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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +1 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 247 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oakland Raiders (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) When I released this pick, Antonio Brown was still a part of the Oakland Raiders. Regardless of that, I in fact say “good riddance” here. AB is an awesome player and he would have made Oakland better, but he was more of a distraction and now that he’s gone, I think that Jon Gruden and company are in fact better off in the short-term. Oakland looked decent in the preseason and AB wasn’t a part of that whatsoever. The Broncos have Joe Flacco under center now and he directs a team which went 6-10 last year. Denver also has a new head coach in Vic Fangio. With AB gone, keep your eyes on WR Josh Jacobs, who was selected in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Two of Oakland’s three first-round picks were used on the defensive side of the ball as well and I believe the unit takes it to Flacco and company tonight. Play on the home side. T.M. Prediction: 24-21 Raiders. |
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09-08-19 | Lions v. Cardinals +2.5 | 27-27 | Win | 103 | 217 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Cardinals (8*) Analysis posted at least 8 hours before game time. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Cards. |
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09-08-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -120 | 217 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Giants (10*) This is a big game for both divisional opponents. New York isn’t expected to do much this year. Dallas is hoping to compete for a Super Bowl. The Cowboys just signed RB Ezekiel Elliot to a long-term deal and they have to be feeling good about the future. But Eli Manning and company won’t be going down without a fight. Especially in Week 1. This isn’t Week 14, as Manning is well rested and ready to lay everything on the line. I think the wily veteran still has a few tricks up his sleeve. Look for New York’s improved defense to play a role here as well. Outright victory? Probably not. But I do definitely expect this one to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 24-21 Cowboys. |
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09-08-19 | Bengals +10 v. Seahawks | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 217 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Bengals (8*) The Bengals aren’t expected to win the Super Bowl this year. This will once again be a transition, re-building year for Cincinnati as it tries to figure out if Andy Dalton has anything left in the tank. Cincinnati has a decent run game, but it’s main offensive weapon in AJ Green has been sidelined with injury. The Seahawks were competitive last year and they should be even better this season. Seattle is always tough at home, but I think the Bengals will do just enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab as many points as you can. T.M. Prediction: 23-21 Hawks. |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +4 | 40-26 | Loss | -110 | 214 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars (8*) The Jags are missing their starting left tackle, but beyond that the team enters healthy. Jacksonville has a new QB in Nick Foles, whose ability is not to be questioned whatsoever. KC is also healthy, but defense remains a concern. Is there any team in the AFC that could suffer a bigger “letdown” than Kansas City? Patrick Mahomes had a break out season last year, but regression seems imminent for him as well in my opinion. Everything went right for Mahomes for the most part last year, but I think the hungry Jags throw a monkey-wrench in his plans early this season. That said, grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 28-27 Jags. |
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09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns -5 | 43-13 | Loss | -110 | 214 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Browns (8*) Cleveland put together a great campaign last year (for its low standards) and with the acquisition of receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in the off-season, big things are now expected from the Dog Pound in 2019/20. Cleveland is expected to have one of the better defenses in the league as well. Tennessee has a solid defense as well, but question marks continue on the offensive side with Marcus Mariota under center. Throw the ATS stats out the window obviously in Week 1. I don’t expect any upsets here. I think Cleveland’s defense will prove to be too much for Mariota and I look for Mayfield and company to do the rest. Lay the points with confidence. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Browns. |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +3 | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 214 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8*) The biggest surprise (in my opinion) in the AFC last year was the Chiefs. The biggest surprise in the NFC was clearly the Rams. Did you know that Carolina actually started off the 2018/19 season by going 6-2? Then Cam Newton, who was on pace for his best statistical year ever, got injured. Both teams come in healthy, but I think that Carolina and Newton are the correct call in Week 1. The pressure is on the Rams after making it all the way to the Super Bowl and I believe regression is imminent. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Panthers. |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +2.5 | 13-3 | Loss | -115 | 324 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Rams (10* GAME OF MONTH) I could write a an award winning article, breaking down each team and every single statistic, but I don’t think that’s necessary. If you’re wagering on this game, then the history of each side and how they got to this point is well known. And with a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think it’s pretty much a “coin flip.” I could easily post strong ATS stats to support either side, so those are pointless at this point in my professional opinion. I think LA’s improved defensive play from the Conference round carries over though and I think the Pats’ defense is a fraud. Look for Todd Gurley and Jared Goff to possibly share “co-MVP’s” here. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 LA. |
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01-20-19 | Rams +3.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 150 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Rams (10* PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR) Both teams come in at 14-3. With a chance to avenge a 45-35 Week 9 matchup, I look for the Rams to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door. LA comes to town off a 30-22 win over a dangerous Cowboys team in the divisional round. Todd Gurley had 115 yards and a TD, while CJ Anderson had 123 rushing yards and two TD’s. The Rams’ offense has to be respected both on the ground and in the air (note that the Cowboys gave up 273 rushing yards after finishing with the No. 5 rushing defense.) The Saints on the other hand looked pretty shaky in their win over the Eagles last weekend, one which saw them come back from a 14-point first quarter deficit. Drew Brees was sharp with 301 yards and two TD’s. I think the “revenge” factor is real. LA shot itself in the foot with turnovers in that one, but with a chance to redeem itself and to punch it’s ticket to the “big game,” I do indeed fancy the visitors to pull of the upset here (that said, grab the points!) T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Rams. |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys v. Rams -7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 127 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Rams (10* TRADE-MARK) The Rams stumbled a bit down the stretch, but their form throughout the rest of the season was more than enough to earn them a first round bye. With a week off to heal up and prepare, Rams’ RB Todd Gurley will be given the green light here. And that’s great news for Rams’ QB Jared Goff and the rest of the high-flying LA offense. Dallas improved dramatically on both sides of the ball as the season wore on, but after last week’s gruelling home win over the Seahawks, I believe that the Cowboys finally run out of gas here. The Cowboys were in risk of missing the playoffs in Week 10, but a few key trades, combined with an improved run game from Ezekiel Elliot, allowed Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott to recover after a rough start to the 2018/19 campaign. The Cowboys have been playing at an extremely high level for weeks now, but I have a hard time seeing them keeping pace with the Rams down the stretch. Note that Dallas is still just 3-4 ATS on the road this year, while LA is 2-0 ATS in its last two when playing with two weeks of rest. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-20 Rams. |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -108 | 146 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Ravens (10* MONEY-MAKER) I firmly believe that “home field” will prove to be the difference maker for dynamic rookie QB LaMar Jackson and the surging Ravens. The injury to Melvin Gordon III is serious for LA. He’s expected to suit up now in this one, but clearly his health has to be called into question. With the Ravens being able to focus more on Philip Rivers himself, I think the home side’s league leading defense is poised for a massive day. Jackson is the “X-Factor” on this selection, but I’ll point out as well that the Ravens are already 4-1 ATS this season following a home win. I’m banking on a blowout, so lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-14 Ravens. |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -105 | 129 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dallas Cowboys (10* GAME OF MONTH) Homefield advantage will prove crucial here in my estimation. The Hawks closed out their regular season with a harder than expected 27-24 hoe win over the Cardinals on Sunday, while Dallas rallied for an impressive 36-35 road win over New York last weekend. Note though that this is an “in season revenge game” for the Cowboys after they fell 24-13 in the Pacific Northwest back on September 23rd. Both teams feature dynamic play-making QB’s. The Hawks have Russell Wilson, who has benefited from the league’s No. 1 run game and a better than expected defense, while Dallas has Dak Prescott, who has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and who also has plenty of weapons and talent helping on both sides of the ball. I think the revenge factor though, combined with the home field advantage in this crucial early wildcard scenario will be the difference for Dallas. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Cowboys. |
