fast pace and even though their defense is elite, the Jazz are a juggernaut at home in all but their last game (the one we bet on) against the Knicks. Now that they're settled, I expect their facilitative offense to get back to it's true form and set the pace from the jump, Suns chasing or perhaps out-pacing the Jazz, whatever, I think this goes over. I have it at 235.Â
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11-17-22 | Nets v. Blazers UNDER 220.5 | 109-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
The Nets will be extremely happy to face Portland just because of their pace. The Kings went up and down the floor and blitzed Brooklyn at every turn with their explosive offense. Portland may win but they don't play that way. Portland is 29th and the Nets are 28th overall in pace over the last 2 weeks. The Blazers' defense has been elite all season and the Nets were #1 in defensive efficiency in November before they faced the Kings. This checks out as a game where the Nets' defense will look to get-right and the Blazers, in their second game at home, will look more like their stingy selves. Love the under.Â
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 42 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 34 m | Show | |
It's going to be COLD in Green Bay Thursday night. That won't intimidate the Titans or their defensive line, but I like that setup for an under. I also love that Green Bay will finally be riding some momentum heading into this contest. The Packers can only afford to lose one or two more games if they want to make the playoffs, and more than one loss will really be pushing it. They also get to stay at home and ride this wave of chemistry right into TNF. Christian Watson's breakout game has been well-documented by now but it's a huge positive for Aaron Rodgers, who's been dying to find a receiver he can rely on. Aaron Jones has been sensational and you can run on the Titans, but I trust both defenses to limit each offense throughout the game. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers take it late, heading into extended rest before a huge game against Philadelphia.Â
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11-16-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | 110-124 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
A lot to like about this over. Chicago's defense has regressed tremendously, they're a bottom 5 unit the last 5 games, and they allowed this very same Pelicans team to score 115 points against them a few nights ago EVEN THO the Pels only hit 16% from beyond the arc. That's wild. The Bulls have also increased their pace and without Zion, the Pelicans were crazy explosive and high-tempo last night against Memphis. If Zion plays fine, even more scoring opportunities and the Bulls can't stop the big boy. Love the over.
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11-16-22 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 233 | 126-101 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
This checks out as a game that'll have a playoff-like feel. Both teams are top 10 in defensive efficiency over their last 5 games and both teams are playing some damn good basketball. I also like how they match up with each other defensively, length against length and physical players on both rosters. No team shoots and makes more 3 pointers than the Boston Celtics but the Hawks are 2nd in the NBA at defending the 3, allowing only 32% from beyond the arc. The Hawks much prefer to shoot from the mid-range or in closer proximity to the basket-- they're a 2-point shooting team that wants to go to the foul line-- and Boston is easily one of the best paint defenses in the NBA. It's strength vs. strength and both teams are humming so this should be very contentious. Give me the under.Â
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11-15-22 | Knicks v. Jazz OVER 229 | 118-111 | Push | 0 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Knicks/Jazz over 229.5 (-110), to win 1 unitJazz 1H -2 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsJazz -4 (-115), to win 1 unitHere I go with another damn over but I'm sorry, it just makes too much sense. Offensively the Jazz match up very well with the Knicks, who are allowing more points and more rebounds than 28 other teams. These are two top 5 teams in pace over the last 5 games and I don't see that changing tonight. The Jazz have also been very good at home and they're showing way more chemistry than the Knicks, who are beginning to look clumsy and they can seemingly only beat bad teams. The Jazz have been a juggernaut at home, beating teams by an average margin of 13.8 ppg. In the first halves of those games, they out-scored their opponent by an average margin of 12.4 ppg. That's pretty astounding, and I'm going to trust that both continue.Â
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11-14-22 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 232.5 | 95-132 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Golden State games just feel very predictable (jinx alert) from a totals perspective right now. They're running at a fast pace, and even faster at home, and their defense still hasn't caught up yet. The Spurs facilitate the ball really well and run at a tempo equivalent to the Warriors' average this season (102+ possessions per game) when they're on the road. San Antonio is also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA right now, shooting around 38%. This feels like a fast-paced, fun game between two good perimeter shooting teams in a game where the Warriors should win and should keep the pace high.Â
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11-14-22 | Hornets v. Magic OVER 223.5 | 112-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
LaMelo Ball returned against the Heat and made an immediate impact, but Miami was just too much. An 8-game losing streak isn't something to bat an eye at but LaMelo's return is a significant uptick in team-chemistry for a Hornets team that had little rhythm to speak of. The ball movement and explosiveness of their offense improved as soon as he got on the floor, although as usual he took way too many threes and only made one (1/9, to be exact). Charlotte as a whole took way too many 3s and only shot 29% overall, that should change tonight. I think the Hornets finally get a W. The Magic are playing better as a team, posting a top-10 offensive rating in their last three contests. Like the over, too.
