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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 92-124 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* 32 Club Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:35 EST). It’s Kevin Durant vs. Kawhi Leonard. A four-time scoring champion vs. a do-it-on-both ends two-time reigning defensive player of the year. But beyond Durant and side kick Russell Westbrook, who does Oklahoma City have to rely on? San Antonio enjoys a massive skill advantage in its starting five and on its bench and I think this talent discrepancy will prove to be the difference in Game 1 and in this series. Besides Leonard, the Spurs also have veteran’s Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, who are now also joined by big man LaMarcus Aldridge who averaged 18 points and 8.5 board this year and who allowed Duncan to rest throughout the regular season. The Spurs also have the coaching advantage, Gregg Popovich is a five-time NBA champion and arguably one of the most successful of all time, while OKC’s Billy Donovan just won the first playoff series of his career in his first year in the league. It’s true that OKC scored 112 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting against the Mavericks in its first round, but San Antonio would hold the Grizzlies to 81 PPG on 39.4 percent shooting in its first round sweep. The Spurs’ defenisve specialists will be able to key on Westbrook and Durant and let the rest of the Thunder beat them, which as we’ve already touched upon will be next to impossible for the “thin” visitors to accomplish. I’ll point out that Oklahoma City was just 1-2 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest, while San Antonio was 3-1 ATS in the same position. Too much Leonard, too much Aldridge and too much Popovich, play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-16 | Hawks v. Celtics +2 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is the Boston Celtics (8:05 EST). Isaiah Thomas is banged up, but he’s been cleared to go for the Celtics and I think he’ll once again prove to be a difference maker this evening. So far home floor advantage has been pivotal in this series and I think that trend continues tonight. I had Boston in Game 4 and came back with the Hawks in Game 5 as my NBA Game Of The Year. The Celtics got out to a great start in Game 5 and I was a little worried, as they’d hold the Hawks to just 19 points over the first 18 minutes, but then Boston would have a mental letdown and allow the Hawks to score 70 over the next 18 minutes on their way to the 110-83 win. The Celtics though have to be feeling pretty confident today, Atlanta has lost ten straight playoff games in Boston since the 1988 Eastern Conference semifinals. The Celtics will be the hungrier team tonight, they’ll be desperate to avoid a third consecutive first-round exit, something which hasn’t happened since 1948-52. Evan Turner and Jonas Jerebko will once again be called upon to back up Thomas and to slow down Hawks’ star Paul Millsap. I’ll point out that Atlanta is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when leading in a playoff series and only 16-18 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more, while Boston is 2-1 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less and 23-14 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Play on the Celtics. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -7 | Top | 83-110 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is the Atlanta Hawks (8:35 EST). I played the Celtics in their Game 4 victory, but with leading scorer Avery Bradley once again expected to sit out due to injury and with the shift back to Atlanta for Game 5, I think Boston will come up short here. Look for the Hawks to make adjustments. Celtics’ coach Brad Stevens went to a smaller line-up in Game’s 3 and 4, so now it’s time for Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer to answer. Boston has done a good job on big man Paul Millsap, who was limited to four points over the final 14 minutes and none in OT, but note that he’d amassed 26 first-half points and finished with a playoff career-high 45 along with 13 boards. I think Millsap will continue his dominance today in front of the home town crowd, where the Celtics are 0-4 this season and who have lost their last six visits overall: “I just think we needed a little bit more with him, collectively from all of us, a little more to help Paul," Budenholzer said. "They responded to being down 2-0 and now we've got to go home and respond." I’ll point out that Atlanta is 10-6 ATS this year as a home fav of 6.5 to nine points, while Boston is just 2-3 ATS as a road dog in the same points range. The ebb and flow of momentum in the playoffs is a very real thing, home floor advantage has so far been crucial in this series and I fully expect that trend to continue tonight. My NBA Game Of The Year is the Atlanta Hawks. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-16 | Clippers -2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is the LA Clippers (10:30 EST). I played Portland in Game 3, but think the Blazers will once again take a step back tonight against the much deeper and more talented Clippers in Game 4. Portland star Damian Lillard and side-kick CJ McCollum were effectively shutdown by the Clippers in Game’s 1 and 2, but managed to find their rythym in Game 3, as Lillard had 32 points and McCollum had 25. I stated in my most recent play on the the Trailblazers that I thought the Clippers would win the series, but that it would not be a sweep and that Game 3 was the most obvious spot for Portland to bounce back in. A letdown though is now in the cards for the home side: “You just have to bring more energy," LA forward Blake Griffin said after his team’s predictable letdown. "They outhustled us, they were better on the glass, they got the 50-50 balls, they had more energy, they flew around. They executed their game plan." One player that Clippers fans never have to worry about it Chris Paul, the diminutive point guard is averaging 26.3 points, 8.3 assists and five rebounds. It’ll be all hands on deck for LA tonight, it would let a 3-1 advantage slip away vs. the Rockets in last year’s Western Conference semifinals loss: "Anything can happen, as it showed last year against Houston," Clippers guard J.J. Redick assessed last night. "On Monday we'll have an opportunity to go up 3-1." I’m backing the better team, play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-16 | Hawks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is the Boston Celtics (6:05 EST). The shift in venue was just what the doctor ordered for the Celtics and I look for them to carry over the momentum from their 111-103 Game 3 victory. Boston uncharacteristically struggled offensviely in Atlanta, but coach Brad Stevens went to a smaller line-up to try and counter the Hawks and the move paid huge dividends. Point guard Isaiah Thomas woudl go off for a career-high 42 points, while Evan Turner contributed 17 points, seven assits anf five steals. After getting to the line just 31 times over the first two games combined, the C’s would have 33 chances in Game 3. Boston has had issues in trying to guard Hawks’ big man Paul Millsap, but he’s struggling right now, totaling just 26 points so far in this series and shooting 4 for 21 in the last two games. The Hawks continue to struggle in this spot for bettors, they’re just 3-7 ATS in their last ten when leading in a playoff series. And note that Boston has done well in this spot all season, going 4-2 ATS as a home fav of three points or less. As I stated from the beginning of this series, I think the “home floor” advantage is a very real factor, look for Boston to make the most of it once again. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-16 | Clippers v. Blazers +2 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is the Portland Trailblazers (10:35 EST). With a shift in venue, I think the Trailblazers offense finally wakes up and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Portland averaged 105.1 PPG this season, but was held to just 88 points in both Games 1 and 2 of this series. Credit the Clippers of course, they’re doing a great job on both ends of the floor and while I do expect LA to ultimately win this series, I don’t think it will be a perfect sweep. It’s do or die for the Blazers, a 3-0 hole would obviously be too much for them to climb out of, but with a victory today the momentum would clearly be back on their side heading into Game 4. So far Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have been shutdown, but note that Portland finished on an 18-3 run at home since mid January and would go on to post the NBA’s third-highest home scoring average over that span at 111.9. LA has won five straight in this series, but note that the Clippers are just 4-9 ATS this year when playing with two days rest, while Portland is 10-5 ATS in the same position. Play on Portland. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-16 | Thunder -9 v. Mavs | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). I played Oklahoma City in Game 3 as I thought the Thunder would be in a pretty foul mood after falling 85-84 in Game 2 on Monday. OKC responded with a convincing 131-102 victory and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards tonight. The Game 2 loss was just what the doctor ordered as far as getting the Thunder refocused on the task at hand and with that reminder still fresh on the front of their minds, I don’t see another let down of that magnitude happening in this series. In fact, just the opposite, with the Mavericks dealing with several injury concerns, all signs point to another lop-sided mismatch. Keep your eyes on Thunder forward Kevin Durant, who made up for the worst game of his playoff career in Game 2, by scoring 34 points in Game 3, his 34th career 30-point playoff game. It was a collective effort in Game 3 though and I don’t expect anything to change here, as OKC would shoot 57.7 percent for an offesnive rating of 133.1 its highest of the season: “The way we won Game 2 was it was a slower-paced game for us, kind of grind it out," Mavs veteran Dirk Nowitzki lamented after the Game 3 setback. "It's going to be tough for us to win a game if they score 131 points. I don't think we can score 131 right now with the team we roll out there, the injuries." With a chance to take a strangle-hold on this series heading home, everything points to another beatdown. Play on the Thunder. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-16 | Warriors -5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-97 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is the Golden State Warriors (9:30 EST). For the Houston Rockets, playing against the Warriors must seem like the movie “Ground Hog Day.” Golden State was without Stephen Curry in Game 2, but would win for the 14th time in the last 15 in this series as Klay Thompson scored 34 points in the 115-106 victory. Swingman Draymond Green had 12 points, 14 boards and eight assists, while Shaun Livingston had 16 points in place of the injured Curry. Whether Curry plays or not, I love this play. Golden State is deep and it doesn’t need the league’s reigning MVP (soon to be two time MVP) in the lineup to beat Houston. James Harden and Dwight Howard have been horrible, they combined for eight of the Rockets’ 19 turnovers in Game 2. Howard has been especially atrocious, he seems disinterested and would commit five fouls in Game 1, before then fouling out in Game 2. The trio of Festus Ezeli, Andrew Bogut and Marreese Speights unquestionably have the advantage down low. I’ll point out that the Warriors are 22-18 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more, while the Rockets are just 21-29 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. Look for the champs to roll, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-16 | Thunder -8.5 v. Mavs | Top | 131-102 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (7:00 EST). Somehow the Mavericks pulled off an improbable 85-84 road win in Game 2. The price though was an injury to shooter Dirk Nowitzki, who will be in the line-up playing through a bruised right knee. Nowitzki now joins the rest of the Mavs’ walking wounded, as JJ Barea, Deron Williams and David Lee are all out, while backup Devin Harris has been trying to play through a torn ligament in his hand. Raymond Felton does remain a bright spot for the Mavs, he had 21 points and a playoff-high 11 boards in the Game 2 victory. It’s time for the Thunder to lay the hammer down, they’ll be out to atone for their atrocious performance in Game 2. Kevin Durant had one of the worst games of his entire career, missing 26 of 33 shots and committing seven turnovers. Suffice it to say, I simply can’t see KD putting up two straight duds. Also note that before its upset win in Game 2, Dallas had allowed an average of 111.6 points while dropping the first five games vs. the Thunder this season. I think the embarrassing setback is just what Oklahoma City needed, a kick in the butt and a wake up call for everyone. Look for the deeper, more skilled team to pull away down the stretch for the cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-16 | Hornets v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 103-115 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Miami Heat (7:00 EST). Miami has won five straight playoff games vs. the Hornets, including a 123-91 beatdown in Game 1 of this series. Keep your eyes on Luol Deng, who had 31 points in the victory, while big man Hassan Whiteside was 9 of 11 for 21 points while grabbing 11 boards and blocking three shots. It was a franchise record for playoff points for Miami, which would go on to finish by shooting 57.6 percent. Charlotte has struggled in South Beach losing 15 of its last 16 there, while Miami has won seven in a row at home and 13 of 15 since the All-Star break. I’ll also point out that Charlotte is a poor 6-7 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest, while Miami is 8-4 ATS in the same position. There’s no way that the Heat come into this one complacent, look for the home side to play a focused and disciplined game once again and to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-16 | Celtics +6 v. Hawks | Top | 72-89 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is the over Celtics/Hawks (7:05 EST). Boston lost its second-leading scorer in Avery Bradley for likely the rest of its first-round playoff series after he severely sprained his right hamstring in Game 1. Bradley averaged 22.2 points, but the bigger loss comes on the defensive end as he was clearly the team’s best perimeter defender. Jeff Teague and the Hawks will now look to take advantage. Teague finished with 23 points and 12 assists in Game 1’s 102-101 victory, sealing the win with a pair of free throws with five second remaining. Boston won’t be rolling over though obvoiusly, it’s a deep team which had at least nine players that averaged more than seven points this year. Also note that the C’s would beat the Hawks without Bradley in the lineup by a score of 106-93 back on November 13th. I think it’s important to point out that the Celtics have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of six this year as road underdogs in the 3.5 to six points range, while Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in six of ten this season when playing with two days of rest. Looks like we’ll have a wide open affair on our hands today, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-16 | Rockets v. Warriors -13 | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is the Golden State Warriors (10:30 EST). Whether Stephen Curry plays or not, I like the defending champs to once again lay a beatdown on the Rockets in Game 2 after doing so in