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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-15-18 | LSU v. Auburn -10 | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (154) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (153). THE SITUATION: Auburn (2-0) remained undefeated so far this season after they crushed Alabama State last Saturday by a 63-9 score. LSU (2-0) is also undefeated so far this year after they shutout Southeast Louisiana last week by a 31-0 score as 41.5-point favorites. |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite. |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 45 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite. |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders OVER 47.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign. |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +6 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) is one of the top favorites to reach the Super Bowl this season after their 11-5 campaign last year. Oakland (0-0) looks to recapture past glory by bringing back head coach Jon Gruden after their disappointing 6-10 season last year. |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions -6.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign. |
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09-09-18 | Bears +9 v. Packers | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (477) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season. |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season. |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (470) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (469). Kansas City (0-0) begins the Patrick Mahomes era at quarterback this afternoon after they made a change at quarterback after another early exit in the playoffs after a 10-6 regular season campaign. Los Angeles (0-0) hopes to get off to a faster start this year after they finished 9-7 last year after enduring a horrendous start to the 2017 season under new head coach Anthony Lynn. |
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (456) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (455). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) takes the field again after they lost in Philadelphia to the Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship Game. San Francisco (0-0) has renewed optimism after winning their final five games to finish 6-10 last year. |
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09-09-18 | Bills v. Ravens -7.5 | 3-47 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (460) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (459). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) enters this season with a sense of urgency after missing the playoffs despite a 9-7 season. Buffalo (0-0) seized the Ravens’ final slot in the AFC playoffs in the final week of the season when they ended the year with a 9-7 mark and eked them out in the tie-breaker before losing a tight game in Jacksonville the next week in the AFC Wildcard round. |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants +3 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in the AFC Championship Game in which they lost in New England by a 24-20 score. New York (0-0) has undertaken a new start after crashing and burning last year with a 3-13 record. |
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09-08-18 | Rice v. Hawaii OVER 67.5 | Top | 29-43 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Rice Owls (397) and the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (398). THE SITUATION: Rice (1-1) is already playing their third game of the season after they lost to Houston last week at home by a 45-27 score as a big 25.5-point underdog. Hawai’i (2-0) is also playing their third game of the year after they upset Navy at home last week by a 59-41 score as a 13.5-point underdog. |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
At 10:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (1-0) began the Herm Edwards coaching era in strong fashion as they crushed UTSA by a 49-7 score last Saturday as a 17-point favorite. Michigan State (1-0) looked wobbly at home last week as they outlasted Utah State by a 38-31 score despite being a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday. |
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09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford -4.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). THE SITUATION: USC (1-0) enters this game coming off a 43-21 win over UNLV last week as a 24.5-point favorite. Stanford (1-0) also won their opening game of the season with their 31-10 win over San Diego State as a 14-point favorite last week. |
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09-08-18 | Cincinnati v. Miami-OH +1 | Top | 21-0 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-0) began their season by pulling the upset on the road at UCLA last Saturday by a 26-17 score as a 14-point underdog. Miami (OH) (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 35-28 upset loss at home to Marshall as a 1-point favorite last week. This game will be played at the home of the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium for these neighboring Ohio rivals. |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10 | 41-17 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (348) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (347). THE SITUATION: Georgia (1-0) opened their season last week with an easy 45-0 shutout win over Austin Peay. South Carolina (1-0) also impressed with a 49-15 win at home over Coastal Carolina last Saturday as a 31-point favorite. |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 45 | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs. |
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09-06-18 | Falcons +3 v. Eagles | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs. |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55.5 | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) and the Florida State Seminoles (220). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (0-0) enters this season coming off a 9-4 campaign that concluded with a 30-21 loss to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. Florida State (0-0) looks to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season that ended on a positive note when they crushed Southern Miss by a 42-13 score. |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (0-0) enters this season coming off a 9-4 campaign that concluded with a 30-21 loss to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. Florida State (0-0) looks to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season that ended on a positive note when they crushed Southern Miss by a 42-13 score. |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL -3 v. LSU | 17-33 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (218). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) returns to the field after the finished last year with a 10-3 record after a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin. LSU (0-0) completed a 9-4 campaign last season with a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame. This game is played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in the home of the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas. |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU UNDER 49 | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) and the LSU Tigers (218). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) returns to the field after the finished last year with a 10-3 record after a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin. LSU (0-0) completed a 9-4 campaign last season with a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame. This game is played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in the home of the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas. |
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09-01-18 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Vanderbilt | 7-35 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 24 m | Show | |
No play -- I mistakenly loaded another game into this Middle Tennessee slot. Sorry about the error. Thanks, Frank |
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09-01-18 | Michigan -1 v. Notre Dame | 17-24 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (211) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). THE SITUATION: Michigan (0-0) closed out a disappointing 8-5 campaign last year with a listless 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) comes off a 21-17 win over LSU to conclude a 10-3 season in last year’s Citrus Bowl. |
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09-01-18 | SMU v. North Texas -3 | 23-46 | Win | 100 | 1 h 44 m | Show | |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (182) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (181). THE SITUATION: North Texas (0-0) begins their season coming off a 9-5 campaign that culminated in a 50-30 loss to Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. SMU (0-0) was 7-6 last season after an upset 51-10 loss they suffered at the hands of Louisiana Tech. |
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09-01-18 | Washington +3 v. Auburn | 16-21 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (193) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (194). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) begins their season coming off a 10-3 campaign that ended in a disappointing 35-28 loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. Auburn (0-0) saw their National Championship aspirations thwarted by a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship before they limped through their bowl game in an uninspired 34-27 loss to Central Florida in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming +3 | Top | 41-19 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (206) plus the points versus the Washington State (205). THE SITUATION: Washington State Cougars (0-0) kicks off their season coming off an 8-5 campaign that concluded with a 42-17 loss to Michigan State in the Holiday Bowl. Wyoming (1-0) played last Saturday in a dominant 29-7 win at New Mexico State where they were 5.5-point favorites. |
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09-01-18 | Texas -13.5 v. Maryland | 29-34 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (173) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (174). THE SITUATION: Texas (0-0) enters this game coming off a 7-6 campaign that concluded with a 33-16 win over Missouri in the Texas Bowl. Maryland (0-0) comes off a disappointing 4-8 campaign. While the Terrapins are the technical home team for this contest, the game will be played on a technical neutral field at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland which is the home of the Washington Redskins. |
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08-31-18 | Colorado State +8 v. Colorado | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (149) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (148). Colorado State (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a disappointing effort last week in their 43-34 upset loss at home to Hawai’i last Saturday despite being 17-point favorites in that game. Colorado (0-0) makes their debut this season after suffering a 5-7 campaign last season. |
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08-31-18 | Army v. Duke UNDER 46.5 | 14-34 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (159) and the Duke Blue Devils (160). THE SITUATION: Army (0-0) enters the new season coming off a triumphant 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 42-35 victory over San Diego State in the Armed Forces Bowl. Wake Forest (0-0) comes off a 7-6 season that ended with a 36-14 win over Northern Illinois in the Quick Lane Bowl. |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan +5.5 | 55-42 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (144) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (143). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (0-0) begins their season coming off a lackluster 4-8 campaign last year. Western Michigan (0-0) was 6-6 last year and also missed out on a bowl like the Orange. |
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08-30-18 | Northwestern v. Purdue -1 | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (136) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (135). THE SITUATION: Purdue (0-0) finished with a 7-6 record last year after they defeated Arizona by a 38-35 score in the Foster Farms Bowl. Northwestern (0-0) concluded a strong 10-3 season with their 24-23 victory over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl. |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest v. Tulane +8 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (140) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (139). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (0-0) comes off an 8-5 season last year that culminated by 55-52 win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Tulane (0-0) is looking to reach a bowl game this year after a 5-7 campaign in 2018. |
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08-25-18 | Wyoming v. New Mexico State UNDER 45 | Top | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (291) and the New Mexico State Aggies (292). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-0) closed out last season by winning their second straight bowl game when they defeated Central Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 37-14 score. New Mexico State (0-0) also ended their season on a high-note when they upset Utah State in the Arizona Bowl by a 26-20 score. |
