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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans -7 | Top | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 79 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on the Houston Texans (8:20 EST). These two teams are trending in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue on the short week. The Dolphins are reeling, losers of three straight, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit last weekend, while the Texans are surging, posting their fourth straight victory with a convincing 20-7 road win at Jacksonville. Last week Miami was out gained 457-322, including allowing a whopping 248 rushing yards. QB Ryan Tannehill has 972 passing yards and a weak 8/5 TD/INT. But he’s been injured the last two games and he’s questionable for this one as well, meaning the volatile Brock Osweiler will likely start here and he has six TDs, two INTs and he’s also been sacked six times. The Dolphins are also without Cameron Wake, who is out having knee surgery last week. Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson will look to take advantage. He so far has 1,937 passing yards with ten TDs and seven INTs. Lamar Miller leads the ground attack with 371 yards and a TD. WR DeAndre Hopkins has 707 yards and four scores this year as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Miami is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Texans. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -4 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:15 EST). It’s “do or die” essentially for both teams. The Falcons come in off a much needed home win over the Buccaneers and they’ll look to win two in a row for the first time all year and once and for all extinguish any hopes for Giants fans this season. The Giants’ are getting poor defensive play and their aging QB Eli Manning is unable to make the same throws that he used to. That has led to a “rift” between him and his main WR Odell Beckham Jr. The one bright spot for New York has been the play of rookie RB Saquon Barkley, who topped 100 yards rushing in last week’s loss, but who also had 99 receiving yards. Atlanta catches a break this week defensively facing New York’s incredibly one-dimensional offense. Last week Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan threw for 354 yards and three TD’s. Over his last four games Ryan has posted 1,432 passing with an incredible 12/0 TD/INT ratio while completing a whopping 73.2 percent of his passes. Atlanta has plenty to be positive about, as it does in fact only sit 2 1/2 games behind the Saints for the division lead. And with upcoming games against “bottom tier” competition (including Cleveland), the Falcons will look to deliver the “knock out blow” to the Giants early in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that New York is still just 3-6 ATS in its lsat nine as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the same points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Bengals +6 v. Chiefs | 10-45 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* Sunday Magic is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:20 EST). This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top and because of that, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Cincinnati will be hungry to get back into the winners circle here after a 28-21 loss at home to Pittsburgh, while KC looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its 43-40 loss in New England last Sunday night. The Bengals are averaging 29 PPG and they’re conceding the 23rd most points. QB Andy Dalton has 1,674 passing yards and a respectable 14/7 TD/INT. The Chiefs are averaging 35.8 PPG, but they’re 32nd in the league in total yards allowed per game. I’ll point out as well that the Bengals are already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog and 6-3 ATS in their last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while KC is still only 1-3 ATS in its last four against the AFC North. After a hard-fought loss to the Pats, I think the Chiefs are “running on empty.” I like the Bengals high-flying offense to keep this one competitive. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys +2 v. Redskins | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST). Washington sits atop the NFC East, but each team comes in with identical 3-3 records. To say this is an important game would be an understatement. Washington has looked great at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others this season. Dallas has struggled, but it broke out in a big way last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over into this one. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott led his team to a 40-7 win over Jacksonville last week, going 17 of 27 for 183 yards and two TDs. WR Cole Beasley had two TD catches and 101 yards on the night. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards rushing and a 15-yard TD run as well. The Dallas defense looked great, limiting the Jags to just 204 yards of total offense, while also forcing two turnovers. Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and conceding 17.2. The Redskins are averaging 21.2 PPG and conceding 20.8. Last week they held on for a 23-17 victory over the Panthers as Alex Smith would go for 163 yards and two TDs. RB Adrian Peterson would post 97 yards on 17 carries. I’ll point out though that Washington is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the NFC East and only 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory. Dallas on the other hand is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. The Boys have covered in five of the last seven in this series and the underdog has covered in 30 of the last 40 meetings. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears UNDER 49.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -109 | 142 h 31 m | Show | |
My 9* Total is on the under Pats/Bears (1:00 EST). New England enters off a high-scoring shoot-out victory at home over the Chiefs and I think it’ll be more conservative here in this difficult road venue Sunday afternoon. Chicago sports one of the best defensive fronts in the league with pass rusher Khalil Mack leading the charge. The Pats now also have a legitimate RB threat in Sony Michel, who I expect to see a lot of action today. Last week he had 106 rushing yards with two TD’s. Last week the Dolphins’ Brock Osweiler had 380 passing yards and two TD’s against Chicago. But performances like that have been few and far between for the Bears’ defense and a return to form in this important game and on home field is imminent in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that New England has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of its last 26 as an underdog and in 11 of its last 17 at home. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Panthers +4.5 v. Eagles | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 141 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). Carolina comes in off a 23-17 loss to the Redskins on the road, while the Eagles enter off a 34-13 road win over the Giants (I had Philly in that one.) Note that this is a revenge game for Carolina as Philadelphia won 28-23 on the road last year. Overall the Panthers are averaging 24.2 PPG and conceding 22.8. RB Christian McCaffrey has 349 yards and he leads the fourth ranked rushing unit in the league. In last week’s loss Cam Newton was solid in defeat with 275 yards, two TD’ and an INT. Philadelphia looked a lot better last week, but I’m going to caution in reading too much into the victory over the hapless Giants. Newton and the Panthers are an entirely different “animal.” Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was a stand-out last week with 278 yards, three TDs and no INTs. Overall Philadelphia is averaging 22.8 PPG and conceding 19.5. I’ll point out thought agh Carolina is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while Philadelphia is only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The Panthers desperately need a road victory to keep pace with their division and I think they catch the defending champs “flat footed” here. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs -3 | Top | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 142 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST). Tampa looks to get back on track at home after three straight losses and take advantage of a Browns team which enters off a blowout loss at home to the Bolts. Baker Mayfield’s numbers have declined steadily each game he’s played. He doesn’t have much help either throwing to the likes of Antonio Callaway, Jarvis Landry and Damion Ratley. Note that no pass catcher has more than one TD on the team. For the record, Mayfield has four TDs and five INTs. Last week he was held to 47.8 percent passing with one TD. Tampa comes back home desperate for a win as well after last week’s 34-29 loss to the Falcons. The defense has fallen apart of late, allowing 439.8 YPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break to bounce back this week facing Cleveland’s anemic attack. The Bucs’ offense looked a lot better with Jameis Winston back under center last week though and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Note as well that Tampa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game, while Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 on the road. I think this is going to be a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-18 | Broncos -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 79 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* “Loser’s Night Out” is on the Denver Broncos (8:20 EST) Denver is on the road to face Arizona desperate for a victory after dropping four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams. Arizona beat the 49ers, but then it predictably came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-17 road loss in Minnesota. Denver’ QB Case Keenum has 1,647 yards with seven TD’s and eightt INT’s this year. Philip Lindsay has been a standout on the ground with 346 yards and a TD, while Royce Freeman has 272 yards rushing with three TD’s. The Cards have been splitting time at QB between Josh Rosen (626 yards, two TD’s, two INT’s and seven sacks) and Sam Bradford (400 yards, two TD’s, four INT’s and six sacks.) David Johnson has 297 yards and five TD’s. Denver closed strong last week though and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Broncos are the more “skilled” team across the board and note that they’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Cards on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight at home. I have a hard time seeing Arizona’s offense producing against Denver’s aggressive defense. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -102 | 34 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* Total Wipeout Winner is the under 49ers/Packers (8:15 EST). The 49ers come in off a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals. After losing starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo to injury three weeks ago and sitting at just 1-4, San Francisco’s season is essentially over. If the 49ers hope to turn things around, the last thing they can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with Aaron Rodgers and company. The Packers have been trading good starts with bad. After a 22-0 win over the Bills, they took a step back in last week’s 31-23 setback to Detroit. But the Green Bay defense has a big opportunity to redeem itself here against San Francisco back-up QB CJ Beathard, who for the most part has struggled in his forced started role. Additionally note that San Francisco has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six off a loss against a division rival, while Green Bay has seen the total go under in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 158 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 6 las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET. KC is so far unbeaten (5-0), but I think that string finally comes to an end in this difficult road venue. Last week the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 at home. Patrick Mahomes was average, throwing for 313 passing, two INT’s, while also running for a TD. After a 1-2 start, the Patriots have now won two in a row, most recently smashing the Colts 38-24 on October 4h. QB Tom Brady was phenomenal in the victory with three TDs, while rookie RB Sony Michel had 98 yards rushing and a TD as well. A loss would top the Pats three games behind KC and potentially two behind the Jags, while also being two grind the Bengals. New England’s success over the years has counted on earning the bye in the first week of the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this has become a “must win” game for New England if it hopes to keep that string of success alive. Note as well that the Patriots have won ten straight home games since a 33-30 loss to Carolina in Week 4 of 2017. New England has in fact averaged 34.3 points and 425.3 yards in three home wins this year. And finally note that New England is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after reposing more than 350 yards in its previous game. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Patriots. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +3 | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 144 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST). I believe the more “desperate” team will win here. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott’s ability is being called into question and I believe the beleaguered pivot will respond with his best performance of the season. The Jags come in off a tough 40-14 road loss at Kansas City and they now have to muster up the energy for another difficult road match-up this week. Dallas enters off a 19-16 OT loss at Houston last Sunday. The Jags are averaging only 20.5 PPG and they’re conceding 17.4. QB Blake Bortles has 1,525 passing yards and a weak 8/7 TD/INT. RB Leonard Fournette has struggled with a hamstring issue and it’s clearly effected the chemistry of the offense. Dallas is averaging only 16.6 PPG and it’s conceding only 19.2. Prescott had 961 passing yards with five TDs and four INTs, while also running for 121 yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot has 480 yards and two TDs. I’ll point out though that Jacksonville is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite, while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of three points or less range. I think Elliot and the home side defense delivers a victory for Jerry Jones on Sunday afternoon. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Chargers v. Browns OVER 44 | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 141 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Goin Over Total is on the over Chargers/Browns (1:00 EST). Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. LA enters off a convincing 26-10 him win over Oakland, while Cleveland posted a 12-9 OT home victory over Baltimore. Last year Philip Rivers beat the Browns 19-10 at home and he’d pass for 344 yards and a TD. LA comes in averaging 27.4 PPG and it’s conceding 26. The margin for victory is slim. Rivers though has a sparkling 13/2 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland is averaging 22.8 PPG and it’s allowing 22.6. RB Carlos Hyde now has 348 rushing yards and five TD’s. The Browns defense looked superb last week against a poor passing game (Joe Flacco), but I think the unit will have its hands full today against Rivers’ arial assault. Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3 and in four of its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Additionally note that LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite. I think this number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 141 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). I think this spread could in fact be a lot larger considering all of the great situational factors working in favor of the desperate Falcons today. Atlanta is just 1-4 overall after three straight loss to the Saints, Bengals and Steelers. Tampa started the season well, but it stumbled with two straight losses before its bye week. Now Tampa welcomes back starting QB Jameis Winston to the fold, after Ryan “Fitz-Magic” predictably came back down to Earth after a couple of big games to start the year. The Bucs’ weakness on defense? Their pass rush and defending the pass. Jason Pierre-Paul has four sacks and nine QB hits, however Tampa is still tied for 26th in sack rate after five weeks. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan is still seventh in the league with 1,601 passing passing yards. The Falcons will look to take advantage of a Tampa team which has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with losing home records and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road overall. I think Winston will go through some “growing pains” in his debut and I believe it’s also worth noting that the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 in this series as well. Lay the points, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -102 | 142 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). The Jets broke a two-game slide with a 34-16 win over Denver last week. QB Sm Darnold was just 10 of 22 for 198 yards, but he also had three TD’s. The big difference offensively was the run game, which posted 323 rushing yards. Darnold has a weak 7/6 TD/INT and he’s looked brilliant at times this year and very much like a rookie in others. Overall the Jets are averaging 24.6 PPG and conceding 21. Indianapolis comes in off a 38-24 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. QB Andrew Luck had 365 passing yards, three TDs and two INTs. TE Eric Ebron finished with 105 yards and two TDs. So far Luck has a strong 12/5 TD/INT. The Colts have come out on the short end of the stick this season, as they’ve been outscored by four points per game on average. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 23.6 PPG and conceding 27.6. Additionally I’ll point out that Indianapolis is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive losses, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of three points or less. I think Luck is the difference here. The Colts finally get over the hump here and find a way to punch one into the win column. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 77 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* NFC East Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST). While they’ve struggled to this point, I still think that the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles have the better QB, defense and special teams in this match-up and I look for them to find a way to get the job done on the short week. Philadelphia has yet to win on the road this year, but the Eagles are still 5-3 SU their last eight away from friendly confines. Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. Note that Wentz has two or more TD passes in ten of his last 12 games. With Jay Ajayi now out for the rest of the year, look for Wentz and Zach Ertz to step up here. Overall the Eagles are allowing 20.8 PPG and only 343.2 yards. New York’s ground game is averaging only 75.6 YPG. Rookie Saquon Barkley has looked brilliant at times and poor in others. QB Eli Manning is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for six TD’s and three INT’s. Home field advantage has been anything but for New York though, which is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home. The Eagles though loving coming to “The Big Apple,” as evidenced by their sharp 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 played in New York. Additionally note that Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three Thursday night games, while New York is 0-2 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints OVER 52 | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 35 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Skins/Saints (8:15 EST). The Saints will be opening up the playbook today in an attempt to get QB Drew Brees at least 201 passing yards. Brees is on the cusp of becoming the league’s all time passing leader and I look for the veteran pivot to put on a show in front of the home town crowd today. So that means that the 2-1 Redskins, who come out rested after their bye week, and QB Alex Smith will be forced to match pace. And that suits Smith just fine. So far the veteran has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes for 767 yards with four TD’s and one INT. Smith has gotten plenty of help as well from RB Adrian Peterson, who is enjoying a resurgence in the Nation’s capital, so far with 236 yards and three TD’s. Brees so far has 75.8 percent of his passes so far this year to go along with 1,295 passing yards with eight TD’s and no INT’s. He’s going to benefit greatly today as well from the return of bruising back Mark Ingram. The combo of Ingram and Alvin Kamara makes the Saints offense extremely dangerous, as opposing defenses are forced to stay honest. I’m not expecting a lot of defense being played by either side. Not that New Orleans has seen the total go “over” the number in 21 of its last 31 games after a straight up victory of more than 14 points, while Washington has seen the total go over nine of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout, one which is going to be decided by whichever of these hungry team’s has its hands on the ball last. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 152 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* SNF MAGIC is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:20 EST). Both teams got back into the win column last week. Each will be as equally hungry this week for another victory. I’m expecting an all out war until the final whistle. Dallas enters off a 26-24 home win over Detroit last week to even its recent at 2-2. RB Ezekiel Elliot was unstoppable, going for 152 yards rushing, four catches for 88 yards and also a TD. QB Dak Prescott was 17 of 27 for 255 yards and two TD’s. On the defensive side, Cowboys DE DeMarcus Lawrence had three sacks last week. Houston is still on the ropes despite last week’s victory, sitting at 1-3. DeShaun Watson had 375 yards, two TD’s and an INT in an exhausting 37-34 OT win over Indianapolis. De’Andre Hopkins had 169 yards and a TD. I’ll point out though that Houston has really struggled in this spot for bettors, going 0-6 ATS in its last six off a win against a division rival (also note that it’s a poor 8-9 ATS In its last 17 at home), while Dallas has in fact excelled in this position by going 10-7 ATS in its last 17 on the road (despite being 0-2 ATS this year) and 6-3 ATS in its last nine against teams with losing records. This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to be the one which comes out on top. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -114 | 148 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). To “be the champ” you have to “beat the champ.” That’s the old saying right? Seattle hasn’t really been the “top dog” in the NFC West for a couple years now, but no team has really stepped up to dominate the No. 1 slot. It’s been in limbo until this season, as clearly the 4-0 Rams are the “cream of the crop” of the division, the conference and perhaps the league at this point. However, this will be LA’s chance to officially and once and for all take full control as the division leader and I look for the high-powered Rams to do just that. Rams’ QB Jared Goff already has 1,406 yards, 11 TD’s and just two INT’s, while RB Todd Gurley II has 338 rushing yards and four TD’s. WR Brandin Cooks has 452 receiving yards, while Cooper Kupp has 348 yards and four TD’s. Overall the Rams are averaging 35 PPG and conceding just 16.8. Seattle comes in off a much tougher than expected 20-17 win at Arizona last week. QB Russell Wilson has 888 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s. RB Chris Carson has 177 yards on the ground, while WR Tyler Lockett has 249 yards and three TD’s. Overall the Hawks average just 21.2 PPG, while allowing 20.3. The Rams come in well rested after playing last Thursday and they have all the motivation in the World this week to put one more nail in the Seahawks’ coffin this season. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 148 h 51 m | Show | |
My 9* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Raiders/Chargers (4:05 EST). Oakland comes in off a 45-42 home win over Cleveland, while LA held on for a tough 29-27 victory over San Francisco. After both teams played to higher-scoring “shoot-outs” last weekend, I’m expecting a much more defensive “chess match” in Week 5. Raiders’ RB Marshawn Lynch had a big game against the Browns, going for 130 yards. He now had 300 yards rushing and three TD’s. LA is 18th against the run, so look for Jon Gruden to establish the run game throughout tonight. The weakness in Oakland is on the defensive side, but I think the unit bounces back this weekend. The Chargers can’t be happy with the way they performed last week, facing the 49ers and a back-up QB as a 14 point fav, they barely held on for the victory. Philip Rivers continues to be a bright spot for the Chargers, he has 11 TD’s and two INT’s. I’ll point out though that LA has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten against teams with losing records, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in ten of its last 13 against the division. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Falcons +3.5 v. Steelers | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Both teams are desperate for a victory and I’m expecting an all out battle until the end. Atlanta is 1-3 overall and it’s coming off consecutive home losses to New Orleans and Cincinnati. The Steelers have struggled as well this year, most recently coming off a humbling loss at home to the Ravens. Atlanta is 28th in the league on the defensive side of the ball, but it did look somewhat better in the second half of its 37-36 loss to the Bengals. The offense took a step back last year, but it’s now the team’s strength. Matt Ryan and company will be given the green light here today obviously to test this suspect Steelers’ secondary. The Steelers have been dealing with on field and off field issues all year. Note that Pittsburgh isn’t going to have star RB Le’Veon Bell back until Week 8 against Cleveland and his backup James Conner is averaging just 3.7 YPC. With such a one-dimensional offense, the Falcons’ defense definitely catches a break this week. I’ll point out as well that ATL is still 7-3 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Pittsburgh is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Giants +7 v. Panthers | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 145 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST). The New York Giants’ season is on the line, as a 1-4 record would almost assuredly be too much for it to dig out of to make the playoffs. Last week the Giants fell 33-18 at home to the Saints. QB Eli Maning so far has 1,055 yards with four TD’s and one INT, wile RB Saquon Barkley has 260 rushing yards and three TD’s. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has 331 receiving yards. The offense has been the weak point to this point, but the defense has kept the team competitive each week. The Panthers are clearly the “better” team, but they come in off their bye-week and think that “rest” is going to lead to “rust.” QB Cam Newtwon has 646 yards with five TD’s and one INT, while also rushing for three more TD’s. RB Christian McCaffrey has 271 yards on the ground. Fortunately for the Giants, the Panthers only average 23.7 PPG. Also note that Carolina is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-2 ATS In its last seven as an underdog in the same points range. I think the Giants’ defense once again keeps them in this one. Grab the points, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 82 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New England Patriots (8:20 EST). I had a play on New England last week in its 38-7 win over the Dolphins. A short week is tough on both teams, but doubly so for the road side. The Pats come in off a confidence building win and they’ll be out to build off that victory and take advantage of this favorable spot against a dejected Colts team which comes in off a 37-34 OT loss to the Texans. The Colts rallied from a 28-10 hole, but in the end it wasn’t enough and after that heart-breaker, I don’t believe the team has had enough time to collectively re-group to face New England. QB Andrew Luck has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s so far, but he’s also been sacked nine times. Pats’ QB Tom Brady has 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. He’s been sacked six times. Note that the offense gets a major boost here as well with the return of main WR Julian Edelman from his four game suspension. TY Hilton is listed as questionable for the Colts and if he does manage to suit up, one has to wonder what type of form he’ll be in? I’ll point out that the Colts are a poor 12-15 ATS in their last 27 as the underdog, while the Patriots are a superb 29-12 in their last 41 as the favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on New England. Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Denver Broncos (8:15 EST). The bookmakers are leading us to believe that Kansas City will continues its blistering start to the season with another massive offensive performance on the road and on the National stage. I’m not convinced though. A “letdown” is imminent at some point for Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs, and the thin air of Mile High will prove to be the difference in my opinion. Outright upset? Of course it’s not out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever one of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. The Chiefs are 3-0, but the Broncos are 2-1 and they aren’t going down without a fight tonight. Here is an amazing fact, and one which I believe will catch up to Kansas City today, as note that it’s been out-gained in all three games that it’s played in so far this year. Denver ran out of gas against Baltimore in Week 3 after holding a 14-10 lead after one quarter. Mahomes and the Chiefs played in Denver in Week 17 last year and he wasn’t his best, going 22 of 35 for 281 yards and an INT. KC won the game 27-24. I’ll point out as well that KC is still just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3.5 v. Steelers | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 133 h 32 m | Show | |
My 9* MAGIC is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST). Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over Tampa Bay, but I think it’ll take a predictable step back here. Baltimore lost to Cincinnati, but it bounced back big last week against the Broncos and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has struggled so far this year, but he now faces a porous Pittsburgh defensive front which is allowing 122.3 YPG on the ground to opposing offenses. QB Joe Flacco continues to look great at times and poor in others. Pittsburgh managed to put together its best effort of the season in last week’s victory over Tampa Bay. WR Antonio Brown had 50 yards receiving and a TD. Ben Roethlisberger looked great last week, but he’s always had his hands full with the Ravens’ pass rushers. Note as well that Pittsburgh is a poor 8-10 ATS in its last 18 at home and only 5-7 ATS In its last 12 against the division, while Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the division and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3. I think the Ravens take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Browns +3 v. Raiders | 42-45 | Push | 0 | 147 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Cleveland Browns (4:05 EST). I had a play on the Browns last Thursday night and I think they’ll keep this one competitive here as well. Cleveland comes in off its first win in two years against the Jets after Baker Mayfield replaced Tyrod Taylor. Oakland on the other hand is ripe of the picking, dejected and still searching for its first win of the season. Jon Gruden is rich, but he obviously can’t be happy where his team is currently sitting. Last week Mayfield was 17 of 23 for 201 yards. He didn’t throw a TD, but I think he’ll have plenty of chances today against this suspect Raiders’ secondary. Oakland has given up an average of 374.3 yards and 28 points on average this year. QB Derek Carr has averaged 312 passing yards per game, but note that he has three more INT’s than he does TD’s to this point. RB Marshawn Lynch has been a bright spot with 170 yards and three scores. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home. The Browns don’t have too many positive ATS stats after such a long losing streak, but as mentioned off the top, I do absolutely feel that the pieces are in place for Cleveland to continue progression across the board. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Jets v. Jaguars OVER 38 | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 144 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Jets/Jags (1:00 EST). It’s an important game for both teams. I think this total will eclipse the number as it comes down the stretch. New York comes in off a 21-17 loss to Cleveland. The Jets had a 14-0 lead, but they were unable to hold on down the stretch. Overall though the Jets have been competitive this year, averaging 25.7 PPG and conceding 19.3. Sam Darnold has 701 passing yards, three TD’s and five INT’s through three games. Jacksonville beat the Patriots and then it fell flat in last week’s 9-6 loss to Tennessee. QB Blake Bortles had 155 yards passing. So far the Jags are averaging 19.0 PPG and allowing just 14.7. I’ll point out though that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 17 at home, while New York has seen the total fly over the posted number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records. These are two under-performing offenses which come in with something to prove. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST). It’s been a lack-lustre start for the Pats, while everything has gone right for the Dolphins to this point. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home team. And there’s no doubt that’s the case in this one in my opinion, as Tom Brady and New England will be out to atone for last week’s disastrous 26-10 road loss to Detroit (I had the Lions in that one, my Week 2 LEGEND.) I think this is a classic letdown spot/trap game for Miami though after starting the year 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The run game only posted 41 yards though. The Dolphins’ defense also allowed 345 passing yards last week. Overall Miami is averaging 25 PPG and allowing 17.3. Brady was 14 of 26 for 133 yards, one TD and one INT last week. RB Sony Michel had 50 yards rushing last week. The defense conceded 414 total yards and overall the unit is allowing 25.7 PPG. I’ll point out though that Miami is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 8-4 ATS in the same position (also 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.) Brady was embarrassed last week and he’ll be out to destroy the Fish to make amends. Look for the veteran super star to put together his biggest game of the year and lay the points with confidence. Play on the Pats. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Lions +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST). My Week 3 LEGEND was on Detroit last Sunday night and it came away with the convincing win over the Patriots. I think the Lions carry that momentum over here. Dallas is a mess and I think it’s ripe for the picking. So far it’s scored the fewest points through its first three games of a season since 1990. Last week the Cowboys fell 24-13 to Seattle. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 127 yards, but QB Dak Prescott was just 19 of 34 for 168 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Prescott has been a disaster, not throwing for more than 170 yards in any game so far while posting a miserable 33.7 QBR. The Cowboys’ defense took a blow last week as well when DL Tyrone Crawford and safety Jeff Heath both left with injury. So far Dallas averages 13.7 PPG, while allowing 17.7. Detroit is averaging 393.3 YPG, but just 23.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 29.3 PPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break this week facing the punchless Cowboys’ offense. Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was 27 of 36 for 262 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was held to just 133 yards, one TD and one INT. Note as well that Dallas is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 on field turf, while Detroit is 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight against a team with a losing record. Detroit’s offense looked good last week and I expect it to be a difference maker in tho sone as well. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 79 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Vikings (8:20 EST). Outright victory? Anything is possible. Just ask the Vikings, who were 17 points favorites at home over the lowly Bills last week and they’d end up falling 27-6. Minnesota handled a dangerous 49ers team 24-16 in Week 1 and then laid everything on the line in a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2. Clearly the Vikes were still hung over from that divisional battle and while there’s definitely some room for concern, I’m not going to over-react to one poor game. Minnesota has been the cream of the crop over the last two years, so I’m expecting an immediate return to competitive form on both sides of the ball here. The Rams are 3-0 to start the year and I think they come in complacent. Everything’s gone right for LA to this point, while the Vikes at 1-1-1 are not happy at all. In fact, another loss and Minnesota’s season will be on the line for all intents and purposes. There’s no question in my mind who this game means more too. Overall the Vikes are ranked 14th in the league in offense, while LA is ranked fifth (although those defensive numbers are skewed because of the shutout win over the Cardinals in the early going.) Last week the Rams allowed 300 yards passing, and note that Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in passing with 305.7 YPG. LA had three picks last week, but doing so again against Kirk Cousins will be much more difficult. LA has a strong one-two punch with QB Jared and RB Todd Gurley, but the Vikes’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 84.8 YPG last season. The Vikes’ pass defense is strong as well, giving up just 237 yards to the Niners and only 253 to Aaron Rodgers, while also sacking him four times. Is it important that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC West? It doesn’t hurt anyways. Also note that LA is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU wins. Grab the points, play on the Vikes. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Everything has gone right for Tampa to this point, while everything has gone wrong to Pittsburgh in the early going. Despite that being true to this point, I think the now desperate Steelers behind their Hall Of Fame QB will find a way to get the job done here. And that’s because it’s virtually impossible to even make the Playoffs, let alone contend for the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-3. The Steelers gave up 21 points to the Browns in Week 1’s tie, but it allowed 42 points in the blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 2. Pittsburgh’s defense has long been a strength of the team, but clearly those days are in the rear view mirror. Still, the unit does have talent and I don’t think it’s nearly as horrible as what it showed in the loss to the Chiefs. Tampa’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed almost 80 percent of his passes over the first two game salong with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. The Bucs have caught their first two opponents “off guard,” but I don’t think that’s going to be the case here today against a hyper-focused Steelers unit which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after last week’s embarrassing performance. The Steelers are desperate and they’ll be leaving everything they have on the field of play today to try and secure their first win of the season. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road favorite of three points or less, while TB is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions +7 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 151 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Detroit Lions (8:20 EST). An outright victory? I wouldn’t be shocked. In the end though I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. New England is ripe for the picking in my opinion after it’s listless 31-20 road loss at Jacksonville last week. And the Lions will be looking to take advantage, they come in desperate at 0-2 after falling 30-27 in San Francisco last weekend. Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 234 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has a 5/1 TD/INT and 511 yards passing after two games. Rookie RB Sony Michel made his debut last week and he had 34 yards on ten carries. TE Rob Gronkowski had just two catches for 15 yards. So far the offense is averaging just 23.5 PPG, ranked 16th. The defense is allowing 25.5, ranked 20th. Note that offensive standout Julian Edelman will not be in this one once again, as he is still serving his four game suspension. New England’s defense looked especially poor last week though, giving up 481 total yards and four passing TD’s to Blake Bortles and a pretty mediocre Jags’ offense. Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 347 yards and three TD’s in last week’s loss. So far though he has a poor 4/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Golden Tate was a bright spot in a losing cause as he had 109 receiving yards in the setback. So far Detroit’s offense has averaged 22 points, while the defense has conceded 39 PPG. That’s last in the NFL by a long shot, but with their season on the line, I think the Lions put it all together today with their best effort yet. Brady is an amazing talent, but his offense is in shambles. So is his offensive line and his defense has more questions than answers. Detroit’s new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat and with another loss the Lions can already start looking ahead to next season. I’ll point out as well that the Pats are in fact a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a losing home record. Detroit’s pass defense has been its strength on that side of the ball, allowing an average of just 168 per contest. New England is very one-dimensional with Brady obviously. As mentioned off the top, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-18 | Bengals +3 v. Panthers | 21-31 | Loss | -108 | 144 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST). Cincinnati comes in off a confidence building 34-23 home win over Baltimore last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Carolina comes home off a deflating 31-24 road loss in Atlanta. Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 265 passing yards with four TD’s. Dalton so far has 508 yards and a 6/1 TD/INT ratio. RB Joe Mixon has been lost to injury, meaning that veteran RB Giovani Bernard is “the next man up.” AJ Green had a monster game last week and so far the offense has posted 34 points in each of its first two victories. The Bengals’ rush defense is ranked fourth in the league after two weeks, as Geno Atkins already has three sacks. Overall Cincinnati has given up an average of 23 PPG early. Cam Newton had 335 passing yards with three TD’s for the Pantehrs last week and so far he has a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. Newton has plenty of weapons to utilize, but TE Greg Olsen remains out with injury. Carolina has relied on its run game early, which doesn’t bode well facing the Bengals’ tough run unit. So far Carolina has averaged 20 PPG and conceded 19.5. I’ll point out that Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog, while Carolina is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and as such, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3 v. Dolphins | 20-28 | Loss | -100 | 144 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (1:00 EST). I don’t like either of these teams particularly, but I think the Dolphins are getting the job done right now with smoke and mirrors and I look for the hungry visiting side to keep it close. Oakland comes in off a tough 20-19 setback to Denver on the road, while Miami comes home contented off its 20-12 road win over the hapless Jets. The Raiders beat the Fish 27-24 in Hard Rock Stadium last year and I think a similarly hard fought battle is in the cards here as well. Oakland was blown out by the Rams in Week 1, but it looked a lot better in Week 2, despite the losing effort. It’s all or nothing though for the Raiders in Week 3, as virtually no team can even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. Raiders’ QB Derek Carr had 298 yards and a TD, but it wasn’t quite enough last week. But I do think it will be enough this week against a complacent 2-0 Miami team. This sets up as a classic “trap” game early in the season for the Dolphins and I think they’re going to fall right in. Note that Miami is a terrible 16-45-3 ATS in its last 64 home games against teams with losing road records, while Oakland is a solid 4-1-2 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss. The Dolphins have struggled against the pass this year, so the door is open for Carr to shine and deliver the goods in this crucial situation. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright win obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Play on the Raiders. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 144 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Washington Redskins (1:00 EST). Green Bay comes in off a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Minnesota at home and now has to contend with a desperate Redskins team which enters off a 21-9 home loss to Indianapolis. Washington is ranked tops in the league against the pass, which clearly doesn’t bode well for injured QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been superb in the early going, but one has to question the veterans health early, as he wore a brace in the match-up with the Vikes last weekend. Overall the Packers are averaging 26.5 PPG and allowing 26. The Redskins are averaging 16.5 PPG and they’re allowing 13.0. Alex Smith had 292 yards through the air last week in a losing cause, but he now gets to face a Packers’ secondary which allowed Minnesota to throw for over 400 yards. Washington’s numbers are skewed. While averaging only 16.5 PPG, note that they’re still ranked 12th in total offense, including 14th in passing and 8th in rushing. The numbers don’t add up and I think we’ll see a massive correction here for the under-achieving Redskins. With the Bills at home next week, look for Rodgers and company to fold up their tents early in the Nation’s capital on Sunday afternoon. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans OVER 41 | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 144 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Giants/Texans (1:00 EST). I’m expecting these two under-achieving and desperate/hungry NFL teams to open up the playbook and put some points on the board this afternoon. New York enters off a 20-10 road loss to Dallas, while Houston lost 20-17 at Tennessee. The Giants are desperate here, as it’s virtually impossible to even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. QB Eli Manning had 279 passing yards last week, but he was sacked six times. New York has to open up the playbook today, it does not have the luxury of sitting back and hoping that things will start to click (averaging just 14 PPG over the first two, ranked 30th overall.) The New York defense has been a bright spot, but the unit faces an equally as hungry 0-2 Texans team today that’s out to make a statement in front of the home town crowd. QB DeShaun Watson had 310 passing yards in last weeks setback, with two TD’s and an INT. The Texans have also looked decent defensively in the early going, conceding 23.5 PPG. Admittedly these are two teams which do not play to many “overs,” but the overall “situation” that each finds itself in coming into this one points to more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a ground-and-pound “chess match” in my opinion. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (8:20 EST). New York won its season opener against Detroit, but it fell apart in last week’s loss to Miami. Cleveland lost its opener against the Steelers (a game it should have won), before then giving the Saints everything they could handle in Week 2. Ultimately though I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. New York QB Sam Darnold had 334 yards against the Dolphins last week. Drew Brees struggled against the Browns’ re-worked defense and I think Darnold will have a difficult time here as well in this unfriendly road venue. The Browns forced six turnovers against Pittsburgh in their opener as well, including three INT’s. Cleveland QB Tyrod Taylor has looked decent under difficult circumstances so far and I don’t think that there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t continue his progression here as well. I’ll point out as well that the Jets are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a divisional contest. I think the short week does Cleveland a favor in Week 3. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears OVER 43 | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the over Hawks/Bears (8:15 EST). Neither team can sit back and hope the other one makes the first mistake. Neither can afford that luxury as each comes in desperate after starting the season 0-1. The Seahawks are going to have to open up the playbook today after losing WR Doug Baldwin to injury in last week’s 27-24 setback at Denver. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards on seven carries, while TE Will Dissly had three catches for 105 yards and a TD. Seattle QB Russell Wilson had a decent game with 298 yards, three TD’s, but also two INT’s. The Bears couldn’t hold on in Green Bay in Week 1, falling 24-23 in the end (after having a 24-6 halftime lead.) Chicago won’t be making that same mistake twice though as I expect the Bears’ offense to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. QB Mitchell Trubisky had 171 yards, while also running for 32 yards and a TD. The Bears looked great defensively in the first half (when QB Aaron Rodgers was sidelined with injury), but the unit didn’t look especially impressive in the second and in the eventual collapse. I’ll point out as well that the Seahawks have seen the total go over the number in on their last two Monday Night Football games, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of their last eight following a divisional contest. This one has all the makings of a wide-open shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the under Giants/Cowboys (8:20 EST). The Giants lost 20-15 at home to the Jaguars in Week 1, while the Cowboys fell 16-8 at Carolina. These two division rivals come into Week 2 desperate for a victory, as 90% of teams which have started 0-2 in the NFL over the last 30 years have failed to make the playoffs. Giants’ rookie RB Saquon Barkley had 106 yards and a TD last week. QB Eli Manning though was ineffective, going for 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT. As mediocre as the New York offense looked though, was as decent as the defense performed, limiting the Jags to just 305 total yards of offense. Keep your eyes on Janoris Jenkins, who led the team in tackles and had an INT as well. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott was 19 of 29 for 17 yards, while also losing a fumble in Week 1. In all Prescott was sacked six times. Note that dating back to last year Prescott has thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games. RB Ezekiel Elliot can’t do it by himself, as the Dallas offense has now turned completely one-dimensional. Note that the Giants have seen the total go under the number in 17 of their last 23 as an underdog, while the Cowboys have seen the total go under in 13 of their last 20 as the favorite. This number is a little bit high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 127 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmakers Error is on the over Pats/Jags (4:25 EST). Both teams come in off victories and each of those contests went “under” the number. Jacksonville has one of the most talented defenses in the league and New England’s unit isn’t far behind. All of that said though, I think that the visitors are going to push the pace of this one from the outset in an attempt to get the home side out of its comfort zone and in the end, I look for this total to sneak above this fairly low number once it’s all said and done. Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 277 yards and three TD’s last week. The defense looked sharp at home, but it’ll have a more difficult time this week I think in trying to slow down the combination of Leonard Fournette (or TJ Yeldon if Fournette can’t go. Yeldon had 69 yards last week), and Blake Bortles. Bortles had 176 yards, a TD and an INT in his team’s 20-15 road win over the Giants. I’ll point out as well that despite being considered one of the best defensive clubs in the league, the Jags have seen the total go over the number in three of their last four as a home dog of three points or less and in nine of their last 15 in front of the home town crowd overall. This is a big time revenge game for the Jags. They’ve lost 11 of 12 in the all time series, including a 24-20 setback in the AFC title game in January. The Jags need to take the fight to the Pats today. This one has the feel of a “shootout” to me. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-18 | Colts +6 v. Redskins | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 123 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can. The Colts come in off a 34-23 home loss to Cincinnati and they are the “hungrier” side here, as Washington returns home complacent after its 24-6 road win against Arizona. Indianapolis looked good for three quarters last week, but in the fourth it would give up 14 points. QB Andrew Luck looked decent though, going for 319 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall the Colts looked good offensively against a solid defensive club. Indianapolis was also decent defensively, as one of the Bengals’ TD came via the defense. Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD’s for the Redskins last week. Adrian Peterson had 96 yards rushing and overall the unit posted 182 on the ground. Washington looked sharp defensively in holding Arizona to just 213 total yards, but the unit clearly faces a much stiffer test against Luck, Ty Hilton and company. I think the Colts’ more competent passing game brings Washington’s defensive numbers back down to Earth. Indianapolis played well enough to win last week, but shot itself in the foot with costly turnovers and penalties. Look for a less rusty Luck to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Play on the Colts. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Divisional match-ups are always the most important in the NFL and for the most part, it almost always means more to the home side. And there’s no question that that’s the case today, as Carolina comes in at 1-0, while Atlanta is 0-1. The Panthers came out on top of the Cowboys 16-8 last week, forcing Dallas to go 0 for 5 on third down in the first half. The Dallas offense though is still trying to find itself, while the Atlanta offense is a well-oiled machine. And that machine mis-fired in the Week 1 loss at Philadelphia, as there were three trips inside the red zone which resulted in zero points. QB Matt Ryan was 21 of 43 for 251 yards, no TD’s and one INT. I’ll point out though that Carolina is just 2-4 ATS in its last six “dome” games and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 against the division, while Atlanta is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 dome games and 7-5 ATS in its last 12 against divisional foes. I look for the “hungrier” team to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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