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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +4 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 62 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (10* BLOOD-BATH). I had a play on the “under” in Game 4, but for Game 5 I’m going to concentrate on the side. Possibly again without their best player in Kevin Durant on the floor, I believe the Warriors are still going to find a way to get the job done here and send this one back to Oakland. Serge Ibaka had a big game for the Raptors in Game 4, but it’s hard to imagine the big man duplicating that performance in back-to-back contests. I think this one has outright “upset” written all over it (that said though, grab the points!) T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Warriors. |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 216 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 37 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Warriors under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Golden State is still without Kevin Durant, but it is set to welcome back shooter Klay Thompson, who sat out Game 3 with injury. Toronto got out to a blistering start in Game 3 and Golden State was never able to catch up or hold it back. The Warriors took control of Game 2 in the second half of that contest behind a spectacular defensive performance and in my opinion, Golden State is going to be out to duplicate the performance here as it looks to avoid dropping into a 1-3 hole. Toronto looked great on both ends of the court in Game 3 and while it was unable to slow down Stephen Curry, the Raptors would do more than enough to slow down the rest of the role players. I think the Warriors body up from start to finish and I expect the visitors to follow suit. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 107-102 Golden State. |
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06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 123-109 | Loss | -106 | 62 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State (10* GAME OF WEEK) Golden State looked dominant in the second half of Game 2, especially on the defensive end and with this series now shifting to the West Coast, I’m expecting the veteran laden defending champions to keep the foot on the gas in front of the home town crowd. The biggest difference though between Game’s 1 and 2? Golden State’s role players stepped up big in Game 2 and outplayed their counterparts. It’s not going to get any easier for Toronto’s bench either in this hostile environment. The pressure is now definitely on the Raptors, who I believe are now in over their heads an in unchartered territory. Additionally note that Toronto is only 3-11 ATS in its last 14 at Golden State, while the Warriors are a sharp 7-2 ATS in their last nine when playing on two or more days rest. T.M. Prediction: 108-99 Warriors. |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 59 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (10* GAME OF MONTH) If you’re watching this game, then the story lines are well known for each team. The Warriors are trying to three-peat and they’re playing without Kevin Durant. The Raptors have been on a role all season long and have been riding the fantastic play of Kawhi Leonard. With or without Durant though, I think the Warriors are going to find a way to win Game 2 outright. The playoffs, much like handicapping, is all about making adjustments and the Warriors are filled with so much talent and experience, that I look for them to do just that. I expect Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to once again have big games, but I also expect the Warriors bench and role players to finally “show up.” Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Golden State. |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | 109-118 | Loss | -113 | 85 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Warriors (8*) For all the same reasons that I like the Warriors in the FIRST HALF, I also like them for the entire game. Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question, but I’ll grab the points. Note as well that Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road dog and 7-3 ATS in its last then when playing with three or more days rest, while the Raptors are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine in the same position. Also note that the favorite is 0-4 ATS the last four in this series. Toronto may have taken both regular season meetings, but now that “the real thing,” is here, expect the champs to deliver. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 85 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Raptors over (10*) I played primarily on the Raptors in the ECF, but in Game 1 of the Finals, I’m going with the defending champs. With so much time off between series, I believe each team comes out refreshed and pushes the pace from start to finish. The Warriors will be out to set the tempo and I expect the champs to be relentless in trying to do that. This one has the feel of a “shootout” rather than a defensive “chess match.” Note as well that Golden State has seen the total go over in ten of 15 already this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Toronto has seen the total sail over the number in three of four already this season when playing with three or more days rest. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -133 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 37 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-LINE MONEY-MAKER) Momentum is a very real, almost “tangible” factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. After looking like a deer caught in the headlights in Games 1 and 2, it’s been all Toronto ever since. The defensive adjustments that the Raptors made have paid huge dividends and with a chance to end this series here and now, I think Kawhi Leonard is going to once again play the role of Super Man here and dominate from start to finish. The Raptors have a distinct home court advantage and I look for them to utilize that here. The Bucks are in unchartered territory and I believe their lack of experience will ultimately be their undoing in this series. I like the home side to find a way to punch its ticket to the NBA Final. T.M. Prediction: 113-100 Toronto. |