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08-25-18 | Hawaii v. Colorado State -14 | 43-34 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (294) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Warriors (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) closed out last season losing their last five games to conclude a disappointing 3-9 campaign. Colorado State (0-0) comes off a 7-6 season that ended in disappointment when they were upset as 5.5-point favorites to Marshall in the New Mexico Bowl. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -5 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -110 | 254 h 46 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Everything for Philadelphia (15-3) went right after falling behind in the NFC Championship Game after they fell behind by a 7-0 score as they then rattled off 38 unanswered points to upset the Vikings by a 38-7 score. Their momentum was triggered by a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown that tied the score at 7-7 and settled down Nick Foles and the Eagles offense while also igniting the crowd. We had Minnesota in that game — and, frankly, I am largely dismissing that result as the outcome of two outlier performances. The Vikings probably played their worst game of the season as they admitted in retrospect that they were emotionally spent after their dramatic last-second win over the Saints the previous week. Philadelphia also played one of their best games of the season — and I am expecting a big letdown for this team after such a dominant performance. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. But Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as a home dog. Remember, this Eagles team squeaked by Atlanta in their previous playoff game due in large measure to the ineffective Falcons Red Zone offense this season. Despite how good Foles’ playoff numbers are (that we will hear about for two weeks), the Eagles scored only 15 points against Atlanta despite being at home. Over their last three games, Philly is scoring just 17.7 PPG while averaging a mere 336.3 total YPG. In Foles’ first four games since taking over for Carson Wentz, he was Checkdown Charlie who completed just 2 of his 15 passes of more than 20 yards in the air for a miserable 13.8 Passer Rating. Foles exploded against Minnesota by completing 4 of 6 passes of 20 or more yards in the air for 172 yards and two TD passes — but I have to credit some of that to the Vikings’ simply being shellshocked during what turned out to be a 38-0 run. Foles looked awful in his final two regular season games. I expect the true Nick Foles is somewhere in the middle of these performances — and that is not in Tom Brady’s dimension. The Philadelphia defense also deserves mention as they have flexed their muscles by allowing just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. Playing on turf might also be an issue for this team after playing on field turf just three times this season. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the faster field turf. Throw-in their lack of recent playoff experience playing away from home and the lack of Super Bowl experience for most of the players and coaches on the staff and this is all new territory for this team. With the back of all the members of this organization knowing that they reached the Super Bowl without QB Carson Wentz, left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks, this team has the profile of a group that may turn out to just be happy to be in the Super Bowl. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots OVER 48 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 253 h 10 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the New England Patriots (102). New England (15-3) reached the Super Bowl with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots offense was slowed down a bit from both Rob Gronkowski’s concussion as well as a questionable fumble call on running back Deion Lewis for what was looking like a touchdown drive midway through the second-half. That game finished below the 46-point total for that game — but New England has still played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the playoffs. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as the number one seed in the playoffs. This offense has been remarkably consistent this season. For the year, they are scoring 28.7 PPG while averaging 393.3 total YPG. In their eight games away from this season, New England is scoring 27.9 PPG while averaging 398.9 total YPG. In their last three contests, the Pats are scoring 28.3 PPG while averaging 370.7 total YPG. And in their twelve games played on field turf this year, New England is scoring 28.4 PPG while generating 392.2 total YPG. In fact, the Patriots have played a decisive 67 of their last 100 games Over the Total when playing on field turf which includes not only their home games but also those away games on turf which is the surface for this Super Bowl in Minnesota. Gronkowski should be able to play in this game with two weeks to get through the concussion protocol (and how high is his normal baseline test that he has to reach anyways?). At full strength, this New England offense is simply loaded with diverse weapons this season. Tom Brady has much more options at his disposal than the one last year that scored 34 points in overtime in their win over the Falcons. SUPER BOWL PROPOSITIONS BETTING CARD. Please note that this Prop Bets Report is only a bonus; the Guarantee policy applies only to the Super Bowl Over part of this Report. Thanks, Frank. Our Best Bet Wager is on the Tom Brady completing more passes than Nick Foles with the line at -3 passes — priced at -170 at Bovada. To be clear, Brady has to complete four more passes than Foles to win this bet (with Brady completing three more passes than Foles pushing the bet). Philadelphia is more anxious to run the football to control the line of scrimmage while burning time off the clock to keep the Patriots offense off the field. New England will pass a bit more for two reasons in addition to that. First, they are going to run more plays on offense because it is highly likely they will operate their no-huddle offense to attempt to thwart the Eagles ability to rotate players on the defensive line. Second, Jim Schwartz’s defense will likely protect the deeper ball which will leave a soft underbelly for 5 to 7 yard passing plays — and Brady has shown a proclivity to be very happy to nickel-and-dime his way down the field with these short passes. I much prefer a Brady-Completions Bet to a Brady-Passing Yards Bet for this reason. Additionally, if the Eagles are winning this game in the second half, they will move to running the ball even more. However, even if the Patriots are winning in the second half, the trust in Brady is so high that they will continue to pass the ball with those short but safe passes. |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 38.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 108 h 40 m | Show | |
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Minnesota (14-3) has won four straight games with their 29-24 win over New Orleans on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. The Vikings have then played 15 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. Additionally, not only has Minnesota played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games but they have played 27 of their last 42 road games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Case Keenum led an offense that generated 493 yards against the Saints defense. Moving forward, they have played a decisive 57 of their last 87 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. |
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01-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -115 | 108 h 14 m | Show |
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Philadelphia (14-3) has won four of their last five games with their 15-10 upset win at home against the Falcons last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Eagles got out their Dog Masks after the game to bask in their pulling the upset against Atlanta — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset win at home as an underdog. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory. The Eagles survived that game despite a -2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they committed at least two more turnovers than their opponent. QB Nick Foles is the reason why this team is an underdog yet again in this game — but it is for good reason. He was solid against the Falcons after completing 23 of 30 passes for 246 yards with no interceptions. But he did not throw a touchdown pass - -and he rushed for -2 yards. Unfortunately for the Eagles, that was probably the most they can expect to get out of their backup QB. Remember that Foles struggled in his previous two starts against Dallas and Oakland — he completed just 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions in those two games combined. The Eagles did use the bye week to redesign their offense by having Foles run the read-option plays that he thrived executing in his one season running the Chip Kelly offense with the Eagles a few years ago. Who knows if the Falcons spent much time preparing for that blast from the past last week in practice — but it is a guarantee that the Mike Zimmer will make sure his team invests a significant amount of time preparing for read-options that other teams like the Cowboys and Panthers also deploy. So the element of surprise for Philadelphia running this offense is gone. Foles sees his effectiveness decline significantly when facing pressure — and he does not do a great job making quick decisions regarding his read progressions with wide receivers. Those are bad qualities to have when facing this ferocious Vikings’ defense. The Eagles are scoring just 11.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging only 256.3 total YPG. The rushing game has not been able to step up to take pressure off Foles. Philadelphia has not rushed for more than 96 yards in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -8.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -104 | 105 h 37 m | Show | |
BRADY WRIST-GATE UPDATE (Friday): The line has moved down to New England in the -7.5 point range with the news that Tom Brady injured his throwing wrist in practice. I released my AFC plays before this took place (taking the Patriots at -8.5). The Patriots’ Beat Writer says that the “chatter” is that Brady injured the area between his thumb forefinger. Brady can still throw but his snaps under center may be limited. Pain is the biggest issue (and he will likely be shot up before kickoff). That all said, in general, I don’t let rumors of injuries sway my handicapping on a game — so my recommendation is to just ride things out (like I am) if you you have already invested in this play. If you have yet to bet, I would jump all over any -7s you can find and be happy with -7.5. I am not letting these rumors diffuse from the strong fundamental play on the Patriots. For those needing a pick me up, I did hear that Brady has, in fact, thrown some passes in practice. It makes sense for the Pats to exhibit extreme caution with their veteran. Brady still benefited from just walking through the Thursday/Friday practices where specific offensive game plans and Red Zone plays were worked on — and many former NFL QBs argued that just walking through those plays to intellectualize them is all Brady really needs. Thanks, Frank. At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Jacksonville (12-6) caught the Steelers looking way ahead to a possible rematch with their arch-nemesis New England last Sunday — and they raced out to a 21-0 lead in Pittsburgh before surviving by a 45-42 score as a 7-point underdog. I do expect this Jaguars team to suffer from an emotional letdown after that upset victory on the road. Not only has this team failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a 28-14 lead at halftime in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after holding at least a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last game. Now this team stays on the road for the fourth time in their last five games which is a dangerous proposition for a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. Some are comparing this team to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants teams that have had success against the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady teams of the Patriots in the playoffs — and Tom Coughlin is an executive with this team with plenty of influence. But those teams had two significant differences with this Jaguars team. First, Blake Bortles has yet to prove he is (even) in the Joe Flacco or Eli Manning class of quarterbacks. Admittedly, he did not turn the ball over last week while completing 14 of 26 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown pass — and this performance earned rave reviews from many NFL pundits who lower than standards when assessing him. Keep in mind that Bortles completed only three passes that traveled in the air more than 10 yards against the Steelers. And Jacksonville was able to never ask Bortles to do too much after racing out to that early lead — helped greatly by yet another defensive touchdown against that Pittsburgh team. Remember that it was just a short week ago when Bortles became just the 5th NFL passer to not generate at least 100 yards in the air in a playoff game since 2006 in that contest with the Bills where he visibly looked uncomfortable to throw the ball downfield. Second, this Jaguars defense is good — but this is not an elite unit like those Giants or Ravens groups. Yes, the Jaguars finished 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yardage (286.1 total YPG) — but check out their strength of schedule. Jacksonville was able to pad their numbers with NFL’s least productive division in terms of offense in the AFC South against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston (they were fortunate to avoid QB DeShaun Watson both times). Throw in additional games against Cleveland, Baltimore in Week Three (that London game when their offense was ravaged with injuries and still finding itself), Cincinnati in Week Seven (when their offensive line was imploding) and then Buffalo in the Wild Card game. Then throw in their first game with the Steelers where they won by a 30-9 score with the benefit of two defensive touchdowns and five interceptions — and they allowed 65 combined points for a measly 6.5 PPG scoring average in those top ten defensive performances. There are six games — representing 33% of their results this year that should raise eyebrows for the wrong reasons: last week against the Steelers where they allowed 42 points and 545 yards of offense; allowing 44 points and 364 yards of offense against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense on December 24th; allowing 27 points and 344 yards of offense led by Blaine Gabbert; allowing 27 points in a loss to the LA Rams on October 15th; allowing 23 points and a whopping 471 yards in a loss to the Jets on October 1st; allowing 37 points and 390 yards of offense to Titans back on September 17th. Of their eighteen games including their two in the playoffs, Jacksonville has played six playoff teams (with the Bills and Steelers’ second-meeting being in the actual playoffs). They are 3-3 overall in those games — but they are allowing 22.2 PPG and 341.7 total YPG in those six contests. Of course, the Jaguars had the benefit of facing the likely two worst teams to make the playoffs in Tennessee (twice) and Buffalo in the Wildcard round. Take away those three games to just assess how this Jaguars defense performed against Pittsburgh (twice) and the LA Rams and the results are simply unimpressive: 26.0 PPG and 388.3 total YPG allowed. Where this Jags’ defense struggles when compares to those Super Bowl winning Ravens and Giants teams that defeated the Brady/Belichick combo is in run defense. Jacksonville ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season by allowing 116.2 rushing YPG. This is where the Patriots will attack. And while the Jaguars held the Steelers to just 83 rushing yards (on only 18 carries with Pittsburgh playing from a big deficit), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -101 | 105 h 37 m | Show |