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12-30-18 | Eagles v. Redskins +7 | 24-0 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 59 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Redskins (8* UNDERDOG SUPER ROCKER) The Eagles have defied the odds to this point and pushed their luck to the brink. But now Philadelphia must win this game and have Minnesota lose at home to the Bears to get a wild card invitation. Philadelphia has looked great with backup QB Nick Foles under center, but Washington won’t be going down without a fight despite losing 25-16 in Tennessee last weekend. The Redskins were hit by the injury bug early this year and they were never able to recover. But note that the Eagles are a terrible 1-3 ATS already this season off a home victory, while Washington is already 4-1 ATS this season as a home underdog. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 21-20 Eagles. |
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 78 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Chiefs (10* BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR) I think the Raiders simply go through the motions today after posting an emotional 27-14 home win over the Broncos on Monday Night Football. It was likely the team’s final game in Oakland and clearly the Raiders were riding a wave of emotion. The Chiefs on the other hand will be eager to get back into the winners circle after their 38-31 loss to the Hawks last week. The Raiders average 18.9 PPG and they allow 28.8. The Chiefs average 35.3 PPG and they allow 27.9. KC has in fact lost two straight and I think Patrick Mahomes and company will be risking life and limb tonight to try and reverse that slide before the Playoffs. Note as well that the Raiders are just 5-8 ATS this year as an underdog, while KC is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 43-10 Chiefs. |
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12-30-18 | Panthers v. Saints -8 | 33-14 | Loss | -104 | 75 h 36 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New Orleans Saints (8* MONEY-MAKER). Carolina lost 24-10 to Atlanta last week, while New Orleans posted a 31-28 home win over Pittsburgh. Last month the Saints posted a 12-9 road win in Carolina, but I’m expecting a much bigger beatdown this time around. The Panthers have lost seven straight and they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention. Carolina shutdown QB Cam Newton. The Saints have a bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but they won’t want to take the foot off the gas quite yet. While Drew Brees and many of the offensive starters will be sitting, the home side will still be out to finish up strong. I’m banking on this happening. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-14 Saints. |
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12-30-18 | Cowboys v. Giants -6 | Top | 36-35 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Giants (10* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR) Odell Beckham Jr. won’t be playing in this final Giants home game, but he wasn’t in the line-up either in last week’s 28-27 loss in Indianapolis. Eli Manning was competitive and he plays with revenge here as well after the Cowboys posted the 20-13 home win back in Week 2. But Dallas has already clinched its playoff spot and a win or a loss means nothing. And that means that Manning has one last chance to impress the New York faithful before perhaps calling it a career (or the team parts ways.) Dallas is expected to rest both QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliot and with nothing to play for whatsoever this week, I look for the visitors to simply “go through the motions.” Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 28-13 Giants. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -116 | 32 h 8 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Broncos (10* MONEY-MAKER) Denver head coach Vance Joseph is expected to be removed at the end of the season, but he’s gone on record in saying that he’ll be playing hard until the end. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has a few more weapons around him than Raiders’ QB Derek Carr. This is very likely the Raiders’ final game at Oakland Coliseum and the organization has already pulled retaliatory moves on the city, withdrawing its offer to pay $7.5 million in rent to the city to cover the 2019 home schedule. The Broncos feature the stronger defense and run game. If the QB’s are a “wash,” then these two factors are definitely working big time in favor of the visitors today. Additionally note that Denver is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an extremely close home loss of three points or less. In a war of bottom feeders, Denver fans win out this time. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Broncos. |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Seahawks | 31-38 | Loss | -102 | 99 h 23 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Chiefs (8* SHOWDOWN) Both teams comes in off losses, but I have a hard time seeing the Hawks keeping pace with the high-flying Chiefs down the stretch. KC lost 29-28 at home to the Chargers on Thursday, while Seattle fell 26-23 in OT at San Francisco. Kansas City has been “money in the bank” as well for bettors in this spot, going 5-1 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS in its last six off an upset loss as a favorite. Conversely the Hawks have struggled in this position for bettors by going 0-2 ATS in their last two as a home dog of three points or less and 1-3 ATS in their last four after a loss by three points or less. This one has blowout written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Chiefs. |
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12-23-18 | Falcons -3.5 v. Panthers | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 5 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Falcons (9* SUPER SHOCKER) No need to over think this one. The Panthers are still in playoff contention, but they’ve shut down starting QB Cam Newton this week due to injury. The Panthers have lost six straight and I think they’ve clearly thrown in the “white flag” to this point. The Falcons are out of playoff contention, but they still broke a five-game slide last week with a win over the Cardinals. Matt Ryan and company will now be looking to pad their stats and with a chance to put the final nail in the coffin for their hated division rival, I expect the veteran to get the job done. Note as well that Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a home win of ten points or more. T.M. Prediction: 27-18 Falcons. |
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12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts -9 | 27-28 | Loss | -105 | 92 h 4 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indianapolis Colts (8* SUPER ROUT) The Giants are mathematically eliminated from contention. The Colts hold the AFC Wildcard and they’ll be looking to build off a dominant 23-0 home win over the Cowboys. The Giants come in completely deflated after a 17-0 home loss to Tennessee. New York had a slim playoff chance last week, but it came out completely flat and with nothing at all to play for here in this non-conference match-up, I believe the visitors will simply “go through the motions.” The Colts are averaging 26.6 PPG and allowing only 21.4. Note as well that the Giants are a horrible 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lay the points with Indy keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. T.M. Prediction: 37-10 Colts. |
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12-23-18 | Texans +2.5 v. Eagles | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 92 h 4 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Houston Texans (8* TOP DOG) This is a big game for both teams. The Eagles are still inexplicably alive in the wild card race after last week’s 30-23 upset win over the Rams. The Texans posted a 29-23 win over the Jets last weekend and they remain two games ahead of the Colts for the division lead. Houston will be laying everything on the line today to maintain that lead as Indianapolis has a “cream puff” at home vs. the Giants. Houston has put up at least 29 points in three out of its last four games and it’s 5-2 SU on the road. The Eagles have been getting “fortunate,” but I like the better team to come out on top here. That said, grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-18 Houston. |
