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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-12-19 | Northeastern v. Hofstra +2.5 | Top | 82-74 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Hofstra Pride (612) plus the points versus the Northeastern Huskies (611). Hofstra (27-6) has won their last four games after reaching the Finals of the Colonial Athletic Association tournament with their 78-74 win over Delaware as an 11-point favorite. Northeastern (22-10) has won six straight games as well as eleven of their last twelve with their 70-67 win over the College of Charleston yesterday as a 3-point favorite. With this event taking place in Charleston, this is a true neutral court for both teams. |
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03-11-19 | San Diego +4.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 62-69 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
At 11:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Diego Toreros (887) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (888). San Diego (21-13) reached the Semifinals of the West Coast Conference tournament on Saturday with their 80-57 drubbing of BYU as a 3.5-point underdog. Saint Mary’s (20-11) takes the court again after their 69-55 loss at home to Gonzaga as a 9.5-point underdog back on March 2nd. This tournament is taking place down the street at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. |
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03-11-19 | Monmouth +5 v. Iona | Top | 60-81 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Monmouth Hawks (895) plus the points versus the Iona Gaels (896). Monmouth (14-20) has won four straight games to reach the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament championship game after their 73-59 win over Canisius as a 1-point favorite yesterday. Iona (16-15) joined them in the finals of this event with their 73-57 win against Siena as a 2-point favorite. This is a true neutral court for both teams with this tournament hosted by Siena in Albany. |
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03-10-19 | South Dakota v. IUPU Ft Wayne +1.5 | Top | 70-96 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Purdue-Fort Wayne Mastodons (868) plus the point(s) versus the South Dakota Coyotes (867). Purdue-Fort Wayne (17-14) limps into the Summit League tournament having lost four in a row after their 69-66 upset loss to North Dakota State last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. South Dakota (13-16) has won four of their last five games after their 78-63 win over North Dakota last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. These two teams meeting in the final Quarterfinals contest in the Summit League tournament. |
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03-09-19 | Oregon v. Washington UNDER 126 | Top | 55-47 | Win | 100 | 1 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (713) and the Washington Cougars (714). THE SITUATION: Oregon (18-12) has won three straight games with their 72-61 win at Washington State last Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite. Washington (24-6) has won their last two games after they defeated Oregon State on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite. |
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03-09-19 | Michigan +4 v. Michigan State | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (649) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (650). THE SITUATION: Michigan (26-4) has won their last two games after losing at home to the Spartans by a 77-70 score back on February 24th despite being a 4.5-point favorite in that game. The Wolverines come off an impressive 69-62 win at Maryland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Michigan State (24-6) has won six of their last seven games after their 91-76 win over Nebraska as a 13.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The winner of this game clinches at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season title. |
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03-09-19 | Bradley +6 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 53-51 | Win | 100 | 1 h 36 m | Show |
At 3:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Bradley Braves (717) plus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (718). THE SITUATION: Bradley (18-14) reached the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament yesterday with their 61-58 upset win over Missouri State yesterday getting 2.5-points. Loyola-Chicago (20-12) defeated Valparaiso by a 67-54 score yesterday as a 7.5-point favorite. “Arch Madness” takes place on a neutral court in St. Louis. |
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03-08-19 | Yale +1 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -109 | 0 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Yale Bulldogs (873) plus (or minus) the points versus the Pennsylvania Quakers (874). Yale (19-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 83-75 upset loss to Columbia last Saturday as a 12.5-point favorite. Penn (17-11) has won two of their last three games with their 65-51 win at Dartmouth as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. |
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03-07-19 | NJIT v. Lipscomb -11.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Lipscomb Bisons (307140) minus the points versus the New Jersey Institute of Technology Highlanders (307139). THE SITUATION: Lipscomb (24-6) reached the Semifinals of the Atlantic Sun tournament on Monday with their 86-71 win at home over Kennesaw State as a 26.5-point favorite. NJIT (21-11) pulled the upset in the Quarterfinals of the Atlantic Sun tournament on Monday when they defeated the Florida Gulf Coast on the road by an 83-78 score as a 3.5-point underdog. Higher seeds (determined by NET rankings) earn hosting rights in this event so this game will be played on Lipscomb’s home court in Nashville. |
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03-06-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 134 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (833) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (834). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (18-12) has lost two straight upset losses in a row after their 83-76 loss at Florida International as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Florida Atlantic (17-12) has won three of their last four games after their 60-54 upset win at North Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Thursday. |
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03-06-19 | Youngstown State +8.5 v. Oakland | Top | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Youngstown State Penguins (843) plus the points versus the Oakland Grizzlies (844). Youngstown State (12-19) has lost three straight games after their 89-80 loss in overtime at home to Cleveland State last Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. Oakland (16-16) has won four straight games after their 74-63 win over IUPUI on Saturday as a 3-point favorite. The Grizzlies are the third seed in the Horizon League tournament with the higher seed earning the right to host the Quarterfinal contests in this event — so this game is being played on the Oakland campus (where this handicapper happened to have been born). |
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03-05-19 | Kentucky v. Ole Miss UNDER 139 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (639) and the Mississippi Rebels (640). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (24-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a 71-52 loss at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog. Mississippi (19-10) has lost their last two games after their 74-73 loss at Arkansas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. |
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03-05-19 | Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL UNDER 136 | Top | 63-76 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Panthers (627) and the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (628). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (12-17) has lost twelve games in a row with their 73-49 loss at Virginia on Saturday as an 18-point underdog. Miami (FL) (12-16) has lost their last two games after their 87-57 loss at Duke as a 15-point underdog on Saturday. |
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03-04-19 | Weber State -3.5 v. Idaho State | Top | 74-78 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Weber State Wildcats (873) minus the points versus the Idaho State Bengals (874). THE SITUATION: Weber State (16-12) has lost their last two games after their 85-61 loss at Northern Colorado last Thursday as a 4.5-point underdog. Idaho State (9-17) has lost five straight games with their 71-62 loss at Northern Colorado as a 13-point underdog on Saturday. |
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03-02-19 | Bradley v. Loyola-Chicago -8 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (614) minus the points versus the Bradley Braves (613). THE SITUATION: Loyola-Chicago (18-12) has won two of their last three games with their 56-55 win at Northern Iowa on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite. Bradley (17-13) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 67-42 blowout win over Valparaiso on Wednesday as a 5.5-point favorite. |
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03-01-19 | Siena v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Siena Saints (863) and the Canisius Golden Griffins (864). Siena (15-14) has won two straight games with their 67-55 win over Marist last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Canisius (13-16) has lost two straight contests after their 86-84 loss to Niagara as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday. |
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02-28-19 | Arizona State v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (660) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (659). THE SITUATION: Oregon (15-12) has lost three straight games with their 90-83 loss at UCLA as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arizona State (19-8) has won three straight contests with their 69-59 win over California last Sunday as a 17-point favorite. |
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02-26-19 | Ohio v. Kent State -7 | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (622) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (621). THE SITUATION: Kent State (19-8) has lost two straight games after their 80-57 loss at Buffalo on Friday as a 15-point underdog. Ohio (12-14) saw their six-game losing streak snapped on Friday with their 92-87 upset win over Bowling Green where they were 4.5-point underdogs. |
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02-24-19 | Michigan State v. Michigan UNDER 134 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