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11-13-22 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 229.5 | 126-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
The Nuggets' totals are averaging 233 ppg in their last 6. The Bulls are off extended rest. Chicago's defense is terribly inconsistent and Denver's defense is starting to regress, again, as they usually do every season. Both are playing at a fast pace and playing with more chemistry and offensive efficiency. Sign me up for an over.Â
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11-13-22 | Cowboys v. Packers UNDER 43 | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 51 m | Show | |
Since I have no way to give you these derivative bets on this site, I'll add them in this write up. This is FOUR DIFFERENT BETS for premium customers. Raiders 1Q -0.5 (-115), to win 1 unitRaiders 1H -3.5 (-105), to win 1.5 unitsThe Colts are the lowest scoring team in the 1H of games, they have no explosion on offense to speak of whatsoever, and a Vegas front 4 that can get to the QB gives an early and sweet advantage to the Raiders, who average 13.4 ppg in the 1H. I also think Vegas will be particularly motivated coming off such a poor second half against Jacksonville, ready to pounce on both sides of the ball Sunday. Cowboys/Packers 1Q under 7.5 (-115), to win 1.5 unitsCowboys/Packers under 43 (-110), to win 1.5 unitsGreen Bay is going to be cold and both of these defenses are playing well. That includes the Packers' defense. The last two weeks, the Packers' defense has not been the problem. They limited Buffalo at Orchard Park and a Lions' offense that can score only put up 15 points. The Cowboys' defense should feast early and often and get pressure on Aaron Rodgers; the Packers' offensive line is still banged up and hasn't offered the same protection this year. And the Cowboys' offense hasn't been explosive, at all. |
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11-13-22 | Lions v. Bears OVER 46.5 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 165 h 30 m | Show | |
The Lions win was smoke and mirrors and Campbell can't sustain wins. The Detroit defense will NOT be able to contain Justin Fields at Soldier Field. Naturally they're grabbing the over, too. The books are NOT adjusting to the Bears in over games and even though the wind could be blasting in Chicago, Fields and a formidable run game on both sides should move the ball.Â
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 38.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 146 h 11 m | Show | |
The Giants have only been favorites in five games the last three seasons. In those five games, they’re 1-4 against the spread (ATS). This is a big line to cover for a Giants team that should be able to find some success against Houston on the ground, but the same can be said about the Texans. Both defenses are among the worst against the run this season, allowing 5.5 yards per carry to their opponents. The Texans are more competitive in their pass defense and I think they can hang in this game. In six wins, the Giants average margin of victory is only 4.5 ppg, and they only beat Jacksonville and Chicago by more than 5 points. I’ll bet on Houston and the over. |
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11-13-22 | Broncos v. Titans UNDER 39 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 145 h 23 m | Show | |
Off a bye, the Broncos will attempt to ride some momentum after some clutch drives from Russell Wilson in the final moments of their Week 8 game in London. This line is exactly where I have it at Titans -3, but I think the total is still too high. The Broncos rank as one of the most complete defenses in the NFL, and the Titans’ well-coached, chippy defense should greatly limit a Broncos’ offense that’s among the least productive in the NFL. I set this total at 36.5 and I’d only expect it to drop from the current number. I’m betting on it now. |
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11-12-22 | Raptors v. Pacers OVER 229.5 | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Welp, here we go with another 2 unit totals play. These are the teams the Raptors dominate offensively. They're too big, too long, and they can still run the floor with a team like Indiana. We saw it in big wins against the Hawks, Rockets, and Spurs, and the Pacers fit the same profile. Thing is, Indiana is off 3 days of rest, at home, and they love to run with pace. This line is weird or else I'd normally take Toronto, but it looks like they might be sitting a few key figures. Doesn't matter. The players are all built with the same mentality and Toronto as a roster has size advantages all over.Â
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11-12-22 | Celtics v. Pistons UNDER 226 | 117-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a regression play. Neither team shot very well in their last contest but they both played with pace and could evidently care less about any sort of defense. I don't think that happens in this spot. Typically the second meeting looks a lot different and even better, Detroit's number 1 scorer Cade Cunningham isn't 100%. This total should drop significantly at some point in the contest. I'd take it down to 222.Â
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11-12-22 | Nets v. Clippers OVER 212.5 | 110-95 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