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12-22-18 | Redskins v. Titans -10 | Top | 16-25 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee Titans (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Titans come in red hot, having won three straight. Washington got back into the winners circle with a win over the hapless Jags in Week 15, but I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. Washington is still in the playoff hunt, but it’s down to its third-string QB and it suffered a big injury on the defensive side of the ball to CB Joshua Holsey, who suffered a torn ACL in the win over the Jags. Tennessee avoided a potential trap in last week’s 17-0 win over the Giants and I think it’ll take full advantage of friendly confines on the short week. Note as well that Washington is already 3-4 ATS this year after covering in its previous game, while Tennessee is 4-2 ATS at home and already 3-0 ATS vs. the NFC East this year. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-10 Titans. |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (10* MONEY-MAKER) Carolina opened the year by going 5-1, but it’s since fallen on hard times and it enters this one at 6-7. However the Panthers are log-jammed with two other teams with the same record and each is only a 1/2 game back for the second wild card spot. This is a big game for the Saints as well as they look to keep pace for top spot in the NFC and the coveted first round bye and home field advantage that comes with that position, but a loss today would not jeopardize a playoff berth. Carolina though HAS to win this game if it has any hopes to salvage its season. And for me, that’s pretty much what I’m basing this pick on. Also note that New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS in its last four on MNF, while Carolina is 3-1 ATS in the same position. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 28-21 Panthers. |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks -4 v. 49ers | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -108 | 93 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seahawks (9* TRADE-MARK) With a win today the Seahawks will punch their ticket to the NFC Wildcard spot. Seattle missed the playoffs last year, but improved defensive play and a deeper offensive unit has turned things around in a hurry, as the Hawks come in on the heels of a four-game win streak. San Fran bounced back with a very satisfying 20-14 win over the Broncos last weekend, but an imminent return to mediocrity appears imminent in my opinion. Last week the Hawks held the Vikes to just 276 total yards of offense and I have a hard time seeing the offensively challenged 49ers mustering much of an attack here either. Also note that San Fran is just 1-5 ATS in its last six in this series in front of the home town crowd. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Hawks. |
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12-16-18 | Titans +3 v. Giants | 17-0 | Win | 100 | 90 h 23 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee Titans (8* MONEY-MAKER) New York comes in off a convincing 40-16 win over division rival Washington, while Tennessee demolished the Jaguars last weekend. Titans’ RB Derrick Henry had 238 rushing yards and four TD’s. The Jags had held the high-scoring Colts scoreless the week before, so it was an impressive performance from Mariota and company obviously. I’ll caution in reading too much into the Giants win over the Redskins, who were playing without starting QB Alex Smith. Additionally note that Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Titans. |
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12-16-18 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -130 | 90 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Dolphins (10* BLOWOUT UNDERDOG OF YEAR) The Dolphins will be looking to play spoiler here against a Vikings team which enters off a disheartening 21-7 loss to the Seahawks. Miami though is trending in the opposite direction, now having won two straight after a miraculous 34-33 win over the Patriots at home last weekend. Miami is back in playoff contention now at 7-6 and the re-emergence of QB Ryan Tannehill will prove to be the difference maker here in my opinion. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, while Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games following a two games or more unbeaten streak. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 24-21 Fish. |
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12-15-18 | Browns v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -105 | 74 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Broncos (10* MONEY-MAKER) I don’t think this one needs to be overanalyzed? The Browns have been a lot better than they were last year, but their inconsistency on the road and on the offensive end will prove to be their undoing here in my opinion in this difficult road venue. The Broncos had won three straight before last week’s 20-14 loss at San Francisco, but a date at Mile High vs. the lowly Browns is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track here in my opinion. The Browns average only 22.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Broncos average 22.3 PPG and allow 21.7. Despite the improvement, note as well that Cleveland is still only 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road dog of seven points or less. Lay the points on the still playoff hopeful Broncos. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Denver. |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Chargers (10* GAME OF WEEK) The Chargers’ Philip Rivers hasn’t had a lot of success against the Chiefs throughout his career. The Chiefs beat LA 38-28 back in Week 1 and LA is still in a dog fight for top spot in the AFC West. Both teams come in on top form and the Chargers are going to be laying everything on the line to pull off the upset. And I think they can do it. Lots has changed since Week 1, including the Chargers improving dramatically on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs have a high-scoring offense, but they’ve been atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. This one sets up great for an outright upset. Note as well that LA is 5-1 ATS on the road this year. I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Bolts. |
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12-10-18 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (10* TRADE-MARK) This is clearly a very important game for both teams. Both teams currently hold the wild card spots in the NFC, so a victory today is paramount to keep pace to close out the regular season. The Vikes are desperate to regain their form after a 24-10 road loss to New England, while the Hawks look poised for a letdown here after their 43-16 destruction of the 49ers last weekend. The Vikes average 22.9 PPG and they allow 22.5. The Seahawks average 26.6 PPG and they allow 21.6. Minnesota has responded well in this spot for bettors though, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a road loss. The Hawks on the other hand are 0-2 ATS in their last two MNF games. In a contest which I think’ll be decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Vikes. |
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12-09-18 | Rams -3 v. Bears | Top | 6-15 | Loss | -112 | 103 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Rams (NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR) The Bears have a tremendous defense, but the biggest question comes on the offensive side of the ball. The Rams have question marks on the defensive side of the ball, but not many can keep pace with them on the offensive side. The Bears are running out of gas as evidenced by their 30-27 OT loss to the lowly Giants last week. The Rams on the other hand seem to be getting better after each weekend, most recently coming away with an easy 30-16 road win at Detroit. Take it for what you will as well, but the Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a win by ten or more points. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-21 LA. |
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12-09-18 | Colts v. Texans -4.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 0 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Texans (8*) The Texans offense has put up 68 points over its last two games. The Colts come in off a 6-0 loss to Jacksonville. The Texans already beat the Colts 37-34 in Indianapolis and while “revenge” is always an angle I take into account, I don’t think it’s going to mean anything in this particular matchup. Indianapolis took a major step back last weekend offensively and I believe the Colts have run out of gas. The Texans hate the Colts and they’ll be eager to to deliver the “knock out blow.” Note that the Colts are just 5-9 ATS in their last 14 vs. the division, while the Texans are already 3-1 ATS this year as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-20 Houston. |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars +4.5 v. Titans | Top | 9-30 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars (10* MONEY-MAKER) Both teams have endured an up and down season. The Jaguars are down to their backup QB now and the only thing they have left to play for is the role of spoiler, and they did that in last week’s impressive 6-0 win over the Colts. Indianapolis came into that game on fire and the Jags’ defense posted its best performance of the year. No reason not to think the unit won’t carry that momentum over here. The Titans’ offense has been hit or miss, and last week the Titans had to rally for dear life to post a win over the lowly Jets. The Jags also play with revenge here, having dropped three straight in the series, including a 9-6 setback at home in the first one this season. Note as well that Jacksonville is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as a road underdog. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 21-17 Jacksonville. |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles -6 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Eagles (10* MONEY-MAKER) For me this one comes down to the starting QB’s. Both teams are hungry for a win (the Redskins are 6-5 and the Eagles are 5-6.) Washington lost the services of starting QB Alex Smith to injury and backup Colt McCoy had 268 yards, two TD’s and three INT’s in Thanksgivings 31-23 setback to Dallas. It was the fourth straight game that the Skins allowed at least 100 rushing yards. The Eagles rallied for a 25-22 win over the Giants last weekend and I think they carry that momentum over here. Carson Wentz was 20 of 28 for 236 yards and a TD. Note as well that Washington is 0-3 ATS in its last three after playing a “Thursday” game, while Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home win vs. a division rival. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-18 Philly. |
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12-02-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 151 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Chargers (10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH) Clearly this is a big game for both of these AFC opponents. LA is 8-3 and the Steelers are 7-2-1. LA comes in off a blowout win over the Cards, while the Steelers lost some momentum in a setback to Denver last week. The Chargers inconsistencies against the pass were evident last week, which I feel spells doom against Philip Rivers and company. Note that LA is 4-1 ATS on the road, while Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Chargers. |