Game 1. Curry’s status is up in the air after tweaking his ankle in the first half of Game 1’s 104-78 victory: “Steph is a warrior. If he can play, he's definitely going to be out there," Golden State center Festus Ezeli said last night. Shaun Livingston will start if Curry can’t go. While it does obviously change things, the Warriors are such a deep, well-coached and experienced team that they’re going to easily be able to make the short-term adjustment. And remember, Golden State would win at Houston on December 31st without its sharp-shooter in the line-up. Getting consistent bench production throughout the season is a big reason why the Warriors set the all time regular season win record this year. The Rockets will only go so far as guard James Harden will take them. Slow down Harden and you slow down Houston. Harden was held to 7 of 19 shooting and scored just 17 points in Game 1. Harden is one of the best at getting to the charity-stripe, but would not attempt a single free throw in Game 1. iI Curry plays, look for a similar type beatdown. If Steph sits, look for Golden State to rally and to also pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-16 | Hornets +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 91-123 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 4 m | Show |
The first 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the Charlotte Hornets (5:35 EST). These teams are very evenly matched. In fact, they’d both finish with an identical 48-34 record and they’d split their four games this season, each team winning once on the other’s home floor. Both teams were tough defensively, they’d finish with the exact same numbers, holding their opponents to 44 percent from the floor and 33 percent from behind the arc. In their most recent meeting against each other, Charlotte won 109-106, Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker each had 21 points in the victory. The Hornets made a statement in their final regular season game, hammering Orlando 117-103 on Wednesday night, Jeffeson led the charge in that one as well with 27 points. Miami dropped its final game of the regular season, a 98-88 setback to the Celtics. The Heat amazingly had a 35-13 lead at the end of the first quarter, but the C’s would outscore them 60-26 in the second half. I’ll point out that Charlotte is 3-1-1 its last five at South Beach. In a game which I think will come down to the wire, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-16 | Mavs +12 v. Thunder | Top | 70-108 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is the Dallas Mavericks (9:35 EST). Dirk Nowitzki is 37 years old and he leads the Dallas Mavericks with 18.3 PPG. Nowitzki and the Mavs beat OKC in the 2011 Western Conference finals on their way to the NBA title. The Thunder would then sweep Dallas in the first round the following season on their way to the NBA Finals. Oklahoma City took all four regular season matchups between the teams and while I think the Thunder will ultimately take this series, I believe that Dallas can keep it a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe (in Game 1 anyways). The Mavericks made some late season tempo changes, slowing the pace down, which led to them winning seven of their final nine games and never allowing more than 98 points in that span. The Thunder of course will be looking to push the pace of this one from the outset, but will see a bit of a different Dallas team than it did in its four wins in the regular season. I think it’s important to note that Dallas was 32-25 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest, while Oklahoma City was just 22-31 ATS in the same position. I think the Mavs new found dedication to the defensive side of the ball keeps them in this one late and allows us to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-13-16 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -16 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is the Golden State Warriors (10:30 EST). If you’re watching this game, then you know what’s at stake. The Warriors are coming off their 72nd win of the season in San Antonio as an underdog and now have a chance to break the 1994 Bulls’ record with one more in front of the home town crowd. The Grizzlies on the other hand have lost nine of their last ten, including a listless 110-84 setback at the Clippers just last night. After the Grizz took the Warriors to the brink in Golden State’s 100-99 win in Memphis just last week, there’s no way that the home side will be taking their wounded, but potentially dangerous opponent for granted this evening. I think it’s important to note that the Grizzlies are just 19-20 ATS on the road this year and only 28-29 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while the Warriors are 23-11 AATS in their last 34 when playing with two days of rest. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-16 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 84-110 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK is the LA Clippers (10:35 EST). LA is rolling to end the regular season, it’s in fourth spot in the West and has won five straight overall. The Clippers may face the Grizzlies in the first round, so I’m expecting the home side to send a loud and clear message to the wounded visitors tonight. Despite losing 12 of its last 15, Memphis has secured a postseason spot while playing without stars Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. Memphis comes to town off a tough 100-99 setback to Golden State on Saturday and is primed for a classic letdown tonight. And with a game tomorrow night in Golden State, where the defending champs will be looking to win a record 73 games this season, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead to that one. The Clippers have won nine of ten, most recently coming off a 98-91 victory over Dallas on Sunday in which Blake Griffin went for 17 points, 11 boards and seven assists. LA has already stated that it will rest its starters on Wednesday in Phoenix, meaning that Griffin, JJ Reddick, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan will so see plenty of time tonight. No need to over-think this one, a great spot wager, I’m expecting a double-digit victory. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is the Atlanta Hawks (7:30 EST). These teams enter this one with identical 47-32 records. Each is playing well right now, the C’s have won four straight, while the Hawks have taken 11 of their last 14. With Miami and Charlotte just one game behind them for third and fourth spot in the East and with the coveted home court advantage in the first round on the line, both obviously have something to play for tonight. I simply feel that home court advantage can not be overlooked in this case and think it’ll be a deciding factor once the final horn sounds. Atlanta will be confident, it’s taken two of three in the season series already, with five players averaging double figures in the victories. The Celtics have just two players averaging in double figures in the three games vs. ATL. The Hawks come in with plenty of momentum as well after beating the Raptors 95-87 on Thursday, holding Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to a total of 32 points on 13 of 39 shooting. Keep your eyes on Atlanta’s Jeff Teague, who had 23 points in the win over Toronto and who has shot better than 48 percent over his last five games. And note that the Hawks have dialed up the pressure of late, they’re 3-1 on this current homestand and have held every opponent on it to below 40 percent shooting after limiting the Raptors just 38.1. I think it’s important to point out as well that Boston is just 5-10 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU wins, while Atlanta is 6-2 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-16 | Raptors +6 v. Hawks | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is the Toronto Raptors (8:05 EST). Toronto