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05-23-19 | Raptors +7 v. Bucks | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (8*) Kawhi Leonard got the Raptors to the ECF’s for the first time in franchise history and if he’s going to take them to the Finals, he’s going to have to figure out a way to win on the road in Milwaukee. So far “home floor” has meant everything in this series, but I think that trend is about to end tonight. The difference between Game’s 1 and 2 and Game 5? The Raptors’ bench. Toronto’s bench players were a “no show” in Milwaukee in the first two games, but the entire unit came back to life in Toronto and I think they’re going to now carry that momentum/confidence over here. Toronto big man Marc Gasol has also looked a lot better and that’s opened things up for Leonard to operate offensively, as well as dominate Bucks’ star Giannis defensively. I’m not buying into the “home floor” advantage this time around. Look for Leonard to continue to redefine Raptors basketball with a signature road victory. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Raptors. |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Bucks under (10*) Kawhi Leonard is a new face to the Raptors, but he comes in with a ton of experience in the playoffs. Overall the Raptors have the advantage in the “experience” department. After getting “shell shocked” over the first two games of this series, Toronto returned to form on its own floor in Game’s 3 and 4 and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Leonard has been an absolute beast on both ends of the floor, but especially defensively vs. Bucks’ star Giannis. Toronto’s role players are back playing with a ton of confidence, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee has been tough defensively as well in this series. This one has the feel of an all out war, where every possession is contested. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Raptors. |
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05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 216 | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 13 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Raptors under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Game 2 of course would have gone well under the number if not for the Raptors double OT victory. Toronto looked a lot better defensively, especially Kawhi Leonard in slowing down Bucks’ super star Giannis Antetokounmpo (12 points on 5 of 16 shooting, committing eight turnovers.) Toronto is going to employ an identical defensive game plan here as well obviously, except this time each side comes in extra tired after the marathon game last time out. It sets up perfectly as more of a defensive affair in my opinion. Both teams have excelled defensively so far in the playoffs and I believe that will again be the case here. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 108-105 Milwaukee. |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +155 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Trail Blazers MONEY LINE (10* GAME OF WEEK) I thought Golden State was going to win this series, but I didn’t foresee a “sweep.” Especially with KD sidelined with injury. I believe Portland offers great value here though to salvage a little respect and to earn a Game 3 victory outright. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the Warriors, clearly they’ve “found their groove” riding the red hot shooting of Klay Thompson and captain Stephen Curry. I simply feel that Golden State has a letdown here with the knowledge that KD can now return and that they also have a Game 5 to wrap up this series in front of the home town crowd. I don’t think Damian Lillard and proud home side go down without a fight tonight. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that GS is just 4-12 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less this season, while Portland is still 5-1 ATS this season as a home underdog. Play on Portland money line. T.M. Prediction: 115-105 Blazers. |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-MAKER). Toronto has looked decent in the first half of both games so far in the ECF’s, but the second half it’s been non-existent. The Raptors are better at home than on the road though, as they enjoy one of the league’s “best” home court advantages. It’s difficult to play North of the border and I believe the surging Bucks finally have a letdown here. Milwaukee has been playing at an extremely high level with only one loss so far in the playoffs, but it’s about to have its hands full in this difficult venue in my opinion. The Raptors are fantastic defensively on their own floor and I believe that trend carries over here. The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that the Bucks are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Toronto is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-112 Raptors. |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 36 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Blazers under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Game 2 went “over” in the Warriors 114-111 victory. Portland controlled the game over the first half, but Golden State’s prowess from behind the arc once again proved to be too much for Portland to handle down the stretch. Remember, they’re doing all of this without Kevin Durant, possibly the best player on the planet. The Warriors were wildly inconsistent over the second half of the regular season this year (for their lofty standards anyways) and they looked very susceptible vs. the Clippers in their six game opening round series victory. Golden State’s achilles heel has been its play on the road though and clearly the Blazers will be doubling down on the defensive end as they try desperate to back into this series. The shift in venue points to more of a defensive affair finally in my opinion, as I expect the home side to press from the opening tip, until the final horn. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 Blazers. |