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12-02-18 | Colts -4 v. Jaguars | 0-6 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indianapolis Colts (8*) With a chance to put the final nail in the coffin for the Jags season, I expect Andrew Luck and the surging Colts to lay the hammer down. Luck already has 3,112 passing yards with a sharp 32:11 TD/INT. Last Sunday he had 343 passing yards and two INT’s in the come back win over the Fish. The Jags won’t even be starting Blake Bortles this week, instead going with Cody Kessler. In last Sunday’s loss to the Bills he had 127 yards passing with one TD and two INT’s. Note that Jacksonville is 0-4-2 ATS in its last six following a SU loss, while Indianapolis is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Colts. |
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12-02-18 | Ravens +1.5 v. Falcons | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Ravens (8*) The Ravens can put the Falcons season to bed with a win today. Baltimore desperately needs a win as well sitting at 6-5. The Ravens once again turn to QB Lamar Jackson, who led his team to a 34-17 win over Oakland last weekend. Note that the Ravens still lead the NFL in yards allowed per game at just 295.4 per contest. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan has already been sacked 33 times this year. Ryan has been decent for ATL, but inconsistencies on both sides of the ball have been the Falcons undoing. Note that Baltimore is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of three points or less. T.M. Prediction: 25-23 Ravens. |
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12-02-18 | Browns +7 v. Texans | 13-29 | Loss | -140 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Browns (8*) Cleveland looks to pull of an upset here against the red hot Texans. The Browns have won two straight, most recently a 35-20 win over the Bengals. The Browns have looked a lot better defensively of late, allowing just 18 PPG over their last two. The Texans have won eight straight, but one has to wonder when the inevitable letdown will occur? I think it happens this week against a Browns team with nothing to lose. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-23 Houston. |
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12-02-18 | Rams v. Lions +10.5 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -130 | 144 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Lions (10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR) The Rams posted a 54-51 win over Kansas City back on November 19th and they then enjoyed their bye week. So will “rest” lead to “rust?” I think the answer will in fact be “yes.” As good as LA looked offensively in that win over the Chiefs, was as horrible as the defense performed though. The Lions have been the victim of injury and some plain old “bad luck,” but they won’t be going down without a fight. QB Matt Stafford is only 159 yards shy of his eight straight 3,000 yard season. Note as well that LA is just 4-5 ATS this year as a favorite. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Rams. |
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11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dallas Cowboys (10* TRADE-MARK) The Saints have the best record in the NFL, most recently coming off a 31-17 home win over the Falcons. The Cowboys though have turned things around, winners of three straight, including a 16-12 win on the road in Detroit on Thanksgiving. New Orleans has been on fire, but at some point the wheels are going to fall of the bus. And in my opinion, that happens this weekend. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I’ll point out that the Cowboys are already 2-0 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after two or more consecutive wins. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Saints. |
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11-26-18 | Titans v. Texans -4 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Texans (10* TRADE-MARK) The Titans smoked the Patriots and then had a predictable letdown in a 38-10 loss to the Colts last weekend. Houston won its seventh straight last weekend with a tight 23-21 win over Washington. The Texans can match a franchise record today with an eighth straight win and I don’t think they blow it. Tennessee’s momentum is now gone after last week’s loss and note that it’s just 9-14 ATS on the road in its last 23 anyways. The Texans also play with revenge here after a Week 2 setback in Tennessee. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 31-10 Texans. |
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11-25-18 | Packers v. Vikings -3.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 151 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Green Bay comes in off a deflating loss to the Seahawks last weekend and I think it’ll struggle to find the same intensity here against this desperate and hungry home side. The Vikes also enter off a tight loss in Chicago last weekend. The difference here though is that Minnesota is still very much in the thick of the playoff hunt with a win here today. Home field is going to be a major advantage in my opinion, as note that GB is just 1-5-1 TS in its last seven away from friendly confines. Minnesota on the other hand is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 following a loss. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Vikes. |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Panthers | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 144 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Seahawks (8* SUPER SHOCKER) It’s a do or die game for the Panthers as they continue to lose ground the NFC South. After back-to-back losses, the Seahawks can put the nail in the coffin with another victory today. The Hawks have found their running game and it’s opened things up for Russell Wilson. Seattle comes in off a confidence building win over Green Bay last weekend and there’s no reason not to think it can’t carry that momentum over here as well. Note as well that Seattle is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with winning records and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Hawks. |
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11-25-18 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 144 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Giants (10* MONEY-MAKER) I think “momentum” in sports is a very real, almost tangible factor. “Revenge” is also an angle which I also take into account. The revenge minded Giants come into this one off back-to-back blowout wins as the offense continues to make big strides. The Eagles come in off back to back losses, including a humbling setback last Sunday. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue. The Giants are 4-1 ATS on the road already this year and the Eagles are just 1-4 ATS at home. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-25 New York. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -133 | 81 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Falcons (10* TRADE-MARK) Outright win? I don’t think it’s as crazy as it sounds! The Falcons are clearly the more “desperate” team here, most recently coming off an upset loss in Detroit. Another loss today and ATL is essentially out of the playoff race. New Orleans on the other hand is on top of the World, most recently destroying the defending champion Eagles 48-7. It’s hard to imagine the Saints taking the foot off the gas at this point as they try to lock down the first week bye in the playoffs, but Atlanta simply won’t go down without a fight here. Note as well that the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine divisional road contests as an underdog in the +12 to +14 points range. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 New Orleans. |
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11-22-18 | Redskins +8.5 v. Cowboys | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 21 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Redskins (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Washington comes in as the more desperate team after falling 23-21 at home to Houston last weekend. The Cowboys come in off back-to-back road wins, including a tight 22-19 road victory over Atlanta last weekend. Washington took the first meeting of the year 20-17 and I do indeed believe that another outright win isn’t out of the question here either. Note that the Skins are 3-1 ATS on the road this year. The Cowboys are just 2-2 ATS at home and note that Dallas is only 1-4 ATS in its last five after two or more SU/ATS victories. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 21-20 Dallas. |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Lions (10* MONEY-MAKER) Clearly the Bears have been better than advertised this year. Chicago held on for a 25-20 home win over the Vikes on Sunday, its fourth straight win. Can anyone say letdown spot? The Lions have nothing to lose here and they enter off a confidence building 20-19 home win over Carolina. That was a quality victory on both ends of the field against a desperate team and I think the Lions will carry that momentum over here and take advantage of the short week home field nationally televised contest. Note as well that Detroit is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to under 20 points and playing on a short week. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 24-23 Detroit. |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Chiefs (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) I think these teams are very evenly matched. Clearly they are across the board. This one is going to come down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last in my estimation and as such, I’m going to grab the points. KC has proven it can go toe-to-toe with the elite in the league and on the National Stage, despite a loss in New England last month. The Rams on the other hand struggled to contain the explosive Saints, and the Chiefs are perhaps an even more dynamic offense than New Orleans. Additionally note that KC is already 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year, while LA is just 4-5 ATS as a favorite. T.M. Prediction: 33-30 Chiefs. |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -116 | 167 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The Vikes got back on track before their bye-week with a big win over the Lions, while Chicago enters off a win over Detroit just last week. Divisional battles are always the most important, but with a week off to prepare, I think Minnesota is the correct call here. Mitch Trubisky of the Bears is having a fine season, but he’s had difficulties with the “better” defensive clubs in the league. While the Vikes’ have struggled on the defensive side of the ball compared to last year, the unit has made big strides over the last week. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as an underdog, while Chicago is 0-2 ATS in its last two off a win against a conference rival and just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of three points or less. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Vikes. |