I have this total at 218 and I'd take it up to 215. I realize the Nets have been playing better defense and that the Clippers can absolutely clamp down and limit good offenses, but both teams are coming off enough rest and I like how explosive and efficient the Nets' offense has been. You could say the same about the Clippers. LAC has averaged 113.75 pts in their last four wins and they're 11th in offensive efficiency over their last 5 games. The Nets are 10th. The Clippers are playing faster, too, which could affect and stimulate the scoring. One of these quarters or halves will probably be pretty low scoring, but I think it ultimately gets close to 220 with some great shot-making from Durant and Paul George.Â
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11-11-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies OVER 234 | 103-114 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
Much unlike the above game, this game opened at a huge number and I'm guessing it only goes up. We saw these two teams create some explosive offense against each other in the playoffs last year and I think this spot may be even more ideal for production. The Grizzlies tend to go at the tempo of who they face, which is a good thing for the over since Minnesota is top 5 in that regard. Memphis also tends to run faster at home and the matchup (small and quick Memphis vs. long and explosive Minnesota) is a perfect storm for points. I'd take this up to 236.5 for two units.Â
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11-11-22 | Nuggets v. Celtics UNDER 231.5 | 112-131 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
This checks out as a slow-moving game. The Nuggets are moving a little faster down the court but in general, this is an offense run by Jokic at the top of the key. The Celtics are very adept at playing against that sort of offense as they can lock down in the half court and settle in. The length of Denver could also disrupt the comfort of Boston's shooters. Slower tempos, contrasting styles that create advantage for both defenses from where I'm sitting. I would take this as low as 228.
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 42.5 | 15-25 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
We know what happened in the last game and even though we'd typically anticipate regression in these cases, we're not here. The Panthers found success behind PJ Walker in the last game and the Falcons are still without AJ Terrell. That's not good for their ability to stop PJ and DJ Moore and their more talented players. The Falcons are nearly unstoppable every single week on offense and clearly you can run on the Panthers. Give me the over.
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11-10-22 | Mavs v. Wizards OVER 208 | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Normally this is a slow game between two good defenses but this isn't the spot. The Mavs had a HORRIBLE shooting night against the Magic Wednesday and their defense will be tired heading into this. Meanwhile the Wizards aren't as defensively efficient as they were to start the season. Luka and a Dallas team in get-right-mode should push the points and the pace. I like this to go uncharacteristically over. |
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11-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 233.5 | 124-122 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
This is simple math. The Grizzlies run faster on the road + the Spurs are a top 5 tempo team + they're at home and should catalyze the pace even more + neither team has shown interest in defense (both are bottom quadrant in overall efficiency) + both are full of small, explosive offensive players. I like the over, and I would take it up to 238.
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11-09-22 | Nuggets v. Pacers OVER 234 | Top | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
Lots to like about points being scored in this contest. The Pacers are literally playing with pace, at one of the fastest tempos in the NBA over their last few games. They've also been really good in offensive rebounding and offensive efficiency. Same could be said for Denver. The Nuggets tend to follow the other team's rhythm, particularly on the road, and I'm not sure either team will be interested in playing defense. The Pacers are 27th overall in DEF EFF over their last 7 games so, the evidence is there. OVER!Â
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11-07-22 | Kings v. Warriors OVER 230 | 113-116 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
The first game between these two resulted in 255 points. Normally I'd anticipate some regression or at least consider it, but this is a chance for the Warriors to put up a classic offensive show at home against a team that doesn't like to play defense anyway. And I love the offensive efficiency and pace I've seen from SAC. Another over!Â
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11-07-22 | Knicks v. Wolves OVER 229.5 | 120-107 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
Rudy Gobert should be out of this contest and that's a big deal for this angle. Rudy only slows down Minnesota but without one of their bigs and already the 4th fastest team in the NFL, I think they'll be off to the races quick Monday night. The Knicks tend to go by the pace of the other team but they're still moving fast overall (12th on the road) and they're a solid offensive team so far. Jalen Brunson only catalyzes this entire narrative. Â