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05-17-19 | Raptors +7 v. Bucks | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-MAKER) Toronto controlled Game 1 up until about mid-way through the fourth quarter. That’s when the Bucks were finally able to get over the hump, pulling away for a very tight cover in the closing moments. But I’m expecting the Raptors to come back even harder here. There’s no reason at all not to expect another battle here, as these two evenly matched sides aren’t going to give an inch. Note that Toronto is already 2-0 ATS this year when trailing in a playoff series and 20-12 ATS in its last 22 after failing to cover five or six of its last seven ATS, while Milwaukee is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after five or more consecutive victories. While I do believe the outright is a possibility, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Toronto. T.M. Prediction: 108-107 Raptors. |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Portland (10* MONEY-MAKER) Analysis posted at least 8 hours before game time. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Golden State. |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 62 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Bucks under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Toronto lost three of four to Milwaukee in the regular season, but I think Kawhi Leonard and company will at the very least take Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals right down to the wire. These teams are similar in many respects, in that they have a clear top tier dominant player (Leonard for the Raptors and Giaanis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks), as well as a strong cast of starting role players, combined with a deep and talented bench. Toronto’s late acquisition of big man Marc Gasol could swing this series in favor of Toronto though as he and Serge Ibaka proved to be too much for 76ers’ big man Joel Embiid to handle. And I think the combination of the two will prove difficult for Milwaukee as well. The Bucks have yet to be tested in any real way so far in the Playoffs, but I believe that changes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. This one just screams “defensive battle” in my opinion. Note as well though that Toronto has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 when playing with two days rest, while Milwaukee has seen the total go under in all five games that it’s played in tho shear with three or more days of rest. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 Bucks. |
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05-14-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Portland Trail Blazers (10* GAME OF WEEK) Golden State got by the Rockets in Game 6 without the services of All Star Kevin Durant, but I think the defending champs will struggle in Game 1 of the WCF. These teams split four regular season meetings and in my opinion, everything points to another competitive affair here. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are going to be a matchup issue for the undermanned Warriors, and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I think the conditions are definitely right for a war until the end. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Portland is 50-32 ATS in its last 82 vs. teams which allow 106 plus points or more, while Golden State is just 18-27 ATS as a home favorite this year. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-109 Warriors. |
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05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209 | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 55 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Raptors under (8* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) This has been another wild and unpredictable series. When these teams play at their best defensively, they have usually come out on top so far in the playoffs though and with so much on the line, I think that Game 7 sets up beautifully as a tightly contested, lower-scoring defensive battle. These have been two of the best defensive clubs during the postseason and I believe they continue that trend here. And the numbers/trends do indeed support that theory, as note that Philly has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 22 when playing with two days rest, while Toronto has seen the total dip below in ten of its last 15 in the same position. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 106-100 Toronto. |
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05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* SUPER TOTAL) This has been a back and forth series and in Game 7 I believe that we’ll witness a very defensive affair. Fatigue comes into play here in Game 7 of this second round contest. Also note that the thin air of Denver can’t help these “gassed” players either. Denver has been at its best at home, but I’m expecting a battle until the final horn. In my opinion, this one sets up as a very tight, closely guarded defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring run and gun “shootout.” And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Portland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 22 following a home win vs. a division rival, while Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten this year when playing with two days rest. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Nuggets. |
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05-10-19 | Warriors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (10* GAME OF WEEK) I had a play on the Rockets in their tight Game 5 loss, but for Game 6 I’m going the other way as I expect the defending champs, despite playing without the services of Kevin Durant, to battle tight and to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. If ever there was a time for Klay Thompson to step up and show the basketball World that he’s worth a max contract, now is the time. With Durant available for the next round, the Warriors don’t need to panic at this point. If Golden State gets a decent game out of Curry and a good one from Thompson, they have a legitimate shot at taking this game outright. So far home court advantage has meant everything in this series, but the veteran leadership which the Warriors bring to the table in this instance is the difference maker in my opinion. Note as well that Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 when trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is 0-2 ATS in its last two when facing elimination in a playoff series. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Rockets. |