At 3:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (833) and the Michigan Wolverines (834). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (22-5) has won four straight games with their 71-60 win over Rutgers on Wednesday as a 15.5-point favorite. Michigan (24-3) has won four of their last five games with their 69-60 win at Minnesota on Thursday as a 5.5-point favorite. |
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02-23-19 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 138.5 | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Monroe Warhawks (659) and the UT-Arlington Mavericks (660). THE SITUATION: UL-Monroe (14-11) has won three of their last four games with their 63-60 win at Texas State on Thursday as a 5-point favorite. UT-Arlington (12-15) has lost three straight games after suffering their second straight upset loss on Thursday when they lost at home to UL-Lafayette by a 76-64 score as a 3-point favorite. |
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02-22-19 | Green Bay v. Illinois-Chicago -4.5 | Top | 63-62 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Illinois-Chicago Flames (862) minus the points versus the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (861). THE SITUATION: Illinois-Chicago (14-13) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 81-73 upset loss at Youngstown State as a 1-point favorite. Wisconsin-Green Bay (14-13) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 82-73 win over Detroit as a 5.5-point favorite. |
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02-21-19 | UL - Lafayette v. Texas-Arlington -3 | Top | 76-64 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UT-Arlington Mavericks (624) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (623). THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (12-14) has lost two straight games after their 83-79 loss at Arkansas State last Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. UL-Lafayette (14-10) has won their last two games with their 83-76 win over UL-Monroe as a pick ‘em on Saturday. |
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02-20-19 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 | Top | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (819) and the Duke Blue Devils (820). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (20-5) has won eight of their last nine games after their 95-57 win at Wake Forest as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (23-2) has won nine games in a row with their 94-78 win over North Carolina State as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. |
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02-20-19 | Florida v. LSU -5.5 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (788) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (787). THE SITUATION: LSU (21-4) has won four straight games with their 83-79 win at Georgia on Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite. Florida (14-11) has won two straight games after their 71-53 upset win at Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. |
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02-19-19 | Florida State v. Clemson -1 | Top | 77-64 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (630) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (629). THE SITUATION: Clemson (15-10) has lost two straight games after their 56-55 loss at Louisville on Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Florida State (20-5) has won seven straight games after they easily dispatched of Georgia Tech on the road on Saturday by a 69-47 margin as a 7-point favorite. |
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02-14-19 | Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State OVER 145 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (667) and the North Dakota State Bison (667). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (10-17) has won two straight games with their 86-72 upset win at South Dakota as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. North Dakota State (13-12) has won four straight games with their 81-71 win over Denver on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite. |
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02-13-19 | Minnesota v. Nebraska UNDER 137.5 | Top | 61-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (829) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (830). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (16-8) has lost three straight games with their 79-55 loss at Michigan State last Saturday as a 13.5-point underdog. Nebraska (13-11) has lost seven in a row with their 81-62 loss at Purdue as a 13-point underdog on Saturday. |
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02-13-19 | South Florida +7.5 v. UCF | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (793) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (794). South Florida (17-6) has won five straight games after their 72-68 win over East Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite. Central Florida (17-5) has won two of their last three games after their 71-65 upset win at SMU as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. |
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02-12-19 | Butler v. St. John's -3.5 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the St. John’s Red Storm (628) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (627). THE SITUATION: St. John’s (17-7) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-56 upset loss to Providence on Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Butler (14-10) has won their last two games with their 73-69 win at Georgetown as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. |
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02-09-19 | Colorado v. USC -4.5 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (768) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (767). THE SITUATION: USC (13-10) has lost two of their last three games with their 77-70 loss to Utah as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday. Colorado (13-9) pulled off their second straight upset victory when they shocked UCLA at Pauley Pavilion on Wednesday as a 6-point underdog. |
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02-09-19 | Ohio v. Miami-OH UNDER 132.5 | Top | 59-79 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (631) and the Miami (OH) Redhawks (632). THE SITUATION: Ohio (11-10) has lost two straight games after their 65-53 loss to Akron last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Miami (OH) (12-11) has lost two of their last three games with their 70-67 loss at Kent State as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. |
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02-08-19 | Georgia State v. UL - Lafayette +1 | Top | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (864) plus the point(s) versus the Georgia State Panthers (863). Louisiana-Lafayette (12-10) has lost three straight games after their 103-86 loss to Georgia Southern on Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. Georgia State (16-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 82-76 loss at UL-Monroe as a 2.5-point underdog. |
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02-07-19 | College of Charleston v. Delaware +5.5 | Top | 83-75 | Loss | -112 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Delaware Blue Hens (604) plus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (603). THE SITUATION: Delaware (14-10) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 84-63 loss at William & Mary on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. College of Charleston (18-6) has won four straight contests after their 54-53 win over Towson on Saturday as a 11.5-point favorite. |
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02-06-19 | California v. Oregon UNDER 139.5 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (831) and the Oregon Ducks (832). THE SITUATION: California (5-16) has lost ten straight games after their 84-81 loss at home to Stanford last Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oregon (13-9) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 73-51 upset loss at Colorado as a 1-point favorite. |
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02-05-19 | Drake v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 130 | Top | 64-86 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Drake Bulldogs (615) and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (616). THE SITUATION: Drake (17-6) has won five of their last six games with their 68-62 upset victory at Indiana State on Saturday as a 1-point underdog. Loyola-Chicago (14-9) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 65-57 loss to Illinois State as a 1-point underdog. |
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02-02-19 | Middle Tennessee v. UAB -11 | Top | 79-78 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (742) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (741). THE SITUATION: UAB (14-8) has the opportunity for immediate revenge as they host Middle Tennessee (6-16) after getting upset in their gym by a 71-65 score despite being a 6-point favorite on Wednesday. |
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02-01-19 | Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 131 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (869) and the Wisconsin Badgers (870). THE SITUATION: Maryland (17-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 70-52 win over Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite. Wisconsin (15-6) has won four straight games after their 62-51 upset win at Nebraska as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. |
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02-01-19 | Northern Kentucky v. IUPU-Indianapolis +3.5 | Top | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the IUPUI Jaguars (864) plus the points versus the Northern Kentucky Norse (863). THE SITUATION: IUPUI (13-9) has won three of their last four games with their 80-65 win over Detroit last Saturday as an 8-point favorite. Northern Kentucky (18-4) has won six games in a row with their 73-60 win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. |
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01-31-19 | Cal-Irvine v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 133 | Top | 66-62 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UC-Irvine Anteaters (647) and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (648). THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (17-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 82-64 win over UC-Riverside last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. UC-Santa Barbara (15-4) has won seven of their last eight games with their 82-71 win at Long Beach State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. |
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01-31-19 | Cleveland State v. Detroit -5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Detroit Mercy Titans (606) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (605). THE SITUATION: Detroit Mercy (8-13) has lost three straight games after their 80-65 loss at IUPUI last Saturday as an 8-point underdog. Cleveland State (6-16) snapped their eight-game losing streak on Saturday with their 72-62 win over Youngstown State as a 1.5-point favorite. |