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11-18-18 | Panthers -3.5 v. Lions | 19-20 | Loss | -105 | 160 h 39 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Carolina is coming off a humbling loss in Pittsburgh last week, but overall Cam Newton and the Panthers have solid this year. Carolina’s defense has looked poor of late, but the unit catches a big break facing the Lions, who are averaging just 22 PPG. Detroit has nothing to play for, in fact “tanking” right now will only help its draft positioning. Note that Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. T.M. Prediction: 27-21 Panthers. |
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11-18-18 | Texans v. Redskins +3 | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 160 h 38 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Redskins (8* MONEY-MAKER) It’s an important game for both teams, who are on the fringe of the playoff picture with less than half the season remaining. These teams are in fact very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by Las Vegas. So where’s the advantage? Note that Houston is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight after two or more SU wins and still only 9-12 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Washington is already 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year and 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning records. T.M. Prediction: 23-21 Skins. |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +4 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 152 h 31 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Browns (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) This one has “nail biter” written all over it. The Falcons started 1-4, but they’ve since clawed their way back to a respectable 4-4 record. Atlanta has had to lean on QB Matt Ryan with significant injury to the run game, but one has to wonder how long the veteran pivot can maintain this high level of play? This is a difficult road venue and while the Browns’ defense has admittedly been terrible, Baker Mayfield and the home side clearly won’t be going down without a fight this season. Cleveland never expected to make the playoffs this year, but it did want to win a certain amount of games and while there’s been a big improvement over last year’s winless club, clearly no one in the “Dawg Pound” is very satisfied. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but this one goes down to the wire. T.M. Prediction: 26-25 Falcons. |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Colts | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 151 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) It’s been a dismal stretch for Blake Bortles and the Jags, who have had to deal with injuries to the run game early, a factor which completely threw the offense out of sync from the get go. The Jags remain competitive because of their elite defense, and I think that’ll again be the case here in this crucial divisional contest. It’s do or die essentially for each team’s season this week and as such, I believe this one will in fact be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Note as well that Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a divisional road dog in the 3.5 to 6.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 24-23 Jacksonville. |
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11-11-18 | Lions v. Bears -6.5 | Top | 22-34 | Win | 100 | 151 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Bears (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the Lions’ offensive line is going to struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue. The Bears have been improving on both sides of the ball almost every week it seems and I think that trend carries over here against this suspect Lions team. Detroit has major issues on both sides of the ball and I think Chicago can smell the blood in the water. Note that Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following a loss from a division rival and only 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Chicago. |
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11-08-18 | Panthers +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (10* MONEY-MAKER) These two teams are “firing on all cylinders” to use a big sports cliche. It would be easy to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win straight up. All in all, the oddsmakers pretty much think this is an even match with this spread. However, I think Cam Newton’s offense will keep his team competitive late. I believe these teams are a “wash” across the board, but note that Carolina is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a divisional contest and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Carolina. |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys -4 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dallas Cowboys (10* MONEY-MAKER) Both teams come out of their respective bye weeks. I think the extra time off will benefit the home side more in this one. Note that Dallas obtained WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders last week. Dallas is in a “must win” mode as it sits two games behind the Red Skins. The Titans came up short in a 20-19 setback to the Chargers in their final game before their bye. After starting the season 3-1, the Titans come in having lost three in a row. Note that Tennessee is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range and only 8-13 ATS in its last 21 on the road overall, while Dallas is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 25-15 Cowboys. |
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11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks | 25-17 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Seahawks (8* MONEY-MAKER) These teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers. I think the Chargers though struggle in the non-conference format and off their bye week. The Hawks have been rolling and I don’t foresee a letdown at this point. Russell Wilson is firing on all cylinders and there’s no reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here as well. Additionally note that the Chargers are 4-6 ATS in their last ten non-conference games and already 0-2 ATS this season. T.M. Prediction: 30-18 Hawks. |
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11-04-18 | Texans +3 v. Broncos | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 142 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Texans (10* TRADE-MARK) Houston comes in rested after its bye and on a win streak. The Broncos enter off a loss and I think they’re ripe for the picking here. Denver won’t have an answer for DeShaun Watson, who I expect to have a big game here against this suspect Broncos’ secondary. Additionally note that Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive wins, while Denver is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home fav or three points or less. T.M. Prediction: 26-20 Houston. |
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11-04-18 | Lions v. Vikings -4.5 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 139 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) Both teams have struggled on the defensive side of the ball. That’s more surprising coming from the Vikes considering they led the league in most defensive categories last year. The Lions have gotten inconsistent play out of QB Matt Stafford though, while the Vikes have gotten very consistent play from Kirk Cousins. I think Cousins will be a difference maker in this one. Note that the Lions are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Minnesota is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as a fav in the same points range. T.M. Prediction: 31-20 Vikes. |
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11-04-18 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 139 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Carolina comes in off a convincing victory at home and while the Bucs come in off a victory as well, I think the under-manned visitors are going to have their hands full with the Panthers’ Cam Newton, who has returned to form over the last month. Home field advantage can not be overlooked as a deciding factor either in my opinion. Additionally note that Tampa is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 34-20 Panthers. |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings -1 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -120 | 168 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR). Both teams are surging and each comes in off a victory. The Saints though won on the road last week and asking New Orleans to do it again this weekend in this difficult venue is going to be too much for even Drew Brees in my opinion. The Saints have been tough against the run, but poor against the pass, which doesn’t bode well facing the ever improving Kirk Cousins and company. Note as well that the Vikes are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 at home. T.M. Prediction: 33-27 Vikes. |
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10-28-18 | Packers +10.5 v. Rams | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 164 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Green Bay Packers (9* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Rams are unbeaten and clearly they’re the better overall team across the board, but I still think that Aaron Rodgers and the under-manned Green Bay Packers will give the home side everything it can handle tonight. It’s hard to imagine anyone “looking past” a match-up against Rodgers, but with a game at surging New Orleans next weekend, it’s definitely not too hard to envision that happening to the Rams in some small way as well. Additionally note that LA is a poor 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Green Bay is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two after playing on MNF. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 LA. |