is almost assuredly going to be slotted into the No. 2 spot in the East, but will still be looking to finish the season strong and to send a statement by completing a series sweep of the Hawks: “The only thing we do is focus on us, just us, and finishing out these last five games," Raptors’ forward Patrick Patterson assessed last night. "Treating them like playoff games and staying focused." This does not sound like a team that’s going to take it easy, but rather one which looks to stay focused and enter the postseason on a surge. Keep your eyes on DeMar DeRozan, who has averaged 28 points in Toronto’s two wins over Atlanta this year and who has scored at least 26 in three straight games. DeRozan and Kyle Lowry didn’t even play in Saturday’s 102-95 setback at San Antonio on Saturday and the Raptors would then follow that up with a solid 96-90 victory over Charlotte on Tuesday. DeRozan had 26 and Lowry chipped in 21. The Hawks have won eight of ten at home, but come into this one off a deflating OT loss to the Cavaliers on Friday and an uninspiring 103-90 win over Phoenix on Tuesday in which they needed to overcome a 13-point deficit in the third quarter. Atlanta likes to force turnovers and create points that way, but Toronto has averaged just 13 total in the three meetings this year. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by the outright win, I like the Raptors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and comfortably cover. Good luck…Larry |
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04-06-16 | Nets +15 v. Wizards | Top | 103-121 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker Error is the Brooklyn Nets (7:05 EST). The Nets will be without the services of starters Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez after the team shut them both down following Sunday’s 106-87 setback to New Orleans. Keep your eyes on Sean Kilpatrick, he’s averaged 13.6 points over the past 17 games: "It's going to be hard, but that's when guys, especially on the bench, just have to step it up," assessed Kilpatrick of his team. "Now that everyone is getting more so an opportunity to play with those two being out, it gives, especially the fours and fives, an opportunity to show what they got." But if you think that Brooklyn is going to tank its remaining games so as to try and get a better draft pick, you’d better think again. In fact, the Nets have zero incentive to throw any of these contests with their lottery pick headed to Boston. Playing spoiler will be motivation for Brooklyn, who will look to hand the Wizards a final blow to their hopes, as one more loss will cement the team’s exclusion from the playoffs. Wizards’ star Bradley Beal has struggled down the stretch, three times he’s been held to single digits in at least 29 minutes over his last seven games, while averaging 22 points in the other four (and note, Beal has been a major liability defensively, as Washington has given up 112.6 points per 100 possessions when he’s been on the floor over the last seven). I think it’s important to note that the Nets are 7-4 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest, while the Wizards are just 15-19 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more. This is a few too many points, play on Brooklyn. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-16 | Spurs v. Jazz +3 | Top | 88-86 | Win | 102 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE MONTH is the Utah Jazz (9:05 EST). San Antonio is trying to secure the first ever unbeaten home season in NBA history and because of that, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is expected to rest the core of his lineup when his team visits Utah on Tusday night. The Spurs now have little to play for with just a hand full of games remaning, they’ll finish in second place in the West, so avoiding injury and maintaining the win streak in front of the home town crowd take precedence. Also note that San Antonio has a game vs. Golden State up next, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors looking ahead to that much bigger game. The Jazz on the other hand are battling the Mavs and Rockets for the West’s final two postseason berths. The Jazz come in with momentum as well after beating the Suns 101-86 on Sunday, Gordon Hayward led the way with 22 points, while his team would go on to force Phoenix into 8 of 27 shooting from 3-point land and 21 turnovers which led to 26 points. Note that the Jazz are second only to the Spurs in points allowed per game (92.6 compared to 95.9), but they’ve been even better during a 10-3 season ending surge, allowing just 88.9. Utah also plays with triple revenge after dropping all three meetings in the series this season. A great situational play, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -12 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker Error is the Golden State Warriors (8:05 EST). Their shocking 109-106 home loss, which snapped their 54-game streak in Golden State could not have come at a better time for the Warriors. The defending champions needed a wake up call heading into the final stretch of the regular season and they can now refocus and take out their frustrations on the Blazers, who come into this one off four straight victories, including a big one over Miami just last night. Note though that Portland has won seven straight and 11 of 12 at home, but has dropped eight of nine when playing as the visitor. Golden State still wants to beat the Chicago Bulls all time wins record, but can ill afford to drop anymore. Keep your eyes on the Warriors’ Klay Thompson, who was 8 of 13 from 3-point range in a 37-point effort over the Blazers on March 11th after going 7 of 10 from distance while scoring 36 in a 128-108 rout on January 8th. And that’s bad news for a Blazers’ defensive unit which has allowed 118.9 points per game and 44.9 percent shooting on 3-pointers during its current road slide. I think it’s important to point out that Portland is just 8-9 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days, while Golden State is 4-2 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. I’m banking on the home side bouncing back large today, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-16 | Pacers -11 v. 76ers | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is the Indiana Pacers (7:35 EST). Indiana is holding on for dear life to the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference rand will be eager to atone for its 114-94 loss to Orlando on Thursday. The Pacers have struggled defensively of late, yielding 108.3 points over their last four, which is 7.8 worse than their season average. A game vs. the lowly 76ers though is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track as Philadelphia is one of the league’s worst offensive teams. The 76ers shot just 36.7 percent in last night’s 100-91 loss in Charlotte, going just ten of 39 from beyond the arc. Also note that the Pacers have limited Philadelphia to an average of just 78 PPG over the last three in the series. Keep your eys on Indiana’s Paul George, who is 6 of 15 from behind the 3-point line in two games vs. the Sixers this year. I think it’s important to point out that Philadelphia is 0-11 ATS this year as a home dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range, while Indiana is 5-3 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-16 | Celtics v. Blazers -3 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is the Portland Trailblazers (10:05 EST). Both Boston and Portland are going to be playing in the postseason, but each still has a lot to play for. Boston is looking to secure the fourth spot in the East and home court advantage in the first round but has gone just 4-5 since March 11th while averaging just 100.7 points. With a game tomorrow night at Golden State, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors coming in a bit distracted to this one. And that’s music to Portland’s ears, it’s looking to win a fifth straight on its home floor, a place where it’s averaged 114.4 points over its last ten. Keep your eyes on the Blazers’ Damian Lillard who is averaging 25.4 PPG this season, both he and second leading scorer CJ McCollum (20.7) would sit out the fourth quarter of a 105-93 win over Sacramento on Monday and will benefit greatly from the extra two days off between games. Portland also plays with revenge, after winning the previous four, the Blazers have now lost two straight in the series. I think it’s important to note that Boston is just 3-7 ATS this year when playing with two days rest, while Portland is 9-3 ATS this season in the same position. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-16 | Nets v. Cavs -14 | Top | 87-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is the Cavaliers (7:05 EST). Cleveland let LeBron James have a night off and the Cavaliers would let a 20-point lead slip away in a 106-100 home loss to Houston on Tuesday. The Cavs are 1-3 without King James in the lineup this year, but will look for a quick rebound tonight at Quicken Loans Arena, where they are 30-7 this season. And with James back in the line-up, Cleveland definitely has to be liking its chances as he averaged 29.0 points, 8.8 assists and 8.5 boards, while also posting two triple-doubles in four games last week. A couple of bright spots in the setback to the Rockets was the play of Kyrie Irving, who had 31 points, while Kevin Love would go on to post his fourth straight double-double. Cleveland will also be out to atone for an inexcusable 104-95 loss at Brooklyn last Thursday. Brooklyn has lost five straight on the Cavs’ home floor and is coming off a brutal 139-105 loss at Orlando on Tuesday. Note that it was the second-most points allowed in a non-overtime game this year by the Nets, who would go on to let the Magic shoot over 61 percent. Nets forward Thomas Robinson summed it up the best for his struggling team: "I think guys are worried that there's not much time left, we're not fighting for anything," Thomas assessed. "No knock on our team, but mentally it's tough to keep fighting in games and showing up every night the way things are going for us, and the end of the season being so close." Everything points to a lop-sided destruction, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-16 | Warriors v. Jazz +5 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The third 10* pick from my Superstar Triple Play is the Jazz (9:05 EST). Golden State has only lost seven games this year, but playing the second of a back-to-back has been difficult on it at times. Utah has already lost three in a row to the defending champions this season, but it comes in off its best offensive performance of the year after trouncing the Lakers 123-75 on Monday. The Jazz were led by Rodney Hood, who was 8 of 9 from three-point land, leading the charge on the team’s franchise best 17 3-pointers on the night. Utah has looked a lot better offensively of late, averaging 10.7 3-pointers and shooting over 40 percent from distance over an 8-2 stretch. The Warriors are now chasing history and come in off a 102-94 victory over Washington at home last night. Note that the defending champs weren’t at their best offensively though, finishing 43.7 percent from the floor. I think it’s important to point out that Golden State is in fact just 4-6 ATS this season after playing three consecutive home games, while Utah is 19-13 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Would I be shocked by an outright upset? Of course not. That said, let’s grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-16 | Suns v. Wolves -6 | Top | 116-121 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). The Wolves averaged just over 113 PPG on 50.6 percent shooting over a 3-3 stretch, which was 11.7 points more than in their first 66 games. Minnesota though is coming off a 93-84 loss to Utah on Saturday, Ricky Rubio would lead the way with 23 points in the setback. A date vs. the Suns is just what the doctor ordered to return to form on the offensive end though as Phoenix has allowed an average of 114.5 points in its last four road games. Also note that the Wolves are averaging 114.8 points in four straight wins in this series while playing in front of the home town crowd. Phoenix comes in with zero momentum after going 0-2 over the weekend, the most recent was a 102-99 loss to Boston Saturday (note that the Suns are shooting just 25.4 percent from 3-point range in their last two). Also note that Phoenix is expected to be without the services of big men Tyson Chandler and Jon Leuer. I think it’s important to point out as well that Phoenix is just 2-5 ATS this year as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Minneosta is 4-2 ATS as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. I like the way Minnesota has been playing lately and expect it to make the most of this favorable situation, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-16 | Magic v. Heat -8.5 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker Error is Miami Heat (8:05 EST). Miami has to be liking it chances that it can bounce back here after falling 112-88 at San Anotnio on Wednesday, finishing with its lowest point total in 27 games by only making 7 of 12 free throws while also committing 15 turnovers. And that’s because Miami has only lost to Orlando once in the last four years. All signs point to a lop-sided destruction in this one. And with three matchups vs. the Magic in their last 11 games, I expect the Heat to make a statement in tonight’s contest. Orlando has been atrocious on the defensive end of late, allowing the opposition to average 110.5 points on 48.8 percent shooting during a 5-13 stretch. "We've just got to come out and take care of business," Miami veteran Dwyane Wade assessed last night. "Don't think too far ahead, play each game for what it's worth and what it is and keep going from there." Keep your eyes on Wade today, his 27.2 career scoring average vs. Orlando is shy of only his 27.3 mark against the Warriors. The Magic’s playoff hopes are very slim after a 2-9 slide leaves them with four teams to leap-frog. Orlando comes in off a 118-112 loss at Detroit, the Magic would shoot just 39.8 percent in the setback (note that the Pistons became the fourth team in the last seven games to shoot at least 50.0 percent against Orlando, finishing at 53.8). Also note that Orlando has lost five straight away from friendly confines. Miami needs to respond immediately after the poor effort vs. the Spurs, expect the home side to make the most of this favorable matchup and lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-16 | Bulls v. Knicks +5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is the New York Knicks (7:35 EST). New York is looking to sweep this home-and-home set after Kristaps Porzingis scored a season-high 29 points in yesterday’s 115-107 victory for Chicago, one which snapped the Bulls three-game win streak. After a sluggish stretch, Knicks’ rookie Porzingis is once again gaining steam to end the season as he’s averaged 20.7 points over his last three games. Chicago continues to slide, its now in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, one game behind the Pacers and Pistons. The Knicks domianted the glass last night by a 53-34 margin and are primed to build off that one in front of the home town crowd. New York ended a three-game slide, as Carmelo Anthony returned to pour in 24 points after missing a game with a migraine: "It feels good to get this one on the back-to-back, home-and-home against the same team," Anthony assessed afterwards. "If you can win the first one, then you can go home and have that momentum in your favor." The Bulls have lost nine of their last ten on the road and play eight of their final 12 away from friendly confines. I think Anthony and the Knicks kick this shattered Chicago team while its down and while I would not be surprised by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-16 | Mavs v. Blazers -6 | Top | 103-109 | Push | 0 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