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01-30-19 | UCLA v. Washington State +4.5 | Top | 87-67 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (836) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (835). THE SITUATION: Washington State (8-12) has lost three straight games as well as nine of their last ten games with their 78-58 loss at Oregon on Sunday as a 13-point underdog. UCLA (11-9) has won three games in a row with their 90-69 blowout win over Arizona on Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. |
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01-30-19 | Memphis v. Tulsa +2 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (810) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (809). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (12-9) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 77-65 loss to Houston as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (13-7) has won four of their last five games with their 77-57 win over Central Florida as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. |
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01-29-19 | Georgia v. Arkansas UNDER 153.5 | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 1 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (603) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (604). THE SITUATION: Georgia (10-9) snapped their four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 98-88 upset win over Texas as a 4.5-point underdog. Arkansas (11-8) has lost five of their last six games with their 67-64 loss at Texas Tech as a 10-point underdog on Saturday. |
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01-28-19 | TCU v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 65-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (856) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (855). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (16-4) snapped their three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 67-64 win over Arkansas as a 10-point favorite. TCU (15-4) has won two straight games with their 55-50 win over Florida as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. |
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01-27-19 | UCF v. Memphis -1 | Top | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (834) minus the point(s) versus the Central Florida Knights (833). THE SITUATION: Memphis (12-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 85-76 loss at Temple as a 5-point underdog. Central Florida (15-3) has won their last two games after their 75-50 win at Tulane as a 12-point favorite on Wednesday. |
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01-26-19 | Arkansas v. Texas Tech -9.5 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (700) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (699). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (15-4) has lost three straight games after their 58-45 loss at Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Arkansas (11-7) snapped a four-game losing streak on Wednesday with a 72-60 win over Missouri as a 6.5-point favorite. |
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01-25-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +5.5 | Top | 69-46 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 40 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (852) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (851). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-7) has lost five straight games after their 73-67 loss at Northwestern on Tuesday as a 2-point underdog. Michigan (18-1) bounced-back from their first loss of the season at Wisconsin by defeating Minnesota back in Ann Arbor by a 59-57 score as a 12.5-point favorite on Tuesday. |
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01-24-19 | St. Mary's v. BYU +1.5 | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (664) plus the point(s) versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (663). THE SITUATION: BYU (12-9) saw their three-game winning streak on Saturday with their 82-63 loss at San Francisco as a 7-point underdog. Saint Mary’s (13-7) has won four straight games with their 76-59 win over San Diego as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. |
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01-24-19 | Samford v. Wofford OVER 146.5 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Samford Bulldogs (673) and the Wofford Terriers (674). THE SITUATION: Samford (12-8) has lost four of their last five games with their 93-87 loss to Mercer as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Wofford (15-4) has won six games in a row with their 59-54 win over Furman as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. |
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01-23-19 | Missouri v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 0 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (822) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (821). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (10-7) has lost four straight games with their 84-67 loss at Ole Miss on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Missouri (10-6) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 66-43 loss at Texas A&M as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. |
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01-22-19 | Central Michigan v. Akron -6.5 | Top | 67-70 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (614) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (613). THE SITUATION: Akron (10-8) has lost three of their last four games with their 68-61 loss at Miami (Ohio) as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Central Michigan (14-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 83-72 loss to Ball State on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. |
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01-21-19 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (862) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (861). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (9-9) snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with their 72-66 win over Florida Atlantic as a 10.5-point favorite. Marshall (12-6) has won five in a row with their 105-97 win over Florida International as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. |
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01-17-19 | Texas-San Antonio v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 144.5 | Top | 86-89 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (621) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (622). UTSA (10-7) has won seven straight games with their 76-74 win over North Texas as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Middle Tennessee (3-14) has lost three straight games after their 73-56 loss at Louisiana Tech on Saturday as a 13-point underdog. |
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01-17-19 | James Madison v. Delaware -3.5 | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Delaware Blue Hens (610) minus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (609). James Madison (12-7) had won four in a row before their 71-58 loss at the College of Charleston as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday. James Madison (9-9) has won two straight games after their 74-65 win over Towson on Saturday as a 4-point favorite. |
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01-14-19 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 146 | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). THE SITUATION: Florida State (13-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 80-78 loss to Duke as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Pittsburgh (11-5) has also lost two of their last three contests with their 86-80 loss at NC State on Saturday as an 11-point underdog. |
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01-11-19 | Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (804) minus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (803). Northern Kentucky (13-4) has won five of their last six games with their 95-73 win at Detroit last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Wright State (8-9) looks to build off their 89-73 win at Oakland last Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. |
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01-10-19 | South Alabama v. Arkansas State -2 | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (638) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (637). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (7-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 85-75 loss at UL-Monroe as a 7.5-point underdog. South Alabama (9-6) has won five of their last six games with their 84-77 win over Coast Carolina as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. |
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01-09-19 | Marquette v. Creighton -3 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (800) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Panthers (799). Creighton (10-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 84-69 loss at Butler as a 4.5-point underdog. Marquette (12-3) has won nine of their last ten games after their 70-52 win over Xavier on Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. |
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01-08-19 | Iowa State v. Baylor +2.5 | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (606) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (605). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (12-2) has won five straight games after their 77-60 win over Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor (8-5) looks to bounce-back from their 85-81 loss at TCU as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. |
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01-04-19 | Ball State v. Toledo OVER 151.5 | Top | 79-64 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Ball State (9-4) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 116-57 win over Delaware State last Saturday as a 29.5-point favorite. Toledo (12-1) looks to build off their 77-45 win over Penn on Saturday as a 4-point favorite. |
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12-31-18 | Northern Colorado v. Portland State OVER 155 | Top | 73-60 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (7-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 70-65 victory at Sacramento State as a 2-point favorite. Portland State (5-6) has lost three straight games with their 76-71 loss to Cal-State Bakersfield as a 1-point favorite back on December 20th. |
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12-29-18 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -3 | Top | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (650) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (649). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (9-3) has five straight games after their 78-74 upset win at Maryland last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. St. John’s (12-0) remained undefeated this season last week with their 104-82 win over Sacred Heart as a 20-point favorite. |