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints OVER 46 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
The Ravens and the Saints match up well on the offensive side of the ball. Historically the over-aggressive tendencies of the Saints' defense can lead to real problems against a scrambling QB like Lamar, who will be without dependable Mark Andrews tonight and will probably look to use his rushing ability more often. The Saints are opting to keep Andy Dalton in the lineup, which we think is ultimately a mistake. Dalton has played well but this is a hungry Ravens' defense that now has a true leader in Roquan Smith. The Saints should be able to run the ball well and score some points, probably near or in the lower 20s, but Lamar and a more efficient run game for Baltimore will be the difference. I also think Baltimore gets a turnover or two that changes the tide of this game and pushes some late points. |
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11-07-22 | Wizards v. Hornets UNDER 220.5 | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
Again these Hornets totals are too high and I don't see that changing against the slow moving, defense-oriented Washington Wizards. Bradley Beal just entered COVID protocol 2 days ago so IÂ doubt he'll be back. And even with Terry Rozier, who played 36 min against the Nets, the Hornets only found 94 points. This is a team searching for an identity and lost on offense without their stars. The Wizards will only make that harder. We'll look to see where team totals are tomorrow but we'll probably play on that, too.Â
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11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 46.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 168 h 22 m | Show | |
To put it simply, I think the Chiefs are going to score at will on the Titans, their defense isn't very good despite playing well against a really bad Texans' offense, and the Chiefs are off a bye which means an extra week to craft another win. The Titans will get some rush yards and Derrick Henry production and they always find ways to stay in games. This total is WAY too low. |
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11-06-22 | Vikings v. Commanders OVER 43.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 8 m | Show | |
The burgeoning offense shall continue in the NFL this coming Sunday, IMO, and I love this game to go over, too. Kirk Cousin and their offense can obviously move the ball and the Commanders have been considerably more effective with Heinicke behind center. Oh yea, and the Vikings' defense still isn't good. Sorry, purple. |
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11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears OVER 45 | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 142 h 7 m | Show | |
The Bears might just become an over team. After allowing Robert Quinn and now Roquan Smith to play for other teams, the Bears' defense just came even less formidable. Justin Fields is coming into his own and that offense can score on teams, while the Dolphins are again looking like the offense that was humming at the start of the season. This should be an easy over, love it.Â
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11-06-22 | Colts v. Patriots UNDER 40 | 3-26 | Win | 100 | 90 h 23 m | Show | |
Yea I just don't see an avenue for points here. Both teams have top 10 defenses and both allow right around 19-20 ppg, and both have vulnerable QBs in this contest. Both defenses have the ability to slow down the opposing QB; and one is a rookie, and one is looking awfully shitty lately (Mac). Run game-centric and hard fought, this is a 17-13 type game.
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11-05-22 | Kings v. Magic OVER 225 | 126-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
The Magic typically play at the pace of their opponent and that means they'll be running up and down the floor chasing after a fast-paced Kings' squad. The Magic also play at a faster pace at home (10th overall), and the Kings, for whatever reason, play exceptionally faster on the road (3rd overall). Sacramento is considerably more talented than Orlando offensively. Like the matchup, like the pace. I have this at 233.Â
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11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 41 | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 76 h 28 m | Show | |
It's an Iowa game and there's gonna be upwards of 32 mph winds in this contest. Yea, that's worth a 2 unit under play for this guy. |
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11-05-22 | Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 50.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 76 h 24 m | Show | |
It's an Iowa game and there's gonna be upwards of 32 mph winds in this contest. Yea, that's worth a 2 unit under play for this guy. |
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11-05-22 | Ohio State v. Northwestern UNDER 60.5 | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 76 h 17 m | Show | |
We've seen the Buckeyes play down to their competition and we think this will be the quintessential example. It's a sleepy, sleeeepy spot after a big win at Happy Valley and Northwestern is always a tough competitor. There will also be a 90+% chance of rain and over 20 mph winds blowing in. Under and the dog.