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05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers under (10* TOTAL EXPRESS) Coaching in the Playoffs, especially in the second round and beyond is all about “making adjustments.” Denver’s been great in that so far after taking out the Spurs in seven games and now seemingly getting a “firm read” on the Blazers and managing to slow down their star Damian Lillard. Clearly it’s up to the Blazers to respond, but these have historically been spots in which Lillard has faded in, not being able to step up and carry the load. And who else on Portland will step up to carry the load if Lillard can’t? I think this one sets up as a defensive affair, with Denver doing everything it can to control the tempo from the outset. Additionally note that the Nuggets have seen the total go under in three of four already this year off a win by ten points or more over a division rival, while Portland has seen the total dip under in three of four this year in trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more vs. an opponent. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 106-102 Blazers. |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/76ers under (9* TOTAL EXPRESS) Philadelphia is playing for its life here. After taking Game 1, Philadelphia has struggled with consistency and it now finds itself in a 3-2 hole. Toronto would clearly love nothing more than to end it here and now after taking Game 5 125-89. Where is Philadelphia’s scoring going to suddenly come from? Big man Joel Embiid is struggling with injury and sickness and for the most part Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons have been completely ineffective. The last thing Toronto wants to do is to turn this into a track meet, instead I predict the visitors to come out and to blanket the 76ers once again from start to finish. Over the last ten years Toronto has had difficulty closing out series like this, but with Kawhi Leonard, perhaps that’s going to change this season. Regardless, from a situational stand point I think this one definitely sets up as a defensive affair, but also note that Toronto has seen the total go under in eight of ten so far in the playoffs anyways. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Raptors. |
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05-08-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Rockets (10*) So far home floor advantage has meant everything in this series. But other than Kevin Durant, the Warriors have looked very “off” over the last two games and I think that Houston has a legitimate shot at stealing Game 5 outright. The Clippers won two games at Oracle Arena remember in the opening series. The Rockets made the necessary defensive adjustments and both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are struggling with consistency right now. James Harden and company though have definitely improved dramatically on both ends of the court and I see no reason that that momentum won’t be carried over here. Consider as well that Houston is 4-0 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Golden State is only 9-18 ATS this year as a home favorite in the same points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-109 Warriors. |
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05-08-19 | Celtics +9.5 v. Bucks | 91-116 | Loss | -104 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (8*) I played on the Bucks and the under in Game 4, but in Game 5 I’m back on the hungry underdog Celtics. Milwaukee has played with better chemistry all season and it’s bench has severely outplayed Boston’s so far. The Celtics have gotten an atrocious shooting performance from guard Kyrie Irving over the last three games, but I have a very hard time seeing the All Star being held down for a fourth straight contest. The Celtics are loaded with talent and experience and I simply can’t see them going down without a fight here. The Bucks are in unchartered territory and it’s yet to be seen if they can step up in a situation like this and deliver a decisive knock out blow. I think the stage is now set for a very competitive battle. Note as well that Boston is 4-1 ATS this year still as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while the Bucks are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 after two or more straight road victories. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Bucks. |
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05-08-19 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 218 | 91-116 | Win | 102 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Celtics/Bucks under (8*) I had a play on the Bucks and the under in Game 4, and while I’m going against Milwaukee in this one, I do believe we’re going to see another tight, lower-scoring defensive battle in Game 5. This is a trap game for the Bucks after two straight wins on the road and with a 3-1 series lead. It remains to be seen if this team is going to be able to close out in this situation and I certainly don’t expect the Celtics to go down without a fight. This one has “war” written all over it as I expect everything to be contended, from the opening tip until the final horn. The numbers support our theory as well, as note that Boston has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 after playing two straight at home, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip under in 14 of its last 22 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. This number is high in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Bucks. |
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05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 98-124 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) This has been a back and forth series. The Nuggets lost in quadruple OT in Game 3, only to then bounce back and steal another high-scoring affair in Game 4 to even the series. After back-to-back “marathons,” I believe a much more defensive affair in Game 5. Especially with the shift in venue to the thin Denver air. This one sets up beautifully as a lower-scoring under from a situational angle, but also note that Portland has seen the total dip under in 13 of its last 21 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Denver has seen the total go under in four of five this year off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Denver. |