BRADY WRIST-GATE UPDATE (Friday): The line has moved down to New England to the 45 point total range with the news that Tom Brady injured his throwing wrist in practice. I released my AFC plays before this took place (taking the Over at 46.5). The Patriots’ Beat Writer says that the “chatter” is that Brady injured the area between his thumb forefinger. Brady can still throw but his snaps under center may be limited. Pain is the biggest issue (and he will likely be shot up before kickoff). That all said, in general, I don’t let rumors of injuries sway my handicapping on a game — so my recommendation is to just ride things out (like I am) if you you have already invested in this play. If you have yet to bet, I would jump all over any 45s you can find and be happy with -45.5. I am not letting these rumors diffuse from the strong fundamental play on the Over. For those needing a pick me up, I did hear that Brady has, in fact, thrown some passes in practice. It makes sense for the Pats to exhibit extreme caution with their veteran. Brady still benefited from just walking through the Thursday/Friday practices where specific offensive game plans and Red Zone plays were worked on — and many former NFL QBs argued that just walking through those plays to intellectualize them is all Brady really needs. Thanks, Frank. At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New England Patriots (312). Jacksonville (12-6) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 45-42 upset win at Pittsburgh last Sunday as a 7-point underdog. The Jaguars have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Jags scored a defensive touchdown in that game while enjoying a +2 net turnover margin — and they then played 7 straight games Over the Total after a game where they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin. Jacksonville generated 378 yards of offense in that game — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Jags have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Jacksonville offense is underrated — they ranked 5th in the NFL by scoring 26.1 PPG while ranking 6th by averaging 365.9 total YPG. After last week’s explosion, the Jags are averaging 28.1 PPG when playing on the road. The irony of this team is they are also a bit overrated when it comes to the strength of their defense. They allowed Ben Roethlisberger to pass for 462 yards en route to their 545 total yards of offense for the Steelers — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Jaguars finished 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yardage (286.1 total YPG) — but check out their strength of schedule. Jacksonville was able to pad their numbers with NFL’s least productive division in terms of offense in the AFC South against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston (they were fortunate to avoid QB DeShaun Watson both times). Throw in additional games against Cleveland, Baltimore in Week Three (that London game when their offense was ravaged with injuries and still finding itself), Cincinnati in Week Seven (when their offensive line was imploding) and then Buffalo in the Wild Card game. Then throw in their first game with the Steelers where they won by a 30-9 score with the benefit of two defensive touchdowns and five interceptions — and they allowed 65 combined points for a measly 6.5 PPG scoring average in those top ten defensive performances. There are six games — representing 33% of their results this year that should raise eyebrows for the wrong reasons: last week against the Steelers where they allowed 42 points and 545 yards of offense; allowing 44 points and 364 yards of offense against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense on December 24th; allowing 27 points and 344 yards of offense led by Blaine Gabbert; allowing 27 points in a loss to the LA Rams on October 15th; allowing 23 points and a whopping 471 yards in a loss to the Jets on October 1st; allowing 37 points and 390 yards of offense to Titans back on September 17th. Of their eighteen games including their two in the playoffs, Jacksonville has played six playoff teams (with the Bills and Steelers’ second-meeting being in the actual playoffs). They are 3-3 overall in those games — but they are allowing 22.2 PPG and 341.7 total YPG in those six contests. Of course, the Jaguars had the benefit of facing the likely two worst teams to make the playoffs in Tennessee (twice) and Buffalo in the Wildcard round. Take away those three games to just assess how this Jaguars defense performed against Pittsburgh (twice) and the LA Rams and the results are simply unimpressive: 26.0 PPG and 388.3 total YPG allowed. Where this Jags’ defense struggles when compares to those Super Bowl winning Ravens and Giants teams that defeated the Brady/Belichick combo is in run defense. Jacksonville ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season by allowing 116.2 rushing YPG. This is where the Patriots will attack. |
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01-14-18 | Saints +5.5 v. Vikings | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (307) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (308). New Orleans (12-5) proved their playoff experience mettle last week in a gritty 31-26 victory over Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite. QB Drew Brees led an offense that generated 410 yards against a very good Panthers defense despite having the football for only 26:11 minutes in that game. The Saints have not paid off betting tickets in two straight weeks — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. The conventional wisdom regarding this team stubbornly remains that they are not as good on the road as they are at home in the Superdome. While they were 4-4 away from home this season, they outscored their opponents by +7.7 PPG due to an improved defense that holds their home hosts to just 18.2 PPG along with only 326.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and this includes covering the point spread in eight of their last nine road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. Additionally, they are a decisive 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. New Orleans is a very dangerous underdog in this situation — as it is, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, this Saints team will be playing with revenge on their mind after their 29-19 loss to the Vikings in the opening week of the season. This New Orleans team has improved on both sides of the ball since then — led mainly by the continued improvement of the rookies they drafted on both offense and defense. The Saints are much more balanced on offense now than they were in those salad days of early September — and they have will have seven different starters on the field today than they did in that opening game). Rookie running back Alvin Kamara ran the ball only 8 times for 18 yards with Adrian Peterson still on the team then taking away 6 carries while being limited in passing situations as a receiver and blocker. This New Orleans team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge. Additionally, keep in mind that this Saints team has defeated five teams that made the playoffs this season — as opposed to the Vikings who beat three teams that made the playoffs (with New Orleans being one of those teams back in Week One). |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings OVER 46 | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
SUBSCRIBERS, PLEASE NOTE: I have upgraded this play to a 20* play. Thanks, Frank. At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (307) and the Minnesota Vikings (308). New Orleans (12-5) has won three of their last four games with their 31-26 win over Carolina last week as a 6.5-point favorite. The Saints have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. New Orleans generated 410 yards of offense against a tough Panthers defense — and they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Saints defense did surrender 413 yards of offense themselves with Cam Newton passing for 306 of those yards. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. That game with the Panthers finished above the 47.5 point total — and that makes it 9 of their last 11 games that the Saints have played a game Over the Total when the number was listed in the 42.5 to 49 point range. New Orleans has also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs. This is a rematch of the Week One meeting between these two teams which was won by the Vikings by a 29-19 score. The Saints have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 29 points. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | 45-42 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (306) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (305). Pittsburgh (13-3) has experienced an interesting week with Le’Veon Bell publicly speculating about sitting out next season given a potential contract dispute while other players already discussing a possible matchup with the Patriots next week. But I think that any chance of this team taking the Jaguars lightly in practice this week was eliminated when they got crushed by this Jacksonville team back on October 8th by a 30-9 score despite being a 7-point favorite at home. Ben Roethlisberger certainly remembers that game as he threw 5 interceptions in that defeat — so he has much to make up for in this rematch. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. Pittsburgh has a significant experience advantage in this contest. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. The Steelers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games. On the plus side, Pittsburgh does look to get wide receiver Antonio Brown on the field — although it remains unclear how effective he can be with that calf. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers UNDER 41.5 | 45-42 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 60 m | Show | |
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (305) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (306). Jacksonville (11-6) flexed their muscles on defense last week with their 10-3 win over Buffalo. The Jaguars held the Bills to just 263 yards of offense in that game. Jacksonville was 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed and total defense as they hold their opponents to just 15.9 PPG along with only 284.8 total YPG (after last week)— and this defense travels as they are holding their home hosts to only 15.4 PPG and 288.0 total YPG which is right in line with their seasonal numbers. The formula for success in this game is defense and running the football. Blake Bortles threw the ball only 23 times last week while often looking like he lacked confidence. He completed 12 of those balls for 87 yards making him just the fourth quarterback since 2006 to not pass for at least 100 yards in a playoff game. The Jaguars have to burn time off the clock and shorten the length of this game — and that helps our Under play. They failed to cover the 8-point spread last week against Buffalo — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, this team has played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 9 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Jaguars have played 8 of these games Under the Total. |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots -13 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 41 h 53 m | Show | |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). New England (13-3) has been a favorite laying at least 13 points at home in the AFC Playoffs three times in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era — and all were in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. They have covered the point spread twice — defeating the Texans by a 34-16 score as 16-point favorites last season as well as beating Denver by a 45-10 score as 14-point favorites back in 2012. Their lone point spread defeat in a similar Playoff situation was back on 2008 when they “only” beat Jacksonville by a 31-20 score when they were laying 13.5-points. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when laying more than 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 14 points. So while laying close to two touchdowns can be risky business in the NFL, backing Brady and Belchick in that situation has been profitable. New England has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against AFC opponents. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Playoffs including their last four games at home in the Playoffs. |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the New England Patriots (304). New England (13-3) has been a favorite laying at least 13 points three times in the AFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The results were as follows: a 34-16 win over Houston last year with the Total at 44; a 45-10 win over Denver in 2012 with the Total set at 50; a 31-20 win over Jacksonville with the Total set at 51. While the Total was 2-0-1 for those three games, all three games saw at least 50 combined points scored with the Patriots averaging 36.7 PPG over that stretch. If New England approaches that number in this game, then this game should go safely Over the Total. The Patriots enter this game with momentum as they followed up their 37-16 win over Buffalo in Week 16 with a 26-6 victory over the Jets to close out their regular season. New England has then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by double-digits. The Patriots are averaging 29.4 PPG at home this season — and they have not only played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total at home but they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, New England has played 6 straight playoff games at home Over the Total. And in their last 8 games in the AFC Divisional Playoffs, the Over is 7-0-1. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 59 h 19 m | Show | |