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11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 55 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 63 h 5 m | Show | |
Both of these teams have better defenses than given credit for. They also have subpar offenses and this game will see 18 mph winds.Â
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11-04-22 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 227.5 | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
The Bucks are the #1 team in defensive efficiency so far this season. When the T-Wolves play at home, they're a better defensive team. It'll be strength against strength under the rim, as the length and size of Milwaukee rivals the big boys of Minnesota. Minnesota's pace may create some high scoring at some point, but I think the Bucks can slow it down and make it a tough game. The Timberwolves also just got humbled by the Suns, who are proving to still be a titan in the West, and they'll look to stifle the Bucks' offense. The Bucks are relying on their defense to win and they're a proud 7-0. Like a very competitive game and an under in this one. |
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11-04-22 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 223.5 | 128-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
The Nets are still in disarray among all the chaos and they don't have a coach just yet. Kyrie is out, a major factor in their total offensive production. The Wizards are at home after a big win with plenty of rest, and they're a bend-don't-break defense that limits teams to 40 pts in the paint, under 50 rebounds per game, and 111 ppg (11th). I like this to be a slow moving, awkward game for Durant in DC. In Kevin's home city, he'll put too much on his shoulders and ISO ball will slow down the game, too.Â
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11-02-22 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 228.5 | 112-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
The Hawks and Knicks are among the highest scoring teams in the 1st half. They're also both in the top half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency. I also think Trae Young vs. Jalen Brunson is a battle where both players can win offensively on a regular basis. I like this even more since both teams are overdue for positive regression on offense; each are coming off losses where they scored way under their average. Overs!Â
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11-01-22 | Warriors v. Heat UNDER 227.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
The Heat's pace drops even lower at home and it's the same with Golden State on the road-- they succumb to the other team's tempo. The Heat are allowing teams to score too many points too often and after facing one fast-paced team after another, they'll be looking to bring the clamps on defense and slow the Warriors' pace in a revenge game. Miami hasn't been great in areas where they're usually sterling; things like defensive rebounds, defense in the paint, and creating turnovers. The Warriors players commented on how successfully they played defense in their matchup against Miami last Thursday and they'll be comfortable again here today. If the Heat make the improvements we expect, we love the under.
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 46.5 | 13-32 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 25 m | Show | |
I just don't believe in the Browns right now-- they're mistake prone and the coaching has been wacky. The Bengals are in-rhythm and I don't think Cleveland has a chance at stopping Joe Burrow when he's in a flow-state. Cincinnati's offensive line is really coming together, too, and the Browns can't buy a sack. All Bengals!  Â
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10-31-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 237.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Although the Nets are certainly due for some positive regression of offense, it doesn't mean they will blow the doors off the Pacers in this matchup. Something's off in Brooklyn but it starts with their defense. Simmons needs to settle in and he's an excellent defender when he does, and hopefully in a rematch there's no way they let Haliburton and company completely dominate them again. The Nets played piss-poor, awful defense in that game and shouldn't call themselves a pro basketball team after it. I think variance hits Indiana and the Nets get some good feels in this one, and starting with their defense.Â
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10-31-22 | Kings v. Hornets OVER 232.5 | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
There's a chance this line moves against us, what else is new, but it won't make me like it any less. The last two games for the Hornets are a bit of an aberration-- the Hornets played down to the Magic and shot VERY poorly, and then the Golden State Warriors tried to assert better defense on them in what was ultimately an OT loss. The Hornets have now shot poorly in two straight contests and they're officially way overdue for a big scoring game. The Kings are exclusively in high scoring games and don't play much defense. I like how these two teams match up, too, with bigger athletes on the Kings but more physical athletes for Charlotte. Offense wins and points win-- we get an over.Â
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10-30-22 | Cardinals v. Vikings OVER 49 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 146 h 18 m | Show | |
Two defenses with a ton of holes and I like the momentum the Cardinals gained on TNF. Even off a bye at home, I don't expect the Vikings to look that impressive. They were grossly outgained by the Dolphins in their last win and I think Kyler can throw and run all over their porous defense. Value on AZ and I'll take the over, too. |
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10-30-22 | Raiders v. Saints OVER 49 | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 12 m | Show | |
The Raiders are coming into their own on offense and a lot of that is because of Josh Jacobs, who's running exceptionally well the last few weeks. It's opening up Devante Adams and a crisper pass game. The Saints can't get consistent pressure, either, so this is one of those spots where the Raiders' offense can take off. The Saints can still put up points, even with confusion at QB, and they're back home in a great spot to go off.Â
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10-30-22 | Bears v. Cowboys UNDER 42.5 | 29-49 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 11 m | Show | |