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10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders +1 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -115 | 164 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oakland Raiders (10* GAME OF MONTH) Jon Gruden signed a 10-year $100 million contract. Dominating in his very first year is not a priority. That said, a 1-5 start is obviously not what he hand in mind either. Oakland still possesses plenty of talent on both sides of the ball though and coming out of their bye, I believe the Raiders take advantage of a Colts team which looks poised for a bit letdown here after last week’s victory. Andrew Luck has looked good so far this year, but so too has Derek Carr for the Raiders. Note as well that the Colts are still a terrible 11-17 ATS in their last 28 against conference opponents and only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3. Expect Gruden to punch another one into the win column this afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 29-25 Oakland. |
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10-28-18 | Browns +7.5 v. Steelers | 18-33 | Loss | -105 | 161 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Browns (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) These teams played to a 21-21 tie in Week 1 in Cleveland. Clearly we’re not going to see another “tie” game, however a “battle till the end” is fully anticipated. The Steelers have made big strides since Week 1, but Cleveland’s strength in special teams and on defense keep this one competitive late in my opinion. Baker Mayfield will be given the green light to make some plays today and I think he’ll have opportunity as well against a Steelers unit which has looked shaky at times this season. Further note that the Browns are already 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while the Steelers are just 1-3 ATS as the favorite. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Steelers. |
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10-28-18 | Jets v. Bears -5.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 161 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Bears (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Jets are injured. RB Bilal Powell was lost for the season in last week’s blowout setback for New York. The Bears are in desperate need of a victory, but the remain competitive on both sides of the ball. A big blowout victory is just what the doctor ordered to get their season back on track and the lowly Jets are the perfect opponent to do that against. Jets’ QB Sam Darnold struggled last week and I think he’ll have difficulties in this hostile road venue this afternoon as well. Additionally note that the Jets are only 4-6 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. T.M. Prediction: 30-17 Chicago. |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins +7 v. Texans | Top | 23-42 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Dolphins (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) These teams are moving in opposite directions. Miami has lost three straight, most recently a 32-21 home loss to Detroit, while Houston has won four straight, most recently a 20-7 road victory over Jacksonville. The good news for the Dolphins though is that there still in the mix sitting at 4-3 and I believe that they’ll give the over-confident Texans everything they can handle this evening. Ryan Tannehill is out for the Fish, but Brock Osweiler now has plenty of experience, and I don’t personally see much of a difference between the two pivots anyways. The Texans may have won four straight, but their offense continues to underwhelm. Note that Houston is already 0-2 ATS this year as a 3.5 to 9.5 points favorite and only 1-5 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 23-20 Dolphins. |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys v. Redskins | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 127 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Redskins (9* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Both teams come in a 3-3, but I think the Redskins are going to find a way to get the job done at home today. Dallas enters off a 40-7 win over Jacksonville at home, as RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards and a TD, while Dak Prescott had 183 passing yards and two TD’s. The defense looked good against an impotent Jags’ attack, but I think the unit will have its hands full today in this difficult road venue. Washington’ QB Alex Smith had 163 yards and two TD’s with no INT’s in last weeks’ 23-17 win over a difficult Carolina team. Note that Dallas is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while Washington is already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Washington. |
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10-21-18 | Patriots -3 v. Bears | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New England Patriots (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Patriots come in off a huge victory over the Chiefs on Sunday night and I think Tom Brady and company will carry that momentum over here. The Bears on the other hand come in off a terrible home loss to a Miami team which was led by Brock Osweiler. And that doesn’t bode well facing Brady, who had 340 yards and a TD in last week’s shootout win over KC. Pats’ rookie RB Sony Michel had a huge game as well, finishing with 106 yards and two TD’s. With Julian Edelman back in the line-up, the Patriots’ offense is finally rounding into form. The Pats looked terrible defensively last week, but facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is one thing and facing Mitch Trubisky and the Bears is obviously quite another. Note that Chicago is just 1-3-1 ATS in it last five after allowing 150 rushing yards in its previous game, while New England is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss. T.M. Prediction: 30-20 Patriots. |
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10-21-18 | Browns +3.5 v. Bucs | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 123 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Browns (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) I think the Bucs will be a popular pick here with many, but I don’t think that the defensive coordinator change for Tampa is going to change too much on that side of the ball in such a short time. And that leaves the door open for Baker Mayfield and company, who will clearly be given the green light to air it out early and often. The Browns are once again going through a transition on the offensive side of the ball, but the defense and special teams remains decent and I think they’ll help keep the hungry visiting side in this game late. Remember, a week before last week’s 34-29 loss to Atlanta, the Bucs allowed six passing TD’s to the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky. Note that Cleveland is already 2-0 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa Bay is only 8-10 ATS in its last 18 at home. T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Cleveland. |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 156 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Chiefs (10* TRADE-MARK) I’m banking on Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs offense to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I don’t think that Tom Brady and the Pats will be able to match pace. KC enters off a convincing 30-14 win over Jacksonville. The Pats started off 1-2, but they come in off back-to-back victories, including a 38-24 win over the Colts most recently. With a chance to grab top spot in the AFC with a win tonight, I think the visitors will push the home side to the brink. The numbers support us as well, as note that IC is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 30-25 KC. |
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10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans +2.5 | 21-0 | Loss | -100 | 152 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee Titans (9* BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams come in off losses. Baltimore fell 12-9 in OT on the road in Cleveland and I think it struggles again away from friendly confines. The Titans return home off a 13-12 road loss in Buffalo. A little home cooking is what the doctor ordered to get back on track though, as Tennessee took this matchup here last November, 23-20. The Ravens numbers are skewed a bit because of a couple of big games to open the year, but they’ve been consistently sliding backwards since. Tennessee is struggling to put points on the board, but it’s defense has been excellent thus far, conceding just 17.2 PPG. I think Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota and the offense response finally in this crucial game. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Titans. |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 152 h 46 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Denver Broncos (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) LA went on the road and beat the Seahawks 33-31 last weekend. It was a tougher than expected battle and LA enters this non-conference road game with a perfect record thus far. Denver on the other hand returns to Mile High off a humbling 34-16 setback on the road to the Jets. I think this one sets up great for the home side from a situational stand point. It’s difficult to win on the road in the NFL, let alone cover a spread. LA ran out of gas last week and I expect it to have its hands full today with a Denver team that will be out to push the pace and atone for last week’s pathetic effort. Note that Denver is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 30 or more points in its previous contest, while LA is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Rams. |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals +10.