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (301). Philadelphia (13-3) is the first top seed in the Divisional Round of the playoffs to be listed as a home underdog in the history of the NFL — and this will certainly add more fuel to their fire in this game. The Eagles are getting the points in this game in large part because they are facing a surging Falcons team that reached the Super Bowl last year. But QB Nick Foles has struggled in his last two starts taking over under center after the season-ending injury to Carson Wentz. The Eagles struggled on national television on Christmas night in their 19-10 win over the Raiders — and the offense was listless in Week 17 of the regular season when they could not score a point against the Cowboys in their 6-0 loss at home to Dallas a 4-point underdog (with that underdog status predicated on the team benching starters for much of that game). Don’t be surprised if this Philadelphia team comes out and plays their best game of the season since the Wentz injury. The Eagles defense remains loaded as they showed even with the offense struggling. Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 18.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the league by allowing just 306.5 total YPG. On their home field, the Eagles see those numbers drop of just 13.4 PPG along with 280.6 total YPG. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Foles does struggle when facing pressure — like most quarterbacks. But he has plenty of starting experience and has thrived as a starting quarterback when given time to pass. Look for the Eagles coaching staff to design a very good game plan to help put Foles in a position to win. This Falcons pass rush is solid but certainly not spectacular. They were 13th in the league by averaging 2.44 sacks per game. Over their last six games in this crucial stretch of the season, Atlanta has seen their sack total drop to just 2.0 sacks per game. Foles will get help from the Eagles rushing attack behind Jay Ajayi and LaGarrette Blount who helped the team finished 3rd in the NFL by averaging 132.2 rushing YPG. Philadelphia was 7-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles OVER 41 | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 31 m | Show |
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (301) and the Philadelphia Eagles (302). Atlanta (11-6) has now played six straight games Under the Total given the steadily improved play of their defense combining with too many bettors not catching up to the reality that this Falcons offense is not as powerful this year as the one last year that led the NFL by scoring 33.8 PPG. This Total opened in the 43.5 range and has been bet down to 41 — and that is simply too low for how this game will likely play out. For starters, both these teams have amped up the number of offensive plays they are generating per game. Atlanta leads all teams left in the Playoffs by averaging 68.0 offensive plays per game over their last four contests — and that is well above their 62.5 offensive plays per game average for the regular season which was just 25th in the league. They now face an Eagles team that opponents passed the ball against in 61.4% of their offensive plays which was 3rd most this season. It stands to reason that the Falcons will emphasize the pass in this game considering that this Philadelphia team led the NFL by allowing a 79.2 rushing YPG. Atlanta behind Matt Ryan has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the Playoffs. The Over is also 11-4-2 in the Falcons’ last 17 games in the month of January. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Falcons come off their 26-13 upset win in Los Angeles as a 6.5-point underdog against the Rams last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after upset win as a road underdog. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (152) in the National Championship Game. Georgia (13-1) earned one of the biggest victories in their school’s program history with their 54-48 epic overtime victory over Oklahoma last Monday. But the fact that this history does not include championship game experience may play a role in how this showdown plays out. The Bulldogs have an inferiority complex with the Crimson Tide which will likely rear its ugly head in this game. Most of the teams in the SEC are insecure relative to the Alabama football program. Georgia fired Mark Richt despite him being one of their most successful coaches in their history because he was not leading them into enough championship games — as if the program was rife with those opportunities before they arrived. This is a football culture that still considers the Hershel Walker era as a recent event. The school tried to model themselves off the Crimson Tide program when they replaced Richt with Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. While Smart has done a good job with the program, he lacks the pedigree and certainly the experience to out-coach his mentor in Nick Saban. Throw in the lack of playoff experience this roster has (as compared to that Clemson team that faced Alabama for the third straight time in the last three years in the playoffs) along with a true freshman at quarterback in Jake Fromm — and the results look like a team happy to be in this National Championship Game but also with likely significant doubts that they can pull off this upset. The Bulldogs showed some weaknesses in their win over the Sooners. Oklahoma generated a whopping 531 yards against what had been considered a stout Georgia defense. 289 of those yards were in the air — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Georgia has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points while their opponent also scored at least 30 points. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia OVER 44 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 89 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) and the Georgia Bulldogs (152). Alabama (12-1) flexed their muscles on defense last Monday by holding Clemson to just 188 yards of offense en route to their 24-6 win over the Tigers. Considering that the Crimson Tide generated just 261 yards of offense against the Clemson defense, it might appear that the Under is the preferred totals play when they face off against another Top-Ten defense in this Alabama team. But each game has its own internal narrative. The third contest in the Crimson Tide-Tigers trilogy played out as a defensive battle. Don’t be surprised if this Alabama-Georgia showdown between two teams of similar compositions ends up seeing much more offense — and with a Total set in just the mid-40s. The Crimson Tide have seen the Over go 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their lsat game. And while Alabama has played three straight games that finished Under the Total, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games that finished Under the Total. Remember that while this Crimson Tide team has the nation’s top scoring defense (11.1 PPG) and total defense (252.4 YPG), they are no slouches on offense either. Alabama was 12th in the nation by scoring 37.9 PPG while averaging 449.7 total YPG (27th in the FBS). And remember that these offensive numbers are a little lower than they could be since their outstanding defense helped them earn comfortable leads without putting up Oklahoma-like numbers. An elite defense is nothing new for a Nick Saban-coached team. Yet they have played 10 of their last 14 Bowl games Over the Total — and this includes playing five of their last six games in the month of January Over the Total. |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +7 v. Saints | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (108). Carolina (11-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in their 22-10 loss in Atlanta as a 5-point underdog. The Panthers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, while Carolina surrendered 311 passing yards to Matt Ryan in that game, they are then 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Panthers stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. This Panthers team lost both their encounters with the Saints this season — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games when playing with double-revenge. Carolina lost to this team by a 31-21 score back on December 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 50 games when looking to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 28 points. |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints UNDER 48 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the New Orleans Saints (108). Carolina (11-5) will be facing this Saints’ offense for the third time this season — and that should give an advantage to their defense given this familiarity. The Panthers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals — and this includes playing four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. Carolina looks to bounce-back from their 22-10 loss in Atlanta last week with that final score falling far below that 44.5 point total. The Panthers offense managed to generate just 248 yards of offense in that game. Carolina also allowed 371 yards in that contest — and the Under is then 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They only generate 308.2 YPG when playing on the road this season. But this stout Carolina defense only allows the home team to score 19.6 PPG while limiting them to just 303.2 total YPG. |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars OVER 39 | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (105) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (106). Buffalo (9-7) did their part to reach the AFC Playoffs last week with their 22-16 win in Miami as a 2.5-point favorite. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Buffalo’s defense did surrender 356 yards in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. This Bills’ team has been vulnerable on defense when playing away from home. They allowed 24.6 PPG while surrendering 349.6 total YPG in their eight road games this season. Moving forward, Buffalo has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8.5 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Jacksonville (10-6) had nothing at stake last week but still played their starters in what ended up being a 15-10 loss in Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. That setback should eliminate any chance of this team being overconfident in this game despite being a favorite but more than a touchdown. As it is, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And while the offense managed only 232 yards of offense, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The Jaguars managed only 83 rushing yards in that game with Leonard Fournette handily a relatively light load by rushing the ball only 19 times for 69 yards. The good news for Jacksonville is that Fournette should be fresh for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not rushing for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now the Jags return home where they outscore their opponents by +7.5 net PPG. The Jacksonville defense gets most of the attention — and they have been outstanding at home by holding their opponents to just 18.4 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG. But the Jaguars offense has been strong at home where they are scoring 25.9 PPG while averaging 402.7 total YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams UNDER 49 | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (103) and the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this game having played five straight games that finished Under the Total after their 22-10 win over Carolina with that Total closing around 44.5. For some, that might be enough to trigger a contrarian Over bet — and I considered this angle for a lengthy time. But the damning case against that argument is that the Falcons specifically have played 7 straight games Under the Total after playing at least five straight Unders before that game. Atlanta plays underrated defense — they rank 9th in the NFL by allowing 318.4 total YPG. Over their last three games, they are limiting their opponents to just 312.0 total YPG after limiting the Panthers last week to just 248 yards of offense. The Falcons have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they generated 371 yards of offense over Carolina, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Atlanta will look to run the ball to keep the Rams offense off the field and exploit this vulnerability in the Los Angeles defense as they are allowing 122.3 rushing YPG which is 28th in the league. The Falcons have not scored more than 24 points in five straight games — so this a ball-control defensive-orientated team is what this team is become this season. They controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes last week against the Panthers in that must-win game. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 playoff games on the road, the Under is 3-1-1. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6 v. Rams | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this Wildcard Playoff game playing as good of football as they have played all season after their 22-10 win at home over Carolina that clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Falcons have won three of their last four games to earn the opportunity to defend their NFC Championship. Playoff experience is a big advantage this team has when facing the Rams. This Atlanta team is underrated on the defensive side of the football. They held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG while limiting them to only 318.4 total YPG. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta did generate 371 yards against the Panthers defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Falcons have covered the point spread 13 times. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | 22-21 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