I think the Bears figured something out the last few weeks. Yes, we know that Dallas' defense is superb but I think Justin Fields is a pretty darn good QB. He's running really well, he's tough as nails, and he's been making much better decisions with his arm. The Cowboys' offense is underwhelming, even with Dak, and the Bears' defense is improving every week behind mastermind Matt Eberflus. The under and the dog!Â
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10-29-22 | Warriors v. Hornets OVER 232.5 | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a game the Warriors should win and they need to start stacking up Ws in spots where it's feasible, especially since they're deciding to play a lot of their young bucks. The Hornets won't want to play defense tonight after a tough loss last night and the Warriors haven't played much consistent defense yet this season. Both teams run at a top 10 pace-- love the over.Â
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10-28-22 | Lakers v. Wolves UNDER 228 | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Despite LAL's woes they're still playing pretty good defense and their twin towers should be somewhat limited with Lebron and AD on the court. Â
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10-27-22 | Grizzlies v. Kings OVER 236 | 125-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
The only thing that makes this result in an under is pure human variance, and that's why data-dorks won't ever win consistently long term in NBA betting. Predicting the human element is what we do best and it's what models and other data points can't account for. Rant over. Anyway, neither of these teams are playing any defense thus far, Memphis is actually last place in DEF EFF, and a lot of that is because Jaren Jackson Jr. will be OUT until Nov/Dec. He was a force in the paint and Memphis will miss him, but that only opens things for a Kings' squad that's already running at the 4th fastest pace in the association. Oh yea, and they're also bottom third in DEF EFF. This sets up as another game where neither team will care to play defense-- Memphis is too physical for the Kings and this isn't an important spot for the Grizz. We'll take the over for a light 1 unit. |
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10-26-22 | Heat v. Blazers UNDER 222 | 119-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
The Blazers have a kushy schedule to start the season and somehow they're finally playing some defense. Top 10 in DEF EFF and exceptional at limiting second-chance opportunities to their opponents, Portland has started off looking disciplined and stingy on the defensive side of the ball. Josh Hart and Jerami Grant have certainly helped in that regard, too. The Heat are typically good in these tough road spots and they lean on stellar defensive effort to get it done. I have this total ar 217-- gotta take an under.
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10-26-22 | Hornets v. Knicks OVER 226.5 | 131-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
I don't see this total out yet anywhere but when it does come out, take it if it's anything at 232 or less. I have this total set at 240. The Knicks are running faster; Thibs made it clear that's what they want to do and an aggressive Jalen Brunson only helps. The Hornets run even faster historically on the road and they'll try to out-pace a more physical Knicks' team. One hand feeds the other-- love points here. This is why a flat-unit model doesn't work; as handicappers we need to know when to pull the trigger on a bigger play. My disparity is too significant to not play big on this wager. It's early so we won't go 3 units or more, but 2.5 units feels right.Â
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10-24-22 | Nets v. Grizzlies OVER 228.5 | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
The Grizz and Nets don't look interested in playing much defense so far; both are bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. Memphis is allowing a staggering 123.7 ppg alone. The Nets are more finesse while the Grizzlies are more aggressive and downhill. I like both offenses to have an advantage on offense. I have this total at 234, so I'm taking an over.
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10-23-22 | Seahawks v. Chargers OVER 51 | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 93 h 7 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Chargers over 51 (-110), to win 1 unit Pulling the trigger on this game. My buddy, former NFL safety Tank Williams (humble brag), hit the nail on the head in our video today. This game will likely look a lot like the Browns and Chargers game, which ended at 58 points. The Chargers are protecting Herbert really well, Keenan Allen is slated to come back, and the LAC defense has been very suspect. JC Jackson in particular, who's been a different, poorer version of himself since he came to LA. Geno Smith and a confident Seahawks' offense know they'll have to put up some points and I trust them to do so-- through 6 games, I doubt we'll see crazy regression against a Chargers' defense that's been awfully porous. Over-- I have this at 54. |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 39 | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 101 h 37 m | Show | |
Jets/Broncos under 39.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units I really like this under. The Jets have only allowed 15.6 ppg and 290 ypg the last 3 weeks, and I love the tenacity they're playing with. The Broncos are only scoring 15.1 ppg this season and now Russell Wilson is banged up again, hamstring, and we think Denver will probably force him to play. It'll be either a less than 100% Russ or Brett Rypien, so I don't feel great about their chances against the Jets' defense right now. Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams are playing spectacularly. The Broncos also bring it and will need to rely on their defense against a Jets' defense that doesn't like to pass the ball. Both teams will try and keep on the ground and they should-- the winds are predicted to be blowing around 17 mph. Love this under, I have it ending around 17-13. |
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10-22-22 | Rockets v. Bucks OVER 230.5 | 105-125 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a rough travel spot for Houston and Milwaukee will probably smash them but I like the over a little more here. The Rockets can score and they like to go fast. Milwaukee historically runs faster at home and it's a great opportunity for their offense to get in-rhythm, a scrimmage if you will, with little pressure. Neither team will want to play much defense. Take the over.