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 149 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Cardinals (10* DOG OF THE YEAR) Arizona comes in confident after its 28-18 road win over San Francisco last weekend. The Vikes have been “hit or miss” this year and I believe they’re poised for a letdown after last week’s difficult 23-21 victory over the Eagles. The Cards offense has been terrible this year (last in many statistical offensive categories), but the unit took a big step in the right direction last week. The Arizona defense though has been solid, last week holding the 49ers to 18 points and the Seahawks to just 20 the week before that. So that doesn’t bode well for Minnesota, which is averaging only 22.6 PPG. The defense is a shell of its former self as well, allowing 26.2 PPG this year. I think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. T.M. Prediction: 21-17 Vikes. |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Eagles (10* TV GAME OF THE YEAR) I think the Giants are going to be a popular pick with many. But I’m going the other way as I expect the defending champs to dig deep and to find a way to get the job done here on the short week. Philadelphia will be turning to Carson Wentz in this one after RB Jay Ajayi went down with injury last week. Despite being just 2-3 overall, Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on the combination of Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor, who have 649 yards and two TD’s between them. Overall the defense remains the strength of the Eagles right now, the unit currently allowing 20.8 PPG. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, because at 1-4, the Giants are basically out of playoff contention already anyways. Eli Manning has been decent for New York with 1,381 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard have 766 receiving yards combined along with three TD’s. Overall New York is allowing 23.8 PPG. But note that the Giants are still just 3-7 ATS in their last ten at home, while the Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 played in New York. I think Philly’s tough defensive plays propels the visitors to a solid victory on Thursday night. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Eagles. |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 142 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Seahawks (10* TRADE-MARK) The Seahawks are essentially playing for their playoff lives this week. LA has so far been the “cream of the crop” in the NFL this year, but I think it’ll stumble just enough for Seattle to at least come through with the solid cover. LA is averaging 35 PPG and it’s allowing only 16.8. Seattle is averaging 21.2 PPG and it’s allowing only 20.2. The Seahawks have won two straight and they enjoy a significant home field advantage. Note as well that that the underdog is 11-5 ATS the last 16 in this series. While Seattle’s defense is not what it once was, it’s still allowing just 204.2 passing yards per game. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Rams. |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 138 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Browns (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) It’s a mid-season AFC North showdown on Sunday. Baltimore is 3-1 after beating Pittsburgh on Sunday, while Cleveland comes in hungry and pissed off after it’s 45-42 OT loss at Oakland. Everything’s been going right for Joe Flacco and the Ravens to this point, but I think the visitors come in a tiny bit complacent here. No such luxury for the Browns though. Cleveland’s offense has already made big strides with Baker Mayfield and RB Nick Chubb, who had 105 yards and two TD’s in last week’s loss to Oakland. The Ravens are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against teams with losing records. Grab the points and expect a war! T.M. Prediction: 24-23 Browns. |
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10-07-18 | Titans -3 v. Bills | 12-13 | Loss | -125 | 138 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee Titans (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I’m expecting a complete blowout here. The Titans railed for a 26-23 OT win over Philadelphia last week, while Buffalo enters off a 22-0 road loss to Green Bay. The Titans average just 18.8 PPG, but they allow only 18.2. Last week Marcus Mariota had his best game of the season, finishing with 344 passing yards with two TD’s and an INT. There’s no reason to to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here in my opinion. The Bills on the other hand are averaging just 12.5 PPG, while allowing 26.5. Rookie QB Josh Allen has a weak 2:4 TD/INT. Note as well that Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Tennessee is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven after posing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. There’s everything to like about Tennessee right now and there’s absolutely nothing to like about Buffalo. I’m laying the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Titans. |
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10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers -7 | 31-33 | Loss | -100 | 138 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) New York’s offense and defense has been terrible so far, which doesn’t bode well facing this Carolina team coming out of its bye week on the road. A big bonus for Carolina today is the return of WR Chris Samuel, who missed the first three games with a heart issue, but who led the preseason with ten catches for 180 yards. The Giants gave up three TD drives of 74 yards or longer in a 33-18 home loss to the Saints on Sunday. New York has posted just five sacks total through five games and it’s held its opposition on third down just 50 percent of the time. Cam Newton and the Panthers are averaging just 203.7 YPG passing, but with a week off to prepare and facing the suspect Giants’ secondary, I look the talented pivot to have a big game in front of the home town crowd. Note that the Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four following their bye week, while the Giants are just 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with an above .500 home record. I’m expecting a blowout. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Panthers. |
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09-30-18 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 163 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Seahawks (10* NFC WEST “GOY.”) Arizona is winless and the Hawks can put the Cards out of their misery today. While Seattle is a shell of its former self, I still believe that Russell Westbrook will be the difference maker here for the visiting side. The Hawks enter off a confidence building 13 points victory over Dallas last weekend. RB Chris Carson had 102 rushing yards with a TD. The defense also stepped up big, as Earl Thomas had two INT’s. Wilson continues to put up elite numbers, with 716 yards and a 7:3 TD/INT. Arizona enters off a deflating 16-14 home loss to the Bears. Rookie QB Josh Rosen will make his first NFL start here. The offense ranks dead last in many categories, as WR Larry Fitzgerald has just 113 yards on 12 catches with no TD’s (no WR has a TD yet in fact for the Cards.) Note that Arizona is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Seattle is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven in this series as the road team. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 23-17 Hawks. |
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09-30-18 | Texans +2.5 v. Colts | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 160 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Houston Texans (8*) Both teams can’t be happy. Especially Houston though, which is 0-3. Indianapolis comes in off a disappointing 20-16 loss in Philadelphia last week. Houston though is on the cusp of breaking out and despite their season already lost with the terrible start, note that Houston has been averaging 396.3 YPG, but that’s translated into only 19.7 PPG average. Overall the Texans are allowing 24.7. DeAndre Hopkins has been a bright spot with 274 receiving yards in three games. The Colts are averaging 20 PPG and allowing 21. Andrew Luck has a pedestrian 5:3 TD/INT. Indy’s main RB Marlon Mack hasn’t played yet this year and he’s questionable for this one as well. Note that the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the AFC South, while Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against a team with a losing home record. I like DeShaun Watson to guide Houston over Luck and the Colts questionable secondary. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Houston. |
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09-30-18 | Bengals +5.5 v. Falcons | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 160 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Bengals (8*) Atlanta looks ripe for the picking in my opinion. The Falcons opened with a loss to the Eagles, followed by a win over Carolina, which was then followed by a crushing OT loss to division rival New Orleans last week. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Cincinnati is 2-1 despite losing at Carolina last week and while I think it could win this one outright, I’ll grab the points in the end. New Orleans is banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Note that ATL is 0-5 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 250 passing yards, while Cincinnati is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 against teams with losing records. The Falcons’ are also dealing with an injury to No. 1 RB Devonta Freeman. This one has “upset” written all over it. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Bengals. |
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09-30-18 | Jets +10 v. Jaguars | 12-31 | Loss | -130 | 160 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Jets (8*) New York struggled last week, but I think it’ll have enough in the tank to keep this one close down the stretch against the struggling Jaguars’ offense. New York enters off a 21-17 loss at Cleveland, a game which it was in control of for most of. QB Sam Darnold has 701 passing yards, three TDs’ and five INT’s. Overall though the Jets are averaging 25.7 PPG and allowing 19.3. Jacksonville is averaging 19.0 PPG and allowing 14.7. Last week Blake Bortles had 155 yards and overall the offense produced just 12 first downs in the 9-6 loss to Tennessee. Note that RB’s TJ Yeldon and Leonard Fournette are both listed as questionable still. I smell an upset. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 21-18 Jags. |