The second 10* play in my Superstar Triple Play is the Blazers (10:05 EST). The Mavericks were mired in a 1-7 slump before managing to pull away for a 132-120 win over the Blazers on Sunday. No need to overthink this one, it’s payback time for Portland, who looks to avenge that setback and take care of business on its home floor. Dallas would need super-human efforts from aging stars Dirk Nowitzki (who had 50 points) and Deron Williams (31 points and 16 assists) to secure the win and suffice it to say, I simply don’t see that duo being nearly as effective in this one. Dallas suffered some bad news on Tuesday as well, as Chandler Parsons will now likely undergo season-ending knee surgery. Portland has to be feeling pretty confident that it can bounce-back, the Mavs are just 15-18 on the road this season, including having lost seven of their last ten away from friendly confines. The Blazers can empathize with the Mavs’ road woes, they’ve lost seven of eight as the visitor, but they’re 13-3 their last 16 at home. Star Damian Lillard had 26 points in the setback to the Mavericks on Sunday and he’ll be looking to help his team avenge three straight setbacks in this series, including a 115-112 OT loss in Portland on December 1st. Note that Dallas is just 3-8 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest, while Portland is 9-2 ATS in the same position this year and also 23-15 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. This is a great situational play, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-16 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is the Atlanta Hawks (8:05 EST). Both teams have been playing great of late, but the Hawks have been near unbeatable on their home court and I don’t see that trend being broken tonight. Atlanta has won 10 of 12 since a 5-10 slide and now sits atop the division and third in the conference. Big man Al Horford had 22 points in a 109-97 victory over visiting Houston on Saturday. Horford has averaged 18.5 poitns while hitting 10 of 21 from 3-point land over his last six games. Atlanta has averaged a whopping 114.3 points in its last three of a five-game unbeaten streak (and note, it’s been almost as good on the defensive end of the floor, limiting the opposition to just 91.8 points on 39.2 percent shooting over its last 12). And that doesn’t bode well for the Wizards, who have given up an average of 113 points, while managing just 94.7 of their own over a three-game road losing streak in this series. This won’t be a cake-walk by any means, Washington has finally started to show some life and comes into this one having won four in a row to move within 1.5 games of the eighth spot. But in the opener of a home and home set between the clubs, I’m expecting the red hot Hawks to make the most of the friendly surroundings and to continue their long-term dominance of this opponent. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-20-16 | Celtics -10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 120-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
The second 10* play in my Superstar Triple Play is the Boston Celtics (6:05 EST). Boston will be desperate today as it looks to avoid its longest losing streak of the year, most recently falling 105-91 to the Raptors on Friday, a setback which dropped the team to sixth in the conference and 8.5 back in the division. A date vs. 9-60 Philadelphia is just what the doctor ordered for the B’s as the 76ers have lost four in a row and 17 of 18. Boston has to be feeling pretty confiden it can bounce back today too as it’s won seven straight in the series. Keep your eyes on Boston’s Isaiah Thomas, who has shot over 50 percent while averaging 25.7 points in three previous victories over Philadelphia this year. Without rookie center Jahlil Okafor in the lineup, the 76ers have struggled, especially on the glass, most recently getting out-rebounded 63-36 in Friday’s 111-97 setback to the Thunder. I think the conditions are right for a blowout for the visitors, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-16 | Wolves +8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker Error is on the Timberwolves (8:05 EST). Houston’s up and down season continues, after blowing out Memphis 130-81 on Monday, the Rockets would then fall apart in a 122-106 setback to the Clippers on Wednesday, allowing LA to shoot over 56 percent from the floor. Unbelievably, the opponent field goal percentage increase of 26.9 between the two games is the league’s highest in consecutive contests since early 2013. The Rockets have now lost two of their last three with opponents shooting almost 55 percent in the the two setbacks while also eclipsing 120 points in the process. Still more poor stats reveal that they’ve surrendered at least 110 points in ten of their last 22 and opponents are shooting 50.3 percent in 12 losses during that span. Minnesota has been playing a lot better of late and it’ll be out to avenge five straight losses in the series, including a 107-104 setback to Houston on January 13th. The Wolves have won two of three to open a four game trip, Zach LaVine poured in 28 points in each of his last two games and had six three-pointers in his team’s 114-108 win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday. With a short two-game road trip starting tomorrow night in Atlanta and finishing against rival Oklahoma City on Monday, it’s not too hard to imagine the inconsistent Rockets getting caught looking ahead to the more difficult part of their schedule. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-16 | Knicks +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-121 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker Error is on the New York Knicks. The Knicks will end up being another speed-bump in the Warriors epic home win streak, but I think the visitors can keep this one closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. It’s hard not to imagine the Warriors in some small way looking ahead to their three-game road trip which starts on Friday night with a stop in Dallas, before then taking on the Spurs on Saturday, followed by a trip to Minnesota on Monday. The Golden State/San Antonio matchup will be a highly anticipated event, as the Spurs have a monster win streak of their own on their home court and will be out to avenge a very embarrassing earlier setback to the defending champs. It’s interesting to note though that New York has done a suprisingly good job in defending the Warriors’ Steph Curry, limiting him to “just” 22.0 points in the last three meetings. The Knicks up-and-down season continues, so far they’ve split the first four of a six-game trip, including Sunday’s 90-87 win over the Lakers. Carmelo Anthony had a game-high 26 points for New York. I think it’s important to point out that the Knicks have performed well in this spot for bettors this season, going 14-8 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State is just 2-5 ATS this season after playing three consecutive home games. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-16 | Mavs v. Cavs -9.5 | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH is on the Cleveland Cavaliers. This is a very important game for both teams. Cleveland though is about start a very difficult part of its schedule and because of that, I’m expecting the home side to come out ultra-focused tonight as it looks to get things started off on the “right foot.” The Cavs play three games in four days and this is the first. Cleveland is back home after a successful Western road swing, going 3-1, unable to complete the sweep after falling 94-85 to Utah on Monday after it had trounced the Clippers 114-90 the night before. Cleveland won’t be taking its opponent lightly today as it would need 17 3-pointers to help it earn a 110-107 OT win over the Mavericks on January 12th behind 27 points from LeBron James. The Cavaliers are among the best in the league with a 35.8 percentage on 3-balls. Dallas is pretty adept at defending the three-ball, it ranks in the Top 10 in that category and it comes in off a 107-96 win at Charlotte on Monday, a victory which snapped a season-high five game slide. Chandler Parsons had 24 points and nine boards, while veteran Dirk Nowitzki added 23 and 11. Dallas is playing for its playoff life right now, but I don’t think that’s going to be enough. The pressure to win is much greater in Cleveland and with a daunting part of its schedule on deck, I think that the home side will control this contest from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-16 | 76ers v. Nets -7 | Top | 114-131 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker Error is on the Brooklyn Nets. Philadelphia has won just two games out of its last 20. Both came against the Nets. Suffice it to say, it’s payback time! Most recently the 76ers pulled away for the 95-89 win over Brooklyn on Friday, which was after beating it 103-98 on February 6th. Philadelphia hasn’t taken this season series in over five years and I am not expecting that trend to get broken today. The 76ers are just 3-38 against the East and looked horrible in Saturday’s 125-111 loss to Detroit in which it allowed the Pistons to shoot 53.8 percent. Brooklyn will be looking to avoid a fifth straight loss after falling 109-100 to Milwaukee on Sunday, Brook Lopez continues to shine and he’d go on to register his sixth straight game with at least 20 points. The Nets actually shot 55.7 percent for their second-best effort this season and I think the team can carry that momentum over into this one. Make sure to keep your eyes on Lopez, who has averaged 24.5 points and shot nearly 59 percent over his past six games. The oddmakers are a little off on this one, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-14-16 | Wolves v. Suns -1 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK is the Phoenix Suns (10:05 EST). The Wolves are set up for a classic letdown here after Ricky Rubio’s 3-pointer with 0.2 seconds left sent his team to a 99-96 win over the Thunder on Friday. Minnesota would get season bests from a few different players, including Gorgui Dieng, who in fact had a career-best 25 points, while the Wolves would collectively go on to force a season-high 24 turnovers. Suffice it to say, I don’t expect these players to be as “hyped” for tonight’s game vs. the lowly Suns. Phoenix may have lost 33 of 38 overall and 16 of 19 on its own floor, but it took the defending champs down to the wire in its last game, eventually falling 123-116 in Golden State on Saturday (after leading by ten late in the third quarter). Suns’ guard Brandon Knight had a career-high seven 3-pointers and scored 30 points total in his first start in two months. Note that Knight was key in his team’s 108-101 home win over the T-Wolves on December 30th, scoring 25 points and knocking down seven 3-pointers (Knight had 30 points in a 117-87 defeat at Minnesota on January 17th). I think the home side builds on its latest performance and catches this young Wolves team a bit complacent after its big win. Play on Phoenix. Good luck…Larry |
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03-13-16 | Pacers v. Hawks -4.5 | Top | 75-104 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:05 EST). Atlanta has dropped two of three vs. Indiana so far this season and will be looking to even the score tonight. The Hawks will also be looking to hold on to their slim lead over the Pacers in the Eastern Conference standings, sitting 1.5 games ahead in the No. 6 seed. Indiana has been getting balanced scoring from Paul George and Monta Ellis during its recent win skein, but the Hawks have been getting the job done with some tough defensive play. Atlanta comes in off a 95-83 win over the Grizzlies on Saturday, limiting Memphis to just 34.7 perecnt shooting and 6 of 23 from behind the arc. The Hawks continue to get production from guard Jeff Teague, who is averaging 18.5 points while making 47.6 percent of his 3-point shots over his last four games. Indiana is primed for a letdown here after yesterday’s big road win over the Mavericks and while the Hawks played on Saturday as well, home floor advantage can not be overlooked at this time of the season in the second game of a back-to-back scenario. The situation favors the home side in this one, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-12-16 | Rockets +5 v. Hornets | Top | 109-125 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Rockets (7:05 EST). Charlotte hasn’t won seven straight in 14 years and I think it’ll have a hard time accomplishing that feat against the suddenly surging Rockets. Charlotte won its sixth game in a row on Friday, 118-103 over Detroit, despite getting just 16 points from dynamic point guard Kemba Walker, who may finally be starting to slow down after posting four straight 30-plus point efforts in a row. Houston would hold Walker to just 14 points on 3-of-10 shooting in a 102-95 victory on December 21st and comes in on a win streak of its own, last night’s 102-98 victory at Boston was its third in a row. James Harden led the way in that one with 32 points, with Michael Beasley finished with 18. I think it’s important to note that Houston is 7-4 ATS this year as a road dog of 3.5 to six points, while Charlotte is only 9-12 ATS in its last 21 as a home favorite in the same points range. Houston is playing extremely well right now and I have a hard time seeing the Hornets slowing down Harden. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright victory, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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03-11-16 | Blazers +13 v. Warriors | Top | 112-128 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker Error is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:35 EST). Of Golden State’s six losses this year, the 137-105 setback in Portland a couple weeks ago was by far the most lop-sided. Blazers’ star Damian Lillard would go on to score a career-high 51 points, seven assists and six steals, snapping the Warriors 11-game win streak. Portland now looks to ruin the Warriors 46 game home win streak with another big effort. Portland was particuarly effective in slowing down the Warriors from behind the 3-point line, holding them to just 12 of 34, while going 17 for 30 itself. So far the Blazers are the only team to top 125 points and shoot over 52 percent from the floor against the defending champions. This is a tricky matchup for the Warriors, as the Blazers do in fact rank among the league’s top five in 3’s made (669) and percentage (36.3). Note that CJ McCollum has hit 51.8 percent from 3-point land over his last 11 outings for Portland. I think it’s also important to point out that reigning MVP Steph Curry has been inconsistent this month, going just 16 of 47 from 3-point range. There’s no way that I’m going to call for another outright upset here, but I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Toronto Raptors. This is the end of a five-game road trip for the Hawks, who spent most of it on the West coast. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here today, especially after winning the last three straight, including an impressive 107-97 win over the Clippers on Saturday, followed by Tuesday’s 91-84 win over Utah. Toronto will be looking to take advantage of this tired and complacent Atlanta side, a team that it already beat 96-86 on December 2nd. Kyle Lowry would outscore Jeff Teague 31-11 in that one. Toronto comes in with plenty of momentum as well after it came back from a 16-point halftime deficit in Tuesday’s 104-99 win over Brooklyn. Lowry finished with 23 points and nine assists, while Toronto would go on to hold a decisive 40-29 edge on the boards. And that’s bad news for a Hawks team which has a -4.3 rebound margin for the NBA’s second-worst mark (the Raptors held a 50-43 advantage in the first game). Also note that Toronto has won 13 of its last 14 in front of the home town crowd while averaging over 107 PPG. And finally note that Atlanta is also just 11-14 ATS this season following a non-conference game, while the Raptors are 6-4 ATS following a divisional contest. This spread is a little low. Lay the points. Good luck..Larry |