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon UNDER 71.5 | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 11 m | Show | |
Two physical defenses coming off a bye and this is a huge Pac-12 game. Like the under, this total is a little too high.Â
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10-21-22 | Pelicans v. Hornets OVER 231.5 | 124-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
The Hornets and Pelicans were both top 3 in offensive efficiency and while I don't expect much from the Nets' defense, so that was hardly surprising for New Orleans, that's a good sign for the Hornets. Even in a down year I'd expect the Spurs to be feisty in game one-- didn't happen. Charlotte has had more time without LaMelo Ball and scary Terry can run the offense well. They run at a fast pace and that was even more true at home last year. The Pelicans' look like they could be a juggernaut this season and while I lean their way tomorrow night, I can't take them at -6. That's too much and too soon. I'll go with the over.
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10-20-22 | Clippers v. Lakers UNDER 223.5 | 103-97 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
Clippers/Lakers under 223.5 (-105), to win 1 unit Even with a CLEAR size advantage, the Lakers couldn't muster any significant offense last night against Golden State. 38 garbage-time fourth quarter points helped them eclipse the century mark, but they probably shouldn't have. Westbrook (LOL) and LeBron were efficient from the floor, but the rest of this clumsy LAL mix only shot 35% on Tuesday night. That should only get worse against Ty Lue's LA Clippers. Last year they were one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and a top 10 defense for most of the year. And now Kawhi is back. The Claw and his supporting cast should be able to limit the lake-show throughout this game and in the battle of L.A., it's usually pretty contentious. Give me the under. |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals OVER 45 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 155 h 45 m | Show | |
I think Herbstreit is right-- we'll finally get a high-scoring, nice watch on TNF in Week 7. If Marshon Lattimore doesn't play in Week 6, and it looks like he won't, it's unlikely that he'll turn around 4 days later and play in AZ. The Cardinals might get shocked in Seattle so this is a good spot for their offense to open up, and I don't think Arizona's defense stacks up well against a power-running game in New Orleans. Points!
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10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 216 | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Two top Eastern Conference opponents faceoff in Week 1 and I think Boston is set for some regression after they lost Ime Udoka for the season - Ime brought an intensity and defensive-minded approach to Boston that hardened them and prepared them for more success last year. They'll miss his gritty style, and the 76ers are still super talented and poised to prove something out the gate. We saw high totals last year in the openers and I expect the same here; defenses need a little time to adjust. This line should not be at 2, it's moved too much to accommodate Philly, and we strongly think that's the wrong movement. Boston was in the Finals for a reason, they're revamped, and even without their coach it's the first game at home and it's a revenge season. Boston takes care of business.Â
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 53.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 39 m | Show | |
Don't overthink this: It's Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes. Â
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 47 | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 52 m | Show | |
Seahawks overs! Kyler and Geno will have plenty of time to make big plays - I have this at 55. |
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10-16-22 | Patriots v. Browns UNDER 42.5 | 38-15 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 3 m | Show | |
Both teams favor the run game and NE is playing incredible defense right now. The Patriots also don't have the passing attack to expose the Browns' porous secondary. There could be rain and sloppy conditions in this one, too. Under! |
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10-16-22 | Bucs v. Steelers OVER 44 | 18-20 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 38 m | Show | |
The more I look at this game, the more I like the over. This is a perfect spot for offensive regression for both teams. Brady and his offense haven't been able to score enough points to really impress or blow teams away. This might be that spot against a Steelers' defensive line that can't get pressure without TJ Watt and lately can't cover the deep ball to save their lives. The Steelers O-line is an issue but clearly Tomlin isn't afraid to let Pickett air it out and take risks downfield. We like that against a TB unit that's elite but might be facing more adversity than they think at Pittsburgh in Pickett's first start. The Steelers were EMBARRASSED against the Bills and this sets up for a better performance from them. Offenses shine a little more here-- I have it at 48.Â
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10-15-22 | Alabama v. Tennessee UNDER 65.5 | 49-52 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 42 m | Show | |
We haven't seen a complete game from Alabama's defense yet but this feels like a good spot. All seems fair until the Crimson Tide come to town and suddenly their athletes are bigger, faster, more explosive than yours. I'll take the Volunteers early because they're at home behind a raucous crowd and that'll pay dividends early. But big plays and defensive stops down the stretch in favor of Bama will be the difference, IMO. Â