SUBSCRIBERS, PLEASE NOTE: I have upgraded this Kansas City play to a 20* selection (from a 10* play initially). Thanks, Frank. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Kansas City (10-6) has won four straight games with their 27-24 win at Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. The Chiefs have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now this team returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 16.9 PPG. This Kansas City team scores 24.1 PPG on their home field — and that is 1.8 PPG lower than their 25.9 PPG seasonal average. They also only generate 343.1 total YPG which is over 30 YPG lower than their 375.4 total YPG mark. The Chiefs have played a decisive 44 of their last 63 games Under the Total on their home field. They also have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 playoff games at home, Kansas City has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson OVER 47 | 24-6 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide (273) and the Clemson Tigers (274). Clemson (12-1) has won six straight games after defeating Miami (FL) in the ACC Championship Game by a 38-3 score back on December 2nd. The Tigers rushed for only 77 yards in that game — but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. Clemson ranks 35.4 PPG this season which was 20th in the FBS — and they did not experience any drop-off when playing away from home where they scored 35.3 PPG. Of course, the Tigers have played the Crimson Tide for the National Championship in each of the last two seasons with the final score seeing 66 and 85 combined points. Despite the Total being a few points lower than the 51 or so points assigned as the Total for those two games, I see little reason why this Semifinals showdown will not be another shootout. Certainly both coaches will assume that scoring 30 points will be a prerequisite for winning this game. Clemson has played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing in the month of January. And in their last 6 games played on speedy field turf, the Tigers have played 5 of these games Over the Total. 10* CFB play with the Over. Best of luck for us -- Frank. TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama -2 v. Clemson | Top | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 704 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (273) in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama (11-1) saw their undefeated season spoiled in the Iron Bowl back on November 25th in a 26-14 upset loss at Auburn as a 5-point favorite. Look for the Crimson Tide to bounce-back with a very strong effort. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Crimson Tide has also covered the point spread in 42 of their last 63 road games after a straight-up loss. And in their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points, Alabama has covered the point spread 5 times. Nick Saban's team will be razor sharp as they look to bounce-back from that loss while also getting the opportunity to avenge their Championship Game loss to Clemson last season. Injuries at linebacker have slowed Alabama over the last month of the regular season -- which is one of the reasons why we went against them against Mississippi State and Auburn. But the Crimson Tide enters this game as healthy as they have been all season. Getting those linebackers back improves a stout defense that was already tops in the nation by allowing only 11.5 PPG. The Alabama offense also ranked 9th in the nation by scoring 39.1 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 4 games playing on field turf, the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread all 4 times. |
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01-01-18 | Georgia -2 v. Oklahoma | 54-48 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (271) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (272) in the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma (12-1) clinched their spot in the College Football Playoff with their 41-17 win over TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. The high-powered Sooners offense totaled 461 yards of offense against the Horned Frogs in that rematch — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. I am skeptical that the passing attack of this Oklahoma team will work against the speed of the Bulldogs defense. There is a reason why these video game offenses rarely work on a consistent basis in the NFL. It is telling that the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the SEC. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, I think this might be the competitive situation where the inexperience of first-year head coach Lincoln Riley begins to rear its ugly head. Remember, he was tapped as the Oklahoma head coach in the summer after Bob Stoops unexpectedly stepped down after eighteen years with the program. Preparing for the Bowl Playoffs is something even seasoned veterans learn from. Lastly for this Sooners team, their defense is only mediocre. Oklahoma allowed opponents to average 240.6 passing YPG which was 88th in the FBS. Overall, Oklahoma allowed 384.8 total YPG which was 59th in the nation and right smack in the middle of all FBS teams. |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma UNDER 62 | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Rose Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (271) and the Oklahoma Sooners (272). Georgia (12-1) reached the College Football Playoffs with their 28-7 win over Auburn in the SEC Championship Game as a 2-point favorite. The Bulldogs have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Georgia has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. The Bulldogs defense dominated this game as they held Auburn to just 259 yards of offense. Georgia has then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs allowed only 145 passing yards in that game as well — and they have then played a decisive 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, Georgia has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC. And in their last 8 games played on a neutral field, the Bulldogs have played 6 of these games Under the Total. |
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame UNDER 52 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Citrus Bowl between the LSU Tigers (269) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (270). LSU (9-3) has won three straight games with their 45-21 win over Texas A&M to close out their regular season. The Tigers have then seen the Under go 9-4-2 in their last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Under is also 6-1-2 in LSU’s last 9 games after a victory by at least 20 points. And in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points, the Under is 4-0-2. Additionally, LSU has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game at home where they won by at least 17 points. They generated a whopping 601 total yards against the Aggies while averaging 6.90 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 10 straight games Under the Total after a game where they averaged at least 6.75 YPP. LSU averaged just 21.8 PPG in their six games away from home. But their defense travels as they held the six teams they faced away from home to just 299.5 total YPG which was even lower than the 311.7 total YPG mark which was 11th best in the nation. The Under is 13-6-1 in the Tigers’ last 20 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the SEC, the Under is 5-2-1. 10* CFB play with the Under. Best of luck for us -- Frank. TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank. |
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01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame +3.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (270) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (269) in the Citrus Bowl. Notre Dame (9-3) limped into this Bowl game having lost two of their last three games after their 38-20 upset loss at Stanford as a 3-point favorite back on November 25th. The Fighting Irish should be very motivated to make a strong showing for themselves in this contest. Notre Dame has lost nine straight Bowl games — so this group has the opportunity to distinguish themselves. This is also the first time all season that the Irish are the underdogs. The Fighting Irish are led by the nation’s best offensive line that was awarded the Joe Moore Award for this distinction in December — so they should be able to push back against the Tigers’ defensive line. The Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. Taking better care of the football will play a big role as they suffered a -3 net turnover margin agains the Cardinal. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. And in their last 23 games played on field turf, the Irish have covered the point spread 14 times. |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida v. Auburn -10.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (268) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (267) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Central Florida (12-0) might be galvanized to pull the big upset in this game with the knowledge that three of the last four Group of Five football teams earning their one reserved spot in a New Year’s Six Bowl game has won their game. But Western Michigan was undefeated last year as well — and they lost to Wisconsin. This Knights team looks overmatched. While they led the nation by scoring 49.4 PPG, they enjoyed playing weak defenses up and down their schedule. The best defense Central Florida probably faced was against a middling South Florida defensive unit. To compound matters, the Knights ranked 110th in the FBS by allowing 262.8 passing YPG. Furthermore, while their departed head coach Scott Frost is still coaching them for this game, his attentions are certainly divided. Frost has been doing double-duty between preparing his former team for this Bowl game while also traveling to Lincoln to work on recruiting and lay the foundation for his new gig as the head coach at Nebraska. Central Florida is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the SEC. They come off winning the American Athletic Conference Championship Game in a video game result where they generated 726 yards of offense in a 62-55 win in overtime over Memphis. But Central Florida surrendered an incredible 753 yards in that victory including 282 yards on the ground. The Knights have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina +8.5 v. Michigan | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (266) in the Outback Bowl. Michigan (8-4) has lost two straight games entering this Bowl game after their 31-20 loss to Ohio State as a 12.5-point underdog to end their regular season. The Wolverines are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The team was mired with injuries at quarterback which required them to play senior John O’Korn who simply did not have the ability to successfully check off his primary receiver — and defenses continually burned him on that. Redshirt freshman Brandon Peters showed promise when he was given the opportunity to play — but he suffered a concussion in the Wisconsin game that kept him out in those final two losses. Peters is back for this game which has helped the Wolverines to be favorites laying more than a touchdown — but Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as the favorite. The Wolverines are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 14 games played on grass as will be the case for this contest, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread 10 times. |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan OVER 42 | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Please note: I am upgrading this Over play to a 20* play. Thanks, Frank. At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Outback Bowl between the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) and the Michigan Wolverines (266). South Carolina (8-4) looks to bounce-back from a 34-10 loss to Clemson back on November 25th to close out their regular season. The Gamecocks have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. South Carolina has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Gamecocks managed only 207 yards of offense against the thought Tigers defense — but the Over is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards in their last game. And in their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points, South Carolina has played 7 of these games Over the Total. |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -4 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (308) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (307). Atlanta (9-6) looks to bounce-back from their 23-13 loss in New Orleans last Sunday that snapped a two-game winning streak. The Falcons need a win here to clinch a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they managed only 67 rushing yards last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to rush for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Falcons will also be playing with revenge on their minds from a 20-17 loss in Carolina back on November 5th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when looking to avenge a loss by field goal or less in their last game against their opponent. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +2.5 v. Titans | 10-15 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) plus the points versus Tennessee Titans (312). Jacksonville (10-5) looks to rebound from their 44-33 upset loss at San Francisco last week despite being a 4-point favorite. The Jaguars have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Head coach Doug Marrone has indicated his team will play-to-win this game without resting their starters despite their slot in the playoffs locked-in. They need to get their defense in order after that rare bad game — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Jacksonville will be also playing with revenge on their minds after losing to the Titans back on September 17th by a 37-16 score. The Jaguars have covered then point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC South opponents. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 5 times. |