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12-28-18 | Texas-Arlington v. Texas UNDER 136 | Top | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (4-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak last Friday with their 75-70 win at Cal-Poly SLO in a pick ‘em contest. Texas (7-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Friday in a 71-65 upset loss to Providence as a 7-point favorite. |
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12-11-18 | Colorado v. New Mexico +5 | Top | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (606) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (605). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (4-3) looks to bounce-back from an 85-60 loss on Friday to Saint Mary’s as an 8.5-point underdog in the Hall of Fame Classic that was played at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Colorado (7-1) has won five straight games with their 84-72 win over Illinois-Chicago last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. |
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12-07-18 | New Mexico +9 v. St. Mary's | Top | 60-85 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (525) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (526). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 100-65 loss at in-state rival New Mexico State as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Saint Mary’s (5-4) has won two straight games with their 93-61 win over Bethune Cookman as a 19.5-point favorite on Tuesday. |
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12-06-18 | Maryland v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (708) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (707). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) has lost two straight as well as three of their last four games after their 76-57 loss at Michigan last Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Maryland (7-1) enters this game coming off a 66-59 win over Penn State last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. |
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12-05-18 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 144 | Top | 77-67 | Push | 0 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-1) enters this game coming off their 79-59 win over Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Illinois (2-6) has lost their last two games with their 75-60 loss at Nebraska as a 13-point underdog at Nebraska. |
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11-28-18 | North Carolina v. Michigan -3 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (762) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (761). THE SITUATION: Michigan (6-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-55 win over UT-Chattanooga last Friday as a 32.5-point favorite. North Carolina (6-1) comes off a 94-78 win over UCLA last Friday in the consolation match of the Las Vegas Invitational. |
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11-22-18 | Auburn v. Arizona UNDER 152.5 | Top | 73-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
At 11:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). THE SITUATION: Auburn (4-1) lost in the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational last night by a 78-72 score to Duke as 11-point underdogs. Arizona (4-1) then lost in the Semifinals of this tournament to Gonzaga by a 91-74 score as an 11-point underdog as well. |
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11-20-18 | Arizona v. Gonzaga -10 | Top | 74-91 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (748) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (747). THE SITUATION: Arizona (4-0) reached the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational with their 71-66 win over Iowa State last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (4-0) matched that achievement by defeating Illinois by an 84-78 score last night as a 15.5-point favorite. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (601) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (602). I have joked that they may cancel the game on Monday since it seems as if Villanova has already been coronated as National Champion after easily winning what many dubbed the de-facto championship game against Kansas. If the Wildcats come close to going 13 of 26 from behind the arc against the Wolverines in the first-half like they did against the Jayhawks, then they will be crowned champion. Then again, if Maryland-Baltimore County goes 13 of 26 from downtown, they would likely defeat even this Villanova team. Successful handicapping over the long-term is about maintaining perspective — so here are some things to keep in mind. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan (33-7) ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. Remember, while the Wildcats scored at a 1.34 Points-Per-Possession rate on Saturday, it remains Michigan who had the most explosive offensive effort in this tournament when they scored at a 1.38 PPP rate against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. And if the Wolverines approach making 50% of their 3-point shots, they will most likely be cutting down the nets. The potential Villanova emotional letdown is compounded by playing an outstanding defensive team with the Wolverines now ranking 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency — and defense is more consistent than 3-point shooting from game-to-game. Michigan is an eye-popping 14-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They swept a Michigan State team that many had also coronated as the inevitable National Champion — and that Purdue team they played three times with a healthy Isaac Haas that I thought might have been the best team in the country. John Beilein’s complicated offense is very difficult to prepare for with a short turnaround in tournament action. And while the Wolverines have not been an underdog since the Big Ten Tournament when the oddsmakers expected the Spartans and Boilermakers to defeat them, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Furthermore, I have seen at least one advanced analytics projection site that project this to be a 2-point game based off the metrics since January between these two teams based on their numbers against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. We are certainly getting the value with the underdog tonight. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Villanova (35-4) made 13 of their 26 shots from behind the arc in the first-half on Saturday en route to their 95-79 win over Kansas. The memories of the Wildcats’ explosive first-half while making 55.4% of their shots and scoring 95 points against the Jayhawks will compel many bettors take expect another high scoring game and take the Over. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. I expect both teams to be nervy in this game given the pressure of the moment. Both of these teams also sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense — so the tempo of this game can quickly become a slower, half-court affair. The Wolverines only rebound 25.6% of their missed shots which is 270th in the nation. And while Villanova ranks 149th in the nation with a healthier 29.4% offensive rebound rate, that number dropped significantly to a 25.2% mark in Big East play. The Wildcats have covered all five of their games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova has also played 7 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to just 62.9 PPG, Villanova has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas +5 v. Villanova | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (813) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (814). Villanova (34-4) has covered the point spread in all four games as the favorite so far in the NCAA Tournament after their 71-59 win over Texas Tech on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. But Red Raiders’ head coach Chris Beard may have discovered a flaw in the Wildcats’ offense as they host just 33.3% from the field while making only 4 of their 24 (16.7%) of their shots from behind the arc. Villanova head coach Jay Wright admitted as much this week — and Kansas’ Bill Self will certainly steal elements from that Texas Tech defensive plan. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova may very well win this game but I am expecting a very close game between these two heavyweights. The Wildcats have some weaknesses which will make it difficult for them to cover a 5-point or so point spread against elite competition. They are too dependent on shooting 3s which account for 47.1% of their field goal attempts — and they will be facing a Jayhawks’ team that holds their opponents to making just 32.7% of their 3-point attempts. Villanova does not do much in generating possessions if their 3s are not falling. They only pulled down 25.2% of their missed shots in Big East play while only forcing turnovers in 17.5% of their Big East opponent’s possessions. The Wildcats do not get to the free throw line either as they own an anemic 29.8% free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio with that ranking 281st in the nation. On defense, this Villanova team ranks 14th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency at 94.6 — but that number was a much higher 105.7 in conference action. The Wildcats defense has struggled against playmaking guards — and Kansas has two of those. With their tallest rotational player being the 6’8 Omari Spellman and only going 6 or 7 deep in their rotation, this team has vulnerabilities. Furthermore, this basketball program has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the Semifinals in tournament action. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155 | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). This is an interesting clash between two teams that love to attempt 3-point shots. Kansas (31-7) is attempting more 3-pointers than ever under Bill Self with 41.4% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc which is 80th in the nation. Jay Wright has been having his team take advantage of the 3-point shot for years now — this year’s Wildcats are attempting 47.1% of their shots from 3-point land which is 14th most in the nation. This importance on the 3-point shot extends to the defensive end of the court where both teams emphasize defending against these shots. The Jayhawks hold their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from inside the arc while Villanova limits their opponents to just a 32.2% field goal percentage from 3-point land. I see these similar styles clashing to produce a lower scoring game between these two heavyweights that will be feeling the pressure of the Final Four. Kansas made only 43.5% of their shots on Sunday in their 85-81 win in overtime over Duke as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks have then played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 85 points. Kansas made 13 shots from 3-point land against the Blue Devils after making 10 shots from behind the arc in their previous game against Clemson — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in each of their last two games. Additionally, while the Wildcats outscore their opponents by +16.4 PPG, the Jayhawks have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG. |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (812) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811). Loyola-Chicago (32-5) pulled off their fourth straight upset victory in the NCAA Tournament with their 78-62 win over Kansas State last Saturday. The Ramblers were lights out from the field by making 57.4% of their shots which was tied for their best shooting performance in their last nine games. They also held the Wildcats to just a 34.8% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort in their last four contests. While this Cinderella with Sister Jean has been a great story for the sports media, the bubble will likely burst in a big way for this team on Saturday under the pressure and focus all week of the Final Four. This is a team that is not used to this type of scrutiny and attention. They also have not played a team all season as skilled as these Wolverines. Even in getting to the Final Four, Loyola-Chicago has had a fortuitous draw. In their four wins over Miami (FL), Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State, the highest-ranked team according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics were the Volunteers at 13th in the nation. Their best non-conference opponent was Florida that currently ranks 20th in the nation by Pomeroy. For comparison’s sake, Michigan has played six games against teams that Pomeroy ranks in his Top-Nine: Michigan State (twice), Purdue (three times) and North Carolina. As it is, the Ramblers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after an upset win by double-digits. And while they made 55.8% of their shots in their previous game against Nevada, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 55% of their shots in two straight contests. Furthermore, Loyola-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with five or six days of rest. |
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03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Colorado OVER 157.5 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Northern Colorado (25-12) reached the Championship Game of the College Insider Tournament on Wednesday with their 99-80 win over Sam Houston State as a 10.5-point favorite. The Bears made 59% of their shots in that game — they are torching the nets to close out the season by making 52.7% of their shots over their last five games. They are scoring 89.9 PPG on their home court this season while making 49.9% of their shots. Northern Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on their home court Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, not only have the Bears played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 points in their last game but they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Northern Colorado made 17 of their 30 (56.7%) shots from behind the arc on Wednesday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Sky Conference. |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah +4.5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (712) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (711). Penn State (25-13) was on fire from behind the 3-point line on Tuesday as they nailed 11 of their 20 shots from downtown en route to their 75-60 blowout win over Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite. But such a strong effort might have set up the Nittany Lions for a letdown in this Championship Game — especially with them laying a handful of points. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory by at least 15 points. The Nittany Lions went into halftime with a 42-23 lead as those first 20 minutes of the game being the most important moments of that contest. However, Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. Additionally, the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 55 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game — and this includes five of these last eight situations. Furthermore, Penn State has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests. But the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight contests. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games including five of these last six situations. |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Liberty -5 | Top | 67-51 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (724) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (723). Illinois-Chicago (19-15) reached the Semifinals of the College Insider Tournament with their 83-81 upset win at Austin Peay last Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. The Flames nailed 10 of their 23 (43.5%) shots from 3-point land to help them pull the upset. That came on the heels of their 84-61 win over St. Francis-PA where they made 10 of 24 (41.7%) shots from 3-point land. Illinois-Chicago has then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games. They are only shooting 34.9% from 3-point land when on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance for this team tonight. Furthering that thought, while the Flames have scored at least 83 points in their last games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last two contests. Additionally, while Illinois-Chicago has scored at least 75 points in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. Now this team stays on the road where they are being outscored by -3.8 PPG. They were fortunate to see Austin Peay miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc — but Liberty was 2nd in the Big South by making 38.8% of their 3-pointers this season. Illinois-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Another concern for this team — made more worrisome when they are playing in hostile environment — is their looseness with the basketball as they ranked 312th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.8% of their possessions. This is another area that Liberty can take advantage of as they forced turnovers in 19.1% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play. This also helps illuminate why Illinois-Chicago is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-27-18 | Mississippi State v. Penn State UNDER 136 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Mississippi State (25-11) reached the Semifinals of the NIT with their 79-56 upset win at Louisville as a 6-point underdog last Tuesday. The Bulldogs held the Cardinals to just a 35% field goal percentage in that game. This Mississippi State plays very good defense — they rank 31st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their last five opponents are shooting just 40.1% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Mississippi State has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning three straight games — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 56 games on the road Under the Total after winning three straight games. Additionally, while the Bulldogs have played their last two games on the road as an underdog, they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight games on the road as a dog. Furthermore, Mississippi State has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (742) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (741). North Texas (18-17) reached the Finals of this Best-of-Three College Basketball Invitational tournament with their blowout 90-68 win over Jacksonville State. We had the Mean Green in that game — and it was very nice to see them make a season-high 61.5% of their shots in that contest. But this is a team that shoots only 42.6% of their shots away from home — and they will be playing a Dons’ team that place tough on the defensive end of the court by holding their visitors to just a 41.9% field goal percentage. As it is, North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 48 games after a game where they made at least 50% of their shots — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in six of their last seven games after nailing at least half their shots in their last contest. This is an improving young team under first-year head coach Grant McCasland. They had previously blown out Mercer on their home court by a 97-67 score in their previous game in this tournament. But the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after registering two straight blowout wins by at least 20 points. The offense has exploded for them to score at least 90 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight contests. Quick first-half efforts have helped this team as they have raced out to score 57 and 47 points in the first 20 minutes of their last two contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 first-half points in two straight games. Playing in a hostile environments has been an issue for this team — and they turn the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions in Conference USA play which was 12th in that conference. Furthermore, the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing their their last two games on their home court. |
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03-25-18 | Duke -2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (721) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Kansas (30-7) reached the Elite Eight with their 80-76 win over Clemson on Friday. But now this Jayhawks team gets exposed against a superior opponent with more talent and a more reliable system of play in the Blue Devils. These Jayhawks are not one of Bill Self’s better teams. They lost five games in Big 12 conference play but continued their regular season title streak in large part due to the injury of Texas Tech’s Keenan Evans which triggered the Red Raiders’ four-game losing streak. Kansas’ problems start on defense where they ranked just 46th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency which is the first time they were outside the Top-24 going back to at least 2002 (kenpom’s data does not go farther back). They were 6th in the Big 12 with Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 108.9 which projects that opponents would score at a 1.09 Points-Per-Possession rate. They only outscored conference opponents by +0.04 PPP. Even worse, because this team plays with four guards, they face a matchup nightmare when encountering a team with multiple big men. Hello, Duke with Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter. It is simply a matchup nightmare that 6’8 Svi Mykhailiuk and his 205-lb frame will be required to play defense against either the 6’11 Bagley at 234 lbs or Carter at 6’10 and 259 lbs. The Jayhawks were 7th in the Big 12 by allowing their opponents to make 51.2% of their shots inside the arc. Kansas is likely to get destroyed on the boards as well as they allow their opponents to make 31.5% of their missed shots which is 295th in the nation. The Blue Devils rebound 39.2% of their missed shots which is the top mark in the country. Furthermore, the Jayhawks do not specialize in getting more scoring opportunities in offensive rebounding nor forcing turnovers — and they are awful at getting to the free throw line with a free throw rate which is 329th in the nation. When they do get to the charity stripe, they made only 69% of these shots in Big 12 play (12th in the conference) — and they have a severe liability there with Udoku Azubuike who shoots a mere 41.1% from the line. The Blue Devils do a fine job of defending inside the arc — they hold opponents to just a 45.3% shooting mark with their 2-point shots (17th in the nation) and that mark lowered to a 44.1% mark against ACC foes. To win this game, the Jayhawks will have to make a bunch of 3s — and they do take 41.0% of the field goal attempts from behind the arc. But Duke defends the perimeter quite well using that 2-3 zone which pushes those 3-point attempts farther back — they ranked 20th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point field goal percentage of 31.9%. I just don’t think the Jayhawks have enough diversity in their scoring options outside 3-point shooting. As it is, this team is due for a letdown. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 6 points or less — and after their 4-point win over Seton Hall in the Round of 32, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two straight by 6 points or less. Furthermore, Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games if they have won at least twelve of their previous fifteen games (12-3 in their last 15) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least four straight games. |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 144.5 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Texas Tech (27-9) has won five of their last six games with their 78-65 upset win over Purdue on Friday. The Red Raiders made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was actually the best offensive performance in their last five contests. They also held the Boilermakers to just a 44.8% shooting percentage which sounds pretty good (especially against an offensive powerhouse like Purdue) — yet that was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. Texas Tech is a defense-first team that likes to play at a slower pace. They average 66.7 possessions per game which is the 247th fewest in the nation. Chris Beard’s team is 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While they are facing a Michigan team that scores 87.0 PPG, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that score at least 84.0 PPG. The Red Raiders have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total in Tournament action — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in the last 42 games on the road with no more than one day of rest, they have played 28 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (516) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (515). Florida State (23-11) pulled off their second straight upset victory on Thursday when they stunned Gonzaga by a 75-60 score as a 6-point underdog. We had the Bulldogs in that game — and we were very disappointed to discover the news that Gonzaga’s star sophomore Killian Tillie was unable to play in that game due to an injury he suffered in practice. That was a fortunate set of circumstances for the Bulldogs — but their bubble looks ready to burst tonight against a very balanced Wolverines team that can match them with their depth. As it is, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games as an underdog. Florida State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. I think the Seminoles’ head coach Leonard Hamilton is very underrated — I was very impressed with his tactics and demeanor in the second-half of their upset win over Xavier last Sunday. The strength of this team is their depth — they played ten players on Thursday who logged in at least ten minutes. But Michigan matches that depth. Lets ignore their blowout win over Texas A&M on Thursday given their big lead. In their buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday, the Wolverines had eight players log in at least 10 minutes with a ninth player in Jaaron Simmons being a fifth-year senior who was the best player for Ohio last year who still grabs a few minutes a game as the third point guard in their rotation. The Seminoles simply do not do enough things well to compete against an elite unit like these Wolverines. Their defense was mediocre at best in the ACC where they ranked 13th in Adjusted Efficiency. They allowed ACC foes to make a whopping 40.4% of their 3-point shots which was 14th in the conference. On offense, they made only 33.0% of their 3-pointers which was 13th in the ACC. Florida State generates much of their points from drawing fouls as they led the ACC in free throw rate. But John Beilein teams generally do not commit many personal fouls. This year’s Michigan team is fouling more than in previous seasons — but they are still only averaging 16 personal fouls per game. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after 15 games into the season against teams that did not commit more than 17 personal fouls per game. Furthermore, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests. |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1 v. Kansas State | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
At 6:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) plus (or minus if the point spread moves before tip off) the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (514). The similarities between these two teams just begins with the notion that neither of these 11th seeded and 9th seeded teams in the South Region were expected to reach the Elite Eight. Both of these teams are extremely well coached groups that emphasize defense first while playing at a slow pace. Neither team emphasizes rebounding although the Ramblers do a much better job in protecting their offensive glass. The Wildcats create more scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers — but the Ramblers counter that by being very good with their 3-point shooting. Loyola-Chicago (31-5) has the edge in this matchup. Three of their losses were without junior point guard Clayton Cluster available — so they are actually 31-2 when he is healthy and on the court. With five upperclassmen in their rotation, the Rambers are an experienced group. And this Loyola-Chicago team just has more reliable ways to generate offense. The Ramblers are 15th in the nation with a 39.9% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they also make 56.6% of their shots inside the arc (12th in the nation) with an intricate set of patient but effective maneuvers that helped them put on a shooting clinic in the second-half of their 68-68 victory over Nevada on Thursday. Loyola-Chicago has pulled off three straight upset victories in this tournament — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset victory. Additionally, the Ramblers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court. And in their last 8 games as an underdog, Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread 7 times. |
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03-24-18 | Central Michigan v. Liberty -2.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (518) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (517). Liberty (21-14) has won four of their last five games after their 65-52 win over North Carolina A&T way back on March 12th as a 12-point favorite. The Flames will benefit from the extra time off as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 boarded games when playing with at least seven days of rest. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 boarded games after a point spread win. The Flames went into halftime with a low-scoring 23-21 lead in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight boarded games after failing to score at least 25 points in the first half of their last game. Liberty gets to host this game on their home court where they are 11-6 this season with an average winning margin of +12.8 PPG. They hold their visitors to scoring just 58.7 PPG on a low 38.8% field goal percentage at home. The Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Liberty does an outstanding job of protecting their defensive glass — they are second in the nation by rebounding 80.1% of opponent’s missing shots. This will frustrate the Chippewas who led the Mid-American Conference in offensive rebounding. Additionally, Liberty has held their last five opponents to just a 35.3% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 boarded games as the favorite. |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:57 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (873) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (874). Purdue (30-6) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-73 win over Butler as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The Boilermakers won that game despite being without their anchor in the middle in Isaac Haas who suffered a broken elbow in their previous game against Cal-State Fullerton. His presence was missed in the middle as the Bulldogs made 60% of their shots inside the arc. Purdue does have a capable backup at center in another seven-footer in Matt Haarms — but the problem is that he cannot log a ton of minutes. He played 29 minutes against Butler which meant that the Boilermakers which left them very vulnerable inside the arc for those remaining 11 minutes. Depth is now a significant issue for this team that was riding high using four perimeter players surrounding their two seven-footers that head coach Matt Painter rotated between. As it is, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. I have two other concerns for this team. First, they are now even more dependent on their 3-point shooting after losing a player in Haas who was leading the nation in post-up points. Purdue takes over 40% of their shots from behind the arc — and while they have made 43% of these shots so far in the Big Dance, they are now facing a Red Raiders team that holds their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark behind the arc (41st in the nation). Second, the Boilermakers do not protect their defensive glass as opponents pull down 27.9% of their missed shots (137th in the nation). Texas Tech crashes the glass as they pull down 33.2% of their misses (45th in the nation). Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘e, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests. |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas UNDER 143 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Clemson (25-9) reached the Sweet 16 with their 84-53 upset win over Auburn on Sunday. The Tigers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just a 25.8% shooting percentage in what was their best defensive effort of the season. Clemson should be able to maintain this level of defensive intensity — they rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and have held their first two NCAA Tournament opponents to 32% shooting. The Tigers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games while playing 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. It is on offense where the Tigers are likely to receive a visit from the Regression Gods after they made 51.6% of their shots in their first two games in the Big Dance including nailing 16 of their 40 (40%) shots from behind the arc. Clemson is not a strong offensive team — they ranked 11th in the ACC in Adjusted Efficiency. The Tigers shooting inside the arc has been the biggest surprise as they made 46 of their 80 (57.5%) 2-point shots after making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc in ACC play which ranked 10th in the conference. The season-ending injury to their best player in 6’9 Donte Grantham has really hurt the offensive effectiveness of this team. With Grantham on the court, Clemson was making 56.6% of their shots inside the arc — but without him, they see that number drop to just a 45.4% slip for their 2-pointers. They were scoring 77 PPG before Grantham’s injury but that number dropped to a 68 PPG clip for this team before they began the Big Dance. The Tigers benefited from playing New Mexico State and an Auburn team that suffered their own challenging season-ending injury in Anfernee McLemore who their best post defender. Moving forward, the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in non-conference play. |