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05-07-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-125 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This has been a very competitive series and I expect nothing different in Game 5. Toronto earned the 101-96 win last time out behind 39 points from Kawhi Leonard. In Game 3 Philadelphia star Joel Embiid had 30 points, ten boards and five blocks in the 76ers 116-95 victory. Leonard has been incredible so far, but one has to wonder how much gas he has left in the tank? The rest of the Raptors have been poor and it’s the opening that Philadelphia needs to once again take control of this series. Philadelphia’s role players have also struggled at times, but I still think that Philadelphia features the deeper and more skilled scoring talent. Additionally note that Philadelphia already 4-1 ATS this year off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, while Toronto is only 20-22 ATS this season after a game where it covered the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Raptors. |
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05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10*) Houston is back in this series after its OT win in Game 3. Clearly the last thing Houston can do is take the foot off the gas in Game 3. I’m expecting a very similar style of contest in Game 4 (note I had the over in Game 3). With the home side pushing the pace from the opening tip until the final horn, the Warriors will be forced to match pace with that style of game play. It sets up great as a high-scoring shootout from a situational stand point. Look for these two offensive clubs to play to another “barn burner” in Game 4 and play the over. T.M. Prediction: 117-115 Rockets. |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 221 | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Celtics under (8*) After dropping Game 1, it’s been all Milwaukee in this series, but with their backs against the wall, I believe we can expect the home side to double down on the defensive side tonight. This one has more the feel of a slower paced “chess match” than a run-and-gun “shootout.” Boston has also seen the total go under in 12 of its last 20 when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Bucks. |
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05-06-19 | Bucks +1.5 v. Celtics | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Bucks (8*) Milwaukee came out flat in Game 1, but since then it’s made the necessary adjustments and now it’s the Celtics who are on the ropes. Boston is having difficulty with offensive consistency and think the Bucks can smell the blood in the water. With a chance to take a strangle hold on this series before heading back home for Game 5, I think the visitors lay everything on the line here. Note as we’ll that Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS this year as a road underdog of six points or less, while Boston is 8-11 ATS this year in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Bucks. |
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05-05-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 210 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers over (10*) This doesn’t have to be an extremely high-scoring game (like Portland’s four OT Game 3 victory), to go “over” this very low number. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting. While most likely are thinking that these two teams will come in “gassed” after the Game 3 “marathon,” I believe these offenses are finally just “warming up!” Both teams are in unchartered territory and with the Warriors looking more susceptible right now than at any other time over the last five years, the Western Conference is up for grabs at this point. These are two young/hungry teams and I think fatigue is an over-rated factor here. And the numbers support that theory, as note that Denver has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 17 in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of ten already this season off a no-cover where it still won SU as the favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Blazers. |
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05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +1.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (8*) I got down early on this one, before the Raptors got the news about the Pascal Sikiam injury, but regardless, I think Philadelphia will look to deliver the (near) knock out blow here. Despite losing Game 1, the 76ers have been dominant defensively in this series, holding the Raptors to just 98 PPG. Toronto was the sixth highest scoring team in the league in the regular season, but it’s had difficulties with consistency on the offensive end of the floor since the playoffs started. Philadelphia is healthy, its firing on all cylinders on both ends and it has the home floor advantage. Perhaps Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the floor, but Toronto’s lack of talent is clear in this series. I’m banking on a blowout. T.M. Prediction: 119-113 Philadelphia |
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05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers OVER 214.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/76ers over (8*) Toronto is suddenly on the ropes. I have a play on the 76ers as well in this three-game report, but clearly the Raptors are going to have to push the pace here as they try to snap out of their offensive doldrums. The 76ers would love nothing more than to push the pace though and with the home side indeed looking to deliver the second to last nail in the coffin, I definitely think that Game 4 sets up great as a high-scoring “shootout.” Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 119-113 Philadelphia. |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 83 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) Even the most casual NBA fan knows the story lines and the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, so breaking down individual player match ups is pretty much pointless in my opinion. Golden State dominated the first two games of this series at home, but with the shift to Houston, I’m expecting a much more wide open affair here. Clearly the Rockets are going to be looking to push the pace from start to finish as they try to turn the momentum around in this series. Golden State was surprisingly good defensively vs. Houston at home, but I believe it’ll struggle to duplicate that effort on the road. The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that Golden State has seen the total go over the number in 20 of 31 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total go over in six of eight when playing with double revenge this year. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Warriors. |