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09-23-18 | Chargers +7 v. Rams | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -115 | 152 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Chargers (10* TRADE-MARK) The Rams have been unbelievable, but the Chargers match up well against their cross town rivals. The Chargers had five sacks against Josh Allen last week. QB Philip Rivers already has 680 yards passing, six TD’s and one INT. Melvin Gordon has looked strong on the ground and he’ll test a Rams’ defense which to this point has given up just 6.5 PPG. But that’s because the Rams beat Arizona 34-0 last week. Clearly the Cardinals have some serious offensive issues. But Rivers and company don’t have that issue at all. Note as well that the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, while the Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. Rivers has the experience to keep this one competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Chargers. |
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers -3 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 149 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8*) The Bengals are primed for a letdown after going 2-0 to start the season, including a satisfying 34-23 home win over division rival Baltimore. Carolina on the other hand is 1-1 and looking to get back into the winners circle after falling 31-24 in Atlanta last week. Andy Dalton has looked great in the early going for the Bengals with a 6:1 TD/INT, but a the Cincy defense did allow 425 yards last week, including 376 through the air. A non conference date on the road just smells like a complete “letdown” spot for Cincinnati in my opinion. The Panthers’ Cam Newton had 335 yards, three TD’s and 42 rushing yards last week. The defense uncharacteristically struggled, but I think it’ll return to form here at home. Note that Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home, while Cincinnati is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five in this series. Despite last week’s result, the Panther still rank seventh in the NFL in pass defense. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Panthers. |
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09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons -3 | 43-37 | Loss | -114 | 149 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Falcons (8*) Division battles are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side (for obvious reasons.) Both teams are 1-1. The Saints lost to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and then had to hold on for dear life in a victory over the Browns in Week 2. The Saints have looked suspect defensively and the offense is also lacking chemistry. The Falcons had their chances in Week 1 to put away the Eagles, but they’d go 0 for 3 in the red zone. Last week Atlanta was 4 for 4 in the red zone in their win over the Panthers. I think that offensive momentum gets carried over here. Note that ATL is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while New Orleans is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the division. Look for the Falcons to step up and defend home turf. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Falcons. |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -4.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 149 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Ravens (8*) Denver is 2-0 on the season, but it hits the road for the first time this year and I think it’ll stumble. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has already been picked off four times over the first two games and that doesn’t bode well facing this Ravens’ defense which was burned by Cincinnati last week. Joe Flacco is past his prime, but I still give the veteran the nod in this matchup. I’m not buying into Denver as its achilles heel has always been its play on the road. Note that Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while Denver is just 1-9 ATS in its last ten on the road. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Ravens. |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -103 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Jets (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT!) Why not the Jets on Thursday night? Of course the Browns are “hungry” for a win, but New York is equally as so. Cleveland had two legitimate chances for a victory to open the season and it’s come up short each time. The Jets looked great in Week 1, before then stumbling in Week 2, but defensively New York has been “lights out” so far, allowing just 18.5 PPG. New York isn’t going to allow Tyrod Taylor a lot space to throw the ball around today, so with each team putting an added emphasis on trying to establish the run while on offense, I’m expecting a tight battle until the final moments (basically whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I expect to win.) In a situation like that, give me the points! T.M. Prediction: Jets 23-20. |
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09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 151 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dallas Cowboys (10* GAME OF MONTH) Both teams come in off duds. It’s just as difficult to write a convincing argument for the Giants as it is for the Cowboys. Both teams have major QB issues, as Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott threw for 17 yards in last week’s 16-8 loss to Carolina. That was a difficult match-up, but I think the Cowboys will have much more opportunity offensively today against the Giants’ suspect defense. New York QB’ Eli Manning had 223 yards passing, no TD’s and an INT. RB Saquon Barkley was a bright spot for New York, but I still think the Cowboys have the big advantage in that department with Ezekiel Elliot. Dallas is still 13-10 ATS in its last 23 as a fav, while NY is still only 11-12 ATS in its last 23 as a dog. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 24-16 Cowboys. |
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09-16-18 | Colts +5.5 v. Redskins | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 144 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indianapolis Colts (8*) Andrew Luck and the Colts looked good for one half last week, before then falling apart in the third quarter and eventually getting blown out 34-23 at home to the Bengals. But Luck finished with 319 passing yards and two TD’s. With that rust shaken off, I think Indy can give Washington a run for its money today. The Colts looked decent defensively too last week. The Redskins hammered the Cardinals 24-6, holding them to just 213 total yards. I think Washington comes in over confident. New QB Alex Smith looked sharp, but I still think the book is out on the veteran and I expect him to be under a lot of pressure today. The outright win? It’s not out of the question, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Colts. |
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09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills +8.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -130 | 144 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo Bills (8*) Both teams looked pretty terrible in Week 1. LA lost 38-28 at home to the Chiefs, while Buffalo was demolished 47-3 by Baltimore. Note that this is a revenge game for Buffalo after it fell 54-24 to the Chargers on the road last year. LA looked especially horrible on the defensive side of the ball last week. QB Philip Rivers looked decent, but the defensive unit would allow four passing TD’s. Buffalo has already made a switch at QB from Nathan Peterman to Josh Allen. The Bills defense allowed 369 yards last week, but I expect some improvement in front of the home town crowd on Sunday. LA’s achilles heel has been its play on the road the last few seasons, while the strength of Buffalo has been its performance in all home contests. I look for these strong trends to continue. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 21-20 Chargers. |
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09-16-18 | Vikings +1.5 v. Packers | 29-29 | Win | 100 | 144 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (8*) Aaron Rogers will most likely play in this one for Green Bay, but whether he does or he doesn’t I think the visitors will find a way to get the job done in the end. Minnesota posted a 24-16 home win over San Francisco last week, while the Packers came from behind to knock off the Bears 24-23. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Vikes have to be loving their chances today as note they won both games in the series last year, including a 16-0 victory at Lambeau late in the season. Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins had 244 yards and two TD’s, and while Rogers is clearly the better pivot in this match-up overall, the Packers’ QB is not going to be at 100% health today. And that’s bad news for a Green Bay team which is just 1-5 ATS in its last in its last six at home. Minnesota’s depth on both sides of the ball wears down Green Bay. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Vikings. |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Bengals (10* GAME OF WEEK). It’s safe to say that there’s no love loss between these division rivals. Andy Dalton and the Bengals have struggled against the Ravens defense over the years, but after the way Cincinnati closed out the Colts in the second half on the road last week, I absolutely expect the home side to defend its turf. Baltimore looked fantastic against the toothless Bills, but I believe that sets it up for a classic “letdown” as the team comes in over confident. I don’t think actually resting its starters (the Ravens rested most of their offensive/defensive starters in the third quarter after the game was out of reach last weekend) is a benefit for Baltimore at this time of year. The starters don’t need rest, they need playing time. And that’s exactly what Dalton needed, as after a sub-par first half, he and his offense were firing on all cylinders in the second. I think Flacco and the Ravens are the ones to take a step back on the short week on the road. Play on Cincinnati. T.M. Prediction: Bengals 24-20. |
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