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03-22-18 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 75-60 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (819). Gonzaga (32-4) has won sixteen games in a row after they outlasted Ohio State on Sunday with their 90-84 win as a 4-point favorite. The Bulldogs won that game despite their experienced veterans not playing particularly well in that game. Sophomore Rui Hachimura and freshman Zach Norvell combined to score 53 points in that game despite not being in the rotation for Mark Few for this team last year that made their run to the National Championship Game. Look for the Gonzaga veterans to play better tonight. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning at least ten straight games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. This is an outstanding team on both ends of the court as they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have enjoyed good starts in each of their last three games as they entered halftime with leads of 11, 9 and 9 points in each of their last three games. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after owning halftime leads of at least 5 points in each of their last three games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — including covering the point spread in three straight games when favored on a neutral court by 6 points or less. |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (818) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (817). Michigan (30-7) has won eleven straight games with their 64-63 buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. The Wolverines on the game despite making only 35.6% of their shots in that game which was their worst offensive performance of the season. Michigan also made only 8 of their 30 shots from behind the arc (26.7%) which was far below the 37.3% mark they enjoyed from 3-point range in Big Ten play. Given the Wolverines credit for doing what was necessary to win their two games played in Wichita despite not playing at their best. Don’t be surprised if this team plays much better tonight — they face an opponent in these Aggies that match up very well against them. As it is, Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Wolverines have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. This is a good pairing for this Michigan team because Texas A&M does a great job in taking away second chances for their opponents on offense with their outstanding frontline. But the Wolverines sacrifice offensive rebounding with getting back on defense. However, Michigan does commit themselves to protecting their defensive glass: they are 3rd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 8.0 PPG in Second-Chance Opportunities — and that mark has dropped to just 7.0 PPG on Second-Chance-Opportunities in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral court. |
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03-21-18 | Utah v. St. Mary's -6.5 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (767). Saint Mary’s (30-5) has won six of their last seven games after defeating Washington on Monday as an 11-point favorite to advance to the Quarterfinals of the NIT. The Gaels are tough to beat when they get their offense going as they have in this tournament. They made 56.4% of their shots in their win over the Huskies on the heels of making 59.3% of their shots in their 89-45 blowout win over Southeastern Louisiana in the opening round of the NIT last Tuesday. Saint Mary’s have then covered the point spread in a decisive 49 of their last 67 home games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 85 points their last two games. The Gaels have the luxury of staying at home for this contest which will be their last game on their home court this season before the Semifinals are played in Madison Square Garden. This is the third straight game that Saint Mary’s was the home favorite in this tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after playing their last two games at home as the favorite. The Gaels are 18-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +17.8 PPG. Saint Mary’s makes 51.1% of their shots at home while limiting their opponents to just 60.9 PPG on low 41.7% shooting. Additionally, the Gaels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 opportunities to play a team from the Pac-12. |
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03-21-18 | Jacksonville State v. North Texas +1 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (778) plus (or minus) the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (777). North Texas (17-17) is playing its best basketball of the season in March as they followed up a 13-point win at South Dakota in the opening round of the College Basketball Invitational with their 96-67 blowout win over Mercer as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Sophomore Roosevelt Smart has continued his breakout season by averaging 32.5 PPG in this tournament but he is being joined by junior guard Jordan Duffey who is finding his own rhythm with this team after scoring 31 points while nailing 6 shots from behind the arc in that win over the Tigers. First-year head coach Grant McCasland deserves a tremendous amount of credit for continuing to lead his team to improvement this season. He inherited a Mean Green team that was 8-22 overall while winning only two of their eighteen conference games. But this North Texas team was 8-10 in Conference USA this season including the suffering of three tough losses in a 6-point loss at Middle Tennessee along with an overtime loss at home to Western Kentucky and a 2-point loss to Marshall. McCarsland pulled off a similar feat last season when he led Arkansas State to a 20-12 mark after they were just 11-20 in the previous season. This Mean Green team is very motivated to continue to build momentum for next season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. UNT has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game as an underdog. The Mean Green opened as a small favorite in this game — but the line movement has them a small dog now in many spots. Regardless, North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home in expected home games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outside Conference USA. |
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03-20-18 | Mississippi State v. Louisville OVER 144 | Top | 79-56 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667) and the Louisville Cardinals (668). Mississippi State (24-11) has won two straight games — as well as three of their last four games — with their 78-77 upset win at Baylor on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Mississippi State has also played a decisive 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. |
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03-19-18 | Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 143.5 | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (621) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (622). St. Mary’s (29-5) reached the second round of the NIT last Tuesday with their 89-45 win over Southeastern Louisiana as a 14.5-point favorite. The Gaels torched the Lions by making 59.3% of their shots which was the best offensive effort in their last eight games. This game shapes up to be more of a defensive struggle. St. Mary’s has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 30 points. Additionally, the Gaels have paled 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread. Furthermore, this team has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. St. Mary’s gets to host this second round game where they are holding their opponents to just 59.8 PPG on 40.9% shooting. The Gaels have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total on their home court. And in their last 5 games against non-conference opponents, St. Mary’s has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-19-18 | LSU v. Utah -5 | Top | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (620) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (619). Utah (20-11) has won 2 of their last three games after their 69-59 win over Cal-Davis in the first round of the NIT last Wednesday as a 12-point favorite. The Utes are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after an ATS loss. Utah gets to host this Second Round game where they are 14-3 with an average winning margin of +12.5 PPG this season. This Utah team plays very good defense — they are holding their visitors to just a 47.1% shooting percentage. They host a Tigers team that was last in the SEC in offensive rebounding with a 25.1% rate that was last in the conference. That is a good thing since the Utes were 10th in the Pac-12 in defensive rebounding. LSU was 12th in the SEC on free throw rate while only making 33.4% of their missed shots (8th in the SEC). What the Tigers do best on offense is make shots inside the arc as they were 3rd in the SEC by making 52.3% of their 2-point shots. But Utah ranked 2nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 47.1% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Utes are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games — and they are 41-14-2 ATS in their last 57 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. |