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05-03-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215.5 | 137-140 | Win | 100 | 37 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers over (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The series shifts to Portland after each team split out in Denver. The Nuggets looked great in Game 1 and poor in Game 2. The Blazers looked poor in Game 1 and great in Game 2. The playoffs is all about making adjustments. That’s the same when it comes to wagering on the playoffs as well. While each team has looked inconsistent at times already in this series, I’m expecting a much more efficient and faster paced Game 3. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Denver has seen the total go over the number in six of its last seven revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, while Portland has seen the total go over in 22 of 38 as a home favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Nuggets. |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 58 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Celtics over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Celtics blew out the Bucks behind a great defensive performance in Game 1, before Milwaukee returned the favor in Game 2. While the Game 2 total did sneak over the number, This series so far hasn’t seen any big time offensive fireworks, but I believe that’s about to change here. Milwaukee will obviously be looking to push the pace again here after its 123-102 Game 2 victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 29 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. Milwaukee had 20 3-pointers in Game 2 and I’m expecting a duplicate game-plan in Game 3 from the visiting side. Kyrie Irving looked great in Game 1 for Boston and poor in Game 2. With the shift in venue, we can expect the C’s best player to return to form here as well. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 119-118 Milwaukee. |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (10* GAME OF MONTH) After getting blown out in Game 1 the under 76ers earned the split with a dominant performance in Game 2 and I believe they’ll carry that confidence and momentum over into another small upset in Game 3 in friendly confines. Toronto shot only 36.3 percent from the floor and 27 percent from range in Monday’s loss. Philadelphia is deep and it earned the Game 2 win despite big man Joel Embiid pretty much being ineffective. With the shift in venue, I think Embiid has his biggest performance yet. Note that Toronto is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less and just 7-8 ATS when playing with two days rest, while Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS this year off a road win vs. a division rival. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 76ers. |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 217 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Denver won 121-113. I’m expecting another higher-scoring affair in Game 2 as well as the Blazers will look to get out and push the pace from start to finish. Denver looked great though after its seven games opening round victory over the Spurs in Game 1 and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that it won’t carry that momentum over here. Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver in Game 1 with 37 points. Portland got 34 points from Damian Lillard and it’ll need a similar effort here if it hopes to earn a coveted split. Portland has seen the total go over in seven of ten off a loss vs. a division rival this year, while Denver has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 20 after playing two straight home games. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 120-117 Nuggets. |
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04-30-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 218 | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 37 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Warriors over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I had a play on the over in Game 1 and while that contest failed to eclipse the posted number, I think that the situation and the trends definitely now point to a higher-scoring shootout in Game 2. Houston was playing from behind all night in Game 1 and if it doesn’t want to return home in an 0-2 hole, clearly it’s going to have to make some major adjustments. Golden State surprised me defensively, but I think the Warriors will have their hands full this time with a Rockets team which I definitely expect to push the pace from start to finish. And the numbers/trends support our theory, as note that Houston has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total go over in 19 of its last 29 when leading in a playoff series. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 118-112 Warriors. |
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04-30-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) I had a play on Boston in Game 1 and I think it has a legitimate shot at pulling off the outright upset in Game 2 as well. If you didn’t get a chance to read my Game 1 analysis, do so now as the logic behind that play for the most part also directly applies to this one: I think Game 1 is going to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Celtics averaged 99.3 PPG in their series win over the Pacers, while allowing only 91.8. Kyrie Irving led the Celtics with 22.5 points, 4.5 boards and 7.8 assists per game. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG in its series win over the Pistons, while allowing 98. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for the Bucks with 26.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Note though that Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road, while Milwaukee is a poor 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 when playing on three or more days of rest. I think the Celtics’ depth and experience will keep this series and especially Game 1 competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-113 Boston. |