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12-31-17 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (331) and the Los Angeles Rams (332). Los Angeles (11-4) will be resting a few key players — including quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley — in this game with their slot in the NFC Playoffs as either the third or fourth seed secured. That means that the QB for this game will be Sean Mannion while the bell cow running back will be Malcolm Brown. While those names are not encouraging, the Rams defense should still be in good shape under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. In fact, Phillips will want to see many adjustments made from the 41-39 game that the Rams won in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 21st. Los Angeles enters this game coming off their 27-23 win at Tennessee last week as a 5.5-point favorite. The Rams have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning a game on the road where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Rams have played 6 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +4 | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (320) plus the points versus the Washington Redskins (319). New York (2-13) has lost five straight games after their 23-0 shutout loss in Arizona last week. Many bettors were sky-high on the Giants in that game after their very good showing the previous week in a 34-29 loss at home to the Eagles. While we had the Cardinals in that game, look for the Giants to play better this week as they look to redeem themselves from being shutout last week as a 3-point underdog. New York also looks to avenge a 20-10 loss in Washington back on November 23rd. The Giants have not defeated a divisional rival this season — so a good effort this afternoon goes a long way to get the terrible taste in their mouth from this lost season. Eli Manning will likely play every snap with the team likely to look to resign him under new general manager Dave Gettleman. New York is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. And while they have failed to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to top 75 rushing yards in two straight games. And in their last 13 games played in Week 17 of the regular season, the Giants have covered the point spread 9 times. |
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12-31-17 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 42 | Top | 13-22 | Win | 100 | 1 h 12 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (315) and the Indianapolis Colts (316). Houston (4-11) has lost five straight games after their 34-6 loss to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. The Texans managed only 227 yards of offense behind quarterbacks T.J. Yates and Taylor Heinicke — and the team will be without their All-World wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. As it is, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. And in their last 10 games after failing to score at least 15 points, the Texans have played 8 of these games Under the Total. The team had to resign QB Josh Johnson off the streets this week with both their quarterbacks going through the concussion protocol this week. Yates has been cleared to start — but he completed just 19 of 47 passes for 211 yards and a QB Rating of 50.9 in his Houston has not scored a point in the first-half in their last two games — and they have then played 21 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first-half in two straight games. |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +7 | 34-24 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (264) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (263) in the Orange Bowl. Miami (FL) (10-2) looks to erase their two-game losing streak and end their season on a positive note after their ugly 38-3 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game back on December 2nd. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Miami held the Tigers to just 77 rushing yards in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. The Hurricanes’ defense is legit — they ranked 17th in the nation by allowing only 19.9 PPG. The offense was ravaged with injuries to three key skill position players which severely limited them in the Clemson game. But the month of bowl practices should have improved the running back and wide receiver positions for junior QB Malik Rosier. Miami is, of course, the host team of the Orange Bowl — and they are a perfect 7-0 with an average winning margin of +18.0 PPG. The Hurricanes outgain their visitors by +114.5 net YPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games as the underdog. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the ACC. |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL UNDER 45 | 34-24 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Wisconsin Badgers (263) and the Miami Hurricanes (264). Miami (FL) (10-2) has lost two straight games with their 38-3 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as a 12.5-point underdog. The Hurricanes have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Miami has not scored more than 14 points in their last two games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than two touchdowns in two straight games. The Hurricanes will be playing on their home field at Hard Rock Stadium — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home field. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Miami has played 6 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, the Hurricanes have played a decisive 45 of their last 65 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. And in the last 4 Bowl games, Miami has played all 4 games Under the Total. |
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12-30-17 | Washington +3 v. Penn State | 28-35 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (261) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (262) in the Fiesta Bowl. Washington (10-2) has won two straight games with their 41-14 win over Washington State in the Apple Bowl back on November 25th. The Huskies have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Washington allowed 369 passing yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This Huskies defense is outstanding led by All-Americandefensive tackle Vita Vea. Washington ranks 5th in the nation by allowing only 14.5 PPG while also limiting their opponents to just 277.4 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Huskies have outscored their five opponents when away from home by +12.8 PPG while also outgaining them by +70.2 net YPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games in December, the Huskies have covered the point spread 4 games. |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State UNDER 55 | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Washington Huskies (261) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (262). Penn State (10-2) has won three straight games with their 66-3 blowout win at Maryland to close out their regular season. The Nittany Lions have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Penn State went into halftime with a 31-0 lead over the Terrapins — and they have then played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after holding at least a 24-point lead at halftime in their last game. The Nittany Lions have also played 50 of their last 77 games Under the Total after allowing 3 points or less in their last game. Moving forward, Penn State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field with the Total in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 87 games against teams outside the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions have played 55 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis -3.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 58 m | Show | |
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (260) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (259) in the Liberty Bowl. Iowa State (7-5) has lost three of their last four games with their 20-19 loss at Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 25th. The Cyclones are a trendy pick this afternoon being an underdog against a Group of Five program despite having scored upset wins against Oklahoma and TCU this season. But this is a true road game for this Iowa State team playing on Memphis’ home field against the Tigers. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference rival. Iowa State has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when on the road with the Total set at least at 63. And while the Cyclones held the Wildcats to only 264 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. |
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12-30-17 | Louisville v. Mississippi State +7 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (258) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (257) in the Taxslayer Bowl. Louisville (8-4) closed out their season winning three straight games in decisive fashion — culminating in a 44-17 win at Kentucky. The Cardinals averaged 46 PPG over that stretch while holding those three opponents to just 315 YPG. But the competition was not spectacular with those wins being against the Wildcats along with Virginia and Syracuse. Don’t be surprised to see this Louisville team suffer a letdown now. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Cardinals are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, while Louisville gained 562 yards against the Kentucky defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Behind last year’s Heisman Trophy winner in QB Lamar Jackson, this team has the weapons to blow out inferior opponents. But their offensive line tends to be overwhelmed by big and powerful defensive lines from top-tier defensive programs. In their three games against Clemson, NC State and Florida State, Louisville scoring average plummeted to 25.7 PPG. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the ACC, Louisville is 1-6-1 ATS. |
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12-29-17 | USC +10 v. Ohio State | 7-24 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (255) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (256) in the Cotton Bowl. USC (11-2) has won five straight games since their bad loss at Notre Dame — culminating in their 31-28 win over Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game as a 3.5-point favorite. The Trojans outgained the Cardinal generated 501 yards of offense in that game while winning the yardage battle by +158 net yards. USC has then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 125 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 175 yards. USC averaged 7.45 Yards-Per-Play against Stanford — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. This is now a healthier football team again playing behind QB Sam Darnold who is 20-3 as a starter. The Trojans had a 24 players on the injured list against the Irish. Look for USC to build off their momentum to play well in this game. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after wining six or seven of their last eight games — including covering the point spread six of their last eight games after winning six or seven of their last eight. USC has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after wining eight of their last ten games. And in their last 12 games played with the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Trojans have covered the point spread 8 times. |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5 | 7-24 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Cotton Bowl between the USC Trojans (255) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (256). Ohio State (11-2) has won four straight games after their triumphant 27-21 in over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game as a 3-point favorite. The Buckeyes have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up game. Ohio State has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Buckeyes outgained the Badgers by +151 net yards in that contest — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after outgunning their last opponent by at least +175 yards. Ohio State rushed for 238 yards against Wisconsin — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The Buckeyes averaged 6.6 Yards-Per-Play against the Badgers — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. |