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 151 h 36 m | Show | |
Maybe this line comes down but it probably won't. The Chiefs are back at home after a HUGE revenge win against the Bucs on SNF -- we called that one. Mahomes and their offense is back in rhythm and the Raiders, although they got their first W on Sunday, are in a really tough spot traveling up to KC against a Chiefs team that just dropped 41 on one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs dropped 48 and 41 on the Raiders last season, too, and I don't think Andy Reid will take his foot off the gas pedal - I bet they STILL use their 2020 loss to the Raiders at home as fuel for the fire. Lots of points, and KC covers. |
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10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers UNDER 39.5 | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 28 m | Show | |
Low for a reason! If we even see a semblance of the 49ers defense we saw Monday night against the Rams, HOW is Baker Mayfield and the terribly ungifted Panthers' offensive line going to protect Baker against the 49ers' pressure? I just don't see it. Carolina's defense plays hard and maybe keeps them in the game early, but that probably won't last. We're only hesitant to bet on the Niners at -6.5 because of how conservative Shanahan coaches in these non-divisional spots at times. Like the under. |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 40.5 | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 162 h 21 m | Show | |
10-09-22 | Giants v. Packers UNDER 41.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 0 m | Show | |
Shouldn't have missed this before: Giants/Packers under 41, to win 2.5 unitsThis will probably end up being one of my favorite plays this weekend -- considering putting more than 2.5 units on it. The Giants threw a total of 16 passes last weekend -- 13 from the arm of Daniel Jones and another 3 from Tyrod. The Giants are really suffering on the WR end and it showed Sunday; their receivers only caught 3 balls for 25 yards against Chicago. Not good. The Giants may not be able to move the ball at all against Green Bay but their defense has been playing very well. Combine that with the mediocre output the Packers' have shown and their lack of talent at WR and we have a lot of running and very little scoring in this contest. Looks like it'll be rainy/sloppy across the pond again, too. UNDER.
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 55 h 40 m | Show | |
Firstly, how are these two teams going to score points? We've seen how elite Denver's defense can be at home, and the Colts' defense hasn't been the reason for their losses. It's Matt Ryan and a VERY shaky offense, and we don't like that heading into Thursday, not for the Colts and not for the over. Randy Gregory OUT for Denver stinks, but there's a chance that Jonathon Taylor won't suit up Thursday after suffering an ankle injury Sunday. On a short week, that's often the case. I wouldn't be worried about Denver allowing too many rushing yards after they really shit the bed against Vegas -- they should button up better at home. And I really like this teaser. This is a game Denver wins, in my opinion, especially with how they can wreak havoc on Matt Ryan and the Colts' piss poor offensive line. This game should be close and low-scoring, and a bet on Denver within a FG and under 50 feels like great probabilities are on our side. |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts OVER 42.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 48 m | Show | |
The Titans are historically a problem for the Colts and I'm not sure that'll change this season, so we lean the Titans here. Just not a strong enough play to take it right now, but the last time the Titans lost to the Colts at Indianapolis: 2018. Sure, Tannehill has less to work with in the passing game, but Robert Woods came alive in Week 3 and Tannehill found 7 different receivers for an efficient game against the Raiders and their formidable pass rush. Shaq Leonard could return in this game, but reports tell me that Frank Reich and the Colts' coaching staff isn't too eager to throw him to the wolves just yet, claiming he's not moving the same and doesn't look ready at this juncture. So even if he does play, he could prove to be more of a liability than anything else. That's a good thing for the Titans' offense. On the other side of the ball, the Colts should also see some success on offense this Sunday. It's likely that Titans' D-linemen Bud Dupree and Ola Adeniyi, their two most formidable pass rushers besides Jeffrey Simmons, also won't be in this contest. Matt Ryan can thrive when he's given some time -- we saw him finally make some plays against the Chiefs - at home in a dome, I think we see more of the same against the Titans. Taylor is overdue for a breakout game, too, and the Titans have allowed an NFL worst 5.8 rushing yards per carry to their opponent. Derrick Henry finally got warmed up last week, too, and looks back in form. A lot of evidence to love the over here!
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10-02-22 | Bills v. Ravens UNDER 51.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 64 h 10 m | Show | |
This line has moved down a notch and now it's time to pull the trigger before it moves down toooo much. Meteorologists aren't always right but they're sharper with Hurricanes. The outer bands of Ian will be hovering over M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday and there's officially a 70% chance of rain with 15 mph winds to boot. Offenses like the Ravens and Bills can still thrive but this game should have a playoff feel and if both teams opt to run more than pass, which they should, that means a lot of burning clock. Like the under here. |
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