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03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (722) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (721). Marshall (25-10) upset Western Kentucky last week to win the Conference USA Tournament — and they pulled that feat off again on Friday when they upset Wichita State despite being a 13.5-point underdog with their 81-75 victory. Dan D’Antoni and his up-tempo system that seeks to maximize offensive efficiency — like what his brother Mike does as the head coach of the Houston Rockets — has received much adulation over the last two days. But the Thundering Herd look primed for a big letdown now. Somehow, this amazing “system” has never helped his brother reach even the NBA Finals with any of the various teams he has coached. And somehow, the Thundering Herd had lost ten times this year before finding magic in these last two games. But Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning at least five straight contests. Additionally, that victory over the Hilltoppers was another close call by just one point — and the Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last two contests by 6 points or less. Frankly, this is now a bad matchup for Marshall as they are playing another team that excels in the efficiency formula for success. The Thundering Herd shoot 45.4% of their shots from behind the arc despite making only 35.7% of those shots. They thrive inside the arc where they make 56.0% of their 2-point shots which is 19th best in the nation. But the Mountaineers hold their opponents to just a 45.7% of their shots inside the arc (29th in the nation). Furthermore, Marshall sacrifices rebounding for the fast pace they want on both ends of the court. The Mountaineers are vulnerable to teams that pound the offensive glass (not Marshall) — but they pull down 36.7% of their missed shots which is 4th best in the nation. The Thundering Herd are 308th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.0% of their misses — and they have been out-rebounded by 15 and 10 boards in their last two games. Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after being out-rebounded by double-digits in two straight games. |
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03-18-18 | Syracuse v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 55-53 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (716) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (715). Syracuse (22-13) pulled off their second straight upset victory in this NCAA Tournament with their 57-52 win over TCU on Friday as a 4.5-point underdog. The bubble is about to burst for the Orange this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two straight games as an underdog — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three of the last four of those situations. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. And in their last 12 games after winning two straight games, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games |
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03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | Top | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531) and the Tennessee Volunteers (532). Tennessee (28-8) played perhaps their best defensive game of the season on Thursday in their 73-47 win over Wright State. The Volunteers held the Raiders to just a 31.7% shooting percentage which was their best defensive performance of the season. Expect another outstanding defensive effort from Rick Barnes’ team as they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 50 or less points in their last game. Tennessee has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Vols team boasts the nation’s 5th best statistical defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They should slow down this Ramblers’ juggernaut. Tennessee can be exploited on the offensive glass — they allow their opponents to rebound 31.3% of their missed shots which is 288th in the nation. But this Loyola-Chicago team sacrifices offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they only rebound 22.2% of their missed shots which is 332nd lowest in the nation. Of course, the Ramblers’ commitment to getting back on defense will frustrate the Volunteers who love to get their offense going on the fast break. Tennessee struggles in their half-court offense — they make only 47.2% of their shots inside the arc (282nd in the nation). Tennessee has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the Volunteers have played 9 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-16-18 | Syracuse v. TCU -4.5 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). TCU (21-11) enters the Big Dance on a two-game losing streak after they were upset by Kansas State as a 3-point favorite last Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament. Head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to bounce-back as the Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road after an upset loss. Furthermore, TCU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Horned Frogs are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. Much will be made about TCU’s ability to handle the Syracuse 2-3 matchup zone — but Dixon has plenty of experience matching wits with Jim Boeheim given his long tenure at Pitt. Dixon’s teams won fifteen of their twenty-one games against Syracuse over his tenure. Dixon’s teams always are well-schooled in making extra passes that serve to expose the holes that zone defenses inevitably leave. This Horned Frogs team is 7th in the nation in assisted field goal rate. It is telling that TCU won both their games this season against a Baylor team that also deploys a similar zone defense scheme. The Syracuse zone also leaves a very soft spot down low for offenses to crash the glass. I noted in Wednesday’s Report on the Orange to defeat Arizona State that this year’s Syracuse team was actually doing a better job in protecting their defensive glass. Yet this Orange team is still allowing their opponents to pull down 29.1% of their missed shots which is 203rd in the nation. These Horned Frogs can exploit that weakness as they rank 20th in the nation by rebounding 34.5% of their missed shots. TCU should overwhelm the Syracuse defense — they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. |
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03-15-18 | Montana +11 v. Michigan | Top | 47-61 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:50 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Montana Grizzlies (733) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (734). Michigan (28-7) has won nine games in a row — culminating with upset wins over Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive days to win the Big Ten Tournament back on March 4th. John Beilein is one of the best coaches in College Basketball — but this Wolverines team is not nearly as reliable when being asked to cover double-digit point spreads against feisty rivals. For starters, an emotional letdown should be expected for this team after playing underdog in those final two games to win the Big Ten Tournament. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after registering two straight upset losses. The long layoff is an issue for this team that led the Big Ten by averaging 24.8 shots from behind the arc per game while generating 43% of their offense from 3-point land. Playing on an unfamiliar neutral court for the first time in eleven days may mess with the accuracy of their long jump shots. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Now this team has the burden of the pressure of expectations against a potential Cinderella opponent. Remember, this team almost was upset by Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament where the Hawkeyes were able to rally back to force overtime. The Achilles’ heel for the Wolverines is their free throw shooting — they rank 329th in the nation by making only 65.7% of their shots from the charity stripe. Compounding this problem is that two of their key ball handlers in point guard Xavier Simpson and wing Charles Matthews make only 51.9% and 56.1% of their free throws. They made only 18 of their 32 (56.2%) of their free throws in that Iowa game — and this provides a blue print for Montana to keep their game close with the Wolverines. The other problem for Michigan against the Hawkeyes was that their two starting big men in Moritz Wagner and Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahman both fouled out in that game — and the interior depth for this team gets thin pretty quickly. The Wolverines avoided foul troubles against the Spartans and Boilermakers as they committed ten less personal fouls and five less personal fouls respectively in those games. But Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after committing at least five less personal fouls than their opponents in two straight games. Montana predicates their game on drawing fouls and winning the free throw battle — so this is a real area of vulnerability for the Wolverines. Furthermore, Michigan committed only 5 turnovers in their 75-66 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than 5 turnovers. Beilein-coached teams always do a great job in protecting the basketball — but they cannot expect to replicate their microscopic 7.8% turnover rate which was about half of their still outstanding rate for the season. |
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03-15-18 | Wright State v. Tennessee UNDER 132 | Top | 47-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
At 12:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (737) and the Tennessee Volunteers (738). I used to like taking Unders for these early tournament games on neutral courts in the Conference Tournaments — but too many bettors started latching on to that angle to squash much of the value in these investments. I had no early Unders for the Conference Tournaments (and I might have had an Over?) — but I do like the convergence of factors for this game to be lower scoring than expected between two teams with stout defenses but who can experience scoring droughts. And this game will tip off 11:40 AM local time in Dallas which may contribute to a groggy start for both teams. Wright State (25-9) is a defense-first team that ranked 30th in the nation by allowing only 65.7 PPG. Led by 6’9 freshman Loudon Love and 6’11 Parker Ernsthausen make it very tough for opposing teams to score inside — the Raiders’ ranked 26th in the nation by limiting their opponents to making just 45.6% of their shots inside the arc with that number dropping to just a 44.3% mark in Horizon League play. This strength compels them to play at a slow pace where they are quite content to grind out low-scoring games. This Wright State team has a low effective field goal percentage of 49.0% ranking 254th in the nation — and they make only 34.0% of their shots from behind the arc which ranks 221st in the nation. Only Grant Benzinger makes more than 36% of his shots from 3-point land This team plays as if the first team to 65 points wins — they averaged only 64 PPG in their nine losses this year. They won the Horizon League Tournament with their 74-57 win over Cleveland State — and they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And while that game finished Over the 126.5 point total, the Raiders have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing an Over. They limited the Vikings to only 4 offensive rebounds in that game to continue their strong protection of their defensive glass as they ranked 38th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down just 25.0% of their missed shots. Wright State has then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. And in their last 10 games against teams outside the Horizon League, Wright State has played 7 of these games Under the Total. |
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