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12-29-17 | Utah State v. New Mexico State OVER 63 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
At 5:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Utah State Aggies (253) and the New Mexico State Aggies (254). Utah State (6-6) enters this game coming off a 38-35 loss at Air Force as a 2.5-point favorite back on November 25th. Utah State has then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Utah State gained 521 yards in that losing effort — and they have then played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 4 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference, the Aggies have played all 4 games Over the Total. |
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12-29-17 | NC State -5.5 v. Arizona State | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (249) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (250) in the Sun Bowl. Arizona State (7-5) is another bowl team in the middle of a coaching transition with sixth-year head coach Todd Graham fired for ESPN television personality (and former NFL head coach coach over a decade ago) Herm Edwards. Graham has agreed to stay on to coach this game — and I do expect his players to play hard for their lame duck leader who recruited all of them. But this Sun Devils team looks due for a letdown anyways after they ended their season with a 42-30 upset win against their arch-rival Arizona as a 2-point underdog back on November 25th. This team pulled off four upsets this season with their win over Washington being their highest-profile victory. Arizona State has won five of their last seven games while covering the point spread in seven of their last nine games. But the Sun Devils have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Those are not encouraging team trends for a program that will have new coordinators on both sides of the football for this game. As it is, Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of December. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field, Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread 4 times. |
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12-29-17 | Texas A&M v. Wake Forest -3.5 | 52-55 | Loss | -127 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (248) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (247) in the Belk Bowl. Wake Forest (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their regular season game which was a 31-23 upset loss to Duke as a 10.5-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Wake Forest has the geographical edge in this matchup with this Bowl being played in nearby Charlotte. This was a battle-tested team that had a 4-5 record against teams that reached a Bowl game — as compared to the 1-5 record that Texas A&M had against bowl teams this season. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 4 Bowl games, head coach Dave Clawson’s team has covered the point spread all 4 times. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State +3 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (278) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (277) in the Holiday Bowl. Michigan State (9-3) opened this game as a small underdog — and with most of the money being bet on Sparty, they now find themselves as a small favorite in the 2-point range. But the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games without head coach Mark Dantonio being able to play the “disrespect” card. Michigan State has won two straight games after their 40-7 win at Rutgers as a 13.5-point favorite. But the Spartans have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Michigan State forced three turnovers in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. And while Sparty did not commit a turnover in that contest, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after committing no more than one turnover in their last contest. Michigan State does have a very good defense that has allowed 97 rushing yards combined in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Remember, this Spartans defense was exposed by Ohio State in a their 48-3 loss to the Buckeyes last month in a game where they allowed 524 yards of offense. The Michigan State offense scored only 23.6 PPG in their five games on the road this year — and they were outgained by -2.6 net PPG in their five games away from East Lansing. The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents. |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -3 | 37-39 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing then TCU Horned Frogs (246) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (245) in the Alamo Bowl. TCU (10-3) looks to bounce-back from getting throttled in the Big 12 Championship Game at Oklahoma in their 41-17 loss as a 7-point underdog. The Horned Frogs have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Take away two losses to an Oklahoma team that is hoping to play for a National Championship and this TCU team lost to just one other team this season. They have an outstanding defense that limits their opponents to just 17.6 PPG (11th in the FBS) while holding those teams to only 328.5 total YPG (17th in the FBS). On offense, they are led by senior QB Kenny Hill who completed 67% of his passes this season. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 60 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. TCU has also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And with this game being played on field turf in San Antonio which will give the Horned Frogs a geographical advantage, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on turf. |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Oklahoma State | 21-30 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
At 5:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (243) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (244) in the Camping World Bowl. Virginia Tech (9-3) has won two straight games after their 10-0 shutout victory at Virginia. The Hokies have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win Virginia Tech has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest. This Hokies defense is one of the best in the nation as they are holding their opponents to just 13.5 PPG which is 5th best in the FBS — and they rank 11th in the nation by holding their opponents to only 305.3 total YPG. Defense travels — and Virginia Tech was 4-2 on the road with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG due to this defense that held those opponents to only 17.8 PPG. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in expected higher-scoring games where the Total was set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Virginia Tech has also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 point range. I am expected redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson to have improved during the extra Bowl practices under their offensive guru of a head coach in Justin Fuente. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 11 games in the month of December, Virginia Tech has covered the point spread 8 times. |
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12-28-17 | Virginia v. Navy +1.5 | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
At 1:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (242) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Virginia Cavaliers (241) in the Military Bowl. Navy (6-6) is a team that is often faded in Bowl games given the conventional wisdom that the opponent’s opportunity to practice for a few weeks against their unique spread triple option mitigates the inherent advantage the Midshipmen have from week-to-week deploying that offense. And that is some solid 2012 reasoning. However, bettors have caught up to that logic and the oddsmakers have adjusted. Bettors were also using that logic to bet against Army against a San Diego State teach coached by Rocky Long who was being described as the Yoda of defending spread triple options. The fact is that these triple option offenses are so tricky because there is a second (and third) level of adjustments that can be made once defenses begin to catch up to it. In regards to the Naval Academy, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight Bowl games which should put that Hot Take to rest for the time being. The Midshipmen host this Bowl game which gives them a significant advantage in this contests. Navy was 4-1 at home this year while outgaining their opponents by +50.4 net YPG. They are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games on their home field. These Midshipmen should be very motivated to end their season on a high note after losing three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after losing their rivalry game against Army in heartbreaking fashion in the snow by a 14-13 score. Navy was 2.5-point favorites in that game — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. Navy faced a very competitive schedule this season so they enter this game battle tested. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (240) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (239) in the Texas Bowl. Texas (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their last regular season game back on November 24th in their 27-23 loss to Texas Tech. It is pretty easy for Bowl observers to point to head coach Tom Herman’s 9-1 ATS record as an underdog in his head coaching career — and that includes overseeing six straight-up upset victories. While that helps to establish some confidence that Herman is effective at motivating his team when the odds are stacked against them, this logic has become conventional wisdom. On the other hand, a knee-jerk play-against this evolving conventional wisdom would be foolhardy as well. I do like the Longhorns to come out with a strong effort in their home state where sending good vibes is important to Herman for recruiting. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. This Longhorns team has a stout defense that ranked 30th in the FBS by holding opponents to just 21.7 PPG. In their six games away from home, Texas held their opponents to only 18.0 PPG. This defensive play has helped the Longhorns go 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. On offense, look for this unit to play well behind promising freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger who should benefit from the extra weeks of bowl preparation. The Longhorns have three players who have defied to not play this game to protect their health for the upcoming NFL draft — but roster talent has never been the issue with this team. Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral field, the Longhorns have covered the point spread 5 times. |
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12-27-17 | Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (275) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (276) in the Foster Farm’s Bowl. Arizona (7-5) has lost two straight games with their 42-30 upset loss at Arizona State back on November 25th. That loss may be indicative of a book that has begun to be established against sophomore QB Khalil Tate who tore up the Pac-12 when head coach Rich Rodriguez inserted him into the starting lineup. The Wildcats won five of their last eight games with Tate as the starting QB taking over for junior Brandon Dawkins. But over his last two starts, Tate ran the ball only 22 times for 60 yards while completing 29 of his 48 passes for 291 yards which are akin to numbers he was putting up in just one game (albeit with less passing and more rushing attempts). Rodriguez eventually benched Tate to give Dawkins a chance to move the ball in their rivalry game against Arizona State. But, as always, the bigger concerns with Rodriguez-coached teams are defense and discipline. The Wildcats ranked 116th in the FBS by allowing 464.2 total YPG. They surrendered 227 yards to the Sun Devils — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. It is poor Special Teams, penalties and overall undisciplined play that makes Arizona an unreliable small favorite under Rich Rod. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Arizona has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played in the month of December. Additionally, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. And in their last 6 Bowl game appearances, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. |
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12-27-17 | Boston College +3 v. Iowa | 20-27 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
At 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (237) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (238) in the Pinstripe Bowl. Boston College (7-5) has won two straight games — as well as six of their last eight contests — with their 42-14 win at Syracuse in their last regular season game back on November 25th as a 4.5-point favorite. The Eagles are then 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Boston College is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. This became a changed football team when freshman A.J. Dillon entered the starting lineup. Dillon de-committed from Michigan to enroll at BC with the promise of a better immediate opportunity for playing time — and he proved why by rushing for 1432 yards with a 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry average along with 13 TDs. Dillon ran the ball 23 times for 193 yards en route to the Eagles putting up 333 yards in that win over the Orangemen. Boston College has then a decisive 40-19-2 in their last 61 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. An effective ground game makes the Eagles dangerous because of their typically strong play on defense. This season, BC ranks 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Defense and a strong ground game travels — and the Eagles were 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +10.1 PPG. Boston College is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Eagles are 4-0-1 ATS. |
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12-27-17 | Southern Miss +14.5 v. Florida State | 13-42 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