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04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10*) This is an interesting series, as two teams which are accustomed to either missing the playoffs entirely, or which inevitably go out early in the second round, now go head-to-head in Mile High in the second round. The Blazers haven’t played since Tuesday though and I think that rest is going to lead to rust after their five-game series win over the Thunder. Both teams have been exceptional defensively to this point and I expect those trends to carry over here. Portland comes in averaging 111 PPG and allowing 105.2 in the playoffs, while Denver is averaging 105.1 points and allowing 103.1. The under is 7-3-1 in the Blazers last ten road games and all signs point to that being added to right here. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 106-103 Nuggets. |
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04-29-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (8* 76ers) The 76ers got in an early hole in Game 1 and were never able to recover, but I think the visitors will at the very least take this one right down to the wire. The 76ers averaged 122 points in their series win over the Nets, while allowing 110.8. Toronto has been getting the job done defensively so far in the playoffs, allowing only 92.5 PPG. Overall though the Raptors are averaging just 106.7 PPG. The playoffs are all about making adjustments. This has been a matchup problem for Philadelphia, but I think the 76ers’ depth keeps this one competitive late. Note as well that Philly is 8-1 ATS this year off a loss vs. a division rival, while the Raptors are only 21-23 as a home favorite this season. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Raptors. |
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04-29-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Raptors under (8*) The Raptors took Game 1, but I think they’ll have a much more difficult time in Game 2. Philadelphia will obviously be risking life and limb as it tries to earn the coveted split. So far Philadelphia is averaging 117.2 PPG, while allowing 110.8. Toronto is averaging only 106.7 PPG, while conceding just 92.5. The 76ers managed only 95 points in Game 1. Note as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 27 this year off a loss vs. a division rival. Toronto has seen the total go under in four of five after three straight wins by ten points or more. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Raptors. |
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04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Warriors over (10* TOTAL TRADE MARK) Golden State struggled with offensive consistency vs. the Clippers at times in the first round, but I think it’ll have the foot on the gas in Game 1 vs. the Rockets. And for Houston it’s an opportunity to finish some unfinished business. The Rockets had a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Warriors last year, but an injury to guard Chris Paul in Game 5 saw the Rockets then go on to lose three straight. The Rockets scored only 89 points per game over those last two games, so clearly they’ll be out to send a message as well. The stage is now set for an epic battle and I expect that to translate into a high-scoring blowout. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 127-120 Warriors. |
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04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 121 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* TRADE-MARK) I think Game 1 is going to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Celtics averaged 99.3 PPG in their series win over the Pacers, while allowing only 91.8. Kyrie Irving led the Celtics with 22.5 points, 4.5 boards and 7.8 assists per game. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG in its series win over the Pistons, while allowing 98. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for the Bucks with 26.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Note though that Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road, while Milwaukee is a poor 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 when playing on three or more days of rest. I think the Celtics’ depth and experience will keep this series and especially Game 1 competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Bucks. |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets under (10* BLACK-LABEL) I had a play on the “over” in Game 6, but I believe that Game 7 sets up as a defensive affair. These are in fact two of the better defensive clubs in the Western Conference and with so much on the line, I’m expecting each to double down on that end of the court. This has been a back and forth series, with each side looking great at times and very poor in others. The numbers/trends however support our theory though, as note that SA has seen the total dip under in eight of 12 this year after a blowout win by 15 points or more, while Denver has seen the total go under in 12 of 20 this season in trying got revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 100-95 Nuggets. |
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04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -5.5 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (8* MONEY-MAKER) Both teams did well in the first round. Each lost their respective first games, but then recover to sweep the next four. The 76ers averaged 122.4 points and allowed 111.4 vs. the Nets and they are led by Joel Embiid with 24.8 points and 13.5 boards per game. Embiid is going to have his hands full with veteran Raptors big men Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol. Toronto has to be feeling confident here as well as it took three of four in the regular season series. Toronto averaged 106.4 PPG in the win over the Nets, while allowing only 92. Additionally note that Philadelphia is just 19-24 ATS on the road this year and only 8-16 ATS after a win by ten points or more, while Toronto is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 after a covers as a double digit favorite. This is a bad matchup for Embiid and company. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 117-107 Raptors. |
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