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03-09-16 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder blew a big lead vs. the Clippers last week and will be out to avenge that lapse in concentration. Oklahoma City is just 3-6 since the All-Star break, a slide which has allowed the Clippers to pull within 1.5 games of it for third place in the Western Conference. The Thunder though could easily have posted a much better record over that stretch, but they’ve been giving up late leads much too often of late, allowing Golden State to come back twice in the latter stages, while also stumbling against the Clippers after leading by as many as 22 in last Wednesday’s 103-98 loss. LA comes to town off a satisfying 109-90 win over the Mavericks on Monday, but note that it’s just 8-12 ATS this year after a win by ten points or more. OKC has not done well for bettors this year, it’s posted a negative record in almost every single ATS statistical category there is. However, this is in fact a spot in which the Thunder have performed well in this season, going 6-4 ATS when playing with two or more days rest. Enough is enough as far as OKC is concerned. With a chance to avenge last week’s loss to the Clippers and to erase a string of inconsistent play, I’ll recommend to lay the points in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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03-07-16 | Clippers v. Mavs +2 | Top | 109-90 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Western-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK in the Dallas Mavericks (8:35 EST). Dallas’ next ten games come against some pretty good teams and going 5-5 would be a real accomplishment for it. With little room to slip up, I expect the home side to leave everything on the floor tonight and to find a way to secure a victory. Dallas will be desperate today to snap a two-game slide. LA also comes in off a loss, a 107-97 setback to Atlanta on Saturday in which it was held to just 42 second-half points. Dallas would overcome an eight-point first quarter deficit to beat the Clippers 118-108 on November 11th and I expect a similar final result here. Note that in that one Mavs’ veteran Dirk Nowitzki had 21 points, while LA guard Chis Paul was held to just 11 points on 2 of 11 shooting (note that Paul has averaged just 10.3 points and 7.7 assists while shooting 37 percent in his last three vs. the Mavs). Home floor advantage has been a very real factor whenever these teams have gotten together, they’ve split two games so far this year with each taking care of business on its own court. Note that the Mavs have taken the last two played in Dallas by a total of 40 points, while shooting over 58 percent from the floor in the process. No reason not to think this pattern will continue today. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-16 | Thunder -7 v. Bucks | Top | 104-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH is on Oklahoma City (3:35 EST). Kevin Durant and the Thunder are assured a spot in the postseason this year, but Oklahoma City (42-20) has admittedly struggled since the All Star break: "We've definitely got to get it under control," assessed Durant of his team’s recent issues. "I'm not happy with the way we're playing. Obviously we want to win, but this is where you see what you're made of. Our backs are against the wall right now as far as where we want to be as a team." The Thunder have gone just 2-6 during a tough post-All-Star break schedule, including two games against the defending champion Warriors. Durant though continues to do his part, averaging 31.6 points and 11.4 boards over his last five games. A date vs. the Bucks is just what the doctor ordered for the Thunder to start reversing their fortunes, they’ve won six straight vs. Milwaukee with Durant in the line-up, including a 131-123 victory on December 29th. Durant’s side-kick Russell Westbrook has averaged 27 points in his last three vs. the Bucks. Milwaukee (26-36) of course continues to struggle with consistency from game-to-game and seems set up for a letdown here after pulling away for a 116-101 home win over Minnesota on Friday. I’ll point out that OKC is 4-2 ATS in its last six following a loss by ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 2-6 ATS following a victory by ten points or more. The Thunder have gotten the wrong end of the stick over the last two weeks, but finally make up for it here. Lay the points as the “better” team pulls away for the easy cover down the stretch! Good luck…Larry |
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03-05-16 | Rockets v. Bulls +1.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker Error is on the Chicago Bulls (8:35 EST). With the expected return of star Jimmy Butler to the lineup, I think the Bulls will find a way to secure the victory today. Another loss would drop Chicago to under .500 after 60 games for the first time since 2010. Butler is not only Chicago’s leading scorer, but he’s also one of the league’s premier defenders. He’ll be tasked in slowing down Rockets’ super star James Harden. Houston comes in off a “lucky” victory, as it was just 3 of 35 from 3-point range, becoming the fist team in league history to make less than four 3’s on 30 or more attempts in the 100-95 victory over the Pelicans on Wednesday (Harden was just 1 of 9 from behind the 3-point line). Both teams have clearly had disappointing season’s, but the situational factors are working more in favor of the home side today, as note that Chicago has lost five of seven in the series: "There are no excuses," Bulls’ guard Derrick Rose assessed last night. "The season is not over. We still have a shot to be in the playoffs. This is foreign ground to a lot of us. We've got to find ways to make it up." I think it’s important to point out that Houston is just 4-9 ATS this season following a divisional contest, while Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after three or more consecutive SU losses. With a game in Toronto tomorrow night, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead to that one. Play on the home side. Good luck…Larry |
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03-02-16 | Bulls v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout winner is on Orlando at 7:00 ET. Both clubs lost high-scoring games yesterday. Playing at home, the back-to-back spot will favor the Magic. Orlando is a somewhat respectable 6-5 ATS when playing its second game in two nights. Chicago is only 4-7 ATS when doing so. The Magic are 9-7 ATS after scoring 105 or more. The Bulls are 8-12 ATS after scoring 105 or more. The Bulls eked out a five point win when they hosted the Magic at the very beginning of the season. The Magic covered the spread in that game though. When factoring in that result, the Bulls are only 1-11 ATS against Southeast Division opponents. Bulls are also 11-17 ATS as dogs and Orlando is 12-8 ATS as a favorite. The Magic have covered three staight home games in this series and the Bulls, 0-6 their last six on the road, are currently a shell of their former selves. With the exeption of the 76ers, who they crushed, the Magic have faced some tough opposition (GS, SA, IND etc) here lately. The Butler-less Bulls no longer fall into that category and Orlando happily kicks them while they're down. Good Luck...Larry |
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