At 1:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (235) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (236) in the Independence Bowl. Florida State (6-6) enters this game winning and covering the point spread in three straight games to become Bowl eligible. Their last game was a 42-10 win over UL-Monroe back on December 2nd as a 26-point favorite. The Seminoles generated 504 yards of offense in that game — but they are then 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 405 yards in their last game. And while they did not force a turnover against the Ragin’ Cajun defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. This is a team in transition with Odell Haggins serving as the interim coach before Willie Taggart takes over for the departed Dabo Swinney who took the money to go to Texas A&M. While Florida State was snake-bit by injuries this season which was made worse by a difficult schedule, they remain a precarious big favorite laying more than two touchdowns. This team scored only 17.3 PPG while averaging 267.2 total YPG when away from home this season. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, Florida State is just 0-4-2 ATS. |
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12-26-17 | Kansas State v. UCLA +7 | 35-17 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (234) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (233) in the Cactus Bowl. Kansas State (7-5) enters this Bowl game having won two straight games as well as four of their last five with their 20-19 win over Iowa State. But the Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a victory over a Big 12 rival by 7 points or less. Moving forward, lets just say that I like betting on Bill Snyder’s teams when they are underdogs but become wary of them when they are laying the points. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing on a neutral field as the favorite. I know that they are facing a UCLA team that is a hot mess — but these Wildcats are no beacons of serene stability themselves. They are down to their third-string quarterback in freshman Skylar Thompson. Their seven wins this season could be considered an overachievement when considering that were outgained by their opponents by -63.7 net YPG. This Kansas State team ranked surprisingly low at 97th in the FBS by allowing 432.0 total YPG due to a porous pass defense that allowed a whopping 310.3 passing YPG which was 128th in the nation. These Wildcats also were outgained by -99.0 net YPG when playing away from home. Furthermore, Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral field. Snyder is a great coach — but I do think the extra preparation time in Bowl games helps to level the playing field since opposing coaches get extra time to find some angles that Snyder seems to discover on a week-to-week advantage to help his team continually overachieve. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Bowl games. |
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12-26-17 | Northern Illinois +6 v. Duke | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
At 5:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (231) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (232) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Northern Illinois (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their last regular season in a 31-24 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 2.5-point favorite. That was a disappointing result for the Huskies (and us) as they went into a halftime with a comfortable 17-0 lead before being overwhelmed by the Chippewas in the final 30 minutes. Northern Illinois be anxious to redeem themselves from that loss. Head coach Rod Carey has also certainly reminded him team of the team’s humiliating performance in the 2015 Poinsettia Bowl where they lost to Boise State by a 55-7 score while being outgained by an incredible 654-33 margin. Injuries played a role in that results — and I do not think that performance offers any evidence as to how the Huskies can perform against a Power Five Conference representative. This team defeated Nebraska this season while losing by just 3 points to a feisty Boston College team this season. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference rival. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game — and this includes covering the point spread in six of their last seven games with that situation. And while the Huskies have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Northern Illinois may have finally found the heir to quarterback Jordan Lynch that led the program to great heights climaxing in an Orange Bowl appearance five years ago. Redshirt freshman QB Marcus Childers has the passing and running mix that Carey likes to see from his quarterback to make this spread offense hum. The Huskies also have a great defense that built off the momentum they established in their final five games of the 2016 season. Northern Illinois allowed just 20.8 PPG (27th in the FBS) while ranking 18th in the nation by limiting opponents to only 328.0 total YPG based on a stout run defense that is 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 112.3 rushing YPG. This helps the Huskies to be dangerous underdogs. They have covered the point spread in a decisive 54 of their last 89 games including three of their last four and eight of their last thirteen games when getting the points. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference. |
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12-26-17 | Northern Illinois v. Duke UNDER 47 | 14-36 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Under the Total in the game between the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Duke Blue Devils in the Quick Lane Bowl. Northern Illinois (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak in their last regular season game with their 31-24 loss at Central Michigan. The Huskies have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss. Northern Illinois has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Duke (6-6) enters this Bowl game coming off their 31-23 win at Wake Forest. The Blue Devils have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record, Duke has played 9 of these games Under the Total. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year last night with the Oakland-Philly Under to further a RED HOT 17 of 22 (77%) Football run which has fueled a 70 of 93 (75%) Football mark! Now Frank turns back to College Football where he is is on a 35 of 48 (73%) CFB run after his SCORCHING 15 of 18 (83%) CFB Bowl mark so far this postseason! Frank made it a PERFECT 4-0 with his highest-rated 25* CFB Bowl plays with Fresno State on Sunday — and he looks to make it FIVE IN A ROW with the Northern Illinois-Duke ATS winner that is worthy of his 25* seal of approval! JOIN Frank for this 52* SPECIAL FEATURE! |
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12-26-17 | Utah v. West Virginia +7 | 30-14 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
At 1:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (230) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (229) in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. West Virginia (7-5) limped into their bowl game losing two straight games with their 59-31 loss at Oklahoma back on November 25th. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games under head coach Dana Holgorsen. But this West Virginia team is undermanned entering this bowl game. Quarterback Will Grier has announced he is returning to the school to use his final year of eligibility — but the finger injury that kept him out of the last two games will keep him from taking the field this afternoon. Sophomore Chris Chugunov will be the starting QB this afternoon. While he has completed just 54% of his passes, he has the luxury of an outstanding group of wide receivers and he should have gotten better with the benefit of bowl practices. Running back Justin Crawford is also bypassing this game to protect his precious draft stock — but, frankly, that is not as big a deal as advertised. Sophomore running back Kennedy McKoy rushed the ball 25 times for 137 yards against the Sooners while leading the Mountaineers to 250 rushing yards against Oklahoma. The Mountaineers have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Holgorson offense that ranked 14th in the nation in total offense should find a rhythm this afternoon because the head coach always seems to get his offense going. Defense is another issue. West Virginia allowed 646 yards to the Sooners including 313 yards on the ground — but they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 275 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 50 points in their last game. The Holgorson offensive attack does travel — they averaged 517.8 total YPG when playing on the road which helped them outgain their opponents by +32.1 net YPG. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -10 | 10-19 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Philadelphia (12-2) returns home after playing their last three games on the road that culminated in a 34-29 win in New York over the Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Eagles have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up victory. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Nick Foles seems capable of leading this team deep into the playoffs even after the injury to Carson Wentz. Foles completed 24 of 38 passes for 237 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the win over the Giants. The Eagles did surrender 504 yards to the Giants last week - but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 8 games played on Monday Night Football, Philadelphia has covered the point spread 6 times. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (131) and the Philadelphia Eagles (132). Philadelphia (12-2) enters this game coming off a 34-29 win in New York against the Giants on the heels of a 43-35 win in Los Angeles against the Rams. Those two games went Over the Total by 22 and 31 points respectively which may make it tempting for some bettors to expect another Over tonight. There are a host of empirical situational angles that help inform my decisions that do not end up being documented in my Reports but I wanted to highlight this one that identifies the contrarian play regarding the Under with the Eagles. After the first month of the season in games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, when one team has played their last two games Over the Total by at least two touchdowns, these games finished Under the Total in 34 of the last 44 situations (77%) where these conditions applied. The Eagles should see a much better effort from their defense after giving up 64 combined points over their last two games. Philly has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have also played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Eagles have played 37 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored in two straight contests. Philadelphia has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after two straight wins on the road. Returning home after playing a rigorous three straight games on the road should help this defense. On their home field, the Eagles are allowing only 15.2 PPG along with just 278.3 total YPG — and they have not given up more than 24 points at home all season. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 18 home games Under the Total as the favorite which includes playing their last two games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5 to 14 point range. |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +9 | 34-6 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (130) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (129). Pittsburgh (11-3) has spent the week not only recovering from their loss to the Patriots and all that it means in terms of home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs but they are also dealing with the fallout of Ben Roethlisberger throwing an interception on the goal line that could have won (and covered the point spread) in that game. We are on a nice run right now — but things have been helped by seeing close games like that turn our way as we had a big play on the Patriots. Critics who think Roethlisberger should have just spiked the ball should have their Pundit Cards revoked permanently. Ask any New England bettor — or any Patriots player or coach — and they will tell you that they were praying for that game to go into overtime. The opportunity to win that game on one play — on the darn goal line — must be seized. Yes, bad things can happen when one takes risks — and we will always remember that play or the Russell Wilson interception in the Super Bowl. But the fact remains that even a high-risk pass into the middle of the field rarely results in an interception. Sure, in hindsight, Big Ben should not have thrown into double-coverage. But it is also a fact that these same pundits (along with the entire Football Analytics community) would be applauding Roethlisberger for pulling a Dan Marino fake-spike touchdown pass (just like they always call for on Twitter!) if the play would have worked. Rant aside, I think the Steelers’ suffered what we call a Deflating Loss that will negatively impact them now on the road as a big favorite. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. They are also a mere 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Roethlisberger did have a good game against the Pats by completing 22 of 30 passes for 281 yards — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games passing for at least 250 passing yards. Big Ben not having his superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown certainly does not help matters. Brown has simply been spectacular this year. Pittsburgh surrendered 283 passing yards to the Patriots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December. Pittsburgh has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Steelers are just 1-3-1 ATS. |
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